China's GDP increased by SIX TIMES over the last 10 years

[Chinese-Dragon]

The Nominal GDP data in this wiki link has been taken from the IMF's WEO Database.

List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


China's GDP in 2003: $1.6 trillion

Ten years later -> China's GDP in 2013: $9.3 trillion


Consistent "double-digit" growth rates (and the strong appreciation of the Yuan) allowed us to increase our GDP by six times, in the span of only one decade.

Now our growth has slowed down, from an average of 10%, to around an average of 7.5%, which means we will still multiply our economy, just at a slower rate.

Due to the law of compound interest, 7.5% average growth is quite a lot less than 10% average growth. However, we should still be able to increase the size of our economy by three times in the next ten years at least, compared to the sixfold increase of the past decade.

That should easily take us to the #1 position in terms of nominal GDP (larger than 2nd place by a big margin), as long as we can maintain at least a 7% growth rate over the next decade. That is the hard part, but I am confident we can do it.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Even we halve our growth in this decade, our GDP will still hit 27 trillion USD by 2023.

 

[iam not greek]

The Nominal GDP data in this wiki link has been taken from the IMF's WEO Database.

List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


China's GDP in 2003: $1.6 trillion

Ten years later: China's GDP in 2013: $9.3 trillion


Consistent "double-digit" growth rates (and the strong appreciation of the Yuan) allowed us to increase our GDP by six times, in the span of only one decade.

Now our growth has slowed down, from an average of 10%, to around an average of 7.5%, which means we will still multiply our economy, just at a slower rate.

Due to the law of compound interest, 7.5% average growth is quite a lot less than 10% average growth. However, we should still be able to increase the size of our economy by three times in the next ten years at least, compared to the sixfold increase of the past decade.

That should easily take us to the #1 position in terms of nominal GDP (larger than 2nd place by a big margin), as long as we can maintain at least a 7% growth rate over the next decade. That is the hard part, but I am confident we can do it.

China is the most amazing country after the US. only if China could have more freedom for its citizens, it could become the next United States.

 

[khalifa786]

Chinese are hard working & they have proved it over the time . We have to learn alot from you guyz.
Respect.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China is the most amazing country after the US. only if China could have more freedom for its citizens, it could become the next United States.

The East Asian model of development is to become a developed country first, then political liberalization later.

Also, we do not wish to become the "next United States". The era of superpowers and global hegemony is over, we just want to be China, a developed China.

 

[Huawei]

The way the Renminbi has depreciated over the past month (2.94% depreciation), the Chinese economy would be smaller this year than it was last year in US Dollar terms. The depreciation over the past month has wiped out all the appreciation of last year. That's big.

The only way for Chinese economy to surpass the US economy is by having a stronger Renminbi.

Chinese economy is in big trouble right now with a massive 6 year credit boom (Since 2008) coming to an end and the growth rate indicators doing very poorly. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) are rising for banks and many private businesses are defaulting on their bonds. Property market is cooling rapidly with home prices down AND sales down. This property cooling is causing trouble for banks as many of their loan portfolio is property or property-related such as glass industry, steel industry, furniture industry, aluminium industry, etc.

Property is the core for the Chinese economy as it drives many other large GDP contributing industries like steel, aluminium, copper, iron ore, glass, furniture, automobile, etc. So when property sales fall, other industries suffer.

The other problem is massive overcapacity in many industries (especially state-owned) which means they have to cut back the supply which will further hurt GDP growth.

As all these industries are suffering, the Chinese financial system will come under severe stress as companies cannot pay back their loans as demand wanes. This will cause problems in the banking system and bond yields will rise.

This is why the borrowing rates have gone up which causes more problems for small & medium sized companies as their borrowing costs are getting higher.

All these higher borrowing costs in Renminbi are causing Chinese banks and companies to issue bonds in US dollars (lower borrowing rates) instead of Renminbi (higher borrowing rates). This lack of demand for Renminbi is causing the Renminbi exchange rate to depreciate.

I've never believed in the 'China collapse theory' but you got to be realistic and see the Chinese economy has some big problems to deal with.

Only solution is to accelerate the major economic reform announced during the 3rd Plenum by giving more power to the markets.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I've never believed in the 'China collapse theory' but you got to be realistic and see the Chinese economy has some big problems to deal with.

Only solution is to accelerate the major economic reform announced during the 3rd Plenum by giving more power to the markets.

This is true, we are currently in the midst of a huge problem caused by our massive expansion of credit over the past 5 years.

The best way forward is to accelerate our Economic reforms. The Government is being too cautious at the moment with reforms, they should speed up the process.

In evolution, organisms must adapt or die. Same with economies, they must adapt to survive.

 

[Huawei]

This is true, we are currently in the midst of a huge problem caused by our massive expansion of credit over the past 5 years.

The best way forward is to accelerate our Economic reforms. The Government is being too cautious at the moment with reforms, they should speed up the process.

In evolution, organisms must adapt or die. Same with economies, they must adapt to survive.

Exactly!

Regulation must be cut dramatically. Far too much red tape at central and local governments. Barriers to entry for businesses must be cut. Government approvals must be abolished for useless things that can be decided by the market.

Access to capital must be expanded. That means capital market must be developed. Both Exchange and Over-The-Counter. Without money businesses cannot operate. Cost of capital must be set by the market too. This means developing a deep and liquid bond market and allowing small private banks to open to give some competition to state-owned banks that rarely lend to small & medium enterprises as they are considered risky lending.

Taxes must be reduced for companies and individuals to reduce their burden on production and consumption.

Prices of resources must be set by the market. Cant believe many resources are still set by government. Producers and Consumers must have market-determined prices to reach equilibrium price to know how much to produce as it relates to current demand. This is why there is so much overcapacity in many industries as resource prices are distorted by the government to favour one group over others which gives distorted market signals.

The list of reforms is too long.

But things like fiscal reforms, financial reforms, regulatory reforms and tax reforms are some of the things that must be done pretty soon.

It's all well and good to have plans, but they must be IMPLEMENTED PROPERLY.

Too many meetings (12th 5-year plan, 3rd Plenum, state council meetings, etc) and not enough actions.

The time for meetings are over, the time for IMPLEMENTATION is now!

The economy is slowing and problems are starting to emerge from the old model as reforms were stalled during the 2000's as the reforms of the 1990's gave strong growth in the 2000's which gave rise to complacency from the CPC. But now the big reforms that were already agreed upon at all those various meetings must be implemented before the economy gets into more trouble.

 

[sixth]

Believe it or not, China's economy will collapse under 李克強's government in 5 years.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Believe it or not, China's economy will collapse under 李克強's government in 5 years.

Will you back that up with any analysis or data?

 

[Edison Chen]

Believe it or not, China's economy will collapse under 李克強's government in 5 years.

China's economy already seriously damaged by Wen Jiabao, please. Housing prices increasing started since Wen's term. Now, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are just wiping Wen Jiabao's fucking ***. You never consider the cause and effect, now China's economy is slowing down, it's because we are adjusting from the wrong side to the right side, it's not Li Keqiang's fault, it's Wen Jiabao's fault, he left so many problems behind after his retirement.

Xi Jinping is now dealing with many corrupted interest groups to clear the road to reform, because these groups are a barrier and resistance to reform. Xi Jinping clear the road, and Li Keqiang carry out economy plan.

 

[Koovie]

Hats off, truly a great achievement!

 

[UKBengali]

China won't be able to repeat this over the next 10 years due to slower growth.

However a lot of people are failing to take into account the boost to US GDP due to the fact that it Still has the world's reserve currency. Over the next 10-15 years this will be gradually corrected.

As long as the Chinese keep carrying out the needed reform and there is no major war, then the Chinese economy should surpass the US by 2020 and should accelerate the decline of Western economic power.

 

[LordTyrannus]

China will never surpass USA. Not in economy and also not in Military technology. They only can surpass USA by numbers.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China will never surpass USA. Not in economy and also not in Military technology. They only can surpass USA by numbers.

We will work to prove that wrong, no matter how long it takes.