# Pakistan Airforce Procurement plans after 2001- Myths and Realities



## SQ8

*Introductory Disclaimer:*
A lot has been written on the future plans of the Pakistan Air Force and much more has been speculated with complete disregard for even the slightest of factual hypothetical (_if there was ever a term like that possible_) or even the basic tenets of logic. We have relatively young/new members going ahead and speculating based on what are nothing more than piecemeal ideas thrown out as public press releases by various branches of Pakistan’s political establishment within the civilian government that deal with the military. If the track record is anything to go by, then we can safely assume that most if not all of the information is based on interpretation of basic concepts or ideas given to them by what are essentially the real decision-makers within the Pakistani military.

On the opposite end of the spectrum we have certain members who based on both seniority and time spent on the forum are basing their ideals on either a picture of gloom and doom or the best case hodgepodge of possible facts and misunderstood figures.

While I am not going to claim be an expert in the subject at all am not trying to impose my opinion upon anybody; I will try to elaborate on certain known information and possible unknown known information that quietly circulates the web and is generally unseen (_the correct term should be undecipherable_). This information is not based on any insight sources for the time being. Since these regardless of how accurate these may or may not be. It is also based on my word and as far as I’m concerned, even for myself, my word on online forums means zilch.

_I will not be looking to point out any sources for this because those who had not bothered to do the research to find resources should have the focus to go around and look at what is public knowledge (if only the public would look at it). This sounds rather arrogant, but it is in fact a resignation from my end regarding attempts to justify claims both for Pakistan’s and the more rabid and generally cynical kind that we get from across the border._

I’m not going to go beyond the early 2000’s to try and chart out what transpired. For the Pakistan air force post September 11, 2001. I will only disclose that since the PAF has already published a generally honest history of the 10 years between 1988 to 1998 , which includes its attempts to procure modern combat aircraft to supplant its increasingly obsolete fleet after the procurement of the F-16s via the United States fell through.

Instead, I will focus on what happened immediately after September 11. What is not known is that as soon as the Twin Towers fell there was a lot of speculation as to where the United States was going next. As it became clear where the problem lay and how the Pakistani intelligence services may be indirectly implicated as having ties to the enemy, regardless of their ignorance and innocence when it came to the events of September 11. Many had speculated that the United States may decide to take a wide spread intervention, both in Afghanistan and perhaps carry out intimidating strikes within Pakistan itself. With the capitulation of Gen Musharraf to the very brash and direct threats from the US government put Pakistan squarely on the side of the “good guys”. The resulting opening up of markets, which included those from the defence sector gave the generally cautious and under confident procurement departments of the Pakistani military a chance to flex their options.


Before going further on why Pakistan chose its current (_easily changeable_) air force upgrade plans. It is important to look into the late 80s and the perceived impact seen by Pakistani intelligentsia on its word relations with regards to its nuclear weapons program. The super seven program was born, not just to create a local aviation industry within Pakistan . But also to allow a controllable source of air power that could be projected regardless of any dip or rise in relations with the well-known suppliers of defence equipment. To sum it up as succinctly as possible; the super seven or JF 17 program has nothing to do with any potential procurement from sources abroad and can be placed on a relative scale of importance to Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions. It is considered as a lifeline in case Pakistan ends up being outcast out of the world arena again.

*Pre-2001:*
The Pakistani fleet prior to September 11, comprised mostly of outdated but somewhat effective, Mirage fighter bombers, 40 odd older F-16 models, Chinese facsimiles of the Mig-21C and the tail end occupied by completely obsolete and ineffective Chinese mig-19 facsimiles. A good number of Mirage aircraft were updated with somewhat modern avionics which multiplied the effectiveness and greatly, including the utilization of a very limited number of beyond visual range missiles (_with the very restrictive employment parameters_).
A number of Chengdu F7MG fighters were being procured as a stopgap measure to replace the Mig-19 aircraft. These aircraft were to be used in air superiority scenarios using Ambush and embedded tactics that could utilize the relatively good manoeuvrability of this platform. However, these were still in the process of delivery and induction.

While the F-16s were considered the most effective type in the fleet, the combat availability of these aircraft was generally suspect beyond the first few days of a conflict. This was aptly demonstrated during the 2001 stand-off between Pakistan and India in which a key requirement laid in the emergency spares by Pakistan to the United States was for the F-16.

*Post-2001:*
Right after September 11, the regrouping staff of the Pakistani air force (_having lost some of its best officers to an air crash that same year_), huddled around to evaluate the new options based on the incoming aid and the rebounding economy propped up by the technocrats. It was a consensus among the military leadership that Pakistan was about to become a competitive market for many vendors and the best way to attract the maximum attention of potential suppliers was to hold a defence exposition (IDEAS).

However, since the JF 17 program was now in full swing and some of the key decision makers in the Pakistani force were convinced that it was to form the backbone of the PAF as it brought with it the potential to form an effective air defence fighter; it was decided to focus on the glaring lack of an effective strike element within the Pakistani force.

Since the Pakistani air force had been operating the Lockheed Martin F-16 (_then Gen dynamics_) for almost 18 years, its first focus was to use that existing knowledge of operating what was still a very effective aircraft (_in its latest guise_) by inducting a number of used airframes to complete its original staff plan of having 110 F-16s forming a multi role backbone for the PAF. This was considered the most potent way to quickly regain lost ground (of which there was a lot) against its primary threat in India. Hence, the F-16 procurement programme was put immediately back on track in the months that followed the unofficial declaration of alliance with the United States. Since this process required the approval of the US Congress and Senate, budgetary allocations were made to accommodate the time required for this process.

While the F-16 was a very effective strike fighter; it was deemed it necessary based on previous experience to have a second are strike platform that could still operate well into a week of a conflict in case (which is considered a certainty) of sanctions applied by the United States due to a conflict. In addition, it was considered that the United States may not allow the purchase of a refuelling aircraft that would allow the F-16s to strike deep within the heart of Indian territory, as was required (_However, the US supplied per the Pakistani request the latest generation F-16 that it could export to Pakistan with conformal fuel tanks that accommodated the range requirement_)

Having evaluated and selected the Mirage 2000-5 as its primary strike element in the early 90s, the Pakistan air force was then and in 2001 convinced that the aircraft met its requirements perfectly.

In addition, the Pakistan air force had also evaluated multiple other aircraft during the sanction years, which included the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, SU 27, Mig-29 and had been given the chance to get first impressions of the Chinese J 10 fighter.

As they had decided on the Mirage 2000 – 5, the Pakistan air force approached the idea of meeting other vendors at the exposition as a cursory exercise. The French, however, refused to offer the Mirage 2000 and instead insisted that the Pakistan air force purchased the Rafale instead. While many conspiracy theories will be thrown about regarding the leadership of Pakistan military and its role in terms of kickbacks and corruption in trying to rig the procurement of new equipment; none of these wild (_but not entirely baseless_) ideas hold any salt when it comes to the selection of Pakistan’s new fighter.

Faced with a dilemma of being unable to purchase the Mirage 2000 and unable to afford the Rafale in the numbers it wanted, and unable to secure a guarantee of spares from the partner nations in the Eurofighter programme; the Pakistan air force decided to look for an out-of-the-box solution.

As they had already taken a look at the Chinese J 10 fighter and been given a preview of their plans to upgrade that aircraft, the Pakistan air force put forward a requirement to the Chengdu aircraft Corporation for modifications to the J 10 that would allow it to favourably compare with the Mirage 2000 in a strike role. In addition, just as with the JF 17 programme and other defence procurement from China; the aircraft was available immediately via a soft loan from the Chinese.

The timeline for these events is end of 2004 post the IDEAS exposition where the talks for the Mirage 2000 finally fell through. At this time the Pakistan air force was about to put on concrete plans for procuring 150 JF 17 aircraft (_as the programme was maturing enough and the Pakistan air force was confident of its abilities to form the backbone of its fleet_), 36 new F-16 block 52+ fighters, 45 used F-16 fighters and 48 Pakistan specific J-10 Variants. The used F-16s were to be upgraded equivalent avionics to the newer aircraft. The goal was to have by the year 2020 a fleet comprising of 110 F-16s, 110-125 JF-17s, 48-60 J-10, 60 F-7PG and 48 upgraded Mirage V strike aircraft. This would bring Pakistan air force to its desired level of around 350 combat aircraft. In addition, there was a procurement of force multiplying elements such as airborne early warning and control, airborne ground surveillance, multi layered ground-based air defence system , and unmanned intelligence gathering platforms.

The effect of the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir cannot be understated. The financial resources which were then allocated for the purchase of equipment were redirected (both justly and unjustly) two words relief and rehabilitation of the region (of which is substantial amount of money was lost to corruption). The PAF was forced to cut back the timeline for its procurement of its 36 new F-16 fighters and it chose to keep 18 as a future budgetary opening. In the years that followed, the economic policies of the technocrats lost their effectiveness at the same time when external aid was made more restrictive in its use available to the Pakistan military. However, the actual damage to the military procurement programs was undertaken during the disastrous and corruption ridden period that followed in the civilian government post Musharraf.

A systematic cannibalisation of the Pakistani state’s economic abilities was undertaken to feed the self-serving requirements of the rulers during that period. Any revenue that the state was generating was immediately directed to the offers of the ruling party, along with a scripting of any monetary “meat” from the proverbial skeleton of the Pakistani economy. The resulting deficit in the budget left the Pakistan air force scrambling to even provide basic maintenance for its aircraft. Within two years of the Pakistan People’s party government, it was clear that the PAF’s plans were finished and the best it could hope for was to sustain the programmes it had already made payments for.

This meant that by 2011 the Pakistan air force had settled on a last resort figure of 80 F-16s(_both new and old_), 150 Jf-17s and 50 F-7PGs by 2020. A total of 280 combat aircraft and a far cry from the ambitions it held for the higher 300 figure just a few years ago.

Yet all hope was not lost, and it was characteristic of the ever optimistic Pakistani consider a better economic turn where they would be able to exercise the options for more new and used F-16 fighters to bolster their strength until they were able to undertake the procurement of the fifth generation combat aircraft, which was to be around the mid 2020s.

In the years that followed, the focus was to try and keep up with the loan payments to be made to various lenders (with the major being in China, followed by Sweden and certain private sector lenders). This was done so that the credit rating for the Pakistan air force as a customer would improve among potential suppliers and procure more equipment if the opportunity would present itself.

Based on the latest reports that are available which includes those via the Ministry of Defence production, popular aviation journals and new sites, along with official announcements; the following picture for procurement by the Pakistan air force appears:

The JF 17 programme is performing better than expected and is being relied upon to supplement those that were previously considered specific to the F-16 fleet. This has allowed greater flexibility to purchase ancillary equipment such as surface-to-air missiles, electronic warfare systems, intelligence gathering Systems, along with stockpiling a very large number of spares for the F-16 fleet to allow it to operate even under the duress of sanctions.

The marginal improvement from the dire economic straits a a few years ago, along with the more pertinent investment shown by the Chinese has allowed the Pakistan air force to focus on multiple sources to procure secondary defence systems that are to be integrated with its air defence and long-range strike options. This also includes options to improve the airlift capability and infrastructure improvements.

Yet, there is no proof not anything beyond piecemeal statements given by civilian officials called in general are ignorant of military matters in Pakistan of any concrete development in procuring a new platform. As for now, the Pakistan air force is set on ensuring that by 2020 It will have a fleet that comprises of 80-90 F-16, 150 JF-17, 60 F-7PG and 36-48 Upgraded Mirage variants. It has decided to focus its resources on the development and procurement of a fifth-generation fighter which it intends to conduct by 2025.

To allow for any changes that can be interpreted by concrete evidence available within the news and other reliable and publicly open resources, I will be updating this from time to time.

Addendum 1:

The J-10 Procurement was abandoned entirely due to the budgetary restrictions that arose out of the post 2008 financial crises( having very little relation to the global crises) that the PAF faced along with the projected usefulness of the aircraft vis a vis limited budget diminishing over the years.

A J-10 would have been useful in 2016 but not in 2020.


@ghazi768 @Bilal Khan 777 @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Manticore

Any factual inaccuracies may be pointed out at will and appreciated.

Reactions: Positive Rating Positive Rating:
10 | Like Like:
55


----------



## Signalian

Clauses in AFDP 2019 plan for PAF can also give a relatively good idea as it gave plans for modernisation from 2006 to 2019.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## Furqan Sarwar

A very Good read and it has cleared a lot of Doubt from my mind about our Military procurement's. But the question is can no one do anything about what PPP done to our country from 2008-12 period?

@Oscar

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## satishkumarcsc

Well I still have a lingering question in the back of my head regarding the J 10. Why was a procurement program which was in full swing come to an abrupt halt? There was this J 10 B being readied according to Pakistani inputs. Was it on technical grounds? or was it because of Finance? Was engine a main problem?

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## araz

A really good read. If possible PAF would try and get the remaining F16s from Jordan pending US approval(if that ever comes!!!). However in general the report by @Oscatr is faultless. Perhaps one other aspect which you could elaborate on is what happened to the j10s. 
A

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## The Eagle

A detailed insight and good read about what really happen that includes the reason about J-10 not procured in those times. This insight pretty much validates the projected upgrade and induction of fleet and not the dream list that can be speculated to any level/number/name. Indeed the constrains forced PAF with such numbers and brands and hopes are high that we may back to track of advancement and modernization as said in OP. Thanks for the share @Oscar .


----------



## TaimiKhan

satishkumarcsc said:


> Well I still have a lingering question in the back of my head regarding the J 10. Why was a procurement program which was in full swing come to an abrupt halt? There was this J 10 B being readied according to Pakistani inputs. Was it on technical grounds? or was it because of Finance? Was engine a main problem?



From what i heard, finance was the major factor which caused the delay / cancellation. 

But may be a more informed insider can have an insight into the issue.

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## X-2.

araz said:


> A really good read. If possible PAF would try and get the remaining F16s from Jordan pending US approval(if that ever comes!!!). However in general the report by @Oscatr is faultless. Perhaps one other aspect which you could elaborate on is what happened to the j10s.
> A



U must take into consideration Pakistan limited defence budget.

J-10 is far more expensive per unit given the bigger and more expensive AL-31F engines. Pakistan AF intend to replace all its A-5, Mirage III with something cheaper price unit. They need to have 250units to do the replacing.

I don't even think PLAAF operate 250 J-10units at that moment.(before 2007-9)

JF-17 is the best option for them. Plus , dew to technology transfer which Pakistan is able to learn alot of aircraft manufacturing thru this project and at the same time replace most of its aging air fleet.

It's killing 2 birds with a stone. If Pakistan is able to market successful FC-1 together with AVIC. It may even earn a small fortune to subsidise its JF-17 fleet.

JF-17 is not a bad bird after all. I saw some CCTV video of FC-1 going thru test and real air flight. It has some stunning performance of short and steep take off. Sharp turn and high maneouvre. More or less can give u some info on how good these plane is.

One Pakistan Test pilot even comment JF-17 is as good as F-16A in *aerial performance. *
Now jfb or block 3 will better avionics,engine and other 4++ upgraded bird will give strength and confidence of PAC capabilities for future
PAC gave strength to paf by providing jf 17 fleet on short time to make backbone of paf fleet
Now pak may acquire couples of fleet of su or mirages
As pak is looking fwd for 5+ generation jet like with TFX and most probably with Chinese 5+ in future


Oscar said:


> *Introductory Disclaimer:*
> A lot has been written on the future plans of the Pakistan Air Force and much more has been speculated with complete disregard for even the slightest of factual hypothetical (_if there was ever a term like that possible_) or even the basic tenets of logic. We have relatively young/new members going ahead and speculating based on what are nothing more than piecemeal ideas thrown out as public press releases by various branches of Pakistan’s political establishment within the civilian government that the use of the military. If the track record is anything to go by, then we can safely assume that most if not all of the information is based on interpretation of basic concepts or in them by what are essentially the real decision-makers within the Pakistani military.
> 
> On the opposite end of the spectrum we have certain members who based on both seniority and time spent on the forum are basing their ideals on either a picture of gloom and doom or the best case hodgepodge of possible facts and misunderstood figures.
> 
> What are not going to be an expert in the subject at all and when they are not try to impose my opinion upon anybody; I will try to elaborate on certain known information and possible unknown known information that quietly circulates the web and is generally unseen (_the correct term should be undecipherable_). This information is not based on any insight sources for the time being. Since these regardless of how accurate these may or may not be. It is also based on my word and as far as I’m concerned, even for myself, my word on online forums means zilch.
> 
> I will not be looking to point out any sources for this because those who had not bothered to do the research to find resources should have the focus to go around and look at what is public knowledge (_if only the public would look at it_). This sounds rather arrogant, but it is in fact a resignation from my end regarding attempts to justify claims both for Pakistan’s and the more rabid and generally cynical kind that we get from across the border.
> 
> I’m not going to go beyond the early 2000’s to try and chart out what transpired. For the Pakistan air force post September 11, 2001. I will only disclose that since the PAF has already published a generally honest history of the 10 years between 1988 to 1998 , which includes its attempts to procure modern combat aircraft to supplant its increasingly obsolete fleet after the procurement of the F-16s via the United States fell through.
> 
> Instead, I will focus on what happened immediately after September 11. What is not known is that as soon as the Twin Towers fell there was a lot of speculation as to where the United States was going next. As it became clear where the problem lay and how the Pakistani intelligence services may be indirectly implicated as having ties to the enemy, regardless of their ignorance and innocence when it came to the events of September 11. Many had speculated that the United States may decide to take a wide spread intervention, both in Afghanistan and perhaps carry out intimidating strikes within Pakistan itself. With the capitulation of Gen Musharraf to the very brash and direct threats from the US government would Pakistan squarely on the side of the “good guys”. The resulting opening up of markets, which included those from the defence sector gave the generally cautious and under confident procurement departments of the Pakistani military a chance to flex their options.
> 
> 
> Before going further on why Pakistan chose its current (_easily changeable_) air force upgrade plans. It is important to look into the late 80s and the perceived impact seen by Pakistani intelligentsia on its word relations with regards to its nuclear weapons program. The super seven program was born, not just to create a local aviation industry within Pakistan . But also to allow a controllable source of air power that could be projected regardless of any dip or rise in relations with the well-known suppliers of defence equipment. To sum it up as succinctly as possible; the super seven or JF 17 program has nothing to do with any potential procurement from sources abroad and can be placed on a relative scale of importance to Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions. It is considered as a lifeline in case Pakistan ends up being outcast out of the world arena again.
> 
> *Pre-2001:*
> The Pakistani fleet prior to September 11, comprised mostly of outdated but somewhat effective, Mirage fighter bombers, 40 odd older F-16 models, Chinese facsimiles of the Mig-21C and the tail end occupied by completely obsolete and ineffective Chinese mig-19 facsimiles. A good number of Mirage aircraft were updated with somewhat modern avionics which multiplied the effectiveness and greatly, including the utilization of a very limited number of beyond visual range missiles (_with the very restrictive employment parameters_).
> A number of Chengdu F7MG fighters were being procured as a stopgap measure to replace the Mig-19 aircraft. These aircraft were to be used in air superiority scenarios using Ambush and embedded tactics that could utilize the relatively good manoeuvrability of this platform. However, these were still in the process of delivery and induction.
> 
> While the F-16s were considered the most effective type in the fleet, the combat availability of these aircraft was generally suspect beyond the first few days of a conflict. This was aptly demonstrated during the 2001 stand-off between Pakistan and India in which a key requirement laid in the emergency spares by Pakistan to the United States was for the F-16.
> 
> *Post-2001:*
> Right after September 11, the regrouping staff of the Pakistani air force (_having lost some of its best officers to an air crash that same year_), huddled around to evaluate the new options based on the incoming aid and the rebounding economy propped up by the technocrats. It was a consensus among the military leadership that Pakistan was about to become a competitive market for many vendors and the best way to attract the maximum attention of potential suppliers was to hold a defence exposition (IDEAS).
> 
> However, since the JF 17 program was now in full swing and some of the key decision makers in the Pakistani force were convinced that it was to form the backbone of the PAF as it brought with it the potential to form an effective air defence fighter; it was decided to focus on the glaring lack of an effective strike element within the Pakistani force.
> 
> Since the Pakistani air force had been operating the Lockheed Martin F-16 (_then Gen dynamics_) for almost 18 years, its first focus was to use that existing knowledge of operating what was still a very effective aircraft (_in its latest guise_) by inducting a number of used airframes to complete its original staff plan of having 110 F-16s forming a multi role backbone for the PAF. This was considered the most potent way to quickly regain lost ground (of which there was a lot) against its primary threat in India. Hence, the F-16 procurement programme was put immediately back on track in the months that followed the unofficial declaration of alliance with the United States. Since this process required the approval of the US Congress and Senate, budgetary allocations were made to accommodate the time required for this process.
> 
> While the F-16 was a very effective strike fighter; it was deemed it necessary based on previous experience to have a second are strike platform that could still operate well into a week of a conflict in case (which is considered a certainty) of sanctions applied by the United States due to a conflict. In addition, it was considered that the United States may not allow the purchase of a refuelling aircraft that would allow the F-16s to strike deep within the heart of Indian territory, as was required (_However, the US supplied per the Pakistani request the latest generation F-16 that it could export to Pakistan with conformal fuel tanks that accommodated the range requirement_)
> 
> Having evaluated and selected the Mirage 2000-5 as its primary strike element in the early 90s, the Pakistan air force was then and in 2001 convinced that the aircraft met its requirements perfectly.
> 
> In addition, the Pakistan air force had also evaluated multiple other aircraft during the sanction years, which included the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, SU 27, Mig-29 and had been given the chance to get first impressions of the Chinese J 10 fighter.
> 
> As they had decided on the Mirage 2000 – 5, the Pakistan air force approached the idea of meeting other vendors at the exposition as a cursory exercise. The French, however, refused to offer the Mirage 2000 and instead insisted that the Pakistan air force purchased the Rafale instead. While many conspiracy theories will be thrown about regarding the leadership of Pakistan military and its role in terms of kickbacks and corruption in trying to rig the procurement of new equipment; none of these wild (_but not entirely baseless_) ideas hold any salt when it comes to the selection of Pakistan’s new fighter.
> 
> Faced with a dilemma of being unable to purchase the Mirage 2000 and unable to afford the Rafale in the numbers it wanted, and unable to secure a guarantee of spares from the partner nations in the Eurofighter programme; the Pakistan air force decided to look for an out-of-the-box solution.
> 
> As they had already taken a look at the Chinese J 10 fighter and been given a preview of their plans to upgrade that aircraft, the Pakistan air force put forward a requirement to the Chengdu aircraft Corporation for modifications to the J 10 that would allow it to favourably compare with the Mirage 2000 in a strike role. In addition, just as with the JF 17 programme and other defence procurement from China; the aircraft was available immediately via a soft loan from the Chinese.
> 
> The timeline for these events is end of 2004 post the IDEAS exposition where the talks for the Mirage 2000 finally fell through. At this time the Pakistan air force was about to put on concrete plans for procuring 150 JF 17 aircraft (_as the programme was maturing enough and the Pakistan air force was confident of its abilities to form the backbone of its fleet_), 36 new F-16 block 52+ fighters, 45 used F-16 fighters and 48 Pakistan specific J-10 Variants. The used F-16s were to be upgraded equivalent avionics to the newer aircraft. The goal was to have by the year 2020 a fleet comprising of 110 F-16s, 110-125 JF-17s, 48-60 J-10, 60 F-7PG and 48 upgraded Mirage V strike aircraft. This would bring Pakistan air force to its desired level of around 350 combat aircraft. In addition, there was a procurement of force multiplying elements such as airborne early warning and control, airborne ground surveillance, multi layered ground-based air defence system , and unmanned intelligence gathering platforms.
> 
> The effect of the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir cannot be understated. The financial resources which were then allocated for the purchase of equipment were redirected (both justly and unjustly) two words relief and rehabilitation of the region (of which is substantial amount of money was lost to corruption). The PAF was forced to cut back the timeline for its procurement of its 36 new F-16 fighters and it chose to keep 18 as a future budgetary opening. In the years that followed, the economic policies of the technocrats lost their effectiveness at the same time when external aid was made more restrictive in its use available to the Pakistan military. However, the actual damage to the military procurement programs was undertaken during the disastrous and corruption ridden period that followed in the civilian government post Musharraf.
> 
> A systematic cannibalisation of the Pakistani state’s economic abilities was undertaken to feed the self-serving requirements of the rulers during that period. Any revenue that the state was generating was immediately directed to the offers of the ruling party, along with a scripting of any monetary “meat” from the proverbial skeleton of the Pakistani economy. The resulting deficit in the budget left the Pakistan air force scrambling to even provide basic maintenance for its aircraft. Within two years of the Pakistan People’s party government, it was clear that the PAF’s plans were finished and the best it could hope for was to sustain the programmes it had already made payments for.
> 
> This meant that by 2011 the Pakistan air force had settled on a last resort figure of 80 F-16s(_both new and old_), 150 Jf-17s and 50 F-7PGs by 2020. A total of 280 combat aircraft and a far cry from the ambitions it held for the higher 300 figure just a few years ago.
> 
> Yet all hope was not lost, and it was characteristic of the ever optimistic Pakistani consider a better economic turn where they would be able to exercise the options for more new and used F-16 fighters to bolster their strength until they were able to undertake the procurement of the fifth generation combat aircraft, which was to be around the mid 2020s.
> 
> In the years that followed, the focus was to try and keep up with the loan payments to be made to various lenders (with the major being in China, followed by Sweden and certain private sector lenders). This was done so that the credit rating for the Pakistan air force as a customer would improve among potential suppliers and procure more equipment if the opportunity would present itself.
> 
> Based on the latest reports that are available. Both via the Ministry of Defence production, popular aviation journals and new sites, along with official announcements; the following picture for procurement by the Pakistan air force appears:
> 
> The JF 17 programme is performing better than expected and is being relied upon to supplement those that were previously considered specific to the F-16 fleet. This has allowed greater flexibility to purchase ancillary equipment such as surface-to-air missiles, electronic warfare systems, intelligent Systems, along with stockpiling a very large number of spares for the F-16 fleet to allow it to operate even under the duress of sanctions.
> 
> The marginal improvement from the dire economic straits a a few years ago, along with the more pertinent investment shown by the Chinese has allowed the Pakistan air force to focus on multiple sources to procure secondary defence systems that are to be integrated with its air defence and long-range strike options. This also includes options to improve the airlift capability and infrastructure improvements.
> 
> Yet, there is no proof not anything beyond piecemeal statements given by civilian officials called in general are ignorant of military matters in Pakistan of any concrete development in procuring a new platform. As for now, the Pakistan air force is set on ensuring that by 2020 It will have a fleet that comprises of 80-90 F-16, 150 JF-17, 60 F-7PG and 36-48 Upgraded Mirage variants. It has decided to focus its resources on the development and procurement of a fifth-generation fighter which it intends to conduct by 2025.
> 
> To allow for any changes that can be interpreted by concrete evidence available within the news and other reliable and publicly open resources, I will be updating this from time to time.
> 
> @ghazi768 @Bilal Khan 777 @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Manticore
> 
> Any factual inaccuracies may be pointed out at will and appreciated.


Much appreciated and authentic note sir @Oscar 
U must take into consideration Pakistan limited defence budget.

J-10 is far more expensive per unit given the bigger and more expensive AL-31F engines. Pakistan AF intend to replace all its A-5, Mirage III with something cheaper price unit. They need to have 250units to do the replacing.

I don't even think PLAAF operate 250 J-10units at that moment.(before 2007-9)

JF-17 is the best option for them. Plus , dew to technology transfer which Pakistan is able to learn alot of aircraft manufacturing thru this project and at the same time replace most of its aging air fleet.

It's killing 2 birds with a stone. If Pakistan is able to market successful FC-1 together with AVIC. It may even earn a small fortune to subsidise its JF-17 fleet.

JF-17 is not a bad bird after all. I saw some CCTV video of FC-1 going thru test and real air flight. It has some stunning performance of short and steep take off. Sharp turn and high maneouvre. More or less can give u some info on how good these plane is.

One Pakistan Test pilot even comment JF-17 is as good as F-16A in *aerial performance. *
Now jfb or block 3 will better avionics,engine and other 4++ upgraded bird will give strength and confidence of PAC capabilities for future 
PAC gave strength to paf by providing jf 17 fleet on short time to make backbone of paf fleet 
Now pak may acquire couples of fleet of su or mirages 
As pak is looking fwd for 5+ generation jet like with TFX and most probably with Chinese 5+ in future

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## Tipu7

Oscar said:


> Pakistan air force is set on ensuring that by 2020 It will have a fleet that comprises of 80-90 F-16, 150 JF-17, 60 F-7PG and 36-48 Upgraded Mirage variants.



Lets assume that PAC achieve production target of 24 aircrafts per year, then it mean we will have 90 Jf17 by end of 2016. So in 2017 PAC will produce only 10 Jf17 for PAF and rest 14 will be for exports? And after 2017 we will be producing Block 3 and 50 of them in total for PAF. Right?

And a curious question, Are F7PG BVR capable? or just WVR point defense interceptors?

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## war&peace

A nice account and overall good read though I'm not sure about the facts but I will try to them verified. However most of economic reasons and sanctions add up and are true (public knowledge). However, it is difficult to know what goes on the behind the scenes in procurement deals though I have access to some the facts.

The article points to a bigger problem with PAF rather with Pakistani society i.e. adhocism and reactionary / emergency planning. We as a nation (or our establishment) have failed to identify the long term strategic goals I don't know where to put the blame...culture, genetics, poor education, national psyche, religious clerics...but the fact is that we act late...as individuals and as the nation. We prepare for the exams in the last days, we arrive at social events late and we even get treatment for the disease the earlier stages...just look around you will find enough instances. But the precarious situation gets compounded as we do not priorities smart enough.....Why PAF had to sacrifice its budget for the Earth quake while our corrupt politicians wasted money and robbed national exchequer on daily basis. One example from Israel, Golda Meir was female PM of Israel during 1969-74, Israel had a bad economy but she signed an expensive deal with USA for defence acquisitions for which she was criticised in the parliament but she stood her ground and later she revealed her motivation " I learned this from the life of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad (ﷺ)), when he died he had no assets not even food in home but nine swords were hanging on walls of his room"..
The history does not remember or care for how many eggs were available for the breakfast but how powerful was the nation and how it played its role in the world.

Reactions: Like Like:
11


----------



## SQ8

Tipu7 said:


> Lets assume that PAC achieve production target of 24 aircrafts per year, then it mean we will have 90 Jf17 by end of 2016. So in 2017 PAC will produce only 10 Jf17 for PAF will rest 14 will be for exports? And after 2017 we will be producing Block 3 and 50 of them in total for PAF. Right?
> 
> And a curious question, Are F7PG BVR capable? or just WVR point defense interceptors?


I cannot comment on the exact production targets for PAC as these might be available within MODP 2016 next year's book. 

As for the F-7PG BVR- All I know is that they practice for BVR combat; that does imply the existence(or lack therof) of a BVR system on the PG. However, its radar only scans out to 55KM so any BVR engagements would be very limited.


----------



## Stephen Cohen

@Oscar 

Very Nice and Beautiful Article ; Are Indians allowed here

I have a few things to say


----------



## SQ8

satishkumarcsc said:


> Well I still have a lingering question in the back of my head regarding the J 10. Why was a procurement program which was in full swing come to an abrupt halt? There was this J 10 B being readied according to Pakistani inputs. Was it on technical grounds? or was it because of *Finance*? Was engine a main problem?



Clarified in the write-up- please go through it.



Stephen Cohen said:


> @Oscar
> 
> Very Nice and Beautiful Article ; Are Indians allowed here
> 
> I have somethings to say


Anyone is allowed here as long as the debate does not get into a parroted repetition. Agree to disagree is the wish.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

@Oscar If I may add. Before the 2005 Earthquake, the PAF had reportedly (see Flight Global) envisaged acquiring 55 new-built F-16C/D Block-52+. The idea was that 60 F-16A/B MLU (i.e. 32 existing + 28 Peace Gate III/IV) and 55 Block-52+ would total to the originally planned fleet of ~110. I recall seeing the 55 figure numerous times in 2005, albeit unofficially through Western aviation media.

Regarding the next-generation platform. I believe it is important to understand that there is a big chance that the PAF will not procure this new fighter with the same level of transfer-of-technology as the JF-17. Given the significant investment made in the Thunder, we should expect continuous iterative updates into the long and very long-term. If the Northrop Grumman T-X prototype (Model 400) is of any indication, modern technology (e.g. composite materials, improved turbofans, modern avionics, etc) can enable legacy platforms to serve into the future. In other words, old JF-17s will be replaced by new JF-17s. 

The next-gen fighter is really for the F-16s, to maintain the upper-end of the PAF fighter fleet and - presumably - build that strike element via a longer range and heavier payload platform. If the ToT aspect is not central to the program (perhaps just focused on domestic MRO and free flexibility in terms of subsystem and munitions integration), then the breadth of options is much wider. This could explain why the PAF has not jumped to the FC-31, but rather, is apparently keeping an eye on other designs, e.g. the Turkish TFX.

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## Stephen Cohen

I have only three points

1) J 10 sale and purchase was very much on but the problem was AL 31 engine

Russia did nt allow for resale ( India too might have played a role )

The Visit of General Kayani to Moscow in 2012 had this agenda ie getting the
approval of AL 31 for J 10 for sale to PAF

2 )The Financial aid after 9 /11 was around 25 Billion dollars or maybe More-- till say last year

Initially ; A large part of it was used by General Musharraf to revive the economy
ie as long as he was in power

The total Remaining money was then divided by the three services

Some members assume that all 25 billion could have been used by PAF
That is not true at all

3 ) Many additional Mirage 2000s were Purchased by India after Kargil

The Mirage 2000 assembly line was open till 2007

So This statement that French refused it to PAF ; I am not sure why

May be the Price was too high

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## Spectre

@Oscar is there a hard limit to credit set by China or is it on situational basis? I mean USA has to make budgetary allocation and go to congress for approval for any deviations. In China how are these decisions taken - any clarity on that?


----------



## SQ8

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> @Oscar If I may add. Before the 2005 Earthquake, the PAF had reportedly (see Flight Global) envisaged acquiring 55 new-built F-16C/D Block-52+. The idea was that 60 F-16A/B MLU (i.e. 32 existing + 28 Peace Gate III/IV) and 55 Block-52+ would total to the originally planned fleet of ~110. I recall seeing the 55 figure numerous times in 2005, albeit unofficially through Western aviation media.
> 
> Regarding the next-generation platform. I believe it is important to understand that there is a big chance that the PAF will not procure this new fighter with the same level of transfer-of-technology as the JF-17. Given the significant investment made in the Thunder, we should expect continuous iterative updates into the long and very long-term. If the Northrop Grumman T-X prototype (Model 400) is of any indication, modern technology (e.g. composite materials, improved turbofans, modern avionics, etc) can enable legacy platforms to serve into the future. In other words, old JF-17s will be replaced by new JF-17s.
> 
> The next-gen fighter is really for the F-16s, to maintain the upper-end of the PAF fighter fleet and - presumably - build that strike element via a longer range and heavier payload platform. If the ToT aspect is not central to the program (perhaps just focused on domestic MRO and free flexibility in terms of subsystem and munitions integration), then the breadth of options is much wider. This could explain why the PAF has not jumped to the FC-31, but rather, is apparently keeping an eye on other designs, e.g. the Turkish TFX.


I believe I did read the requirement for 55 F-16s, but the more pragmatic elements preferred the finances shifted to the secondary strike platform. 

The PAF is not too interested in the FC-31 as there were other options from within China itself available too.



Spectre said:


> @Oscar is there a hard limit to credit set by China or is it on situational basis? I mean USA has to make budgetary allocation and go to congress for approval for any deviations. In China how are these decisions taken - any clarity on that?


I cannot comment on what the limit is set by China but they were willing to provide loans even during the dire economic doom of the PPP government even as the PAF struggled to pay even the interest on the loans for its earlier purchases.



Stephen Cohen said:


> I have only three points
> 
> 1) J 10 sale and purchase was very much on but the problem was AL 31 engine
> 
> Russia did nt allow for resale ( India too might have played a role )
> 
> The Visit of General Kayani to Moscow in 2012 had this agenda ie getting the
> approval of AL 31 for J 10 for sale to PAF
> 
> 2 )The Financial aid after 9 /11 was around 25 Billion dollars or maybe More-- till say last year
> 
> Initially ; A large part of it was used by General Musharraf to revive the economy
> ie as long as he was in power
> 
> The total Remaining money was then divided by the three services
> 
> Some members assume that all 25 billion could have been used by PAF
> That is not true at all
> 
> 3 ) Many additional Mirage 2000s were Purchased by India after Kargil
> 
> The Mirage 2000 assembly line was open till 2007
> 
> So This statement that French refused it to PAF ; I am not sure why
> 
> May be the Price was too high



1) Incorrect. The Al-31 was the FIRST thing that came up during the negotiations and just as with the JF-17; the engine was guaranteed. 

2) Incorrect. Please go deeper into the exact figures and then more into what Aid was earmarked for the military and what is for the remaining branches of government. 

3) Please re-read the post. The period mentioned for the Mirages is 2004 and India finalized its last purchase of 10 M2K-H in 1999-2000. Delivery to India was in 2004 after which no new Mirage 2000 were built.

Reactions: Like Like:
11


----------



## SQ8

Furqan Sarwar said:


> A very Good read and it has cleared a lot of Doubt from my mind about our Military procurement's. But the question is can no one do anything about what PPP done to our country from 2008-12 period?
> 
> @Oscar



To put in terms explained by a certain economist: the PPP government was eating up 90% of Pakistan and leaving just 10% to push the wheel forward for another cycle of eating.

By contrast, the current government does about 65-70% and is actually letting some meat settle on the bones left by the PPP government.

Reactions: Like Like:
7


----------



## saiyan0321

@Oscar has outdone himself with this piece. Brilliant piece. We see everyday members criticizing the airforce without any understanding of formulated plans and the economical conditions. 

What I find most surprising is that many members underestimate the era of 2008-2013 which not only had the most corrupt govt in Pakistan history by far but also had pakistan forces engaged in FATA as well as combatting terrorists in Baluchistan. They also underestimate the amount of costs that went in military development in the areas. 

The very first point or corrupt governance takes the cake. Every institution in pakistan was found plucked and the army was no different. The corruption was unprecedented and unbelievable and unreal and it saw nearly the end of pakistan economy. The air force and the army were struck heavily and many programs were found without funding which had a negative impact on our armed forces. 

The people are quick to criticize the army on any mistake or procurement but they truly need to understand the thinking behind and the budgetary constraints... 


Perhaps if the members and people want us to buy such class A toys then they should get together and help finance the armed forces. The people of pakistan want toys with conventional parity with india tooth to tooth but disappear when money comes to discussion. 

We seriously need to cut the army some slack. They are fighting terrorists, starting development projects in balochistan, fata and swat and other effected areas and are overseeing the trenching of a 2250 km border along with fencing and manning whilst making sure the armed forces are strong and advanced enough to handle india and they do all this with huge budgetary constraints.

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## rockstarIN

@Oscar

Did PAF ever thought of leaving JFT in favour of J-10, which is more capable..just like 110 J-10s instead of 150 JFTs.


----------



## Mangus Ortus Novem

@Oscar , I came to the PAF section, because I wanted to understand the dynamcis of decision making. Wanted to educate myself.

As you rightfully mentioned in your analysis the reasons, the root causes and decisions made by PAF...all makes sense now.

Thanks to you and other insightful, rational posters I have a much better understanding now. 

All in all, one can say that your PAF despite being beset by challenges in doing alright. Rather creative force.

All the best wishes to the good people of PAF/PAC.

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## Dr Shaheryar

Pakistan will add a mix of used F-16's from Jordan and Turkey to cover its initial plan of 110 F-16's and rest will be 200+ JF-17 and some old planes from f-7pg and Mirages with new modifications will be retained. New paltforms in the form of TFX and j-31 or J-20 will come after 2022. Hope for improvements in SAM and other force multipliers.


----------



## TaimiKhan

rockstarIN said:


> @Oscar
> 
> Did PAF ever thought of leaving JFT in favour of J-10, which is more capable..just like 110 J-10s instead of 150 JFTs.



I think with more capable the cost also increases. Cost of not only buying it but maintaining it. 

The rationale behind JF-17 was a capable, modern yet affordable jet. Affordable is something which we often hear in marketing of JF-17s also. 

PAFs strategy is to have a heavy fighter in shape of F-16s which are supported by yet another capable enough workhorse in shape of JF-17s yielded in numbers. 

If PAF had though that J-10 is more suitable for them they would have gone for it especially if we see timelines of both jets to be nearly same during development phase, however JF-17s took to the skies many years later compared to J-10s.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## volatile

Stephen Cohen said:


> 1) J 10 sale and purchase was very much on but the problem was AL 31 engine


To some extent 


Stephen Cohen said:


> Russia did nt allow for resale ( India too might have played a role )


Never seen any public denial by Russians ,RD93 is one example 


Stephen Cohen said:


> The Visit of General Kayani to Moscow in 2012 had this agenda ie getting the
> approval of AL 31 for J 10 for sale to PAF


Again point 1 you made clearly answers this question 


Stephen Cohen said:


> 2 )The Financial aid after 9 /11 was around 25 Billion dollars or maybe More-- till say last year
> 
> Initially ; A large part of it was used by General Musharraf to revive the economy
> ie as long as he was in power
> 
> The total Remaining money was then divided by the three services
> 
> Some members assume that all 25 billion could have been used by PAF
> That is not true at all









Pakistan incur more losses with war on terror than these aid 
*Pakistan suffered loss of $188bn during war on terror, says Dar*
http://www.dawn.com/news/1262750/pa...feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+dawn-news+(Dawn+News)



Stephen Cohen said:


> 3 ) Many additional Mirage 2000s were Purchased by India after Kargil
> 
> The Mirage 2000 assembly line was open till 2007
> 
> So This statement that French refused it to PAF ; I am not sure why
> 
> May be the Price was too high



India ordered 42+7 = 49 and current fleet they maintained around 51 so IMO 2 are brought ,PAF did not opted for Mirages as French wants them to buy Rafale ,Cost wise it fits our bill


----------



## Stephen Cohen

@Oscar @volatile 

It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10

J 10 would have been a direct competitor to Mig 29
Because it is similar to F 16

IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered

Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt

AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
than what the official and declared figures reveal

That is why we are going so slow on Rafale


----------



## SQ8

Stephen Cohen said:


> @Oscar @volatile
> 
> It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10
> 
> J 10 would have been a direct competitor to Mig 29
> Because it is similar to F 16
> 
> IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered
> 
> Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt
> 
> AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
> has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
> than what the official and declared figures reveal
> 
> That is why we are going so slow on Rafale



Irrelevant information to the PAF. Please elaborate on how the Mig-29 that is powered by the RD-93s had any logic to your implying that the Russains would not sell it because somehow India has some magic numbers of Mig-29s stored away in mythical bunkers?

My post is based on verifiable and known information; I will agree to disagree entirely with you. Thanks

Reactions: Like Like:
7


----------



## Stephen Cohen

Oscar said:


> Please elaborate on how the Mig-29 that is powered by the RD-93s had any logic to your implying that the Russains would not sell it because somehow India has some magic numbers of Mig-29s stored away in mythical bunkers?



Suppose China sells J 10 fitted with AL 31 to Pakistan

OTHER countries will also demand it like Egypt ; Iran ; Myanmar

All Mig 29 operators would like to have a LOOK at J 10

Then the sales of MIG 29 which is nearly equal to J 10 will suffer

A single engined JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

But a AL 31 fitted J 10 is a threat to Mig 29

Russia allowed the sale of RD 93 because JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

SO it was also in Russia's interest to block the RE sale of AL 31

China needed J 10 for its own security ; SO Russia sold AL 31 to it 

But the re sale of AL 31 ie J 10 by China would Hurt Russia


----------



## MastanKhan

war&peace said:


> . But the precarious situation gets compounded as we do not priorities smart enough.....Why PAF had to sacrifice its budget for the Earth quake while our corrupt politicians wasted money and robbed national exchequer on daily basis. One example from Israel, Golda Meir was female PM of Israel during 1969-74, Israel had a bad economy but she signed an expensive deal with USA for defence acquisitions for which she was criticised in the parliament but she stood her ground and later she revealed her motivation " I learned this from the life of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad (ﷺ)), when he died he had no assets not even food in home but nine swords were hanging on walls of his room"..
> The history does not remember or care for how many eggs were available for the breakfast but how powerful was the nation and how it played its role in the world.



Hi,

My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.

And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.

If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.

I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.

It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.

The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.

They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.

And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.

It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.

The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.

Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.

The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.

Hi,

As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.

Reactions: Like Like:
8


----------



## Dr Shaheryar

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.
> 
> And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.
> 
> If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.
> 
> I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.
> 
> It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.
> 
> The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.
> 
> They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.
> 
> And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.
> 
> It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.
> 
> The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.
> 
> Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.
> 
> The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.
> 
> Hi,
> 
> As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.



Is their any verifiable source that predicts the comparison of MIG 29 SU30 J-10 and JF-17 in term of combat proven fighters.


----------



## The Diplomat

We will still be operating F-7PG's in 2020? I though air force had plans to retire them. And does that mean we may see a 5th Gen. development program in Pakistan like the JF-17 program?

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## war&peace

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.
> 
> And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.
> 
> If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.
> 
> I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.
> 
> It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.
> 
> The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.
> 
> They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.
> 
> And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.
> 
> It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.
> 
> The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.
> 
> Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.
> 
> The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.
> 
> Hi,
> 
> As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.



IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafale was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (loss of almost half of the country in terms of population) and during huge economic crisis.

Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest 

I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my job is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see a bigger picture, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## volatile

Stephen Cohen said:


> It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10


At the moment J10 is not competing with MIG 29 and Pakistan was never gonna buy MIG 29 some how your comments doesnt add up 


Stephen Cohen said:


> Because it is similar to F 16


J10 is different class then F16 ,Don't want to go into this J10 is a next step in evolution than F16 


Stephen Cohen said:


> IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered
> 
> Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt
> 
> AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million


I cant see the correlation with this analogy ,Egyptian are buying all sort of platforms they have F16`s as well as Migs both are meant as direct competitor to each other ,they have Rafales and Mirages ,So some how Russian alone decision for AL31 doesnt fits the bill ,RD93 series engine being used in Mig29 is a direct competitor to Migs its sales are not stopped ,problem lies in my opinion is based on willingness for any party .


Stephen Cohen said:


> Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
> has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
> than what the official and declared figures reveal
> 
> That is why we are going so slow on Rafale


I believe you as every Country has more in hiding`
and not publically showed but recent deals for upgradation of Mirages are public clearly mention numbers to be upgraded and cost .



Stephen Cohen said:


> That is why we are going so slow on Rafale


Rafale deal negotiations are either a master stroke or biggest blunder ,Reason for go slow is either no funds or US carrot other than this India already has too many fighters and poors

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## ghazi768

Lahore_PAF said:


> We will still be operating F-7PG's in 2020? I though air force had plans to retire them. And does that mean we may see a 5th Gen. development program in Pakistan like the JF-17 program?


yes


----------



## Salza

Even Army was involved in the corruption during 2008-13 period. E.g Rtd Gen. Kiyani brother. Further, Gen. Kiyani had cordial links with Zardari as per many sources that's why he got the extension.


----------



## zebra7

war&peace said:


> IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
> I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafael was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
> As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (almost half of the country in terms of population) and huge economic problems.
> 
> Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest
> 
> I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see other stuff, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.



Good post, could you please correct the Rafale instead of Rafael.


----------



## war&peace

zebra7 said:


> Good post, could you please correct the Rafale instead of Rafael.


Ok thanks..corrected.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## SQ8

Stephen Cohen said:


> Suppose China sells J 10 fitted with AL 31 to Pakistan
> 
> OTHER countries will also demand it like Egypt ; Iran ; Myanmar
> 
> All Mig 29 operators would like to have a LOOK at J 10
> 
> Then the sales of MIG 29 which is nearly equal to J 10 will suffer
> 
> A single engined JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29
> 
> But a AL 31 fitted J 10 is a threat to Mig 29
> 
> Russia allowed the sale of RD 93 because JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29
> 
> SO it was also in Russia's interest to block the RE sale of AL 31
> 
> China needed J 10 for its own security ; SO Russia sold AL 31 to it
> 
> But the re sale of AL 31 ie J 10 by China would Hurt Russia



This thread is not about supposes and possibilities. It is the scenario for what happened.
Also, I do not find your logic convincing and cannot agree.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## MastanKhan

war&peace said:


> IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
> I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafale was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
> As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (loss of almost half of the country in terms of population) and during huge economic crisis.
> 
> Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest
> 
> I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my job is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see a bigger picture, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.



Hi,

A new item that popped up during that time was strategic power positioning and frocefully enticing a seller to your corner by promising him a larger reward.

So---the same judgement in error was committed which led to the original sanctions on the F16's---that was---not accepting what was audible---visually clear and visible to the audience but not to the Paf heirarchy---ie the coming of sanctions.

Similar blunders got committed after 9/11---. What they say is " Proof is in the Pudding " and as we see the results---we can well understand---that the Paf had no comprehension and understanding of what the opponent was doing to sabotage the sale.

They were given an opportunity put on a golden platter in the form of the Rafale---basically---the French gifted them with the opportunity---and the French in a manner literally begged Paf to buy those aircraft---because of fear of losing the production line---thus losing on a generation of aeronautical engineers.

In this case---the mentality of the buyer showed that HE was extremely focused on what he wanted to buy---and did not take into consideration the " other " factors---a classic case of a gunfighter locked onto his target

Reactions: Like Like:
6


----------



## salarsikander

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.
> 
> And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.
> 
> If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.
> 
> I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.
> 
> It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.
> 
> The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.
> 
> They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.
> 
> And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.
> 
> It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.
> 
> The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.
> 
> Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.
> 
> The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.
> 
> Hi,
> 
> As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.


Khan Sahib, 

Extremely happy to see you that you are back in your own style. Informative, detailed and smooth. Just like a poem or mechanical flawless engineering, though that is not quite possible. 

On-Topic, Janab had we gone for, say, french rafaels would that not kill our program of '17 or would it have actually pumped new life into it. Please do explain in detail with your usual manners of adding a 'phrase'' in the post if possible

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## war&peace

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> A new item that popped up during that time was strategic power positioning and frocefully enticing a seller to your corner by promising him a larger reward.
> 
> So---the same judgement in error was committed which led to the original sanctions on the F16's---that was---not accepting what was audible---visually clear and visible to the audience but not to the Paf heirarchy---ie the coming of sanctions.
> 
> Similar blunders got committed after 9/11---. What they say is " Proof is in the Pudding " and as we see the results---we can well understand---that the Paf had no comprehension and understanding of what the opponent was doing to sabotage the sale.
> 
> They were given an opportunity put on a golden platter in the form of the Rafale---basically---the French gifted them with the opportunity---and the French in a manner literally begged Paf to buy those aircraft---because of fear of losing the production line---thus losing on a generation of aeronautical engineers.
> 
> In this case---the mentality of the buyer showed that HE was extremely focused on what he wanted to buy---and did not take into consideration the " other " factors---a classic case of a gunfighter locked onto his target



Hey sir,
The failure of PAF's leadership to see the sanction coming is almost criminal because they repeated it multiple times and I'm pretty sure they haven't learned any lesson. If it repeats they will do the same. One fact is that they are still in trance over F16s, the bird has been offered to India by uncle sam, the whole production line. 
I wish they don't repeat the mistakes. The one guy who selected great fighters for PAF, MM Alam, somehow fell through the favours of PAF leadership so despite selecting two of the best platform Mirages and F-16s for PAF. He might have seen the sanctions coming but .....

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## MastanKhan

Dr Shaheryar said:


> Is their any verifiable source that predicts the comparison of MIG 29 SU30 J-10 and JF-17 in term of combat proven fighters.



Hi,

First of all---every fighter aircraft is ' combat proven ' till it gets into actual combat. 

It is just like the Gripen---not much by itself---but when working in tandem with all the complimentary and support package---it becomes a nasty little fighter aircraft---it is all about the EW suite.

That is what I have stated---Paf had no comprehension about the importance of the package---that it will make a day and night difference in what they will have---that is why---they did not pursue it with their heart and soul and a deathly commitment.

They were extremely casual and lackadaisical in their approach towards the french package---their belief that as they had dealt with the French in the past without problems---they would do so in the future as well---.

To be a better analyst---put yourself in enemy's shoes and analyze---the SU30 are your's and so is the Mig29---. The enemy has JF17's and J10's---now plz tell us what you thinking is.



salarsikander said:


> Khan Sahib,
> 
> Extremely happy to see you that you are back in your own style. Informative, detailed and smooth. Just like a poem or mechanical flawless engineering, though that is not quite possible.
> 
> On-Topic, Janab had we gone for, say, french rafaels would that not kill our program of '17 or would it have actually pumped new life into it. Please do explain in detail with your usual manners of adding a 'phrase'' in the post if possible



Hi,

With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.

We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.

And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.

Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.

So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.

Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.

Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.

Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.

That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.

So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.

The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.

Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.

Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.

J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.

And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.

Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.

With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.

Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

Reactions: Like Like:
6


----------



## war&peace

MastanKhan said:


> With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.
> 
> Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.


Now just compare PAF's attitude with PA in regard to the acquisition of new system. PA already has a great tank AK but now it is acquiring Haider MBT which will be Type-99 that will give them a technological edge over IA's Arjun and T-90M.

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## volatile

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.
> 
> We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.
> 
> And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.
> 
> Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.
> 
> So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.
> 
> Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.
> 
> Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.
> 
> Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.
> 
> That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.
> 
> So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.
> 
> The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.
> 
> Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.
> 
> Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.
> 
> J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.
> 
> And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.
> 
> Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.
> 
> With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.
> 
> Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.



We live in a strange world and every single day things are changing ,Ever since i started following in 2004 i still feel left out about Rafale ,you are absolutely correct and to answer JF17 program would have been started with block 3/4 of today had we chose Rafale French Engine and Orders for exports would have been sure short .Alas people still defends the strangest of all decision .

hadees "momin aik sorakh se 2 bar nhi dasa jata"(yani 1 shakhs se 2 bar dhoka nhi khata)" (bukhari j:3 h:1065)

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## AZADPAKISTAN2009

Is new squadron of JF17 Thunder is due on Defence Day


----------



## X-2.

Paf must acquire 30/40 su or mirages from uae or f16 from Jordan for min to min air deterrence


----------



## MastanKhan

volatile said:


> We live in a strange world and every single day things are changing ,Ever since i started following in 2004 i still feel left out about Rafale ,you are absolutely correct and to answer JF17 program would have been started with block 3/4 of today had we chose Rafale French Engine and Orders for exports would have been sure short .Alas people still defends the strangest of all decision .
> 
> hadees "momin aik sorakh se 2 bar nhi dasa jata"(yani 1 shakhs se 2 bar dhoka nhi khata)" (bukhari j:3 h:1065)



Hi,

You are correct---at this time---the JF17 would have been the ' eye candy ' way ahead of the Gripen---.


----------



## war&peace

volatile said:


> We live in a strange world and every single day things are changing ,Ever since i started following in 2004 i still feel left out about Rafale ,you are absolutely correct and to answer JF17 program would have been started with block 3/4 of today had we chose Rafale French Engine and Orders for exports would have been sure short .Alas people still defends the strangest of all decision .
> 
> *hadees "momin aik sorakh se 2 bar nhi dasa jata"(yani 1 shakhs se 2 bar dhoka nhi khata)" (bukhari j:3 h:1065)*


Let's apply this hadeeth to our leadership in general. 
And our leadership has been fooled again and again by the same people for the same reason. The hadeeth talks about twice getting deceived and declare effectively that the person has no more faith in him. But what about those who get dodged multiple times....I think they are not even human being by that analogy. 
But who are our leaders ? Do they have anything to do with the religion ... No 
Read Shahabnama by Qudratullah Shahab to get a glimpse of their moral bankruptcy and incompetence. They are unfit for any country but the international powers have kept them imposed on us. If you discuss any hadeeth with them, they will make fun of you and make even fun of the hadeeth and if you insist, they will label you fundamentalist

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## CHI RULES

war&peace said:


> Now just compare PAF's attitude with PA in regard to the acquisition of new system. PA already has a great tank AK but now it is acquiring Haider MBT which will be Type-99 that will give them and technological edge over IA's Arjun and T-90M.


Sir Haider will bring only parity with first tier IA tanks,further MBTS and other stuff of PA is much cheaper and available from large number of vendors. However PAF equipment is lot costlier and available from few countries (out of which only China and up to some extent Russia are ready to provide new jets but to be honest their fighter jets no matter how much look superior still can't reach standards of Eu or US fighters.

Instead of French we should have concentrated towards our already established relation ship with Italians. Even there are vital chances that PAF may go for Italian avionics in Block -iii JF17. 

However PAF is more of a reactionary force limited to IAF developments. If one looks deeper he may get that despite disadvantages once Rafael is inducted by IAF we may go for any 4.5th gen fighter jet either J10 b/c or Su35.


----------



## volatile

war&peace said:


> Let's apply this hadeeth to our leadership in general.
> And our leadership has been fooled again and again by the same people for the same reason. The hadeeth talks about twice getting deceived and declare effectively that the person has no more faith in him. But what about those who get dodged multiple times....I think they are not even human being by that analogy.
> But who are our leaders ? Do they have anything to do with the religion ... No
> Read Shahabnama by Qudratullah Shahab to get a glimpse of their moral bankruptcy and incompetence. They are unfit for any country but the international powers have kept them imposed on us. If you discuss any hadeeth with them, they will make fun of you and make even fun of the hadeeth and if you insist, they will label you fundamentalist


Will be off topic but you are right infact the leaders are from among us .Problem lies not technical but strategic interest


----------



## war&peace

CHI RULES said:


> Sir Haider will bring only parity with first tier IA tanks,further MBTS and other stuff of PA is much cheaper and available from large number of vendors. However PAF equipment is lot costlier and available from few countries (out of which only China and up to some extent Russia are ready to provide new jets but to be honest their fighter jets no matter how much look superior still can't reach standards of Eu or US fighters.
> 
> Instead of French we should have concentrated towards our already established relation ship with Italians. Even there are vital chances that PAF may go for Italian avionics in Block -iii JF17.
> 
> However PAF is more of a reactionary force limited to IAF developments. If one looks deeper he may get that despite disadvantages once Rafael is inducted by IAF we may go for any 4.5th gen fighter jet either J10 b/c or Su35.


I will request you provide a more detailed analysis of Type-99 vs top tier IA's tanks. I stand by my comment. Of course infantry equipment is cheaper than airforce and even artillery is cheaper than most of the air defence systems. But the number of systems for airforce is much smaller too. So the total sum spent is equivalent.
Another myth, west does not want to provide A/C to PAF is not true either. Even USA is willing to sell you F-16 but not at the reduced price and I think Rafale was available and may still be available if PAF wants..just check OP and post by @MastanKhan.
J-10 C/D is not 4.5 gen ...it just compares with F-16 ( latest blocks of the latter)
PAF is still not willing to go for Su-35 despite the fact they are happy flying F-7pg (Mig-21 China version) till 2022, but Su-35 does not measure up to their "standards"...They may very well go for EFT if they get money. And I will be happy even if they go for EFT.

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## MastanKhan

Hi,

What becomes very obvious is that the Paf was oblivious to the threat from the enemy---it was just living under the illusion of the ' man behind the machine ' kind of mentality---not coming to grips that each of the enemy primary aircraft may have 3 to 4 times the power of our own aircraft---.

Plus it not the machine that is fighting by itself---it is all the complimentary assets---advance electronics and potent missile systems that to compliment that man behind the machine which makes the difference.

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## salarsikander

MastanKhan said:


> What becomes very obvious is that the Paf was oblivious to the threat from the enemy


It's no wonder that they have not inducted any bomber or as per say bomb truck since the famous canberra ( 8-charlie)

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## war&peace

salarsikander said:


> It's no wonder that they have not inducted any bomber or as per say bomb truck since the famous canberra ( 8-charlie)


JH-7B can be a great bomber due to its carrying capacity.


----------



## salarsikander

war&peace said:


> JH-7B can be a great bomber due to its carrying capacity.


Can be ??? !! its a perfect combination and now with EW variant it is extremely potent

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## war&peace

salarsikander said:


> Can be ??? !! its a perfect combination and now with EW variant it is extremely potent


Since it is not as expensive as Su-35 so I think it can a good alternative but let's be realistic and hope that PAF gets some 4.5 gen A/C as a stop gap solution and Su-35 or EFT will be a great solution till a true 5th gen A/C is available J-31 or TFX (or a combo) . I think it won't be before 2025.

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## salarsikander

war&peace said:


> Since it is not as expensive as Su-35 so I think it can a good alternative but let's be realistic and hope that PAF gets some 4.5 gen A/C as a stop gap solution and Su-35 or EFT will be a great solution till a true 5th gen A/C is available J-31 or TFX (or a combo) . I think it won't be before 2025.


The problem is not getting stuff as painted, Its the very mentality the vision that they lack.

You see these generals and their families buying houses in the US, thats all what they think about where to move out after retirement

Reactions: Like Like:
4


----------



## war&peace

salarsikander said:


> The problem is not getting stuff as painted, Its the very mentality the vision that they lack.
> 
> You see these generals and their families buying houses in the US, thats all what they think about where to move out after retirement


You are right but Gen. are still better than our AMs and AVMs since at least they have been equipping PA with required systems while PAF totally changed its mind from once offensive force (1965) to a not even defensive (1999), I hope the situation is better now but still I'm afraid that Rafale's induction will increase that gap again...They need to change their mind. I trust they are doing a great job on many fronts and are ready to lay their lives for the nation but actually i want to see my pilots return safely to homes after completing the missions. 
As we Pakistanis understand cricket so I will quote Imran Khan, the legend, that the best defence is the offence, never play on back-foot and with a defeated mind. I put this theory to the test and my experience has been positive.

Reactions: Like Like:
4


----------



## salarsikander

war&peace said:


> You are right but Gen. are still better than our AMs and AVMs since at least they have been equipping PA with required systems while PAF totally changed its mind from once offensive force (1965) to a not even defensive (1999), I hope the situation is better now but still I'm afraid that Rafale's induction will increase that gap again...They need to change their mind. I trust they are doing a great job on many fronts and are ready to lay their lives for the nation but actually i want to see my pilots return safely to homes after completing the missions.
> As we Pakistanis understand cricket so I will quote Imran Khan, the legend, that the best defence is the offence, never play on back-foot and with a defeated mind. I put this theory to the test and my experience has been positive.


Actually you know what I pray that Indian gets rafaels and bring to Pakistan for a run, perhaps that would put some sense in their hard head


----------



## MastanKhan

war&peace said:


> Since it is not as expensive as Su-35 so I think it can a good alternative but let's be realistic and hope that PAF gets some 4.5 gen A/C as a stop gap solution and Su-35 or EFT will be a great solution till a true 5th gen A/C is available J-31 or TFX (or a combo) . I think it won't be before 2025.



Hi,

And there are some very very very senior people on this board who state that the paf assessed that aircraft and found it not to be very maneuverable---and they are okay with that claim.

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## wiseone2

Oscar said:


> *Introductory Disclaimer:*
> 
> In addition, the Pakistan air force had also evaluated multiple other aircraft during the sanction years, which included the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, SU 27, Mig-29 and had been given the chance to get first impressions of the Chinese J 10 fighter.
> 
> 
> @ghazi768 @Bilal Khan 777 @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Manticore
> 
> Any factual inaccuracies may be pointed out at will and appreciated.



Did the PAF really evaluate the MiG-29 and Su-27 ??

The Typhoon is a logistical and political nightmare with four supplier countries.


----------



## SQ8

wiseone2 said:


> Did the PAF really evaluate the MiG-29 and Su-27 ??
> 
> The Typhoon is a logistical and political nightmare with four supplier countries.


Yup, 

In the 90's.

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## Spectre

Oscar said:


> Yup,
> 
> In the 90's.



Yeltsin's Russia often resembled a yard sale. China owes a lot to it.


----------



## Signalian

Oscar said:


> Yet, there is no proof not anything beyond piecemeal statements given by civilian officials called in general are ignorant of military matters in Pakistan of any concrete development in procuring a new platform. As for now, the Pakistan air force is set on ensuring that by 2020 It will have a fleet that comprises of 80-90 F-16, 150 JF-17, 60 F-7PG and 36-48 Upgraded Mirage variants. It has decided to focus its resources on the development and procurement of a fifth-generation fighter which it intends to conduct by 2025.


There are easily 150 F-16's A/B out there which can be procured by PAF if finances allow. I hope the 150 JF-17 number is reached by 2020. This means 84 aircrafts in 4 years.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## CHI RULES

war&peace said:


> I will request you provide a more detailed analysis of Type-99 vs top tier IA's tanks. I stand by my comment. Of course infantry equipment is cheaper than airforce and even artillery is cheaper than most of the air defence systems. But the number of systems for airforce is much smaller too. So the total sum spent is equivalent.
> Another myth, west does not want to provide A/C to PAF is not true either. Even USA is willing to sell you F-16 but not at the reduced price and I think Rafale was available and may still be available if PAF wants..just check OP and post by @MastanKhan.
> J-10 C/D is not 4.5 gen ...it just compares with F-16 ( latest blocks of the latter)
> PAF is still not willing to go for Su-35 despite the fact they are happy in flying F-7pg (Mig-21 China version) till 2022, but Su-35 does not measure up to their "standards"...They may very well go for EFT if they get money. And I will be happy even if they go for EFT.




The current situation shows that USA shall not offer F16 V to PAF meanwhile F16 block 50+ can't be considered latest or hi tech. USA has signed a defense pact with India so in near future perhaps even block 50+ F16s may not be available to PAF. Many Eu countries like Germany and Sweden may not directly involve in any deal with Pak due to their laws regarding Nuclear Arms. Pak can't get any latest model of Gripen if desired. Similarly French after their Rafael deal with India will/shall not provide any latest tech to PAF, PAF officials considering option of Mirage2005-9 should keep this in mind.

On the other hand USA offered F16s without subsidies just to bar Pak to purchase these jets by simply making them out of range.

J10c/d are considered 4.5th gen fighter as having AESA radar,IRST and other next gen features with some stealth. Meanwhile F16 block50-52 can't be considered 4.5th gen.

EU fighter is much better than Su35 but we can't afford latest trench so we may go for Trench 1 jets going to be retired by member countries relatively cheaper, however we still have to invest in them for latest Radars and to provide true A to G capabilities as this capability was missing fully or partially from Trench 1 jets. The SU35 may be having draw backs like expensive handling/overhaul requirements yet still in bracket as if inducted shall be in limited numbers to replace Mirage-III/V in bomber role.


----------



## Lucky Breeze

MastanKhan said:


> Hi,
> 
> With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.
> 
> We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.
> 
> And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.
> 
> Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.
> 
> So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.
> 
> Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.
> 
> Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.
> 
> Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.
> 
> That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.
> 
> So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.
> 
> The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.
> 
> Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.
> 
> Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.
> 
> J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.
> 
> And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.
> 
> Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.
> 
> With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.
> 
> Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## AZADPAKISTAN2009

I would like to trust and believe this idea of Political Party called PPP ate all the funding. But to my knowledge every year Pakistani budget has a seperate budget for Military.

So Civilian projects impacting the purchase of new planes is not concrete.

When we had Musharraf in charge , we got things done

During Musharaf's term

We got the AWACs (4 Saab, 4 Chinese) (Delivered 100% success)

We got juicy deal for J10B 40 planes (Top of the line) *(STALLED : Imaginary Stealth) *

We concluded the F16 C/D deal MLU (Delivered 100% success)

 Not 100% but we did get SPADA Air defence also in his term  (Delivered 100% success)

JF17 thunder made progress towards completion (Delivered 100% success)

4 F22P frigate purchased for Navy  (Delivered 100% success)

OHP Delivered (Delivered 100% success)

P3 Orion (Delivered 100% success)

Right around 2008 his (Musharaf's) government was toppled when he announced purchase of 40 J10B. Right after , USA started to throw around their influence over Pakistan Military Establishment and Air froce. Throwing around the ideas of F16 C/D availability.

I recall we had this "Bone throwing event"






During the event US gave us this idea that F16 supply would not be an issue
Cheif sahib was very happy !!!! F16 wohooo .....


Now during this time , the Air Chief was , invited to US for meetings and various ceremonies to demonstrate the capabilities of F16 C/D and really show how eager US was to help upgrade our Air-force.
Was stealth promised during these meeting or may be easy access to 40-50 F16 C/D

It is also an unfortunate mention, that under the same gentleman we had the Navy Base accident where P3 Orions got destroyed
The US courtship of Pakistan Air-force really started around same time we made deal for J10B
, and as soon as we backed out of the J10B deal - our own F16 deals starts to get cancelled or delays.

We were presented with ridiculous delivery timelines of 1-2 planes every 2-3 years

Between 2009-2010, we started having doubt in purchasing the J10B becasue , we were looking for the STEALTH platform

Why did we started to day dream about Stealth platform . I wanted to ask our Management were they promised something , written on paper , that they went forward and cancelled the J10B deal

*June 10th 2010 *





Of course at this stage the F16 Fan boys, were on high rightfully it is a widely used platform world wide and excellent plane, and once again , we let our National Defence be dependent on a Weapon's provider who is not dependable

J10B as generally criticized that it , is a decent platform but won't add more to our capability. Meanwhile the same group started to but crappy Jordanian F16 A/B version just to save face.

It was a *DONE DEAL* 35-40 Planes delivery 2014 (December). Delivery was planned between 2013-2014. No delayed tactics, normal time frame delivery.

Our Air-force head was busy with chasing shadows , F16 shadows & Stealth ! On a funny note you can view his chase ironic being a pilot on an old plane he could not detect stealth on his radar.

After getting the odd 18 F-16 C/D, planes many PAF officials felt perhaps our relation with US has normalized that we can replenish our Air-force, like in 1980's. US on their own part try to delay the deliveries "Intentionally" just so that India keeps upgrading its Air-force during the 10 year period.

Around 2013-2013 , our Nawaz went to Obama , to try to get deal done for something to save face





Obama stated well no problem we will give you 8 F16 permission
and in the end we got a unfavorable deal, an unworkable situation

On the other hand, J10B , continued to evolve between 2010-2014, infact it became a backbone of Chinese Airforce

*Deal staled for planes which were to be delivered in 2014 (36-42 planes)*

















Once we realized that we have been snubbed for future F16 C/D orders , and we now had no J10B deal , we shot our selves in foot again. In order to save face, we proceeded to get second hand plane.

We got a order done with F16 A/B , *a plane that requires an upgrade*, it barely made some
number addition to force did not made any technological difference in term of Technology

Buying scrap junk planes just to make up numbers and saving face

Block A/B is quite an out dated plane







_1990_: _Pressler_ Amendment _Sanctions_. 

Effects lasted for 10 Years

Undeclared Sanctions: 2008-Present


The strategy used in the undeclared sanctions included , promise of easy access to future F16 C/D access.

The existing order of 18 F16 C/D was pain strikingly slow. Which hindered natural growth of our Airforce above 100-150 F16.

While we can't park our F16 , in special bunkers, India is allowed to discuss engine technology and even assemble the plane
Example : 

Saudis , ordered 72 planes in 2007 and now they have all these planes running in their air-force. Now they are looking for extension to this large order.
Egypt bought from Russia/USA freely when it needed planes 
Turkey also developed a potent force 







This talk of stealth , wealth is not happening we can't even effectively retire our 1973 fleet of Mirage 

How many J10 planes China Operates ? 240+

A responsible thing should be as follow, to admit, "We made an Error, and we need to get the J10B inducted , next few years". They continue to chase "STEALTH" , which is as difficult to attain as the Unicorn creature.







I protested , however after reluctance I started to support the F16 C/D arrival but in end it proved to be a bad decision. It would have been a fruitful decision had we inducted 150 Block C/D planes (which we did not).

When you review this decision from any angle , turning down state of Art J10B plane is not a great decision. Becasue we don't have any options for Stealth


This "Day Dreaming" or mistake happened becasue head of Airforce , went in by themselves to USA and met folks independently. They trusted too much what was being said , with no substance or written contract of assurance.
*
Reality Check*

Today that Air Cheif is gone, after the attack on Airbase ( So are any verbal agreements)

J10B deal is stalled
There is no sign of any more F16 C/D, unless someone retires it 

Mirage are still chugging along in our Airforce
Americans , may give you many promises. However, unless it is a contractually binding they don't care about these after 2 weeks. And this is what happened with Air Cheif, he thought he has open access to F16 C/D every year. However , in reality nothing was available.

Here we are 2016, full 8 years later !!! Almost a decade wow , and still Mirages are flying

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## Falcon26

A lot of missed of opportunities, some man made and others consequences of bad leadership. Pakistan is lucky to have an under-performing and mostly dysfunctional country like India as its premier enemy. Else of a lot of its weaknesses would have been exposed long time ago with destructive consequences.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## volatile

Hi 
Real question is who to blame ,Once a wise man said 

All decisions are Right and its unfair to criticize it after so many years. I have my logic you learn from your bad decisions and you moved on . 

1. What we learn from 65/71 US sanctions ? US not reliable partner and she will act (Very rightly) only to her interest
2. What did we learn from 1990`s Pressler amendments ? US has capped our Tier1 force and we are not needed any more US not a reliable partner 
3. What did we learn from post 2006 F16 saga ? We are unable to learn any thing from the past and we will continue to  remain miserable for the rest of our lives 

In our corporate world few things are said for blunders like this 

1. Capacity to understand business/Foreign policies / Capability to derive thru decision making process .
2. Biasness (Corruption) 

No one can deny Air force is back bone of all armed forces infact recent operations are evident to them . 
*"HE WHO CONTROLS THE SKIES CONTROLS THE WAR"*

In today's world Economics and Defence are interlinked tightly . We as nation lacks quality man power (when i say this i can say this after working with many professional around me .
In my view all things pointed out towards *capacity to understand *issue is hurting us or one can say wrong people are making wrong decisions .F16 is world class but whats the point if it cant fly . Kill switches is one theory (you can argue all day long but its a fact) . F16 spares are another issue (Oh yeah we stock up enough) but what happened if that storage area got hit during time of crises ? . 

I can bet if tomorrow LM offers F35 we will again jumping down and up ,Alas this is not a behaviour of sovereign nations .Pakistan is we and we are Pakistan .We have to fix it and these discussions are very important .

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## _NOBODY_

I wanted to ask that what is the maximum number of fighter platforms PAF can afford? Right now 4 platforms are being used and two of them will be replaced in the future(F-7 and Mirage) so this leaves two empty slots and one of them is for 5th generation fighter.

@MastanKhan Sir if we purchase JH-7 then would PAF be able to afford another platform(a lethal 4++ generation air superiority fighter).

What do you gentlemen think?
@Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @Oscar @The Eagle

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## Centurion2016

F7PG and around 50+ better less fatigued mirages will remain PAF until 2025

No way is PAF replacing all 250 F7/MIRAGES before next 10 years.


----------



## Stephen Cohen

Centurion2016 said:


> F7PG and around 50+ better less fatigued mirages will remain PAF until 2025
> 
> No way is PAF replacing all 250 F7/MIRAGES before next 10 years.



190 planes have to be replaced 

http://www.dawn.com/news/1245714


----------



## AZADPAKISTAN2009

PS : Is it wise to put mileage of 12,000 km x 2 , (2 way trip) on the F16 ?

How many F16 went to these exercises ?

2?
4?
6?
8?

24,000 KM mileage just for training ?

Our Enemy is 50-100 km raneg and why are we wasting Mileage 24,000 KM on planes ?
Shocking

Should we be putting excessive mileage on these planes ?

Few more of these Red flags and our F16 fleet would be need of another MLU?

Side main park ho jaigi F16 fleet


----------



## MastanKhan

TheGreatOne said:


> I wanted to ask that what is the maximum number of fighter platforms PAF can afford? Right now 4 platforms are being used and two of them will be replaced in the future(F-7 and Mirage) so this leaves two empty slots and one of them is for 5th generation fighter.
> 
> @MastanKhan Sir if we purchase JH-7 then would PAF be able to afford another platform(a lethal 4++ generation air superiority fighter).
> 
> What do you gentlemen think?
> @Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @Oscar @The Eagle




Hi,

Well---that is what they will have to---because they did not build up the numbers over time.

Reactions: Like Like:
2


----------



## wiseone2

Oscar said:


> Yup,
> 
> 
> We got juicy deal for J10B 40 planes (Top of the line) *(STALLED : Imaginary Stealth) *
> 
> 
> Right around 2008 his (Musharaf's) government was toppled when he announced purchase of 40 J10B. Right after , USA started to throw around their influence over Pakistan Military Establishment and Air froce. Throwing around the ideas of F16 C/D availability.
> 
> The US courtship of Pakistan Air-force really started around same time we made deal for J10B
> , and as soon as we backed out of the J10B deal - our own F16 deals starts to get cancelled or delays.
> 
> 
> Today that Air Cheif is gone, after the attack on Airbase ( So are any verbal agreements)
> 
> J10B deal is stalled
> There is no sign of any more F16 C/D, unless someone retires it
> 
> Mirage are still chugging along in our Airforce



there is no independent evaluation of the j-10. 
there is no proof china has offered the j-10 to anyone.


----------



## Sucha Kuggu

Pakistan should maintain a balance b/w two polls. Do not put all eggs in one basket. JF-17 looks good in areal performance. I think making JF-17 vertical tail fin bit bigger will make it more numerable.


----------



## IceCold

AZADPAKISTAN2009 said:


> PS : Is it wise to put mileage of 12,000 km x 2 , (2 way trip) on the F16 ?
> 
> How many F16 went to these exercises ?
> 
> 2?
> 4?
> 6?
> 8?
> 
> 24,000 KM mileage just for training ?
> 
> Our Enemy is 50-100 km raneg and why are we wasting Mileage 24,000 KM on planes ?
> Shocking
> 
> Should we be putting excessive mileage on these planes ?
> 
> Few more of these Red flags and our F16 fleet would be need of another MLU?
> 
> Side main park ho jaigi F16 fleet


Yar aisa thori hota ha. I mean the any country with a decent air force participates in multinational exercises across the globe because the experience we get is priceless. 
Plus there is always an option of reversing the meter (Pakistani style)

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## The Eagle

TheGreatOne said:


> so this leaves two empty slots and one of them is for 5th generation fighter.



Yes and the other one is going to be replaced by JFT. Problem solved, as per current development and plans.


----------



## _NOBODY_

The Eagle said:


> Yes and the other one is going to be replaced by JFT. Problem solved, as per current development and plans.


Sir I stated that four slots are being used(F-16, JF-17, Mirage and F-7) and two of them will replaced which are Mirage and F-7 and one of these empty slots is for a 5th generation fighter so this leaves one empty slot(F-16, JF-17, 5th generation fighter and ?).


----------



## The Eagle

TheGreatOne said:


> Sir I stated that four slots are being used(F-16, JF-17, Mirage and F-7) and two of them will replaced which are Mirage and F-7 and one of these empty slots is for a 5th generation fighter so this leaves one empty slot(F-16, JF-17, 5th generation fighter and ?).



IMO, till now, more JFTs  for the remaining slot. Nothing to refer but go through the OP again, you will have the clear Idea. As much as discussed by seniors and insight based upon current affairs, we can see, F-16s, JFTs, Mirages (a bit further and soon same with JFTs) and JFTs along with 5th Gen. While frankly speaking, there is a gap between 5th Gen and current Gen fleet, so lets see what is for stop gap like may be more used 16s till 5th Gen. One must keep in mind that all the JFTs wouldn't be the same (JF-17 Block-2, JF-17B, JF-17 Block-III). 
The news about new platform i.e. EFT or SUs are mere rumors until & unless official statement.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## SQ8

wiseone2 said:


> there is no independent evaluation of the j-10.
> there is no proof china has offered the j-10 to anyone.


So basically you are suggesting that the entire PAF, which includes the previous two air Chiefs, the Project Director of JF-17 and many other officials who are on record in various aviation journals are liars and you are some secret agent who can verify that it was never offered?

Please come up with useful BS at the least.

Reactions: Like Like:
8


----------



## SQ8

wiseone2 said:


> Oscar,
> Has the J-10 been exported to anyone ??
> 
> The J-10 is the first domestic Chinese built aircraft. Why do they want to share their aircraft secrets with others ?
> America does not. F-22 is not available to anyone else. Neither are the internals of the F-35.
> 
> China is not exactly known for revealing their shortcomings. That is their culture.
> 
> Chinese have issues with jet engine technology. Your JF-17 is powered by Russian engine.
> 
> It is a lot easier for the CIA to steal Chinese secrets on Pakistani soil than it is to steal on Chinese soil.
> 
> Are far as public statements of PAF officials you can compile a list over the years and see for yourselves which ones are true and which ones are smoke.



You are wasting our time. You have ZERO logic to prove that the J-10 was not offered besides some cockamiemie ideas on aircraft secrets. Please come up with something better to refrain from parroting BULL $HIT

Reactions: Like Like:
5


----------



## wiseone2

Oscar said:


> You are wasting our time. You have ZERO logic to prove that the J-10 was not offered besides some cockamiemie ideas on aircraft secrets. Please come up with something better to refrain from parroting BULL $HIT



you consider my thoughts bullshit. it does not change the fact no one outside the PLAAF and PAF has evaluated the J-10. No one knows the true combat capabilities of the aircraft.


----------



## SQ8

wiseone2 said:


> you consider my thoughts bullshit. it does not change the fact no one outside the PLAAF and PAF has evaluated the J-10. No one knows the true combat capabilities of the aircraft.


There is no fact except you making up stuff and wasting our time by trolling. Banned from thread.

Reactions: Like Like:
3


----------



## MastanKhan

wiseone2 said:


> there is no independent evaluation of the j-10.
> there is no proof china has offered the j-10 to anyone.



Hi,

You cannot reply here---but just for your information----.

It makes no difference if independently evaluated or not---. That is not how weapons systems are evaluated---. It basically is based on the past production capabilities and current industrial and production capabilities and the materials as well as available technology---that they possess---also the man power and funds they have allocated to the project---.

Which means---if you have this this and this---and if you have done that that and that---this going to be your outcome.

Reactions: Like Like:
1


----------



## AZADPAKISTAN2009

IceCold said:


> Yar aisa thori hota ha. I mean the any country with a decent air force participates in multinational exercises across the globe because the experience we get is priceless.
> Plus there is always an option of reversing the meter (Pakistani style)



Ye ki na baat Reverse the meter


----------

