# IS PAKISTAN INTERESTED IN THE TURKISH TFX



## nadeemkhan110

*IS PAKISTAN INTERESTED IN THE TURKISH TFX? (PART 1*






With Turkey and Pakistan finalizing a number of important defence deals, such as the ASELPOD acquisition andAgosta 90B submarine program, some circles in both countries are of the hope that the era of strong bilateral defence relations is finally beginning. This has been an aspiration, especially since the mid-2000s when the two countries embarked to engage in areas such as joint technology development and training.

Sadly, a particularly troublesome political and economic period within Pakistan from 2009 put a heavy dampener on those aspirations, especially on the acquisitions front where the Pakistan Navy’s pursuit of four MILGEM corvettes fell through. Fortunately, the two countries still managed to nurture their ties in the realm of training, with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and Turkish Air Force (TuAF) being regular participants at one another’s exercises, such as Anatolian Eagle (Turkey) and Indus Viper (Pakistan).

The summer of 2016 could emerge as a milestone where major procurements and joint-initiatives become a more common sight between Anakara and Islamabad. For example, Pakistan requested $400 million in credit from Turkey to help finance a procurement of four MILGEM-based corvettes. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) is also eager to sell its T-129 dedicated attack helicopter to the Pakistan Army. However, as valuable as these programs are on their own terms, their scope would utterly pale in comparison to the prospect of the PAF signing onto the TAI TFX next-generation fighter program.

The idea of this being reality is tenuous or on the weaker side, but a well-placed Pakistani government official reportedly told Turkey’s publicly owned media outlet Anadolu Agency that the two countries were in talks over the TAI TFX. Anadolu Agency even noted that if the program “materialized, it [would] be a flagship project between the two brotherly countries.” It has to be prefaced that government officials from Pakistan say many things, one only needs to look at the news of the PAF’s purported interest in the Sukhoi Su-35 as an example (of what could be wrong with what these officials say). When it comes to the PAF, it is always best to take it from the words of a publicly known PAF official.

At the same time, it would be unfair to extrapolate the weaker underpinnings of the Su-35 idea with the claims surrounding the TFX. For one thing, unlike Russia, Pakistan actually has a fruitful and increasingly strong defence relationship with Turkey. Furthermore, both countries are at work to connect Pakistan to big-ticket arms procurements (e.g. warships, helicopters and even drones); that cannot be said for Russia, at least at this time. While incredibly lofty in its own right, the idea of TFX coming up on the discussion table is still within the realm of reason. As a matter of fact, Turkey proceeded with the TFX in the hopes of exporting it.

But Turkey’s intentions aside, it is important to validate whether Pakistan itself could be interested in such a program. Fortunately, the PAF leadership has been relatively very open with its thoughts about its next-generation fighter needs and options. Its current commander, Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman, told PTV (a state-owned Pakistani media outlet) that the PAF was exploring its options in the ‘East’ and ‘West.’ Given the reality in front of Air Headquarters (AHQ), the PAF’s options in the East would be in the shape of Chinese platforms, namely the AVIC FC-31. But what could the PAF possibly look at from the West? An existing platform (such as the Eurofighter Typhoon) notwithstanding, the PAF’s next-generation option in the West would essentially center on the TFX. In fact, the TFX is a Western platform; the principal user is a NATO power (Turkey) and the platform’s technology progenitors are British and West European.

With the above in mind, one could plausibly suggest that the TAI TFX is an option for the PAF. However, this does not necessarily mean that the PAF would take that route. Part-two will examine the viability of the TFX in light with the PAF’s realities and alternative options.
source: http://quwa.org/2016/06/26/pakistan-interested-turkish-tfx-part-1/

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## RAMPAGE

There is a very good chance of Pakistan joining the TFX program. However, Turkish reliance on American OEMs _might _be a problem for us.

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## mingle

RAMPAGE said:


> There is a very good chance of Pakistan joining the TFX program. However, Turkish reliance on American OEMs _might _be a problem for us.


I think little bit subsystems r not issue engines r already selected which r rolls Royce

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## princefaisal

TFX will be the best 5th gen aircraft with European avionics, engine & weapons

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## AUz

Lol, Turks haven't even started building their 5th generation jet...and there are already articles about Pakistan wanting it. 

Turkish fifth generation jet is decade(s?) away from mass deployment.

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## That Guy

RAMPAGE said:


> There is a very good chance of Pakistan joining the TFX program. However, Turkish reliance on American OEMs _might _be a problem for us.


The chances of Pakistan joining the TFX program, heck any 5th gen program, are next to nil. The best chance is the FC-31, but even than, it is hard to actually imagine China giving up vital technology, even to its best ally, Pakistan.

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## T-123456

Who knows what might happen in a decade but it looks like Pakistan will be going for the Chinese option.


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## war&peace

That Guy said:


> The chances of Pakistan joining the TFX program, heck any 5th gen program, are next to nil. The best chance is the FC-31, but even than, it is hard to actually imagine China giving up vital technology, even to its best ally, Pakistan.


Whether you are aware or not? and since it has been discussed already in pdf, Air Chief Sohail Amman has announced that Pakistan will indigenuously develop the next gen aircraft and preparation are already underway. Though a lot of details have not been provided as usual but what I guess it won't be J-31, though it may have elements of it. I guess PAF will do JV with China, Russia, and Turkey for the development various subsystems while keeping the charge in its hands.

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## Hakikat ve Hikmet

"Imagination is more important than knowledge" - Albert Einstein 

When knowledge can't catch up with imagination, "LOL" is the natural outcome..

A single task done with _Iman_, _Ihlas_ and _Uhuvvet_ has a thousand _Bereket_ in it. Only if they knew..

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## RAMPAGE

That Guy said:


> The chances of Pakistan joining the TFX program, heck any 5th gen program, are next to nil. The best chance is the FC-31, but even than, it is hard to actually imagine China giving up vital technology, even to its best ally, Pakistan.


So you're saying that ACM Sohail Aman was talking bullcrap when he said that PAF was looking both East and West for the next generation fighter? And no we won't be buying off the shelf. The ACM made that quite clear.

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## nadeemkhan110

mingle said:


> I think little bit subsystems r not issue engines r already selected which r rolls Royce


Engine is EJ 200 the engine which in used in EURO FIGHTER

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## A2Z

PAF must become a part of TFX program whether we are getting J-31 or not, infact even if we are getting F-22. Becoming a part of the program will not only give us a confirmed 5th gen aircraft but the knowledge gain would work wonders for us. Turkey and Russia are now set to stabilize the relations and the fact that turkey has seen how helpful its NATO allies were when TAF downed Su-24. Pakistan working with China, Turkey and Russia via JV can do wonders for our defence industry, lately we have seen that the time and money invested in JFT, Super Mushak and others have started to bare fruits.

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## That Guy

RAMPAGE said:


> So you're saying that ACM Sohail Aman was talking bullcrap when he said that PAF was looking both East and West for the next generation fighter? And no we won't be buying off the shelf. The ACM made that quite clear.


@war&peace

What ACM Aman said and what I'm saying aren't necessarily contradictory. Pakistan will not be joining any existing programs, either it will buy off shelf (which it hasn't done in a long time, for big ticket items), or it will JV with another nation. Pakistan will probably not join the TFX program, but that doesn't mean that Pakistan will not cooperate with Turkey for a custom solution (JF-17, F-22P, Al-Khalid...etc).

I sincerely believe that for Pakistan, the era of buying off the shelf systems is nearing its end. Future big ticket items will have heavy Pakistani demands for custom fits. Pakistan cannot go it alone, not right now anyway, which is why PAF will look for international partners for its next generation fighter.

If Pakistan DOES buy a fifth gen from China, most likely candidate being the FC-31, it will likely ask for major changes to fit the role Pakistan air force envisions for its next generation fighter.

So, yeah. Again, what ACM Sohail Aman said and what I'm saying, aren't necessarily contradictory.

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## RAMPAGE

That Guy said:


> @war&peace
> 
> What ACM Aman said and what I'm saying aren't necessarily contradictory.
> 
> Pakistan will not be joining any existing programs
> 
> it will JV with another nation.
> 
> So, yeah. Again, what ACM Sohail Aman said and what I'm saying, aren't necessarily contradictory.


What's wrong with TFX? Why can the TFX be that joint venture you're talking about?

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## That Guy

RAMPAGE said:


> What's wrong with TFX? Why can the TFX be that joint venture you're talking about?


US technology will make Pakistan reluctant to join. Despite US tech being superior to basically every other nation's, there is a matter of reliability on getting the parts without too much of a headache (political deadlocks, anti-Pakistani ferver, Indian lobbying...etc).

With Congress blocking the F-16 deal, do you really think they'd be willing to let Pakistan get their hands on next gen US tech, when they constantly accuse Pakistan of giving US tech to China?

Unless Turkey can develop and produce every single part of the next gen fighter domestically, Pakistani military circles will always view it will a weary eye.

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## war&peace

RAMPAGE said:


> What's wrong with TFX? Why can the TFX be that joint venture you're talking about?


No, I did not rule out TFX at all so that's not my opinion, please read my comment again!!!

But many of the members on pdf are claiming that because of the use of US systems, it may not be possible for Pakistan...you should pose this question to them

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## Hakikat ve Hikmet

war&peace said:


> No, I did not rule out TFX at all so that's not my opinion, please read my comment again!!!
> 
> But many of the members on pdf are claiming that because of the use of US systems, it may not be possible for Pakistan...you should pose this question to them


_Elhamdulillah_, Turkey can leverage it's relationship with the USA to ensure that TFX is exportable to Pak. After all, it's a Turkish end system. After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..

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## war&peace

HAKIKAT said:


> _Elhamdulillah_, Turkey can leverage it's relationship with the USA to ensure that TFX is exportable to Pak. After all, it's a Turkish end system. After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..


That's very positive. I think right now all options are open and nothing has been decided. But I guess after development of JF-17 Pakistan wants to go with more indigenuous way whether it is TFX or J-31, it will only be accepted after a considerable input from PAF has been accommodated and necessary modifications are made on JV basis where nothing is kept secret. Turkey has been a friendly and a brotherly (some mates have a problem with this word) nation with Pakistan and we should join hands in all fields and especially in R&D of military hardware. It is very difficult for any nation to develop the 5th/6th gen aircraft alone due to exacting requirement of technical skills.

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## risingsinga

Hello, @war&peace @That Guy @RAMPAGE 

I have been following the news related to the next gen aircraft for PAF, Let me reconcile his different statements which apparently appear contradictory but in fact are not and all of you are saying the same thing but in different words and perhaps with different understandings. According to your air chief Pakistan will develop the next gen platform as it did with JF-17 perhaps with more control and customization to suit your needs and also for economic reasons. However it will take time so Pakistan will also look for some modern aircraft to fill the gap like EFT 2000, Su-35 or any other so that PAF has enough punch to meet current challenges. So I guess both of his statements on different occasions make sense. 

Regards,
Maaz

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## A2Z

That Guy said:


> US technology will make Pakistan reluctant to join. Despite US tech being superior to basically every other nation's, there is a matter of reliability on getting the parts without too much of a headache (political deadlocks, anti-Pakistani ferver, Indian lobbying...etc).
> 
> With Congress blocking the F-16 deal, do you really think they'd be willing to let Pakistan get their hands on next gen US tech, when they constantly accuse Pakistan of giving US tech to China?
> 
> Unless Turkey can develop and produce every single part of the next gen fighter domestically, Pakistani military circles will always view it will a weary eye.


Yes you have a point that US involvement in the program is sort of a turnoff for Pakistan but we should not forget that its not a direct Pak-US deal Turkey would be involved in between. If everything was just like you think, Russians would never have given engine for the Thunder program. At first the engine was bought through China but eventually Russians agreed to sell it directly to Pakistan. Somethings require time and some problems require a different approach to be solved.


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## RAMPAGE

That Guy said:


> US technology will make Pakistan reluctant to join.


And what did I say in my original post?


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## Imtiaz_Sarwar

That Guy said:


> I sincerely believe that for Pakistan, the era of buying off the shelf systems is nearing its end.


[USER=171000]
That shows the way to the future. With experience gained from JF-17 program, our own designs with joint co-production should serve us best.[/user]


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## araz

The PAF air chief has dreamt big and I like it. Someone needs to have the gumption and the mental strength to catch the bull by the horn and complete a difficult task and it is always good to see that. JFT has given PAF the confidence to step out into the wild wild west and announce its arrival in the big players.
That said TFX is yet on paper. Typical life cycle of development to prototype to low batch production can vary from 15 -30 yrs depending on where you start from. There are a lot of technoligies which Turkey has not demonstrated any knowledge in at least going by publically available data. 
Therefore let us assume that an optimistic time of 20 yrs is required. Now add to that the problems asociated with engine manufacturing and attaining reliable and long lasting results can be another hurdle. Avionics wise Turkey is nearly there and I dont see much problems with this issue.
The cost of such a project could run into billions. If you assume that the cosf is 10 billion( again being extremely conservative) and there are 3 partners(Turkey, South Korea and Pakistan) you are looking at 3.3 billion per partner plus the risk of a failed product as none of the partners have independantly designed and flown a fighter jet of their own.
Then there are technical aspects. What are you contributing in stealth fighter. You have to have something to sell rather than going and sitting there looking pretty. I am afraid here also you dont have much to contribute.
Lastly your need is not going to be more than 60 planes at the most. So if you add a cost of 120 million plus your investment of 3.3 billion,your cost per unit will be 120+50 million =170 million per plane. The plane will arrive in 2045 assuming you have signed a contract by 2018 ( assuming negotiations over 2yrs starting later part of 2016). There may be costs and time over runs and you could get base unit price going upto 200 million per unit. Total cost of project 10-12 billion over 20 yrs.
Assume that on the other hand you spend 120 million per unit price buying and integrating avionics into the J31which becomes available to you in 2025. You will have integrated the plane in your air force 10 -12 yrs earlier. You will probably have a loan which you will pay back over 5 yrs. Cost of integration would be 7-8 billion assuming a deal similar to what PAF worked out in case of JFT.
Now if you redo your sums again by these very conservative figures you will realize that you only have one option. The only way you will go for TFX is if the j31 never materializes or the Chinese do not want to sell it to you.
Regards
A

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## cloud4000

HAKIKAT said:


> After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..



Can you please explain what Brexit has to do with Turkish-US alliance?

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## !eon

PAF could not even decide about 4.5 gen fighter since 2003 & wasted the funds and yet about 5. gen fighter ? Hopefully they will start thinking about it after Indian induction of T-50. 
Pakistan Air Force is today a decade behind from it's first most adversary and if they just wait for TFX program and don't get any 5. gen from China, soon gap is going to be horribly widened.


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## That Guy

RAMPAGE said:


> And what did I say in my original post?


The difference between what you and I said is that you believe that PAF would join the TFX regardless, I do not.


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## shah1398

AUz said:


> Lol, Turks haven't even started building their 5th generation jet...and there are already articles about Pakistan wanting it.
> 
> Turkish fifth generation jet is decade(s?) away from mass deployment.



Pakistan is looking for a 5th generation aircraft and it wants to kick start aviation business inside country by establishing an Aviation City, which will take at least a decade. So this is the best chance to pre emptively involve in this program so when the aviation city comes online, we are already one step ahead. Turkish brothers are generous enough to involve us in this program, only if we ask for it. TFX is the best chance that Pakistan can get in 5th Gen aircraft business just from start. Getting into any such program mid way does not serves the bigger purpose.



!eon said:


> PAF could not even decide about 4.5 gen fighter since 2003 & wasted the funds and yet about 5. gen fighter ?



There was no lack of decision but lack of funds for PAF. And that was why we ended up getting only 18 Block 52s in the end.


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## !eon

shah1398 said:


> Pakistan is looking for a 5th generation aircraft and it wants to kick start aviation business inside country by establishing an Aviation City, which will take at least a decade. So this is the best chance to pre emptively involve in this program so when the aviation city comes online, we are already one step ahead. Turkish brothers are generous enough to involve us in this program, only if we ask for it. TFX is the best chance that Pakistan can get in 5th Gen aircraft business just from start. Getting into any such program mid way does not serves the bigger purpose.
> 
> 
> 
> There was no lack of decision but lack of funds for PAF. And that was why we ended up getting only 18 Block 52s in the end.



Funds had been problem but not biggest problem, at least until recently, thanks to some good friends of Pakistan, things were manageable in spite of huge corruptions. And funds were allocated for new purchase but used somewhere else: was not a good decision.

I don't know what else could this behavior be named but lack of decision, as they always wait for India to decide and could not decide for themselves what to get, just carried out evaluations and more evaluations.

Now look at the position of PAF in Kargil war to today. It's horribly horrible.


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## CriticalThinker02

If the TFX can be guaranteed that it won't be a sanction prone jet for Pakistan than yes it's a golden opportunity but still I think there is a better option for Pakistan, we could still work with the TFX program and as well with China's J-31 if possible to get an understanding and know how of the technologies involved and produce our own ingeniously developed fifth generation jet, this will be a far more difficult process but that end results would be ten times better.


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## niaz

Waqkz said:


> If the TFX can be guaranteed that it won't be a sanction prone jet for Pakistan than yes it's a golden opportunity but still I think there is a better option for Pakistan, we could still work with the TFX program and as well with China's J-31 if possible to get an understanding and know how of the technologies involved and produce our own ingeniously developed fifth generation jet, this will be a far more difficult process but that end results would be ten times better.



Probability being that power plant, avionics & the armament would be from different countries albeit manufactured under licence in Turkey. Therefore it can’t be 100% sanction proof.


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## shah1398

!eon said:


> Funds had been problem but not biggest problem, at least until recently, thanks to some good friends of Pakistan, things were manageable in spite of huge corruptions. And funds were allocated for new purchase but used somewhere else: was not a good decision.
> 
> I don't know what else could this behavior be named but lack of decision, as they always wait for India to decide and could not decide for themselves what to get, just carried out evaluations and more evaluations.
> 
> Now look at the position of PAF in Kargil war to today. It's horribly horrible.



May be this will throw some light at my point.

http://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article2850.html


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## Irfan Baloch

nadeemkhan110 said:


> *IS PAKISTAN INTERESTED IN THE TURKISH TFX? (PART 1*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .* In fact, the TFX is a Western platform; the principal user is a NATO power (Turkey) and the platform’s technology progenitors are British and West European.*
> 
> With the above in mind, one could plausibly suggest that the TAI TFX is an option for the PAF. However, this does not necessarily mean that the PAF would take that route. Part-two will examine the viability of the TFX in light with the PAF’s realities and alternative options.
> source: http://quwa.org/2016/06/26/pakistan-interested-turkish-tfx-part-1/


which essentially makes the Western subsystems unavailable for Pakistan. giving US or European companies the right to deny such technology .. thus forcing Turkey to build something similar in-house or find a 2nd or 3rd best from other countries that are willing to sell such components.

the American and Western suppliers of high end components have the "end-User" clause in their sale and can ban or bar an intermediary customer or distributor if their item ends up in a country that is currently not favoured by the Western powers. Pakistan doesn't have such expressive and explicit ban but .it gets red flagged and causes undue delay & bickering which can jeopardise this program

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## graphican

Pakistan would need 5th gen fighter within the same time-frame when India would get FGFA. With this in view, Turkish program would be late than Pakistan needs.


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## !eon

shah1398 said:


> May be this will throw some light at my point.
> 
> http://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article2850.html



Thanks, but my point was never F-16s and also funds allocations, which I am talking about was before 2008. F-16s were already in inventory. F-16 was not answer to MKIs of neighbors.

My point was EF, Rafale and J 10 considerations and evaluations and lack of decision making even before that, when Chinese were opting for J 10, leaving FC 1 behind. Now today they have difficulties in integration of components in a design which was made in age of 4 , 4.5 gen fighters. 
I can't find valid reasons for sticking with FC 1, when PAF had chance to go along Chinese for J 10, just from start.


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## Quwa

Irfan Baloch said:


> which essentially makes the Western subsystems unavailable for Pakistan. giving US or European companies the right to deny such technology .. thus forcing Turkey to build something similar in-house or find a 2nd or 3rd best from other countries that are willing to sell such components.
> 
> the American and Western suppliers of high end components have the "end-User" clause in their sale and can ban or bar an intermediary customer or distributor if their item ends up in a country that is currently not favoured by the Western powers. Pakistan doesn't have such expressive and explicit ban but .it gets red flagged and causes undue delay & bickering which can jeopardise this program


Depends on the technology. Yes, Turkey will tap into Western expertise, but the "joint development" is more of Turkey buying that expertise with as much ownership rights as possible, which will enable them to re-export. Some parts of the TFX shouldn't be an issue to acquire, others maybe. That said, the full platform isn't an optimal option for PAF.


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## Genghis khan1

*Spending money on 4th and 4.5th generation without 5th generation cover is total waste of time and money. There is no comparison between the kill ratio of of Stealth fighter to non stealth fighter.* Unless China is willing to involve Pakistan into J-20 program now (not leftover J-31), than Pakistan should join TFX as soon as possible. A billion dollars spend on 5th generation worth more than many billions towards non-stealth fighters.

*As per USAF Top brass interview:*
*F22 to J11D kill ratio: 1 to 30.*
*
Simulated exercise:*
*F-35 total Air-superiority over F-15 Strike Eagles.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

||••• F-35A Lighting II IOC •••||
>> F-15E STRIKE EAGLES UNABLE TO SHOOT DOWN THE F-35S IN 8 DOGFIGHTS DURING SIMULATED DEPLOYMENT*

The U.S. Air Force F-35A fleet continues to work to declare the Lightning II IOC (initial operational capability) scheduled in the August to December timeframe.

Among the activities carried out in the past weeks, a simulated deployment provided important feedbacks about the goal of demonstrating the F-35’s ability to “penetrate areas with developed air defenses, provide close air support to ground troops and be readily deployable to conflict theaters.”

*Seven F-35s deployed from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, to Mountain Home AFB, Idaho, to carry out a series of operational tests which involved local-based 4th Generation F-15E Strike Eagles belonging to the 366th Fighter Wing.*

In a Q&A posted on the USAF website, Col. David Chace, the F-35 systems management office chief and lead for F-35 operational requirements at ACC, provided some insights about the activities carried out during the second simulated deployment to Mountain Home (the first was in February this year):

“The F-35 recently deployed from Hill to Mountain Home where crews, maintenance and support personnel conducted a number of missions. During that deployment, crews attained a 100 percent sortie generation rate with 88 of 88 planned sorties and a 94 percent hit rate with 15 of 16 bombs on target.
These numbers provide a positive indication of where we are when it comes to stability and component performance.”

“Feedback from the events at Mountain Home will feed into the overall evaluation of F-35 capabilities. The second evaluation will take place in the operational test environment with F-35 mission sets the Air Force intends to execute after IOC. All reports will be delivered in July and feed into the overall F-35 capabilities report. The ultimate goal is to provide a needed capability to the warfighter to execute the mission. It is not calendar-based or event-based.”

“The feedback from unit operators in place today has been very positive for the F-35, not just concerning performance but the ability the aircraft has with other platforms. In particular at Hill, integration with the F-15E (Strike Eagle) has gone very well. We’ve also been demonstrating the ability to put bombs on target. All of that information will be provided to us in the formal IOC readiness assessments.”

The following interesting chart in Image No.2 accompanies the Q&A.It shows some stats about the deployment.
*
The fourth column shows something interesting: during the exercise, the F-35s were challenged by some F-15Es and suffered no losses.

Even though the graphic does not say whether the F-35s did shoot back at the F-15Es some analysts (noticing also the “pew pew pew” in the chart….) have suggested the JSFs achieved stunning 8:0 kill rate against the Strike Eagle.*

However, the “zero losses” may simply mean that the F-35s were able to complete their assigned strikes without being shot down by the aggressors of the Red Air: considered that the F-15Es were probably equipped with the AN/APG-82 AESA radar and the Sniper ATP (Advanced Targeting Pod), the fact that the Strike Eagles performing DCA (Defensive Counter Air) were not able to “find” and/or “engage” the almost-IOC F-35s can be considered a huge achievement for the pricey, troubled 5th generation multirole combat plane.

Actually, *this is not the first time the F-35 proves itself able to fly unscathed through a fighter-defended area: not a single Lightning II was shot down during Green Flag 15-08, *the first major exercise conducted, more or less one year ago, on the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California, during which the F-35 flew as main CAS (Close Air Support) provider.

At that time, several analysts claimed the participation of two test aircraft in the exercise was just a PR stunt, since the aircraft was still quite far from achieving a combat readiness required to really support the troops at war.

Let’s see what happens this time…
Article By : By David Cenciotti

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## Imtiaz_Sarwar

Irfan Baloch said:


> which essentially makes the Western subsystems unavailable for Pakistan. giving US or European companies the right to deny such technology .. thus forcing Turkey to build something similar in-house or find a 2nd or 3rd best from other countries that are willing to sell such components.
> 
> the American and Western suppliers of high end components have the "end-User" clause in their sale and can ban or bar an intermediary customer or distributor if their item ends up in a country that is currently not favoured by the Western powers. Pakistan doesn't have such expressive and explicit ban but .it gets red flagged and causes undue delay & bickering which can jeopardise this program


If Pakistan decides to go for TFX than we should make sure that under no circumstances, the "end user" clause is ever appiied to us.


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## Irfan Baloch

Imtiaz_Sarwar said:


> If Pakistan decides to go for TFX than we should make sure that under no circumstances, the "end user" clause is ever appiied to us.


 my innocent poster dear.
this clause is not set by us or Turkey but predefined by American Suppliers on the directive of their export controls set by their State.. this is how they prevent sensitive technology slipping into countries like say China or Iran etc.

even if the Turkish partners somehow mange to get the sale through but .. whenever this news will go out. then the Turkish company & individuals involved in the sale of those components will be blacklisted and fined.

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## Quwa

Irfan Baloch said:


> my innocent poster dear.
> this clause is not set by us or Turkey but predefined by American Suppliers on the directive of their export controls set by their State.. this is how they prevent sensitive technology slipping into countries like say China or Iran etc.
> 
> even if the Turkish partners somehow mange to get the sale through but .. whenever this news will go out. then the Turkish company & individuals involved in the sale of those components will be blacklisted and fined.


BTW do you have an idea of what U.S. components will be used on the TFX?


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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

The model is very "Raw" there is no official image the image floating around is a really bad CGI work

I would imagine it would be 10-15 year project

Rear looks stright from F18






Can Turkey - Pakistan , collaborate , 100%

But we are really 10-15 Year from a functional prototype (7 Years if proper cares goes into project) 

If Engines cannot be made in Turkey or Pakistan then the project loses its charm


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## fox 2

TF-X will be operational *in the 2030's..* You should note that..
And it's not paper project BTW.

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## cloud4000

If TFX is a long-term project, who cares where the components are from. 15-years is a long time in international relations. Anything can happen. May be Pakistan's economy will be strong enough and diplomatically adept enough to improve its relations with Western countries so worries about sanctions will be moot.


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## Irfan Baloch

Quwa said:


> Depends on the technology. Yes, Turkey will tap into Western expertise, but the "joint development" is more of Turkey buying that expertise with as much ownership rights as possible, which will enable them to re-export. Some parts of the TFX shouldn't be an issue to acquire, others maybe. That said, t*he full platform isn't an optimal option for PAF.*


that is understood
all depends on negotiating power (of Turkey/ Pak vs West) and the money involved (money bends rules) .. and what kind of Military or duel usage technology we are talking about.

please explain the last bit .. I didnt get it



Quwa said:


> BTW do you have an idea of what U.S. components will be used on the TFX?


sorry i dont. I can only speculate. engine? missiles, radar? who knows.
unless if Turkey decides to build everything from scratch...it will have the access as a NATO ally.


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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

Workable Scenario

It would make sense that if this is a 7-8 year project Pakistan Invests / Shows interest 

3 Year prototype development and 2-3 Year testing best case 

6 Years is realistic as both countries already make planes

Un workable

If it is 15-20 year project , it would be a bit long form practical perspective plane would be obsolete by 2030-2035

-> The Jet would be best deployed between Year 2021-2030


For Short Term Prespective

40-50 Typhoon (Current Need for next 4-5 years)

Partnership for Turkish project would make sence if first delivery is 6-8 Year 2021 or 2022


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## CriticalThinker02

niaz said:


> Probability being that power plant, avionics & the armament would be from different countries albeit manufactured under licence in Turkey. Therefore it can’t be 100% sanction proof.



We can still be a part of the program just to acquire an understanding of the latest technologies involved but certainly not adopt it if 100% sanction proof is not guaranteed, we don't want another F-16 debacle 20 or 30 years down the road.

Frankly we should develop this jet on our own with both Turkey and China's help, we were able to do it with JF-17 and our avionic industry prospered because of it, develop this jet from the ground up and let go of the Arab mentality of buying off the shelf, we certainly can do it.


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## Quwa

Irfan Baloch said:


> that is understood
> all depends on negotiating power (of Turkey/ Pak vs West) and the money involved (money bends rules) .. and what kind of Military or duel usage technology we are talking about.
> 
> please explain the last bit .. I didnt get it
> 
> 
> sorry i dont. I can only speculate. engine? missiles, radar? who knows.
> unless if Turkey decides to build everything from scratch...it will have the access as a NATO ally.


The engine is likely to be the Rolls-Royce EJ200, the radar will developed in Turkey by Aselsan, the air-to-air missiles are being developed in Turkey by Roketsan. BAE Systems from the U.K is being contracted to provide expertise and R&D support for the fighter, but this isn't a partnership, it's basically TAI literally paying someone else to do the legwork, though the IP of the fighter will remain with Turkey (along with export licenses).

All that aside, the full TFX program is a very unlikely bet for the PAF. I don't think American subsystems will be a problem, rather, high development cost and the fact that it is still in its infancy is going to be the main risk. There is less of both in the FC-31. Instead, the PAF could invest in some parts of the TFX, e.g. radar, ECM/EW, etc, but use them on the FC-31. This is less risky.

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## Manidabest

Pakistan shud get them once the project is completed

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## Hakikat ve Hikmet

IMHO, Pak is playing it smartly. Given the circumstances, get both Chinese and Turkish systems optimizing Pak requirements/specs, TOT and employing local folks. Compared to other alternatives, pricing is more negotiable. We're already seeing it with F22 + MILGEM, S40 + Augosta upgrade, WZ10 + ATAK,....

Too many cooks spoil the broth, and keep it simple and stupid (KISS)...

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## -SINAN-

Guys, let me remind you nothing is decided regarding TF-X. Not it's engines, not it's configurations (single engine or dual engine), and we didn't select our partner yet.....

If you wanna see a better CGI you can watch the clip below.





But don't let the clip give you ideas, as i said before nothing is decided yet.


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## Nefarious

Everyone can speculate but I'm sure Pakistan and Turkey can work something out taking into account all Pakistan's concerns regarding supply and service etc.

They will obviously let Pakistan know of any potential objections etc before hand so the appropriate decision can be made.

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## princefaisal

China has inducted J-20 and probably will not go towards J-31. This will create delays in the development of J-31 and probably it will be ready for production by 2027+. M/s Shenyang Aircraft Corporation may need some financial partner for early development of J-31. However TFX program will be on fast track basis due to the following reasons and will be ready for production by 2027+:-

1) Engine already selected and will be Rolls-Royce EJ200. TFX will be a twin-engined fighter jet with supercruise capability, which is going to be manufactured under licence.
2) Latest F-16 Avionics are being made by Aselsan, so little bit more advancement needed
3) R&D and design support will be provided by BAE UK
4) TAI's Advanced Carbon Composites fuselage facility, which was commissioned to produce fuselages for Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) program, has been tasked with developing an Advanced Carbon Composite fuselage for the TFX.
5) ASELSAN is currently developing a highly advanced Active electronically scanned array radar which will use gallium nitride (GaN) technology for the TFX program.

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## -SINAN-

princefaisal said:


> 1) Engine already selected and will be Rolls-Royce EJ200. TFX will be a twin-engined fighter jet with supercruise capability, which is going to be manufactured under licence.
> 2) Latest F-16 Avionics are being made by Aselsan, so little bit more advancement needed
> 3) R&D and design support will be provided by BAE UK
> 4) TAI's Advanced Carbon Composites fuselage facility, which was commissioned to produce fuselages for Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) program, has been tasked with developing an Advanced Carbon Composite fuselage for the TFX.
> 5) ASELSAN is currently developing a highly advanced Active electronically scanned array radar which will use gallium nitride (GaN) technology for the TFX program.



As i said before, nothing has been decided yet....


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## kshaib

We have left with one choice to buy from China, there will be headache, because we experience of J17.
China bought 24- Su 35, which is modifying them, In end of Pakistan.


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## eagleeye

According the officials we will see the first prototype 2023 . If all goes smooth the serial production will follow.

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## Ultima Thule

Mohammad Fazil Khan Lodhi said:


> We have left with one choice to buy from China, there will be headache, because we experience of J17.
> China bought 24- Su 35, which is modifying them, In end of Pakistan.


No way that Su-35 will coming to Pakistan either directly or indirectly got it kid


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## nadeemkhan110

zenmastera said:


> TF-X will be operational *in the 2030's..* You should note that..
> And it's not paper project BTW.


I think we can not wait for TAI TFX its a long term project we should go for J-20 or PAK FA



eagleeye said:


> According the officials we will see the first prototype 2023 . If all goes smooth the serial production will follow.


If it is true Then Its a very good news TAI TFX will be a quality 5th GEN JET inshallah

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## Ultima Thule

nadeemkhan110 said:


> I think we can not wait for TAI TFX its a long term project we should go for J-20 or PAK FA
> 
> 
> If it is true Then Its a very good news TAI TFX will be a quality 5th GEN JET inshallah


no sir J-20 is not for export


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## nadeemkhan110

jetstar said:


> @nadeemkhan110 what you think china will say no to pakistan just for j-20
> and who say j-20 is not for sale.


Yes J-20 is not for export just like f-22
Now as per China j-20 will be in service soon just to scare some countries in South China sea and no one knows many thing about j-20 China just want to use j-20 as a secrete Weapon. 
http://www.defenseworld.net/news/16...0_Transport_To_Enter_Service__In_Near_Future_

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## Ultima Thule

jetstar said:


> @nadeemkhan110 what you think china will say no to pakistan just for j-20
> and who say j-20 is not for sale.


its china's F-22, sir go t0 *J-20 news and discussion forum *and you will know it


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## PDF

As PAF Chief has hinted that we will try to develop our own next generation aircraft, I think it will most probably be a joint venture due to our technical and financial restrictions. And as currently, 5th gen aircraft are not to be introduced properly for many years to come, our partnership with Turkey in developing it have a high possibility. For now, we can only speculate.


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## baqai

to be honest it won't be a bad idea to get involved with either China or Turkey with next generation fighter program


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## KediKesenFare3

Quwa said:


> (...) Instead, the PAF could invest in some parts of the TFX, e.g. radar, ECM/EW, etc, but use them on the FC-31. This is less risky.



This is a very good idea! 
Both would profit from such a partnership.

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## suliman0409

Why isnt the other Chinese plane an option. There not willing to sell now but maybe in few years there are


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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

J-31 is much safer bet the plane is already complete

However the Turkish platform is interesting if it gets completed in 6-7 Year 1 prototype and joint Research and Development

Turkey has vast experience from F16 work
Pakistan has vast experience from JF17 thunder program

Should not take more then 6-7 years

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## The SC

By 2020 Pakistan's economy will be strong enough to start investing in A 5th generation fighter from China (mainly the FC-31, Pakistan PAF officially showed interest in the plane), thinking about a JF-17Block 4 (4++) and even 5th G JF-17, it can also invest some money in JV's with Turkey and China..If it is all a matter of money then money is coming with CPEC, Gwadar, Gas pipelines, foreign investments and other options and new projects that will stem from these developements..

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## mustafa erkan

UK offered partnership to Turkey with unlimited technical support.Deal will be done in a short time.
3 reason which UK ambrassador said for why they want to be in a partnership with Turkey are:

One of is business.They want to increase their companies bussiness volume and technological capabilities.He says its very very difficult to develop 5 th generetion aircraft for every country.He says this is a huge project.

Second England and Turkey will become strategic partner with the help of TFX which is more than a fighter jet developing project.Militaries will have deep relations.(In my opinion England doesnt want to limit itself being an EU member thats why their army wants alliance with future powers and support brexit)

Third they have the potential but dont have an future fx project by themselves.He says we will need a new fighter to replace Thypoons in the future and cant lack time.

The most important part of interview is ; we know the aim of Turkey from the beginnig.They want real guarantee from us.They want all critical technology and intimate partnership.They want to export it without permission and we want to export it too.No one can do such a project for only his millitary.We guarantee They will get the most liberal open-minded attitude from us.UK will give the most and the most resistant because this technological share is not just a economic partnership also a strategic partnership.

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## Zain Malik

Disucussion part II:

J-31 vs TFX for Pakistan

In part one of this series, it was determined that the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) TFX could be a potential next generation fighter option for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
As to whether the PAF would sign onto the TFX could be a very different story. This is not to completely preclude the possibility, but it would be worth reviewing exactly what the PAF is looking for in its pursuit of a next-generation fighter platform. In March, Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman stated that conceptualizing the PAF’s next generation fighter was of primary urgency, but admitted that its development would be the PAF’s most difficult challenge on the horizon. These two points indicate that Air Headquarters (AHQ) is being inductive in terms of its next steps. It is not just looking at existing platforms with the goal of seeing which one best aligns with the PAF’s requirements, rather, PAF AHQ is also defining those requirements, and in turn, it is trying to determine the steps necessary in order to bring those requirements to fruition.
The other issue of concern to AHQ is its desire to make the PAF’s next generation fighter a leading driver of indigenization and domestic defence industry development. In parallel with domestic requirements building design, the design needs to be sourced as much as possible domestically. Retired PAF Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail even observed that the intent on domestic development was genuine, it would be unfair to paint the PAF’s approach in the lenses of an off-the-shelf program.
Kamra Aviation City is at the center of the PAF’s intent to build the requisite human capital, but doing it all alone, especially with a relatively tight funding ability, is not a feasible ask, especially for Pakistan (which is not as well developed as Turkey, India or China). Securing an overseas partner to help with development and building domestic capacities are not mutually exclusive, the two can work hand-in-hand. However, the PAF still needs a partner, so as to make up for the research and development as well as technology capacities it does not possess.
Can participating in the TFX program fulfill those critical needs (i.e. drive domestic industry growth, cutting down dependence on external sources, and serve as a capable platform)? There is no simple “yes” or “no” answer – it will simply depend on where the facts tilt. One of the good things about the TFX rests in the reality that it is in the early stages of development. Make no mistake, this is also a major risk (especially in comparison to the AVIC FC-31), but entering with developing funding affords the PAF several benefits.
First, it can work with TAI to closely define its requirements from the onset (e.g. avoiding sensitive U.S.-origin subsystems), and this could be translated into the project. Second, the PAF can earn a number of rights over the platform, such as the freedom to arm and configure the platform at will, maintain a deep level of knowledge and control over certain subsystems (e.g. radar and avionics), and of course, produce (or at least fully maintain) the platform domestically. Supporting TAI at this early stage may even yield off-sets that could feed into Pakistan’s defence industry, e.g. manufacturing certain parts for all TFX fighters.
However, it has to be asked – would the PAF be unable to procure any of the above from China via the FC-31? Of course, one could speculate that China has a vested interest in keeping Pakistan dependent in as many areas as possible, so as to benefit the Chinese industry over the long-term. But this is speculation, especially since China has a strategic interest in trying to pry Pakistan – and the Pakistani military – away from U.S. influence. Granted, China will not give total independence, but Pakistan could acquire enough to fully operate and flexibly configure the platform.
One could also suggest that China will be unwilling to release critical knowledge behind the FC-31, it is a next-generation platform, after all. But in light of the fact that AVIC marketed the FC-31 as an export-focused co-development program, to suggest that enough (for full domestic support and customization) will not be released does not line up with the reality, at least at this time. It must also be noted that the FC-31 will have a shorter development lead-time thanks to the development legwork that was already completed via the J-31 technology demonstrator.
To be frank, the only decisive argument in favour of the TFX rests in the objective of diversification for the sake of hedging and independence, but this is not a luxury afforded to those in need; rather, it is for those who are able. In other words, the PAF cannot pursue the TFX route on its own, not without sincere and competent support from the Pakistani government. If there are problems in this dynamic (e.g. inefficiencies, corruption, etc), then the PAF’s aspirations will suffer.
It seems the PAF has two options in terms of foreign next-generation projects, though the FC-31 is at a later stage of its development (compared to the TFX). The route taken will be up to the PAF, but there may be a third avenue that could draw on the best of both programs. The PAF could potentially adopt the FC-31 airframe and engine (WS-13 or RD-33MK), but configure it with the radar, avionics and weapons suite of the TFX. In this case, the PAF’s investment in the TFX could be targeted and less risky, yet still afford it with diversity and control over critical aspects of the platform it will be using in the future. This is not to say the PAF ought to take this route, but it could be another option.
It is likely that the PAF is anticipating its need for a next generation fighter in the mid-to-late 2020s, around which time the F-16A/Bs will need to be retired. The plausible but uncertain induction of another platform (e.g. a JF-17 Block-IV or another fighter) notwithstanding, expediency may be another factor the PAF will be evaluating between its options. In any case, if the next twelve months are anything like the past year, the PAF may offer a clearer of understanding of where it is heading in this area.


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## Irfan.irfan_2001

There is no point of Looking East or West to waste more time . Only option to acquire next generation fighter is either from China or Russia.

No one else will sell Pakistan any modern fighters .


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## Ultima Thule

Irfan.irfan_2001 said:


> There is no point of Looking East or West to waste more time . Only option to acquire next generation fighter is either from China or Russia.
> 
> No one else will sell Pakistan any modern fighters .


sir everyone is trying to sell modern fighter but unfortunately we have little funds and *yes for china, no for russia*


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## HAIDER

For TFX engine Turkey has two option either goes for RR or Ukraine joint venture. But, it seems Turkey will go with Ukraine for engine. 
Plus , last week Chinese J31 tested home made engine WS31E,


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## princefaisal

Design of J-31 has completed and may be only minor modifications are required. So its better to get the engine & frame from China and give contract to TAI for the incorporation of Turkish avionics & sub-systems into it.

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## sohail.ishaque

The SC said:


> By 2020 Pakistan's economy will be strong enough to start investing in A 5th generation fighter from China (mainly the FC-31, Pakistan PAF officially showed interest in the plane), thinking about a JF-17Block 4 (4++) and even 5th G JF-17, it can also invest some money in JV's with Turkey and China..If it is all a matter of money then money is coming with CPEC, Gwadar, Gas pipelines, foreign investments and other options and new projects that will stem from these developements..



well, isnt' there a possibiliy of a twin engine and a single engine Stealth fighter jet.. i mean we can keep upgrading and transaforming JF17 thudner into a single engine Stealth fighter jet, which wud b very much needed and opt for twin engine stealth fighter from CHina or Turkey...


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## The SC

sohail.ishaque said:


> well, isnt' there a possibiliy of a twin engine and a single engine Stealth fighter jet.. i mean we can keep upgrading and transaforming JF17 thudner into a single engine Stealth fighter jet, which wud b very much needed and opt for twin engine stealth fighter from CHina or Turkey...


Pakistan has showed interest in the FC-31 or J-31 if you want , it has twin engine, and the main characterestic is that it has the same engine as JF-17, too of them .. it will be easier for maintenance..Turkish Stealth is farther away in the making, J-31 will be here (if all goes well with its developement) in few years..JF-17 Stealth is a possibilty - semi stealth in block 4 and stealth in block five- I still think that an additional 2 or more squadrons of EF or SU-35 (or even F-16 V) will do wonders for Pakistan..

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## Ultima Thule

sohail.ishaque said:


> well, isnt' there a possibiliy of a twin engine and a single engine Stealth fighter jet.. i mean we can keep upgrading and transaforming JF17 thudner into a single engine Stealth fighter jet, which wud b very much needed and opt for twin engine stealth fighter from CHina or Turkey...





The SC said:


> Pakistan has showed interest in the FC-31 or J-31 if you want , it has twin engine, and the main characterestic is that it has the same engine as JF-17, too of them .. it will be easier for maintenance..Turkish Stealth is farther away in the making, J-31 will be here (if all goes well with its developement) in few years..JF-17 Stealth is a possibilty - semi stealth in block 4 and stealth in block five- I still think that an additional 2 or more squadrons of EF or SU-35 (or even F-16 V) will do wonders for Pakistan..


there is no stealth version of JF-17 may be semi stealth version


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## The SC

pakistanipower said:


> there is no stealth version of JF-17 may be semi stealth version


Well, let's say semi-stealth plus FBL(fly-by-light, ie; fiber optics), that is 75% Stealth, plus a capability of active cancellation stealth plus some new RCS materials, we are approching Full stealth somehow, even though there is no total stealth.. All the plus's are already available or will be soon enough for Stealth JF-17 Block 5 let's say..


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## Ultima Thule

The SC said:


> Well, let's say semi-stealth plus FBL(fly-by-light, ie; fiber optics), that is 75% Stealth, plus a capability of active cancellation stealth plus some new RCS materials, we are approching Full stealth somehow, even though there is no total stealth.. All the plus's are already available or will be soon enough for Stealth JF-17 Block 5 let's say..


75% stealth but that will be no more JF-17, it will be J-19 or something because it will structurally different from JF-17

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## The SC

I


pakistanipower said:


> 75% stealth but that will be no more JF-17, it will be J-19 or something because it will structurally different from JF-17



I will be much lighter with FBL and less detectable, with a big reduction in magnetic emissions, They might call it JF-18..

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## Ultima Thule

The SC said:


> I
> 
> 
> I will be much lighter with FBL and less detectable, with a big reduction in magnetic emissions, They might call it JF-18..


but it is not based on JF-17, it will be new project

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## The SC

pakistanipower said:


> but it is not based on JF-17, it will be new project


Why not a new project, or based on the existing idea of JF-17? both are equaly interesting..


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## sohail.ishaque

pakistanipower said:


> there is no stealth version of JF-17 may be semi stealth version



i was talking about the future blocks btw.... 

and i remeber there was a news sometime back about a stealth single engine jf17 on which Pakistani officials said that they r planning to..


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## Bouncer

What will Pakistan bring to the table? We do not have much expertise to offer in this high tech venture. And we certainly do not have the monies.


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## Mangus Ortus Novem

Design and analysis of concept capabilities are there already with PAC. Might not be top notch but still there. Above 70% local design, subsystems from where available. Next generation fighter is bound to follow this path. It is not always about the money. Give it half a decade and things will unfold.


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## cabatli_53



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## nomi007

50-50 partnership will be an ideal deal


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## Ultima Thule

sohail.ishaque said:


> i was talking about the future blocks btw....
> 
> and i remeber there was a news sometime back about a stealth single engine jf17 on which Pakistani officials said that they r planning to..


but that will be not a JF-17 but JF-19 or something because it will structurally different from the JF-17 and will be a whole new project which will be not based on JF-17


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## The Next Door

We can join and it will be helpful in getting 5 generation technology but it is a time taking program we can't rely on it we quickly need SU-35 and J-20 or some thing like that


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## jupiter2007

Too much khayali pulao...
Pakistan has not officially shown any interest in Turkish fighter project, and even if they did, they don't have many to invest in it. There 1st priorty is to replace aging F7 and older mirage. 150 of the older planes will have to be replaced by 2020.
Most of the budgey money will be spend in building JF-17 block 2 and R&D on block 3/4.
Some money will be used to acquire older F-16s and MLU, other will be spent to acquire small number of (18 to 36) true 4.5 generation fighter, possibly SU-35 with French tech.


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## cabatli_53

It is perfect time to be a partner of TF-X project ! The final details of project became reality and detail design process will commence. This project certainly receive some friendly countries as partner. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Malaysia, maybe UAE. We will see but It is underlined by officials that the main purpose of this project is to produce a stealth fighter which is going to be operated by Turkey and ally countries. English ambassador has also stated that They will need to replace their Typoons with TF-X/EF-X fighters by 2030.

- Development Budget: $8.6 bln
- Mentor / assisting company: *BAE systems *
- Lead engineer of TFX design team: *Christopher CLARKSON* (was also lead engineer of the BAE FCAS concept)




- Development till 2025
- First entry into inventory planned in 2025
- Replacing of F16's by TFX from 2030 on

Turkey purchased a super computer for detail design activities. Both Turkish and British laboratories, facilities, test fields will be used by BAE/TAI design-development team. 

SSM head told that Development of TF-X engines will also be achieved. There won't be any limitation to technology transfer, nor restrictions between England and Turkey. The officials are working on formalities at present.

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## Imtiaz_Sarwar

Britain has major involvement in TF-X. So far Pakistan has not joined this program. If and only if we decide to join it in future, Will Britain have any objection on Pakistan joining TF-X. This is a very serious matter for us.


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## cabatli_53

Imtiaz_Sarwar said:


> Britain has major involvement in TF-X. So far Pakistan has not joined this program. If and only if we decide to join it in future, Will Britain have any objection on Pakistan joining TF-X. This is a very serious matter for us.




According to British ambassador, Turkey demands two things for TF-X partnership.

-Access to all sensitive technologies
-No restrictions to usage/exportation

BAE is the one who met all requests of Turkey and formed a strong partnership which is going to proceed maybe 30-40 years. Britain and Turkey formed an alliance to develop one of the best 5th generation stealth fighter aircraft. TurAF is actively participating into meetings and It is the TurAF who announced the strong partnership between Britan and Turkey for TF-X project. Britan and Turkey has shaked hands after formalities for permissions have been solved. There won't be any restrictions, limitations or problem to export third countries.

I suppose Reality of TF-X project is visible and The Turkish officials will offer ally states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Azerbaijan or Malaysia to join into this TF-X alliance like Indonesia and S. Korea does. Funding TF-X from the beggining additions to local engineering support will be a win-win for all parties bro.

The projects related with TF-X has already been commenced by Turkish industry !

Goktuğ air to air missiles (IIR guided short range, RF guided long range)
SOM-B cruise missiles
SOM-J anti-ship cruise missiles
Almost all type guided bombs
EW/Jammer/SAR pods
TF-X AESA radar project to be finalized by 2020.

Mission computer development project for TF-X

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## Path-Finder

jupiter2007 said:


> Too much khayali pulao...
> Pakistan has not officially shown any interest in Turkish fighter project, and even if they did, they don't have many to invest in it. There 1st priorty is to replace aging F7 and older mirage. 150 of the older planes will have to be replaced by 2020.
> Most of the budgey money will be spend in building JF-17 block 2 and R&D on block 3/4.
> Some money will be used to acquire older F-16s and MLU, other will be spent to acquire small number of (18 to 36) true 4.5 generation fighter, possibly SU-35 with French tech.


Thinking ahead F16 will need to be put to scrap as well! That is why TFX for is being put into motion and the biggest problem with F16 has been the menstrual cycle of the americans who embargoed them. We need a reliable source and China(JF17) & Turkey are a reliable source. TFX may or may not fit as F16 replacement for Pak only time will tell.

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## BetterPakistan

Why not Sukhoi PAK FA? Turkish TFX is quite expensive compare to Sukhoi PAK FA and won't be better than Sukhoi PAK FA?


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## war&peace

BetterPakistan said:


> Why not Sukhoi PAK FA? Turkish TFX is quite expensive compare to Sukhoi PAK FA and won't be better than Sukhoi PAK FA?


Why won't it be better than Pak-FA (I'm not objecting but I want to know your motivation / logic)

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## BetterPakistan

war&peace said:


> Why won't it be better than Pak-FA



TFX won't be more than some sort of US jets. Sukhoi PAK FA would be something new.
F-16 a quite old program and is not better than Sukhoi Su-35 which is cheaper than F-16 latest blocks.


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## war&peace

BetterPakistan said:


> *TFX won't be more than some sort of US jet*s. Sukhoi PAK FA would be something new.
> F-16 a quite old program and is not better than Sukhoi Su-35 which is cheaper than F-16 latest blocks.




As if US jets are something inferior....USA still leads the Aerospace industry in the world. PAK-FA is still a technology demonstrator while USA has F-22, F-35 two 5th gen operational aircrafts while F-15 silent eagle is 4.5 gen and F-18 SH is 4+ gen heavy fighter and F-16 block 60 are 4 gen medium fighters with an excellent record.
You got it all wrong if you believe Su-35 is cheaper than F-16...what is your source of info?
Su-35 has a lot of technology but still not battle proven as Russia opted Su-34 long range bombers instead of Su-35 in Syria.

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## cabatli_53

BetterPakistan said:


> Why not Sukhoi PAK FA? Turkish TFX is quite expensive compare to Sukhoi PAK FA and won't be better than Sukhoi PAK FA?



TFX is expensive compared to PAK-FA ? TF-X is not even exist. Where do you reach such information to compare with PAK-FA ? What about performance ? How do you know Turkish/British subsystem, sensor capabilities compared to Russians ?

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## BetterPakistan

cabatli_53 said:


> TFX is expensive compared to PAK-FA ? TF-X is not even exist. Where do you reach such information to compare with PAK-FA ? What about performance ? How do you know Turkish/British subsystem, sensor capabilities compared to Russians ?



Sukhoi PAK-FA doesn't exist too.

Sukhoi PAK-FA will be equal to F-35 or better than that at half price.


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## cabatli_53

BetterPakistan said:


> Sukhoi PAK-FA doesn't exist too.
> 
> Sukhoi PAK-FA will be equal to F-35 or better than that at half price.




Talking about your TF-X dreams must be your general habit but It doesn't make any sense to me !


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## BetterPakistan

cabatli_53 said:


> Talking about your TF-X dreams must be your general habit but It doesn't make any sense to me !



just have a look at previous russian fighter jets and your ones (f-16s) and 15s and you will see the difference.


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## cabatli_53

BetterPakistan said:


> just have a look at previous russian fighter jets and your ones (f-16s) and 15s and you will see the difference.



I don't have capability of realizing the difference between a Russian fighter prototype and non-existent fighter called TFX that is in its detail design phase.

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## BetterPakistan

cabatli_53 said:


> I don't have capability of realizing the difference between a Russian fighter prototype and non-existent fighter called TFX that is in its detail design phase.



History pretty much tells us about Russian fighter jets and f-16-15s which your country uses.


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## Paksanity

BetterPakistan said:


> Sukhoi PAK-FA doesn't exist too.
> 
> Sukhoi PAK-FA will be equal to F-35 or better than that at half price.




Sir please take a serious unbiased look when comparing Russian and US defence industry. US is far far ahead. There is no way PAKFA can even come close to F-35. Russian program is in serious trouble and might not even satisfy all requirements to be called a 5th gen fighter. Chinese are in better position to field their aircraft earlier than Russians. They too, however have serious shortcomings especially on the fields of engine, metallurgy and avionics. US leads by a great margin when it comes to stealth technologies. Let's accept the facts here. There must be strong reasons why US air supermacy remains unchallenged around the globe.

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## BetterPakistan

Paksanity said:


> Sir please take a serious unbiased look when comparing Russian and US defence industry. US is far far ahead. There is no way PAKFA can even come close to F-35. Russian program is in serious trouble and might not even satisfy all requirements to be called a 5th gen fighter. Chinese are in better position to field their aircraft earlier than Russians. They too, however have serious shortcomings especially on the fields of engine, metallurgy and avionics. US leads by a great margin when it comes to stealth technologies. Let's accept the facts here. There must be strong reasons why US air supermacy remains unchallenged around the globe.



US have a big defense industry because NATO buys too much from US.
PAK FA when introduce gonna shock everyone.


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## Paksanity

BetterPakistan said:


> US have a big defense industry because NATO buys too much from US.
> *PAK FA when introduce gonna shock everyone.*




Even a Russian scientist working on the project wouldn't make such claims. I am not sure if you are personally involved in PAKFA development project. However history tells us that Western aircraft have shot down many more Russian aircraft than otherwise. I do not see how magically this is about to change. Till today US remains the *only* nation to operationally field stealth aircraft and has held this position since 1983. They have more than 30 years lead in this technology.

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## war&peace

BetterPakistan said:


> Sukhoi PAK-FA doesn't exist too.
> 
> Sukhoi PAK-FA will be equal to F-35 or better than that at half price.


Okay kiddo, just tell you the facts. Russian airframes are you can say arguably better than Americans, more manoeuvrable, can go faster, have more power radars that can see far and wide, but their woes are in rest of avionics and but that's not their main weakness, their main weakness is in the engine department. Any Russian engine is behind its western counterparts. These have lower thrust, lower reliability and shorter MTBF as compared to even older gen F-16s. Until Russia is able to address those issues, it cannot compete with west. I feel that even China will produce better engines than Russians due to either copying technology from west and their own research as they have more funds available than Russia now.


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## Zain Malik

cabatli_53 said:


> TFX is expensive compared to PAK-FA ? TF-X is not even exist. Where do you reach such information to compare with PAK-FA ? What about performance ? How do you know Turkish/British subsystem, sensor capabilities compared to Russians ?


Leave him he is mad....!!!



BetterPakistan said:


> PAK FA when introduce gonna shock everyone.


Are you a fortune teller Mr.



BetterPakistan said:


> TFX won't be more than some sort of US jets. Sukhoi PAK FA would be something new.
> F-16 a quite old program and is not better than Sukhoi Su-35 which is cheaper than F-16 latest blocks


You go and beg Russia to Give PAK FA to Pakistan..!!!






What so new in PAK FA...???

Look at Turkish Beats....

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## BetterPakistan

Zain Malik said:


> View attachment 323756
> 
> Leave him he is mad....!!!
> 
> 
> Are you a fortune teller Mr.
> 
> 
> You go and beg Russia to Give PAK FA to Pakistan..!!!
> 
> View attachment 323745
> 
> 
> What so new in PAK FA...???
> 
> Look at Turkish Beats....
> View attachment 323746
> View attachment 323747
> View attachment 323748




not me, but you are actually a moron.

Mind your language before talking. You go and beg US and they will give you f-16 like they previously gave you kiddo. I bet Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than all these and kiddos like you will see it and not me but you are a psycho.



war&peace said:


> Okay kiddo, just tell you the facts. Russian airframes are you can say arguably better than Americans, more manoeuvrable, can go faster, have more power radars that can see far and wide, but their woes are in rest of avionics and but that's not their main weakness, their main weakness is in the engine department. Any Russian engine is behind its western counterparts. These have lower thrust, lower reliability and shorter MTBF as compared to even older gen F-16s. Until Russia is able to address those issues, it cannot compete with west. I feel that even China will produce better engines than Russians due to either copying technology from west and their own research as they have more funds available than Russia now.



kid,  
Russian jets are always better and cheap than US ones. Go and beg US for f-35s and we will see the same thing we saw when we demanded f-16s. I don't know when you guys will understand and for your information Chinese military heavily depends on Russian equipment. Go and search something first.


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## Zain Malik

BetterPakistan said:


> not me, but you are actually a moron.
> 
> Mind your language before talking. You go and beg US and they will give you f-16 like they previously gave you kiddo. I bet Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than all these and kiddos like you will see it and not me but you are a psycho.


Grow up to be a man mate...!!


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## BetterPakistan

Paksanity said:


> Even a Russian scientist working on the project wouldn't make such claims. I am not sure if you are personally involved in PAKFA development project. However history tells us that Western aircraft have shot down many more Russian aircraft than otherwise. I do not see how magically this is about to change. Till today US remains the *only* nation to operationally field stealth aircraft and has held this position since 1983. They have more than 30 years lead in this technology.



You forgot something known as Soviet Union. I don't know who told you that west shot down more russian aircrafts. Chinese military heavily depends on russian equipment too. One thing more Russian jets are cheap and equal or better than US ones.


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## BetterPakistan

Zain Malik said:


> Grow up to be a man mate...!!



You be a man first and respect others. If you cannot argue with someone then leave instead of saying that he is mad. I can prove Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than tfx in 2 minutes. If you don't know how to talk than get lost, you idiot.


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## Zain Malik

BetterPakistan said:


> Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than tfx in 2 minutes


Let's do it.
Show me what you have to prove then I will tell you how am I expert in aerial warfare...
Come On Show me how PAK FA is better....

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## singlefighter

Dear brother we r talking about the superior technology. When we saw around the world the non stealth aircrafts the EFT is best one of non stealth category which have the best engine and avionics airframe life and other components. They are expensive becoz best thing is always expensive.so if the british BAE is in collaboration with TAI then it mean this TFX will be also one the best aircraft of the future .and if we will be 20 % partner of tyhis project it will cost around 2 billion dollar deal in next 9 years then its not a big price for learning and getting absolutely world class aircraft for our future requirements it will give confidence to our engineers and alot of knowledge if we joins turkish brothers in this big ticket deal.thanks

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## singlefighter

And about PAK-FA its a russian and indian joint venture so indian will not be happy if Pakistan will get any info about this technological giant project so nothing personal but Pakistan should not enter there becoz that will be loss time and energy.we can also collaborate with chinese counterparts on J 31 if we want to buy a ready to fly aircraft on cheap price rates


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## cabatli_53

BetterPakistan said:


> I can prove Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than tfx in 2 minutes.



I am waiting for your proof with bated breath.

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## Path-Finder

BetterPakistan said:


> You be a man first and respect others. If you cannot argue with someone then leave instead of saying that he is mad. I can prove Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than tfx in 2 minutes. If you don't know how to talk than get lost, you idiot.


I just read this post and well, You can prove one fighter near ready is better than a fighter not even on the drawing board. I assume you have insight into the future.

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## Paksanity

BetterPakistan said:


> You forgot something known as Soviet Union. I don't know who told you that west shot down more russian aircrafts. Chinese military heavily depends on russian equipment too. One thing more Russian jets are cheap and equal or better than US ones.



Soviet Union is long gone and it's aircraft were inferior to West. For this reason it relied heavily on ballistic missiles instead of aircraft. Please look at things rationally. Do not be emotionally attached to anything. You may not like US but it is hard to deny the fact that US is world leader in military aviation.

There is not even a slightest chance of Pakistan getting PAKFA. India is partner in this project. How can we even think about PAKFA?

Only realistic choices are Chinese J-31 and TFX. Now Turkish industry on its own is not as advance as Russian but they have European support who are far more advanced than Russia or China. They have a good chance. Aircraft development is complex and tricky and one can not predict before an aircraft goes through flight testing so it remains to be seen which one would be better for Pakistan; Chinese or Turkish.

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## jupiter2007

BetterPakistan said:


> not me, but you are actually a moron.
> 
> Mind your language before talking. You go and beg US and they will give you f-16 like they previously gave you kiddo. I bet Sukhoi PAK FA will be better than all these and kiddos like you will see it and not me but you are a psycho.
> 
> 
> 
> kid,
> Russian jets are always better and cheap than US ones. Go and beg US for f-35s and we will see the same thing we saw when we demanded f-16s. I don't know when you guys will understand and for your information Chinese military heavily depends on Russian equipment. Go and search something first.




Son, 
Price is not everything...there are so many things are involve when acquiring a new plateform....just to name few things...technology, spares, maintenance cost, operational cost, etc.

Ask yourself, why Pakistan refuse to acquire FBC/Jh-7a/b? And still no decision on J-10c...


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## Imtiaz_Sarwar

BetterPakistan said:


> Why not Sukhoi PAK FA? Turkish TFX is quite expensive compare to Sukhoi PAK FA and won't be better than Sukhoi PAK FA?


The question to ask about Sukhoi PAK-FA is that will Russia give us this plane ? Lets say for the sake of argument that Russia sells this plane to us. Then there is always the threat of sanctions. How do we know Russia will not apply sanctions on us if relations with India deteriorate. Although Pakistan's relations are gradually improving with Russia, but if Russia has to choose between Pakistan and India, Russia will always favor India. This is something we should never forget.
Compared with that Turkey will never apply sanctions on us no matter what we do. Turkey will also be sympathetic if we ask for transfer of technology. We can also go for joint venture and produce some parts in Pakistan. Right now both TFX and PAK-FA are years away from deployment. I don't know how much each aircraft will cost but we should choose wisely.



BetterPakistan said:


> TFX won't be more than some sort of US jets. Sukhoi PAK FA would be something new.
> F-16 a quite old program and is not better than Sukhoi Su-35 which is cheaper than F-16 latest blocks.


Please read the post from our turkish friend. US is not involved in TFX. It is BAE a Britain company that is involved with the design of this aircraft.


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## MastanKhan

jupiter2007 said:


> Son,
> Price is not everything...there are so many things are involve when acquiring a new plateform....just to name few things...technology, spares, maintenance cost, operational cost, etc.
> 
> Ask yourself, why Pakistan refuse to acquire FBC/Jh-7a/b? And still no decision on J-10c...



Hi,

Because of the F16 Mafia---and out of sheer arrogance.



BetterPakistan said:


> Why not Sukhoi PAK FA? Turkish TFX is quite expensive compare to Sukhoi PAK FA and won't be better than Sukhoi PAK FA?



Hi,

Our alliance and current stand will get us the J31---and if things got worst for china---we wil be in line for the J20 as well.

You have to understand what is hap[pening with china---.

It is caught with its pants down in the south china seas---or in a matter of time frame---it has been caught in a tough spot--a-round 15 years ahead of time.

So---all the chinese research and funding is directed towards these two platforms---the J20 directly---and J31---waiting for the final results of the J20---.

So---by default---if going by the amount of money available---research scientists and engineers available for the project and resourcefulness and help from many direction---the chinese stealth aircraft would come out ahead of the russian.

A 5 years period would place the chinese stealth aircraft in a different position from where it is today---but it may not have the 5 years time period.

Now as for the turkish involvement---they can compliment the pakistani aircraft of chinese origin with their EW suite

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## araz

cabatli_53 said:


> I don't have capability of realizing the difference between a Russian fighter prototype and non-existent fighter called TFX that is in its detail design phase.


Hello cabatli.
Can I ask you what your assesment is regarding the long term procurement of f35 by the Turkish Air force and how this is going to be effected by the TFX if at all?
Also in the growing unease between the US and Turkey do you see the Turkish acquisition of F35 going through or there being some problems?
Your insight will be appreciated.
REGARDS
A

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## cabatli_53

araz said:


> Hello cabatli.
> Can I ask you what your assesment is regarding the long term procurement of f35 by the Turkish Air force and how this is going to be effected by the TFX if at all?
> Also in the growing unease between the US and Turkey do you see the Turkish acquisition of F35 going through or there being some problems?
> Your insight will be appreciated.
> REGARDS
> A



Bro,

TF-X is to replace the F-16's and TF-X will be used for the requirements met by current F-16's. (Air superiority fighter)
F-35 is to replace aged F-4 fleet of TurAF and will be used for the requirements met by current F-4 2020 (Bombardment)

Growing tension always affect the military acquisitions to be done with USA. It depends on How forward the governments will proceed to obstinate with each-others. Before coup attempt, USA and Turkey relations were not satisfactory level as well. You know USA is actively supplying to a terrorist organization called PYD which has deep ties with PKK, Although Turkey warned many times. The anti-tank/aircraft weapons supplied by our allies, hit our tanks and helicopters in S. East. There are many PYD members inside of PKK which is identified by our forces while collecting the dead bodies but Being inside of same club called NATO and having many collaborations/cooperations/technical issues/payments/bases with USA firms/officials, The Putting all cooperation aside is almost impossible. In that circumstances, Governments always try to give some diplomatic reactions at such incidents, While proceeding the trade relations not to harm economical ties so F-35 project will also proceed that way and Turkey will receive the fighters at the beginning of 2019 as promised. Contrary situation results serious consequences to both side.

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## Paksanity

cabatli_53 said:


> Bro,
> 
> TF-X is to replace the F-16's and TF-X will be used for the requirements met by current F-16's. (Air superiority fighter)
> F-35 is to replace aged F-4 fleet of TurAF and will be used for the requirements met by current F-4 2020 (Bombardment)
> 
> Growing tension always affect the military acquisitions to be done with USA. It depends on How forward the governments will proceed to obstinate with each-others. Before coup attempt, USA and Turkey relations were not satisfactory level as well. You know USA is actively supplying to a terrorist organization called PYD which has deep ties with PKK, Although Turkey warned many times. The anti-tank/aircraft weapons supplied by our allies, hit our tanks and helicopters in S. East. There are many PYD members inside of PKK which is identified by our forces while collecting the dead bodies but Being inside of same club called NATO and having many collaborations/cooperations/technical issues/payments/bases with USA firms/officials, The Putting all cooperation aside is almost impossible. In that circumstances, Governments always try to give some diplomatic reactions at such incidents, While proceeding the trade relations not to harm economical ties so F-35 project will also proceed that way and Turkey will receive the fighters at the beginning of 2019 as promised. Contrary situation results serious consequences to both side.




How far, in your opinion, Europeans will go in defence collaboration with Turkey against US wishes? Will they be able to resist US pressure if it comes to that? As I understand, Europeans are to play an important role in the development of TFX especially engine.

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## SBD-3

TFX, well looking at the progress of JSF,PAK-FA and J-20 programs, I'd rather say good luck to Turkey. All these countries have long and proven experience of aircraft manufacturing. I'd rather say Turkish friends should save their money and focus on increased localization of JSF. For Air superiority next gen, they might have a look at F-15SE with ToPT.


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## cabatli_53

According to source:

*Pakistan Navy fleet tanker ship designed by STM launched on sea and STM company achieved great efforts and satisfied Pakistani officials so Second deal is also given to STM. 

*Second contract: Agosta class submarine modernization (1 certain, 2 option) worth 300 million $

*After those deals, The cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey will be accelerated more. The T-129 Atak deal and Milgem Corvette agreement will follow. 

*According to source, Pakistan wants to be a part of *TF-X fighter project* as well. 

http://www.kokpit.aero/turkiye-tarihinde-bir-ilk

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## Tipu7

Well 

@Quwa @Windjammer @cabatli_53

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## Lone Ranger

Tipu7 said:


> Well
> 
> @Quwa @Windjammer @cabatli_53
> 
> View attachment 327776


Translation?


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## Tipu7

NOMAN SALEEM said:


> Translation?


Requesting any Turkish friend for word to word translation.....

Turkish Defense Industry Counselor (Ismail Demir) is claiming that both Pakistan & Turkey will jointly produce TFX ..... this is as far as I know


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## cabatli_53

Tipu7 said:


> Well
> 
> @Quwa @Windjammer @cabatli_53
> 
> View attachment 327776




Under secretariat of Turkish defense industry, İsmail Demir: Turkey's domestic fighter project is opened to brother state Pakistan and We are really happy to receive positive feed backs from Pakistani officials. In following years, We may see (Turkey&Pakistan) co-production fighter jets flying on sky.

BTW, SSM and TAI have signed main contractor agreement in recent week. After failed "Western" backed terrorist coup attempt in Turkey, The Turkish officials agreed to accelerate a couple of strategic defense project including TF-X and the first prototype is planned to be revealed before 2023.

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## XILLAX

What can Pakistan contributing for the TFX ?? Only cash !


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## Tipu7

Experience of developing fighter aircraft.


XILLAX said:


> What can Pakistan contributing for the TFX ?? Only cash !

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## Quwa

XILLAX said:


> What can Pakistan contributing for the TFX ?? Only cash !


Scale. Development is costly, but the more units you produce - i.e. via exports and partners - the lower your unit cost in the long-term. It isn't a fancy contribution, but it helps in that it'll enable TAI and other Turkish companies to have a better chance at breaking even. If and when they do, then you can more readily engage in other development projects. Alternatively, Pakistan might end up being a source for cheaper manufacturing in some areas.

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## Hell hound

cabatli_53 said:


> According to source, Pakistan wants to be a part of *TF-X fighter project* as well.


if britons are involved we should too. we will never get the chance like this again.best thing about tfx will be that it will be westren but still be out of clutches of american sanctions .



cabatli_53 said:


> Under secretariat of Turkish defense industry, İsmail Demir: Turkey's domestic fighter project is opened to brother state Pakistan and We are really happy to receive positive feed backs from Pakistani officials. In following years, We may see (Turkey&Pakistan) co-production fighter jets flying on sky.
> 
> BTW, SSM and TAI have signed main contractor agreement in recent week. After failed "Western" backed terrorist coup attempt in Turkey, The Turkish officials agreed to accelerate a couple of strategic defense project including TF-X and the first prototype is planned to be revealed before 2023.


(assume the second flag to be turkish one)

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## Tajdar adil

Well Pakistan need to join that kind of joint programs with China and Turkey it will really improve our strength

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## Syed Hussain

Beating drums over something that is still in "papers" and ignoring something already in the air for four years, always attracted by "door k dhol"

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## Hassan Guy

We should probably produce our own...


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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

Syed Hussain said:


> Beating drums over something that is still in "papers" and ignoring something already in the air for four years, always attracted by "door k dhol"


In general you're correct, but we don't judge specific cases based on generalities.

In the case of its next-generation fighter hopes, the PAF has to weigh several considerations. 

Yes, the J-31 is already flying in the air, but did you know that the PLAAF or even PLAN have not committed to the platform for their own needs? Last time AVIC spoke, it was in negotiations with those parties, but as of today, the J-31 does not have a domestic customer in China. 

Why is this important? 

Well, developing a next-generation fighter isn't cheap; a good design would require at least several billion dollars in R&D. In other words, when it comes to a next-gen design, you are paying for both the cost of materials and labour as well as the R&D overhead. 

Equation: [Cost of Material/Labour] + [Cost of R&D]. 

If the R&D costs $3 billion and the cost of material and labour for each jet is $50 million, then for 50 planes you are looking at spending a total of $5.5 billion. The unit cost is $110 million.

Now if the PLAAF steps in and says, "we'll buy 100 units" then the situation changes. The R&D ($3bn) + $50m per plane for 150 planes would cost a total of $10.5bn, which is $70 million per plane. 

If there aren't enough units being produced to distribute the R&D overhead, then the unit cost (on paper) of each fighter will be higher. AVIC is very openly asking for a foreign customer to share the R&D overhead as well as serve as the launch customer for the fighter. As of yet, AVIC will not promise a domestic Chinese customer (and even if it does, keep in mind that China bailed from its commitment to buy 200 JF-17s).

So ... the PAF is now left with the question of whether it can handle the R&D overhead on its own. Unlike the JF-17, the FC-31 is a much more complex and high-tech platform, and there will be issues along the developmental track. One has to anticipate delays, technical issues, etc, and if they occur, the PAF will have to pay (and in turn add that to the R&D). Hence the unit cost of each fighter will keep climbing *unless* the PAF adds more orders.

On the other hand, the Turkish TFX is ultimately for the Turkish Air Force. If the Turkish Air Force wants 200 TFX, then it will carry the R&D overhead and serve as the main launch customer. Pakistan is a non-factor to the success of the TFX program, but Pakistani support is a necessity for the FC-31.

This ends up with an interesting situation. Imagine if Pakistan just had $3 billion to spend on a next-generation fighter. It could either commit that amount to AVIC for the development of the FC-31, which could be cheaper than the TFX in the end, but run the risk of having no money afterward to actually buy that fighter. Remember, it is $3bn (for R&D) + the amount it costs to actually produce the fighters. 

OR

The PAF could take that $3bn and spend on buying 20-30 TFX and at least have the fighter in the end. 

This is what the PAF has to carefully examine. The entire situation could change if Beijing decides to fully invest in the FC-31 (i.e. take away with the R&D expense) for the sake of having an export fighter. But as of now, AVIC does not have that support.

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## Signalian

Anything coming from Turkey is not fulfilling the criteria so far.


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## The SC

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> In general you're correct, but we don't judge specific cases based on generalities.
> 
> In the case of its next-generation fighter hopes, the PAF has to weigh several considerations.
> 
> Yes, the J-31 is already flying in the air, but did you know that the PLAAF or even PLAN have not committed to the platform for their own needs? Last time AVIC spoke, it was in negotiations with those parties, but as of today, the J-31 does not have a domestic customer in China.
> 
> Why is this important?
> 
> Well, developing a next-generation fighter isn't cheap; a good design would require at least several billion dollars in R&D. In other words, when it comes to a next-gen design, you are paying for both the cost of materials and labour as well as the R&D overhead.
> 
> Equation: [Cost of Material/Labour] + [Cost of R&D].
> 
> If the R&D costs $3 billion and the cost of material and labour for each jet is $50 million, then for 50 planes you are looking at spending a total of $5.5 billion. The unit cost is $110 million.
> 
> Now if the PLAAF steps in and says, "we'll buy 100 units" then the situation changes. The R&D ($3bn) + $50m per plane for 150 planes would cost a total of $10.5bn, which is $70 million per plane.
> 
> If there aren't enough units being produced to distribute the R&D overhead, then the unit cost (on paper) of each fighter will be higher. AVIC is very openly asking for a foreign customer to share the R&D overhead as well as serve as the launch customer for the fighter. As of yet, AVIC will not promise a domestic Chinese customer (and even if it does, keep in mind that China bailed from its commitment to buy 200 JF-17s).
> 
> So ... the PAF is now left with the question of whether it can handle the R&D overhead on its own. Unlike the JF-17, the FC-31 is a much more complex and high-tech platform, and there will be issues along the developmental track. One has to anticipate delays, technical issues, etc, and if they occur, the PAF will have to pay (and in turn add that to the R&D). Hence the unit cost of each fighter will keep climbing *unless* the PAF adds more orders.
> 
> On the other hand, the Turkish TFX is ultimately for the Turkish Air Force. If the Turkish Air Force wants 200 TFX, then it will carry the R&D overhead and serve as the main launch customer. Pakistan is a non-factor to the success of the TFX program, but Pakistani support is a necessity for the FC-31.
> 
> This ends up with an interesting situation. Imagine if Pakistan just had $3 billion to spend on a next-generation fighter. It could either commit that amount to AVIC for the development of the FC-31, which could be cheaper than the TFX in the end, but run the risk of having no money afterward to actually buy that fighter. Remember, it is $3bn (for R&D) + the amount it costs to actually produce the fighters.
> 
> OR
> 
> The PAF could take that $3bn and spend on buying 20-30 TFX and at least have the fighter in the end.
> 
> This is what the PAF has to carefully examine. The entire situation could change if Beijing decides to fully invest in the FC-31 (i.e. take away with the R&D expense) for the sake of having an export fighter. But as of now, AVIC does not have that support.


How come AVIC is still working on the FC-31 v2? It has some kind of support supposedly!
Pakistan should commit a few hundred million dollars to the TFX program and send a few engineers/scientists to Turkey, because the program is going to be highly sophisticated and thus very beneficial technology wise..Even RR is getting involved for the Engine and for tank engines too! So my take is that pakistan will get a lot of benefits by participating, even if the amount of money is symbolic..

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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

The SC said:


> How come AVIC is still working on the FC-31 v2? It has some kind of support supposedly!
> Pakistan should commit a few hundred million dollars to the TFX program and send a few engineers/scientists to Turkey, because the program is going to be highly sophisticated and thus very beneficial technology wise..Even RR is getting involved for the Engine and for tank engines too! So my take is that pakistan will get a lot of benefits by participating, even if the amount of money is symbolic..


AVIC is a state-owned enterprise, yes, but it still operates at relative arms-length from Beijing. Not everything it does necessarily has the backing of domestic users or the Chinese governments. That money AVIC is putting into the J-31 program at the moment, expect it and Beijing to want to make a return on the investment, somehow.

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## The SC

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> AVIC is a state-owned enterprise, yes, but it still operates at relative arms-length from Beijing. Not everything it does necessarily has the backing of domestic users or the Chinese governments. That money AVIC is putting into the J-31 program at the moment, expect it and Beijing to want to make a return on the investment, somehow.


Doesn't this mean some guarantee for the continuation of the program, since both have committed time, energy and money to it?


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## Bilal Khan (Quwa)

The SC said:


> Doesn't this mean some guarantee for the continuation of the program, since both have committed time, energy and money to it?


Not necessarily. AVIC itself is saying that there won't be an FC-31 without an export partner to help share R&D costs and to serve as the launch customer. In other words, the success of the FC-31 seems to be dependent (at least for now) on securing that export customer. Yes, some R&D is being footed, but not all, at least not enough to make the production ready FC-31 (which AVIC is conditioning on the availability of a partner).

The R&D work is valuable in of itself, but it doesn't appear to be at the level necessary to bring a production ready fighter - for that, AVIC is looking for an export client (who in turn would share in the development funding).

As of today, the bulk of emerging next-gen fighters seem to cost $7-10 billion in terms of development. If AVIC is covering a big chunk of the R&D requirement, then the prospective partner could just be on the hook for $3 billion U.S. Unfortunately for Pakistan, $3bn is a lot of money (and we can go back to my earlier post about costs).

The PAF is looking at two options:

1. Spending $3bn in order to make the FC-31 a reality, but be at risk of not having enough to actually buy units.

2. Spending $3bn on an off-the-shelf next-gen fighter which will be a reality, but take the risk of waiting for a horse that might get aborted.

The saving grace would be the Chinese gov't giving AVIC the necessary funding to bring the FC-31 to fruition, and in turn, enable AVIC to offer the FC-31 as an off-the-shelf fighter.

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## The SC

Bilal Khan (Quwa) said:


> Not necessarily. AVIC itself is saying that there won't be an FC-31 without an export partner to help share R&D costs and to serve as the launch customer. In other words, the success of the FC-31 seems to be dependent (at least for now) on securing that export customer. Yes, some R&D is being footed, but not all, at least not enough to make the production ready FC-31 (which AVIC is conditioning on the availability of a partner).
> 
> The R&D work is valuable in of itself, but it doesn't appear to be at the level necessary to bring a production ready fighter - for that, AVIC is looking for an export client (who in turn would share in the development funding).
> 
> As of today, the bulk of emerging next-gen fighters seem to cost $7-10 billion in terms of development. If AVIC is covering a big chunk of the R&D requirement, then the prospective partner could just be on the hook for $3 billion U.S. Unfortunately for Pakistan, $3bn is a lot of money (and we can go back to my earlier post about costs).
> 
> The PAF is looking at two options:
> 
> 1. Spending $3bn in order to make the FC-31 a reality, but be at risk of not having enough to actually buy units.
> 
> 2. Spending $3bn on an off-the-shelf next-gen fighter which will be a reality, but take the risk of waiting for a horse that might get aborted.
> 
> The saving grace would be the Chinese gov't giving AVIC the necessary funding to bring the FC-31 to fruition, and in turn, enable AVIC to offer the FC-31 as an off-the-shelf fighter.



China should pour in the necessary funds, it might get it back in 10 folds due to the limited availability of the 5th generation fighters. The only one on the market for now is the US F-35, and PAK-FA is coming around 2020, so there is a niche in there and a market share for the taking..provided they come up with a potent and competitively priced 5th G fighter..


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## dani958

without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter


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## salarsikander

dani958 said:


> without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter


Bull shit.


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## Hassan Guy

dani958 said:


> without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter


thats true



salarsikander said:


> Bull shit.


nope he's right, especially 5th gen


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> thats true
> 
> 
> nope he's right, especially 5th gen


In.what sense....??? He is right...


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## salarsikander

Hassan Guy said:


> nope he's right, especially 5th gen


Yes Like Isreal can then ? One learn from blocks. They have quite good established Aeronautical industry


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> In.what sense....??? He is right...


5th gen is more complicated, Turkey doesn't even produce a 4th gen fighter.


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## Zain Malik

dani958 said:


> without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter


Turkey is making F-16s not a child's play..
They have funds and capability both.



Hassan Guy said:


> 5th gen is more complicated, Turkey doesn't even produce a 4th gen fighter.


And what about f_16 isn't it a 4th gen..


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## Ultima Thule

Zain Malik said:


> In.what sense....??? He is right...


i think he refers to engine


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> Turkey is making F-16s not a child's play..
> They have funds and capability both.
> 
> 
> And what about f_16 isn't it a 4th gen..


Building under licence doesn't count, We saw how well top Soviet Aircraft Manufactured in India helped their Industry back in the 60's and 70's.


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> Building under licence doesn't count, We saw how well top Soviet Aircraft Manufactured in India helped their Industry back in the 60's and 70's.


But they will do it...
Sure.
Though BAE is helping but you know list partners are required to do it in more obvious way.


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> But they will do it...
> Sure.
> Though BAE is helping but you know list partners are required to do it in more obvious way.


BAE is helping, they will be fine. The TFX will be built. Pakistan should start a similar program.


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## Zain Malik

Participate.


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## nomi007

the future of this project is same as 
of 
*IAI Lavi*


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## cabatli_53

dani958 said:


> without bae help turkey cant develop any fighter



The countries having aerospace Design/Production capability can develop a fighter but just a fighter. You can outsource the parts that you can't develop and later, assemble them in home but The actual question is How good it will be ? Turkey wants a real strong air dominance fighter jet from aerodynamics to missiles, computers, avionics, electronic warfare and surveillance assets called TF-X which is able to protect Turkish air space against the most modern fighters such as Greek F-16 Block-52+, and Russian fighters. It is the reason Turkey wants a strong partner not to risk the future of project.

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## Zain Malik

nomi007 said:


> the future of this project is same as
> of
> *IAI Lavi*



No way this will be a successful project...


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## Preacher

I think Pakistan's OR Rather (Pakistanis) apparent interest on the coming SAC FC-31 is not a fair deal - considering the aircraft being vastly different when it's %100 operational rather instate-able to PAF as a fifth-generation-platform ---- to make matters worse, China is not yet interested in buying it, so if the PAF decides to invest, it'll be responsible for most of the costs as said by a senior member.

This means it'll be very expensive and maybe not much cheaper than the TFX or KFX


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## nomi007

Zain Malik said:


> No way this will be a successful project...


Turkey is key part of F-35 project
Senario is same
in past lavi was threat to F-16
and tfx will be threat to F-35


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## Basel

TFX will be supirior to FC-31 because it will be primary front line fighter jet of Turkey built with support of Best what west can offer, its J-20 of turkey while FC-31 is orphan child who needs parents.

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## Irfan Baloch

Basel said:


> TFX will be supirior to FC-31 because it will be primary front line fighter jet of Turkey built with support of Best what west can offer, its J-20 of turkey while FC-31 is orphan child who needs parents.


Pakistan has restrictions on high end western technology making it an impossible project


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## Hassan Guy

Irfan Baloch said:


> Pakistan has restrictions on high end western technology making it an impossible project


It will be Turkish tech, what is Pakistan? Iran? Of course we can get western tech.....if we can pay.


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## Basel

Irfan Baloch said:


> Pakistan has restrictions on high end western technology making it an impossible project



As per Turkish members there will be no restrictions on tech for exports and partners and that is one point which western companies have to accept to be part of TFX program. @cabatli_53 @HAKIKAT

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## royalharris

Basel said:


> TFX will be supirior to FC-31 because it will be primary front line fighter jet of Turkey built with support of Best what west can offer, its J-20 of turkey while FC-31 is orphan child who needs parents.


what the BS, TFX is just a fighter on paper, you people think it is superior than FC31 which have already flied into sky two years ago.
what a licker you are


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## Ultima Thule

Basel said:


> As per Turkish members there will be no restrictions on tech for exports and partners and that is one point which western companies have to accept to be part of TFX program. @cabatli_53 @HAKIKAT


Sir TFX in its initial phase of development mass production of TFX will be in 2028-2030 time frame, it is wise to invest J-31 which will be in 2022-2025 time frame, if possible put avionics and radar of TFX in J-31


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## Hassan Guy

pakistanipower said:


> Sir TFX in its initial phase of development mass production of TFX will be in 2028-2030 time frame, it is wise to invest J-31 which will be in 2022-2025 time frame, if possible put avionics and radar of TFX in J-31


Why would anyone want that happen?

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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> Why would anyone want that happen?



You probably dont know the strength of your enemy.


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> You probably dont know the strength of your enemy.


I mean put TFX equipment in a J-31.


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> I mean put TFX equipment in a J-31.


Why not directly go for it..??


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> Why not directly go for it..??


But Why?


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## Ultima Thule

Hassan Guy said:


> I mean put TFX equipment in a J-31.


If turkey agree that will be a possibilty, avionics and radar technology will be turks property not westren technology so why not


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## Hassan Guy

pakistanipower said:


> If turkey agree that will be a possibilty, avionics and radar technology will be turks property not westren technology so why not


By why would anyone want that to be in a J-31?


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> But Why?


But why put all of its systems in J-31..??


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> But why put all of its systems in J-31..??


There is no need.


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> There is no need.


of what..???


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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> of what..???


To put TFX avionics in a J-31, why would anyone want to do that?


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## Zain Malik

Hassan Guy said:


> To put TFX avionics in a J-31, why would anyone want to do that?


Apologies .. Misunderstanding.



Zain Malik said:


> You said that...Not me...





Hassan Guy said:


> To put TFX avionics in a J-31, why would anyone want to do that?


I dont want that..
I want having both of these platforms.


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## ACE OF THE AIR

Irfan Baloch said:


> Pakistan has restrictions on high end western technology making it an impossible project


Sir,
Turkey is not a western country, ITS ASIAN. However it lies to the West of Pakistan Geographically.

If ISTANBUL was the capital then Turkey would have been a Western Country. As the Turkish capital is Ankara which is in Asia it is an Asian country. 

Now for the technology transfer part of your post. 
A product can be transferred in two ways legally:

1) Agreement with the Patent holder to transfer his patent and copyright along with the sale at a price. 
2) Developing the product together becoming patent and copyright holders from the first day of research. 

Now what Turkey plans to do is use both methods, where they can not get their scientists involved from day one they would purchase the product along with the patent and copyright like the case of Engines. Where they have the their scientist working they would ask experts who would collaborate on this project by providing their knowlege hence become Patent holders for the end product.

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## Hassan Guy

Zain Malik said:


> Apologies .. Misunderstanding.
> 
> 
> 
> I dont want that..
> I want having both of these platforms.


Pakistan should probably start it's own program.


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## ACE OF THE AIR

Hassan Guy said:


> Pakistan should probably start it's own program.


Are you paying?

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## Ultima Thule

Zain Malik said:


> I want having both of these platforms.


Extremely prohibitive for Pakistan, and why we will need different jets with similar capabilities


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