# Pakistan Economic Growth rate Watch Thread



## farhan_9909

No Discussion in this thread,Only post news related to growth rate of Pakistan economy

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*Dar promises steady GDP growth*

WASHINGTON: Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has assured the international community that Pakistan will maintain a steady GDP growth rate despite the adverse affects of this year’s floods and the politics of sit-ins.

In his address to South Asian experts and students at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, the minister said that recent reforms had already led to “a remarkable turnaround” in almost all macro-economic indicators.

*The economy was growing at a rate of 4 per cent plus, while the government was targeting a 5pc by the end of this year, taking it to 7pc in a few years, he said.*
The minister also highlighted the boost in per capita income, rise in industrial sector growth to over 5pc, 6.8pc reduction in core inflation and 16.4pc expansion in revenue generation.

Mr Dar said the government had kept fiscal deficit to an acceptable 8.2pc while making an enhanced allocation of Rs 451 billion to the development budget.

He also pointed out reduction in government borrowing, a healthy increase in exports and an unprecedented success of Pakistani bonds in the international market.

The finance minister thanked Pakistani expatriates for their positive contributions through remittances, which registered a growth of 13.7pc this year, and brought $15.8 billion to the country.

The finance minister also referred to successful auction of 4G licence, which is expected to create 900,000 jobs.

*In a recent statement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, warned that macroeconomic imbalances and longstanding structural impediments to growth had prevented full realisation of Pakistan’s potential.*

The fund which last year provided a $6.86 billion, 36-month extended loan facility to Pakistan, also noted that problems in the energy sector, security concerns, and a difficult investment climate had “combined with adverse shocks to undermine economic performance in the past decade”.
*“As a result, GDP growth has only averaged 3pc over the past few years, well below what is needed to provide jobs for the rising labour force and to reduce poverty,” the IMF warned.*

The report noted that with the population still increasing rapidly, Pakistan’s per capita income growth had lagged behind many emerging economies.

The IMF also noted that Pakistan’s “fiscal deficit has widened, driven by weak tax collections, energy sector subsidies, and increased provincial government spending”.

It noted out that domestic deficit financing had crowded out private sector borrowing and had contributed to inflation.

“Private sector credit has become negative in real terms, while monetary aggregates continue to be driven mainly by the government’s financing needs,” the note said.

According to the IMF, Pakistan’s external position had “weakened significantly, and central bank reserves have declined to critical levels”.

The finance minister, however, depicted a rosier picture of the economy but acknowledged that the sit-ins led by PTI and PAT had hampered the government’s efforts to accelerate economic revival.

He noted that delayed inflows of around $ 2.6 billion, including $550 million from the IMF, which would have been released upon completion of the review several weeks ago, had also hurt the economy.

“The sit-ins caused 4pc depreciation in the value of rupee, which will cost around Rs250 billion to the country,” he said.

The minister pointed out that the protests had also affected the stock exchange trading and FDI inflows.

_Published in Dawn, October 11th , 2014_

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## farhan_9909

*
World Bank,IMF and Asian development Bank Predictions for Pakistan*

*
*Govt Target is 5.1%*

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World Bank

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*WASHINGTON, October 6, 2014*— Many South Asian countries show potential for accelerated growth in the short and mid-term:








*Pakistan*:
South Asia’s second largest economy is expected to continue on a path of growth recovery, manageable inflation and fiscal consolidation.* Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.3 to 4.6 percent in FY2014/15*, driven by services and large scale manufacturing on the supply side, and by strong remittance flows, improving private investment and renewed export dynamism on the demand side. *However, this outlook is based upon the important assumption that the political events of August 2014 have not damaged investor confidence or increased overall country risk*. These events have already inflicted short-term losses of 2.1 percent of GDP (early September estimates).

South Asian Countries Show Potential for Accelerated Growth

Source: World Bank forecast 4.4% growth rate for Pakistan FY2014/15

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IMF Predicts 4.3% for Pakistan
*
IMF raises Pakistan growth view to 4.3%*

*Muzaffar Rizvi / 20 August 2014*

*The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has endorsed economic policies of the Pakistan government and said the country is expected to achieve 4.3 per cent gross domestic product growth in fiscal year 2014-15 compared to a provisional estimate of 4.1 per cent in 2013-14. *



The IMF team, led by the fund’s mission chief in Pakistan Jeffrey Franks, said the fund is encouraged by the overall progress made in pushing ahead with policies to strengthen macroeconomic stability and reviving investment and growth in the country.

“Economic indicators are generally improving, with growth continuing to gain momentum, inflation on a downward trajectory, and credit to the private sector rebounding sharply,” the fund said in a statement late on Monday.

The IMF team, which refused to visit Islamabad due to opposition protest marches, held discussions in Dubai from August 6 to 18 to conduct the fourth review of the country’s IMF-supported programme under the extended fund facility. Pakistan Finance Minister Senator Mohammed Ishaq Dar led the Pakistan team to conclude the discussion that may help secure another tranche of $550 million early next month from the $6.67 billion bailout package approved in September last year. The fund’s mission chief in Pakistan described his discussions with Dar and his team as “useful”, and confident of continuing discussion in coming days to complete the programme review.

“The meetings and discussions held with Finance Minister Dar and central bank governor Ashraf Wathra have been useful. The government of Pakistan’s reform programme was broadly on track through end-June,” the IMF statement said.

“The mission made excellent progress toward agreement on key policy issues going forward. Discussions will be continuing in the coming days via videoconference from Washington, DC, with the aim of securing a timely completion of the fourth review,” it added.

The sources said the IMF team has urged the Pakistan government to take steps over the next three weeks for enactment of a law through Parliament for ensuring complete autonomy of the central bank, rationalise energy prices and resolve the political crisis at the earliest.

“These measures will enable the IMF delegates to submit a positive report to their executive board, which is due to meet between September 10 and 15 to take up Pakistan’s case for disbursement of a $550 million tranche under the $6.67 billion package,” according to sources.

They said the IMF issued the statement after its team failed to reach an agreement with visiting Pakistan delegation during negotiations lasting 12 days (August 6 to 18). The disagreement on agreement despite last ditch efforts by Dar scrapped a scheduled Press conference with Franks in Dubai on Monday.

“The mission thanks the Pakistani authorities and technical staff for their cooperation and reaffirms the IMF’s support to the government’s efforts to implement their economic reform agenda,” the IMF statement said.

According to a senior official in the finance ministry, the policy-level dialogue with IMF would take another three or four days to conclude the programme review. He did not explain the reason behind the extension in IMF talks, but sources say the fund has shown concern over ongoing protests launched by opposition parties in Pakistan to force Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to step down.

“The political instability and civil disobedience movement against the government may cripple the Pak economy and affect revenue and tax collection targets,” sources bared, quoting what was said by fund officials.

Dar told private television channels that the IMF cancelled its visit to Pakistan over security concerns in the wake of an opposition protest in Islamabad.

“The IMF is surprised at what is happening in Pakistan,” Dar said on Samaa TV on Monday night. He said the IMF mission cancelled its visit to Pakistan as they were going to stay in a hotel just a few hundred metres away where Pakistan Tehrik Insaf, or PTI, was holding a protest.

The finance minister termed the civil disobedience movement announced by PTI chairman Imran Khan unconstitutional and illegitimate and said it seems he was implementing some foreign agenda which predicted that Pakistan could default in 2014.

_— muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com_

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ADB projects 4.2% for Pakistan

*The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected a 4.2% economic growth rate for this year but warned that increasing security concerns, political demonstrations and effects of recent floods pose downside risks to the Pakistani economy.*

The Manila-based lending agency’s growth projection is around 1% less than the target the government has set for itself. The 4.2% projection is also half than the pace the country needs to create jobs for thousands of people every year. The projections were made in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Updated – its flagship annual report.

The continuation of economic reforms and efforts to improve the security environment would help business confidence and revive private investment, it added.






The report stated that the government’s Vision 2025 also underlines that long-term development is not possible without political stability, security, and the rule of law. The ADB said several years of concerted national commitment would be required to eliminate electricity shortages and affect the structural reforms necessary to achieve high and inclusive growth.

The report argued that the projected 4.2% growth rate in the current fiscal year reflects some easing of fiscal consolidation and increased allocations for public sector development spending. But continuing reforms and a better security environment would further boost business confidence and foster private investment. It cautioned that the prospects of strong growth in manufacturing depend on further progress in easing energy shortages.

The updates came at a time when the government is struggling to cope with the challenges posed by protesters and the aftermath of floods. Due to increasing political pressure, the government has already started backtracking from committed reforms.

The ADB said Pakistan’s ability to achieve current fiscal year’s budget deficit target of 4.9% also hinges on reforms in the energy and taxation areas. While in most major categories of spending is projected to be increased by double digits, the report added that the government is expecting large savings from a 37% drop in subsidies, which is equal to 0.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It added the savings have been anticipated mainly by cutting untargeted power subsidies.

“Containing subsidies will be a challenge given overruns in recent years, and success will depend on implementing power sector reforms to raise tariffs enough to meet costs, improve collection, reduce leakage and invest in generation, transmission, and distribution systems”, it observed.

Contrary to its commitment to the International Monetary Fund, the government has already announced freezing increase in power tariffs due to fear of public backlash.

The ADB report stated that the significant power tariff increase in the previous fiscal year helped reduce subsidies, but savings were partly offset to cover improved supply.

The ADB has projected that average inflation is expected to slow down to 8.2% in this fiscal, slightly down from 8.6% in the previous fiscal year.
*
The ADB also revised its economic growth projection to 4.1% for the last fiscal year, up from its earlier estimates(3.5%).* It said the upturn came from improved industrial performance: a pickup in construction by 11.3%, continued growth in large-scale manufacturing at 4%, and electricity supply improved by 3.7%, owing largely to the government’s clearance of intra-industry debt.

However, it highlighted areas the government ignored in its first year. The contribution of investment was low by 0.2%. The ratio of fixed investment-to-GDP continued to decline falling to 12.4% in last fiscal year compared with 12.6% of fiscal year 2013. The private and public enterprise investment in the various production sectors slipped to 9.9% of GDP. Net exports turned negative, subtracting 0.7% from GDP as import growth outpaced export.

_Published in The Express Tribune, September 26th, 2014.

Outlook: ADB projects 4.2% growth for Pakistan – The Express Tribune_

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## Edevelop

The growth rate will surge upwards when Pakistan gets stability and energy.


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## farhan_9909

*Economy*
*Reflecting some improvement in electricity supply that facilitated increased industrial production, growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Pakistan reached an estimated 4.1% in Fiscal Year 2014 (ended 30 June 2014), unexpectedly accelerating from 3.7% in FY2013.*

Reform initiated by the government helped improve economic conditions during the year. Renewed support from development partners and a $2 billion eurobond issue, the first in 7 years, helped stabilize the currency and rebuild foreign exchange reserves from very low levels. The continuation of economic reforms and efforts to improve the security environment would improve business confidence and help revive private investment.

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2014 Update revises the growth projection for FY2015 to 4.2%. However, even concerted reform will need several years to eliminate electricity and gas shortfalls and to effect the change needed to lift structural constraints on growth.







The consolidated fiscal deficit excluding grants was contained at 5.5% of GDP in FY2014, down from an average of 8.0% in the previous 3 years. This improvement came mainly from a large one-off increase in nontax revenues and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.3% of GDP. The budget for FY2015 targets further reduction in the fiscal deficit to 4.9% of GDP through expenditure economies, reduced energy subsidies, and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.9% of GDP.

Headline inflation increased to an average of 8.6% in FY2014 from 7.4% in the previous year, lower than the ADO 2014 forecast. Consumer price inflation was volatile through the year because of food price spikes in the first half of 2014. In response, the central bank kept monetary policy tight in FY2014, increasing the policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points to 10%. Inflationary expectations have nevertheless stabilized according to a May 2014 joint survey of business and consumer sentiment, with respondents apparently reacting to exchange rate stability stemming from improved financial inflows in the second half of FY2014 and reduced government borrowing from the domestic banking sector to support the budget. Inflation is now expected to average 8.2% in FY2015, slightly lower than FY2014. Security challenges, floods in September 2014 in parts of the country, and political demonstrations pose downside risks to the FY2015 forecast.

The current account deficit in FY2014 was essentially unchanged from the previous year’s 1.1% of GDP and slightly below the ADO 2014 forecast. The trade deficit widened moderately, but this was largely offset by continued strong growth in remittances from overseas workers. The projection for the current account in FY2015 is unchanged.

Source: ADB. 2014. Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update. Manila


Pakistan and ADB

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## farhan_9909

Govt reforms contribute to improved economic conditions: ADB
*
ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its recent report has said that economic reforms initiated by the government in the past year contributed to improved economic conditions, growth edged up, budget deficit shrank, foreign exchange reserves strengthened and a sovereign bond issue enhanced policy credibility.*

The Bank in its Asian Development Outlook Update 2014 released by the Bank said that Pakistan in recent years has endured low growth, chronic power deficits and large fiscal and external imbalances.

However, several years of concerted national commitment will be required to eliminate electricity shortages and effect the structural reforms necessary to achieve high and inclusive growth.

*Preliminary estimates place GDP growth at 4.1% in FY2014 (ended 30 June 2014), up from 3.7% in FY2013 and higher than the 3.4% projected in ADO 2014.*

The ADB said that upturn came from improved industrial performance: a pickup in construction by 11.3%, continued growth in large-scale manufacturing at 4.0%, and electricity supply improved by 3.7% owing largely to the government's clearance of intra-industry debt.

Growth in large-scale manufacturing reflected higher production of fertilizer, electronics, chemicals, and leather, while textile production marginally declined.

More proactive policies on energy allocation and management adopted during the year helped industry grow.

However, electricity and gas shortages will continue to limit growth and drain public finances for several more years, until further governance reform and new investment take effect.

Growth in services slipped to 4.3% in FY2014 from 4.9% a year earlier largely because growth in the finance and insurance sub sector and in general government services markedly slowed. Consumption expenditure picked up, however, boosting wholesale and retail trade.

Agriculture growth slipped to 2.1% from 2.9%, reflecting bad weather in areas that produce such minor crops as pulses and potatoes, as well as weaker growth in livestock, the latter of which accounts for 56% of agricultural production.

These developments outweighed strong expansion of 3.7% in major crops underlined by bumper harvests of rice, sugarcane, wheat, and maize-but not cotton, which suffered a small decline.

Private consumption remained the largest contributor to growth in FY2014 at 4.6 percentage points, helped by stronger remittances and improved rural incomes from major crops. The contribution of investment was a low 0.2 percentage points. A 0.5% increase in gross fixed capital formation came from a 17.3% expansion in general government investment, as private and public enterprise investment fell by 2.6%.

The ratio of fixed investment to GDP continued to decline, 3.7.1 Supply-side contributions to growth Percentage points Agriculture Services Industry Gross domestic product.

Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia: South Asia Pakistan 147 falling to 12.4% from 12.6% in FY2013 (Figure 3.7.2). Private and public enterprise investment in the various production sectors slipped to 9.9% of GDP.

Net exports turned negative, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from GDP as import growth outpaced export.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to an average of 8.6% in FY2014 from 7.4% in the previous year. Year-on-year inflation was volatile, rising to 10.9% in November 2013, falling to 7.9% in January 2014, picking up again to 9.2% in April, and then falling again to 8.2% in June (Figure 3.7.3).

This largely tracked food inflation made volatile by short supplies of perishable items. Food inflation averaged 9.0% in FY2014 but ended the year at 7.4%. Following the increase in electricity tariffs in October 2013, non food inflation stabilized at around 9%, averaging 8.3% for the full year.



The ADB report said that consolidated government budget deficit was contained at 5.5% of GDP in FY 2014, down from an average of 8.0% over the past 3 years.

The improvement was mainly from a significant increase in nontax revenues and a provincial cash surplus of 0.3% of GDP as provinces spent less on development-a measure for fiscal consolidation along with reduced power subsidies.

Total expenditure declined to 19.8% of GDP in FY2014 from 21.4% in FY2013.

Current expenditure was 0.5% above the budgetary target for the year, reflecting overruns on subsidies and interest payments.

Subsidies were lower than in the previous year, by 0.3% of GDP, but surpassed the budgetary target by 0.4% of GDP notwithstanding significant power tariff increases during the year to bring income closer to cost recovery.

Savings from tariff increases were partly offset by larger power supplies that necessitated commensurate subsidy increases, turning a plus for the economy into a minus for the budget.

Interest payments increased by a marginal 0.1% of GDP to 4.5%, as interest rates on short-term domestic debt were higher than estimated.



The consolidated public sector development program was compressed to PRs 865 billion (3.4% of GDP) from the budgeted Rs 1,155 billion, and provincial development spending was reduced to nearly 30% below budget, or by 0.7% of GDP.

Tax revenues fell short of their FY2014 target by 4.0%.

Federal Board of Revenue tax collection continued to be lower than targeted for another year because planned tax measures could not be fully implemented.

Non-tax revenues were 4.3% over the budgeted amount, reflecting the one-time receipt of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia for project development and $1.1 billion from the auction of the 3G/4G mobile telecommunications spectrum in the last quarter, as well as a large profit remittance from the State Bank of Pakistan (the central bank).

Responding to inflation and pressures on the exchange rate in the first half of FY2014, the central bank increased its main policy rate in September and November by a cumulative 100 basis points to 10% (Figure 3.7.4).

It kept the policy rate unchanged in the second half of FY2014, even as inflationary expectations eased and the currency appreciated. Large foreign inflows during this period allowed the government to reduce budgetary borrowing from the central bank, which dropped to PRs197 billion in FY2014 from Rs 507 billion in 3.7.5 Budget borrowing from banks.

On gross disbursements, the amounts disbursed by banks either in Pakistan rupees or in foreign currency against loans during the month. It includes loans repriced, renewed, or rolled over during the month.

In case of running finance, the disbursed amount means the maximum amount received by the borrower at any point during the month.

The current account deficit equaled 1.2% of GDP in FY 2014, marginally up from 1.1% in FY 2013 despite strong 13.7% growth in remittances from workers overseas (Figure 3.7.6).

The trade deficit widened by 7.7% as imports grew by 3.8%, reversing a decline of 0.5% in FY 2013, and export growth remained modest at 1.5%.

It is too early to gauge the benefits from preferential access to the European Union under Generalized System of Preferences Plus status, effective from 1st January 2014.

Exports of textiles, which account for somewhat over half of exports, grew by 6.4%, reversing declines of 1.8% and 0.6% in the previous 2 years.

However, textiles appear to be the only export category to post a significant gain.

The services account deficit widened, as inflows from the Coalition Support Fund were lower than in FY 2013.

The ADB report said that capital and financial inflows were very strong in the second half of FY 2014 with two notably successful eurobond placements, the one-off receipt of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia, and disbursements of program loans from multilateral agencies.

After 7 years without access to international capital markets, the government placed $2 billion in dollar-denominated eurobonds, half maturing in 5 years and the other half in 10 years, in offers that were substantially oversubscribed.

Reflecting the large capital inflows, net liquid official reserves swelled to $9.1 billion at the end of June 2014 from a low of $3.2 billion the previous January.

Nevertheless, reserves remained low at the end of the fiscal year, cover for only 2.2 months of imports of goods and services.

Along with the increase in reserves, the Pakistan rupee appreciated to PRs 97.5 to the dollar in March 2014 and broadly stabilized at this rate to the end of FY2014.

This followed depreciation of about 6% in the first 7 months of the year-and preceded a fall to Rs 102.6 in early September 2014 in response to demonstrations that began in August.

In real effective exchange rate terms, the rupee appreciated by 5.6% in FY2014, with possible adverse implications for export competitiveness.

Projections for FY2015 assume that the government will make satisfactory progress on its economic agenda to reform the energy sector and state-owned enterprises, rationalize import tariffs, and improve the business climate.

Energy reforms include moving toward market-based pricing and improving system governance, efficiency, and sustainability. A major power tariff revision was made in October 2013, and a further increase is planned for FY2015. The government has developed a plan to sell shares of some listed public sector enterprises in capital markets and is prioritizing others for restructuring before privatization.

The projected decline in the deficit assumes a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.9% of GDP. The budget envisages current expenditures increasing by only 1.6% from the estimated out turn in FY2014.

While most major categories of spending increase by double digits, including a 10% increase in salaries and pensions and a 15% increase in interest payments, large savings are expected from a 37% drop in subsidies, equal to 0.6% of GDP, achieved mainly by cutting untargeted power subsidies.

Containing subsidies will be a challenge given overruns in recent years, and success will depend on implementing power sector reforms to raise tariffs enough to meet costs, improve collection, reduce leakage, and invest in generation, transmission, and distribution systems.

Power tariff increases in FY2014 helped reduce subsidies, but savings were partly offset by subsidies to cover improved supply.

The Public Sector Development Program is slated to increase by 36%. The budget plan makes more resources available for public investment and, in particular, social protection, for which allocations have been increased by 38% to Rs 97.1 billion from Rs 70.0 billion in FY2014.

Total expenditure is budgeted to increase by only 1.1% in absolute terms, bringing it down to 19.5% of GDP from 19.8% in FY2014.

On the revenue side, the FY2015 budget includes measures to expand the tax base by removing exemptions and concessions, penalizing non-filers, rationalizing tax rates, and reducing tax leakage through better administration.

These measures are expected to generate additional revenue equal to 0.8% of GDP. Federal Board of Revenue tax collection is projected to increase to 9.7% of GDP from 9.0% in FY2014.

However, tax increases will be offset by a 24.0% drop in nontax revenue, which was buoyed in FY2014 by the one-off receipt of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia and large proceeds from the auction of the 3G/4G spectrum.

As a result, budget revenues are expected to increase only marginally in FY2015 to equal 14.5% of GDP, up from 14.3% in FY2014.

Consumer price inflation is expected to average 8.2% in FY2015, slightly down from 8.6% in FY2014.

The ADB report said that business and consumer sentiment survey in May 2014 found inflationary expectations had steadied, apparently reflecting improved exchange rate stability and much lower domestic borrowing for budgetary support as development partners help finance the government's economic program.

While the increase in public sector salaries and some increase in electricity tariffs will exert upward pressure on prices, declining international commodity prices and a relatively stable exchange rate should help contain inflation.

On the supply side, food prices will remain a key determinant of inflation as in recent years.

The central bank intends to stay vigilant on monetary policy and keep inflation in a range of 7.5%-8.5%.

Continued strong inflows of remittances are expected to help limit the current account deficit to 1.3% of GDP in FY 2015.

Manufacturing should benefit from better electricity supply, allowing a boost in textile production.

With access to the European Union under the Generalized System of Preferences Plus, exports are projected to increase by 4.0%.

Imports are projected to advance by 5.0%, a rate essentially unchanged from FY2014, reflecting a marginal increase in growth, easing prices for oil and other commodities, and continued stagnation in private investment.

The current account deficit is expected to be financed by continued modest flows of private direct and portfolio investment, sustained multilateral and bilateral lending to support the government's economic reform program, and planned government borrowing from international capital markets.







*Copyright APP (Associated Press of Pakistan), 2014*

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## farhan_9909

Pakistan Base year is not changed as we have believed in 2013 and instead will be changed in FY 2015-16.Considering that Pakistan informal GDP is more than 50% of Pakistan formal GDP,Expect a huge increase in GDP



> Base year for national accounts to change every 10 years: Dar
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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> ISLAMABAD, Dec 11 (APP): Federal Minister for Finance, Economic Affairs Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar Wednesday said government had decided to change the base year for national accounts after every ten years, and the next re-basing would be held in the financial year 2015-16.Highlighting the change of base years from time to time, the Minister said that the base year for the national account was changed in financial year 1980-81, then in the year 1999-2000 and the last base year was changed in the year 2005-06.He stated this while addressing a press conference here after presiding over the meeting of the Board of Directors of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).



Associated Press Of Pakistan ( Pakistan's Premier NEWS Agency ) - Base year for national accounts to change every 10 years: Dar

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## farhan_9909

*Economy on growth path, Dar invites investors to invest in Pakistan*

Tuesday, 28 October 2014 17:27

*ISLAMABAD: Reiterating government's firm commitment to cope with all challenges for putting the economy on growth path, Finance Minister, Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar Tuesday invited foreign investors to explore investment opportunities in various sectors as Pakistan was the choicest place for investment.*

The minister was addressing International Investment Conference organized by Board of Investment with an aim to highlighting the investment regime and available opportunities for investment in various sectors of the economy.

More than 350 invitees including 241 foreigners from all over the world including Australia, Bahrain, China, Denmark, France, Finland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Neatherland, Newzealand, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, UK and USA participated in the conference.

"Investors from across the globe are welcome to invest in Pakistan and the government would ensure level playing field," Dar said.

He said Pakistan was focussed on improving investment climate through implementation of Investment Strategy 2013-17.

Talking about economic policies, the minister said the government has embarked upon an economic reform agenda that focuses on four Es including Economy, Energy, Extremism and Education-Health.

He said that despite the challenges at domestic as well as external front, the government was committed to put the economy on the right track and ensure micro economic development in the country.

"We will put the economy on the path of sustainable growth, no matter what impediments," the finance minister remarked.

He said that government would not tolerate any obstacle or hinderance in its will to reform the economy adding no one will be allowed to play with economy.

The minister said that long-marches and sit-ins have delayed some transactions and important visits of foreign dignitaries, however the government was determined to continue its journey towards progress.

*The minister said the government was committed to bring micro economic stability in the country and would ensure 7% growth rate by 2018.

The inflation would be contained in single digit, forex reserves will be boosted to $22 billion while the investment to GDP ratio would go upto 20%, and tax to GDP upto 14%.

The industry would grow at 8%, public debt would be reduced at 55%, and expenditures on education would go up 4%.

He said the economy was in a shabby condition when his government came into power.*

The growth rate was less than potential, inflation at an average of 12% for the past five years, tax to GDP at 8%, Fiscal Deficit at 8.8 percent, the public debt at 63.9% and above all there were international predictions that Pakistan would default by June 2014.

He said the energy sector was on the brink of collapse when the

government inherited that and after coming into the power, the government cleared off the circular debt that helped to bring into system about 1700 megawatt electricity, reducing loadshedding and helping enhance industrial growth.

*The government performed well as shown by various indicators as FBR revenues increased by 146% in last fiscal year, home remittances went up from $13.93 billion to 15.83 billion, showing a growth of 13.7% whereas inflation remains in single digit.*

The trade deficit also decrease whereas large sector manufacturing witnessed 4% growth, agriculture credit went up from Rs.336 billion to Rs390 billion, forex reserves reached at $14 billion and overall GDP was recorded at 4 percent and forex reserves reaching to $14 billion.

He said the government has been successful in tapping international capital market after a gap of 7 years while it was in process of divestment of 7.5% OGDCL shares costing $800 million and launch of Sukuk bond next month.

He said the government has embarked upon an economic reform agenda that focuses on four Es including Economy, Energy, Extremism and Education-Health.

The minister said the smooth transition of power from one democratic government to another in 2013 was a historic development in Pakistan.
*Copyright APP (Associated Press of Pakistan), 2014*


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## farhan_9909

Old news but worthy enough to add it related to the change in base year of Pakistan GDP

Last time when Pakistan changed the base year,Our was increased by 19.5%



> The official said the fiscal deficit has been set at 4 percent of the gross domestic product, or Rs 199 billion in absolute terms.
> 
> The re-basing exercise in August will keep the absolute number unchanged at Rs 199 billion, but in percentage terms, the deficit is likely to decline to 3.3 percent of GDP.
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> The official said if the deficit isn't revised downward after August, "then we (would) have to borrow more, which isn't the case." There was confusion over the size of the fiscal deficit after the government announced earlier this month that it will change the base year for its national accounts.* The announcement resulted in an increase in the size of the economy by an impressive 19.5 percent to $82.4 billion from $69 billion.*



Pakistan, IMF to discuss base year change

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## Chak Bamu

farhan_9909 said:


> Old news but worthy enough to add it related to the change in base year of Pakistan GDP
> 
> Last time when Pakistan changed the base year,Our was increased by 19.5%
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> 
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> Pakistan, IMF to discuss base year change



But sir, what does this actually change?

Government has weathered a crisis for now, but it does not seem to be geared up to meet the challenges confronting our economy.

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## farhan_9909

Chak Bamu said:


> But sir, what does this actually change?
> 
> Government has weathered a crisis for now, but it does not seem to be geared up to meet the challenges confronting our economy.



I don't know much about the change in base year since my field is related to medicine @Lil Mathew can help.

The Govt indeed is better than PPP for economy but not as much as i expected it last year after the initial quarter impressive reforms leading to 5%+ growth rate.


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## Chak Bamu

farhan_9909 said:


> I don't know much about the change in base year since my field is related to medicine @Lil Mathew can help.
> 
> The Govt indeed is better than PPP for economy but not as much as i expected it last year after the initial quarter impressive reforms leading to 5%+ growth rate.



I think change of base year allows the government to make claims of lowering the deficit without actually having done anything. Experts would know, but many others like myself might find it hard to distinguish the change.

I think the political instability has cost us a good bit. A responsible opposition improves government performance by criticizing wrong moves and forcing reforms.

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## Sulman Badshah

Pakistan need a sustainable growth 6-9% percent in next atleast 10 years


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## Lil Mathew

Chak Bamu said:


> I think change of base year allows the government to make claims of lowering the deficit without actually having done anything. Experts would know, but many others like myself might find it hard to distinguish the change.
> 
> I think the political instability has cost us a good bit. A responsible opposition improves government performance by criticizing wrong moves and forcing reforms.



Yeh.. You are right.. Changing base year helps to show decrease in fiscal deficit percentage related to gdp and also this is only a statistical comfort... It does not allow the country to escape the consequences of the high fiscal deficit if it were not reined in quickly...
But changing base year also have many advantages..
1. It will give more updated gdp data to analyse the countrie's economy..
2.By showing low fiscal deficit and high gdp, country can convince global rating agencies to upgrade countrie’s sovereign ratings.
3. By adding more unorganized sectors, we get more accurate picture of countries economy..
Every governments usually revises the method of calculating national accounts and other macro data every five years, bringing in a newer base year and adjusting for changes in the economy. Thus nominal gdp figure will increase, real gdp figure also will increase( really base year is used to find real gdp growth by avoiding inflation effects)..
Real gdp= no. of products units*price of that unit in base year..
Nominal gdp increase will also take place as more under-represented and informal economic sectors included..

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## farhan_9909

As i had said,IMF will eventually upgrade our Growth rate within this year,

*IMF predicts 5pc growth, reduction in inflation*



farhan_9909 said:


> *WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund has predicted five per cent growth for Pakistan in the medium-term and easing of inflation to below 8 per cent in fiscal 2014-15.*
> 
> In a detailed report on the country’s economic performance, released on Tuesday evening, the IMF warns that political and security conditions in the country continued to pose a serious challenge to the national economy.
> 
> The report predicts that in the medium-term, the growth is expected to rise to around 5pc, due mainly to easing fiscal adjustment and improvements in structural bottlenecks in the energy sector, public enterprises, and the investment climate.
> 
> _Take a look: IMF lifts growth forecast for Pakistan_
> 
> Average inflation is expected to ease to below 8pc in fiscal year 2014-15 and fall further thereafter, as inflation expectations will be anchored by tight monetary policy and sustainable fiscal policy.
> 
> Foreign exchange reserves are expected to exceed $14 billion by end-June 2015 — a coverage ratio of over three months of imports.
> 
> The current account deficit is expected to widen to about 11/2 pc of GDP, driven by stagnant exports while non-oil imports pick up. The sharp decline in world oil prices should help contain import growth.
> 
> Reserves accumulation will be supported by the State Bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange spot market, privatisation proceeds, multilateral disbursements, and external private financing.
> 
> But the report also warns that slippages in policy implementation could impede investment and weaken growth prospects, undermining progress in macro-stabilisation.
> 
> Political and security conditions remain challenging.
> 
> Recent political unrest, terrorist threats with attendant military operations in the border region with Afghanistan, sectarian violence, and urban criminal activity all pose significant risks.
> 
> Recent floods present additional downside risks to growth and fiscal performance.
> 
> The report notes that the country continues to face external vulnerabilities. Reserves levels and coverage ratios remain insufficient. Downside risks include weakened global economic conditions, which could impair exports and hurt remittances; and global financial volatility, which could make debt issuance more difficult and costly.
> 
> Sustained decline in oil prices also poses an upside risk, which may help ease balance of payments pressures and boost growth.
> 
> The IMF reminds the government that structural reforms are critical for achieving high and sustainable growth. It notes that the government’s reform agenda is moving forward, focusing in particular on energy sector reform, public enterprises, import tariffs, and the business climate.
> 
> The comprehensive energy sector reform is addressing long-standing issues of price distortions, costly subsidies, collection problems, supply and distribution deficiencies, and governance and regulatory weaknesses.
> 
> The IMF notes that the government is on track to reduce the electricity subsidy to 0.7 pc of GDP in fiscal 2014-15, through the surcharge implemented in October 2014 and tariffs adjustments planned for January and February 2015.
> 
> The Fund hopes that reduction in electricity subsidy, together with improved efficiency and collection, will also help reduce the circular debt arrears.
> 
> For the gas sector, construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal is nearly completed, which will improve supply and help reduce the cost of electricity generation. New gas prices will be announced by January 2015.
> 
> The government’s commitment to privatisation of public sector enterprises remains strong. The government is moving forward with the offering of a number of enterprises for privatisation, and plans to accelerate the pace of offerings/transactions in the coming year.
> 
> Trade reform is focusing on simplifying tariff rates, shifting most items to a lower rate, and eliminating trade statutory regulatory orders that establish special rates and/or nontariff barriers.
> 
> IMF predicts 5pc growth, reduction in inflation - Pakistan - DAWN.COM


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## Sulman Badshah

To sustain itself Pakistan definetly need 8% per year for atleast 5 years


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## Halimi

Would it be fair to say the economy has generally done well over the past year, especially considering all the uncertainty?


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## farhan_9909

*Most recent,World bank economic forecast for Pakistan*
_*

SOUTH ASIA*

Growth in South Asia rose to an estimated 5.5 percent in 2014 from a 10-year low of 4.9 percent in 2013. The upturn was driven by India, the region’s largest economy, which emerged from two years of modest growth. Regional growth is projected to rise to 6.8 percent by 2017, as reforms ease supply constraints in India, political tensions subside in Pakistan, remittances remain robust in Bangladesh and Nepal, and demand for the region’s exports firms. Past adjustments have reduced vulnerability to financial market volatility. Risks are mainly domestic and of a political nature. Sustaining the pace of reform and maintaining political stability are key to maintaining the recent growth momentum.

Projected Growth rate for Pakistan
_
Calendar year = 5%
Financial year = 5.4%






To Read the Complete Report

South Asia

More Points about Pakistan from the Report

_
Growth in Pakistan,the region’s second largest economy, accelerated to 5.4 percent in FY2013-14 from 4.4 percent the previous year, reflecting a lull in political turmoil and increased macroeconomic stability under an IMF support program. However, a spike in political unrest in the second half of 2014 has taken a toll on confidence and activity._
_
With inflation falling to an 11-year low in Pakistan, the central bank lowered its benchmark rate in November.
_

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## farhan_9909

IMF also projects 5% Growth rate for Pakistan now

IMF DataMapper

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## farhan_9909

*ISLAMABAD* – Federal Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Senator Ishaq Dar on Monday expressed the hope that Pakistan would achieve its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) *growth target of 5.1 per cent* for the year 2014-15 as all the major economic indicators were on positive trajectory.

Pakistan to achieve GDP growth target of 5.1% this year: Dar

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## ziaulislam

farhan_9909 said:


> IMF also projects 5% Growth rate for Pakistan now
> 
> IMF DataMapper







but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!

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## Donatello

ziaulislam said:


> but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!



Nepal and Maldives have much smaller economies than Pakistan.


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## farhan_9909

ziaulislam said:


> but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!



They are not our concern as they are not under the extremism we are in now.anything more than 5% is satisfactory for me though i do want a +6% growth rate


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## ziaulislam

Donatello said:


> Nepal and Maldives have much smaller economies than Pakistan.


Thats my point if pakistan is doing bad then them in terms of GDP growth than it tells us the whole story of our performance.
nepal and maldives are one of the poorest and resource limited countries yet they are having a btter GDP growth than pakistan. forget about bangladesh, srilanka and india.

the reason is obvious, power crisis has worsen with no foresight of improvement, govt subsides in power sector and co operation has eaten away any development funds. i was hoping the PML N will atleast do some improvement in power recovery but instead it has worsen. there also no signs of taking away expensive production from small industry based captive plants or improving DESCOs. 
cut it short, performance wise they have been worse than PPPP. Though i am confident they will win again unless someone dies in PPPP. Pakistani peoples (especially the educated class) have hope that cant be squashed by any lengths of inefficiencies


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## I FLY HIGH

But you see FY 12-13 Pakistan growth was mere 3.5 %, while last year it grew to 4.4%, while this year it is expected to be over 5 percent , it is a steady growth , while i believe that Pakistan is taking good steps against terrorism , Chinese investment will also reach and big companies are in mood to invest now as energy issues are foreseen to be resolved with LNG imports and new power plants , all these factors suggest that Pakistan growth is going to shoot upwards in the coming time . Moreover the investors have seen that In Paksitan Political protests cannot topple the system as the political system in extending its roots deeper than ever before .


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## BetterPakistan

At least Pakistan needs 7% growth rate to provide jobs to the 2 million youth entering into job market every year. Predictions are that Pakistan GDP growth for 2014 will be 5.1% after this fiscal year ends.


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## ziaulislam

farhan_9909 said:


> They are not our concern as they are not under the extremism we are in now.anything more than 5% is satisfactory for me though i do want a +6% growth rate



do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!

instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 1.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.

*losses and non recoveries are at all time high*
*DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high*
*private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants*
AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. *TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN. *
*privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era*

i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised

the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism
*
the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.

i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years. 

i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program

*

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## Donatello

ziaulislam said:


> Thats my point if pakistan is doing bad then them in terms of GDP growth than it tells us the whole story of our performance.
> nepal and maldives are one of the poorest and resource limited countries yet they are having a btter GDP growth than pakistan. forget about bangladesh, srilanka and india.
> 
> the reason is obvious, power crisis has worsen with no foresight of improvement, govt subsides in power sector and co operation has eaten away any development funds. i was hoping the PML N will atleast do some improvement in power recovery but instead it has worsen. there also no signs of taking away expensive production from small industry based captive plants or improving DESCOs.
> cut it short, performance wise they have been worse than PPPP. Though i am confident they will win again unless someone dies in PPPP. Pakistani peoples (especially the educated class) have hope that cant be squashed by any lengths of inefficiencies



You're missing the point here. Maldives and Nepal are very small economies, so an investment will have a bigger impact over there than in Pakistan. Maldives is heavily dependent on tourism and same with Nepal. Look at Afghanistan's numbers from a few years ago, 14% growth....that is because Afghanistan economy is so small that even a 10 billion dollar aid that came in registered a big growth rate. We have a growth that is mostly consumer oriented and local. FDI is lacking. With consistent FDI, Pakistan can easily push 7% and beyond.


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## farhan_9909

ziaulislam said:


> do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
> its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!
> 
> instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 2.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.
> 
> *losses and non recoveries are at all time high*
> *DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high*
> *private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants*
> AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
> oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
> tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. *TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN. *
> *privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era*
> 
> i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised
> 
> the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism
> *
> the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.
> 
> i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years.
> 
> i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program
> *



I will respond to you in other thread

NOTE:* GUYS THIS THREAD IS NOT FOR DISCUSSION,As THIS IS ONLY TO POST NEWS RELATED TO PAKISTAN GROWTH RATE*


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## I FLY HIGH

First of a


ziaulislam said:


> do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
> its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!
> 
> instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 2.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.
> 
> *losses and non recoveries are at all time high*
> *DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high*
> *private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants*
> AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
> oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
> tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. *TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN. *
> *privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era*
> 
> i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised
> 
> the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism
> *
> the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.
> 
> i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years.
> 
> i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program
> *


 First of all , i appreciate that we are criticizing the govt , but someway or the other we must be realistic as well, Pakistan has many complex problems as you stated 1- state owned enterprises like PIA , Railways , steel mills etc .2- Power shortages 3- Discos line losses and recoveries 4- Gas shortages 5- low FDI 6- Inflation 7 Balance of payment s8- Unemployment . These are all problem which are chronic for years and has been eating us up since long . Govt took over in june 13 and now we are in fab 15. It is 20 months since they took over and by expecting that all the problems which you mentioned are resolved with a delete button is absolutely wrong and unrealistic expectation . But that does not means that govt has not done anything , PIA and discos are in process of privatization and govt is actively working to privatise them . Fesco privatization would be the first to privatized which will lead us the way for other Disco s as well . Now come to power generation ,Lng terminal for 600 mmcfd will be complete in march 15 and cost of producing electricity will come down as Diesel generation will be stopped . With another plant 600 mmcfd , govt will produce 3600 mwatts which will fulfil the current requirement and the idle capacity would also be utilized for generation . Pakistan steel is picking up its production now as it is working on 45 % capacity compared to 1% capacity before this govt , will be raised up to 77% during current year . So on the whole things are moving to right direction and these things take time but if govt remains commited and on track these issues could be resolved .


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## ziaulislam

I FLY HIGH said:


> First of a
> First of all , i appreciate that we are criticizing the govt , but someway or the other we must be realistic as well, Pakistan has many complex problems as you stated 1- state owned enterprises like PIA , Railways , steel mills etc .2- Power shortages 3- Discos line losses and recoveries 4- Gas shortages 5- low FDI 6- Inflation 7 Balance of payment s8- Unemployment . These are all problem which are chronic for years and has been eating us up since long . Govt took over in june 13 and now we are in fab 15. It is 20 months since they took over and by expecting that all the problems which you mentioned are resolved with a delete button is absolutely wrong and unrealistic expectation . But that does not means that govt has not done anything , PIA and discos are in process of privatization and govt is actively working to privatise them . Fesco privatization would be the first to privatized which will lead us the way for other Disco s as well . Now come to power generation ,Lng terminal for 600 mmcfd will be complete in march 15 and cost of producing electricity will come down as Diesel generation will be stopped . With another plant 600 mmcfd , govt will produce 3600 mwatts which will fulfil the current requirement and the idle capacity would also be utilized for generation . Pakistan steel is picking up its production now as it is working on 45 % capacity compared to 1% capacity before this govt , will be raised up to 77% during current year . So on the whole things are moving to right direction and these things take time but if govt remains commited and on track these issues could be resolved .



steel mills got to 45% production after how many billion rupees bail out.
Who is building the LNG terminal..engro
FESCO is doing fine, i dont understand why to privatize *the best performing companies first. *rather they should implement the ASIAN bank 1.3 billion dollars mart meters project.

i cannot see anything worth in your post but laziness on part of govt. 5 years are not enough to improve things , i fully agree but isnt enough to *START doing the right things * what worries me is things are getting worse not better. all of the problems you quoted (except privatization and to some extent partially FDI) comes out to one thing, better management in power sector



farhan_9909 said:


> I will respond to you in other thread
> 
> NOTE:* GUYS THIS THREAD IS NOT FOR DISCUSSION,As THIS IS ONLY TO POST NEWS RELATED TO PAKISTAN GROWTH RATE*



Ok. what i am saying is why a govt is being praised when its performance is nothing but ordinary. i will not discuss anything here


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## I FLY HIGH

ziaulislam said:


> steel mills got to 45% production after how many billion rupees bail out.
> Who is building the LNG terminal..engro
> FESCO is doing fine, i dont understand why to privatize *the best performing companies first. *rather they should implement the ASIAN bank 1.3 billion dollars mart meters project.
> 
> i cannot see anything worth in your post but laziness on part of govt. 5 years are not enough to improve things , i fully agree but isnt enough to *START doing the right things * what worries me is things are getting worse not better. all of the problems you quoted (except privatization and to some extent partially FDI) comes out to one thing, better management in power sector
> 
> 
> 
> Ok. what i am saying is why a govt is being praised when its performance is nothing but ordinary. i will not discuss anything here


Very intresting , Can u tell me that how a droughted Steel mills could be revived without money , govt had to inject money to revive which it has done . If you think there is some magic stick without liquidity it is your choice but important thing is PSM is on the way to revive .We have to appreciate what govt has done in 20 months . secondly in the first post you did not agree that govt is to privatise Discos while now the question is why first Fesco ? Govt has to privatise all Discos this tenure, but it would be easy to privatise Fesco and with its privatisation it would create a trend for our investors while cost of production of electricity would decrease in couple of years with Lng and other measures which will bring down the losses of other loss making discos so it would be easy for govt to Privatise in coming years . But this policy is really appreciable . Well for power sector we have to privatise the Discos and put LNG , coal power plants and hydel (terbella 4, Neelam Jehlum, etc ) ,and renewable (Qaid e azam solar park) to produce cheaper electricity than on diesel and furnance oil . This is the correct policy and govt is not making the things worst as you say how? Does making of LNG plants is worse , Terbella 4, Coal power projects , privatisation , are these things worse if you compare with last decade ? How can you comment this ? Definately things are better driven now .

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## farhan_9909

Most latest projection by World bank







South Asia, now the fastest-growing region in the world, could take greater advantage of cheap oil to reform energy pricing


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## Matrixx

farhan_9909 said:


> Most latest projection by World bank
> 
> View attachment 214887
> 
> 
> South Asia, now the fastest-growing region in the world, could take greater advantage of cheap oil to reform energy pricing


and Pakistan is the worst performer in S Asia in 2016

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## farhan_9909

Matrixx said:


> and Pakistan is the worst performer in S Asia in 2016



This thread is not for discussion and yes,we are in recovery phase.The above indicators even for this year will change let alone next year.

We are expecting 4.8% growth rate this year against the govt estimate of 5.8%,World bank 4.4% and IMF 4.5%


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## Matrixx

farhan_9909 said:


> This thread is not for discussion and yes,we are in recovery phase.The above indicators even for this year will change let alone next year.
> 
> We are expecting 4.8% growth rate this year against the govt estimate of 5.8%,World bank 4.4% and IMF 4.5%


Whatever you dont like is not part of discussion....I dont think I am off topic.

Lets not consider govt numbers they are always biased

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## farhan_9909

ADB increase forecast from 4.3% to 4.5% for this year

====================
Despite strong political support for reforms, Pakistan still faced a host of challenges hampering its potential growth, forecast at 4.5 per cent of GDP this year, said Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Takehiko Nakao on Saturday.

Addressing a news conference on the opening day of the 48th annual meeting of the bank’s board of directors, Mr Nakao said his institution forecast Pakistan’s growth rate for the current financial year at 4.5pc against last year’s 4.2pc. He said the country would grow by 4.6pc in the next fiscal year.

The ADB’s growth forecast is lower than the government’s projections for current year’s growth rate at 5.1pc and 6.1pc for the next financial year.

Challenges hampering Pakistan’s potential growth, says ADB chief - Pakistan - DAWN.COM


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## Viper0011.

Matrixx said:


> and Pakistan is the worst performer in S Asia in 2016



What you missed casually and due to your genetic hate towards Pakistan is the fact that NO ONE can forecast 2016 accurately when 2015 isn't even over yet, even HALF of 2015 isn't over yet. The first two quarters provide basic understanding about projections for the next year. The last two, help solidify those projections and corrections are made. 
If you don't know how this works, you should learn a little bit about investment, growth, finance and economy a little bit.

Next, countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh are totally different than Pakistan. Their growth rate, in comparison to Pakistan means nothing. Pakistan is a MUCH bigger country compared to any of these. For example, Bangladesh has about 170 million people, while Sri Lanka is below 25 million and Nepal is around 30 million....and Pakistan has around 200 million people. Do you see the difference? 

Now Pakistan, area and size wise, is 6 times larger than Bangladesh and about 12 times larger than Nepal and Sri Lanka (roughly speaking). So do you see how Pakistan's growth at 4.5% would still be massive when compared to a MUCH smaller country like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or Nepal? Their population size and actual sizes are small. So even moderate additions to their economies will result in 58% growth, but in monetary values, this growth would be much smaller compared to another country's growth with 5-10 times more are and people. The actual monetary value for a much larger country would be worth a LOT more, and the GDP would grow a LOT more than any of the former examples I gave you. 
Just fyi: IMF's current data shows Pakistan at number 26 on the list out of 188 countries in the world. While Bangladesh is number 35, Sri Lanka is number 65 and Nepal is 95. So Pakistan's GDP is about 60% more than Bangladesh right now. Forget about a comparison between Nepal (number 95) and Sri Lanka (number 65).....I hope this helps. 

People should educate themselves about a topic before writing utter crap out of blind patriotism or sheer stupidity or personal hatred as it wastes everyone's time on here. People come on here to read quality posts, not low quality crap!



Matrixx said:


> Whatever you dont like is not part of discussion....I dont think I am off topic.
> Lets not consider govt numbers they are always biased



To be frank here, you are off topic. Read my previous post and analysis of your previous post. The things you correlate to Pakistan's GDP / economy's growth, have NO comparison to begin with!!

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## Matrixx

Viper0011. said:


> What you missed casually and due to your genetic hate towards Pakistan is the fact that NO ONE can forecast 2016 accurately when 2015 isn't even over yet, even HALF of 2015 isn't over yet. The first two quarters provide basic understanding about projections for the next year. The last two, help solidify those projections and corrections are made.
> If you don't know how this works, you should learn a little bit about investment, growth, finance and economy a little bit.
> 
> Next, countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh are totally different than Pakistan. Their growth rate, in comparison to Pakistan means nothing. Pakistan is a MUCH bigger country compared to any of these. For example, Bangladesh has about 170 million people, while Sri Lanka is below 25 million and Nepal is around 30 million....and Pakistan has around 200 million people. Do you see the difference?
> 
> Now Pakistan, area and size wise, is 6 times larger than Bangladesh and about 12 times larger than Nepal and Sri Lanka (roughly speaking). So do you see how Pakistan's growth at 4.5% would still be massive when compared to a MUCH smaller country like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or Nepal? Their population size and actual sizes are small. So even moderate additions to their economies will result in 58% growth, but in monetary values, this growth would be much smaller compared to another country's growth with 5-10 times more are and people. The actual monetary value for a much larger country would be worth a LOT more, and the GDP would grow a LOT more than any of the former examples I gave you.
> Just fyi: IMF's current data shows Pakistan at number 26 on the list out of 188 countries in the world. While Bangladesh is number 35, Sri Lanka is number 65 and Nepal is 95. So Pakistan's GDP is about 60% more than Bangladesh right now. Forget about a comparison between Nepal (number 95) and Sri Lanka (number 65).....I hope this helps.
> 
> People should educate themselves about a topic before writing utter crap out of blind patriotism or sheer stupidity or personal hatred as it wastes everyone's time on here. People come on here to read quality posts, not low quality crap!
> 
> 
> 
> To be frank here, you are off topic. Read my previous post and analysis of your previous post. The things you correlate to Pakistan's GDP / economy's growth, have NO comparison to begin with!!


well genetic hate is mutual. even 2015 data is also forecast. Pakistan can be compare with BD since their population is around 25 million less and growing 2 % faster than Pakistan.

I think you would agree that India and pakistan should never be compared economically since India is in different league


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## farhan_9909

This thread is not for discussion.


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## farhan_9909

*Standard and Poor's (S&P) Ratings Services on Monday revised projections for Pakistan's average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2015 to 2017 to 4.6 per cent from 3.8 per cent and also upped its outlook on Pakistan's long-term 'B-' credit rating to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’.*

*The per-capita GDP was estimated to increase 4.3pc to about $1,460 this year, from 5.4pc in 2014. S&P affirmed Pakistan's 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings.*

S&P attributes the largely positive projections to diversification in income generation, the government's efforts towards fiscal consolidation, improvement in external financing conditions and performance, and stronger capital inflows and remittances.

S&P improves Pakistan's credit-rating outlook, GDP growth projections - Business - DAWN.COM


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## Donatello

farhan_9909 said:


> Most latest projection by World bank
> 
> View attachment 214887
> 
> 
> South Asia, now the fastest-growing region in the world, could take greater advantage of cheap oil to reform energy pricing



Nepal will take a hit because of the massive quake.
India obviously fudged up the numbers, so no one knows how much real growth.

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## Sulman Badshah

*Pakistan’s economy growing despite macroeconomic imbalances*

Business
19 HOURS AGO BY INP




Economic growth of Pakistan is expected to improve in the coming years, partly due to government’s major efforts to address electricity shortages and other infrastructural bottlenecks. However, there is urgent need to make this growth more inclusive and broad-based by spreading its benefits to all parts of the country and segments of the society, said Dr Muhammad Hussain Malik, former chief, ESCAP Macroeconomic, Policy and Analysis Section, who presented the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2015 in Islamabad Thursday at the UN Information Centre together with Professor Ashfaque Hasan Khan, Dean School of Social Sciences at NUST, and Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, Executive Director, Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

The survey titled making growth more inclusive for sustainable development shows that growth in the region’s developing nations will increase only slightly to 5.9 per cent in 2015 from 5.8 per cent last year with no significant change expected in 2016.

In Pakistan, economic growth picked-up to 4.1% in 2014 from average of 3.7% in the previous three years. Growth is expected to rise to 5.1% in 2015. Inflation is on the decline and budget deficit is being contained. Foreign exchange reserves have significantly improved. Market confidence in Pakistan’s outlook seems to have improved. In April 2014, the country issued sovereign bonds in international markets for the first time in seven years and it was oversubscribed.

Professor Ashfaque Hasan Khan noted that Pakistan’s economic growth has slowed down considerably over the last several years, giving rise to youth unemployment. He emphasized the need to readjust the country’s fiscal and monetary policy to revive inclusive growth.

Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri said that for growth to catalyse sustainable development it was crucial to achieve macro-economic stability and to distribute its benefits at micro level.

Launching the Survey in Bangkok, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, UN ESCAP Executive Secretary emphasized the need to promote quality growth and shared prosperity in the region, calling on regional policymakers to integrate and mainstream inclusive growth by adopting a mixed set of measures to achieve better social and environmental outcomes to enhance public welfare.

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific has been monitoring regional progress providing cutting-edge analyses and guiding policy discussion to support inclusive and sustainable development in the region since 1947


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## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> 3) If you can't comprehend basics of strategy and economy, you should not write back spiting stupidity. You can write down my words today and you'll feel butt pain in the next 10-12 years when Pakistani economy crosses 2 trillion. Which I think is a piece of cake as long as the country's political system works, democracy stays and its leaders continue to do what they are doing now.
> 
> 
> .


(I came across this brilliant post on another thread post, but before I could reply, the thread disappeared, I hope you wont mind, if you could teach us some basic economics here)


Dear sir,

As you seem to have unparalleled comprehension of basic economy, Please do elaborate the above post where you do state in 12 years pakistan's economy ill cross 2 Trillion dollars.

Please do provide further explanation about the economy -

I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years.







You are estimating that GDP of Pakistan will go from 250 billion to 2000 Billion in 12 years. That would translate into an approximate 19% growth rate for next 12 years on the GDP.








I do not have an economics degree, or have studied economics. I would be a great pleasure to understand the sound basic economics principle that we are unaware of used to make such brilliant projections.

regards

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## Mr.Nair

Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2015-2050 Outlook

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## MilSpec

Mr.Nair said:


> Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2015-2050 Outlook


@Viper0011. 
Dear sir, 

Do you disagree with the above, and please do point out the flaws behind their basic economics flaws....

regards


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## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> @Viper0011.
> Dear sir,
> Do you disagree with the above, and please do point out the flaws behind their basic economics flaws....
> regards



Hi - Yes, this report has 0 basis or use beyond Q3/2015. Even for the next item, which if 2020, this is useless. For one, how do you know that an economy will grow or shrink by X degree without taking into account the things happening inside an economy, as well as things happening in the external world, posing either a beneficial environment for growth or posting a threat like a war, earth quakes, etc, etc.

This is just a forecast. Not a fact based prediction, in fact, there is nothing fact based beyond Q3/2015 in it. Let's take a few items and analyze those for example:

1) GDP growth rate. Today it is around 4.14, I can agree with that. But in 2020, 2030 and 2050...its foretasted to be at 3.96. Will you buy that? That someone just made a prediction of a constant GDP growth rate for over 3 decades to be the SAME? Makes no common sense.

Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.

2) If today the growth rate is 4.14, BEFORE a massive $ 46 billion is pumped into the Pakistani economy, and then considering associated expansion of trade to 300 millions estimated users in China through the economic corridor (and add probably 20-40 million more people / trade beneficiaries from the Central Russian states), don't you think the growth will significantly increase beyond what it is today (4.14)?? Common sense says it will increase significantly.

But, the report actually decreases the Growth Rate down to 3.96% in 2020, when there would be four times the amount of economic activity going on by that time? That makes no sense. The actual growth rate by 2020 would be around 7-8% per year as Pakistan would've doubled up the consumer base through trade to China through Gawader, WITHOUT having to double up her own population (as the massive 300 million consumers of your ports are Chinese citizens)?

So Pakistan will be passing through products and services bi-directional to accommodate 300 million consumers, but without having a burden to open up schools, hospitals, building roads or Hydro dams for even ONE of these 300 million Chinese consumers as they are Chinese citizens and are a responsibility of their own nation.....imagine the extra revenue it would generate and the economic throughput this one huge project would bring to manufacturing, and transportation, new cities would be developed around the trade route, new hospitals, airports, hotels, water dams, parks, schools, universities, etc, etc. ALL sparking a huge economic uplift due to just one project. Then, there are other projects and growth plans in place for the entire system.....so reducing annual growth rate to 3.96 by 2020 is so flawed that the report is not even worth discussing. By 2020, the Pakistani economy would be actually starting to go towards the peak growth period (like what the Indian economy experienced from 1998 -2008). So the growth rate would be 7-9%, not reduced from today and down to 3.96%.

3) Another factor of a country's economy and heath is its FOREX and Gold Reserves, you think that over the next 5 years, there is over a $ 100 billion being pumped into the economy, and is expected to server a population larger than Pakistan, but the Gold reserves remain the same from today (64.48) till 2050??? Yea, this report's not worth discussions. Its good up till Q3 of this year. Beyond that, it's crap.

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## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> Hi - Yes, this report has 0 basis or use beyond Q3/2015. Even for the next item, which if 2020, this is useless. For one, how do you know that an economy will grow or shrink by X degree without taking into account the things happening inside an economy, as well as things happening in the external world, posing either a beneficial environment for growth or posting a threat like a war, earth quakes, etc, etc.
> 
> This is just a forecast. Not a fact based prediction, in fact, there is nothing fact based beyond Q3/2015 in it. Let's take a few items and analyze those for example:
> 
> 1) GDP growth rate. Today it is around 4.14, I can agree with that. But in 2020, 2030 and 2050...its foretasted to be at 3.96. Will you buy that? That someone just made a prediction of a constant GDP growth rate for over 3 decades to be the SAME? Makes no common sense.
> 
> Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.
> 
> 2) If today the growth rate is 4.14, BEFORE a massive $ 46 billion is pumped into the Pakistani economy, and then considering associated expansion of trade to 300 millions estimated users in China through the economic corridor (and add probably 20-40 million more people / trade beneficiaries from the Central Russian states), don't you think the growth will significantly increase beyond what it is today (4.14)?? Common sense says it will increase significantly.
> 
> But, the report actually decreases the Growth Rate down to 3.96% in 2020, when there would be four times the amount of economic activity going on by that time? That makes no sense. The actual growth rate by 2020 would be around 7-8% per year as Pakistan would've doubled up the consumer base through trade to China through Gawader, WITHOUT having to double up her own population (as the massive 300 million consumers of your ports are Chinese citizens)?
> 
> So Pakistan will be passing through products and services bi-directional to accommodate 300 million consumers, but without having a burden to open up schools, hospitals, building roads or Hydro dams for even ONE of these 300 million Chinese consumers as they are Chinese citizens and are a responsibility of their own nation.....imagine the extra revenue it would generate and the economic throughput this one huge project would bring to manufacturing, and transportation, new cities would be developed around the trade route, new hospitals, airports, hotels, water dams, parks, schools, universities, etc, etc. ALL sparking a huge economic uplift due to just one project. Then, there are other projects and growth plans in place for the entire system.....so reducing annual growth rate to 3.96 by 2020 is so flawed that the report is not even worth discussing. By 2020, the Pakistani economy would be actually starting to go towards the peak growth period (like what the Indian economy experienced from 1998 -2008). So the growth rate would be 7-9%, not reduced from today and down to 3.96%.
> 
> 3) Another factor of a country's economy and heath is its FOREX and Gold Reserves, you think that over the next 5 years, there is over a $ 100 billion being pumped into the economy, and is expected to server a population larger than Pakistan, but the Gold reserves remain the same from today (64.48) till 2050??? Yea, this report's not worth discussions. Its good up till Q3 of this year. Beyond that, it's crap.



@Viper0011. @Abingdonboy
Dear sir,

So how did you arrive at a 2 trillion dollar projection?

I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years. Your projections will need a sustained 19% growth every year for the next 12 years or am I wrong?

Which "Basic Economic principles" have led to you to add 1750 Billion dollars to a 250 billion dollar economy in 12 years?

Please do help me understand. Sincerely hoping you won't let us be devoid of your brilliant economic insight. 

thanks

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## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> @Viper0011. @Abingdonboy
> Dear sir,
> 
> So how did you arrive at a 2 trillion dollar projection?
> 
> I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years. Your projections will need a sustained 19% growth every year for the next 12 years or am I wrong?
> 
> Which "Basic Economic principles" have led to you to add 1750 Billion dollars to a 250 billion dollar economy in 12 years?
> 
> Please do help me understand. Sincerely hoping you won't let us be devoid of your brilliant economic insight.
> 
> thanks



You invited me to this thread asking (very politely for once) to analyze the report you posted. I did that. You've not told anything about the lengthy analysis I had to do for you. So how about we do one thing at a time?

You'll need to first tell me if you agreed with my analysis as to the report was utter crap beyond Q3 of 2015. Then I can answer your post above.

By the way, the dude you are tagging in, doesn't know jack about Strategy and Economic growth. I've dealt with him before. So on these specialized subjects, if you do need backup support, at least invite someone who has a clue about how economy related advisory and strategy is done so we can actually have a fact based discussion. But do answer my first paragraph / questions about my previous post.


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## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> You invited me to this thread asking (very politely for once) to analyze the report you posted. I did that. You've not told anything about the lengthy analysis I had to do for you. So how about we do one thing at a time?
> 
> You'll need to first tell me if you agreed with my analysis as to the report was utter crap beyond Q3 of 2015. Then I can answer your post above.
> 
> By the way, the dude you are tagging in, doesn't know jack about Strategy and Economic growth. I've dealt with him before. So on these specialized subjects, if you do need backup support, at least invite someone who has a clue about how economy related advisory and strategy is done so we can actually have a fact based discussion. But do answer my first paragraph / questions about my previous post.


dear sir,

I am not an expert in principals of economics as your esteemed self. We are just here to learn from your reputed intellect.

As far as agreement to your previous post, lets assume I do, what then, will you provide us the privilege of being privy to this miraculous influx of 1750 Billion dollars over 12 years, 145.83 average Billion influx in the economy sustained for 12 years.

@Viper0011. Please read post 43, and kindly reply.

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## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> dear sir,
> 
> I am not an expert in principals of economics as your esteemed self. We are just here to learn from your reputed intellect.
> 
> *As far as agreement to your previous post, lets assume I do,* what then, will you provide us the privilege of being privy to this miraculous influx of 1750 Billion dollars over 12 years, 145.83 average Billion influx in the economy sustained for 12 years.
> 
> @Viper0011. Please read post 43, and kindly reply.



We are debating......there is no "let's assume I do" in here. Its a debate based on facts. If you are pretending to "agree" with me, then its a waste of my time to even respond. What I am looking for is, you read my position on the topic and tell me what's yours, I'd like to see what you think or can prove with facts if your standing if different. But let's assume doesn't work.....read my previous post and please respond.

The figures you are looking for, aren't miraculous. You think anyone in 1995 (just 20 years ago) thought India would become the 3rd largest economy on the planet???? 

The answer is a straight forward HELL NO!!! So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.


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## Icewolf

MilSpec said:


> (I came across this brilliant post on another thread post, but before I could reply, the thread disappeared, I hope you wont mind, if you could teach us some basic economics here)
> 
> 
> Dear sir,
> 
> As you seem to have unparalleled comprehension of basic economy, Please do elaborate the above post where you do state in 12 years pakistan's economy ill cross 2 Trillion dollars.
> 
> Please do provide further explanation about the economy -
> 
> I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years.
> 
> View attachment 231171
> 
> 
> 
> You are estimating that GDP of Pakistan will go from 250 billion to 2000 Billion in 12 years. That would translate into an approximate 19% growth rate for next 12 years on the GDP.
> View attachment 231172
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I do not have an economics degree, or have studied economics. I would be a great pleasure to understand the sound basic economics principle that we are unaware of used to make such brilliant projections.
> 
> regards




Obviously you don't understand difference between nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth.

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## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> We are debating......there is no "let's assume I do" in here. Its a debate based on facts. If you are pretending to "agree" with me, then its a waste of my time to even respond. What I am looking for is, you read my position on the topic and tell me what's yours, I'd like to see what you think or can prove with facts if your standing if different. But let's assume doesn't work.....read my previous post and please respond.
> 
> The figures you are looking for, aren't miraculous. You think anyone in 1995 (just 20 years ago) thought India would become the 3rd largest economy on the planet????
> 
> The answer is a straight forward HELL NO!!! So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.



Dear sir, 

OK... 

Let me categorically say that I agree with your projections. I am not claiming to be an economic expert, you seem to be lambasting people for lack of understanding of "basic economic principles", So I would love to understand the basic economic principle's you have used to derive the projections. 

I am hoping to see the actual growth rate projection across the 12 years as originally claimed which in the last post became a 10-20 years (which has a 100% margin in timeline stated - which is confusing) As a benefit of the doubt please do stick to 10, 12 or 20 years instead of vague timelines as we are dealing with specifics. 

Please now tell me, which country in the history of world has sustained 19% average growth rate over last 12 years. 



Viper0011. said:


> So apply the same logic and you'll see how 2 trillion can happen over the next 10-20 years, for a country with over 200 million population.



Also how many trillion dollars has the subject country added in the last 60 years? Your own words are "it's piece of cake for pakistan to cross to 2 trillion dollars in next 10-12 years" which your are back tracking to 10-20 years now.

For a 2 trillion dollar economy in 12 years, my basic calculations are as follows , are the following projections conistent with yours?






Can you please aslo post any projections by any economists which strengthen your numbers?









World Development Indicators-Google Public Data Explorer


Now previously you stated Pakistan adding 1750 Billion to their economy

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## DILPAK14

*thanksss*


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## MilSpec

@Viper0011. Still waiting on your revelations of the grand economic vision of adding 1750 billion dollars to pakistani economy in 12 years at 19% average growth rate to take it from 250 billion to 2 trillion?

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## Sky lord

Out of curiosity, what is pakistan going to export to the 300 million new Chinese consumers that they want to buy? China produces pretty much everything fairly cheaply, so where is the competitive advantage? What does Pak make cheaper or better than China?


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## 21 Dec 2012

MilSpec said:


> @Viper0011. Still waiting on your revelations of the grand economic vision of adding 1750 billion dollars to pakistani economy in 12 years at 19% average growth rate to take it from 250 billion to 2 trillion?


Hey wait a minute. At some places this guy claims that you cannot make any prediction about future economic growth and at others he claim that Pakistan will defy all known bull ceilings sustaining so far unseen levels of growth. WTF


Viper0011. said:


> is the fact that NO ONE can forecast 2016 accurately when 2015 isn't even over yet, even HALF of 2015 isn't over yet.





Viper0011. said:


> Do you think market predictions like these, done for the US market back in the 90's or 2000's, every thought or predicted an economic melt down through a financial crises starting in 2008? NO ONE could've predicted that in the 90's or even till 2006-07. Similarly, this forecast is utter crap. Not sure who did it.

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## MilSpec

21 Dec 2012 said:


> Hey wait a minute. At some places this guy claims that you cannot make any prediction about future economic growth and at others he claim that Pakistan will defy all known bull ceilings sustaining so far unseen levels of growth. WTF


Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.

I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.

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## 21 Dec 2012

MilSpec said:


> Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.
> 
> I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.


Best of Luck lol

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## Dash

MilSpec said:


> Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.
> 
> I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.



I dont want to know on what context it was written as its to bright to my eyes from what you r saying but I must say that 19% will crash many economic minds and new laws need to be re written..


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## Bilal.

MilSpec said:


> Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.
> 
> I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.



While I don't fully understand these calculations either. But just as an example take your economy, it grew from $477 billion to $1708 billion between 2000 and 2010, adding $1200 billion plus in GDP size, without growing at double digit rate. I think it has something to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth.

Having said that, Pakistan becoming $2 trillion GDP in the next 12 years is not in the realm of possibility. If we do really good we might become a trillion plus economy though.

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## MilSpec

Bilal. said:


> While I don't fully understand these calculations either. But just as an example take your economy, it grew from $477 billion to $1708 billion between 2000 and 2010, adding $1200 billion plus in GDP size, without growing at double digit rate. I think it has something to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth.
> 
> Having said that, Pakistan becoming $2 trillion GDP in the next 12 years is not in the realm of possibility. If we do really good we might become a trillion plus economy though.


I am not an economist either, I am just responding to a 2 trillion dollar prediction by @Viper0011. in 12 years, hoping to understand how he has come to the calculations. On another thread he was lambasting some other member about basic economic principles, I am just trying to understand those "basic economic principles" that he was referring to which puts pakistani economy at 2 trillion dollars.


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## Last Samuri

CANT COMPARE indian economic model with Pakistan.

To completely different scenarios.

The Indians have advantages that Pakistanis just do not possess.

1. Poltically Pakistan struggles with FDI china alone can not carry you to $1 trillion
2. Pakistan lack the billionaires that drive employment technology investment . india china usa full of billionaires
3. India produces ten x the nos of graduates in engineering and science each year
4. india,s growth is internal driven by 300 million middle class Indians no such middle class exists in Pakistan
5. india is a trading nation massive coastlines merchant navy and india has always been a great trading culture even 500 years ago.
6. A nation run by generals is more likely to be a North Korea rather than south korea. . You cant have your cake and eat it. ...
Your democratic leaders are answerable to the generals.

You will never be a economic power

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## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> Do not question the brilliant member's views presented here.... Just bask in the glorious influx of the hard knowledge he will lay down on ignorant uneducated folks like us.
> 
> I am hoping to learn the secret of 19% sustained average growth rate for 12 years... don't ruin it for me.



Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???

Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.

To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.

On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousins to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.



Last Samuri said:


> *CANT COMPARE indian economic model with Pakistan.
> You will never be a economic power*



1) No one is comparing Indian economy to Pakistan. Even a ten year old child reading news would know that. But that doesn't mean India and Pakistan won't compete for business. Watch how the two labor markets will compete for educated labor related business in the few years. But that doesn't mean Pakistan's economy will be a comparison, its a stupid thing to even write. A 5 times more populated country will ALWAYS have a much bigger economy.

2) Pakistan is going to be in the top 15 and then in the top 10 economic powers. You, your cousins blowing bombs in Pakistan or training Baluchis and Al-Qada for terrorism inside Pakistan, can't stop it. You'll just have to watch and feel the pain in your rear.
And, India will NEVER be a super power. At best, it'll be a soup-o-powa !!

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## Icewolf

MilSpec said:


> Dear sir,
> 
> OK...
> 
> Let me categorically say that I agree with your projections. I am not claiming to be an economic expert, you seem to be lambasting people for lack of understanding of "basic economic principles", So I would love to understand the basic economic principle's you have used to derive the projections.
> 
> I am hoping to see the actual growth rate projection across the 12 years as originally claimed which in the last post became a 10-20 years (which has a 100% margin in timeline stated - which is confusing) As a benefit of the doubt please do stick to 10, 12 or 20 years instead of vague timelines as we are dealing with specifics.
> 
> Please now tell me, which country in the history of world has sustained 19% average growth rate over last 12 years.
> 
> 
> 
> Also how many trillion dollars has the subject country added in the last 60 years? Your own words are "it's piece of cake for pakistan to cross to 2 trillion dollars in next 10-12 years" which your are back tracking to 10-20 years now.
> 
> For a 2 trillion dollar economy in 12 years, my basic calculations are as follows , are the following projections conistent with yours?
> View attachment 231558
> 
> 
> Can you please aslo post any projections by any economists which strengthen your numbers?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 231553





MilSpec said:


> World Development Indicators-Google Public Data Explorer
> 
> 
> Now previously you stated Pakistan adding 1750 Billion to their economy






Hey MilSpec, please explain this then

India GDP was 476.6 billion dollars in the year 2000 yet it became 1.7 trillion in 2010

I calculated it by GDP growth rate through those ten years and India's GDP should have only been 983 billion dollars by 2010.

Explain this oh great mathematician. You have simply no idea of how fast an economy grows and what is difference between nominal and real GDP growth

2000

476 3.80%

2001

498.848 4.80%

2002

517.804224 3.80%

2003

558.7107577 7.90%

2004

602.8489076 7.90%

2005

658.913856 9.30%

2006

720.1928446 9.30%

2007

790.7717433 9.80%

2008

821.6118413 3.90%

2009

891.4488478 8.50%

2010

983.2680792 10.30%






I did the same for China as well. China's GDP was 5.931 trillion in 2010. Yet its 3.2 trillion when actually calculating it.. GASP!! must be a conspiracy right? 


2000

1.198 8.40%

2001

1.297434 8.30%

2002

1.415500494 9.10%

2003

1.557050543 10%

2004

1.714312648 10.10%

2005

1.908029978 11.30%

2006

2.150349785 12.70%

2007

2.455699454 14.20%

2008

2.691446602 9.60%

2009

2.939059689 9.20%

2010

3.244721897 10.40%



Viper0011. said:


> Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???
> 
> Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.
> 
> To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.
> 
> On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousins to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.
> 
> 
> 
> 1) No one is comparing Indian economy to Pakistan. Even a ten year old child reading news would know that. But that doesn't mean India and Pakistan won't compete for business. Watch how the two labor markets will compete for educated labor related business in the few years. But that doesn't mean Pakistan's economy will be a comparison, its a stupid thing to even write. A 5 times more populated country will ALWAYS have a much bigger economy.
> 
> 2) Pakistan is going to be in the top 15 and then in the top 10 economic powers. You, your cousins blowing bombs in Pakistan or training Baluchis and Al-Qada for terrorism inside Pakistan, can't stop it. You'll just have to watch and feel the pain in your rear.
> And, India will NEVER be a super power. At best, it'll be a soup-o-powa !!




Don't worry about that indian, he really doesn't know what he's talking about, he's made that quite clear. Vedic math is the only class he took in tertiary

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## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> Hey look, you went to sleep for a few days, then talked to a few buddies and came back from some research center in India with your cousins all together as one team. Great national team work. Is Modi a part of your team too???
> 
> Just like you read my many posts that you and your cousins are referring to, AND the initial post on that "forecast report" you posted, that showed Pakistan's economy actually DECLINING over the years (LOL), I am allowed to make predictions too. So just like everything else, if Indians do something, its coming from the Wisdom you guys had 6000 years ago from the "Vedic" times where your ancestors drove Ferraris which flew inter galaxy. But if an American, Chinese, Taiwanese or a Russian guy writes a prediction not meeting your national and personal agenda, that's always a question mark.
> 
> To sum it up, you are freely allowed to call my prediction a fukked up forecast and a response to a fukked up crappy forecast you posted. How's that??? to the world of forecasts.
> 
> On the other hand, I'd suggest to watch the next 12-18 years. Pakistani economy might surprise you big times . Just like anyone inside and outside of India, never thought you'd be in top 10 economies just 20 years ago, you wouldn't believe Pakistan could grow as much too, to be in the top 10 economies in the next 20 years. But its highly possible if they do everything right. Again, these things only time will tell. You waited 20 years for India to be where it is today. How about you do the SAME for Pakistan and we discuss this after it has the time I am forecasting to do what it needs to. If its not there in 20 years, my forecast was wrong. If it does get there, my forecast was right. End of the story and the topic. Tell your cousin to all go to Taj mahal and chill out.



Dear sir, 
I did not post any forecast, just pointed you to the one posted by another member and asked your opinion on it. 

If you do look a the time stamp on post #43 you would realize, I had inquire about your fascinating predictions last week. 

I am not sure why you are blaberring like a mad man about cousins, modi, vedic ferrari, russian, taiwanese, tajmahal and other BS. 

Your words were the following:
"If you can't comprehend *basics of strategy and economy*, you should not write back spiting stupidity. You can write down my words today and you'll feel butt pain *in the next 10-12 years when Pakistani economy crosses 2 trillion. Which I think is a piece of cake as long as the country's political system works*, democracy stays and its leaders continue to do what they are doing now."

All I asked was how do you estimate this 2 trillion dollars and you went the deep end.... If you can't validate your views on any logic then you are more than welcome to say it's your wishful thinking. No harm in that. But if you get sanctimonious on issues that you can barely comprehend, be ready to be kicked in the teeth as always. 

regards.

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## MilSpec

Icewolf said:


> Hey MilSpec, please explain this then
> 
> India GDP was 476.6 billion dollars in the year 2000 yet it became 1.7 trillion in 2010
> 
> I calculated it by GDP growth rate through those ten years and India's GDP should have only been 983 billion dollars by 2010.
> 
> Explain this oh great mathematician. You have simply no idea of how fast an economy grows and what is difference between nominal and real GDP growth
> 
> 2000
> 
> 476 3.80%
> 
> 2001
> 
> 498.848 4.80%
> 
> 2002
> 
> 517.804224 3.80%
> 
> 2003
> 
> 558.7107577 7.90%
> 
> 2004
> 
> 602.8489076 7.90%
> 
> 2005
> 
> 658.913856 9.30%
> 
> 2006
> 
> 720.1928446 9.30%
> 
> 2007
> 
> 790.7717433 9.80%
> 
> 2008
> 
> 821.6118413 3.90%
> 
> 2009
> 
> 891.4488478 8.50%
> 
> 2010
> 
> 983.2680792 10.30%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I did the same for China as well. China's GDP was 5.931 trillion in 2010. Yet its 3.2 trillion when actually calculating it.. GASP!! must be a conspiracy right?
> 
> 
> 2000
> 
> 1.198 8.40%
> 
> 2001
> 
> 1.297434 8.30%
> 
> 2002
> 
> 1.415500494 9.10%
> 
> 2003
> 
> 1.557050543 10%
> 
> 2004
> 
> 1.714312648 10.10%
> 
> 2005
> 
> 1.908029978 11.30%
> 
> 2006
> 
> 2.150349785 12.70%
> 
> 2007
> 
> 2.455699454 14.20%
> 
> 2008
> 
> 2.691446602 9.60%
> 
> 2009
> 
> 2.939059689 9.20%
> 
> 2010
> 
> 3.244721897 10.40%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Don't worry about that indian, he really doesn't know what he's talking about, he's made that quite clear. Vedic math is the only class he took in tertiary



Did I make any forecasts?

The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist, and thus I don't make any GDP predictions. 

If you want to take a crack at it, feel free to show me how pakistan will become a 2 trillion dollars in 12 years.

As far as my math skills are concerned, dear sir, rest assured the are ample enough to carry a discussion.

thanks



Viper0011. said:


> I REALLY want to own a Vedic Ferrari. I am sure, as the world has become less educated and technologically advance compared to the Vedic times, I won't be able to charge its batteries, or learn to manage its super sophisticated controls back from the Vedic times!!! But hey, I'd at least have it. What an honor!



I am not sure, why are you getting all defesive on a simple question.
You are saying pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years to it's economy, All I am asking is how?
that's it.
You were lambasting some other member about basic economics, I thought you would explain this estimate in basic economics so layman like me can understand.


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## Icewolf

MilSpec said:


> Did I make any forecasts?
> 
> The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist.
> 
> If you want to take a crack at it, feel free to show me how pakistan will become a 2 trillion dollars in 12 years.
> 
> As far as my math skills are concerned, dear sir, rest assured the are ample enough to carry a discussion.
> 
> thanks




As @Bilal. said, it has "to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth."

You can't simply put percentages and a GDP number in a flow chart and claim that is what it will be in 20 years.

Indias GDP was off almost 700 billion due to that and China's was off 2.7 trillion dollars.


----------



## MilSpec

Icewolf said:


> As @Bilal. said, it has "to do with expansion of money supply, exchange rate, real GDP growth and so forth."
> 
> You can't simply put percentages and a GDP number in a flow chart and claim that is what it will be in 20 years.
> 
> Indias GDP was off almost 700 billion due to that and China's was off 2.7 trillion dollars.


Again, if you could focus on the query... I haven't claimed anything... it your dear @Viper0011. who is doing all the claiming.

Claim> Pakistan Economy = 2 trillion in 12 year

Question> Please explain how?

that's it, I am not inquiring about India, china, sweeden or Sudan. My simple query is if you or the other gentleman are standing behind the claim, please explain how.

If you are claiming some thing it should originate from some substance, right? You cannot just say just becuase UK grew at a certain rate and it's currency rate followed certain trends... then those projections must be true for Afghanistan or bolivia.

The question is quite simple? just present the rationale behind the claim that you are standing.


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## Icewolf

MilSpec said:


> Again, if you could focus on the query... I haven't claimed anything... it your dear @Viper0011. who is doing all the claiming.
> 
> Claim> Pakistan Economy = 2 trillion in 12 year
> 
> Question> Please explain how?
> 
> that's it, I am not inquiring about India, china, sweeden or Sudan. My simple query is if you or the other gentleman are standing behind the claim, please explain how.
> 
> If you are claiming some thing it should originate from some substance, right? You cannot just say just becuase UK grew at a certain rate and it's currency rate followed certain trends... then those projections must be true for Afghanistan or bolivia.
> 
> The question is quite simple? just present the rationale behind the claim that you are standing.



The simple answer to that is that we are expecting mega growth in Pakistan after the late 2010s because of load shedding ending, new Gwadar port, new CPEC, no terrorism, democratic engine, and all around better governance. Now I agree 2 trillion might or might no be a little off but the growth will be quite massive.


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## Menace2Society

Full power coverage will push growth to 6% alone.

Growth will come but how much. Need to work on FDI and forming strong manufacturing base to give economy best chance of growing at its peak.


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## MilSpec

Icewolf said:


> The simple answer to that is that we are expecting mega growth in Pakistan after the late 2010s because of load shedding ending, new Gwadar port, new CPEC, no terrorism, democratic engine, and all around better governance. Now I agree 2 trillion might or might no be a little off but the growth will be quite massive.


And I wouldn't question that, that is a fair estimate. 

But if you say that just because India had certain growth and thus Pakistan will be at 2 trillion in 12 years and that will be a piece of cake... I will question that... thats that.


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## Bilal.

MilSpec said:


> I am not an economist either, I am just responding to a 2 trillion dollar prediction by @Viper0011. in 12 years, hoping to understand how he has come to the calculations. On another thread he was lambasting some other member about basic economic principles, I am just trying to understand those "basic economic principles" that he was referring to which puts pakistani economy at 2 trillion dollars.



My reply was to explain that only real GDP growth rate is not and should not be taken as the sole factor in projecting the nominal GDP size of a country. Meaning 19% real gdp growth rate argument that you presented is not accurate or sound in it's logic.


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## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> Did I make any forecasts?
> 
> The esteemed member here says that pakistan will add 1750 billion dollars in 12 years, I am just asking how. I am not an economist, and thus I don't make any GDP predictions.
> 
> *I am not sure, why are you getting all defesive on a simple question.*.



You can play stupid somewhere else like I said. They weren't that sharp in the Vedic times and they aren't today either. So please, play this act somewhere else where people don't know your kind!

No one's getting defensive here, I am a believer in all offense, just like the US military. So you'll see that everywhere. As far as your comments above are concerned, if you go back to where it started, you had invited me to comment on a report you published that showed Pakistan's GDP declining over the years and that was their "forecast". Well, I gave you mine, whether I told you $ 1750 billion or 2000 Billion......its a forecast. Instead of stupid questioning it like a 14 year old child, how about you wait for all those years given in my forecast, and mention it. Just like your forecast never stated how a growing country's GDP would decline after a few years, my forecast doesn't have to tell you how the GDP will grow either. 15-18 years from now, come back and tell me where Pakistani economy is. Either my forecast is right, or I'd revise my forecast......that's how forecasts work. Ever see a weather channel? Try learning about forecast from there as starters and then get into bigger and more serious stuff like the economy!



MilSpec said:


> All I asked was how do you estimate this 2 trillion dollars and you went the deep end.... If you can't validate your views on any logic then you are more than welcome to say it's your wishful thinking. No harm in that. But if you get sanctimonious on issues that you can barely comprehend, be ready to be kicked in the teeth as always.



Its a forecast. Wait till 15-20 years and then come write these paragraph of yours. If its too difficult for you to understand, go read up on what a forecast is. You can continue to waste your Vedic wisdom from 6000 years ago or you can act like you live in 2015 and learn to wait for the years given in my forecast.


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## MilSpec

Bilal. said:


> My reply was to explain that only real GDP growth rate is not and should not be taken as the sole factor in projecting the nominal GDP size of a country. Meaning 19% real gdp growth rate argument that you presented is not accurate or sound in it's logic.


I said 19% sustained average growth rate, not real gdp growth rate.


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## de_xtr

Viper0011. said:


> I REALLY want to own a Vedic Ferrari. I am sure, as the world has become less educated and technologically advance compared to the Vedic times, I won't be able to charge its batteries, or learn to manage its super sophisticated controls back from the Vedic times!!! But hey, I'd at least have it. What an honor!



I have noticed that some Pakistanis tend to crack these Vedic jokes, as if it is a matter of some sort of achievement. Well, don't you think the joke is on you too ? Some of the root of the Vedas can be traced back to present day Pakistan.
Also, so far as education is concerned, India is doing far better than Pakistan on that front too. So what is this joke really about ?


----------



## Bilal.

MilSpec said:


> I said 19% sustained average growth rate, not real gdp growth rate.



If I am not mistaking, the growth that is reported annually is always real GDP growth rate. That's why you will see many countries increasing there nominal GDP size much more than the reported GDP growth rates.


----------



## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> You can play stupid somewhere else like I said. They weren't that sharp in the Vedic times and they aren't today either. So please, play this act somewhere else where people don't know your kind!



I don't understand your fascination with vedic times? but you can keep huffing and puffing about it. it's irrelevant to me. 




Viper0011. said:


> No one's getting defensive here, I am a believer in all offense, just like the US military. So you'll see that everywhere. As far as your comments above are concerned, if you go back to where it started, you had invited me to comment on a report you published that showed Pakistan's GDP declining over the years and that was their "forecast".


Wrong again.... 
check post #43 when I called out your prediction of 2 trillion dollars.... I did not present any forecasts, @Mr.Nair did....As far as the outlook's predictions for economic indicators are concerned they are mostly based on Holt, DE and parametric regression analysis prediction models unlike just hot gas in your case. 




Viper0011. said:


> Well, I gave you mine, whether I told you $ 1750 billion or 2000 Billion......its a forecast. Instead of stupid questioning it like a 14 year old child, how about you wait for all those years given in my forecast, and mention it. .


So you have zilch to back up your prediction... Just as I thought. 



Viper0011. said:


> Just like your forecast never stated how a growing country's GDP would decline after a few years, my forecast doesn't have to tell you how the GDP will grow either. 15-18 years from now, come back and tell me where Pakistani economy is. Either my forecast is right, or I'd revise my forecast......that's how forecasts work. Ever see a weather channel? Try learning about forecast from there as starters and then get into bigger and more serious stuff like the economy!



Haha, dude why do insist on making a fool out of yourself.... Even pakistani members here are laughing at your economic prediction. I am atleast not a poser like you who doesn't have a single clue of what he is talking about and gets owned on every thread... Thanks for the entertainment though




Viper0011. said:


> Its a forecast. Wait till 15-20 years and then come write these paragraph of yours. If its too difficult for you to understand, go read up on what a forecast is. You can continue to waste your Vedic wisdom from 6000 years ago or you can act like you live in 2015 and learn to wait for the years given in my forecast.



alright good sir , let see your wisdom, please show me a RA or an armax exercise to validate you model.


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## Bilal.

@MilSpec

Take turkey for example, they almost trebled their GDP between 2000-2010 but the official (real) GDP growth rate if taken to project their nominal GDP at the end would be no where near to what is required to reach that number.


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## de_xtr

Viper0011. said:


> You can play stupid somewhere else like I said. They weren't that sharp in the Vedic times and they aren't today either. So please, play this act somewhere else where people don't know your kind!
> 
> No one's getting defensive here, I am a believer in all offense, just like the US military. So you'll see that everywhere. As far as your comments above are concerned, if you go back to where it started, you had invited me to comment on a report you published that showed Pakistan's GDP declining over the years and that was their "forecast". Well, I gave you mine, whether I told you $ 1750 billion or 2000 Billion......its a forecast. Instead of stupid questioning it like a 14 year old child, *how about you wait for all those years given in my forecast, and mention it.* Just like your forecast never stated how a growing country's GDP would decline after a few years, my forecast doesn't have to tell you how the GDP will grow either. 1*5-18 years from now, come back and tell me where Pakistani economy is.* Either my forecast is right, or I'd revise my forecast......that's how forecasts work. Ever see a weather channel? Try learning about forecast from there as starters and then get into bigger and more serious stuff like the economy!
> 
> 
> 
> Its a forecast. *Wait till 15-20 years and then come write these paragraph of yours.* If its too difficult for you to understand, go read up on what a forecast is. You can continue to waste your Vedic wisdom from 6000 years ago or you can act like you live in 2015 and learn to wait for the years given in my forecast.



Just wow.. people will wait 15-18 years to verify whether some random guy off the internet was right about some prediction which seems very wild to begin with!! Are we supposed to take it on face value ? Well what is the face value ?

And why exactly 2 trillion ? why not 1.5 or 3 ? Laughable...


----------



## Viper0011.

MilSpec said:


> *I don't understand your fascination with vedic times? but you can keep huffing and puffing about it. it's irrelevant to me..*....



I love the Vedic times, I want one of those Ferraris from 6000 years ago which would fly inter galaxy. Where can I get one of those? Or a Cigar that would turn into an LED light after you smoke it, or the Mathematical formula which would tell people where the Vedic gold is hidden inside the earth. I want this stuff from the Vedic times. So cool!!!! I don't care if its irrelevant to you, but it sounds cool. A Vedic IPAD which had Windows 5000 on it also, and you can touch it and it would become a flying carpet. Man, you guys had it made and so technologically advanced 6000 years ago, then where the world is now. SO COOL!



de_xtr said:


> Just wow.. people will wait 15-18 years to verify whether some random guy off the internet was right about some prediction which seems very wild to begin with!! Are we supposed to take it on face value ? Well what is the face value ?
> 
> And why exactly 2 trillion ? why not 1.5 or 3 ? Laughable...



No don't laugh. I used some of the ancient mathematical formulas to calculate it. It was the same formula that your forefather used 6000 years ago to take that water run Ferrari to Mars and back three times on one glass of water, no gas or GPS needed. Apparently the mathematics was so advanced that it took the Ferrari running on Water, straight to some alien's house on Mars, where the driver of the Ferrari had dinner (Marsian food )? And the Ferrari took the voice command and brought the driver back to India from Mars in 30 minutes. So that formula told me the 2 Trillion is the number. Now can I have my Ferrari which would take me to Pluto for a visit every day???


----------



## MilSpec

Viper0011. said:


> No don't laugh. I used some of the Vedic mathematical formulas to calculate it. It was the same formula that your forefather used 6000 years ago in Vedic times to take that water run Ferrari to Mars and back three times on one glass of water, no gas or GPS needed. Apparently the mathematics was so advanced in Vedic times that it took the Ferrari running on Water, straight to some alien's house on Mars, where the driver of the Ferrari had dinner (Marsian food in Vedic times)? And the Ferrari took the voice command and brought the driver back to India from Mars in 30 minutes. So that formula told me the 2 Trillion is the number. Now can I have my Vedic Ferrari which would take me to Pluto for a visit every day???



I wish I could understand your frustration.... If you have to face continuous humiliation on an internet forum on pretty much any topic you try you hands on, everyday life must be quite horrid... 

Thus when run out of content to carry out discourse, indulge in ridiculous commentary, personal attacks, and off topic bs. 

but still there is an entertainment quotient in it for the readers.

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## de_xtr

Viper0011. said:


> No don't laugh. I used some of the Vedic mathematical formulas to calculate it. It was the same formula that your forefather used 6000 years ago in Vedic times to take that water run Ferrari to Mars and back three times on one glass of water, no gas or GPS needed. Apparently the mathematics was so advanced in Vedic times that it took the Ferrari running on Water, straight to some alien's house on Mars, where the driver of the Ferrari had dinner (Marsian food in Vedic times)? And the Ferrari took the voice command and brought the driver back to India from Mars in 30 minutes. So that formula told me the 2 Trillion is the number. Now can I have my Vedic Ferrari which would take me to Pluto for a visit every day???



Haha..dude you pretty much have it already..That's why you make stupid claims and then ask people to wait 15-18 years to check what you said is true. 
People will not do that for Amartya Sen or John Nash, who the f are you ? Only a total nutcase will say something like that.

And then you try to make fun of people you are arguing with, as if that is going to give you any edge. 
Usually one does that when he does not have any proper rebuttal or in popular terms, a 'loser'. 
This forum starts looking funny.


----------



## Hyperion

I bet he failed his high school economics........... it seems from his posts that the only thing he can elaborate upon are the great successes of the fearless leader Nawaj G!














MilSpec said:


> (I came across this brilliant post on another thread post, but before I could reply, the thread disappeared, I hope you wont mind, if you could teach us some basic economics here)
> 
> 
> Dear sir,
> 
> As you seem to have unparalleled comprehension of basic economy, Please do elaborate the above post where you do state in 12 years pakistan's economy ill cross 2 Trillion dollars.
> 
> Please do provide further explanation about the economy -
> 
> I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years.
> 
> View attachment 231171
> 
> 
> 
> You are estimating that GDP of Pakistan will go from 250 billion to 2000 Billion in 12 years. That would translate into an approximate 19% growth rate for next 12 years on the GDP.
> View attachment 231172
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I do not have an economics degree, or have studied economics. I would be a great pleasure to understand the sound basic economics principle that we are unaware of used to make such brilliant projections.
> 
> regards

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## MilSpec

Hyperion said:


> I bet he failed his high school economics........... it seems from his posts that the only thing he can elaborate upon are the great successes of the fearless leader Nawaj G!



It's Entertainment boss. 

Nothing brewing in defense these days, so this is the tp. 

anyways I am off to gym , you have fun

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## Hyperion

Have fun at the gym..... me off too! 



MilSpec said:


> It's Entertainment boss.
> 
> Nothing brewing in defense these days, so this is the tp.
> 
> anyways I am off to gym , you have fun


----------



## Viper0011.

de_xtr said:


> *Haha..dude you pretty much have it already..That's why you make stupid claims and then ask people to wait 15-18 years to check what you said is true. *
> .



I am making stupid claims and asking people to wait 15 years. You guys make fukking stupid claims and tell people to visit 6000 years ago in Vedic times when cars used to run out of water, and would fly or turn submarines when need be, staying submerged for years like snake goes under their hole for many months to sleep. You guys also had cell phones so advanced back 6000 years ago that you'd call your other Hindu friends visiting Pluto in their cars and it would be free service with ultimate reception. Now I can't beat these claims and utter crap called the Vedic times. So my claims only last for 15 years. I think that's pretty good compared to the Vedic time difference of 6000 year filled with utter bullcrap ever found on the planet!!!



Hyperion said:


> I bet he failed his high school economics........... it seems from his posts that the only thing he can elaborate upon are the great successes of the fearless leader Nawaj G



I bet you never took it even when your military dad was stealing Pakistani tax payers money, along with what we were giving you for the people of Pakistan. Instead, it went to the military of Pakistan back then and NOT all military, just some few selective corrupted generals!! How's uncle Mushy feeling now a days? Does he still want to come to US to give "lectures" in different schools? We can probably give him some more money if he's wasted everything else he stole from the public fund established by the US?


----------



## de_xtr

Viper0011. said:


> I am making stupid claims and asking people to wait 15 years. You guys make fukking stupid claims and tell people to visit 6000 years ago in Vedic times when cars used to run out of water, and would fly or turn submarines when need be, staying submerged for years like snake goes under their hole for many months to sleep. You guys also had cell phones so advanced back 6000 years ago that you'd call your other Hindu friends visiting Pluto in their cars and it would be free service with ultimate reception. Now I can't beat these claims and utter crap called the Vedic times. So my claims only last for 15 years. I think that's pretty good compared to the Vedic time difference of 6000 year filled with utter bullcrap ever found on the planet!!!



lol..where did you get all that ? During last night's conversation with your buddy in the psyche ward ? 

Also, tell me honestly, are most of the Pakistanis like you only ?

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## Hyperion

Watch me give him a coronary right here on PDF tomorrow.................. this may become a great case-study! 



de_xtr said:


> lol..where did you get all that ? During last night's conversation with your buddy in the psyche ward ?
> 
> Also, tell me honestly, are most of the Pakistanis like you only ?

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## Shahzad Akram

In Nawaz Govt Pakistan have improved a lot in every major sector


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## Last Samuri

These Will Be the World's 20 Largest Economies in 2030 - Bloomberg Business

Viper and the fellow Pakistanis

This a American link

I don't see Pakistan anywhere in this link of top 20 Economies in the world in 2030,.

of COURSE THE USA and THE ONLY SUPER POWER in the WORLD COULD BE WRONG.

BUT I DOUBT IT

I have looked at 4 other links

SORRY PAKISTANIS you guys are no where near $1 trillion in 2030.
*
By the way the Indians are sitting pretty in 3rd PLACE BY 2030 with a whopping $6 .5 trillion*

US? China? India? The 10 biggest economies in 2030 will be... - Business - News - The Independent
Heres another link.

Sorry no Pakistan in top 20.

Are you guys doing the usual trick

*Just inventing your own numbers as you go along *

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## Matrixx

Viper0011. said:


> I love the Vedic times, I want one of those Ferraris from 6000 years ago which would fly inter galaxy. Where can I get one of those? Or a Cigar that would turn into an LED light after you smoke it, or the Mathematical formula which would tell people where the Vedic gold is hidden inside the earth. I want this stuff from the Vedic times. So cool!!!! I don't care if its irrelevant to you, but it sounds cool. A Vedic IPAD which had Windows 5000 on it also, and you can touch it and it would become a flying carpet. Man, you guys had it made and so technologically advanced 6000 years ago, then where the world is now. SO COOL!
> 
> 
> 
> No don't laugh. I used some of the Vedic mathematical formulas to calculate it. It was the same formula that your forefather used 6000 years ago in Vedic times to take that water run Ferrari to Mars and back three times on one glass of water, no gas or GPS needed. Apparently the mathematics was so advanced in Vedic times that it took the Ferrari running on Water, straight to some alien's house on Mars, where the driver of the Ferrari had dinner (Marsian food in Vedic times)? And the Ferrari took the voice command and brought the driver back to India from Mars in 30 minutes. So that formula told me the 2 Trillion is the number. Now can I have my Vedic Ferrari which would take me to Pluto for a visit every day???


but I love Chinese copy paste technology more


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## Last Samuri

G20 GDP Projections 2009-2030-2050 - Country Rankings

Heres a 3rd Link.

Once again top 20 GDPs in 2030.

Same countrires 

no Pakistan any where in sight

I wont mention TOP 3 its getting boring

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## farhan_9909

This thread is not for discussion .thanks


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## Shahzad Akram

its really sad to know its mean Pakistan still have a long struggle to do -


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## ghazi52

.......Pakistan is too big to fail (google it)...it's been said and written time and time again. Growth with occur no matter what (hopefully) but the RATE at which we grow depends upon policies of the government.

We should be looking towards countries like Brazil and Indonesia...both countries have similar populations as us.

Indonesia (2013)
Population - 249,900,000
GDP - $868,300,000,000 ($868.3 billion)
GDP per capita - $3475
Growth Rate - 5.8%

Brazil (2013)
Population - 200,400,000
GDP - $2,246,000,000,000 ($2.246 trillion)
GDP per capita - $11,208
Growth Rate - 2.5%

Pakistan (2013)
Population - 182,000,000
GDP - 232,300,000,000 ($232.3 billion)
GDP per capita - $1275 
Growth Rate - 4.4%


Since 1947, Pakistan has consistently had a positive GDP growth rate. 

Lowest GDP growth rate = 0.5% (1971)
Highest GDP growth rate = 11.4% (1970)

# of years Pakistan grew >5% since 1961 = 26 years (out of 52 years)....

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## Last Samuri

Brazil has the same population as Pakistan BUT is 10 times richer in GDP and per capita.

let me say again TEN TIMES THE SIZE OF PAKISTAN.

Indonesia is 4 times richer

Pakistan in population and GDP is far closer to Bangladesh than the heavey weights Indonesia & brazil who are both very successful nations.

they are great role models but for pakistan to grow like them would take a miracle


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## coffee_cup

MilSpec said:


> I wish I could understand your frustration.... If you have to face continuous humiliation on an internet forum on pretty much any topic you try you hands on, everyday life must be quite horrid...
> 
> Thus when run out of content to carry out discourse, indulge in ridiculous commentary, personal attacks, and off topic bs.
> 
> but still there is an entertainment quotient in it for the readers.



Hey dude, can you stop trolling for some time now?

I wonder who has made you TTA on a Pakistani forum?!?

The topic is about Pakistan Economic growth rate and all I see is Indians spamming this otherwise very nice thread with their useless posts.

Whether our economy will be 2 trillion or not in 12 years time is none of your concern. Just like it is none of our concern whether you'll be a super power in 2020 and have white servants.

There are countless other threads for trolling. Just for once, let Pakistanis discuss something without derailing the threads. That will be really appreciated.



Last Samuri said:


> Brazil has the same population as Pakistan BUT is 10 times richer in GDP and per capita.
> 
> let me say again TEN TIMES THE SIZE OF PAKISTAN.
> 
> Indonesia is 4 times richer
> 
> Pakistan in population and GDP is far closer to Bangladesh than the heavey weights Indonesia & brazil who are both very successful nations.
> 
> they are great role models but for pakistan to grow like them would take a miracle



China has same population as India can you type the GDP of both countries as of now?

I am just curioius. Will be interesting to read.


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## IR-TR

Last Samuri said:


> Brazil has the same population as Pakistan BUT is 10 times richer in GDP and per capita.
> 
> let me say again TEN TIMES THE SIZE OF PAKISTAN.
> 
> Indonesia is 4 times richer
> 
> Pakistan in population and GDP is far closer to Bangladesh than the heavey weights Indonesia & brazil who are both very successful nations.
> 
> they are great role models but for pakistan to grow like them would take a miracle



Well, Brazil does happen to have huge oil reserves, and all kinds of other mineral resources. So that helps. And it's completely stable, aside from some gang bangers in Rio etc. Pakistan is different sadly. And it has little to no economic relations with it huge and booming neighbour India. Those two fact are holding pakistan back. Stability and normalization of relations with India. Aside from that, Pakistanis work very hard and could have a huge economy.


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## Last Samuri

Coffee cup Indian gdp today is 2.3 trillion dollars .

China is 11 trillion 

India is now the eighth largest gdp in the world. 

China is second 

India is now growing faster than China.


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## Gauss

As many Pakistanis want to see an economic progress take place in Pakistan similar to that enjoyed by east asian countries during last fifty years. I would like to inform then that Pakistan cannot progress at a sustained high rate until it adopts the principles of _laissez faire _system. What is that system can be googled and reading a basic economic text can help understanding how only this system causes high growth.


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## IR-TR

Gauss said:


> As many Pakistanis want to see an economic progress take place in Pakistan similar to that enjoyed by east asian countries during last fifty years. I would like to inform then that Pakistan cannot progress at a sustained high rate until it adopts the principles of _laissez faire _system. What is that system can be googled and reading a basic economic text can help understanding how only this system causes high growth.



Not a single Asian economy has laissez faire, unless you count Singapore probably, not even then. Pakistan has three problems for why it's economy is a basket case, and none other (aside from economic policies etc). 1. Energy shortage, can't invest in a country that can't fulfill it's energy needs. 2. Internal security, although that's not a gigantic problem. Who says WAZIRISTAN needs an economic boom, they'll fall in line when the rest of Pakistan is growing. 3. No trade ties with it's booming 1.3 billion neighbour.


So yeah, fix those three, and Pakistan will be booming like crazy.


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## black-hawk_101

So, how much work is left to complete this corridor?


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## ice_man

Last Samuri said:


> Coffee cup Indian gdp today is 2.3 trillion dollars .
> 
> China is 11 trillion
> 
> India is now the eighth largest gdp in the world.
> 
> China is second
> 
> India is now growing faster than China.



now cupcake 

apply your logic to Brazil current growth rate and Pakistan growth rate. 

Brazilian economy falls into recession with 1.9% contraction in second quarter

Forecast for 2015 Brazilian GDP growth falls to zero

GDP growth (annual %) | Data | Table

World Bank projects: Pakistan’s economic growth at 4.4% - The Express Tribune


now little boy run along and stop trying to stroke your ego.


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## Abingdonboy

MilSpec said:


> @Viper0011. @Abingdonboy
> Dear sir,
> 
> So how did you arrive at a 2 trillion dollar projection?
> 
> I am quite interested to know how your prophecy came about, especially when pakistan was at $51 Billion in 1993 and added 200 Billion 21 years, you seem to estimate same country adding 1750 Billion Dollars in 12 years. Your projections will need a sustained 19% growth every year for the next 12 years or am I wrong?
> 
> Which "Basic Economic principles" have led to you to add 1750 Billion dollars to a 250 billion dollar economy in 12 years?
> 
> Please do help me understand. Sincerely hoping you won't let us be devoid of your brilliant economic insight.
> 
> thanks


Unfortunately I didn't get the notification for this mention at the time, so I missed out on a good chuckle @MilSpec sir.



What @Viper0011. is saying is beyond absurd. Pakistan (by the IMF's own figures) won't become a trillion dollar economy before 2040. Even if you want to dispute this figure and look at more optimistic models- consider a growth rate of 6% over a sustained period (that Pakistan isn't even achieving today nor is it projected to meet in the immediate future) it will take at least a decade to double their GDP from $200BN to $400BN so around 2024/5 and from there $800BN by 2034/5 and then, $1 Trillion by 2037-40.

It is very simply mathematics. 

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


To exceed even this pretty optimistic projection Pakistan would have to grow at over 8-9% for at least a decade.

How Pakistan becomes a $2 Trillion USD economy within 12 years is beyond me and I am more than confident in saying it simply will not happen. I mean, I have seen arguments of of mighty CPEC being used as the saviour of Pakistan's economy to extravagant degrees but this is totally insane.


Many of us will be dead by the time Pakistan becomes a $2 trillion USD economy.


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## RAMPAGE

Abingdonboy said:


> Unfortunately I didn't get the notification for this mention at the time, so I missed out on a good chuckle @MilSpec sir.
> 
> 
> 
> What @Viper0011. is saying is beyond absurd. Pakistan (by the IMF's own figures) won't become a trillion dollar economy before 2040. Even if you want to dispute this figure and look at more optimistic models- consider a growth rate of 6% over a sustained period (that Pakistan isn't even achieving today nor is it projected to meet in the immediate future) it will take at least a decade to double their GDP from $200BN to $400BN so around 2024/5 and from there $800BN by 2034/5 and then, $1 Trillion by 2037-40.
> 
> It is very simply mathematics.
> 
> List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> 
> To exceed even this pretty optimistic projection Pakistan would have to grow at over 8-9% for at least a decade.
> 
> How Pakistan becomes a $2 Trillion USD economy within 12 years is beyond me and I am more than confident in saying it simply will not happen. I mean, I have seen arguments of of mighty CPEC being used as the saviour of Pakistan's economy to extravagant degrees but this is totally insane.
> 
> 
> Many of us will be dead by the time Pakistan becomes a $2 trillion USD economy.


Bharti ignorance at it again!

Ever heard of inflation? Simple mathematics, My ***!


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## Abingdonboy

RAMPAGE said:


> Bharti ignorance at it again!
> 
> Ever heard of inflation? Simple mathematics, My ***!


Tell that to the IMF. So inflation is going to quadruple your economy by 2027(from what it will be- around $500BN to $2TN)? Cool story....


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## RAMPAGE

Abingdonboy said:


> Tell that to the IMF. So inflation is going to quadruple your economy by 2027(from what it will be- around $500BN to $2TN)? Cool story....


One does not forecast beyond 3 years, as a rule. Kid, Go learn a thing or two about economics before posting about something you dont know jack about.


And do not quote me again. I do not wish to educate your ignorant arse any further.


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## Abingdonboy

RAMPAGE said:


> One does not forecast beyond 3 years, as a rule. Kid, Go learn a thing or two about economics before posting about something you dont know jack about.


So the *IMF* are a bunch of amateurs when it comes to economics esteemed sir? It is perfectly possible to conduct trend analysis with the amount of historical data one has available on Pakistan's (and the world's) economy and to extract a viable (within a margin of error) prediction from that.

Either way, I am not saying the IMF's forecast is gospel BUT that anyone claiming Pakistan is going to touch $2 Trillion USD in nominal GDP before *2045* is absolutely deluded- forget about within TWELVE years. Do you honestly think that Pakistan is going to add almost* $1.8TN* to its GDP by *2027*? I mean REALLY???

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## RAMPAGE

lavenge lavenge said:


> Pakistani móronity at it again!
> 
> GDP growth in $ has component of Dollar inflation, not Rupee inflation.


So?



Abingdonboy said:


> So the *IMF* are a bunch of amateurs when it comes to economics esteemed sir? It is perfectly possible to conduct trend analysis with the amount of historical data one has available on Pakistan's (and the world's) economy and to extract a viable (within a margin of error) prediction from that.
> 
> Either way, I am not saying the IMF's forecast is gospel BUT that anyone claiming Pakistan is going to touch $2 Trillion USD in nominal GDP before *2045* is absolutely deluded- forget about within TWELVE years. Do you honestly think that Pakistan is going to add almost* $1.8TN* to its GDP by *2027*? I mean REALLY???


No it is not. Not for such a long period. Why dont you provide the link for this IMF's forecast?

I never claimed any such thing.

@Abingdonboy

I have given you one last chance. If your cannot back your claim, don't reply.


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## Abingdonboy

RAMPAGE said:


> I have given you one last chance. If your cannot back your claim, don't reply.


What claim? That Pakistan won't be a $2TN USD economy by 2027?


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## Last Samuri

In. This world of Pakistan defense forum. Every thing is possible. 

Gdp doubles in three years.
Paf pilots ate the best in the world. 
Pakistan buys f35 
Pakistan builds nuclear subs.

This is the fictional world of the pdf fan boys. 

Just smile and wink

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## farhan_9909

Abingdonboy said:


> What claim? That Pakistan won't be a $2TN USD economy by 2027?



Listen kid and explain me this

Indian GDP witness gross increase on average of more than 15% between 2003-2007 and almost 12% between 2008-2012 while the growth rate on average was only 7-8% or even less.

Similarly as per the most latest imf report,Pakistan GDP gross increase was more than 8% despite the growth rate of only 4%.

No why is it so?

NOTEon't ask me for a source,find it on your own otherwise shut up

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## stalintom

It is good for the readers to keep like this news


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## farhan_9909

South Asia


WB projects 5.5% growth rate for Pakistan this year.

Most latest report

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## Bilal.

farhan_9909 said:


> Listen kid and explain me this
> 
> Indian GDP witness gross increase on average of more than 15% between 2003-2007 and almost 12% between 2008-2012 while the growth rate on average was only 7-8% or even less.
> 
> Similarly as per the most latest imf report,Pakistan GDP gross increase was more than 8% despite the growth rate of only 4%.
> 
> No why is it so?
> 
> NOTEon't ask me for a source,find it on your own otherwise shut up



They are mixing real and nominal GDP growth


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## farhan_9909

Bilal. said:


> They are mixing real and nominal GDP growth



The imf and wb projections for Pakistan are always very different.dont know why


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## ni8mare

farhan_9909 said:


> The imf and wb projections for Pakistan are always very different.dont know why


I find india one not right for 2015......though its forcasted


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## Nike

Bilal. said:


> @MilSpec
> 
> Take turkey for example, they almost trebled their GDP between 2000-2010 but the official (real) GDP growth rate if taken to project their nominal GDP at the end would be no where near to what is required to reach that number.



Lira is kind of "unstable" currency in the world, Rupiah too. Sometimes their Government need to devalued the currency against US Dollar to make the Country industry is more competitive in export market and tourism, and then in several year after that, the currency regained their strength against Dollar, and the GDP in Dollar nominated terms is looking whooping, in which actually not as the real GDP growth is usually being measured by the Government in the Country using their own currency.


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## MystryMan

*Will Pakistan's economy survive the maturity of $50bn in debt this year?*

Despite improvement in the country's security situation and the economy growing at an eight-year high, Pakistan risks default as 42 percent of its foreign debt, around $50 billion, is due in 2016, reports bloomberg.

Around $30 billion is due between July and September, of which $8.3 billion will need to be in foreign currency, depleting 40pc of the nation’s $21 billion in foreign-exchange holdings. But a major part of the debt due is in local currency, which leaves the government with room to introduce more short-term instruments to leverage its current liabilities.

“Pakistan’s high level of public debt, with a large portion financed through short-term instruments, does make the sovereign’s ability to meet their financing needs more sensitive to market conditions,” Mervyn Tang, lead analyst for Pakistan at Fitch Ratings Ltd., told Bloomberg.

In 2013, a $6.6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was used to make payments for previous outstanding loans and avoid a Greece-like crisis. Since then, the projected debt due by end-2016 has grown by 79pc.

At Rs13 trillion ($124 billion), 77 pc of the budget is already allocated for loan repayments this year.

A concurrent challenge is meeting IMF demands to privatise state-owned concerns, as witnessed by the strike at Pakistan International Airlines, which ended only last week.

November 2015 saw new taxes worth Rs40 billion to meet the fiscal deficit.

In a Feb 1 statement, the Finance Ministry emphasised that Pakistan is committed to successfully implementing its IMF macroeconomic stability program, while the IMF is confident; mission chief Harald Finger said there is a “quite good” chance of implementing the guidelines provided.

Despite the grim outlook, experts are optimistic. According to Fitch’s Tang, Pakistan’s external liabilities are “relatively modest,” foreign-currency reserves have risen, the IMF is ready to help meet maturing loans and Chinese investment in an economic corridor is on its way.

“Improving growth prospects, lower inflation and smaller budget deficit should help to underpin investor confidence, particularly the domestic investor base,” Tang said.

Other risks include further capital flight and currency outflows, as well as devaluation of the rupee and fluctuations in the exchange rate. According to the IMF, the rupee is already overvalued at the current rate by as much as 20pc.

Mustafa Pasha, head of investments at Lakson Investments Ltd, which manages $200 million of stocks and bonds, told Bloomberg investors should expect volatility in bonds and pressure on the rupee this year.

Although the decrease in oil prices has helped, the future remains unclear.

source: from dawn website

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## ghazi52

...............
Pakistan's exports







.......


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## farhan_9909

Growth rate Projection for this year devreased to 5% from original target of 5%: Dar

Next year 6.5%

http://www.dawn.com/news/1254839


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## ajpirzada

1. so the economic growth rate will increase to 7% but inflation remain flat at 6%? wow. what happened to demand pull inflation? i need to get rid of my macroecon books

2. and how come next year's growth rate will increase to 6.5%? An increase of 1.5% points? Only if manufacturing growth picks up (i hope it will due to improvement in energy) and negative trend in exports is reversed, we may be able to achieve close to 6% growth after accounting for CPEC investment.


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## farhan_9909

ajpirzada said:


> 1. so the economic growth rate will increase to 7% but inflation remain flat at 6%? wow. what happened to demand pull inflation? i need to get rid of my macroecon books
> 
> 2. and how come next year's growth rate will increase to 6.5%? An increase of 1.5% points? Only if manufacturing growth picks up (i hope it will due to improvement in energy) and negative trend in exports is reversed, we may be able to achieve close to 6% growth after accounting for CPEC investment.



We are not going to achieve above 6% for long time though this year growth rate will matter alot.Lets see if Dar indeed can cross the 5% mark and if does than by 2018 we may surpass 6%.

Currently IMF and WB project 4.5% for this year


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## Photon

farhan_9909 said:


> We are not going to achieve above 6% for long time though this year growth rate will matter alot.Lets see if Dar indeed can cross the 5% mark and if does than by 2018 we may surpass 6%.
> 
> Currently IMF and WB project 4.5% for this year



IMF predicts 4.5% in 2016 and just 4.7% in 2017.

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...omic-growth-for-pakistan-in-2016-4-7-in-2017/

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## farhan_9909

Photon said:


> IMF predicts 4.5% in 2016 and just 4.7% in 2017.
> 
> http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/201...omic-growth-for-pakistan-in-2016-4-7-in-2017/



Already Posted

Dar sahab last week said that he will achieve it beyond 5% for this year,with merely 3 weeks remaining,Lets wait what it turns out to be


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## Devil Soul

*Pakistan shares edge higher; rupee stronger, o/n rates flat*
By REUTERS
May 17, 2016


KARACHI: Pakistani stocks edged higher in volatile trade on Tuesday, led by a rise in global oil prices, dealers said.

The benchmark 100-share index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange closed up 0.03 percent, or 11.75 points, at 36,137.12.The index went up as much as 265 points intraday led by oil stocks as international oil prices hit a six-month high, said Hammad Aman, manager, equity sales at Topline Securities Pvt Ltd.

Oil traded at around $49 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by supply outages in Nigeria, Canada and other producers that are eroding a persistent glut.

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd gained 1.57 percent, while Pakistan Oilfields Ltd rose 0.38 percent.

The rupee ended at 104.66/104.72 against the dollar, compared with Monday´s close of 104.69/104.74Overnight rates in the money market were steady at 6.20 percent from the previous session. ($1 = 104.6500 Pakistani rupees)


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## proud_indian

Pakistan misses economic growth target

KHALEEQ KIANI — UPDATED ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO​ISLAMABAD: The country missed the economic growth target for the current financial year by a wide margin mainly because of widespread dismal performance by the agriculture sector. The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.7 per cent against the target of 5.5pc.

At a meeting on Friday of the national accounts committee comprising senior representatives from the four provinces and regions and technical experts, the performance of all economic sectors was added up that showed higher than targeted growth by the industrial sector. The services sector achieved its growth target of 5.7pc.

But the most worrying aspect of the year was a 0.19pc negative growth by agriculture as a whole against the target of 3.9pc.

Cotton output led the freefall in the agriculture sector, considered the backbone of the national economy, as it posted a negative growth of 27pc. The cotton output stood at 10.1 million bales against the target of 13.96m bales. Last year, its output stood at 13.9m bales with a 9.5pc growth.

The industrial sector, favoured by PML-N, booms as the agriculture sector suffers in the current financial year

As a result, cotton ginning declined by 21pc against the target of 5pc. Important crops output fell by 7.18pc against the target of 3.2pc, while other crops fell by 6.2pc against the target of 4.5pc.

Wheat production grew by a meager 0.61pc to 25.47 million tonnes.

The livestock sector grew by 3.63pc, but remained short of the 4.1pc target, while fisheries increased by 3.3pc, surpassing the 3pc target. Forestry was the only saving grace in the agriculture sector as it grew by 8.8pc against the target of 4pc.
On an overall basis, industry grew by 6.8pc against the target of 6.4pc. It was supported by the construction and electricity sectors — the linchpins of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government’s development focus.
Last year, industry had grown by 3.6pc.

The mining and quarrying sector grew by 6.8pc against the target of 6pc, but the overall manufacturing sector could not meet growth expectations. The manufacturing sector posted a growth of 5pc, but remained short of the 6.1pc target. It had grown by 3.2pc last year.

The most important sector in industrial domain — large scale manufacturing (LSM) — also could not meet its growth target of 6pc. It grew by 4.6pc. LSM had improved by only 2.4pc last year. Small and household manufacturing grew by 8.2pc against the target of 8.3pc.

The construction sector grew by 13.1pc as it went beyond the 8.5pc target, while electricity generation and gas distribution improved by 12.2pc against the target of 6pc.

The services sector could meet the target of 5.7pc, but this was mainly supported by an increase in the salary of government employees. This was evident from an 11.13pc growth in general government services against the target of 6pc.

Transport, storage and communication services grew by 4.1pc against the target of 6.1pc, while wholesale and retail trade improved by 4.57pc against the target of 5.5pc.

The finance and insurance sector exceeded the target of 6.5pc with a 7.1pc growth. Housing services stood at 3.99pc against the target of 4pc.

Likewise, other private services improved by 6.64pc against the target of 6.4pc.

Published in Dawn, May 21st, 2016

http://www.dawn.com/news/1259741/pakistan-misses-economic-growth-target​

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## farhan_9909

The Govt has failed on economic front

No more excuse

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## PatriotLover

farhan_9909 said:


> The Govt has failed on economic front
> 
> No more excuse



Growth was still more than IMF predictions by a 0.2%

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## farhan_9909

PatriotLover said:


> Growth was still more than IMF predictions by a 0.2%



0.2%?

PPP govt left with 3.7% growth rate and all this govt manage was to reach 4.7% in 3 long years.

Beyond 5% was necessary this year.

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## Dazzler

farhan_9909 said:


> Already Posted
> 
> Dar sahab last week said that he will achieve it beyond 5% for this year,with merely 3 weeks remaining,Lets wait what it turns out to be



Stop fooling yourself and others. The veteran money launderer is yet to achieve a single budget target. This a hole is only expert in two things, money laundering and forged figures.

The reality of pak economy is quite disturbing at the moment. No wonder these scums keep getting richer with every tenure.

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## farhan_9909

Dazzler said:


> Stop fooling yourself and others. The veteran money launderer is yet to achieve a single budget target. This a hole is only expert in two things, money laundering and forged figures.
> 
> The reality of pak economy is quite disturbing at the moment. No wonder these scums keep getting richer with every tenure.



The govt has clearly failed on economy.Infact such figures were even possible under PPP if they had the support of historic low oil prices and relatively improved security situation.

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## farhan_9909

*Growth target may be cut to 5.7pc*

http://www.dawn.com/news/1260633/growth-target-may-be-cut-to-57pc

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## Nilgiri

farhan_9909 said:


> *Growth target may be cut to 5.7pc*
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1260633/growth-target-may-be-cut-to-57pc



Bhai, doesn't this target of 5.7% seem too optimistic given what was officially achieved this year (4.7%) and some analysts saying the actual growth was actually around 3.1% region?

Is Pakistan looking to revise its base year/methodology soon btw? I remember you were saying this in previous threads, but I havent come across any updates.


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## Danish saleem

because of very bad performance of Agriculture sector government not able to achieve the target.


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## The SC

Every country that has succeeded in increasing its GDP has worked on lowering its inflation rate beforehand..Pakistan should work on that if it is not already doing it..


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## farhan_9909

Nilgiri said:


> Bhai, doesn't this target of 5.7% seem too optimistic given what was officially achieved this year (4.7%) and some analysts saying the actual growth was actually around 3.1% region?
> 
> Is Pakistan looking to revise its base year/methodology soon btw? I remember you were saying this in previous threads, but I havent come across any updates.



Pakistan ccould had achieved 5.2% growth this year if the agri sector had performed like last year(not the target).

The analyst saying growth rate of 3% could not achieve beyond 3% when he was Finance minister for 4 years under PPP.

IMF/WB will confirm it.

5.7% can be achieved if the agri sector perform better this year.

No news about base year change otherwise earlier dar said it would be done in fy 2015-16



The SC said:


> Every country that has succeeded in increasing its GDP has worked on lowering its inflation rate beforehand..Pakistanshould work on that if it is not already doing it..



inflation rate is below 2%

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## The SC

farhan_9909 said:


> Pakistan ccould had achieved 5.2% growth this year if the agri sector had performed like last year(not the target).
> 
> The analyst saying growth rate of 3% could not achieve beyond 3% when he was Finance minister for 4 years under PPP.
> 
> IMF/WB will confirm it.
> 
> 5.7% can be achieved if the agri sector perform better this year.
> 
> No news about base year change otherwise earlier dar said it would be done in fy 2015-16
> 
> 
> 
> inflation rate is below 2%


Very good sign..


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## farhan_9909

https://defence.pk/threads/imf-revises-up-pakistans-2016-2017-growth-forecast-to-5-percent.438254/


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## niaz

There will always be some inflationary tendencies in rapidly growing economies as the disposal income increases with goods & services struggling to keep up with the demand. In my view one should look at the ‘Real’ GDP growth rate rather than the ‘Nominal’ GDP growth rate to assess factual increase in the economy.

It is possible to achieve high GDP growth rate thru capital intensive export led industries or thru service sector such as Banking & Insurance, IT etc. For a country with the abnormally high population growth of 2.7% per annum, such industries, while increasing the overall wealth of the country, are not much help in reducing the poverty. In fact would probably increase inequality in income distribution. In other words, Rich likely to get even Richer while poor remain poor. Such a scenario would also increase shift of the rural population to the cities causing slums and increasing crime.

In my humble opinion, for a country like Pakistan job creation and increasing the productivity of the labour force is far more important. For this purpose focus should be on labour intensive industries and increasing skills & productivity of the rural labour force.

For example, Pakistan is suffering from housing shortage, low cost housing construction in both the rural & urban areas are need of the day. This would help job creation in both the urban & rural areas. In addition, Industries such live-stock for meat & dairy products, horticulture & agricultural goods such as tractors and fertilizer production would provide employment for relatively unskilled rural population.

Pakistan is going to be severely short of water, therefore we must move away from gravity based irrigation and shift to ‘Drop by drop’ irrigation relying on manual labour rather than on computer control. All the canals & feeder channels need to be cemented to reduce water seepage, creating job opportunities for rural population. Most important of all being the energy sector and eliminating the power & gas shortage.

I did not imply that we should ignore capital intensive manufacturing sector altogether, only that low cost, labour intensive industries should be allocated more resources.

In my view, our national aim should be to create a more equitable society where the gap between the ‘Haves’ & the ‘Have nots’ is less. For this achieving a higher growth rate is not as important as creating more employment opportunities. Oldies would notice that such expectations were the real reason for the popularity of ZA Bhutto and the People Party. Sadly that dream turned sour.

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## niaz

In my opinion economic development is the most important job of the government. I came across this article after I had written the above post. The author is far more knowledgeable about economic matter than I and in my opinion it is a must read for all genuinely interested in the economic development of Pakistan.


*The fight against poverty*
By Tahir Habib Cheema
July 25, 2016

Part - 1

Neither development experience nor the effects of social programmes are uniform across the world. There are specific social forces, state structures and individual behaviours that pave way for a development policy to be successful.

Defining and measuring development in economic terms only, while ignoring social inequalities, can lead to serious miscalculation and evaluation of risks associated with social issues like poverty and inequality. A marked difference in the speed and span of the effects of social policies and programs in Asian and Latin American countries confirm this argument. Let us explore why similar social programmes prove to be effective is some countries but fail to achieve the same goals in others.

Social structures lead to social forces which are critical for developing institutions and policies. The success of Asian countries such as South Korea is a result of these formal and positive social forces. Weak, informal and fragmented social institutions in the Latin American countries, for instance Chile and Mexico, have resulted in less efficient social policy results.

Inequality is a result of uneven distribution of power and resources between social groups formed on the basis of these social forces. South Korea already had low levels of inequality and effectively reduced poverty to move from the list of aid recipients to aid donors based on its rapid industrialisation. Chile is still facing serious inequality despite reducing its poverty levels, whereas Mexico is unsuccessful in dealing with both high levels of poverty and inequality.

South Korea was one of the world’s poorest countries after the Korean War with per capita income of $65. The economic transition of the country started in the 1960s and led it to a very high rank of 12 out of 187 countries on the Human Development Index in 2012.This development experience drew strength from the strong state structure and significant amount of foreign aid which helped in economic and political development. Social movement at the grassroots level helped empower the less privileged population. The policy of land reforms reduced income disparity by distribution of land.

Labour-intensive export-oriented industrialisation sectors were encouraged to develop and grow. This added countless jobs to the market with a significantly positive impact on the overall economic condition of the country. Development and implementation of effective and targeted policies was the result of an efficient bureaucracy. Korea experienced an economic miracle during 1960s and 1970s based on these effective policies that transformed the nation from poverty to wealth.

Due to a weak central government, the development experiences of Chile and Mexico have been quite poor. Both internal and external elements have restricted the development pace of these countries. A mobilised working class and the influence of political pressures on policies and social programmes made the objectives vague.

A lack of external economic and political support for these countries put them at a disadvantage to introduce social development programmes. And lack of political will and capital reduced funding for these programmes.

There was a strong opposition in Chile to land reforms which seriously affected development of rural areas and households. Similarly, the benefits of the social programmes in Mexico were not widespread due to strong labour unions, which limited the effects to certain groups. The selective and unequal nature of social programmes in these countries resulted in increasing inequality.

Latin American countries have focused more on Conditional Cash Transfers which have shown limited impact questioning the market-oriented approach of the policy towards reducing poverty as compared to need for a multidimensional approach.

One of the major issues with development policymaking is a general tendency to ignore micro approach towards the issues on hand. On the contrary most of the efforts are directed towards looking at the causes in a macro perspective. The same is true for poverty and its effects. Generally the resources are spent with an objective to deal with the bigger causes of poverty, whereas its practical effects like poor health, and violation of basic rights are ignored.

Pakistan is facing a great challenge in the worsening poverty and inequality situation in the country. More than a half million of the population is facing multidimensional poverty, exposing them to the harmful effects of poor health, lack of education, inadequate living standards, low income, poor working conditions and violence threats. No doubt there have been efforts made both by the public and private sectors but nothing significant has been achieved yet. Comparing Pakistan’s poverty situation with the experiences of countries like South Korea, Chile and Mexico, it can be very conveniently said that the country lacks a strategic approach towards designing and implementing focused social programmes to deal with this critical issue.

There is a need to answer the question: why are similar social programmes effective in some countries but fail in others? The concerned policymakers in Pakistan have a lot to learn from the contrasting experiences of the Asian and Latin American countries as discussed.

To be continued

The writer is a public policy graduate from Carnegie Mellon University.

Email: tahir.cheema@fulbrightmail.org

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/137416-The-fight-against-poverty

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## Major Sam

Any update regarding current GDP of pakistan?


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## farhan_9909

Latest Updates for 2016-17

*WB Projects 5% 
*ADB Projects 5.2%
*Moody's Projects 4.9%

Source

http://www.dawn.com/news/1288421/moodys-maintains-stable-outlook-for-pakistani-banks

http://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/355605-Pakistan-economy-to-grow-5pc-in-201617-World-Ban

https://defence.pk/threads/adb-revises-growth-rate-for-pakistan-to-5-2.451902/

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## Nanga Tarzan

I was just wondering - do these agencies gather this data independently or is this data provided by the respective governments?


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## monitor

* Diaspora's 2016 Remittances to Pakistan Rise 5.1% to $20.5 Billion  *

Overseas Pakistanis sent home $20.5 billion in remittances in 2016, an increase of 5.1% over 2015, according to the World Bank. Pakistan's remittances are 7.5% of its 2015 GDP of $270 billion. 

*Pakistan's Declining Exports:*

The increase in remittances from the diaspora is welcome news in Pakistan suffering from precipitous 12% decline of export earnings and gaping 35-year high trade deficit of $24 billion in 2016.

The World Bank report said 2016 remittances to India declined by 5% to $65.5 billion while Bangladesh received $14.9 billion, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous year. 

*Declining Remittances to South Asia: *

Remittances to South Asia region as a whole declined by 2.3 percent in 2016, following a 1.6 percent decline in 2015. Remittances from the oil-rich GCC countries continued to decline due to lower oil prices and labor market ‘nationalization’ policies in Saudi Arabia, according to the report.






*Top Recipients of Remittances: *

The top recipients of remittances in 2016 are, India ($65.%b), China ($65.2b), the Philippines ($29.1b), Mexico ($28.1b) and Pakistan ($20.3b) and, in terms of remittances as a share of GDP, Nepal (32.2%), Liberia (31.%), Tajikistan (28.8%), Kyrgyz Republic (25.7%) and Haiti (24.7%).

Pakistan is not alone in seeing its exports decline amid weakness in world demand, particularly in Europe with its slowing economy. However, India's 2016 exports decline is much lower at 5.5% and India's trade deficit actually shrank.

*Summary: *

Increase in remittances to Pakistan is good news, especially amid declining worldwide remittances. However, Pakistan can not continue to count on remittances from overseas workers in the midst of low oil prices affecting the GCC nations where millions of Pakistanis work. It must take urgent steps to boost exports and lower its trade deficit to avoid yet another bill-of-payments crisis requiring yet another IMF bailout.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistani Diaspora

CPEC to Add Over 2 Million New Jobs in Pakistan

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Growth Forecast

Is Pakistan Ready For War With India?

India's Israel Envy: Surgical Strikes in Pakistan?

Growing Middle Class in Pakistan

Rising Energy Consumption

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Pakistan's Thar Desert Sees Development Boom

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## Devil Soul

*Pakistan lags behind India, Bangladesh in economic growth: report*
By News Desk
Published: October 10, 2016
39SHARES
SHARE TWEET EMAIL





kistan’s economic activity is projected to gradually accelerate over the medium term reaching 5.0 per cent in 2017 and 5.4 per cent in 2018. PHOTO: REUTERS

Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is lagging behind that of India and Bangladesh, a report by the World Bank found.

While India is named as the fastest growing economy in the region, Pakistan sits behind Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal in growth rates. India’s economic activity is expected to accelerate to 7.7 per cent in 2017, after maintaining a solid 7.6 per cent in 2016 due to a growth in consumption – boosted by normal monsoon and civil service pay revisions, the report reveals.

*$1b Sukuk proves global confidence in Pakistan: Dar*

On the other hand, “Pakistan’s economic activity is projected to gradually accelerate over the medium term reaching 5.0 per cent in 2017 and 5.4 per cent in 2018, building upon 4.7 per cent GDP growth at factor cost in 2016 (5.7 per cent at market prices).” The report adds that “economic growth is primarily driven by public and private consumption, however, some re-balancing in growth components is expected due to a rise in investment.”

This growth is the result of infrastructure projects under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and related public investment. CPEC can also help accelerate growth in the domestic construction industry, as well as increase electricity generation.

*Mixed picture of Pakistan’s economy*

The report notes; however, that “sustainable and inclusive growth and poverty reduction will require greater private sector investment and the development of infrastructure in the medium term, as well as a continued focus on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.”

The report indicates that Afghanistan’s economy is expected to make a slow recovery over the next three years, while in Bangladesh, most economic indicators remain stable.

Further, the report, published last week, seeks to examine ways in which the South Asian economy is gradually accelerating. Statistics show that economic growth is expected to gradually accelerate to 7.3 per cent in 2017 from 7.1 per cent in 2016 in South Asia.

*Govt’s savings offset by unchecked borrowings*

However, the region also suffers from a challenging business environment leading to more insecurity and uncertainty, which could have a negative impact on investor confidence. “Political economy risks are widespread across South Asia, and uncertainty will need to be managed, particularly with a view to creating an attractive environment for domestic and foreign investment alike,” said World Bank South Asia Region’s Chief Economist Martin Rama.


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## Bad Guy

The SC said:


> Every country that has succeeded in increasing its GDP has worked on lowering its inflation rate beforehand..Pakistan should work on that if it is not already doing it..


I don't think so, a balanced inflation is required for higher nominal output and minimizing the gap between GDPs in PPP and nominal.

If you only account nominal GDP growth, China's nominal GDP would be around $5.4 trillions today nowhere near official $10 trillions. But Inflation and Yuan appreciation are the factor which helped them to inflate their economy.
There's a very good reason that India is trying to maintain 
it and Indian Economists are concerned by possible deflation due to demonetization (however, will be recovered with GST).
Meanwhile Japan is lagging because of lack of inflationary environment.


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## Arsala.nKhan

*Is Pakistan heading towards a serious debt problem?*
*or several months, Pakistani economists have been warning that the country is heading towards a serious debt problem that will destabilise the economy. The overall debt, estimated at 12.7 trillion rupees in 2016, is considerably higher than the 9.5 trillion rupees in 2013. External debt, at 73 billion dollars, has also increased substantially, compared to 61 billion dollars in 2013.

There is nothing wrong with debt in itself. Private businesses borrow happily, as long as the rate of return on the debt-financed investment is higher than the cost of borrowing. Similarly, countries should borrow if their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is faster than the rate at which debt is serviced (interest plus principle payments).

However, governments can shift the bad consequences associated with debt to the private sector or to the next generation. ‘Feel good’ projects, that translate into votes, but do not help the economy, do this.

Good economists, therefore, look for early warning signs.

One sign is the size of the total debt relative to the economy (total debt to GDP ratio). If this ratio rises fast, the government will either increase taxes or borrow huge amounts from banks — thus raising interest rates.

The other warning sign concerns the external debt. The cost of external debt is incurred in foreign currency, so that the appropriate ratio to focus on is the cost of external debt service to exports. A rapid increase in this ratio depletes foreign reserves, triggers devaluation and increases the cost of debt.

Using Ministry of Finance data, the World Bank estimates the debt-to-GDP ratio to be at 67.4 per cent, considerably higher than the 60 per cent limit. Interest payments will thus continue to eat into the budget, squeezing much needed infrastructure and social sector investments.

The State Bank of Pakistan estimates that external debt service-to-exports ratio at 20 per cent for 2016, which is better than the 22.5 per cent last year. The worry, however, is that exports are stagnant, even declining (27.4 billion dollars in 2016, compared to 31.5 billion dollars in 2013), which means that our ability to service future external debt liabilities is eroding.

An important message, therefore, is that there be no surprises (unaccounted for contingent liabilities) in large debt -financed investments (including those associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), and that there be improvement of export performance.

Otherwise, debt service will become a huge burden on the economy.
*

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## Turingsage

*Year-end alarm bells*
Home / Today's Paper / Opinion / Year-end alarm bells
By Farrukh Saleem
January 01, 2017

_Capital suggestion_



Alarm bell number 1: From July to September, the federal government’s net revenue receipts stood at Rs369 billion. For the same period, the federal government’s debt servicing liability stood at Rs413 billion. Lo and behold, the federal government’s net revenue receipts are not even enough to cover debt servicing. For the record, net revenue receipts have never been so low ever.

The federal government must borrow to cover defence. The federal government must borrow to cover pensions – both civil and military. The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses of running the civil government. The federal government must borrow to cover public order and safety affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover environment protection. The federal government must borrow to cover health affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses on ‘culture and religion’. The federal government must borrow to cover all allocations for social protection.

Alarm bell number 2: For the first five months of the current fiscal year, the repatriation of foreign exchange in the form of profits and dividends on foreign direct investment stood at $591 million. For the first five months of the current fiscal year, the total foreign direct investment stood at $460 million. Lo and behold, Pakistan paid out $131 million more than what Pakistan received as foreign direct investment.

What this means is that foreigners are taking out more dollars from Pakistan than the dollars being invested into Pakistan by foreigners. This is both scary and unsustainable.

Alarm bell number 3: From July to November, our exports stood at $8.7 billion. For the period between July and November, our imports stood at $17.3 billion. Lo and behold, Pakistan’s goods deficit stood at a colossal $8.6 billion. For the period between July and November, the current account deficit reached $2.6 billion, widening by an alarming 91 percent year-on-year. On a pro-rata basis, an annual current account deficit in excess of $6 billion is both scary and unsustainable.

Alarm bell number 4: Between June 2013 and June 2016, the government took dollar loans. From the World Bank, ADB and Islamic Development bank, it took $9.7 billion. From the IMF, it borrowed $6.2 billion. Bilateral loans amounted to $3.6 billion while bonds issued stood at $3.5 billion. From commercial banks, it took $1.85 billion. That’s a total of $25 billion over three years (over the same period, $11.95 billion was spent in the repayment of previous loans). To be certain, all these new foreign loans would have to be paid back in dollars. Lo and behold, our exports are going down and foreign investors are taking out more dollars than they are bringing into Pakistan. Again, this is scary and unsustainable.

Alarm bell number 5: On October 13, the IMF completed its twelfth and the final review under the $6.2 billion Extended Arrangement. To be sure, the budget for 2016-17, under the direction of the IMF, kept a cap of 3.8 percent of GDP on the budgetary deficit. The IMF plan has come to an end and the election is coming up. Now, prepare for a ballooning budgetary deficit.



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/175908-Year-end-alarm-bells

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## Panther 57

Turingsage said:


> *Year-end alarm bells*
> Home / Today's Paper / Opinion / Year-end alarm bells
> By Farrukh Saleem
> January 01, 2017
> 
> _Capital suggestion_
> 
> 
> 
> Alarm bell number 1: From July to September, the federal government’s net revenue receipts stood at Rs369 billion. For the same period, the federal government’s debt servicing liability stood at Rs413 billion. Lo and behold, the federal government’s net revenue receipts are not even enough to cover debt servicing. For the record, net revenue receipts have never been so low ever.
> 
> The federal government must borrow to cover defence. The federal government must borrow to cover pensions – both civil and military. The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses of running the civil government. The federal government must borrow to cover public order and safety affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover environment protection. The federal government must borrow to cover health affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses on ‘culture and religion’. The federal government must borrow to cover all allocations for social protection.
> 
> Alarm bell number 2: For the first five months of the current fiscal year, the repatriation of foreign exchange in the form of profits and dividends on foreign direct investment stood at $591 million. For the first five months of the current fiscal year, the total foreign direct investment stood at $460 million. Lo and behold, Pakistan paid out $131 million more than what Pakistan received as foreign direct investment.
> 
> What this means is that foreigners are taking out more dollars from Pakistan than the dollars being invested into Pakistan by foreigners. This is both scary and unsustainable.
> 
> Alarm bell number 3: From July to November, our exports stood at $8.7 billion. For the period between July and November, our imports stood at $17.3 billion. Lo and behold, Pakistan’s goods deficit stood at a colossal $8.6 billion. For the period between July and November, the current account deficit reached $2.6 billion, widening by an alarming 91 percent year-on-year. On a pro-rata basis, an annual current account deficit in excess of $6 billion is both scary and unsustainable.
> 
> Alarm bell number 4: Between June 2013 and June 2016, the government took dollar loans. From the World Bank, ADB and Islamic Development bank, it took $9.7 billion. From the IMF, it borrowed $6.2 billion. Bilateral loans amounted to $3.6 billion while bonds issued stood at $3.5 billion. From commercial banks, it took $1.85 billion. That’s a total of $25 billion over three years (over the same period, $11.95 billion was spent in the repayment of previous loans). To be certain, all these new foreign loans would have to be paid back in dollars. Lo and behold, our exports are going down and foreign investors are taking out more dollars than they are bringing into Pakistan. Again, this is scary and unsustainable.
> 
> Alarm bell number 5: On October 13, the IMF completed its twelfth and the final review under the $6.2 billion Extended Arrangement. To be sure, the budget for 2016-17, under the direction of the IMF, kept a cap of 3.8 percent of GDP on the budgetary deficit. The IMF plan has come to an end and the election is coming up. Now, prepare for a ballooning budgetary deficit.
> 
> 
> 
> The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
> 
> https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/175908-Year-end-alarm-bells


He is wrong, these are not Alarm Bells. Time for alarm has already gone past, event has already started. Drastic measures are needed to contain the damage.

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## VCheng

> The IMF plan has come to an end and the election is coming up. Now, prepare for a ballooning budgetary deficit.



What's the problem? Time for yet another IMF bailout program.


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## SSGcommandoPAK

ASamiSSG said:


> *Pakistan builds state-of-the-art warships to defend new trade routes with China*
> Pakistan has started building a missile warship aimed at protecting its transformative trade route being constructed with China.With trading routes reaching Pakistan's port cities of Gwadar and Karachi, the country aims to modernise its navy to protect any exports, especially oil, from potential threats in the Arabian Sea.
> the Azmat-style ship, which has been designed by China, carries eight anti-ship missiles and six larger missiles with a range of 280km and a 300-kg warhead.
> 
> The vessel could be used to escort oil tankers between the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iran, and sees 20% of the world's oil pass through the waterway.
> The CPEC is also expected to generate great economic returns for Pakistan, with thousands of jobs to be created.
> 
> However, the scheme is not without its critics. Pakistan's government has on Tuesday (3 January) allowed for 40% of the Karachi-based Pakistan Stock Exchange to be sold to a Chinese consortium for $85m.


Offtopic ! please stick to the topic .This is thread is not about Azmat class FAC .


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## farhan_9909

ISLAMABAD: Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew 8.02 per cent in November on a year-on-year basis. Some interpret it as start of a revival in the industrial
ISLAMABAD: Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew 8.02 per cent in November on a year-on-year basis. Some interpret it as start of a revival in the industrial production.

With the higher-than-expected growth in LSM, the government is expected to achieve the GDP growth target of 5.7pc for 2016-17.

In July-Nov, LSM grew 3.24pc over the corresponding months of the last year, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1308054/large-scale-manufacturing-expanded-8pc-in-november

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## .




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## Hafiz-Zafar

Pakistan's economy is getting better. All the indexes are showing growth and Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050.


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## Khan_21

Hafiz-Zafar said:


> Pakistan's economy is getting better. All the indexes are showing growth and Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050.



You meant top 10 by 2050 ? Because its already in top 40 .

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## usamafarooqui2

Hafiz-Zafar said:


> Pakistan's economy is getting better. All the indexes are showing growth and Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050.



broo u mean top 10?
we can get to top 10 in 2025 if we bring some good politician to grab a colar

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## Zain tariq pk

Please vote for pri


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## My-Analogous

Zain tariq pk said:


> Please vote for pri


What is PRI?

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## LinuxNoob9

Anybody know the real GDP growth rate by an independent source or think tank other than the IMF?


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## Flash_Ninja

LinuxNoob9 said:


> Anybody know the real GDP growth rate by an independent source or think tank other than the IMF?



ADB and WB say it is 5.2%

State Bank says 5-6%

Ishaq Dar says it's somewhere above 5%

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## PakCan

Pakistan has been added to the "Emerging Market Index". With this, hopefully more foreign investors will look towards Pakistan. 
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40081530


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## farhan_9909

World bank south asia growth projection

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...ential-growth-lead-saef?CID=SAR_FB_SAR_EN_EXT

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## WhyCry

farhan_9909 said:


> View attachment 430429
> World bank south asia growth projection
> 
> http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...ential-growth-lead-saef?CID=SAR_FB_SAR_EN_EXT


Did pakistan grew at 7.1% and 8.6%? Wow


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## Shahzaz ud din

*Pakistan’s economy to grow at over 5pc: World Bank’s SAEF report*
By Staff Report -
October 9, 2017
r





*Islamabad:* World Bank released its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus report on Monday stating it expects Pakistan’s economy to grow at over 5pc.

In Pakistan, economic growth is expected to accelerate to more than 5 percent this and the next year provided country’s fiscal deficits remain well managed and external stability is maintained. Efforts to reverse the trade and fiscal imbalances and continued implementation of reforms will be needed for sustaining and accelerating growth and improving welfare.

After having led global growth for over two years, South Asia has stalled and fallen to second place, after East Asia and the Pacific region. The slowness in growth has been attributed to temporary shocks and longer-term challenges, said the report.

The reasons for the slowdown in growth, especially in India have taken place due to internal factors such as fall in private investment, increase in exports and government spending.

WB, South Asia Region Vice President Annette Dixon said “While growth rates in South Asia largely remain robust given the economic shocks that some countries in the region have faced*, *countries should continue to actively address their growing trade and fiscal deficits. With the right mix of policies to respond to challenges, we remain confident that South Asian countries can accelerate their growth to create more opportunities and prosperity for their people.”

South Asia’s growth will fall to 6.9pc during 2017 from 7.8pc in 2016, and will rise again to 7.1pc by 2017 provided the right policies and reforms are undertaken.

Highlighting South Asia was once at the cutting edge of economic measures and analysis, usage of pioneering techniques which included the use of household surveys, the report stated. Also, the rise in usage of big data could assist in improvement of economic measurement in South Asia.

“We’re very excited about the potential of adopting new sources of data to improve our understanding of economic activity. Nightlight data, for instance, is easy to obtain, regularly updated, and very informative,” said World Bank South Asia Region Chief Economist Martin Rama. “In this report, it allows us to shed light on recent episodes and to provide a new perspective on how policies and shocks impacted the region, down to the local level.”

Afghanistan’s economic recovery remains slow with continuing insecurity curbing private investment and consumer demand. Growth is projected to accelerate slightly from 2.6 percent in 2017 to 3.4 percent in 2018. However, with population growth of nearly 3 percent, such a level of economic growth means minimal income per capita growth. Sustained economic growth requires transforming the economy through better health and education, improved agriculture, and the development of the country’s mining resources.

The economy in Bangladesh remains strong with accelerating industrial production and resilient services. However, growth is expected to moderate this year. Deficits are widening as export growth and remittances have weakened, which should be monitored and addressed along with increasing stresses on the financial sector and uncertainties around the upcoming elections.

Economic activity in Bhutan has kept growth strong with the economy expected to grow at 6.7 percent in 2017 and 6.9 percent in 2018. Hydropower projects, supportive policies combined with low inflation, a stable exchange rate and greater financial reserves have contributed to growth and poverty reduction. However, risks are emerging, including possible delays in hydropower construction and the slowdown in growth in India.

India’s economic momentum has been affected from disruptions from the withdrawal of banknotes and uncertainties around the GST. Growth is expected to slow from 8.6 percent in 2015 to 7.0 percent in 2017. Sound policies around balancing public spending with private investment could accelerate growth to 7.3 percent by 2018. While sustained growth is expected to translate to continued poverty reduction, more focus could be made to help benefit the informal economy more.

In Maldives, GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 5 percent as the government embarks on several major infrastructure projects to help move Maldivians to the capital city Malé. Construction is expected to be a key driver of growth, with tourism also recovering. The country could better align economic activity with providing more employment opportunities, and better health as well as education services. In addition, it needs to prepare for the impacts of climate change.

Nepal has seen an impressive economic recovery after disruptions from earthquakes and a trade blockade. Economic activity rebounded to 7.5 percent in 2017 through increasing government resources, spending, and remittances from abroad. Growth is expected to slow in 2018 due to the heaviest floods in decades, slow recovery of exports, and an increase in lending rates.

Sri Lanka’s economic growth is projected to grow at 4.6 percent in 2017 and achieve 5 percent growth in the years ahead. Public finances and reserves have improved despite a high budget deficit and public debt. Frequent natural disasters continue to weaken economic performance and are likely to increase poverty. Accelerating reforms to promote competitiveness, better governance, and a more balanced budget are critical to ensure sustained growth and development.

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## AyanRay

WhyCry said:


> Did pakistan grew at 7.1% and 8.6%? Wow



Nope, just go to the link. Those are India's figures.


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## Great Sachin

farhan_9909 said:


> View attachment 430429
> World bank south asia growth projection
> 
> http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...ential-growth-lead-saef?CID=SAR_FB_SAR_EN_EXT


joke of the year


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## Shahzaz ud din

Hafiz-Zafar said:


> Pakistan's economy is getting better. All the indexes are showing growth and Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050.


*Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050*


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## ziaulislam

if pakistan maintain 7-9% growth for 10 years it should hit top 20 economies


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## farhan_9909

Great Sachin said:


> joke of the year



why?

Edit**

Typo from WB.They have changed it


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## Great Sachin

ziaulislam said:


> if pakistan maintain 7-9% growth for 10 years it should hit top 20 economies


if..uf



Janbaz Rao said:


> *Pakistan is expected to be the 50th largest economic power by 2050*


he may be right.....Pakistan dont have money to pay loan interests


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## ziaulislam

Great Sachin said:


> if..uf
> 
> 
> he may be right.....Pakistan dont have money to pay loan interests



we are already growing at 5.7...there is not much if uf from 5.7 to 7 (difference of 1.3 points/20%)
the growth surely is going to pick up from today..all indicators and all international organizations are pointing towards it

where did you get we dont have money to pay loans, loans payment doesnt even constitutes 25% of our budget?
as i said if we take current growth not, "uf if" the economy is going to double twice in 18 years putting Pakistan in top 15-20 GDPs..this is not counting the expected re basing the economy that is happening now and not counting faster growth which is expected

this is happening despite Indian sponsored state terrorism, *supported by its leaders acknowledge on all media forums*


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## Great Sachin

ziaulislam said:


> we are already growing at 5.7...there is not much if uf from 5.7 to 7 (difference of 1.3 points/20%)
> the growth surely is going to pick up from today..all indicators and all international organizations are pointing towards it
> 
> where did you get we dont have money to pay loans, loans payment doesnt even constitutes 25% of our budget?
> as i said if we take current growth not, "uf if" the economy is going to double twice in 18 years putting Pakistan in top 15-20 GDPs..this is not counting the expected re basing the economy that is happening now and not counting faster growth which is expected
> 
> this is happening despite Indian sponsored state terrorism, *supported by its leaders acknowledge on all media forums*


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## liall

Is Pakistan classified as an emerging economy? I was looking at the new IMF report for October 2017 and couldnt find projections for Pakistan in the emerging economies list.


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## Chak Bamu

Patriotic Pakistanis of Youthia variety and non-Pakistanis of Indian variety are having trouble digesting good news about Pakistan's growth because of Cognitive Dissonance.

Next year shall be a very challenging year, no doubt, and I fully expect jitters and readjustments stemming from balance of payments situation. Other than that, everything points towards consistent and unbroken growth trend in Pakistan.

Key event would be Neelum-Jhelum project's commissioning and addition of about 900 MW cheaper electric generation capacity. Gas and Coal powered plants, along with Tarbela IV extension would put Pakistan's electricity situation on a very sound footing. As other CPEC projects mature, we will see a real shift in sentiment.

Any misadventure from within, or a black swan event may upset this trajectory. But one thing is for sure, Pakistan is about to enter its golden growth phase where Democratic Institutions and Economy would develop side-by-side and investments would start to flow on an ever-faster rate in a virtuous cycle.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...continue-to-support-pakistan-economic-reforms

O ye naysayers, read and weep.


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## Awan68

Chak Bamu said:


> Patriotic Pakistanis of Youthia variety and non-Pakistanis of Indian variety are having trouble digesting good news about Pakistan's growth because of Cognitive Dissonance.
> 
> Next year shall be a very challenging year, no doubt, and I fully expect jitters and readjustments stemming from balance of payments situation. Other than that, everything points towards consistent and unbroken growth trend in Pakistan.
> 
> Key event would be Neelum-Jhelum project's commissioning and addition of about 900 MW cheaper electric generation capacity. Gas and Coal powered plants, along with Tarbela IV extension would put Pakistan's electricity situation on a very sound footing. As other CPEC projects mature, we will see a real shift in sentiment.
> 
> Any misadventure from within, or a black swan event may upset this trajectory. But one thing is for sure, Pakistan is about to enter its golden growth phase where Democratic Institutions and Economy would develop side-by-side and investments would start to flow on an ever-faster rate in a virtuous cycle.
> 
> http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...continue-to-support-pakistan-economic-reforms
> 
> O ye naysayers, read and weep.


When will the gdp rebasing be complete n what do u expect the new figures to be?


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## AsianLion

The economic situation is set to become worse in 2019, when $12.7bn of external repayments are due, compared with $7.7bn this year. Fitch issued a warning last week saying declining forex reserves and rising current account deficit were adding to Pakistan’s burgeoning external financing risks.


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## Karna_007

liall said:


> Is Pakistan classified as an emerging economy? I was looking at the new IMF report for October 2017 and couldnt find projections for Pakistan in the emerging economies list.



Pakistan is not an emerging economy, only these countries are emerging economies,most highest growth rate is India standing >7%






@Umair Nawaz @DESERT FIGHTER @FuturePAF @MBT 3000


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## DESERT FIGHTER

Karna_007 said:


> Pakistan is not an emerging economy, only these countries are emerging economies,most highest growth rate is India standing >7%
> 
> View attachment 485063
> 
> 
> @Umair Nawaz @DESERT FIGHTER @FuturePAF @MBT 3000







https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecard-supports-mexico-and-turkey-over-india


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## Karna_007

DESERT FIGHTER said:


> View attachment 485064
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecard-supports-mexico-and-turkey-over-india



Sorry to burst your bubble. Turkey is not even in a league with regards to China or India...

What is the growth rate of turkey?
What is the economic size of Turkey?
What is the forex reserve of Turkey?
What is the status of cement,coal and steel production of Turkey vs China or India?
How many metros are constructing in cities of Turkey?
What is the retail size of Turkey?
What is the electricity production of Turkey?
How many agricultural products that Turkey leading in the world?
What is the software and Pharma industry of Turkey?
What is the FDI of Turkey?

Yes they do have advantage with regards to per-capita

What is the stock market cap size of Turkey?



DESERT FIGHTER said:


> View attachment 485064
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecard-supports-mexico-and-turkey-over-india



Turkey will grow between 3-6% in a year and same for upcoming years as well according to latest IMF data on April 2018.Even China is slowing to less than 6% growth rate from 2022.You countries growth rate is 3-6% until 2023 as per IMF data

This is the estimated growth rate of countries in 2023 as per IMF






@HAIDER @PatrioticPaki @My-Analogous @abbasniazi @Marine Rouge @ThanatosI @mohsen 

*As per IMF estimates by 2023*

India will be >4.6 trillion dollar economy
Pakistan>0.5 trillion
Turkey>1.2 trillion
Mexico>1.5 trillion

@Winchester @Aasimkhan @Isotope @Armchair @hazzam @fitpOsitive @Zarvan @RiazHaq

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## fitpOsitive

Karna_007 said:


> Sorry to burst your bubble. Turkey is not even in a league with regards to China or India...
> 
> What is the growth rate of turkey?
> What is the economic size of Turkey?
> What is the forex reserve of Turkey?
> What is the status of cement,coal and steel production of Turkey vs China or India?
> How many metros are constructing in cities of Turkey?
> What is the retail size of Turkey?
> What is the electricity production of Turkey?
> How many agricultural products that Turkey leading in the world?
> What is the software and Pharma industry of Turkey?
> What is the FDI of Turkey?
> 
> Yes they do have advantage with regards to per-capita
> 
> What is the stock market cap size of Turkey?
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey will grow between 3-6% in a year and same for upcoming years as well according to latest IMF data on April 2018.Even China is slowing to less than 6% growth rate from 2022.You countries growth rate is 3-6% until 2023 as per IMF data
> 
> This is the estimated growth rate of countries in 2023 as per IMF
> 
> View attachment 485067
> 
> 
> @HAIDER @PatrioticPaki @My-Analogous @abbasniazi @Marine Rouge @ThanatosI @mohsen
> 
> *As per IMF estimates by 2023*
> 
> India will be >4.6 trillion dollar economy
> Pakistan>0.5 trillion
> Turkey>1.2 trillion
> Mexico>1.5 trillion
> 
> @Winchester @Aasimkhan @Isotope @Armchair @hazzam @fitpOsitive @Zarvan @RiazHaq


Sir, there are few more things, which you are ignoring. Can you lable a country even a noticable one which she a annual growth rate of 1.9% ? But trust me, some countries are there who are mora powefull than India, in every aspect, and have annual growth rate of less than 2%. So, keep calm, keep listening, and keep growing.

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## MBT 3000

Karna_007 said:


> Pakistan is not an emerging economy, only these countries are emerging economies,most highest growth rate is India standing >7%
> 
> View attachment 485063
> 
> 
> @Umair Nawaz @DESERT FIGHTER @FuturePAF @MBT 3000


after elections pakistan will be


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## FuturePAF

The large Debt payments will destroy the economy next year if not seriously addressed as the top priority by the next government. Attract FDI outside of CPEC, make large economic reforms, Slow down conventional defense acquisitions by a few years if necessary, and reform government enterprises to cut out waste/corruption ASAP. an increase of US $5 billion on top of what is paid out will be brutal. Economic reforms are needs foremost on day one.


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## ziaulislam

Might cross 10b soon..need to be 3 months= 13-14b

Still 3 b more to come from gulf...not counting oil facility


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## Bilal9

Payra Power generation update, coal jetty infra installed a week ago. Unit 1 turbine is already installed. Will be finished and generating power by August the way things are moving


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## Nilgiri

Bilal9 said:


> Payra Power generation update, coal jetty infra installed a week ago. Unit 1 turbine is already installed. Will be finished and generating power by August the way things are moving



Wrong thread moron.

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## Shahzaz ud din

Nilgiri said:


> Wrong thread moron !!!!.

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## Mage

Nilgiri said:


> Wrong thread moron.


He's trying to show greatness of Bangladesh to Pakistanis

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## Pakhtoon yum

Mage said:


> He's trying to show greatness of Bangladesh to Pakistanis


The words greatness and Bangladesh the rogue province, do not go well together

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## CrazyZ

The current forex situation is tight but one item for hope is that Pakistan has vast untapped energy resources....the most left in south asia. Energy shortage is a huge drag on Pakistan's economic growth. If this is corrected with our vast untapped hydro, shale oil/gas (possibly offshore), thar coal, solar, and biomass resources...we could easily have double digit economic growth. 

India's domestic coal production can no longer meet its needs. India is now a coal importer. Don't underestimate the importance of cheap abundant coal to India's economic growth. There are already reports of coal shortages at Indian power plants....this could impact their growth going forward.


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