# Questionable BBS GDP Statistics



## Destranator

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is the main economic statistics agency of Bangladesh responsible for collecting necessary economic data to calculate the GDP.

Due to the sheer amount of data collection and calculations involved in coming up with GDP figures, multinational agencies such as IMF, World Bank, CIA and ADB are forced to rely on BBS statistics as the basis of their own forecasts despite raising concerns on the validity of BBS statistics on many occasions. *The inclusion of BBS-derived data into the comparision tables of these multinational agencies often creates the false impression among less informed Bangladeshis that these figures are verified and validated by them which could not be further from the truth.*

It has become quite fashionable for some people to throw around GDP stats to brag about Bangladesh's economic development and belittle other countries. While there is no doubt about the significant economic strides Bangladesh has made since 1990 and particularly in the last 10 years, there remain credible concerns regarding tampering by BBS to inflate GDP stats for political purposes.

The purpose of this thread is for readers to keep informed of the concerns raised by experts over the years in order to be able to form informed opinions about Bangladesh's GDP figures.
Historical articles will be posted.


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*GDP decided first, calculations done later*
By Riti Ibrahim

_The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has provisionally calculated the growth of 5.24 per cent for the gross domestic product (GDP) in the last 2019-20 fiscal year. Economists and private research organisations claim that this growth calculation does not match reality. Questions have also been raised about the competence of BBS. There have also been allegations of political interference in modifying and fabricating data and information generated by BBS. Riti Ibrahim, former secretary of the statistics and information management department of the planning ministry, spoke on the issue. Jahangir Shah transcribed her deliberation._
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has given a provisional account of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the previous financial year. This calculation has been made on the basis of information received till 31 March (first nine months of the financial year). Presumably, this provisional estimate was drawn up by BBS in the normal process just as in any other year.
The last three months of the financial year (April-June) remained static due to the coronavirus outbreak in the country. Remittance may have increased. But there is cause to be concerned as many have lost their jobs, many have been sent back to the country. In this situation, the GDP growth will not be as much as shown in the BBS provisional calculation for the whole financial year. This can be termed as an inflated estimate.


> BBS has its weaknesses. There are very few people who have degrees in statistics. The major setback is that there are no statisticians of that quality who will guide BBS.


I *saw at the beginning of my career that it is decided beforehand of how much GDP growth will be announced to the public. Later this was somehow fixed by calculating backwards.*
However, the few years that I was in charge, I did not allow this to happen. Especially during the census, I instructed that no eraser can be used. The first data found in the field level should be the final data. I do not understand why so much influence is exerted on GDP? GDP is not everything. Development in social sectors such as women's empowerment, health must also be taken into consideration.


> New officers were appointed to BBS. Most of them are non-professionals. I believe initiatives need to be taken to strengthen BBS.


BBS has its weaknesses. There are very few people who have degrees in statistics. The major setback is that there are no statisticians of that quality who will guide BBS. The consultants are all administration cadre officers. So there is considerable weakness at the advisory level. *There is also a weakness in the method of collecting information in the field. Nobody seems to care about BBS data*.
The Department of Statistics and Information Management was formed to advise the BBS. It was well planned, but it was not enough. Those who have worked at BBS for a long time know a lot about statistics. They were once transferred to the Department of Statistics and Information Management. New officers were appointed to BBS. Most of them are non-professionals. I believe initiatives need to be taken to strengthen BBS.
_**This analysis, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liaka*_








GDP decided first, calculations done later


Questions have been raised about the competence of BBS. There have also been allegations of political interference in modifying and fabricating data and information generated by BBS




en.prothomalo.com

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## fallstuff

She should include instances were datas were cooked otherwise its just not credible.


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## Destranator

fallstuff said:


> She should include instances were datas were cooked otherwise its just not credible.


A former secretary of Dept of Statistics and Information Management is as credible as it gets. She is risking losing her pension, gratuity and physical wellbeing by writing this.

BBS does not publish full data and calculations on purpose despite repeated requests as it would reveal exact instances of foul play.


..............
*World Bank casts doubt on Bangladesh's GDP growth forecast*
Staff Correspondent, *bdnews24.com*
Published: 2018-04-09 19:32:51 BdST

*The World Bank has its doubt about the Bangladesh government’s 7.65 percent economic growth projection for the ongoing fiscal year.*
​
“Remittance inflows have recovered somewhat. But, it remains lower than expected,” said Washington-based global lender's lead economist in Dhaka, Zahid Hussain. "So, where is the source of growth?” he asked.
In sharp contrast to the government’s growth estimate, Zahid said, “Private investment did not pick up the pace of what is required to attain the government’s projection.”
Presenting Bangladesh Development Update report on Monday, *he said the BBS data shows the manufacturing sector grew 13.2 percent in last fiscal year over the previous fiscal, but only 200,000 jobs were generated, and private investment remained stagnant during the period.
“How does manufacturing industry expand so fast? This is the question.”*
The lender slightly raised its forecast for Bangladesh’s economic growth in the fiscal 2017-18 to 6.5 to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent it projected in January, according to the latest report.
The World Bank's report comes a week after national statistical agency BBS published data on the sector-wise contribution to the GDP in fiscal 2017-18.
According to the data, the domestic demand grew 7.65 percent on the back of manufacturing and construction sectors.
"Higher domestic demand is the driving force of manufacturing growth, but we do not see any spike in domestic demand as growth in the employment, labour income or remittances remained subdued," said Zahid Hussain.









World Bank casts doubt on Bangladesh's GDP growth forecast


The World Bank has its doubt about the Bangladesh government’s 7.65 percent economic growth projection for the ongoing fiscal year.




m.bdnews24.com




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## fallstuff

Destranator said:


> A former secretary of Dept of Statistics and Information Management is as credible as it gets. She is risking losing her pension, gratuity and physical wellbeing by writing this.
> 
> BBS does not publish full data and calculations on purpose despite repeated requests as it would reveal exact instances of foul play.



Whistleblowers need to show the evidence, as Chris Hemsworth said , " প্রমাণ দাও "

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## Destranator

fallstuff said:


> Whistleblowers need to show the the evidence, as Chris Hemsworth said , " প্রমাণ দাও "


Well if we make up our mind to blindly drink govt koolaid and believe whatever Kamal chora throws at us, ignoring experts then there is no hope. You should be asking why BBS hides their field data for each sector.

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## Destranator

*WB questions government data about GDP growth*
FE Online Report | Published: April 09, 2018 18:29:15 | Updated: April 11, 2018 18:44:02







The World Bank (WB) on Monday has expressed doubts about the Bangladesh’s 7.65 per cent GDP growth projection for the current fiscal raising questions regarding some government data.
The Washington-based lender also said the GDP growth is expected to be within the range of 6.5 to 6.6 per cent in the medium term of the current fiscal.
“The robust growth for the current fiscal is doubtful as its correlation with some government statistics is not matched,” said WB Lead Economist Dr Zahid Hussain during a presentation of the Bangladesh Development Update Dhaka.
Hussain raised questions about the government data of the higher manufacturing growth, lower service sector growth compared to its higher job creation, production capacity of the industrial sector, stagnant investment, labour income growth and remittance growth, volatile food and non-food inflation data.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has recently revealed that Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at 7.65 per cent in FY18, which is even higher than its target of 7.5 per cent.
“How this higher growth is furnished with this production capacity in the industrial sector we are noticing over the years? It is only be possible when the production capacity will picked up. But question is --how the capacity has climbed within a year?” Dr Hussain questioned.
He said the manufacturing sector has been estimated to grow faster this year than last year although the private sector investment is observed almost stagnant over the years.
The Lead Economists said the growth is shown mainly based on the expansion of the consumer’s demand or consumption which is not in sync with government’s relevant data.
“But we do not see any leap in any of the cases. The growth of employment was at 2.2 per cent while the labour income was at 2.7 per cent in 2017,” he added.
“Remittance inflows have recovered. Yet, the level of remittance still remains 2.7 per cent less than in July-march of fiscal year 2015-16,” he said.
He asked an explanation or clarification on the government data of projected growth for FY18.
WB Country Director Qimiao Fan was present among others at the function in Dhaka.

kabirhumayan10@gmail.com









WB questions government data about GDP growth


The World Bank (WB) on Monday has expressed doubts about the Bangladesh’s 7.65 per cent GDP growth projection for the current fiscal raising questions regarding some government data. The Washington-based lender also said the GDP growth is expected to be within the range of 6.5 to 6.6 per cent in...




thefinancialexpress.com.bd

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## fallstuff

Destranator said:


> Well if we make up our mind to blindly drink govt koolaid and believe whatever Kamal chora throws at us, ignoring experts then there is no hope. You should be asking why BBS hides their field data for each sector.



I agree Govt #s should not be taken without a grain of salt, and in the same token one should also consider the ulterior motives of a whistleblower. They need to show which numbers were fudged. 
Well she needs to say a certain number is not so for XYZ reasons. 

She herself could be compromised in some way !

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## Destranator

*Fiscal 2019-20’s GDP figure stretches credulity*
*States CPD pointing out BBS attempt at painting a rosy picture*





Star Business Report
The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) yesterday raised questions over the economic growth figure of 5.24 per cent estimated by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in the just-concluded fiscal year.
The obvious repercussions of the pandemic on the economy were not adequately reflected in the provisional GDP growth estimate, released by the statistical agency last week, said the independent think-tank.
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Questions arise regarding the accuracy as all the major indicators, except for remittance, had been in the negative, said CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun at a virtual press briefing.
Economic growth figures are used as a tool to gain leverage in politics, she said.
"An infatuation with growth has been created," she said, adding that the GDP growth has become "a political number" and the growth data being portrayed as a sign of the government's successes.
But GDP growth does not turn meaningful until it is inclusive and the benefits of growth are distributed among all, she said, citing unemployment, rising inequality and the sluggish pace of poverty reduction in the country in recent years.
In its review of BBS's data for fiscal 2019-20, CPD said private sector credit growth had been the lowest in a decade.
Industrial production, export-import of capital machinery, foreign direct investment and revenue collection also declined last fiscal year, resulting from a downturn in the global and domestic economy for the outbreak of the respiratory virus, it said.
"The effect of the Covid-19 is historic on economies including Bangladesh. The effects are unprecedented," Khatun said.
But this was not shown on the GDP growth data, she added.
CPD shared its view less than a week after the state-run BBS said the Bangladesh economy grew at the "respectable rate" they had calculated -- all the while large swathes of the global economy plunged into recession for the outbreak of coronavirus from Wuhan, China.
The BBS estimate beat forecasts by Washington-based multilateral lenders World Bank and International Monetary Fund that the economy would grow between 1.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent in fiscal 2019-20 for the pandemic-whiplash.
The Asian Development Bank said the Bangladesh economy would expand at 4.5 per cent while CPD projected that the GDP growth would be no more than 2.5 per cent.
In its briefing, the organisation did not revise its previous forecast; rather, it stated that the economy grew close to its previous projection of about 2.5 per cent in fiscal 2019-20.
All economic activities, from manufacturing, construction, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communication, community, social and personal services sectors, were hit the hardest during the coronavirus-induced shutdown for almost two months, CPD said.
The provisional GDP estimates could not capture the significant adverse impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, said CPD Senior Research Fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan, presenting a paper at the event.
Many lost jobs while the income of a large section dropped.
"Indeed, more than half of the provisional GDP estimates are not based on credible real-time data," he said, adding that overall growth of the economy would drop from the provisional estimate if updated data were used to do the calculations.
CPD cited data on the rise of private investment used by BBS in the GDP estimate, stating that the rise was indeed unexpected when the entrepreneurs have been struggling to keep their existing production capacity fully operational.
BBS estimated that public investment as a share of GDP also increased in fiscal 2019-20. Overall, investment as a share of GDP increased to 31.75 per cent in fiscal 2019-20 from 31.57 per cent the previous year, CPD said citing the data from the state-run statistical agency.
The GDP growth estimate did not reflect the reality as proxy indicators told a different story, said CPD Distinguished Fellow Mustafizur Rahman.
If the estimations are correct, the nominal GDP growth rate should be about 11 per cent in fiscal 2019-20, he said.
Then the question arises on why the revenue collection performance is such, he said citing declining receipts.
The economy did not grow in the fourth quarter of the year owing to the countrywide general shutdown. The growth was negative.
"We think that the assumption that we made, projecting a 2.5 per cent growth of the economy, is correct."
A wrong signal would go to the policymaking level unless the estimates were carried out properly. And this will not help in the framing of proper policies, Rahman added.
The shutdown affected the services sector, said CPD Research Director Khondaker Golam Moazzem.
The government expanded social safety nets and announced more than Tk 100,000 crore as a stimulus to reinvigorate the economy from the wreckage of the global pandemic.
If the economy grew at this pace, there would have been no need for the measures to revive the economy, he said.
CPD demanded public release of the background data used in calculating the national income to clear the ambiguities and questions regarding the estimation process.
It also urged the government to let the statistical agency to enjoy more independence and form an independent commission to ensure reliability and integrity of data.
As the growth data has become a political number, the independence of people engaged in data collection has been affected, Khatun said.
Moazzem pointed out that South Africa had an independent statistical commission.
Rahman said the government should ensure the integrity of data for its enlightened self-interest.









Fiscal 2019-20’s GDP figure stretches credulity


The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) yesterday raised questions over the economic growth figure of 5.24 per cent estimated by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in the just-concluded fiscal year.




www.thedailystar.net


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## Destranator

Anyone who travels around Bangladesh can tell the significant economic development that has taken place in the last 10 years. The question here is not whether Bangladesh is developing, the question is how accurate the GDP stats are.


*GDP growth doubted, quality questioned*
Jasim Uddin | Published: 00:23, Jun 10,2019 | Updated: 00:53, Jun 10,2019


Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing financial year 2018-19 raising doubt and questions among experts, economists and research bodies.
Over the past decade Bangladesh has registered one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world but experts and economists continue to doubt the figures and sources of growth questioning the authenticity of the government estimation.
Experts and research organisations said that Bangladesh economy was expected to grow at a higher rate but not so high as the government estimated as the primary economic growth drivers and other indicators did not match the estimated rate.
They said that the quality of GDP growth also remained a big concern as poverty reduction and job creation rates were not aligned with the growth rate while inequality kept rising.
Centre for Policy Dialogue on April 23 in a report on the first 100 days of the government doubted the government’s provisional estimate of 8.13 per cent GDP growth for FY19, citing mismatch between the projected growth rate and various economic performance indicators.
The think tank distinguished fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya said that the government-estimated GDP growth was not reflected in various economic indicators, including private investment, private-sector credit growth, capital machinery import, revenue collection and employment generation.
The overall productivity also did not increase while income inequality widened, he said.
The report said that some manufacturing sectors like leather and related products registered very high growth without a commensurate reflection in the export performance.
The tax to GDP ratio and private sector credit also registered lower growth in FY19 compared with FY18, it added.
The GDP deflator growth (4.23 per cent) was also estimated significantly lower than the inflation rate (5.48 per cent as of March 2019), it said.
The think tank analysis showed that the economy was going through a jobless growth phase as the employment rate decreased by 0.95 percentage points in 2010-2017 compared to 2000-2010.
It demanded disclosure of all data based on which the growth was estimated for the sake of transparency of the estimation.
Policy Research Institute executive director Ahsan H Mansur told New Age on Sunday that the country’s economy was growing at a better rate but the rate estimated by the government created questions and doubt as many economic indicators did not match the rate.
Growth in revenue generation was very slow (7.27 per cent in the first nine months of FY19) though it should have been much higher in line with the higher GDP growth and manufacturing growth of 19.50 per cent, he said.
Credit flow in banking sector declined to 12 per cent and businesses were not getting loan due to liquidity crisis, he mentioned.
The rate of bankruptcy also kept rising and employment generation was not increasing at an expected rate, he said.
In this context, the question is what the sources of growth are, he said.
The government should be restraint about GDP growth rate in coming years and GDP growth should be well matched with economic reality, he said, adding that the GDP was not out of overall economic performance rather it was a combined outcome of overall economy.
South Asian Network on Economic Modelling on May 9 in its quarterly review of Bangladesh economy termed the rising economic growth as conundrum and inconsistent with various indicators and the drivers of growth.
Export and remittance are two major drivers of Bangladesh economy but high economic growth in recent years does not match sluggish growth in export and remittance, it said.
The estimated high growth in private consumption also does not match low export and remittance growth.
High manufacturing growth does not match low export growth and slow private investment, it said.
The think tank, however, said that the quality of growth was a big concern.
‘Poverty rate has declined in the country but the growth elasticity of poverty has declined too. That means, the pace of poverty reduction is much slower than the pace of GDP growth rate,’ it said.
Inequality is also rising despite higher growth while employment generation also becomes slower, it added.
The obsession with the GDP growth numbers puts policymakers in the comfort zone and reform-averse, it said.
Its executive director Selim Raihan said that policymakers should focus on whether the growth could remove poverty and inequality, and create enough employment instead of growth numbers.
He said that private consumption grew at an unusual pace despite low growth in export and remittance inflows.
Private investment is also falling in real terms, he said.









GDP growth doubted, quality questioned


Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing...




www.newagebd.net






fallstuff said:


> I agree Govt #s should not be taken without a grain of salt, and in the same token one should also consider the ulterior motives of a whistleblower. They need to show which numbers were fudged.
> Well she needs to say a certain number is not so for XYZ reasons.
> 
> She herself could be compromised in some way !


One expert could be compromised, not mutiple credible experts working for various credible agencies. Stay tuned.

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## Destranator

*SANEM questions Bangladesh GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2018-19*
2019-05-10 00:24:38
Senior Correspondent, *bdnews24.com*













South Asian Network on Economic Modeling or SANEM, a non-profit research organisation, has questioned the current fiscal year’s 8.13 percent economic growth projection.
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Terming the recent economic growth of Bangladesh ‘puzzling’, it said the GDP growth mismatched the statistics and indicators of the country’s economic driving forces.
Earlier, the Centre for Policy Dialogue or CPD, an independent think tank, had also questioned the current year's growth estimate citing inconsistencies in many economic indicators.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, or BBS, the national statistical agency, projected that the economic growth would hit 8.13 percent for the first time in the history of Bangladesh in the fiscal year that will end on June 30.
The World Bank predicted Bangladesh’s economy will grow at 7.3 percent in the fiscal year, lower than the government projection. The Asian Development Bank predicted 8 percent.





“It is said that the increased internal demand rather than exports, remittances and foreign investments brings impetus to the economic growth in Bangladesh. But domestic demand alone cannot bring such an explosive growth in a low-income country like Bangladesh," said SANEM Executive Director Selim Raihan in Dhaka on Thursday.

Referring to the Chinese economic growth, he said its growth rate has slowed down in recent years. One of the major reasons for this is that they adopted the policy of raising domestic consumption.
“So how do we explain this upward GDP growth? From academic and professional point of view, we are struggling to explain this growth," said Raihan, also a professor of economics at Dhaka University.
Highlighting BBS statistics, he said private consumption growth was estimated at 3 percent in 2015-16, 7.43 percent in 2016-17 and 11.02 percent in 2017-18.
“The private consumption growth rate is unusual and puzzling,” he said.
He also expressed his doubt about the high manufacturing growth rate at 13.4 percent in fiscal 2017-18, although export growth was 5.81 percent during the same period when the private investment growth also remained slow.
“The manufacturing growth statistic does not match the poor business environment,” he said.
SANEM wondered how a country can achieve higher economic growth despite low growths in exports and private investment in the current fiscal year.
In 2018, Bangladesh also slipped in ranking in World Bank’s Doing Business and Logistics Performance Index, according to it.









SANEM questions Bangladesh GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2018-19


South Asian Network on Economic Modeling or SANEM, a non-profit research organisation, has questioned the current fiscal year’s 8.13 percent economic growth projection.



bdnews24.com




*Bangladesh's GDP grew by record 7.86pc in FY18, experts doubt*
Staff Correspondent | Published: 00:05, Sep 19,2018 | Updated: 12:58, Sep 19,2018






Bangladesh’s gross domestic product growth hit record 7.86 per cent, beating the provisional estimation by 0.21 percentage points, in the past fiscal year of 2017-2018, according to the final calculation done by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
BBS in its provisional estimate in April said that economic growth of the country would be 7.65 per cent in FY18 against the government’s target of 7.4 per cent for the fiscal year.
Experts and economists, however, expressed scepticism about the higher economic growth calculated by BBS for the fiscal year, saying that the growth was not consistent with the performance of other economic indicators.
Growth in private sector investment, private sector credit flow, exports and job creation was not high enough to support 7.86 per cent growth in the year, they said.
Planning minister AHM Mustafa Kamal on Tuesday disclosed the revised GDP calculation at a press briefing after the weekly executive committee of the National Economic Council meeting held at the NEC auditorium in Dhaka. The final calculation of the GDP growth was placed before the ECNEC meeting which was presided over by prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Kamal claimed that GDP growth went up in the final calculation on higher-than-estimated contribution of industry and services sectors.
GDP growth also maintained upward trend as there was no major natural calamities in the country in the period, he said.
GDP growth was 7.28 per cent in the previous fiscal year (FY 2016-2017).
*Former interim government adviser Mirza Azizul Islam told New Age that the country could not obtain higher economic growth with the present rate of investment that was hovering at around 31 per cent of GDP.*
*He said that many economic indicators including private sector investment, private sector credit growth, export growth and some other indicators were not supportive of the calculated growth.*
According to BBS, all the three sectors — agriculture, industry and services — grew faster than the provisional estimation.
Agricultural sector finally grew by 4.19 per cent while industry grew by 12.06 per cent and services by 6.39 per cent.
BBS’s initial growth projection was 3.06 per cent, 11.99 per cent and 6.33 per cent for agriculture, industry and services respectively.
The contribution of agriculture, industry and services sectors stood at 13.82 per cent, 30.17 per cent and 56 per cent respectively in the year.
Both service sector growth rate and contribution to GDP declined in the year, which were 6.69 per cent and 56.50 per cent respectively in FY17.
The share of investment as percentage of GDP, however, revised downward to 31.23 per cent in the final calculation from that of 31.47 per cent estimated initially mainly because of lower public investment.
Private investment ratio to GDP reached 23.26 per cent from 23.25 per cent while public investment was downsized to 7.97 per cent from initial 8.22 per cent, according to the BBS data.
The new per capita income reached $1,751 or Tk 1,43,789 in the year, one dollar less than the provisional estimation. The figure was $ 1,610 in FY17.
The size of the country’s GDP stood at $274.11 billion in the year.
BBS also said that the rate of poverty declined to 21.8 per cent in 2018 in the country from 23.1 per cent in 2017.
On the other hand, extreme poverty rate also dropped to 11.3 per cent in 2018 from 12.1 per cent a year ago.
National savings ratio to GDP was 27.42 per cent in FY18, the data showed.
*Former Bangladesh Bank governor Salehuddin Ahmed said that there was no doubt about higher economic growth in the country in the year but 7.86 per cent was difficult as private investment grew marginally, export growth was paltry and private sector credit flow declined in the year.*
Though overall investment somewhat increased, it might not transform into an increase in production and productive capacity, he said.
He also expressed disappointment over distribution of economic growth as mass people were not getting the benefits of the growth.
Growth rate is just a number and it is nothing about ensuring equity, equal distribution of benefits of development and remove income inequality, he said.
‘So, it will not be wise to put unconditional belief on growth rate,’ he added.









Bangladesh's GDP grew by record 7.86pc in FY18, experts doubt


Bangladesh’s gross domestic product growth hit record 7.86 per cent, beating the provisional estimation by 0.21 percentage points, in the past fiscal year of 2017-2018, according to the final calculation done by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics....




www.newagebd.net


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## Destranator

*Estimation of GDP in Bangladesh needs a reform*
FE Team | Published: August 17, 2020 21:31:48 | Updated: August 19, 2020 21:53:24




Estimation of GDP in Bangladesh needs a reform

Over the past decade, growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been at the centre of attention of economic policy discourse in Bangladesh. However, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has also been emphasising that qualitative and distributive aspects of GDP growth are no less important than mere growth figures. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, the importance of credible estimates of GDP has assumed heightened importance as it has significant implications for economic policymaking at a crucial time. The estimates of GDP have been under scrutiny for past several years due to its apparent disjuncture with several other key macroeconomic and development correlates including private sector credit, revenue mobilisation, import payments for capital machineries, energy consumption, export receipts, employment generation etc. The recent release of GDP estimates for FY20 has sparked another fresh round of discussions and debates.
THE EARLY PROJECTIONS AND GROWTH DEBATE: In view of the ramification of the pandemic for the Bangladesh economy in FY20, there was a general consensus among experts and practitioners that the GDP growth rate will be significantly lower than the planned target of 8.20 per cent. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) prediction of 5.20 per cent was an outlier when compared to other independent estimates - CPD had earlier estimated that GDP growth in FY20 will not be more than 2.50 per cent. The World Bank in April this year projected that GDP growth would range 2.0 per cent to 3.0 per cent, while IMF projected 3.80 per cent in June this year. Surprisingly, the provisional estimates of GDP growth (5.24 per cent) has turned out to be very close to MoF prediction of 5.20 per cent presented at the budget time! There is no doubt that all economic activities of the country were affected prominently during the almost two-month long 'general holiday period', at varying degrees concerning all sectors of the economy. CPD, while estimating its growth projection, identified five sectors which were hit hardest. These are: manufacturing; construction; hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; and community, social and personal services. The anecdotal information and trends observed since the outbreak of the pandemic would also confirm this.
IS BANGLADESH AN OUTLIER?: Comparing official GDP growth rate figures across countries remains a difficult task for several reasons. The fiscal year is often different for different country. Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy was felt at somewhat different times in different countries. The pre-conditions (in terms of economic performance) varied across countries. However, almost all countries have experienced deceleration, in varying degrees, in terms of growth performance. For many countries, GDP has indeed shrunk (e.g. UK, USA, Singapore etc.). Pakistan in FY2020 (July-June) is likely to register (-) 0.40 per cent GDP growth. The economy of Vietnam during Jan-Jun of 2020 was able to grow by only 1.81 per cent. India has not released its Apr-Jun quarter GDP estimates yet, but a significant contraction is apprehended. In view of the above, even if the Bangladesh economy could grow by 2.50 per cent in FY20 (as projected by CPD), it is likely to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
A DEEP DIVE INTO THE BBS PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES: Let us recall the preamble of GDP estimates by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The provisional estimates of GDP (national accounts) are usually released in May of a fiscal year. At the time of these estimates, at best eight to nine months' data are available. BBS did not prepare the estimates in May this year when the country was under the 'general holiday' in view of the pandemic. On August 10, 2020, the BBS released the provisional estimates on its website. According to follow-up news reports, the BBS has considered data for about nine months (July 2019-March 2020). This implies that the provisional GDP estimates could not capture the significant adverse impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.




Nevertheless, 5.24 per cent GDP growth in FY20, as estimated by the BBS, is the lowest in last decade. On the other hand, in view of the current context, it is surprisingly high! Indeed, the fall in industries sector growth rate contributed significantly to the fall in GDP growth rate. Resilience of agriculture and services sectors are perhaps more by design! Crops and horticulture experienced more drastic fall. It is important to remember that production data for Aus and perhaps also Aman were considered for the crop sector, and not Boro which is the major crop. While the manufacturing sector was struggling even before the pandemic struck, the fall in growth rate for construction sector was not significant. It was surprising to see that growth of the services sector, against all odds, did not fall by any significant margin. The more affected sectors as identified by CPD (i.e. hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; and community, social and personal services) did not experience any major fall in growth. It needs to be asked if the resilience of the services sectors as depicted above, is 'resilient' by design. The growth estimates for these sectors may not align with what happened in the performance of the real economy.
Curiously, even during a year of pandemic, private investment registered a notable growth. Private investment as a share of GDP increased to 23.63 per cent in FY20 from 23.54 per cent in FY19 - which required a nominal growth of 10.40 per cent. It may be recalled that MoF (during budget) predicted that private investment as a share of GDP was predicted to decline to 12.70 per cent in FY20. A rise in private investment is indeed unexpected when the entrepreneurs have been struggling to keep the existing production capacity fully operational. Public investment as a share of GDP, on the other hand, also increased to 8.12 per cent in FY20 from 8.03 per cent in FY19. Overall, investment as a share of GDP increased to 31.75 per cent in FY20 from 31.57 per cent in FY19. On the other hand, this implied a significant deterioration in productivity. The Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR), in a single year has risen to 6.06 in FY20 (the highest since FY02) from 3.87 in FY19 indicating falling productivity of capital.
DO GDP ESTIMATES CONSIDER REAL TIME CREDIBLE DATA: To understand this paradox, one would need the estimation methodology and data sources used for GDP estimation. As a matter of fact, other than industries sector (except for construction) and crop sector, GDP estimates for majority of the sectors do not consider real time credible data. Indeed, more than half of the provisional GDP estimates are not based on credible real time data. This is also reflected when the variations of sectoral GDP growth rates are examined. A simple standard deviation test for sectoral GDP growth rates shows that growth rate of services sector was by far the most stable. It may not be due to the resilience of the subsectors; rather it originated from the weaknesses in the estimation process.
There is a serious need to take urgent steps to address the weaknesses in the data for estimating a credible GDP growth. A number of surveys will need to be conducted on a regular basis. For example: (i) Annual Establishment & Institution Survey (AEIS); (ii) Private commercial mechanized transport survey; (iii) Survey of Private Education Services in Bangladesh; (iv)Survey of Private Health Establishments; (v) Survey of Non-profit Institutions Serving Households; (vi) Farm Forest Surveys. These surveys have not been conducted over the last decade. There is a need to improve data quality from a number of government agencies-- for example, Livestock Department, Directorate of Fisheries etc.
WHAT DO UPDATED TRENDS IN PROXY INDICATORS TELL US: The provisional estimates of GDP significantly rely on budget data from the government - a large part of the budgetary allocations remains unspent and undermines GDP data quality. While the GDP estimates could not capture the updated data, a short review of recent trends (particularly during the last quarter of FY2020) of some proxy indicators may be useful.
• Total export declined by (-) 51.2 per cent during Apr-Jun quarter of FY20. Quantum index of industrial production (QIIP) for large and medium manufacturing industries declined by (-) 24.50 per cent in April 2020.
• Only 76.80 per cent of original ADP could be spent (80.70 per cent of RADP) in FY20 according to IMED data - in nominal terms (-) 1.70 per cent lower than last year.
• Again, private sector credit recorded 8.60 per cent growth as of June 2020 - the lowest in the decade.
• Rural credit in Jul-May of FY20 dropped by 12.0 per cent; while, SME loan declined in Jul-Mar by 1.30 per cent. Term loan increased by on 4.6 per cent during Jul-Mar period.
• Net FDI, in FY2020, declined by (-) 42.5 per cent.
• In FY2020, import of capital machinery declined by (-) 33.80 per cent.
• Import of other key capital-intensive items also declined sharply [Clinker: (-) 11.60 per cent; Iron, steel & other base metals: (-) 4.8 per cent; other capital goods: (-) 18.1 per cent].
• In April, total revenue collection declined by (-) 34.6 per cent. Finally, according to MoF data, only 50.40 per cent of the allocated budget could be spent up to April.
HOW USEFUL IS THE PROVISIONAL GDP ESTIMATES FOR POLICYMAKING: The provisional estimates of GDP did not capture the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on Bangladesh economy in FY20. The provisional estimates of GDP should not inform the policymaking in the coming months as it does not provide a reliable assessment about the actual health of the economy. The provisional estimates of GDP indicate that Bangladesh economy was already losing its steam even before the Covid-19 pandemic. The weaknesses in GDP estimation and dearth of real-time data were exposed by the GDP estimates in the time of pandemic when there is a heightened need for credible real time data. The government's own initiatives in the form of stimulus packages and expanded safety net programmes do not tally with the GDP growth narrative.
The government must appreciate the value of data integrity. Policymakers need to acknowledge that credible and up-to-date data provides a strong foundation for sound and effective policymaking. The government/BBS should take urgent steps to generate credible and updated data. The final GDP estimates should be informed by the reality on the ground. BBS must be adequately strengthened with both financial and non-financial resources to conduct required surveys annually (even if it is on a limited scale) so that GDP estimates are credible. BBS should also scrutinise data provided by other government agencies to ensure the quality of the data used for GDP estimations, as it is mandated by the Statistics Act, 2013.
It is now critical to take necessary steps to conduct GDP estimation on a quarterly basis and at the subnational level - this will provide more transparency and can guide the policymakers in real times. BBS should make background data and calculation available for GDP and other indicators for transparency and better accountability.
The need for updated data should not be limited to GDP estimations - the fiscal budgetary data should be assessed at the earliest to review the national budget. Data should be adequately prioritised in view of the Covid-19 pandemic, GDP should not be 'the indicator' to understand the health of the economy and monitor the path of recovery. The government should take immediate steps to revive Annual (if not quarterly) Labour Force Survey and expedite the Household Income and Expenditure Survey to assess the employment and poverty (and inequality) situation. Indeed, the recovery performance of the economy should be measured in terms of employment, poverty and inequality trends. Disaggregated data should be prioritised in view of attaining the SDGs aspiration of 'leave no one behind'.
Independence of the BBS is critical for restoring credibility of official data. BBS should be endowed with adequate financial resources to undertake the needed tasks. CPD, to this end, reiterates its earlier suggestion to constitute an Independent Statistical Commission to guide and steer the transition towards greater data reliability and integrity.
_The write-up is prepared on the basis of 'Provisional Estimates of GDP Growth in FY2020: CPD's Reaction' presented on virtual press briefing on August 16, 2020. [www.cpd.org.bd]









Estimation of GDP in Bangladesh needs a reform


Over the past decade, growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been at the centre of attention of economic policy discourse in Bangladesh. However, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has also been emphasising that qualitative and distributive aspects of GDP growth are no less important...




www.thefinancialexpress.com.bd




_


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## Indos

@Destranator bro, you need to make paragraphs to make it readable and please make a space between paragraphs

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## Destranator

Indos said:


> @Destranator bro, you need to make paragraphs to make it readable and please make a space between paragraphs


They are readable at my end on phone browser. What platform are you using?


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## Black_cats

Indos said:


> @Destranator bro, you need to make paragraphs to make it readable and please make a space between paragraphs



Ignore him not even something to be discussed. Already discussed number of times in the forum. His alike @idune posted these threads and articles so many times.

Just letting him to continue as much as he wants after that this thread will be closed as similar threads already exists and enough discussion is already done.

He is upset about this thread that's why created it.









Fast track mega projects to contribute 3-4pc to GDP growth


Fast track mega projects to contribute 3-4pc to GDP growth https://www.bssnews.net/?p=508463 By Syed Shukur Ali Shuvo DHAKA, Dec 31, 2020 (BSS) – The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expecting to increase by 3 to 4 percent once the fast track and mega projects of the government are...



defence.pk

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> *WB questions government data about GDP growth*
> FE Online Report | Published: April 09, 2018 18:29:15 | Updated: April 11, 2018 18:44:02
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The World Bank (WB) on Monday has expressed doubts about the Bangladesh’s 7.65 per cent GDP growth projection for the current fiscal raising questions regarding some government data.
> The Washington-based lender also said the GDP growth is expected to be within the range of 6.5 to 6.6 per cent in the medium term of the current fiscal.
> “The robust growth for the current fiscal is doubtful as its correlation with some government statistics is not matched,” said WB Lead Economist Dr Zahid Hussain during a presentation of the Bangladesh Development Update Dhaka.
> Hussain raised questions about the government data of the higher manufacturing growth, lower service sector growth compared to its higher job creation, production capacity of the industrial sector, stagnant investment, labour income growth and remittance growth, volatile food and non-food inflation data.
> The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has recently revealed that Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at 7.65 per cent in FY18, which is even higher than its target of 7.5 per cent.
> “How this higher growth is furnished with this production capacity in the industrial sector we are noticing over the years? It is only be possible when the production capacity will picked up. But question is --how the capacity has climbed within a year?” Dr Hussain questioned.
> He said the manufacturing sector has been estimated to grow faster this year than last year although the private sector investment is observed almost stagnant over the years.
> The Lead Economists said the growth is shown mainly based on the expansion of the consumer’s demand or consumption which is not in sync with government’s relevant data.
> “But we do not see any leap in any of the cases. The growth of employment was at 2.2 per cent while the labour income was at 2.7 per cent in 2017,” he added.
> “Remittance inflows have recovered. Yet, the level of remittance still remains 2.7 per cent less than in July-march of fiscal year 2015-16,” he said.
> He asked an explanation or clarification on the government data of projected growth for FY18.
> WB Country Director Qimiao Fan was present among others at the function in Dhaka.
> 
> kabirhumayan10@gmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WB questions government data about GDP growth
> 
> 
> The World Bank (WB) on Monday has expressed doubts about the Bangladesh’s 7.65 per cent GDP growth projection for the current fiscal raising questions regarding some government data. The Washington-based lender also said the GDP growth is expected to be within the range of 6.5 to 6.6 per cent in...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thefinancialexpress.com.bd



@Destranator bhai I realize that there may be some book cooking going on, but I'd question the degree on which these 'investigative' pieces suggest they are occurring. 

I mean these stories are all from three years ago (2018). If this was such a big deal, then why wasn't more written about this?


Destranator said:


> They are readable at my end on phone browser. What platform are you using?



I'm using a Windows 10 OS, and I don't see paragraphs either.

I guess phones show paragraphs differently.

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> They are readable at my end on phone browser. What platform are you using?



PC


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## Destranator

Bilal9 said:


> @Destranator bhai I realize that there may be some book cooking going on, but I'd question the degree on which these 'investigative' pieces suggest they are occurring.
> 
> I mean these stories are all from three years ago (2018). If this was such a big deal, then why wasn't more written about this?


Not all are from 2018. Please read from the original post.

There are many articles on this topic. I am sticking to the most reputable experts and sources only. I have been reading such articles on print media for decades; unfortunately not all of them are archived online.

The cooking by BBS is not a new phenomenon as previous governments have done the same. I hope there is internvention somewhere to give BBS the required autonomy.


Indos said:


> PC


I will see what I can do when I am on my PC.

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> Anyone who travels around Bangladesh can tell the significant economic development that has taken place in the last 10 years. The question here is not whether Bangladesh is developing, the question is how accurate the GDP stats are.
> 
> 
> *GDP growth doubted, quality questioned*
> Jasim Uddin | Published: 00:23, Jun 10,2019 | Updated: 00:53, Jun 10,2019
> 
> 
> Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing financial year 2018-19 raising doubt and questions among experts, economists and research bodies.
> Over the past decade Bangladesh has registered one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world but experts and economists continue to doubt the figures and sources of growth questioning the authenticity of the government estimation.
> Experts and research organisations said that Bangladesh economy was expected to grow at a higher rate but not so high as the government estimated as the primary economic growth drivers and other indicators did not match the estimated rate.
> They said that the quality of GDP growth also remained a big concern as poverty reduction and job creation rates were not aligned with the growth rate while inequality kept rising.
> Centre for Policy Dialogue on April 23 in a report on the first 100 days of the government doubted the government’s provisional estimate of 8.13 per cent GDP growth for FY19, citing mismatch between the projected growth rate and various economic performance indicators.
> The think tank distinguished fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya said that the government-estimated GDP growth was not reflected in various economic indicators, including private investment, private-sector credit growth, capital machinery import, revenue collection and employment generation.
> The overall productivity also did not increase while income inequality widened, he said.
> The report said that some manufacturing sectors like leather and related products registered very high growth without a commensurate reflection in the export performance.
> The tax to GDP ratio and private sector credit also registered lower growth in FY19 compared with FY18, it added.
> The GDP deflator growth (4.23 per cent) was also estimated significantly lower than the inflation rate (5.48 per cent as of March 2019), it said.
> The think tank analysis showed that the economy was going through a jobless growth phase as the employment rate decreased by 0.95 percentage points in 2010-2017 compared to 2000-2010.
> It demanded disclosure of all data based on which the growth was estimated for the sake of transparency of the estimation.
> Policy Research Institute executive director Ahsan H Mansur told New Age on Sunday that the country’s economy was growing at a better rate but the rate estimated by the government created questions and doubt as many economic indicators did not match the rate.
> Growth in revenue generation was very slow (7.27 per cent in the first nine months of FY19) though it should have been much higher in line with the higher GDP growth and manufacturing growth of 19.50 per cent, he said.
> Credit flow in banking sector declined to 12 per cent and businesses were not getting loan due to liquidity crisis, he mentioned.
> The rate of bankruptcy also kept rising and employment generation was not increasing at an expected rate, he said.
> In this context, the question is what the sources of growth are, he said.
> The government should be restraint about GDP growth rate in coming years and GDP growth should be well matched with economic reality, he said, adding that the GDP was not out of overall economic performance rather it was a combined outcome of overall economy.
> South Asian Network on Economic Modelling on May 9 in its quarterly review of Bangladesh economy termed the rising economic growth as conundrum and inconsistent with various indicators and the drivers of growth.
> Export and remittance are two major drivers of Bangladesh economy but high economic growth in recent years does not match sluggish growth in export and remittance, it said.
> The estimated high growth in private consumption also does not match low export and remittance growth.
> High manufacturing growth does not match low export growth and slow private investment, it said.
> The think tank, however, said that the quality of growth was a big concern.
> ‘Poverty rate has declined in the country but the growth elasticity of poverty has declined too. That means, the pace of poverty reduction is much slower than the pace of GDP growth rate,’ it said.
> Inequality is also rising despite higher growth while employment generation also becomes slower, it added.
> The obsession with the GDP growth numbers puts policymakers in the comfort zone and reform-averse, it said.
> Its executive director Selim Raihan said that policymakers should focus on whether the growth could remove poverty and inequality, and create enough employment instead of growth numbers.
> He said that private consumption grew at an unusual pace despite low growth in export and remittance inflows.
> Private investment is also falling in real terms, he said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GDP growth doubted, quality questioned
> 
> 
> Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newagebd.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One expert could be compromised, not mutiple credible experts working for various credible agencies. Stay tuned.



It is common knowledge that CPD and that founder of CPD are Indian (BJP) shills.

The only person I'd trust somewhat as unbiased is WB consultant Zahid Hussain Sir (he was a professor at NSU Banani Campus as well).

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## Destranator

Bilal9 said:


> It is common knowledge that CPD and that founder of CPD are Indian (BJP) shills.
> 
> The only person I'd trust somewhat as unbiased is WB consultant Zahid Hussain Sir (he was a professor at NSU Banani Campus as well).


Are you talking about Dr. Debapriya Bhattachariya?

Even if he was an Indian agent, it makes no sense for him to dispute stats during a BAL regime.

It is often trendy to label any Hindu who offers a differing opinion as an Indian agent so I would be careful when listening to such "critics".

I do not know if he has any connection with India but he is no longer with CPD. He is also generally respected in economic circles.


Dr. Mahfuzur Rahman and Dr. Fahmida Khatun are respected in academic circles.

It makes no sense for these two along with Zahid Hussain, Mirza Azizul Islam, Salehuddin Ahmed, etc. to all lie in unison.


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## bluesky

fallstuff said:


> Whistleblowers need to show the the evidence, as Chris Hemsworth said , " প্রমাণ দাও "


Do you want proves? The way Hasina govt is forcing us to drink WASA muddy water, the way it forces us to use Dingi Boats during waterlogging, the way Hawkers sitting on the footpaths, the way Lungiwala, Sabjiwala, Falwala, Murgiwala and Kaprawala dsisturb the passerby walking the footpaths are all proves of the very low level development of the country. 

BBS people have to falsify data in order to keep their jobs. BBS is not a BAL-appointed organ, it belongs to GoB, and this BBS has been compiling false data since its inception. 

Watch the streets of Dhaka and other towns and cities, what is the main mode of transportation? It is the 200 year old Rickshaw culture. What other proofs do you want except that some stupid here claims BD people drink 300 Taka a cup of Tea. 

Do you guys want people to believe in BBS nuisance? Go out of your hi fi apartment some times and enjoy the beauty of Dhaka living standard. Tell me about one eatery, not Hotel Radisson or any 5-star hotel, with toilet facilities in Dhaka, and then talk. It means that even a correct sewerage disposal system is not in place. 

Yet, guys like you brag about the falsified BBS GDP data to tell the world that BD has already become another Sweden!! Nonsense!! Has BD become another Switzerland or Monaco of the east without even a functional drainage, sewerage or safe drinking water system?

It is a new definition of development which is accepted and appreciated only by some of the ignorant BD people.


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## Michael Corleone

Too long to read. Can someone just say which data to rely on when it comes to bd ?


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## Destranator

Michael Corleone said:


> Too long to read. Can someone just say which data to rely on when it comes to bd ?


Better to read as much as possible to get the full picture.

GDP is calculated from scratch off field survey data by only one entity: BBS. The foreign entities (WB, IMF, etc..) are forced to rely on BBS data of past fiscal years to come up with their own forecasts for the future.

So effectively any GDP data on Bangladesh is questionable as the basis is flawed. Best we keep this in mind before we make tall claims on GDP numbers and belittle other countries going forward.

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## UKBengali

Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.

All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.

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## Destranator

UKBengali said:


> Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.
> 
> All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.


I would be surprised if the actual figure is less than 5.5-6% in a non-covid year when considering other economic indicators, improvement of infrastructure and growth of other developing countries with similar economic conditions. However, accuracy of GDP figures is absolutely vital as the inaccuracies keep building up and multiplying over the years.

8% growth without major natural resource production and despite major infrastructural bottlenecks and lack of industrial sophistication is unheard of. Had BBS not been playing foul, they would release all survey data without hesitation.


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## Indos

UKBengali said:


> Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.
> 
> All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.



Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.


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## Black_cats

Indos said:


> Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.



Bangladesh has very high import duty unlike Pakistan. Plus Bangladesh is way ahead of Pakistan be it 6% or 8%. Pakistan’s per capita GDP is around $1250 where as for Bangladesh it is $2070.

Only certain political parties in Bangladesh and their supporters try to make big fuss out of it.

Bangladesh’s recent growth of 8% only happened 1 year or 2 mostly due to internal consumption and spending on big scale projects.

Here the real question should be if it sustainable or not rather if it is true or not.

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## Destranator

Indos said:


> Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.



Car sales is not a good indicator for Bangladesh as import duties are absolutely crazy - upto 826%. Additional hefty taxes also apply.


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## Indos

Destranator said:


> Car sales is not a good indicator for Bangladesh as import duties are absolutely crazy - upto 826%. Additional hefty taxes also apply.



At least we can see the growth since 2000-2020

Here just an example of Indonesia which is actually higher than our total GDP growth but still quite understandable


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## Destranator

Indos said:


> At least we can see the growth since 2000-2020
> 
> Here just an example of Indonesia which is actually higher than our total GDP growth but still quite understandable
> 
> View attachment 702274


I am not sure whether you are familiar with the following economic term: price elasticity of demand.

Demand for personal cars is largely elastic in a poor country, meaning rise in price due to taxes will easily dissuade consumers from buying cars.
It is therefore not fair to compare car sales growth of two different countries unless the car prices are very similar.

Now if I were a political hack, I would easily jump on this opportunity and pointed at poor car sales figures and use it as evidence of poor economic growth.

Our car sales growth is terrible but it says nothing about our economic growth.

In other words, Bangladesh can genuinely grow at 8-9% despite poor car sales.

The issue with our GDP figures is that the more important economic indicators (industrial growth, FDI, private sector investment, etc.) not making sense or not aligning with GDP figures, as pointed out by experts in the articles posted.

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> I am not sure whether you are familiar with the following economic term: price elasticity of demand.
> 
> Demand for personal cars is largely elastic in a poor country, meaning rise in taxes will easily dissuade consumers from buying cars.
> It is therefore not fair to compare car sales growth of two different countries unless the car prices are very similar.
> 
> In other words, Bangladesh can genuinely grow at 8-9% despite poor car sales.
> 
> The issue is with more important indicators (industrial growth, FDI, private sector investment, etc.) not making sense or not aligning with GDP figures, as pointed out by experts in the articles posted.



This is Toyota car price, just converted into USD to see the comparison with BD. PS: Juta means Million

Fortuner for example is around 35.000 USD-49.500 USD






More list in here









Toyota Indonesia - Daftar Harga Mobil Toyota Terbaru | Oto


Lihat daftar harga mobil Toyota terbaru, promo Januari 2023, baca review redaksi, dealer. Dapatkan harga kredit Toyota terbaik hanya di oto.com




www.oto.com





But most Indonesia dont buy car in cash, but through credit.


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## UKBengali

Destranator said:


> I would be surprised if the actual figure is less than 5.5-6% in a non-covid year when considering other economic indicators, improvement of infrastructure and growth of other developing countries with similar economic conditions. However, accuracy of GDP figures is absolutely vital as the inaccuracies keep building up and multiplying over the years.
> 
> 8% growth without major natural resource production and despite major infrastructural bottlenecks and lack of industrial sophistication is unheard of. Had BBS not been playing foul, they would release all survey data without hesitation.



BD average growth last decade has been 7% and it started from a very low base in 2009 when AL came into power.
With what was happened in BD the GDP figures are credible.

The same level of growth this decade cannot happen without major export diversification though.

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## Destranator

Indos said:


> This is Toyota car price, just converted into USD to see the comparison with BD. PS: Juta means Million
> 
> Fortuner for example is around 35.000 USD-49.500 USD
> 
> View attachment 702276
> 
> 
> More list in here
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toyota Indonesia - Daftar Harga Mobil Toyota Terbaru | Oto
> 
> 
> Lihat daftar harga mobil Toyota terbaru, promo Januari 2023, baca review redaksi, dealer. Dapatkan harga kredit Toyota terbaik hanya di oto.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oto.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But most Indonesia dont buy car in cash, but through credit.



This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.

Price elasticity of demand makes a comparison of car sales growth between Indonesia and BD an invalid metric for comparing economic growth.






TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত


Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.




www.autosbangla.com






UKBengali said:


> BD average growth last decade has been 7% and it started from a very low base in 2009 when AL came into power.
> With what was happened in BD the GDP figures are credible.
> 
> The same level of growth this decade cannot happen without major export diversification though.


Look, we can't simply call figures "credible" just because the economy is growing well as there are many credible experts raising alarms.

To be absolutely clear, I am not denying economic growth but questioning GDP calculations for every year since the beginning.

Even a 1% miscalculation In nominal GDP every year massively distorts indicators (GDP in PPP, GDP per capita, tax to GDP ratio, FDI as % of GDP, poverty rate, and many more) and inflates GDP data year on year.

What we need is a massive independent audit into and recalculation of economic data collection and calculation process of BBS by a reputed international audit agency (e.g.-E&Y, PwC, KPMG, etc..) and full autonomy of BBS.


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## Indos

Destranator said:


> This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
> This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত
> 
> 
> Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.autosbangla.com



LOL 168.000 USD for Toyota Fortuner is a robbery...............

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## EasyNow

Destranator said:


> This official dealer's website does not quote prices but typically a brand new fortuner costs well in excess of BDT 10 million.
> This website quotes at BDT 13.7 million which is approx. USD 168k.
> 
> Price elasticity of demand makes a comparison of car sales growth between Indonesia and BD an invalid metric for comparing economic growth.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in BD | বর্তমান মূল্য সহ বিস্তারিত
> 
> 
> Explore TOYOTA FORTUNER CAR Price in Bangladesh, Including latest offer, full specifications, installment details, latest images and availability in Bangladesh.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.autosbangla.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Look, we can't simply call figures "credible" just because the economy is growing well as there are many credible experts raising alarms.
> 
> To be absolutely clear, I am not denying economic growth but questioning GDP calculations.
> 
> Even a 1% miscalculation In nominal GDP every year massively distorts indicators (GDP in PPP, GDP per capita, tax to GDP ratio, FDI as % of GDP, poverty rate, and many more) and inflates GDP data year on year.



Try to keep in mind, World Bank data is used all over the world by investors, lenders and the world Bank itself to make fiscal decisions regarding Bangladesh. 

The World Bank would be a fool to blindly believe everything BBS says. I think by the laws of natural survival, data that is too misleading would damage Bangladesh - which is why BBS will never go too far with.

Of course BBS data is not infallible - but the same can be said for any country. 
Some countries are more honest/accountable than others but investors make a calculated decision bearing all these things in mind - so be assured your concerns are all being accounted for.

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## Destranator

EasyNow said:


> Try to keep in mind, World Bank data is used all over the world by investors, lenders and the world Bank itself to make fiscal decisions regarding Bangladesh.
> 
> The World Bank would be a fool to blindly believe everything BBS says. I think by the laws of natural survival, data that is too misleading would damage Bangladesh - which is why BBS will never go too far with.
> 
> Of course BBS data is not infallible - but the same can be said for any country.
> Some countries are more honest/accountable than others but investors make a calculated decision bearing all these things in mind - so be assured your concerns are all being accounted for.


You are exactly right about the criticality of BBS data to WB. WB clearly does not blindly believe BBS data as they have been questioning it for decades now.

However, there is very little they can actually do about it as they do not have the resources or jurisdictions to conduct field surveys in order to re-calculate from scratch. All they do is come up with year on year forecasts for the next FY which gets swatted aside by BBS when they eventually "calculate" GDP for that FY.

Yes, there are other countries that too fudge data but this is not a valid excuse to let BBS off easy.
We cannot become a developed country with such broken institutions.


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## EasyNow

Destranator said:


> You are exactly right about the criticality of BBS data to WB. WB clearly does not blindly believe BBS data as they have been questioning it for decades now.
> 
> However, there is very little they can actually do about it as they do not have the resources or jurisdictions to conduct field surveys in order to re-calculate from scratch. All they do is come up with year on year forecasts for the next FY which gets swatted aside by BBS when they eventually "calculate" GDP for that FY.
> 
> Yes, there are other countries that too fudge data but this is not a valid excuse to let BBS off easy.
> We cannot become a developed country with such broken institutions.



Bro the people who actually rely on these stats are using them happily. BBS is doing it's job of providing lenders, investors the data they need. Now what's the point of you and me speculating that the stats are wrong - if anyone can prove it let them do so. That is how data has always been

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## Destranator

EasyNow said:


> Bro the people who actually rely on these stats are using them happily. BBS is doing it's job of providing lenders, investors the data they need. Now what's the point of you and me speculating that the stats are wrong - if anyone can prove it let them do so. That is how data has always been


As I have detailed in earlier posts, unreliable GDP data is messing with many critical economic indicators and therefore all sectors dependent on those indicators are being put at risk. No one is accepting BBS data "happily" as otherwise questions would not be raised by qualified experts.

We need to change this mindset and culture of "oh, this has always been like this" if we want to become a country to reckon with. Bangladesh can never attain top credit ratings, for example, with a broken stats department.


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## fallstuff

bluesky said:


> Do you want proves? The way Hasina govt is forcing us to drink WASA muddy water, the way it forces us to use Dingi Boats during waterlogging, the way Hawkers sitting on the footpaths, the way Lungiwala, Sabjiwala, Falwala, Murgiwala and Kaprawala dsisturb the passerby walking the footpaths are all proves of the very low level development of the country.
> 
> BBS people have to falsify data in order to keep their jobs. BBS is not a BAL-appointed organ, it belongs to GoB, and this BBS has been compiling false data since its inception.
> 
> Watch the streets of Dhaka and other towns and cities, what is the main mode of transportation? It is the 200 year old Rickshaw culture. What other proofs do you want except that some stupid here claims BD people drink 300 Taka a cup of Tea.
> 
> Do you guys want people to believe in BBS nuisance? Go out of your hi fi apartment some times and enjoy the beauty of Dhaka living standard. Tell me about one eatery, not Hotel Radisson or any 5-star hotel, with toilet facilities in Dhaka, and then talk. It means that even a correct sewerage disposal system is not in place.
> 
> Yet, guys like you brag about the falsified BBS GDP data to tell the world that BD has already become another Sweden!! Nonsense!! Has BD become another Switzerland or Monaco of the east without even a functional drainage, sewerage or safe drinking water system?
> 
> It is a new definition of development which is accepted and appreciated only by some of the ignorant BD people.



There is no need to blow a gasket over an internet forum conversation !
If Edward Snowden claimed all that he did without evidence he would not have been taken seriously. Therefore , some form of hard evidence is needed. 

Sewer lines are functioning in some form else there will be crap all over the city !
The water lines need to be upgraded as they have not been since the days the lines were installed.

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## EasyNow

Destranator said:


> As I have detailed in earlier posts, unreliable GDP data is messing with many critical economic indicators and therefore all sectors dependent on those indicators are being put at risk. No one is accepting BBS data "happily" as otherwise questions would not be raised by qualified experts.
> 
> We need to change this mindset and culture of "oh, this has always been like this" if we want to become a country to reckon with. Bangladesh can never attain top credit ratings, for example, with a broken stats department.



I don't mean "always been like this" about Bangladesh, I mean data has always been open to inspection but one has to show proof to criticize. 

In the main article, Riti says they were asked to work to a pre arranged figure - but she never did this. How can she then say others are doing it but she didn't? It's biased speculation.

Similarly Zahid Hussain says 'how does..expand so fast' again speculation. If it didn't expand he needs to prove it - isn't that fair?

With the number of haters inside and outside BD, if these people had any evidence do you think they would be quiet?

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## Destranator

EasyNow said:


> I don't mean "always been like this" about Bangladesh, I mean data has always been open to inspection but one has to show proof to criticize.
> 
> In the main article, Riti says they were asked to work to a pre arranged figure - but she never did this. How can she then say others are doing it but she didn't? It's biased speculation.
> 
> Similarly Zahid Hussain says 'how does..expand so fast' again speculation. If it didn't expand he needs to prove it - isn't that fair?
> 
> With the number of haters inside and outside BD, if these people had any evidence do you think they would be quiet?


Riti said she has seen calculations being done backwards from the beginning of her career. No reason for her to expose herself like this if she does not see valid grounds.

Zahid is a qualified economist questioning how industrial sector grew so fast statistically without matching ground reality. He is not a moron who would say such a thing if he did not notice a discrepancy.

Likes of Mirza Azizul Islam, Salwhuddin Ahmed etc.. also have nothing to gain from questioning stats.

With so many parties raising concerns, I am of the position that intervention to investigate reform, upgrade and give autonomy to BBS be done immediately while you are more keen on wasting more time and let the data become corrupt and unreliable until some Wikileaks style drama ensues where exact work outs of dodgy calculations are published to the media.

Let us just agree to disagree there.

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## fallstuff

Destranator said:


> Riti said she has seen calculations being done backwards from the beginning of her career. No reason for her to expose herself like this if she does not see valid grounds.
> 
> Zahid is a qualified economist questioning how industrial sector grew so fast statistically without matching ground reality. He is not a moron who would say such a thing if he did not notice a discrepancy.
> 
> Likes of Mirza Azizul Islam, Salwhuddin Ahmed etc.. also have nothing to gain from questioning stats.
> 
> With so many parties raising concerns, I am of the position that intervention to investigate reform, upgrade and give autonomy to BBS be done immediately while you are more keen on wasting more time and let the data become corrupt and unreliable until some Wikileaks style drama ensues where exact work outs of dodgy calculations are published to the media.
> 
> Let us just agree to disagree there.



I thought I knew people after knowing these folks for decades, then one day I am like how could these folks do such things ! I saw people do unconscionable things for money and fame. 
All in one life time !


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## Black_cats

GDP is measured based on compound rate (GDP growth + inflation). So let's say for 8% GDP growth and 5% inflation GDP growth will be 13%. If 1% real GDP growth is fake it will create 1/13 * 100% = 7.69% difference only on per capita GDP. So let's say we have a 200 USD per capita GDP increase in a year, removing 1% it will give 184.62 USD increase in per capita GDP instead which is not a big difference. Even if we remove 5-7 times or let's say 10 times of it for the last 10 years we are still having a 1900 USD per capita GDP instead of 2070 USD. This does not change the reality with the neighbors much.

I hope the discussion ends here.

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## Destranator

Someone does not even know what Gross Domestic Product is and what data feeds into it.
Desperate to shut out discussions here as it puts his millions of pointless threads opened solely for bragging about GDP to question.

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## Black_cats

This is hilarious who even can not differentiate compound gdp growth rate with how gdp is calculated and try to create a false impression 1% per capita gdp growth faking will put Bangladesh behind other neighbors and it should stop making any further projection without knowing even basic calculations.

The whole thread is just based on speculation without pointing any concrete evidence as some members even asked in this thread where data is faked. Even minor change of real gdp growth during calculation has a minor effect on total per capita gdp.

@WebMaster cam you please merge the thread with the following thread as it has nothing new to discuss or contain any concrete information that provide proof otherwise.

Same thing has been discussed in so many other threads created by @idune where one is below:









GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD


GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD Aug 16, 2020 The Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research institute, thinks that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) has now become a political 'sensitive' number to show the success of the government. Demanding the...



defence.pk





Plus creating a random thread with own interpretation and thread title is also against the forum rule.

So please also remove the thread from sticky section as well.

Thanks

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## Destranator

"Just add inflation and you have GDP".


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## Black_cats

Laughing like a clown doesn’t make anyone intelligent. Here someone talking about Real GDP growth but referencing Nominal GDP without even counting the inflation part and trying to be funny like a joker.

Due to the inflation part added minor adjustment with Real gdp doesn’t have any major impact on Nominal / Compound GDP.

It is not possible for any country to falsify Real GDP for long time without having major impact on the economy.

The entire thread is devoid of merit and opened based on speculation and violated forum rule on number of occassion.

@WebMaster can you please close the thread or merge it with existing thread on same topic where same OP also contributed.









GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD


GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD Aug 16, 2020 The Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research institute, thinks that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) has now become a political 'sensitive' number to show the success of the government. Demanding the...



defence.pk

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## bluesky

Like the distorted 3 million killed in the Liberation War, the BBS (read GoB) is also inflating the GDP figures continuously. Now, when the same GDP figures are causing BD to lose its status as an LDC and with all its privileges gone with the developed countries, the govt is begging them not to withdraw these for the next few years. Come 2026, the GoB will again beg them to do the same. 

BAL has caused the country's culture to become diluted with false propaganda and, look good one. The result is we will keep on begging the developed countries' continuous mercy.

Someone here should re-study the definition of GDP in connection with inflation. Since when inflation is part of GDP figures? Rather, it is deducted from the gross figure.

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## SpaceMan18

bluesky said:


> Like the distorted 3 million killed in the Liberation War, the BBS (read GoB) is also inflating the GDP figures continuously. Now, when the same GDP figures are causing BD to lose its status as an LDC and with all its privileges gone with the developed countries, the govt is begging them not to withdraw these for the next few years. Come 2026, the GoB will again beg them to do the same.
> 
> BAL has caused the country's culture to become diluted with false propaganda and, look good one. The result is we will keep on begging the developed countries' continuous mercy.
> 
> Someone here should re-study the definition of GDP in connection with inflation. Since when inflation is part of GDP figures? Rather, it is deducted from the gross figure.




I mean AL doesn't really give a $hit about Bangladesh anyways lol , the economy is developing idk if it's developing fast though. Either way the chances of Bangladesh becoming upper middle income country or developed country is a 50/50 chance. 

Bangladesh may have " political stability " but it's a police state like China just with less cameras. There is no freedom of speech and the police is also corrupt. Corruption is everywhere in Bangladesh and our education is decent quality and no one cares about learning anymore just grades. 

The economy is diversifying but again we need better talented students to work in these factories , and of course we can't get talented students if the education system is poor. 


Bangladesh yet can't even make it's own infrastructure which is sad , a flyover is seen as a mega project which tells a lot.

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## VikingRaider

Indos said:


> This is Toyota car price, just converted into USD to see the comparison with BD. PS: Juta means Million
> 
> Fortuner for example is around 35.000 USD-49.500 USD
> 
> View attachment 702276
> 
> 
> More list in here
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toyota Indonesia - Daftar Harga Mobil Toyota Terbaru | Oto
> 
> 
> Lihat daftar harga mobil Toyota terbaru, promo Januari 2023, baca review redaksi, dealer. Dapatkan harga kredit Toyota terbaik hanya di oto.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oto.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But most Indonesia dont buy car in cash, but through credit.


This is the car import duty in Bangladesh.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/2019/09/21/reconditioned-car-imports-take-a-nosedive-industry-people-cite-high-tariff-rising-trend-of-ridesharing-as-major-factors#:~:text=According to the NBR, importing,trade VAT on tariff value.


Perhaps our govt has a fixed mind setting and that is ,only who earn money by taking bribe or by looting people are allowed to buy an SUV!

However the decision was made by previous govt as far I can remember.

late Saifur Rahman ( finance minister) was the master mind ,if I can remember correctly!

On the other hand blood sucker MPs can buy duty free cars as VIP person .

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## Indos

SpaceMan18 said:


> I mean AL doesn't really give a $hit about Bangladesh anyways lol , the economy is developing idk if it's developing fast though. Either way the chances of Bangladesh becoming upper middle income country or developed country is a 50/50 chance.
> 
> Bangladesh may have " political stability " but it's a police state like China just with less cameras. There is no freedom of speech and the police is also corrupt. Corruption is everywhere in Bangladesh and our education is decent quality and no one cares about learning anymore just grades.
> 
> The economy is diversifying but again we need better talented students to work in these factories , and of course we can't get talented students if the education system is poor.
> 
> 
> Bangladesh yet can't even make it's own infrastructure which is sad , a flyover is seen as a mega project which tells a lot.



This data shows decline performance on Bangladesh Small and Medium size businesses. I think this data shows that Bangladesh economy is falling during 2020, some thing that is actually happening almost on all nations. Have the offcial growth rate number been published yet ?

*Among the changes reported in business environment during the period February to April 2020, Pakistan was the best performer in the region (in terms of percentage) with only 36.44% of respondents reporting a significant decline in domestic demand.*

*In comparison, 72.29% of enterprises in Bangladesh, 50% in India, 42.52% in Indonesia and 63.5% in Malaysia reported a significant drop in domestic demand. *










Pakistan ranks 3rd in govt support for SMEs | The Express Tribune


Pakistan ranks third in terms of support provided by the government to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to mitigate the impact of Covid-19, revealed the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (Smeda) on Tuesday.




tribune.com.pk





The data is collected by Asian Development Bank Institute which is quite credible

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## Destranator

Indos said:


> This data shows decline performance on Bangladesh Small and Medium size businesses. I think this data shows that Bangladesh economy is falling during 2020, some thing that is actually happening almost on all nations. Have the offcial growth rate number been published yet ?
> 
> *Among the changes reported in business environment during the period February to April 2020, Pakistan was the best performer in the region (in terms of percentage) with only 36.44% of respondents reporting a significant decline in domestic demand.*
> 
> *In comparison, 72.29% of enterprises in Bangladesh, 50% in India, 42.52% in Indonesia and 63.5% in Malaysia reported a significant drop in domestic demand. *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pakistan ranks 3rd in govt support for SMEs | The Express Tribune
> 
> 
> Pakistan ranks third in terms of support provided by the government to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to mitigate the impact of Covid-19, revealed the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (Smeda) on Tuesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tribune.com.pk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The data is collected by Asian Development Bank Institute which is quite credible


The SMEs need to get their act together and stop letting BBS down.

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## Destranator

*Mr. Finance Minister, balance the sum please*
By Mainul Islam
August 28, 2020 at 7:58 AM

There's a heated debate on the GDP growth rate that the government declared for the 2019-20 fiscal. Quoting the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the government recently declared 5.24 per cent GDP growth in FY2019-20. *Experts rather vociferously said this unbelievable rate of GDP was ‘manufactured’ in order to show the economic fallout of novel coronavirus pandemic was less due to the unprecedented disaster in the last five and half months from 17 March.*
Also Read: So what is the mystery of Bangladesh's success?
The experts considered the GDP growth a tall tale, especially because of the 'magic' in the first eight and half months of the fiscal year that apparently upturned all the negative effects on an economy that had almost come to a halt in the last three and half months. There is another reason for this disbelief: the finance minister had allegedly inflated the growth rates when he was planning minister. BBS works under the planning ministry.
The five components of GDP are, consumption, investment, government spending, exports and imports. All these components were hit hard in the last three and half months of 2019-20 fiscal, statistics provided by the government said. The existence of most of the large, small and medium productive establishments of the country was at stake because of the slump in macro-level consumption in that time. *The purchasing power of 90 per cent of the people shrunk and thousands lost their jobs. Almost 40 per cent of the people in the country are below poverty line now.*
*Also Read: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics lags behind in stats*
*It is the government that said private investment has declined to 12 per cent of the total GDP in 2019-20 from 24 per cent in the previous fiscal year. The government has also acknowledged that revenue earnings were were Tk 840 billion less than the estimated sum in the 2019-20 budget. The Annual Development Programme (ADP) expenditure of that fiscal year was 80 per cent of the revised ADP, which is generally around 90-95 per cent, the government admitted.*
Also Read: Doubt over GDP growth not illogical
*The government further said export revenue in that fiscal was 25 per cent less than target. The amount was $6.86 billion less than the previous year. The import expenditure also declined but a lot less than the export earnings. Then by what magic did all these sector-wise disasters not affect the GDP growth? *Mr. Finance Minister, will balance the sum please?
Also Read: How true are the statements of the minister and the adviser?
The think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), in an online press conference, claimed that according to their calculations, the GDP growth rate of Bangladesh in 2019-20 fiscal was 2.5 per cent. According to them, the government’s declaration of GDP growth rate as 5.24 per cent has turned it into a ‘political number’, which was unwarranted.
Also Read: CPD uses us as raw material: Finance minister
Finance minister AHM Mustafa Kamal termed CPD’s GDP calculation as a ‘presumption’ and questioned how CPD came up with their alternative GDP rate. He said CPD uses BBS statistics as ‘raw material’. It does not have any separate process of collecting data. Then, he asked, how did they reach that conclusion?
It would benefit the nation if CPD responded to the finance minister's challenge and clarified their alternative statistics in detail. I strongly believe, CPD would be able to prove that the 5.24 per cent GDP growth rate was the result of ‘data doctoring’ at the behest of the government, if it presents an analysis of BBS' sector-wise statistics. Bangladesh is highly praised around the world for its GDP growth. That is why politically motivated data doctoring of GDP growth rates should be considered unnecessary and counter-productive.
Also Read: BBS data don’t reflect reality: CPD
GDP growth of all the countries has declined due to the coronavirus pandemic. Many countries have even experienced negative growth rates. Would it be believable that only Bangladesh was not affected badly by this pandemic?
As it is, the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) indirectly accuses all governments of Bangladesh of data doctoring. For long, World Bank, IMF and many other UN organisations do not consider the government-announced GDP growth as reliable. It is general knowledge that local and foreign institutions think other ‘vital statistics’ the BBS publishes are also increased and decreased at will. This doubt is not without basis. There are several instances of such manipulations:
Also Read: GDP decided first, calculations done later
1. The government shows the total population of Bangladesh as less than actual. As a result, the population growth rate has been decreased to 1.3 per cent. According to UNFPA, the rate is 1.42 per cent.
2. The per capita GDP could be increased artificially if the total nominal GDP is deducted by the ‘smaller number of population’. Recently, the government has claimed that per capita income of Bangladesh has risen from $1909 to $2064 on 30 June 2020.
3. The rate of inflation is shown less so that the real per capita GDP could be increased while calculating real GDP from the nominal GDP.
4. The government inflates the literacy rate, which the UNDP does not think credible enough for the Human Development Index.
Also Read: Bangladesh per capita income crosses $2,000
Politics has made such practice deep-rooted among almost all the countries of the third world. During the ‘Decade of Progress’ of the autocrat Ayub Khan in Pakistan times, the rate of GDP growth of erstwhile East Pakistan used to be shown as 4-5 per cent every year. Could that hide the truth that East Pakistan was deprived like a colonial state? There is a saying in English: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.'
Also Read: WB forecasts 1.6pc growth for Bangladesh
This suggests the problem of data doctoring is a very old and an oft-practiced habit. This ‘political data doctoring’ is the greatest hindrance to developing a reliable government statistics organisation in the third world countries.
Also Read: Pollution, death and GDP, everything increases
Since the Second World War, developing and least developed countries got a huge amount of loans or grants from the United Nations, World Bank and other donor agencies for capacity building. But the money was wasted in the name of modernising the statistics system of the countries just because they aimed at the political gains of their governments.
Also Read: Bangladesh's GDP growth to decrease to 2pc: IMF
There is no doubt that the institutional capacity of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has increased a lot in the last 49 years, thanks to foreign loans and aid. But BBS will never develop into a reliable statistics institution if this practice of data doctoring is not scrapped. Do our rulers realise this?
_** Mainul Islam is an economist and former professor of economics at the University of Chittagong. This piece, originally published in the print edition of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Shameem Reza*_









Mr. Finance Minister, balance the sum please


The experts considered the GDP growth a tall tale, especially because of the 'magic' in the first eight and half months of the fiscal year that apparently upturned all the negative effects on an economy that had almost come to a halt in the last three and half months.




en.prothomalo.com


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## Destranator

*The puzzle of hiding data*

 
Syed Basher
On a recent visit to Bangladesh, noted economist Nurul Islam voiced his concerns about the quality of the national statistics (data) of Bangladesh. Like the quality of some basic food items in Bangladesh, our data quality, too, is questionable. I would like to add another dimension to this subject: lack of access to public data, which shows the shortsightedness of our data providers, who are also depriving Bangladesh of the benefits of rigorous scientific research.
Let me give an example to illustrate the point. Suppose you want to conduct scientific research on the inflation dynamics in Bangladesh. Since the inflation data is published by the Bureau of Bangladesh Statistics (BBS), you visit its website and immediately discover that you can only get 3-4 years of data. Often this data is not provided in a spreadsheet, so you will have to collect it on your own and create your own spreadsheet. Any researcher would know that one cannot do much with only 3-4 years of data, even though inflation data is available at a monthly frequency.
​Of course, you can visit the BBS office to manually collect data from past years from various published reports, assuming that you would find the reports in a single place sorted in ascending yearly order. I am also assuming that you will not have to visit the BBS office multiple times to get your desired data, amid the crazy traffic of Dhaka.
If the prospect of a physical journey seems daunting to you, I have an easy solution for you! You can collect the inflation data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database, which provides monthly consumer price index and inflation data for Bangladesh from 1993 to the present. Although the IMF data is usually available through a subscription, it is freely available for selected developing countries including Bangladesh. But the irony is, the IMF takes the data from BBS, who has the sole proprietorship of this data. Why can't the BBS make the data available on its website then? This is certainly not confidential; otherwise we would not be able to get them on the IMF website anyway.
This reveals a peculiar mentality of our national data providers. Why can't they share the data with Bangladeshis who have a rightful claim on it, when they can share the same with institutions such as the IMF? The problem is not limited to the BBS only. One faces a similar challenge in getting monetary data, for example, from the Bangladesh Bank (BB). Although in many ways, the accessibility and availability of macroeconomic data from Bangladesh Bank are relatively better than the BBS, it too falls short of expectations. The bottom-line is: the websites of public institutions in Bangladesh do not have long-term data archiving options to help researchers looking for macroeconomic statistics.
But this data is often available on the websites of the IMF or the World Bank. The World Bank deserves praise for making its flagship database, the World Development Indicator, open to everyone. Our national data providers (BBS, BB) routinely supply macroeconomic data to these donor agencies but when it comes to sharing the same data with the public, they seem to have a problem. This, in my view, exposes the colonial mentality of the leadership of our public institutions.
Let's look at the benefits of making data open to the public. Suppose a doctoral student at a US university is writing her dissertation on an economic issue of Bangladesh, and if the required data is available on a BBS website, she can conveniently access it. The net result is that Bangladesh can benefit from new scientific research financed by the US taxpayers' money. Now multiply this gain by any number you like, because uncountable researchers from all corners of the world can now exploit this newly available data for their research purpose. All these benefits come at a low cost, thanks to the digital revolution.
Let me share a personal anecdote here. When I was working as a research economist at Qatar Central Bank, on many occasions, I asked my Arab audience to think why the Bank of Israel makes all their data available online for free, when information is highly guarded in Israel. Of course, the management of the bank is aware of the enormous benefits of open data, while its Arab counterparts still treat national data as a state secret. Although, one may be surprised to know that among the twenty-plus Arab countries, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, the central bank of Saudi Arabia, offers an impressive annual database on the Saudi Arabian economy. Even more surprisingly, the flashy United Arab Emirates scores poorly in this regard. 
Various government agencies in Bangladesh collect and maintain a lot of data. But these offices do not see the benefits in making it open to the world. In this connection, I think the data providers should be more sympathetic to the students who often face a difficult situation in obtaining the information they need. The citizens are the real owners of the national data, so more attention should be paid to improve data accessibility. Bangladesh cannot always afford to hire world-class researchers, but it can at least act wisely to make the data open to the public and enjoy the benefits of free scholarly research. All it needs is a change of mindset.
_*Syed Basher is an associate professor of economics at East West University. His work can be viewed at www.syedbasher.org.*_









The puzzle of hiding data


Suppose a doctoral student at a US university is writing her dissertation on an economic issue of Bangladesh, and if the required data is available on a BBS website, she can conveniently access it. The net result is that Bangladesh can benefit from new scientific research financed by the US...




www.thedailystar.net

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> The SMEs need to get their act together and stop letting BBS down.



Lot of folks did not get your joke. 


Destranator said:


> *The puzzle of hiding data*
> 
> 
> Syed Basher
> On a recent visit to Bangladesh, noted economist Nurul Islam voiced his concerns about the quality of the national statistics (data) of Bangladesh. Like the quality of some basic food items in Bangladesh, our data quality, too, is questionable. I would like to add another dimension to this subject: lack of access to public data, which shows the shortsightedness of our data providers, who are also depriving Bangladesh of the benefits of rigorous scientific research.
> Let me give an example to illustrate the point. Suppose you want to conduct scientific research on the inflation dynamics in Bangladesh. Since the inflation data is published by the Bureau of Bangladesh Statistics (BBS), you visit its website and immediately discover that you can only get 3-4 years of data. Often this data is not provided in a spreadsheet, so you will have to collect it on your own and create your own spreadsheet. Any researcher would know that one cannot do much with only 3-4 years of data, even though inflation data is available at a monthly frequency.
> ​Of course, you can visit the BBS office to manually collect data from past years from various published reports, assuming that you would find the reports in a single place sorted in ascending yearly order. I am also assuming that you will not have to visit the BBS office multiple times to get your desired data, amid the crazy traffic of Dhaka.
> If the prospect of a physical journey seems daunting to you, I have an easy solution for you! You can collect the inflation data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database, which provides monthly consumer price index and inflation data for Bangladesh from 1993 to the present. Although the IMF data is usually available through a subscription, it is freely available for selected developing countries including Bangladesh. But the irony is, the IMF takes the data from BBS, who has the sole proprietorship of this data. Why can't the BBS make the data available on its website then? This is certainly not confidential; otherwise we would not be able to get them on the IMF website anyway.
> This reveals a peculiar mentality of our national data providers. Why can't they share the data with Bangladeshis who have a rightful claim on it, when they can share the same with institutions such as the IMF? The problem is not limited to the BBS only. One faces a similar challenge in getting monetary data, for example, from the Bangladesh Bank (BB). Although in many ways, the accessibility and availability of macroeconomic data from Bangladesh Bank are relatively better than the BBS, it too falls short of expectations. The bottom-line is: the websites of public institutions in Bangladesh do not have long-term data archiving options to help researchers looking for macroeconomic statistics.
> But this data is often available on the websites of the IMF or the World Bank. The World Bank deserves praise for making its flagship database, the World Development Indicator, open to everyone. Our national data providers (BBS, BB) routinely supply macroeconomic data to these donor agencies but when it comes to sharing the same data with the public, they seem to have a problem. This, in my view, exposes the colonial mentality of the leadership of our public institutions.
> Let's look at the benefits of making data open to the public. Suppose a doctoral student at a US university is writing her dissertation on an economic issue of Bangladesh, and if the required data is available on a BBS website, she can conveniently access it. The net result is that Bangladesh can benefit from new scientific research financed by the US taxpayers' money. Now multiply this gain by any number you like, because uncountable researchers from all corners of the world can now exploit this newly available data for their research purpose. All these benefits come at a low cost, thanks to the digital revolution.
> Let me share a personal anecdote here. When I was working as a research economist at Qatar Central Bank, on many occasions, I asked my Arab audience to think why the Bank of Israel makes all their data available online for free, when information is highly guarded in Israel. Of course, the management of the bank is aware of the enormous benefits of open data, while its Arab counterparts still treat national data as a state secret. Although, one may be surprised to know that among the twenty-plus Arab countries, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, the central bank of Saudi Arabia, offers an impressive annual database on the Saudi Arabian economy. Even more surprisingly, the flashy United Arab Emirates scores poorly in this regard.
> Various government agencies in Bangladesh collect and maintain a lot of data. But these offices do not see the benefits in making it open to the world. In this connection, I think the data providers should be more sympathetic to the students who often face a difficult situation in obtaining the information they need. The citizens are the real owners of the national data, so more attention should be paid to improve data accessibility. Bangladesh cannot always afford to hire world-class researchers, but it can at least act wisely to make the data open to the public and enjoy the benefits of free scholarly research. All it needs is a change of mindset.
> _*Syed Basher is an associate professor of economics at East West University. His work can be viewed at www.syedbasher.org.*_
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> The puzzle of hiding data
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> Suppose a doctoral student at a US university is writing her dissertation on an economic issue of Bangladesh, and if the required data is available on a BBS website, she can conveniently access it. The net result is that Bangladesh can benefit from new scientific research financed by the US...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedailystar.net



I have a suspicion that the hiding of data by BBS comes more from incompetence than an actual desire to hide anything. You are giving them too much credit - they aren't that advanced or smart as an organization. Individuals maybe - but not the whole organization generally.


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## Destranator

*BBS fails to produce data in time
DG says bureau not independent*
Shakhawat Hossain | Published: 00:20, Jun 19,2021


The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics is facing growing criticisms for its failure to produce data timely.
The bureau has yet to compile data on lactating mothers even after the World Bank in July 2020 had withdrawn around $50 million in loans for giving cash benefits to pregnant women and mothers with children below the age of five because of the bureau’s failure to prepare the data in time.
BBS director general Mohammad Tajul Islam blamed the Covid pandemic for the delay.
He told New Age on Sunday said that they were expecting to finalise the data in August.
Former World Bank Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hussain criticised the BBS for a one-year delay in finalising the provisional data on GDP growth for the Covid-affected financial year 2019-20.
The bureau estimated 5.2 per cent GDP growth for the year in its provisional data.
*The bureau has also delayed releasing the provisional GDP growth rate for the outgoing financial year 2020-21 although it has announced that the gross national income per capita has increased to $2,227 in the year from $2,064 in FY20.
Zahid Hussain exclaimed how the BBS could calculate the GNI per capita without calculating the GDP growth rate. * 
Planning minister MA Mannan on Wednesday said that he was yet to receive the date on the provisional GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year and the final calculation of the GDP growth for FY20 from the Statistics and Informatics Division, which oversees BBS activities.
BBS director general Tajul Islam said that they had already submitted the data on the GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year to the Statistics and Informatics Division.
He said that the bureau had long been following the modus operandi of getting approval for preparing and releasing data since it was not an independent entity.
Finance minister AHM Mustafa Kamal, who projected 6.1 per cent GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year in his budget speech in the parliament on June 3, said that delay in finalising the GDP growth data was not unusual in a crisis like Covid pandemic.
While answering a question after a meeting of the cabinet committee on government purchases on Wednesday, he told reporters that the BBS could take more time if necessary.
Mustafa Kamal served as planning minister between January 2014 and December 2018.
The BBS has also drawn flakes from economists for not having any data on people who have become poor due to Covid-induced economic shocks.
Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Mustafizur Rahman said that it was unfortunate that the BBS had no data on new poor during the pandemic.
In the absence of any government data, no specific allocation was made for the welfare of such people in the proposed budget for FY21.
Private think-tank Power and Participation Research Centre has estimated that some 2.4 crore people of Bangladesh turned new poor in 2020.
The WB in its update on Bangladesh in April said that the upper level poverty in the country had reached 30 per cent of the population due to the pandemic.
On June 8, Statistics and Informatics Division secretary Mohammad Yamin Chowdhury said that one more year would be require for knowing the number of new poor.
Mustafizur Rahman noted that the failure of the BBS to produce data timely had made many of its statistics redundant.
Economists said that the Covid pandemic had proved the necessity of reliable and timely data for successfully tackling a crisis.
They also said that the necessity of data would grow further in coming days as the government had set a target of turning the country to a developed one by 2041.
They suggested that the BBS should be made independent to meet the growing need of reliable and timely data.
BBS officials said that they always needed approval from the Statistics and Informatics Division under the planning ministry for calculating data and making them public.
They said that publication of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey had remained stopped since FY17 in the absence of approval from the division.
Planning minister MA Mannan also said that strengthening the BBS was quite necessary.
‘If it does not happen today, definitely it will happen tomorrow,’ he said.
He said that the government needed objective suggestions on the BBS.









BBS fails to produce data in time


The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics is facing growing criticisms for its failure to produce data timely. The bureau has yet to compile data on lactating...




www.newagebd.net

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> *BBS fails to produce data in time
> DG says bureau not independent*
> Shakhawat Hossain | Published: 00:20, Jun 19,2021
> 
> 
> The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics is facing growing criticisms for its failure to produce data timely.
> The bureau has yet to compile data on lactating mothers even after the World Bank in July 2020 had withdrawn around $50 million in loans for giving cash benefits to pregnant women and mothers with children below the age of five because of the bureau’s failure to prepare the data in time.
> BBS director general Mohammad Tajul Islam blamed the Covid pandemic for the delay.
> He told New Age on Sunday said that they were expecting to finalise the data in August.
> Former World Bank Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hussain criticised the BBS for a one-year delay in finalising the provisional data on GDP growth for the Covid-affected financial year 2019-20.
> The bureau estimated 5.2 per cent GDP growth for the year in its provisional data.
> *The bureau has also delayed releasing the provisional GDP growth rate for the outgoing financial year 2020-21 although it has announced that the gross national income per capita has increased to $2,227 in the year from $2,064 in FY20.
> Zahid Hussain exclaimed how the BBS could calculate the GNI per capita without calculating the GDP growth rate. *
> Planning minister MA Mannan on Wednesday said that he was yet to receive the date on the provisional GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year and the final calculation of the GDP growth for FY20 from the Statistics and Informatics Division, which oversees BBS activities.
> BBS director general Tajul Islam said that they had already submitted the data on the GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year to the Statistics and Informatics Division.
> He said that the bureau had long been following the modus operandi of getting approval for preparing and releasing data since it was not an independent entity.
> Finance minister AHM Mustafa Kamal, who projected 6.1 per cent GDP growth for the outgoing fiscal year in his budget speech in the parliament on June 3, said that delay in finalising the GDP growth data was not unusual in a crisis like Covid pandemic.
> While answering a question after a meeting of the cabinet committee on government purchases on Wednesday, he told reporters that the BBS could take more time if necessary.
> Mustafa Kamal served as planning minister between January 2014 and December 2018.
> The BBS has also drawn flakes from economists for not having any data on people who have become poor due to Covid-induced economic shocks.
> Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow Mustafizur Rahman said that it was unfortunate that the BBS had no data on new poor during the pandemic.
> In the absence of any government data, no specific allocation was made for the welfare of such people in the proposed budget for FY21.
> Private think-tank Power and Participation Research Centre has estimated that some 2.4 crore people of Bangladesh turned new poor in 2020.
> The WB in its update on Bangladesh in April said that the upper level poverty in the country had reached 30 per cent of the population due to the pandemic.
> On June 8, Statistics and Informatics Division secretary Mohammad Yamin Chowdhury said that one more year would be require for knowing the number of new poor.
> Mustafizur Rahman noted that the failure of the BBS to produce data timely had made many of its statistics redundant.
> Economists said that the Covid pandemic had proved the necessity of reliable and timely data for successfully tackling a crisis.
> They also said that the necessity of data would grow further in coming days as the government had set a target of turning the country to a developed one by 2041.
> They suggested that the BBS should be made independent to meet the growing need of reliable and timely data.
> BBS officials said that they always needed approval from the Statistics and Informatics Division under the planning ministry for calculating data and making them public.
> They said that publication of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey had remained stopped since FY17 in the absence of approval from the division.
> Planning minister MA Mannan also said that strengthening the BBS was quite necessary.
> ‘If it does not happen today, definitely it will happen tomorrow,’ he said.
> He said that the government needed objective suggestions on the BBS.
> 
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> BBS fails to produce data in time
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> The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics is facing growing criticisms for its failure to produce data timely. The bureau has yet to compile data on lactating...
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> www.newagebd.net



I have always valued the independent opinion of Dr. Zahid Hussain Sir, his expertise and acumen on this is impeccable.

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## Destranator

*Establishing an 'independent' statistical commission*
FE Team | Published: June 12, 2021 22:04:50





Representational image

That the statistics being churned out by the relevant state entity in Bangladesh are not that much trusted by the private researchers is no secret. The relevant policymakers and the government high-ups have always preferred to ignore the growing scepticism about the government data. They have not, however, openly defended the quality of government data. But incumbent planning minister M.A. Mannan on Thursday last brought an end to a long-standing indifference to the issue at the policymakers' level. The minister publicly backed the formation of an independent statistical commission, saying that some countries have constituted the same.
Neighbouring India does have a national statistical commission, which is a statutory body. The commission that works as a 'modal and empowered' body for all statistical activities monitors and enforces statistical priorities. The basic statistical activities are done by the Indian Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), an establishment identical to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
*When the country's planning minister, who is known to be a down-to-earth person, feels the necessity of forming an 'independent' statistical commission, the top policymakers of the government should have reasons to attach due importance to the issue. Local experts and private think tanks do often express their reservation about the quality of some key national statistics. Multilateral institutions having a notable stake in the development activities in Bangladesh also do not have a high opinion about the quality of BBS data. Scepticism has developed over BBS data since oftentimes those do not match the ground realities.*
The non-availability of alternative sources of data remains a problem here. The collection of data from the field level is something both expensive and extensive. The government has a statistical office at each upazila. The field offices of various government departments and agencies, when asked, also provide the BBS with data/information. No private think-tank or research organisation can employ either human resources or funds to gather data from the field. They usually carry out random surveys or limited studies that could represent the situation prevailing on the ground.
However, it all depends on the sweet will of the government whether to accept or ignore the results of such surveys/ studies. *The finance minister's refusal to accept the outcome of the recent surveys by several private research organisations on 'new poor' is a case in point.
Under the circumstances, it is important to ensure the quality of data used in preparing national plans and policies. The government might feel the temptation of manipulating data to its advantage. But such a practice undermines the national interest and contributes to deliberate overlooking of the actual needs of the people and the economy.*
So, having an independent statistical commission to ensure the generation of quality data is of utmost importance. But getting a truly independent entity in Bangladesh is pretty difficult. The performance of many regulatory and constitutional institutions could be a guide to this effect. Hopefully, the top policymakers would attach due importance to the establishment of an independent statistical commission in the greater interest of the nation.









Establishing an 'independent' statistical commission


That the statistics being churned out by the relevant state entity in Bangladesh are not that much trusted by the private researchers is no secret. The relevant policymakers and the government high-ups have always preferred to ignore the growing scepticism about the government data. They have...




thefinancialexpress.com.bd

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> *Establishing an 'independent' statistical commission*
> FE Team | Published: June 12, 2021 22:04:50
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Representational image
> 
> That the statistics being churned out by the relevant state entity in Bangladesh are not that much trusted by the private researchers is no secret. The relevant policymakers and the government high-ups have always preferred to ignore the growing scepticism about the government data. They have not, however, openly defended the quality of government data. But incumbent planning minister M.A. Mannan on Thursday last brought an end to a long-standing indifference to the issue at the policymakers' level. The minister publicly backed the formation of an independent statistical commission, saying that some countries have constituted the same.
> Neighbouring India does have a national statistical commission, which is a statutory body. The commission that works as a 'modal and empowered' body for all statistical activities monitors and enforces statistical priorities. The basic statistical activities are done by the Indian Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), an establishment identical to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
> *When the country's planning minister, who is known to be a down-to-earth person, feels the necessity of forming an 'independent' statistical commission, the top policymakers of the government should have reasons to attach due importance to the issue. Local experts and private think tanks do often express their reservation about the quality of some key national statistics. Multilateral institutions having a notable stake in the development activities in Bangladesh also do not have a high opinion about the quality of BBS data. Scepticism has developed over BBS data since oftentimes those do not match the ground realities.*
> The non-availability of alternative sources of data remains a problem here. The collection of data from the field level is something both expensive and extensive. The government has a statistical office at each upazila. The field offices of various government departments and agencies, when asked, also provide the BBS with data/information. No private think-tank or research organisation can employ either human resources or funds to gather data from the field. They usually carry out random surveys or limited studies that could represent the situation prevailing on the ground.
> However, it all depends on the sweet will of the government whether to accept or ignore the results of such surveys/ studies. *The finance minister's refusal to accept the outcome of the recent surveys by several private research organisations on 'new poor' is a case in point.
> Under the circumstances, it is important to ensure the quality of data used in preparing national plans and policies. The government might feel the temptation of manipulating data to its advantage. But such a practice undermines the national interest and contributes to deliberate overlooking of the actual needs of the people and the economy.*
> So, having an independent statistical commission to ensure the generation of quality data is of utmost importance. But getting a truly independent entity in Bangladesh is pretty difficult. The performance of many regulatory and constitutional institutions could be a guide to this effect. Hopefully, the top policymakers would attach due importance to the establishment of an independent statistical commission in the greater interest of the nation.
> 
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> 
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> 
> Establishing an 'independent' statistical commission
> 
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> That the statistics being churned out by the relevant state entity in Bangladesh are not that much trusted by the private researchers is no secret. The relevant policymakers and the government high-ups have always preferred to ignore the growing scepticism about the government data. They have...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thefinancialexpress.com.bd



This is a "pie-in-sky" sort of ask. Will never happen in Bangladesh because entire bureaucracy is politicized at the interest of every ruling party, and then those politicized bureaucrats will never displease their higher ups in the ruling party by reporting "unpalatable" economic numbers. 

More likely these bureaucrats are (Thanks to nepotism) totally inept and will report whatever the ruling party (IT cell) asks them to report.

So even if they try to prop up an "independent statistical commission" it will be in name only, and not effective at all.

So as we say in Bangladesh, "Gorai Galat". The root of the tree is rotten.

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## SpaceMan18

Bilal9 said:


> This is a "pie-in-sky" sort of ask. Will never happen in Bangladesh because entire bureaucracy is politicized at the interest of every ruling party, and then those politicized bureaucrats will never displease their higher ups in the ruling party by reporting "unpalatable" economic numbers.
> 
> More likely these bureaucrats are (Thanks to nepotism) totally inept and will report whatever the ruling party (IT cell) asks them to report.
> 
> So even if they try to prop up an "independent statistical commission" it will be in name only, and not effective at all.
> 
> So as we say in Bangladesh, "Gorai Galat". The root of the tree is rotten.




Maybe the British were right , we are indeed shit lol


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## Bilal9

SpaceMan18 said:


> Maybe the British were right , we are indeed shit lol



I don't recall the British saying that. They made a heck of a lot of money from East Bengal in sourcing animal hide, spices, fruit, coconuts, countless other agri produce, Indigo and Textiles in the 1700's before they even laid eyes on permanently setting up shop in Kolkata area, which was the soft underbelly of India at that time. Weak people and more importantly slavish low-class chamchas in Kolkata area. Willing to scheme, sell out their own country for narrow gains which they did.

Read about Omi Chand here (he was a bigger traitor than Mir Zafar),






Omichund - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





The ancestors of the Dhaka Nawabs got rich by trading animal hides and salt - before the British East India Company bestowed them the Dhaka 'Nawab' title and legitimized their rule.

Dhaka Nawabs later continued this business with the East India company after the Mughal Subahdars in Dhaka and their Murshidabad sponsors lost their influence and faded away.

You don't call your business partners names, British were too smart for that.

However - they did realize that we have neither strong leadership nor cohesive national unity like for example the Japanese (or even Omanis), and also realized that they could take advantage of it by exploiting these social fissures/fractures. And that was enough for them to Lord over us for two hundred years.

The Indians have also exploited us since 1952 (and in practice - 1971).

It is not the fault of Indians or British, it is ours, for being uneducated and choosing weak, bent knee leadership which allows this sort of thing.

If you advertise from the rooftop that you are weak and tell people you can be exploited, there will be plenty of opportunists and takers.


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## Protest_again

This ruse is going to go up soon. All these news articles about glowing Bangladesh won't help either. For all the growth story they project, FDI has been abysmal and not to mention Stock capitalization is lowest in south Asia. You cannot fool investors.

But kudos to BBS that they put out these statistics with a straight face.


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## SpaceMan18

Protest_again said:


> This ruse is going to go up soon. All these news articles about glowing Bangladesh won't help either. For all the growth story they project, FDI has been abysmal and not to mention Stock capitalization is lowest in south Asia. You cannot fool investors.
> 
> But kudos to BBS that they put out these statistics with a straight face.



Nice try Indian man , but at least we're not the one surrounded by China

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## Destranator

Yes, why don't they stay home and eat and wear BBS stats?





__ https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=243087464291740&id=109415040992317

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## leonblack08

Destranator said:


> Yes, why don't they stay home and eat and wear BBS stats?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=243087464291740&id=109415040992317



Kamal is being naive.

20 years ago, people in the small towns and villages couldn't even think of actually working for a corporate entity. But now that is possible to some extent through the presence of local and foreign companies.

Granted it is still not at the level as it should have been, but there has been improvement. Partially to govt credit but largely due to private initiative.

But local jobs still Pay peanuts compared to what one can earn abroad. This will not change Until Bangladesh becomes a developed country, this outflow of workers will always be there.

We should rather embrace it and train people to capture the skilled labor market abroad. Just like India and Philipines. Filipinos dominate the healthcare and service sectors wherever they go and send in money back home.

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## SpaceMan18

leonblack08 said:


> Kamal is being naive.
> 
> 20 years ago, people in the small towns and villages couldn't even think of actually working for a corporate entity. But now that is possible to some extent through the presence of local and foreign companies.
> 
> Granted it is still not at the level as it should have been, but there has been improvement. Partially to govt credit but largely due to private initiative.
> 
> But local jobs still Pay peanuts compared to what one can earn abroad. This will not change Until Bangladesh becomes a developed country, this outflow of workers will always be there.
> 
> We should rather embrace it and train people to capture the skilled labor market abroad. Just like India and Philipines. Filipinos dominate the healthcare and service sectors wherever they go and send in money back home.



This is why we shouldn't breed like rabbits lol , BD has no excuses to not become at least a mid tier developed nation. 

If Taiwan and Korea can do it , so can shithole BD


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## Destranator

*Old, incomplete, assumed data calls accuracy into question*
*ECONOMY*
*Jahidul Islam*
20 June, 2021, 11:05 pm
Last modified: 21 June, 2021, 01:48 pm
The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17





*On a road trip, current and clear map data is vital for reaching the destination or one might face the fate of the man who nearly married the wrong woman because Google Maps led him to the wrong address.*
When it comes to planning the future development of a country, having a set of correct economic and social data is mandatory. The data provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is used for many kinds of development decisions but it turns out, the data from them is often outdated or incomplete, or worse even, made up and it can lead to confusion at different levels.
Take the case of the rule of thumb the BBS uses to gauge reduction of poverty. It assumes that a 1% uptick in the gross domestic product (GDP) creates 0.25% of new jobs, leading to a fall in poverty rate a bit too. The BBS applied this rule to gauge the reduction in the number of poor people between FY16 and FY19.
It claimed that around 50 lakh poor people came out of poverty during the period as per its assumption on the back of the steady economic growth.
Similarly, without conducting any survey, it claimed that 74 lakh new jobs were created in the first four years of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (FY16-FY20).
Going by the BBS's own rule of thumb, job growth would be less in the pandemic year that saw a 5.24% economic growth down from 8.15% in the previous year. But the official statistical agency could not come up with any data on job growth or loss since it did not run any survey on it.
The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17.



Improper surveys yield incorrect economic, health data: WB chief economist
Besides, the last time the state-owned statistical agency conducted the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to find out the latest situation of various socio-economic indicators, including per capita poverty rate, per capita income, expenditure, savings, food intake and inequality was in FY16.
The result – the BBS cannot provide data on many socio-economic indicators. Some data it discloses are incomplete and conjectural.
Without conducting the HIES and the Labour Force Survey, the agency determined the number of employment opportunities and the poverty reduction rate, relying on some assumptions and its rules of thumb.
Many independent research agencies claim the number of pandemic-induced job losses is at least three crore, but the government does not accept those estimates.
Against this backdrop, economists have urged the BBS to determine the real number of jobs lost due to Covid-19 through a new survey.
"If a survey cannot be carried out for some reasons, we still can have a rough idea about the trend of employment and poverty based on data of the preceding two years. But we can no way gauge the exact number of job creation or the rate of poverty reduction just on assumption," said Mustafizur Rahman, economist and distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.
The number of jobs might not go up even if production outside the labour-intensive industry increases. Again, growth may not always be interpreted as reducing poverty at the same rate, he pointed out.
Noting that there is not much match between reality and data based on poor estimates, he said it would be difficult to implement a big plan based on such data.
The latest HIES survey report was scheduled to be released in 2016, but it took an additional three years to finish the task.
While unveiling the final results of the survey in 2019 in a press conference, the agency said the per capita poverty rate came down to 24.3% in FY16 from 31.5% in FY10. At the same event, the BBS also claimed the rate further dropped to 21.8% in FY18.
That the two different poverty rate figures were reached by a single survey had created confusion that is yet to be dispelled.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey conducted in FY17 to highlight the country's job market situation, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, similar to the rate in the preceding year.
The BBS has not conducted the survey to assess the nature of employment and conditions of seasonal workless people in the last four years. Had the quarterly survey been conducted, Covid-19 effects on the labour market would have been known within a few months after the pandemic hit.
Seeking anonymity, a BBS official said poverty reduction rates in the following few years were estimated, considering a positive relationship between per capita income growth and poverty alleviation.
In between FY10 and FY16, poverty was alleviated at an 0.7% rate against a 1% increase in per capita income. The new rate had been calculated based on an assumption that economic growth would alleviate poverty at the same rate in the coming years.
As per the latest BBS data, per capita income marked a growth even in the pandemic period that saw a drastic fall in earnings of most people engaged in the informal sector. But the BBS did not say what impact it had on the poverty situation, although independent research revealed a massive rise in new poor.
In 1974, the then president Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman created the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics by merging four statistical agencies of the erstwhile provincial and central governments – the Bureau of Statistics, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, the Agricultural Census Commission and the Population Census Commission.
The following year, the Statistics Division was formed under the planning ministry to look after the BBS. In 2002, the division was again transformed into a wing of the planning ministry. In 2010, the Statistics Division was reconstituted, which was converted into the Statistics and Informatics Division in 2013.
The BBS has a decentralised network for the implementation of its activities with its head office in Dhaka. At present, it has statistical offices located in each division and district and upazila. The agency's total manpower is 2,234. Besides, there are around 100 employees in the Statistics and Informatics Division.
In the last fiscal year, Tk665.94 crore was allocated for conducting regular activities and development work of the BBS. The government claims that if Tk100 is spent on the organisation, Tk99.40 plays a role in alleviating poverty.
*No database of poor people created even in nine years*
The National Household Database (NHD) project launched in 2013 to prepare an information registry of all people in the country on the basis of income to quickly identify potential beneficiaries of social safety net programmes and disaster relief activities has not been completed in the last nine years.
The Tk328 crore project, financed by the government and the World Bank, had its deadline extended three times and the cost escalated to Tk728 crore, but its financial progress has been only 20% until June 2021. The fourth extension now awaits approval.
The government had decided to give maternity allowance to six lakh women through a World Bank project with an assumption that the NHD would be ready in 2014. Later, the World Bank has slashed $50 million from the project, with beneficiaries still not identified. The number of beneficiaries picked by alternative means has come down to four lakh.
According to BBS sources, the Management Information System under the project has not been completed yet. Besides, there are various inconsistencies in information collected for the database.
It will not be possible to get the final data on the poverty rate in the next two years, as various BBS data suggest.
Officials at the BBS said the Household Income and Expenditure Survey project has made only 2.5% progress since the beginning of last year.
A tender was floated using the electronic government procurement (e-GP) platform for the purchase of computers under the project, but lack of any response forced a second tender, officials involved in the project said.
A field survey, which was supposed to be conducted last month, has not begun yet because of Covid-19. Yamin Chowdhury, secretary to the Statistics and Informatics Division, at a meeting said there is no progress owing to a lack of farsightedness of those concerned.
Deputy Secretary to the Statistics and Informatics Division Dr Dipankar Roy said there was some delay in starting work because of the pandemic. Besides, a population census is going on now, which will continue till 2022. After that, the new HIES report will be available.
*Poverty facts get trimmed*
The BBS had completely thrown away some crucial surveys such as the income of the poor, their spending, and their standard of living.
Since independence, the bureau had been regularly publishing a consumer price index for the middle-class people of the capital until the fiscal 1997-98.
The BBS also suspended the agri-price publication featuring the wholesale and retail rates of farm items in FY06 as the huge price gap between the two segments continues to deprive the consumers and farmers.
The living expenses reports for the Narayanganj, Chattogram and Khulna workers also have been on hold since FY06. Reports featuring the consumer price index and actual wages of industrial workers also met the same fate.
*Industrial surveys lag behind*
The last economic census on industries and service sectors was carried out in 2013. In the last eight years, the country's GDP size tripled, thousands of business entities mushroomed, and many new sectors joined the economy; but all those developments apparently failed to convince the BBS to initiate a new census.
The last survey on the cottage industry was in 2011 while the ICT sector was surveyed two years later.
*Survey reports require extra time*
The final report of the 2017 agri-census is yet to see the light although it was supposed to be published in 2018. The initial report of the census was published last year – just before the survey project crossed the deadline. With the project period having been extended, the final report is still in the works.
At a press briefing, the Statistics and Informatics Division put the blame on the agri-wing, saying the wing could not provide the main crops data on time.
After conducting a survey on the manufacturing sector for three years, a one-page summary was published in 2019. The final report is yet to be published though two more years have already passed since then.
The Household Income and Expenditure Survey was conducted in 2016, while the final report – which is still being widely used in economic research – got published three years later in 2019.
Economist Prof Sayema Haque Bidisha said, "If the findings of a survey are revealed this year, we can forecast the next near-future based on the data. As such, every important sector should be surveyed at one-year intervals. Especially, surveys on income, spending and employment should be carried out regularly."
"Most of the vital censuses are not being carried out regularly. On top of that, if the final reports take three to four years to get published, they often are of no use," she added.
*Old baselines contributing to data-mismatches*
A number of non-governmental organisation surveys and researches suggest 10% of the Dhaka dwellers had to leave the capital for their ancestral villages during the pandemic owing to income erosion.
The rush to rural Bangladesh depressed the annual house rent spike. But the BBS house rent indices claimed housing in Dhaka has become 6.18% costlier in the last one year.
When contacted, BBS officials said they use a 47-year old baseline to gauge the house rent hike. The house rent baseline has not been updated since the fiscal 1973-74.
The bureau tailors the Quantum Index of Small Scale Manufacturing Industries with the fiscal 1995-96 baseline while the Building Materials Price Index in Bangladesh follows the fiscal 1998-99 baseline.
Inflation, GDP, Quantum Index of Industrial Production, and Price Indices of the Domestically Produced Industrial Goods are calculated with the 15-year-old baselines.
As time passed by, economists say many new sectors joined the economy and many sectors got lost. So, the older the base year of the calculation, the greater the inconsistency in data.
Statistics bureau officials said they are working to update FY16 as the base year for GDP growth. It was supposed to be completed within the current fiscal year, but the pandemic delayed the completion.
*Recent surveys don't reflect any Covid shocks*
The pandemic already dealt a mighty blow to the country's tourism and hospitality sector even before a 2019 survey report on the sector got published in July last year.
The report published during the pandemic used FY18 data – that completely ignored the virus fallout on the tourism sector.
Another BBS report published in July last year on Urban Economic Assessment said 21.25% of urban dwellers worry about food adequacy, while 20.64% cannot afford their preferred meals.
The report reflected on urban employment, food, housing, availability of potable water and sanitation, but failed to mention how the indicators got affected by the Covid-19 outbreak in Bangladesh.
Similarly, the Cost of Migration Survey Bangladesh-2020 did not take the virus fallout into account.
*What is BBS doing on Covid fallout?*
Since the Covid-19 outbreak in the country, the BBS has conducted two surveys in one and a half years to assess the pandemic shock on the economy but none of the final survey reports has been released yet.
In a summary of the "Covid-19 Bangladesh: Perception Survey over Impacts on Livelihood" based on telephone feedback from more than 1,000 mobile phone users, the BBS reported last October that all of the workforces, except day labourers, had returned to work by September after the first wave of the pandemic.
But, there are some inconsistencies in the summary of the unemployment rate, income fall and expenditure during the pandemic. It said the unemployment rate was only 2.3% in March last year.
But according to the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate was hovering around 4.2% from 2010 to 2017.
In the summary, the BBS said household-level spending fell by only 6.14% during the pandemic although the household income fell by 20.24%.
The BBS conducted another survey on the health sector but is yet to release the report. However, citing the report at a workshop, the secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division told reporters that the number of fatalities due to cardiac diseases is many times higher than the Covid-19 deaths.
He advised the authorities to think about other health issues alongside the virus infection.
*Confusion over GDP growth data*
The BBS did not publish the complete GDP growth data in the last two years – leading to confusion over the pandemic shock on Bangladesh economy.
Without considering the movement curbs-led economic crises, the BBS claimed Bangladesh clocked 5.24% GDP growth in the last fiscal year. But the World Bank claimed the growth to be 2.4% only.
The exact growth figure in FY20 still remains elusive though one more year has passed.
The World Bank projects Bangladesh's GDP growth at 3.6% in the current year, while estimates of other development partners are also almost the same. But the government says the growth will be more than 6%.
In the last week of May every year, the BBS publishes an initial growth estimate for the current fiscal year. The final report comes within the next three months at the end of the fiscal year. Breaking with the trend, the final growth report of the last year and the initial growth projection for the current fiscal are being delayed.
Against such a backdrop, economists say the target of more than 7% growth in the next fiscal year is quite irrational.
Dr Zahid Hussain, the former lead economist of the World Bank, said, "The GDP size in the next year would be relatively small if the World Bank growth projections in the last year and current year are taken into account. On the other hand, the GDP size will be bigger if we consider the government target.
"It is important to determine the GDP size on which the next year's growth target will be based," he added.
The confusion over the GDP size has been exacerbated by data released on GDP as per market prices, national income and several other indicators although the actual GDP size has not been ascertained in the last two fiscal years.
According to a report by the BBS presented at the cabinet meeting last month, the final size of GDP stood at Tk27,39,300 crore as per the market value in the last fiscal — that is Tk57,078 crore or 2.04% less than the initial estimate.
If the GDP size excluding inflation falls by 2%, so will the real GDP by more than 1%.
Economist Ahsan H Mansur said it is not difficult to find out the actual GDP after determining the size of GDP in market price.
He said it should be expedited for the sake of transparency and economic policy formulation.
When contacted, Planning Minister MA Mannan said there have always been questions from various quarters about the accuracy of official data. But the government, particularly the planning ministry, has to rely on BBS data, he added.
"The BBS lacks some skills and capabilities, which is nothing new," he said, adding that the government seeks support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Statistics Division of the United Nations and developed countries to strengthen the BBS.
The government has also planned to revamp the BBS to ensure data accuracy.
Responding to a question regarding the new poor, he said there are some inconsistencies in independent researches because of flawed methodologies. The actual number of the poor will be gauged through the next survey of the BBS.
"We have not suspended any survey in our tenures. Conducting any survey or stopping it is totally up to the BBS. We do not interfere in its work. We will ask it to reinitiate essential surveys if there are any," said Mannan.









Old, incomplete, assumed data calls accuracy into question


The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17




www.tbsnews.net

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## Destranator

Destranator said:


> Yes, why don't they stay home and eat and wear BBS stats?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=243087464291740&id=109415040992317



Was talking about this, not sure why the FB post disappeared:








Finance Minister wonders why people moving to Europe risking lives


Tunisian authorities on June 24 rescued 267 migrants, most of them Bangladeshis, who tried to sail from neighbouring Libya to Italy across the Mediterranean




www.tbsnews.net

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> *Old, incomplete, assumed data calls accuracy into question*
> *ECONOMY*
> *Jahidul Islam*
> 20 June, 2021, 11:05 pm
> Last modified: 21 June, 2021, 01:48 pm
> The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *On a road trip, current and clear map data is vital for reaching the destination or one might face the fate of the man who nearly married the wrong woman because Google Maps led him to the wrong address.*
> When it comes to planning the future development of a country, having a set of correct economic and social data is mandatory. The data provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is used for many kinds of development decisions but it turns out, the data from them is often outdated or incomplete, or worse even, made up and it can lead to confusion at different levels.
> Take the case of the rule of thumb the BBS uses to gauge reduction of poverty. It assumes that a 1% uptick in the gross domestic product (GDP) creates 0.25% of new jobs, leading to a fall in poverty rate a bit too. The BBS applied this rule to gauge the reduction in the number of poor people between FY16 and FY19.
> It claimed that around 50 lakh poor people came out of poverty during the period as per its assumption on the back of the steady economic growth.
> Similarly, without conducting any survey, it claimed that 74 lakh new jobs were created in the first four years of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (FY16-FY20).
> Going by the BBS's own rule of thumb, job growth would be less in the pandemic year that saw a 5.24% economic growth down from 8.15% in the previous year. But the official statistical agency could not come up with any data on job growth or loss since it did not run any survey on it.
> The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17.
> 
> 
> 
> Improper surveys yield incorrect economic, health data: WB chief economist
> Besides, the last time the state-owned statistical agency conducted the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to find out the latest situation of various socio-economic indicators, including per capita poverty rate, per capita income, expenditure, savings, food intake and inequality was in FY16.
> The result – the BBS cannot provide data on many socio-economic indicators. Some data it discloses are incomplete and conjectural.
> Without conducting the HIES and the Labour Force Survey, the agency determined the number of employment opportunities and the poverty reduction rate, relying on some assumptions and its rules of thumb.
> Many independent research agencies claim the number of pandemic-induced job losses is at least three crore, but the government does not accept those estimates.
> Against this backdrop, economists have urged the BBS to determine the real number of jobs lost due to Covid-19 through a new survey.
> "If a survey cannot be carried out for some reasons, we still can have a rough idea about the trend of employment and poverty based on data of the preceding two years. But we can no way gauge the exact number of job creation or the rate of poverty reduction just on assumption," said Mustafizur Rahman, economist and distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.
> The number of jobs might not go up even if production outside the labour-intensive industry increases. Again, growth may not always be interpreted as reducing poverty at the same rate, he pointed out.
> Noting that there is not much match between reality and data based on poor estimates, he said it would be difficult to implement a big plan based on such data.
> The latest HIES survey report was scheduled to be released in 2016, but it took an additional three years to finish the task.
> While unveiling the final results of the survey in 2019 in a press conference, the agency said the per capita poverty rate came down to 24.3% in FY16 from 31.5% in FY10. At the same event, the BBS also claimed the rate further dropped to 21.8% in FY18.
> That the two different poverty rate figures were reached by a single survey had created confusion that is yet to be dispelled.
> According to the latest Labour Force Survey conducted in FY17 to highlight the country's job market situation, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, similar to the rate in the preceding year.
> The BBS has not conducted the survey to assess the nature of employment and conditions of seasonal workless people in the last four years. Had the quarterly survey been conducted, Covid-19 effects on the labour market would have been known within a few months after the pandemic hit.
> Seeking anonymity, a BBS official said poverty reduction rates in the following few years were estimated, considering a positive relationship between per capita income growth and poverty alleviation.
> In between FY10 and FY16, poverty was alleviated at an 0.7% rate against a 1% increase in per capita income. The new rate had been calculated based on an assumption that economic growth would alleviate poverty at the same rate in the coming years.
> As per the latest BBS data, per capita income marked a growth even in the pandemic period that saw a drastic fall in earnings of most people engaged in the informal sector. But the BBS did not say what impact it had on the poverty situation, although independent research revealed a massive rise in new poor.
> In 1974, the then president Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman created the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics by merging four statistical agencies of the erstwhile provincial and central governments – the Bureau of Statistics, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, the Agricultural Census Commission and the Population Census Commission.
> The following year, the Statistics Division was formed under the planning ministry to look after the BBS. In 2002, the division was again transformed into a wing of the planning ministry. In 2010, the Statistics Division was reconstituted, which was converted into the Statistics and Informatics Division in 2013.
> The BBS has a decentralised network for the implementation of its activities with its head office in Dhaka. At present, it has statistical offices located in each division and district and upazila. The agency's total manpower is 2,234. Besides, there are around 100 employees in the Statistics and Informatics Division.
> In the last fiscal year, Tk665.94 crore was allocated for conducting regular activities and development work of the BBS. The government claims that if Tk100 is spent on the organisation, Tk99.40 plays a role in alleviating poverty.
> *No database of poor people created even in nine years*
> The National Household Database (NHD) project launched in 2013 to prepare an information registry of all people in the country on the basis of income to quickly identify potential beneficiaries of social safety net programmes and disaster relief activities has not been completed in the last nine years.
> The Tk328 crore project, financed by the government and the World Bank, had its deadline extended three times and the cost escalated to Tk728 crore, but its financial progress has been only 20% until June 2021. The fourth extension now awaits approval.
> The government had decided to give maternity allowance to six lakh women through a World Bank project with an assumption that the NHD would be ready in 2014. Later, the World Bank has slashed $50 million from the project, with beneficiaries still not identified. The number of beneficiaries picked by alternative means has come down to four lakh.
> According to BBS sources, the Management Information System under the project has not been completed yet. Besides, there are various inconsistencies in information collected for the database.
> It will not be possible to get the final data on the poverty rate in the next two years, as various BBS data suggest.
> Officials at the BBS said the Household Income and Expenditure Survey project has made only 2.5% progress since the beginning of last year.
> A tender was floated using the electronic government procurement (e-GP) platform for the purchase of computers under the project, but lack of any response forced a second tender, officials involved in the project said.
> A field survey, which was supposed to be conducted last month, has not begun yet because of Covid-19. Yamin Chowdhury, secretary to the Statistics and Informatics Division, at a meeting said there is no progress owing to a lack of farsightedness of those concerned.
> Deputy Secretary to the Statistics and Informatics Division Dr Dipankar Roy said there was some delay in starting work because of the pandemic. Besides, a population census is going on now, which will continue till 2022. After that, the new HIES report will be available.
> *Poverty facts get trimmed*
> The BBS had completely thrown away some crucial surveys such as the income of the poor, their spending, and their standard of living.
> Since independence, the bureau had been regularly publishing a consumer price index for the middle-class people of the capital until the fiscal 1997-98.
> The BBS also suspended the agri-price publication featuring the wholesale and retail rates of farm items in FY06 as the huge price gap between the two segments continues to deprive the consumers and farmers.
> The living expenses reports for the Narayanganj, Chattogram and Khulna workers also have been on hold since FY06. Reports featuring the consumer price index and actual wages of industrial workers also met the same fate.
> *Industrial surveys lag behind*
> The last economic census on industries and service sectors was carried out in 2013. In the last eight years, the country's GDP size tripled, thousands of business entities mushroomed, and many new sectors joined the economy; but all those developments apparently failed to convince the BBS to initiate a new census.
> The last survey on the cottage industry was in 2011 while the ICT sector was surveyed two years later.
> *Survey reports require extra time*
> The final report of the 2017 agri-census is yet to see the light although it was supposed to be published in 2018. The initial report of the census was published last year – just before the survey project crossed the deadline. With the project period having been extended, the final report is still in the works.
> At a press briefing, the Statistics and Informatics Division put the blame on the agri-wing, saying the wing could not provide the main crops data on time.
> After conducting a survey on the manufacturing sector for three years, a one-page summary was published in 2019. The final report is yet to be published though two more years have already passed since then.
> The Household Income and Expenditure Survey was conducted in 2016, while the final report – which is still being widely used in economic research – got published three years later in 2019.
> Economist Prof Sayema Haque Bidisha said, "If the findings of a survey are revealed this year, we can forecast the next near-future based on the data. As such, every important sector should be surveyed at one-year intervals. Especially, surveys on income, spending and employment should be carried out regularly."
> "Most of the vital censuses are not being carried out regularly. On top of that, if the final reports take three to four years to get published, they often are of no use," she added.
> *Old baselines contributing to data-mismatches*
> A number of non-governmental organisation surveys and researches suggest 10% of the Dhaka dwellers had to leave the capital for their ancestral villages during the pandemic owing to income erosion.
> The rush to rural Bangladesh depressed the annual house rent spike. But the BBS house rent indices claimed housing in Dhaka has become 6.18% costlier in the last one year.
> When contacted, BBS officials said they use a 47-year old baseline to gauge the house rent hike. The house rent baseline has not been updated since the fiscal 1973-74.
> The bureau tailors the Quantum Index of Small Scale Manufacturing Industries with the fiscal 1995-96 baseline while the Building Materials Price Index in Bangladesh follows the fiscal 1998-99 baseline.
> Inflation, GDP, Quantum Index of Industrial Production, and Price Indices of the Domestically Produced Industrial Goods are calculated with the 15-year-old baselines.
> As time passed by, economists say many new sectors joined the economy and many sectors got lost. So, the older the base year of the calculation, the greater the inconsistency in data.
> Statistics bureau officials said they are working to update FY16 as the base year for GDP growth. It was supposed to be completed within the current fiscal year, but the pandemic delayed the completion.
> *Recent surveys don't reflect any Covid shocks*
> The pandemic already dealt a mighty blow to the country's tourism and hospitality sector even before a 2019 survey report on the sector got published in July last year.
> The report published during the pandemic used FY18 data – that completely ignored the virus fallout on the tourism sector.
> Another BBS report published in July last year on Urban Economic Assessment said 21.25% of urban dwellers worry about food adequacy, while 20.64% cannot afford their preferred meals.
> The report reflected on urban employment, food, housing, availability of potable water and sanitation, but failed to mention how the indicators got affected by the Covid-19 outbreak in Bangladesh.
> Similarly, the Cost of Migration Survey Bangladesh-2020 did not take the virus fallout into account.
> *What is BBS doing on Covid fallout?*
> Since the Covid-19 outbreak in the country, the BBS has conducted two surveys in one and a half years to assess the pandemic shock on the economy but none of the final survey reports has been released yet.
> In a summary of the "Covid-19 Bangladesh: Perception Survey over Impacts on Livelihood" based on telephone feedback from more than 1,000 mobile phone users, the BBS reported last October that all of the workforces, except day labourers, had returned to work by September after the first wave of the pandemic.
> But, there are some inconsistencies in the summary of the unemployment rate, income fall and expenditure during the pandemic. It said the unemployment rate was only 2.3% in March last year.
> But according to the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate was hovering around 4.2% from 2010 to 2017.
> In the summary, the BBS said household-level spending fell by only 6.14% during the pandemic although the household income fell by 20.24%.
> The BBS conducted another survey on the health sector but is yet to release the report. However, citing the report at a workshop, the secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division told reporters that the number of fatalities due to cardiac diseases is many times higher than the Covid-19 deaths.
> He advised the authorities to think about other health issues alongside the virus infection.
> *Confusion over GDP growth data*
> The BBS did not publish the complete GDP growth data in the last two years – leading to confusion over the pandemic shock on Bangladesh economy.
> Without considering the movement curbs-led economic crises, the BBS claimed Bangladesh clocked 5.24% GDP growth in the last fiscal year. But the World Bank claimed the growth to be 2.4% only.
> The exact growth figure in FY20 still remains elusive though one more year has passed.
> The World Bank projects Bangladesh's GDP growth at 3.6% in the current year, while estimates of other development partners are also almost the same. But the government says the growth will be more than 6%.
> In the last week of May every year, the BBS publishes an initial growth estimate for the current fiscal year. The final report comes within the next three months at the end of the fiscal year. Breaking with the trend, the final growth report of the last year and the initial growth projection for the current fiscal are being delayed.
> Against such a backdrop, economists say the target of more than 7% growth in the next fiscal year is quite irrational.
> Dr Zahid Hussain, the former lead economist of the World Bank, said, "The GDP size in the next year would be relatively small if the World Bank growth projections in the last year and current year are taken into account. On the other hand, the GDP size will be bigger if we consider the government target.
> "It is important to determine the GDP size on which the next year's growth target will be based," he added.
> The confusion over the GDP size has been exacerbated by data released on GDP as per market prices, national income and several other indicators although the actual GDP size has not been ascertained in the last two fiscal years.
> According to a report by the BBS presented at the cabinet meeting last month, the final size of GDP stood at Tk27,39,300 crore as per the market value in the last fiscal — that is Tk57,078 crore or 2.04% less than the initial estimate.
> If the GDP size excluding inflation falls by 2%, so will the real GDP by more than 1%.
> Economist Ahsan H Mansur said it is not difficult to find out the actual GDP after determining the size of GDP in market price.
> He said it should be expedited for the sake of transparency and economic policy formulation.
> When contacted, Planning Minister MA Mannan said there have always been questions from various quarters about the accuracy of official data. But the government, particularly the planning ministry, has to rely on BBS data, he added.
> "The BBS lacks some skills and capabilities, which is nothing new," he said, adding that the government seeks support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Statistics Division of the United Nations and developed countries to strengthen the BBS.
> The government has also planned to revamp the BBS to ensure data accuracy.
> Responding to a question regarding the new poor, he said there are some inconsistencies in independent researches because of flawed methodologies. The actual number of the poor will be gauged through the next survey of the BBS.
> "We have not suspended any survey in our tenures. Conducting any survey or stopping it is totally up to the BBS. We do not interfere in its work. We will ask it to reinitiate essential surveys if there are any," said Mannan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Old, incomplete, assumed data calls accuracy into question
> 
> 
> The BBS is supposed to carry out the Labour Force Survey every three months to provide a snapshot of the country's labour market, but it has not done any such thing since FY17
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tbsnews.net



*The mother lode, meaning the BBS handbook for 2020 (latest)*



http://bbs.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/bbs.portal.gov.bd/page/b2db8758_8497_412c_a9ec_6bb299f8b3ab/2021-05-14-05-49-4eb195f4d4984822389711e9be6832bb.pdf


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## EasyNow

I think we are all missing the big picture here. 

BBS stats have immense political and economic ramifications and they are being managed in a way to provide BD maximum benefit with international funders and foreign investors. 

Leaving this job in the hands of so called independent auditors leaves Bangladesh's economy open to ruination. As we know, no one in Bangladesh is truly independent and I have zero faith that anyone will work in the interest of BD.

Even if the BBS stats are 5% wrong, the circus created by these 'honest auditors' in the media will ruin BD. In matters of international economics, we can't be naive. 

In the end what matters are the facts on the ground, do people feel like we are prospering or not? If not then raise a cry by all means but otherwise don't ruin a good thing just so we can tick some boxes.

Reactions: Love Love:
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## Bilal9

EasyNow said:


> I think we are all missing the big picture here.
> 
> BBS stats have immense political and economic ramifications and they are being managed in a way to provide BD maximum benefit with international funders and foreign investors.
> 
> Leaving this job in the hands of so called independent auditors leaves Bangladesh's economy open to ruination. As we know, no one in Bangladesh is truly independent and I have zero faith that anyone will work in the interest of BD.
> 
> Even if the BBS stats are 5% wrong, the circus created by these 'honest auditors' in the media will ruin BD. In matters of international economics, we can't be naive.
> 
> In the end what matters are the facts on the ground, do people feel like we are prospering or not? If not then raise a cry by all means but otherwise don't ruin a good thing just so we can tick some boxes.



My thoughts exactly.

Better to have things reported by BBS rather than India Shills like CPD folks or any other pa-chata folks controlled by other countries.

Reactions: Like Like:
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## Bilal9

Improper surveys yield incorrect economic, health data: WB chief economist 

This guy is a well-known British Neocon. End of story. Credibility questionable.

In fact all World Bank Chief Economists are Neocon Shills appointed by Neocons. 

Current Chief economist of the WB is Carmen Reinhart, another Cuban Neocon Sellout. Her husband Mr. Reinhart is a card-carrying chief economist and member of the American Enterprise Institute, which is the premier Neocon outfit in Wash D.C.


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## Destranator

Bilal9 said:


> *The mother lode, meaning the BBS handbook for 2020 (latest)*
> 
> 
> 
> http://bbs.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/bbs.portal.gov.bd/page/b2db8758_8497_412c_a9ec_6bb299f8b3ab/2021-05-14-05-49-4eb195f4d4984822389711e9be6832bb.pdf


The article is not about the handbook. The handbook is not plugging the gaps identified.



Bilal9 said:


> My thoughts exactly.
> 
> Better to have things reported by BBS rather than India Shills like CPD folks or any other pa-chata folks controlled by other countries.


There is no evidence of CPD/Debapriya being Indian shills. There is no benefit for India to make a friendly BAL regime uncomfortable by questioning their data.


Bilal9 said:


> Improper surveys yield incorrect economic, health data: WB chief economist
> 
> This guy is a well-known British Neocon. End of story. Credibility questionable.
> 
> In fact all World Bank Chief Economists are Neocon Shills appointed by Neocons.
> 
> Current Chief economist of the WB is Carmen Reinhart, another Cuban Neocon Sellout. Her husband Mr. Reinhart is a card-carrying chief economist and member of the American Enterprise Institute, which is the premier Neocon outfit in Wash D.C.


Again, more character assasination. World Bank is not a dictatorship of its chief. Besides, American neocons benefit nothing from specifically questioning BBS data.

Your favourite Zahid Hussain is quoted in many of the articles in this thread. Whom is he "shilling" for?

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> The article is not about the handbook. The handbook is not plugging the gaps identified.
> 
> 
> There is no evidence of CPD/Debapriya being Indian shills. There is no benefit for India to make a friendly BAL regime uncomfortable by questioning their data.
> 
> Again, more character assasination without evidence. World Bank is not a dictatorship of its chief. Besides, American necons benefit nothing from specifically questioning BBS data.



Have you checked the total Direct investment and FDI of Bangladesh last year ?


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## Destranator

2019-2020 GDP growth magically came down to 3.5% after public pressure to release data.









Release of GDP estimates restores rules of business, says Debapriya


As the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) finally released the estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components in the last week, a leading economist appreciated the move. “The new figure has brought back some sanity in the GDP growth estimates, endowed credibility to the BBS, and...




thefinancialexpress.com.bd




*Release of GDP estimates restores rules of business, says Debapriya*

FE Online Report | Published: August 08, 2021 18:07:55 | Updated: August 08, 2021 20:40:56




Release of GDP estimates restores rules of business, says Debapriya
As the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) finally released the estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components in the last week, a leading economist appreciated the move.
“The new figure has brought back some sanity in the GDP growth estimates, endowed credibility to the BBS, and restored the Rules of Business regarding preparing national accounts of the country,” said Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
He was presenting the keynote paper at a virtual media briefing on Sunday morning organised by Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh. The title of the briefing was ‘Delivery of the National Budget 2021 in the Context of the Pandemic: Ensuring Interests of the Disadvantaged People.’
*The final GDP growth rate figure provided by the BBS for the fiscal year 2019-20 (FY20) is 3.51 per cent which is lower than the originally targeted 8.2 per cent or even a revised target of 5.50 per cent.
“This is in line with the post-budget critic by the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs,” said Dr Bhattacharya who is also convenor of the platform.*
“The registered economic performance of Bangladesh still compares favourably among its peers in the pandemic year,” he continued.
BBS released the final GDP estimation for FY20 almost a year later and also the provisional GDP estimate for FY21 which had usually been released before the end of a fiscal year and quoted in the budget speech.
According to the BBS provisional estimate, GDP registered 5.47 per cent growth in FY21.
“What is curious is that this GDP growth estimate is most probably available (because per capita income figures were provided by the BBS by then), but was not disclosed in the budget speech,” he added.
The economist also said that the targeted GDP growth rate for FY21 was revised down from 8.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent but the ‘final figures are expected to be lower.’
“The performance indicators are yet to capture the last quarter (March- June 21) which coincided with the advent of the second wave of the pandemic,” he said in the presentation.


Indos said:


> Have you checked the total Direct investment and FDI of Bangladesh last year ?


What about it?

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> 2019-2020 GDP growth magically came down to 3.5% after public pressure to release data.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Release of GDP estimates restores rules of business, says Debapriya
> 
> 
> As the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) finally released the estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components in the last week, a leading economist appreciated the move. “The new figure has brought back some sanity in the GDP growth estimates, endowed credibility to the BBS, and...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thefinancialexpress.com.bd
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What about it?



Previous article that I read shows total direct investment figure that is questioning, maybe the writer makes mistake, so that I hope you check it on official data from your Investment or Finance Ministry press release


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## Destranator

*OP-ED: GDP growth is not a numbers game*

 Sadiq Ahmed

 Published at 10:09 pm September 15th, 2021​






MEHEDI HASAN
 

Given its primacy in enabling development progress, the government attaches great importance to annual GDP growth outcome



Bangladesh has secured major development progress since independence, substantially enabled by rapid growth in GDP.

Owing to the GDP growth acceleration from an average of 4% per annum during the 1980s to 6.8% during the decade of 2009-2019, per capita gross national income (GNI) accelerated from less than $100 in the early 1970s to $1909in 2019.

Given its primacy in enabling development progress, the government attaches great importance to annual GDP growth outcome.

Not surprisingly, the Perspective Plan 2041 (PP2041) seeks to further accelerate average annual GDP growth to the 8 plus range.

All this is welcome news. 

*However, over the past several years there have been some worrisome signs of a potential disconnect between the GDP growth numbers published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and GDP correlates.*

*Normally, GDP growth acceleration is positively correlated with rising private and public investment rates, growth in private sector credit to finance higher investment and working capital in line with GDP growth, the growth of exports and the expansion of employment.

Available evidence suggests that in recent years (FY2016-FY2019) the private investment rate has stagnated at around 22-23% of GDP, which is nearly similar to the rate found during FY2013-FY2016.

Also Read - OP-ED: Building a greener Bangladesh

Over the same periods, export growth in nominal dollars fell from 8% to 6%, private sector credit growth remained unchanged at around 14% per year’ and the growth of employment has slackened considerably.

Yet, according to BBS official national accounts, the average GDP growth rate accelerated from 6.6% during FY2013-FY2016 to 7.8% between FY2016-FY2019.

Manipulation?

Most researchers have expressed concern over a possible manipulation of the GDP growth numbers.

This is not unique to Bangladesh and similar concerns were raised in the past in Pakistan and India. 

This concern came to a fore in the post Covid-19 period when BBS published a preliminary GDP growth estimate of 5.2% for FY2020.

Based on survey work, several researchers argued that there has been a sharp deceleration in economic activities in the urban areas including manufacturing, construction, trade, transport and other services during the Covid-infected periods of March-June 2020.

Yet the BBS GDP estimate did not seem to fully factor in this reality.

A similar reality check was missing from the government’s highly optimistic projection of 8.2% growth for FY2021 used in the FY2021 National Budget.

This was subsequently scaled down to 7.2% in the 8th Five Year Plan but remained essentially disconnected from reality.

Playing with GDP growth numbers is unfortunate as this sends a wrong signal to the senior policy makers about the economic health of the country. 

GDP growth, when estimated properly, is simply a measure of the buoyancy of the national economy.

When this comes under pressure from exogenous shocks like Covid-19, or from a slowdown in internal or external demand, it serves as a signal to policy makers that corrective policy measures have to be taken to protect GDP growth from the down-turn.

If instead, the growth numbers are manipulated, then this will prevent corrective measures and hurt the economy in a variety of ways including unemployment, slowdown of earnings, and increase in poverty. 

So, it is very important to note that GDP growth is not a numbers game.

It has real consequences for people’s welfare that cannot be masked or manipulated through an accounting process.

In this context, the recent revision of GDP growth numbers by BBS that takes a bold approach to revisit the FY2020 GDP estimates in light of the Covid-19 impact and also provide a more realistic preliminary GDP growth estimate for FY2021 is a welcome move.

Also Read - OP-ED: Government revenue crunch could constrain development progress

The revised numbers show a final GDP growth number of 3.5% for FY2020 and a preliminary GDP growth estimate of 5.5% for FY2021.

These are more realistic in light of evidence from correlates as well as survey findings.

These growth rates are low by past standards but still highly positive in light of global experience with Covid-19. *

*The government must not feel too disappointed and instead focus on a recovery policy package to stimulate the economy in the coming years as the negative Covid-19 impact weakens.*

There is a large policy agenda in the area of exchange rate management, tax reforms, public expenditure management, trade policy reforms, reform of the investment climate, banking sector reforms, infrastructure reforms, health and education reforms, and environmental reforms that could provide a substantial boost to GDP and help Bangladesh to move back to the PP2041 growth path on a sustainable basis.

*Credit given where it is due*

We congratulate BBS for being able to provide their best professional estimate of GDP growth that is much more credible than the previous numbers.

We also appeal to the government to take steps to protect the integrity of the BBS and to strengthen its capacity. 

The BBS has made significant progress over the years in expanding its data services. 

Yet, there remains a large unfinished agenda. 

Critical indicators like poverty and employment are outdated by more than 5 years; national accounts have improved on the production side but expenditure accounts are weak; consistency of national accounts with fiscal and financial accounts is lacking; quarterly GDP estimates are missing; district level GDP estimates have been long discontinued with no effort to re-institute this useful exercise.

These are just a few examples. There are other important gaps.

The BBS is a national institution and produces outputs that are public goods. 

The government must understand and appreciate this and take steps to convert BBS into an autonomous national institution instead of treating it as a part of the bureaucracy that is managed and controlled by the government.

There is considerable global experience with managing the production and distribution of the national database and Bangladesh can learn from it in designing a truly autonomous national data institution.

This is a long-term agenda and a task force of experts can be established to help the government in this endeavor. 

In the short term, several steps can be taken to strengthen the BBS. 

First, the management of the BBS along with oversight of the General Economics Division (GED) could be assigned to the newly created post of the state minister for planning.

Since GED has the responsibility to prepare major national strategy documents including the 5-year plans, it is also a major user of BBS products.

The interaction of GED staff with BBS staff can be mutually beneficial and help improve the quality of BBS products.

Second, the government must recruit a top-rated professional statistician as the chief statistical officer with the rank and status of at least an additional secretary to provide quality control to BBS data products. 

Third, a BBS advisory committee should be established from the researchers who can review major outputs of the BBS such as national accounts, household income and expenditure surveys (HIES), and the Labor Force Survey (LFS) and provide appropriate user feedback and technical guidance to BBS. 

Finally, technical assistance can be sought from the donor community to upgrade the technical capacity of BBS.

In particular the UN, World Bank and the IMF have considerable global experience with the methodological issues relating to national accounts and consistency of financial flows, and BBS can upgrade its capacity in these areas through proper collaborative efforts.



_The author is vice chairman of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh. He can be reached at sadiqahmed1952@gmail.com_



_








OP-ED: GDP growth is not a numbers game


Given its primacy in enabling development progress, the government attaches great importance to annual GDP growth outcome




www.dhakatribune.com




_


Indos said:


> Previous article that I read shows total direct investment figure that is questioning, maybe the writer makes mistake, so that I hope you check it on official data from your Investment or Finance Ministry press release


Noted.

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## Destranator

I hope planning minister Mannan follows through with his intent to reform and give independence to BBS to protect it from the likes of Kamal chora and gong.

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## bluesky

Destranator said:


> The economist also said that the targeted GDP growth rate for FY21 was revised down from 8.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent but the ‘final figures are expected to be lower.’
> “The performance indicators are yet to capture the last quarter (March- June 21) which coincided with the advent of the second wave of the pandemic,” he said in the presentation.


Debapriya Bhattacharya is a great economic asset/ mind of Bangladesh. Here, I am dismayed to see a few people regularly make his character assassination. The only reason they do so is that he is a high-caste Hindu Brahmin and not a Muslim.

People should put aside someone's religion and focus on his mental caliber. However, It hurts my feeling to see how he is castigated as an Indian agent by some posters in this forum.

He is one of the sanest people in BD.

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## bluesky

Destranator said:


> However, over the past several years there have been some worrisome signs of a potential disconnect between the GDP growth numbers published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and GDP correlates.


The posters here should not jump at the so-called GDP per capita. It is nothing if one sees the immobile vehicles in the streets of Dhaka, broken shops and bazaars in small towns, and the number of beggars in all the towns and cities of the country. Villages are quite good, though!!

BD needs to industrialize fast instead of "borrow and build" a few prestigious civil engineering projects that do not produce wealth. Put money into the mouth and not into the two nostrils. Industries and trade produce the wealth of a/any nation.

There is no easy shortcut to development without first going through the pains of industrialization. BD needs millions of industries. Only when this happens people can really celebrate.

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> The article is not about the handbook. The handbook is not plugging the gaps identified.
> 
> 
> There is no evidence of CPD/Debapriya being Indian shills. There is no benefit for India to make a friendly BAL regime uncomfortable by questioning their data.
> 
> Again, more character assasination. World Bank is not a dictatorship of its chief. Besides, American neocons benefit nothing from specifically questioning BBS data.
> 
> Your favourite Zahid Hussain is quoted in many of the articles in this thread. Whom is he "shilling" for?



Bhai apney onek kothin sawal jigaisen.

Ami Mukkhu Shukkhu manush, amar oggo opinion disi.

Eto kisu bujhi nai, jani o na. Bhul hoiley khema koira den.

Zahid Hussain does not shill for anyone by the way, except himself. That is why I like him.

Guy is as clean as a freshly washed Jainamaaz, unlike these CPD guys, whose source of donations Bangladesh govt. is yet to scrutinize. 

Ami Zahid sir-key personally chini, kibhabey ta nai bollam. 

Bhodrolok ekjon oti niriho, ottonto "principled", shadashidha, namaji manush. 

Onar chehara dekhley bujhben na, uni personal life e etota dharmik. A real "Allah'r Banda" if I ever saw one.


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## Bilal9

bluesky said:


> Debapriya Bhattacharya is a great economic asset/ mind of Bangladesh. Here, I am dismayed to see a few people regularly make his character assassination. The only reason they do so is that he is a high-caste Hindu Brahmin and not a Muslim.
> 
> People should put aside someone's religion and focus on his mental caliber. However, It hurts my feeling to see how he is castigated as an Indian agent by some posters in this forum.
> 
> He is one of the sanest people in BD.



@bluesky bhai - the criticisms leveled on Debapriya's opinions is not because of him being a high caste Hindu, it is the source of his org's funding.

I am not questioning Debapriya's professional credentials, nor attacking his own religion, which is unthinkable. 

However it is clear he (and CPD) are certainly lobbying for 'outside parties' as 'guns for hire' to influence Bangladesh govt. policy. This trend has gotten stronger in the last two decades as many of the CPD private "thinktankers" are included in Bangladesh policy-making circles. There is certainly conflict of interest here.

Who is benefitting from CPD's lobbying? CPD certainly does not exist to further Bangladesh' interests.

If Indians are funding CPD as an Indian-influenced lobby organization, would you be okay supporting them?

Every lobby group and NGO in Bangladesh has to divulge their source of funding to the govt., has CPD done so?

We had Indians influence all our trade policies and tariff structures in Bangladesh to benefit Indian business interests for fifty long years now.

I don't believe this is right.

Enough is enough.


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## bluesky

Bilal9 said:


> @bluesky bhai - the criticisms leveled on Debapriya's opinions is not because of him being a high caste Hindu, it is the source of his org's funding.
> 
> I am not questioning Debapriya's professional credentials. However he is certainly lobbying for 'outside parties'.
> 
> Who is benefitting from CPD's lobbying? CPD certainly does not exist to further Bangladesh' interests.
> 
> If Indians are funding CPD as an Indian-influenced lobby organization, would you be okay supporting them?
> 
> We had Indians influence all our trade policies and tariff structures in Bangladesh to benefit Indian business interests for fifty long years now.
> 
> I don't believe this is right.
> 
> Enough is enough.


As far as I understand, Debapriya and India are not the same people. He is not a political man nor does he has ever shown political leaning towards any party. In fact, he is quite an asset and unlike Hasina or Khaleda is fit to run an entire country.

The issue is here because he regularly criticizes BBS data, therefore, some people automatically assume that he is an Indian agent which is not good logic. Now, everyone knows that last year the GDP growth was only 3.5% and our stupid politicians tried to cheat the world by overstating our Foreign Exchange Reserves by $7.2 billion. What a shameful country is Bangladesh!!

This guy criticizes and we throw barbs at him for being an Indian agent. It is a very sad state of our people's minds.

We from BD should better concentrate on our own achievements and failures and not how Indians fart in the open. Some Indians may do so, but it does not prove that they are not far above BD people when it is technological advancement and industrialization.

When BD cannot produce a pair of high tension bolts, India is building some of our power plants? It built Farakka and other 53 barrages. How about BD? Is it not begging for the Chinese money and technology to build the* Teesta Beautification Project? 

Y*ou can rest assured it will not solve overflooding. Nor it will solve the issue of water shortage during winter, and there will be a 3-billion dollar addition of foreign loans. I ask people here to come with engineering logic/ proofs to tell me how this stupid Hasina project can solve the Teesta river issue.

Now, should we not follow the Indian good examples instead of castigating some of their shortcomings? Fart they may do, but only in three months from July to September, $22 billion FDI has applied for investment in India.

How about our Golden Bangladesh. We are feeble-minded people and so are our leaders who know little about economic development. They are good at putting the cart in front of the horse.

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## Bilal9

bluesky said:


> As far as I understand, Debapriya and India are not the same people. He is not a political man nor does he has ever shown political leaning towards any party. In fact, he is quite an asset and unlike Hasina or Khaleda is fit to run an entire country.
> 
> The issue is here because he regularly criticizes BBS data, therefore, some people automatically assume that he is an Indian agent which is not good logic. Now, everyone knows that last year the GDP growth was only 3.5% and our stupid politicians tried to cheat the world by overstating our Foreign Exchange Reserves by $7.2 billion. What a shameful country is Bangladesh!!
> 
> This guy criticizes and we throw barbs at him for being an Indian agent. It is a very sad state of our people's minds.
> 
> We from BD should better concentrate on our own achievements and failures and not how Indians fart in the open. Some Indians may do so, but it does not prove that they are not far above BD people when it is technological advancement and industrialization.
> 
> When BD cannot produce a pair of high tension bolts, India is building some of our power plants? It built Farakka and other 53 barrages. How about BD? Is it not begging for the Chinese money and technology to build the* Teesta Beautification Project?
> 
> Y*ou can rest assured it will not solve overflooding? Nor it will solve the issue of water shortage during winter, and there will be an addition of foreign loans. I ask people here to come with engineering logic/ proofs to tell me how this stupid Hasina project can solve the Teesta river issue.
> 
> Now, should we not follow the Indian good examples instead of castigating some of their shortcomings? Fart they may do, but only in three months from July to September, $22 billion FDI has applied for investment in India.
> 
> How about our Golden Bangladesh. We are feeble-minded people and so are our leaders who know little about economic development. They are good at putting the cart in front of the horse.



I hope I can put forth some counterpoints, respectfully.

I agree @bluesky bhai that we - being an economy an eighth the size of India, will not be able to produce a lot of specialized items, among them high tension bolts and of course power stations. But that is fine. Not every country in the world sucks and excels at everything. India sucks at the apparel industry and many other efforts. We suck at engineering and capital goods. It's okay.

Some of our Bangladeshi "sucks" are inexcusable, like not being able to produce railway carriages, coaches, wagons and locomotives. This is a longtime beef of mine and yours as well. Well I hear (saw this in a TV interview) that they are finally readying funding to turn Syedpur factory into a Coach-building hub with Indian assistance. Why they sought Indian assistance is to me befuddling, because India itself sought assistance from a German company (LHB) to build better quality coaches. But anyway - if they can start something then that is good. We should have sought assistance from China, as they are far ahead of India in producing these items and are cost-wise not overly much more expensive.

Compared to China or Japan, India royally sucks at engineering too. Their power stations (BHEL equipment) costs twice as much as Chinese plants do and is built at one third the pace, just looking at Bangladesh examples. Payra Power station in Patuakhali built by the Chinese was started at the same time as the Indian Maitry power station in Khulna, which is not even halfway finished now. Payra PowerStation is meanwhile completely operational and supplying power to the national grid. Hasina will inaugurate it sometime soon next March.






If you have to call Bangladesh a few names for our industrial laziness, you can call Indians the same names too. They are not way ahead of us and IMHO just as f*cked as we are, in many ways. The time for when Indians would take copious COPIUM to feel at least better than us in Bangladesh has come and gone, at least financially. Soon there will be other ways we will better ourselves too (still early days yet), but like many here have said, comparing ourselves to India is not the end-goal.

In India itself, Chinese power stations were being built at three times the rate their own vendors were completing (Chinese power generation equipment quality was cheaper and better quality than Indian stuff of course) - this was before the Doklam and other border fiascoes started. Now there is 20% duty on importing capital goods from China (including power generation equipment), Indians are doing an excellent job of shooting themselves in their own feet for Industrial development in their country. 

Indian Coal-based power plants are old (falling apart), and coal is now getting more expensive. India is facing a huge power shortage. When the Paris agreement starts being enforced, India will lose in a big way.









India's power plants are running dangerously short of coal


China isn't the only major Asian economy facing an energy crisis. India may be staring at electricity shortages in the coming months because coal stocks at most of its power plants have dropped to critically low levels.




www.cnn.com





Indian technology is maybe better compared to Bangladesh, but it is nothing compare to that of China, forget Japan.

One cannot compare Bangladesh and Indian situations, India has a $1.4 Billion population base (with all adjunct responsibilities of being a large self-sufficient economy) and had post-1956 Nehruvian policies put in (like China) to achieve self sufficiency in industrial Capital goods production, including power plants and heavy electrical industry (BHEL and HMT being some examples).

Bangladesh did fine with imported capital equipment and I'd argue will do fine in the future as well.

If you notice, Malaysia or Thailand does not produce heavy electrical items either and why should they? They produce and sell whatever value-added goods they can export. I'd argue that Capital goods production has never been, nor will ever be, our specialty.

We can value-add and export on what sector we do best and let other countries (like China) add value in producing capital goods and industrial machinery. At the end of the day, not every country will not specialize at producing everything. This is entirely dependent on industrial history, size of the country, mentality and national discipline. Making money is the goal, not national pride (like Indians seem to boast about).

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## bluesky

Bilal9 said:


> I hope I can put forth some counterpoints, respectfully.
> 
> I agree @bluesky bhai that we - being an economy an eighth the size of India, will not be able to produce a lot of specialized items, among them high tension bolts and of course power stations. But that is fine. Not every country in the world sucks and excels at everything. India sucks at the apparel industry and many other efforts. We suck at engineering and capital goods. It's okay.
> 
> Some of our Bangladeshi "sucks" are inexcusable, like not being able to produce railway carriages, coaches, wagons and locomotives. This is a longtime beef of mine and yours as well. Well I hear (saw this in a TV interview) that they are finally readying funding to turn Syedpur factory into a Coach-building hub with Indian assistance. Why they sought Indian assistance is to me befuddling, because India itself sought assistance from a German company (LHB) to build better quality coaches. But anyway - if they can start something then that is good. We should have sought assistance from China, as they are far ahead of India in producing these items and are cost-wise not overly much more expensive.
> 
> Compared to China or Japan, India royally sucks at engineering too. Their power stations (BHEL equipment) costs twice as much as Chinese plants do and is built at one third the pace, just looking at Bangladesh examples. Payra Power station in Patuakhali built by the Chinese was started at the same time as the Indian Maitry power station in Khulna, which is not even halfway finished now. Payra PowerStation is meanwhile completely operational and supplying power to the national grid. Hasina will inaugurate it sometime soon next March.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you have to call Bangladesh a few names for our industrial laziness, you can call Indians the same names too. They are not way ahead of us and IMHO just as f*cked as we are, in many ways. The time for when Indians would take copious COPIUM to feel at least better than us in Bangladesh has come and gone, at least financially. Soon there will be other ways we will better ourselves too (still early days yet), but like many here have said, comparing ourselves to India is not the end-goal.
> 
> In India itself, Chinese power stations were being built at three times the rate their own vendors were completing (Chinese power generation equipment quality was cheaper and better quality than Indian stuff of course) - this was before the Doklam and other border fiascoes started. Now there is 20% duty on importing capital goods from China (including power generation equipment), Indians are doing an excellent job of shooting themselves in their own feet for Industrial development in their country.
> 
> Indian Coal-based power plants are old (falling apart), and coal is now getting more expensive. India is facing a huge power shortage. When the Paris agreement starts being enforced, India will lose in a big way.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> India's power plants are running dangerously short of coal
> 
> 
> China isn't the only major Asian economy facing an energy crisis. India may be staring at electricity shortages in the coming months because coal stocks at most of its power plants have dropped to critically low levels.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Indian technology is maybe better compared to Bangladesh, but it is nothing compare to that of China, forget Japan.
> 
> One cannot compare Bangladesh and Indian situations, India has a $1.4 Billion population base (with all adjunct responsibilities of being a large self-sufficient economy) and had post-1956 Nehruvian policies put in (like China) to achieve self sufficiency in industrial Capital goods production, including power plants and heavy electrical industry (BHEL and HMT being some examples).
> 
> Bangladesh did fine with imported capital equipment and I'd argue will do fine in the future as well.
> 
> If you notice, Malaysia or Thailand does not produce heavy electrical items either and why should they? They produce and sell whatever value-added goods they can export. I'd argue that Capital goods production has never been, nor will ever be, our specialty.
> 
> We can value-add and export on what sector we do best and let other countries (like China) add value in producing capital goods and industrial machinery. At the end of the day, not every country will not specialize at producing everything. This is entirely dependent on industrial history, size of the country, mentality and national discipline. Making money is the goal, not national pride (like Indians seem to boast about).


I was pointing at the achievements of India compared to BD, and present-day India cannot be compared to China. However, things there are not as static as you may imply. India, being a 3rd world Asian country, has slow progress.

But, it is moving forward. Note that only in three months $22 billion FDI has arrived. So, that country will not remain an underdog forever.

Contrary to what our Hasina Bibi tries us to believe, development does not come by 2041 when today's BD still remains an underdeveloped country. A day is coming, say 50 years from now, when India will be a fast developing country. At least they have built a system whereby they do not have to ask for foreign loans for every tiny job.

This is what BD is continuously doing making its future bleak because the investment in which you guys take so pride will not produce a single dollar worth of wealth.

However, I will accept MetroRail and Karnafuli tunnel as the two vital projects.

Excess money from the export plus remittance should have been invested in building factories with imported capital goods because only industries can produce national wealth and once a country has industries it can switch to many other sectors supported by the wealth produced in this sector.

BD is a country of about 169 million people and America has about 320 million people. BD should not be compared with Malaysia. I was in Malaysia for about six months. Muslim people there love an easy life supported by oil money. Chinese are different and Malaysia is developing because of their activities. 

BD has nothing except the two hands that should produce wealth in factories and workshops as the Japanese or Koreans do. It should make the best use of its foreign currency earnings.

Build factories, workshops, and plants, millions of them gradually.

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## Destranator

*Enhancing national statistical capacity*
Asjadul Kibria | Published: October 30, 2021 20:58:24




-Representational image
It was around nine years ago when a book, written by Morten Jerven, then an assistant professor at the school for international studies at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, stirred a debate on data accuracy of Africa's economy and development. Titled, 'Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled By African Development Statistics and What To Do About It', the book unveiled a 'huge discrepancies and alarming gaps' in African figures. Javan's work also found that just three out of 23 national statistics offices had believed their own calculations of gross domestic product (GDP) covered the whole economy and 18 thought they were underestimated. The book further found that in 2011, only 17 out of 47 selected African countries had prepared their own new GDP estimates and 10 had a 'base year' that was within the previous decade. Another finding was more than half of the rankings of African economies up to 2009 was pure guess estimate.
Though Jeven's study focused on Africa, the problems identified in the work are still valid for many other developing countries in Asia. Many of the African countries are yet to get rid of the doubtful data as overestimation and underestimation are a regular phenomenon there. Some countries in Asia are also facing the problem of update and authentic data despite the fact that a number of measures have been undertaken to improve quality of data, especially, the macroeconomic indicators.
Quality of economic data largely depends on the data collection and compilation process. It needs utmost care to collect and compile the raw data at the ground level. Next step is compilation where input of raw data is critical. Wrong input may lead to distorted or inadequate final data. Staffs in national statistical bodies as well as other national institutions need to be trained properly so that they can collect and compile data accurately. In the collection stage, the staffs have to focus on the reality of the situation and collect what they find. In the compilation phase, it is also crucial to input the data collected from the ground level. The collector and compiler of the data have to ensure the authenticity of the data without thinking about the output. In the data processing phase, it is necessary to cross-check the inputs randomly and go back to compilers and even collectors if necessary. The cross-checking helps to reduce the possibility of errors and omissions.
All this work need meticulous effort. With the modernisation of data collection and compilation procedures, it has now become easier to monitor the phases. For instance, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has GPS-enabled tracking system of the field staffs. When they work in the field to collect raw data using tablet or other electronic device, the device can be tracked from headquarter to find out at which spots or places the staffs are currently working. This kind of technology helps to ensure data accuracy and transparency. Again, it is also necessary to deploy the right persons at the right places. Providing national statistics is primarily the preserve of the statisticians. They know better than anyone about the statistical method. By appointing more statisticians, national statistical office can improve the quality of data. Also, regular training of non-statistician officials and staffs is necessary.
Nevertheless, it is ultimately the decision of the policymakers that matters in supplying quality data in a transparent manner. What the policymakers think and how they want to generate quality national statistics and relevant data are the two core issues in this regard. No doubt, sometime policymakers feel uncomfortable about national statistics that portrays bad performance of the economy or any of its sectors. In Bangladesh, there are instances of the release of national statistics getting delayed mainly due to not getting clearance from the authorities concerned. For instance, BBS released the final GDP estimation for FY20 almost a year later, in the August this year. It also made the provisional GDP estimate for FY21 public which is usually released before the end of a fiscal year and quoted in the budget speech. This kind of delay also raises question about data authenticity and even sometime gives rise to e speculation over data manipulation.
Not only the national statistical agency, some other important national institutions have also some problem with data and statistics. An English daily published a report last week on the central bank's overestimation of the country's foreign exchange reserve. According to the report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that Bangladesh Bank has overstated its foreign exchange reserves by $7.2 billion 'through inclusion of non-reserve assets underestimating related risks.' IMF has a clear guideline on foreign exchange reserve for all the member countries. Generally, international reserves comprise foreign currencies, other assets denominated in foreign currencies, gold reserves, special drawing rights (SDRs) and IMF reserve positions.
Though any response from the central bank in this regard is yet to be made available, this kind of overestimation is disturbing and misleading. The overestimation gives a wrong impression about the strength of the foreign exchange reserve. For instance, foreign exchange reserve worth US$ 48 billion (at the end of August) was considered enough to cover seven months' import of goods and services, according to the July-August balance of payments (BoP) table prepared by Bangladesh Bank. By deducting $7.0 billion from the 'overestimated' amount, actual reserve should be $41 billion which is equivalent to payments for around six months' import of goods and services. Definitely, the overestimation of reserve makes the monetary authority more comfortable about foreign exchange management, but the downside is it exposes the economy to the risk of absorbing any undue pressure. One may recall the formal celebration event, organised by the former governor almost a decade ago, to mark the attaining of foreign reserve worth US$10 billion. 
The core issue is that be it the national statistical agency or the central bank, an increased focus on strengthened national statistical capacity and data management is a must. It is difficult to ignore any number related to national economy and it is more difficult to overcome any damage due to a wrong number.
_asjadulk@gmail.com








Enhancing national statistical capacity


It was around nine years ago when a book, written by Morten Jerven, then an assistant professor at the school for international studies at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, stirred a debate on data accuracy of Africa's economy and development. Titled, 'Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled By...




thefinancialexpress.com.bd




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## bluesky

Destranator said:


> Enhancing national statistical capacity


What data this writer is talking about? Our great BD govt speaks of a target GDP for a certain year in the future, and when that year arrives, the BBS accommodates that figure to show off that BD is on track of economic progress. 

The GDP figures have been compiled this way for many years. BD is the only country in the world whose GDP keeps on increasing without big investments from neither local nor foreign sources having materialized. 

Even only 1 or 2 billion FDI makes the politicians and newspapers shout loud as if a $200 billion investment has arrived. 

BD will keep on living on the foreign handouts for many more centuries because its leaders believe the foreign countries have a responsibility to look after its welfare.

Very shameful creatures inhabit Bangladesh.

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## Pandora

How does inflating GDP and economic numbers affect economy?


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## Destranator

Pandora said:


> How does inflating GDP and economic numbers affect economy?


In an infinite number of ways - an unreliable GDP nominal messes with all other economic indicators that are dependent on it e.g.- GDP PPP, poverty rate, GDP nominal per capita, GNI, wealth growth, etc. as well all economic models and forecasts. A classic case is the government's screwed up power consumption forecast: the govt had overestimated power consumption growth based on projected economic growth and kept investing in power plants accordingly. Now we have idle power plant units costing us money including interest payments to foreign lenders.
Overestimation of wealth of the poorest 20% can mislead the government into underspending on poverty eradication programs which would only increase suffering and income inequality.
Inflated numbers can mislead private companies into overestimating market growth and make poor investment decisions which would hurt them in the long run.


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## Pandora

Destranator said:


> In an infinite number of ways - an unreliable GDP nominal messes with all other economic indicators that are dependent on it e.g.- GDP PPP, poverty rate, GDP nominal per capita, GNI, wealth growth, etc. as well all economic models and forecasts. A classic case is the government's screwed up power consumption forecast: the govt had overestimated power consumption growth based on projected economic growth and kept investing in power plants accordingly. Now we have idle power plant units costing us money including interest payments to foreign lenders.
> Overestimation of wealth of the poorest 20% can mislead the government into underspending on poverty eradication programs which would only increase suffering and income inequality.
> Inflated numbers can mislead private companies into overestimating market growth and make poor investment decisions which would hurt them in the long run.



That sucks. I guess only way is to make an independent department of statistics to avoid such fudging.

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## Bilal9

Pandora said:


> That sucks. I guess only way is to make an independent department of statistics to avoid such fudging.



Not gonna happen unless some agency like UN, IFC, World Bank or IMF appoints an "Independent Local Watchdog" who these agencies pay for, which means Bangladesh govt. sees it as a hostile stance taken by these Int'l agencies. That watchdog better be protected by armed commandoes. 

At the end of the day, these agencies take a long-term realistic view of the corruption in 3rd world countries, they know that govts. around the world are fudging data, and they have their own special way of extrapolating real data. from the fake data reported by govts. like Bangladesh and others.


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## Destranator

Bilal9 said:


> Not gonna happen unless some
> At the end of the day, these agencies take a long-term realistic view of the corruption in 3rd world countries, they know that govts. around the world are fudging data, and they have their own special way of extrapolating real data. from the fake data reported by govts. like Bangladesh and others.



Unfortunately IMF and WB cannot compensate for unreliable data through "extrapolation" while sitting in their cosy offices in DC.

GDP calculations require data collection through months and months of field surveys. Foreign agencies do not have the resources or jurisdiction to carry out such surveys.
Making BBS independent is indispensable so that they have the freedom to disclose their survey data for experts to scrutinise step by step.

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> Unfortunately IMF and WB cannot compensate for unreliable data through "extrapolation" while sitting in their cosy offices in DC.
> 
> GDP calculations require data collection through months and months of field surveys. Foreign agencies do not have the resources or jurisdiction to carry out such surveys.
> Making BBS independent is indispensable so that they have the freedom to disclose their survey data for experts to scrutinise step by step.



So the question then remains, who is going to bell the cat, i.e. make BBS "independent"?

Won't be Ms. Hasina, that's for sure. I don't know if in the future, loan disbursers make it a condition of their loans, maybe that should work.

By that time (ten year timeframe), Bangladesh will be able to fund most projects (except mega ones) from its own pocket, so corruption will always remain.

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## Destranator

Bilal9 said:


> So the question then remains, who is going to bell the cat, i.e. make BBS "independent"?
> 
> Won't be Ms. Hasina, that's for sure. I don't know if in the future, loan disbursers make it a condition of their loans, maybe that should work.
> 
> By that time (ten year timeframe), Bangladesh will be able to fund most projects (except mega ones) from its own pocket, so corruption will always remain.



Hopefully at some point we will get leaders who do not look cheap gratification through imflated numbers. Mannan is already making noises around making BBS independent but he is weak.

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## bluesky

Destranator said:


> Hopefully at some point we will get leaders who do not look cheap gratification through imflated numbers. Mannan is already making noises around making BBS independent but he is weak.


In BD, there is not even judicial independence. So, the BBS independence is non-attainable.

I just hope, our Mustafa Kamal suddenly does not declare BD's next FY2021-2022 GDP at $511 billion next July. He may have a good excuse to do so.

He would say that the base year has been revised to 2020 and as a result of this new base year, the GDP is up at $511 billion.

Oh!!! Half a trillion-dollar GDP!! Not bad. Joi Bangladesh!!!

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## bluesky

Bilal9 said:


> So the question then remains, who is going to bell the cat, i.e. make BBS "independent"?
> 
> Won't be Ms. Hasina, that's for sure. I don't know if in the future, loan disbursers make it a condition of their loans, maybe that should work.
> 
> *By that time (ten year timeframe), Bangladesh will be able to fund most projects (except mega ones) from its own pocket, so corruption will always remain.*


GDP has been raised from something like another fictitious $320 billion to $411 billion. But the Tax to GDP (new) ratio has decreased proportionately as a percentage of GDP. 

Now with this kind of tax collection, how do you expect big projects to be financed by the govt? With about 8% of tax vs GDP, the collection is so small that the GoB cannot really do so.

So, it will keep on depending upon borrowing from foreign sources. This will stop at a time when the amount of repayment becomes more than the amount of borrowing. 

This is the end of BD progress unless our garments exports rise to $100 billion in the next ten years.

Please take note of the cases of Pakistan and SL. Mathematics deals with real numbers and not imaginary numbers.

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## Destranator

BBS still faces challenges in imparting timely, credible data​
As the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics observes National Statistics Day-2022 today for the second year running, questions remain over how much the country’s premier agency for statistics has been able to keep to its missions of providing accurate, standardised and timely statistics since 1974. The photo was taken yesterday. Photo: Palash Khan
Without big data, you are blind and deaf and in the middle of a freeway.
This observation came from American author Geoffrey Alexander Moore. But it is quite pertinent for today's Bangladesh since there is an absence of timely and reliable data. Forget about "big data".

And this puts the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country's premier statistical agency, in the spotlight.
When a researcher or individual is interested to know more about Bangladesh's economic or social situation, they must turn to the BBS. But it is the government that needs credible data in a timely manner to make informed decisions.

"Providing accurate, standardised and timely statistics" has been one of the missions of the BBS since it began its journey in independent Bangladesh in 1

"The BBS has come a long way in terms of institutional and administrative capacity and expanding the coverage, frequency and reliability of statistics," said Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.
"There was a time when one had to visit the BBS office to collect inflation data. Now you can get them online."

The BBS is responsible for carrying out statistical programmes such as censuses on population, agriculture, manufacturing industries and establishments as well as other national surveys such as labour force, demographic situation, and household income and expenditure.
The agency is observing the National Statistics Day-2022 today, for the second year running.
Forty-eight years have passed but the BBS is still facing criticisms for its failure to produce data on time and maintain credibility due to a lack of proper management and political will.
Because of one of its failures, the sixth population census is set to see further delays as the state-run agency could not conduct it as scheduled even though four years have passed since drawing up a master plan.
The census, which is performed once a decade, offers complete data on population, its composition, workforce, density, housing and other socioeconomic indicators which are vital for formulating economic and other policies.
The last census was conducted in 2011, when the country's population stood at 15.17 crore. Currently, the estimated population is 16.8 crore, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2021.
The statistical agency prepared the master plan in 2018 and was supposed to publish a preliminary report on the exercise by July last year. In January 2021, it pushed back the date to October 25-31, but there has not been much headway, said BBS sources.
The BBS has also failed to ensure timely generation of the data on agriculture production.
Speaking to The Daily Star, Prof Md Aynul Islam, general secretary of the Bangladesh Economic Association, said reliable data is a key component for informed policymaking.
"The BBS is the sole authority to provide data in Bangladesh. But several data are not provided in a regular manner, which makes it difficult to make informed policy decisions."
Islam pointed out that the GDP figures provided by the BBS have faced questions recently.
"There is a general perception among the researchers that GDP figures in Bangladesh are overestimated. So, the BBS needs to win the trust of people. This issue should be addressed properly."
Similarly, the Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES), which is supposed to be conducted every five years, is now seven years old.
The survey was due in 2015. The BBS completed it in 2016-17, meaning when data were finally made available, they were already three years old.
"The next HIES survey was scheduled in 2020. It is 2022, and we do not have any information on the survey," Islam said.
During the coronavirus pandemic, the dearth of updated data posed challenges to the government as there is no information on the number of new poor or job losses. But the information is important to design stimulus packages and other policies targeting poverty and vulnerability.
The labour force data used to be published quarterly. But after 2015 and 2016, it was discontinued.
The BBS was also given the responsibility to conduct a census to develop the National Household Database, which will be used to improve the beneficiary selection process for social security programmes. The agency conducted the census in 2017 but has not released the data yet.
"The data had become outdated even before their release," Islam added.
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, also lauded the BBS for publishing updated data.
"However, the BBS should work independently and be accountable to the parliament. Its data should not be reviewed by any political parties or approved by a cabinet meeting, as it is a sensitive issue."
Prof Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling, says the BBS has some success in generating and publishing data and carrying out surveys.
"Its performance is better than many developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region."
However, there are shortcomings.
"Not only research organisations, but many government officials have admitted to a lack of qualitative data," said Raihan, a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka.
In a broader sense, after 48 years of the BBS's journey, it is still not in a good position. The role of the state-run agency has become even more important at a time when the government is working to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
"Willingness to work is a major issue to overcome the situations rather than funding," said Prof Raihan.
BBS Director-General Mohammad Tajul Islam could not be contacted for comments.
Zahid Hussain says a country needs statistics to assess development strategies.
"But when statistics are not available at regular intervals, you will face difficulty and then you will have to make a guess relying on whatever information you have."
"Statistics have not been available at regular intervals despite reforms and various projects."
Hussain says so far, there has been no controversy about poverty and employment data. "But there is a question about GDP growth, inflation and even agriculture production figures."
"I don't know how many people trust the inflation data of the BBS because consumers see a different picture when they go to the kitchen markets. So, the BBS has to publish important statistics regularly, and the problem related to credibility has to be overcome."
"Overall, there has been progress in terms of access and coverage of data, but the BBS still has a long way to go," Hussain added.









BBS still faces challenges in imparting timely, credible data


Without big data, you are blind and deaf and in the middle of a freeway.




www.thedailystar.net


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## UKBengali

Can this thread by finally closed as it seems to have run past it's sell by date now?

BD is on target for near 60 billion US dollars of exports this fiscal and the increase in GDP per capita PPP is in line with BBS GDP growth statistics.

GDP per capita PPP cannot be manipulated and so that puts paid to any chance of BD manipulating it's GDP statistics over the last decade.

Also, IMF would have already flagged this in it's reports if BD GDP growth reports were not credible as it has done in the past with other countries like Myanmar, and laymen should not think they know better than major international economic forecasters.

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## Destranator

Data deception weakens policies​Helal Uddin Ahmed | Published: March 07, 2022 21:29:32 | Updated: March 09, 2022 23:02:05
The average per capita income in Bangladesh was US$ 1,909 at the start of 2019-20 fiscal-year. Later, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) informed on August 11, 2020 that the per capita income had risen to US$ 2,064 in line with a GDP growth rate of 5.24 per cent during that fiscal-year. After that, the per capita income was shown to be US$ 2,227 at the end of 2020-21, which was followed by another BBS claim in November 2021 that the figure had crossed US$ 2,500. And according to the latest estimates of BBS, the per capita income rose by USD 327 to stand at US$ 2,554 at the end of 2021-22 fiscal-year. But this latest figure has not been the finding of any new survey or improvement in economic indices. Rather, it is mainly an outcome of changing the base year for calculation of GDP from the previous 2005-06 to the newly-set 2015-16 with effect from 2020-2021.

According to many economists, the BBS does not properly take into account the negative impact of inflation while calculating national income, labour income, household income etc. Besides, the GDP and per capita income can also be inflated by showing lesser population, as GDP has to be divided by population for arriving at per capita income figures. Whereas most observers including development partners opine that the country's population is over 180 million now, the BBS shows it to be 163 million. As there has not been any population census in the country since 2011, the actual population as well as population growth rate of Bangladesh appears to be ambiguous and BBS has not done anything concrete to allay the suspicions. As in the past, its principled position appears to be satisfying the whims of relevant authorities or pleasing them with bloated figures instead of acting as truth-seekers with regard to socio-economic data of the country.

Estimation of national income accounts in Bangladesh is one of the core functions of 'Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics' (BBS). Initially, national income accounting was a joint activity of BBS and Planning Commission. Since 1975, BBS has been engaged in calculating national accounts entirely on its own. It started compiling and publishing GDP and other national income accounting aggregates in 1972 by following production and expenditure
approaches in line with the concepts and classifications of the 1968 UN System of National Accounts (SNA-1968). The fiscal-year 1972-73 was used as the base year for constant price estimates until 1988-89. The base year was then changed to 1984-85 in 1988-89; 1995-96 in 2000; and lastly 2005-06 in 2013 by adhering to the stipulations of SNA-1993.

Now, 2015-16 is being used as the new base-year with effect from July 2020 by following the latest system of national accounting (SNA-2008). As a result, the number of sectors measured has jumped to 24 from the previous 15, thereby expanding the scope of GDP. The new sectors are: mobile and agent banking; dairy and poultry farming; nurseries; latkon-dragonfruit-strawberry, capsicum and mushroom; housing; cable television; internet; and helicopter service. But many observers have challenged BBS by claiming that these sectors were already taken into account in the past in one form or another under sectors like banking, agriculture and industries. Consequently, no direct linkage can be logically established between the changes in base-year for GDP calculation and its large-scale boom.

Economists also complain about the method adopted by BBS for CPI (consumer price index)-based calculation of inflation. There are allegations that the annual average inflation rate is shown to be less by undertaking surveys at opportune moments when produced crops are harvested or there is lesser food inflation. Besides, the household income is also shown to be more as inflation is not deducted. Moreover, non-food inflation is allegedly shown to be less in years when the food inflation becomes excessive.

Criticisms have often come by the country's leading think-tanks regarding the system of GDP measurement in Bangladesh as well as its credibility. Questions were raised about the quality of GDP statistics during a discussion held at Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) in 2019-20. GDP growth rate can be judged or evaluated from two perspectives. One is income inequality, which is constantly getting worse in Bangladesh as revealed by official data. The other is employment, which has not improved despite claims of high growth rate. A similar
analysis made by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) claimed there was lack of consistency between remittances and high growth. The high industrial growth as shown by official GDP figures also did not match with the figures for private investments. Besides, the gradual decline in incremental capital output ratio also raises questions, as Bangladesh ranks very poorly in the global cost of doing business chart.

A previous analysis by the Centre for Policy Dialogue showed that despite claims of high growth rate, commensurate contributions to GDP by relevant sectors were not being observed. As there have not been sufficient investments against high growth, the labour productivity should have risen. But no technological or innovative transformation has taken place in Bangladesh in recent times that could enhance the productivity radically. The workers' income should also have increased in case of productivity improvement. But even official data show the reverse to be true. The GDP shown by BBS has not at all been realistic in recent times and CPD sought explanation from BBS on how GDP was being calculated.

This controversy surrounding GDP in Bangladesh had especially become acute during the previous decade in the wake of worsening democratic deficits in the country. For example, the growth in agriculture sector was negative and the remittances also decreased in 2015-16, but the growth rate was shown to be 7.11 per cent. The growth rate was again shown to be 7.28 per cent in 2016-17, but the remittances had decreased by over 14 per cent and the export growth was marginally above 1 per cent. The growth rate was then shown to be 7.86 per cent in 2017-18 following initial projection of 7.65 per cent despite negligible increases in productive capacity, investment and employment.

The GDP data claimed by BBS have not been realistic even in recent times, as evident from the provisional figures for 2019-20 that showed a growth of 5.24 per cent amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The whole country was under an informal lockdown (general holiday) from March 26 to May 29, and mostly the
garments factories were opened in the manufacturing sector in June. Besides, the hotels and restaurants, construction and transport sectors by and large remained closed during the March-June quarter. But instead of showing a negative growth, the manufacturing, construction, hotels & restaurants, and transport, storage & communication sectors (accounting for 44 per cent of GDP) were shown by BBS to have recorded growth rates of 5.48 per cent. 9.06 per cent per cent, 6.46 per cent and 6.19 per cent respectively. These figures also contradicted significant declines in two other indicators, viz. exports and revenue collection, which are usually positively correlated to GDP. Besides, BBS itself claimed that there had been 82 per cent fall in manufacturing output during April 2020, which was most likely to hold true for May as well because of the general holiday. Ultimately, BBS had to concede its lapses when the final GDP growth rate figure for 2019-20 was shown to be 3.51 per cent.

The country's leading economists have all along raised questions about the authenticity of GDP figures provisionally announced by BBS, even claiming that growth rate figures have now assumed the shape of a political number. A CPD executive director had commented in the past, "A kind of infatuation appears to have grown among the country's policy-makers regarding growth. Growth data are therefore being used politically. Exaggerating growth cannot be beneficial; it does not help policy-making". Even a former secretary of the statistics division claimed at a citizens' dialogue in 2019 that she had seen how development-related statistics were polished or doctored during her tenure. The problem becomes even more acute when an authoritarian regime tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy in an attempt to hide its democratic deficits.

It is sad that Bangladesh has not yet been able to develop a credible statistical system even after 50 years of existence. This lack of credibility of statistical methods needs to be addressed swiftly. There should be a transparent dialogue on the subject by involving all stakeholders, in addition to streamlining the statistical system. Otherwise, the real picture of the country's socio-economic growth can never
be gauged properly, which in turn proves to be a hindrance to adopting development policies and programmes and undertaking policy analysis in a realistic and logical manner.

Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed is a retired Additional Secretary and former Editor of Bangladesh Quarterly. hahmed1960@gmail.com









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_Someone needs to learn how Purchasing Power Parity calculations work.
Dodgy data × PPP multiplier = credible data!!! Genius._

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## PoondolotoPandalum

Destranator said:


> Data deception weakens policies​Helal Uddin Ahmed | Published: March 07, 2022 21:29:32 | Updated: March 09, 2022 23:02:05
> The average per capita income in Bangladesh was US$ 1,909 at the start of 2019-20 fiscal-year. Later, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) informed on August 11, 2020 that the per capita income had risen to US$ 2,064 in line with a GDP growth rate of 5.24 per cent during that fiscal-year. After that, the per capita income was shown to be US$ 2,227 at the end of 2020-21, which was followed by another BBS claim in November 2021 that the figure had crossed US$ 2,500. And according to the latest estimates of BBS, the per capita income rose by USD 327 to stand at US$ 2,554 at the end of 2021-22 fiscal-year. But this latest figure has not been the finding of any new survey or improvement in economic indices. Rather, it is mainly an outcome of changing the base year for calculation of GDP from the previous 2005-06 to the newly-set 2015-16 with effect from 2020-2021.
> 
> According to many economists, the BBS does not properly take into account the negative impact of inflation while calculating national income, labour income, household income etc. Besides, the GDP and per capita income can also be inflated by showing lesser population, as GDP has to be divided by population for arriving at per capita income figures. Whereas most observers including development partners opine that the country's population is over 180 million now, the BBS shows it to be 163 million. As there has not been any population census in the country since 2011, the actual population as well as population growth rate of Bangladesh appears to be ambiguous and BBS has not done anything concrete to allay the suspicions. As in the past, its principled position appears to be satisfying the whims of relevant authorities or pleasing them with bloated figures instead of acting as truth-seekers with regard to socio-economic data of the country.
> 
> Estimation of national income accounts in Bangladesh is one of the core functions of 'Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics' (BBS). Initially, national income accounting was a joint activity of BBS and Planning Commission. Since 1975, BBS has been engaged in calculating national accounts entirely on its own. It started compiling and publishing GDP and other national income accounting aggregates in 1972 by following production and expenditure
> approaches in line with the concepts and classifications of the 1968 UN System of National Accounts (SNA-1968). The fiscal-year 1972-73 was used as the base year for constant price estimates until 1988-89. The base year was then changed to 1984-85 in 1988-89; 1995-96 in 2000; and lastly 2005-06 in 2013 by adhering to the stipulations of SNA-1993.
> 
> Now, 2015-16 is being used as the new base-year with effect from July 2020 by following the latest system of national accounting (SNA-2008). As a result, the number of sectors measured has jumped to 24 from the previous 15, thereby expanding the scope of GDP. The new sectors are: mobile and agent banking; dairy and poultry farming; nurseries; latkon-dragonfruit-strawberry, capsicum and mushroom; housing; cable television; internet; and helicopter service. But many observers have challenged BBS by claiming that these sectors were already taken into account in the past in one form or another under sectors like banking, agriculture and industries. Consequently, no direct linkage can be logically established between the changes in base-year for GDP calculation and its large-scale boom.
> 
> Economists also complain about the method adopted by BBS for CPI (consumer price index)-based calculation of inflation. There are allegations that the annual average inflation rate is shown to be less by undertaking surveys at opportune moments when produced crops are harvested or there is lesser food inflation. Besides, the household income is also shown to be more as inflation is not deducted. Moreover, non-food inflation is allegedly shown to be less in years when the food inflation becomes excessive.
> 
> Criticisms have often come by the country's leading think-tanks regarding the system of GDP measurement in Bangladesh as well as its credibility. Questions were raised about the quality of GDP statistics during a discussion held at Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) in 2019-20. GDP growth rate can be judged or evaluated from two perspectives. One is income inequality, which is constantly getting worse in Bangladesh as revealed by official data. The other is employment, which has not improved despite claims of high growth rate. A similar
> analysis made by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) claimed there was lack of consistency between remittances and high growth. The high industrial growth as shown by official GDP figures also did not match with the figures for private investments. Besides, the gradual decline in incremental capital output ratio also raises questions, as Bangladesh ranks very poorly in the global cost of doing business chart.
> 
> A previous analysis by the Centre for Policy Dialogue showed that despite claims of high growth rate, commensurate contributions to GDP by relevant sectors were not being observed. As there have not been sufficient investments against high growth, the labour productivity should have risen. But no technological or innovative transformation has taken place in Bangladesh in recent times that could enhance the productivity radically. The workers' income should also have increased in case of productivity improvement. But even official data show the reverse to be true. The GDP shown by BBS has not at all been realistic in recent times and CPD sought explanation from BBS on how GDP was being calculated.
> 
> This controversy surrounding GDP in Bangladesh had especially become acute during the previous decade in the wake of worsening democratic deficits in the country. For example, the growth in agriculture sector was negative and the remittances also decreased in 2015-16, but the growth rate was shown to be 7.11 per cent. The growth rate was again shown to be 7.28 per cent in 2016-17, but the remittances had decreased by over 14 per cent and the export growth was marginally above 1 per cent. The growth rate was then shown to be 7.86 per cent in 2017-18 following initial projection of 7.65 per cent despite negligible increases in productive capacity, investment and employment.
> 
> The GDP data claimed by BBS have not been realistic even in recent times, as evident from the provisional figures for 2019-20 that showed a growth of 5.24 per cent amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The whole country was under an informal lockdown (general holiday) from March 26 to May 29, and mostly the
> garments factories were opened in the manufacturing sector in June. Besides, the hotels and restaurants, construction and transport sectors by and large remained closed during the March-June quarter. But instead of showing a negative growth, the manufacturing, construction, hotels & restaurants, and transport, storage & communication sectors (accounting for 44 per cent of GDP) were shown by BBS to have recorded growth rates of 5.48 per cent. 9.06 per cent per cent, 6.46 per cent and 6.19 per cent respectively. These figures also contradicted significant declines in two other indicators, viz. exports and revenue collection, which are usually positively correlated to GDP. Besides, BBS itself claimed that there had been 82 per cent fall in manufacturing output during April 2020, which was most likely to hold true for May as well because of the general holiday. Ultimately, BBS had to concede its lapses when the final GDP growth rate figure for 2019-20 was shown to be 3.51 per cent.
> 
> The country's leading economists have all along raised questions about the authenticity of GDP figures provisionally announced by BBS, even claiming that growth rate figures have now assumed the shape of a political number. A CPD executive director had commented in the past, "A kind of infatuation appears to have grown among the country's policy-makers regarding growth. Growth data are therefore being used politically. Exaggerating growth cannot be beneficial; it does not help policy-making". Even a former secretary of the statistics division claimed at a citizens' dialogue in 2019 that she had seen how development-related statistics were polished or doctored during her tenure. The problem becomes even more acute when an authoritarian regime tries to paint a rosy picture of the economy in an attempt to hide its democratic deficits.
> 
> It is sad that Bangladesh has not yet been able to develop a credible statistical system even after 50 years of existence. This lack of credibility of statistical methods needs to be addressed swiftly. There should be a transparent dialogue on the subject by involving all stakeholders, in addition to streamlining the statistical system. Otherwise, the real picture of the country's socio-economic growth can never
> be gauged properly, which in turn proves to be a hindrance to adopting development policies and programmes and undertaking policy analysis in a realistic and logical manner.
> 
> Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed is a retired Additional Secretary and former Editor of Bangladesh Quarterly. hahmed1960@gmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ----------------------------
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _Someone needs to learn how Purchasing Power Parity calculations work.
> Dodgy data × PPP multiplier = credible data!!! Genius._




looks like that $2557 per capita figure after rebasing for the current FY is bogus when one looks at the latest IMF outlook. It more or less aligns with IMF's 2023 expected per capita income though. I think the number fudging was a way of diverting public opinion for the rise in poverty bought about by Covid, along with shaky initial handling of the vaccination program, among others 

At the end of the day, when companies or funding bodies are looking to invest in Bangladesh, they'll use IMF figures rather than BBS.

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## salute

PoondolotoPandalum said:


> looks like that $2557 per capita figure after rebasing for the current FY is bogus when one looks at the latest IMF outlook. It more or less aligns with IMF's 2023 expected per capita income though. I think the number fudging was a way of diverting public opinion for the rise in poverty bought about by Covid, along with shaky initial handling of the vaccination program, among others
> 
> At the end of the day, when companies or funding bodies are looking to invest in Bangladesh, they'll use IMF figures rather than BBS.


I mean everyone outside the Bangladesh know the reality of that economy. Hence the FDI (real) hasn't crossed a $billion in recent years. Bangladesh FDI numbers include reinvested earnings of earlier investment. No matter what PDF Bangos want us believe real proof of pudding is in the investment and GOB revenue, not the made up BBS GDP figures.

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## Destranator

*Puzzling low tax-GDP ratio*

Sohel Parvez
Mon May 16, 2022 09:30 AM Last update on: Mon May 16, 2022 11:11 AM

*While official data portrays the burgeoning growth of Bangladesh's economy, tax collection relative to the gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the size of the economy, shows an almost opposite trend.*
The tax collection as a percentage of GDP has been stuck at around 7.6 per cent, the lowest in South Asia and one of the lowest in the world. This prompts economists to question the disconnect since revenue receipts should increase in line with the expansion of the economy.

"This shows a big mismatch," said Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling.
"It shows that there is no relation between GDP growth and revenue collection although the tax-to-GDP ratio increases in other countries because of the growth of the economy. In the case of Bangladesh, it is a puzzle."


Over the past decade, the GDP grew 6.5 per cent annually, on average. The average annual growth of tax collection was 11 per cent.
As a result, Bangladesh continues to languish at the bottom among the South Asian countries when it comes to the tax-to-GDP ratio.
Among the least-developed countries set to graduate to the developing nations' category in the next four years, Bangladesh has the lowest tax collection as a percentage of GDP, data from the World Bank showed.

Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio is also the lowest among the low-middle-income countries, and the ratio declined in the past decade, according to Raihan, also a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka.
"Does it mean that the additional GDP growth has remained out of the tax net? Does it mean that the economy has become more informal? Is it that tax avoidance is encouraged? It is a puzzle," he said.
The new value-added tax law, which came into effect several years ago, suffers from distortions while a large number of people are exempted from tax payments.
For example, the garment and textile sector, which provides guaranteed income, enjoys just half the corporate tax rate applied to non-listed companies.
Citing a previous study he co-authored, Prof Raihan says tax exemptions cost Bangladesh 2 per cent of its GDP.
"We have also had serious problems in the execution of laws. There are also a large number of people who don't want reforms. It seems that there is a nexus among a section of taxpayers and revenue officials against reforms."
However, this may not be the only case.
*Economists are, in fact, doubtful about the GDP growth estimates in the first place, since the growth numbers do not commensurate with the real data such as revenue collection, debt, export-import, and credit growth.*
*"The growth that is shown does not relate with reality because an overstatement emerges if GDP is compared with other data," said Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.*
Besides, the tax base is low compared to the size of the economy. Collection efficiency is also low. There are many loopholes in the tax policies, he added.
"As a result, small fishes escape the tax net, which is also not strong enough to catch big fishes."
In Bangladesh, there are plenty of tax benefits under various names: holidays, exemptions and waivers. So, Bangladesh loses a huge amount of tax because of the prevalence of tax breaks.
"The fact is money is really going out of taxpayers' pockets. But it is not going to the state coffer. The money is going to the pockets of various intermediaries [tax lawyers, dishonest revenue officials] in the system," Hussain said.
So, if the lost revenue is taken into account, the tax-to-GDP ratio would have increased.
*"No country will be able to become an upper-middle-income country with such a low tax-to-GDP ratio," said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh.
"The tax-GDP ratio should be 16-17 per cent."*
He says the failure to increase tax collection is affecting the whole fiscal management.
People's out-of-pocket expenditure is increasing for a lack of public investment in the healthcare sector and many families go broke because of higher medical expenses. Similarly, Bangladesh cannot ensure quality education for inadequate investment.
"We have to borrow to build infrastructure and that loan is increasing at a higher rate," Mansur said. "There is no room for comfort if we can't invest from our own sources and have to run by borrowing."
At a programme in Dhaka on Saturday, Debapriya Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said Bangladesh is a country of 16.50 crore people and 74 lakh people have tax identification numbers. Of them, only 23 lakh file income tax returns.

"Why hasn't the number of taxpayers gone up? If per capita GDP has increased, then why don't people pay taxes?" he questioned.

Mansur, also a former economist of the International Monetary Fund, suggests reforming the tax system.

"It appears that political will for reforms is low. But without increasing revenue collection, it is not possible to fulfil the expectations of the people and the government. Politicians have to realise this."

Increased revenue collection is also needed to become a developed nation.

"Our economic growth will slow if we can't invest in physical and social infrastructures. Income distribution will be more skewed if we can't boost tax collection as tax policy is a tool for ensuring better income distribution," added Mansur.

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/economy/news/puzzling-low-tax-gdp-ratio-3024491


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## rainbowrascal

*The National Board of Revenue (NBR) wants to reduce tax exemptions significantly for various projects in public and private sectors.
*
Instead, the revenue board has requested all ministries and divisions to take extra allocations from the finance ministry to pay tax, VAT and duty. To this end, the NBR on Thursday sent a letter to 281 organisations, including ministries, divisions and autonomous firms.

According to the letter, tax exemption on various development projects is a major obstacle to increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio.

The NBR hopes that the country's tax-to-GDP ratio will be doubled if such taxes are levied instead of exemptions.

*According to the NBR, the tax exemptions given in various sectors every year amount to around Tk250,000 crore.

*
"It [the letter] is a clear message from the NBR that it will not offer tax exemptions in the future," says a NBR official seeking anonymity.

Agreeing with the NBR's move, Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, an economist and public policy analyst, told The Business Standard that in the interest of tax collection, financial transparency and reduction of inter-sectoral inequalities, the wholesale tax exemptions should be abolished.

After paying the tax money to the government coffers, if necessary, they can have additional funds allocated by showing it as expenditure, he noted.

The economist thinks that other projects and many groups are taking advantage of the facility.

Such tax benefits should be given to those in special needs, Dr Debapriya said.

The finance minister is also not in favour of such exemptions. In his budget speech for FY20, he said tax exemptions in various sectors would be avoided as much as possible. "We will refrain from issuing SRO [Statutory Regulatory Order] until it is an emergency, which will bring transparency in revenue management. The confidence of businesspeople in the government will also go up," he added.

NBR Chairman Abu Hena Md Rahmatul Muneem in different discussions also expressed his position against the wholesale tax exemptions.

The NBR conducted an internal study on exemptions during the preparation of the budget for the fiscal 2020-21.

The NBR estimated that the tax-GDP ratio was 9.9% in FY20, but it would have been 17.81% had the government not provided tax exemptions

It said the government provided tax exemptions amounting to around Tk2.5 lakh crore to facilitate growth in different sectors in FY20. It realised Tk2.18 lakh crore in revenue that year against a target of Tk3 lakh crore.

Of the total exemptions, Tk46,755 crore was exempted for importing raw materials, capital machinery, and other goods, while Tk1,51,738 crore was waived against bond facilities for export-oriented industries.









NBR wants to come out of tax exemptions


The National Board of Revenue (NBR) wants to reduce tax exemptions significantly for various projects in public and private sectors. Instead, the revenue board has requested all ministries and divisions to take extra allocations from the finance ministry to pay tax, VAT and duty.




www.tbsnews.net


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## Destranator

Unmeaning per capita income increase, GDP growth​
Published: 00:00, May 12,2022

AN INCREASE in the per capita income to $2,824 in the outgoing 2022 financial year from $2,591 the financial year before, an estimate that the government has done but experts have doubted, appears not to have any reflection on living standards of citizens. A growing number of poor people, with 32.4 million surveyed by the Power and Participation Research Centre and the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development in November 2021 to have freshly slid below the poverty threshold during the still ongoing protracted Covid outbreak, and a widening income inequality make the proposition meaningless. The planning minister who made the per capita income disclosure at a briefing at the Planning Commission, however, failed to give any figure for the current number of poor people and noted that it is for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics to calculate. The per capita income, which is the national income divided by the population size, appears not to have added to the standards of living as the economic benefits that are created in the economy do not reach people of all strata commensurately. In addition, *experts have also doubted the figure of the gross domestic product, which is used along with the population estimate to calculate the per capita income.

The provisional estimate of the national statistical office, as the minister said, has put the growth of the gross domestic product at 7.25 per cent for the outgoing financial year while the gross domestic product grew by 6.94 per cent in the 2021 financial year. The official provisional estimates put the growth of the agriculture sector at 2.20 per cent
for the outgoing financial against the figure of 3.7 per cent the financial year before. The growth of the manufacturing sector has been put at 10.44 per cent against the figure of 10.29 per cent for the 2021 financial year and the growth of the services sector at 6.31 per cent against the figure of 5.73 per cent for the 2021 financial year. A former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist seeks to say that an estimated 7.2 per cent growth of the gross domestic product is not convincing and a double-digit growth of the manufacturing sector amidst a negative growth in mining and quarrying is doubtful. A macroeconomist and public policy analyst also seeks to doubt the 11.71 per cent growth of the cottage, medium, small and* *micro enterprises as being high. The minister said that the income of both the poor and the rich increased despite a growing inequality, but the National Human Development Report 2021, which the Economic Relations Division released in January 2022, shows that the richest 5 per cent held about 30 per cent of the national income in 2016 while the share of the poor in the national income remained less than 0.3 per cent.*
While there is nothing to boast of an increase in per capita income, which presents a mean value of the national income and not the picture of income distribution, and the growth of the gross domestic product, which fails to create economic benefits for all, the government must set issues of the calculation of the per capita income and the gross domestic product in a credible and meaningful manner.








Unmeaning per capita income increase, GDP growth


AN INCREASE in the per capita income to $2,824 in the outgoing 2022 financial year from $2,591 the financial year before, an estimate that the government has done but experts have doubted, appears not to have any reflection on living...




www.newagebd.net


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## Khan_21

Destranator said:


> Unmeaning per capita income increase, GDP growth​
> Published: 00:00, May 12,2022
> 
> AN INCREASE in the per capita income to $2,824 in the outgoing 2022 financial year from $2,591 the financial year before, an estimate that the government has done but experts have doubted, appears not to have any reflection on living standards of citizens. A growing number of poor people, with 32.4 million surveyed by the Power and Participation Research Centre and the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development in November 2021 to have freshly slid below the poverty threshold during the still ongoing protracted Covid outbreak, and a widening income inequality make the proposition meaningless. The planning minister who made the per capita income disclosure at a briefing at the Planning Commission, however, failed to give any figure for the current number of poor people and noted that it is for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics to calculate. The per capita income, which is the national income divided by the population size, appears not to have added to the standards of living as the economic benefits that are created in the economy do not reach people of all strata commensurately. In addition, *experts have also doubted the figure of the gross domestic product, which is used along with the population estimate to calculate the per capita income.
> 
> The provisional estimate of the national statistical office, as the minister said, has put the growth of the gross domestic product at 7.25 per cent for the outgoing financial year while the gross domestic product grew by 6.94 per cent in the 2021 financial year. The official provisional estimates put the growth of the agriculture sector at 2.20 per cent
> for the outgoing financial against the figure of 3.7 per cent the financial year before. The growth of the manufacturing sector has been put at 10.44 per cent against the figure of 10.29 per cent for the 2021 financial year and the growth of the services sector at 6.31 per cent against the figure of 5.73 per cent for the 2021 financial year. A former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist seeks to say that an estimated 7.2 per cent growth of the gross domestic product is not convincing and a double-digit growth of the manufacturing sector amidst a negative growth in mining and quarrying is doubtful. A macroeconomist and public policy analyst also seeks to doubt the 11.71 per cent growth of the cottage, medium, small and* *micro enterprises as being high. The minister said that the income of both the poor and the rich increased despite a growing inequality, but the National Human Development Report 2021, which the Economic Relations Division released in January 2022, shows that the richest 5 per cent held about 30 per cent of the national income in 2016 while the share of the poor in the national income remained less than 0.3 per cent.*
> While there is nothing to boast of an increase in per capita income, which presents a mean value of the national income and not the picture of income distribution, and the growth of the gross domestic product, which fails to create economic benefits for all, the government must set issues of the calculation of the per capita income and the gross domestic product in a credible and meaningful manner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Unmeaning per capita income increase, GDP growth
> 
> 
> AN INCREASE in the per capita income to $2,824 in the outgoing 2022 financial year from $2,591 the financial year before, an estimate that the government has done but experts have doubted, appears not to have any reflection on living...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newagebd.net



This has been going on for a long time now. There are so many articles accusing them of data fudging to make themselves look good. Who keeps on doing press conferences every month to give an updated per capita income?

Posters like @UKBengali @Black_cats @BananaRepublicUK have convinced themselves otherwise. Dhaka looks like an African city but the way they keep spinning these figures it will soon surpass Dubai on datasheets.


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## Destranator

Khan_21 said:


> This has been going on for a long time now. There are so many articles accusing them of data fudging to make themselves look good. Who keeps on doing press conferences every month to give an updated per capita income?
> 
> Posters like @UKBengali @Black_cats @BananaRepublicUK have convinced themselves otherwise. Dhaka looks like an African city but the way they keep spinning these figures it will soon surpass Dubai on datasheets.


Dhaka is an unplanned concrete jungle which is over populated beyond repair so it is unfair to judge Bangladesh's economic growth by what Dhaka looks like.
Besides, Bangladesh rarely takes out loans for cosmetic projects. Whatever Dhaka has is mostly locally funded.

Bangladesh is growing fast - anyone who travels around the country can tell by the improving rural infrastructure (roads, electricity distribution, etc.) , increased mechanisation of farming, new factories, mushrooming high end eateries and shopping centres, etc..

The issue here is accruacy of BBS data.

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## Khan_21

Destranator said:


> Dhaka is an unplanned concrete jungle which is over populated beyond repair so it is unfair to judge Bangladesh's economic growth by what Dhaka looks like.
> Bangladesh is growing fast - anyone who travels around the country can tell by the improving rural infrastructure (roads, electricity distribution, etc.) , increased mechanisation of farming, etc..
> 
> The issue here is accruacy of BBS data.



This is my point exactly. It is growing no doubt but not to the extent that the government is making it out to be. At this point its just funny following a new press conference every month with a minister saying our per capita has increased so and so.

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> Dhaka is an unplanned concrete jungle which is over populated beyond repair so it is unfair to judge Bangladesh's economic growth by what Dhaka looks like.
> Besides, Bangladesh rarely takes out loans for cosmetic projects. Whatever Dhaka has is mostly locally funded.
> 
> Bangladesh is growing fast - anyone who travels around the country can tell by the improving rural infrastructure (roads, electricity distribution, etc.) , increased mechanisation of farming, new factories, mushrooming high end eateries and shopping centres, etc..
> 
> The issue here is accruacy of BBS data.



Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?


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## Destranator

Indos said:


> Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?


Yes but at a high level. They do not reveal how they work out their industry specific data which is the main cause for concern. There have been historical accusations against BBS of calculating overall GDP backwards to arrive at the minister's personal projection at the beginning of the Fiscal Year.







বাংলাদেশ পরিসংখ্যান ব্যুরো


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-2022 (p)New Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2020-21 (Final) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2015-16 to 2020-21 (p) (Base year 2015-16) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2020-2021 (p) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Ban




www.bbs.gov.bd


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## Black_cats

Khan_21 said:


> This is my point exactly. It is growing no doubt but not to the extent that the government is making it out to be. At this point its just funny following a new press conference every month with a minister saying our per capita has increased so and so.



You came at it again. Even if BBS data is not accurate it can not be by big margin like government is saying 8% but in reality it’s 3-4%. At most it can be like 7%. The thing is you can not fake data for long by big margin. Bangladesh is maintaining 6% plus growth for around 20 years now. That represent the strength of the economy not faking data.

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## Indos

Destranator said:


> Yes but at a high level. They do not reveal how they work out their industry specific data which is the main cause for concern.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> বাংলাদেশ পরিসংখ্যান ব্যুরো
> 
> 
> Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-2022 (p)New Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2020-21 (Final) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2015-16 to 2020-21 (p) (Base year 2015-16) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2020-2021 (p) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Ban
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbs.gov.bd



Indonesia has dominant domestic market into GDP, around 50 %. Usually the growth of retail sales is not different with the total GDP growth

For industry sector, we can see on PMI data released by IHS Markit. I see correlation on the GDP growth as well with this as I see from experience

Agricultural growth can be seen on the export and import data, I mean if you import huge rice from India, I believe the growth will be bleak since majority of agriculture product for BD must be rice cultivation

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## Black_cats

Indos said:


> Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?



Here the right question is whether a big portion of the growth is coming from formal or informal or black economy as black economy also counted towards GDP. Plus high value mega projects that are going on also adding to the GDP but Bangladesh needs a sustainable growth.

I am not economist but a big portion of the retail sales has no paper trail that you will calculate accurately as a result government losing big portion of vat.


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## UKBengali

Khan_21 said:


> This has been going on for a long time now. There are so many articles accusing them of data fudging to make themselves look good. Who keeps on doing press conferences every month to give an updated per capita income?
> 
> Posters like @UKBengali @Black_cats @BananaRepublicUK have convinced themselves otherwise. Dhaka looks like an African city but the way they keep spinning these figures it will soon surpass Dubai on datasheets.





If this gives you some comfort so be it.

The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?

Here are some facts:

1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.

2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?

3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.

4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.

5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago. 

For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.

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## Indos

Black_cats said:


> Here the right question is whether a big portion of the growth is coming from formal or informal or black economy as black economy also counted towards GDP. Plus high value mega projects that are going on also adding to the GDP but Bangladesh needs a sustainable growth.
> 
> I am not economist but a big portion of the retail sales has no paper trail that you will calculate accurately as a result government losing big portion of vat.



Formal sales growth I believe will be similar with informal sales growth. This is just logic, raising demand will go to both formal and informal sector. I just want to see the growth number whether it is similar with total GDP growth number, not the total aggregate number which is difficult to be assessed for some one with no data at all

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## Indos

UKBengali said:


> If this gives you some comfort so be it.
> 
> The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?
> 
> Here are some facts:
> 
> 1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.
> 
> 2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?
> 
> 3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.
> 
> 4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.
> 
> 5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago.
> 
> For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.



Bro, BD trade is in deficit ( export-import ), the balance will actually decrease BD GDP figure

So the main thing is for BD :

1. Domestic Consumption 
2. Investment ( FDI + Domestic Investment )
3. Government spending ( can be seen on the state budget )

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## UKBengali

Indos said:


> Bro, BD trade is in deficit ( export-import ), the balance will actually decrease BD GDP figure
> 
> So the main thing is for BD :
> 
> 1. Domestic Consumption
> 2. Investment ( FDI + Domestic Investment )
> 3. Government spending ( can be seen on the state budget )






You forget remittance inflow from expatriates.


Also a lot of us settled abroad give money to our relatives back home all the time. From just my family you are looking at thousands of US dollars per year to our relations back home and charity to the poor.


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## Indos

UKBengali said:


> You forget remittance inflow from expatriates.
> 
> 
> Also a lot of us settled abroad give money to our relatives back home all the time. From just my family you are looking at thousands of US dollars per year to our relations back home and charity to the poor.



The inflow will not change GDP number unless it is used to buy something which is made in BD or service provided by BD companies ( or informal business ) or used to make investment. All data that I provided minus gov spending

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## UKBengali

Indos said:


> The inflow will not change GDP number unless it is used to buy something which is made in BD or service provided by BD companies ( or informal business )





Yes that is exactly what it is used for.

That is how BD has managed to get to nearly 50 billion US dollars in foreign reserves despite having a trade deficit for many decades.

BD consumers buy very few products that are not mainly produced in BD.

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## Khan_21

UKBengali said:


> If this gives you some comfort so be it.
> 
> The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?
> 
> Here are some facts:
> 
> 1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.
> 
> 2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?
> 
> 3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.
> 
> 4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.
> 
> 5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago.
> 
> For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.



No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month. 

BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.

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## damiendehorn2

Khan_21 said:


> No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month.
> 
> BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.


Actually the Taka is deliberately undervalued not over valued. This is to help in our exports, same thing that China has been doing for some time.

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## UKBengali

Khan_21 said:


> No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month.
> 
> BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.








Here are some IMF figures for average annual GDP per capita growth PPP of BD and Pakistan over the last 2 decades.

2000-2009 BD 4.5% Pakistan 2.5%
2010-2019 BD 5.8% Pakistan 2.0%

Currently BD is set to grow it's per capita 6-7% this year compared to 2% for Pakistan.

IMF also says that both BD and Pakistan are tied at per capita PPP at the 6.5K USD mark.

These are all PER CAPITA PPP growth rates and so are 100% reliable.

What do you think is going to happen in by say 2040 dude if historical growth rate holds as looks likely?


I have calculated and worked out that BD in per capita PPP will be 2.2x that of Pakistan and the two countries will look totally different both in terms of the way their towns and cities look, infrastructure and the living standards of their citizens.


PS - I am being VERY CONSERVATIVE for BD as it looks likely to grow it's per capita at more like 7%+ between now and 2040 and so then we would have an even greater difference like 3x. Then reality will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will HURT VERY BADLY and your world will be SHATTERED.


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## Khan_21

UKBengali said:


> Here are some IMF figures for average annual GDP per capita growth PPP of BD and Pakistan over the last 2 decades.
> 
> 2000-2009 BD 4.5% Pakistan 2.5%
> 2010-2019 BD 5.8% Pakistan 2.0%
> 
> Currently BD is set to grow it's per capita 6-7% this year compared to 2% for Pakistan.
> 
> IMF also says that both BD and Pakistan are tied at per capita PPP at the 6.5K USD mark.
> 
> These are all PER CAPITA PPP growth rates and so are 100% reliable.
> 
> What do you think is going to happen in by say 2040 dude if historical growth rate holds as looks likely?
> 
> 
> I have calculated and worked out that BD in per capita PPP will be 2.2x that of Pakistan and the two countries will look totally different both in terms of the way their towns and cities look, infrastructure and the living standards of their citizens.
> 
> 
> PS - I am being VERY CONSERVATIVE for BD as it looks likely to grow it's per capita at more like 7%+ between now and 2040 and so then we would have an even greater difference like 3x. Then reality will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will HURT VERY BADLY and your world will be SHATTERED.











Pakistan’s startup likely to attract $600m investment this year: CEO Ignite


Pakistan’s startup ecosystem is ready for lift-off now as the investment forecast in Pakistani startups is more than $600 million by end of this year,




newztodays.com





*Pakistan’s startup ecosystem is ready for lift-off now as the investment forecast in Pakistani startups is more than $600 million by end of this year, said CEO Ignite here on Wednesday.*

We are probably the most exciting startup destination in Asia right now. Bd got 1/3 of this funding this year. We are set to have our own unicorn startup this year. 









Dawood hopes country’s exports to reach $50bn in FY 2023 | The Express Tribune


Country would soon begin exporting its own indigenously manufactured durable goods such as mobile and motorcycle




tribune.com.pk





*ISLAMABAD:*
Adviser for Commerce and Investment Razzaq Dawood on Sunday voiced hope that the country’s exports would reach $50 billion owing to the policy of trade diversification in potential trade sectors by the last fiscal year of the current government – 2023.

He said that recently a Karachi-based electrical and electronics goods company ‘INOVI Telecom’ had just exported the first consignment of 5,500 “Made in Pakistan” 4G mobile phones to the Middle East.

The advisor said that this would be the beginning of an era of high value-added exports from Pakistan, marking the beginning of product diversification from our traditional to non-traditional sectors.

“I urge other mobile manufacturers in Pakistan to emulate this example and export their products,” he said.

On top of this we just exported our first SUV.









Pakistan exports its first SUV class vehicle | The Express Tribune


Pakistan is the only country outside of China to produce the latest model of Changan Oshan X7




tribune.com.pk





*KARACHI:*
Pakistan has exported its first vehicle – made by Master Changan Motors – under the new Auto Industry Development and Export Policy (AIDEP 2021-26), according to a press release issued by the company on Thursday.

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## Rushd Alam

UKBengali said:


> IMF also says that both BD and Pakistan are tied at per capita PPP at the 6.5K USD mark.


Hi bro, I am having hard time finding pakistans gdp per capita in ppp.. I looked up imf website, also worldbank but with no luck. If you please kindly share where pakistans ppp gdp per capita is 6.5k. What I found are the below which shows tgeir ppp amount to be around 5k


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## Khan_21

Rushd Alam said:


> Hi bro, I am having hard time finding pakistans gdp per capita in ppp.. I looked up imf website, also worldbank but with no luck. If you please kindly share where pakistans ppp gdp per capita is 6.5k. What I found are the below which shows tgeir ppp amount to be around 5k



Latest IMF for April 2022









Report for Selected Countries and Subjects






www.imf.org

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## Khan_21

UKBengali said:


> Here are some IMF figures for average annual GDP per capita growth PPP of BD and Pakistan over the last 2 decades.
> 
> 2000-2009 BD 4.5% Pakistan 2.5%
> 2010-2019 BD 5.8% Pakistan 2.0%
> 
> Currently BD is set to grow it's per capita 6-7% this year compared to 2% for Pakistan.
> 
> IMF also says that both BD and Pakistan are tied at per capita PPP at the 6.5K USD mark.
> 
> These are all PER CAPITA PPP growth rates and so are 100% reliable.
> 
> What do you think is going to happen in by say 2040 dude if historical growth rate holds as looks likely?
> 
> 
> I have calculated and worked out that BD in per capita PPP will be 2.2x that of Pakistan and the two countries will look totally different both in terms of the way their towns and cities look, infrastructure and the living standards of their citizens.
> 
> 
> PS - I am being VERY CONSERVATIVE for BD as it looks likely to grow it's per capita at more like 7%+ between now and 2040 and so then we would have an even greater difference like 3x. Then reality will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will HURT VERY BADLY and your world will be SHATTERED.



There is absolutely no way to predict where the world will be in 2040. Pakistan is able to achieve all of this despite having 2000Km border with the most unstable country in the world. I would have loved to see what BD did if faced with 10 million refugees and a share a border with a country that has been at war for 50 odd years. 

Despite all of that today our startup market is one of the fastest in asia , we just exported our first SUV and our exports have increased by 40%.

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## rainbowrascal

Khan_21 said:


> Our exports have increased by 40%.


But import growth is even more, so it actually isn't helpful. Bangladesh's export is supposed to cross 59bn this year against import of 82bn.
On the other hand pakistan's export will be 38bn against 87bn import. 
Our negative balance is already giving us a hard time, so we can imagine what's it like for pakistan with 4 times less forex


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## UKBengali

Khan_21 said:


> There is absolutely no way to predict where the world will be in 2040. Pakistan is able to achieve all of this despite having 2000Km border with the most unstable country in the world. I would have loved to see what BD did if faced with 10 million refugees and a share a border with a country that has been at war for 50 odd years.
> 
> Despite all of that today our startup market is one of the fastest in asia , we just exported our first SUV and our exports have increased by 40%.





Yes there is with a high degree with probability in the case of BD and Pakistan.

The average annual GDP per capita growth rates of BD and Pakistan from 2000-2019 illustrates where the two countries are going economically.

Pakistan is likely to carry on with its unstable governments while BD is likely to flourish under quasi-dictatorship till around 2030 at least.

Forget anecdotes but look at exports between BD and Pakistan for this fiscal - Pakistan is likely to hit 30 billion US dollars while BD would be at 60 billion US dollars.


As for this SUV of yours, it is an assembly job of a Chinese product just like the JF-17 is. The value-add from Pakistan in both cases are minimal and the sales will be too low to make any appreciable difference. Ok as regards JF-17, Pakistan does make some of the airframe from scratch to be fair.

In contrast with BD, 4K TVs are almost completely designed and manufactured from scratch and these products are now available and selling in developed countries around the world. With current sales already this fiscal(July 2021-June 2020) Walton will surpass the 100 million US dollar export target they have set and the company is odds on to make 1 billion US dollar annual sales before 2025 now.

Sorry but BD is playing in a whole different economic league to Pakistan now. If Pakistan can have half the per capita GDP PPP of BD in say 2035 then it would be doing well by its standards.

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## Khan_21

UKBengali said:


> Yes there is with a high degree with probability in the case of BD and Pakistan.
> 
> The average annual GDP per capita growth rates of BD and Pakistan from 2000-2019 illustrates where the two countries are going economically.
> 
> Pakistan is likely to carry on with its unstable governments while BD is likely to flourish under quasi-dictatorship till around 2030 at least.
> 
> Forget anecdotes but look at exports between BD and Pakistan for this fiscal - Pakistan is likely to hit 30 billion US dollars while BD would be at 60 billion US dollars.
> 
> 
> As for this SUV of yours, it is an assembly job of a Chinese product just like the JF-17 is. The value-add from Pakistan in both cases are minimal and the sales will be too low to make any appreciable difference. Ok as regards JF-17, Pakistan does make some of the airframe from scratch to be fair.
> 
> In contrast with BD, 4K TVs are almost completely designed and manufactured from scratch and these products are now available and selling in developed countries around the world. With current sales already this fiscal(July 2021-June 2020) Walton will surpass the 100 million US dollar export target they have set and the company is odds on to make 1 billion US dollar annual sales before 2025 n
> Sorry but BD is playing in a whole different economic league to Pakistan now. If Pakistan can have half the per capita GDP PPP of BD in say 2035 then it would be doing well by its standards.



Like I said we have to deal with Afghanistan's unstable situation forever. Despite all of that we just had our best year in a long time with 6% growth and double digit growth in most sectors. 









GDP growth reaches 5.97pc; per capita income $1,798 in FY22


ISLAMABAD: After rebasing of national accounts, the economic growth touched 5.97 percent in the current financial year ending June 2022, slightly faster than the 5.74 in the previous year, the...




www.thenews.com.pk





$60 billion? When did that happen? You guys have a habit of celebrating things in advance. Our exports have much more variety to them its not 90% garments. This year we did $32 billion. Our startup market is 4X times bigger than yours. Our mobile phones just got exported to middle east. 

If you think Sheikh hasina is good for economy you think she is going to be alive for 30 years? I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate and most probably there will be civil war/instability when she goes. Our PPP is still ahead despite having a country on our border that has been at war for 50 years and the devastating effects that comes with it.


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## UKBengali

Khan_21 said:


> Like I said we have to deal with Afghanistan's unstable situation forever. Despite all of that we just had our best year in a long time with 6% growth and double digit growth in most sectors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GDP growth reaches 5.97pc; per capita income $1,798 in FY22
> 
> 
> ISLAMABAD: After rebasing of national accounts, the economic growth touched 5.97 percent in the current financial year ending June 2022, slightly faster than the 5.74 in the previous year, the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thenews.com.pk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> $60 billion? When did that happen? You guys have a habit of celebrating things in advance. Our exports have much more variety to them its not 90% garments. This year we did $32 billion. Our startup market is 4X times bigger than yours. Our mobile phones just got exported to middle east.
> 
> If you think Sheikh hasina is good for economy you think she is going to be alive for 30 years? I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate and most probably there will be civil war/instability when she goes. Our PPP is still ahead despite having a country on our border that has been at war for 50 years and the devastating effects that comes with it.





60 billion is the forecast as BD is already on about 50 billion US dollars of exports in the first 10 months of the current fiscal(July 2021- June 2022).

BD already exports mobile phones to USA. I don't know about how much of the phones that Pakistani companies design and manufacture but in BD they design and make everything apart from the SOC, camera lens and maybe the transmitter/receiver. 

No, Hasina is not going to be around for another 30 years but she should be around till 2030. BD by then will be a decently educated and well off mature society and we may either move to full democracy or carry on with another person from BAL as new leader. Whichever way BD will not be in "civil war" as BD society is mature and of a dominant ethnic group.

Where did you get that 90% of BD exports are garments? It is around 85% when you just consider goods. With services added in then we are looking at around 75%. 

Garments as proportion of total exports has been declining for some years but it does not show yet in a significant way as garment exports are massive to the non-garment exports. Sometime later on this decade we shall see garment exports dropping appreciably year on year. As an example electronic goods exports has been growing at many 100s of per cent a year over the last 2 years and this is expected to continue for some more years before it drops off.


PS - No your PPP per capita is not ahead of BD. Like I already said both countries are 6.5K but BD will have a measureable lead in 2023 as it is on target to grow it's per capita at 7%+ this year. Pakistan is heading for 2-3% again.

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## rainbowrascal

Khan_21 said:


> If you think Sheikh hasina is good for economy you think she is going to be alive for 30 years? I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate and most probably there will be civil war/instability when she goes.


*I swear both indians and pakistanis want sheikh hasina dead 😂*

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## Black Tornado

rainbowrascal said:


> *I swear both indians and pakistanis want sheikh hasina dead 😂*


People in India have a positive perception of Hasina, tbh they just fear a radical mullah taking over as BD’s PM. Don’t take it otherwise, but this is what most people in India think.

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## damiendehorn2

Khan_21 said:


> Like I said we have to deal with Afghanistan's unstable situation forever. Despite all of that we just had our best year in a long time with 6% growth and double digit growth in most sectors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GDP growth reaches 5.97pc; per capita income $1,798 in FY22
> 
> 
> ISLAMABAD: After rebasing of national accounts, the economic growth touched 5.97 percent in the current financial year ending June 2022, slightly faster than the 5.74 in the previous year, the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thenews.com.pk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> $60 billion? When did that happen? You guys have a habit of celebrating things in advance. Our exports have much more variety to them its not 90% garments. This year we did $32 billion. Our startup market is 4X times bigger than yours. Our mobile phones just got exported to middle east.
> 
> If you think Sheikh hasina is good for economy you think she is going to be alive for 30 years? I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate and most probably there will be civil war/instability when she goes. Our PPP is still ahead despite having a country on our border that has been at war for 50 years and the devastating effects that comes with it.


Pakistans biggest problem is the debt you have and the lack of foreign reserves to cover imports and service those debts. The interest your paying eats any growth you create.



Sudarshan said:


> People in India have a positive perception of Hasina, tbh they just fear a radical mullah taking over as BD’s PM. Don’t take it otherwise, but this is what most people in India think.


You mean like the radical sanghi who's your PM?

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## UKBengali

damiendehorn2 said:


> Pakistans biggest problem is the debt you have and the lack of foreign reserves to cover imports and service those debts. The interest your paying eats any growth you create.




Pakistan takes out debt to pay of its debts. That is one the problems right there.

I am not trying to seriously debate the poster as in 10-15 years even he will not be able to deny that BD is a much more successfully economy than Pakistan, as BD cities and towns will look far more modern than Pakistan. Also BD'shis will earn 2-3 times what Pakistanis do.

He needs to accept that BD as a society and country plays in a much higher league than Pakistan and there is nothing that will change this in his lifetime most probably. The fact that BD and Pakistan were one country between 1947-1971 and Pakistan was able to use BD resources to benefit itself during this period has given him a false self of equivalency between the two countries.


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## Bilal9

Guys let's just compare cold hard numbers instead of measuring schwanzes.

Agreed Pakistan has problems but Bangladesh has various issues too, some of them quite serious. I won't go into them here.

Lately in the last two/three decades Bangladesh was lucky to have relative peace within which to have stable governance and social development - unlike Pakistan which suffered instability due to WOT next door. On top of it - there were additional problems caused by internal extremism and terrorism activities, some of it funded by external entities.

While the exact development factors that Bangladesh focused on (for example inclusive development in terms of female participation in the workplace as well as classrooms which resulted in neonatal/reproductive health, fertility drops and general overall health improvements) were not focused on with the same gusto in Pakistan, direct comparisons are probably not warranted as there are many macroeconomic and societal factors that are not referenced 1:1. Societal values and norms are vastly different in both countries and the various industrial sectors and export diversification thrusts of the two economies are different as well.

Bangladesh benefitted immensely from the Micro-credit movement, millions were lifted out of poverty. That era was missed in Pakistan.

Agriculture is strong in both countries however in Pharma and other sectors (especially engineering and metal working) are rather strong in Pakistan. Pakistan is self sufficient on a basic level in the engg. sector. You may have seen some threads I posted on about that. As a basis for further important value addition, that is extremely important. China used light engineering exports as one of the strongest basis for development.

Bangladesh is totally lacking in that area, though I hear the Chinese have Bangla speaking salespeople to cater to Bangladesh (dholaikhal and Jinjira) engg. entrepreneurs.

Bangladesh may do great value addition in apparel exports however Pakistan has been adding value in sports items and stainless steel surgical implements for much longer, several decades prior. Problem is Pakistan Govt. (and some Private sector entrepreneurs) are not as well organized and do not focus on and explore new areas in exports as much as their counterparts in Bangladesh do.

The business energy in Bangladesh is at another level - that has to be replicated in Pakistan.

Both countries will develop in time, but they will take different paths to get there. Export diversification and balanced industrial portfolio is needed in both countries - and I'd say more needed at this time in Bangladesh than India and Pakistan.

I have strong hope for Pakistan - their economic fundamentals may be a bit weak now because of consistent looting, but they will recover in time.


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## Destranator

Sudarshan said:


> People in India have a positive perception of Hasina, tbh they just fear a radical mullah taking over as BD’s PM. Don’t take it otherwise, but this is what most people in India think.


"Radical mullah" taking over BD would hurt Bangladeshis- it would hardly make a dent to India. Indians should be worried sick about the radical Hindu mullahs that are already in charge.

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## Black Tornado

Destranator said:


> "Radical mullah" taking over BD would hurt Bangladeshis- it would hardly make a dent to India. Indians should be worried sick about the radical Hindu mullahs that are already in charge.


I don’t think a “radical hindu mullah” is in charge, just because you think so he is doesn’t make him one. Your concern would’ve made sense if a Bajrang Dal guy became PM as they’re indeed far right wing guys, BJP ones are normal right wing. I was just saying what most people in India think and also said, don’t take it otherwise.


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## damiendehorn2

Sudarshan said:


> I don’t think a “radical hindu mullah” is in charge, just because you think so he is doesn’t make him one. Your concern would’ve made sense if a Bajrang Dal guy became PM as they’re indeed far right wing guys, BJP ones are normal right wing. I was just saying what most people in India think and also said, don’t take it otherwise.


To us BJP is a radical hindu mullah.

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## Black Tornado

damiendehorn2 said:


> To us BJP is a radical hindu mullah.


Let it be


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## Wergeland

Khan_21 said:


> There is absolutely no way to predict where the world will be in 2040. Pakistan is able to achieve all of this despite having 2000Km border with the most unstable country in the world. I would have loved to see what BD did if faced with 10 million refugees and a share a border with a country that has been at war for 50 odd years.
> 
> Despite all of that today our startup market is one of the fastest in asia , we just exported our first SUV and our exports have increased by 40%.



While it is true that Pakistan exist in a geographically more challenging neighborhood, all the factors that creates a burden upon it, could also be seen as a advantage.

By implementing the right policies at the right time, Pakistan on paper should have had more dividend from it.

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## Destranator

*What really drives our low tax-to-GDP ratio!*​Issues surrounding inflated GDP data has made Bangladesh’s Debt-to-GDP and tax-to-GDP ratio the lowest in South Asia​





Infographic: TBS


*A mid-term macroeconomic policy statement of the Ministry of Finance shows that the tax-to-GDP ratio for the five years from 2017 to 2020 was on average 9.9% which was 10.2% in the previous report. This rate is the lowest among SAARC countries, less than half of Nepal. Even the tax-to-GDP ratio of war-torn Afghanistan is better than that of Bangladesh.*
For the poor tax-to-GDP ratio, several elements are being blamed. Limited tax coverage, peripheral deficits, tax exemptions, tax evasion, litigation, deductions, corruption in depositing collected tax, lack of skilled manpower, technical incompetence, poor monitoring system, etc. are in discussion, yet not in the solution process.

In the financial year 2010-11, the revenue collection was about Tk80,000 crore. But in 2021-22, the revenue collection will be around Tk3,00,000 crore. In just ten fiscal years, the revenue collection almost quadrupled.
While there are certainly issues with the tax policy, collection and enforcement regime in Bangladesh, there may be more to the picture than initially revealed.

Firstly, questions can be raised regarding the GDP accounts. Why? The government's growth rate is not consistent with that of the World Bank (WB). After a delay of almost a year and a half, the BBS had to reduce its FY19-20 GDP growth figures by 1.73% in the face of objections from the WB, IMF, and domestic research institutes.
Then there's the issue of rebasing. Bangladesh's per capita income rose by $327 as BBS updated the base year for GDP calculation. However, the main purpose of the rebasing is to simplify the calculation of GDP, not to increase growth and national income. And the nine new sectors included during rebasing had already contributed to the GDP in either the agriculture, industry or services sectors.
According to economists, the BBS does not accurately subtract inflation from the figures for national income, labour income, household income, etc., resulting in higher domestic growth.
On March 4 2022, South Asian Network for Economic Modelling (SANEM) questioned the BBS's inflation data by publishing its survey data. According to SANEM, the average year-on-year food inflation in February this year for the urban marginalised groups was 12.46% which is considerably higher than the official estimate of 5.22%. Such underestimation of the inflation rate can inflate the real GDP as well.
That is, multi-level data distortion might be one of the factors contributing to a low tax-to-GDP ratio.
Furthermore, because of the potentially inflated GDP numbers, the debt-to-GDP ratio is always quite low despite the country's rising external debt. According to Bangladesh Bank, the country's total public-private external debt is $90.69 billion by end of CY2021, yet it is said that our debt-to-GDP ratio is negligible.
If one of two economic ratios is satisfactory, while the other extremely dissatisfactory, it indicates there are issues surrounding the common element between them. In other words, it's the inflated GDP data that made both the Debt-to-GDB and tax-to-GDP ratio lower.
The declining tax-to-GDP ratio is a widely discussed economic issue in the country. What is not discussed is the question of political malpractice around taxation, administrative accountability, and multistage political and administrative extortions.
We have been successful in reforming the income tax collection system at the sources of monthly salary. But corruption prevails in the foreign currency loan-based revenue system modernisation projects.
Incompetent foreign companies have been given the task of modernising technical revenue collection and processing infrastructure. There is recklessness in buying expensive EFD machines for VAT collection without emphasising the end-to-end payment system.
The poor rate of tax collection in Bangladesh is directly linked to our political and administrative malpractices. Politicians, businessmen, and industrialists evade taxes using their positions and tax inspectors are helpless to them.
In addition, political and bureaucratic influencers are placed on the boards of trustees of various organisations, creating a 'conflict of interest' in tax collection. Tax inspectors can hardly reach out to those organisations or companies.
The private sector in Bangladesh continues to evade income tax year after year by associating influential people with the management of the organisation. From reputed companies to private educational institutions, no one is exempt from this malpractice.
Another problem is the NGO-type model of business operations. Income tax evasion is very common in the Bangladeshi private sector by showing ambiguous costs, that the company's dividends are fully spent on various management domains including salary, allowance, development, entertainment, training, transportation, and social expenditure. Amazingly, the majority of the companies run on loss year after year.
Although it is difficult to collect direct income tax from large and medium businesses, the government tactfully collects the tax indirectly from VAT. VAT is always an indirect tax. Everything except rice, pulses, and vegetables is subject to VAT.
There are other discrepancies in the taxation policy as well. For instance, the tax-free income limit in Bangladesh is only three lakh takas. But even in India, it has been 5 lakh rupees for a long time. While prices are soaring beyond the reach of ordinary citizens in 2022, the government made more revenue by increasing the import duty.
Although the direct income tax is low, the rate of duty and VAT in Bangladesh is almost the highest in this region. But corruption runs rampant in the manual VAT collection system. With and without the assistance of VAT inspectors, traders and retailers can evade the amount of VAT paid by the buyer.
Unfortunately, the government is yet to design a proper payment system to know the actual amount of VAT paid from the source. Consequently, a significant portion of the collected VAT is being looted by corrupt officials and their accomplices.
The adoption of cashless transactions also appears to be slower than expected. People withdraw cash from ATMs either to purchase, to deposit to mobile banking wallets, to transfer to a second party mobile account, or to make payments.
We are still unable to achieve the seamless flow of electronic fund transfer among mobile and classical banking systems. Moreover, the cost of electronic transactions remains high and is one of the primary reasons for reluctance in adopting it. So, cash payment remains the obvious choice. Sadly, cash transactions also help people widely to bypass the taxation system.
Extortion is the biggest indirect tax in the country. Traders, shopkeepers, vehicles, freight trucks, and even hawkers are all forced to pay extortion. There are arguments that small and medium businesses in Bangladesh are not willing to pay income tax, because they are forced to pay massive extortion fees at various levels. It is also one of the reasons why the price of our commodities and production costs are so high.
Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio is as low as 10%. But it is consistent with the size of the formal economy which constitutes about 11% of the economy. To increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, the country's formal sector needs to be enlarged.
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the average monthly salary in various unskilled and low-skilled labour sectors in Bangladesh is only $48. Readymade garment workers earn a maximum of $100, the lowest in South Asia. How can people pay taxes with such a low income? How can you intend to collect higher tax rates in the informal sector, which accounts for 89% of the country's total labour market?
Then comes the issue of digitisation. Without sensible digitisation of the payment system, it would be difficult to alleviate corruption and improve tax collection.
Moreover, the taxmen should prioritise tax evasion by the large corporations and high-income earners to stop income tax evasion.
The taxation rate in Bangladesh is not vertical rather than horizontal. As the direct taxes from the rich and merchant classes are low, the government continues to impose a heavy burden of indirect taxes on the general middle class, lower class, and marginalised economic classes by imposing VAT, import taxes on daily necessities and other surcharges.
In this way, the tax collection process in Bangladesh is structurally unfair and it cannot be allowed to go on.








What really drives our low tax-to-GDP ratio!


Issues surrounding inflated GDP data has made Bangladesh’s Debt-to-GDP and tax-to-GDP ratio the lowest in South Asia




www.tbsnews.net

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## nahtanbob

Destranator said:


> *GDP decided first, calculations done later*



How is that possible in the long run ?


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## Bilal9

Black Tornado said:


> People in India have a positive perception of Hasina, tbh they just fear a radical mullah taking over as BD’s PM. Don’t take it otherwise, but this is what most people in India think.



No one in Bangladesh or Pakistan wants Mullahs of any stripe in power (least of all Shariah law), they don't command voting majority in Bangladesh and Pakistan. This is my take/opinion, others may differ.

*However this is demonstrated fact that Hindu Mullahs are in power In India.

All of us in all three countries need to be objective and describe/consider Hindu and Muslim Mullahs as equally bad for all subcontinental countries. 

This is off topic for this thread. Let's open a separate thread to discuss.*

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## Destranator

*GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF*

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the mark.

It observed that the methodology followed by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for calculating the vital economic indicators was outdated.
The IMF said this at a meeting with the BBS, according to officials that were present at the meeting. 

The multilateral lender, now in the capital on a fortnight-long mission to negotiate a proposed $4.5 billion loan, asked the centralised official bureau for statistics to upgrade its national accounting system for calculating the GDP and the inflation more accurately.

In response, BBS officials led by it director general Md Matiar Rahman said that they had plans to adopt the most modern accounting system once necessary changes in this regard were approved by the government.
The IMF observations regarding the country’s national accounting system came when the BBS has been facing criticism for delay in releasing the vital data including that of inflation.
The BBS delayed by more than a month to release the monthly inflation rate for the month of August that rose to an 11-year high at 9.52 per cent.
Besides, the GDP calculation by the BBS over the past several years created suspicion about its accuracy among the economists.
In March, the IMF in its article-IV mission observed that the inflation calculation with the base year 2005/06 introduced in July 2012 was no longer representative of current consumer expenditures in Bangladesh.
It should be updated on the results of the 2015/16 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, said the lender.
On GDP calculation relating to residential building construction, the IMF found two shortcomings including the use of old data collected in a 1980/81 survey.
The government of Bangladesh has sought the IMF loan to overcome the current financial shocks.
From a healthy $48 billion reserve in august 2021, the country witnessed a fall below $36 billion in the current month because of higher payment for imported products including fuel oil, fertiliser and food items.
The IMF has already held a number of meetings with the finance division and the Bangladesh Bank over conditions on the proposed loans. 
The IMF mission asked the central bank to follow the net calculation method instead of gross to determine the country’s foreign currency reserves for the sake of transparency.
It also asked the BB officials to call borrowers defaulters if they fail to clear payment against loans in 90 days from the current 180 days.
The IMF that will conclude its mission on November 9 has already suggested a comprehensive reform to the national revenue board to mobilise higher revenue.
It also wants reform to banking sector for curbing bad loans.









GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF


The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the...




www.newagebd.net

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## bluesky

Destranator said:


> GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF


My dear great @UKBengali, long time no see, how are you? You see this Razakar IMF is telling about the continuously falsified GDP growth figures that I have been telling all the time.

Now, your BAL party is in a precarious position. But, no one can really claim that Hasina and BAL party has particularly any sense of shame though the people of the country feel ashamed.

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> *GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF*
> 
> The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the mark.
> 
> It observed that the methodology followed by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for calculating the vital economic indicators was outdated.
> The IMF said this at a meeting with the BBS, according to officials that were present at the meeting.
> 
> The multilateral lender, now in the capital on a fortnight-long mission to negotiate a proposed $4.5 billion loan, asked the centralised official bureau for statistics to upgrade its national accounting system for calculating the GDP and the inflation more accurately.
> 
> In response, BBS officials led by it director general Md Matiar Rahman said that they had plans to adopt the most modern accounting system once necessary changes in this regard were approved by the government.
> The IMF observations regarding the country’s national accounting system came when the BBS has been facing criticism for delay in releasing the vital data including that of inflation.
> The BBS delayed by more than a month to release the monthly inflation rate for the month of August that rose to an 11-year high at 9.52 per cent.
> Besides, the GDP calculation by the BBS over the past several years created suspicion about its accuracy among the economists.
> In March, the IMF in its article-IV mission observed that the inflation calculation with the base year 2005/06 introduced in July 2012 was no longer representative of current consumer expenditures in Bangladesh.
> It should be updated on the results of the 2015/16 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, said the lender.
> On GDP calculation relating to residential building construction, the IMF found two shortcomings including the use of old data collected in a 1980/81 survey.
> The government of Bangladesh has sought the IMF loan to overcome the current financial shocks.
> From a healthy $48 billion reserve in august 2021, the country witnessed a fall below $36 billion in the current month because of higher payment for imported products including fuel oil, fertiliser and food items.
> The IMF has already held a number of meetings with the finance division and the Bangladesh Bank over conditions on the proposed loans.
> The IMF mission asked the central bank to follow the net calculation method instead of gross to determine the country’s foreign currency reserves for the sake of transparency.
> It also asked the BB officials to call borrowers defaulters if they fail to clear payment against loans in 90 days from the current 180 days.
> The IMF that will conclude its mission on November 9 has already suggested a comprehensive reform to the national revenue board to mobilise higher revenue.
> It also wants reform to banking sector for curbing bad loans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF
> 
> 
> The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newagebd.net



Tholer Biral Bahir Hoiya Gesey !!

Eibar Bojhen Moja !!

 

Loan dewar namey Lungir Gira disey khuila !! 



bluesky said:


> My dear great @UKBengali, how are you? You see this Razakar IMF is telling about the continuously falsified GDP growth figures that I have been telling all the time.
> 
> Now, your BAL party is in a precarious position. But, no one can really claim that Hasina and BAL party has particularly any sense of shame though the people of the country feel ashamed.



Dekhen Shob Guli Chup !!

Eishob Chetona Haramider ekhon dharey kasey khuija pawa jabena....

But Hindutvas now have reason to celebrate. Their GDP nominal per capita will again be higher than ours. 

No one in IMF dare tell them to correct their GDP Kal-Koo-Lay-Sun....

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## mb444

Destranator said:


> *GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF*
> 
> The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the mark.
> 
> It observed that the methodology followed by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for calculating the vital economic indicators was outdated.
> The IMF said this at a meeting with the BBS, according to officials that were present at the meeting.
> 
> The multilateral lender, now in the capital on a fortnight-long mission to negotiate a proposed $4.5 billion loan, asked the centralised official bureau for statistics to upgrade its national accounting system for calculating the GDP and the inflation more accurately.
> 
> In response, BBS officials led by it director general Md Matiar Rahman said that they had plans to adopt the most modern accounting system once necessary changes in this regard were approved by the government.
> The IMF observations regarding the country’s national accounting system came when the BBS has been facing criticism for delay in releasing the vital data including that of inflation.
> The BBS delayed by more than a month to release the monthly inflation rate for the month of August that rose to an 11-year high at 9.52 per cent.
> Besides, the GDP calculation by the BBS over the past several years created suspicion about its accuracy among the economists.
> In March, the IMF in its article-IV mission observed that the inflation calculation with the base year 2005/06 introduced in July 2012 was no longer representative of current consumer expenditures in Bangladesh.
> It should be updated on the results of the 2015/16 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, said the lender.
> On GDP calculation relating to residential building construction, the IMF found two shortcomings including the use of old data collected in a 1980/81 survey.
> The government of Bangladesh has sought the IMF loan to overcome the current financial shocks.
> From a healthy $48 billion reserve in august 2021, the country witnessed a fall below $36 billion in the current month because of higher payment for imported products including fuel oil, fertiliser and food items.
> The IMF has already held a number of meetings with the finance division and the Bangladesh Bank over conditions on the proposed loans.
> The IMF mission asked the central bank to follow the net calculation method instead of gross to determine the country’s foreign currency reserves for the sake of transparency.
> It also asked the BB officials to call borrowers defaulters if they fail to clear payment against loans in 90 days from the current 180 days.
> The IMF that will conclude its mission on November 9 has already suggested a comprehensive reform to the national revenue board to mobilise higher revenue.
> It also wants reform to banking sector for curbing bad loans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GDP, inflation calculation not up to mark: IMF
> 
> 
> The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said that calculations of the country’s gross domestic product and the rate of inflation were not up to the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newagebd.net




People, IMF came to BD and agreed the loan in record time with minimum fuss and with some observation and recommendations.

But lets get to the bottom line, they have not linked a SINGLE policy or process implementation to the terms of the loan that I have seen being reported.

Sensational media report aside.... BD has good overall economic policy backed ably by BBS data. Some methodologies needs updating, base years needs greater alignment, BB certaintly needs to report defaults using global definitions but IMF has not raised any flags whatsoever.

This might not fit some peoples narratives... but that is the reality on the ground. BD is not perfect but we are not a banana republic either. Our institutions are operating quite efficiently and effectively given where we are in our development journey.

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## Bilal9

mb444 said:


> People, IMF came to BD and agreed the loan in record time with minimum fuss and with some observation and recommendations.
> 
> But lets get to the bottom line, they have not linked a SINGLE policy or process implementation to the terms of the loan that I have seen being reported.
> 
> Sensational media report aside.... BD has good overall economic policy backed ably by BBS data. Some methodologies needs updating, base years needs greater alignment, BB certaintly needs to report defaults using global definitions but IMF has not raised any flags whatsoever.
> 
> This might not fit some peoples narratives... but that is the reality on the ground. BD is not perfect but we are not a banana republic either. Our institutions are operating quite efficiently and effectively given where we are in our development journey.



Well optimism is not a bad thing, but please see below.

There are no explicit conditions attached this time, however the implicit well-understood expectations are that "Macro-economic stability" needs to be restored. This article below quotes an expert who says Tax-to-GDP ratio is too low in Bangladesh and needs to be raised.









Bangladesh confidence lifts with IMF loan but tough reforms await


Officials cheer while experts warn against counting chickens too early




asia.nikkei.com

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## mb444

Bilal9 said:


> Well optimism is not a bad thing, but please see below.
> 
> There are no explicit conditions attached this time, however the implicit well-understood expectations are that "Macro-economic stability" needs to be restored. This article below quotes an expert who says Tax-to-GDP ratio is too low in Bangladesh and needs to be raised.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bangladesh confidence lifts with IMF loan but tough reforms await
> 
> 
> Officials cheer while experts warn against counting chickens too early
> 
> 
> 
> 
> asia.nikkei.com




Tax to GDP ratio is too low. Everyone knows that.

Macro economic stability has only been impacted by the pandemic and then US monetary policy.... these BD can not do anything about. 

BD has serious issues but happily the prescription is known. We will just have to swallow the damn medicine and be better off in the long run.

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## Destranator

mb444 said:


> People, IMF came to BD and agreed the loan in record time with minimum fuss and with some observation and recommendations.
> 
> But lets get to the bottom line, they have not linked a SINGLE policy or process implementation to the terms of the loan that I have seen being reported.
> 
> Sensational media report aside.... BD has good overall economic policy backed ably by BBS data. Some methodologies needs updating, base years needs greater alignment, BB certaintly needs to report defaults using global definitions but IMF has not raised any flags whatsoever.
> 
> This might not fit some peoples narratives... but that is the reality on the ground. BD is not perfect but we are not a banana republic either. Our institutions are operating quite efficiently and effectively given where we are in our development journey.


We can walk and chew gum at the same time. BD got the 4.5 billion loan quickly because it has enough macroeconomic strength and stability to be able to pay it back easily. It would be silly of IMF to punish the common people just because BBS stats are questionable.
We need a credible stats agency to be able to accurately assess economic progress and predict future opportunities (e.g.- economic scalability of import substitutes) and challenges (future energy and housing demand, etc.). There is no doubt Bd has a relatively strong economy among its peers, the qustion is HOW strong.
Granted that BD is not the only developing country which manipulates stats for short term glory but we need to set our sights higher and focus on long term goals.



mb444 said:


> Tax to GDP ratio is too low. Everyone knows that.
> 
> Macro economic stability has only been impacted by the pandemic and then US monetary policy.... these BD can not do anything about.
> 
> BD has serious issues but happily the prescription is known. We will just have to swallow the damn medicine and be better off in the long run.


Spot on


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## fallstuff

fallstuff said:


> She should include instances were datas were cooked otherwise its just not credible.


Two years ago this was my comment !

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## ThunderCat

Remember that economic development does not necessarily equal environmental development, improvements in living standards for most people, more sustainability, better healthcare, cleanness, more resources.


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## Destranator

BAL ministers question BBS data quality. I hope they reform and allow independent audits of BBS.


*Lies, damned lies and BBS data*
Zahid Huq | Published: December 29, 2022 22:55:59 | Updated: December 30, 2022 21:11:34

None knows for sure about the origin of the quote, "There are three kinds of lies---lies, damned lies and statistics". But the quote is often used for doubting statistics.


One might feel tempted to use the quote in the case of data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), as questions are very often raised about their quality by researchers, economists and multilateral development partners.


The BBS, the national statistical organization (NSO), came under fire some days back by people none other than Planning Minister M.A. Mannan and State Minister for Planning Shamsul Alam.

Mr Mannan, speaking at a function organised to publish the Agricultural Census-2019 results in Dhaka on Tuesday last, maintained that the data on livestock presented by the BBS was not correct. Mr Alam raised questions about the efficiency level of the BBS as a statistical outfit. Incidentally, the BBS is one of the key organisations under the control of the Ministry of Planning.

The Planning Minister found the agricultural census data on livestock incomplete since those failed to include the number of cows and goats belonging to dairy firms.

The State Minister for Planning questioned the efficiency level of BBS as it had delayed the publication of the agricultural census results by three years.

The ministers' criticisms of the BBS, thus, lend credence to what the economists and others have been saying for years. The latter very often raise questions about the quality of BBS statistics, particularly about those concerning GDP growth and inflation.

Ironically, both ministers do often defend the BBS data when some others raise questions about their reliability.

However, there is nothing new in it, as their predecessors had also reacted similarly to criticism of BBS statistics.

But one can hardly ignore the fact the incumbent planning minister is a bit different from his predecessors and colleagues in the present cabinet. He is open and frank and does not hesitate to admit to the weaknesses of his ministry.

His frankness or otherwise, however, does not anyway help the BBS improve its service delivery.

The truth is that the BBS operates like any other government organisation where bureaucrats are in control of things. But it should not be so. The NSO needs to be a specialised and independent entity where statisticians should be in control of things.

No planning is perfect without authentic data. So, it is important to put in place the manpower and logistics to help gather data and compile those efficiently for use by the planners.

Using unadulterated data in planning is important. But some data could prove unpalatable to the people at the helm of state affairs. So, in a country like ours, official data are doctored to make those soothing and hide facts. It might serve the purpose of some people for some time, but in the long run it undermines the country's interest.

It would be befitting for the ministers concerned to restructure the BBS and ensure its independence in its data collection, compilation and publication. Some data might prove difficult to digest even by the people manning the administration. But, use of unadulterated data in plans and programmes would ultimately help the nation reach its cherished goals without hiccups.

Zahidmar10@gmail.com









Lies, damned lies and BBS data


None knows for sure about the origin of the quote, There are three kinds of lies---lies, damned lies and statistics . But the quote is often used for doubting statistics. One might feel tempted to use the quote in the case of data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), as...




thefinancialexpress.com.bd





"But but everyone accepts BBS data without questioning."
Idiots.

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## Bilal9

Destranator said:


> BAL ministers question BBS data quality. I hope they reform and allow independent audits of BBS.
> 
> 
> *Lies, damned lies and BBS data*
> Zahid Huq | Published: December 29, 2022 22:55:59 | Updated: December 30, 2022 21:11:34
> 
> None knows for sure about the origin of the quote, "There are three kinds of lies---lies, damned lies and statistics". But the quote is often used for doubting statistics.
> 
> 
> One might feel tempted to use the quote in the case of data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), as questions are very often raised about their quality by researchers, economists and multilateral development partners.
> 
> 
> The BBS, the national statistical organization (NSO), came under fire some days back by people none other than Planning Minister M.A. Mannan and State Minister for Planning Shamsul Alam.
> 
> Mr Mannan, speaking at a function organised to publish the Agricultural Census-2019 results in Dhaka on Tuesday last, maintained that the data on livestock presented by the BBS was not correct. Mr Alam raised questions about the efficiency level of the BBS as a statistical outfit. Incidentally, the BBS is one of the key organisations under the control of the Ministry of Planning.
> 
> The Planning Minister found the agricultural census data on livestock incomplete since those failed to include the number of cows and goats belonging to dairy firms.
> 
> The State Minister for Planning questioned the efficiency level of BBS as it had delayed the publication of the agricultural census results by three years.
> 
> The ministers' criticisms of the BBS, thus, lend credence to what the economists and others have been saying for years. The latter very often raise questions about the quality of BBS statistics, particularly about those concerning GDP growth and inflation.
> 
> Ironically, both ministers do often defend the BBS data when some others raise questions about their reliability.
> 
> However, there is nothing new in it, as their predecessors had also reacted similarly to criticism of BBS statistics.
> 
> But one can hardly ignore the fact the incumbent planning minister is a bit different from his predecessors and colleagues in the present cabinet. He is open and frank and does not hesitate to admit to the weaknesses of his ministry.
> 
> His frankness or otherwise, however, does not anyway help the BBS improve its service delivery.
> 
> The truth is that the BBS operates like any other government organisation where bureaucrats are in control of things. But it should not be so. The NSO needs to be a specialised and independent entity where statisticians should be in control of things.
> 
> No planning is perfect without authentic data. So, it is important to put in place the manpower and logistics to help gather data and compile those efficiently for use by the planners.
> 
> Using unadulterated data in planning is important. But some data could prove unpalatable to the people at the helm of state affairs. So, in a country like ours, official data are doctored to make those soothing and hide facts. It might serve the purpose of some people for some time, but in the long run it undermines the country's interest.
> 
> It would be befitting for the ministers concerned to restructure the BBS and ensure its independence in its data collection, compilation and publication. Some data might prove difficult to digest even by the people manning the administration. But, use of unadulterated data in plans and programmes would ultimately help the nation reach its cherished goals without hiccups.
> 
> Zahidmar10@gmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lies, damned lies and BBS data
> 
> 
> None knows for sure about the origin of the quote, There are three kinds of lies---lies, damned lies and statistics . But the quote is often used for doubting statistics. One might feel tempted to use the quote in the case of data produced by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), as...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thefinancialexpress.com.bd
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "But but everyone accepts BBS data without questioning."
> Idiots.



They can hire independent auditors from KPMG, Ernst and Young, Deloitte etc. to double check BBS claims.

But who will pay for these independent auditors?

And Indian auditors are not welcome in Bangladesh. Last time they closed down Indian audit offices under threat of violence because these bhakt Indians were being a$$hole bosses. Good riddance.

We should get accounting auditors from friendly Muslim countries like from Indonesia. Pakistan or Malaysia.

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## ThunderCat

Al-Jazeera's report on poverty in Bangladesh claims 20% live below the poverty line. This is 8% more than the stats from the Bangladeshi government I read years ago:

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## ThunderCat

Misleading stats fallacy https://biznewske.com/misleading-statistics-fallacy-examples/

Bangladesh as an example https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/economics/news/gdp-growth-illusions-and-fallacies-1790944

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## ThunderCat

@PakFactor are you and your chums interested in this thread?


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## leonblack08

To Bangladeshi members- before you get into discussion with this individual, read this thread-






Pakistan economic crisis forces shopping malls and markets to close early


Pakistan economic crisis forces shopping malls and markets to close early Now for someone like me, I luv going to shopping mall trips, but this f***** government has ruined just about everything!!! I can't believe no one is killing these regime change operators, wtf. Source...



defence.pk





It is clear as daylight what he thinks about Bangladesh. His ego got hurt when another Pakistani poster just simply compared how Bangladesh has moved ahead of Pakistan in economic terms. That lit a fire on this poster's hind part and Bangladesh has been living on his head rent free since then. Just look at the collection of pictures and posts he racked up.

Another important thing - a brief background on this individual's grasp of economics - he thinks Bangladesh's total GDP is bigger than New Zealand, therefore Bangladesh should be having a better quality of life. I am not kidding, read that thread if you don't believe it.


The individual doesn't realize that this thread was started by another Bangladeshi and we Bangladeshis do question and scrutinize the government reports.

Nobody has claimed Bangladesh is a developed country or in the path of becoming one anytime soon. *But even if we take the most conservative of estimates, Bangladesh economy will come off better compared to Pakistan at this moment.*

In any case, any self respecting Bangladeshi will know what this guy is all about. Especially when he called Bangladesh a Sh*thole.

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## Destranator

leonblack08 said:


> To Bangladeshi members- before you get into discussion with this individual, read this thread-
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pakistan economic crisis forces shopping malls and markets to close early
> 
> 
> Pakistan economic crisis forces shopping malls and markets to close early Now for someone like me, I luv going to shopping mall trips, but this f***** government has ruined just about everything!!! I can't believe no one is killing these regime change operators, wtf. Source...
> 
> 
> 
> defence.pk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It is clear as daylight what he thinks about Bangladesh. His ego got hurt when another Pakistani poster just simply compared how Bangladesh has moved ahead of Pakistan in economic terms. That lit a fire on this poster's hind part and Bangladesh has been living on his head rent free since then. Just look at the collection of pictures and posts he racked up.
> 
> Another important thing - a brief background on this individual's grasp of economics - he thinks Bangladesh's total GDP is bigger than New Zealand, therefore Bangladesh should be having a better quality of life. I am not kidding, read that thread if you don't believe it.
> 
> 
> The individual doesn't realize that this thread was started by another Bangladeshi and we Bangladeshis do question and scrutinize the government reports.
> 
> Nobody has claimed Bangladesh is a developed country or in the path of becoming one anytime soon. *But even if we take the most conservative of estimates, Bangladesh economy will come off better compared to Pakistan at this moment.*
> 
> In any case, any self respecting Bangladeshi will know what this guy is all about. Especially when he called Bangladesh a Sh*thole.


Ignore him and his posts, wherever he posts them. The US is termed a lot of things like "shithole" for a host of reasons such as medical bankruptcies, gun violence, etc. - you do not see Americans on online forums jumping up and down with vigour to defend it because a strong nation acknowledges its shortcomings and discusses ways to improve.

The purpose of this thread is to highlight a serious issue with the Bangladeshi national stats agency so that it can be fixed - it is irrelevant to this thread as to what random foreigners think of Bangladesh.

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