# Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole



## SQ8

I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:

"Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."

It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester

https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822

They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*

@Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino

Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?

Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.

The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):

*1. Border Skirmish*
Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.

Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.

Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
(Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)

Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
_(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_

*2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.

*Situation*
Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.

*Mission*
Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
PAF Murid
PAF Minhas
PAF Mianwali
PAF Rafiqui
PAF Shahbaz
PAF Faisal
PAF Masroor
In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
_(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _

*3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.

*Situation*
Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
*Mission*
Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)

*4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.

*Situation*
Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.

*Mission*
Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_

*5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.

*Situation*
INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
*Mission*
Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.

*6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.

*Situation*
India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.

*Mission*
Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
_(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_

* 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.

*Situation*
Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.

*Mission*
Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
(Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)

*8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.

*Situation*
China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
*Mission*
Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.

_(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_

*9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
*Situation*
American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
*Mission*
Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
_(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_

*10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_

*Situation*
Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
*Mission*
Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_

*11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
*Situation*
Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
*Mission*
Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
_(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_

*12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
*Situation*
The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
*Mission*
Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.

*13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*

The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.

China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
*Situation*
In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
*Mission*
Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
_(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_

*14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*

In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.

*Situation*
Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
*Mission*
Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
_(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_

*15. Race Against The Clock*
Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
*Situation*
Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
*Mission*
Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes


And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.

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## Indos

SQ8 said:


> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.



I doubt any possible war happen during 2020-2035 period since both countries will focus on developing the economy and avoid any war.

I dont like the war between Pakistan and India and the help from Muslim nations I believe will only happen if Pakistan is in defensive position since if Pakistan in the offensive it means sending military help will only escalate and prolong the war.

*Beyond 2035 scenario*

The first help I believe will be sending MALE UCAV and its operator to Pakistan, and in order to do so need strong enough navy armada to bring them to Pakistan.







And Indonesian PT PAL is designing unmanned submarine where I think in 2035 above we will have many of them inshaAllah. The unmanned submarine will be the next to be send if India doesnt stop its offensive.

If India is lead by crazy and India offensive never stop, Indonesia will likely send KF 21/IFX and their UCAV STEALTH wingman drone (InshaAllah we will develop them).







And Pakistan needs to sell at least 20 nuclear head to Indonesia that can be integrated into submarine missiles, this will also give financial help to Pakistan and in the other hand give assurance that there will be nuclear war if India nuke Indonesia.

--------------------------------------------------------------

All of this will only happen under Indonesia being lead by Nationalist Religius-Islamist coalition, this coalition has ruled democratic Indonesia in several period (1998-1999-Habibie), (1999-2002 Abdurrahman Wahid), (2004-2014 Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono)

Other condition that should happen :

1. Indonesia stay with KF 21 program and the program is successful
2. Indonesia MALE UCAV/wingman STEALTH UCAV/unmanned submarine program are completed and successful
3. Indonesia economy keep growing at 5.5-6.5 percent growth until 2045 that could possibly make the country become more capable to solve world problem beyond its own border, starting at 2035

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## JamD

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.

Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
1. No help will come.
2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
3. Mountain alliance? What garbage

Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.

Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.

Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.


Basically me after reading this:

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## Indos

If India in the offensive, there will be oil and gas embargo from Muslim nations, and I believe countries such as USA and Russia with huge oil and gas production will not help India to deal with its oil and gas supply deficit. It is because USA and Russia will likely stay neutral due to the influence of OIC nations. USA doesnt want Muslim countries side with China and Russia doesnt want to have bad relation with Muslim countries due to its rivalry with USA

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## Bilal.

JamD said:


> Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.
> 
> Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
> *1. No help will come.
> 2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
> 3. Mountain alliance? What garbage*
> 
> Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.
> 
> Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.
> 
> Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.
> 
> 
> Basically me after reading this:
> View attachment 743798


Exactly, also couple of more points:

1. Ormara and more importantly Gwadar (both absent in the simulation) will make the blockade and pinning down of PN much more complicated.

2. the Casus Belli for US is extremely dumb:
A) America would coordinate with all parties in a contested air-space
B) Even if it doesn’t due to ulterior motives. Pakistan won’t hand over a perfect justification to them by engaging their rescue flights.

In any case, nukes would fly much much earlier then what was been allowed.

P.S.: Saudi F15 and Indonesian SU30. looool.

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## Hakikat ve Hikmet

Here’s a naive scenario from me (Fools dare where angels fear):

Pak-Sino Joint Ops:

EW: the Indian EM spectrum is blocked from all sides (West, North, East, South via land, air, sea and space based assets). Phantom images are generated. Take out the Indian spy satellites via anti satellite missiles. 

Strategic sabotage: Indian strategic sites (AD, nukes, missiles, air bases, transportation, communication, power, ports, logistics, administrative, banking etc.) via cyber warfare, sleeper cells, pinpoint missiles, long range loitering munitions etc. attacks. Generous usage of EMP, directed energy weapons etc. is allowed. Feed as much misinformation as possible to the gullible Indian common folks.

Unmanned attacks: AI driven air, land and sea based unmanned assets using SOM, guided bombs etc. taking out the forward positions, AD, artillery, tanks etc. And, they are directing long range artillery, rocket etc. attacks on the Indian positions along LOC, LAC, IB etc.

Air attacks: amongst complete COVID style chaos inside India the manned jets go for air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-sea targets 02-27 style with complete air superiority. 

Land ops: amidst the complete air superiority a Turkish-style drone based warfare to clear the remaining points of the resistances in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal, Arunachal, Sikim, Chicken’s neck and South Tibet is undertaken with the fanfare.

Naval ops: submarines of all sorts are employed along with anti-submarine ops along the usual channels. Indian carriers and are other surface assets are taken out via missiles.

Crumbling India: Seeing the devastating effects of the non-contact warfare India asks for ceasefire while all the Pak-Sino objectives have got achieved.

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.
> 
> Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
> 1. No help will come.
> 2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
> 3. Mountain alliance? What garbage
> 
> Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.
> 
> Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.
> 
> Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.
> 
> 
> Basically me after reading this:
> View attachment 743798


I was wondering who I was forgetting - that mountain alliance is really just a forced attempt to put Pakistan in a losing situation from get go. PTM is a nuisance along with TTP on the other side but no mass defections are ever taking place unless a massive breakdown of command occurs(I am talking mass political incarceration or some generals being executed)

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## Bilal.

Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:

- Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)

- Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide

- Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day

The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.

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## SQ8

Bilal. said:


> Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:
> 
> - Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)
> 
> - Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide
> 
> - Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day
> 
> The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.


Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?

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## Indos

Pakistan is the only nuclear bomb maker within Muslim world, this is a very strategic position so Muslim countries will likely help Pakistan not to be invaded by India. It is also a matter of survival for other Muslim countries. So the war will turn into India vs Muslim countries and the nuclear warhead will be distributed to all major Muslim nations that will help Pakistan. 

It is in the condition where Pakistan get overwhelmed by India attack and could be invaded if there is no significant help

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## Bilal.

SQ8 said:


> Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?


That is a million dollar question. We wouldn’t even be able to predict how a Feb 2019 (a very limited scale op) like situation will conclude, before it did take place.

But one thing I do believe is that the appetite for a full scale war of the type discussed here is almost non existent on both Pakistan and India side and even less so for the world community given the nuclear angle.

So, most likely:

1) Bilateral de-escalation will happen much earlier
2) De-escalation under international pressure will happen much earlier if point#1 does not happen

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## Tipu7

Honestly, it's ridiculous situation buildup. Good from a movie perspective, but far far away from reality. 

In sum, it's Poor understanding of regional politics, strategic frameworks, doctrinal posture and force employments related to this region. Heck, almost a dozen times the nuclear threshold was breached even before the US led mission was assigned to eliminate Pakistan nuclear weapons...

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## SQ8

Tipu7 said:


> Honestly, it's ridiculous situation buildup. Good from a movie perspective, but far far away from reality.
> 
> In sum, it's Poor understanding of *regional politics, strategic frameworks, doctrinal posture and force employments related to this region*. Heck, almost a dozen times the nuclear threshold was breached even before the US led mission was assigned to eliminate Pakistan nuclear weapons...


But - isn’t that the prevailing attitudes driving think tanks in the US? Those same ones thay brief senators and other influentials

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## JamD

Perhaps this is just a phase for me but I am really into saturating systems with decoys these days. If any side can saturate the other's defenses then overwhelming them becomes much much easier. But that is easier said than done. I think they key bottleneck here is cost/numbers. If we can figure out a decoy that can be deployed in the hundreds of thousands for cheap, then it can overwhelm even the fanciest systems.

To be more specific:
1. Pakistan launches 1000s of air-launched or ground-launched decoys at IAF bases to soften them up for airstrikes.
2. Pakistan launches 100s of sub- or pontoon-launched at whatever flotilla is blockading Karachi, making room for C-802 armed JF-17s to break through (they have little chance of success on their own).

Not even sure if this is possible with today's technology. Key technical challenges:
1. Range: have the decoy go from launch to it's target - and not become as expensive as a cruise missile.
2. Cost: the design and production be extremely extremely cheap so we can produces 100s of thousands. It should cost less than a Barak 8 to produce and launch a decoy which wastes a Barak 8.
3. Possible use of electronic spoofing: related to cost and range but if possible each decoy looks like multiple targets, thus increasing its effectiveness at wearing down a defense.

Why could/should Pakistan invest in (or at least look into) this?
1. Counteract India's numerical and financial superiority by wasting it's resources.
2. IF (big if) we can manage to create, produce, and deploy such systems, then this can be a game changer (CPEC wala nahin lol).



SQ8 said:


> Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?


That is indeed THE question.

Question 1: Does China intervene initially?
Option A: China scares India into standing down.
Option B: China is not able to scare India into standing down. China will not directly intervene right now.
Selecting option B, moving on.

Question 2A: How well does PAF do?
Option A: 27 Feb everywhere and is able to blunt IA's advances by establishing air superiority - not likely at all. 27 feb was one carefully choreographed operation that relied on LOCAL numerical and technological superiority. PAF cannot do this everywhere all the time.
Option B: PAF fights for a war of attrition for a week or two. After this PAF is severely limited in operations. Yes IAF has been given a good beating but there's a whole lot more of IAF left.
Select option B.

Question 2B: How well does PN do?
Option A: PN keeps the IN at bay through the use of coastal cruise missiles, submarines, and naval CAP by PAF JF-17s. This can actually go on for much longer than PAF can hold it out. 3-4 weeks maybe? Before India is able to hunt most of our subs and destroy most coastal batteries. PAF going down will of course speed this process up.
Option B: PN is unable to leave port and Pearl Harboured.
Option A obviously, moving on.

Question 3: Now, does China intervene??
Option A: China makes small incursions into Ladakh and near Assam. Does aerial harassment of IAF assets flying over India.
Option B: China use cruise missiles to strike IAF bases.
Option C: China sends stuff to Pakistan.

At this point Option A is likely. However, despite this I expect India to be able to take large parts of our territory. This is because of:
1. Their numerical superiority (tanks)
2. Their ground attack air element superiority (Apaches, sensor-fuzed weapons) taking out our armour
3. Natural defense provided by mountains, China isn't bringing down tanks through the north.

Question 4: Does Pakistan use TNWs?
Option A: Yes- India responds with nukes - game over - not worth discussing
Option B: No. India will make it quite deep into Pakistan.

Question 5: Will IA overstretch its supply lines?
Option A: No. Pakistan surrenders. Plot twist: this is Ghazwa-e-Hind prophecy being fulfilled lol.
Option B: Yes. Maybe I am saying this because I am a biased Pakistani but I expect the IA to overstretch their supply lines. I say this because the Indian military often makes political decisions as opposed to strictly military decisions. But this is just an opinion.

Selecting Option B: PA will employ hit-and-run harassment tactics on IA. IA will be forced to retreat or suffer heavy casualties. War ends with Pakistan military as super duper heros but economy and military in ruins obviously. Massive hunger, poverty, and death. India's economy has more to lose though and will lose a lot. Their military will be obliterated too. They might go into a super fascist phase like Germany after WW1.

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## HRK

Bilal. said:


> Basically, someone had 3 broad ideas:
> 
> - Phase1: Pakistan vs India. Pakistan will be nearly defeated and will be marred by insurgencies while at it (very 2009ish)
> 
> - Phase2: China will intervene and turn the tide
> 
> - Phase3: US jumps in and wins the day
> 
> The rest is a lot of wishful thinking to back these 3 broad points to fill the details of an already forgone conclusion someone has in their mind for the “simulation”.



This simulation is similar [modernise version] to a report Named: Under Secretary of Defense (USD-Policy) 1999 Summer Study Final Report ASIA 2025 (*click here*: Read New South Asia Order starting from *Page number-75*)

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## Bilal.

HRK said:


> This simulation is similar [modernise version] to a report Named: Under Secretary of Defense (USD-Policy) 1999 Summer Study Final Report ASIA 2025 (*click here*: Read New South Asia Order starting from *Page number-75*)


Wow! Let’s wait another 20 odd year for the next rehash. 

But you gotta love the “pehle aap, pehle aap” between US and india for the fulfillment of their fantasies.

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## HRK

SQ8 said:


> But - isn’t that the prevailing attitudes driving think tanks in the US? Those same ones thay brief senators and other influentials





Bilal. said:


> But one thing I do believe is that the appetite for a full scale war of the type discussed here is almost non existent on both Pakistan and India side and even less so for the world community given the nuclear angle.


The Game is Much Bigger than a Country or Few Countries, and because of this _*a Full Scale war in South Asia is THE NEED to reshape the not just the south Asian Region but to Reshape the future of Asia .....*_ 

IF China is need to be stopped in its track of progress it is necessary to cut it from the sources of Energy and Raw Material for its industrial growth as well as from the Consumer Markets.

Therefore it is a need to create a Super STATE in South Asia which could interfere in the Middle East, Central Asia and could provide a sizeable Market for Western Products.

It is the *NEED OF WESTERN WORLD* to reshape Middle East and South Asia for their continuous Imperialism.

Following is one of the target of the designed future.

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## JamD

HRK said:


> The Game is Much Bigger than a Country or Few Countries, and because of this _*a Full Scale war in South Asia is THE NEED to reshape the not just the south Asian Region but to Reshape the future of Asia .....*_
> 
> IF China is need to be stopped in its track of progress it is necessary to cut it from the sources of Energy and Raw Material for its industrial growth as well as from the Consumer Markets.
> 
> Therefore it is a need to create a Super STATE in South Asia which could interfere in the Middle East, Central Asia and could provide a sizeable Market for Western Products.
> 
> It is the *NEED OF WESTERN WORLD* to reshape Middle East and South Asia for their continuous Imperialism.
> 
> Following is one of the target of the designed future.
> 
> View attachment 743819


It doesn't make sense. The cost that will have to be paid means that any such "Indian Confederation" will be a wasteland full of death, hunger, poverty, incapable of surviving, let alone affecting anything else in the region. Of course, this would be more realistic if Pakistan was closer in size and power to Sri Lanka or Nepal. And we would probably have peace in the subcontinent if Pakistan was matched with India. Pakistan is in the goldilocks zone of annoying India: too small and weak to force India to accept some of it demands, too big for India to ignore, influence, or takeover.

If I were a western planner I would go about making this Indian Confederation a different way: economics. And this is PROBABLY what they will try to do. Nullify Pakistan's strengths by making Pakistan so poor that it is forced to capitulate to any and all demands.

Military conflict really isn't in anyone's favour (and not because of some idealistic notion of world peace). There are easier/better ways to twist Pakistan's arm.

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## Bilal.

HRK said:


> The Game is Much Bigger than a Country or Few Countries, and because of this _*a Full Scale war in South Asia is THE NEED to reshape the not just the south Asian Region but to Reshape the future of Asia .....*_
> 
> IF China is need to be stopped in its track of progress it is necessary to cut it from the sources of Energy and Raw Material for its industrial growth as well as from the Consumer Markets.
> 
> Therefore it is a need to create a Super STATE in South Asia which could interfere in the Middle East, Central Asia and could provide a sizeable Market for Western Products.
> 
> It is the *NEED OF WESTERN WORLD* to reshape Middle East and South Asia for their continuous Imperialism.
> 
> Following is one of the target of the designed future.
> 
> View attachment 743819


Yes I went through the presentation. Again, it’s the same 3 broad phases. Although the previous study’s main purpose seem to be securing middle-east energy resources with a secondary objective of containing China.

Now they have taken the same broad ideas with main focus being removal of Pakistan and hence encirclement of China, with middle-east energy not being a factor any more thanks to shale.

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## HRK

JamD said:


> It doesn't make sense. The cost that will have to be paid means that any such "Indian Confederation" will be a wasteland full of death, hunger, poverty, incapable of surviving, let alone affecting anything else in the region. Of course, this would be more realistic if Pakistan was closer in size and power to Sri Lanka or Nepal. And we would probably have peace in the subcontinent if Pakistan was matched with India. Pakistan is in the goldilocks zone of annoying India: too small and weak to force India to accept some of it demands, too big for India to ignore, influence, or takeover.
> 
> If I were a western planner I would go about making this Indian Confederation a different way: economics. And this is PROBABLY what they will try to do. Nullify Pakistan's strengths by making Pakistan so poor that it is forced to capitulate to any and all demands.
> 
> Military conflict really isn't in anyone's favour (and not because of some idealistic notion of world peace). There are easier/better ways to twist Pakistan's arm.


In 1999 the idea was to denuclearise Pakistan in any manner possible, and it was in that study mention that US would attack nuclear assets and facilities of Pakistan. India was shown much superior in conventional military balance and nuclear capability was seen as the only hindrance in achieving this.

Now coming back to the present "on paper" If this target is to be achieved then Nuclear capability of Pakistan is still the only hindrance, we are aware about the Condeleza Rice statement (in US Congress) in which She clearly stated that US have plan to secure Pakistan's nuclear assets and facilities, so once you remove Nuclear fang of Pakistan then achieving this target should not be a Herculean task for Indian Force at least on paper.

Now that Super Indian State (or we can say the western acceptance of Indian concept of greater India) would not be a hunger ridden state as it will have most of the economic resources with in its boundaries required for economic activities, it will not be a highly Industrial and scientific society so would not be a very rich country, but a country with sizeable middle class with few super rich families and with poor majority, so all in all it will the reflection of current economic state of South Asia and would not be threat to west for a longer period in future .....

The only issue would be to keep that state intact politically for a longer period.

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## Vapour

Would be a great if an analyst undertakes a war-game analysis of modern day LOC and WB skirmishes turned into a full-on conflict, which is informed by the events of 2019 and beyond by Pakistan, India and China. I believe several important myths were shattered with the occurrence of these events.

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## ummarz

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.




I have been meaning to try this out but unfortunately got no time these days. So thanks for the wonderful summary. 

I am a little disappointed by the developers. It seems like they don't have a very clear picture of the current geopolitics and they are at least a decade in the past.

Things they got factually wrong:

1: The heavily fortified and fenced LOC with heavy surveillance means you can't have people crossing over when ever they feel like it. There are no real "launch pads" to target on the Pakistani side. That is all Indian propaganda. Interesting that they chose the Indian perspective on this.

2: Not only did they make Pakistan look like it decided to show up for a fight after smoking hashish, but they also made Pakistan's buddy look like an amateur. Making tactical blunders. Is this really what they expect from the country that generated the Art of war (by Sun Tzu). Why wouldn't China open up a second front but instead it decides to wait for their aircraft carrier to slowly arrive in the Indian Ocean. If they have decided to get into the war, I am certain they would go all out and wouldn't hold back. Just look at the history, the Korean wars.

3: Military support from Saudi Arabia. hmm I don't think so.

4: No mention of Turkey or Iran. Countries that have historically helped Pakistan. 

5: A friendlier Afghanistan. If everything goes well until September and according to the plan to pull out troops. Afghanistan and subsequently Central Asia will have a role to play as well.

6: Pakistan attacks US rescue flights...?? lol

7: US engages China... if they do that, US will no longer be the world power. I am sure they would be wiser than to do that. We already saw that the Israeli tech in Indian hands was pretty useless against Pakistan, I only wonder what China has in store.

8: No mention of China/Pakistan exploiting the Naxal insurgency with in India...


The reality: (comic relief)

Its election season in India. In a bid to win over the population the Indian politicians hash a genius plan. Have RAW draw up a false flag attack within India. Blame Pakistan, attack Pakistan (but probably miss the intended target) and get beaten badly in a short air skirmish. But this time, instead of backing down, India mobilizes all forces in preparation for full out war. China immediately puts pressure on several fronts, starts minor hand to hand skirmishes, killing hundreds of Indian soldiers which fall off the cliff and freeze to death. Indian govt. blames the weather, maybe the clouds again... for not being able to rescue the men. Everything calms down until next elections.

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## Varunastra

HRK said:


> The Game is Much Bigger than a Country or Few Countries, and because of this _*a Full Scale war in South Asia is THE NEED to reshape the not just the south Asian Region but to Reshape the future of Asia .....*_
> 
> IF China is need to be stopped in its track of progress it is necessary to cut it from the sources of Energy and Raw Material for its industrial growth as well as from the Consumer Markets.
> 
> Therefore it is a need to create a Super STATE in South Asia which could interfere in the Middle East, Central Asia and could provide a sizeable Market for Western Products.
> 
> It is the *NEED OF WESTERN WORLD* to reshape Middle East and South Asia for their continuous Imperialism.
> 
> Following is one of the target of the designed future.
> 
> View attachment 743819


Interesting video


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## Sine Nomine

JamD said:


> Nullify Pakistan's strengths by making Pakistan so poor that it is forced to capitulate to any and all demands.


We are currently under a huge covert attack,economy is under attack for past 2 decades.Anti-state propaganda day and night.
When West backed TTP failed,PTM came out of no where and is a huge hit.When MQM was destoyed from economic hub of country,PPP started destroying same place using soft approach, Karachi literally held hostage since 2010.
Pakistan under FATF when countries which literally are hub of black money are not even talked about.
There is a War going against Pakistan if not for CPEC,only Almighty knows what would have happened.
@HRK

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## Mav3rick

Indos said:


> I doubt any possible war happen during 2020-2035 period since both countries will focus on developing the economy and avoid any war.
> 
> I dont like the war between Pakistan and India and the help from Muslim nations I believe will only happen if Pakistan is in defensive position since if Pakistan in the offensive it means sending military help will only escalate and prolong the war.
> 
> *Beyond 2035 scenario*
> 
> The first help I believe will be sending MALE UCAV and its operator to Pakistan, and in order to do so need strong enough navy armada to bring them to Pakistan.
> 
> View attachment 743790
> 
> 
> And Indonesian PT PAL is designing unmanned submarine where I think in 2035 above we will have many of them inshaAllah. The unmanned submarine will be the next to be send if India doesnt stop its offensive.
> 
> If India is lead by crazy and India offensive never stop, Indonesia will likely send KF 21/IFX and their UCAV STEALTH wingman drone (InshaAllah we will develop them).
> 
> View attachment 743794
> 
> 
> 
> And Pakistan needs to sell at least 20 nuclear head to Indonesia that can be integrated into submarine missiles, this will also give financial help to Pakistan and in the other hand give assurance that there will be nuclear war if India nuke Indonesia.
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> All of this will only happen under Indonesia being lead by Nationalist Religius-Islamist coalition, this coalition has ruled democratic Indonesia in several period (1998-1999-Habibie), (1999-2002 Abdurrahman Wahid), (2004-2014 Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono)
> 
> Other condition that should happen :
> 
> 1. Indonesia stay with KF 21 program and the program is successful
> 2. Indonesia MALE UAV/wingman STEALTH UCAV/unmanned submarine program are completed and successful
> 3. Indonesia economy keep growing at 5.5-6.5 percent growth until 2045 that could possibly make the country become more capable to solve world problem beyond its own border, starting at 2035



Although that I would love nothing more than Pakistan providing Nuclear Weapons and Delivery systems to other Muslims Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE etc.); the sanctions would destroy all these countries financially.


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## Sine Nomine

Mav3rick said:


> Although that I would love nothing more than Pakistan providing Nuclear Weapons and Delivery systems to other Muslims Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE etc.); the sanctions would destroy all these countries financially.


Why no Muslim county provide us with free Oil,since they have lot of it?
We did built that arsenal with lot of effort and hard wor(thanks to Almighty),we should never give it to anyone,last time we shared it with Iran and Libya, Iranians pretty much threw us under bus,if not for the West needs in WoT,crippling economic sanctions would have been imposed upon us.We better behave as a responsible state when it comes to nukes.

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## HRK

Sine Nomine said:


> We are currently under a huge covert attack,economy is under attack for past 2 decades.Anti-state propganda day and night.
> When West backed TTP failed,PTM came out of no where and is a huge hit.When MQM was destoyed from economic hub of country,PPP started destroying same place using soft approach, Karachi literally held hostage since 2010.
> Pakistan under FATF when countries which literally are hub of black money are not even talked about.
> There is a War going against Pakistan if not for CPEC,only Almighty knows what would have happened.
> @HRK


I think we are one of the only 2 countries in world who are at the state of war since day of their creation ....

From 1947 and 1948 skirmishes with India and Afghanistan

1950s skirmishes with Afghanistan and insurgencies promoted by Afghanistan

1965 war with India

1971 war with India

1979-1989 war in Afghanistan due to Soviet Invasion

1990- till to date Pakistan's engagements in Afghan war for one reason or other

So war or war like situations are not new to us .... its the political and economic instability which is creating weakness in our National Power.

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## Mav3rick

JamD said:


> Maybe it's just me but that provided more a perspective on how the west sees the region, rather than what might actually take place. Granted that it is nearly impossible to predict such things but when you make one party a fumbling idiot (Pakistan) then it sort of reads like something where the conclusion was decided beforehand and "predictions" made to fit the conclusion.
> 
> Major differences from what I think would really happen are what you have already said:
> 1. No help will come.
> 2. Nukes will fly (or will be threatened) much sooner.
> 3. Mountain alliance? What garbage
> 
> Also, it is kind of dumb how China is fully involved but is doing nothing on its border with India. Almost like they're intentionally avoiding the dreaded two-front war.
> 
> Pakistani coastal missile batteries are mentioned, but apparently those don't work at all, and instant blockade lol.
> 
> Not sure if I am frustrated by the fact that they destroy Pakistan or by how stupidly this plays out lol.
> 
> 
> Basically me after reading this:
> View attachment 743798



Building more on point 3 above, any war with India would unite divided Pakistan like no other matter. And the tribal belt will be most eager to teach Hindu India a lesson.

Also, Pakistani subs and frigates are apparently toys and do not make any difference as they are so casually discarded; not to mention the hundreds of Ballistic/Cruise Missiles that we have which are portable and impossible to find. Furthermore, in which dreams can any boot on Karachi soil take place? Not just the beach but urban warfare would be annihilation for any and all invading forces. 30 Million Karachiites would love to kill some Indians.

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## Sine Nomine

HRK said:


> I think we are one of the only 2 countries in world who are at the state of war since day of their creation ....
> 
> From 1947 and 1948 skirmishes with India and Afghanistan
> 
> 1950s skirmishes with Afghanistan and insurgencies promoted by Afghanistan
> 
> 1965 war with India
> 
> 1971 war with India
> 
> 1979-1989 war in Afghanistan due to Soviet Invasion
> 
> 1990- till to date Pakistan's engagements in Afghan war for one reason or other
> 
> So war or war like situations are not new to us .... its the political and economic stability which is creating weakness in our National Power.


Afghan problem won't end post 9/11/21,it's only solution is extension of Pakistani frontier till Amu river,social fabric of Afghanistan has been destroyed beyond repair.It is divided on ethnic and secterian lines so much that people there don't hesitate sliting each other throats on petty issues.Once our back yard is clear we can look towards East with impunity.We must end this perpetual state of conflict inside Pakistan and towards North West Frontier.We are banking on end of Afghan conflict as solution to our many problems(BLA,TTP,Drugs etc),and that's a wrong approach.Funds would dry out but terrorists would live as we have seen in past after USSR withdraw all ethno terrorists became patriots overnight and silently spreaded their poision,those who got infected picked up arms when flow of funds started after 2001.We kill those who pick guns against state but leave their ideological mentors and supporters alive.State must act with iron hands in solving issues plunging peace in North West Frontier.
P.S:- Pakistani Establishment Core is very weak(yeah akalmand log sapoliyo ko Naag banatey hain aur akhir mai wohi Naag mulk ko dus letey hain).
FB,Twitter and other SMP's are infested with anti-state propaganda and they do nothing.In 2021 they are failing to understand that a single rotton mind polluting online is going to infect many others.

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## Mav3rick

Sine Nomine said:


> Why no Muslim county provide us with free Oil,since they have lot of it?
> We did built that arsenal with lot of effort and hard wor(thanks to Almighty),we should never give it to anyone,last time we shared it with Iran and Libya, Iranians pretty much threw us under bus,if not for the West needs in WoT,crippling economic sanctions would have been imposed upon us.We better behave as a responsible state when it comes to nukes.



Well, I did emphasize on the crippled economies, as an outcome of our Nuclear assistance to other countries. However, if Saudi Arabia and UAE are threatened with sanctions, they can always cripple the US economy with OIL embargoes so any such move would be impossible and by extension, it would be impossible to sanction Pakistan if Saudi's and Emiratis extend their support to Pakistan. 

Furthermore, we would not be distributing the Nukes/Technology as charity, it would be a trade.........free Oil, wiping of debt, investment etc.


Indos said:


> If India in the offensive, there will be oil and gas embargo from Muslim nations, and I believe countries such as USA and Russia with huge oil and gas production will not help India to deal with its oil and gas supply deficit. It is because USA and Russia will likely stay neutral due to the influence of OIC nations. USA doesnt want Muslim countries side with China and Russia doesnt want to have bad relation with Muslim countries due to its rivalry with USA



The only Muslim countries that may come to our aid in a military conflict would be Turkey and I don't know how fruitful that could be. To take on India in a defensive posture and to DEFEAT/CRIPPLE Indian Military, all we really need is military equipment and financial assistance (Oil, food supplies etc.); no manpower is required. 

All other countries, perhaps even China, will stay neutral unless Nuclear War becomes inevitable.


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## Tomcats

SQ8 said:


> Then here is the question - what is the real scenario?


I mean chances of another high intensity broad front conflict seems low due to the economic impact which no side really wants. Like it has been at least 50 years since the last one.

Though i digress, let's say it does take place, long term India can attrition Pakistan in a long year(s) long conflict due to their economical and Industrial edge as well as their territorial depth.
In a short war it will be hit or miss, India or Pakistan could come out as the winner it will really depend on what happens on the ground and whether our planners make the right moves or not, we may plan it out as well as we can but like the old adage goes, 'No plan survives contact with the enemy'.

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## Goritoes

First of all, What the FUQQQQQQQQQ is mountain Alliance? I am forced to believe by some super emotional members of PDF that when times come Pashtoon will be in front to fight for Pakistan? but what you are saying...






The way I see it here is how things will play out...

I am bypassing all that Indian BS of Terrorist Attack and one is caught alive with indestructible Pakistani Passport, CNIC and some Prince biscuit packs with some Ajwa Kajoor. Lets start from when once again India decide to launch an Air strike within Pakistan but this time they come better prepared and this time most importantly they hit something where Pakistan faces some civilian loses, next day Pakistan will parade those dead to International media and this time no firm warning to Indians that wait for our response, as they are briefing the media a Strike is underway. This time IAF is very well prepared but Pakistan obviously change its incursion strategy ( they'd be dumb if they don't ).

PAF strikes Military targets but this time they hit the actual building killing a sum of IA soldiers but the Air fight took a couple of jets from each side, which works as fuel to the raging fire, IA prepare a massive ground attack as preparation was done since the days of India Rants, and Pakistan already moved a massive force in border Areas and now bracing for the Attack, at this situation Americans will be calling Delhi and Islamabad but also providing Satellite images to Indians (most likely) and same would be expected from China, And Russians are sitting back with their Vodka bottle enjoying ( Das vedaniya ) .

India launch a multiple attack from Sindh (Thar), Punjab ( Sialkot+Lahore) and Azad Kashmir with heavy backings with IAF striking PAF forward Positions under the cover of their Almighty S400, PAF will be very troubled because of lack of strategic depth, hence as soon as their fighters fly's off to intercept IAF will know but PAF can counter this by putting their own AWAC's in sky deep in KPK and Baluchistan to keep an eye on IAF activities, IAF first strike will put a heavy blow on PAF this time (if not, they should just commit collective suicide) but PAF will recover as the motivation and Survival instinct of Pakistan's are on full swing, Religious songs are all over the radio that will pump up PAF and PA soldiers so much so that they become wardi wale Suicide bombers ( if we die, we will take you down with us), IA will use its heavy numbers to launch attacks from multiple fronts to stretch PA forces hence easy to penetrate but as if the PA is having hard to keeping up with the defense then a Call will be send of Radio Pakistan, Mere Aziz Hamwatno, Kuffr ne lalkara hai Muslim ko again blah blah blah, hence Pakistani's who are bored of PUBG and burning their own country for some French Presidents will come out in millions to join the voluenteer force (you can give it any name you want) they will send to lines behind the actual defense lines to perform logistics and supply while rest of PA soldiers will be sent on front to match IA numbers.

War is on full swing, many countries are trying to pretend they don't like war but inside they are happy, as brown People are slaughtering each other again and these Gori Chamri can now sell more weapons to these Chawal Chutiya's of South Asia (Pardon my language). Afghanistan with whatever is left of them will try to use TTP and other Terrorists to attack some of the FC posts from the west, but FC will kick them so hard that they will become actual impotent this time (not that Polio drops Impotent). FC is more than enough to take care of the Afghan hashish Army and TTP once well established in their forts, Iran's role will be crucial but also unpredictable, I want to believe that Iran will send Oil for Pakistan in this time with opening their very close to the border Airfields for PAF in case they want to land, but this is a huge huge gamble, if it plays out well then it will be good for Pakistan but if it didn't then no complains or Shikway to Iranians as they did what every Enemy would do. China before things heat up, secretly transfer ammunition, missiles, even J-10's to Pakistan along with full of Satellite imagery of Indian targets and formations and other goodies, CCP will be giving statements of war should be avoided but also helping Pakistan as Indians will be getting their help from Yahood-o-Nasara in full Pagan style.

on the naval Front, IN will definitely gain some initial success by attacking PN ships (most likely) sinking 1-2 in the process, but thing is that this time PN is better prepared in the retaliation PN can easily hit more IN ships and sink more using their Submarine fleet's, Coastal Defense batteries will play a massive role in Preventing another 71 kinda situation, and hopefully by 2024 (which is the year this war is going on) PN will raise a Full strength sq of fighters dedicated for Naval strikes which will make IN ships think twice before coming close enough for a blockade.

India Pushes inside Pakistan and Pakistan losing ground, here Pakistan will have a choice to make, Radioactive or full-on Public Active, Now if we go for Radio Active then Abbu Jee of the world, Aka America will pick up the movement of the missiles by Pakistan, they will tell their Indian counterparts that Pakistan" Bare larke le aya hai " its time to back down, Americans will try their best that by the time world forces both countries for a cease-fire India is on the stronger Position which will hurt Pakistani morale, but China will make sure that Pakistan if not come of Top at least match Indian advances on equal terms if IA gains some Territory so does Pakistan hence both countries retreat back to Pre-war Position. Kashmiri's will still remain under IA occupation cause they will again capture PA soldiers and hand them over to India (most likely) Afghan's will be cheering up for Indians like Sheela ki Jawani, but in the end it will the Afghan Munni which will be badnam.

Indian image will get strong as they will push the narrative that because of Pakistan's allege Terrorism we went on a full-scale War, and close to a Nuclear War hence the world should put tougher Sanctions of Pakistan for supporting Terrorism and to some degree they will be successful because their standing is better in the International world then us, on the other side Pakistan will see as a smaller nation which defends against a 10x larger enemy yet again, ( Lanat ho Indians tum per, Sharam se doob marna) while China, Turkey, KSA and Malaysia might issue statements in favor of Pakistan and through back door diplomacy Pakistan might be able to avoid Sanctions from Abbu Jee America and the world, Some EU countries will write Articles praising Indians while other will remain neutral, I know we will get some fresh Air articles from our Italian Pizza brothers  Turkey will do the same, KSA as usual offer free Oil as they don't have anything else to offer besides oil, China will ask for more influence over Pakistan for the stuff they provided during the WAR, and After the war and we will have our Hamid Mir Telling us that China is buying Poor Pakistani's kidneys.

Conclusion: The war will leave a huge number of Soldiers and Civilians dead (With or Without Nukes) IA because of their large numbers will lose more, because of the factor that invading Armies needs more soldiers and loses more, compared to defending Armies, but Indians will eventually Claim that Pakistan lost 30,000 soldiers for Indian 10,000 cause whatever their death rate is they just multiply it by 3 and present it as Pakistani dead, and their chawal Awam will believe it, Indians will be made to believe that Bharat ne Pakistan ko Sabak sekha diya blah blah, until the time when some Kashmiri's again pick up some AK's and kill few more IA soldiers and the whole thing start again.

@PanzerKiel @HRK @Blacklight @SQ8

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## Mav3rick

Hakikat ve Hikmet said:


> Here’s a naive scenario from me (Fools dare where angels fear):
> 
> Pak-Sino Joint Ops:
> 
> EW: the Indian EM spectrum is blocked from all sides (West, North, East, South via land, air, sea and space based assets). Phantom images are generated. Take out the Indian spy satellites via anti satellite missiles.
> 
> Strategic sabotage: Indian strategic sites (AD, nukes, missiles, air bases, transportation, communication, power, ports, logistics, administrative, banking etc.) via cyber warfare, sleeper cells, pinpoint missiles, long range loitering munitions etc. attacks. Generous usage of EMP, directed energy weapons etc. is allowed. Feed as much misinformation as possible to the gullible Indian common folks.
> 
> Unmanned attacks: AI driven air, land and sea based unmanned assets using SOM, guided bombs etc. taking out the forward positions, AD, artillery, tanks etc. And, they are directing long range artillery, rocket etc. attacks on the Indian positions along LOC, LAC, IB etc.
> 
> Air attacks: amongst complete COVID style chaos inside India the manned jets go for air-to-air, air-to-ground and air-to-sea targets 02-27 style with complete air superiority.
> 
> Land ops: amidst the complete air superiority a Turkish-style drone based warfare to clear the remaining points of the resistances in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal, Arunachal, Sikim, Chicken’s neck and South Tibet is undertaken with the fanfare.
> 
> Naval ops: submarines of all sorts are employed along with anti-submarine ops along the usual channels. Indian carriers and are other surface assets are taken out via missiles.
> 
> Crumbling India: Seeing the devastating effects of the non-contact warfare India asks for ceasefire while all the Pak-Sino objectives have got achieved.



So all this while the Indian Military sleeps? I mean these can be achieved against Afghanistan, perhaps......but against India, with such impunity???


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## HRK

Sine Nomine said:


> Afghan problem won't end post 9/11/21,it's only solution is extension of Pakistani frontier till Amu river


I agree most of the points of your post other than this one .... but as this theard is not related to this topic therefore we may argue on this topic in some other thread in some other day 

But briefly for this point my argument is simple why burden ourselves unnecessarily .... ?? all we need from Afghanistan is land access to Central Asia and some raw material that's it nothing more .... lets the native decide what they want even if they want division of Afghanistan let them do it ....

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## Mentee

I guess the Pakistanis are playing dead and waiting for the war to end ?

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## Indos

Mav3rick said:


> Although that I would love nothing more than Pakistan providing Nuclear Weapons and Delivery systems to other Muslims Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE etc.); the sanctions would destroy all these countries financially.



2035 beyond IMO is already something different, the world will likely be multipolar and the effect of US and Western sanction will be likely much less and Indonesia and Malaysia economy would likely be still growing within RCEP region.


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## Irfan Baloch

@SQ8 
do you want us to give it our own spin?
or just comment on the scenario and how it plays out?

I will forward this page to see ifI can get some view from the veterans who served in the areas.

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## The Maverick

Even a short war will.bring Pakistan.to it's knees,so quickly .
reason being all.your big cities and infrastructure is near the border. The impact via power black outs and no flights. no telephone lines will hit you guys so hard..Lahore Islamabad even Karachi are too close to the fire line.
your forex,reserve is like 5% of India.s and the indian navy will.try and blockade you..

indian commercial.cities Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bangalore are 1000.miles,away..
throwing the odd missle will.be like needle at an elephant. 
and no one's using nukes, you have no idea,where arihant is with it's nuclear strike missles. 
it will.be attritional war but as I have always said finish the f16 fleet and the air power goes to India..Even if 100.mki and mirages are lost take out 50.or 60.f16 and it's over..
that will.be the plan I'm.sure along with sea lines,denile and hitting Karachi and gwader hard.
I doubt India will.take land more search and destroy your military assets and bases,

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## PanzerKiel

The Maverick said:


> Even a short war will.bring Pakistan.to it's knees,so quickly .
> reason being all.your big cities and infrastructure is near the border. The impact via power black outs and no flights. no telephone lines will hit you guys so hard..Lahore Islamabad even Karachi are too close to the fire line.
> your forex,reserve is like 5% of India.s and the indian navy will.try and blockade you..
> 
> indian commercial.cities Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bangalore are 1000.miles,away..
> throwing the odd missle will.be like needle at an elephant.
> and no one's using nukes, you have no idea,where arihant is with it's nuclear strike missles.
> it will.be attritional war but as I have always said finish the f16 fleet and the air power goes to India..Even if 100.mki and mirages are lost take out 50.or 60.f16 and it's over..
> that will.be the plan I'm.sure along with sea lines,denile and hitting Karachi and gwader hard.
> I doubt India will.take land more search and destroy your military assets and bases,


... But then there was and there is something which was and is stopping india from achieving this easy victory as you say... The way you have narrated it, the only thing missing on your side is the WILL.... Nothing else.... Why isn't anyone willing on your side to eradicate Pakistan once and for all?

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## The Maverick

PanzerKiel said:


> ... But then there was and there is something which was and is stopping india from achieving this easy victory as you say... The way you have narrated it, the only thing missing on your side is the WILL.... Nothing else.... Why isn't anyone willing on your side to eradicate Pakistan once and for all?




no India cannot erridcuate pakistan imo completely. 
my post depicts the loss to your infrastructure and military assets in war lasting 3 or 4 weeks with out international support . it depicts what could happen based on your apparent weaknesses ie 
no strategic depth 
biggest cities near border relative to Indian cities
smaller air Force with over reliance on small fleet of mostly outraged,f16
financial.constraints
smaller navy relative to.india

ps you could Force a,stalemate but your supplies,war material economy will.suffer over one month


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## PanzerKiel

The Maverick said:


> no India cannot erridcuate pakistan imo completely.
> my post depicts the loss to your infrastructure and military assets in war lasting 3 or 4 weeks with out international support . it depicts what could happen based on your apparent weaknesses ie
> no strategic depth
> biggest cities near border relative to Indian cities
> smaller air Force with over reliance on small fleet of mostly outraged,f16
> financial.constraints
> smaller navy relative to.india
> 
> ps you could Force a,stalemate but your supplies,war material economy will.suffer over one month


Every one of your points is debatable... Even of strategic depth.... Israel can say that it doesn't have strategic depth, but not us....

But then, my question still remains, why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan? Why hasn't it been already done? Why you are letting Pakistan to strengthen, allowing it initially to even become an atomic power....?

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## Pakistani Fighter

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


The Mountain Alliance is a crap. LOL Northern People of Pakistan are more prone to go on a war with India

Moreover, is it so easy to overrun Pakistan's Land Army? The ratio for both armies are about 1:2.4 approx and India would need 2x times more manpower to overrun Pak Army. Do you think India would leave behind 0.4 of its army against whole of China and Bangladesh??? 

Third Pakistan is going to get PL 15s in the future thereby improving the navy's defenses. India's P8s, SU 30s, and Mig29Ks will have a tough time targetting PN ships due to it. Moreover, PN has displayed its effectiveness by detecting Indians Subs 2 times in 2016 and 2019( PN will also be getting Advanced Maritime Aircrafts in the future). PAF jets are equipped with YJ 12s and C802s (with the possibility of acquiring more powerful missiles in near future) which can deny IN ships from closer to Pakistan shores. Pakistan also tested Harbah Anti-ship missile. Also, we have Zarb and other coastal anti-ship batteries which can make IN useless.

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## The Maverick

PanzerKiel said:


> Every one of your points is debatable... Even of strategic depth.... Israel can say that it doesn't have strategic depth, but not us....
> 
> But then, my question still remains, why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan? Why hasn't it been already done? Why you are letting Pakistan to strengthen, allowing it initially to even become an atomic power....?



your comparing Israel to pakistan 
is that serious,
do you understand they have the best equipped and trained military in the.world bar usa,... and unlimited,supply of Intel.and war material from usa .
you fight israel you fight usa period 
their traing western mentality you can never match neither can India. 
poor defence

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## arjunk

Basically what will happen assuming Pakistan has learnt its lessons from 47, 65, 71 and 99:


After recognising the threat of an Indian invasion, Pakistan quickly mobilises around 80% of its forces to the border within 24 hours.
Pakistani forces outnumber Indians in most sectors at this point. In these sectors offensives are launched 10-15km into Indian territory, primarily in Punjab and Rajasthan south-east of Rahim Yar Khan.
At the start of the war, PAF will be able to fly more aircraft at once than the IAF, especially in a single sector. IAF will find it difficult to provide air support while PAF's JF-17 Block I and II aircraft will provide some air support (Block III will likely be reserved for air to air operations against the Rafale and Su-30MKI.)
Pakistan also restarts armed support for Kashmiri militants. Despite India having a large amount of forces in Kashmir, they will deplete their manpower and resources on anti insurgent operations instead of fighting Pakistan. This will sort of even out the playing field and make a situation somewhat similar to East Pakistan.
Pakistan launches constant artillery attacks on Pathankot and Kargil, making it nearly impossible for additional Indian forces to move to Kashmir without taking losses.
Further artillery attacks are launched on Indian military bases near the border.
Kashmiri militants begin destroying Indian ammunition and food storages, attacking airbases, etc.
IAF and PAF take relatively equal losses because PAF retains the first shot capability against all Indian planes except the Rafale. Once most Rafales are taken down then PAF can dedicate more planes to close air support. However, considering the sheer numbers of IAF the majority of PAF operations will likely still be to shoot down Indian planes.
IAF has less AWACS planes than PAF, putting it at a huge disadvantage. Almost all of IAF's AWACS planes are shot down by PAF's PL-15. While PAF loses just as many, if not more to IAF meteors, they have more AWACS planes and can are impacted less.
Pakistan Navy manages to hold back an Indian blockade.
Indian forces are gradually beginning to outnumber Pakistanis across all sectors. It is at this point (around a week into the war) when Pakistan offers peace (which the international community would also want and pressurise India into accepting).

Assuming India has used up most of its ammunition (enough for 2-3 weeks of intense war last I checked) they will accept. Obviously, peace negotiations will go in Pakistan's favour. But what if the war takes a turn for the worse and India refuses to accept peace? What if India has enough ammunition for a month or more of war?


Indian forces now outnumber Pakistanis across all sectors. IBGs take a defensive stance for now, halting the Pakistani advance. Now IAF will fight until PAF is depleted of PL-15s and AIM-120Cs
After a few days to a week, PAF has run out of long range BVR missiles and a large portion of its F-16 and JF-17 fleet are damaged or destroyed. Despite IAF taking heavier losses, their leftover Su-30Mkis, MiG-29s, and Rafales (If any) will be sufficient against the remaining weakened JF-17s and F-16s. Now IAF can focus on close air support.
Indian forces will now try to launch attacks on Rahim Yar Khan. Because of a lack of PAF close air support, they are met with relative success, moving the frontline from 15km into Rajasthan to just 5 within a few days.
Indian IBGs begin to launch offensives across South Punjab and Northern Sindh.
Pakistani forces again slowly retreat, inflicting as many casualties on Indians as possiblein the process. Desert territory is pretty worthless anyway
Indians manage to retake all of the territory Pakistan occupied from them.
Pakistan Navy is mostly destroyed, India begins to inflict a blockade on Karachi.
India is approaching the "Green belt" of Sindh fast. Umerkot has fallen, and Indian forces are now within a few hundred metres of Rahim Yar Khan.
Now how the war progresses depends on whether the Chinese get involved or not. They are two scenarios. Either:

India crosses Pakistan's nuclear threshold by entering the Green Belt

Pakistan immediately launches a barrage of Nasr strikes. 45kt nuclear warheads vaporise entire Indian Brigades within hours.
Indian forces begin to retreat. Those that try to attack deeper into Pakistan are either outnumbered and low on ammunition or killed by heavily armed Pakistani civilians.
The ball is now in India's court. Either they can escalate and turn South Asia into a radioactive wasteland, or they can retreat while what remains of the Pak army can capture/retake as much territory as possible. Pakistani civilians will probably revolt in occupied areas and retake those places.
The international community will go batshit crazy now that nukes are in play. The US, China, Russia, and Europe will do everything in their power to stop the war ASAP. So it would end with Pakistan retaking most of its territory and perhaps even entering 1-5km into India (remember Nasr will not be used on Indian territory because by nuking our own territory India has little justification to retaliate on a strategic scale).
Remember the Kashmiri separatists? Yeah, with India taking so many losses they would pretty much have to give up in Kashmir.
India inevitably provokes the Chinese. Whether this is through a Brahmos strike that kills a Chinese engineer, a Naval attack on Gwadar or Karachi, or violating Pakistan's nuclear threshold.

China immediately launches a 3 pronged attack on Arunachal Pradesh and the Shiliguri corridor in Sikkim. Indian forces now have to travel 1000-2000km to another front, using infrastructure heavily damaged by Pakistani strikes. What remains of the IAF's 4+ generation fleet rushes to Northeast India.
The majority of Indian forces move away from Pakistan; the Pakistani military is of little threat to them, they believe. They have also made significant enough progress into Pakistan that they cannot advance more without crossing the nuclear threshold anyway, and losing a few towns and villages won't make much of a difference to India's victory on this front.
China makes rapid advances in Northeast India, moving 3-5km in just 1 day. Indian military presence here is practically nonexistent because of how they threw massive amounts of soldiers to numerically overwhelm Pakistan.
Chinese J-20s damage and destroy almost every Indian military airbase and ammunition depot in Northern India. Most of the IAF is destroyed or grounded in this large wave of strikes.
Indian infrastructure is also badly damaged.
Now most of the Indian army is neither in Pakistan or in Northeast India; It is stranded in the middle and being bombarded while mobilising.
China captures all of Sikkim within a week of intervention. Northeast India has been cut off.
The PLA arrives in Pakistan with full air support, and begins assisting the Pakistan army in re taking all lost territory.
PLA aircraft and coastal defence systems equipped with anti ship missiles begin damaging Indian carrier groups and other ships off the coast of Pakistan
PLAAF begins massive cluster bombing of Indian troops while they are mobilising
PLA launches massive offensive across the Himalayas.
PLAAF achieves air supremacy over India.
After another week, the Indian Navy begins retreating to the Bay of Bengal as the PLAN is going to arrive soon. Moreover, Pakistan has taken back all its territory and captured territory deep inside Punjab and Kashmir.
PLA breaks through the Himalayas and enters Haryana and Bihar.
Indian nuclear sites are disabled with a massive cyber attack which plunges the whole country into darkness
I don't need to further describe how badly India will be defeated in a two front war.

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## SQ8

Irfan Baloch said:


> @SQ8
> do you want us to give it our own spin?
> or just comment on the scenario and how it plays out?
> 
> I will forward this page to see ifI can get some view from the veterans who served in the areas.


I really just had thoughts in mind - but, this could be fun if we gave our own spin provided we make it interesting.

for e.g.
while we don’t need to do 16 narratives , I recall the flight sim thing I did years before through a friend where we kept changing scenarios to see what would happen with screenshots thrown in.

After all, if this sim is good enough for BaE and their customers it should be for the discerning tastes of PDF?

What say ye @JamD @HRK @Dazzler @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Bilal. ? Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?

One can just start off with the next "opening scenario" - whatever you wish to paint it and lets see how it comes out.
"
*Mission*
Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
*Execution*
Using aircraft based at PAF Murid, Minhas, and Skardu, neutralize all stated high value targets as well as other threats such as SAMs and Indian CAP aircraft. In addition, a Hatf 7 cruise missile battery is available for use.
Friendly Forces
PAF Murid
6x Mirage IIIO (F/A)
6x F-16CJ+
4x Z-10
1x Falcon 20 OECM
PAF Minhas
8x JF-17 Blk. 3
6x F-16AM
1x Saab 2000 AEW&C
PAF Skardu
4x Mirage 5F

Do the same for enemy forces - where and how many and then let the sims algorithms do the rest.

I reckon it might be more fun than the usual hyperboles we get??

For all interested - lets do a cut off time for entries by 11AM PST 5/16 and then Ill enter into the sim to generate the outcome

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## JamD

SQ8 said:


> I really just had thoughts in mind - but, this could be fun if we gave our own spin provided we make it interesting.
> 
> for e.g.
> while we don’t need to do 16 narratives , I recall the flight sim thing I did years before through a friend where we kept changing scenarios to see what would happen with screenshots thrown in.
> 
> After all, if this sim is good enough for BaE and their customers it should be for the discerning tastes of PDF?
> 
> What say ye @JamD @HRK @Dazzler @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Bilal. ? Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?
> 
> One can just start off with the next "opening scenario" - whatever you wish to paint it and lets see how it comes out.
> "
> *Mission*
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> *Execution*
> Using aircraft based at PAF Murid, Minhas, and Skardu, neutralize all stated high value targets as well as other threats such as SAMs and Indian CAP aircraft. In addition, a Hatf 7 cruise missile battery is available for use.
> Friendly Forces
> PAF Murid
> 6x Mirage IIIO (F/A)
> 6x F-16CJ+
> 4x Z-10
> 1x Falcon 20 OECM
> PAF Minhas
> 8x JF-17 Blk. 3
> 6x F-16AM
> 1x Saab 2000 AEW&C
> PAF Skardu
> 4x Mirage 5F
> 
> Do the same for enemy forces - where and how many and then let the sims algorithms do the rest.
> 
> I reckon it might be more fun than the usual hyperboles we get??
> 
> For all interested - lets do a cut off time for entries by 11AM PST 5/16 and then Ill enter into the sim to generate the outcome


As far as I know Murid is primarily a UAV base. I imagine it can used as an FOB but I don't think it's equipped to handle mirages and f16s. Why not Sargodha?

Also speaking of UAVs, I reckon those will play a role too. I find it weird that ISPR announced am armed UAV test back in 2015 and total silence ever since. Maybe it's just that we tested an import and have been trying to make a local version ever since. Or that we do have a deployed capability that we choose not to advertise (like our EW). If it's a 2024 timeframe I expect Burraqs, Shapar Is and IIs, to form the first wave of intelligence gathering/decoy/strike package, especially since Murid is right there.

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## niaz

It is highly unlikely that Chinese armed forces would join Pakistani forces in their war with India because this could result in the USA coming out on the Indian side. Chinese help would therefore be probably limited to providing material support to Pakistan. Saudis, Indonesians, or any other country coming out openly on Pakistan's side! Perish the thought, all have too much at stake and would not risk Indian wrath.

Whatever may or may not be the result of the simulation; the disparity in men & material between the armed forces of India & Pakistan coupled with the enormous economic strength of India must inevitably lead to an Indian victory in any conflict lasting for more than a few weeks despite the Chinese help to Pakistan. This means that the nuclear threshold is likely to be crossed within a couple of weeks of any full-scale conflict.

If this were to happen, even with the active help of the USA, at least a dozen or so of the Pakistani nuclear-armed missiles would find their targets with a lot more of the Indian missiles destroying Pakistani cities in the retaliatory attacks. Pakistan would be reduced to rubble but India would also be damaged to an extent that it would take at least 25 to 30 years if not more to recover. Hence Indian ambition of becoming a global player flushed down the drain.

Therefore, in my humble opinion, all incursions by Indian armed forces into Pakistan territory must be retaliated with equal intensity and without delay despite the risk of serious consequences. If Pakistan has to go, she needs to go down fighting bravely. I am, however, of the opinion that superpowers would ensure that any all-out war between India & Pakistanis is stopped before the nuclear threshold is reached.

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> As far as I know Murid is primarily a UAV base. I imagine it can used as an FOB but I don't think it's equipped to handle mirages and f16s. Why not Sargodha?
> 
> Also speaking of UAVs, I reckon those will play a role too. I find it weird that ISPR announced am armed UAV test back in 2015 and total silence ever since. Maybe it's just that we tested an import and have been trying to make a local version ever since. Or that we do have a deployed capability that we choose not to advertise (like our EW). If it's a 2024 timeframe I expect Burraqs, Shapar Is and IIs, to form the first wave of intelligence gathering/decoy/strike package, especially since Murid is right there.


We can add all of that to a simulation. I think the outcome may be interesting to most members

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## notorious_eagle

l


PanzerKiel said:


> Every one of your points is debatable... Even of strategic depth.... Israel can say that it doesn't have strategic depth, but not us....p
> 
> But then, my question still remains, why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan? Why hasn't it been already done? Why you are letting Pakistan to strengthen, allowing it initially to even become an atomic power....?



You're making too much sense and asking deep questions to @The Maverick and Indians in general for which they have no answers. There is a lack of ability to introspect and think critically. 

If you look at the mindset of @The Maverick and other Indians in general, it perfectly reflects the over confidence and ego they want to showcase as a nation. This is to the benefit of Pakistan because if your enemy underestimates you and overestimates his own self, that benefits us as was perfectly demonstrated on Feb 27 where the smaller force overwhelmed the superior force through better planning, training and tactics. 

The concept of self reflection or introspection does not really exist in India. It was perfectly evident after Feb 27 where the Indian Government to save face claimed that WC Abhi shot down an F16 before he went down. Nobody in India bothered or dared to question the Government narrative that if WC Abhi shot down an F16, why were all his A2A missiles recovered intact? Or it was demonstrated again when the PLA killed 20 Indian troops. Immediately the Indian Government released a number of 43 Chinese killed. Nobody in India bothered to ask the question that if we killed 43 PLA soldiers; how in the hell did the PLA manage to kill the Brigade Commander (a Lt Col), captured his 2nd in command (another Lt Col), 1 Major and 3 Captains. Essentially, the entire leadership of the Brigade was knocked out but Indians still believe they killed 43 PLA soldiers. 

I think overall, this psyche and the Indian psychotic obsession with Pakistan is a great case study for any aspiring Psychology student. The more the underestimate us, the more it benefits us. Its amusing to see how the SU30MKI that was hailed by the Indians as 'Raptor of Asia' now being called the 'AMRAAM Dodger'.

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## Bilal.

SQ8 said:


> We can add all of that to a simulation. I think the outcome may be interesting to most members


Can we add MRLS (A100 ) and artillery for engagement and channeling of armor columns into kill zone(s)?

Also the same can be used in addition to air elements to soften the FOBs if with range (120km).

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## The Eagle

SQ8 said:


> Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?



Totally agreed Chief. Went through half of OP. Currently in traveling mode. I will joining you in details soon. It is in-fact an interesting exercise.

On short note, do we have an option to fly some diversion sorties in such mission SIM or is it just one mission at a time based execution? Otherwise, fighter sweep missions to be added as well.


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## Eagle_Nest

What a crap! No rule of turkey, iran, afghanistan.
Where is nasar and fateh


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## SQ8

Bilal. said:


> Can we add MRLS (A100 ) and artillery for engagement and channeling of armor columns into kill zone(s)?
> 
> Also the same can be used in addition to air elements to soften the FOBs if with range (120km).


Ask for whatever, and Ill see if they are simulating it.


The Eagle said:


> Totally agreed Chief. Went through half of OP. Currently in traveling mode. I will joining you in details soon. It is in-fact an interesting exercise.
> 
> On short note, do we have an option to fly some diversion sorties in such mission SIM or is it just one mission at a time based execution? Otherwise, fighter sweep missions to be added as well.


It accommodates for everything


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## LeGenD

The Maverick said:


> Even a short war will.bring Pakistan.to it's knees,so quickly .
> reason being all.your big cities and infrastructure is near the border. The impact via power black outs and no flights. no telephone lines will hit you guys so hard..Lahore Islamabad even Karachi are too close to the fire line.
> your forex,reserve is like 5% of India.s and the indian navy will.try and blockade you..
> 
> indian commercial.cities Delhi Mumbai Chennai Bangalore are 1000.miles,away..
> throwing the odd missle will.be like needle at an elephant.
> and no one's using nukes, you have no idea,where arihant is with it's nuclear strike missles.
> it will.be attritional war but as I have always said finish the f16 fleet and the air power goes to India..Even if 100.mki and mirages are lost take out 50.or 60.f16 and it's over..
> that will.be the plan I'm.sure along with sea lines,denile and hitting Karachi and gwader hard.
> I doubt India will.take land more search and destroy your military assets and bases,


*FYI

1.* Islamabad (and Rawalpindi) are beyond the reach of Indian Army Artillery.
*2.* Lahore is vulnerable to Indian Army Artillery (granted); Amritsar is vulnerable to Pakistan Army Artillery in turn (whoops...).
*3.* Karachi is beyond the reach of Indian Army Artillery as well.

Following are largest cities of India:






*Sultana and Satyanarayana (2020)

4.* PAF can conduct sorties over Indian cities such as New Dehli, Jaipur and Mumbai respectively.





LINK: https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2019/03/01/pakistan-f-16-fighters-terrorists.html

Notice those Conformal Fuel Tanks?

Every F-16 in the inventory of PAF is modernized with Block 52+ (18 in total) and MLU Block 40 (57 in total). These jet fighters can be equipped with JDAMs (large inventory) to strike at targets of value in Indian cities such as New Dehli, Jaipur and Mumbai respectively.

*5.* Mumbai is also within reach of Pakistan Navy and Ballistic Missiles of Pakistan Army.
*6.* Every Indian city including Nagpur, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata are within reach of Ballistic Missiles of Pakistan Army by the way.

- - -

Indian Army can choose to *shell* Lahore and Sialkot from across the border but Pakistan Army will *counter-shell* positions of Indian Army (and possibly Amritsar) to dissuade India in return.

If India decides to escalate clashes by attacking other Pakistani cities than PAF will come into play* and Pakistan Army will introduce cruise missiles and TBMs in the mix to soften Indian defenses across the border.

*Jet fighters can/will take cues from sophisticated AEW&C aircraft of PAF to engage opposing jet fighters of IAF in the BVR regime. And even if it comes down to WVR combat situations, skills of Pakistani pilots is a topic in itself. PAF is well-equipped and well-maintained for regional challenges in the present.

IAF *can* damage PAF in aerial clashes but at a great cost to its assets and operational capacity in the present.

*Q1:* Is India willing to bear heavy losses of IAF in its efforts to bomb Pakistani cities?
*Q2*: You also mentioned INS Arihant but is India willing to risk nuclear war with Pakistan?

In either case, be prepared to take heavy losses.

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## PanzerKiel

The Maverick said:


> your comparing Israel to pakistan
> is that serious,
> do you understand they have the best equipped and trained military in the.world bar usa,... and unlimited,supply of Intel.and war material from usa .
> you fight israel you fight usa period
> their traing western mentality you can never match neither can India.
> poor defence


Read my post again, I was referring Israel with regards to your point of strategic depth, not about training, equipment or war material.

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## Goritoes

PanzerKiel said:


> Read my post again, I was referring Israel with regards to your point of strategic depth, not about training, equipment or war material.



You really expect him to be smart enough to understand the point you were making? The jokes on you my friend.

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## PanzerKiel

Goritoes said:


> You really expect him to be smart enough to understand the point you were making? The jokes on you my friend.


My bad, but then, I try to remain optimistic, however, in this case, he has already shot his bolt.

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## Goritoes

PanzerKiel said:


> My bad, but then, I try to remain optimistic, however, in this case, he has already shot his bolt.



There is no point in arguing with them, their brain whatever is left of it has been washed with Modi Detergent and they are living in their own fantasy world, if a humiliating defeat on 27th Feb couldn't open their eyes, nothing will.

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## 313ghazi

This read like some Bakht fan fiction. Who wrote this BS?


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## TheDebSahab

The recent student protests against exams were stronger than PTM.

This scenario is taking these cheap twitter warriors and exaggerating them a THOUSAND fold.

This was unrealistic and straight up a waste of time from the get-go.

If anything, the northern people are EAGERLY waiting for a war with India.


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## LeGenD

The Maverick said:


> your comparing Israel to pakistan
> is that serious,
> do you understand they have the best equipped and trained military in the.world bar usa,... and unlimited,supply of Intel.and war material from usa .
> you fight israel you fight usa period
> their traing western mentality you can never match neither can India.
> poor defence


An Facepalm moment...

The man you are responding to is a Professional. Do you think he does not know about Israel and others? You completely missed his point as well.

What do your take of the term _strategic depth_ in military terms?

*IDF* is a powerful (well-equipped) Force no doubt *but* Sir @PanzerKiel is 100% correct in pointing out that Israel is lacking in _strategic depth_.

Pakistan does have _strategic depth_ however. This is smoking gun pointer for you in fact.

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## CrazyZ

Whole scenario ignores that Pakistan has tactical nuclear weapons at its disposable and will not hesitate to use them if the front lines crack. As for the navel and air assessments.....massively underestimates how many losses India will take, IMO.

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## 313ghazi

It's utterly ridiculous. 

1. It creates a fake tribal mountain entity to weaken Pakistan. 

2. It assumes that Americans will die for someone else. Americans only die for oil. 

3. It completely ignores Gwadar. 

4. It completely ignores the fact we will have a much bigger submarine force than the Indians. 

5. It ignores the fact we have cruise missiles mounted on ships, subs, planes and ground based to keep the Indian navy at bay. 

6. It ignores the fact we have a huge amount of missiles ready to decimate Indian airbase as well as tactical nukes to be used on advancing forces. 

7. It ignores the fact we have a huge jihadi population armed to the teeth willing to use AK's in traffic disputes. We won't be sat quietly during a war.

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## CrazyZ

313ghazi said:


> It's utterly ridiculous.
> 
> 1. It creates a fake tribal mountain entity to weaken Pakistan.
> 
> 2. It assumes that Americans will die for someone else. Americans only die for oil.
> 
> 3. It completely ignores Gwadar.
> 
> 4. It completely ignores the fact we will have a much bigger submarine force than the Indians.
> 
> 5. It ignores the fact we have cruise missiles mounted on ships, subs, planes and ground based to keep the Indian navy at bay.
> 
> 6. It ignores the fact we have a huge amount of missiles ready to decimate Indian airbase as well as tactical nukes to be used on advancing forces.
> 
> 7. It ignores the fact we have a huge jihadi population armed to the teeth willing to use AK's in traffic disputes. We won't be sat quietly during a war.


Not sure who ran the sim....but it probably uses outdated assessments of the forces. Maybe from 20 years ago.


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## Arsalan345

I believe we can Destroy entire india. we can destroy them even after full destruction of pakistan. how we can do this? it's pretty simple. people call me crazy but this is how they should think. Disperse! Annex! infiltrate!

Whole scenario is reality! we can't win without excellent air support of friends. Air domination is key but if friends join, others join enemy camp and that's it. Pakistan should think about new methods. Above is a slight hint of what Pakistan can do even after total destruction of Pakistan itself.


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## CrazyZ

Arsalan345 said:


> I believe we can Destroy entire india. we can destroy them even after full destruction of pakistan. how we can do this? it's pretty simple. people call me crazy but this is how they should think. Disperse! Annex! infiltrate!
> 
> Whole scenario is reality! we can't win without excellent air support of friends. Air domination is key but if friends join, others join enemy camp and that's it. Pakistan should think about new methods. Above is a slight hint of what Pakistan can do even after total destruction of Pakistan itself.


Bio weapons....look how vulnerable they are.


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## Genghis khan1

Few points: 

#1. Pakistan is not stupid to attack another country specially US when already in a conflict. 

- US military will lose significant advantage once it’s satellites are down, infact it will be deadly and unwise for US to continue a war so far from US mainland.

#2. No mention or use of tactical nukes. (Wich means, there won’t be Indian victory in phase I)

#3. Pakistan will not wait that long (outskirts of Islamabad) to launch a nuclear strike. I think once major city like Lahore or Karachi is compromised, Nukes will start flying. 

#4. Chinese are not fighting Pakistan’s war, nor is US fighting war for India.

#5. Russia will supply India, China will supply Pakistan.

#6. Mountain Alliance is some wishful horse-shit. Although Pakistan use this a warning and keep an eye on group like PTM.

#7. Muslims countries may support Pakistan in limited way, no one is fighting war for Pakistan. Some countries will also support India.

#8. Pakistan will be at disadvantage due to weak purchasing power. It will be hard for Pakistan to sustain a conflict longer than few months.

#9. Subs are no that easier to track and destroy, plus I wouldn’t be surprised if Pakistan is storing Nukes on Sub or another friendly country.

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## SQ8

CrazyZ said:


> Not sure who ran the sim....but it probably uses outdated assessments of the forces. Maybe from 20 years ago.


No those are fairly accurate - but put in handicaps like some mass defections and insurgency and any scenario will make Pakistan fail.


LeGenD said:


> An Facepalm moment...
> 
> The man you are responding to is a Professional. Do you think he does not know about Israel and others? You completely missed his point as well.
> 
> What do your take of the term _strategic depth_ in military terms?
> 
> *IDF* is a powerful (well-equipped) Force no doubt *but* Sir @PanzerKiel is 100% correct in pointing out that Israel is lacking in _strategic depth_.
> 
> Pakistan does have _strategic depth_ however. This is smoking gun pointer for you in fact.


You’re going to burn out yourself before his copy pasting of usual troll points finishes off. His entire purpose is to post fantasies and derail threads for his own enjoyment - I don’t want this bhakt dungster on this thread.

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## CrazyZ

SQ8 said:


> No those are fairly accurate - but put in handicaps like some mass defections and insurgency and any scenario will make Pakistan fail.
> 
> You’re going to burn out yourself before his copy pasting of usual troll points finishes off. His entire purpose is to post fantasies and derail threads for his own enjoyment - I don’t want this bhakt dungster on this thread.


This war game is useful in understanding the potential thinking of an opposing force. In general, Americans have over estimated India over the last 20 years. Pakistan was in worse shape 20 years ago...today India's advantage is still their....but not as big many Westerners think.

On the economics side, conventional economics will go out the door in a big war. Command economics does best when fighting in a big war. You think USSR and Germany stopped to consider exchange reserves in 1943?


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## LeGenD

Genghis khan1 said:


> - US military will lose significant advantage once it’s satellites are down, infact it will be deadly and unwise for US to continue a war so far from US mainland.


This is overreaching on your part. American military-purpose satellites are neither easy to jam and nor easy to destroy due to different factors. Kinetic ASAT attempts are tempting in theory but resulting debris can jeopardize additional satellites in the mix; debris does not differentiates between Friend and Foe. I can expand a lot on this theme but this discussion shall remain on track.



Genghis khan1 said:


> #4. Chinese are not fighting Pakistan’s war, nor is US fighting war for India.


This is more like it.

WE can expect China to provide satellite feeds to Pakistan, and USA to provide satellite feeds to India at minimum. China might do cyber attacks in India as well. USA might decide to deter China from taking significant steps of its own subject to how valuable India is in American calculus.

Typical reaction of the international community to Indo-Pak escalation(s) is to diffuse tensions between both sides. This happened not long ago.

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## Genghis khan1

LeGenD said:


> This is overreaching on your part. American military-purpose satellites are neither easy to jam and nor easy to destroy due to different factors. Kinetic ASAT attempts are tempting in theory but resulting debris can jeopardize additional satellites in the mix; debris does not differentiates between Friend and Foe. I can expand a lot on this theme but this discussion shall remain on track.


I kept it simple. Yap, there will be space Debris. Satellite may have defense Mechanisms build into them. But in all out war, they are going down. Now US has thousands of additional (commercial) satellite in space, so who ever wants to start this game, Better have several thousand ASAT weapons. US most probably has a contingency plan to operate without Satellite.



LeGenD said:


> This is more like it.
> 
> WE can expect China to provide satellite feeds to Pakistan, and USA to provide satellite feeds to India at minimum. China might do cyber attacks in India as well. USA might decide to deter China from taking significant steps of its own subject to how valuable India is in American calculus.
> 
> Typical reaction of the international community to Indo-Pak escalation(s) is to diffuse tensions between both sides. This happened not long ago.


Why are we discounting Russian involvement? Unless Indians are willing and ready to launch attack onto Chinese mainland, I don’t see US providing India with anything expect for support for already sold items. Only exception could be naval intel on Chinese boats in the area.


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## vishwambhar

UDAYCAMPUS said:


> You'll have a bigger submarine force than Indian navy? Can you provide sources to prove this claim?
> Bydway huge jihadi population?



They have only 3 modern Agosta 90 Bs and 2 very old Agosta 70 versions.... With 8 modern AIP equipped Chinese submarines joining by 2028.... Even if they don't retire two old Agosta 70 by 2028 then also they will have 13 submarines against

4 HDW (I'm assuming they also remains in service till the end of this decade) 

8 kilos

6 scorpeans

1 Akula or maybe 2

3 Arihant class

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## SQ8

UDAYCAMPUS said:


> You'll have a bigger submarine force than Indian navy? Can you provide sources to prove this claim?
> Bydway huge jihadi population?


He is actually not wrong - because these snakes exist for such battles. If there is none then they like juiced up drug addicts need violence which they enact on their own countrymen.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon now is beyond the control of the state as such.

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## 313ghazi

SQ8 said:


> He is actually not wrong - because these snakes exist for such battles. If there is none then they like juiced up drug addicts need violence which they enact on their own countrymen.
> 
> Unfortunately, this phenomenon now is beyond the control of the state as such.



Forget just the jihadi typical awam is armed to the teeth. My uncle has an AK for every man in our household. It's the AJK version of a house alarm.

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## 313ghazi

Also India will only keep 3 of the kilo class the rest are being scrapped. You're only getting in scorpene. Only 2 of the old German subs will be upgraded. The Ahrint class is being trialled. 

6 + 3 +2 = 11

You have 1 akula on lease, the lease ends next year. 









India to retire first Kilo-class submarine this year


But its submarine woes are unlikely to end soon as it stares at a lost decade of its underwater arm




www.indiatoday.in





We will have 13 subs, indian calculations didn't include didn't include our midget submarines either.


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## CrazyZ

313ghazi said:


> Also India will only keep 3 of the kilo class the rest are being scrapped. You're only getting in scorpene. Only 2 of the old German subs will be upgraded. The Ahrint class is being trialled.
> 
> 6 + 3 +2 = 11
> 
> You have 1 akula on lease, the lease ends next year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> India to retire first Kilo-class submarine this year
> 
> 
> But its submarine woes are unlikely to end soon as it stares at a lost decade of its underwater arm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.indiatoday.in
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We will have 13 subs, indian calculations didn't include didn't include our midget submarines either.


You should add that India has more coastline to defend. The PLAN doesn't have to get directly involved to have impact. It just needs to send a small battle group into the Indian ocean and India will have to deploy at least 50% of its fleet to counter. Same in the north on the ground and in the air.


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## Varunastra

313ghazi said:


> Also India will only keep 3 of the kilo class the rest are being scrapped. You're only getting in scorpene. Only 2 of the old German subs will be upgraded. The Ahrint class is being trialled.
> 
> 6 + 3 +2 = 11
> 
> You have 1 akula on lease, the lease ends next year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> India to retire first Kilo-class submarine this year
> 
> 
> But its submarine woes are unlikely to end soon as it stares at a lost decade of its underwater arm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.indiatoday.in
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We will have 13 subs, indian calculations didn't include didn't include our midget submarines either.


So we will retire our subs while Pakistan keep all of it's fleet? We can refit more as needed, your link says that we might refit 3 more so say 6 kilo class subs. Also Arihant total number is 4, will expect all of them to be operational by first of this decade (arihant is operational and arighat is in trials or maybe secretly operational), we also have made a deal for another Akula class SSN with Russia that will join our navy soon enough in first half of the decade. 
So even being sceptical of further orders and acquisitions/refits we can say at the very least - 
6 scopene SSKs
4 arihant SSBNs
6-8 kilo class SSKs
Let's say 2 german ones (not sure) 
1 akula class SSN
Ofcourse we have other future projects in line including new ssbs, ssns, and conventional subs. It's written in your link too, we had option to go for more scorpenes and kilos but decided to go for indigenous option. 
This wiki page has a list of future planned platforms 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_the_Indian_Navy


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## 313ghazi

UDAYCAMPUS said:


> So we will retire our subs while Pakistan keep all of it's fleet? We can refit more as needed, your link says that we might refit 3 more so say 6 kilo class subs. Also Arihant total number is 4, will expect all of them to be operational by first of this decade (arihant is operational and arighat is in trials or maybe secretly operational), we also have made a deal for another Akula class SSN with Russia that will join our navy soon enough in first half of the decade.
> So even being sceptical of further orders and acquisitions/refits we can say at the very least -
> 6 scopene SSKs
> 4 arihant SSBNs
> 6-8 kilo class SSKs
> Let's say 2 german ones (not sure)
> 1 akula class SSN
> Ofcourse we have other future projects in line including new ssbs, ssns, and conventional subs. It's written in your link too, we had option to go for more scorpenes and kilos but decided to go for indigenous option.
> This wiki page has a list of future planned platforms
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_the_Indian_Navy



Babu, it took your country 14 years to sign a deal for 126 MRCA, which eventually was only 36 aircraft . I've been hearing about it for nearly 2 decades - 126 rafale, f-18, euro fighter, su-35, mig-25, gripen - unimaginable powa for IAF, only to get 36 planes after nearly 20 years of tamasha. 

Let's leave out the fantasy line ups. 

The article I posted clearly states the numbers of submarines will not increase over the next decade. 

Any masala news about secretly operating submarines should be left on YouTube where it belongs.

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## Varunastra

313ghazi said:


> Babu, it took your country 14 years to sign a deal for 126 MRCA, which eventually was only 36 aircraft . I've been hearing about it for nearly 2 decades - 126 rafale, f-18, euro fighter, su-35, mig-25, gripen - unimaginable powa for IAF, only to get 36 planes after nearly 20 years of tamasha.
> 
> Let's leave out the fantasy line ups.
> 
> The article I posted clearly states the numbers of submarines will not increase over the next decade.
> 
> Any masala news about secretly operating submarines should be left on YouTube where it belongs.


MMRCA is a different ball game with foreign players. Subs will not increase meaning? The fleet I have mentioned is one we will have by first half of the decade as they are either currently operational or under construction apart from akula class that will be leased, the SSBNs being completely indigenous. 6 scorpenes are coming and it's common knowledge that kilos are getting refit along with few of German ones. We can't afford to decommission our conventional fleet now so they'll be getting refits. 
About Arighat SSBN it will be commissioned this year. The other two SSBNs which have basically double the SLBM carrying capacity will be inducted within first half of the decade. 
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/...ubmarine-arighat-to-be-commissioned-this-year
India is prioritizing it's sub fleet over surface now as seen by us giving preference to nuke subs over our third aircraft carrier
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/...tised-over-second-indigenous-aircraft-carrier
I am not even taking into account our future plans of indigenous SSNS, SSBNs and SSKs, only what is currently present /in advance stage of building. 
By the time all of Pakistan's Chinese subs are inducted, you can expect few more of our indigenous/foreign subs in our fleet.


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## Irfan Baloch

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.




here is my take on the first post for all its worth. 

*Border skirmish.*



it seems that the plot is taken from American war in Afghanistan from early years,

the scenario suggests that the insurgents are also fighting Pakistani forces as well but their main focus is on the Indian forces. they attack and then retreat back into Pakistani territory, much like the early 2000s where Americans used to complain that Afghan Taliban were operating from Waziristan and attacked coalition forces across the border in Afghanistan and retreated back into Pakistan.



what is the basis of this premise? have the insurgents become hostile towards Pakistan too? the armed struggle has been historically only against Indian occupation. the fully Independent Kashmir sentiment exists in Pakistani administered Kashmir but it is only restricted to verbal opposition and mild procession. it has never been violent. I don't understand why are insurgents attacking Pakistani forces? does the plot assume that Pakistani forces are compelled by UN resolution or somehow a TTP version of Kashmir has come into being that has decided to fight Pakistan.



moving on. the Indians are reported to have made two incursions into Pakistan without "consequences" this seems like the plot taken from the Indian movie Uri and the so called surgical strike of Balakot.







Fight One





result (to keep in mind)

3 Indian FOBs destroyed

SAM sites destroyed

Radars in the region out of service



Fight two

India to target PAF (bases and assets)



it appears that the Indian mission is considered a success. in this case India should have complete air domination and PAF back must be broken. the playout assumes that it is achieved despite PAF taking out Indian air defence targets and was in state of high alert. was it overwhelmed by the multipronged onslaught by 126 assets (mix of support and attack crafts unknown). obviously it leads to invasion/ incursion into Pakistan by Indian land forces without much risk from PAF retaliation. it seems that the outcome is already agreed by the think tank that India must be final winner.



the mountain alliance and leading conflict is thrown in a s a good measure by the think tank to explain stretching of Pak military resources. this shows ignorance on part of the writers about the reality of northern areas and Azad Kashmir that is staunch supporter of Pakistan.



the claim about "rebels" siezing control of Pakistan strategic missiles and moving them all the way to the mountains also seems inspired from the trick where the clothes of the characters in Indian movies suddenly change with a dance number.

* 

Fight in the south and Seas*

No further comment there because a stunning victory is handed over to India with almost complete destruction of Pakistan naval forces.

if the nuclear threshold was not crossed before already then it was now or never when the think tank's plot (Indian ships) started sinking Pakistani ships enjoying without any mention of loss due to plot armor. another Indian dance / song number is in order.





*Chinese active involvement*

I agree with your assessment. nothing much to add to this. Indians must not only be pushed back to their borders but also suffer substantial losses that can potentially cripple their campaign.



*American participation and Indian victory*

this is where the scenario goes to the comic level which should give a hard on to any worthy Indian internet warrior.





*My commentary*



the scenario assumed that both countries continued to fight on all fronts for weeks inflicting heavy losses and then a cheat is applied against Pakistan through "defection" and formation of mountain alliance. Indians are awarded unqualified victories and Pakistan is banned by the authors to use conventional or nuclear tectical missiles against the Indian formations which has gain prominence in the Pakistani response to Indian cold start doctrine.



in short if Pakistani side can address the following then it can swing the result to its favor (while the think tanks are not looking )


prevent the Mountain alliance from forming
after degrading Indian air defences in its first retaliatory strike, don't sit back to see all its bases destroyed by IAF but follow up with pre-emptive attacks to force IAF in complete defensive position.
avoid direct or indirect confrontation with America (even if it suits Indians, lock up all fumbling idiot Pakistani generals in the toilet for good measure until Americans are gone). offer free corridor for Americans to leave India safely. halt all air operations while American citizens are being flown out so that Indians cant play the "spice jet" episode (where an Indian commercial airliner was deliberately given a military sounding call sign causing PAF to shoot it down in error ).
meanwhile use any indirect help from Turkey (missed by authors), China and KSA.
threaten with immanent nuclear strike on Indian forces if they dont remain on their side of borders along Lahore and Bahalpur area etc.

the outcome of this conflict depends on the following. India has men and martial advantage but as an invader it needs much more. whereas Pakistan is sufficient from defensive point of view



*war stamina*

economic sustainability

military power

supplies

public / political mood

international support

nuclear threshold



an all out conflict cant last for more than few weeks and has to come to an end due to international involvement (diplomatic/ economic) to avoid crossing the nuclear threshold.

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## CriticalThinker02

So let me get this straight, Indian Army just steps foot inside Pakistan and half the Pak Army defects to the mountain alliance like really? and wtf is even a mountain alliance? and this "simulation" was based after consulting with real strategists and analysts, and this guy got 7 positive ratings for posting this garbage UNBELIEVABLE.

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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

@SQ8 you could rename the 'Mountain Alliance' the 'Islamic Emirate of Khurasan'

Do it. You know you want to. Zaid Hamid endorses this message.

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## mqur1963

WELL WAAR IS COMING VERY SOON VERY SOON IT START OUT OF NO WEAR WATCH MY WORD.
BY 2023 THIRD TEMPLE HAVE TO START BUILDING . SO PAKISTAN HAS TO BE WIPE OUT AS PER ZIONIST

THEY ARE PLAYING THER GAME ''ALLAH 'IS PLAYING TO AND WINNER IS ALLAH'

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## SQ8

Waqas said:


> So let me get this straight, Indian Army just steps foot inside Pakistan and half the Pak Army defects to the mountain alliance like really? and wtf is even a mountain alliance? and this "simulation" was based after consulting with real strategists and analysts, and this guy got 7 positive ratings for posting this garbage UNBELIEVABLE.


Yes - must be popular guy considering he actually talked on how ridiculous this was. I suggest you stay as far as you can from this garbage


Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> @SQ8 you could rename the 'Mountain Alliance' the 'Islamic Emirate of Khurasan'
> 
> Do it. You know you want to. Zaid Hamid endorses this message.


It is rather spurious how they came up with this massive insurgency - but, I have the material I need from members to build a “right scenariol and will post it by 18th or 19th. 
video and all

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## Chacha_Facebooka

Dude. Skirmishes happen all the time. If a full blown war ever starts, it will be over in an hour. City populations will immediately die. Folks in rural area will follow due to radiation. Death of crops will cause a worldwide famine causing even more deaths.


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## BRAVO_

Amateurs talk about strategy and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics and sustainability in warfare

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## arjunk

BRAVO_ said:


> Amateurs talk about strategy and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics and sustainability in warfare



Pakistani cities, industries, and other resources are mostly within 150km of the Indian border. This is especially true in North Punjab/Kashmir areas. North Punjab also has the densest road and rail network in the country. Pakistani cities and towns can inflict large amounts of damage on an occupying army because the population is heavily armed. Bringing ammunition and resources to the frontlines is not a problem.

On the other hand, the same cannot be said for India. Logistics and sustainability have always been a problem for them. During Brasstacks and 2001-2002, the Pakistan Army mobilised far faster than their Indian counterparts and at a fraction of the cost. Even in 2019, they were videos of Indian tanks getting stuck in crappy roads while moving to the Pakistan border.

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## notorious_eagle

Bilal. said:


> Can we add MRLS (A100 ) and artillery for engagement and channeling of armor columns into kill zone(s)?
> 
> Also the same can be used in addition to air elements to soften the FOBs if with range (120km).



Good Points. The addition of Armor, Artillery and MRLS is essential to build a credible scenario for this exercise. 

The IA had a huge advantage in the face of Smerch. They could hammer PA Armored formation being mobilized to meet the IA Armored thrust without the risk of counter battery. This advantage was eliminated when the A-100's were procured in sizable numbers. 

PA and IA war-planners do expect major artillery and armored duels between both sides. Majority of the casualties suffered by both the Soviets and the Nazis were from artillery fire. I would expect both Pakistan and India, peer level enemies to use artillery to deadly effect to not only support Armored thrusts but also inflict punitive losses on each other.

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## Salman876

On a serious note, few "Tea is Fantastic" type videos can avoid full scale war.


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## Bilal.

notorious_eagle said:


> Good Points. The addition of Armor, Artillery and MRLS is essential to build a credible scenario for this exercise.
> 
> The IA had a huge advantage in the face of Smerch. They could hammer PA Armored formation being mobilized to meet the IA Armored thrust without the risk of counter battery. This advantage was eliminated when the A-100's were procured in sizable numbers.
> 
> PA and IA war-planners do expect major artillery and armored duels between both sides. Majority of the casualties suffered by both the Soviets and the Nazis were from artillery fire. I would expect both Pakistan and India, peer level enemies to use artillery to deadly effect to not only support Armored thrusts but also inflict punitive losses on each other.


And with extended range afforded by the new MRLS and the proximity of many FOBs, brigade command, etc. they can actually carry out strikes beyond the battlefield and into the command nodes, logistics and support infrastructure.

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## Irfan Baloch

SQ8 said:


> I really just had thoughts in mind - but, this could be fun if we gave our own spin provided we make it interesting.
> 
> for e.g.
> while we don’t need to do 16 narratives , I recall the flight sim thing I did years before through a friend where we kept changing scenarios to see what would happen with screenshots thrown in.
> 
> After all, if this sim is good enough for BaE and their customers it should be for the discerning tastes of PDF?
> 
> What say ye @JamD @HRK @Dazzler @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Bilal. ? Again, when you have nothing better to do and the other "F-16V are coming" discussions finally get tiresome?
> 
> One can just start off with the next "opening scenario" - whatever you wish to paint it and lets see how it comes out.
> "
> *Mission*
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> *Execution*
> Using aircraft based at PAF Murid, Minhas, and Skardu, neutralize all stated high value targets as well as other threats such as SAMs and Indian CAP aircraft. In addition, a Hatf 7 cruise missile battery is available for use.
> Friendly Forces
> PAF Murid
> 6x Mirage IIIO (F/A)
> 6x F-16CJ+
> 4x Z-10
> 1x Falcon 20 OECM
> PAF Minhas
> 8x JF-17 Blk. 3
> 6x F-16AM
> 1x Saab 2000 AEW&C
> PAF Skardu
> 4x Mirage 5F
> 
> Do the same for enemy forces - where and how many and then let the sims algorithms do the rest.
> 
> I reckon it might be more fun than the usual hyperboles we get??
> 
> For all interested - lets do a cut off time for entries by 11AM PST 5/16 and then Ill enter into the sim to generate the outcome


I am sorry I missed out the cut off date.

*prologue*

India requested American satellite intelligence to counter china

Israeli advisors . task force consisting of special forces and air force pilots is stationed in Srinager to target Pakistani nuclear facilities if given a go ahead by Israeli leadership
India has S400 batteries deployed along the western borders
36 Rafales and American Apache gunships are fully integrated and have been in service for few years.

Indian strike forces consisting of armor and mechanised infantry with support elements have been conducting military exercises along Rajhistan and Punjab with Kasur, Bahawalpur, Sialkot and Lahore as objective.

*PAF operation*

the Pakistani leadership decides that it is one and only chance to strike India now with full force without giving it any chance to respond or retaliate.
the air strikes should be conducted in a way that IAF is degraded up to a point where its will to conduct aggressive operations against Pakistan and support its ground forces is comprehensively broken.
Sri Nagar be Serpent and Pathan Kot be Hydra and Ambala be Harpy.

the primary targets include ground based early warning systems, command centres, SAM sites and air bases.
secondary objectives include ground strikes on Indian battle groups massed along the borders, ammunition and fuel depots. provide CAS and ground strikes in Pakistan army's strike corps push into Jammu and Punjab objectives.
the attacks must start with Hataf7 and Shaheen cruise missiles targeting the Indian SAM and radar sites.

followed immediately by task force of Mirajes launching glibe bombs and cruise missiles while the JF 17s and F16s provide protection and CAP.
F16s and JF17s strike the Indian armor and mechanised infantry and take out Indian gunships on the request of Pakistani strike corps once they cross into Jammu and Indian Punjab.

All available air assets must be utilised in the full initial assault to cause maximum devastation to the Indian air force in a short time so that its leadership is discouraged from continuing with its invasion and the public and political pressure forces it to abandon its war.

*Pakistan army operation*

Pakistan army strike corps will flank the Indian positions and take out Indian artillery and Indian battle group after it gets disrupted by PAF initial attacks,

specialised mountain infantry like NLI and SSG to launch operations in Kashmir disrupting Indian logistics leading to remote areas including Siachin with the help of PAF,

1st corps will cross the LoC and take out Indian command centre in Rajori after flanking the Indian strike force massed near Bhimber in conjunction with PAF strike. 30 Corps will act as reserve and defend Bahawalpur to Lahore.

*Chinese contribution*

Pakistan cyber command with the help of China disrupt indian command and control and communications and degrade the American intelligence which could be used against Pakistan, Chinese and Pakistan cyber attacks are vital in the success of PAF strikes on IAF assets and the FOBs.

*Israeli connection.*

Israel be contacted via US, Canada , UAE and UK embassies warning it in clear terms that any attempt by its airforce or covert ops to take advantage of the war will be responded in kind and its interests will be targeted with full force. any misadventure might compel Pakistan to provide help to countries in Middle east in their fight against Israel. this is potentially a sensitive and weakest part from Pakistan point of view and must be played carefully to prevent America coming in the name of defending Israel and ending up helping India. a back door diplomacy will be a better option with use of UAE and KSA convincing Israel that Pakistani nukes shouldnt be any concern for Israel as long as Pakistan has a stable central government.

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## Blacklight

Irfan Baloch said:


> I am sorry I missed out the cut off date.
> 
> *prologue*
> 
> India requested American satellite intelligence to counter china
> 
> Israeli advisors . task force consisting of special forces and air force pilots is stationed in Srinager to target Pakistani nuclear facilities if given a go ahead by Israeli leadership
> India has S400 batteries deployed along the western borders
> 36 Rafales and American Apache gunships are fully integrated and have been in service for few years.
> 
> Indian strike forces consisting of armor and mechanised infantry with support elements have been conducting military exercises along Rajhistan and Punjab with Kasur, Bahawalpur, Sialkot and Lahore as objective.
> 
> *PAF operation*
> 
> the Pakistani leadership decides that it is one and only chance to strike India now with full force without giving it any chance to respond or retaliate.
> the air strikes should be conducted in a way that IAF is degraded up to a point where its will to conduct aggressive operations against Pakistan and support its ground forces is comprehensively broken.
> Sri Nagar be Serpent and Pathan Kot be Hydra and Ambala be Harpy.
> 
> the primary targets include ground based early warning systems, command centres, SAM sites and air bases.
> secondary objectives include ground strikes on Indian battle groups massed along the borders, ammunition and fuel depots. provide CAS and ground strikes in Pakistan army's strike corps push into Jammu and Punjab objectives.
> the attacks must start with Hataf7 and Shaheen cruise missiles targeting the Indian SAM and radar sites.
> 
> followed immediately by task force of Mirajes launching glibe bombs and cruise missiles while the JF 17s and F16s provide protection and CAP.
> F16s and JF17s strike the Indian armor and mechanised infantry and take out Indian gunships on the request of Pakistani strike corps once they cross into Jammu and Indian Punjab.
> 
> All available air assets must be utilised in the full initial assault to cause maximum devastation to the Indian air force in a short time so that its leadership is discouraged from continuing with its invasion and the public and political pressure forces it to abandon its war.
> 
> *Pakistan army operation*
> 
> Pakistan army strike corps will flank the Indian positions and take out Indian artillery and Indian battle group after it gets disrupted by PAF initial attacks,
> 
> specialised mountain infantry like NLI and SSG to launch operations in Kashmir disrupting Indian logistics leading to remote areas including Siachin with the help of PAF,
> 
> 1st corps will cross the LoC and take out Indian command centre in Rajori after flanking the Indian strike force massed near Bhimber in conjunction with PAF strike. 30 Corps will act as reserve and defend Bahawalpur to Lahore.
> 
> *Chinese contribution*
> 
> Pakistan cyber command with the help of China disrupt indian command and control and communications and degrade the American intelligence which could be used against Pakistan, Chinese and Pakistan cyber attacks are vital in the success of PAF strikes on IAF assets and the FOBs.
> 
> *Israeli connection.*
> 
> Israel be contacted via US, Canada , UAE and UK embassies warning it in clear terms that any attempt by its airforce or covert ops to take advantage of the war will be responded in kind and its interests will be targeted with full force. any misadventure might compel Pakistan to provide help to countries in Middle east in their fight against Israel. this is potentially a sensitive and weakest part from Pakistan point of view and must be played carefully to prevent America coming in the name of defending Israel and ending up helping India. a back door diplomacy will be a better option with use of UAE and KSA convincing Israel that Pakistani nukes shouldnt be any concern for Israel as long as Pakistan has a stable central government.


Pls do add how Pakistan would decimate India's oil rigs in the Arabian Sea + Indian Ocean, as well the Refineries and industrial base especially in Gujarat and Maharashtra. I'm sure Mil Planners would also target oil supply lines / depots as soon as war is declared.

Nonetheless, subs leaving hatches open, Aircraft carriers & destroyers catching fire in port, Mil plans from Delhi arriving via thumb drives, Internal Indian separatist movements going into overdrive, cannot always be blamed on our hisas idarays. Their role is best left to peoples imagination.

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## HRK

@SQ8 .... was holding myself positing about the scenario, as I was not sure it was possible to rum a situation in sim about non-contact warfare in India-Pakistan war like situation.

I mean *IF possible* then plz create a scenario where before the actual initiation of contact war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan launch a non-contact offensive operation against India ideally naturalising or otherwise degrade the Indian Power, Energy, Transport and Communication infrastructures to the maximum both in Civilian and Military sectors.


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## SQ8

HRK said:


> @SQ8 .... was holding myself positing about the scenario, as I was not sure it was possible to rum a situation in sim about non-contact warfare in India-Pakistan war like situation.
> 
> I mean *IF possible* then plz create a scenario where before the actual initiation of contact war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan launch a non-contact offensive operation against India ideally naturalising or otherwise degrade the Indian Power, Energy, Transport and Communication infrastructures to the maximum both in Civilian and Military sectors.


I have a framework in mind - frankly have in-laws over so waiting for the scenario to become more amicable to me having time to spend on the pc

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## El Sidd

I see when they say no one wins a war. It seems winning has more to do with luck than anything else.


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## SQ8

El Sidd said:


> I see when they say no one wins a war. It seems winning has more to do with luck than anything else.


@Irfan Baloch @HRK @JamD and others - why I like this sim:

*Mechanics:*

*Sensors*
Sensors work according to their RL counterparts. Radars are affected by factors such as weather, clutter, jamming (true radar equation, incl. propagation loss), line of sight, horizon (incl. surface effect) and others. Likewise for sonar (passive, active, ping intercept), visual and IR sensors, electronic warfare (ESM/ECM) and so on. Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into account, like frequencies, horizontal and vertical beamwidth, System Noise Level, Processing Gain/Loss, Peak Power, Pulse Width, Blind Time (yes we simulate pulse compression!), PRF, min & max range, min & max altitude, scan interval, range/height/angle resolution, various capabilities such as air/surface/ground/periscope & range/altitude/speed/heading (RASH) info, OTH-B/OTH-SW, pulse-only & early/later doppler with limited/full LDSD, MTI, NCTR, Phased Array continuous target tracking, CW and CWI capability.

*Radar
Sonar
Electronic Warfare
Visual / IR*
Command distinguishes between Detection, Classification, and Identification. Visual detection and classification/identification signatures are based on physical size and various Visual/IR modifiers such as High-Viz, Retro Camo, Low-Viz Camo, etc. However the aircraft’s color only has limited impact on detection range except fluorcent colors. Typical classification ranges for high-viz civilian aircraft is ca 8nm while for low-viz aircraft it is ca 5nm. For visual sensors it is actually the _length_ of the aircraft has the largest impact on detection range. In contrast to earlier games, anti-air missiles and small ASM/AGMs can not be visually classified by type in Command. So there are no more ‘Incoming AIM-9M-5 Mod 4 Build 3 Block A-2/63′ messages. There is much talk about using IRST sensors to counter stealth. But in reality IRST sensors have relatively short range due to the fact that IR radiation is absorbed very quickly by the atmosphere. As such it is a great tool to help improve short/medium-range situational awareness as it has a much wider FOV than the radar, but it certainly isn’t a long-range anti-stealth sensor! This fact is of course also reflected in Command. Command also handles contrails. The effects of these can be demonstrated through the following example: Three A-4M Skyhawks are overflying a ground observer using Mk1 Eyeball as search sensor. One Skyhawk is at 1000ft, one at 25000ft and one at 36000ft.


The lowest is detected at ca 2.1-1.8nm slant range and classified as a A-4 Skyhawk at ca 0.8-1.0nm slant range.
The middle aircraft is not detected as it is too far away / too small.
The highest Skyhawk creates a contrail and is detected at a considerable distance, and thus is the first of the three to be detected. The ground observer can determine the size of the contrail (small/medium/large) but can never see the actual aircraft nor classify it as an A-4 Skyhawk.
TECHNICAL DETAILS: Contrails will only form at altitudes greater than 8000m, and at temperatures below -40 deg C. The simulator has a ‘standard atmosphere’ model that checks if the temperature is lower than 233 deg Kelvin at the aircraft’s current altitude. The simulator uses the aircraft’s ‘Visual Size Class’ to determine the size of the contrail, and thus detection range. The detection range also depends on time-of-day and cloud cover. - Very Large: 50nm - Large: 30nm - Medium: 20nm - Small: 10nm

*Stealth*
Stealth and low-observable aircraft and ships in the database have smaller radar, visual and IR signatures than other units. The simulator uses several different generations of radar stealth and various signature modifiers to produce realistic detection ranges. We also simulate the fact that A to D-band radars are far better at detecting stealth aircraft than E to K-band radars. The AN/FPS-130 is a D-band long-range air search radar which means it is quite effective against stealth aircraft since the wave length is equal to the aircraft or big fuselage components such as wings or tails. This produces resonance effects which give good radar returns. This is not the case for E to K-band radars, and the effect of LO shaping is much, much higher.

*Low Probability of Intercept*
In Command, LPI radars use their real-life power output (0.1W or 1W) and pulse lengths but have much lower System Noise Levels and better Processing Gain/Loss than conventional sets. We do not simulate the ‘ESM-style analysis techniques’ used by these radars in real life, we adjust the processing gain. As such LPI radars work just like any other radar set except they are counter-detected at much shorter ranges. RWRs have much smaller antennas than the LPI radars, and thus the LPI has an advantage as it uses signal analysis methods similar to that of ESM gear. That means modern LPIs are often detecting stuff before being counter-detected, and this is also the case in the simulator. For more advanced RWRs and ESM sets the LPI will be picked up at longer ranges

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## El Sidd

SQ8 said:


> . Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into


 Although there may exist a chance of isolating a simpler model, but would that chance be enough to base a whole scenario upfront?


SQ8 said:


> Contrails


can be overcome


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## paritosh

CrazyZ said:


> Bio weapons....look how vulnerable they are.


We all will be judged for things we said in this life.


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## Arsalan345

CrazyZ said:


> Bio weapons....look how vulnerable they are.


Nope.


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## ebrahym

This is just a really well thought and well written piece of bullshit.


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## Irfan Baloch

@ebrahym
now that you have shared your insightful review 

can you give your own version to the scenario?


in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.

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## Blacklight

SQ8 said:


> @Irfan Baloch @HRK @JamD and others - why I like this sim:
> 
> *Mechanics:*
> 
> *Sensors*
> Sensors work according to their RL counterparts. Radars are affected by factors such as weather, clutter, jamming (true radar equation, incl. propagation loss), line of sight, horizon (incl. surface effect) and others. Likewise for sonar (passive, active, ping intercept), visual and IR sensors, electronic warfare (ESM/ECM) and so on. Some types of sensors like laser designators/rangers and MAD have simpler models. The radar model takes a great number of factors into account, like frequencies, horizontal and vertical beamwidth, System Noise Level, Processing Gain/Loss, Peak Power, Pulse Width, Blind Time (yes we simulate pulse compression!), PRF, min & max range, min & max altitude, scan interval, range/height/angle resolution, various capabilities such as air/surface/ground/periscope & range/altitude/speed/heading (RASH) info, OTH-B/OTH-SW, pulse-only & early/later doppler with limited/full LDSD, MTI, NCTR, Phased Array continuous target tracking, CW and CWI capability.
> 
> *Radar
> Sonar
> Electronic Warfare
> Visual / IR*
> Command distinguishes between Detection, Classification, and Identification. Visual detection and classification/identification signatures are based on physical size and various Visual/IR modifiers such as High-Viz, Retro Camo, Low-Viz Camo, etc. However the aircraft’s color only has limited impact on detection range except fluorcent colors. Typical classification ranges for high-viz civilian aircraft is ca 8nm while for low-viz aircraft it is ca 5nm. For visual sensors it is actually the _length_ of the aircraft has the largest impact on detection range. In contrast to earlier games, anti-air missiles and small ASM/AGMs can not be visually classified by type in Command. So there are no more ‘Incoming AIM-9M-5 Mod 4 Build 3 Block A-2/63′ messages. There is much talk about using IRST sensors to counter stealth. But in reality IRST sensors have relatively short range due to the fact that IR radiation is absorbed very quickly by the atmosphere. As such it is a great tool to help improve short/medium-range situational awareness as it has a much wider FOV than the radar, but it certainly isn’t a long-range anti-stealth sensor! This fact is of course also reflected in Command. Command also handles contrails. The effects of these can be demonstrated through the following example: Three A-4M Skyhawks are overflying a ground observer using Mk1 Eyeball as search sensor. One Skyhawk is at 1000ft, one at 25000ft and one at 36000ft.
> 
> 
> The lowest is detected at ca 2.1-1.8nm slant range and classified as a A-4 Skyhawk at ca 0.8-1.0nm slant range.
> The middle aircraft is not detected as it is too far away / too small.
> The highest Skyhawk creates a contrail and is detected at a considerable distance, and thus is the first of the three to be detected. The ground observer can determine the size of the contrail (small/medium/large) but can never see the actual aircraft nor classify it as an A-4 Skyhawk.
> TECHNICAL DETAILS: Contrails will only form at altitudes greater than 8000m, and at temperatures below -40 deg C. The simulator has a ‘standard atmosphere’ model that checks if the temperature is lower than 233 deg Kelvin at the aircraft’s current altitude. The simulator uses the aircraft’s ‘Visual Size Class’ to determine the size of the contrail, and thus detection range. The detection range also depends on time-of-day and cloud cover. - Very Large: 50nm - Large: 30nm - Medium: 20nm - Small: 10nm
> 
> *Stealth*
> Stealth and low-observable aircraft and ships in the database have smaller radar, visual and IR signatures than other units. The simulator uses several different generations of radar stealth and various signature modifiers to produce realistic detection ranges. We also simulate the fact that A to D-band radars are far better at detecting stealth aircraft than E to K-band radars. The AN/FPS-130 is a D-band long-range air search radar which means it is quite effective against stealth aircraft since the wave length is equal to the aircraft or big fuselage components such as wings or tails. This produces resonance effects which give good radar returns. This is not the case for E to K-band radars, and the effect of LO shaping is much, much higher.
> 
> *Low Probability of Intercept*
> In Command, LPI radars use their real-life power output (0.1W or 1W) and pulse lengths but have much lower System Noise Levels and better Processing Gain/Loss than conventional sets. We do not simulate the ‘ESM-style analysis techniques’ used by these radars in real life, we adjust the processing gain. As such LPI radars work just like any other radar set except they are counter-detected at much shorter ranges. RWRs have much smaller antennas than the LPI radars, and thus the LPI has an advantage as it uses signal analysis methods similar to that of ESM gear. That means modern LPIs are often detecting stuff before being counter-detected, and this is also the case in the simulator. For more advanced RWRs and ESM sets the LPI will be picked up at longer ranges


If sims could decide the outcome of wars, the world would be a very different place.

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## Blacklight

Irfan Baloch said:


> in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.



Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?

Regards

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## ebrahym

Irfan Baloch said:


> @ebrahym
> now that you have shared your insightful review
> 
> can you give your own version to the scenario?
> 
> 
> in case you missed, the OP has clarified that the scenario is the product of a famous think tank from USA. and @SQ8 doesnt endorse the way scenario is played out.


No sir I can not provide a scenario.
Of course that does not exempt criticism of scenario that has been provided.
its like saying I can not be a movie critic because i can not make a movie,
or better yet,
I am ineligible to vote because i can not run the country.

Before 1965, we played all scenarios (With help from American think tanks of course) and concluded we will achieve an absolute victory. also my criticism is not of the author but of the article. and i standby it
It is well written, but bullshit nevertheless.
Scenarios are unpredictable as long as they do not happen.


Blacklight said:


> Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?
> 
> Regards


Apologies to barge in on the conversation,
But the fact is that only Bullshit requires Participation in order to propagate, truth does not.
their simple remedy is to ignore them ..... they are nothing more than opinion pieces. with people who write them having as mush experience and qualification as internet and papers.


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## Blacklight

ebrahym said:


> Apologies to barge in on the conversation,
> But the fact is that only Bullshit requires Participation in order to propagate, truth does not.
> their simple remedy is to ignore them .....



Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise.



ebrahym said:


> they are nothing more than opinion pieces. with people who write them having as mush experience and qualification as internet and papers.



Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed!

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## ebrahym

Blacklight said:


> Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise.
> 
> 
> 
> Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed!


Well Information warfare is a reality that can not be argued against.
so here we are.

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## Irfan Baloch

Blacklight said:


> Sir, As much as I appreciate the effort brother @SQ8 has put in, I always wonder what would be the most effective way to counter these Think Tanks & Lobbyists. Can we explore this, publicly or privately, whatever you may deem more appropriate?
> 
> Regards


take them for what their material is worth. some think tanks drive the policies of the west and they are well versed and impersonal. those kind of think tanks can be emulated and countered though own research groups and think tanks that can help in driving the internal and external policies based on geopolitics.

for anything else, that is a think tank only for name sake just put them in the same category as the rant shows on fox news NDTV etc. they can be either ignored or laughed at or left for our own geniuses like Mubashir Luqman, Zaid Hamid and Amir Liyaqat.

the war of propaganda and narratives can be countered with the same style of narrative and generous amount of rants because logical and intellectual discussion is not applicable.

the technical scenarios are virtual war gaming. just like the military exercises. they are much like a proof of concept or idea demonstrator. they are not viewed as a sure shot win guarantee but a way to identify flaws as well as validate the strategies. 
of course bag and pads practice can never replace the real thing in the ring since the pads and the punch bags don't hit back but they tune in the boxer.

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## SQ8

Blacklight said:


> Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise.
> 
> 
> 
> Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed!


@ebrahym To quote the saying “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy” - all of these scenarios are written by a combination of desk jockeys(military and civilian) who either have limited or no experience of actually being in Pakistan.

Even when they are - they can have a month in and not fully understand dynamics or get very limited exposure.

Finally, keep in mind - our primary enemy is 1.1 billion strong and embedded well into the US state functionaries. So their assessment of Pakistanis are the enemy, Pakistanis are easy to defeat or have massive insurgency all factor into this. The purpose of this thread was to really see their mindset but then come up with an internal PDF wargame to see what the professionals and experts foresee as the outcome.

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## Bilal.

Blacklight said:


> If sims could decide the outcome of wars, the world would be a very different place.


Yes, but it would still be *FAR* more accurate than the pre-concluded scenario put by the “think tank”

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## akramishaqkhan

Yes I can see just these type of "analysis" done (war gaming) by the Americans when they decided to invade Iraq and Afghanistan. Rest is history.

No one knows what will happen in a war. What is not disputable is that Pakistan is a country of 225Million, that land mass of the entire Eastern Seaboard. The notion that Indian Army will run the gauntlet like some Rommel armor through the planes of Punjab or Deserts of Rajasthan is nutty.

Indian Armor as with Pakistani Armor is likely to only punch a few holes perhaps going in 30-50KM so as to not stretch logistics lines and manage against counter attacks (along with susceptibility to effective counter armor strategies via ATGMs) . Any other proposition (faster and deeper ingress) is likely to see Armor degrade over time. Most forward air-bases will take the brunt of cruise and other types of missiles. This will erode their efficacy over the course of a war. Here Pakistan will fare worse but nothing that will completely knock PAF out (as paf transitions into other infrastructure like highways and a larger 2-tier basing approach). IAF will continue to operate as well and will in similar fashion see her forward bases erode. Air war will likely grind to a stalemate with ground to air defences taking a more prominent role over time. Whichever side manages to continue to operate a strong detection and ground reaction will fare better over time. Also combined arms tactics will also be critical in yielding better on the ground results. 

The notion that IN will sink the entirety of PN is fanciful. This paper fails to take into account Orbat and application of war fighting means around an optimum approach. If you put PN and IN in open sea face to face. Sure, PN would not fare well. But that is not how wars are fought. PN will apply its assets in a manner that will give them the greatest likelihood of success (closer to coastal waters, with AShM and Air cover protection). So here too though IN will not be able to either sink PN nor blockade PK ports and coasts. Infact there is a stronger chance that gulf exports to IN will be severely hampered, as it will be within PN capabilities to monitor and interdict shipping from the Gulf. Any ship unable to verify or confirmed to have its destination to India, will be in danger of coastal batteries. 

Pakistan has a big reserve force. Combine that with local forces like FC and other units and you'll have easily the ability to tamp down any internal challenges. SOPs for engagement will loosen and from TTP to BLA, any group that attempts to create trouble at scale will be ground down very quickly. Same goes for India, however I think if China plays its part things could get tough for India with her insurgencies especially those in the North East.

So net net, it will be a defacto draw yet again.

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## ebrahym

SQ8 said:


> @ebrahym To quote the saying “No plan ever survives contact with the enemy” - all of these scenarios are written by a combination of desk jockeys(military and civilian) who either have limited or no experience of actually being in Pakistan.
> 
> Even when they are - they can have a month in and not fully understand dynamics or get very limited exposure.
> 
> Finally, keep in mind - our primary enemy is 1.1 billion strong and embedded well into the US state functionaries. So their assessment of Pakistanis are the enemy, Pakistanis are easy to defeat or have massive insurgency all factor into this. The purpose of this thread was to really see their mindset but then come up with an internal PDF wargame to see what the professionals and experts foresee as the outcome.


blimey!!!!


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## SQ8

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) and others 

I am going to start off the PDF scenario from the event we are most familiar with - it is 26th February 2019 -
I think it is a good starting scenario since we know about the events and also makes for a good plausible start of what if. It also gives me the follow up of 27th Feb to replicate but with the twist as I will outline below.

All I have done is set up the simulation based on the accounts from Acdre Tufail, members here and even the Indian accounts of how they set up their refueling and strike route - the accuracy of which is really dependent upon these folks.

Additionally, by setting up flight paths for the main strike force, diversion - I set their RoEs(_restrictive for PAF and IAF is fire at PAF only in defense_) , whether to pursue across the border or not(although they do get naughty at times) and the mission profiles. 

Finally - once I hit "Play" I do NOT control the variables or any of the units in there - the algorithms assume the virtual pilots are equally proficient(same OODA loop of 15 second detection and 20 seconds to engage) and there were no errors in loading Spice 2000 coordinates. In summary, if the IAF did everything by the book and the PAF did everything by the book.

For the 26th I am using images but looking to switch to video for the 27th if the editing comes out OK.

SO:

_Narendra Modi has just authorized a strike on a seminary with in Balakot as retribution for Pulwama. We dont know what the kids are being taught or whether it is a training camp as they claim or not. But there are young children in there._

Per Acdre Tufails account - the Indian Strike aircraft took off at 1:30 am with 16 M2000s - Indian sources also cite Su-30s in the air acting as escorts and diversionary flights. 
*The picture when seen from the Pakistani side at 1:30am (solid white line - yellow lines represent engagement of ADGE systems known employed) shows the usual civilian traffic as well along with Pakistani ELINT picking up Indian Radar coverage. *







*On the Indian side we have the A-50 airborne providing AEW support (some sources cite the Netra 145) and a IL-78(soon to be followed by another) for refueling support.*





*
At 1:31 the Mirages start rolling from Gwalior - Su-30s from Jodhpur have not yet taken off.*





*Around 1:45-2am the package of 16 mirages starts forming up - some tasked to split off and head towards diversionary targets. The A-50 is now at altitude and providing good coverage of most of northern Pakistani airspace.*







*While technically Pakistani radar coverage from its TPS series extends into India, there is no trace of what is happening on that side other than what is perceived to be a lone flight which could be a CAP(although I am sure in PAF AHQ some eyes were up based upon Intel). The last CAP had landed a while ago and its replacement was now being prepped for take off.*






*
However, by 2:15 things start showing up - the CAP is taxying to the runway 2x JF-17 Block-2s from Kamra armed with SD-10s. This CAP was set to trigger automatically by the computer if it detected more than 2xflights and perceived the flight path of those unknows to be crossing into a pre-defined area. Interestingly, during Mujahideen e Aflak it was claimed that the radar only saw the IAF flight around 3am? Was this referral to the Balakot strike and not the other violations at Fazalika sector and others?*






*As the first diversionary flights starts heading through - the computer decides it may want to scramble another pair - F-16s out of Mushaf, they are airborne around 2:45 ( interestingly , Pakistani accounts state they did not get airborne until they detected the Indian flight - but the computer did not hesitate to respond)*






*After realizing that the diversions were not a threat - the computer focuses the JF-17 and F-16 towards the Indian Mirages heading for Balakot who are now at 2:55 about to cross the border- The cloud cover keeps the crystal maze(AGM-142 derivative) from being deployed and that flight will soon turn back.
The Pakistani interceptors go into burner after chasing the false leads and will inadvertently do some border violations too trying to get to the Indian aircraft. *







*That may not be enough - as the M2Ks are in range for the SPICE-2000 ( the computer elects to drop a little closer than its max range of 30nm to around 22nm , trying to guarantee energy and probability of hit)*







*The bombs make their mark - the seminary is blow to smithereens along with any occupants - The PAF fighters might see the flames but in general the time of night wont make any difference, The Indian flight turns back with the PAF hot on their tails, but with the RoE's in place the computer has no reason for weapons release and the IAF aircraft head back after their deed is done.





The PAF doesn't pursue them across the border - the damage will be known soon enough. There was no nervous Indian pilot or mistake in loading gps elevation data for the Spice system. 200+ Pakistanis were killed with the majority of them children - that national message would echo the APS massacre in many ways. By early morning the cameras will arrive and a raging nation will weigh its response. 



Thoughts; *
1. Without the human element (other than deciding OODA loops) the Pakistani ADGE was aware of something amiss but was distracted by the diversions. 

2. The Balakot package had to refuel twice from Gwalior on both legs of the journey on what was a 3hour mission in essence back and forth. 

3. Based on radar detection and if they had prior knowledge of intent, the PAF could have engaged the IAF Strike package at BVR over Indian air space and right after they crossed the border for 10-15km before releasing SPICE 2000. However, there was a group of M2ks with MICAs and a Su-30 Pair around that could respond as well. It would have spared Pakistani lives but within the RoEs this was all moot.

Given the human factor is taken out and simple rule based and probability gaming - nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.

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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

SQ8 said:


> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) and others
> 
> I am going to start off the PDF scenario from the event we are most familiar with - it is 26th February 2019 -
> I think it is a good starting scenario since we know about the events and also makes for a good plausible start of what if. It also gives me the follow up of 27th Feb to replicate but with the twist as I will outline below.
> 
> All I have done is set up the simulation based on the accounts from Acdre Tufail, members here and even the Indian accounts of how they set up their refueling and strike route - the accuracy of which is really dependent upon these folks.
> 
> Additionally, by setting up flight paths for the main strike force, diversion - I set their RoEs(_restrictive for PAF and IAF is fire at PAF only in defense_) , whether to pursue across the border or not(although they do get naughty at times) and the mission profiles.
> 
> Finally - once I hit "Play" I do NOT control the variables or any of the units in there - the algorithms assume the virtual pilots are equally proficient(same OODA loop of 15 second detection and 20 seconds to engage) and there were no errors in loading Spice 2000 coordinates. In summary, if the IAF did everything by the book and the PAF did everything by the book.
> 
> For the 26th I am using images but looking to switch to video for the 27th if the editing comes out OK.
> 
> SO:
> 
> _Narendra Modi has just authorized a strike on a seminary with in Balakot as retribution for Pulwama. We dont know what the kids are being taught or whether it is a training camp as they claim or not. But there are young children in there._
> 
> Per Acdre Tufails account - the Indian Strike aircraft took off at 1:30 am with 16 M2000s - Indian sources also cite Su-30s in the air acting as escorts and diversionary flights.
> *The picture when seen from the Pakistani side at 1:30am (solid white line - yellow lines represent engagement of ADGE systems known employed) shows the usual civilian traffic as well along with Pakistani ELINT picking up Indian Radar coverage. *
> 
> View attachment 746064
> 
> 
> *On the Indian side we have the A-50 airborne providing AEW support (some sources cite the Netra 145) and a IL-78(soon to be followed by another) for refueling support.*
> 
> View attachment 746065
> 
> 
> *At 1:31 the Mirages start rolling from Gwalior - Su-30s from Jodhpur have not yet taken off.*
> View attachment 746066
> 
> 
> *Around 1:45-2am the package of 16 mirages starts forming up - some tasked to split off and head towards diversionary targets. The A-50 is now at altitude and providing good coverage of most of northern Pakistani airspace.*
> 
> View attachment 746067
> 
> 
> 
> *While technically Pakistani radar coverage from its TPS series extends into India, there is no trace of what is happening on that side other than what is perceived to be a lone flight which could be a CAP(although I am sure in PAF AHQ some eyes were up based upon Intel). The last CAP had landed a while ago and its replacement was now being prepped for take off.*
> 
> 
> View attachment 746069
> 
> 
> *However, by 2:15 things start showing up - the CAP is taxying to the runway 2x JF-17 Block-2s from Kamra armed with SD-10s. This CAP was set to trigger automatically by the computer if it detected more than 2xflights and perceived the flight path of those unknows to be crossing into a pre-defined area. Interestingly, during Mujahideen e Aflak it was claimed that the radar only saw the IAF flight around 3am? Was this referral to the Balakot strike and not the other violations at Fazalika sector and others?*
> 
> View attachment 746070
> 
> 
> *As the first diversionary flights starts heading through - the computer decides it may want to scramble another pair - F-16s out of Mushaf, they are airborne around 2:45 ( interestingly , Pakistani accounts state they did not get airborne until they detected the Indian flight - but the computer did not hesitate to respond)*
> 
> View attachment 746071
> 
> 
> *After realizing that the diversions were not a threat - the computer focuses the JF-17 and F-16 towards the Indian Mirages heading for Balakot who are now at 2:55 about to cross the border- The cloud cover keeps the crystal maze(AGM-142 derivative) from being deployed and that flight will soon turn back.
> The Pakistani interceptors go into burner after chasing the false leads and will inadvertently do some border violations too trying to get to the Indian aircraft. *
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 746074
> 
> *That may not be enough - as the M2Ks are in range for the SPICE-2000 ( the computer elects to drop a little closer than its max range of 30nm to around 22nm , trying to guarantee energy and probability of hit)*
> 
> 
> View attachment 746100
> 
> 
> *The bombs make their mark - the seminary is blow to smithereens along with any occupants - The PAF fighters might see the flames but in general the time of night wont make any difference, The Indian flight turns back with the PAF hot on their tails, but with the RoE's in place the computer has no reason for weapons release and the IAF aircraft head back after their deed is done.
> View attachment 746118
> 
> 
> The PAF doesn't pursue them across the border - the damage will be known soon enough. There was no nervous Indian pilot or mistake in loading gps elevation data for the Spice system. 200+ Pakistanis were killed with the majority of them children - that national message would echo the APS massacre in many ways. By early morning the cameras will arrive and a raging nation will weigh its response.
> 
> 
> 
> Thoughts; *
> 1. Without the human element (other than deciding OODA loops) the Pakistani ADGE was aware of something amiss but was distracted by the diversions.
> 
> 2. The Balakot package had to refuel twice from Gwalior on both legs of the journey on what was a 3hour mission in essence back and forth.
> 
> 3. Based on radar detection and if they had prior knowledge of intent, the PAF could have engaged the IAF Strike package at BVR over Indian air space and right after they crossed the border for 10-15km before releasing SPICE 2000. However, there was a group of M2ks with MICAs and a Su-30 Pair around that could respond as well. It would have spared Pakistani lives but within the RoEs this was all moot.
> 
> Given the human factor is taken out and simple rule based and probability gaming - nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.


In this scenario, is the PAF left with 2 options?

1. Either try downing the incoming Indian birds, but at the risk of breaking RoEs and giving India a legal justification to escalate. However, the risk of following current RoEs is that they kill 200 of our kids. So, it's a lose-lose scenario, unless...

2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?

However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, *unless *the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China? 

What do we do to get to that scenario? Do we line up international lawyers ahead of time to argue the validity of our military attack? Do we buy off Western policy officials to trumpet our moral case? Do we capture an area we think India's hiding their skeletons (figuratively and maybe literally) and show it off to Al Jazeera, TRT World, etc? 

Finally, does the equation change if (by some chance) Kashmir enters a mass popular uprising phase (ala Syria or Libya)? In that scenario, if India is evidently struggling with containing the uprising, do we change our RoEs and actually down their birds over IHK on the assumption that those birds are after targets within Pakistan?

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## Great Janjua

It will be a stalemate like always


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## SQ8

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> In this scenario, is the PAF left with 2 options?
> 
> 1. Either try downing the incoming Indian birds, but at the risk of breaking RoEs and giving India a legal justification to escalate. However, the risk of following current RoEs is that they kill 200 of our kids. So, it's a lose-lose scenario, unless...
> 
> 2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?
> 
> However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, *unless *the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China?
> 
> What do we do to get to that scenario? Do we line up international lawyers ahead of time to argue the validity of our military attack? Do we buy off Western policy officials to trumpet our moral case? Do we capture an area we think India's hiding their skeletons (figuratively and maybe literally) and show it off to Al Jazeera, TRT World, etc?
> 
> Finally, does the equation change if (by some chance) Kashmir enters a mass popular uprising phase (ala Syria or Libya)? In that scenario, if India is evidently struggling with containing the uprising, do we change our RoEs and actually down their birds over IHK on the assumption that those birds are after targets within Pakistan?


Well.. the next scenario to build is the 27th February but with gloves off - what does that look like?
Does it become a full fledged incursion or an airstrike at FoBs or even a major Indian AB.

I can get to build a close replica of 27th feb but would that even be the response?

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## JamD

SQ8 said:


> Well.. the next scenario to build is the 27th February but with gloves off - what does that look like?
> Does it become a full fledged incursion or an airstrike at FoBs or even a major Indian AB.
> 
> I can get to build a close replica of 27th feb but would that even be the response?


First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.

Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.

I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.
2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.

Hard to say what would happen next.

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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

JamD said:


> First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.
> 
> Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.
> 
> I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
> *1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.*
> 2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
> 3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
> 4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.
> 
> Hard to say what would happen next.


Not to give "5G warfare" people credit, but that first response is contingent on:

*Getting the likes of AJE, TRT, etc to cover our side of the story.*

God knows BBC and CNN ain't doing anything for us. So the question is, what do we do to get AJE and TRT (and others) onboard? Well, AJE = concessions to Qatar, and TRT = concessions to Turkey. Note: I am not saying good ties, but *concessions.* We'll have to gift something on a silver platter to these countries well ahead of any fights with India. E.g., Turkey's been asking for partners for the TFX, and Qatar's got aspirations. 

*Getting key Western politicians to crap on India's actions.*

Who needs campaign funding? Any towns and cities looking for more investment (perhaps we send our students to those local schools, for a start?).

This requires a budget. I'd say at least $1B a year depending on what we're giving to these stakeholders.

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> First of all I would not like to be the one deciding how to respond to hundreds of dead Pakistani children. No right answers.
> 
> Also, this really shows (and something that we've known) that it was incompetency that prevented whatever we are and about to discuss. Really scary that South Asia was saved merely by Indian incompetence.
> 
> I would speculate on how Pakistan would respond:
> 1. Do not respond immediately but use the time to create a media spectacle to try to win international favour. This is kind of what we saw on 27th February: a delayed response.
> 2. Strike military targets: all the targets that were locked on 27th would be actually hit, including the high command.
> 3. Strike at many many more targets than 27th February, essentially throwing the IAF in disarray. We would also loose aircraft in this expanded scenario of course.
> 4. India, will no undoubtedly respond in kind.
> 
> Hard to say what would happen next.


Ok - lets do options 2 since it seems that was still a measured response. knowing that most of IAF strike assets are out of reach I don’t think the PAF would try hitting an airbase.

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## Goritoes

SQ8 said:


> I have a framework in mind - frankly have *in-laws* over so waiting for the scenario to become more amicable to me having time to spend on the pc



you my friend are already in a state of WAR 
Our @SQ8 bhai after the Trip from Sasural 




bhai gussa na hona just a light joke

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## PDF

SQ8 said:


> nothing prevents the IAF from executing a successful strike on Balakot.


what stops India from optimally utilizing their current assets? Even removing Rafales from the next scenario, we are still at a disadvantageous position if they manage to effectively utilize their fighter aircrafts and tactics. And I am sure after the Feb 27th event, PAF will probably be in for a rude awakening in the next conflict.

The only advantage PAF has is superior tactics and strategy. But it is a function based on humans which are prone to make mistakes. I am just trying to remind everyone that the same Indian vulnerabilities that help us can be present at our end in the future too.

We can not afford to dismiss or remain oblivious to our limitations.

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## Jungibaaz

It’s as we all expected that nothing ought to have caused a botched raid on the 26th, apart from human error and glitches in planning. And as expected our RoEs on day one would have always severely restricted the effectiveness of our interception of the strike package.

I agree with the members above, going forward, had the seminary have been hit successfully, we might have waited a little while longer to capitalise on the media angle of displaying an Indian war crime and gross display of barbarism. But when we do eventually strike back, at a minimum we’d have intended to inflict large numbers of casualties, strike a larger number of targets than we did on the 27th. And PAF would go in expecting the IAF to intercept aggressively with much relaxed RoEs. We have to factor in that in this scenario the IAF would be fully expecting a big response and would perhaps be better prepared than they were.

This whole scenario is way more dangerous than the actual one turned out. Neither side would be able to back down as easily as they did, even if escalation was somehow pre-emoted by international pressure and panic, the political situation in both countries would be conducive to another clash as soon as feasible.

The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood. 


PDF said:


> what stops India from optimally utilizing their current assets? Even removing Rafales from the next scenario, we are still at a disadvantageous position if they manage to effectively utilize their fighter aircrafts and tactics. And I am sure after the Feb 27th event, PAF will probably be in for a rude awakening in the next conflict.
> 
> The only advantage PAF has is superior tactics and strategy. But it is a function based on humans which are prone to make mistakes. I am just trying to remind everyone that the same Indian vulnerabilities that help us can be present at our end in the future too.
> 
> We can not afford to dismiss or remain oblivious to our limitations.



Rafales are very capable, and nothing even stopped the IAF from pulling a swift retort on us on the 26th. I think both sides proved that whoever is attacking, tends to do so in a way that maximises their own chances of success and plans to thwart any interception.

As long as we have the capacity to respond in turn, we can expect the Indians to perhaps proceed with caution. They should realise that limited strikes with no Pakistani response are not possible based on their size alone. They lack the substantial tech asymmetry required.

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## PanzerKiel

Jungibaaz said:


> It’s as we all expected that nothing ought to have caused a botched raid on the 26th, apart from human error and glitches in planning. And as expected our RoEs on day one would have always severely restricted the effectiveness of our interception of the strike package.
> 
> I agree with the members above, going forward, had the seminary have been hit successfully, we might have waited a little while longer to capitalise on the media angle of displaying an Indian war crime and gross display of barbarism. But when we do eventually strike back, at a minimum we’d have intended to inflict large numbers of casualties, strike a larger number of targets than we did on the 27th. And PAF would go in expecting the IAF to intercept aggressively with much relaxed RoEs. We have to factor in that in this scenario the IAF would be fully expecting a big response and would perhaps be better prepared than they were.
> 
> This whole scenario is way more dangerous than the actual one turned out. Neither side would be able to back down as easily as they did, even if escalation was somehow pre-emoted by international pressure and panic, the political situation in both countries would be conducive to another clash as soon as feasible.
> 
> The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood.
> 
> 
> Rafales are very capable, and nothing even stopped the IAF from pulling a swift retort on us on the 26th. I think both sides proved that whoever is attacking, tends to do so in a way that maximises their own chances of success and plans to thwart any interception.
> 
> As long as we have the capacity to respond in turn, we can expect the Indians to perhaps proceed with caution. They should realise that limited strikes with no Pakistani response are not possible based on their size alone. They lack the substantial tech asymmetry required.


.... Which means thar IAF as an organisation is unable to bring its quantitative superiority on the battlefield once it is needed....

By repeatedly quoting this big fact that PAF was able to muster so many aircraft against IAF in a selected geographical area {as though PAF has been unfair} , Indians are unknowingly accepting defeat and highlighting serious loopholes in their own
C4I systems
air defence
air intelligence
airfield locations and structuring
ADA strategies
all aspects of DCAOs
Lack of planning or unwillingness to mount a SAR operation in enemy territory to recover own downed pilot
unwillingness of their top leadership to retaliate to regain their lost pride being humbled by a much smaller PAF....

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## Blacklight

Goritoes said:


> you my friend are already in a state of WAR
> Our @SQ8 bhai after the Trip from Sasural
> View attachment 746217
> 
> bhai gussa na hona just a light joke


Haslo beta haslo, will wait for you to get married

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## Mumm-Ra

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> 2. We use the seminary attack as legal justification to attack a major military site close to the LoC, perhaps try a Kargil 2.0, but without the silo-ed planning. We maintain a single-focus goal of capturing a 1-2 areas with immediate effect via a composite of a PAF strike package, sweeper unit, SSW (for CSAR), and Army units?
> 
> However, Option 2 then exposes us to a perpetual conflict as India will try reclaiming those sectors, unless they give up (unlikely) or the US intervenes. The latter scenario will likely see us surrender those locations, *unless *the US decides Kashmir isn't worth India's time and energy. In that respect, the US could tell India to back off and focus on China?


I think it’s unlikely that India will not try to get any captured territory. Our planners have made the same assumptions only to be proven wrong in all conflicts. In case we make any progress in Kashmir, they’ll open up fronts in Punjab and Sind and we would immediately switch to a defensive mode. We’ll stall any progress in Kashmir and then focus on defending in Punjab and Sind. The whole thing will end in another stalemate and possibly both countries will return to their old borders.

Or if we really want to stick it to them, instead of going for any area in the valley, why not go after Siachen? We should have more than adequate experience in all aspects of high altitude warfare by now. So do to Indians at Siachen what they did to us in Kargil. Use airpower to dislodge them from that place at the same time keeping their airforce at bay. Construct Swift retort as an operation Focus on the IAF's western air command. It need not be right after the Indian attack. Take appropriate time planning a coordinated adventure, build up the required logistics and supply and just don't send a handful of souls to die while the fat cat, drunk on his supposed genius, write a firey book. I have no doubt tat a combined PA and PAF operation can dislodge IA from Siachen. While at the same time, you have enough strength elsewhere to check any Indian reply on LOC or even across LOC.


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## arjunk

Mumm-Ra said:


> I think it’s unlikely that India will not try to get any captured territory. Our planners have made the same assumptions only to be proven wrong in all conflicts. In case we make any progress in Kashmir, they’ll open up fronts in Punjab and Sind and we would immediately switch to a defensive mode. We’ll stall any progress in Kashmir and then focus on defending in Punjab and Sind. The whole thing will end in another stalemate and possibly both countries will return to their old borders.



We should go on the offensive in Punjab and Rajasthan. It is easy to go defensive in Kashmir and let separatists attack the Indians for us. We can mobilise far faster than Indians in the Indus Plain area and can easily punch 5-10km into India if we take them by surprise.

Another thing: The borders with Iran and Afghanistan should be completely sealed with shoot on sight orders issued to border security forces.

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## Mumm-Ra

Jungibaaz said:


> The real question for us is. What would swift retort have looked like had the Indians actually murdered a seminary full of kids. The gloves would be off for sure. APS like national outrage, we’d all be baying for blood


My guess is we won’t be just aiming for their headquarters then. Their border positions, the Srinagar airfield and other assets may have been targeted. And engaging all aircrafts regardless of which side of the border they are found. One wonders how we would have climbed down from this though?


arjunk said:


> We should go on the offensive in Punjab and Rajasthan. It is easy to go defensive in Kashmir and let separatists attack the Indians for us. We can mobilise far faster than Indians in the Indus Plain area and can easily punch 5-10km into India if we take them by surprise.
> 
> Another thing: The borders with Iran and Afghanistan should be completely sealed with shoot on sight orders issued to border security forces.


Firstly, what are our goals in both Punjab and Rajasthan? Advance up till 30-40 Kms and hold or can we go for the kill and actually cause some bigger problems like getting a city. Imagine capturing Jammu city instead of getting 40 kms of worthless sand in the desert.
Secondly, people in Kashmir will not rise up for us. We tried that before in 65. It did not work.
And lastly, why create any problems with Afghanistan and Iran?

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## SQ8

Goritoes said:


> you my friend are already in a state of WAR
> Our @SQ8 bhai after the Trip from Sasural
> View attachment 746217
> 
> bhai gussa na hona just a light joke


No trip to in laws, they were here.

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## Goritoes

Blacklight said:


> Haslo beta haslo, will wait for you to get married



Already married for almost 4 years now 

By the way Game is this one @SQ8, does it require a heavy gaming machine to run?

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## SQ8

*FLOW COLD , FLOW COLD*
27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates

The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.

The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.

The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.

Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.

The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
1. All pilots are equally competent
2. All forces respond as per training
3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them

The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..

Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.

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## khanmubashir

Indos said:


> I doubt any possible war happen during 2020-2035 period since both countries will focus on developing the economy and avoid any war.
> 
> I dont like the war between Pakistan and India and the help from Muslim nations I believe will only happen if Pakistan is in defensive position since if Pakistan in the offensive it means sending military help will only escalate and prolong the war.
> 
> *Beyond 2035 scenario*
> 
> The first help I believe will be sending MALE UCAV and its operator to Pakistan, and in order to do so need strong enough navy armada to bring them to Pakistan.
> 
> View attachment 743790
> 
> 
> And Indonesian PT PAL is designing unmanned submarine where I think in 2035 above we will have many of them inshaAllah. The unmanned submarine will be the next to be send if India doesnt stop its offensive.
> 
> If India is lead by crazy and India offensive never stop, Indonesia will likely send KF 21/IFX and their UCAV STEALTH wingman drone (InshaAllah we will develop them).
> 
> View attachment 743794
> 
> 
> 
> And Pakistan needs to sell at least 20 nuclear head to Indonesia that can be integrated into submarine missiles, this will also give financial help to Pakistan and in the other hand give assurance that there will be nuclear war if India nuke Indonesia.
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> All of this will only happen under Indonesia being lead by Nationalist Religius-Islamist coalition, this coalition has ruled democratic Indonesia in several period (1998-1999-Habibie), (1999-2002 Abdurrahman Wahid), (2004-2014 Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono)
> 
> Other condition that should happen :
> 
> 1. Indonesia stay with KF 21 program and the program is successful
> 2. Indonesia MALE UCAV/wingman STEALTH UCAV/unmanned submarine program are completed and successful
> 3. Indonesia economy keep growing at 5.5-6.5 percent growth until 2045 that could possibly make the country become more capable to solve world problem beyond its own border, starting at 2035


More of Indians mind farts
The only border areas suitable for heavy thrust into Pakistan are desert sparsely populated zones along Sindh desert and Rahim yar Khan even Lahore site with military in placed and heavy population making any rapid advance of enemy unlikely 
Remember in 2002 Iraq war with desert terrain of Iraq perfect for tank movement and having complete air superiority Americans tool weeks to occupy small Iraqi town's
And Indians don't have anything remotely as favourable to indo Pak scenario 
Even usa would sweat at Idea of invading and occupying a country as big as Pakistan 
Then there's nuclear issue 

If war happens it would be limited to border regions the ground attacks 
In case of air battles if we are able to neutralise Indian airpower on northern sector destroy it's based with jets I think thats what our air force primary strategy is 

kind of Israel did in 1967 Arab war the Indian southern air force assets would be of limited use in indo Pak war 
But in end Indians going to war over killing of few Indian soldiers by Kashmiri fighter is just supa pawa Vs fed to dumb sanghis. If it was that easy Soviets and USA would have declared all out war long time ago 
Indians stand to loose alot not I'd it goes side ways like it did on 27 Feb 19
From jets to supa pawa image


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## Vapnope

Suppose everything remains the same i.e. PAF launches symbolic strikes on 6 military installations however IAF manages to shoot down 2 PAF planes while intercepting, what would PAF would have done?

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## truthfollower

PanzerKiel said:


> why india doesn't wage a month long war today to destroy the economic and military potential of Pakistan?


arent we already engaged in some kind of conflict? I dont know whats the term, i think low intensity it is called.


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## Mumm-Ra

SQ8 said:


> *FLOW COLD , FLOW COLD*
> 27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates
> 
> The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.
> 
> The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.
> 
> The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.
> 
> Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.
> 
> The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
> 1. All pilots are equally competent
> 2. All forces respond as per training
> 3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out
> 
> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them
> 
> The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..
> 
> Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.


So with the gloves off, PAF was able to inflict pretty serious damage. Interestingly, the F-16s were able to dodge R-77s while at the same time downing their SUs.

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## truthfollower

SQ8 said:


> *FLOW COLD , FLOW COLD*
> 27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates
> 
> The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.
> 
> The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.
> 
> The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.
> 
> Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.
> 
> The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
> 1. All pilots are equally competent
> 2. All forces respond as per training
> 3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out
> 
> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them
> 
> The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..
> 
> Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.


OMG 😻 you have finally created a YouTube channel. But Please 🤗please 🤗please 🤗add your commentary too


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## SQ8

Mumm-Ra said:


> So with the gloves off, PAF was able to inflict pretty serious damage. Interestingly, the F-16s were able to dodge R-77s while at the same time downing their SUs.


The IAF was outnumbered - so maybe their retreat on the 27th wasn’t so misplaced or rather an intelligent move on the pilots behalf of living to fight another day.
@Trailer23 need some help with videos if you are able - I really struggle with this stuff. Tried snapshot but just adding text is a hassle.


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## KaiserX

Pakistans action plan as soon as India starts to mobilize troops towards the IB/LOC would be the following:

Phase 1- Pre-emptive missile and airstrikes on all strategic indian forward operating bases and airfields. Saturating Indian airbases/army HQs with ghauris, nasirs, baburs, and other various missiles. This was attempted in 1965 but at that time we did not have even 1% of the capabilities we have today.

Phase 2- Start Integrated battle group A offences along the IB in the norther punjab (sialkot/lahore) sector. In concurrence Integrated battle groups B supported by attack helis/drones/ fighter jets would push in from the thar desert sector in sindh. Integrated battle group A in the north would attempt multiple pincer movements along amristar. Another pincer blitzkreig strike along the northern side to cut off kargil/kashmir from all transportation links from mainland India.

Integrated battle group B in the souther sector would be tasked with created a large bridghhead in the thar desert to capture as much land as possible. So that before Indians could attempt their thrust into the desert Pakistanis forces would already be on their territory.

Phase 3- Total war. Mobilize all army reserve, all paramilitaries (rangers/frontier corp/etc..), mobilize all militant groups, and mobilize anyone of fighting age. Most pakistani households have atleast 2-3 grown men with guns ready to fight with their own weapons and vehicles. Put them throught rapid training or on the job training for some action. Its needs to be a total peoples war similar to how Chinese/Israelis/ Americans fight.

Phase 3- Assymetric and missile strikes throughout India on critical infrastructure. This would include oil processing refineries in Gujrat which could be targetted by PN subs. Indian naval base in mumbai, Dams, electric grids, internet connection tower, cell towers, water plants, etc... would all be targeted by missile or airstrikes to demoralize the indian populace significantly.

ISI agents within india would be activated to forment division and conduct assymetric military operations. Pakistani defences forces should confuse the enemy as much as possible.

Phase 4- Further escalation. We have seen time and time again in the world that the crazy madman always wins and gets the best terms of surrender. Example being Nazi germany pre-1942, US nuclear bombing of japan, Bushs invasion of afghanistan/iraq. Having a no mercy mentality on our enemy should be policy. Even if Pakistani forces attain complete battlefield supremacy in the northern/southern sectors, we should conduct 8-12 tactical nuclear sub-kiloton strikes on key indian military targets. Targets should be of minimum civilian casualties but maximum military casualties. We want to get the best terms of surrender from them.

This would show a defeated enemy that we will destroy their nations unless Pakistan has full dominance of whatever would remain of a confederate states of india afterwards and thus attain complete strategic hegemony of the whole subcontinent. Such terms could be laid out in the conditions of surrender but would look something like this:

- Pakistan gains all of Kashmir, all of Punjab, and all of the thar desert within Rajasthan (as a natural buffer). Indian occupied kashmir and punjab would become new provinces within pakistan

- What remains of India would be liable to pay Pakistan/kashmir $500 bn USD upfront for the cost of damages over the last 70 years. This would be followed by a yearly payment of $40 bn over the next 100 years to Pakistans national treasury.

- Indian military would constitutionally not be allowed to become an offensive force. Numbers and budgets would be constitutionally limited similar to Japan after ww2.

- Pakistan would have full rights/access to any Indian military base including army/airforce/navy.

- All Indian foreign policy would have to be approved by Pakistan

Only once such terms of surrender have been achieved can there be peace in the subcontinent and the world.

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## Zapper

KaiserX said:


> Pakistans action plan as soon as India starts to mobilize troops towards the IB/LOC would be the following:
> 
> Phase 1- Pre-emptive missile and airstrikes on all strategic indian forward operating bases and airfields. Saturating Indian airbases/army HQs with ghauris, nasirs, baburs, and other various missiles. This was attempted in 1965 but at that time we did not have even 1% of the capabilities we have today.
> 
> Phase 2- Start Integrated battle group A offences along the IB in the norther punjab (sialkot/lahore) sector. In concurrence Integrated battle groups B supported by attack helis/drones/ fighter jets would push in from the thar desert sector in sindh. Integrated battle group A in the north would attempt multiple pincer movements along amristar. Another pincer blitzkreig strike along the northern side to cut off kargil/kashmir from all transportation links from mainland India.
> 
> Integrated battle group B in the souther sector would be tasked with created a large bridghhead in the thar desert to capture as much land as possible. So that before Indians could attempt their thrust into the desert Pakistanis forces would already be on their territory.
> 
> Phase 3- Total war. Mobilize all army reserve, all paramilitaries (rangers/frontier corp/etc..), mobilize all militant groups, and mobilize anyone of fighting age. Most pakistani households have atleast 2-3 grown men with guns ready to fight with their own weapons and vehicles. Put them throught rapid training or on the job training for some action. Its needs to be a total peoples war similar to how Chinese/Israelis/ Americans fight.
> 
> Phase 3- Assymetric and missile strikes throughout India on critical infrastructure. This would include oil processing refineries in Gujrat which could be targetted by PN subs. Indian naval base in mumbai, Dams, electric grids, internet connection tower, cell towers, water plants, etc... would all be targeted by missile or airstrikes to demoralize the indian populace significantly.
> 
> ISI agents within india would be activated to forment division and conduct assymetric military operations. Pakistani defences forces should confuse the enemy as much as possible.
> 
> Phase 4- Further escalation. We have seen time and time again in the world that the crazy madman always wins and gets the best terms of surrender. Example being Nazi germany pre-1942, US nuclear bombing of japan, Bushs invasion of afghanistan/iraq. Having a no mercy mentality on our enemy should be policy. Even if Pakistani forces attain complete battlefield supremacy in the northern/southern sectors, we should conduct 8-12 tactical nuclear sub-kiloton strikes on key indian military targets. Targets should be of minimum civilian casualties but maximum military casualties. We want to get the best terms of surrender from them.
> 
> This would show a defeated enemy that we will destroy their nations unless Pakistan has full dominance of whatever would remain of a confederate states of india afterwards and thus attain complete strategic hegemony of the whole subcontinent. Such terms could be laid out in the conditions of surrender but would look something like this:
> 
> - Pakistan gains all of Kashmir, all of Punjab, and all of the thar desert within Rajasthan (as a natural buffer). Indian occupied kashmir and punjab would become new provinces within pakistan
> 
> - What remains of India would be liable to pay Pakistan/kashmir $500 bn USD upfront for the cost of damages over the last 70 years. This would be followed by a yearly payment of $40 bn over the next 100 years to Pakistans national treasury.
> 
> - Indian military would constitutionally not be allowed to become an offensive force. Numbers and budgets would be constitutionally limited similar to Japan after ww2.
> 
> - Pakistan would have full rights/access to any Indian military base including army/airforce/navy.
> 
> - All Indian foreign policy would have to be approved by Pakistan
> 
> Only once such terms of surrender have been achieved can there be peace in the subcontinent and the world.


what next? Did you ejaculate or someone woke you up!!

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## CriticalThought

SQ8 said:


> *FLOW COLD , FLOW COLD*
> 27th Feb 2019 . The PAF retaliates
> 
> The following scenario was planned out based upon known narratives and intel - the same implications of no human factor apart from me simply enacting actions of air controller redirects(to try and enforce both borders and possible directives apply). This follows to the fictional wargame start of the 26th February strike actually being successful and leading to 200+ Pakistani deaths, mostly young childen.
> 
> The national response is fury, images of dead children blasted around the media with condemnation from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey , Malaysia and even Russia asked India to show restraint. Diplomats are working around the clock and the Indian public themselves are divided with the rabid Bhakt following celebrating child deaths as superior deliverance while Indian civil society shivers in horror.
> 
> The PAF provided multiple options to the leadership while shouting matches broke out during the NSC meeting as tempers and temperament collided. The FM and a military leader were hesitant to launch a massive decapitating strike against a IAF airbase while some clamored for an all out attack claiming that it would incapacitate Indian leadership and possibly provide an avenue into Kashmir.
> 
> Finally, the limited response was chosen with the intent to cause equal military casualties to India and relieve pressure on LOC sectors with the highest ceasefire violations.
> 
> The following is a review of what would occur in that aerial engagement - if
> 1. All pilots are equally competent
> 2. All forces respond as per training
> 3. Algorithms for radar, missile kinematics and set 15 second OODA loops play out
> 
> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Indos @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) - please let me know if someone wants to unfollow and I wont tag them
> 
> The result is no vacillating IAF and fighters that fight and a PAF that is more gloves off..
> 
> Make sure to force select 1080p quality otherwise the text & graphics are too blurred for any meaning.



There is something fundamentally wrong with your simulation. Computer controlled adversaries, and a 100% kill rate for one side? I don't want to waste time on this. Did you pick one point out of a larger monte carlo simulation?


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## SQ8

CriticalThought said:


> There is something fundamentally wrong with your simulation. Computer controlled adversaries, and a 100% kill rate for one side? I don't want to waste time on this. Did you pick one point out of a larger monte carlo simulation?


You don’t have to waste time if you didn’t bother to read what platform this was run on and how that works. However, I too was expecting losses for the other side as well but as it is all probability and odds it did not seem to happen.

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## Jackdaws

Bizarre. Sorry to burst the bubble of the think tank. But neither side is going to war. They will engage in low intensity conflicts without things spiralling into a full war. And honestly, the Pakistanis are more likely to come to the aid of China in a conflict with India than vice versa.

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## SQ8

Jackdaws said:


> Bizarre. Sorry to burst the bubble of the think tank. But neither side is going to war. They will engage in low intensity conflicts without things spiralling into a full war. And honestly, the Pakistanis are more likely to come to the aid of China in a conflict with India than vice versa.


There is no “bubble” to burst here - this is purely Hypothetical (definition available) based upon an even more of a hyperbole put together by a US based think tank - its even in the thread title.

In fact, in every post if _*intelligent*_ people would bother to read , the fictional and spurious nature of the scenarios is highlighted.

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## Jackdaws

SQ8 said:


> There is no “bubble” to burst here - this is purely Hypothetical (definition available) based upon an even more of a hyperbole put together by a US based think tank - its even in the thread title.
> 
> In fact, in every post if _*intelligent*_ people would bother to read , the fictional and spurious nature of the scenarios is highlighted.


My post doesn't dismiss the sequence of events ; it merely insinuates that the premise itself based on which the hypothetical scenario plays out is flawed. A more serious hypothesis would take into account the tactical nukes that Pakistan possesses, the political upheavel in India, much quicker intervention by the US because of the Indian lobby there. Anyway, best of luck


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## PakFactor

arjunk said:


> Pakistani cities, industries, and other resources are mostly within 150km of the Indian border. This is especially true in North Punjab/Kashmir areas. North Punjab also has the densest road and rail network in the country. Pakistani cities and towns can inflict large amounts of damage on an occupying army because the population is heavily armed. Bringing ammunition and resources to the frontlines is not a problem.
> 
> On the other hand, the same cannot be said for India. Logistics and sustainability have always been a problem for them. During Brasstacks and 2001-2002, the Pakistan Army mobilised far faster than their Indian counterparts and at a fraction of the cost. Even in 2019, they were videos of Indian tanks getting stuck in crappy roads while moving to the Pakistan border.



However, logistics isn’t only about the movement of troops to the front line, your talking about food, ammunition, fuel, clothing, etc. Your main issue would also be raw material logistics in an armed conflict that can restrict war production within the country, after sanctions are placed tying both hands behind ones back, other nations put on notice by larger powers not to resupply our forces or be prepared to face consequences — how can you maneuver in this scenario? Can Pakistan offer enough value to other nations that the pain they’ll face is worth it? Heck, we were out maneuvered by simple Sheikhs during IKs saga of going to Malaysia. 

I care not if you have 100M armed Pakistanis ready to fight with AKs and Jazba, but rather how to keep them resupplied would be my concern. As without fresh supplies they’ll lose their morale. When you see your enemy having a hot meal on the front line and your eating canned cold meat, this wouldn’t provide motivation to even fight, hence, you lost the war before it started.

Our 1971 War, we suffered from logistics greatly couldn’t supply, move troops or anything to East Pakistan. Had we been able to history might have been kind to us.

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## Moon

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


Where would Indian proxies in Pakistan come into this equation? TTP, BLA etc? They've launched successful operations in the past, destroying military equipment and killing scores of our troops and massive civillian casualties... Their sleeper cells could assassinate top leader and what not, in "self-sacrificing" attacks, potentially ending a conflict before it even starts.
Afghanistan allying with Indians is also a reality, dunno where Iran would stand.

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## VCheng

SQ8 said:


> There is no “bubble” to burst here - this is purely Hypothetical (definition available) based upon an even more of a hyperbole put together by a US based think tank - its even in the thread title.
> 
> In fact, in every post if _*intelligent*_ people would bother to read , the fictional and spurious nature of the scenarios is highlighted.



Thank you for an immensely entertaining thread.


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## SQ8

Mr.Meap said:


> Where would Indian proxies in Pakistan come into this equation? TTP, BLA etc? They've launched successful operations in the past, destroying military equipment and killing scores of our troops and massive civillian casualties... Their sleeper cells could assassinate top leader and what not, in "self-sacrificing" attacks, potentially ending a conflict before it even starts.
> Afghanistan allying with Indians is also a reality, dunno where Iran would stand.


That is a good idea
Lets say it is after the last scenario - which is 27th February after and India is gearing for its response. Would they utilize these assets right then or use them later in an escalation?

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## Sayfullah

Simple when war starts declare it Ghazwa e Hind and you’ll see millions of mujahideen rise willing to do jihad in India. Even some Indian Muslims will help us if we declare it jihad against kaffar.

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## Moon

SQ8 said:


> That is a good idea
> Lets say it is after the last scenario - which is 27th February after and India is gearing for its response. Would they utilize these assets right then or use them later in an escalation?


I'd say after the first volley. As soon as PAF jets land after their first sortie, and enough manpower (which was dedicated to base defense) has been mobilised to the front lines. Plant a few bombs on railway tracks carrying munitions, attempt a few infiltrations in Cantonments to take people hostage (especially smaller ones like Bannu, Zhob etc...) Assassinations of top brass would definitely be difficult, considering they'd be surrounded by troops and what not, but again can't rule out IEDs targeting convoys in Pindi and Islamabad.
Afghanistan could open a front on their behalf, considering they've been eyeing Pakistani land for 75 years.


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## SQ8

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
28th February 2019 - 0100 Hours

After the losses and smattering from the overwhelming PAF force on the 27th - all hell broke loose in Dehli. There was disbelief coupled with fury for most with the desire to teach Pakistan a terrible lesson. The few cautious voices encouraging reaching out to allies and friends to put pressure on Pakistan instead of all out attack or suggesting putting Balochi or Mohajir faces on TV as part of a wider campaign found themselves silenced or nearly attacked themselves by the more virulent members of the cabinet.

The Indian military brass in general however wanted nothing less than giving Pakistan a heavy blow that in their mind would resemble the shock and awe of the 2003 Gulf war. To them, their "one hand tied" approach with Pakistan over the last few days is what cost 6 aircraft and hundreds of men and critical material on the Loc. If it were up to this leadership and most members of the cabinet, Pakistan would have been hit in its critical nodes on the 26th along with terror leaders. There were cautious voices within the military, those that pointed out that Pakistani air systems had performed better than expected on the 27th and for a bit the PM and the NSA were convinced on using a massive Brahmos strike alone. However, this was not to last as it was thought the Pakistanis would escalate with their own cruise or ballistic systems in kind and drag in the United States and other powers in a nuclear bluff.

But as this was being considered - the hawks had already won over in both the military and cabinet. While the PAF & IAF played chicken over the LoC the Indian military was instructed to give a broad based shock and awe that went beyond the Kashmir region as such and would target Northern Pakistan.

If Pakistan had jammed Indian Radars, India would simply destroy Pakistani ones along with any air defense elements in the way and steamroll through. Those citing that this would lead to full fledged conflict were shot down with explanations of how this would stun the Pakistani establishment and government struggling with a nearly dead economy to simply seek de-escalation. Even if the Pakistanis retaliated, it was surmised that India would raise the nuclear gambit to force world powers to intervene.

The plan was to hit Pakistani military targets all across the LoC and any supporting FOBs and divisional HQs. To give international legitimacy to the massive attack, LeT targets in Muridke and Sheikupura along with a suspected camp in Mansehra would be selected to provide justification on the basis of terrorism - but also to strike fear in the Pakistani civilian population in Lahore with explosions around the city's periphery. 

Pakistan had used 40 odd aircraft on the 27th and India would respond with nearly 90 attacking some 60 targets overall. M-777s and Bofors had been moved forward to start a massive bombardment across the LoC on Pakistani targets - while it was expected that the Pakistanis would respond the IAF would attack across the LoC at both designated and targets of opportunity.

The Brahmos option was repurposed - with a massive barrage planned to coincide with interdicting Indian aircraft and hitting multiple targets including key radar systems to blind the Pakistani Air Defense grid. Pakistani retaliation with SSMs was to be expected but by the time it got going world powers would intervene - and if they did strike India could absorb a few blows.

Inklings of movement and intelligence was trickling into Pakistan - but the general mood was that the Indians might just leave at heavy mortars and cross border violations in the spirit of de-escalation. Especially since it was thought that the Indians were becoming aware of what the Chinese were doing in their backyard up north.

But as the clock struck 1am on the morning of the 28th... things were to be very different.

The opening salvo was not delivered by an Indian military system, but rather by a mix of TTP and BLA insurgents assisted by a local criminal gang bought out for less than $20000. The target was PAF Mushaf whose guard post and perimeter was awakened by gunfire along with mortar rounds. @Mr.Meap 






As the base was distracted to rush towards this threat the PAF radar picture seemed to show all quiet on the eastern front as the IAF seemed to have withdrawn its heavy CAPs as well. A EMB-145 Netra was seen in the area along with what was noticed as three il-78 airframes but that could be routine.






Unknown to the Pakistanis, some 70 Indian aircraft were starting to get airborne - Mirage 2000s armed with Crystal Maze, Spice and LGBs to target the LeT Camps at Muridke, Shiekhupura and Mansehra. SEAD escorts of Su-30MKIs armed with KH-31s and Mirage-2000s with ARMATs.
Jaguar IS flights were gearing up to hit preplanned targets of Ammo Dumps while Mirage 2000s would hit the HQs and FOBs of the Pakistan Army. Some 12 MKIs were focused on fighter sweeps, along with Mig-29UPGs and Mig-21 bisons. Finally, a large bison flight from Srinagar and Pathankot would conduct rocket strikes. Every pilot equipped with NVGs with targets pin pointed- they rolled across the tarmac.






As the packages got airborne - diversionary caps started flying near the LoC with IAI Searcher and Heron UAVs marking targets for the LoC strikes.





Bofors and M-777s had their Pakistani forward post targets in range with the UAVs ensuring accuracy. But as the UAVs neared the LoC the PAF Combat Air Patrols were vectored towards them.











Around 1:15 AM local time - the barrage began against Pakistani targets - as a JF-17 Block-2 flying with a retrofit AESA radar was authorized to shoot down the Heron.





As the barrage began, so did the launches of the first Brahmos towards a MPDR-45. Meanwhile - a flight of 2 MKIs and 2 Bisons was vectored right across the LoC to engage the JF-17s and clear the way for the strike aircraft expected soon.






As the alarms bells rang at AHQ and GHQ with the aide to the PM being called furiously on his cell to wake him up - the Brahmos strike crossed the border at Mach 2 heading for the radar situated near Lahore.









There was little warning to the personnel around the radar - all they heard was a small bang from what seemed to be nothing more than a street light - but then mere milliseconds later the radar and everything within a 100m radius was blown to smithereens. The loss of picture was immediately noticed at AHQ - but there was a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne to still give a clear idea and a misleading conclusion by a senior officer that it may be a follow up terror attack to Sargodha saw this key clue missed.

As the first Indian flight crossed the LoC - both SD-10s and R-77s flew across. The PAF was starting to scramble its alert fighters as 4 F-16s were rushed into the air while 2 more plus 4 JF-17s and 6 F-7PGs were readied from Alert 30 to launch.






The SD-10 Struck home and a Mig-21 Bison was the first aircraft to go down in flames over Punch as the terrified civilians across both sides of the LoC - already fearful for their lives watched fireworks unfold.




Meanwhile - this initial sweep continued to engage PAF fighters - but was soon faced with a AIM-120 Barrage from the very deadly F--16s from 11 and 9sqs of the PAF. But the intention, to divert the PAF north first worked.





As Aim-120s struck home and brought down 2 MKIs - the R-77 Barrage took its toll and the 9sq flight was no more.





More MKIs from the north now joined the foray as the PAF interceptors scrambled to defend their airspace. Knowing they were outranged - the MKIs flew hot and cold trying to break apart the 2 11sq aircraft - finally getting in range to launch their volley at them but not without losing 1 to a AIM-120





By this time, it was clear - this wasn't some small skirmish. As the IAF aircraft approached the border - Brahmos batteries unleashed their arsenal in full force.






Missiles flew back and forth - Air to Air, Crystal Maze Cruise systems and Brahmos - scream towards their respective targets.






What wasnt known to the IAF was an operational HQ-16 battery near Gujranwala - as the Indian aircraft crossed the border it let loose. Within a few minutes Mirages and Jaguars were jettisoning their loads trying to crane their necks looking for the incoming Sams. 2 went down immediately - MKIs launched KH-31s towards the HQ-16 while the Indian aircraft dropped to low level.

However, the Pakistanis had covered the most common approaches - and RBS-70 and Anza teams awaited guidance.

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## SQ8

As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors. 







By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately. 

As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense 










As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious. 







Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent.





Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape.





The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.




As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77. 

At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu. 







The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets. 

At the end - 
*
Pakistani losses*
14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_

1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_

34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_

7x Ammo Bunker -_Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos_

15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] _secondary explosions and rocket attacks_

13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) _- Artillery and Jaguar strikes_

14x Bunkers - _ Brahmos and Mirage 2000_

3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - _MKI and Bison _

1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- _MKI and Bison_

4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - _MKI , Mig-29 and Bison_

4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - _MK_I

3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2-_ MKI and Bison_

2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA)_ MKI and Bison_

1x Radar (China YLC-2V) _- Brahmos_

2x Radar (MPDR-45) _ - Brahmos_

3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] _Jaguar with dumb bombs_

3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] _M2k with LGB_

1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] _MKI_

3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB 

1x Div HQ - _M2k Spice 2000_

1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - _MKI_

1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]_- Jaguar_

6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] _- Jaguar_
*
Indian losses*

1x Heron UAV
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000H-5
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H

*
Ending note: 
I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective. *

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## Mumm-Ra

SQ8 said:


> As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.
> 
> View attachment 752008
> 
> 
> 
> By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.
> 
> As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense
> 
> 
> View attachment 752009
> View attachment 752010
> 
> 
> As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.
> 
> View attachment 752011
> 
> 
> 
> Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent.
> View attachment 752012
> 
> 
> Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape.
> View attachment 752013
> 
> 
> The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
> View attachment 752014
> 
> As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.
> 
> At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.
> 
> View attachment 752015
> 
> 
> 
> The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.
> 
> At the end -
> 
> *Pakistani losses*
> 14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 7x Ammo Bunker -_Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos_
> 
> 15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] _secondary explosions and rocket attacks_
> 
> 13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) _- Artillery and Jaguar strikes_
> 
> 14x Bunkers - _ Brahmos and Mirage 2000_
> 
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - _MKI and Bison _
> 
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- _MKI and Bison_
> 
> 4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - _MKI , Mig-29 and Bison_
> 
> 4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - _MK_I
> 
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2-_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA)_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 1x Radar (China YLC-2V) _- Brahmos_
> 
> 2x Radar (MPDR-45) _ - Brahmos_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] _Jaguar with dumb bombs_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] _M2k with LGB_
> 
> 1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] _MKI_
> 
> 3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB
> 
> 1x Div HQ - _M2k Spice 2000_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - _MKI_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]_- Jaguar_
> 
> 6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] _- Jaguar_
> 
> *Indian losses*
> 
> 1x Heron UAV
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
> 3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 2x Mirage 2000H-5
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 
> 
> *Ending note:
> I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective. *


so few takeaways:
1- the absence of a long range air defense system was sorely felt as it might have given Pakistan some definite advantages while dealing with such a massive onslaught
2-That counter artillery fire at LOC was not effective is news to me as I think that we would have responded with some equal ferocity here.
3-The forward movement of M-777, Bofors and Brahmos from rear areas was missed and a reciprocal movement of heavy hitters from Pak side did not materialize. The reason may have been intelligence failure or just plain negligence 
4-There is a strong possibility that PAF would eventually be overwhelmed by IAF 
5-F7-PG was ineffective in dealing with the IAF threat.
6-Somehow a general lax attitude prevailed in HQs (which is very confusing for me)

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## KaiserX

SQ8 said:


> As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.
> 
> View attachment 752008
> 
> 
> 
> By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.
> 
> As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense
> 
> 
> View attachment 752009
> View attachment 752010
> 
> 
> As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.
> 
> View attachment 752011
> 
> 
> 
> Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent.
> View attachment 752012
> 
> 
> Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape.
> View attachment 752013
> 
> 
> The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
> View attachment 752014
> 
> As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.
> 
> At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.
> 
> View attachment 752015
> 
> 
> 
> The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.
> 
> At the end -
> 
> *Pakistani losses*
> 14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 7x Ammo Bunker -_Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos_
> 
> 15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] _secondary explosions and rocket attacks_
> 
> 13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) _- Artillery and Jaguar strikes_
> 
> 14x Bunkers - _ Brahmos and Mirage 2000_
> 
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - _MKI and Bison _
> 
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- _MKI and Bison_
> 
> 4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - _MKI , Mig-29 and Bison_
> 
> 4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - _MK_I
> 
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2-_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA)_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 1x Radar (China YLC-2V) _- Brahmos_
> 
> 2x Radar (MPDR-45) _ - Brahmos_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] _Jaguar with dumb bombs_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] _M2k with LGB_
> 
> 1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] _MKI_
> 
> 3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB
> 
> 1x Div HQ - _M2k Spice 2000_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - _MKI_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]_- Jaguar_
> 
> 6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] _- Jaguar_
> 
> *Indian losses*
> 
> 1x Heron UAV
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
> 3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 2x Mirage 2000H-5
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 
> 
> *Ending note:
> I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective. *



Your scenario doesnt take into fact a lot of consideration such as the following:

1) Pakistan would play fully defensive and not react with its own hard hitting strikes back on Indian forward operating bases/airfields/ammo dumps/etc...

2) Technically Pakistan has equality if not numeral superiority in aircraft along the LOC/IB. India is vast and has its own airbases along the Chinese/Eastern borders. As well as southern India. It would take India time to divert much of its airforce towards the north western bases to face Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence would surely notice this movement far beforehand.

3) Such a large strike would be noticed by multiple Pakistani radars/air defences/AWACs hundreds of kilometers away from the border. The reason India was able to remotely launch airstrikes in 2019 was because their strike package was so small. Now Pakistan has bought/deployed the latest Chinese HQ-16Bs and radars along the border. These are as capable as Israeli missiles.

4) Your analysis doesnt take into consideration the large number of Babur/NASR/C802/C803/Shaheen/Ghauri missile batteries deployed. If India were to escalate to using Brahmos/Privithi missiles Pakistan would instantly respond with x5 the amount of targets hit. This threat was clearly given to the Indians in Feb 2017 when they threaten to launch 5 Brahmos missile and we said we would hit them back with 15 in return.

5) Just as India can hit lahore or major cities close to the border Pakistan can also mobilize on a mass basis and take the fight to Indian cities such as Amristar or Srinagar as we have done in the past. Today Pakistan is hundred times more capable and may go upto mainland india such as haryana/gujrat/rajasthan.

Not just that but striking a major base or city like lahore would be met with an overwhelming response by the Pakistani nation in return taking out x5 times the bases or hitting x5 times the cities in India.

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## SQ8

KaiserX said:


> Your scenario doesnt take into fact a lot of consideration such as the following:
> 
> 1) Pakistan would play fully defensive and not react with its own hard hitting strikes back on Indian forward operating bases/airfields/ammo dumps/etc...
> 
> 2) Technically Pakistan has equality if not numeral superiority in aircraft along the LOC/IB. India is vast and has its own airbases along the Chinese/Eastern borders. As well as southern India. It would take India time to divert much of its airforce towards the north western bases to face Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence would surely notice this movement far beforehand.
> 
> 3) Such a large strike would be noticed by multiple Pakistani radars/air defences/AWACs hundreds of kilometers away from the border. The reason India was able to remotely launch airstrikes in 2019 was because their strike package was so small. Now Pakistan has bought/deployed the latest Chinese HQ-16Bs and radars along the border. These are as capable as Israeli missiles.
> 
> 4) Your analysis doesnt take into consideration the large number of Babur/NASR/C802/C803/Shaheen/Ghauri missile batteries deployed. If India were to escalate to using Brahmos/Privithi missiles Pakistan would instantly respond with x5 the amount of targets hit. This threat was clearly given to the Indians in Feb 2017 when they threaten to launch 5 Brahmos missile and we said we would hit them back with 15 in return.
> 
> 5) Just as India can hit lahore or major cities close to the border Pakistan can also mobilize on a mass basis and take the fight to Indian cities such as Amristar or Srinagar as we have done in the past. Today Pakistan is hundred times more capable and may go upto mainland india such as haryana/gujrat/rajasthan.
> 
> Not just that but striking a major base or city like lahore would be met with an overwhelming response by the Pakistani nation in return taking out x5 times the bases or hitting x5 times the cities in India.


All good points - bear in mind I am going day by day and not painting months or weeks.

1- that was shown in the 27th February run, as a retaliation for the 26th February strike. I will once again point to the initial briefing for how this simulation works.
@PanzerKiel I assume that the basic premise of most wargame sims since the early days of rolling a die have not changed?

2 - Just as on the 26th, Indian aircraft did not move into FoBs and instead refueled over mainland India to get to their targets. There is a possibility (much as the Indians missed the amassing at Skardu for Kargil) of it being missed.

3- The date for this is 28th February 2019 - yet there is a HQ16 active and makes a big impact

4 - Also mentioned the reason why they were - although mostly out of curiosity since without the Brahmos the Indians would need 120 jets and the results were quite different.

5 - mentioned again, bear in mind there are enough insane voices in the Indian government and state to still attempt this.

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## SQ8

Mumm-Ra said:


> so few takeaways:
> 1- the absence of a long range air defense system was sorely felt as it might have given Pakistan some definite advantages while dealing with such a massive onslaught
> 2-That counter artillery fire at LOC was not effective is news to me as I think that we would have responded with some equal ferocity here.
> 3-The forward movement of M-777, Bofors and Brahmos from rear areas was missed and a reciprocal movement of heavy hitters from Pak side did not materialize. The reason may have been intelligence failure or just plain negligence
> 4-There is a strong possibility that PAF would eventually be overwhelmed by IAF
> 5-F7-PG was ineffective in dealing with the IAF threat.
> 6-Somehow a general lax attitude prevailed in HQs (which is very confusing for me)


1 It does but the single HQ-16 still proves effective at inflicting losses on the IAF - what would be the impact of more than 2-3 batteries?

2 - It was more about being outranged - I was hesitant to place batteries too close to the LoC but according to the database the simulation uses the M-777 and Bofors outrange the Type-59s I had there.

3 - Think Kargil

4 - With enough aircraft in the air they will. But the effects of the PAF still having a longer BVR stick cannot be overstated enough. Pretty much every IAF aircraft is shot at first- the best bet they have is getting numerical superiority to have more shooters than the PAF in the air.

5 - Very much, they were picked off by R-77s long before they could bring any weapons to bear. It is a BVR fight for the future through and through - merges where much vaunted thrust vectoring would have any impact are absolutely impossible to get to in 80-90% of scenarios with BVR armed aircraft.


Mohamed Bin Tughlaq said:


> Who wrote this fanfic... What an unrealistic pile of dog-shxt and also the exchanges it is like taken from a fairytale and the junk Indian airforce like mirages is overrated out of porportions which doesn't make militarily sense.. Couple of nuclear exchange had happened at that point and a massive Pakistani ground incursion into India as soon as the nuclear winter dust settles in and crops fail. It would just be a matter of time India runs out of food completely majority of them will cannibalize each other literally for survival instinct..
> 
> Defeat always comes from the simple things you don't consider or always overlook. At that point once Nuclear winter settles in globally it is advantage Pakistan in a very grim post-apocalyptic environment they just don't have the mental fortitude for that unlike Pakistan that has the mental fortitude to press on and that is actully when their offensive first begins.. Indians simply don't have the stomach to grind it out at that point. It is all game for them but once they see no food is availble it is the beginning of the end


Hope your keyboard survived this


One more point - *This was never meant to be “This is how it might happen” rather a “I cobbled this together between the hours of 11:30pm - 1Am .. how do you think it really should have happened?

Tell me where to place what, do what and ill let the algorithms do the rest. Or download it yourself if you have $90 burning a hole in your pocket.*

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## SQ8

Also - @PanzerKiel @Jungibaaz - appreciate the positive ratings but this tripe really isn’t worth it. At best its avoiding having to watch “The woman in the window” with the Mrs material. 
Still, a reason to log into PDF other than seeing some things stay more the same regardless of hidden positives jo bayan nahin ho sakte ya koi LinkedIn ya scholarly khol ke bhi dekhta nahin hai.

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> All good points - bear in mind I am going day by day and not painting months or weeks.
> 
> 1- that was shown in the 27th February run, as a retaliation for the 26th February strike. I will once again point to the initial briefing for how this simulation works.
> @PanzerKiel I assume that the basic premise of most wargame sims since the early days of rolling a die have not changed?
> 
> 2 - Just as on the 26th, Indian aircraft did not move into FoBs and instead refueled over mainland India to get to their targets. There is a possibility (much as the Indians missed the amassing at Skardu for Kargil) of it being missed.
> 
> 3- The date for this is 28th February 2019 - yet there is a HQ16 active and makes a big impact
> 
> 4 - Also mentioned the reason why they were - although mostly out of curiosity since without the Brahmos the Indians would need 120 jets and the results were quite different.
> 
> 5 - mentioned again, bear in mind there are enough insane voices in the Indian government and state to still attempt this.


Agreed..... 
With regards to initial part of your point number 2, we did the same on 27 Feb.


SQ8 said:


> 1 It does but the single HQ-16 still proves effective at inflicting losses on the IAF - what would be the impact of more than 2-3 batteries?
> 
> 2 - It was more about being outranged - I was hesitant to place batteries too close to the LoC but according to the database the simulation uses the M-777 and Bofors outrange the Type-59s I had there.
> 
> 3 - Think Kargil
> 
> 4 - With enough aircraft in the air they will. But the effects of the PAF still having a longer BVR stick cannot be overstated enough. Pretty much every IAF aircraft is shot at first- the best bet they have is getting numerical superiority to have more shooters than the PAF in the air.
> 
> 5 - Very much, they were picked off by R-77s long before they could bring any weapons to bear. It is a BVR fight for the future through and through - merges where much vaunted thrust vectoring would have any impact are absolutely impossible to get to in 80-90% of scenarios with BVR armed aircraft.
> 
> Hope your keyboard survived this
> 
> 
> One more point - *This was never meant to be “This is how it might happen” rather a “I cobbled this together between the hours of 11:30pm - 1Am .. how do you think it really should have happened?
> 
> Tell me where to place what, do what and ill let the algorithms do the rest. Or download it yourself if you have $90 burning a hole in your pocket.*


.... Moreover, IAF doesn't require to completely destroy PAF in order to achieve sir supremacy, we should remember 1971 and those four Squadrons in West Pakistan which did not participate at all during the war.

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Agreed.....
> With regards to initial part of your point number 2, we did the same on 27 Feb.
> 
> .... Moreover, IAF doesn't require to completely destroy PAF in order to achieve sir supremacy, we should remember 1971 and those four Squadrons in West Pakistan which did not participate at all during the war.


As to the point of what this is - I wouldn’t even equate it to a table top exercise(_although expert users of this platform are able to create much more detailed scenarios with event and location triggers, exacting ToTs down to exact airfield design - not to mention BaE licenses a more in depth professional version of it for use with I assume an actual military_)

A reference to an actual procedure which I assume is fairly similar to what Pak Mil uses is here US Army Wargame handbook

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## Pakistan Space Agency

I remember watching this Japanese anime: Yugo- The Negotiator.

Even in this episode, Pakistan Army was portrayed as an evil force fighting against some Tribal people in the mountains. And, I wondered why Japan would portray Pakistan like that even though I've never heard Japanese Government say anything bad against Pakistan.


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## SQ8

Pakistan Space Agency said:


> I remember watching this Japanese anime: Yugo- The Negotiator.
> 
> Even in this episode, Pakistan Army was portrayed as an evil force fighting against some Tribal people in the mountains. And, I wondered why Japan would portray Pakistan like that even though I've never heard Japanese Government say anything bad against Pakistan.


Thank 20 years of western fiction and non-fiction painting it so. 1998 Peacemaker movie - a Pakistani nuclear scientist makes a bomb - 2008 Iron Man - A Pakistani terrorist.

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## Jungibaaz

SQ8 said:


> Also - @PanzerKiel @Jungibaaz - appreciate the positive ratings but this tripe really isn’t worth it. At best its avoiding having to watch “The woman in the window” with the Mrs material.
> Still, a reason to log into PDF other than seeing some things stay more the same regardless of hidden positives jo bayan nahin ho sakte ya koi LinkedIn ya scholarly khol ke bhi dekhta nahin hai.


This is possibly one of the best threads I’ve seen in a long while. I don’t usually wax lyrical like this, but even given the obvious limitations of the simulation (which has been reiterated multiple times now) and many assumptions besides, it’s still worth assessing how any future conflict like this might unfold. Also, feel free not to continuously defend the assumptions made in these scenarios, they’ll continue to repeat. 

The whole point of assessments like this is to consider something close to the worst case scenario. It’s this type of training that promotes resourcefulness and excellence in both tactics and doctrine in our armed forces. I always think, that if we were even half the size of India, we’d have probably eaten them alive. Punching above your weight involves preparing to fight on worse terms. It’s not like what the IAF does, which is to train in favourable scenarios, and then disappoint in the actual because the other side managed to surprise you and refused to abide by the parameters you trained for.

Also, I think some of the assumptions made are actually quite fair. People are forgetting how ineffective Indian AD was against our well prepared and layered attack. It involved SEAD, EW, comms and radar jamming/spoofing, numerical superiority by design, diversions, and suppression of enemy interceptors. If we managed it, why is it unfair to assume the Indians mightn’t be able to? Especially given the mad political backdrop outlined here, which is an utterly unleashed Indian military. 

IMO during the course of the operation, for the defender, situational awareness lags reality, and both RoEs and response can lag behind situational awareness. That last post explained it well, when the attack happens, how long do you take to realise it? How long before the scale of it becomes apparent, and how accurate is your real time assessment of the threat? How will you effectively respond in time? All these things are rarely discussed on the forum, we’re usually just talking platforms and weapons.

One thing about this exercise that I find perturbing is that if the Indians escalate enough and conduct a successful strike, it seems as though it would leave us little room to respond conventionally. All while Uncle Sam et al pressure us not to respond at all, and immediately deescalate.

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## SQ8

Jungibaaz said:


> This is possibly one of the best threads I’ve seen in a long while. I don’t usually wax lyrical like this, but even given the obvious limitations of the simulation (which has been reiterated multiple times now) and many assumptions besides, it’s still worth assessing how any future conflict like this might unfold. Also, feel free not to continuously defend the assumptions made in these scenarios, they’ll continue to repeat.
> 
> The whole point of assessments like this is to consider something close to the worst case scenario. It’s this type of training that promotes resourcefulness and excellence in both tactics and doctrine in our armed forces. I always think, that if we were even half the size of India, we’d have probably eaten them alive. Punching above your weight involves preparing to fight on worse terms. It’s not like what the IAF does, which is to train in favourable scenarios, and then disappoint in the actual because the other side managed to surprise you and refused to abide by the parameters you trained for.
> 
> Also, I think some of the assumptions made are actually quite fair. People are forgetting how ineffective Indian AD was against our well prepared and layered attack. It involved SEAD, EW, comms and radar jamming/spoofing, numerical superiority by design, diversions, and suppression of enemy interceptors. If we managed it, why is it unfair to assume the Indians mightn’t be able to? Especially given the mad political backdrop outlined here, which is an utterly unleashed Indian military.
> 
> IMO during the course of the operation, for the defender, situational awareness lags reality, and both RoEs and response can lag behind situational awareness. That last post explained it well, when the attack happens, how long do you take to realise it? How long before the scale of it becomes apparent, and how accurate is your real time assessment of the threat? How will you effectively respond in time? All these things are rarely discussed on the forum, we’re usually just talking platforms and weapons.
> 
> One thing about this exercise that I find perturbing is that if the Indians escalate enough and conduct a successful strike, it seems as though it would leave us little room to respond conventionally. All while Uncle Sam et al pressure us not to respond at all, and immediately deescalate.


I am deliberately “forcing” stupid escalatory decisions as you can probably tell. What we saw with the Shaheen movement to the Brahmos on the 27th is much much more the likely outcome - but the intent of the thread was less of the geopolitical game and more of the systems facing each other.
As an example - if I replace some of the strike forces with the Rafale then it is the IAF taking first shots and not the PAF which makes a big difference.

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## White Lion

SQ8 said:


> 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)


I know this is just a simulation hence not very close to reality yet it is the best we can get to the reality. The only question that comes to my mind is the Alliances (Played as Pakistan) still does not show the strategic partners in regards to those countries that have invested in Gawadar and CPEC. 

1.) F-15 SA are the last thing that can be provided for support as USA would be protecting India their Strategic Partner. The Americans would never allow KSA to send aircraft to Pakistan unless KSA declares war against India. 

2) Turkey is completely missing which is really confusing as they were the only country to offer manpower during both 1965 and 1971 Wars between India and Pakistan. Moreover Turk Honor their friends who have blead for their independence and the capture of Istanbul after WW1. Something my Turkish friends would acknowledge. 

3) Azerbaijan is also not present which is surprising as Turkey could find a loophole through them to supply any thing Pakistan wants and join the conflict covertly to fool USA and NATO. 

4) Tajikistan who relies on CPEC for trade is missing is also interesting as Russia would use them as a cover candidate to enter the war initially not to antagonize USA till USA enters the conflict directly.

5) Russia enters the war from the start due to CPEC and their agreement with China to protect China in case of war agreement that states if China is attacked it would be considered an attack on Russia and vice versa. 

6) China would not wait but would enter the war from day one of the conflict. This is because China considers an attack on Islamabad would be considered as an attack on Beijing. 

7) Italy, Ukraine and Belarus would enter the war along side Pakistan by selling EFT, Tanks and what ever Russia can supply Belarus can supply. 

8) We tend to forget Kosovo. Kosovo though does not have major arms industry of their own but they are the only Muslim Country in Europe and they can procure any thing from Europe and supply to Pakistan provided Payments are made in cash. Pakistan would go on an hyperdrive to procure as many weapons it can manage in the shortest possible time trough funding from Turkey and the Gulf States. 

9) There is no mention of Qatar and Kuwait who would fully support Pakistan from the very first minute of the war at least financially. This founding would be channeled trough Turkey mainly. Incase KSA enters the war then the Islamic Military Alliance would definately also declare war against India (except UAE). 

10) Iran is the only country that IMO would be the most troubled on as she would be in the dilemma to be or not to be a part of this war. The reason is they were and are the only ones who consider an attack on any Muslim state as an attack on them.

There may be some other who would be pro Pakistan but remain in the covers so that espionage can be protected.

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## SQ8

White Lion said:


> I know this is just a simulation hence not very close to reality yet it is the best we can get to the reality. The only question that comes to my mind is the Alliances (Played as Pakistan) still does not show the strategic partners in regards to those countries that have invested in Gawadar and CPEC.
> 
> 1.) F-15 SA are the last thing that can be provided for support as USA would be protecting India their Strategic Partner. The Americans would never allow KSA to send aircraft to Pakistan unless KSA declares war against India.
> 
> 2) Turkey is completely missing which is really confusing as they were the only country to offer manpower during both 1965 and 1971 Wars between India and Pakistan. Moreover Turk Honor their friends who have blead for their independence and the capture of Istanbul after WW1. Something my Turkish friends would acknowledge.
> 
> 3) Azerbaijan is also not present which is surprising as Turkey could find a loophole through them to supply any thing Pakistan wants and join the conflict covertly to fool USA and NATO.
> 
> 4) Tajikistan who relies on CPEC for trade is missing is also interesting as Russia would use them as a cover candidate to enter the war initially not to antagonize USA till USA enters the conflict directly.
> 
> 5) Russia enters the war from the start due to CPEC and their agreement with China to protect China in case of war agreement that states if China is attacked it would be considered an attack on Russia and vice versa.
> 
> 6) China would not wait but would enter the war from day one of the conflict. This is because China considers an attack on Islamabad would be considered as an attack on Beijing.
> 
> 7) Italy, Ukraine and Belarus would enter the war along side Pakistan by selling EFT, Tanks and what ever Russia can supply Belarus can supply.
> 
> 8) We tend to forget Kosovo. Kosovo though does not have major arms industry of their own but they are the only Muslim Country in Europe and they can procure any thing from Europe and supply to Pakistan provided Payments are made in cash. Pakistan would go on an hyperdrive to procure as many weapons it can manage in the shortest possible time trough funding from Turkey and the Gulf States.
> 
> 9) There is no mention of Qatar and Kuwait who would fully support Pakistan from the very first minute of the war at least financially. This founding would be channeled trough Turkey mainly. Incase KSA enters the war then the Islamic Military Alliance would definately also declare war against India (except UAE).
> 
> 10) Iran is the only country that IMO would be the most troubled on as she would be in the dilemma to be or not to be a part of this war. The reason is they were and are the only ones who consider an attack on any Muslim state as an attack on them.
> 
> There may be some other who would be pro Pakistan but remain in the covers so that espionage can be protected.


Lets keep the timeframe in mind and constant - its Feb 2019. Based on the last bit of scenario(albiet forced narrative) - what happens next?

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## White Lion

SQ8 said:


> Lets keep the timeframe in mind and constant - its Feb 2019. Based on the last bit of scenario(albiet forced narrative) - what happens next?


My post is considering 2019 or even prior to that. Planning for any conflict with India keeps on evolving. I based mine on events and statements leading to 2019. 

Where did you think my post was not in line with the time frame so that clarification can be given.


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## CrazyZ

SQ8 said:


> As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.
> 
> View attachment 752008
> 
> 
> 
> By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.
> 
> As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense
> 
> 
> View attachment 752009
> View attachment 752010
> 
> 
> As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.
> 
> View attachment 752011
> 
> 
> 
> Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent.
> View attachment 752012
> 
> 
> Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape.
> View attachment 752013
> 
> 
> The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
> View attachment 752014
> 
> As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.
> 
> At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.
> 
> View attachment 752015
> 
> 
> 
> The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.
> 
> At the end -
> 
> *Pakistani losses*
> 14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] _mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs_
> 
> 7x Ammo Bunker -_Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos_
> 
> 15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] _secondary explosions and rocket attacks_
> 
> 13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) _- Artillery and Jaguar strikes_
> 
> 14x Bunkers - _ Brahmos and Mirage 2000_
> 
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - _MKI and Bison _
> 
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- _MKI and Bison_
> 
> 4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - _MKI , Mig-29 and Bison_
> 
> 4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - _MK_I
> 
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2-_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA)_ MKI and Bison_
> 
> 1x Radar (China YLC-2V) _- Brahmos_
> 
> 2x Radar (MPDR-45) _ - Brahmos_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] _Jaguar with dumb bombs_
> 
> 3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] _M2k with LGB_
> 
> 1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] _MKI_
> 
> 3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB
> 
> 1x Div HQ - _M2k Spice 2000_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - _MKI_
> 
> 1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]_- Jaguar_
> 
> 6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] _- Jaguar_
> 
> *Indian losses*
> 
> 1x Heron UAV
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
> 1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
> 3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 2x Mirage 2000H-5
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 
> 
> *Ending note:
> I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective. *


My take is that the PA needs more fortified/bunkerized infantry& artillery firebases/fobs in southern Punjab and Sind. This will add to security against any Indian mechanized threats as well as provide sites for air defense/surveillance. Just their presence will force IAF to deploy resources to attack them..... and they can serve as lores for PAF and SAM ambush's.

As IAF squadron strength diminishes....the dilution effect of theses sites would be greater and greater. Especially since any real escalation in a Indo-Pak conflict will be short....the big guys will intervene to prevent any nuclear exchange....or it will simply go nuclear.

Shouldn't require too much resources. Some bulldozers, some concrete, some infantry (with tons of ATGMs) and mortors/field howitzers. Most expensive parts would probably be the air dense and radars.

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## SQ8

White Lion said:


> My post is considering 2019 or even prior to that. Planning for any conflict with India keeps on evolving. I based mine on events and statements leading to 2019.
> 
> Where did you think my post was not in line with the time frame so that clarification can be given.


What I mean is, what happens the next day. All the events you suggest can be incorporated but which of those should be included and how exactly on lets the 29th February


CrazyZ said:


> My take is that the PA needs more fortified/bunkerized infantry& artillery firebases/fobs in southern Punjab and Sind. This will add to security against any Indian mechanized threats as well as provide sites for air defense/surveillance. Just their presence will force IAF to deploy resources to attack them..... and they can serve as lores for PAF and SAM ambush's.
> 
> As IAF squadron strength diminishes....the dilution effect of theses sites would be greater and greater. Especially since any real escalation in a Indo-Pak conflict will be short....the big guys will intervene to prevent any nuclear exchange....or it will simply go nuclear.
> 
> Shouldn't require too much resources. Some bulldozers, some concrete, some infantry (with tons of ATGMs) and mortors/field howitzers. Most expensive parts would probably be the air dense and radars.


Agreed - but lets say for the sake of testing the systems out to the max - the escalation kept going. What happens next based on what you quoted? Who does what? If you tell me, I can try to simulate it.

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## Kyusuibu Honbu

Jackdaws said:


> Bizarre. Sorry to burst the bubble of the think tank. But neither side is going to war. They will engage in low intensity conflicts without things spiralling into a full war. *And honestly, the Pakistanis are more likely to come to the aid of China in a conflict with India than vice versa.*


Its the other way around

Every conflict we had with Pakistan except 1948 and 1971, Chinese have attempted to nibble some territory along the border

Chinese attempts to poke us during Siachen conflict backfired, rest have gone in their favor

Operation Falcon: When General Sundarji took the Chinese by surprise

Pakistan will stay away from Indo-Chinese conflicts as long as they have American military equipment and connections with American backed institutions like IMF

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## CrazyZ

SQ8 said:


> What I mean is, what happens the next day. All the events you suggest can be incorporated but which of those should be included and how exactly on lets the 29th February
> 
> Agreed - but lets say for the sake of testing the systems out to the max - the escalation kept going. What happens next based on what you quoted? Who does what? If you tell me, I can try to simulate it.


Well if the scenario is a Indian aerial escalation after swift retort.....and these forward firebases/fob with air defense were present. I would say Pakistan would have to accept that these sites would be hit by manned AC, drones, loitering munitions, Brahmos, attack helicopters and artillery. These fobs would have to be designed with bunkers deep and strong enough to take the beating (losses will be inevitable). Air defense equipment will have to be expendable or even decoy (possible unmanned themselves). As long as causalities are within acceptable margins they could give the PAF and long range SAM forces enough breathing room to grind away at the IAF.

Best case would be a battle of Britain scenario where IAF losses would be too great and they call off the offensive. Worst case is that PAF and long range SAM forces fails to inflict enough losses on the IAF and IAF achieves air superiority.

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## Sayfullah

SQ8 said:


> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
> 28th February 2019 - 0100 Hours
> 
> After the losses and smattering from the overwhelming PAF force on the 27th - all hell broke loose in Dehli. There was disbelief coupled with fury for most with the desire to teach Pakistan a terrible lesson. The few cautious voices encouraging reaching out to allies and friends to put pressure on Pakistan instead of all out attack or suggesting putting Balochi or Mohajir faces on TV as part of a wider campaign found themselves silenced or nearly attacked themselves by the more virulent members of the cabinet.
> 
> The Indian military brass in general however wanted nothing less than giving Pakistan a heavy blow that in their mind would resemble the shock and awe of the 2003 Gulf war. To them, their "one hand tied" approach with Pakistan over the last few days is what cost 6 aircraft and hundreds of men and critical material on the Loc. If it were up to this leadership and most members of the cabinet, Pakistan would have been hit in its critical nodes on the 26th along with terror leaders. There were cautious voices within the military, those that pointed out that Pakistani air systems had performed better than expected on the 27th and for a bit the PM and the NSA were convinced on using a massive Brahmos strike alone. However, this was not to last as it was thought the Pakistanis would escalate with their own cruise or ballistic systems in kind and drag in the United States and other powers in a nuclear bluff.
> 
> But as this was being considered - the hawks had already won over in both the military and cabinet. While the PAF & IAF played chicken over the LoC the Indian military was instructed to give a broad based shock and awe that went beyond the Kashmir region as such and would target Northern Pakistan.
> 
> If Pakistan had jammed Indian Radars, India would simply destroy Pakistani ones along with any air defense elements in the way and steamroll through. Those citing that this would lead to full fledged conflict were shot down with explanations of how this would stun the Pakistani establishment and government struggling with a nearly dead economy to simply seek de-escalation. Even if the Pakistanis retaliated, it was surmised that India would raise the nuclear gambit to force world powers to intervene.
> 
> The plan was to hit Pakistani military targets all across the LoC and any supporting FOBs and divisional HQs. To give international legitimacy to the massive attack, LeT targets in Muridke and Sheikupura along with a suspected camp in Mansehra would be selected to provide justification on the basis of terrorism - but also to strike fear in the Pakistani civilian population in Lahore with explosions around the city's periphery.
> 
> Pakistan had used 40 odd aircraft on the 27th and India would respond with nearly 90 attacking some 60 targets overall. M-777s and Bofors had been moved forward to start a massive bombardment across the LoC on Pakistani targets - while it was expected that the Pakistanis would respond the IAF would attack across the LoC at both designated and targets of opportunity.
> 
> The Brahmos option was repurposed - with a massive barrage planned to coincide with interdicting Indian aircraft and hitting multiple targets including key radar systems to blind the Pakistani Air Defense grid. Pakistani retaliation with SSMs was to be expected but by the time it got going world powers would intervene - and if they did strike India could absorb a few blows.
> 
> Inklings of movement and intelligence was trickling into Pakistan - but the general mood was that the Indians might just leave at heavy mortars and cross border violations in the spirit of de-escalation. Especially since it was thought that the Indians were becoming aware of what the Chinese were doing in their backyard up north.
> 
> But as the clock struck 1am on the morning of the 28th... things were to be very different.
> 
> The opening salvo was not delivered by an Indian military system, but rather by a mix of TTP and BLA insurgents assisted by a local criminal gang bought out for less than $20000. The target was PAF Mushaf whose guard post and perimeter was awakened by gunfire along with mortar rounds. @Mr.Meap
> View attachment 751984
> 
> 
> As the base was distracted to rush towards this threat the PAF radar picture seemed to show all quiet on the eastern front as the IAF seemed to have withdrawn its heavy CAPs as well. A EMB-145 Netra was seen in the area along with what was noticed as three il-78 airframes but that could be routine.
> 
> View attachment 751985
> 
> 
> Unknown to the Pakistanis, some 70 Indian aircraft were starting to get airborne - Mirage 2000s armed with Crystal Maze, Spice and LGBs to target the LeT Camps at Muridke, Shiekhupura and Mansehra. SEAD escorts of Su-30MKIs armed with KH-31s and Mirage-2000s with ARMATs.
> Jaguar IS flights were gearing up to hit preplanned targets of Ammo Dumps while Mirage 2000s would hit the HQs and FOBs of the Pakistan Army. Some 12 MKIs were focused on fighter sweeps, along with Mig-29UPGs and Mig-21 bisons. Finally, a large bison flight from Srinagar and Pathankot would conduct rocket strikes. Every pilot equipped with NVGs with targets pin pointed- they rolled across the tarmac.
> 
> View attachment 751986
> 
> 
> As the packages got airborne - diversionary caps started flying near the LoC with IAI Searcher and Heron UAVs marking targets for the LoC strikes.
> View attachment 751987
> 
> 
> Bofors and M-777s had their Pakistani forward post targets in range with the UAVs ensuring accuracy. But as the UAVs neared the LoC the PAF Combat Air Patrols were vectored towards them.
> 
> View attachment 751989
> 
> 
> View attachment 751990
> 
> 
> Around 1:15 AM local time - the barrage began against Pakistani targets - as a JF-17 Block-2 flying with a retrofit AESA radar was authorized to shoot down the Heron.
> View attachment 751992
> 
> 
> As the barrage began, so did the launches of the first Brahmos towards a MPDR-45. Meanwhile - a flight of 2 MKIs and 2 Bisons was vectored right across the LoC to engage the JF-17s and clear the way for the strike aircraft expected soon.
> 
> View attachment 751993
> 
> 
> As the alarms bells rang at AHQ and GHQ with the aide to the PM being called furiously on his cell to wake him up - the Brahmos strike crossed the border at Mach 2 heading for the radar situated near Lahore.
> View attachment 751994
> 
> View attachment 751995
> 
> 
> There was little warning to the personnel around the radar - all they heard was a small bang from what seemed to be nothing more than a street light - but then mere milliseconds later the radar and everything within a 100m radius was blown to smithereens. The loss of picture was immediately noticed at AHQ - but there was a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne to still give a clear idea and a misleading conclusion by a senior officer that it may be a follow up terror attack to Sargodha saw this key clue missed.
> 
> As the first Indian flight crossed the LoC - both SD-10s and R-77s flew across. The PAF was starting to scramble its alert fighters as 4 F-16s were rushed into the air while 2 more plus 4 JF-17s and 6 F-7PGs were readied from Alert 30 to launch.
> 
> View attachment 751997
> 
> 
> The SD-10 Struck home and a Mig-21 Bison was the first aircraft to go down in flames over Punch as the terrified civilians across both sides of the LoC - already fearful for their lives watched fireworks unfold.
> View attachment 751996
> 
> Meanwhile - this initial sweep continued to engage PAF fighters - but was soon faced with a AIM-120 Barrage from the very deadly F--16s from 11 and 9sqs of the PAF. But the intention, to divert the PAF north first worked.
> View attachment 751998
> 
> 
> As Aim-120s struck home and brought down 2 MKIs - the R-77 Barrage took its toll and the 9sq flight was no more.
> View attachment 751999
> 
> 
> More MKIs from the north now joined the foray as the PAF interceptors scrambled to defend their airspace. Knowing they were outranged - the MKIs flew hot and cold trying to break apart the 2 11sq aircraft - finally getting in range to launch their volley at them but not without losing 1 to a AIM-120
> View attachment 752000
> 
> 
> By this time, it was clear - this wasn't some small skirmish. As the IAF aircraft approached the border - Brahmos batteries unleashed their arsenal in full force.
> 
> View attachment 752001
> 
> 
> Missiles flew back and forth - Air to Air, Crystal Maze Cruise systems and Brahmos - scream towards their respective targets.
> 
> View attachment 752002
> 
> 
> What wasnt known to the IAF was an operational HQ-16 battery near Gujranwala - as the Indian aircraft crossed the border it let loose. Within a few minutes Mirages and Jaguars were jettisoning their loads trying to crane their necks looking for the incoming Sams. 2 went down immediately - MKIs launched KH-31s towards the HQ-16 while the Indian aircraft dropped to low level.
> 
> However, the Pakistanis had covered the most common approaches - and RBS-70 and Anza teams awaited guidance.
> 
> View attachment 752003




Could it be possible that decoy drones or drones that seem like a fighter jet be launched into the air when iaf attacks so the escort planes start shooting down those drones and wasting their missiles on those while PAF actually fighter jets shoot down the Indian fighter jets?


Also could it be possible we have a couple Fateh 1 or A-100 mlrs systems with gps guided rockets hidden near the border in sindh and punjab so if India attempts this those mlrs blow up Indian military installations near the border?

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## CrazyZ

Jf-17 block 3 said:


> Could it be possible that decoy drones or drones that seem like a fighter jet be launched into the air when iaf attacks so the escort planes start shooting down those drones and wasting their missiles on those while PAF actually fighter jets shoot down the Indian fighter jets?
> 
> 
> Also could it be possible we have a couple Fateh 1 or A-100 mlrs systems with gps guided rockets hidden near the border in sindh and punjab so if India attempts this those mlrs blow up Indian military installations near the border?


The Indians can do the same.


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## Reichsmarschall

Does anyone know what intended targets of 27th Feb Brahmos threat could have been?


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## CrazyZ

Reichsmarschall said:


> Does anyone know what intended targets of 27th Feb Brahmos threat could have been?


Could have been anything. Indians tend to overrate brahmos as some sort of super weapon. My border firebase/AD/fobs concept should be able to engage come across the border.

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## PakFactor

SQ8 said:


> Thank 20 years of western fiction and non-fiction painting it so. 1998 Peacemaker movie - a Pakistani nuclear scientist makes a bomb - 2008 Iron Man - A Pakistani terrorist.



REPRESENT!


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## White Lion

SQ8 said:


> What I mean is, what happens the next day. All the events you suggest can be incorporated but which of those should be included and how exactly on lets the 29th February
> 
> Agreed - but lets say for the sake of testing the systems out to the max - the escalation kept going. What happens next based on what you quoted? Who does what? If you tell me, I can try to simulate it.


To really spice up the ground reality we should consider that the attack on Balakot on the 27th Feb was considered an act of war against Pakistan as Balakot is Pakistan territory and not disputed in any UN Resolutions. Hence if Pakistan would have appropriately gone to the parliament over the war committee i.e Cabinet decision that this was a Declaration of War by India and the Parliament endorsed it by declaring war. 

USA would have been the first country to call for UN General Assembly Meeting to support of India and pressure India not to threat or escalate the situation where a heavy counterstrike or a missiles would be launched. In simpler words take the on slot of Pakistan Air Force and down play the loses. 

The reason for this would be to gain time and calm Pakistan down as USA new that only one Veto by China would have inevitably destroyed India completely. 

UN would be unable to effectively call upon a ceasefire with 15 days from the first counter strike by PAF. 
Moreover pressure on GOI though Indian media would be so high that Indian Armed Forces would have defied any orders (Mutiny, Martial Law and a bloody Military take over of the Government) could take place forcing the Indian Supreme Court in declaring a war on the 1st or 2nd March. 



White Lion said:


> 2) Turkey is completely missing which is really confusing as they were the only country to offer manpower during both 1965 and 1971 Wars between India and Pakistan. Moreover Turk Honor their friends who have blead for their independence and the capture of Istanbul after WW1. Something my Turkish friends would acknowledge.


Turkey being a member of UN Security Council would be active on the diplomatic front defending the counter offensive by Pakistan by stating the right of Self Defence. Simultaneously pressure EU, Russia, and OIC that UN needs to take action against India and also categorically support Pakistan with all the military requirements for a month long war. 



White Lion said:


> 1.) F-15 SA are the last thing that can be provided for support as USA would be protecting India their Strategic Partner. The Americans would never allow KSA to send aircraft to Pakistan unless KSA declares war against India.


USA still being in the dilemma of how to protect India would disallow F-15's along with UK disallowing EFT and Tornadoes. This would force KSA to support the OIC's decision which would inevitably end in a direct conflict between KSA and India. Once KSA has declared war then all the equipment can be used. Day after Day the pressure to join Pakistan. On 2nd March Saudia would have joined the war with India. This would have brought the Muslim Armies much closer



White Lion said:


> 3) Azerbaijan is also not present which is surprising as Turkey could find a loophole through them to supply any thing Pakistan wants and join the conflict covertly to fool USA and NATO.


Military personnel and hardware would be flown in.



White Lion said:


> 4) Tajikistan who relies on CPEC for trade is missing is also interesting as Russia would use them as a cover candidate to enter the war initially not to antagonize USA till USA enters the conflict directly.


Military personnel and hardware would be flown in.



White Lion said:


> 5) Russia enters the war from the start due to CPEC and their agreement with China to protect China in case of war agreement that states if China is attacked it would be considered an attack on Russia and vice versa.


The long night or the doomsday situation would be upon all of us be. 



White Lion said:


> 6) China would not wait but would enter the war from day one of the conflict. This is because China considers an attack on Islamabad would be considered as an attack on Beijing.


Supplies would start sooner but still valuable that my mother wants 
All sort of art would resume


White Lion said:


> 7) Italy, Ukraine and Belarus would enter the war along side Pakistan by selling EFT, Tanks and what ever Russia can supply Belarus can supply.


Monitory and third party support would do wonders. A constant supply of aircraft, parts and a never ending line would surface.



White Lion said:


> 8) We tend to forget Kosovo. Kosovo though does not have major arms industry of their own but they are the only Muslim Country in Europe and they can procure any thing from Europe and supply to Pakistan provided Payments are made in cash. Pakistan would go on an hyperdrive to procure as many weapons it can manage in the shortest possible time trough funding from Turkey and the Gulf States.


Europe the champion of Human Rights would be in the doldrums as they go further in search of new areas.



White Lion said:


> 9) There is no mention of Qatar and Kuwait who would fully support Pakistan from the very first minute of the war at least financially. This founding would be channeled trough Turkey mainly. Incase KSA enters the war then the Islamic Military Alliance would definately also declare war against India (except UAE).


Strike packages would be flown simultaneously reeking a confession 
The influx of material and hardware , would be too hot for the Indian.



White Lion said:


> 10) Iran is the only country that IMO would be the most troubled on as she would be in the dilemma to be or not to be a part of this war. The reason is they were and are the only ones who consider an attack on any Muslim state as an attack on them.



This is tough nut to crack but rest assure the Iranians could be a blessing rather that pain as they will remain in Syria


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## SQ8

White Lion said:


> To really spice up the ground reality we should consider that the attack on Balakot on the 27th Feb was considered an act of war against Pakistan as Balakot is Pakistan territory and not disputed in any UN Resolutions. Hence if Pakistan would have appropriately gone to the parliament over the war committee i.e Cabinet decision that this was a Declaration of War by India and the Parliament endorsed it by declaring war.
> 
> USA would have been the first country to call for UN General Assembly Meeting to support of India and pressure India not to threat or escalate the situation where a heavy counterstrike or a missiles would be launched. In simpler words take the on slot of Pakistan Air Force and down play the loses.
> 
> The reason for this would be to gain time and calm Pakistan down as USA new that only one Veto by China would have inevitably destroyed India completely.
> 
> UN would be unable to effectively call upon a ceasefire with 15 days from the first counter strike by PAF.
> Moreover pressure on GOI though Indian media would be so high that Indian Armed Forces would have defied any orders (Mutiny, Martial Law and a bloody Military take over of the Government) could take place forcing the Indian Supreme Court in declaring a war on the 1st or 2nd March.
> 
> 
> Turkey being a member of UN Security Council would be active on the diplomatic front defending the counter offensive by Pakistan by stating the right of Self Defence. Simultaneously pressure EU, Russia, and OIC that UN needs to take action against India and also categorically support Pakistan with all the military requirements for a month long war.
> 
> 
> USA still being in the dilemma of how to protect India would disallow F-15's along with UK disallowing EFT and Tornadoes. This would force KSA to support the OIC's decision which would inevitably end in a direct conflict between KSA and India. Once KSA has declared war then all the equipment can be used. Day after Day the pressure to join Pakistan. On 2nd March Saudia would have joined the war with India. This would have brought the Muslim Armies much closer
> 
> 
> Military personnel and hardware would be flown in.
> 
> 
> Military personnel and hardware would be flown in.
> 
> 
> The long night or the doomsday situation would be upon all of us be.
> 
> 
> Supplies would start sooner but still valuable that my mother wants
> All sort of art would resume
> 
> Monitory and third party support would do wonders. A constant supply of aircraft, parts and a never ending line would surface.
> 
> 
> Europe the champion of Human Rights would be in the doldrums as they go further in search of new areas.
> 
> 
> Strike packages would be flown simultaneously reeking a confession
> The influx of material and hardware , would be too hot for the Indian.
> 
> 
> 
> This is tough nut to crack but rest assure the Iranians could be a blessing rather that pain as they will remain in Syria


All well outlined and plausible strategic outcomes - but perhaps I should have clarified. Seeing as how I am posting a tactical view - what do you see happening on the tactical level. 
so for e.g. after the heavy Indian attack on the 28th - Pakistan retaliates within 40 minutes with a massive barrage of Shaheen -II and Babur systems armed with conventional warheads while simultaneously hitting the Indian Air force and key command and control nodes. This I can put into the sim if I get a guess of where to place what. Does that make sense?


Jf-17 block 3 said:


> Could it be possible that decoy drones or drones that seem like a fighter jet be launched into the air when iaf attacks so the escort planes start shooting down those drones and wasting their missiles on those while PAF actually fighter jets shoot down the Indian fighter jets?
> 
> 
> Also could it be possible we have a couple Fateh 1 or A-100 mlrs systems with gps guided rockets hidden near the border in sindh and punjab so if India attempts this those mlrs blow up Indian military installations near the border?


Ok - so lets put that into what happens later on 28th February - what is Pakistani retaliation to what you quoted?


CrazyZ said:


> Well if the scenario is a Indian aerial escalation after swift retort.....and these forward firebases/fob with air defense were present. I would say Pakistan would have to accept that these sites would be hit by manned AC, drones, loitering munitions, Brahmos, attack helicopters and artillery. These fobs would have to be designed with bunkers deep and strong enough to take the beating (losses will be inevitable). Air defense equipment will have to be expendable or even decoy (possible unmanned themselves). As long as causalities are within acceptable margins they could give the PAF and long range SAM forces enough breathing room to grind away at the IAF.
> 
> Best case would be a battle of Britain scenario where IAF losses would be too great and they call off the offensive. Worst case is that PAF and long range SAM forces fails to inflict enough losses on the IAF and IAF achieves air superiority.


Well - that sort of played out already. So what happens after this massive Indian retaliation for swift retort. Now what tactical scenario plays out?


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## Reichsmarschall

SQ8 said:


> Pakistan retaliates within 40 minutes with a massive barrage of Shaheen -II and Babur systems armed with conventional warheads while simultaneously hitting the Indian Air force and key command and control nodes.


Please share Indian causality count if possible.


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## White Lion

SQ8 said:


> All well outlined and plausible strategic outcomes - but perhaps I should have clarified. Seeing as how I am posting a tactical view - what do you see happening on the tactical level.
> so for e.g. after the heavy Indian attack on the 28th - Pakistan retaliates within 40 minutes with a massive barrage of Shaheen -II and Babur systems armed with conventional warheads while simultaneously hitting the Indian Air force and key command and control nodes. This I can put into the sim if I get a guess of where to place what. Does that make sense?


Could we do multiple options? Scope limitation Air War alone. 

Scenario 1
USA under pressure from UN General Assembly accepts Pakistan Right to Declare War in an in camera session. Pakistan conducts morning 9 am raid on 27th Feb shooting down of 2 Indian aircraft and one rescue heli shot in fog of war. The same raid also destroyed certain strategic targets at Srinagar Airbase but did not destroy the runways. 

At 1200 Indian Standard time India hastily retaliates with multiple formations along the international border and over sea. Primary target is to strike Sargodha and Masroor. Your choice on formation of the aggressors and defenders. 

The timing of the Indian raid takes the word leaders as a surprise as almost every one except for Israel were guaranteed by the Indian ambassador to the UN guaranteed that India would not conduct tit for tat response by PAF. However Israel was of the opinion that if India does not retaliate then the world leaders and citizens of India would consider the Indian Government as a sisi. 

Pakistani diplomates were actively updating strategic partners on the current situation. Turkey and KSA both called upon the emergency meeting of OIC where heads of state were to discuss on what steps are to be taken next. Turkey would supply weapons and diplomatic support where are OIC and their military alliance decided to join Pakistan and declare War on India. 

USA, UK, France and Russia are under a lot of pressure on the betrayal by India after the Indian Attack on Sargodha and Karachi hence authorizes all OIC member countries that they can use weapons made by these countries. However NATO has not authorized Turkey to help Pakistan directly but under the table Turkey has managed to secure engines for T-129 on war footing. Turkish F-16 aircraft can also be deployed or transferred to Pakistan. 

@SQ8 brother you can calculate what assets can be mobilized by OIC and Turkey and reasonable time. 48 hours could be a reasonable time. If you like you can also use these 48 hours for China and Russian reaction and their option of entering the war. 

However in my opinion if we are limited to air war alone then OIC is enough to fulfill and negate any Air superiority. Moreover Pakistan is not aware to what OIC and the world leaders would do so as war time purchases are concerned Pakistan has asked China for an additional 100 JF-17s and similar number of J-10s. 
IRAN is still monitoring the situation.


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## crankthatskunk

HRK said:


> This simulation is similar [modernise version] to a report Named: Under Secretary of Defense (USD-Policy) 1999 Summer Study Final Report ASIA 2025 (*click here*: Read New South Asia Order starting from *Page number-75*)









1- It should be a smack on the faces of all those Pakistani politicians and military personnel , who in the past and near past had worked, co-operated and enslaved by the Americans. They had been tools for a country, who wishes, plans and engineers the destruction of Pakistan. And wishes it to be broken in to pieces. 

2- Wishes and help India to become regional power. Despite the wishes, planning and help, look where is India heading recently!! 

Karma working. 

3- Another failed scenario about Afghanistan. USA is leaving in haste. India is scrambling to contact Taliban. What happened to the narrative that Taliban are the terrorists and Pakistan harbours terrorists!! 
Now Taliban are clear of the tag that India wants to talk to them!! 
Humiliation is in order for India, as I predicted few years ago, exact scenario playing out in Afghanistan. 

4- Naive Americans thinking that USA-India alliance would deter China. It may spur China to deal with India first. 
Recent days refusal of Pakistan to agree to USA airbases in Pakistan should be enough for the Yanks to realise, the tide has turned. In last couple of days both PM IK and Bajwa had meetings with Chinese Ambassador. The agenda is very very clear. 


Pakistan should take the gloves off, time is approaching to take Kashmir by force. 
Even IK has said recently, that if Pakistan have no other option it would take Kashmir by force. 
Pakistan should act, before India uses Israeli apartheid tactics to change the demographics in Kashmir. 

When I opened a thread and shared some information, "defence strategist" on this forum were as usual deriding it. In last couple of days it has become clear I was right, Indians are planning other moves to change the Status of Kashmir further, perhaps declaring two new "Indian states". One in the north as "Ladakh" and one in the south as "Jammu" leaving the name of Kashmir out completely. 

Pakistan is going to sit idly by and play "Peace Mantra"!!!!

I have no hope from Bajwa, the politician.


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## White Lion

Scenario 2
At 1200 Indian Standard time India hastily retaliates with multiple formations along the international border and over sea. Primary target is to strike Sargodha and Masroor. Your choice on formation of the aggressors and defenders. 
PAF is doing a cap with F-16 ADF, JF-17 and F-7PG. Attack on Sargodha is repeled with heavy losses to the Indian Air Force. Masroor has been hit hard by IAF inflicts heavy losses on ground to PAF aircraft. Many Air to Air kills are also inflicted on PAF. PAF was unable to attain areal deniability over Karachi.

@SQ8 brother you can calculate what assets can be mobilized by OIC and Turkey and reasonable time. 48 hours could be a reasonable time. If you like you can also use these 48 hours for China and Russian reaction and their option of entering the war. 

However in my opinion if we are limited to air war alone then OIC is enough to fulfill and negate any Air superiority.
A large contingent at least 350 - 400 aircraft is being arranged. 

Moreover Pakistan is not aware to what OIC and the world leaders would do so as war time purchases are concerned Pakistan has asked China for an additional 100 JF-17s and similar number of J-10s. 
Playing safe China refuses to provide JF-17 due to low production capabilities. J-10's are refused on two grounds i.e lack of experience of PAF pilots on J10s and possibility of China entering the war in the near future. 

Pakistan asks KSA to procure used EFT from Italy, Spain, Germany and Austria. 
IRAN is still monitoring the situation.


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## Sayfullah

SQ8 said:


> Ok - so lets put that into what happens later on 28th February - what is Pakistani retaliation to what you quoted?



Once the first couple indian planes get detected in Pakistani airspace while Pakistan is scrambling its fighter jets it also launches hundreds of decoy drones into the air. Indian strike package gets scared away by all the decoy drones thinking their paf fighter jets or they get too busy shooting down the numerous decoy drones thinking their fighter jets while paf jets shoot down the real indian jets.
Indian artillery pounds our positions in Kashmir and Gilgit but while that’s happening Pakistans hidden A-100 and Fateh 1 mlrs systems in Punjab and sindh get activated and launch barrages of gps guided rockets at Indian military installations near the border. Additionally we could have some Fateh 1 hidden in Gilgit and Northern Punjab at least 60 kms away from the border so Indian artillery can’t target it and Fateh 1 can launch its rockets at Indian military installations on loc and target Indian garrisons in places like Baramulla and, right away change it’s position or go back in hiding so iaf aircraft can’t target it. 
The hidden mlrs system can be hidden underground or in urban areas in a house.


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## SQ8

Ill take the weekend and put all the great input into something new.

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## CriticalThought

SQ8 said:


> @krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @Signalian @PanzerKiel @notorious_eagle @LeGenD @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa)
> 28th February 2019 - 0100 Hours
> 
> After the losses and smattering from the overwhelming PAF force on the 27th - all hell broke loose in Dehli. There was disbelief coupled with fury for most with the desire to teach Pakistan a terrible lesson. The few cautious voices encouraging reaching out to allies and friends to put pressure on Pakistan instead of all out attack or suggesting putting Balochi or Mohajir faces on TV as part of a wider campaign found themselves silenced or nearly attacked themselves by the more virulent members of the cabinet.
> 
> The Indian military brass in general however wanted nothing less than giving Pakistan a heavy blow that in their mind would resemble the shock and awe of the 2003 Gulf war. To them, their "one hand tied" approach with Pakistan over the last few days is what cost 6 aircraft and hundreds of men and critical material on the Loc. If it were up to this leadership and most members of the cabinet, Pakistan would have been hit in its critical nodes on the 26th along with terror leaders. There were cautious voices within the military, those that pointed out that Pakistani air systems had performed better than expected on the 27th and for a bit the PM and the NSA were convinced on using a massive Brahmos strike alone. However, this was not to last as it was thought the Pakistanis would escalate with their own cruise or ballistic systems in kind and drag in the United States and other powers in a nuclear bluff.
> 
> But as this was being considered - the hawks had already won over in both the military and cabinet. While the PAF & IAF played chicken over the LoC the Indian military was instructed to give a broad based shock and awe that went beyond the Kashmir region as such and would target Northern Pakistan.
> 
> If Pakistan had jammed Indian Radars, India would simply destroy Pakistani ones along with any air defense elements in the way and steamroll through. Those citing that this would lead to full fledged conflict were shot down with explanations of how this would stun the Pakistani establishment and government struggling with a nearly dead economy to simply seek de-escalation. Even if the Pakistanis retaliated, it was surmised that India would raise the nuclear gambit to force world powers to intervene.
> 
> The plan was to hit Pakistani military targets all across the LoC and any supporting FOBs and divisional HQs. To give international legitimacy to the massive attack, LeT targets in Muridke and Sheikupura along with a suspected camp in Mansehra would be selected to provide justification on the basis of terrorism - but also to strike fear in the Pakistani civilian population in Lahore with explosions around the city's periphery.
> 
> Pakistan had used 40 odd aircraft on the 27th and India would respond with nearly 90 attacking some 60 targets overall. M-777s and Bofors had been moved forward to start a massive bombardment across the LoC on Pakistani targets - while it was expected that the Pakistanis would respond the IAF would attack across the LoC at both designated and targets of opportunity.
> 
> The Brahmos option was repurposed - with a massive barrage planned to coincide with interdicting Indian aircraft and hitting multiple targets including key radar systems to blind the Pakistani Air Defense grid. Pakistani retaliation with SSMs was to be expected but by the time it got going world powers would intervene - and if they did strike India could absorb a few blows.
> 
> Inklings of movement and intelligence was trickling into Pakistan - but the general mood was that the Indians might just leave at heavy mortars and cross border violations in the spirit of de-escalation. Especially since it was thought that the Indians were becoming aware of what the Chinese were doing in their backyard up north.
> 
> But as the clock struck 1am on the morning of the 28th... things were to be very different.
> 
> The opening salvo was not delivered by an Indian military system, but rather by a mix of TTP and BLA insurgents assisted by a local criminal gang bought out for less than $20000. The target was PAF Mushaf whose guard post and perimeter was awakened by gunfire along with mortar rounds. @Mr.Meap
> View attachment 751984
> 
> 
> As the base was distracted to rush towards this threat the PAF radar picture seemed to show all quiet on the eastern front as the IAF seemed to have withdrawn its heavy CAPs as well. A EMB-145 Netra was seen in the area along with what was noticed as three il-78 airframes but that could be routine.
> 
> View attachment 751985
> 
> 
> Unknown to the Pakistanis, some 70 Indian aircraft were starting to get airborne - Mirage 2000s armed with Crystal Maze, Spice and LGBs to target the LeT Camps at Muridke, Shiekhupura and Mansehra. SEAD escorts of Su-30MKIs armed with KH-31s and Mirage-2000s with ARMATs.
> Jaguar IS flights were gearing up to hit preplanned targets of Ammo Dumps while Mirage 2000s would hit the HQs and FOBs of the Pakistan Army. Some 12 MKIs were focused on fighter sweeps, along with Mig-29UPGs and Mig-21 bisons. Finally, a large bison flight from Srinagar and Pathankot would conduct rocket strikes. Every pilot equipped with NVGs with targets pin pointed- they rolled across the tarmac.
> 
> View attachment 751986
> 
> 
> As the packages got airborne - diversionary caps started flying near the LoC with IAI Searcher and Heron UAVs marking targets for the LoC strikes.
> View attachment 751987
> 
> 
> Bofors and M-777s had their Pakistani forward post targets in range with the UAVs ensuring accuracy. But as the UAVs neared the LoC the PAF Combat Air Patrols were vectored towards them.
> 
> View attachment 751989
> 
> 
> View attachment 751990
> 
> 
> Around 1:15 AM local time - the barrage began against Pakistani targets - as a JF-17 Block-2 flying with a retrofit AESA radar was authorized to shoot down the Heron.
> View attachment 751992
> 
> 
> As the barrage began, so did the launches of the first Brahmos towards a MPDR-45. Meanwhile - a flight of 2 MKIs and 2 Bisons was vectored right across the LoC to engage the JF-17s and clear the way for the strike aircraft expected soon.
> 
> View attachment 751993
> 
> 
> As the alarms bells rang at AHQ and GHQ with the aide to the PM being called furiously on his cell to wake him up - the Brahmos strike crossed the border at Mach 2 heading for the radar situated near Lahore.
> View attachment 751994
> 
> View attachment 751995
> 
> 
> There was little warning to the personnel around the radar - all they heard was a small bang from what seemed to be nothing more than a street light - but then mere milliseconds later the radar and everything within a 100m radius was blown to smithereens. The loss of picture was immediately noticed at AHQ - but there was a Saab 2000 Erieye airborne to still give a clear idea and a misleading conclusion by a senior officer that it may be a follow up terror attack to Sargodha saw this key clue missed.
> 
> As the first Indian flight crossed the LoC - both SD-10s and R-77s flew across. The PAF was starting to scramble its alert fighters as 4 F-16s were rushed into the air while 2 more plus 4 JF-17s and 6 F-7PGs were readied from Alert 30 to launch.
> 
> View attachment 751997
> 
> 
> The SD-10 Struck home and a Mig-21 Bison was the first aircraft to go down in flames over Punch as the terrified civilians across both sides of the LoC - already fearful for their lives watched fireworks unfold.
> View attachment 751996
> 
> Meanwhile - this initial sweep continued to engage PAF fighters - but was soon faced with a AIM-120 Barrage from the very deadly F--16s from 11 and 9sqs of the PAF. But the intention, to divert the PAF north first worked.
> View attachment 751998
> 
> 
> As Aim-120s struck home and brought down 2 MKIs - the R-77 Barrage took its toll and the 9sq flight was no more.
> View attachment 751999
> 
> 
> More MKIs from the north now joined the foray as the PAF interceptors scrambled to defend their airspace. Knowing they were outranged - the MKIs flew hot and cold trying to break apart the 2 11sq aircraft - finally getting in range to launch their volley at them but not without losing 1 to a AIM-120
> View attachment 752000
> 
> 
> By this time, it was clear - this wasn't some small skirmish. As the IAF aircraft approached the border - Brahmos batteries unleashed their arsenal in full force.
> 
> View attachment 752001
> 
> 
> Missiles flew back and forth - Air to Air, Crystal Maze Cruise systems and Brahmos - scream towards their respective targets.
> 
> View attachment 752002
> 
> 
> What wasnt known to the IAF was an operational HQ-16 battery near Gujranwala - as the Indian aircraft crossed the border it let loose. Within a few minutes Mirages and Jaguars were jettisoning their loads trying to crane their necks looking for the incoming Sams. 2 went down immediately - MKIs launched KH-31s towards the HQ-16 while the Indian aircraft dropped to low level.
> 
> However, the Pakistanis had covered the most common approaches - and RBS-70 and Anza teams awaited guidance.
> 
> View attachment 752003



Because SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.


Post SR, PAF imposed a no-fly zone on IAF. Given this, it is impossible for any drones or AEWACS to be flying near the border. I don't recall the exact length of this NFZ.
Given the extremely high level of alert, it is again fiction that a radar site going down would go unnoticed.
PAF has always prepared for an asymmetrical war. It would not have been caught offguard given IAF practiced and boasted about bringing in fighters from all over India. What these preparations are, I don't know. But we could simulate them by giving a very high impact to PAF's EW component. Also, why is there only 1 Saab in the air, when PAF has multiple AEWACs and EW platforms. Also, the AEWACs should be treated as an EW asset that disrupts enemy formations.
If India really wanted to escalate, it would make approaches from both north and south in the Arabian sea with Migs flying in from their aircraft carrier. This should be included. That would truly spread PAF thin and it would need to pick and choose which battles to fight.
Also, given the main offensive weapon was F-16 Block 52s, the Indians would plan for a decapitation strike against Shahbaz.
On 28 Feb, 2020, Pakistan's only defence against a Brahmos saturation strike was nuclear weapons. The only reason why India would move ahead would be a weak leadership that is too cowardly to deploy the nukes. The Indians might be boastful, but they are certainly not stupid. Nuclear strikes on Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata would mean all major IT companies taking out their business from India. It also means a massive disruption in global business. This is something that the bootlickers on both sides: Bajwa, Khan, and the biggest c*nt in the world Modi, all know very well. Both countries treat America as 'My Baap' and would never do anything to hurt American interests. And certainly not 'Trump Tower' when Trump was actually president.

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## SQ8

CriticalThought said:


> Because SR occurred in the past, we have some useful insights that SHOULD be included in any simulation.
> 
> 
> Post SR, PAF imposed a no-fly zone on IAF. Given this, it is impossible for any drones or AEWACS to be flying near the border. I don't recall the exact length of this NFZ.
> Given the extremely high level of alert, it is again fiction that a radar site going down would go unnoticed.
> PAF has always prepared for an asymmetrical war. It would not have been caught offguard given IAF practiced and boasted about bringing in fighters from all over India. What these preparations are, I don't know. But we could simulate them by giving a very high impact to PAF's EW component. Also, why is there only 1 Saab in the air, when PAF has multiple AEWACs and EW platforms. Also, the AEWACs should be treated as an EW asset that disrupts enemy formations.
> If India really wanted to escalate, it would make approaches from both north and south in the Arabian sea with Migs flying in from their aircraft carrier. This should be included. That would truly spread PAF thin and it would need to pick and choose which battles to fight.
> Also, given the main offensive weapon was F-16 Block 52s, the Indians would plan for a decapitation strike against Shahbaz.
> On 28 Feb, 2020, Pakistan's only defence against a Brahmos saturation strike was nuclear weapons. The only reason why India would move ahead would be a weak leadership that is too cowardly to deploy the nukes. The Indians might be boastful, but they are certainly not stupid. Nuclear strikes on Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata would mean all major IT companies taking out their business from India. It also means a massive disruption in global business. This is something that the bootlickers on both sides: Bajwa, Khan, and the biggest c*nt in the world Modi, all know very well. Both countries treat America as 'My Baap' and would never do anything to hurt American interests. And certainly not 'Trump Tower' when Trump was actually president.


1. Agreed - but I would be surprised if the NFZ would be 50-100NM into India

2. I'll reiterate - I am forcing "stupid decisions and severe human error". for e.g in 71, as @PanzerKiel , 4 squadrons for the most part sat out the war, certain PAF officers actively sabotaged offensive suggestions with strike recalled at the last minute.

3. The assumption is that the focus is all on the northern sector - PAF may have been expecting a strike on its airbases in the north or front line targets only

4. 28th Feb 2019 (It has been over 2.4 years now! It is difficult to predict politics - which is why "2" applies - we are here to check systems and tactics , less concerned about painting the actual caricatures of leaders.

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## SQ8

@krash @PDF @The Eagle @Jungibaaz @PanzerKiel @JamD @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @White Lion @Mr.Meap @Jf-17 block 3 @CrazyZ
*28th February 2019- 4:00AM*

As the tail end of the Indian strikes retreated - and additional PAF interceptors were airborne; the Pakistani National Security Council was finally gathered in person in a quickly secured location. A key minister who went AWOL wasnt noticed, his input generally seen as either pessimistic or nearly irrelevant.
Consternation was through the roof, the NSA had predicted an India response but it wasnt expected at this level nor were internal threats expected to cause such issues. Why were there delays in getting key intelligence of Brahmos movements? The Indian response time was faster than expected - there were no dithering or delays.

As the accusations and counter accusations flew - the PM who was already in a form of shell shock and mostly nodding his head lost in thought was interrupted by an irate VCAS and Intel chief - "Sir, we need to strike back before the Indians lock down their airspace again" - no response.. "Sir" - The COAS without his usual baritone start " Sir, my recommendation is to do a limited strike back at Indian targets and then get the Americans involved - I have sent the message to CENTCOM already" - This seemed to shake the PM from his trance as the NSA questioned the COAS "Why would you do that? we have options to activate now and this would compromise them!" - The COAS, not used to being questioned this harshly even by the prime minister went silent for a moment as the PM finally spoke "Please - what are the options?"

*28th February - 5:00AM*
Indian positions along the LoC were still firing - heavy mortars with the heavy artillery going silent for a while as the Pakistan Army moved up its assets to start hitting back. Bakhtar Shikan teams , recoilless rifles were the first line along with Howitzers opening up from the rear. It was time for Indian troops to hear the steel rain.







But from the greenery near Jhelum a A-100 MBRL emerged - its target were the Indian artillery positions and a Div FOB.





Another A-100 quietly emerged near Narowal from an embankment - but it wasn't just aiming for the LoC, Pathankot AB was just at the edge of its striking range, but more importantly - the Indians had a depot there with more than a quarter of a mechanized division parked there. The MLRSs would fire a mix of Anti-Armor and Anti-Personnel mines. Pathankot had its HAS, but that did not mean taxiways and barracks all around could not be walking minefields.

But the Pakistani response wasnt done here - the message to be delivered was clear to India. This is total war from this point onwards and the ladder is very steep. If India does not stop from what this will bring, then every weapon type will be on the table and the subcontinent a desolate wasteland in most places where life once thrived.

Part of this plan to demonstrate reach emerged near a bunch of inconspicuous warehouses close to PAF Bholari , right where the N-5 motorway crosses over Karachi Canal. 2 Shaheen-IIA TEL's emerged - capable of targeting all of mainland India





Their target was less relevant to the current hot zone and more as a symbolic one: Pulgaon Central Ammunition Depot was still the largest ammunition depot in the region, having gained notoriety after a string of accidents recently - the Indian army was looking to close it down and spread the share to more modern facilities. But as the Shaheen-IIA's TEL erected the missiles the current calm at Pulgaon was soon to be shattered.





Further north, near the Changa Manga national forest and at the crossing of Changa Manga Chumian road two more shelters that from the top were camouflaged and covered with Foliage opened up with Shaheen-1 systems trundling out - their target was Bakshi ka Talab Airbase with its Su-30MKIs parked in open air shelters. The IAF had decided that these systems were simply too out of reach of the Pakistan air force and could safely keep them out here.





Finally, near Gujrawala and Sargodha - Babur systems rolled out, their targets were Indian radar installations to give three times the shock to the ADGE that Pakistan received and SAM systems near Halwara and Ambala to soften them up for strikes.






Indian CAPs were being replaced when the first inkling on their side came as two firefinding radars suddenly gave alerts and the scopes on the nearest AD radars saw the clutter of MBRL launches guided by a quietly loitering UAV.






As the A-100 rockets neared the Pathankot area, The Hatf launchers near Gujranwala opened up and the Pakistani ripose was in full swing.

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## SQ8

As this was happening , a F-16 CAP engaged Indian aircraft from the Pakistani side of the border as Muezzins below prepared to give their call to prayer.





2 MKIs of 221 sq who had just come into replace the previous CAP did their best to be Amraam Dodgers, but the AIM-120C isn't forgiving. Meanwhile, Babur missiles whizzed past the border near Narowal.





Around the same time, a Shaheen-1A following a very flat trajectory was about to smack into an Indian Radar installation close to the border.





Some 15 minutes before this, the next Phase of the Pakistani riposte was put into full swing. JF-17s from Skardu would hit the Jammu & Kashmir Light rifles HQ while composite flights of Mirages and F-16s would strike Ambala and Halwara. Escorted by JF-17s on SEAD tasks.





To the Indians, it was clear what was happening and their leadership had just learnt to smile after a day when those were interrupted by panicked Air Defense and intelligence warnings. Pakistani ballistic missiles were suspected to be moving and aircraft were spotted in the air. Was it a limited nuclear strike to cripple Indian decision making following by air raids at Indian air bases? Was it a full blown nuclear strike? was it conventional?




As the Indian PM stammered amid the multiple voices with their NSA sweating, he tried to reach for the hotline but a Swamy screamed No and suggested full retaliation. He was opposed by the chiefs for the first time saying they don't have information but suggesting bringing Indian Nuclear systems to full readiness. The Prime minister and his political advisors only wanted to win the election to rule India for another 5 years and maybe ask for a special third term, but it seemed their gamble would leave them nothing but gamma radiation to try and get votes from. As these thoughts flew into his head - the IAF Chief screamed into the phone "What do you mean our picture is half gone? Even the Elta?"




Elsewhere, the Shaheen-IIA RVs hit Bakshi ka Talab and the Pulgaon Ammo depot. The large shelter collapsed under the 1000 pound kinetic warhead and knocking out 5 MKIs underneath it.

At Pulgaon, explosions after explosions rocked the nearby civilian population as the 10m CEP for IRBM was more than enough to cause piles of missile and AAA ammunition to cook off.



The JF-17s from Skardu flew NoE over the harsh karokaram terrain and emerged right behind any Indian Air Defense zones - their REKs pummeling into barracks, offices and radio communication centers of the JAK HQ, where a certain visiting Indian Lieutenant General, A major general and CO of two FoBs along with their ADCs were not to emerge from the camouflaged building with the red and white paths.

As the JF-17s turned back however, two 51sq Bisons took chase with R-77s which made their mark as the JF-17s slammed into the mountains in flames.





Down south, PAF fighter sweeps and escorts for the Halwara and Ambala strikes were directed to Indian interceptors by a Saab-2000 flight and a ZDK providing backup. A Mig-21 had barely rotated off the runway from Suratgarh when the AMRAAM struck him. However, him and his wingman did manage to get 4 R-77s off the rail which found their mark and a F-16 was blown to bits.






The Vipers continued to engage, plowing through defending MKIs using AMRAAMS with no losses - up north, a F-16 flight chased a Phalcon and a Il-78 down - tit for tat but leaving it with barely enough fumes to recover at Lahore.









The Halwara and Ambala strike faced SAMs further into India, its SEAD escort having gone Winchester giving it a door in and the Falcon 20 EW escort pulling back. 2 further mirages were lost but the H-4 strikes went through. It was later surmised that a Raad CM strike might have prevented the losses but the engineers were unable to load targeting data in time.

As the First H-4 struck the known pilot shelters and ammo dumps at Ambala, along with striking open revetments , F-16 Block-52s released GBU-24s into the door entrances of main hangers. Halwara also saw H-4s and JDAMs - blowing up runway intersections, and knocking the control tower out.





Just as these aircraft turned around, the phone rang in the Pakistani PM's office - it was the American secretary of state - he was put on hold as the PM was currently talking to a certain Saudi Crown prince and had to call back a Turkish president. Meanwhile, in the Indian PM's office a voice emphasized on the other side "Don't worry about Jaina!, we will take care of them and I will negotiate with Pakistan"


*Tally:
INDIAN LOSSES:*
-------------------------------
6x 130mm M-46 Catapult Self-Propelled Howitzer [Cargo] A-100, Pakistan Howitzer
6x 40mm/70 Single Bofors [Flycatcher Mk1 FCR] [Cargo]
1x A-50E/I Mainstay - AIM-120 from F-16
18x Ajeya Main Battle Tank [Cargo]
2x Ammo Shelter - Shaheen-IIA
8x BMP-2 Sarath [AT-5 Spandrel A] IFV [Cargo]
11x Building (Barracks) A-100, Babur, JF-17
2x Building (Very Large Leadership Compound) - REK & Babur
10x Building (Watch Tower) - Pakistani Mortars and Bakhtar Shikan teams
1x Il-78MKI Midas - AIM-120 from F-16
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] -- SD-10 , AIM-120
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A -- SD-10
2x Mirage 2000H-5 - AIM-120 from F-16
1x Radar (Master-T) - Babur
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo] - MAR-1, LD-10
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo] - A-100
2x Searcher II UAV - PL-9, SD-10
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16, SD-10
2x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo] - Shaheen-1A
4x Vehicle (Flycatcher Mk1) [Cargo] - Babur
2x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo] -Babur
1x ELTA M/2080 - Shaheen-1A

*Pakistan losses:*
1x Burraq [CH-3 Derivative] UAV - Su-30MKI
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU - Mig-21 Bison
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU - Mirage 2000
2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2 - Mig-21 Bison
1x Mirage 5DR - - Akash Sam
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III] - Barak-8 Sam
1x Mirage IIIO(F/A) [ROSE I]- Barak-8 Sam

*End note: *The Bison R-77 Combo is more effective at close and launching than Su-30MKis loaded with 6xR-77s

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## Reichsmarschall

command military simulation - YouTube 


Command: Modern Operations - Kashmir Fire Bombing India - Part 2 - YouTube


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## Akatosh

SQ8 said:


> As this was happening , a F-16 CAP engaged Indian aircraft from the Pakistani side of the border as Muezzins below prepared to give their call to prayer.
> View attachment 752931
> 
> 
> 2 MKIs of 221 sq who had just come into replace the previous CAP did their best to be Amraam Dodgers, but the AIM-120C isn't forgiving. Meanwhile, Babur missiles whizzed past the border near Narowal.
> View attachment 752932
> 
> 
> Around the same time, a Shaheen-1A following a very flat trajectory was about to smack into an Indian Radar installation close to the border.
> View attachment 752933
> 
> 
> Some 15 minutes before this, the next Phase of the Pakistani riposte was put into full swing. JF-17s from Skardu would hit the Jammu & Kashmir Light rifles HQ while composite flights of Mirages and F-16s would strike Ambala and Halwara. Escorted by JF-17s on SEAD tasks.
> View attachment 752934
> 
> 
> To the Indians, it was clear what was happening and their leadership had just learnt to smile after a day when those were interrupted by panicked Air Defense and intelligence warnings. Pakistani ballistic missiles were suspected to be moving and aircraft were spotted in the air. Was it a limited nuclear strike to cripple Indian decision making following by air raids at Indian air bases? Was it a full blown nuclear strike? was it conventional?
> View attachment 752937
> 
> As the Indian PM stammered amid the multiple voices with their NSA sweating, he tried to reach for the hotline but a Swamy screamed No and suggested full retaliation. He was opposed by the chiefs for the first time saying they don't have information but suggesting bringing Indian Nuclear systems to full readiness. The Prime minister and his political advisors only wanted to win the election to rule India for another 5 years and maybe ask for a special third term, but it seemed their gamble would leave them nothing but gamma radiation to try and get votes from. As these thoughts flew into his head - the IAF Chief screamed into the phone "What do you mean our picture is half gone? Even the Elta?"
> View attachment 752938
> 
> Elsewhere, the Shaheen-IIA RVs hit Bakshi ka Talab and the Pulgaon Ammo depot. The large shelter collapsed under the 1000 pound kinetic warhead and knocking out 5 MKIs underneath it.
> 
> At Pulgaon, explosions after explosions rocked the nearby civilian population as the 10m CEP for IRBM was more than enough to cause piles of missile and AAA ammunition to cook off.
> 
> 
> 
> The JF-17s from Skardu flew NoE over the harsh karokaram terrain and emerged right behind any Indian Air Defense zones - their REKs pummeling into barracks, offices and radio communication centers of the JAK HQ, where a certain visiting Indian Lieutenant General, A major general and CO of two FoBs along with their ADCs were not to emerge from the camouflaged building with the red and white paths.
> 
> As the JF-17s turned back however, two 51sq Bisons took chase with R-77s which made their mark as the JF-17s slammed into the mountains in flames.
> View attachment 752939
> 
> 
> Down south, PAF fighter sweeps and escorts for the Halwara and Ambala strikes were directed to Indian interceptors by a Saab-2000 flight and a ZDK providing backup. A Mig-21 had barely rotated off the runway from Suratgarh when the AMRAAM struck him. However, him and his wingman did manage to get 4 R-77s off the rail which found their mark and a F-16 was blown to bits.
> 
> View attachment 752940
> 
> 
> The Vipers continued to engage, plowing through defending MKIs using AMRAAMS with no losses - up north, a F-16 flight chased a Phalcon and a Il-78 down - tit for tat but leaving it with barely enough fumes to recover at Lahore.
> View attachment 752941
> View attachment 752942
> 
> 
> 
> The Halwara and Ambala strike faced SAMs further into India, its SEAD escort having gone Winchester giving it a door in and the Falcon 20 EW escort pulling back. 2 further mirages were lost but the H-4 strikes went through. It was later surmised that a Raad CM strike might have prevented the losses but the engineers were unable to load targeting data in time.
> 
> As the First H-4 struck the known pilot shelters and ammo dumps at Ambala, along with striking open revetments , F-16 Block-52s released GBU-24s into the door entrances of main hangers. Halwara also saw H-4s and JDAMs - blowing up runway intersections, and knocking the control tower out.
> View attachment 752946
> 
> 
> Just as these aircraft turned around, the phone rang in the Pakistani PM's office - it was the American secretary of state - he was put on hold as the PM was currently talking to a certain Saudi Crown prince and had to call back a Turkish president. Meanwhile, in the Indian PM's office a voice emphasized on the other side "Don't worry about Jaina!, we will take care of them and I will negotiate with Pakistan"
> 
> 
> *Tally:
> INDIAN LOSSES:*
> -------------------------------
> 6x 130mm M-46 Catapult Self-Propelled Howitzer [Cargo] A-100, Pakistan Howitzer
> 6x 40mm/70 Single Bofors [Flycatcher Mk1 FCR] [Cargo]
> 1x A-50E/I Mainstay - AIM-120 from F-16
> 18x Ajeya Main Battle Tank [Cargo]
> 2x Ammo Shelter - Shaheen-IIA
> 8x BMP-2 Sarath [AT-5 Spandrel A] IFV [Cargo]
> 11x Building (Barracks) A-100, Babur, JF-17
> 2x Building (Very Large Leadership Compound) - REK & Babur
> 10x Building (Watch Tower) - Pakistani Mortars and Bakhtar Shikan teams
> 1x Il-78MKI Midas - AIM-120 from F-16
> 3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] -- SD-10 , AIM-120
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A -- SD-10
> 2x Mirage 2000H-5 - AIM-120 from F-16
> 1x Radar (Master-T) - Babur
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo] - MAR-1, LD-10
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo] - A-100
> 2x Searcher II UAV - PL-9, SD-10
> 2x Su-30MKI Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H - AIM-120 from F-16, SD-10
> 2x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo] - Shaheen-1A
> 4x Vehicle (Flycatcher Mk1) [Cargo] - Babur
> 2x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo] -Babur
> 1x ELTA M/2080 - Shaheen-1A
> 
> *Pakistan losses:*
> 1x Burraq [CH-3 Derivative] UAV - Su-30MKI
> 1x F-16AM Falcon MLU - Mig-21 Bison
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU - Mirage 2000
> 2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2 - Mig-21 Bison
> 1x Mirage 5DR - - Akash Sam
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III] - Barak-8 Sam
> 1x Mirage IIIO(F/A) [ROSE I]- Barak-8 Sam
> 
> *End note: *The Bison R-77 Combo is more effective at close and launching than Su-30MKis loaded with 6xR-77s


Malfunctioning sim as it thinks Pakistan will use Ballistic missiles and cruise missile but India will not use any, especially when India has a larger stock of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles than Pakistan.
Also Falcon DA-20 ia completely obsolete now has India has now introduced BNET SDR on entire fleet.


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## Jungibaaz

Akatosh said:


> Malfunctioning sim as it thinks Pakistan will use Ballistic missiles and cruise missile but India will not use any, especially when India has a larger stock of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles than Pakistan.
> Also Falcon DA-20 ia completely obsolete now has India has now introduced BNET SDR on entire fleet.



You need to go back and read each scenario in the thread properly. And on your last point... lol

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## nahtanbob

SQ8 said:


> 2. I'll reiterate - I am forcing "stupid decisions and severe human error". for e.g in 71, as @PanzerKiel , 4 squadrons for the most part sat out the war, certain PAF officers actively sabotaged offensive suggestions with strike recalled at the last minute.



Why fight a war that has been lost ? You might preserve your precious equipment and men for another day.


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## SQ8

nahtanbob said:


> Why fight a war that has been lost ? You might preserve your precious equipment and men for another day.


Please read the first line in what you quoted

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## Sine Nomine

@SQ8 Sir i would be much obliged if you would take some precious time of yours and would run simulation by adding HQ-9P from our side and taking out terror groups from Indian side.
I hope this is possible.
Thanks in advance.


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## Leviza

What a garbage 

even a child of 15 years old can come up better scenarios with simple interest in arm forces

Pakistan will not stay silent to escalate the situation out of control in first week

Pakistan will neutralise all advancing indian army assets

the writer have no idea of history
GB is going to be offensive against indians just like good old days and they are very patriotic people 
PTM is ex fata area minority not GB 

Pakistan will go offensive defensive if you know what I mean and utilise full spectrum will surprise indians
They will capture larger part of IOK and Punjab 

The writer failed to elaborate on indian fault lines but wrongly used minority Pakistan fault line 

Khalistan government will popup straight away in indian Punjab and Eastern states will claim independence

china involvement only going to put pressure on already conflicting border situations

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## SQ8

Sine Nomine said:


> @SQ8 Sir i would be much obliged if you would take some precious time of yours and would run simulation by adding HQ-9P from our side and taking out terror groups from Indian side.
> I hope this is possible.
> Thanks in advance.


I did something different.
What if Pakistan had HQ-9P on the 26th and found out about the Balakot strike event so went weapons hot?

Assuming the northern side and the HQ-9P replacing the Sihala HQ-2 site. This is the *engagement range for the system* based on HQ-9B specs.





Now the Indian strike would be tracked intermittently by both standalone and HQ-9 search radars as they crossed behind peaks heading towards Balakot






If the strike was successful and the PAF aircraft were approaching the primary target - a clear ROE would allow the HQ-9P to engage and kill even the diversionary missions by the IAF and bringing down entire flights of MKIs and M2Ks.









And even as PAF interceptors neared, the Balakot strike group could all be engaged as they returned since the other option for them would have to fly into Chinese airspace to get away. 






One by One - They would all be taken down. 














*NOW*

What would happen on the 27th if the IAF had the S-400?

This the coverage for the S-400 if it would replace a Sa-3 Goa site at Adampur







This would allow it to engage the *ENTIRE *PAF strike group including the F-16 fighter sweep at will. 






The F-16 flight would still manage shots at the MKIs and M2ks to bring them down but would also be swatted like flies. 






Even the Mirage flights returning and the JF-17 strike group will get mauled. 







So , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries.

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## Signalian

Has SSW been thrown in the mix yet ? If not, then an important element of PAF's offensive arm on the ground is missing.


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## kursed

SQ8 said:


> , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries. [/SIZE]



You have then to take into account PAF’s two new assets; CM-401 and REK-3. We would have targeted S-400 if it’d painted our aircrafts. And Mirages wouldn’t have depended on H4.

S-400 from the date of its inclusion into Indian ORBAT, would be at the top of PAF's target list. It would have been neutralized by all means available, if it was seen as a threat on Feb 2019.


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## SQ8

Signalian said:


> Has SSW been thrown in the mix yet ? If not, then an important element of PAF's offensive arm on the ground is missing.


It was in an earlier scenario - what is interesting is that the computer activity detects and targets the H-4 but real life is different.


kursed said:


> You have then to take into account PAF’s two new assets; CM-401 and REK-3. We would have targeted S-400 if it’d painted our aircrafts. And Mirages wouldn’t have depended on H4.
> 
> S-400 from the date of its inclusion into Indian ORBAT, would be at the top of PAF's target list. It would have been neutralized by all means available, if it was seen as a threat on Feb 2019.


Absolutely! The entire plan would have been very different but the general danger posed by LRSAMs to “normal” operations is very palpable.

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## Maarkhoor

Bull shit .... @SQ8


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## Jungibaaz

Nice update, it’s quite evident from your simulation how difficult to achieve these strikes would have been had S-400 and HQ-9P been deployed. I think back then in their absence we concluded that because of initiative advantage and fog of war / RoE restrictions, the defender would always have odds stacked against them if the other side planned properly. I wonder to what extent that dynamic has changed now with this significant challenge introduced, the defender should surely have an easier go of it now.


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## SQ8

Jungibaaz said:


> Nice update, it’s quite evident from your simulation how difficult to achieve these strikes would have been had S-400 and HQ-9P been deployed. I think back then in their absence we concluded that because of initiative advantage and fog of war / RoE restrictions, the defender would always have odds stacked against them if the other side planned properly. I wonder to what extent that dynamic has changed now with this significant challenge introduced, the defender should surely have an easier go of it now.


I would think that the 26th strike might still have gone through but then the 27th would have had to be something very different in some respects. Perhaps the mirages would need to do some AAR or hot refuel from a FOB. The vipers would also follow a different profile with more equipped with the AIDEWS pods along with perhaps the block-52s being brought in.
It would still be achievable since the HQ-9 would provide the cover against interception by the IAF as well so the escort/sweep could focus on low level.

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## JamD

kursed said:


> You have then to take into account PAF’s two new assets; *CM-401* and REK-3...


Is that a typo and you really meant CM400AKG? Or is this news?


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## kursed

JamD said:


> Is that a typo and you really meant CM400AKG? Or is this news?


Apologies, I was typing from my cell. I meant CM400AKG.

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## SQ8

Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.

The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).

So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.

The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.

The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.







The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.





Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?

*BECAUSE *- getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.

Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.






Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(_does the Hq-9 loft??_) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.

Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(_which in this case was 9000ft_) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.






So, takeaways.

Unless the S-400 is placed closer(_putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks_) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.

The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".

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## Bilal.

SQ8 said:


> Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.
> 
> The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).
> 
> So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.
> 
> The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.
> 
> The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.
> View attachment 796456
> 
> 
> 
> The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.
> View attachment 796457
> 
> 
> Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
> This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
> It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?
> 
> *BECAUSE *- getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.
> 
> Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.
> 
> View attachment 796458
> 
> 
> Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(_does the Hq-9 loft??_) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.
> 
> Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(_which in this case was 9000ft_) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.
> View attachment 796459
> 
> 
> 
> So, takeaways.
> 
> Unless the S-400 is placed closer(_putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks_) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.
> 
> The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".


Can we add layering to the SAMs on both sides. Would it matter given the performance of HQ9 and S400?

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## Sine Nomine

SQ8 said:


> I did something different.
> What if Pakistan had HQ-9P on the 26th and found out about the Balakot strike event so went weapons hot?
> 
> Assuming the northern side and the HQ-9P replacing the Sihala HQ-2 site. This is the *engagement range for the system* based on HQ-9B specs.
> View attachment 796341
> 
> 
> Now the Indian strike would be tracked intermittently by both standalone and HQ-9 search radars as they crossed behind peaks heading towards Balakot
> View attachment 796342
> 
> 
> 
> If the strike was successful and the PAF aircraft were approaching the primary target - a clear ROE would allow the HQ-9P to engage and kill even the diversionary missions by the IAF and bringing down entire flights of MKIs and M2Ks.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 796343
> 
> 
> 
> And even as PAF interceptors neared, the Balakot strike group could all be engaged as they returned since the other option for them would have to fly into Chinese airspace to get away.
> 
> View attachment 796344
> 
> 
> One by One - They would all be taken down.
> View attachment 796345
> 
> 
> View attachment 796346
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *NOW*
> 
> What would happen on the 27th if the IAF had the S-400?
> 
> This the coverage for the S-400 if it would replace a Sa-3 Goa site at Adampur
> 
> View attachment 796337
> 
> 
> 
> This would allow it to engage the *ENTIRE *PAF strike group including the F-16 fighter sweep at will.
> View attachment 796338
> 
> 
> 
> The F-16 flight would still manage shots at the MKIs and M2ks to bring them down but would also be swatted like flies.
> 
> View attachment 796339
> 
> 
> Even the Mirage flights returning and the JF-17 strike group will get mauled.
> View attachment 796340
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries.


This means that:-
-LRSAM's change the whole equation for both sides in both strike and interception.
-Tactics which have been developed in decades, many out of them are usless now.
-LRSAM do act as strong deterrence against aerial advantures.


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## arjunk

@SQ8 is this game worth the money in your opinion?


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## -=virus=-

there's a steep learning curve and is not exactly a DCS like, no pretty graphics etc but super fun for military nerds if you just want to strategize and see scenarios play out.


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## Sine Nomine

SQ8 said:


> Alright - since people @kursed had pointed out that the original scenario seemed rigged to give the LRSAMs an advantage. I just reran it with a few minor adjustments.
> 
> The doctrine for the Indian side was that it was to go weapons free as soon as the first strike was hit(H-4 hit on Narian or Naushera).
> 
> So the Mirage strike force was tasked to take a different route westward but otherwise the same altitude profile. Launching from the south west rather than a southern approach. The H-4 guidance aircraft too follow this approach and all made it back ok with decent internal fuel remaining.
> 
> The F-16 escort package too was tasked to fly at 2000ft all the way to the border.
> 
> The interesting aspect of this approach was that while with the original approach the simulated Indian aircraft would redirect and focus on the strike group, here they seemed to have no clue and happily loitered away.
> View attachment 796456
> 
> 
> 
> The REK group with JF-17s too was not bothered inbound and by this time the trigger made ROE hostile pursuit for the Indian side but they were unable to bother the strike package instead starting a spat with the JF-17 escort.
> View attachment 796457
> 
> 
> Now at this time the S-400 at Adampur(elevation 800ft) was ROE free to engage all targets not positively identified as friendly and yet not a single missile left the ground. I took over and deliberately tried to get it to fire at everything and it would not fire. (FYI I had set the skill level for both LRSAMs as average so no inequality).
> This same S-400 that was pumping out missile after missile at the F-16 flight at 20000ft was unable to make a meow at 2000ft???
> It did manage to launch 1 missile finally at a F-16 but that went stupid after heading towards the north east. Was overall SA for the Indian side a factor?
> 
> *BECAUSE *- getting a targeting solution on something flying 50km closer at 15000ft is easier than something flying either same area at 2000ft or further out.
> 
> Oddly, as the computer(and not humans) were controlling both sides - the Indian M2Ks do try to engage the JF-17s and also the H-4 weapons again. This triggers the F-16s on the Pakistani side to start lobbing AMRAAMS even from 2000ft. The loft as they do and 7 AIM-120s vs 4 MKIs is not good math of which only one manages to make an AMRAAM dodger.
> 
> View attachment 796458
> 
> 
> Now for basically shits and giggles I gave the Sihala based HQ-9 ROE free and it started pumping out missiles at the Mirages even as they ran towards Srinagar(_does the Hq-9 loft??_) and even with evasive maneuvering those mirages were brought down.
> 
> Finally, I let Alpha-1 with his Mig-21 get airborne and as soon as he crossed over Gulmarg heading towards sunset peak at minimum altitude(_which in this case was 9000ft_) trying to ambush the F-16 flight he had Aim-120s and HQ-9s launched at him. Frankly they could have launched the entire squadron and it would not have survived what was on the other side.
> View attachment 796459
> 
> 
> 
> So, takeaways.
> 
> Unless the S-400 is placed closer(_putting it under risk from even A-100 MBRL attacks_) take off to low level flight is very doable and if lessons from the Iranians are taken on refueling at low level then the PAF should be ok to operate and perform decent SEAD operations too.
> 
> The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone. And this simulation was designed by western sources using their estimates and "bias".


Basically LRSAM's totally alters the equation for both sides,IAF would be having very tough time while operating in IOJK airspace,it's platforms would be constantly painted by hostile radars from both Pakistani and Chinese side.

PAF needs to work double time on SEAD/DEAD tactics,we need dedicated Sq's for performing this job.


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## SQ8

Sine Nomine said:


> Basically LRSAM's totally alters the equation for both sides,IAF would be having very tough time while operating in IOJK airspace,it's platforms would be constantly painted by hostile radars from both Pakistani and Chinese side.
> 
> PAF needs to work double time on SEAD/DEAD tactics,we need dedicated Sq's for performing this job.


It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.
SEAD & DEAD operations are going to look very different along with CAS. There is going to be massive data and there will more and more burden placed on both PAF pilots and PA field commanders to be extremely agile in their decision making. 
It will be imperative for them to be experts in multiple fields including EW and know exactly how to play their chess pieces. 
To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.


Bilal. said:


> Can we add layering to the SAMs on both sides. Would it matter given the performance of HQ9 and S400?


It definitely would - both the HQ9 and S400 arent good at long range HIMAD engagements. At low level the HQ-17 and Akash/Derby MR excel and they will eat up the rest.

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## Sine Nomine

SQ8 said:


> It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.


I hope they also completly sort out internal security also.



SQ8 said:


> To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
> Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.


I trust Bharatis and there ability to do f**k up's,what concerns me is uncle sam putting it's weight behind them.I realise that it's training imparted by US which has helped us a lot in keeping them on bay,afaik US is popping them as counter weight to China while training them to fight PLA,here i am sure that they won't fight China neither they have religious(something which plays important role in South Asia of today)motive,neither national desire to do so,but Pakistan is sworn enemy,it's nothing more than last fort of medieval Muslim Empires and to avenge"millennium of humiliation"it must be destroyed.Whatever US is teaching them is going to be directed against Pakistan down the road.

Su-30 is honestly speaking a good platform but Russian avionics in late 90's were not on par with their peers,to bring avionics on par with other 4th Gen platforms IAF cooked up Isareli,French and local systems to make "Raptor of East"which ended as failure,if i am not wrong they have not placed an order for new long range BVR's for it after 27th Feb 2019 events in which it was outgunned.


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## Bilal.

SQ8 said:


> It does but at the same time there are things evolving where you will a paradigm shift in how the PAF & PA do their operations in coordination.
> SEAD & DEAD operations are going to look very different along with CAS. There is going to be massive data and there will more and more burden placed on both PAF pilots and PA field commanders to be extremely agile in their decision making.
> It will be imperative for them to be experts in multiple fields including EW and know exactly how to play their chess pieces.
> To that effect the Indians arent sleeping either and their loyal wingman programs are focused on just that. In 15 years that massive MKI fleet will take a backseat as drone controller while Rafale's, Tejas Mk2s and AMCAs battle it out.
> Frankly the MKI really has been a useless investment for them in the bigger picture but may live out its final years as force multiplying UCAV leads.
> 
> It definitely would - both the HQ9 and S400 arent good at long range HIMAD engagements. At low level the HQ-17 and Akash/Derby MR excel and they will eat up the rest.


Than it would be nice to see how it will play out if both Mid (LY80 and indian analogues) and Short (HQ7 and indian analogues) ranged SAMs are added.

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## CriticalThought

SQ8 said:


> So , what has happened by the introduction of these assets is that aircraft will have to fly much lower so reducing their effective combat radius and loiter time. They will have to carry severe jammers otherwise most of the border airspace on the Indian side and half of Pakistani airspace is hostile for their host countries.



Allow me to disagree. This is how an elite airforce such as PAF would plan. According to wikipedia:









S-400 missile system - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





we have the following situation:


Missile NameMax VelocityMax RangeTime To Target40N6E1190 m/s400 km5.6 mins48N6DM/48N6E32000 m/s250 km2 mins48N6E22000 m/s200 km1.6 mins9M961000 m/s120 km2 mins

Assuming the missile flies at max velocity all the way, these are the times on station that PAF pilots have. In reality, the missile will not have a uniform max velocity, and there is time for the target acquisition, and decision making loop as well. This is more than enough time for any professional pilots to launch stand-off weapons. The exception is TV guided missiles such as H-2/4 for which even if NOE tactics are used, Indian AEWACS will pick them up and they will be vulnerable to Indian aircraft. Some measure of air superiority will be required to launch them.

In this context, it is interesting to note the space command. S-400 launches will be picked up by IR based satellites, and I expect at least Thunder pilots hearing 'SAM Launch', 'SAM Launch' in their cockpits. Let's see if they can get this announcement to the Viper Drivers as well.

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## JamD

kursed said:


> I wonder if @SQ8 would do us the honor of running a simulation involving the newly acquired UAVs (in numbers to confuse the Indian IADS) in conjunctions with J10Cs/JF-17 to launch a first strike at S400 on the other side.
> 
> It'd make up for interesting results.





SQ8 said:


> Lets do it on a separate thread - but that would be interesting to see what they are able to do.





kursed said:


> Yes, please.


Perhaps we can continue in this thread or perhaps a separate thread is warranted due to the very specific nature of the requested simulation.

Step 0 should be our best estimate of the types, numbers, and roles of systems in service for whenever this scenario is to play out (end of 2022?)

Step 0a listing of types:
PA:
Uqaab
Uqaab NG
CH4B
Burraq
Shahpar II

PAF:
Falco?
Shahpar
Burraq
Shahpar II
TB2
WL
WL2

PN (should we consider PN?):
Luna NG
Scan Eagle
Uqaab NG
CH4B

These are just guesses and I might be wrong on some distributions since I'm just listing them. I would request @farooqbhai007 to correct this list.

Then we can easily decide the roles for each type.

Finally we can guesstimate numbers based on years in production and/or info based on orders.

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## kursed

JamD said:


> Perhaps we can continue in this thread or perhaps a separate thread is warranted due to the very specific nature of the requested simulation.
> 
> Step 0 should be our best estimate of the types, numbers, and roles of systems in service for whenever this scenario is to play out (end of 2022?)
> 
> Step 0a listing of types:
> PA:
> Uqaab
> Uqaab NG
> CH4B
> Burraq
> Shahpar II
> 
> PAF:
> Falco?
> Shahpar
> Burraq
> Shahpar II
> TB2
> WL
> WL2
> 
> PN (should we consider PN?):
> Luna NG
> Scan Eagle
> Uqaab NG
> CH4B
> 
> These are just guesses and I might be wrong on some distributions since I'm just listing them. I would request @farooqbhai007 to correct this list.
> 
> Then we can easily decide the roles for each type.
> 
> Finally we can guesstimate numbers based on years in production and/or info based on orders.


CM401, iREK, REK III and MAR-1 kits. EW payload on WL2s. Couple this with on ground help from Fatah-1.

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## JamD

We would also need to think about how many UCAVs can be launched for a time-on-target type attack. Maybe keep the scenario limited to a strike on that Brahmos housing facility on that other thread. Or maybe Ambala AFB.

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## kursed

Waiting on @SQ8


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## SQ8

tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
*The Brahmos Gambit: *
Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems

In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:

3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems

1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.

2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD

2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)

4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.

2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad

2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.

Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.

India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.

Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets

1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.







The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs






At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.

At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.






2100 hours:
1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.






2120 hours:
As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.

The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.






2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.







Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.

At this point I ended the simulation:

India Losses:

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
1x EMB-145I AEWC - _No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim._
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
1x Radar (Master-T)
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]

Expenditures:
------------------
12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
2x 800 liter Drop Tank
8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]


Pakistan Losses:
-------------------------------
2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
4x Falco UAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
8x Barq ATGM
5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
7x HJ-10 ATGM
33x HQ-9B
11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
12x MAR-1 [ARM]
4x PL-10
9x PL-15
2x PL-9

*My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.

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## Pak Nationalist

SQ8 said:


> All well outlined and plausible strategic outcomes - but perhaps I should have clarified. Seeing as how I am posting a tactical view - what do you see happening on the tactical level.
> so for e.g. after the heavy Indian attack on the 28th - Pakistan retaliates within 40 minutes with a massive barrage of Shaheen -II and Babur systems armed with conventional warheads while simultaneously hitting the Indian Air force and key command and control nodes. This I can put into the sim if I get a guess of where to place what. Does that make sense?
> 
> Ok - so lets put that into what happens later on 28th February - what is Pakistani retaliation to what you quoted?
> 
> Well - that sort of played out already. So what happens after this massive Indian retaliation for swift retort. Now what tactical scenario plays out?


Do you believe (your simulation predicts) that our conventional fighting abilities using platforms like acs would be blunted to the extent that we would have to use CMs and BMs? The simulation ended with IAF withdrawal at around 3 am from the Pakistani skies. Can you imagine a scenario where a Pakistani riposte includes PAF as well? 

I am curious if we are conducting integrated exercises using all these assets simultaneously to war game similar scenarios. When PAF conducts exercises, there is no leak about simulating BM/CM strikes as well anywhere. 

We could not afford to wage a long conflict given the state of our economy, otherwise, cross LoC large scale intrusions could be a good riposte that could catch Indians by surprise if they were waiting for a type for type response. However, for any substantive gains in terms of capturing and holding ground in Kashmir, troop mobilization would have to take place. I wonder if mixed "irregulars" and available troops, special forces in AJK could be routed to probe Indian defenses along the LoC as rapid mobilization of other elements takes place. We must be able to mobilize more quickly than the Indians in this scenario as well.


----------



## PanzerKiel

Pak Nationalist said:


> I am curious if we are conducting integrated exercises using all these assets simultaneously to war game similar scenarios. When PAF conducts exercises, there is no leak about simulating BM/CM strikes as well anywhere.
> 
> We could not afford to wage a long conflict given the state of our economy, otherwise, cross LoC large scale intrusions could be a good riposte that could catch Indians by surprise if they were waiting for a type for type response. However, for any substantive gains in terms of capturing and holding ground in Kashmir, troop mobilization would have to take place. I wonder if mixed "irregulars" and available troops, special forces in AJK could be routed to probe Indian defenses along the LoC as rapid mobilization of other elements takes place. We must be able to mobilize more quickly than the Indians in this scenario as well.


I can answer all this..... But somehow can't. Just can assure you that all this this plays out pretty smoothly.....with a much greater escalation.

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## Pak Nationalist

PanzerKiel said:


> I can answer all this..... But somehow can't. Just can assure you that all this this plays out pretty smoothly.....with a much greater escalation.



A quick intrusion and grab of as much territory as possible along the LoC followed by the mating of strategic weapons would make the world intervene immediately while denting the prestige of the Indian military as well as the Hindu nationalist government's popularity there.

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## kursed

SQ8 said:


> tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
> *The Brahmos Gambit: *
> Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
> The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
> It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
> There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
> In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
> Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
> Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems
> 
> In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:
> 
> 3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
> 1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
> 1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
> 2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
> 2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
> 4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
> 4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
> 4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems
> 
> 1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
> 1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.
> 
> 2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD
> 
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
> 2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)
> 
> 4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
> 1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.
> 
> 2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad
> 
> 2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.
> 
> Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.
> 
> India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.
> 
> Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets
> 
> 1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.
> 
> View attachment 807940
> 
> 
> The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
> The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
> Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs
> 
> View attachment 807941
> 
> 
> At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
> They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
> Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.
> 
> At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.
> 
> View attachment 807942
> 
> 
> 2100 hours:
> 1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
> The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.
> 
> View attachment 807943
> 
> 
> 2120 hours:
> As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
> ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.
> 
> The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
> Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.
> 
> View attachment 807944
> 
> 
> 2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
> UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.
> 
> 
> View attachment 807945
> 
> 
> Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
> by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.
> 
> At this point I ended the simulation:
> 
> India Losses:
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC - _No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim._
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
> 1x Radar (Master-T)
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
> 4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
> 3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
> 1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]
> 
> Expenditures:
> ------------------
> 12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 800 liter Drop Tank
> 8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
> 25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
> 21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
> 12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
> 6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]
> 
> 
> Pakistan Losses:
> -------------------------------
> 2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 4x Falco UAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
> 1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 
> EXPENDITURES:
> ------------------
> 4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
> 2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
> 8x Barq ATGM
> 5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
> 7x HJ-10 ATGM
> 33x HQ-9B
> 11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
> 12x MAR-1 [ARM]
> 4x PL-10
> 9x PL-15
> 2x PL-9
> 
> *My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.


Pretty much how I’d have imagined this scenario to shape up. I would like to know if you can add Fatah-1 to the mix, before our UAVs start jamming the other side - while considering S400 operational (active) - pushing its effective range back - and instead of H4, JF17s deploy with CM401s. And so far, we haven’t even taken into account loitering munition capable of being deployed via ANKA, WL2s and TB2s for SEAD missions. 

All in all, you can pretty much see why PAF is going for a large number of UAVs right here.

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## JamD

kursed said:


> Pretty much how I’d have imagined this scenario to shape up. I would like to know if you can add Fatah-1 to the mix, before our UAVs start jamming the other side - while considering S400 operational (active) - pushing its effective range back - and instead of H4, JF17s deploy with CM401s. And so far, we haven’t even taken into account loitering munition capable of being deployed via ANKA, WL2s and TB2s for SEAD missions.
> 
> All in all, you can pretty much see why PAF is going for a large number of UAVs right here.


Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
> *The Brahmos Gambit: *
> Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
> The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
> It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
> There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
> In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
> Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
> Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems
> 
> In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:
> 
> 3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
> 1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
> 1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
> 2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
> 2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
> 4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
> 4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
> 4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems
> 
> 1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
> 1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.
> 
> 2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD
> 
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
> 2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)
> 
> 4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
> 1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.
> 
> 2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad
> 
> 2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.
> 
> Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.
> 
> India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.
> 
> Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets
> 
> 1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.
> 
> View attachment 807940
> 
> 
> The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
> The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
> Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs
> 
> View attachment 807941
> 
> 
> At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
> They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
> Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.
> 
> At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.
> 
> View attachment 807942
> 
> 
> 2100 hours:
> 1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
> The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.
> 
> View attachment 807943
> 
> 
> 2120 hours:
> As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
> ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.
> 
> The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
> Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.
> 
> View attachment 807944
> 
> 
> 2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
> UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.
> 
> 
> View attachment 807945
> 
> 
> Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
> by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.
> 
> At this point I ended the simulation:
> 
> India Losses:
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC - _No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim._
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
> 1x Radar (Master-T)
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
> 4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
> 3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
> 1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]
> 
> Expenditures:
> ------------------
> 12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 800 liter Drop Tank
> 8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
> 25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
> 21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
> 12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
> 6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]
> 
> 
> Pakistan Losses:
> -------------------------------
> 2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 4x Falco UAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
> 1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 
> EXPENDITURES:
> ------------------
> 4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
> 2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
> 8x Barq ATGM
> 5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
> 7x HJ-10 ATGM
> 33x HQ-9B
> 11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
> 12x MAR-1 [ARM]
> 4x PL-10
> 9x PL-15
> 2x PL-9
> 
> *My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.


Some important lessons for me......"on a personal level"...from this simulation.....

First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers along with the SAM site itself need to be protected at all cost.

Second...simulation maybe does not take into account duds or failed launches......

Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?

Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means NOTHING would fly.

Fifth....i see no mention of commercial flights.....if they are not there, that serves as an early indicator, if they are there then it gets pretty dangerous.

My two cents. @SQ8 excellent read as usual.

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?


That really is the right question - Pakistan was a direct spectator/advisor to the karabakh conflict where Israel being India’s partner who was the spectator/advisor. Only Israel is a manufacturer who can adapt on the fly.

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## PanzerKiel

PanzerKiel said:


> Some important lessons for me......"on a personal level"...from this simulation.....
> 
> First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers need to be protected at all cost.
> 
> Second...simulation maybe does not take into account duds or failed launches......
> 
> Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?
> 
> Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means EVERYTHING would go out.
> 
> Fifth....i see no mention of commercial flights.....if they are not there, that serves as an early indicator, if they are there then it gets pretty dangerous.
> 
> My two cents. @SQ8 excellent read as usual.


...and then, what if, India goes all out against us...with all assets....that would be even more interesting.

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## Pak Nationalist

JamD said:


> Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?



They are working on swarm drone technology. They have put in some rudimentary stuff in the public domain already. Their armed UAV program might not be that far ahead, but they might be looking at utilizing unmanned systems in other ways (cluttering the enemy's AD environment to affect increased survivability for their aircraft in contested environments) than purely as platforms for payload delivery.

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Some important lessons for me......"on a personal level"...from this simulation.....
> 
> First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers along with the SAM site itself need to be protected at all cost.
> 
> Second...simulation maybe does not take into account duds or failed launches......
> 
> Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?
> 
> Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means EVERYTHING would go out.
> 
> Fifth....i see no mention of commercial flights.....if they are not there, that serves as an early indicator, if they are there then it gets pretty dangerous.
> 
> My two cents. @SQ8 excellent read as usual.


Will try to incorporate and see what happens - the problem. My biggest gripe with this is that its still - “planned”. What guarantees are there that an Indian strike isn’t happening already , what other factors in a live scenario are happening which impact such plans ?

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## JamD

Pak Nationalist said:


> They are working on swarm drone technology. They have put in some rudimentary stuff in the public domain already. Their armed UAV program might not be that far ahead, but they might be looking at utilizing unmanned systems in other ways (cluttering the enemy's AD environment to affect increased survivability for their aircraft in contested environments) than purely as platforms for payload delivery.


We might be facing these 


Deino said:


> I must admit, I'm surprised ...
> 
> View attachment 787374
> View attachment 787375
> 
> View attachment 787376

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## kursed

SQ8 said:


> That really is the right question - Pakistan was a direct spectator/advisor to the karabakh conflict where Israel being India’s partner who was the spectator/advisor. Only Israel is a manufacturer who can adapt on the fly.


@JamD I'd like to think that Turkey as a primary advisor to Azeris for this war, and a close friend of Pakistan will be something we need to keep in mind?




PanzerKiel said:


> First HQ-9.......33 rounds were fired.....means troops need to be highly trained in quick loading drills, ammo reserve needs to be readily available after each engagement....ammo carriers along with the SAM site itself need to be protected at all cost.


 The sim is also not taking into account that there might be 2 batteries of S400 facing us, not one.



> Third...Brahmos....some of them were taken out.....however, God knows if some of them are nuclear tipped, what would be the outcome? Rad fallout?


 Do Indians portray Brahmos as a dual-use system? 



> Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means NOTHING would fly.


 I am guessing that whenever there's the next adventure from the other side, EW will come into play before any kinetic weapons.

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## firohot4321

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


With these kind of dumb simulations no wonder USA lost in Afghanistan


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## kursed

JamD said:


> Question: Is India doing the same? If not wont they eventually? How does one defend against something like this?





JamD said:


> We might be facing these


Eventually yes. But as with other such assets, once India opts to introduce an entirely new capability in the region, Pakistan opts to do the same - in this case, would be getting something similar from China.

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## Pak Nationalist

JamD said:


> We might be facing these


Quite sleek. I bet their radar signature would be lower than the traditional UAVs. Would these be used as suicide drones, carry jammers? Their powerplant mightn't be large enough for the latter.

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## JamD

Pak Nationalist said:


> Quite sleek. I bet their radar signature would be lower than the traditional UAVs. Would these be used as suicide drones, carry jammers? Their powerplant mightn't be large enough for the latter.


I think their primary mission is strike.

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## HRK

kursed said:


> The sim is also not taking into account that there might be 2 batteries of S400 facing us, not one.


Yes but most probably both would not be present n Indian Punjab other one would be either in Gujarat or in Rajasthan

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## SQ8

firohot4321 said:


> With these kind of dumb simulations no wonder USA lost in Afghanistan


Great - then you don’t have to participate in this thread

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## farooqbhai007

PanzerKiel said:


> Fourth...Indian jamming capabilities....there are more than 10 Signal EW Groups, out of which number 1 group is with their Northern Command....their jamming capabilities are considerable....should have an effect on our UAV operations....but then they might use as a last resort....which means NOTHING would fly.



But the real question also is how good are our EW capabilities though, so far there's only pics of NRTCs COMINT system , and another type of SIGINT/COMINT system , receiver unit of which is showed in every parade.

EW seems to be the most secretive assets so far ,

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## SQ8

kursed said:


> @JamD I'd like to think that Turkey as a primary advisor to Azeris for this war, and a close friend of Pakistan will be something we need to keep in mind?
> 
> 
> The sim is also not taking into account that there might be 2 batteries of S400 facing us, not one.
> 
> Do Indians portray Brahmos as a dual-use system?
> 
> I am guessing that whenever there's the next adventure from the other side, EW will come into play before any kinetic weapons.


Where would the second one go - I making a guesstimate that Adampur makes an ideal site.

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## kursed

SQ8 said:


> Where would the second one go - I making a guesstimate that Adampur makes an ideal site.


Anywhere b/w 200-250 KM from the border, as long as it gives cover to the original battery. Also, can we make S400 mobile? Like shoot/scoot, in order to add another variable to the situation.


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## Bilal.

JamD said:


> I think their primary mission is strike.


And something like this will be a perfect future replacement for mirage strike platform if Pakistan can manage to come up with the capability.

A VLO unmanned platform capable of carrying 2 REK/IREK, REKIII, compact version of H4(Raptor-3?) or 1 RAAD-2 internally.

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## Warking

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


IDK man seems very unrealistic to me especially the mountain alliance BS.


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## m52k85

SQ8 said:


> tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
> *The Brahmos Gambit: *
> Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
> The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
> It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
> There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
> In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
> Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
> Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems
> 
> In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:
> 
> 3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
> 1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
> 1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
> 2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
> 2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
> 4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
> 4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
> 4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems
> 
> 1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
> 1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.
> 
> 2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD
> 
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
> 2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)
> 
> 4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
> 1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.
> 
> 2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad
> 
> 2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.
> 
> Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.
> 
> India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.
> 
> Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets
> 
> 1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.
> 
> View attachment 807940
> 
> 
> The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
> The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
> Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs
> 
> View attachment 807941
> 
> 
> At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
> They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
> Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.
> 
> At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.
> 
> View attachment 807942
> 
> 
> 2100 hours:
> 1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
> The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.
> 
> View attachment 807943
> 
> 
> 2120 hours:
> As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
> ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.
> 
> The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
> Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.
> 
> View attachment 807944
> 
> 
> 2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
> UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.
> 
> 
> View attachment 807945
> 
> 
> Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
> by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.
> 
> At this point I ended the simulation:
> 
> India Losses:
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC - _No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim._
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
> 1x Radar (Master-T)
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
> 4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
> 3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
> 1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]
> 
> Expenditures:
> ------------------
> 12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 800 liter Drop Tank
> 8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
> 25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
> 21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
> 12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
> 6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]
> 
> 
> Pakistan Losses:
> -------------------------------
> 2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 4x Falco UAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
> 1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 
> EXPENDITURES:
> ------------------
> 4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
> 2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
> 8x Barq ATGM
> 5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
> 7x HJ-10 ATGM
> 33x HQ-9B
> 11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
> 12x MAR-1 [ARM]
> 4x PL-10
> 9x PL-15
> 2x PL-9
> 
> *My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.


Thanks, great stuff, this is what id like to see more off on pdf.

A few notes, Indian CAPs go down at 8.30 this should be when India knows of a major air incursion, countering with 2 flights of MKI and 0.5 flight of Rafale interceptors from 3 airbases looks far too weak a response. Why are Halwara interceptors not up faster? Adampur doesnt even scramble any interceptors?

And still scrambling Mig-21s, whats up with that? I thought two lessons from Feb-19 were clearly picked up by IAF, secure communications and to not lead with Mig-21s. Surely, before they decide on an Brahmos strike they wouldve moved Tejas or Mirages upto Pathankot. Similarly, Bathinda would logically also have more premier assets forward deployed. Overall, this is an hour long protracted mileau, not single layer and standoff strike like IAF's Balakot, so I wouldve thought interceptors have a larger role.

What's the reason intercepting MKIs and Rafale's couldnt even get an AAM shot-off? Who did the Jf-17s Blk-II engage with Pl-12s? I'd imagine IAF getting off shots atleast on that confrontation.

Thanks again.

p.s. F-16s and Amraams werent even needed! Kudos to PAF.

Edit: Even before the Indian CAPs go down at 8.30, an hour earlier the UAVs are picked up by IAF AEW, that means it would have picked up the manned formations from Sargodha and Rafique as well. That would give even more time to IAF to put up more numbers. So, did the IAF not respond to more contacts on the AEW or did AEW not pick it up?

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## m52k85

kursed said:


> Do Indians portray Brahmos as a dual-use system?


I have been wondering about this as well. I gather from here the answer is `no':





However, Pakistan seems to show a very clear stance of a `yes' answer.


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## m52k85

JamD said:


> How does one defend against something like this?


A very difficult question to answer. Here's an easier one: How does one inflict enough damage on the strike package (men and material)?#

A quick win that comes to mind would be additional well hidden Surveillance and Fire Control Radar's for the SAM batteries that can go online in a few minutes. Once the SEAD aircraft have taken out radar at extreme stand-off ranges, there are a few minutes of false sense of security the remaining package has in such a situation. Imagine if the REK Jfs are rolling in after the SEAD aircraft have done their job and suddenly the S-400 goes online again at much closer ranges.

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## VkdIndian

SQ8 said:


> The HQ-9 placed at Sihala at 1500 ft which had SA from the SAAB and other assets is a freaking monster making anything but low level and NOE airspace over IOK a death zone.


Wouldn’t Indian side getting SA from their AEWs? What about Indian radars positioned at higher altitudes that give them some look at lower altitudes into Pakistan? Any consideration to Sihala based HQ9 may be a high value target for Indian side and they might try to neutralise these first? If these were factored in then India should be already throwing-in the towel.

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## CriticalThought

Yo @SQ8 my man!!! Get that Audi out, pick up some supplies, and go cruising into the wild man. There ain't gonna be no war in the next hundred years dude!!!






“We are not seeking hostility with India for the next 100 years" pakistan's New security policy seeks ‘peace’ with India


ISLAMABAD: Peace with immediate neighbours and economic diplomacy will be the central theme of the country’s foreign policy in the new National Security Policy, scheduled to be unveiled on Friday. The original 100-page policy, which would be kept under wraps, leaves the door open for trade and...



defence.pk


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## Muhammed45

India has Brahmos plus S400 and it must be countered by the Pakistanis. 

I Remember once Russian president asked the audience, why are Americans deploying Patriots along with long range radars plus Tomahawks on our borders? He well described that combination of cruise missiles and airdefense systems is an offensive act. 

Pakistan should also take it to serioursly and prepare for the deadly combination considering the fact that S400 is not just an airdefense system but also a land attack asset which can target ground based radars and other military installations from 400 KM away. 

China would help Pakistan with open arms i guess.


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## PanzerKiel

m52k85 said:


> ........an hour earlier the UAVs are picked up by IAF AEW, that means it would have picked up the manned formations from Sargodha and Rafique as well. That would give even more time to IAF to put up more numbers. So, did the IAF not respond to more contacts on the AEW or did AEW not pick it up?


Something exactly like this happened on 27 Feb as well, once our airforce took to air, it was readily detected.....however, even then, IAF was unable to put up their max interceptors in the air.....thats what i keep pointing out everywhere, a hidden capability on our side...thats where combat tactics come in.

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## HRK

SQ8 said:


> Where would the second one go - I making a guesstimate that Adampur makes an ideal site.


Indian are establishing (or have established) another base of Brahmos Missiles in Gujrat so probably somewhere near to that location

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## PanzerKiel

HRK said:


> Indian are establishing (or have established) another base of Brahmos Missiles in Gujrat so probably somewhere near to that location


There are other high value assets which Indians will accord priority to...including protection of S-400. Brahmos base, as far as i know, doesnt qualify for that.

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## farooqbhai007

HRK said:


> Indian are establishing (or have established) another base of Brahmos Missiles in Gujrat so probably somewhere near to that location


Like Panzerkiel said Brahmos is not a high value target as compared to S400 , For Brahmos there are 3 Indian Army sites in Punjab/Kashmir and 3 Indian army sites in Rajasthan. The IAF has 2 sites in Punjab and 2 sites in Indian Gujarat. 
So we are facing a total of 10 Brahmos Sites. While even if Indians deploy all S400s , there will probably be only 3 Regiments on our border side that is 6 sites given each battery is deployed separate. ( Each IAF Regiment has 2 batteries ) and a total of 5 Regiments are ordered. So you can see S400 will be more HVT due to a lower number as well.

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## The Eagle

Most of S-400 are deployed deep inside for protection of high value sites/equipment. For S-400 they will be or even deployed more defence. A nice run and can be treated as a controlled & well planned onslaught similar to 27th Feb, 2019. It appears to be same kind of response after instigation at first (read Brahmos strike preparation Intel). Whether it was realistic or not but it tells a bit of change in tactics can keep you ahead of enemy. 

UAV/UCAV with EW/Attack capability is something that one will not be worried about as compare to a manned A/C. In the meantime, Manned assets will be taking care of opposing manned assets as well. IN all and all; this is more about EW/ECM/UCAV/UAVs and that simulation pretty much presents the idea to have such quality/capability with experience and command on system. The other side will definitely be applying everything in the mix and there, ground intel/AI will play a major role.

@SQ8 First of all thank you for an interesting & a good learning by simulation at-least. A quick question: Did SIM consider all of AD capability of Indian side and deploys the same during simulation? I mean from Aerial assets to Ground capability.

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## HRK

PanzerKiel said:


> There are other high value assets which Indians will accord priority to...including protection of S-400. Brahmos base, as far as i know, doesnt qualify for that.


I understand but I was not expecting only on the basis of Brahmos facility but the on th bases of _Indian policy of establishing offensive capabilities in south as well_, they have deployed (or was planning to deploy) RAPID in Rajasthan have develop a new airbase in Gujrat

There is higher chances that India will use S-400 as offensive weapon rather in defensive role. 

Other than these as you have pointed out they have many multi billion $ dollar assets in Gujarat like reliance refinery, oil and Chemical industry, oil & gas pipelines, ports ets etc.

So there is higher chances of at least 1 S-400 battery going there, which may act as counter force to our Bholari Air Base

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## farooqbhai007

HRK said:


> I understand but I was not expecting only on the basis of Brahmos facility but the on th bases of _Indian policy of establishing offensive capabilities in south as well_, they have deployed (or was planning to deploy) RAPID in Rajasthan have develop a new airbase in Gujrat
> 
> There is higher chances that India will use S-400 as offensive weapon rather in defensive role.
> 
> Other than these as you have pointed out they have many multi billion $ dollar assets in Gujarat like reliance refinery, oil and Chemical industry, oil & gas pipelines, ports ets etc.
> 
> So there is higher chances of at least 1 S-400 battery going there, which may act as counter force to our Bholari Air Base


Gujarat has little to no IA Armour units , there is only a regiment with T72s Bhuj , which is pretty much it. There are however infantry units and Towed Air Def Units in Gujarat. The Indians would send Assets from Rajasthan Trio ( Jaislamer - Bikaner - Jodhapur ) to Gujarat , with supporting units from Pune.

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## HRK

farooqbhai007 said:


> Gujarat has little to no IA Armour units ,


عزیز من
This is what I said


HRK said:


> they have deployed (or was planning to deploy) RAPID *in Rajasthan*

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## SIPRA

PanzerKiel said:


> Something exactly like this happened on 27 Feb as well, once our airforce took to air, it was readily detected.....however, even then, IAF was unable to put up their max interceptors in the air.....thats what i keep pointing out everywhere, a hidden capability on our side...thats where combat tactics come in.



Sir Jee: Kuchh hum jaesay jaahilon ko bhi samjha dain.

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## The Eagle

HRK said:


> India will use S-400 as offensive weapon rather in defensive role.


I agree on that point if India raises the number of batteries in future or as planned. Initially, they will deploy and cover the mainland high value assets and then will move close or at-least in offensive manners towards Pakistan. It might take time but apparently, that is Indian plan.

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## PanzerKiel

farooqbhai007 said:


> Gujarat has little to no IA Armour units , there is only a regiment with T72s Bhuj , which is pretty much it. There are however infantry units and Towed Air Def Units in Gujarat. The Indians would send Assets from Rajasthan Trio ( Jaislamer - Bikaner - Jodhapur ) to Gujarat , with supporting units from Pune.


11 Infantry Division and 75 Indep Infantry Brigade, along with an armored / mechanized brigade are in this area.

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## HRK

SIPRA said:


> Sir Jee: Kuchh hum jaesay jaahilon ko bhi samjha dain.

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## SIPRA

HRK said:


>




....... nuff said .......

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## Sage

SQ8 said:


> I am quite fond of Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations as a past time and is a fairly realistic wargame:
> 
> "Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations is a comprehensive wargame of air & naval military operations from post WW2 to the near future, covering scenarios of both total war and low intensity situations. The scale is primarily tactical/operational, although strategic scale operations are also possible."
> 
> It is also provided to militaries as a simulation and scenario tester
> 
> https://command.matrixgames.com/?page_id=3822
> 
> They regularly consult with think tanks and former military to build out their playable scenarios so they are sometimes ground in reality if not a little hyperbole thrown in. So to give us something other than the usual to delve on and let our top members have some thoughts thrown out - along with helping me spend a boring Friday afternoon, I decided to paste the entire scenario with some comments thrown in and get " reviews", thoughts and laughter if at all. But it also helps address the question of where the future is really going. * BE forewarned, it can be a long read so only if you feel you have the time and find nothing better to do*
> 
> @Irfan Baloch @Dazzler @niaz @notorious_eagle @fatman17 @krash @The Eagle @PanzerKiel @PAR 5 @Signalian @Foxtrot Alpha @LeGenD @Deino
> 
> Other members can tag others as well - after all, with all the chaos going on in the world, why not stress a little more with thoughts of more chaos?
> 
> Recently they came out with a scenario for the subcontinent called Kashmir Fire - it basically extrapolates from the events of 2019 and puts them in 2024 and goes from there. The scenario plays out over 16 engagements that switch sides to provide a full play perspective from both sides. Starting with just India and Pakistan it ends with a Indian-US alliance taking out a Pakistani-Chinese alliance completely. What is interesting is that another simulation back in the early 90s(even with Pressler) imagined the US attacking India with the help of Pakistan - so it is a good reflection of what both think tanks and eager enthusiasts are all aligned on.
> 
> The crux of events is below(2024 timeframe):
> 
> *1. Border Skirmish*
> Ever since the Indian Subcontinent was independent of Great Britain, conflict between the predominantly Hindu Indian population and predominantly Muslim Pakistani population has been practically constant. With several official and unofficial conflicts taking place between 1947 and today, there is plenty of bad blood between the two nations.
> 
> Recently insurgents in northern Pakistan have increased attacks into Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces have put pressure along the border to contain insurgents to Pakistan, but are so far unsuccessful. Pakistani forces have also engaged with these insurgents, however the frequency of attacks within Pakistan is minimal in comparison. Indian Armed Forces are massing in the Kashmir and Punjab regions to bolster local police and military forces in an effort to stem the insurgent attacks.
> 
> Three days ago, Indian forces launched a short incursion into Pakistan chasing after withdrawing insurgents, they retreated into India quickly, however their presence was known. Pakistan strongly denounced the Indian military action outside of their borders, and warned of a retaliation in case of a repeat offense. Tensions between the two South Asian powers are running high, and conflict appears inevitable.
> (Essentially 27th Februray but with the supposed "surgical strike" of Uri as the start)
> 
> Indian Mechanized forces have moved across the border for the second time in three days, they have been warned, and this time they will suffer the consequences.
> Eliminate the three (3) Forward Operating Bases near the border in southern Kashmir and northern Punjab. FOBs Serpent, Hydra, and Harpy are already located for striking.
> In addition, engage Indian armored and mechanized forces that have crossed the border. Their exact locations are unknown, however they are reported to be East of Lahore, near Shakargarr, and near Hadali.
> _(Best outcome is essentially 27th february with much more relaxed ROEs and no losses to PAF)_
> 
> *2. Retaliation (played from Indian perspective)*
> Yesterday morning, Pakistani Forces made true their promise to engage any Indian forces that crossed the border into Pakistan. In addition to attacking Indian forces in Pakistan, Indian Forward Operating Bases on the other side of the border were attacked as well. The Pakistani operation also resulted in an air brawl, in which aircraft from both sides freely engaged each other.
> The afternoon of 19 October was relatively calm, with both sides temporarily standing down and recovering from the events of the morning. The Indian public is outraged and demands that Pakistan pay for the lives that India lost. Following an emergency meeting of top Indian officials, the decision was made to make a retaliatory strike against Pakistani military sites.
> While neither side is officially ready for conflict, it appears that the two countries will soon descend into all out conflict.
> 
> *Situation*
> Pakistan’s air assault yesterday neutralized our three forward operating bases on the frontier with Pakistan. In addition, they attacked and destroyed SAM sites along the border as well as silencing our radars operating in the region. The Ministry of Defense has decided that offensive action against PAF bases and assets is to take place as early as 0000 Zulu on 20 OCT 2024.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate high value Pakistani air defense targets and engage airbases and the facilities associated with the PAF. Ammunition storage, hangars, and fuel facilities are top targets, however runways are also desirable targets. Targets are as follows:
> All Air Defense Sectors Headquarters
> PAF Murid
> PAF Minhas
> PAF Mianwali
> PAF Rafiqui
> PAF Shahbaz
> PAF Faisal
> PAF Masroor
> In addition, Pakistan has acquired shore based cruise missiles, these are to be eliminated.
> _(About 126 IAF assets available and is considered a success if less than 3 are lost while eliminating all objectives - takes 24 hours of in simulation time - probably 90 minutes of real time to go through this) _
> 
> *3. Chaos (Played as Pakistan)*
> After India’s broad retaliatory actions, all diplomatic solutions have been thrown out the window for the short term. India and Pakistan have fallen into armed conflict on all fronts, and Indian forces are advancing into Pakistan, albeit slowly. Pakistan is putting up firm resistance in the air and on the ground, but a small Indian flotilla has effectively blockaded Pakistan’s coast.
> Many tribal leaders in the northern mountains of Pakistan were initially highly critical of the opening of hostilities with India. This led to a strong division in the Pakistani military, as many of those who call the mountains home were strongly influenced by these local authority figures. Yesterday, large units of the Pakistani Air Force and Army defected to join the Mountain Alliance_( I am assuming this is hyperbole based upon PTM but taken to the extreme)_
> The Territorial Government of Gilgit-Baltistan declared autonomy from Pakistan and has attempted to remove themselves from the conflict, however neither India or Pakistan recognized this claim and are both addressing the Mountain Alliance as terrorists.
> In addition, China has stated that they are going to remain out of the conflict, but are closely monitoring the conflict and will act in their best self interests. The United States has sent the John F. Kennedy Strike Group to monitor the situation from the Arabian Sea. The international community is strongly attempting to calm the conflict, however it is clear that neither side is showing any intention of slowing down.
> 
> *Situation*
> Hundreds of soldiers, pilots and airmen have defected to join the rebels in the north. They have seized a number of MANPADs as well as Crotale and Spada SAM systems. Multiple armored and mechanized infantry units have also defected. The rebels have seized Skardu Airbase as well as militarizing the airports in Gilgit and Chilas. The latter two bases are of extremely limited capability, and are expected to only be housing rotary wing aircraft.
> *Mission*
> Maintain the current frontline with India, and degrade the so called Mountain Alliance’s forces.
> Protect FOB Cannon east of PAF Mushaf and the refueling depot east of PAF Rafiqui.
> Conduct assigned CAS tasking ( essentially holding ops at best - the Mountain alliance also has some F-7s)
> 
> *4. Doomsday Clock (India)*
> Combat has been raging for nearly two weeks along the frontier, and neither side has made significant advances. Indian forces have taken high casualties attempting to dislodge Pakistani forces around Lahore, and so far have been unsuccessful despite an intense air and artillery campaign. Pakistani forces have also held extremely firmly at Karachi against a fairly broad Indian ground offensive.
> The Mountain Alliance has proven itself a tough nut to crack, despite having no international support and seeing offensives launched against it from both Pakistan and India. Neither country is throwing a huge amount of resources at defeating the Mountain Alliance, although they have been causing issues for both countries’ forces.
> Mountain Alliance forces have declared that if they continue to be encroached on by Indian forces, that they will make the country pay. India dismissed this, as the Mountain Alliance lacked any sort of credible offensive capability against the Indian population, until twelve hours ago.
> 
> *Situation*
> Mountain Alliance forces have seized Hatf 4, 6, and 7 launchers from a depot in Northern Pakistan. Their locations are unknown, but it is speculated that they will not hesitate to use them, so quick action is required to eliminate these launchers regardless of the cost.
> 
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Mountain Alliance ballistic and cruise missile threats. _( Tricky situation of getting sorties through mountains but the basic premise of "unsafe nuclear weapons)_
> 
> *5. Flaming Seas (played as India)*
> After narrowly avoiding nuclear catastrophe, the Indian Military stepped up its offensives in all spheres of combat. The Mountain Alliance is still holding firm, however their Air Force is completely in shambles. Pakistani forces are on the run, however they are setting up defensive lines around major cities and infrastructure.
> American and Chinese forces are closely monitoring the situation from the Indian Ocean. American diplomats are attempting to draw down the crisis, while Chinese diplomats are attempting to supply Pakistan. There have been reports of Chinese aircraft being shipped to Pakistan to supplement its dwindling Air Force, however these remain unconfirmed.
> The Pakistani Navy has stayed in port at Karachi, maintaining its status as a fleet in being. Indian forces have maintained standoff from the coast due to the presence of land based SSMs. Both Indian carriers have been sidelined early in the conflict due to technical issues, but their appearance in the waters off Pakistan is near.
> 
> *Situation*
> INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya have both sortied and are ready to launch offensive strikes against Pakistan. The Ministry of Defense has directed naval forces to engage the Pakistani fleet at Karachi. Most of their ships are currently in port at Karachi, while they have a few at sea. It is known that the crews are on high alert, and that the ships in port will be able to leave at a moment's notice. (Pakistani ships would not be sitting around , so this is turning into some simplistic assumption - also, Karachi isnt the only shelter available now)
> Most of the remaining Pakistani fleet will be active, including their most advanced frigates of Turkish and Chinese origin. They also have multiple SSKs in port and at sea, including Type 041 submarines of Chinese origin.
> Intelligence reports that thre are currently three (3) Pakistani frigates at sea in the Karachi area, and another 6-8 will be setting sail in the next 4 hours. At least two (2) submarines are at sea with another five (5) in port.
> Resistance in the air should be limited, but be prepared to deal with CAP and potential airstrikes from Pakistani land based aircraft.
> Pakistan has acquired an S-300 system from China and stationed it in Karachi. This will provide a significant challenge for conducting air operations within 100 nm of the city. In addition they are known to have YJ-12 and C-802 launchers near the city, so be wary of these land based threats
> *Mission*
> Sink as many ships and submarines as possible. Attack radars and coastal installations in order to support naval operations.
> 
> *6. Shoreline (Played as Pakistan)*
> Four days ago Indian Naval Forces undertook a vast operation to degrade Pakistani naval and coastline capabilities and achieved high levels of success. Almost the entirety of the Pakistani Navy was sunk, either in the seas near Karachi, or at their moorings in the city. In addition, large numbers of Pakistani naval aircraft were destroyed, as were SSMs.
> In a desperate plea, Pakistan acquired a number of old Chinese aircraft(JH-7A) to supplement their dwindling air force. China has changed stances and has discouraged India from further offensive action, leading to speculation that China may soon support Pakistan outright. China has increased their naval presence in the Arabian Sea, and is stepping up air patrols along the border.
> The United States is still closely monitoring the situation and has a strong naval force in the region.
> 
> *Situation*
> India has achieved almost complete control of the sea and is closing in on Karachi and Hyderabad on land, the situation is nearing desperate. China has increased their support, especially as far as material is concerned, but a strong victory is needed to stem the Indian advance and give the diplomats some leverage to get the Chinese involved.
> 
> *Mission*
> Using all available aircraft and naval forces, locate and destroy the Indian carrier task force operating in the Arabian Sea. It is unknown how much longer the ships will be at sea due to their low munitions state, they will likely return to port within a few days to resupply. It is critical that they are destroyed before this, otherwise their defenses will be too powerful for remaining friendly forces.
> _(Simple enough if albeit a difficult task to avoid losses)_
> 
> * 7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)*
> The Indo-Pakistani War has stunned the world. The speed at which Indian forces have advanced towards major Pakistani cities has surprised many foreign observers, but the losses both sides have taken is staggering. Pakistan is near the brink of defeat, and has pleaded for foreign assistance to China as well as other Muslim countries. China announced it was sending an expeditionary force to Pakistan to “protect the interests of the Chinese People and maintain security for Chinese assets abroad”.
> Saudi Arabia(F-15SAs) and Indonesia(Su-30s and thank you @Indos ) also answered the call of Pakistan, sending forces to protect major Pakistani targets. Open conflict between China and India doesn’t seem near, however the world is fearful of the possibility. Pakistan will likely try to lead a new counterattack against Indian forces, but they need to stem the flow of Indian forces and supplies to the front line first.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are still on the doorstep of multiple major cities, and they need to be turned back immediately. With the support of the Saudis, Indonesians, and Chinese, ground forces should be able to rally and start to push back. In order to give this counteroffensive a boost, strong interdiction efforts must be undertaken to isolate Indian frontline forces.
> 
> *Mission*
> Multiple targets across Eastern Pakistan and Northwest India have been identified as critical to Indian supply efforts. Attacking and eliminating these targets is the primary focus of the next 12 hours. In addition, artillery has been shelling the outskirts of Karachi and Mianwali, these batteries need to be eliminated. MANPADS and SHORAD are to be expected around all targets.
> (Mostly air ops that make good work of Indian forces if played smartly)
> 
> *8. Flaming Dragon (Played as India)*
> The Pakistani counterattack against Indian forces has been broadly successful, and some of the pressure on the Pakistani civilian population has been reduced. China is no longer disguising its involvement, and has sent aircraft and material to support the Pakistanis. In addition both Chinese aircraft carriers have left port and are enroute to the Indian theater to open an air front on the eastern half of the country. Indian naval forces are not in any position to resist major Chinese naval operations, causing fears of a blockade of India.
> India has looked for foreign assistance, but none have come to their aid. Many western countries have sharply criticized the Chinese intervention, but none have taken forceful measures. The United States announced that the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group would be deployed to the region to continue to protect maritime trade and safe passage. They will support the currently deployed Kennedy Strike Group.
> 
> *Situation*
> China has directly attacked Indian forces from Pakistani airbases, which has propelled open conflict between the two counties. Their Pakistani and Chinese forces are expected to continue major offensive operations across the front, as well as conducting naval operations off the west coast of India. China has deployed their carriers, but they are a few days away.
> *Mission*
> Conduct operations to defend Indian airspace and airbases. Enemy forces are concentrated in the northern half of Pakistan, so if possible conducting offensive operations in the southern half is a secondary objective. Degrading the enemy’s ability to conduct air operations is paramount. Attacking SAM sites is the priority for any ground strikes made.
> 
> _(Very Difficult - almost impossible to finish without heavy losses to Indian Forces)_
> 
> *9. Peacekeepers (Played as USA)*
> In the last week, Pakistani and Chinese land forces have advanced over 250 kilometers, moving the frontline from well inside Pakistan to between 40 and 70 kilometers into India(quite a big chunk actually.. Ghazwa e Hind fantasies for some here abound) Chinese armor and aircraft are causing incredible damage and disruption to Indian forces, and allowing the remaining Pakistani forces to capitalize. With the stunning advance, many Western observers fear India is in danger of losing the war. American forces have closed in near the shore to display their presence, and an expeditionary strike group has deployed to the area.
> The United States has ordered all of its civilians in India to return to the United States, however India closed their major international airports, stranding hundreds of Americans in the war torn country.
> *Situation*
> American civilians are stranded across western India, and with Pakistani and Chinese forces closing, they need to be evacuated. Pakistan has declared that any aircraft flying over India will be declared hostile and engaged by Pakistani forces.(Oh sure, Pakistanis really are that dumb... )
> In addition, India is limiting their air operations in order to preserve aircraft. There will be air combat along the frontlines, but Pakistan owns the airspace. American embassy staff have negotiated with Indian officials, and the Indian government will allow American overflights of both transport and combat aircraft to evacuate American civilians.
> *Mission*
> Recover all Americans stranded in the country who have identified themselves. The majority are in Mumbai and New Delhi, however there are civilians located in Ahmedabad, Surat, Pune, and Dwarka as well. These should be recovered with aircraft from the Tripoli ESG.
> There are also aircraft located at international airports in New Delhi and Mumbai. They have received special clearance to depart with American civilians onboard. They already have flight plans, however these can be adjusted. Ensuring these aircraft arrive in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok safely is critical.
> _(Basically, the US allies with India and starts attacking Pakistani/Chinese forces)_
> 
> *10. Crackdown(Played as USA)*
> It took little more than a month for the Pakistan-India conflict to erupt into a war involving superpowers, now the intense regional conflict has sparked global involvement. The United States successfully evacuated their civilians from the conflict zone, but not without resistance. Pakistan fully enforced their no fly zone and the United States had to fight their way in to rescue their citizens. Pakistan was quick to criticize the United States “reckless aggression and blatant intervention”. The United States fired back stating it was “defending its citizens abroad against the reckless warfare being conducted by Pakistan”.
> This incident was enough to spark conflict between the United States and Pakistan. The day after the evacuation, a Pakistani gunboat sailed within 500 meters of the USS Pickney, an American destroyer operating about 100nm off the Pakistani Coast. It is unclear who fired first, but the Pickney sank the gunboat, and all Pakistanis onboard were killed. Pakistan declared that it would “fire on any American forces without hesitation” in response.
> Due to the increased tensions with the United States, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have withdrawn support from Pakistan_( Who wouldnt??)_
> 
> *Situation*
> Yesterday Pakistan announced that they would openly fire on American assets. The events of the last few days have convinced congress and the president that military action against Pakistan is in the best interest of the American people, and immediate strikes have been ordered. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is a week out, but the Kennedy Strike Group and Tripoli Expeditionary Strike Group are capable of handling the current threats.
> China has so far declined to make a statement, but they should be treated with extreme caution.
> *Mission*
> Degrade Pakistani electricity production and infrastructure, as well as nuclear research and production facilities. Ensure that further operations are smooth by damaging Pakistani IADS as well._ ( Generally easy if proper joint ops along with well prepared strike packages are used)_
> 
> *11. Escalation (Played as USA)*
> A week after the United States formally intervened against Pakistan, India has stemmed the advance of Pakistani forces and the frontline has settled. China has deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups to put additional pressure on Indian forces, and the United States has responded by bringing the Abraham Lincoln strike group to the theater.
> China stated that it would engage any American aircraft attacking Pakistani targets, which has led to a slight lull in American air operations as brass and politicians weigh their options. Last night, the US congress passed a secret vote, and today the results of that vote will be seen.
> *Situation*
> Last night congress voted for American forces to establish sea control off the coast of India so that full support of India can begin. This includes taking action against Chinese forces. The Abraham Lincoln Strike Group is on the southern end of the Indian subcontinent, and the JFK Strike Group just refueled and resupplied from sealift command vessels.
> *Mission*
> Degrade and destroy Pakistani and Chinese naval and coastal assets. Subsurface assets and aviation are a primary consideration, along with the offshore patrol group operating near Karachi. Preservation of American assets is critical.
> In addition, safe passage of American supply ships back to Qatar_(Et tu - Brutus??!) _is an essential objective. Protect these ships well.
> _(Basically beat the crap out of Pakistani and Chinese forces and help India)_
> 
> *12. Thunder From The Sea (Played as India)*
> Pakistan and China have been halted on the ground, and the Indian military can catch its breath. The majority of the forces engaged are in the Kashmir region and surrounding areas, however the south has been the most dynamic theater. India, with the help of the United States, is pushing hard to attempt to isolate Pakistan from the sea. The major Indo-American victory at sea last week has made this goal a very real possibility.
> Pakistan has mined the waters off of Karachi in order to prevent American and Indian shipping from threatening the shore.
> India has ambitious plans(_always have) _for the future of the conflict, and today those plans will begin to unfold.
> *Situation*
> The Sino-Pakistani advance has been halted, leading to the potential for a large-scale counter-offensive. High Command has decided that the opportunity should be seized and an amphibious front should be opened against the city of Karachi. Capturing the city quickly would allow for a steady flow of reinforcements by sea to the area, and would cause serious logistics difficulties to Pakistan.
> *Mission*
> Using amphibious and airborne assets, capture the city of Karachi_(Good luck surviving that hell!)._ The Pakistanis are likely unsuspecting of such a bold operation, and intelligence suggests that they could be taken completely off guard.
> 
> *13. Over The Hump (Played as India)*
> 
> The United States’ involvement in the Indo-Pakistani conflict has completely shifted the tide of the conflict in favor of the Indians. After the successful landing at Karachi, Pakistan’s major lifeline to the sea is gone. Ground fighting is intense, and neither side is conceding an inch of land. India is pushing into Pakistan, but it is at high cost to both sides.
> 
> China has stepped up its involvement immensely on the ground, and is keeping Pakistan reinforced through intense air commitment and airstrikes against the Indian forces. The area around PAF Mianwali and PAF Murid is the most heavily defended airspace in the world, thanks in large part to the Chinese IADS and CAP. India is going to struggle to crack the tough shell that has become the greater Islamabad area.
> *Situation*
> In anticipation for the upcoming offensive against the Sino-Pakistani stronghold in northern Pakistan, a strike must be made at their logistics. The Chinese are running most of their supplies through three airports in the Eastern Himalayas, which allows them a consistent stream of resupply over the mountains to their troops on the ground. Striking at these airbases and eliminating their ability to be used as a pitstop is critical to the upcoming operations success.
> *Mission*
> Destroy the AvGas facilities located at Xigaze East Airstrip, Lhasa Gonggar International Airport, and Nyingchi Airport.
> Destroy all transport aircraft located at these bases.
> Intercept and destroy the bombers flying into Lhasa Gonggar Intl.
> _(Basically, what India's contingency planners were hoping never having to do over Aksai Chin)_
> 
> *14. Falling Sky(played as Indo-US coalition, Tulsi Gabbard would be proud)*
> 
> In the last month, Indian forces have pushed Pakistan back to the outskirts of Islamabad. China and Pakistan have fortified the airspace heavily in the area, with an intense IADS and combat air patrol net. The Indo-American coalition has strangled the Pakistani capital, but Pakistan is not backing down.
> American forces still have stayed off the ground, despite Indian efforts to receive support on the ground. Despite not deploying boots on the ground, the United States has launched an intense air campaign against the Pakistani and Chinese forces. The Indo-American coalition is preparing for an incredible air offensive against the stronghold of Islamabad, which will prove to be a very difficult task.
> 
> *Situation*
> Indian forces are preparing to launch a major ground offensive against fortified Pakistani positions in the Greater Islamabad area. In order for this to succeed, the coalition must achieve complete air superiority. Australia has recently deployed aircraft to assist in the coalition, and there is hope that more nations will join in on this final push.
> *Mission*
> Destroy and degrade the IADS in the Greater Islamabad area. Degrade enemy combat aircraft and air fighting ability. Destroy C3M, SIGINT, and communications bunkers.
> _(A lot of combined air ops which can be fun mixing in MKI's and F-35s)_
> 
> *15. Race Against The Clock*
> Indian forces are closing in rapidly on the last holdouts of Pakistani resistance. The fighting has been brutal, with thousands of casualties on both sides. China has withdrawn the majority of their forces, however aircraft are still based at Pakistani airbases to support the dwindling Pakistani Army.
> The war is nearing a close, with a clear Indian victory in sight. Pakistan has stated that they will fight to the end through whatever means necessary, including a nuclear option. Every world power has strongly denounced this option and the United Nations are frantically attempting peace negotiations, but neither India nor Pakistan are interested in anything short of complete victory.
> *Situation*
> Intelligence has intercepted Pakistani orders stating that a full scale last ditch nuclear attack against India is likely to take place within the next few hours. All aircraft are to be diverted to eliminate all launchers immediately.
> *Mission*
> Eliminate all Hatf 6 and Hatf 7 launchers or intercept all inbound nuclear strikes
> 
> 
> And essentially that is that - rather good start turned to usual gung ho ops but also has some realistic base into where the alliances are drawn. The assumption however that the nuclear threshold is right near Islamabad's loss is in my view a glaring mistake along with several others in terms of how the conflict would escalate. However, one thing is very clear that the Saudi-Indonesia support may not be coming at all. If anything, the Chinese may send aircraft and retired pilots as the resources dwindle but I don't foresee it going beyond 3 weeks and especially that Mountain alliance (some ambulation of PTM, TTP, FC and who?) isn't likely at all but a good thought to understand how the assumption to degrade Pakistan lies.


I fee my time wasted on reading it ...


HRK said:


> The Game is Much Bigger than a Country or Few Countries, and because of this _*a Full Scale war in South Asia is THE NEED to reshape the not just the south Asian Region but to Reshape the future of Asia .....*_
> 
> IF China is need to be stopped in its track of progress it is necessary to cut it from the sources of Energy and Raw Material for its industrial growth as well as from the Consumer Markets.
> 
> Therefore it is a need to create a Super STATE in South Asia which could interfere in the Middle East, Central Asia and could provide a sizeable Market for Western Products.
> 
> It is the *NEED OF WESTERN WORLD* to reshape Middle East and South Asia for their continuous Imperialism.
> 
> Following is one of the target of the designed future.
> 
> View attachment 743819


On what basis Pukhtoon Majority Area is shown as part of Indian Confederation...? When we see someone who is selfish and miser, we call him a Hindu...In Pashtun culture, to call someone a Hindu is a hair-raising insult.


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## SQ8

The Eagle said:


> Most of S-400 are deployed deep inside for protection of high value sites/equipment. For S-400 they will be or even deployed more defence. A nice run and can be treated as a controlled & well planned onslaught similar to 27th Feb, 2019. It appears to be same kind of response after instigation at first (read Brahmos strike preparation Intel). Whether it was realistic or not but it tells a bit of change in tactics can keep you ahead of enemy.
> 
> UAV/UCAV with EW/Attack capability is something that one will not be worried about as compare to a manned A/C. In the meantime, Manned assets will be taking care of opposing manned assets as well. IN all and all; this is more about EW/ECM/UCAV/UAVs and that simulation pretty much presents the idea to have such quality/capability with experience and command on system. The other side will definitely be applying everything in the mix and there, ground intel/AI will play a major role.
> 
> @SQ8 First of all thank you for an interesting & a good learning by simulation at-least. A quick question: Did SIM consider all of AD capability of Indian side and deploys the same during simulation? I mean from Aerial assets to Ground capability.


It takes into account everything including communications links(which can be jammed too). However, it also relies on the user to set these rules(which are aplenty) for the AI on how to behave. So that HQ-9 barrage could se set to engage with only 1 missile per target - or the S-400 could be forced to engage beyond “practical range” as well. It really does have a lot of depth but it also requires a lot of patience to make it work well.


CriticalThought said:


> Yo @SQ8 my man!!! Get that Audi out, pick up some supplies, and go cruising into the wild man. There ain't gonna be no war in the next hundred years dude!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “We are not seeking hostility with India for the next 100 years" pakistan's New security policy seeks ‘peace’ with India
> 
> 
> ISLAMABAD: Peace with immediate neighbours and economic diplomacy will be the central theme of the country’s foreign policy in the new National Security Policy, scheduled to be unveiled on Friday. The original 100-page policy, which would be kept under wraps, leaves the door open for trade and...
> 
> 
> 
> defence.pk


Amen to that - technically there isn’t one happening between the UK & France but this has a neat scenario for it


VkdIndian said:


> Wouldn’t Indian side getting SA from their AEWs? What about Indian radars positioned at higher altitudes that give them some look at lower altitudes into Pakistan? Any consideration to Sihala based HQ9 may be a high value target for Indian side and they might try to neutralise these first? If these were factored in then India should be already throwing-in the towel.


They do - please re-read the scenario, the idea that India is expecting something but not a pre-emptive to their pre-emptive. My contention with this result is that it is staged as a Pakistani surprise where in case this was a rolling war with Indian attacks ongoing the outcome (and even plan) would be wholly different.
As a start - can Pakistan commit nearly 60 assets to a singular objective?

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## HRK

Sage said:


> On what basis Pukhtoon Majority Area is shown as part of Indian Confederation...? When we see someone who is selfish and miser, we call him a Hindu...In Pashtun culture, to call someone a Hindu is a hair-raising insult.


this question is suitable for the person or group of the people who draw this mape, I could not answer this.


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## m52k85

SQ8 said:


> *My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.


What if you take the UAV jammers out? Standoff jamming by UAVs sounds like a stretch itself in the coming year or two.

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## SQ8

m52k85 said:


> What if you take the UAV jammers out? Standoff jamming by UAVs sounds like a stretch itself in the coming year or two.


That S-400 does massacre a lot of the strike force without effective jamming.

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## Sage

HRK said:


> this question is suitable for the person or group of the people who draw this mape, I could not answer this.


I did not ask you ...my question was directed at the pseudo-intellectual who drew the map....

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## m52k85

SQ8 said:


> That S-400 does massacre a lot of the strike force without effective jamming.


Much like the HQ-9 did to their CAP formations. The take away for me then is the need to stand-off jam unless you have a 5th gen strike force (similar learning from the 2 scenarios HypOps compared on youtube with the S400).

However, I dont see how Anka based jammers can do what US and China felt was to be done through heavy weight F-18/ J-16 based platforms. Infact, we havent seen Growlers and J-16 carry munitions with their jamming equipment, implying its a really heavy duty task, i.e. stand-off jamming.


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## SQ8

m52k85 said:


> Much like the HQ-9 did to their CAP formations. The take away for me then is the need to stand-off jam unless you have a 5th gen strike force (similar learning from the 2 scenarios HypOps compared on youtube with the S400).
> 
> However, I dont see how Anka based jammers can do what US and China felt was to be done through heavy weight F-18/ J-16 based platforms. Infact, we havent seen Growlers and J-16 carry munitions with their jamming equipment, implying its a really heavy duty task, i.e. stand-off jamming.


Likely because UAVs can get in close into that detection net but importantly closer into the targeting net.

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## kursed

So, I don't think that we'd compare the actions of Feb 26th and 27th as a benchmark for any such future events. Both PAF and IAF seem to have worked out the kinks, in terms of understanding of the other and in terms of responses.

So both sides will be bringing different rabbits out of their hats when they face off again. What we 'can' anticipate in any such short and hot exchange in the future are cross-border BVR shots and SAM shots, I genuinely believe that this is where EW will set the stage before any kinetic action takes place.

The party that can dissuade or even resist the other, just enough in terms of EW, will be able to get more shots across and on target. It does not mean that nothing will fly, it does not mean that both sides will not take losses, but that capability degradation achieved via EW will be one of the first targets.

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## Pak Nationalist

SQ8 said:


> tagging those who requested/liked the idea @kursed @JamD @_NOBODY_ @HRK @PWFI @AMG_12 @The Eagle @PanzerKiel
> *The Brahmos Gambit: *
> Playing on the scenario requested - India is planning a pre-emptive Brahmos strike on Pakistani installations after a militant attack following by India launching an abortive airstrike towards Pakistan.
> The threat is credible enough that a combined strike against the Halwara depot has been authorized and assets put into play.
> It is expected that the India strike will commence at midnight for which they are going to start to move their Brahmos assets.
> There are 3 bunkers at Halwara which are storage facilities - some Brahmos have already been deployed to a launch site close to the border while others are on the move to pre=prepared locations but their movement is unknown.
> In a semblance of cover India has CAPs patrolling including flights of MKIs, UPGs and Rafale's with AEW support from Netras.
> Adampur houses the S-400 which is the primary threat for any strike group and must be removed - it is protected by Sa-3s and close in by Iglas.
> Halwara is protected by SPYDER systems
> 
> In return Pakistan will be launching a combined manned/unmanned offensive against India using:
> 
> 3 x Anka EW UAVs - 2 focused towards Adampur and the S-400 site.
> 1x Anka EW already patrolling near Lahore
> 1x Anka ELINT already patrolling near Lahore
> 2 x Wingloong ELINT at high altitude,
> 2x WIngloong HJ-10 ATGM for Anti-Brahmos activity at low altitude
> 4 x Falco UAVs for surveillance and to act as decoys
> 4 TB-2 UAVs for offensive against Adampur and Halwara
> 4x Burraq against any border radar/sam systems
> 
> 1x IL-78 Midas for AAR
> 1 x Saab 2000 for AEW out of range of S-400 at Adampur.
> 
> 2 J-10Cs fighter sweep for Adampur (sargodha)
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with SEAD loadout for Adampur Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 2 JF-17 Block-3s with PL-15 escort of for Adampur SEAD
> 
> 2 JF-17 Block-2s with SEAD loadout for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 4 JF-17 Block-2 escort for Halwara (Rafiqui)
> 3x2 flights of Mirages with H-4 with 1 Mirage-III for guidance against 2 bunkers (Rafiqui)
> 2 x JF-17 Block-2 armed with REK for S-400 (Kamra) - will refuel from Il-78
> 4 x J-10C fighter sweep for Halwara (sargodha)
> 
> 4 F-16s for a low level Ambush CAP within Pakistani territory (sargodha)
> 1x Falcon 20 to provide stand off ECM.
> 
> 2 JF-17s from Peshawar are conducting a CAP near Islamabad
> 
> 2 Ground based ELINT sensors will try to locate Indian emitters.
> 
> Pakistan LRSAMs are HQ-9Bs near Gujranwala and at the Sihala site.
> 
> India will not engage aircraft until Pakistan breaches airspace - Pakistan will not engage until a Pakistan asset is threatened.
> 
> Local time PST is around 1800 hours at start of mission so dusk takeoffs for first assets
> 
> 1810: First flight of longer ranged UAVs(wing loong, Ankas, TB2s) start taking off from Murid heading towards the border. Indian AEW picks up the Wing loongs and 1 Anka.
> 
> View attachment 807940
> 
> 
> The UAV's continue to proceed until 1900 hours where near Rahwali the flight of Falco UAVs takes off and starts heading towards the border as well.
> The Kamra based JF-17s have taken off and will meet the il-78 near Kallar Kahar.
> Joining at are the flight of Burraq from Rahwali as well. They are visibile to the Indian side so a triggerred reinforcement of the CAP takes off from Ambala of 2 x Rafale Cs armed with Meteors and MICAs
> 
> View attachment 807941
> 
> 
> At 2000 hours the Strike packages start taking off from Rafiqui along with the Escort and Ambush CAP - and by 2030 hours the first UAVs are crossing the border.
> They are picked up by Indian systems and the S-400 starts to engage with full force along with Indian fighters. At this time however the Ankas start jamming making it difficult for the Mig-29 CAP to engage.
> Because the Pakistani assets were engaged - The HQ-9 start spitting out missiles at pretty much every Indian aircraft in the air- they are forced defensive and take losses while the higher flying ELINT and SURVEILLANCE wingloongs along with 2 Falcos are lost.
> 
> At the end of the first SAM Barrage from the Gujranwala HQ-9 site all but 1 Rafale of the Original Indian CAP remains.
> 
> View attachment 807942
> 
> 
> 2100 hours:
> 1 MirageV of the strike group and a F-16AM on CAP is lost to a S-400,
> The Indian ADGE however is getting badly jammed as the Pakistani UAVs move in.
> 
> View attachment 807943
> 
> 
> 2120 hours:
> As the Pakistani manned strike rolls in and launches its weapons the UAVs head into attacking both targets of opportunity and Indian ADGE.
> ARMs take out the radars of the S-400 and other SAM systems until the JF-17 with REKs takes out the entire site. Indian interceptors are still raring to take off from Pathankot, Ambala and Halwara as well.
> 
> The Jamming is keeping most Indian SAMs from engaging other than SPYDERs which bring down TB2s and 1 Anka ECM unit.
> Meanwhile as the first H-4s start arriving at the Halwara bunkers and the S-400 site has been pretty much flattened while the Burraqs kill the Brahmos TELs at the prepared site.
> 
> View attachment 807944
> 
> 
> 2130 Hours - PAF J-10s are now operating within Indian airspace and establish air superiority. PAF AEW is not flying closer to the border - Rafale Cs arriving in from Ambala engage PAF J-10s with Meteors but are quickly brought down.
> UAVs are still being lost to MANPADS with 2 Burraqs brought down. Meanwhile a Falco picks out a convoy of Brahmos launchers in the outskirts of Halwara and the Wingloongs are tasked with taking it out.
> 
> 
> View attachment 807945
> 
> 
> Indian interceptors taking off are brought down rapidly by the J-10s while the Sirsa flight has to contend with PAF F-16 CAPs and HQ-9Bs. Pathankot flight of Mig-21s falls to JF-17s escorting.
> by 2200 hours The Bunkers at halwara were 70% damaged which was the primary target, S-400 site was neutralized and Brahmos launchers on the Move or deployed were destroyed.
> 
> At this point I ended the simulation:
> 
> India Losses:
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 4x Brahmos Blk I [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 5x Brahmos Blk III [Land-Attack] [Cargo]
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC - _No idea when this was taken out as I did not even notice it during the more intense part of the sim._
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison] (Pathankot Interceptors)
> 2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A (original CAP)
> 1x Radar (Master-T)
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 1x Radar (Tin Shield A [5N59])
> 4x Rafale C (2 from original CAP and 2 from Ambala interceptors)
> 3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 8x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 4x Su-30MKI Flanker H (Halwara Interceptors)
> 4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (Sirsa Interceptors)
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H (original CAP)
> 1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Grave Stone [92N2]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Low Blow [SNR-125]) [Cargo]
> 1x Vehicle (Straight Flush [1S91]) [Cargo]
> 
> Expenditures:
> ------------------
> 12x 1250 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 1500 liter Drop Tank
> 2x 800 liter Drop Tank
> 8x Derby [SPYDER-MR]
> 25x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 3x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 6x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
> 21x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
> 7x Python 5 [SPYDER-MR]
> 12x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
> 6x SA-3b Goa [5V27, V-601P]
> 
> 
> Pakistan Losses:
> -------------------------------
> 2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 1x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 4x Falco UAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 1x GJ-2 Wing Loong II ELINT UCAV
> 1x Anka-I ECM Mod UAV [Star]
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 1x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV
> 
> EXPENDITURES:
> ------------------
> 4x 23mm Type 23-3 Burst [40 rnds]
> 2x AIM-9P-4 Sidewinder (apparently 1 MKI taking off was brought down by a guiding Mirage-IIIEL who stuck around for god knows what reason)
> 8x Barq ATGM
> 5x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
> 2x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
> 4x H-4 SOW [Raptor 2]
> 7x HJ-10 ATGM
> 33x HQ-9B
> 11x LS-6-500 Extended-Range Bomb, GPS/INS [500kg HE]
> 12x MAR-1 [ARM]
> 4x PL-10
> 9x PL-15
> 2x PL-9
> 
> *My thoughts; *Surprised at how effective the IAV jammers were and how they truly did make that entire ADGE weep. However, The handicap for the Indian side is that they are not expecting an offensive. The tables might be different if the Indian side is opening the salvos with the S-400 before Jammers are within range.



Are Rafale's towed decoys taken into consideration? It is surprising to see such high levels of attrition being taken by Rafales. On the other hand, they were not able to inflict significant losses on the elements of PAF operating within Indian airspace.


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## SQ8

Pak Nationalist said:


> Are Rafale's towed decoys taken into consideration? It is surprising to see such high levels of attrition directed at rafales. On the other hand, they were not able to inflict significant losses on the elements of PAF operating within Indian airspace.
> 
> I understand that we are just wargaming, but this simulation is a bit far from the politics of the day. I do not think Pakistan will conduct preemptive strikes regardless of the airtightness of the intelligence, given our standing with the world. Secondly, such an offensive would give Carte Blanche to the Indian state to wage a limited war with little global condemnation. Given our economic constraints, we would not go that route.


Yes - they have towed decoys as well. The scenario is specifically looking at a surprise hit at India with a lot of the advantages that come with it including a Pakistan tilted EW environment.

The other aspects have been highlighted by @PanzerKiel in terms of weapon expenditure and reload. Bear in mind the HQ-9 TEL is simulated with 8TELs, but if the deployment is with 4 TELs then the equation shifts as well.

The Indian aircraft were facing a combined SAM and AAM barrage by Pakistani forces and were technically outnumbered in the air - what if they kept a high CAP tempo throughout before the Brahmos strike?(although that would give them away as planning something big anyway).I will change a few things and repost which I know will change the equation quite a bit.

As for the offensive, the earlier scenario I posted talks about the carte blanche but at the end it won’t be completely “free for all”. Because at the end if anything happens to the point where it heads towards nuclear in the subcontinent this is what world faces in terms of radiation.

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## SQ8

Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs

F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.

*Result:*
The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.

The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.

The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.








LOSSES:
-------------------------------
SIDE: India
===========================================================
1x EMB-145I AEWC
2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
3x Rafale C
3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]


SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
1x Falco UAV
2x ANKA EW
3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV

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## VkdIndian

@SQ8 thanks for running the simulation again. However, it raised one more question.
There isn’t any UAV losses from Indian side. Is it because they don’t have any or some other reason? If they also employ UAVs for jamming, SEAD and DEAD their could be more twist to the tale.

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## Titanium100

This is all dandy and sweet but to far fatched..

War is unpredictable and it comes down to the cunningness of the generals specifically at this stage where there is parity and where the parity will be continued for decades to come..

If the last remnants of the Indians are holding out in Tamil Nadu we will be there dugging it out with them until there is one winner left


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## SQ8

VkdIndian said:


> @SQ8 thanks for running the simulation again. However, it raised one more question.
> There isn’t any UAV losses from Indian side. Is it because they don’t have any or some other reason? If they also employ UAVs for jamming, SEAD and DEAD their could be more twist to the tale.


I havent given them any assuming this is a Pakistani side push - I am curious as to doing the same but from an Indian perspective. 

What assets does India have to use here? - I am only aware of the Searcher IIs

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## HRK

SQ8 said:


> 2x Hermes 900 UAV [Star]



thing as far I know Hermes 900 is not with IA army or airforce as of now, secondly if it is included then plz also mention in which role it was performing with IAF/IA

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## SQ8

HRK said:


> thing as far I know Hermes 900 is not with IA army or airforce as of now, secondly if it is included then plz also mention in which role it was performing with IAF/IA


Corrected - Using them to simulate ANKA EW

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## Titanium100

SQ8 said:


> I havent given them any assuming this is a Pakistani side push



More like American perspective


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## VkdIndian

SQ8 said:


> What assets does India have to use here? - I am only aware of the Searcher IIs


Google search brought out these links - https://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories1369_Unmanned_Aerial_Vehicle.htm









Heron, Searcher, Sea Guardian, SWITCH — the many UAVs that make up India's drone arsenal


UAVs are not just meant for long range surveillance but also for carrying out precision strikes. ThePrint gives you a roundup of the various drones in India's unmanned aerial squadrons.




theprint.in





These links talk of Harop and Harpy which are anti-radiation as well as targeting drones.
MQ9b are already on lease and more likely to be inducted. Don’t know how effective they would be in the scenario painted by you.

If Harop/Harpy are what is claimed about them, then it could prove to be a significant asset that an adversary can’t ignore.

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## SQ8

VkdIndian said:


> Google search brought out these links - https://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories1369_Unmanned_Aerial_Vehicle.htm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Heron, Searcher, Sea Guardian, SWITCH — the many UAVs that make up India's drone arsenal
> 
> 
> UAVs are not just meant for long range surveillance but also for carrying out precision strikes. ThePrint gives you a roundup of the various drones in India's unmanned aerial squadrons.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theprint.in
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> These links talk of Harop and Harpy which are anti-radiation as well as targeting drones.
> MQ9b are already on lease and more likely to be inducted. Don’t know how effective they would be in the scenario painted by you.
> 
> If Harop/Harpy are what is claimed about them, then it could prove to be a significant asset that an adversary can’t ignore.


Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike.

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## VkdIndian

SQ8 said:


> Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike.


It would definitely give a new and different perspective. 

There is one more possibility though. It is possible that it all starts with a little skirmish and escalate over a period of time wherein both the sides are fully ready. All the guards are up. Assets are deployed. This can lead to dispersing of forces making the task difficult for the opposing side. Surveillance would have gone up giving both sides a better look at latest deployments. Radars even mobile ones can’t remain hidden due to thier very nature of making radar noise giving away their positions. But mobile weapon systems based on passive guidance may be a different ball game. 

If the situation flares up now - 
- HQ9/S400 are likely to be the most sought after targets for both. Both countries are likely to deploy significant efforts to neutralise these. Surveillance would have given the exact location of these to both the sides. 
- All the airfields would be major targets. Successful attack on weapon storage and fuel storage at military airfields were always the primary focus. 
- Air and ground launched Brahmos could give a significant edge to IAF. Aircraft launching these wouldn’t need to come closer than 200-250 Km from the border giving them relative safety.
- Surface launched Brahmos can be launched from mobile launchers hard to detect and neutralise. Even their missiles also may have been moved out of weapon storage areas which would have been the first few targets in a pre-emotive scenario.

These simulations do have AI built into them but are these factored in? I don’t know.

Thanks @SQ8.

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## SQ8

VkdIndian said:


> It would give it a new and different perspective. Thanks.


Where would you place a second S-400 battery assuming the one I placed at Adampur actually turns out to be the location?

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## PurpleButcher

These are the topics for which I became a member of pdf!

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## VkdIndian

SQ8 said:


> Where would you place a second S-400 battery assuming the one I placed at Adampur actually turns out to be the location?


Adampur one gives a good cover to areas around and behind it. Ideally there should be an overlap between two adjacent batteries. That too not considering max range of 400 kms. 150kms south of Adampur sounds ok to me. But that would mean all the systems would be consumed on the western border, which leaves East and north vulnerable to China. 
Considering that it is a mobile system, a broad consideration of two S400 in general area of Punjab and Haryana might work for the scenario. Exact location may not mean much.
For simulation 1battery 150km south of Adampur and 1 in Gujrat can be tried.

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## m52k85

SQ8 said:


> Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
> Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
> Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
> HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs
> 
> F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.
> 
> *Result:*
> The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
> The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.
> 
> The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
> However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
> Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.
> 
> The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.
> 
> 
> View attachment 808252
> 
> 
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> SIDE: India
> ===========================================================
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 3x Rafale C
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 
> 
> SIDE: Pakistan
> ===========================================================
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
> 1x Falco UAV
> 2x ANKA EW
> 3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV


Thanks! Could you possibly upload a video, since doing a long post (like the first Brahmos Gamit) I assume is time consuming. No need to add text commentary to the video as well, since we are requesting so many scenarios from you.

In the video, if you can just keep hovering with your mouse on the place where the action is taking place, that should give us enough understanding as to how it plays out.


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## JamD

@SQ8 In the plethora of requests here's one more. I'd be quite happy with a 3 sentence description of the results from you.

I want to know how a purely UCAV attack would fare. I'm thinking that PA (independent of PAF) decides to take a target out and launches CH4B and burraq. Maybe 2 CH4B (EW) and 6 Burraqs (x2 Barq). Does this even work at all or is it just swatted out of the sky like bugs?

And then roughly the same scenario with the roles reversed between India and Pakistan.

I'm wondering about this specifically because huge joint operations take a lot of coordination. Maybe PA going at it alone is a more realistic scenario depicting how PA will use UCAVs

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## Reichsmarschall

m52k85 said:


> Thanks! Could you possibly upload a video, since doing a long post (like the first Brahmos Gamit) I assume is time consuming. No need to add text commentary to the video as well, since we are requesting so many scenarios from you.
> 
> In the video, if you can just keep hovering with your mouse on the place where the action is taking place, that should give us enough understanding as to how it plays out.


Actually i quite enjoy his commentary. It helps us layman to better understand the whole situation

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## untitled

SQ8 said:


> Lets flip it around and make it an Indian surprise focused on destroying Pakistani AD before launching a combined Brahmos/ Air Strike


An attack on Karachi port and surrounding air bases would be interesting. As we have been told our Northern flank is relatively secure

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## m52k85

Reichsmarschall said:


> Actually i quite enjoy his commentary. It helps us layman to better understand the whole situation


Yes I agree, but we can only ask him to put so much time into it.

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
> Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
> Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
> HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs
> 
> F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.
> 
> *Result:*
> The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
> The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.
> 
> The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
> However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
> Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.
> 
> The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.
> 
> 
> View attachment 808252
> 
> 
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> SIDE: India
> ===========================================================
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 3x Rafale C
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 
> 
> SIDE: Pakistan
> ===========================================================
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
> 1x Falco UAV
> 2x ANKA EW
> 3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV


Some food for thought....
..throughout this whole simulation, the big assets....HQ-9 and S400 remain in being....if by chance (i mean indirect approach) HQ-9 or S-400 gets neutralized or disabled, the big advantage other side will have is for everyone to see. You remove either one of them from the equation....then it could get a one-sided match....just one asset, located at one precise location, waiting for....

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## m52k85

SQ8 said:


> Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
> Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
> Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
> HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs
> 
> F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.
> 
> *Result:*
> The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
> The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.
> 
> The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
> However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
> Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.
> 
> The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.
> 
> 
> View attachment 808252
> 
> 
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> SIDE: India
> ===========================================================
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 3x Rafale C
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 
> 
> SIDE: Pakistan
> ===========================================================
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
> 1x Falco UAV
> 2x ANKA EW
> 3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV


So, even though the IAF faced heavy losses (all initial CAPs and all subsequent interceptors), PAF faced significant losses (3 out of 6 J-10s, 3 out of 10 Blk-IIs and all F-16s 4 of 4), but importantly the primary objective was not met i.e. no Brahmos losses.

Hope, I summarized it right. (That video will help).

Edit: It seems the SEAD Jf-17s meant for Adampur mostly survived, did their ARMs not find the S-400 radars?

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## Pak Nationalist

JamD said:


> We might be facing these




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1481618641015930883 watch after 1:45. Are these the same drones or something new?

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## SQ8

m52k85 said:


> So, even though the IAF faced heavy losses (all initial CAPs and all subsequent interceptors), PAF faced significant losses (3 out of 6 J-10s, 3 out of 10 Blk-IIs and all F-16s 4 of 4), but importantly the primary objective was not met i.e. no Brahmos losses.
> 
> Hope, I summarized it right. (That video will help).
> 
> Edit: It seems the SEAD Jf-17s meant for Adampur mostly survived, did their ARMs not find the S-400 radars?


The Brahmos storage facilities were hit but the UAV hunter killer teams were shot down before they could get to the Brahmos. 
The SEAD JF-17s launched at inbound ADGE.

video is bit more of a headache due to uploading vs the snipping tool.

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## Pak Nationalist

SQ8 said:


> Updating Scenario with the following tweaks -
> Indian Side will not engage at will any and all PAF forces once the border has been breached instead of waiting for Pakistan to engage.
> Given 2 additional Scrambles with 4 MKIs and 4 Mig-29UPGs - in total from last scenario Indians had 8 aircraft on CAP vs 6 and are able to launch 10 interceptors to 6 previously
> HQ-9 Battery near Gujranwala reduced to 4 TELs
> 
> F-16 CAP will move to medium altitude. The UAVs fly in at fairly low level but as suggested by @VkdIndian they are picked up by Indian radars eventually - first by the Netra AEW and also by the PSM(or spoon rest) near Rajauri at an elevation.
> 
> *Result:*
> The Jammers are still fairly effective but the F-16 Flight does get hit by the S-400, However, a larger percentage of UAVs include those intended to attack the Brhamos on the Move are taken out by the Indian CAPs.
> The initial wave of Indian CAPs also inflicts damage on PAF fixed wing assets but is taken out by a mix of HQ-9 and PL-12/PL-15 from escorting fighters.
> 
> The PAF is able to launch stand off weapons' and hit the bunkers but the S-400 makes it out with some damage.
> However, the PAF flights are mauled by Indian interceptors on their way out and take a lot of losses even as they fight back and HQ-9 after a 15 minute reload is able to provide enough cover to bring a lot of IAF down too.
> Someone still takes out the Netra and I cannot figure out who.
> 
> The HQ-9 makes a big difference and really has the airspace hostile for Indian aircraft out of Adampur and Halwara - IAF aircraft do fairly well in BVR A2A combat against PAF fighters especially as they are retreating. The majority of IAF losses were to the HQ-9.
> 
> 
> View attachment 808252
> 
> 
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> SIDE: India
> ===========================================================
> 1x EMB-145I AEWC
> 2x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
> 3x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
> 1x Radar (PSM-33 Mk2)
> 3x Rafale C
> 3x SA-3b Goa Quad Rail [Cargo]
> 3x SA-7a Grail [9K32 Strela-2] MANPADS [Cargo]
> 2x Su-30MKI Flanker H
> 2x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 6x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H
> 1x Vehicle (Flat Face B [P-19]) [Cargo]
> 3x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
> 
> 
> SIDE: Pakistan
> ===========================================================
> 
> LOSSES:
> -------------------------------
> 3x Anka-I ELINT Mod
> 3x F-16AM Falcon MLU
> 1x F-16BM Falcon MLU
> 1x Falco UAV
> 2x ANKA EW
> 3x J-10C Vigorous Dragon
> 3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2
> 1x Mirage 5F [ROSE II/III]
> 2x Wing Loong [Pterodactyl] II UCAV


A question, did our strike package dispose of its payloads at the intended targets from stand-off ranges while staying in Pakistani airbases or apart from some UAVs did any assets violate the IB as well in this simulation? If it is the former, can the fire tracing radars be jammed at stand-off ranges? If the ROEs say that there would be no engagement until exchange from the Pakistani side is noticed, there is a possibility to capitalize on that by jamming the sensors that could trace delivery of payloads to minimize or completely eliminate the possibility of losses.

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## SQ8

Pak Nationalist said:


> A question, did our strike package dispose of its payloads at the intended targets from stand-off ranges while staying in Pakistani airbases or apart from some UAVs did any assets violate the IB as well in this simulation? If it is the former, can the fire tracing radars be jammed at stand-off ranges? If the ROEs say that there would be no engagement until exchange from the Pakistani side is noticed, there is a possibility to capitalize on that by jamming the sensors that could trace delivery of payloads to minimize or completely eliminate the possibility of losses.


This was a full on incursion - Adampur and Halwara are fairly inside India and Pakistan doesn’t possess any tactical standoff systems capable of getting that far. In addition, jamming assets need to close a certain distance before they can effectively deter the S-400 otherwise stand off systems will be shot down - A rafale shot down 2 H-4s using the meteor, stand off missiles do show up on radar.

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## TsAr

kursed said:


> So, I don't think that we'd compare the actions of Feb 26th and 27th as a benchmark for any such future events. Both PAF and IAF seem to have worked out the kinks, in terms of understanding of the other and in terms of responses.
> 
> So both sides will be bringing different rabbits out of their hats when they face off again. What we 'can' anticipate in any such short and hot exchange in the future are cross-border BVR shots and SAM shots, I genuinely believe that this is where EW will set the stage before any kinetic action takes place.
> 
> The party that can dissuade or even resist the other, just enough in terms of EW, will be able to get more shots across and on target. It does not mean that nothing will fly, it does not mean that both sides will not take losses, but that capability degradation achieved via EW will be one of the first targets.


one thing more, events that occurred in Feb restraints was shown by PAF and IAF, but the forces were not on full throttle.


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## kursed

@SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4. 

Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?


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## Pak Nationalist

kursed said:


> @SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.
> 
> Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?


And why not use Ra'ad in the simulation as well? The possibility that it could be perceived as nuclear-tipped?

On a side note, does Ra'ad also have terrain hugging features? It should ideally be a better platform for the neutralization of enemy air defenses given its ability to make alterations to its flight path, or would that be moot given the high velocity of an array of S-400 missiles?


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## PanzerKiel

kursed said:


> @SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.
> 
> Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?





Pak Nationalist said:


> And why not use Ra'ad in the simulation as well? The possibility that it could be perceived as nuclear-tipped?
> 
> On a side note, does Ra'ad also have terrain hugging features? It should ideally be a better platform for the neutralization of enemy air defenses given its ability to make alterations to its flight path, or would that be moot given the high velocity of an array of S-400 missiles?



Why not @SQ8 run a full war scenario then. Instead of little tweaks, lets run a full-blown war scenario then. War was never this simple.

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## kursed

PanzerKiel said:


> Why not @SQ8 run a full war scenario then. Instead of little tweaks, lets run a full-blown war scenario then. War was never this simple.


But aren't REK kits already being used, the difference between boosted and non-boosted versions is the distance they'd allow the JF-17 party without being targeted. OTOH, if the other side if employing Brahmos, why'd we keep back from using CM400?

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## PanzerKiel

kursed said:


> But aren't REK kits already being used, the difference between boosted and non-boosted versions is the distance they'd allow the JF-17 party without being targeted. OTOH, if the other side if employing Brahmos, why'd we keep back from using CM400?


There were some other assets....if we talk about 27 Feb.....which were supposed to come into play on that day from both sides, but mostly Pak could play them while they were able to MOSTLY deny those to the Indians.....those assets might have played a greater role in the ultimate result (and i am not talking about simple assets like EW, Blinders etc).

Those, and now some additional, will again come into play from our side, while we will again seek to deny Indians the use of their assets......

A short incomplete example.....infiltrated SF *teams *which *WERE *in enemy area, suitable equipped and having the mission to deny *SAR, BDA, post engagement assessment*, some were there to exactly pinpoint once their SAR heli took to the air (real-time battle int), some had the mission to neutralize that specific SPYDER battery (we knew it was there) which ultimately (lucky for us...made us literally sweat at one moment, the same battery dried the sweat by doing a Blue on Blue ) took down one of their own heli instead of one of our aircrafts, some teams much deeper (Su-30 wreck etc), some were in overwatch mode in the area of that ammo dump which was bombed, their secondary mission being to ambush the convoy having HVTs which was bound to move out from that place after bombing (they actually did move the HVTs out in a convoy, could have been easily ambushed with both options of air and ground / fire, but we decided that enough had already been done).....

.......Our PAF danced as it wanted on that day, but there were much important assets on ground (humans and technical) which absolutely neutralized and ultimately sapped the will of indians.....these assets provided the carpet on which PAF danced, because they were spread like a carpet on that terrain...

Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,

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## PanzerKiel

PanzerKiel said:


> There were some other assets....if we talk about 27 Feb.....which were supposed to come into play on that day from both sides, but mostly Pak could play them while they were able to MOSTLY deny those to the Indians.....those assets might have played a greater role in the ultimate result (and i am not talking about simple assets like EW, Blinders etc).
> 
> Those, and now some additional, will again come into play from our side, while we will again seek to deny Indians the use of their assets......
> 
> A short incomplete example.....infiltrated SF *teams *which *WERE *in enemy area, suitable equipped and having the mission to deny *SAR, BDA, post engagement assessment*, some were there to exactly pinpoint once their SAR heli took to the air (real-time battle int), some had the mission to neutralize that specific SPYDER battery which ultimately (lucky for us...made us literally sweat at one moment, the same battery dried the sweat by doing a Blue on Blue ) took down one of their own heli instead of one of our aircrafts, some teams much deeper (Su-30 wreck etc), some were in overwatch mode in the area of that ammo dump which was bombed, their secondary mission being to ambush the convoy having HVTs which was bound to move out from that place after bombing (they actually did move the HVTs out in a convoy, could have been easily ambushed with both options of air and ground / fire, but we decided that enough had already been done).....
> 
> .......Our PAF danced as it wanted on that day, but there were much important assets on ground (humans and technical) which absolutely neutralized and ultimately sapped the will of indians.....these assets provided the carpet on which PAF danced, because they were spread like a carpet on that terrain...
> 
> Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,


let me depict it in a more interesting manner....





the orange one are the assets, first to came on ground.......that black T Shirt is the PAF....he came from the back of that girl, did what he wanted to do.....then the PAF bugged out, the other girl in jeans can be called our leadership, she first kept on observing what PAF was doing and then literally dragged out the PAF from the arena once she thought it was enough......that orange girl stayed there with a big smile on her face....
the vid also depicts precisely the coordination of steps between PAF and others.....clockwork....

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## arjunk

PanzerKiel said:


> Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,


Time to "simulate" this on Arma 3

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## nahtanbob

PanzerKiel said:


> Some food for thought....
> ..throughout this whole simulation, the big assets....HQ-9 and S400 remain in being....if by chance (i mean indirect approach) HQ-9 or S-400 gets neutralized or disabled, the big advantage other side will have is for everyone to see. You remove either one of them from the equation....then it could get a one-sided match....just one asset, located at one precise location, waiting for....



The S-400 pose a threat to attacking aircraft. They are not game changers in the numbers inducted


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## PanzerKiel

nahtanbob said:


> The S-400 pose a threat to attacking aircraft. They are not game changers in the numbers inducted


For a military planner, something even posing a threat is enough....it brings more complexities into the attacker's plan, may be another separate strike package, more air effort to take that asset out, more ground effort, more intelligence effort, then the denial plans.......SAMs do exactly that.

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## Khan vilatey

Nice thread

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## S.Y.A

PanzerKiel said:


> Some food for thought....
> ..throughout this whole simulation, the big assets....HQ-9 and S400 remain in being...*.if by chance (i mean indirect approach) HQ-9 or S-400 gets neutralized or disabled*, the big advantage other side will have is for everyone to see. You remove either one of them from the equation....then it could get a one-sided match....just one asset, located at one precise location, waiting for....


thats what I wanted to say, but didnt....

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Why not @SQ8 run a full war scenario then. Instead of little tweaks, lets run a full-blown war scenario then. War was never this simple.


Wish it was that easy - actually decided to get down and try the Indian attack scenario with civilian traffic. Sat for 3 hours and couldn’t get it right - ToTs have to be exact , ESMs don’t always line up - Harop drones don’t pick the SAMs, Su-30Mkis abort SEAD missions because the Emitter disappeared.. ELINT cannot pinpoint exact coordinates… I do wish war was simple


kursed said:


> @SQ8 Can we change the PAF package to include CM400 and REKIII kits, automatically putting some distance between them and targets? They’re pretty much there to deter Brahmos attacks now. It feels like PAF is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, still trying on H4.
> 
> Also, why not include Fatah-1 to the mix?


The JF-17s use REK kits but the CM-400 is AsHM.

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## Khan vilatey

I only had a small issue with the simulation , why would Pakistan have a revolt inside her when fighting India. Isn’t india not preparing for a 2.5 front war rather than Pakistan ?

.5 are all the internal insurgencies in India

k


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## kursed

SQ8 said:


> The JF-17s use REK kits but the CM-400 is AsHM.


CM-400 started with a land-attack version, anti-ship role came on later. You can be more than sure that they'd be put to use even on land, where needed.

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> There were some other assets....if we talk about 27 Feb.....which were supposed to come into play on that day from both sides, but mostly Pak could play them while they were able to MOSTLY deny those to the Indians.....those assets might have played a greater role in the ultimate result (and i am not talking about simple assets like EW, Blinders etc).
> 
> Those, and now some additional, will again come into play from our side, while we will again seek to deny Indians the use of their assets......
> 
> A short incomplete example.....infiltrated SF *teams *which *WERE *in enemy area, suitable equipped and having the mission to deny *SAR, BDA, post engagement assessment*, some were there to exactly pinpoint once their SAR heli took to the air (real-time battle int), some had the mission to neutralize that specific SPYDER battery (we knew it was there) which ultimately (lucky for us...made us literally sweat at one moment, the same battery dried the sweat by doing a Blue on Blue ) took down one of their own heli instead of one of our aircrafts, some teams much deeper (Su-30 wreck etc), some were in overwatch mode in the area of that ammo dump which was bombed, their secondary mission being to ambush the convoy having HVTs which was bound to move out from that place after bombing (they actually did move the HVTs out in a convoy, could have been easily ambushed with both options of air and ground / fire, but we decided that enough had already been done).....
> 
> .......Our PAF danced as it wanted on that day, but there were much important assets on ground (humans and technical) which absolutely neutralized and ultimately sapped the will of indians.....these assets provided the carpet on which PAF danced, because they were spread like a carpet on that terrain...
> 
> Simulations are always useful, but my point is there are things which cannot be built into a simulation...... @SQ8 dear, nothing against you ofcourse, just wanted to point out something,


Simulations all have limitations - after all, if you see the movie on the hudson river miracle landing and the scene where the simulator apparently makes it with the aircraft to land and it seems they made a mistake(by landing the 320 in the hudson) he says to the effect “we’ve won this one(are exonerated)” . The reason being that the simulation as accurate as it may be doesn’t take into account the human element; which was for that accident the need to assess what happened and then make a decision and in this case the different empathic decisions being made both before and during the events of the 27th or in Any other engagements by any military . Zuckerberg may be able to predict human behavior or preferences but his data cannot predict panic behavior accurately because that doesn’t happen on social media. His algorithm like any other simulation cannot predict whether a Mirage 2000 pilot will decide to stay and fight or in a moment of thinking about self preservation or family decide to call Radar inoperable and bug out.

But, the flip side of it is the old adage “No plan(and ill add simulation) survives contact with the enemy”

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## Mumm-Ra

Considering that we're throwing S-400 in the mix, here's a video that shares a couple of scenarios on how the US would conduct SEAD against them. Worth a look

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## Pak Nationalist

SQ8 said:


> This was a full on incursion - Adampur and Halwara are fairly inside India and Pakistan doesn’t possess any tactical standoff systems capable of getting that far. In addition, jamming assets need to close a certain distance before they can effectively deter the S-400 otherwise stand off systems will be shot down - A rafale shot down 2 H-4s using the meteor, stand off missiles do show up on radar.


Interesting that H-4s were detected by the Rafales, but the drones would be harder to detect. I do not believe H-4's have a propulsion source, do they? I assume these are dumb bombs with range extension guidance kits. Might have an even lower IR signature, but then again, Meteor mightn't be using IR homing.

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## SQ8

Pak Nationalist said:


> Interesting that H-4s were detected by the Rafales, but the drones would be harder to detect. I do not believe H-4's have a propulsion source, do they? I assume these are dumb bombs with range extension guidance kits. Might have an even lower IR signature, but then again, Meteor mightn't be using IR homing.


I believe they do
@denel

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## kursed

kursed said:


> CM-400 started with a land-attack version, anti-ship role came on later. You can be more than sure that they'd be put to use even on land, where needed.


I see that Sq. Ldr Masood agrees with what I was suggesting to role play in this simulation.

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## Bilal.

kursed said:


> I see that Sq. Ldr Masood agrees with what I was suggesting to role play in this simulation.
> 
> View attachment 810004


PAF should add TL30. It’s like tacit rainbow.

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## denel

SQ8 said:


> I believe they do
> @denel


H4 do have a booster but that is about it; the rest is just controlled guiding either by command or preassigned target designation with priority switching as required.

what is key feature is the datalink that is very hard to jam; if you were able to use it else where - it is also being used in not only in other e.g. raptor 3; it is also the backbone of many secure telemetry solutions in different areas e.g. bateleur MALE etc; the more newer advancements have been in adaptive aspects (note- those in this field will know what i am talking about but nothing more can be said).

One must keep in mind; it is now 30yrs+ ago.

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## MultaniGuy

Don't forget that China would support Pakistan with supplies and diplomatically as well.

China has valuable interests in Pakistan at stake here.


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## denel

MultaniGuy said:


> Don't forget that China would support Pakistan with supplies and diplomatically as well.
> 
> China has valuable interests in Pakistan at stake here.


For now. Things can and do change.


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## MultaniGuy

denel said:


> For now. Things can and do change.


The latter sentence, wow how stupid can it get.

Pakistani and Chinese interests converge and we are neighbors.
China has invested A LOT in Pakistan.

This will not change anytime soon.

China would support Pakistan passively if there is a Pakistani-Indian war.

Lets not forget that China thrashed India in the 1962 war.


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## Dai Toruko

Indos said:


> *If India in the offensive, there will be oil and gas embargo from Muslim nations*, and I believe countries such as USA and Russia with huge oil and gas production will not help India to deal with its oil and gas supply deficit. It is because USA and Russia will likely stay neutral due to the influence of OIC nations. USA doesnt want Muslim countries side with China and Russia doesnt want to have bad relation with Muslim countries due to its rivalry with USA


Except Iran!
Pakistan accuses Iran of supporting Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Zainebiyoun fighters has been recruited among Pakistani workers based in Iran. The terrorist activities of the Balochi separatists are increasing the tension between Pakistan and Iran.

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## Sayfullah

Learning from the events in Ukraine-Russia war:

Pakistan should procure or make long range suicide drones like these:








These drones could be used instead of cruise missiles to destroy Indian bases like Russia destroyed Ukrainian bases. These drones can also gather intelligence and destroy enemy convoys or enemy sams. These drones are very cheap apparently costing Iranians only $50k each to make so we can afford to lose many. 

Pakistan should also procure or create something similar to USA’s MALD decoy:




These can fool enemy radars and make enemy sam’s fire at them exposing the enemy’s location. We could have the suicide drone i posted above fly behind these decoys and once the decoy makes the sam expose its position the suicide drone takes out the sam system or just SEAD/DEAD fighters ready to take out enemy sam’s when they engage them these decoys. In Ukraine mobile sam’s have become a real pain for Russians. We might face something similar. 

Pakistan also needs to increase the number of mlrs and self propelled artillery we have. In Russia vs Ukraine war we’ve seen the heavy use of artillery and the importance of artillery. Ukraine uses drones to find Russian army convoys then sends that information to its self propelled howitzers which attack and destroy the convoy and leave the area in a matter of time. 

Pakistan also needs many many more mobile Sam’s. Chinese HQ-17AE could be a very good option: 




In Ukraine, Russian convoys paid a heavy price via Ukrainian drones and even fighter jets and attack helicopters. Russian Air Force also paid a heavy price because Ukrainian mobile Sam’s weren’t all destroyed and they’ve turned into a headache for Russians. Ukrainians mobile Sam’s are proving to be more of a headache then long range systems like s-300. 

Pakistan also needs something similar to NLAW. In Ukraine NLAW has been revoking havoc on Russian armour. We need a light atgm which features top attack and fire and forget just like NLAW and can also be used in close quarters. Turkish have Karaok atgm which is similar to NLAW as in its light, has a range of around 1 km, has fire and forget and top attack mode.









Pakistan should also develop a light vehicle similar to Russian Tigr to replace all its Hilux’s in the army.




It should have heavy machine gun, atgms and good sensors. These could reck havoc on Indians.

Lastly, the most important part, Pakistan should, in areas bordering india, give training on how to use weapons to locals. Every single person capable of fighting should be given military training. Pakistan should make secret weapon and ammo depots in these border villages and when war starts give weapons to locals to help pak army or to wage guerrilla war in their villages if India captures it. In any next Pakistan india war, some villages will fall to Indians. If the population of these villages wage a guerrilla war it will be very hard for Indians to hold these villages while countering pak army.


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## SQ8

What would be a southern offensive from India look like?
Lets say a combined air and naval offensive supported by ground elements(EW & Cruise) systems.

What is an ORBAT for a IAF forward deployment? a PAF one? @Desert Fox 1 @JamD @The Eagle @kursed 

All OSINT and nothing to do with what you heard your serving uncle or buddy talk about!

@Joe Shearer - 5 lines breakdown maybe?

The sole purpose of this being to distract from the flooding of threads on the Pakistani political crisis or the next new thing Hindu extremists have done in India... maybe get some entertainment in return?

Here is an example I was trying and @PanzerKiel , civilian traffic is included.

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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> What would be a southern offensive from India look like?
> Lets say a combined air and naval offensive supported by ground elements(EW & Cruise) systems.
> 
> What is an ORBAT for a IAF forward deployment? a PAF one? @Desert Fox 1 @JamD @The Eagle @kursed
> 
> All OSINT and nothing to do with what you heard your serving uncle or buddy talk about!
> 
> @Joe Shearer - 5 lines breakdown maybe?
> 
> The sole purpose of this being to distract from the flooding of threads on the Pakistani political crisis or the next new thing Hindu extremists have done in India... maybe get some entertainment in return?
> 
> Here is an example I was trying and @PanzerKiel , civilian traffic is included.
> View attachment 831147


Sir,

What is a southern offensive?

Where does the south begin? Does it end, or might it be defined broadly?

I ask to get a boundary condition for my sanctioned 5 lines

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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> Sir,
> 
> What is a southern offensive?
> 
> Where does the south begin? Does it end, or might it be defined broadly?
> 
> I ask to get a boundary condition for my sanctioned 5 lines


Well, lets say where the poonjab turns into a desert. I think the screenshot is good reference?
The 5 lines are the minimum but feel free to play it all out and let our master computer crunch the idea.


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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> Well, lets say where the poonjab turns into a desert. I think the screenshot is good reference?
> The 5 lines are the minimum but feel free to play it all out and let our master computer crunch the idea.


Ah SO!

Fun will be had.


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## JamD

SQ8 said:


> What would be a southern offensive from India look like?
> Lets say a combined air and naval offensive supported by ground elements(EW & Cruise) systems.
> 
> What is an ORBAT for a IAF forward deployment? a PAF one? @Desert Fox 1 @JamD @The Eagle @kursed
> 
> All OSINT and nothing to do with what you heard your serving uncle or buddy talk about!
> 
> @Joe Shearer - 5 lines breakdown maybe?
> 
> The sole purpose of this being to distract from the flooding of threads on the Pakistani political crisis or the next new thing Hindu extremists have done in India... maybe get some entertainment in return?
> 
> Here is an example I was trying and @PanzerKiel , civilian traffic is included.
> View attachment 831147


Is there a way to declutter the map? Perhaps remove the heading/altitude/speed etc.

I'm assuming this is a follow on from the ORBAT thread. What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective? Blockade Karachi? Based on the main goal we can debate what needs to be done in terms of lower-level objectives.






SQ8 said:


> The sole purpose of this being to distract from the flooding of threads on the Pakistani political crisis or the next new thing Hindu extremists have done in India... maybe get some entertainment in return?


Thank you for this. The politics threads are mind numbing. Nothing to look forward to on the forum these days. This might be a welcome change. Thanks!

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## Joe Shearer

JamD said:


> What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective? Blockade Karachi? Based on the main goal we can debate what needs to be done in terms of lower-level objectives.


I hope there will be space for dissenting opinions.



JamD said:


> The politics threads are mind numbing.


....and here I was thinking I was getting hydrocephaly! Thank you; I feel relieved that i am not alone.

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## Joe Shearer

JamD said:


> I'm assuming this is a follow on from the ORBAT thread. What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective?


Why on earth would any planner plan to cut Pakistan into two?

Before going anywhere else, it badly needs saying that all Indians are not necessarily obsessed with the thought of reversing the disaster to overtake a three thousand year old civilisation that was Partition. So it is not that cutting Pakistan into two is a thought in the minds of rational people; it is the vision of some fringe lunatics who have obtained electoral backing and have a platform.



JamD said:


> What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective? Blockade Karachi?


Might one be permitted to march to a different drummer? To ensure that the capacity of an enemy to inflict casualties on our civilian population is severely damaged?

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## JamD

Joe Shearer said:


> Why on earth would any planner plan to cut Pakistan into two?
> 
> Before going anywhere else, it badly needs saying that all Indians are not necessarily obsessed with the thought of reversing the disaster to overtake a three thousand year old civilisation that was Partition. So it is not that cutting Pakistan into two is a thought in the minds of rational people; it is the vision of some fringe lunatics who have obtained electoral backing and have a platform.
> 
> 
> Might one be permitted to march to a different drummer? To ensure that the capacity of an enemy to inflict casualties on our civilian population is severely damaged?


My questions were more out of naivety than assumed intent. I'm looking for a good reason for India to attack the south. I simply don't know what the objective should be. You should be able to answer this well I hope.

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> Is there a way to declutter the map? Perhaps remove the heading/altitude/speed etc.
> 
> I'm assuming this is a follow on from the ORBAT thread. What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective? Blockade Karachi? Based on the main goal we can debate what needs to be done in terms of lower-level objectives.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thank you for this. The politics threads are mind numbing. Nothing to look forward to on the forum these days. This might be a welcome change. Thanks!


I cluttered it intentionally, will try to do a video so will have no clutter and everything will be neatly grouped. 

The goal I leave to @Joe Shearer and other Indians who may want to contribute. Cutting in half isn’t the only motivation for degrading military capability or imposing a blockade of sorts. But again, the idea can be very realistic and nitpicky or simply letting forces loose to see what comes of it

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> What would be a southern offensive from India look like?
> Lets say a combined air and naval offensive supported by ground elements(EW & Cruise) systems.


Basically, 54 RAMFOR Division, three amphibious brigades, 50 Para, 21 Corps (31 AD, couple of RAPIDs and an infantry division) for a ground offensive coupled with a sea-borne landing on our coastal flank.

For IAF, with a basic ORBAT of 12 squadrons (three SU-30, three Mig-21, two Mig-27, one Mig-29, three Jaguar) suitably reinforced with additional squadrons from the Eastern Air Command (minimum one Su-30 and two Mig-27 squadrons)

Naval assets are of course centered around the CBG. @SQ8 do plan a naval blockade as well.



SQ8 said:


> Here is an example I was trying and @PanzerKiel , civilian traffic is included.


A specific scenario always comes to my mind, read it somewhere, whereby both sides decided to conducted airborne landings / airfield seizure operations with military aircraft taking due advantage of the civilian traffic.



JamD said:


> I'm assuming this is a follow on from the ORBAT thread. What is the Indian objective here? The usual cutting Pakistan in two or some other objective? Blockade Karachi? Based on the main goal we can debate what needs to be done in terms of lower-level objectives.


Cutting of North South Road - north of Nawabshah, north and south of Mirpur Khas, capture of coal deposits, capture area upto Thatta from Bhuj side, a seaborn landing between Karachi and Kund Malir to attack defender's responses away from the eastern side.

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## Joe Shearer

JamD said:


> My questions were more out of naivety than assumed intent. I'm looking for a good reason for India to attack the south. I simply don't know what the objective should be. You should be able to answer this well I hope.


First, my reaction is not to be taken personally; the assumed intent is incorporated in man-in-the-street thinking on both sides of the border.

Assuming for a moment that an Indian attack on the southern reaches of Pakistan is a given, and we have to think within those boundaries, for me, at the risk of offending a large number of hyper-patriotic Indian compatriots, it would be to degrade Pakistani war-making capabilities, and give them enough to do rebuilding to keep them busy for a few years.

Nothing more ambitious than that. 

It would be intended to take the slender economic edge that India seems to have - given our awesome talent in the central ministries at the moment, this may well be an ephemereal advantage - and use it to push Pakistan down a few steps and make the country work hard to recover its military, economic and financial position.



SQ8 said:


> the idea can be very realistic and nitpicky


Preferred.

The thought of leaving forces loose to see what comes of it is a blood-chilling thought.

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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> First, my reaction is not to be taken personally; the assumed intent is incorporated in man-in-the-street thinking on both sides of the border.
> 
> Assuming for a moment that an Indian attack on the southern reaches of Pakistan is a given, and we have to think within those boundaries, for me, at the risk of offending a large number of hyper-patriotic Indian compatriots, it would be to degrade Pakistani war-making capabilities, and give them enough to do rebuilding to keep them busy for a few years.
> 
> Nothing more ambitious than that.
> 
> It would be intended to take the slender economic edge that India seems to have - given our awesome talent in the central ministries at the moment, this may well be an ephemereal advantage - and use it to push Pakistan down a few steps and make the country work hard to recover its military, economic and financial position.
> 
> 
> Preferred.
> 
> The thought of leaving forces loose to see what comes of it is a blood-chilling thought.


Ok
So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.
So for e.g. https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force

What needs to be different to reflect possible forward positions of forces.

Once reiterating for the general public that if we are going realistic we are all bound to obfuscate some lest we get accused of leaking information by the hyper jingoistic ones.



PanzerKiel said:


> Basically, 54 RAMFOR Division, three amphibious brigades, 50 Para, 21 Corps (31 AD, couple of RAPIDs and an infantry division) for a ground offensive coupled with a sea-borne landing on our coastal flank.
> 
> For IAF, with a basic ORBAT of 12 squadrons (three SU-30, three Mig-21, two Mig-27, one Mig-29, three Jaguar) suitably reinforced with additional squadrons from the Eastern Air Command (minimum one Su-30 and two Mig-27 squadrons)
> 
> Naval assets are of course centered around the CBG. @SQ8 do plan a naval blockade as well.
> 
> 
> A specific scenario always comes to my mind, read it somewhere, whereby both sides decided to conducted airborne landings / airfield seizure operations with military aircraft taking due advantage of the civilian traffic.
> 
> 
> Cutting of North South Road - north of Nawabshah, north and south of Mirpur Khas, capture of coal deposits, capture area upto Thatta from Bhuj side, a seaborn landing between Karachi and Kund Malir to attack defender's responses away from the eastern side.


Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan 

I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.

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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> Ok
> So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.
> So for e.g. https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force
> 
> What needs to be different to reflect possible forward positions of forces.
> 
> Once reiterating for the general public that if we are going realistic we are all bound to obfuscate some lest we get accused of leaking information by the hyper jingoistic ones.
> 
> 
> Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
> The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan
> 
> I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.


I am going off line for a little while to put down everything neatly and comprehensibly. Be right back.



SQ8 said:


> Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch.


This is agonising temptation. The solution is so attractive, and well within our grasp. Ah, well, back soon, but with present resources and present thinking and equipment.

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> Ok
> So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.


Bhuj, Jamnagar, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Pune, Utterlai, Phalodi and Naliya. Some more carrier based as well.

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Bhuj, Jamnagar, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Pune, Utterlai, Phalodi and Naliya. Some more carrier based as well.


Ok - so have
IAF
Bhuj - 18sq Jaguar IS Darin 3
Jaisalmer- Mi-17 Hip H, Searcher IIs no combat aircraft per public orbat - FOB For which sq hypothetically?
Jodhpur - 31sq MKIs, 32sq Bisons along with Mi-17s and Dhruvs
Utterlai - 4sq Bisons
Pune - No deployment
Suratgarh - 23sq Bisons
Naliya - MKIs(based on google maps but not sure if detachment or full deployment and from which sq - my guess is 2sq from Tezpur)
Phalodi is empty - not sure what goes there , seems best suited for Jaguars maybe?
They did retire the Mig-27 so I am guessing either a MKIsq or a Jaguar sq has taken on that gap.

16 Mig-29s on Vikramaditya positioned here.


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## SQ8

First pass - and PN ships haven't been put in place.
I am guessing the assumption is that a buildup has happened and lets say 2024ish another short term op has preceded this?

I dont think keeping a Amphibious group that closer to PN A2/AD assets may be a good idea but I am just assuming the amphibious group loads onto the LSTs from there.

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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> View attachment 831265
> 
> 
> First pass - and PN ships haven't been put in place.
> I am guessing the assumption is that a buildup has happened and lets say 2024ish another short term op has preceded this?


You can also keep couple of PN subs on war patrol in international waters as per normal procedures. Same for IN as well. Happens in peacetime.

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## surya kiran

JamD said:


> What is the Indian objective here?


from earlier post, copy pasting.

a. The reason, I say hold or make Pakistan lose/lose control over territory which is uninhabited is admitting that it will be difficult to achieve control over terrain which has been defended strongly by the PA. Which is why, I say threaten the cities to bog down the main defensive force while controlling uninhabited terrain.

b. Why do I say, concentrate on the coast and marshy area? As a country, we keep thinking of Kashmir, Punjab. Why? Because the are beautiful and we believe them to be truly ours? Arable? My belief is we need to concentrate on longer term. Kashmir and Punjab are well defended and both sides have set pieces. If we are to threaten Pakistan for the long term what could it be? Take out their access to the coast. Above Karachi, you have Balochistan. Let us forget about wanting to control the populated centres of Pakistan. If we are able to threaten Karachi even during peace, it becomes precarious.

c. Access to the coast gives access to the continental shelf and thereby the EEZ. Control over the EEZ south of Karachi is bigger than Kashmir. It is low visibility, high value terrain.

d. Loss of control or threat of loss of control of terrain between Hyd and Karachi and we threaten CPEC. This means, Pak will be forced to move troops from the North to the South. This they will be forced to do in the long term also. Which is what I hinted at earlier. Simultaneously talk about similar projects on equal basis with China from our East to our west. On our terms. This can involve security guarantees which we can provide. China for this needs to ensure peace across our border. China needs to support our route to the South East via Burma.

e. Our long term goal, if we decide to go on the offensive should be to degrade the lines of trade of Pakistan to the outside world, by ensuring gradual loss of control of territory for the PA.

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## surya kiran

SQ8 said:


> What would be a southern offensive from India look like?



The visible objective will be to push towards Hyd and Mirpur and Umarkot and blockading Karachi.

The real objective will be to control the following block in the South
Suddoi
LBOD
Badein
Thatta
Gharo

The Thar coal block in the north should be secondary objective.


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## SQ8

surya kiran said:


> The visible objective will be to push towards Hyd and Mirpur and Umarkot and blockading Karachi.
> 
> The real objective will be to control the following block in the South
> Suddoi
> LBOD
> Badein
> Thatta
> Gharo
> 
> The Thar coal block in the north should be secondary objective.


Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.


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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
> Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
> I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.


Land ORBAT? Can you tell me specifically in what form you want? Divisions, brigades, units, numbers etc? In which form?

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## surya kiran

SQ8 said:


> Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
> Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
> I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.


Will need to read, hopefully Sunday. Not exactly a military expert. Sorry.


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## Warking

This simulation lost any sense of realism after the hurr durr kashmir tribal rebels have f16s now. No possible rebellion in india india good.


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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
> The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan
> 
> I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.


Sir,

Plans are being made as quickly as possible, but it is taking longer than expected.

It is no fun dealing with the equipment and the formations presently available; far from being fun planning for them, it is clear that nothing can be accomplished given the difficulties of the terrain involved. Even if an MBT is geared to run at 60 kmph on level ground, no MBT in the IA inventory can traverse the terrain, by itself, at a speed of more than 10 to 20 kmph. By the time an offensive is mounted either from Jaisalmer towards Pano Aqil, or from Barmer towards Malir, it will take over 10 hours running without opposition for forces to reach Pano Aqil, and over 20, possibly closer to 40 hours to reach Malir. It is unlikely that the PAF will pass up the opportunity to pay homage to the memory of Wg. Cdr. Suresh, in paying their compliments to the formations involved.

It is proposed to put a formation on the doorstep of Pano Aqil in 6 hours' time, with sufficient firepower to keep @PanzerKiel 's rather nerve-wracking ATGMs at bay, and to put a formation in or around Malir in 12 hours' time.

I hope that will be exciting enough for the gentlemen concerned with dealing with such unexpected arrivals.

We are naturally talking of a first phase, and of a formal war objective of causing significant attrition to the opposing forces (regrettably, only two infantry divisions and a mechanised infantry division; how nice it would have been to deal with three armoured divisions instead). Subsequent phases, if any, will continue to have this objective.

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## Joe Shearer

Of course, it is also possible to push at Bahawalpur/Multan, though it will have lesser shock value than a thrust towards Karachi, and attract armoured formations, a far more desirable target. At the same time, these are, unfortunately, targets that are likely to shoot back.

Whatever will be presented for the Karachi sector can be used for Bahawalpur/Multan, pari passu.

Back to the drawing board.

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## PanzerKiel

Joe Shearer said:


> It is no fun dealing with the equipment and the formations presently available; far from being fun planning for them, it is clear that nothing can be accomplished given the difficulties of the terrain involved. Even if an MBT is geared to run at 60 kmph on level ground, no MBT in the IA inventory can traverse the terrain, by itself, at a speed of more than 10 to 20 kmph. By the time an offensive is mounted either from Jaisalmer towards Pano Aqil, or from Barmer towards Malir, it will take over 10 hours running without opposition for forces to reach Pano Aqil, and over 20, possibly closer to 40 hours to reach Malir. It is unlikely that the PAF will pass up the opportunity to pay homage to the memory of Wg. Cdr. Suresh, in paying their compliments to the formations involved.


PA and IA rate for armor advance in normal contact with enemy is 1-2 kms per hour (as vetted by history and normal field exercises as well). In case of absence of enemy, they are 8 kms per hour.



Joe Shearer said:


> \
> 
> It is proposed to put a formation on the doorstep of Pano Aqil in 6 hours' time, with sufficient firepower to keep @PanzerKiel 's rather nerve-wracking ATGMs at bay, and to put a formation in or around Malir in 12 hours' time.


ATGMs is just one aspect....mines, water bodies etc make it more interesting.

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## surya kiran

@SQ8 ICG has got Grifin hovercrafts, most of which are based in the western coast. I think 10 to 12 of them are based here. They would be put to use probably for operations in the marshy areas. Each can carry approx 40 combat troops. You could see how this helps.


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## Joe Shearer

PanzerKiel said:


> PA and IA rate for armor advance in normal contact with enemy is 1-2 kms per hour (as vetted by history and normal field exercises as well). In case of absence of enemy, they are 8 kms per hour.


Many thanks; I was looking for this figure, and was not sure. It vindicates the work-around I have in mind.



PanzerKiel said:


> ATGMs is just one aspect....mines, water bodies etc make it more interesting.


I can assure you, you will find the solution proposed interesting.



surya kiran said:


> @SQ8 ICG has got Grifin hovercrafts, most of which are based in the western coast. I think 10 to 12 of them are based here. They would be put to use probably for operations in the marshy areas. Each can carry approx 40 combat troops. You could see how this helps.



শালা!
Really HATE this guy.

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## surya kiran

Joe Shearer said:


> Really HATE this guy.


Bharat Forge is planning on making more in India.


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## Joe Shearer

surya kiran said:


> Bharat Forge is planning on making more in India.


Look what you did. Revealed my whole masterly strategy to park three armoured brigades outside Malir, with air support from Jaisalmer, using the Griffon 8100 (not the 8000 used by the Coast Guard, but the military version). 

O the ignominy of it all.

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## Battlion25

Estimation is that Pak can rollover India in 12-24 months if it lets go. All this is fanciful work but in actual conflict it will quickly turn into a nightmare on epic proportions. With approx 400-500 nuclear warheads exchanged in just first few hours tit for tat before any conventional engagements follows.. Once the Indian backbone is broken which is basically their civilization the need to fight will be on the lower end for them.

That is the time to swip into India with mass incursions and that is once the El-grid is down, water systems are down, nuclear winter is in effect meaning failure of crops. This is when India becomes rip for complete defeat. Throwing in including a host of coalitions such as Afghans and Uzbeks into the incursions as cannon fodders.

But first you gotta break India's back completely before commiting to the qucik dashing blitzkrieg into the heartland of Inida and by that you achieve it via scorched earth making things into post-apocalyptic scenario plays right into Pakistan as it has many mountains and could sustain such scenario better but you withhold your trump card you just do some faint attacks but you wait until the situation festers over there after the nuclear exchanges that exceeds 400-500 warhead exhanges.

Let India marinate in that disaster then they will assume the worst is over that is when you bring in the cavalry on top of the disaster hence that is when it is rip for the incursions and streamrolling..

1 week post exhanges the Indians will likely assume the worst is over that is when you bring in everything.. Because at that point over 70-80% of India is neutralized including their defensive systems, el-grid, etc etc including their is hunger nothing to eat as India will run out of food immediately hence the incursion you keep it as trump card. once things fester you throw in 10-12m Pak armed forces including paramilitary plus 3-5m Afghans + 4-5m Uzbeks. You land on top of subcontinent as they will be initially no defensive systems as India's defensive shield will be exhausted and breached during the exhanges it will also destroy their grid.

India will likely still have conventional forces at the forward positions you smash into these and cut them off and reach Delhi within 24 hours after the first incursion.. But you will reach a completely different delhi that has been turned into ruble ash meaning you don't need to enter the city just plant a flag for symbolic reasons aka propaganda and exit the toxic city move towards the deccan and Mumbai. It is also key to take out Mumbai suburbs in the first few hours of the exhanges. emptying the mahrastara region area before you put your forces in there... But once the dust settles you will rebuild whatever is gained but it is key to hold firm onto North India and the whole Deccan region..

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## Joe Shearer

Battlion25 said:


> Estimation is that Pak can rollover India in 12-24 months if it lets go.


Do let go. Don't hold it in, it's bad for health.

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## farooqbhai007

surya kiran said:


> @SQ8 ICG has got Grifin hovercrafts, most of which are based in the western coast. I think 10 to 12 of them are based here. They would be put to use probably for operations in the marshy areas. Each can carry approx 40 combat troops. You could see how this helps.


Only 5 are based along the Gujarat axis. Others located along the Western coast are much much further away and out of range to conduct any ops in kutch.


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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Land ORBAT? Can you tell me specifically in what form you want? Divisions, brigades, units, numbers etc? In which form?


Not necessarily divisions and brigades for land but definitely in terms of assets expected numbers. Ill show the interface as an example in a bit.



Joe Shearer said:


> Sir,
> 
> Plans are being made as quickly as possible, but it is taking longer than expected.
> 
> It is no fun dealing with the equipment and the formations presently available; far from being fun planning for them, it is clear that nothing can be accomplished given the difficulties of the terrain involved. Even if an MBT is geared to run at 60 kmph on level ground, no MBT in the IA inventory can traverse the terrain, by itself, at a speed of more than 10 to 20 kmph. By the time an offensive is mounted either from Jaisalmer towards Pano Aqil, or from Barmer towards Malir, it will take over 10 hours running without opposition for forces to reach Pano Aqil, and over 20, possibly closer to 40 hours to reach Malir. It is unlikely that the PAF will pass up the opportunity to pay homage to the memory of Wg. Cdr. Suresh, in paying their compliments to the formations involved.
> 
> It is proposed to put a formation on the doorstep of Pano Aqil in 6 hours' time, with sufficient firepower to keep @PanzerKiel 's rather nerve-wracking ATGMs at bay, and to put a formation in or around Malir in 12 hours' time.
> 
> I hope that will be exciting enough for the gentlemen concerned with dealing with such unexpected arrivals.
> 
> We are naturally talking of a first phase, and of a formal war objective of causing significant attrition to the opposing forces (regrettably, only two infantry divisions and a mechanised infantry division; how nice it would have been to deal with three armoured divisions instead). Subsequent phases, if any, will continue to have this objective.


Huzoor, I wouldn’t go that in depth on land and instead focus on the core competencies of the simulator which is air and naval warfare.

The question does remain of background for this offensive - since in the images you may have noticed civilian traffic is busy in routine and I have made air corridors not just within major Indian & Pakistan cities but also international traffic that pass both over and into the subcontinent. Off course with transponders all civilian traffic is known to each side in these initial 60 minutes and will be removed as things heat up.
Also bear in mind that while we are able to simulate each minute - doing 40 hours and being able to observe everything is going to be fairly tiresome. So I suggest we split it into episodes of several hours and then play the next episode based upon the result of the former. Roll the die if you may.

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## Battlion25

surya kiran said:


> You forgot, PN will attack A&N Command and open up Malacca straits for the PLAN to come in. Don't make such rookie mistakes. Involve, PN also. They will feel bad.
> 
> Trolling over.
> 
> On a serious note, bhai ek thread barabar chal raha hai after years. Aur kahin jaa ke tatti kar na. 1000 aur thread hai, bus ye aur woh ORBAT thread ko chod de. I would advise you go to BrahMos launch thread. Wahan hum BrahMos chodengey, aur tum Ababeel. You can have fun there.



I am not trolling.. I am absolute dead serious here and no PN or Malacca straits will be needed here as we have land-corridor with each other. I didn't take PN into count.. Are you saying we can't do this? And outside of our ability to land 400 nuclear warheads inside India? 

As I have said many times you guys live in fantasy delulu.. I have read 24 pages here nobody has even remotely come close to envision what such a war would look like and everyone was treating it as if it is only gonna be conventional warfare which is entirely mistaken. First you calculate a savage nuclear outfall then you start to calculate the conventional engagements etc etc but here everything is done from the opposite which is from a limited conventional skirmishes which is at best wishy washy and doesn't point to the brutally honest picture..

''punch first then ask questions later doctrine will apply here on both sides''

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## surya kiran

Battlion25 said:


> I am not trolling.. I am absolute dead serious here and no PN or Malacca straits will be needed here as we have land-corridor with each other. I didn't take PN into count.. Are you saying we can't do this? And outside of our ability to land 400 nuclear warheads inside India?
> 
> As I have said many times you guys live in fantasy delulu.. I have read 24 pages here nobody has even remotely come close to envision what such a war would look like and everyone was treating it as if it is only gonna be conventional warfare which is entirely mistaken. First you calculate a savage nuclear outfall then you start to calculate the conventional engagements etc etc but here everything is done from the opposite which is from a limited conventional skirmishes which is at best wishy washy and doesn't point to the brutally honest picture..
> 
> ''punch first then ask questions later doctrine will apply here on both sides''


I am going to assume, you are genuinely 12. 

So, let us assume you lob 200 bombs and we lob 200 bombs. What do you think happens? Let us assume, that your 200 bombs fall on 100 cities, what do you think happens to the 200 bombs that we sent your way?

Where did the 10-12 mn PA forces come from? 50% of the population lives in towns. They get wiped out. The remaining bombs take care of another 25%. So now you are left with 50 mn people. Of this, lets assume 35% is below 15 years of age. so now you have 32.5 mn. Let's say 10% is above military age. so now you have 28 mn. Of this lets say 50% are women. Now you have 14 mn. Now are yyou saying these will get commited to cross over to India?

Please note, I have not assumed concentration of population. Now, of this how are you going to cross over without any equipment?

Why do you assume the Afghans and Iranians will help you? We wont nuke Balochistan, because there is nothing to nuke most of the part. Either the Iranians ill come rushing in or Balochistan will declare independence. The Afghans will take KPK. Why do you assume anyone is going to help a dead man?

In a nuclear exchange, there is a higher probability that Iran will take Balochistan and Afghanistan will take KPK, that you doing anything to India.

There is a reason, why you should leave professionals do their jobs. Like I have always said and I still hold. The PA is the first line of defence for India against the nutjobs to your west. It is easier for IA to deal with the PA, than dealing with religious nutjobs who want to meet their maker for whatever promises. The faster you understand this, the saner your replies will get.

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## Battlion25

surya kiran said:


> I am going to assume, you are genuinely 12.
> 
> So, let us assume you lob 200 bombs and we lob 200 bombs. What do you think happens? Let us assume, that your 200 bombs fall on 100 cities, what do you think happens to the 200 bombs that we sent your way?
> 
> Where did the 10-12 mn PA forces come from? 50% of the population lives in towns. They get wiped out. The remaining bombs take care of another 25%. So now you are left with 50 mn people. Of this, lets assume 35% is below 15 years of age. so now you have 32.5 mn. Let's say 10% is above military age. so now you have 28 mn. Of this lets say 50% are women. Now you have 14 mn. Now are yyou saying these will get commited to cross over to India?
> 
> Please note, I have not assumed concentration of population. Now, of this how are you going to cross over without any equipment?
> 
> Why do you assume the Afghans and Iranians will help you? We wont nuke Balochistan, because there is nothing to nuke most of the part. Either the Iranians ill come rushing in or Balochistan will declare independence. The Afghans will take KPK. Why do you assume anyone is going to help a dead man?
> 
> In a nuclear exchange, there is a higher probability that Iran will take Balochistan and Afghanistan will take KPK, that you doing anything to India.
> 
> There is a reason, why you should leave professionals do their jobs. Like I have always said and I still hold. The PA is the first line of defence for India against the nutjobs to your west. It is easier for IA to deal with the PA, than dealing with religious nutjobs who want to meet their maker for whatever promises. The faster you understand this, the saner your replies will get.



Why would I keep the blitzkrieg cavalry as trump card if I am not counting on all of that... I have taken into consideration that you will loop in that amount or even higher.. My forces will be out of reach and secure places they will not be within line of impact as they are the trump card otherwise they couldn't be the trump card.. 2+2 is 4 you should have been able to read between the lines on that one.

As far as the rest of the population goes they will be sacrificed and a dead weight majority of them to be fairly honest and I would even say garbage.. Hence someone with clear mind will succeed here that knows the pre-calculation. I said Uzbeks I didn't say Iranians. Don't get it confused. Nobody will charge in here once people see cities going out in flash nobody wants to get hit themselves for such little prize.

But my calculation was on point.. I was not beating around the bushes. Besides India has never stopped an incursion what makes you think you will magically stop it now? The Key here is outmanuvering. We can better sustain the nuclear outfall due to numerous mountains and they will form as natural cover for many remote villages hence we will cope better naturally compared to you that is out in the open..

The Cavalry will reach post disaster once things has festered and the war will begin when you least assume it which is post-major disaser and catastrophe.

Do you have the stomach to wrestle with me on top of the greatest catastrophe scenario and the most cruel meat-grinder. I don't think so as these I will bring in will be these who do not fear dead giving them a clear moral edge to sprint forth and dash across the Indian mainland..

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## surya kiran

Battlion25 said:


> Why would I keep the blitzkrieg cavalry as trump card if I am not counting on all of that... I have taken into consideration that you will loop in that amount or even higher.. My forces will be out of reach and secure places they will not be in line with impact as they are the trump card.
> 
> As far as the rest of the population goes they will be sacrificed and a dead weight majority of them.. Hence someone with clear mind will succeeded here. I said Uzbeks I didn't say Iranians. Don't get it confused. Nobody will charge in here once people see cities going nobody wants to get hit themselves for such little surprise.
> 
> But my calculation was on point.. I was not beating around the bushes. Besides India has never stopped an incursion what makes you think you will magically stop it now? The Key here is outmanuvering. We will better sustain the nuclear outfall due to numerous mountains and they will form as natural cover from many remote villages hence we will cope better naturally compared to you that is out in the open..
> 
> The Cavalry will reach post disaster once things has festered and the war will begin one you least assume it which is post-major disaser and catastrophe.
> 
> Do you have the stomach to wrestle with me on top of the greatest catastrophe scenario and the most cruel meat-grinder. I don't think so as these I will bring will not fear dead giving them a clear moral edge to sprint forth and dash across the Indian mainland..



Aap he ho sir. Aap he ho. Chaa gaye.

Till today we were safe, because yyou were not part of PA decision making. Please officer math ban jaana PA mein. Warna there will be no place to hide for us.

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## SQ8

Alright - how does land warfare work in the simulation is not too difficult but it will help folks wanting to provide me guidance. So for e.g. @Joe Shearer ,@PanzerKiel , @surya kiran and others. 

There is a list of units I can select from a database that this sim maintains based on OSINT. 
These are usually unit groups when it comes to land units and cannot be mass brigades, divisions or otherwise. 

But I can for e.g. place T-90s in this location - they are available in troops of 3 in this case and then further group them into a battalion or div. I am not restricted to group the same units together so it can be a grouping of any mobile unit - just dont want to group a static AAA position with a moveable object. 

Also when grouping , it does simulate different speeds of systems so tanks with infantry will see the tanks move ahead, then either wait or go back to regroup to keep pace with infantry. 

So, I put a single T-90S group near Barmer and then essentially copy paste it into 5 troops. 







I then can give movement way points to this troop to head towards - in this case Umerkot. Bear in mind they are fairly far apart but it is good to demonstrate something in terms of mass movements as you will see. 






Now the neat part is, even though I laid out my waypoints like that, the ground units will do their best to follow this path but be mindful of terrain elevation and type of terrain so we will see some deviation, some units moving ahead versus regrouping to keep pace with their group. This is going to eat into the time the entire force needs to get into its objective. 

So, if I started off at the below time: 







It took the units some 7 hours to reach Umerkot from that position - they had to change their positions in the middle, change routes, some waypoints were on terrain that was inaccessible. Some troops raced ahead while others had to navigate differently and so on. 
Off course when we build something like an actual formation I will go in much closer and build out a formation based on any public links or ideas provided but it is a good example of how the terrain impacts objectives versus actual route. 






Lastly, a note on how land units are simulated similar to other systems but perhaps with a little bit more simplicity since this is a Air/Naval focused sim. Here is the battlecard for the T90S and the metrics being used to represent it.

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## SQ8

surya kiran said:


> @SQ8 ICG has got Grifin hovercrafts, most of which are based in the western coast. I think 10 to 12 of them are based here. They would be put to use probably for operations in the marshy areas. Each can carry approx 40 combat troops. You could see how this helps.


It depends on whether they are within the sims database but we can always substitute with a different hovercraft.

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## surya kiran

SQ8 said:


> It depends on whether they are within the sims database but we can always substitute with a different hovercraft.



The ones with teh ICG cannot carry heavy vehicles. It can carry troops. max carrying capactity is 5 tons. Range approx 350 kms.


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## SQ8

https://cmano-db.com/search.php

Here is a db reference - 

Requesting that members who aren’t interested in going into the depths of this little exercise refrain from jingoistic comments. Most of us are just tired of what we have seen in the past two weeks on PDF so we are trying to savor the good stuff.



surya kiran said:


> The ones with teh ICG cannot carry heavy vehicles. It can carry troops. max carrying capactity is 5 tons. Range approx 350 kms.


Check the link out - in vehicles to see if you spot a hovercraft.
I see them in ships when you search LCACs

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## surya kiran

@waz @LeGenD 

could you please move posts 351 352 355 356 357 358 359 to either funny or the BrahMos thread?


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## GEMINI

Battlion25 said:


> Obviously you wouldn't launch such a blitz without having all the necessary resources in order meaning keeping awhole lot of reserve fuel for them specifically including their food and everything is counted for as they are pre-prepared off the grid.
> 
> The radioactivate wasteland will become good again in few 3-4 years besides we will use equipment. The plan should be to build an entirely new future on a new page all together pushing the sub-continent population back to 50 million max even 100m in total at tops. This will be a healthy start.
> 
> A completely new epoch with new borders and new countries arising


Sorry, i have deleted my original post just to avoid destroying a very good thread. But could not resist asking, have you ever seen or handled any disaster in any capacity?? Can you guage the moral, emotions of the survivors? What equipment you would suggest to make a nuclear wayse land into productive land so quickly?

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## surya kiran

SQ8 said:


> https://cmano-db.com/search.php
> 
> Here is a db reference -
> 
> Requesting that members who aren’t interested in going into the depths of this little exercise refrain from jingoistic comments. Most of us are just tired of what we have seen in the past two weeks on PDF so we are trying to savor the good stuff.
> 
> 
> Check the link out - in vehicles to see if you spot a hovercraft.
> I see them in ships when you search LCACs







__





cmano-db.com






cmano-db.com





this is the closest i found.

@waz @LeGenD 

could you please move 364 to 367 away from this thread. thank you.


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## SQ8

surya kiran said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cmano-db.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cmano-db.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this is the closest i found.



We’ll use that - I just have to figure out the troop loading on it but that should be fun.

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## Joe Shearer

surya kiran said:


> The PA is the first line of defence for India against the nutjobs to your west.


Never a truer word has been said.


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## SQ8

Alright folks, I am now done pretty much setting the Air Force ORBATs up on all MOBs for Pakistan and projected FOBs for India. 

Now its all about where you guide me to place units and divisions. 

An example of when you let your armored column plot its own course to Umerkot and not lay down exact waypoints every 50km is everyone gets a mind of their own. Some want to use a road, others want to go dune bashing. 
Each symbol represents 3 units of type

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## surya kiran

SQ8 said:


> Alright folks, I am now done pretty much setting the Air Force ORBATs up on all MOBs for Pakistan and projected FOBs for India.
> 
> Now its all about where you guide me to place units and divisions.
> 
> An example of when you let your armored column plot its own course to Umerkot and not lay down exact waypoints every 50km is everyone gets a mind of their own. Some want to use a road, others want to go dune bashing.
> Each symbol represents 3 units of type
> View attachment 831700


btw, there is parartrooper,delta force and green beret option in the listings.


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## PanzerKiel

SQ8 said:


> Alright folks, I am now done pretty much setting the Air Force ORBATs up on all MOBs for Pakistan and projected FOBs for India.
> 
> Now its all about where you guide me to place units and divisions.
> 
> An example of when you let your armored column plot its own course to Umerkot and not lay down exact waypoints every 50km is everyone gets a mind of their own. Some want to use a road, others want to go dune bashing.
> Each symbol represents 3 units of type
> View attachment 831700


Dear, do please tell me, should i then tell you the force in multiples of 3 or what??

Moreover, do not lay exact waypoints. Let the terrain play. Let the forces find the best route themselves, that is exactly how the terrain imposes delay and friction on the movement.

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## SQ8

PanzerKiel said:


> Dear, do please tell me, should i then tell you the force in multiples of 3 or what??
> 
> Moreover, do not lay exact waypoints. Let the terrain play. Let the forces find the best route themselves, that is exactly how the terrain imposes delay and friction on the movement.


Huzoor, Composition and what to expect from lets say XXI corps from India and the forces you quotes earlier and what is the starting point.

So is a composition of a thrust
300 T-90s with 400 BMPs, SPHs, AD and so on or is it larger .. etc

Or if @surya kiran or @Joe Shearer can provide that then what is Pakistan’s starting point and numbers against. 

The first thing would be to really decide on our part where that starting line is? 
What causes a southern offensive? Lets say it was a similar escalation as if another 26/11 happens and a respective 26th Feb and 27th have occurred leading to things going out of hand…
Whats the general fog of war that we are to impose on either side so that such an ambitious offensive to be afoot.

So while the political backstory isn’t relevant, force deployment and preparedness on both sides definitely would be good to have rather than have a well laid out plan from the Indian side but other than subs out to sea and two surface action groups the PAF and PA are still at peacetime locations.

The PAF I can probably think about where to deploy especially with Sukkur & Nawabshah available as immediate FOBs but really have no idea where to put any possible PA defenses otherwise; will copying the pattern of 71 be accurate?



surya kiran said:


> btw, there is parartrooper,delta force and green beret option in the listings.


Yes, plus we can mix and match what is missing in other ways too especially within the air. For e.g. the MKIs all have R-77s which based on the sim’s database are fairly outmatched in many aspects by AIM-120s. However , the IAF was switching out to i-derby’s and Astras so I can “force” a loadout contrary . The same way the database has a JF-17 block-III that doesn’t have PL-15s but I can “force” load them on there.
Ive done the same with M2ks and Spice because the DB only shows a loadout of LGBs.

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## SQ8

New discoveries when using this for proper land warfare the first time.
Simulating a defensive position on the border against a XXI div attack - using generic infantry and Bakhtar shikan carriers (Bakhtar Shikan rep by Red arrow) and mortar teams.
Apparently even at 7nm an entire Indian div attack force -
63 T-90s, 84 BMPs, and 12 combined Arty pieces with Sams are undetected by UAVs, Inf observation posts with binoculars or ATGMwith reported ranges of 18nm+ surveillance.








Yet when it comes to engaging first, the Pakistani elements start shooting first around 2.5nm and the attacking force takes a hit and slows down. This single PA group of 12 ATGM carriers and Infantry groups





Its only closer that the Indian group engages and artillery comes in to finish off this group of PA defenders




But otherwise they are able to extract a toll:
SIDE: India
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
19x BMP-2 Sarath [AT-5 Spandrel A] IFV [Cargo]
6x T-90S Bhishma Main Battle Tank [Cargo]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
158x 125mm APFSDS-T
3x 125mm HE
410x 30mm 2A42 Burst [20 rnds]
1x AT-10 Stabber [9M117 Bastion]
3x AT-5 Spandrel A [9M113 Konkurs]



SIDE: Pakistan
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
11x M113 [Bakhtar Shikan] IFV [Cargo]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
2x 7.62mm MG Burst [20 rnds]
274x 60mm Mortar (Lot of rounds thrown out there) 
13x Bakhtar Shikan ATGM

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## JamD

SQ8 said:


> https://cmano-db.com/search.php
> 
> Here is a db reference -
> 
> Requesting that members who aren’t interested in going into the depths of this little exercise refrain from jingoistic comments. Most of us are just tired of what we have seen in the past two weeks on PDF so we are trying to savor the good stuff.
> 
> 
> Check the link out - in vehicles to see if you spot a hovercraft.
> I see them in ships when you search LCACs


Any luck on the hovercraft? 

Pak Marines has two 8100TD:




and four 2000TD:




bought in 2010 and 2004 respectively. The token number, use by the Marines and not PN, and no follow up orders seems to suggest that hovercraft use was toyed with and found to be not too useful (or useful enough to spend significant money on).

@surya kiran what are the numbers like on the Indian side and what exactly would be their mission in a conflict? Landing craft? Harassment?

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## SQ8

JamD said:


> Any luck on the hovercraft?
> 
> Pak Marines has two 8100TD:
> View attachment 832722
> 
> and four 2000TD:
> View attachment 832723
> 
> bought in 2010 and 2004 respectively. The token number, use by the Marines and not PN, and no follow up orders seems to suggest that hovercraft use was toyed with and found to be not too useful (or useful enough to spend significant money on).
> 
> @surya kiran what are the numbers like on the Indian side and what exactly would be their mission in a conflict? Landing craft? Harassment?


We can sub for the hovercraft - I was waiting on a brief scenario writeup to go build it

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## Bilal.

SQ8 said:


> I was waiting on a brief scenario writeup to go build it


I really apologize to derail but I couldn’t help it. You can delete it.

The scenario: a phone call was received and capitulation was accepted.

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## SQ8

Bilal. said:


> I really apologize to derail but I couldn’t help it. You can delete it.
> 
> The scenario: a phone call was received and capitulation was accepted.


Well, we can pretend otherwise

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## Joe Shearer

JamD said:


> Any luck on the hovercraft?
> 
> Pak Marines has two 8100TD:
> View attachment 832722
> 
> and four 2000TD:
> View attachment 832723
> 
> bought in 2010 and 2004 respectively. The token number, use by the Marines and not PN, and no follow up orders seems to suggest that hovercraft use was toyed with and found to be not too useful (or useful enough to spend significant money on).
> 
> @surya kiran what are the numbers like on the Indian side and what exactly would be their mission in a conflict? Landing craft? Harassment?


Just a day more. Sorry, but before identifying the craft, the composition of the team, and their role in a formation had to be defined and bounded.



SQ8 said:


> We can sub for the hovercraft - I was waiting on a brief scenario writeup to go build it


Almost ready.

Have not changed the formations or their types; they will remain what they are today, to be conservative.



SQ8 said:


> We can sub for the hovercraft - I was waiting on a brief scenario writeup to go build it


I have the scenario ready, but have a question.

May it be submitted one step at a time? Presenting the entirety does take the element of surprise out of it. If so, then with the permission of all concerned, as soon as the revisions in ORBAT are complete, these can be submitted one step at a time.

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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> Just a day more. Sorry, but before identifying the craft, the composition of the team, and their role in a formation had to be defined and bounded.
> 
> 
> Almost ready.
> 
> Have not changed the formations or their types; they will remain what they are today, to be conservative.
> 
> 
> I have the scenario ready, but have a question.
> 
> *May it be submitted one step at a time?* Presenting the entirety does take the element of surprise out of it. If so, then with the permission of all concerned, as soon as the revisions in ORBAT are complete, these can be submitted one step at a time.


Yes sir - it would also be extremely complex and taxing on the machine to have lets say a 3000 elements within a simulation active. We can play it out by day or even 4 hour moves depending upon how it happens .
Let’s also not forget - it’s possible since we are leaving this to a machine’s crunching of numbers that things don’t play out as expected so the moves might have to change too

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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> Yes sir - it would also be extremely complex and taxing on the machine to have lets say a 3000 elements within a simulation active. We can play it out by day or even 4 hour moves depending upon how it happens .


Got it, Chief.

The scenario actually starts in Month M-12, when aerial surveillance, local activity and newspaper reports, as well as fanboy mentions in the usual places, reveal a great deal of building activity in a number of places uncomfortably close to the India-Pakistan border. 

While there is no way of guessing what this is about, it seems apparent that full-scale cantonments and modern military bases are under construction, and of a type that expands existing facilities or builds green-field facilities.

A list of these building sites will be released in the next one hour.

While this may be significant, the exact significance, so to speak, is not easy to understand in a vacuum. What happens next, in Month M, and continues for nearly four months, in the time-frame of January to April, is of considerable concern.

So the list, first.



SQ8 said:


> We can play it out by day or even 4 hour moves depending upon how it happens .


The preliminaries, to set the mindset right, will be in months, and will include curiousity-raising building activity, and significant purchases of unusual equipment, of various sizes and categories, but completely at variance with the shifts and re-deployments to be seen from M0 to M+4.

This is a heads-up, and as soon as I have finished the last little bit of pending work, even before detailing some other necessary information, I will communicate developments - actions and events that would be visible in the normal course of things. For instance, Nth Infantry Division has moved from Place X to Place Y. It appears to be a permanent move.


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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> Got it, Chief.
> 
> The scenario actually starts in Month M-12, when aerial surveillance, local activity and newspaper reports, as well as fanboy mentions in the usual places, reveal a great deal of building activity in a number of places uncomfortably close to the India-Pakistan border.
> 
> While there is no way of guessing what this is about, it seems apparent that full-scale cantonments and modern military bases are under construction, and of a type that expands existing facilities or builds green-field facilities.
> 
> A list of these building sites will be released in the next one hour.
> 
> While this may be significant, the exact significance, so to speak, is not easy to understand in a vacuum. What happens next, in Month M, and continues for nearly four months, in the time-frame of January to April, is of considerable concern.
> 
> So the list, first.
> 
> 
> The preliminaries, to set the mindset right, will be in months, and will include curiousity-raising building activity, and significant purchases of unusual equipment, of various sizes and categories, but completely at variance with the shifts and re-deployments to be seen from M0 to M+4.
> 
> This is a heads-up, and as soon as I have finished the last little bit of pending work, even before detailing some other necessary information, I will communicate developments - actions and events that would be visible in the normal course of things. For instance, Nth Infantry Division has moved from Place X to Place Y. It appears to be a permanent move.


Got it
Its midnight here
But I will set up a new thread.. will include simulation in the title lest we trigger panic like Orson Welles did with his war of the worlds rendition https://www.neh.gov/article/fake-news-orson-welles-war-worlds-80

@Joe Shearer I also suggest that while land based thrusts are the eventual goal, we lean more on the strength of the simulation which is air and naval combat. It simulated land combat OK, it excels in giving a pretty good picture of the other realms(including space)

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## Joe Shearer

SQ8 said:


> I also suggest that while land based thrusts are the eventual goal, we lean more on the strength of the simulation which is air and naval combat. It simulated land combat OK, it excels in giving a pretty good picture of the other realms(including space)


Shall work on that. My understanding of air power deployment is, ironically, weak; but no doubt, there will be people who can help.

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## surya kiran

I think i get more time to work on my nonsense hobbies during work days. Maybe, tomorrow will draw out a simple scenario. non complex.



JamD said:


> @surya kiran what are the numbers like on the Indian side and what exactly would be their mission in a conflict? Landing craft? Harassment?



total i think is 18. Of these 12 odd are on the west coast. carryying capacity if approx 40 combat troops. As of now, they are for SAR and surveillance.

But for this op, they would be to quickly move troops across the marshes in a conflict. 

In the future, I think this number is going to go up. BharatForge has take tech absorption for this particular hovercraft and they have a history of quickly coming up with variants up and down.

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## Joe Shearer

surya kiran said:


> I think i get more time to work on my nonsense hobbies during work days. Maybe, tomorrow will draw out a simple scenario. non complex.
> 
> 
> 
> total i think is 18. Of these 12 odd are on the west coast. carryying capacity if approx 40 combat troops. As of now, they are for SAR and surveillance.
> 
> But for this op, they would be to quickly move troops across the marshes in a conflict.
> 
> In the future, I think this number is going to go up. BharatForge has take tech absorption for this particular hovercraft and they have a history of quickly coming up with variants up and down.


Ditcher!


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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> Ditcher!


Since my geography isnt that good mainly because I was tired of my high school teachers incessant talk on Alluvial soils, here is a map of the theatre in question in case you want to use MS paint to just dot things out for me.

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## Signalian

Joe Shearer said:


> @SQ8
> @PanzerKiel
> @surya kiran
> @MilSpec
> @Signalian
> @Desert Fox 1
> 
> Gentlemen,
> 
> I am compelled by Clio to take you to a very dark period, and beg to be forgiven for that, for the way back to normal times is not known to me.
> 
> He Who Must Not Be Named, that four-letter word that leads a crazed segment of hominidae, has been re-elected. Convention demands that he retire, but he is anxious to hang on to his modest life-style, his role in world affairs, and to the feeling of power that he relishes.
> 
> It is the year 2024, and professionals employed to watch what is going on in India have found, in newspaper reports, in social media dominated by shrill bhakts, and in magazine articles and TV programme references, that a substantial civil engineering programme has been initiated in the country. As time passes, certain more details are available. Large military bases are being built, supplementing earlier constructions, at the following locations:
> 
> Jammu
> Pathankot
> Amritsar
> Moga
> Bathinda
> Sirsa
> Jodhpur
> Jaisalmer
> Barmer
> Ahmedabad
> Bhuj
> Pune
> It is not clear what they will house, but there is apparently planned to be accommodation for 20,000 to 25,000 families at each location. Particularly large are locations at Pathankot, Moga, Bathinda, Jodhpur and Ahmedabad.


I will chip in and contribute wherever I can.

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## SQ8

Joe Shearer said:


> INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
> BULLETIN #7
> NOVEMBER 30, 2025.
> 
> It is reliably learnt that 22nd Infantry Division is transferred from Meerut to Jodhpur. 41st Artillery Division is transferred from Pune to Jodhpur.


Hold for just a second - making a new thread

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