# Pakistan's repayments on CPEC to peak at $5b in 2022: chief economist



## Kabira

*ISLAMABAD: 

Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.*


China has pledged to invest up to $57 billion in Pakistan’s rail, road and energy infrastructure through its vast modern-day “Silk Road” network of trade routes linking Asia with Europe and Africa.

*Officials expect a huge uptick in trade between the two nations once Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is functional and work on motorways is finished allowing goods to cross the Himalayas to and from China’s western Xinjiang province.*

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship “Belt and Road” project, has been credited with helping revive Pakistan’s sluggish economy, but investors have raised concerns that Pakistan’s currency could come under severe pressure once debt repayments begin and Chinese firms start taking profits home.

*China says Silk Road plan is not tied to presidency*

Nadeem Javaid, who advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government and works closely on the CPEC programme, told Reuters that such fears are misplaced as Islamabad would earn vast fees from charging vehicles moving goods from and to China.

Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects up to 4% of global trade to pass through it by 2020.

*“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”*

He said China has huge incentives to transport oil and other goods bound for its western regions through Pakistan as the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor shaves some 9,500 miles (15,000 km) off other traditional routes.

It doesn’t take long to imagine the savings on the many millions of litres of fuel, he said.

Investors are watching Pakistan’s ballooning current account deficit, which widened by more than 160% to $6.1 billion in the nine months to March, largely due to imports of machinery for big CPEC projects.

*Javaid said debt repayments and profit repatriation from CPEC projects will begin in 2019, totalling about $1.5-$1.9 billion, and rising to $3-$3.5 billion by the following year.*

*“It would be low in the beginning, and in 2022 it will peak at around $5 billion – not more than that,”* said the chief economist, adding that the government does not think it likely that Pakistan will face a balance of payments crisis.

The last such crisis in 2013 saw Islamabad turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.

Javaid said the CPEC should boost economic growth, which he expects to hit 5.2% in 2016-17. Exports should also pick up once CPEC power projects totalling 7,000 megawatts come online and reduce the often crippling energy shortages.

Deepening political and military ties between Pakistan and China have helped closer financial integration, too, with Chinese companies starting to buy Pakistani firms and land.

Javaid said the two countries have also discussed using a currency swap agreement between their central banks to create a mechanism to avoid any third currency in international transactions.

“If some mechanism is going to be finalised on that, it will work as a buffer or a cushion that’s going to basically avoid or prevent any kind of default that could happen in unforeseen circumstances.”

But he added, “It’s only a contingency arrangement in case something bad happens.”
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1406335/pakistans-repayments-cpec-peak-5b-2022-chief-economist/

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## Morpheus

Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.

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## Kabira

Tickler said:


> Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.



If security isn't a issue then forget about Chinese/locals, even foreigners will come to invest in Gwadar.

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## Morpheus

save_ghenda said:


> If security isn't a issue then forget about Chinese/locals, even foreigners will come to invest in Gwadar.



Definitely the security has improved a lot in past years. Yes we still have mobile snatching, people robbed at gun point, but that happens everywhere in the world. Terrorist attacks are down significantly, compared to 4 years ago. They only thing right standing between us and eternal prosperity is, corruption. If right now we can somehow get a proper justice system working, even the mentioned crime will drop. It all comes down to proper educated uncorrupt leader right now, and i don't see any possible candidates for it right now.

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## American Pakistani

Tickler said:


> Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.



Exactly. Pakistanis should take advantage of huge population, manpower is there and now infrastructure is an addition to it. More easy to export goods.

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## Maxpane

how much we earn as transit fee? and how much debt we owe
?


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## SHAH820

Maxpane said:


> how much we earn as transit fee? and how much debt we owe
> ?


debt is about $22 billion for CPEC but overall we own about more then $70 billion
from transit only for oil and gas its about $5 billion but for other products chinese goods our goods trade coming from EU ,africa middle east will be more cant tell right now

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## POPEYE-Sailor

Tickler said:


> Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.



and also generate 700,000 jobs as well.


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## RangeMaster

The power projects,infrastructure and developments ongoing with CPEC are real benefit for us.Same was going in States during 60s.Once they got their infrastructure completed,their worries about economy were over.
What we've to pay us not our concern.Atleast we are getting a brand new port that can compete with Jibl Ali,electricity the lack of which shortened our growth rate by 2.5,infrastructure which is basic in one's economic progress.
Chinese know how to get work done.Our men've got jobs too but the primary posts are occupied by chinese cause they are well aware of our common habit"corruption".

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## Maxpane

SHAH820 said:


> debt is about $22 billion for CPEC but overall we own about more then $70 billion
> from transit only for oil and gas its about $5 billion but for other products chinese goods our goods trade coming from EU ,africa middle east will be more cant tell right now


thats not bad . hope we can overcome debt problem


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## Counterpunch

Tickler said:


> Definitely the security has improved a lot in past years. Yes we still have mobile snatching, people robbed at gun point, but that happens everywhere in the world. Terrorist attacks are down significantly, compared to 4 years ago. They only thing right standing between us and eternal prosperity is, corruption. If right now we can somehow get a proper justice system working, even the mentioned crime will drop. It all comes down to proper educated uncorrupt leader right now, and i don't see any possible candidates for it right now.


Very well put. And if I may add to it, it is solely the Corruption that allowed terrorism to grow the way it did. There are known cases of FC personnel allowing truck loads un-check only against a few mobile talktime scratch cards. There are instances of embassy vehicles stopped by Police that were being used for transporting weapon inside sensitive areas, only to be released upon calls from interior ministry

Unless we declare corruption equivalent to terrorism we won't see any worth mentioning improvement. Corruption and violence are linked, just like one loosening the studs of a vehicle and later it meeting a violent accident which was just bound to happen owing to the loosened studs. We have a good platform in the form of Op Radd ul Fassad which can take corruption in its ambit pretty easily, and the power the military has in the system will enable it to pass any number of laws and regulations if it really wills

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## naveedahmed86

Selling numbers. Nothing concrete til now


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## Well.wisher

Interest is curse .

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## Talwar e Pakistan

save_ghenda said:


> *“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”*



This is huge, and it's only toll tax and rental fees alone. That's enough to build around 7 Burj Al Khalifas a day (just an example).

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## DJ_Viper

SHAH820 said:


> debt is about $22 billion for CPEC but overall we own about more then $70 billion
> from transit only for oil and gas its about $5 billion but for other products chinese goods our goods trade coming from EU ,africa middle east will be more cant tell right now



Panama Canal provides much less people goods and services. It generates about $ 5-8 billion a year in just ship tolls and its not a port, just a route. Gawader would be a port, which comes with an international trade network going to China and the Central Russian states (plus 200 million of Pakistani consumers). So getting $ 10-15 billion a year from this route and associated port isn't a big deal.

Pakistan has almost 675 mile wide Coastline. A comparison of the area would mean in the US, the East Coast starting from North Caroline to Connecticut. The trade volume in this area is estimates around $ 700 million to a trillion, with this region's population being around 75-80 million!! As there are large port districts (a district has more than one large port). 

So Pakistan should be focused on building the next port project as it has over 200 million as consumers and two ports aren't enough. But regardless, generating $ 10-15 or even $ 20 billion in transit fees and port operations, in the next few years, should be very easy.



ahmedlatif said:


> and also generate 700,000 jobs as well.



Its well over 2 million jobs initially by 2022. But then, you'd have new Cities being built across the route and that would require residents, new schools, hospitals, airports, doctors, engineers, constructions companies and workers, hotels, gas stations, grocery stores. I don't think anyone here understands how big of an economic boom is about to happen in Pakistan in the next 5-7 years!

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## Vigneshwara

The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.


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## Stuttgart001

Vigneshwara said:


> The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.


A lot of nations benefit from business with China, like Japan , Germany, Australia ,SOK , etc.
Why are you always talking BS ? 
Is that really hard for you guy to be rational and open-minded ?



DJ_Viper said:


> Its well over 2 million jobs initially by 2022. But then, you'd have new Cities being built across the route and that would require residents, new schools, hospitals, airports, doctors, engineers, constructions companies and workers, hotels, gas stations, grocery stores. I don't think anyone here understands how big of an economic boom is about to happen in Pakistan in the next 5-7 years!


Yeah.
Gwadar will be another Shanghai or Singapore .
Pakisitan bro. 
Work hard and make your state be a paradise.

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## Tom M

Stuttgart001 said:


> A lot of nations benefit from business with China, like Japan , Germany, Australia ,SOK , etc.
> Why are you always talking BS ?
> Is that really hard for you guy to be rational and open-minded ?



No. Actually I sincerely wish that CPEC prove to be a real game changer for Pakistan Economy. But don't you think Pakistan should thing beyond China as well, dependence only on China is it ?? It's never a good idea to put all you eggs in one basket.


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## Stuttgart001

Tom M said:


> No. Actually I sincerely wish that CPEC prove to be a real game changer for Pakistan Economy. But don't you think Pakistan should thing beyond China as well, dependence only on China is it ?? It's never a good idea to put all you eggs in one basket.


Stop nonsense.
The allies of US nearly 100% depend on US in economy and defense.
Look at how advanced they are , Japan, SOK ,Singapore ..etc.

Furthermore,China and Paskitan depend each other to rebuild the silk road ,and without Pakistan, China couldn't make it.
CPEC is a part of OBOR ,that is a big and international project that lots of countries cooperate together on, a significant step of globalisation .
China invests the infrastructure of Pakistan to make it more attractive to other nation's capital.

The first step is the hardest for everything and China has the will and strength to help Pakistan
move forward the first step in the process of his modernization.

It is OK that India doesn't participate, but stop spouting shit and just stand aside and watch us doing practical things.

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## STEVEN囧

Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.



Vigneshwara said:


> The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.

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## Stuttgart001

STEVEN囧 said:


> Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.


The indian businessman get used to take advantage of others and so cheap.
At last, these tiny tricks would make them lose more.

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## Tom M

Stuttgart001 said:


> The indian businessman get used to take advantage of others and so cheap.
> At last, these tiny tricks would make them lose more.



*And do you seriously think India and Indian business are on the loosing side of history ?? LOL *

If at-least the Chinese government thought so, there wouldn't have been an article in this prominent Chinese daily.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1046327.shtml



> China and India are two neighboring countries with the largest populations in the world, an unusual geographical phenomenon. With a population of 1.38 billion, China's GDP grew 6.7 percent to more than $10 trillion in 2016, while the Indian Central Statistics Office estimated India's GDP growth for the full fiscal 2016-17 at 7.1 per cent.
> 
> While Indian GDP may lag far behind, the country remains a potential emerging market that has high attractiveness for global capital. A survey by Ernst & Young (EY) ranked India as the most attractive investment destination in the world. Among 500 executives from multinational companies involved in the survey, 60 percent considered India one of the top three investment destinations in 2015. The country's vast domestic market, low labor costs and skilled labor market are its most attractive features. As China's demographic dividend diminishes, India, with half of its population below the age of 25, is poised to take advantage.
> 
> An increasing number of Chinese companies have invested in India in recent years, covering such sectors as hardware, software and marketing. Smartphone manufacturers like Vivo, OPPO and Lenovo have already entered the Indian market; while mobile tools like SHAREit, UC Browser, Cheetah Mobile and APUS have also been downloaded by vast amounts of users. It is noteworthy that Chinese companies' investment in India has shifted from simply marketing to research and development (R&D). For instance, Chinese telecom company Huawei Technologies Co invested $170 million to open an R&D facility in Bengaluru, and announced its plan to join Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" campaign.
> 
> Just as what happened with China in the past, the changes that are taking place in India may also point to great potential for development. With a large population of young people, which is not only the labor force but also a potential consumer group, India has the possibility of seeing explosive economic growth in the future. Therefore, we must pay close attention to the development of this unfamiliar neighbor.
> 
> One of our researchers raised a question: If India decided to copy China, what impact would it have and what should China do? By copying China, India may also develop an Internet economy and boost its infrastructure construction, along with investment-driven growth. In other words, India may turn itself into China 2.0, and let global investors decide whether to invest in China or India.
> 
> *In our opinion, if India intentionally creates a competitive situation in front of global investors, it will pose a challenge for China. Because generally speaking, India does have the conditions to copy China's economic growth model thanks to its vast size and market, low labor costs and large population, which are all similar to China's conditions. In fact, based on the EY report, global investors are currently undecided.
> 
> Moreover, there are growing signs that India is succeeding in attracting more and more investment, which China should take seriously.*
> 
> The Indian government appears confident about attracting investment. At present, India is committed to solar energy development, which attracts a large number of foreign investors. Prime Minister Modi hopes to boost the usage of clean energy over fossil fuels by building massive solar parks and is targeting $100 billion in investment in solar energy in the next five years, with the backing of loans from the World Bank. No other country could compete with India in supporting investors in the solar economy.
> 
> It should be pointed out that China has not conducted enough studies on India. From the perspective of think tanks, China cannot wait until India grows into an apparently promising competitor before discussing how to deal with the situation.
> 
> As such, China should develop a more effective growth strategy for the new era or it may become an unfortunate bystander watching India's success.
> 
> China needs to ponder and study the rise of the Indian economy carefully. With a young population, it is entirely possible for the emerging market economy to become China 2.0 to gain the attention of world capital.
> 
> _The article was compiled based on a report by Beijing-based private strategic think tank Anbound. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn_
> *Newspaper headline: China should be wary of Indian competition*





STEVEN囧 said:


> Indian members here should not be blinded by historical hatred and feud.Nowadays we talk about collaboration and cooperation,try our best to reduce the poverty and illiteracy.So it is no use to drive a wedge between China and other nations.Indian actually is a smart businessman in my view because I have some Indian customers.But frankly you always lose your edge to get a win-win situation with Russian in terms of military business but with China in terms of private business.



Yep, there is parity and a big deficit does exist, but does that mean it's something achievable ?? In fact if you can go be the statistics of last few decades, there are certain areas where the gap has by and large reduced and some sectors where we have outperformed, for example *Generic Medicines* etc. 

So telling that India always loose is technically not fully right. 



Stuttgart001 said:


> Yeah.
> Gwadar will be another Shanghai or Singapore .
> Pakisitan bro.
> Work hard and make your state be a paradise.



Never in short to mid-term as long as tight competition is available in and around the region. But yes, in long term it is very prospective.


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## STEVEN囧

Tom M said:


> *And do you seriously think India and Indian business are on the loosing side of history ?? LOL *
> 
> If at-least the Chinese government thought so, there wouldn't have been an article in this prominent Chinese daily.
> 
> http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1046327.shtml
> 
> 
> 
> Yes.India develops very fast within years since Prime minister Modi came into power.India has a great superiority of labor resource and a large market like China.But frankly China is more opened to foregin direct investment,threshold is lower and restriction is less.Technology and Industry is updated more in India nowadays but market could prompt your pace of transformation and development.I suggest India should reduce the likes of red tapes and crack down on the corruption to open the market and facilitate competition.It could raise more and more technical workers for yourself.Frankly I am so sorry that India would rather stand up but participate in the OBOR.If we just consider ourselves,there is no chance for the OBOR summit this month.If it is not win-win cooperation,nobody would resonate.So don't consider this route with bias.Aisa is ours!
> 
> 
> Yep, there is parity and a big deficit does exist, but does that mean it's something achievable ?? In fact if you can go be the statistics of last few decades, there are certain areas where the gap has by and large reduced and some sectors where we have outperformed, for example *Generic Medicines* etc.
> 
> So telling that India always loose is technically not fully right.
> 
> 
> 
> Never in short to mid-term as long as tight competition is available in and around the region. But yes, in long term it is very prospective.


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## MULUBJA

Tickler said:


> Here is something people don't get. Gawadar port is not just for China. Us Pakistani can use it as well. Local exports will rise. People can start opening business for the solo purpose for exporting, which would be relatively easier to do, now with a much better infrastructure. So money will come from here as well. My advice to people, start thinking like entrepreneurs. Think about owning your own business, rather then working for one.



Everything you quoted can be done without Gwadar with many other Pakistani ports.

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## AnnoyingOrange

Pakistan has lost 180 cloth mills in past one year.. exports are down to a new low ...balance of payments is going heywire... CPEC is the latest Jhunjhuna that Pakistan leadership has given to Pakistani Awam to play for some time while leaders are busy making money from kickbacks.

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## DJ_Viper

Vigneshwara said:


> The Chinese are very good at business, they always look for win-win situation the only problem is both the wins would be theirs.



I guess I can see your point. Win 1: they connected their strongest ally with the global trade and ensured that from Central Russia till Western China, a huge portion of the trade goes through Pakistan. Which makes them money.
Win 2: Their strongest ally will only help them further and use its own influence on the ME to help the Chinese grow more. Which means, many billions for China and many more for Pakistan.

I guess you didn't think about win # 3: Pakistan will be becoming one of the top 15 economies. Which means they will actually have a stronger defense industry (building Jets to Combat heli's as they just signed a deal with Turkey) and will be using one of the largest and youngest labor pool (over80 million people between the ages of 15-24 years and male), to send overseas and grow their $$ footprint even more. This labor can speak English, can do had work and engineering / IT work, etc, etc. Which then puts a dent in India's core export.....aka, the labor. So you are right. Chinese are smart businessmen and ONLY look at their and Pakistan's interests!

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## Vigneshwara

DJ_Viper said:


> I guess I can see your point. Win 1: they connected their strongest ally with the global trade and ensured that from Central Russia till Western China, a huge portion of the trade goes through Pakistan. Which makes them money.
> Win 2: Their strongest ally will only help them further and use its own influence on the ME to help the Chinese grow more. Which means, many billions for China and many more for Pakistan.
> 
> I guess you didn't think about win # 3: Pakistan will be becoming one of the top 15 economies. Which means they will actually have a stronger defense industry (building Jets to Combat heli's as they just signed a deal with Turkey) and will be using one of the largest and youngest labor pool (over80 million people between the ages of 15-24 years and male), to send overseas and grow their $$ footprint even more. This labor can speak English, can do had work and engineering / IT work, etc, etc. Which then puts a dent in India's core export.....aka, the labor. So you are right. Chinese are smart businessmen and ONLY look at their and Pakistan's interests!




Good fantasy thinking, never has been in history any country became rich due to trade route, in that case panama would have become the richest but that did not happen. Countries do not become prosperous due to labour but due to technology, the chinese are still not considered as forefront in technology and are not even considered in advanced technologies(copying is not considered as R&D).

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## Pak.one

Vigneshwara said:


> Good fantasy thinking, never has been in history any country became rich due to trade route, in that case panama would have become the richest but that did not happen. Countries do not become prosperous due to labour but due to technology, the chinese are still not considered as forefront in technology and are not even considered in advanced technologies(copying is not considered as R&D).


Oh hello who are you?so much worried about our country. we want, we will get that's all don't you waste your precious indian mind on our CPEC projects gaining and losing ok mind your own business

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## ashok mourya

save_ghenda said:


> *ISLAMABAD:
> 
> Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.*
> 
> 
> China has pledged to invest up to $57 billion in Pakistan’s rail, road and energy infrastructure through its vast modern-day “Silk Road” network of trade routes linking Asia with Europe and Africa.
> 
> *Officials expect a huge uptick in trade between the two nations once Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is functional and work on motorways is finished allowing goods to cross the Himalayas to and from China’s western Xinjiang province.*
> 
> The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship “Belt and Road” project, has been credited with helping revive Pakistan’s sluggish economy, but investors have raised concerns that Pakistan’s currency could come under severe pressure once debt repayments begin and Chinese firms start taking profits home.
> 
> *China says Silk Road plan is not tied to presidency*
> 
> Nadeem Javaid, who advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government and works closely on the CPEC programme, told Reuters that such fears are misplaced as Islamabad would earn vast fees from charging vehicles moving goods from and to China.
> 
> Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects up to 4% of global trade to pass through it by 2020.
> 
> *“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”*
> 
> He said China has huge incentives to transport oil and other goods bound for its western regions through Pakistan as the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor shaves some 9,500 miles (15,000 km) off other traditional routes.
> 
> It doesn’t take long to imagine the savings on the many millions of litres of fuel, he said.
> 
> Investors are watching Pakistan’s ballooning current account deficit, which widened by more than 160% to $6.1 billion in the nine months to March, largely due to imports of machinery for big CPEC projects.
> 
> *Javaid said debt repayments and profit repatriation from CPEC projects will begin in 2019, totalling about $1.5-$1.9 billion, and rising to $3-$3.5 billion by the following year.*
> 
> *“It would be low in the beginning, and in 2022 it will peak at around $5 billion – not more than that,”* said the chief economist, adding that the government does not think it likely that Pakistan will face a balance of payments crisis.
> 
> The last such crisis in 2013 saw Islamabad turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
> 
> Javaid said the CPEC should boost economic growth, which he expects to hit 5.2% in 2016-17. Exports should also pick up once CPEC power projects totalling 7,000 megawatts come online and reduce the often crippling energy shortages.
> 
> Deepening political and military ties between Pakistan and China have helped closer financial integration, too, with Chinese companies starting to buy Pakistani firms and land.
> 
> Javaid said the two countries have also discussed using a currency swap agreement between their central banks to create a mechanism to avoid any third currency in international transactions.
> 
> “If some mechanism is going to be finalised on that, it will work as a buffer or a cushion that’s going to basically avoid or prevent any kind of default that could happen in unforeseen circumstances.”
> 
> But he added, “It’s only a contingency arrangement in case something bad happens.”
> https://tribune.com.pk/story/1406335/pakistans-repayments-cpec-peak-5b-2022-chief-economist/


Is there any pipe line project to transfer oil from gwadar to Xinjiang. If oil will transport by pipe how you will tax them ?


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## Morpheus

ashok mourya said:


> Is there any pipe line project to transfer oil from gwadar to Xinjiang. If oil will transport by pipe how you will tax them ?



Use the ships capacity to calculate tax, when it comes to delivery oil.


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## ashok mourya

Tickler said:


> Use the ships capacity to calculate tax, when it comes to delivery oil.


But bro,gwadar is a special economic zone and tax free.Technically you can't tax Chinese goods for at least 40 years.


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## Laozi

ashok mourya said:


> But bro,gwadar is a special economic zone and tax free.Technically you can't tax Chinese goods for at least 40 years.



Taxing is besides the point

Pakistan has even forgone her revenues



"On April 20, *Pakistan’s minister for ports and shipping announced that his ministry has given a Chinese firm a forty-year lease for the strategic Port of Gwadar.*

The lessee, state-owned China Overseas Port Holding Company, has been building out the port’s infrastructure since 2013.* Under its new long-term contract, it will retain over 90 percent of revenue from Gwadar’s marine operations, plus 85 percent of the revenue from the management of an adjacent free zone.* *It will also benefit from the deep tax exemptions that Pakistan has granted to Chinese companies for projects related to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),* a network of transportation infrastructure stretching from the Arabian Sea to the Chinese border."

Source: http://maritime-executive.com/article/pakistan-gives-china-a-40-year-lease-for-gwadar-port

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## Morpheus

ashok mourya said:


> But bro,gwadar is a special economic zone and tax free.Technically you can't tax Chinese goods for at least 40 years.



Tax exempt for Chinese destined good only, we can still tax goods for other countries. Right now we just have to wait and see, the corridor is partial completed right now. Once its completed, we will see the proper rates, and tax rules.

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## Fledgingwings

Sood se niklen ge to kuch bane ga.


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## Samlee

ashok mourya said:


> But bro,gwadar is a special economic zone and tax free.Technically you can't tax Chinese goods for at least 40 years.



We Can't Tax The Port and Free Zones But Who Said We Can't Tax The Highway and Railway Route

Remember It's Transit Fees Not Port Charges

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## oprih

My advice to my indian brothers who's anuses are burning due to extreme jealousy is to keep crying.

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## danger007

Pak.one said:


> Oh hello who are you?so much worried about our country. we want, we will get that's all don't you waste your precious indian mind on our CPEC projects gaining and losing ok mind your own business




Thread opened by pak member, you are obsessed with posters..


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## STEVEN囧

Samlee said:


> We Can't Tax The Port and Free Zones But Who Said We Can't Tax The Highway and Railway Route
> 
> Remember It's Transit Fees Not Port Charges



Yep,you make the point...Investment is business.China and Pakistan is not idiot...Business must be mutual benefit or else it is just a flash in the pan...20 years ago,when foregin company started to invest in China,Chinese government gave them favorable policy like tax exemption for many years,cheaper land and recruit,etc.But we got management model,technical engineers and workers as well as facilitated employment and benign competition.
Sometimes the economy development is like share market which needs the capital inflow and confidence.Now Pakistan economy environment is better and better.In the near future,more and more countries will invest here.Pakistan and China is open-minded and far-sighted on this point.

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## DJ_Viper

Vigneshwara said:


> Good fantasy thinking, never has been in history any country became rich due to trade route, in that case panama would have become the richest but that did not happen. Countries do not become prosperous due to labour but due to technology, the chinese are still not considered as forefront in technology and are not even considered in advanced technologies(copying is not considered as R&D).



Re-read my post again. If you still don't comprehend, re-read my post again.

The US's economic boom in the modern history really started from 1960's and beyond. Primarily due to Mr. Algore's father starting the initiative to build connected highways (and like his dad, he came up with the Internet's commercial concept of creating the "information super highway"). Take a look at the results of both, the real highways built during the 60's, and the information super highway (the internet) built in the 90's. Try to understand what both of these have brought to the US and to the entire globe. The economic importance of this route for Pakistan might dawn on you.

Just to get your logic straight. Panama is a country with less than 4 million population. Pakistan has a 200 million population and another 300 million from the Chinese side that will use this trade route for goods shipping and receiving. If Panama started to use the same sized population that would use the Panama canal, it would grow significantly within a few years. But 4 million is nothing compared to Pakistan or China or India's population. So your analysis have to have some real logic behind your posts.

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## Vigneshwara

DJ_Viper said:


> Re-read my post again. If you still don't comprehend, re-read my post again.
> 
> The US's economic boom in the modern history really started from 1960's and beyond. Primarily due to Mr. Algore's father starting the initiative to build connected highways (and like his dad, he came up with the Internet's commercial concept of creating the "information super highway"). Take a look at the results of both, the real highways built during the 60's, and the information super highway (the internet) built in the 90's. Try to understand what both of these have brought to the US and to the entire globe. The economic importance of this route for Pakistan might dawn on you.
> 
> Just to get your logic straight. Panama is a country with less than 4 million population. Pakistan has a 200 million population and another 300 million from the Chinese side that will use this trade route for goods shipping and receiving. If Panama started to use the same sized population that would use the Panama canal, it would grow significantly within a few years. But 4 million is nothing compared to Pakistan or China or India's population. So your analysis have to have some real logic behind your posts.



If 4 million could not become rich with such a huge volume of trade how will 200 million benefit, road transport is the most expensive form of transportation and its profit ratio would be less.


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## Stuttgart001

Vigneshwara said:


> If 4 million could not become rich with such a huge volume of trade how will 200 million benefit, road transport is the most expensive form of transportation and its profit ratio would be less.


You'd better be the leader of India .
It is the best wish of Chinese.


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## Narcissist

LOL

What a gay. CPEC Will save us! 

Get real... this is classic overpromising. Don't expect it to be super cheap either. Ie i don't know how true this $5B a year max thing is.


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## Roybot

DJ_Viper said:


> Panama Canal provides much less people goods and services. *It generates about $ 5-8 billion a year in just ship tolls and its not a port, just a route. Gawader would be a port, which comes with an international trade network going to China and the Central Russian states (plus 200 million of Pakistani consumers). So getting $ 10-15 billion a year from this route and associated port isn't a big deal.*
> 
> !



For the first 40 years, 90 percent of all the revenue from Gwadar port and the SEZ will go to the Chinese operator. How much revenue do you think Gwadar port and the SEZ is going to generate for Pakistan to make 10-15 Billion dollar at least !

Gwadar port will have to generate a profit of 100 Billion dollars every year, for Pakistani government to get 10 Billion dollars . Just for reference, the Port of Shanghai and the Port of Singapore, the world's most busiest ports, make a profit of 1-1.5 Billion dollars a year 



Samlee said:


> We Can't Tax The Port and Free Zones But Who Said We Can't Tax The Highway and Railway Route
> 
> Remember It's Transit Fees Not Port Charges



Channel tunnel generates an annual profit of 750million-1 Billion dollars. Total toll tax collected from trucks in all of Germany is roughly 3 Billion dollars.

Once again just how much traffic are you guys expecting on CPEC, and just how much toll do you plan on charging them, to be able to pay as much as 5 Billion dollars in a year!

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## Kabira

ashok mourya said:


> But bro,gwadar is a special economic zone and tax free.Technically you can't tax Chinese goods for at least 40 years.



Couple of things to keep in mind. Most of $5b figure include profit from power plants etc Loan is small component of CPEC.


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## Maxpane

power plants loan isnt for pakistan but for companies who operate them. am i righ?


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## Kabira

Maxpane said:


> power plants loan isnt for pakistan but for companies who operate them. am i righ?



Right.


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## NakedLunch

Last year over $5 billion was transferred to India from Pakistan. God knows who sent that money and why. I am sure we can afford this as well. 

When is the next anti-CPEC article coming?


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## Glorino

EASY TO BORROW DIFFICULT TO REPAY
Borrowing must be for productive purpose- not for ego boosting effort.Country can be held for ransom. DO NOT EXPECT MODI to help out Pakistan during debt crisis


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## Samlee

Roybot said:


> For the first 40 years, 90 percent of all the revenue from Gwadar port and the SEZ will go to the Chinese operator. How much revenue do you think Gwadar port and the SEZ is going to generate for Pakistan to make 10-15 Billion dollar at least !
> 
> Gwadar port will have to generate a profit of 100 Billion dollars every year, for Pakistani government to get 10 Billion dollars . Just for reference, the Port of Shanghai and the Port of Singapore, the world's most busiest ports, make a profit of 1-1.5 Billion dollars a year
> 
> 
> 
> Channel tunnel generates an annual profit of 750million-1 Billion dollars. Total toll tax collected from trucks in all of Germany is roughly 3 Billion dollars.
> 
> Once again just how much traffic are you guys expecting on CPEC, and just how much toll do you plan on charging them, to be able to pay as much as 5 Billion dollars in a year!






Let Me Just Give One Example The Trade Between China and UAE Is Going To Reach $80 Billion in Two Years.Just 10% Of That Trade Routed Through Gwadar Would Mean $8 Billion.Now Imagine How Much Traffic We Can Expect From Everyone.

When Mentioning Channel Tunnel You Have Completely Ignored The Scale Of China's Trade With Gulf,Africa and Europe



Glorino said:


> EASY TO BORROW DIFFICULT TO REPAY
> Borrowing must be for productive purpose- not for ego boosting effort.Country can be held for ransom. DO NOT EXPECT MODI to help out Pakistan during debt crisis



What On Earth Would Possess Us To Expect Anything Good From Modi


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## SleepingLion

Well either our money will be looted by the leaders or will be sent to Chines, at least if we will give it to Chines we are getting infrastructure and long term impact on people's life and economy.


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## Roybot

Samlee said:


> Let Me Just Give One Example The *Trade Between China and UAE Is Going To Reach $80 Billion in Two Years.Just 10% Of That Trade Routed Through Gwadar Would Mean $8 Billion.*Now Imagine How Much Traffic We Can Expect From Everyone.
> 
> When Mentioning Channel Tunnel You Have Completely Ignored The Scale Of China's Trade With Gulf,Africa and Europe



Oh Bhai, do you undertand the meaning of bilateral trade right? Seller sells, and the buyer pays the money, where does Pakistan come in this 80 billion dollar equation.

Even if we assume that, all of the UAE-China bilateral trade does go through Gwadar as early as 2022, how much revenue do you think Pakistan Is going to get? The 80 billion dollar claimed transaction is between the buyer and the seller, not the transit country. Even if we assume that Pakistan charges as high as 10 percent on all the UAE-CHina bilateral trade as transit fees, that is only 8 billion dollars. OF that 8 Billion dollars, the Chinese operator of the Gwadar Port get's 90 percent, that's 6.5 billion dollars going to the Chinese company, and that leaves a meagre 1.5 billion dollars for the PAkistani exchequer.

And that 1.5 billion dollar revenue, mind you, is the best case scenario( not gonna happen in real life), where all of UAE-China trade goes through Gwadar( Dubai port to ping pong khelne ke liya banaya hai UAE walo ne), and if PAkistan charges an exorbitant 10 per cent on all the trade passing through its port. 

Fact of the matter is that Gwadar port is going to see very little transit, and of the very little revenue this very little transit will generate, 90 per cent will go to the Chinese company that will be operating the Gwadar port for the next 40 years! PAkistan will get a whole lot of nothing, a whole lot of unserviceable debt, and Nawaz will get another 5 year of term out of it, and that's it.

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## Samlee

Roybot said:


> Oh Bhai, do you undertand the meaning of bilateral trade right? Seller sells, and the buyer pays the money, where does Pakistan come in this 80 billion dollar equation.
> 
> Even if we assume that, all of the UAE-China bilateral trade does go through Gwadar as early as 2022, how much revenue do you think Pakistan Is going to get? The 80 billion dollar claimed transaction is between the buyer and the seller, not the transit country. Even if we assume that Pakistan charges as high as 10 percent on all the UAE-CHina bilateral trade as transit fees, that is only 8 billion dollars. OF that 8 Billion dollars, the Chinese operator of the Gwadar Port get's 90 percent, that's 6.5 billion dollars going to the Chinese company, and that leaves a meagre 1.5 billion dollars for the PAkistani exchequer.



It's Amazing How CPEC Has Made Every Indian Troll An "Expert" In Transport Economics
Transit Fees and Toll Taxes Are Charged On Use of Roads Railway Rivers and Airspace Not Ports.Port Operators Charge Port Charges For Use of It's Facilities




Roybot said:


> And that 1.5 billion dollar revenue, mind you, is the best case scenario( not gonna happen in real life), where all of UAE-China trade goes through Gwadar( Dubai port to ping pong khelne ke liya banaya hai UAE walo ne), and if PAkistan charges an exorbitant 10 per cent on all the trade passing through its port.



Ah Yes Chinese Goods Will Go To Gwadar and Then Suddenly Teleport To Dubai Completely Bypassing Port Rashid.Is That The Best Logic You Indians Can Come Up With????




Roybot said:


> Fact of the matter is that Gwadar port is going to see very little transit, and of the very little revenue this very little transit will generate, 90 per cent will go to the Chinese company that will be operating the Gwadar port for the next 40 years! PAkistan will get a whole lot of nothing, a whole lot of unserviceable debt, and Nawaz will get another 5 year of term out of it, and that's it.



Dreams Are Really Sweet Aren't They


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## Rahil khan

Glorino said:


> EASY TO BORROW DIFFICULT TO REPAY
> Borrowing must be for productive purpose- not for ego boosting effort.Country can be held for ransom. *DO NOT EXPECT MODI to help out Pakistan during debt crisis*


Having wet dreams and jumping on conclusions...Absolutely Delusional. !!!


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## DJ_Viper

Roybot said:


> For the first 40 years, 90 percent of all the revenue from Gwadar port and the SEZ will go to the Chinese operator.



I stopped reading after this bullsh!t statement. Prove to me how you got to this number. Also, tell me what other deals are in the pipes that you have included in the number, including additional investments by other countries and expanding flow of trade and traffic. If you can't provide a full analysis, keep your personal opinions to yourself and learn from others, vs. indulging into conversations that are way above your level.



Vigneshwara said:


> If 4 million could not become rich with such a huge volume of trade how will 200 million benefit, road transport is the most expensive form of transportation and its profit ratio would be less.




Ok, then why is the Indian expressways being constructed that you people are spreading so much hoopla about? Some of you even say the new Indian highway that is being built to connect India, is like a competition to the CPEC rofl. So if this is such a money wasting initiative, why is India doing this internally herself??

Like I just told your friend countryman, instead of writing bullsh!t on here, how about you either learn from others who know a thing or two about these subjects, or, if you just have to spread hatred and negativity, you keep it to yourself and not get called out by people like me? That's one way to keep your personal respect intact by one trying to reason on the subject, vs. trying to sound like a total idiot.


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## Vigneshwara

DJ_Viper said:


> I stopped reading after this bullsh!t statement. Prove to me how you got to this number. Also, tell me what other deals are in the pipes that you have included in the number, including additional investments by other countries and expanding flow of trade and traffic. If you can't provide a full analysis, keep your personal opinions to yourself and learn from others, vs. indulging into conversations that are way above your level.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ok, then why is the Indian expressways being constructed that you people are spreading so much hoopla about? Some of you even say the new Indian highway that is being built to connect India, is like a competition to the CPEC rofl. So if this is such a money wasting initiative, why is India doing this internally herself??
> 
> Like I just told your friend countryman, instead of writing bullsh!t on here, how about you either learn from others who know a thing or two about these subjects, or, if you just have to spread hatred and negativity, you keep it to yourself and not get called out by people like me? That's one way to keep your personal respect intact by one trying to reason on the subject, vs. trying to sound like a total idiot.




Roadways are meant to connect small towns and not countries, also understand that pakistan is taking a loan and it is not an investment, you would have to return the money with interest and if you fail to pay then china gets to own the places china has provided loan for.


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## Stuttgart001

Vigneshwara said:


> Roadways are meant to connect small towns and not countries, also understand that pakistan is taking a loan and it is not an investment, you would have to return the money with interest and if you fail to pay then china gets to own the places china has provided loan for.


You have no idea of international fiancial knowledge. 
Stop BS .


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## Vigneshwara

Stuttgart001 said:


> You have no idea of international fiancial knowledge.
> Stop BS .



Atleast I have better financial knowledge than your FM, who takes loan and adds it to the forex reserves.


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## Stuttgart001

Vigneshwara said:


> Atleast I have better financial knowledge than your FM, who takes loan and adds it to the forex reserves.


Haha.
Is that your media tell you ?
How could you believe these stupid nonsence?

China has a huge trade surplus ,which makes forex reserve keep increasing rapidly ,and China government try any best to invest all across the world in order to keep the wealth valuable.
OBOR and AIIB are both part of these efforts .
I find India media is right in the way of the enhancement of the intellectual level of Indian people.


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## C130

save_ghenda said:


> *ISLAMABAD:
> 
> Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.*
> 
> 
> China has pledged to invest up to $57 billion in Pakistan’s rail, road and energy infrastructure through its vast modern-day “Silk Road” network of trade routes linking Asia with Europe and Africa.
> 
> *Officials expect a huge uptick in trade between the two nations once Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is functional and work on motorways is finished allowing goods to cross the Himalayas to and from China’s western Xinjiang province.*
> 
> The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship “Belt and Road” project, has been credited with helping revive Pakistan’s sluggish economy, but investors have raised concerns that Pakistan’s currency could come under severe pressure once debt repayments begin and Chinese firms start taking profits home.
> 
> *China says Silk Road plan is not tied to presidency*
> 
> Nadeem Javaid, who advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government and works closely on the CPEC programme, told Reuters that such fears are misplaced as Islamabad would earn vast fees from charging vehicles moving goods from and to China.
> 
> Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects up to 4% of global trade to pass through it by 2020.
> 
> *“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”*
> 
> He said China has huge incentives to transport oil and other goods bound for its western regions through Pakistan as the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor shaves some 9,500 miles (15,000 km) off other traditional routes.
> 
> It doesn’t take long to imagine the savings on the many millions of litres of fuel, he said.
> 
> Investors are watching Pakistan’s ballooning current account deficit, which widened by more than 160% to $6.1 billion in the nine months to March, largely due to imports of machinery for big CPEC projects.
> 
> *Javaid said debt repayments and profit repatriation from CPEC projects will begin in 2019, totalling about $1.5-$1.9 billion, and rising to $3-$3.5 billion by the following year.*
> 
> *“It would be low in the beginning, and in 2022 it will peak at around $5 billion – not more than that,”* said the chief economist, adding that the government does not think it likely that Pakistan will face a balance of payments crisis.
> 
> The last such crisis in 2013 saw Islamabad turn to the International Monetary Fund for help.
> 
> Javaid said the CPEC should boost economic growth, which he expects to hit 5.2% in 2016-17. Exports should also pick up once CPEC power projects totalling 7,000 megawatts come online and reduce the often crippling energy shortages.
> 
> Deepening political and military ties between Pakistan and China have helped closer financial integration, too, with Chinese companies starting to buy Pakistani firms and land.
> 
> Javaid said the two countries have also discussed using a currency swap agreement between their central banks to create a mechanism to avoid any third currency in international transactions.
> 
> “If some mechanism is going to be finalised on that, it will work as a buffer or a cushion that’s going to basically avoid or prevent any kind of default that could happen in unforeseen circumstances.”
> 
> But he added, “It’s only a contingency arrangement in case something bad happens.”
> https://tribune.com.pk/story/1406335/pakistans-repayments-cpec-peak-5b-2022-chief-economist/






> He said China has huge incentives to transport oil and other goods bound for its western regions through Pakistan as the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor shaves some 9,500 miles (15,000 km) off other traditional routes.
> 
> It doesn’t take long to imagine the savings on the many millions of litres of fuel, he said.



just how much are you really saving compared to using huge container ships?? you gotta transport these goods from Eastern China all the way to Western China via rail and trucks and that eats up massive amounts of fuel as well.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSCL_Globe

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## Vigneshwara

Stuttgart001 said:


> Haha.
> Is that your media tell you ?
> How could you believe these stupid nonsence?
> 
> China has a huge trade surplus ,which makes forex reserve keep increasing rapidly ,and China government try any best to invest all across the world in order to keep the wealth valuable.
> OBOR and AIIB are both part of these efforts .
> I find India media is right in the way of the enhancement of the intellectual level of Indian people.




China is a export driven economy and pakistan is not, china is not investing they are providing loans at high rates so that poor countries like pakistan would not be able to return it back and hence would have to give away a portion of their territory to china.


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## Roybot

Samlee said:


> It's Amazing How CPEC Has Made Every Indian Troll An "Expert" In Transport Economics
> Transit Fees and Toll Taxes Are Charged On Use of Roads Railway Rivers and Airspace Not Ports.Port Operators Charge Port Charges For Use of It's Facilities
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ah Yes Chinese Goods Will Go To Gwadar and Then Suddenly Teleport To Dubai Completely Bypassing Port Rashid.Is That The Best Logic You Indians Can Come Up With????
> 
> Dreams Are Really Sweet Aren't They



Forget about my flags for a minute and debate this with facts.

Already showed you that Pakistan will get a pittance from the port revenue since the Chinese government owned port operator will be taking 90 percent of the revenues for the next 40 years .

Coming to the transit fees and toll charges, how much do you think Pakistan is going to charge for transit?

Suez canal generates roughly 5 Billion dollars a year, Panama Canal generates about 1 Billion a year, Eurotunnel brings in 1 Billion a year. The total toll collected on all of Germany's highway comes up to 5 billion dollars a year!

Is CPEC going to generate more revenue than Suez Canal? Not a chance.

Is the toll from CPEC related freight traffic going to be more than the toll collected from all of Germany's freight traffic? Again not a chance!!!

So how exactly is Pakistan planning to service the CPEC debt?

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## Logicaldude

Roybot said:


> Forget about my flags for a minute and debate this with facts.
> 
> Already showed you that Pakistan will get a pittance from the port revenue since the Chinese government owned port operator will be taking 90 percent of the revenues for the next 40 years .
> 
> Coming to the transit fees and toll charges, how much do you think Pakistan is going to charge for transit?
> 
> Suez canal generates roughly 5 Billion dollars a year, Panama Canal generates about 1 Billion a year, Eurotunnel brings in 1 Billion a year. The total toll collected on all of Germany's highway comes up to 5 billion dollars a year!
> 
> Is CPEC going to generate more revenue than Suez Canal? Not a chance.
> 
> Is the toll from CPEC related freight traffic going to be more than the toll collected from all of Germany's freight traffic? Again not a chance!!!
> 
> So how exactly is Pakistan planning to service the CPEC debt?



How does a farmer service his debt to the generous landlord? How is Sri Lanka servicing their debts due to the equally hyped hambantota port and SEZ?

By selling land and assets. That's why the zamindar gives the generous loans in the first place.

I Have heard Pakistanis making up all kinds of excuses for the lack of transparency. I do not know what world they live in. I even question if they truly care for their country more than they hate India.

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## Roybot

DJ_Viper said:


> *I stopped reading after this bullsh!t statement. Prove to me how you got to this number. Also, tell me what other deals are in the pipes that you have included in the number, including additional investments by other countries and expanding flow of trade and traffic.* If you can't provide a full analysis, keep your personal opinions to yourself and learn from others, vs. indulging into conversations that are way above your level.



If you weren't so busy serving the CPEC Kool-Aid you could have done a simple google search and found it for yourself. Heck, it has also been posted in this very thread. Let me post it for you once again,



> *Minister for Ports and Shipping Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo said today Pakistan has handed over operations of its Gwadar port to a Chinese company for a period of 40 years.*
> 
> *“China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) has 91 per cent share of revenue collection from gross revenue of terminal and marine operations and 85 per cent share from gross revenue of free zone operation,”* he added.


http://nation.com.pk/business/20-Ap...d-to-chinese-company-for-40-years-senate-told


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## Kabira

Hindutva logic is at work here. Anyone with couple of brain cells left knows $5 bilion figure if true by 2022 it mean China will be taking out profits. Loan is small part of CPEC, around $11 billion over the period of 30 years at 1% interest rate.

Pakistan isn't going to pay back that loan in couple of years


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## Roybot

save_ghenda said:


> Hindutva logic is at work here. Anyone with couple of brain cells left knows $5 bilion figure if true by 2022 it mean China will be taking out profits. Loan is small part of CPEC, around $11 billion over the period of 30 years at 1% interest rate.
> 
> Pakistan isn't going to pay back that loan in couple of years



lmao so the Chief economist of Pakistan is talking about offsetting profits by profits? 

*Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.*


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## DJ_Viper

Roybot said:


> If you weren't so busy serving the CPEC Kool-Aid you could have done a simple google search and found it for yourself. Heck, it has also been posted in this very thread. Let me post it for you once again,
> 
> 
> http://nation.com.pk/business/20-Ap...d-to-chinese-company-for-40-years-senate-told
> 
> 
> http://maritime-executive.com/article/pakistan-gives-china-a-40-year-lease-for-gwadar-port



Give me some credible argument....some analysis, some real industry experts putting some numbers together. I believe in numbers, numbers predict everything, they don't lie. Your post, is useless piece of crap till you provide numbers, in terms of how Pakistan will be paying for the CPEC debt for 40 years and won't make a dime. I told you before, you get into it with me, you better have your facts straight or you'll feel like you are getting insulted. I don't have patience for bullsh!t and childish silly arguments. I will however commend you if you wrote a factual analysis backed up by numbers. I am not here to listen to childish drama because you guys have born beef with the Pakistanis.



Roybot said:


> lmao so the Chief economist of Pakistan is talking about offsetting profits by profits?
> 
> *Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor, says the Pakistan government’s chief economist.*



Take a look at your own post above......"will be more than offset by transit fees", meaning the utilization of the trade route will bring more revenue that would result in the CPEC payments being a small fraction of the money return.

Do me a favor, let's see if you fully understand the CPEC here, and you can show us that you know what you are talking about. Write me a small paragraph and tell me what would happen in Pakistan after the CPEC becomes operational. Let's see if you even remotely get it. Otherwise, you continue to troll and I'll request the mods to ban you.


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## Kabira

Roybot said:


> Pakistan’s debt and *other* repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 .



See that other is profits from telecom, power plants etc which Chinese companies will take out. And that to by *2022 *and most importantly it will* peak *at $5b if true.


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## Roybot

DJ_Viper said:


> Give me some credible argument....some analysis, some real industry experts putting some numbers together. I believe in numbers, numbers predict everything, they don't lie. Your post, is useless piece of crap till you provide numbers, in terms of how Pakistan will be paying for the CPEC debt for 40 years and won't make a dime. I told you before, you get into it with me, you better have your facts straight or you'll feel like you are getting insulted. I don't have patience for bullsh!t and childish silly arguments. I will however commend you if you wrote a factual analysis backed up by numbers. I am not here to listen to childish drama because you guys have born beef with the Pakistanis.



 A Statement from Pakistan's minister for ports and shipping, given to the senate is not credible enough for you? It doesn't matter how much traffic Gwadar port and the related infrastructure will see, or how much investment is made in the Gwadar SEZ, the Chinese government will take 90 percent of all the revenue generated for the next 40 years, leaving 10 percent for the Pakistanis. Not just that, Pakistan will have all have to repay the debt along with interest.

So in simple words, China built a 10 billion dollars port on Pakistani land, it will take 90 per cent of all the revenue generated by it for the next 40 years, and to top it all off Pakistan will have to repay that 10 billion dollars + interest back to China.

If this is not the deal of the century then I don't know what is!



DJ_Viper said:


> Take a look at your own post above......"will be more than offset by transit fees", meaning the utilization of the trade route will bring more revenue that would result in the CPEC payments being a small fraction of the money return.



I am just gonna avoid your ad hominem attacks and focus on the topic.

The chief economist of the government will obviously have to claim that all is ok. He can't go around saying oh we have no idea where the money to repay the debt is going to come from 

I have already given the example of German road freight annual revenue as a reference, it sits at 5 Billion dollars. So unless you are telling me the CPEC road freight volume is going to be more than all of Germany's road freight, I can't see where this 5 Billion dollars is going to come from.

And yes go ahead and request the mods to ban me for raising difficult questions!



save_ghenda said:


> See that other is profits from telecom, power plants etc which Chinese companies will take out. And that to by *2022 *and most importantly it will* peak *at $5b if true.



Profits from power plants and telecom? goes to the company that operate them not to the Pakistan government. The government only gets the tax collected from these projects.

I hope you know that if a company says that it is going to invest 1 Billion dollars in Pakistan, it doesn't mean 1 Billion dollars in the Pakistan government's coffers! The company that will invest that money will take the profits. All Pakistan government will get is the tax!

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## Kabira

Roybot said:


> Profits from power plants and telecom? goes to the company that operate them not to the Pakistan government. The government only gets the tax collected from these projects.
> 
> I hope you know that, if a company says that it is going to invest 1 Billion dollars in Pakistan, it doesn't mean 1 Billion dollars in the Pakistan government's coffers! The company that will invest that money will take the profits. All Pakistan will get is the tax!



And I hope by now you know that $5b isn't actually Pakistani government paying back to China. I repeat loan is small part of CPEC which is going to be payed back in 30 years at 1% interest rate.


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## Roybot

save_ghenda said:


> And I hope by now you know that $5b isn't actually Pakistani government paying back to China. I repeat loan is small part of CPEC which is going to be payed back in 30 years at 1% interest rate.



I doesn't matter who Pakistan is paying it back to, whether it is to the Chinese government, a Chinese company (most of them are state owned btw) or any other national or international company. Fact is Pakistan will have to repay 5 billion dollars in 2022. And this 5 billion dollar is just the peak repayment in one year

Profit generated goes straight to the pockets of the company, why would Pakistan have to "Repay" the profits.

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## Kabira

Roybot said:


> I doesn't matter who Pakistan is paying it back to, whether it is to the Chinese government, a Chinese company (most of them are state owned btw) or any other national or international company. Fact is Pakistan will have to repay 5 billion dollars in 2022. And this 5 billion dollar is just the peak repayment in one year
> 
> Profit generated goes straight to the pockets of the company, why would Pakistan have to "Repay" the profits.



And who said Pakistan (government) will pay back? You are not that stupid so why act like one? When Chinese companies take $ out of Pakistan it doesn't mean state is paying them.


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## Roybot

save_ghenda said:


> And who said Pakistan (government) will pay back? You are not that stupid so why act like one? When Chinese companies take $ out of Pakistan it doesn't mean state is paying them.



So who has to pay this 5 billion dollars?

*



Pakistan’s debt and other repayments on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative will peak at around $5 billion in 2022

Click to expand...

*
And what happens if Pakistan doesn't reach the target of 6-8 Billion dollars(talk about ambitious) in toll tax and rental fees by 2020 as being claimed the chief economist?

For comparison, Germany's annual toll revenue is only 5 Billion dollars.




> *“The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year,” Javaid, chief economist at the planning ministry, said in an interview. “By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum.”*


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## DJ_Viper

Roybot said:


> A Statement from Pakistan's minister for ports and shipping, given to the senate is not credible enough for you? It doesn't matter how much traffic Gwadar port and the related infrastructure will see, or how much investment is made in the Gwadar SEZ, the Chinese government will take 90 percent of all the revenue generated for the next 40 years, leaving 10 percent for the Pakistanis. Not just that, Pakistan will have all have to repay the debt along with interest.
> 
> So in simple words, China built a 10 billion dollars port on Pakistani land, it will take 90 per cent of all the revenue generated by it for the next 40 years, and to top it all off Pakistan will have to repay that 10 billion dollars + interest back to China.
> 
> If this is not the deal of the century then I don't kn




Is that how it works? So what about human population around this route? Ever thought about what will happen around this empty land for over 1000 KM's long highway? If you can't understand it, don't respond as you are just trolling without having the brain capacity to understand the real picture. A port is just a port, it is not what the Pakistan is excited for, or will grow Pakistan leaps and bounds. Its what I mentioned above....what would happen to over a 1000 KM's of empty area around this route. Between US East Coast, from Miami to say Washington DC is about a 1000 or so KM. That area has over a few trillions of traffic, trade, businesses, homes, commercial buildings, small and mid sized businesses supporting the local communities and creating city level economies. That is what would happen across the ENTIRE 1000+ km of this empty area. This route is exactly where the US was in 1960's when they started to build the I95 that connects the entire Eastern Seabord of the US! And now that highway has trilling worth of real estate and businesses and trade taking place from it. Pakistan will get the same, these new cities will be developed with local economies. If there is a new city built every 10 KM's, in theory a 100 more cities can be born out of the 1000 KM area, and a couple of more ports. So that can easily double or tripple up Pakistan's GDP. If you don't want to use you brain for about 5 minutes and understand what a trade oriented highway brings to a nation, I don't have a reason to feed to silly trolls.


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## Kabira

Roybot said:


> So who has to pay this 5 billion dollars?
> 
> 
> 
> And what happens if Pakistan doesn't reach the target of 6-8 Billion dollars(talk about ambitious) in toll tax and rental fees by 2020 as being claimed the chief economist?
> 
> For comparison, Germany's annual toll revenue is only 5 Billion dollars.



Pakistan state doesn't have to pay back $5b per year from 2022. When citizen pay his electricity bill, part of that will go out of Pakistan to China. Still difficult? 

Pakistan will increase tax revenues on basis of increased commercial activity and GDP growth rate thanks to CPEC. This year Pakistan GDP growth rate will be 6%, next year should pass 7%.


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## Glorino

Repayment is painful -cannot repay turn to Multilateral organisation like IMF. Remember in UK living there, a West Indian girl unable to pay her monthly rent - the middle aged landlord was screwing her loudly such that I was delayed leaving my house for work. Getting a loan from IMF comes with many strict conditions, China is more flexible-give large part of territory to China - it brings very big smile to Pakistani generals


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## hit&run&hitagain

Roybot said:


> Forget about my flags for a minute and debate this with facts.
> 
> Already showed you that Pakistan will get a pittance from the port revenue since the Chinese government owned port operator will be taking 90 percent of the revenues for the next 40 years .
> 
> Coming to the transit fees and toll charges, how much do you think Pakistan is going to charge for transit?
> 
> Suez canal generates roughly 5 Billion dollars a year, Panama Canal generates about 1 Billion a year, Eurotunnel brings in 1 Billion a year. The total toll collected on all of Germany's highway comes up to 5 billion dollars a year!
> 
> Is CPEC going to generate more revenue than Suez Canal? Not a chance.
> 
> Is the toll from CPEC related freight traffic going to be more than the toll collected from all of Germany's freight traffic? Again not a chance!!!
> 
> So how exactly is Pakistan planning to service the CPEC debt?



You forgot to add revenues earned by roadside shopkeepers catering in-transit Trucks.


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## Samlee

Roybot said:


> Forget about my flags for a minute and debate this with facts.
> 
> Already showed you that Pakistan will get a pittance from the port revenue since the Chinese government owned port operator will be taking 90 percent of the revenues for the next 40 years .
> 
> Coming to the transit fees and toll charges, how much do you think Pakistan is going to charge for transit?
> 
> Suez canal generates roughly 5 Billion dollars a year, Panama Canal generates about 1 Billion a year, Eurotunnel brings in 1 Billion a year. The total toll collected on all of Germany's highway comes up to 5 billion dollars a year!
> 
> *Is CPEC going to generate more revenue than Suez Canal? Not a chance.*
> 
> *Is the toll from CPEC related freight traffic going to be more than the toll collected from all of Germany's freight traffic? Again not a chance!!!*
> 
> So how exactly is Pakistan planning to service the CPEC debt?



And The Comedy Continues 

Your Flags Are What Is Keeping Your Mind From Making An Objective Analysis


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## Shah Khalid

Roybot said:


> Forget about my flags for a minute and debate this with facts.
> 
> Already showed you that Pakistan will get a pittance from the port revenue since the Chinese government owned port operator will be taking 90 percent of the revenues for the next 40 years .
> 
> Coming to the transit fees and toll charges, how much do you think Pakistan is going to charge for transit?
> 
> Suez canal generates roughly 5 Billion dollars a year, Panama Canal generates about 1 Billion a year, Eurotunnel brings in 1 Billion a year. The total toll collected on all of Germany's highway comes up to 5 billion dollars a year!
> 
> Is CPEC going to generate more revenue than Suez Canal? Not a chance.
> 
> Is the toll from CPEC related freight traffic going to be more than the toll collected from all of Germany's freight traffic? Again not a chance!!!
> 
> So how exactly is Pakistan planning to service the CPEC debt?



Wow You Indians Never Let Go Of Any Chance To Make Fools Out Of Yourselves.How On Earth Can You Compare CPEC With Suez Canal or Panama For That Matter.Canals Have A Certain Limit To The Size of Ships That Can Pass It.Most Ships Have To Pass Through Cape Route

Gwadar Is A Deep Water Port And Does Not Have The Constraints Of A Canal and Can Therefore Accomodate Maximum Traffic.

Germany's Freight Traffic???Did You Ever Compare China's GDP to That of Germany It's More Than Three Times Greater And We Are Talking About International Trade Traffic Not Domestic Trade

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## Rajeev_Anand

Roybot said:


> Oh Bhai, do you undertand the meaning of bilateral trade right? Seller sells, and the buyer pays the money, where does Pakistan come in this 80 billion dollar equation.
> 
> Even if we assume that, all of the UAE-China bilateral trade does go through Gwadar as early as 2022, how much revenue do you think Pakistan Is going to get? The 80 billion dollar claimed transaction is between the buyer and the seller, not the transit country. Even if we assume that Pakistan charges as high as 10 percent on all the UAE-CHina bilateral trade as transit fees, that is only 8 billion dollars. OF that 8 Billion dollars, the Chinese operator of the Gwadar Port get's 90 percent, that's 6.5 billion dollars going to the Chinese company, and that leaves a meagre 1.5 billion dollars for the PAkistani exchequer.
> 
> And that 1.5 billion dollar revenue, mind you, is the best case scenario( not gonna happen in real life), where all of UAE-China trade goes through Gwadar( Dubai port to ping pong khelne ke liya banaya hai UAE walo ne), and if PAkistan charges an exorbitant 10 per cent on all the trade passing through its port.
> 
> Fact of the matter is that Gwadar port is going to see very little transit, and of the very little revenue this very little transit will generate, 90 per cent will go to the Chinese company that will be operating the Gwadar port for the next 40 years! PAkistan will get a whole lot of nothing, a whole lot of unserviceable debt, and Nawaz will get another 5 year of term out of it, and that's it.


You missed the cost of operation of tolls, maintenance of roads.


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