# Afghanistan Slides to the Brink of Ethnic Warfare



## saiyan0321

Bad governance is pushing Afghanistan toward the brink of bloody civil chaos.

Afghanistan now finds itself falling toward bloody civil chaos – not because of ethnic rivalries, but because of bad governance and a lack of economic progress that could become a flashpoint for ethnic warfare.

The international community has been generous in trying to help Afghans save themselves, but donor nations should not pour more money and troops into a system that is decaying and unsalvageable. Instead, they should leverage their “kindness” to push President Ashraf Ghani into a radical decentralization of power, giving more autonomy to the provinces.

Since its inception almost three centuries ago, Afghanistan has been trapped in a vortex. It vacillates from despotism to short-lived “tranquility,” then slides back into anarchy.

Intermittent periods of peace can be attributed to foreign financial aid. Long-lasting, stable institutions have never materialized and probably never will, due to huge rifts along ethnic, religious, social and geographic lines.

The Afghan problem did not start with the emergence of the Taliban or the U.S. invasion; it can be traced to two major, historic events that date back centuries.

First, in 1499, Portuguese explorer Vasco de Gama discovered a sea route to India, which meant the region now known as Afghanistan – once a connecting point between central Asia and the west – lost its commercial importance. The second event came in 1893, when British India annexed a large portion of Afghanistan known as Pashtunistan into India with the Durand Line Treaty. That left the country land-locked.

Ever since, Afghanistan has been unable to become stable and prosperous. Instead, it served as a graveyard for a succession of governmental experiments: monarchy, republic, communism, Islamism and now a western-built democracy. All failed.

As a gateway to India, this area has been invaded by such powers as the Greeks, Persians, Arabs and Mughals who sought to conquer India. Many got bogged down and stayed.

Zahiruddin Babur, who founded the Mughal Empire in 1526 and once ruled Kabul, wrote in his memoir that Kabul’s inhabitants speak 10 different languages. That kind of diversity persists in Afghanistan.

Today the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks are the largest ethnic groups among about a dozen other minorities. For many generations, these groups lived in harmony in separate city-state regions, divided by natural boundaries – relatively self-sufficient and without major ethnic flare-ups.

After the decade-long Soviet Union invasion in the 1980’s, however, the ethnic balance shifted. The inhabitants became polarized and started bickering over the distribution of power. Civil war raged throughout the 1990’s, and an estimated 400,000 died because of infighting in Kabul.

After the overthrow of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban in 2001, then-president Hamid Karzai (himself Pashtun) attempted to end ethnic strife by appointing two powerbrokers as his vice presidents: Mohammad Qasim Fahim (a Tajik) and Karim Khalili (a Hazara).

Karzai bought the cooperation of tribal religious leaders and his opponents with cash from the CIA and Iran, but luck was a factor, too. It was not Karzai’s political ingenuity, but the Americans’ generous spending; they pumped billions of dollars into Afghanistan’s economy, which provided jobs for hundreds of thousands of young Afghans who otherwise might have joined the insurgency.

The prosperity bubble burst when the Obama administration ordered cuts in U.S. troops. Locals lost jobs, security deteriorated, and kidnapping and crime became rampant.

After the departure of 127,000 mostly American troops in 2014, the economy collapsed, unemployment soared, and Afghans fled the country.

The Afghan Unity Government, headed by Ashraf Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah, ran out of steam, and the country started falling back into its historic cycle of anarchy. The descent has been fueled by bad governance and a stagnant economy.

*Bad government:* Ghani’s detractors accuse him of micromanaging government affairs while the Taliban infiltrates major cities. The president bogs himself down with trivialities like visiting hospitals and police stations and firing low-level employees. Ghani also publicly praised Abdur Rahman Khan (1844-1901), the “Iron Amir,” as a model egalitarian, despite the fact that Abdur Rahman is viewed by historians and most Afghans as a domestically violent and geopolitically weak leader. Comparing Ghani to Abdur Rahman would be unfair, but he does seem to think that if he doesn’t adopt a new bold strategy, it will lead not only to his political death, but the death of Afghanistan.

*Stagnant economy: *Afghanistan’s unemployment rate hovers at 40 percent. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have left the country as refugees. George Packer wrote in _The New Yorker_ that Ghani is “a visionary technocrat” who “thinks 20 years ahead,” but people need help and change today. The protracted insurgency, violence, and hopelessness have a negative effect on the collective psyche of the nation. Anger spews downward and upward. The result: desperate Afghans, unable to extricate themselves from this vicious cycle, turn on each other. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”

The Tajiks blame Pashtuns for sympathizing with the Taliban, which led to the fall of major cities like Kunduz and surrounding districts. The Pashtuns accuse Uzbek militias of committing crimes against them in northern Afghanistan and charge Tajik leaders with sabotaging the peace process with the Taliban.

Some Afghans even call for Afghanistan to change its name to Khorasan (as the area was once known), which they suggest will include all ethnic groups. The word Afghan was used in the past to refer only to Pashtuns.

Another major hurdle for national unity was deep disagreement about the tazkera national ID card. Non-Pashtuns didn’t want the word Afghan to be displayed on their tazkera. Anger and frustration are widespread, and Afghan leadership is not immune to the friction.

Afghan first vice president Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, accused President Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah of plotting his assassination after his convoy was ambushed by the Taliban en route to Faryab province.

In an interview with Afghan media, Dostum complained that Ghani and Abdullah are favoring their ethnic Pashtuns and Tajiks, respectively. President Ghani suggested the accusation be prosecuted in a court of law.

Others also have turned against Ghani. Abdullah complained of a lack of access to the president, and Ahmad Zia Massoud, Special Representative of the President for Reform and Good Governance, says he is left out of the loop whenever the president appoints individuals to major government positions.

The Balkanization of Afghanistan has begun. The country is already divided north and south. The north is controlled by powerful Balkh governor Atta Muhammad Noor, and the south by police chief Abdul Raziq Achakzai. Each reportedly is untouchable and won’t take orders from President Ghani.

The U.S. and the West fail to grasp the complexity of these issues. They wrongly believe that more troops or dollars will solve the problem. In October, the European Union and international partners committed $15.2 billion to Afghanistan’s “developmental priorities,” subject to good governance and transparency.

But pouring more money and resources into the coffin of an outdated and dying political order is a path to failure.

First, the U.S. and allies need to convince President Ghani that the days of the “Iron Emir” are over. He must delegate responsibility and give more regional autonomy to provinces now, before 15 years of U.S. accomplishments in Afghanistan (democracy, human rights and freedom of speech) are totally lost.

Despite his failures, Ghani still enjoys the support of most Afghans, who see no better alternative and respect him as sincere and honest. But if Ghani remains intransigent and unwilling to accept the new realities, no amount of American money or guns will save his country.

http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/11/21/afghanistan-slides-to-the-brink-of-ethnic-warfare/

Some good points raised. Maybe a loose autonomous areas in a federation is the solution but before all of this the US must decide whether they are leaving or helping in full force bcz this experiment of half baked restraint is killing innocent people. Over 5500 men have died since march and 2200 in august. The Taliban this year increased their control 3% more. Countless innocent are dying in this ANA experiment. Plus the us also needs to decide whether they are fighting the Taliban or talking to them. You cant do both.

On top of it all Afghanistan security forces have formally complained of the Iranian regime logistically and militarily supporting the extremist activities of the Afghan Taliban group, Al Arabiya English reported on Sunday.

An Afghan official told Kabul Television that Iran's regime supports the extremist group by hosting training exercises inside the country.

A former foreign ministry official told German media outlet Deutsche Welle: “This is the first time that the Afghan authorities has accused Iran of supporting the Taliban openly. In the past, they always blamed Pakistan for this.”

Late in October, Al Arabiya English reported on how one Afghan Taliban leader revealed details of his group’s relations with Tehran.

“The movement is trying to benefit from all legitimate means to reach a regional agreement as part of the war against the American invasion; therefore, the Imara holds ongoing networks with a large number of regional and neighboring states,” he said at the time.

He said to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat in an email 19 months ago, that the movement had received drone planes from Iran, which help film suicidal operations.

http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/ter...uses-iran-regime-of-supporting-taliban-report

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20161120-afghan-officials-accuse-iran-of-supporting-taliban/

Its always somebody else's fault but never yours. First pakistan and now Iran.

This blaming needs to stop and Afghanistan must look inside as to why we are failing in curbing the insurgency and why oh why have we allowed them to take districts in the poppy rich region of Helmand uruzgan as well as districts in the mines of badakshan and they are earning hundreds of millions if nor billions from this.


@pakistani342 @Khan_21

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## WaLeEdK2

saiyan0321 said:


> Bad governance is pushing Afghanistan toward the brink of bloody civil chaos.
> 
> Afghanistan now finds itself falling toward bloody civil chaos – not because of ethnic rivalries, but because of bad governance and a lack of economic progress that could become a flashpoint for ethnic warfare.
> 
> The international community has been generous in trying to help Afghans save themselves, but donor nations should not pour more money and troops into a system that is decaying and unsalvageable. Instead, they should leverage their “kindness” to *push President Ashraf Ghani into a radical decentralization of power, giving more autonomy to the provinces.*
> 
> Since its inception almost three centuries ago, Afghanistan has been trapped in a vortex. It vacillates from despotism to short-lived “tranquility,” then slides back into anarchy.
> 
> Intermittent periods of peace can be attributed to foreign financial aid. Long-lasting, stable institutions have never materialized and probably never will, due to huge rifts along ethnic, religious, social and geographic lines.
> 
> The Afghan problem did not start with the emergence of the Taliban or the U.S. invasion; it can be traced to two major, historic events that date back centuries.
> 
> First, in 1499, Portuguese explorer Vasco de Gama discovered a sea route to India, which meant the region now known as Afghanistan – once a connecting point between central Asia and the west – lost its commercial importance. The second event came in 1893, when British India annexed a large portion of Afghanistan known as Pashtunistan into India with the Durand Line Treaty. That left the country land-locked.
> 
> Ever since, Afghanistan has been unable to become stable and prosperous. Instead, it served as a graveyard for a succession of governmental experiments: monarchy, republic, communism, Islamism and now a western-built democracy. All failed.
> 
> As a gateway to India, this area has been invaded by such powers as the Greeks, Persians, Arabs and Mughals who sought to conquer India. Many got bogged down and stayed.
> 
> Zahiruddin Babur, who founded the Mughal Empire in 1526 and once ruled Kabul, wrote in his memoir that Kabul’s inhabitants speak 10 different languages. That kind of diversity persists in Afghanistan.
> 
> Today the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks are the largest ethnic groups among about a dozen other minorities. For many generations, these groups lived in harmony in separate city-state regions, divided by natural boundaries – relatively self-sufficient and without major ethnic flare-ups.
> 
> After the decade-long Soviet Union invasion in the 1980’s, however, the ethnic balance shifted. The inhabitants became polarized and started bickering over the distribution of power. Civil war raged throughout the 1990’s, and an estimated 400,000 died because of infighting in Kabul.
> 
> After the overthrow of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban in 2001, then-president Hamid Karzai (himself Pashtun) attempted to end ethnic strife by appointing two powerbrokers as his vice presidents: Mohammad Qasim Fahim (a Tajik) and Karim Khalili (a Hazara).
> 
> Karzai bought the cooperation of tribal religious leaders and his opponents with cash from the CIA and Iran, but luck was a factor, too. It was not Karzai’s political ingenuity, but the Americans’ generous spending; they pumped billions of dollars into Afghanistan’s economy, which provided jobs for hundreds of thousands of young Afghans who otherwise might have joined the insurgency.
> 
> The prosperity bubble burst when the Obama administration ordered cuts in U.S. troops. Locals lost jobs, security deteriorated, and kidnapping and crime became rampant.
> 
> After the departure of 127,000 mostly American troops in 2014, the economy collapsed, unemployment soared, and Afghans fled the country.
> 
> The Afghan Unity Government, headed by Ashraf Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah, ran out of steam, and the country started falling back into its historic cycle of anarchy. The descent has been fueled by bad governance and a stagnant economy.
> 
> *Bad government:* Ghani’s detractors accuse him of micromanaging government affairs while the Taliban infiltrates major cities. The president bogs himself down with trivialities like visiting hospitals and police stations and firing low-level employees. Ghani also publicly praised Abdur Rahman Khan (1844-1901), the “Iron Amir,” as a model egalitarian, despite the fact that Abdur Rahman is viewed by historians and most Afghans as a domestically violent and geopolitically weak leader. Comparing Ghani to Abdur Rahman would be unfair, but he does seem to think that if he doesn’t adopt a new bold strategy, it will lead not only to his political death, but the death of Afghanistan.
> 
> *Stagnant economy: *Afghanistan’s unemployment rate hovers at 40 percent. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have left the country as refugees. George Packer wrote in _The New Yorker_ that Ghani is “a visionary technocrat” who “thinks 20 years ahead,” but people need help and change today. The protracted insurgency, violence, and hopelessness have a negative effect on the collective psyche of the nation. Anger spews downward and upward. The result: desperate Afghans, unable to extricate themselves from this vicious cycle, turn on each other. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
> 
> The Tajiks blame Pashtuns for sympathizing with the Taliban, which led to the fall of major cities like Kunduz and surrounding districts. The Pashtuns accuse Uzbek militias of committing crimes against them in northern Afghanistan and charge Tajik leaders with sabotaging the peace process with the Taliban.
> 
> Some Afghans even call for Afghanistan to change its name to Khorasan (as the area was once known), which they suggest will include all ethnic groups. The word Afghan was used in the past to refer only to Pashtuns.
> 
> Another major hurdle for national unity was deep disagreement about the tazkera national ID card. Non-Pashtuns didn’t want the word Afghan to be displayed on their tazkera. Anger and frustration are widespread, and Afghan leadership is not immune to the friction.
> 
> Afghan first vice president Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, accused President Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah of plotting his assassination after his convoy was ambushed by the Taliban en route to Faryab province.
> 
> In an interview with Afghan media, Dostum complained that Ghani and Abdullah are favoring their ethnic Pashtuns and Tajiks, respectively. President Ghani suggested the accusation be prosecuted in a court of law.
> 
> Others also have turned against Ghani. Abdullah complained of a lack of access to the president, and Ahmad Zia Massoud, Special Representative of the President for Reform and Good Governance, says he is left out of the loop whenever the president appoints individuals to major government positions.
> 
> The Balkanization of Afghanistan has begun. The country is already divided north and south. The north is controlled by powerful Balkh governor Atta Muhammad Noor, and the south by police chief Abdul Raziq Achakzai. Each reportedly is untouchable and won’t take orders from President Ghani.
> 
> The U.S. and the West fail to grasp the complexity of these issues. They wrongly believe that more troops or dollars will solve the problem. In October, the European Union and international partners committed $15.2 billion to Afghanistan’s “developmental priorities,” subject to good governance and transparency.
> 
> But pouring more money and resources into the coffin of an outdated and dying political order is a path to failure.
> 
> First, the U.S. and allies need to convince President Ghani that the days of the “Iron Emir” are over. He must delegate responsibility and give more regional autonomy to provinces now, before 15 years of U.S. accomplishments in Afghanistan (democracy, human rights and freedom of speech) are totally lost.
> 
> Despite his failures, Ghani still enjoys the support of most Afghans, who see no better alternative and respect him as sincere and honest. But if Ghani remains intransigent and unwilling to accept the new realities, no amount of American money or guns will save his country.
> 
> http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/11/21/afghanistan-slides-to-the-brink-of-ethnic-warfare/
> 
> Some good points raised. Maybe a loose autonomous areas in a federation is the solution but before all of this the US must decide whether they are leaving or helping in full force bcz this experiment of half baked restraint is killing innocent people. Over 5500 men have died since march and 2200 in august. The Taliban this year increased their control 3% more. Countless innocent are dying in this ANA experiment. Plus the us also needs to decide whether they are fighting the Taliban or talking to them. You cant do both.
> 
> On top of it all Afghanistan security forces have formally complained of the Iranian regime logistically and militarily supporting the extremist activities of the Afghan Taliban group, Al Arabiya English reported on Sunday.
> 
> An Afghan official told Kabul Television that Iran's regime supports the extremist group by hosting training exercises inside the country.
> 
> A former foreign ministry official told German media outlet Deutsche Welle: “This is the first time that the Afghan authorities has accused Iran of supporting the Taliban openly. In the past, they always blamed Pakistan for this.”
> 
> Late in October, Al Arabiya English reported on how one Afghan Taliban leader revealed details of his group’s relations with Tehran.
> 
> “The movement is trying to benefit from all legitimate means to reach a regional agreement as part of the war against the American invasion; therefore, the Imara holds ongoing networks with a large number of regional and neighboring states,” he said at the time.
> 
> He said to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat in an email 19 months ago, that the movement had received drone planes from Iran, which help film suicidal operations.
> 
> http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/ter...uses-iran-regime-of-supporting-taliban-report
> 
> https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20161120-afghan-officials-accuse-iran-of-supporting-taliban/
> 
> Its always somebody else's fault but never yours. First pakistan and now Iran.
> 
> This blaming needs to stop and Afghanistan must look inside as to why we are failing in curbing the insurgency and why oh why have we allowed them to take districts in the poppy rich region of Helmand uruzgan as well as districts in the mines of badakshan and they are earning hundreds of millions if nor billions from this.
> 
> 
> @pakistani342 @Khan_21


That is not in Ghani's interest to give more autonomy due to the fact many areas are still contested. Many might willingly join the taliban


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## Khan_21

How about it splits into several small countries and end its misery . Will be beneficial for itself and the people in its neighbourhood .

Yemen is going down the same route of splitting into North and South Yemen to end the war .

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## pakistani342

saiyan0321 said:


> Bad governance is pushing Afghanistan toward the brink of bloody civil chaos.
> 
> Afghanistan now finds itself falling toward bloody civil chaos – not because of ethnic rivalries, but because of bad governance and a lack of economic progress that could become a flashpoint for ethnic warfare.
> 
> The international community has been generous in trying to help Afghans save themselves, but donor nations should not pour more money and troops into a system that is decaying and unsalvageable. Instead, they should leverage their “kindness” to push President Ashraf Ghani into a radical decentralization of power, giving more autonomy to the provinces.
> 
> Since its inception almost three centuries ago, Afghanistan has been trapped in a vortex. It vacillates from despotism to short-lived “tranquility,” then slides back into anarchy.
> 
> Intermittent periods of peace can be attributed to foreign financial aid. Long-lasting, stable institutions have never materialized and probably never will, due to huge rifts along ethnic, religious, social and geographic lines.
> 
> The Afghan problem did not start with the emergence of the Taliban or the U.S. invasion; it can be traced to two major, historic events that date back centuries.
> 
> First, in 1499, Portuguese explorer Vasco de Gama discovered a sea route to India, which meant the region now known as Afghanistan – once a connecting point between central Asia and the west – lost its commercial importance. The second event came in 1893, when British India annexed a large portion of Afghanistan known as Pashtunistan into India with the Durand Line Treaty. That left the country land-locked.
> 
> Ever since, Afghanistan has been unable to become stable and prosperous. Instead, it served as a graveyard for a succession of governmental experiments: monarchy, republic, communism, Islamism and now a western-built democracy. All failed.
> 
> As a gateway to India, this area has been invaded by such powers as the Greeks, Persians, Arabs and Mughals who sought to conquer India. Many got bogged down and stayed.
> 
> Zahiruddin Babur, who founded the Mughal Empire in 1526 and once ruled Kabul, wrote in his memoir that Kabul’s inhabitants speak 10 different languages. That kind of diversity persists in Afghanistan.
> 
> Today the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks are the largest ethnic groups among about a dozen other minorities. For many generations, these groups lived in harmony in separate city-state regions, divided by natural boundaries – relatively self-sufficient and without major ethnic flare-ups.
> 
> After the decade-long Soviet Union invasion in the 1980’s, however, the ethnic balance shifted. The inhabitants became polarized and started bickering over the distribution of power. Civil war raged throughout the 1990’s, and an estimated 400,000 died because of infighting in Kabul.
> 
> After the overthrow of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban in 2001, then-president Hamid Karzai (himself Pashtun) attempted to end ethnic strife by appointing two powerbrokers as his vice presidents: Mohammad Qasim Fahim (a Tajik) and Karim Khalili (a Hazara).
> 
> Karzai bought the cooperation of tribal religious leaders and his opponents with cash from the CIA and Iran, but luck was a factor, too. It was not Karzai’s political ingenuity, but the Americans’ generous spending; they pumped billions of dollars into Afghanistan’s economy, which provided jobs for hundreds of thousands of young Afghans who otherwise might have joined the insurgency.
> 
> The prosperity bubble burst when the Obama administration ordered cuts in U.S. troops. Locals lost jobs, security deteriorated, and kidnapping and crime became rampant.
> 
> After the departure of 127,000 mostly American troops in 2014, the economy collapsed, unemployment soared, and Afghans fled the country.
> 
> The Afghan Unity Government, headed by Ashraf Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah, ran out of steam, and the country started falling back into its historic cycle of anarchy. The descent has been fueled by bad governance and a stagnant economy.
> 
> *Bad government:* Ghani’s detractors accuse him of micromanaging government affairs while the Taliban infiltrates major cities. The president bogs himself down with trivialities like visiting hospitals and police stations and firing low-level employees. Ghani also publicly praised Abdur Rahman Khan (1844-1901), the “Iron Amir,” as a model egalitarian, despite the fact that Abdur Rahman is viewed by historians and most Afghans as a domestically violent and geopolitically weak leader. Comparing Ghani to Abdur Rahman would be unfair, but he does seem to think that if he doesn’t adopt a new bold strategy, it will lead not only to his political death, but the death of Afghanistan.
> 
> *Stagnant economy: *Afghanistan’s unemployment rate hovers at 40 percent. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have left the country as refugees. George Packer wrote in _The New Yorker_ that Ghani is “a visionary technocrat” who “thinks 20 years ahead,” but people need help and change today. The protracted insurgency, violence, and hopelessness have a negative effect on the collective psyche of the nation. Anger spews downward and upward. The result: desperate Afghans, unable to extricate themselves from this vicious cycle, turn on each other. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
> 
> The Tajiks blame Pashtuns for sympathizing with the Taliban, which led to the fall of major cities like Kunduz and surrounding districts. The Pashtuns accuse Uzbek militias of committing crimes against them in northern Afghanistan and charge Tajik leaders with sabotaging the peace process with the Taliban.
> 
> Some Afghans even call for Afghanistan to change its name to Khorasan (as the area was once known), which they suggest will include all ethnic groups. The word Afghan was used in the past to refer only to Pashtuns.
> 
> Another major hurdle for national unity was deep disagreement about the tazkera national ID card. Non-Pashtuns didn’t want the word Afghan to be displayed on their tazkera. Anger and frustration are widespread, and Afghan leadership is not immune to the friction.
> 
> Afghan first vice president Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, accused President Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah of plotting his assassination after his convoy was ambushed by the Taliban en route to Faryab province.
> 
> In an interview with Afghan media, Dostum complained that Ghani and Abdullah are favoring their ethnic Pashtuns and Tajiks, respectively. President Ghani suggested the accusation be prosecuted in a court of law.
> 
> Others also have turned against Ghani. Abdullah complained of a lack of access to the president, and Ahmad Zia Massoud, Special Representative of the President for Reform and Good Governance, says he is left out of the loop whenever the president appoints individuals to major government positions.
> 
> The Balkanization of Afghanistan has begun. The country is already divided north and south. The north is controlled by powerful Balkh governor Atta Muhammad Noor, and the south by police chief Abdul Raziq Achakzai. Each reportedly is untouchable and won’t take orders from President Ghani.
> 
> The U.S. and the West fail to grasp the complexity of these issues. They wrongly believe that more troops or dollars will solve the problem. In October, the European Union and international partners committed $15.2 billion to Afghanistan’s “developmental priorities,” subject to good governance and transparency.
> 
> But pouring more money and resources into the coffin of an outdated and dying political order is a path to failure.
> 
> First, the U.S. and allies need to convince President Ghani that the days of the “Iron Emir” are over. He must delegate responsibility and give more regional autonomy to provinces now, before 15 years of U.S. accomplishments in Afghanistan (democracy, human rights and freedom of speech) are totally lost.
> 
> Despite his failures, Ghani still enjoys the support of most Afghans, who see no better alternative and respect him as sincere and honest. But if Ghani remains intransigent and unwilling to accept the new realities, no amount of American money or guns will save his country.
> 
> http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/11/21/afghanistan-slides-to-the-brink-of-ethnic-warfare/
> 
> Some good points raised. Maybe a loose autonomous areas in a federation is the solution but before all of this the US must decide whether they are leaving or helping in full force bcz this experiment of half baked restraint is killing innocent people. Over 5500 men have died since march and 2200 in august. The Taliban this year increased their control 3% more. Countless innocent are dying in this ANA experiment. Plus the us also needs to decide whether they are fighting the Taliban or talking to them. You cant do both.
> 
> On top of it all Afghanistan security forces have formally complained of the Iranian regime logistically and militarily supporting the extremist activities of the Afghan Taliban group, Al Arabiya English reported on Sunday.
> 
> An Afghan official told Kabul Television that Iran's regime supports the extremist group by hosting training exercises inside the country.
> 
> A former foreign ministry official told German media outlet Deutsche Welle: “This is the first time that the Afghan authorities has accused Iran of supporting the Taliban openly. In the past, they always blamed Pakistan for this.”
> 
> Late in October, Al Arabiya English reported on how one Afghan Taliban leader revealed details of his group’s relations with Tehran.
> 
> “The movement is trying to benefit from all legitimate means to reach a regional agreement as part of the war against the American invasion; therefore, the Imara holds ongoing networks with a large number of regional and neighboring states,” he said at the time.
> 
> He said to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat in an email 19 months ago, that the movement had received drone planes from Iran, which help film suicidal operations.
> 
> http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/ter...uses-iran-regime-of-supporting-taliban-report
> 
> https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20161120-afghan-officials-accuse-iran-of-supporting-taliban/
> 
> Its always somebody else's fault but never yours. First pakistan and now Iran.
> 
> This blaming needs to stop and Afghanistan must look inside as to why we are failing in curbing the insurgency and why oh why have we allowed them to take districts in the poppy rich region of Helmand uruzgan as well as districts in the mines of badakshan and they are earning hundreds of millions if nor billions from this.
> 
> 
> @pakistani342 @Khan_21



The situation in Afghanistan, from what I hear, is not good. It's a new level of hopelessness and fatigue people now speak off.

.

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## saiyan0321

pakistani342 said:


> The situation in Afghanistan, from what I hear, is not good



News reports aren't very encouraging either. This year has turned out like 2015 with losses on both manfront as well as territorial. In fact the rise of ISIS makes it worse. 

On top of it all the anti refugee sentiment that is found all over the world is pressing the afghan government while the world and especially the west is tired of the afghan government's corruption and incompetence in handling the insurgency as well as military losses. 

Couple this with the callous attitude US is displaying in Afghanistan ( extremely controlled involvement militarily as they interfere only when provincial capital is about to fall not too mention their approach towards this game of playing ANA upfront which has resulted in deaths only), leads to believe that the situation will find it difficult to improve. 

With this the old inherent issues if ethnicism in Afghanistan are starting to peak will only add to quagmire that is Afghanistan. 


pakistani342 said:


> It's a new level of hopelessness and fatigue people now speak off.



Can't really blame them. 40 years of war and still looks no end in sight. New generations are fighting a war now and this will continue until a major deal is not brokered where power is shared and the Taliban will not come to the table until they are made hopeless and they will not become hopeless by gaining 37% of the territory, earning from the poppy fields of Helmand and uruzgan and the mines of badakshan and with the opposition losing capitals and 5500+ men since march.

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## hussain0216

And in the midst of all this they want to create a deep emnity with Pakistan


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## Arbiter

And it's only going to get worse. Before Afghans could enter Pakistan without any documents, and make a living there. But soon that will stop as well and increasing amout of refugees returing back will only compound the problem. Due to hostality towards Pakistan by its government and people they have shot themselves in the foot.


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## koolio

I hope and pray situation gets better in Afghanistan, Pakistan cannot afford to take any more refugees, If the incompetent Afghani government decided to co-operate with Pakistan, things would have been much better, but sadly they have decided to become anti Pakistan.


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## mrrehan

saiyan0321 said:


> Bad governance is pushing Afghanistan toward the brink of bloody civil chaos.
> 
> Afghanistan now finds itself falling toward bloody civil chaos – not because of ethnic rivalries, but because of bad governance and a lack of economic progress that could become a flashpoint for ethnic warfare.
> 
> The international community has been generous in trying to help Afghans save themselves, but donor nations should not pour more money and troops into a system that is decaying and unsalvageable. Instead, they should leverage their “kindness” to push President Ashraf Ghani into a radical decentralization of power, giving more autonomy to the provinces.
> 
> Since its inception almost three centuries ago, Afghanistan has been trapped in a vortex. It vacillates from despotism to short-lived “tranquility,” then slides back into anarchy.
> 
> Intermittent periods of peace can be attributed to foreign financial aid. Long-lasting, stable institutions have never materialized and probably never will, due to huge rifts along ethnic, religious, social and geographic lines.
> 
> The Afghan problem did not start with the emergence of the Taliban or the U.S. invasion; it can be traced to two major, historic events that date back centuries.
> 
> First, in 1499, Portuguese explorer Vasco de Gama discovered a sea route to India, which meant the region now known as Afghanistan – once a connecting point between central Asia and the west – lost its commercial importance. The second event came in 1893, when British India annexed a large portion of Afghanistan known as Pashtunistan into India with the Durand Line Treaty. That left the country land-locked.
> 
> Ever since, Afghanistan has been unable to become stable and prosperous. Instead, it served as a graveyard for a succession of governmental experiments: monarchy, republic, communism, Islamism and now a western-built democracy. All failed.
> 
> As a gateway to India, this area has been invaded by such powers as the Greeks, Persians, Arabs and Mughals who sought to conquer India. Many got bogged down and stayed.
> 
> Zahiruddin Babur, who founded the Mughal Empire in 1526 and once ruled Kabul, wrote in his memoir that Kabul’s inhabitants speak 10 different languages. That kind of diversity persists in Afghanistan.
> 
> Today the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks are the largest ethnic groups among about a dozen other minorities. For many generations, these groups lived in harmony in separate city-state regions, divided by natural boundaries – relatively self-sufficient and without major ethnic flare-ups.
> 
> After the decade-long Soviet Union invasion in the 1980’s, however, the ethnic balance shifted. The inhabitants became polarized and started bickering over the distribution of power. Civil war raged throughout the 1990’s, and an estimated 400,000 died because of infighting in Kabul.
> 
> After the overthrow of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban in 2001, then-president Hamid Karzai (himself Pashtun) attempted to end ethnic strife by appointing two powerbrokers as his vice presidents: Mohammad Qasim Fahim (a Tajik) and Karim Khalili (a Hazara).
> 
> Karzai bought the cooperation of tribal religious leaders and his opponents with cash from the CIA and Iran, but luck was a factor, too. It was not Karzai’s political ingenuity, but the Americans’ generous spending; they pumped billions of dollars into Afghanistan’s economy, which provided jobs for hundreds of thousands of young Afghans who otherwise might have joined the insurgency.
> 
> The prosperity bubble burst when the Obama administration ordered cuts in U.S. troops. Locals lost jobs, security deteriorated, and kidnapping and crime became rampant.
> 
> After the departure of 127,000 mostly American troops in 2014, the economy collapsed, unemployment soared, and Afghans fled the country.
> 
> The Afghan Unity Government, headed by Ashraf Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah, ran out of steam, and the country started falling back into its historic cycle of anarchy. The descent has been fueled by bad governance and a stagnant economy.
> 
> *Bad government:* Ghani’s detractors accuse him of micromanaging government affairs while the Taliban infiltrates major cities. The president bogs himself down with trivialities like visiting hospitals and police stations and firing low-level employees. Ghani also publicly praised Abdur Rahman Khan (1844-1901), the “Iron Amir,” as a model egalitarian, despite the fact that Abdur Rahman is viewed by historians and most Afghans as a domestically violent and geopolitically weak leader. Comparing Ghani to Abdur Rahman would be unfair, but he does seem to think that if he doesn’t adopt a new bold strategy, it will lead not only to his political death, but the death of Afghanistan.
> 
> *Stagnant economy: *Afghanistan’s unemployment rate hovers at 40 percent. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have left the country as refugees. George Packer wrote in _The New Yorker_ that Ghani is “a visionary technocrat” who “thinks 20 years ahead,” but people need help and change today. The protracted insurgency, violence, and hopelessness have a negative effect on the collective psyche of the nation. Anger spews downward and upward. The result: desperate Afghans, unable to extricate themselves from this vicious cycle, turn on each other. “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
> 
> The Tajiks blame Pashtuns for sympathizing with the Taliban, which led to the fall of major cities like Kunduz and surrounding districts. The Pashtuns accuse Uzbek militias of committing crimes against them in northern Afghanistan and charge Tajik leaders with sabotaging the peace process with the Taliban.
> 
> Some Afghans even call for Afghanistan to change its name to Khorasan (as the area was once known), which they suggest will include all ethnic groups. The word Afghan was used in the past to refer only to Pashtuns.
> 
> Another major hurdle for national unity was deep disagreement about the tazkera national ID card. Non-Pashtuns didn’t want the word Afghan to be displayed on their tazkera. Anger and frustration are widespread, and Afghan leadership is not immune to the friction.
> 
> Afghan first vice president Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, accused President Ghani and his CEO Abdullah Abdullah of plotting his assassination after his convoy was ambushed by the Taliban en route to Faryab province.
> 
> In an interview with Afghan media, Dostum complained that Ghani and Abdullah are favoring their ethnic Pashtuns and Tajiks, respectively. President Ghani suggested the accusation be prosecuted in a court of law.
> 
> Others also have turned against Ghani. Abdullah complained of a lack of access to the president, and Ahmad Zia Massoud, Special Representative of the President for Reform and Good Governance, says he is left out of the loop whenever the president appoints individuals to major government positions.
> 
> The Balkanization of Afghanistan has begun. The country is already divided north and south. The north is controlled by powerful Balkh governor Atta Muhammad Noor, and the south by police chief Abdul Raziq Achakzai. Each reportedly is untouchable and won’t take orders from President Ghani.
> 
> The U.S. and the West fail to grasp the complexity of these issues. They wrongly believe that more troops or dollars will solve the problem. In October, the European Union and international partners committed $15.2 billion to Afghanistan’s “developmental priorities,” subject to good governance and transparency.
> 
> But pouring more money and resources into the coffin of an outdated and dying political order is a path to failure.
> 
> First, the U.S. and allies need to convince President Ghani that the days of the “Iron Emir” are over. He must delegate responsibility and give more regional autonomy to provinces now, before 15 years of U.S. accomplishments in Afghanistan (democracy, human rights and freedom of speech) are totally lost.
> 
> Despite his failures, Ghani still enjoys the support of most Afghans, who see no better alternative and respect him as sincere and honest. But if Ghani remains intransigent and unwilling to accept the new realities, no amount of American money or guns will save his country.
> 
> http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/11/21/afghanistan-slides-to-the-brink-of-ethnic-warfare/
> 
> Some good points raised. Maybe a loose autonomous areas in a federation is the solution but before all of this the US must decide whether they are leaving or helping in full force bcz this experiment of half baked restraint is killing innocent people. Over 5500 men have died since march and 2200 in august. The Taliban this year increased their control 3% more. Countless innocent are dying in this ANA experiment. Plus the us also needs to decide whether they are fighting the Taliban or talking to them. You cant do both.
> 
> On top of it all Afghanistan security forces have formally complained of the Iranian regime logistically and militarily supporting the extremist activities of the Afghan Taliban group, Al Arabiya English reported on Sunday.
> 
> An Afghan official told Kabul Television that Iran's regime supports the extremist group by hosting training exercises inside the country.
> 
> A former foreign ministry official told German media outlet Deutsche Welle: “This is the first time that the Afghan authorities has accused Iran of supporting the Taliban openly. In the past, they always blamed Pakistan for this.”
> 
> Late in October, Al Arabiya English reported on how one Afghan Taliban leader revealed details of his group’s relations with Tehran.
> 
> “The movement is trying to benefit from all legitimate means to reach a regional agreement as part of the war against the American invasion; therefore, the Imara holds ongoing networks with a large number of regional and neighboring states,” he said at the time.
> 
> He said to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat in an email 19 months ago, that the movement had received drone planes from Iran, which help film suicidal operations.
> 
> http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/ter...uses-iran-regime-of-supporting-taliban-report
> 
> https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20161120-afghan-officials-accuse-iran-of-supporting-taliban/
> 
> Its always somebody else's fault but never yours. First pakistan and now Iran.
> 
> This blaming needs to stop and Afghanistan must look inside as to why we are failing in curbing the insurgency and why oh why have we allowed them to take districts in the poppy rich region of Helmand uruzgan as well as districts in the mines of badakshan and they are earning hundreds of millions if nor billions from this.
> 
> 
> @pakistani342 @Khan_21



Even then some peoples point of view will be "This is because of Pakistan"


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## TMA

koolio said:


> I hope and pray situation gets better in Afghanistan, Pakistan cannot afford to take any more refugees, If the incompetent Afghani government decided to co-operate with Pakistan, things would have been much better, but sadly they have decided to become anti Pakistan.


They were always against Pakistan.


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## Kabira

Instead of civil war they should go for federation with provinces, presidential system isn't made for Afghanistan. Kabul should be made federal capital.


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## MadDog

Afghanistan faces two dilemmas due to its name. 1st Afghan is another ethnic group name for Pushtuns, yet Afghanistan is multi ethnic with other ethnicities feeling uncomfortable. 2nd 3 times more Pushtuns exist in Pakistan than in Afghanistan, so it isnt truly Afghanistan in the true sense !!!

The other economic reasons have been mentioned in the article why it lost importance interms of geoeconomics. I believe it should be renamed to Khorasan. All regional and great powers should sit with Afghan Taliban and all ethnic groups and settle everything. In long term, Khorasan can be divided into spheres of influences (not annexed) between Pakistan , Iran, Tajkistan and Uzbekistan for certain time until stability returns !!!

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## Imad.Khan

The only solution for peace in Afghanistan is for different ethnic majority areas to join up with their respective countries, for example

Tajik majority areas to join up with Tajikistan
Uzbek majority areas to join with Uzbekistan
Turkmans to join with Turkmanistan
Pukhtoons, Balochis, Nuristanis, areas to join with Pakistan

That leaves Hazaras and Aimaqs. They can be given the option of joining which ever country they wish to join


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