# French Presidential and Legislative Elections 2017-News and Updates



## Vergennes

The next french presidential elections will be held in April and May 2017 to replace the current Socialist president François Hollande. 
The first round will he held on April the 23rd and the secound round on May the 7th. 
General elections will be held one month later.
-
The Greens have held a primary to designate their candidate,while Republicans and the Socialists primaries are coming soon.
-
The announced candidates for the Presidential election.

*Nicolas Dupont-Aignan*,member of parliament for Essone and president of *France Arise*. (Debout la France)







*Yannick Jadot*,member of the european parliament,the *Greens*. (Europe-Écologie Les verts)






*Marine Le Pen*,member of the european parliament,and president of the *National Front*. (Front National)






*Nathalie Artaud*,current spokesperson of the *Worker's struggle*. (Lutte Ouvrière)






*Philippe Poutou*,member of the *New Anti Capitalist Party*. (Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste)






*Jean-Luc Mélanchon*,member of parliament from the south,*Left Party*. (Parti de Gauche)

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## Vergennes

The 2017 French Socialist Party presidential primary will be held on 22 January 2017 and 29 January to select candidate of the French* Socialist Party* (Parti Socialiste) and Radical Party of the Left for the 2017 presidential election.

Three candidates have already announced to participate in the primary,but others will follow,including probably the current president,François Hollande.

*Benoît Hamon*,member of parliament for Yvelines.






*Marie-Noëlle Lienemann*,member of senate for Paris.






*Arnaud Montebourg*,former Economy Minister.

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## Vergennes

*The Republicans* (Les Républicains) will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate for the 2017 presidential election on 20 November 2016, with a possible runoff on 27 November if no candidate obtains at least 50% of the vote in the first round.

The candidates are ;

*Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet*,member of parliament for Essone.






*Alain Juppé*,current mayor of Bordeaux.






*François Fillon*,member of parliament for Paris.






*Jean-François Copé*,member of parliament for Seine-Et-Marne.






*Nicolas Sarkozy*,former president of the Republicans.






*Bruno Le Maire*,member of parliament for Eure.






*Jean-Frédéric Poisson*,member of parliament for Yvelines,president of the *Christian Democratic Party*.

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## Blue Marlin

the world can do with another republican, buddies in arms.


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## Vergennes

*Emmanuel Macron could launch bid for French presidency before 10 December *







Emmanuel Macron has played on France’s disillusionment towards conventional politicians and political parties. Photograph: Isopix/Rex/Shutterstock

*Popular outsider’s team says ‘all conditions are in place’ for former economy minister to declare candidacy
*
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/08/emmanuel-macron-presidency-bid-former-economy-minister



Blue Marlin said:


> the world can do with another republican, buddies in arms.



Everything,but not a socialist,please.


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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> *Emmanuel Macron could launch bid for French presidency before 10 December *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Emmanuel Macron has played on France’s disillusionment towards conventional politicians and political parties. Photograph: Isopix/Rex/Shutterstock
> 
> *Popular outsider’s team says ‘all conditions are in place’ for former economy minister to declare candidacy
> *
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/08/emmanuel-macron-presidency-bid-former-economy-minister
> 
> 
> 
> Everything,but not a socialist,please.


yeah sarkozy and trump, they will grab the world by the pu$$y

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## Indus Pakistan

Vergennes said:


> *Yannick Jadot*,member of the european parliament,the *Greens*. (Europe-Écologie Les verts)


If I was French I would be partial to this guy. Looks intelligent and sincere.



Vergennes said:


> *François Fillon*,member of parliament for Paris.


But probably vote for him. Reminds me of Michel Lonsdale out of Day of the Jackal movie.

_*And I am partial to socialist parties although my income and social class would suggest otherwise._

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## Śakra

Marine Le Pen is gonna win!!


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## Desert Fox

Vergennes said:


> Everything,but not a socialist,please.



Socialists in a nutshell  :






@flamer84 @Nilgiri @T-72 @boomslang

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## Indus Pakistan

Desert Fox said:


> Socialists in a nutshell


Any chance you could give us something better than kindergarten stuff?

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## Nilgiri

Its going to have a big effect for sure.

"Bonne nouvelle pour notre pays"

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## Saho

Translation: Le Pen vs ???

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## Desert Fox

Kaptaan said:


> Any chance you could give us something better than kindergarten stuff?



There isn't much explanation necessary.

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## Mufflerman

Le Pen


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## Mahmoud_EGY

Śakra said:


> Marine Le Pen is gonna win!!


i wish so too then all that left is germany


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## Śakra

Mahmoud_EGY said:


> i wish so too then all that left is germany



NPD is making good progress too.

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## Vergennes

Kaptaan said:


> If I was French I would be partial to this guy. Looks intelligent and sincere.



I somewhat agree with you. You also should have seen his intervention on CETA in the european parliament in which he condemned the EU's liberal trade policy,went somewhat viral. @Nilgiri








> But probably vote for him. Reminds me of Michel Lonsdale out of Day of the Jackal movie.



I will be voting for François Fillon in the coming primary,I hope he wins,even if beating Sarkozy is a hard task. His popularity is growing,even more after the two TV debates where he was the most calm,serious,honest and the candidate that knew better all the subjects. He is considered to have the best project for a sick France of bureaucracy,trade unions,high taxes,low consumption,low growth,high unemployment etc.
He's being labelled by his adversaries as the 'Thatcher boy' (but he takes it as a compliment,he says she reformed her country) because of his very liberal and 'shock' project. But I believe that's what France needs.

Among many things he proposes ;

-€100 to €110Bn of public spending cuts.
-500.000 public sector jobs to be cut.
-Retirement age to increase from 60 to 65 years old.
-Legal weekly 35 working hours will disappear,public servants will see their weekly working hours increase from 35 to 39h. For businesses,local agreements will be negociated to choose a weekly working hour,but with the limit of 48h/week.
-Unemployment benefits to be cut after months,and cut a second times after some months.

The goal is also to make our groups more competitive,and make the french workers more cheaper to work.
€40Bn of tax cuts for businesses and reduce labor costs.
€10Bn tax cuts for the households,targeting the families. But V.A.T will increase by 2 points,not councerning the first necessity goods though.

But Republican's primary candidates have overall similar projects,but the numbers aren't really the same.



Saho said:


> Translation: Le Pen vs ???



Le Pen will be in secound round,no doubt about that. Now,winning is another story.



Mufflerman said:


> Le Pen





Mahmoud_EGY said:


> i wish so too then all that left is germany





Śakra said:


> Marine Le Pen is gonna win!!



Let's even suppose,by a general surprise that she wins. How will she form a government ? Will her party gain the majority in the parliament ? How would she form a coalition ? Zat iz ze qouestion!

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## vostok

The three leaders will look good together.

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## TMA

vostok said:


> The three leaders will look good together.
> View attachment 351342
> View attachment 351344


Trump and Le Pen combined cannot match one half of Putin.


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## waz

All the best to our French neighbours and friends.

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## Desert Fox

TMA said:


> Trump and Le Pen combined cannot match one half of Putin.



True, but it's a step in the right direction.

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## Desert Fox

*After Trump Win, Parallel Path Is Seen for Marine Le Pen of France’s Far Right*​

HÉNIN-BEAUMONT, France — It was a moment of intense French patriotism on a sunny Friday, Armistice Day. A band blared “La Marseillaise,” the national anthem. Shouts of “Vive la France!” filled the chilly November air. And there, too, was Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, beaming.

Before Donald J. Trump’s presidential victory in the United States this week, Ms. Le Pen was considered a disruptive political force but far from a true threat to become president herself when France votes next spring. Not anymore.

Since Wednesday, French news outlets, along with Ms. Le Pen’s mainstream political rivals, have been repeating the same thing: It could happen here.

And Ms. Le Pen is not alone. From the Balkans to the Netherlands, politicians on the far right have greeted the election of Mr. Trump with unrestrained delight and as a radical reconfiguring of the political landscape — not just in the United States, but in Europe as well.


They are seeing it as a sign that their time has finally arrived, and that the politics of heightened nationalism, immigrant-bashing and anti-globalization have overturned the pro-globalization, pro-immigration consensus.

“It shows that when the people really want something, they can get it,” Ms. Le Pen said in an interview on Friday in this far-right bastion, in France’s depressed postindustrial north.

“When the people want to retake their destiny in hand, they can do it, despite this ceaseless campaign of denigration and infantilization,” she said.

Far-right leaders competed in their fervor to support Mr. Trump. Those already in office, like Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, took the news of Mr. Trump’s victory as a vindication of their stances. Those seeking office, like Ms. Le Pen or Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, saw it as a hopeful sign for their own aspirations, proclaiming that a revolutionary new order was born this week.

That revolution, they said, has overthrown what they called the “elites” — the mainstream news media and establishment politicians — who are in a tacit alliance.

The enthusiasm of the far right was in striking contrast to the coolness of Europe’s mainstream leaders to the week’s news. Some of them, like Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, offered veiled criticism even as they sent Mr. Trump pro forma letters of congratulation.

“It’s the emergence of a new world,” Ms. Le Pen said, after being the first to lay a wreath at the monument here to France’s World War I dead. “It’s the end of the 20th century.”

Even more ecstatic was Mr. Wilders, leader of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party. “Congratulations! A historic victory! A revolution! We will return our country to the Dutch,” Mr. Wilders said on Wednesday on Twitter. He expanded on his thoughts in an op-ed for Breitbart, writing, “We are witnessing the same uprising on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Mr. Wilders, who sports his own Trumpian mane of swept blond hair, is on trial in the Netherlands on charges of hate speech for suggesting that the country was home to too many Moroccans. He refused to attend the trial or to disavow the remarks.

His party is allied with Ms. Le Pen’s National Front in the European Parliament, and both are staunchly anti-immigration. He attended several Trump rallies, and like Ms. Le Pen, he is seeking to be his country’s leader.

Populist leaders, not necessarily of the far right, who have mounted insurgent challenges to longstanding political orders were similarly buoyed by Mr. Trump’s victory, like Beppe Grillo, the leader of the Five Star Movement in Italy.

“They called us sexists, homophobes, demagogues and populists,” Mr. Grillo wrote in a blog post. “They don’t realize that millions of people already no longer read their newspapers and no longer watch their television.”

The idea that Mr. Trump’s supporters had delivered a double blow — to the establishment’s ideas and to the “elite” itself — had wide support.

“The left and the corrupt establishment, which considers itself so superior, are being punished blow by blow by the voters and voted out of various positions of responsibility,” said Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the Freedom Party of Austria, a serious contender to win the country’s presidency on Dec. 4.

Ms. Le Pen in many ways stands as the most prominent leader of Europe’s far right. The French political establishment was in consensus this week that the news from the United States had put new wind in her political sails.

“Mrs. Le Pen could win in France,” said the former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, usually known for his sobriety.

A cartoon on the front page of the leading daily Le Monde this week showed a grinning Mr. Trump giving the V for victory sign while a winged Ms. Le Pen happily flew away, with the caption, “Marine Le Pen feels wings grow.”

Some analysts, however, pointed out that she faces significant barriers.

For months, it has been an article of faith in France that Ms. Le Pen will reach the runoff in next year’s presidential elections, but will find it impossible to break through the 30-percent barrier that has roughly comprised the National Front’s share of the vote.

In France, voters on the left and right routinely join in the final round of voting, to form what is called a “republican front” to defeat the candidate of the far right.

Experts suggested on Friday that similar logic might operate next year, and that Ms. Le Pen is no Mr. Trump.

“Le Pen is the candidate of a party that is on the margins of the system,” said Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on Europe’s far-right parties. “Donald Trump was the candidate of the Republican Party. He had resources that were not comparable to hers.”

Ms. Le Pen was in friendly territory here on Friday in this worn, old former coal-mining town, where unemployment reaches 20 percent, twice the national average.

It is one of 11 or so towns in France ruled by the National Front, and it was difficult to find an opposing voice on Friday. “You’re a fantastic woman!” a woman called out to Ms. Le Pen as she ascended the steep steps of the old city hall building. Others crowded around to have cellphone pictures taken with her.

The National Front mayor here, Steeve Briois, is a favorite of Ms. Le Pen’s. “France is no longer France,” Mr. Briois said in his speech in the council chambers on Friday — the same line Mr. Trump used after the terrorist attack in Nice in July.

Mr. Briois said later he was aware that Mr. Trump had spoken those words, and he agreed with them.

“There is the same desire to change politics in France,” Mr. Briois said. As in the United States, he added, “a lot of French are victims of globalization and immigration.”

“So, we’ve got to change our politics,” he said. “And the only one who can do it is Marine Le Pen.”

Reporting was contributed by Christopher Schuetze from Amsterdam, Gaia Pianigiani from Rome, Alison Smale from Berlin, Daphne Angles from Paris, and Bálint Bárdi from Budapest.

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## Vergennes

*France's Emmanuel Macron declares presidency bid*







*France's former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron says he is to join the race for the presidency.*


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37994372


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## Vergennes

*Le Pen opens campaign HQ (up the road from the Elysée)*







*Marine Le Pen opened her party headquarters on Wednesday just down the road from the Elysée palace, choosing a rose as her party's new logo. 

http://www.thelocal.fr/20161116/le-pen-opens-campaign-hq-up-the-road-from-the-elyse
*


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## Deliorman

Who is supposed to deport all the monkeys and sand niggers out + declare a war on Turkey other than Le Pen?


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## vostok




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## Vergennes

Blue Marlin said:


> yeah sarkozy and trump, they will grab the world by the pu$$y



Well,we will know this today !
Today is the first round of the Republican primary,the last polling stations will be closed at 7pm (french hour) and we would know the results later in the night.
I voted this morning,and interestingly there was a big queue,there were far more people than when I voted during the regional elections.

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## vostok

Vergennes said:


> Well,we will know this today !
> Today is the first round of the Republican primary,the last polling stations will be closed at 7pm (french hour) and we would know the results later in the night.
> I voted this morning,and interestingly there was a big queue,there were far more people than when I voted during the regional elections.


I always thought that Sarkozy is same faceless manager, as Hollande. In the end of his term Sarkozy deserved general contempt. Am I right?
@Vergennes What can you say?

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## Vergennes

vostok said:


> I always thought that Sarkozy is same faceless manager, as Hollande. In the end of his term Sarkozy deserved general contempt. Am I right?



Sarkozy when took office had to face two major economical crisis,and had to manage a France with high deficits,rising debts,poverty,unemployment etc,of course this played in 2012. Sarkozy might not be perfect,but he had the authority,something the clown Hollande lack.

@Blue Marlin

The first results are coming. The votes of 2912 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *42,8%*,followed by Juppé at* 26%* and Sarkozy at *24,4%*,of course this is just the begining !





-
New results :

The votes of 4219 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,3%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,2%* and Sarkozy at *23,7%*.

Bruno Le Maire at *2,9%*.
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,2%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
-
New results :

The votes of 5496 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,6%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,7%* and Sarkozy at *22,9%*.

Bruno Le Maire at *2,8%*.
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,3%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
-
New results :

The votes of 7365 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,7%*,followed by Juppé at* 27,8%* and Sarkozy at *21,7%*.

Bruno Le Maire at *2,6%*.
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,5%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.


@AUz

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> Sarkozy when took office had to face two major economical crisis,and had to manage a France with high deficits,rising debts,poverty,unemployment etc,of course this played in 2012. Sarkozy might not be perfect,but he had the authority,something the clown Hollande lack.
> 
> @Blue Marlin
> 
> The first results are coming. The votes of 2912 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *42,8%*,followed by Juppé at* 26%* and Sarkozy at *24,4%*,of course this is just the begining !
> 
> View attachment 353876
> 
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 4219 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,3%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,2%* and Sarkozy at *23,7%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,9%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,2%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 5496 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,6%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,7%* and Sarkozy at *22,9%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,8%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,3%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 7365 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,7%*,followed by Juppé at* 27,8%* and Sarkozy at *21,7%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,6%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,5%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> 
> 
> @AUz


whos the guy with the most votes? is he a socialist or capitalist, is he left or right wing?


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## AUz

Vergennes said:


> Sarkozy when took office had to face two major economical crisis,and had to manage a France with high deficits,rising debts,poverty,unemployment etc,of course this played in 2012. Sarkozy might not be perfect,but he had the authority,something the clown Hollande lack.
> 
> @Blue Marlin
> 
> The first results are coming. The votes of 2912 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *42,8%*,followed by Juppé at* 26%* and Sarkozy at *24,4%*,of course this is just the begining !
> 
> View attachment 353876
> 
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 4219 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,3%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,2%* and Sarkozy at *23,7%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,9%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,2%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 5496 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,6%*,followed by Juppé at* 26,7%* and Sarkozy at *22,9%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,8%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,3%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> -
> New results :
> 
> The votes of 7365 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,7%*,followed by Juppé at* 27,8%* and Sarkozy at *21,7%*.
> 
> Bruno Le Maire at *2,6%*.
> Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,5%*.
> Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
> Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.
> 
> 
> @AUz



Don't know much about this Fillon guy and his stances on various issues pertaining to Muslims in France--but I am glad that Sarkozy piece of sh!t is getting trounced left and right! 

Fillon vs Le Pen it's gonna be, I guess? (I presume Fillon will get more Sarkozy votes than Juppe in second run)..



Blue Marlin said:


> whos the guy with the most votes? is he a socialist or capitalist, is he left or right wing?



Right wing...


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## Vergennes

Blue Marlin said:


> whos the guy with the most votes? is he a socialist or capitalist, is he left or right wing?



This is the center-right election,and the one with the most vote currently is François Fillon (I voted for him),former prime minister of Sarkozy.
He's labelled as the 'Tatcherian boy' because of his 'shock' and liberal project. Read some of his projects above. Post #17.

Polls and analysts said he would never make it to the secound round and will have at most 10-14%. They were wrong again.
Trump,Brexit... they were wrong,and are again wrong.



AUz said:


> Don't know much about this Fillon guy and his stances on various issues pertaining to Muslims in France--but I am glad that Sarkozy piece of sh!t is getting trounced left and right!
> 
> Fillon vs Le Pen it's gonna be, I guess? (I presume Fillon will get more Sarkozy votes than Juppe in second run)..
> 
> 
> 
> Right wing...



Well,we will see next week,there will be a debate thursday between the two first. Next sunday for the secound round. I think that many Sarkozy voters will vote for Fillon. Bruno Le Maire already stated his support for Fillon.
To be honest,I am surprised about Sarkozy,but a fact must be said : A lot of leftist voters went to vote against Sarkozy....
-
New results :

The votes of 7948 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *43,9%*,followed by Juppé at* 27,9%* and Sarkozy at *21,4%*.

Bruno Le Maire at *2,6%*.
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,5%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> This is the center-right election,and the one with the most vote currently is François Fillon (I voted for him),former prime minister of Sarkozy.
> He's labelled as the 'Tatcherian boy' because of his 'shock' and liberal project. Read some of his projects above. Post #17.
> 
> Polls and analysts said he would never make it to the secound round and will have at most 10-14%. They were wrong again.
> Trump,Brexit... they were wrong,and are again wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> Well,we will see next week,there will be a debate thursday between the two first. Next sunday for the secound round.
> To be honest,I am surprised about Sarkozy,but a fact must be said : A lot of leftist voters went to vote against Sarkozy....


what about his mirgant policy? and what about taxes are they going up? actually whats the tax rate if you earn lets say 60k euro. and do you lot have something like nhs? and whats the vat rate over there.

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## Vergennes

Blue Marlin said:


> what about his mirgant policy?



About immigration ;

He wants to be written in the constitution that immigration only depends to our capacities of welcoming people.
He wants to reduce it and make the parliament vote each years quotas.
He wants to toughen family reunification.
He wants immigrants to get benefits only after they lived 2 years in our country. (Not automatically).
He wants to deport foreigners that have been sentenced by the justice.
He wants to cut the free healthcare for immigrants only to urgent cases.
He wants to reduce the time asylum demands are investigated from about 2 years to 6 months.
He wants to keep immigrants in special centers the time of their demands and deported if they are refused.
He wants to reinforce Schengen border controls.
He wants to suspend countries who do not respect their parts in Schengen.
He wants to make it easier to put border controls back.

Among other things...



> and what about taxes are they going up?



About any taxes,his goal is to make our groups more competitive and reduce the labor cost.

€40Bn of tax cuts for businesses and labor reduction costs.
€10Bn tax cut for households,targeting the families and middle classes.
V.A.T will increase by 2 points to 22%,but will only councern imported products,so that the Made in France is privilegied.



> actually whats the tax rate if you earn lets say 60k euro. and do you lot have something like nhs? and whats the vat rate over there.



Everything you need to know about France's healthcare system.

http://about-france.com/health-care.htm
-
New results :

The votes of 8400 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *44%*,followed by Juppé at* 28,1%* and Sarkozy at *21,1%*.

Bruno Le Maire at *2,5%*.
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,5%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,4%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.

-
Sarkozy announced his support for Fillon in the secound round.

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## Vergennes

New results :

The votes of 9855 polling stations (out of 10.228) were counted and Fillon comes first at *44,1%*,followed by Juppé at* 28,5%* and Sarkozy at *20,6%*.

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet at* 2,6%*.
Bruno Le Maire at *2,4%*.
Jean Frédéric Poisson at* 1,5%*.
Jean François Copé at *0,3%*.

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## Vergennes

*Fillon wins French rightwing presidential primary *

*The conservative François Fillon will be France's right wing presidential candidate in next year's election after beating rival Alain Juppé handsomely in Sunday's primary run-off vote.*

http://www.thelocal.fr/20161127/fillon-set-win-rightwing-primary-runoff-initial-results-show*
*


LA se Karachi said:


> Wow. I expected him to win, but not by this margin. Polls were showing roughly a 55-45% split in the runoff. But it seems that he's won the runoff with more than 65% of the vote. A very impressive victory indeed.



Polls weren't that innacurate for the second round,giving Fillon a victory of about 61-65% against Juppé. This primary was very important,because the winner could well be the next French president. The winner of this primary is planned to run against Marine Le Pen in the second round of the coming Presidential elections,and eventually beat her. 
-
A great victory indeed.





-
He came first in the majority of french departements. 





-

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## Desertfalcon

Vergennes said:


> *Fillon wins French rightwing presidential primary *
> 
> *The conservative François Fillon will be France's right wing presidential candidate in next year's election after beating rival Alain Juppé handsomely in Sunday's primary run-off vote.*



As I mentioned in your other thread, personally, I would have voted for Fillon if I were French but honestly, I will not be the least surprised if Marine Le Pen wins the final, no matter what the polls say. The problem with the Républicains Party of France is similar to the Republican Party of America; both have become too entrenched into the _"establishment"_, too tied to special interests and corporate interests, too detached from everyday sorts of people.


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## Vergennes

Desertfalcon said:


> As I mentioned in your other thread, personally, I would have voted for Fillon if I were French but honestly, I will not be the least surprised if Marine Le Pen wins the final, no matter what the polls say. The problem with the Républicains Party of France is similar to the Republican Party of America; both have become too entrenched into the _"establishment"_, too tied to special interests and corporate interests, too detached from everyday sorts of people.



I think that Fillon's election is good,he's serious,has a strong project (built with thousands of french all over the country),and isn't really part of a 'group' in the party,he's a lone wolf.
It was time for the french right to get rid of the Sarkozysm,and the Chiracism. (Represented by Juppé.) This will be only good. The National Front also recognized that Fillon is the most dangerous to them. (Many of NF voters could vote for him because of his positions on identity,family,immigration and others.)
-
I doubt about Le Pen,no way all other voters,will choose her,more people will vote in the second round just to block Le Pen and her party's election.
In the last regional elections,the National Front came first in 6 out of 13 regions,more people went to vote,only to block them,and they ended winning none. (Marine Le Pen loosing in the Hauts-De-France). Like they ended winning no departements' presidency. France is turning right,not necessarily far right.

-
@Desertfalcon Not to add that they do not really have a real project,a part from immigration and getting out of the EU,we don't hear much about the rest.
They do not have any clear economic policy,split between those wanting a liberal economy and others a protectionist and interventionist one. Not to talk about others unclear positions....


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## Desertfalcon

Vergennes said:


> I doubt about Le Pen,no way all other voters,will choose her,more people will vote in the second round just to block Le Pen and her party's election.
> In the last regional elections,the National Front came first in 6 out of 13 regions,more people went to vote,only to block them,and they ended winning none. (Marine Le Pen loosing in the Hauts-De-France). Like they ended winning no departements' presidency. France is turning right,not necessarily far right.



I don't know. I've heard this before BREXIT and in our recent elections. Almost every single pollster of note predicted a fairly easy Hillary Clinton win, buuuuuuut.........



> Not to add that they do not really have a real project,a part from immigration and getting out of the EU,we don't hear much about the rest.
> They do not have any clear economic policy,split between those wanting a liberal economy and others a protectionist and interventionist one. Not to talk about others unclear positions....



I hope you are right but again, many of Mr. Trump's positions were pretty implausible but in the end, people voted their anger and didn't care about the details.

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## Indus Pakistan

@Vergennes After Trumps victory in America it would be a disaster if Marie le Pen won in France. Just hope that does not happen.

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## Desert Fox

Kaptaan said:


> @Vergennes After Trumps victory in America it would be a disaster if Marie le Pen won in France. Just hope that does not happen.



Too bad for you  . I can almost sense the butt hurt from here. 

Let the French people decide their own fate. I'm sure they can do without an alien element like yourself advising them on who they should support.


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## Vergennes

Kaptaan said:


> @Vergennes After Trumps victory in America it would be a disaster if Marie le Pen won in France. Just hope that does not happen.



She will never win. Despite her growing popularity and her party's,she has little chances to win the presidency and have the assemblée nationale with a majority of FN members. 
People are afraid of the National Front,and they will always move their @sses to vote against her party in any elections,despite her trying to wash her father's and the party's reputation.
Reason why they only hold dozen of communes (out of +36.000),no departements (out of 101) and no regions presidency. (out of 13). Presidency is just a dream to be honest. @Desertfalcon @Desert Fox

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> She will never win. Despite her growing popularity and her party's,she has little chances to win the presidency and have the assemblée nationale with a majority of FN members.
> People are afraid of the National Front,and they will always move their @sses to vote against her party in any elections,despite her trying to wash her father's and the party's reputation.
> Reason why they only hold dozen of communes (out of +36.000),no departements (out of 101) and no regions presidency. (out of 13). Presidency is just a dream to be honest. @Desertfalcon @Desert Fox



Yes I share the same feeling. Marine Lepen has no chance to win but she may be a finalist.

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## Vergennes

Louiq XIV said:


> Yes I share the same feeling. Marine Lepen has no chance to win but she may be a finalist.



Second round : Fillon vs Le Pen --> "Republican Front" --> Fillon by a large margin ? 

I don't see any other candidates making it to the second round.... What do you think ?


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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> Second round : Fillon vs Le Pen --> "Republican Front" --> Fillon by a large margin ?
> 
> I don't see any other candidates making it to the second round.... What do you think ?



Yup that's what I think will happen. And in this scenario the Republican Front wins with 70% vs 30% (it was 82% for Chirac in 2002 but I think Marine will do better than her dad).

But another possibility is Fillon being very right conservative will scare more moderated conservative or people from the center. That coupled with a more unified left than expected (but that won't happen) and we could have a LePen vs Left 2nd round.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Polls weren't that innacurate for the second round,giving Fillon a victory of about 61-65% against Juppé.




Oh, well I just remember reading that some polls were showing that margin, shortly after the first round. But I hadn't kept up with them.



Vergennes said:


> This primary was very important,because the winner could well be the next French president.




Well, I wanted to ask you, do the Socialists have any candidates (other than Hollande) running in this election?



Vergennes said:


> I doubt about Le Pen,no way all other voters,will choose her,more people will vote in the second round just to block Le Pen and her party's election.





Desertfalcon said:


> I don't know. I've heard this before BREXIT and in our recent elections. Almost every single pollster of note predicted a fairly easy Hillary Clinton win, buuuuuuut.........
> 
> I hope you are right but again, many of Mr. Trump's positions were pretty implausible but in the end, people voted their anger and didn't care about the details.




I share the same thoughts as Desertfalcon. It might seem at this point that Le Pen has no chance of winning, but don't rule it out. Anti-establishment feelings and xenophobia are sweeping the globe, especially in the western world. And I will warn the French conservatives: don't allow the far-right (Le Pen) to take the mantle of the working class. Too much talk of belt-tightening and a lack of focus on working and middle classes could be fatal. People want to know that someone is looking out for their economic interests (no matter how fake or incompetent, it seems), and they might vote for her if they feel that she will.



Louiq XIV said:


> But another possibility is Fillon being very right conservative will scare more moderated conservative or people from the center.




You bring up another point that I think is very important. If too many left-wingers (and even moderates) stay home assuming that Fillon will win (or because they think he's too conservative to vote for), the unthinkable could happen. Something similar happened to Hillary Clinton in our election this month. Not enough people showed up to the polls because they didn't like her and assumed she would win. Because of this, Trump outperformed the polls and won. Le Pen could potentially do the same if you're not careful.

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## ultron

I think France will exit the EU next. The EU is not a nation and it won't last long under German dictatorship.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Well, I wanted to ask you, do the Socialists have any candidates (other than Hollande) running in this election?



Like the Republicans,they will organize a primary (votes in January) to designate the socialist candidate for 2017. The list isn't complete and candidates need some signatures from councillors and citizens member of the socialist party in order to participate,which many couldn't have.
Among the competitors,Montebourg and Hamon,former ministers of Hollande. Now the question is will Macron,Valls or Hollande participate ? The last is going to announce soon if he re-runs or abandon,but I doubt about the last one.



> I share the same thoughts as Desertfalcon. It might seem at this point that Le Pen has no chance of winning, but don't rule it out. Anti-establishment feelings and xenophobia are sweeping the globe, especially in the western world. And I will warn the French conservatives: don't allow the far-right (Le Pen) to take the mantle of the working class. Too much talk of belt-tightening and a lack of focus on working and middle classes could be fatal. People want to know that someone is looking out for their economic interests (no matter how fake or incompetent, it seems), and they might vote for her if they feel that she will.



I suspect the National Front to be some sort of conspiracy theory created in order to allow mainstream parties to always stay in power,lol.
With our current electoral system,they have no chances to ever gain power. Let's even suppose she wins,by the general surprise,that would be useless if she doesn't have a majority in the parliament. Many people believe that once she won,it's over,she will make France great again tomorrow......but when your parliament is full of Republicans or socialists.... (who will never support you) and you barely have 10 maximum... @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Kaptaan

BTW,the National Front is afraid that Fillon could steal many of their voters because of his various positions on different subjects (like immigration,identity,family,economy) who aren't that far from those of the NF,but the first one being more credible and more 'diplomatic' that the beloved Le Pen. They recognized that he was the most dangerous for them.




> You bring up another point that I think is very important. If too many left-wingers (and even moderates) stay home assuming that Fillon will win (or because they think he's too conservative to vote for), the unthinkable could happen. Something similar happened to Hillary Clinton in our election this month. Not enough people showed up to the polls because they didn't like her and assumed she would win. Because of this, Trump outperformed the polls and won. Le Pen could potentially do the same if you're not careful.



USA ≠ France.
There are always two rounds and no way Marine will make 50% or more in the first one. People always go to vote en masse against her and the NF in the second round,no matter who the other candidate is. That's why they perform well in the 1st rounds,but fail always in the 2nd.
Our history is full of such exemples.

BTW,polls were always showing Marine and her party first....

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## Taygibay

Adding to Vergennes' views, Fillon was the best ( read : to the Right enough ) candidate
to counter the FN. [_ T'avais dit que Sarko ferait pschitt / Told you about Sarko fading out _]

Of the Left, Valls or Macron could run but the latter is untainted by his participation in the
present govt whereas the former is about as low as _Flamby_, our dejected prez.
Montebourg can't well get electors from the Right wing due to his posturing and declarations.

In any case, remember 2002 when Chirac got less than 20% in the first run and JM Le Pen,
Marine's dad, leading a pre-revamp party with hardcore histrionics barely cleared Socialist
Jospin low 16.2% with a higher 16.9 %. The report in the second stage only got him 700K
votes and a 17,79%. Chirac got everyone else's votes and was elected with a whooping 82%
reminiscent of African despots' scores!

So yes, Marine is cleaner and better positioned but the likelihood of her besting a Fillon is nil
& although she could be a threat to another candidate, only the lowly loved one named for the
_Verenigde Provinciën _would present her with a clear path to the presidency which won't happen.

Most likely unless he makes his coming out in the interval is Fillon.

And great day all, Tay.

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## Desert Fox

Vergennes said:


> She will never win. Despite her growing popularity and her party's,she has little chances to win the presidency and have the assemblée nationale with a majority of FN members.
> People are afraid of the National Front,and they will always move their @sses to vote against her party in any elections,despite her trying to wash her father's and the party's reputation.
> Reason why they only hold dozen of communes (out of +36.000),no departements (out of 101) and no regions presidency. (out of 13). Presidency is just a dream to be honest. @Desertfalcon @Desert Fox


I think it's too soon to say but lets wait and see. Keep in mind people said the same thing about Trump but we know how that ended up 


*Marine Le Pen takes huge lead over Nicolas Sarkozy in French first round presidential election poll*​

Front National leader Marine Le Pen has taken a sizeable lead over Nicolas Sarkozy in a new French presidential election poll.

The far-right leader had 29 per cent of the vote when pitted against Les Républicains’ former president, who was eight points behind, and held a 15-point lead over the Parti de Gauche’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the poll released by Ipsos.

It was one of five scenarios for the first round of France's 2017 presidential elections on 23 April, although one that did not include Les Républicains’ Alain Juppé – who remains strong favourite to succeed Francois Hollande as leader.

While Mr Juppé holds leads of between 4 and 7 per cent in three other scenarios including him, the results are likely to add to growing fears that the rise of global populism could see Ms Le Pen secure a surprise victory in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s US election win.

Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

It came as leading French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy warned people had lost interest in whether politicians tell the truth, in a development he said could set the Front National on course to occupy the Élysée Palace.

“If Trump is possible, then everything is possible. Nothing, from now on, is unimaginable,” Mr Lévy told _The Telegraph. _

“As for Le Pen it is unlikely that she wins but it is possible, and that is partly because the people have lost interest in policy, instead focusing on personality.

“The people listen less and less to policy and they even seem less concerned about whether the candidates are telling the truth or not.

“They are more interested in the performance, in the theatrical quality of what is said than whether it is true. And as we know, a fascist can put on a very successful performance.”

The latest polls emerged as French conservatives voted in primaries on Sunday to choose their presidential nominee to face Front National candidate Ms Le Pen. 

Seven candidates are competing for their position in the primaries and a second vote will be held next week to decide between the two frontrunners. 


Share
Fullscreen
Marine Le Pen claims no difference between her policies and Ukip
Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.

Second round opinion polls have consistenly given Mr Juppé a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.

*Read more*

Marine Le Pen could win the 2017 French presidential election
Emmanuel Macron launches bid for French presidency
UN and France tell Trump he must respect 'irreversible' climate deal
Le Pen says trio with Trump and Putin 'would be good for world peace'
It came as leading French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy warned people had lost interest in whether politicians tell the truth, in a development he said could set the Front National on course to occupy the Élysée Palace.

“If Trump is possible, then everything is possible. Nothing, from now on, is unimaginable,” Mr Lévy told _The Telegraph. _

“As for Le Pen it is unlikely that she wins but it is possible, and that is partly because the people have lost interest in policy, instead focusing on personality.

“The people listen less and less to policy and they even seem less concerned about whether the candidates are telling the truth or not.

“They are more interested in the performance, in the theatrical quality of what is said than whether it is true. And as we know, a fascist can put on a very successful performance.”

The latest polls emerged as French conservatives voted in primaries on Sunday to choose their presidential nominee to face Front National candidate Ms Le Pen. 

Seven candidates are competing for their position in the primaries and a second vote will be held next week to decide between the two frontrunners. 
 
The three leading candidates are former president Mr Sarkozy and former prime ministers Francois Fillon and Alain Juppé - with many non-Republican voters hoping Mr Juppé wins as he has the best chance of beating Ms Le Pen.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said a Le Pen win next year could be “possible” and has warned of the danger of electing a far-right president, with many expecting Ms Le Pen to face a candidate from the centre-right if she makes it to the second round, given the current unpopularity of the ruling Socialist party.

Ms Le Pen has led the far-right Front National since 2011, when she succeeded her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s founder.

Since taking over the party, Ms Le Pen has made efforts to distance herself from her father’s openly antisemitic views, who has been convicted repeatedly for hate speech and contesting crimes against humanity, including describing gas chambers used to kill Jews in the Holocaust as a “detail” of history.

However, critics have branded Ms Le Pen a “fascist” and accused her of exploiting growing anti-immigration sentiment. 

The 48-year-old appeared on the BBC’s _Andrew Marr Show _on Remembrance Sunday, causing a crowd of Unite Against Fascism protesters to gather outside the BBC building.

Jeremy Corbyn, who also appeared on the show, told Marr: “She uses this populism against minorities in order to get herself elected. 

“The reality is she does not have an economic answer to the problems faced by the left behind communities in France any more than Ukip has an economic answer to the left behind communities in Britain.

“It’s only communities coming together with public investment that can deal with the fundamental economic injustices that are getting worse not better in Europe.”

In 2012, Ms Le Pen came third in the first round of the French presidential race with 17.9 per cent of the vote, behind Mr Sarkozy with 27.18 per cent and eventual winner Mr Hollande with 28.63 per cent.


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## Vergennes

Desert Fox said:


> Nicolas Sarkozy



Sarkozy is part of history as he lost the Republican primary. Fillon is being given a greater lead in the coming election in different polls with 28 to 31% and Marine Le Pen with 23 to 25%. He would win by a large margin in the second one.

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## Taygibay

Desert Fox said:


> I think it's too soon to say but lets wait and see. Keep in mind people said the same thing about Trump but we know how that ended up



France is not America, man! You need 50% + 1 to win
which Trump didn't get and Marine will not.
If she scored even 30% on the 2nd run, it would be a big surprise.

Good day to you, Tay.

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## Desert Fox

Taygibay said:


> France is not America, man! You need 50% + 1 to win
> which Trump didn't get and Marine will not.
> If she scored even 30% on the 2nd run, it would be a big surprise.
> 
> Good day to you, Tay.



True. But let's wait and see.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Like the Republicans,they will organize a primary (votes in January) to designate the socialist candidate for 2017. The list isn't complete and candidates need some signatures from councillors and citizens member of the socialist party in order to participate,which many couldn't have.
> 
> Among the competitors,Montebourg and Hamon,former ministers of Hollande. Now the question is will Macron,Valls or Hollande participate ? The last is going to announce soon if he re-runs or abandon,but I doubt about the last one.




I sure hope that someone other than Hollande runs for the Socialists.



Vergennes said:


> I suspect the National Front to be some sort of conspiracy theory created in order to allow mainstream parties to always stay in power,lol.




Do they help them?



Vergennes said:


> With our current electoral system,they have no chances to ever gain power. Let's even suppose she wins,by the general surprise,that would be useless if she doesn't have a majority in the parliament. Many people believe that once she won,it's over,she will make France great again tomorrow......but when your parliament is full of Republicans or socialists.... (who will never support you) and you barely have 10 maximum... @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Kaptaan




Well, I was only commenting on her chances of winning the Presidency. 

You do bring up a very good point about her power if she is elected. She won't have a majority there (or anything close it), unlike Trump. Though it will be interesting to see if the National Front can pick up some seats, however small their total might be.



Vergennes said:


> full of Republicans




One thing I do thank Sarkozy for is changing the name of the party to _The Republicans_. It's much easier to remember than the_ Union for a Popular Movement_ (especially for us Americans).



Vergennes said:


> BTW,the National Front is afraid that Fillon could steal many of their voters because of his various positions on different subjects (like immigration,identity,family,economy) who aren't that far from those of the NF,but the first one being more credible and more 'diplomatic' that the beloved Le Pen. They recognized that he was the most dangerous for them.




A fair point, and I agree with you in essence. However, his harder line on the welfare state, and lack of focus on the working class could hurt him a lot more than it has too. That's all I'm saying. I repeat: do not allow the far-right to take up the mantle of the working class.



Vergennes said:


> USA ≠ France.
> There are always two rounds and no way Marine will make 50% or more in the first one. People always go to vote en masse against her and the NF in the second round,no matter who the other candidate is. That's why they perform well in the 1st rounds,but fail always in the 2nd.
> Our history is full of such exemples.




I agree that France is not the US. However, I'm simply saying that you shouldn't rule anything out. I agree with you that it's quite unlikely at this point that Le Pen has a realistic chance to win. But things can change quicker than you think. The unthinkable can happen, no matter how unlikely, if a perfect storm of events take place. Don't give her a chance.

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## Vergennes

@waz @Kaptaan @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Desert Fox @LA se Karachi @mike2000 is back

Hollande just announced on french tv that he will not be candidate for 2017,so for his re-election. That's the first time ever that a President will not re-run for his re-election.

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## Desert Fox

@Vergennes correct me if I'm wrong but isn't he also the most unpopular President in French history? Maybe that has to do with his decision not to run for reelection?

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## Taygibay

You're spot on, Desert Fox, he had no choice really!

3% approval rating and he won't run? Qui l'eût cru?

 Tay.

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## Vergennes

Taygibay said:


> You're spot on, Desert Fox, he had no choice really!
> 
> 3% approval rating and he won't run? Qui l'eût cru?
> 
> Tay.



Pôv' chou.

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## Vergennes

Technogaianist said:


> So with the Left in the garbage dump



It's not. There's Gérard Filoche left,candidate in the socialist primary.

Under his rule,being drunk would be mandatory. He'll have my vote. He is also leading in the polls.
The most powerful and influential lobbies in France (The drunkards of France + The united bistrots of France) already stated their support for him.

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## Desertfalcon

Taygibay said:


> You need 50% + 1 to win



So what happens if no one gets to 50%? Does the French parliament get to decide?

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## Fenrir

Vergennes said:


> It's not. There's Gérard Filoche left,candidate in the socialist primary.
> 
> Under his rule,being drunk would be mandatory. He'll have my vote and is leading in the polls.
> The most powerful and influential lobbies in France (The drunkards of France + The united bistrots of France) already stated their support for him.
> 
> View attachment 357129



I already like him. Care to launder a ballot for me so I can vote for him too?

...

P.S. everyone: I am the mod of both the Europe & Russia and Americas sections of PDF, so if you have any concerns or issues or problems, let me know. I'm here to serve you (reported posts will be promptly reviewed and any tag alerts responded to as quickly as possible) and if not I'll be trolling away somewhere else on PDF. Feel free to call upon me when you need my help.

Most of you already know I'm pretty easy going, but I'm here just incase things get wild or off-track.

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## waz

Vergennes said:


> @waz @Kaptaan @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @Desert Fox @LA se Karachi @mike2000 is back
> 
> Hollande just announced on french tv that he will not be candidate for 2017,so for his re-election. That's the first time ever that a President will not re-run for his re-election.



Lol, how surprising.

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## Vergennes

Desertfalcon said:


> So what happens if no one gets to 50%? Does the French parliament get to decide?



When no one gets 50%,there's a second run-off between the first and second candidates,and the french people are called to vote a second time. 



Technogaianist said:


> I already like him. Care to launder a ballot for me so I can vote for him too?
> 
> ...
> 
> P.S. everyone: I am the mod of both the Europe & Russia and Americas sections of PDF, so if you have any concerns or issues or problems, let me know. I'm here to serve you (reported posts will be promptly reviewed and any tag alerts responded to as quickly as possible) and if not I'll be trolling away somewhere else on PDF. Feel free to call upon me when you need my help.
> 
> Most of you already know I'm pretty easy going, but I'm here just incase things get wild or off-track.



I didn't know you were a mod ! Congratulations. The european section is pretty safe,thank the lord you didn't get the south asian section. 



waz said:


> Lol, how surprising.



He fled without fighting because he knew it would be an humiliating defeat. Well,would he be even worse than Copé and his 0,3% ? Lol.

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## LA se Karachi

*  French election 2017: meet the candidates  *


To the surprise of many, François Fillon has won a landslide victory to become the right-wing candidate for France’s 2017 presidential election. He won the first round of the republican primary with more than 44% of the vote. He then went on to beat former front runner Alain Juppé in the second round by a resounding margin.






Fillon has been confirmed as the Republican candidate. EPA

The polls failed to see it coming, which only adds to the growing list of mistakes made in the past few months by the diviners of electoral results. It seems that polls are no longer able to predict, even within a reasonable margin of error, how much voters are ready to back their candidates.

Fillon represents the interests of the Catholic middle classes, concerned about advances in gay rights and the interests of big business, as an adamant defender of the free market and an advocate for a minimal state. A former minister under Jacques Chirac and prime minister under Sarkozy, Fillon is firmly enshrined in the establishment.

The socialists are in dire situation. The outgoing president, François Hollande, has decided not to run for re-election. Surely his abysmal popularity ratings, descending to an all time low of 4% approval, had a part to play in his withdrawal. Had he ran, he would have been the only potential candidate predicted to lose if he were to face the far right’s Marine Le Pen in the second round of the election.

The current prime minister, Manuel Valls, fares little better. If Valls wins the nomination of the left-wing primary in January, he is predicted to come dangerously close to losing the second round against Le Pen.

That could become irrelevant if the socialists fail to even make it to the second round of the election – as happened in 2002. If the contest was then one of right versus extreme right, Fillon would be more likely to emerge victorious as left-wing voters would opt for him over Le Pen. But if Le Pen faces a candidate from the left, it is doubtful that a majority of right-wing voters would return the favour and vote for the left.





Marine Le Pen is hoping to make it to the second round. EPA

If the independent socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, another anti-establishment candidate, does slightly better in the first round of the election than the 11% of the vote he is credited with, he could overtake Fillon and face Le Pen in the second round. France would then have to choose between a former Trotskyist and the leader of the extreme right. A Marxist president, however unlikely, would be the truly unthinkable result of a surreal election.

*Macron on the march*
But the challenge could equally come from the centre left. Emmanuel Macron has been polling extremely well – some even put him in second place behind Le Pen. Macron was, until recently, Hollande’s finance minister but resigned to strike out alone as an independent presidential candidate at the head of his own political movement. He is both a member of the establishment and an upstart.

Macron could gather votes from the socially-progressive centrists for whom Fillon is too conservative, and from disappointed socialist voters who would not vote (again) for Hollande. Both would compete for the economically liberal right, as their economic programmes are difficult to distinguish at this stage.





Macron launches his En Marche campaign. EPA/Christoph Petit Tisson.

But against Le Pen, Macron will be perceived as a candidate of the establishment, and recent anti-establishment votes around the world cast a long shadow over this possibility. A Macron-Le Pen second round would resemble the recent US election, where a centre-left candidate with strong finance ties struggled to compete against the rhetoric of a populist leader.

If the second round of the presidential election in May 2017 is a contest between left and right, there is a real possibility that the next president of France will be the head of a party that was once openly in admiration of Hitler. Many argue that Le Pen has since purged the Front National of its most undesirable elements, but the nationalist, protectionist, and mythico-religious roots of the party are largely intact. The ideals are clear, if contradictory. The plan is to make France great again, a militarily powerful, white, Catholic nation that uses French francs and tolerates no challenge to its secularist republic, either from European bureaucrats or from Muslim women wearing veils.

The polls failed to see Fillon coming and it is at least conceivable that Le Pen will do much better in the election than they predict. We’ve seen that the rules of the game can change. Recent events in Britain and the US are proof that it is perfectly possible.
_
http://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-meet-the-candidates-69436_

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## Louiq XIV

LA se Karachi said:


> *  French election 2017: meet the candidates*
> _http://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-meet-the-candidates-69436_




A rather good analysis imho except that part...

"If the independent socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, another anti-establishment candidate, does slightly better in the first round of the election than the 11% of the vote he is credited with, he could overtake Fillon and face Le Pen in the second round. France would then have to choose between a former Trotskyist and the leader of the extreme right. A Marxist president, however unlikely, would be the truly unthinkable result of a surreal election."

... wich is pure Sci-Fi.

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## Taygibay

If Mélenchon gets 12% or more, I'll stop cheese for a month;
if he makes it to the second turn, I'll go a month without wine!

But as my dad used to say, you can safely bet your virility against
"un cent de melons" ( literally a hundred cantaloupes ) that he won't be _président_.

Mélenchon vs Marine ... pauvre France,  Tay.

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## ahojunk

| Mon Dec 5, 2016 | 7:42pm EST | Reuters
*French PM Valls launches presidential bid, quits government*





_French Prime Minister Manuel Valls (R) holds hands with his wife Anne Gravoin (L) at a news conference where he announced that he is a candidate for next year's French presidential election, at the town hall in Evry, near Paris, France, December 5, 2016.REUTERS/Christian Hartmann_

By Christian Hartmann | EVRY, FRANCE


French Prime Minister Manuel Valls declared on Monday that he would seek the Socialist Party's nomination for next year's presidential election and said he was quitting the government to focus on campaigning.

Although opinion polls bill Valls as the favorite for the Socialists' ticket, they also forecast that neither he nor any other left-wing candidate will win the election, rather that conservative candidate Francois Fillon will beat far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in a run-off.

"We're told the left does not stand a chance, but nothing's set in stone," Valls said to applause from supporters in his fiefdom of Evry, the gritty southern suburb of Paris where he was mayor for over a decade.

"I want us to lead the left to victory!" the 54-year-old said, urging his much-divided camp to unite.

The path was cleared for Valls to enter the race last week when deeply unpopular President Francois Hollande announced he would be the first leader since France's Fifth Republic was created in 1958 not to seek a second mandate.

Valls, 54, is a law-and-order hardliner whose business-friendly economic stance face attack from his rivals from the traditional left of the party in campaigning ahead of the Socialist-led left-wing primaries in late January.

Valls will also have to extricate himself from Hollande's turbulent five years at the helm of the euro zone's number two economy if he is to persuade voters he is the best candidate to heal the party's rifts.

"We must unite: My candidacy is one of conciliation, of reconciliation," he said.

Valls said his resignation as prime minister would take effect on Tuesday.

Health Minister Marisol Touraine and Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve are seen as possible choices to replace him and lead what will effectively be a caretaker government.

Valls said reducing high unemployment would be his priority and he pledged to lower taxes for the poorest and for the middle-class, if elected. He also promised to protect France's social security system.

He faces a fight for the Socialist nomination. There are now eight candidates, with Valls' chief rival being former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, who is popular among the traditional left.

The failure of pollsters to forecast the outcome of the Les Republicains primary, won by Fillon, and the high number of undecided voters on the left mean the race is wide open.

In contrast to the left's divisions, the right has rallied behind Fillon, a 62-year-old former prime minister and admirer of late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher. He promises to slash public spending, cut half a million public sector jobs and overhaul social security.

"I want to fight, in this campaign, against the right," Valls said. "With its old recipes from the '80s..., it is proposing social regression."

Even if Valls wins the Socialist nomination, he will face stiff competition not only from Fillon and Le Pen but also from left-wing candidates who have made clear they will not take part in the primaries, including former economy minister Emmanuel Macron and firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.


(Additional reporting by Brian Love, Sudip Kar-Gupta, Myriam Rivet, Elizabeth Pineau in Paris; Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing by John Irish and Richard Lough)

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## -SINAN-

Left-wing presidential candidate wants an ‘independent France’ that can stand up to US, China, Russia and Turkey.

France must stand up for itself in the face of leaders including president-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, left-wing presidential candidate Manuel Valls said Monday.

“I am running for president because France has to bring all of its weight to bear in a world that is nothing like it was,” Valls said at a press conference in Évry, and listed the challenges France has faced in recent years: terrorism, climate change, the economic effects of globalization and the fracturing of Europe.

“I want an independent France that is unyielding in its values,” he said. He added that the country would have to stand its ground against the likes of Donald Trump in the United States, as well as Xi Jinping in China, Vladimir Putin in Russia, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey.

In positioning France to deal with a challenging new world order, the next president will need a depth of political experience that can’t be “invented, or improvised,” he said.

“I have this strength in me, this desire to serve my country,” Valls said. “I want to give everything, everything, for the country that has given me so much.”

This is not the first time the French prime minister has spoken out against Trump.

In October Valls came out in support of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, saying Trump was “rejected by the world.”

He compared the then U.S. presidential-hopeful to the far-right French Front National leader Marine Le Pen, during a meeting with his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau. “The only personality in France that is comparable to Trump is Marine Le Pen,” Valls said at the time.

http://www.politico.eu/article/manuel-valls-slams-donald-trump-france-america-president/



Vergennes said:


> Well,would he be even worse than Copé and his 0,3% ? Lol.



I heard Erdoğan scored more than him.

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## Vergennes

*Seven candidates compete in crowded French left primary*







© AFP fie photo | The High Authority for the French Left Primary has validated seven candidates on Saturday, Dec. 17, 2016, for the 2017 presidential race. 

*Seven candidates will run in next month's French left-wing primaries seeking to win the nomination for next year's presidential election, the organisers said on Saturday. *

http://www.france24.com/en/20161217-france-left-primary-candidates-presidential-election

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## Louiq XIV

The primaries of the right were a huge success now let's see what will be the left ones.


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## Vergennes

Louiq XIV said:


> The primaries of the right were a huge success now let's see what will be the left ones.



Doesn't seem to be the case for this one... Of course let's wait&see..

*Le problème de la primaire à gauche,c'est que tout le monde s'en fout...*

http://www.challenges.fr/election-p...uche-c-est-que-tout-le-monde-s-en-fout_446631



Taygibay said:


> If Mélenchon gets 12% or more, I'll stop cheese for a month;
> if he makes it to the second turn, I'll go a month without wine!
> 
> But as my dad used to say, you can safely bet your virility against
> "un cent de melons" ( literally a hundred cantaloupes ) that he won't be _président_.
> 
> Mélenchon vs Marine ... pauvre France,  Tay.



A real surrealistic election would be to see Poutou and Arthaud in the second turn. An anarchist and a crypto-marxist leninist,communist whatsoever she is. Even worse,they are capable of becoming co-presidents.

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## LA se Karachi

*Marine Le Pen establishes lead in first round French election poll*

_Presidential favourite François Fillon still expected to beat far-right leader by comfortable margin in second round_

Lucy Pasha-Robinson






Ms Le Pen recently announced a softened stance on Europe and the Euro in a suspected bid to gain more centre ground_ Getty_


Marine Le Pen has overtaken French presidential favourite François Fillon to become the frontrunner in the latest first round election poll. 

The Front National leader is now polling at 26.5 per cent, a lead of 1.5 per cent over former Conservative Prime Minister Fillon. 

*However, Mr Fillon is still expected to beat the far-right leader in a second round runoff in May, with polls giving him 64 per cent over Ms Le Pen’s 36 per cent. *

Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said that while the result was important, it was imperative not to exaggerate its significance at this stage. 

“You can get a one off poll to say anything you like, so it is important not to get ahead of ourselves, but Le Pen is obviously in a strong position. The primaries on the left are going to be crucial because there are polls now putting Emmanuel Macron ahead of both Fillon and Le Pen,” he told _The Independent_. 

Former economy minister Mr Macron has gathered momentum with his own transpartisan political party En Marche, polling consistently in third place and between 17 and 20 per cent in the first round poll, likely to be helped by Manuel Valls’ diminishing success with the ruling Parti Socialiste. 

However Mr Valls' rivals former ministers Arnaud Montebourg and Benoit Hamon are polling close behind him, which could be damaging for Ms Le Pen. 

The Ifop Fuducial poll for Paris Match showed Mr Fillon taking between 24 and 25 per cent of the vote in the first round, depending on the choice of Socialist candidate, who will be selected in the left-wing primaries on 22 and 29 January. 

*However, when pitted against Mr Macron in the runoff, Mr Fillon is set to lose to the newcomer by 48 per cent to 52 per cent. *

Political sociology Professor Stephen Fisher at the University of Oxford said the unknown identity of the socialist candidate could be skewing the polls in Ms Le Pen’s favour. 

“Two polls showing Marine Le Pen in the lead mean it is looking a little more likely she will do well, but the main thing to consider is the public still know her much better than her likely two competitors, in particular they don't know who the Parti Socialiste competitor will be at all,” he told _The Independent_. 

“So what you would expect in this situation is the less known candidates in this election will become better known, and their popularity should increase. Another thing you tend to see is a slight rally towards the government towards the end of the election, whereas mid-term, people tend to grumble through the polls - although obviously, as seen in the US, this is not always the case.”

Dr Joseph Downing, French politics expert and fellow at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), warned a small margin between any of the front runners would allow for outside factors to weigh heavily on the final result. 

“When you are dealing with such a small margin, a few percentage points can be quite trivial. In addition to further political developments, more terror attacks or an upsurge in the migrant crisis could have a big impact on the result, we don't know what the world will bring us before the second round,” he told _The Independent_. 

The poll, which had a margin of error of 1.3 per cent, was conducted between 3 and 5 January and was based on a sample of 1,860 people registered to vote.


_http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...h-election-poll-fran-ois-fillon-a7524056.html_


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## CBU-105

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/819579093847052289


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## CBU-105




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## Vergennes

@Taygibay @Louiq XIV What do you think about Macron ? Are we underestimating him ? Can he create the surprise by getting to the second turn ?

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> @Taygibay @Louiq XIV What do you think about Macron ? Are we underestimating him ? Can he create the surprise by getting to the second turn ?



Hi Vergennes,

Day after day his "en marche" is getting stronger. I now start to believe myself that he may indeed create the surprise.

He has a lot of visibility in the media at the moment and all flags are green for him but we still have more than 3 months before the first round.

After the result of the left primaries when all the candidates will start to compete together (nor fully started for now) we will see if Macron is solid or if he was just a "trend".

My opinion à 2 balles

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## Mage

Any possibility of Benoit Hamon may pull off a surprise? 

I've heard Macron is gaining popularity. What are his policies tho? 

I still think it will eventually come down to Le Pen and Fillon.


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Any possibility of Benoit Hamon may pull off a surprise?



Polls are more like showing a fight between Valls and Montebourg,but we cannot rule out Hamon or any other candidate pulling off a surprise. Fillon was an outsider and he became the favourite. We don't know how many people will vote nor if they are all leftists and if they are voting just to eliminate one candidate.



> I've heard Macron is gaining popularity. What are his policies tho?



*How Emmanuel Macron plans to change France*

http://www.thelocal.fr/20161116/what-emmanuel-macron-wants-for-france



> I still think it will eventually come down to Le Pen and Fillon.



It can be Le Pen-Fillon,like Macron-Le Pen or even Macron-Fillon,there will be months of campaign and anything can happen.

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> Polls are more like showing a fight between Valls and Montebourg,but we cannot rule out Hamon or any other candidate pulling off a surprise. Fillon was an outsider and he became the favourite. We don't know how many people will vote nor if they are all leftists and if they are voting just to eliminate one candidate.
> 
> 
> 
> *How Emmanuel Macron plans to change France*
> 
> http://www.thelocal.fr/20161116/what-emmanuel-macron-wants-for-france
> 
> 
> 
> It can be Le Pen-Fillon,like Macron-Le Pen or even Macron-Fillon,there will be months of campaign and anything can happen.


Quite informative, monsieur.

Based on the article, Macron sounds like a likeable guy.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Quite informative, monsieur.
> 
> Based on the article, Macron sounds like a likeable guy.



He seems to is,but as a minister did a pretty disastrous term with no major successful reforms (Maybe a part from the deregulation of French bus market.......) and who justified a tax hike of almost €50Bn for the households. (As Hollande's adviser) I wonder if people really forgot about this.

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## Vergennes

[*Left Primary*]

According to the first estimates and results coming from the first polling stations,Benoît Hamon is leading while Manuel Valls is 2nd and Arnaud Montebourg the 3rd.

@Philia
-
3.090 polling stations out of 7.520 ;

1- Benoît Hamon : 35.21%
2- Manuel Valls : 31,56%
3- Arnaud Montebourg : 18,78%
4- Vincent Peillon : 6,48%
5- François de Rugy : 3,49%
6- Sylvia Pinel : 2,1 %
7- Jean-Luc Bennahmias : 1,6 %

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## Mage

So, it will be between Valls and Hamon in the second round. And according to polls Valls likely to win. Considering how far of the polls regarding elections have been lately, I guess Hamon has decent chances to win. 

Valls would do terrible in the general election even if he wins the primary. Don't know about Hamon though. Although I would be surprised if any leftist/socialist candidate can manage to go to 2nd round of the general election.

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## Vergennes

Louiq XIV said:


> The primaries of the right were a huge success now let's see what will be the left ones.



About 1.6mn people went to vote in the Left primary's first round compared to 2.7mn in 2011.


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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> About 1.6mn people went to vote in the Left primary's first round compared to 2.7mn in 2011.


How many people voted in right's primaries?


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> How many people voted in right's primaries?



To compare,the 1st round of the Right's primary attracted 4,3mn voters and 4,4mn for the 2nd.

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## LA se Karachi

*Hamon and Valls face off in final French left-wing primary debate*

_Socialist presidential hopeful Benoît Hamon’s idealist vision for France squared off against calls for pragmatism from former prime minister Manuel Valls as the two men debated on national television Wednesday night._


_



_

Hamon and Valls discussed jobs, clean energy, and religion in the final debate of France’s left-wing primary, four days ahead of their highly anticipated run-off poll, and three months before French voters pick their next president.

Careful to strike a cordial tone, the Socialist Party rivals nevertheless highlighted their differences in a debate that, among many issues, scrutinised their knowledge of English.

Asked “Do you speak English?” by a viewer following the debate online, Hamon – a one-time education minister under Valls – confidently said “yes”, repeating his answer when one of the moderators asked “fluently?”

Valls then visibly struggled with the question, offering a longer but less convincing answer: “Very bad, but I speak well Spanish”.

*Hamon defends universal income*

Valls accused Hamon of peddling “dreams” to voters, especially when it came to the campaign pledge to introduce a universal basic income in France – a project that involves giving all citizens a basic wage regardless of employment or wealth, and which has been blasted as prohibitively expensive.

“There is a difference between dreams and illusions, and a credible political programme. That’s what interests me and that’s what the French are going to base their decisions on,” Valls said.

Hamon nevertheless defended his universal income proposal, insisting that its gradual introduction would cost only 45 billion euros in the first year, not the 400 billion euros per year some have estimated the cost at once it is fully implemented.





A man who has been compared to British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and leftist US firebrand Bernie Sanders, Hamon hit back by questioning Valls’s left-wing credentials.

“The dreams you helped finance, were for those who already owned a lot,” he said, accusing Valls of giving tax breaks to businesses when in office, while raising income taxes on middle-class workers.

Hamon also repeated promises to massively invest in environmentally-friendly agriculture and clean energy, as well as to renegotiate European budget deficit rules that restrict public spending. “We can compromise with bankers, not with nature,” Hamon declared.

*Back to burkinis*

There was more friction between the two on the subject of secularism.

Valls accused his in-party rival of voting against a 2010 law that banned wearing Muslim veils that fully cover the face in public. Hamon, surprised, reminded Valls he was not a member of parliament at that time and therefore did not vote on the measure.

Hamon then chastised Valls for publicly supporting right-wing mayors who banned so-called burkinis from public beaches last summer, a move that was later declared unconstitutional by French courts.








Hamon, who was kicked out of Valls's government in 2014 for differences on economic policy, won the first round of the party primary vote on Sunday with 36 percent of votes. Valls came in second with 31 percent support.

Regardless of who wins Sunday's run-off, polls suggest neither candidate stands much chance of getting past the first round of France's April-May presidential election after five years of unpopular rule by President François Hollande.

_http://www.france24.com/en/20170125...ary-debate-hamon-valls-dreams-socialist-party_

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## LA se Karachi

*French presidential hopeful Fillon rejects allegations of wife's 'fake job'*

*Former French prime minister François Fillon said on Thursday he would stick to his presidential bid, rejecting press allegations that his wife drew a salary as his assistant but never actually worked.*

*



*
*© Pierre Constant, AFP | Presidential hopeful François Fillon poses prior to a broadcast interview at French TV channel TF1, on January 26, 2017, just outside Paris. *


Fillon, who told TF1 television his two children also did work for him at some point when he was senator, added that his wife Penelope had worked for him since his first election in 1980.

Satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné reported this week that Penelope Fillon had been paid some 600,000 euros ($645,000) for many years of employment as a parliamentary assistant to Fillon, then as his replacement as a National Assembly lawmaker and also for work she did at a cultural journal.

The newspaper said its research had showed there was no evidence she had ever really worked.

Fillon said that was not true. His wife, he said, did work that included press reviews, proofreading his speeches and meeting people for him. During Thursday night's interview, he told TV host Gilles Bouleau he would "provide all the necessary proof" to the judge in charge of the investigation.

The shocking revelations prompted financial prosecutors on Wednesday to open a preliminary investigation into Penelope Fillon’s employment for “misuse of public funds”.

The scandal has thrown a monkey wrench into Fillon’s presidential campaign, which slammed the case as “completely unfounded”.

*‘I didn’t hire my wife, I married my aide’*

Unlike some countries, France does not prohibit members of its Senate or National Assembly from hiring relatives.

In 2014, French investigative website Mediapart revealed that at least 20 percent of MPs had immediate family members on their staff.

Up until then, lawmakers were not required to disclose payroll information. But a new rule passed by the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life that year made it a matter of public record.

The move outraged several politicians, who saw it as a witch hunt. “I didn’t hire my wife, I married my aide,” Claude Bartalone, president of the National Assembly, told Mediapart at the time.

*'Not my natural habitat'*

Yet even if Fillon is able to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that his wife worked for him, there is still the issue of how much she was compensated.

French law limits members of the National Assembly to a maximum of five staff members, who are paid from a monthly budget of €9,561.

But according to Le Canard Enchaîné, Penelope Fillon sometimes earned upwards of €7,000 per month – or almost the entire budgeted amount – during the 14 years she worked on and off as her husband’s parliamentary aide.

The huge sums of money contrast starkly with her image as a quiet mother of four and supportive wife.

"I'm just a country peasant, this is not my natural habitat," Welsh-born Penelope Fillon told Britain’s Sunday Telegraph of life in Paris after her husband was appointed prime minister in 2007.

If the allegations prove to be true, it could hurt Fillon’s chances at winning France’s presidential election in May.

He is currently the frontrunner in the race, with recent polls putting him ahead of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, independent candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far-left’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

_(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)


http://www.france24.com/en/20170126...s-wife-rejects-allegations-fake-job-elections_


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## rocketfish

nice very good


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## Vergennes

So,Hamon won the Socialist's primary for the presidential elections. Let's see some of his projects.

*French Socialist's remedy for France: Work 32 hours a week and tax robots*







*Tax robots, a 32-hour work week and €750 a month for all adults, can these radical leftist ideas work for France? *

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170126/work-32-hours-a-week-and-get-paid-35-french-socialist

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> So,Hamon won the Socialist's primary for the presidential elections. Let's see some of his projects.
> 
> *French Socialist's remedy for France: Work 32 hours a week and tax robots*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Tax robots, a 32-hour work week and €750 a month for all adults, can these radical leftist ideas work for France? *
> 
> http://www.thelocal.fr/20170126/work-32-hours-a-week-and-get-paid-35-french-socialist


did i just see that? tax robots?
like this type of robot?


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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> So,Hamon won the Socialist's primary for the presidential elections. Let's see some of his projects.
> 
> *French Socialist's remedy for France: Work 32 hours a week and tax robots*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Tax robots, a 32-hour work week and €750 a month for all adults, can these radical leftist ideas work for France? *
> 
> http://www.thelocal.fr/20170126/work-32-hours-a-week-and-get-paid-35-french-socialist




Do most people in France work approximately 35 hour weeks?


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## HannibalBarca

LA se Karachi said:


> Do most people in France work approximately 35 hour weeks?


yes but you've got 39 hours for a good part of the pop too



Blue Marlin said:


> did i just see that? tax robots?
> like this type of robot?


yes but even robots as in search engines and such, not only physical robots...

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## Mage

With Fillon getting into scandal it seems Le Pen will be the winner. She will surely get into the 2nd round. But at this point I doubt Fillon can defeat her. 

It would be interesting to see a contest between Le Pen and Macron, but I doubt it will happen.


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## Mage

Monsieur @Vergennes , can you tell me about the current state of the race?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...17-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-surge-polls/
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...st-hamon-quietly-rising-in-presidential-polls


Philia said:


> Any possibility of Benoit Hamon may pull off a surprise?
> 
> I've heard Macron is gaining popularity.



Looks like the ones I mentioned, are having some good time. 
Based on what I read online, Macron seems like a real possibility. His policies seem sensible too. Implementation is different tho. Hamon's policies look like a wet dream to me(Maybe that's because I'm from a poor country, but still they do look unrealistic to me) 

I hope to visit France(Paris and maybe Tours and Strasbourg depending on my wallet) first week of April. Have been saving like a miser to be able to make the trip with my

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## Vergennes

Hello.



Philia said:


> Monsieur @Vergennes , can you tell me about the current state of the race?




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...17-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-surge-polls/
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-02/french-socialist-hamon-quietly-rising-in-presidential-polls 
[/quote]

I wouldn't trust much polls,even more after the recent elections in France or anywhere else. But talking about them,Marine Le Pen is leading while Macron and Fillon are neck and neck,not so far behind. Fillon is trying to be destabilized because of his wife's affair and some elements within his party are already thinking about choosing another person to replace him in case he gives up. Many socialists and MPs are thinking about supporting Macron.



> Looks like the ones I mentioned, are having some good time.
> Based on what I read online, Macron seems like a real possibility. His policies seem sensible too. Implementation is different tho.



We'll talk about his policies when we will know all of them and that his project will be clear and complete. Even if he wins,this would be interesting to know how he is going to implemente them and with which majority in the parliament ? 




> Hamon's policies look like a wet dream to me(Maybe that's because I'm from a poor country, but still they do look unrealistic to me)



He was elected by socialist voters because of his ideas like an universal basic income for adults,(€750/months),the 32 working hours per weeks and many others,but about basic income for everyone,this is of course a wet dream. Such a measure would cost the country between €400 and €500Bn each years,how is he going to fund it ? 



> I hope to visit France(Paris and maybe Tours and Strasbourg depending on my wallet) first week of April. Have been saving like a miser to be able to make the trip with my



You are welcome here ! Tours and Strasbourg are two great cities,you're not going to regret it.

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> I wouldn't trust much polls,even more after the recent elections in France or anywhere else.


Indeed.


Vergennes said:


> Fillon is trying to be destabilized because of his wife's affair and some elements within his party are already thinking about choosing another person to replace him in case he gives up.


I don't think he is going to give up but the scandal hurt his chances hugely imo.


Vergennes said:


> We'll talk about his policies when we will know all of them and that his project will be clear and complete. Even if he wins,this would be interesting to know how he is going to implemente them and with which majority in the parliament ?


Yeah...he's like the media's favorite now. Media couldn't get Hillary win in USA, lets see about France. Macron is much more likable than Clinton imo. 



Vergennes said:


> He was elected by socialist voters because of his ideas like an universal basic income for adults,(€750/months),the 32 working hours per weeks and many others,but about basic income for everyone,this is of course a wet dream. Such a measure would cost the country between €400 and €500Bn each years,how is he going to fund it ?


French version of Jeremy Corbin 
Corbin very little chance in UK and I don't think Hamon has much of a chance in France either. Hamon is good at debates, I heard.



Vergennes said:


> You are welcome here ! Tours and Strasbourg are two great cities,you're not going to regret it.


Thanks. I really hope I can make it. 
I better travel as much as I can before 2018. If I leave after the Swedish election I doubt they will let my south Asian self back in again.

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## Louiq XIV

Philia said:


> I hope to visit France(Paris and maybe Tours and Strasbourg depending on my wallet) first week of April. Have been saving like a miser to be able to make the trip with my



Strasbourg is my city 

Things to see in Strasbourg ...






La petite France which is the part of the city where you can still find old houses.





La place Kleber named after a famous general of Napoleon.





The lovely Cathedral (one of the most beautiful Cathedral you'll be able to see in whole Europe)





The European parliament





The pont Vauban (a bridge built by a military engineer named Vauban) to protect the city from the river.





and many other things ...

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## Mage

Louiq XIV said:


> Strasbourg is my city
> 
> Things to see in Strasbourg ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> La petite France which is the part of the city where you can still find old houses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> La place Kleber named after a famous general of Napoleon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The lovely Cathedral (one of the most beautiful Cathedral you'll be able to see in whole Europe)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The European parliament
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The pont Vauban (a bridge built by a military engineer named Vauban) to protect the city from the river.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> and many other things ...


Don't tempt a poor guy like this


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## Louiq XIV

Philia said:


> Don't tempt a poor guy like this



Sorry but you may also want to buy a tomato or 2 from Delphine from my region Alsace (former Miss France)

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## Vergennes

@Philia Well,seems like _En Marche !_ is fully ready for the general elections as they will present 577 candidates which goal is to build a majority. 






The French voters have generally always given a majority in the parliament for the party whose candidate won the presidential election. Interesting times ahead.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @Philia Well,seems like _En Marche !_ is fully ready for the general elections as they will present 577 candidates which goal is to build a majority.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The French voters have generally always given a majority in the parliament for the party whose candidate won the presidential election. Interesting times ahead.



MAcronite who?


----------



## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> MAcronite who?



I don't know what you mean ?


----------



## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> I don't know what you mean ?


Macron+ ite.... Maintenant oui...


----------



## Vergennes

*'French first': This is what a 'President Marine Le Pen' has in mind for France*


http://www.thelocal.fr/20170210/mar...e-in-mind-for-france-presidency-marine-le-pen

*A look at what a 'President Emmanuel Macron' has in store for France*

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170217/this-is-what-emmanuel-macron-plans-for-france

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *'French first': This is what a 'President Marine Le Pen' has in mind for France*
> 
> 
> http://www.thelocal.fr/20170210/mar...e-in-mind-for-france-presidency-marine-le-pen
> 
> *A look at what a 'President Emmanuel Macron' has in store for France*
> 
> http://www.thelocal.fr/20170217/this-is-what-emmanuel-macron-plans-for-france


Encore un...desolant


----------



## Vergennes

*French far-left presidential hopeful Mélenchon unveils €270 billion spending plan*


http://www.france24.com/en/20170219...nchon-presents-270-billion-euro-spending-plan


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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> *French far-left presidential hopeful Mélenchon unveils €270 billion spending plan*
> 
> 
> http://www.france24.com/en/20170219...nchon-presents-270-billion-euro-spending-plan


This guy........why he's even trying? Btw the fact that this guy might get around 10% votes is quite laughable. 


Fillon is probably the best candidate in the current state. But his scandals are hurting him quite a bit. Which will probably give Le Pen an edge in the second round. 
I liked Macron too. But his possibility to go to the second round just took a yuge blow.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> This guy........why he's even trying? Btw the fact that this guy might get around 10% votes is quite laughable.
> 
> 
> Fillon is probably the best candidate in the current state. But his scandals are hurting him quite a bit. Which will probably give Le Pen an edge in the second round.
> I liked Macron too. But his possibility to go to the second round just took a yuge blow.



According to a recent poll,Marine Le Pen would lead the first round with 27% of the votes,while Fillon and Macron are neck and neck at 20%,but would loose in the second round whoever the candidate is. But what's interesting is that Le Pen's ratings for the secound round are increasing. Helped by Fillon's and Macron's struggles.

Poll results for the secound round ;

Fillon : 56% (-6 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 44% (+6)
Macron : 58 % (-8 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 42% (+8)

Far from the 82% of Chirac against her father.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Poll results for the secound round ;
> 
> Fillon : 56% (-6 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 44% (+6)
> Macron : 58 % (-8 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 42% (+8)
> 
> Far from the 82% of Chirac against her father.




I had a feeling that would happen... 

Be careful, France.


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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> I had a feeling that would happen...
> 
> Be careful, France.



Le Pen's election and rise would be the fault of the politicians,governments and their policies of the last 30-40 years. Marine,to attract voters from every sides of the society is trying to play the appeasment card,and is becoming far for civilized and 'presidentiable',than before,and for exemple,her father. BTW,the large majority of people who vote for her,don't vote because they are racists,nazis,because of immigration and islam,but more for social matters.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Le Pen's election and rise would be the fault of the politicians,governments and their policies of the last 30-40 years. Marine,to attract voters from every sides of the society is trying to play the appeasment card,and is becoming far for civilized and 'presidentiable',than before,and for exemple,her father. BTW,the large majority of people who vote for her,don't vote because they are racists,nazis,because of immigration and islam,but more for social matters.




I definitely understand. The wave of anti-establishmentarianism sweeping the western world is huge. She sounds like a more polite and amiable version of Trump to me. I think there's a real chance she could win, though her opponents are still favored against her.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Le Pen's election and rise would be the fault of the politicians,governments and their policies of the last 30-40 years. Marine,to attract voters from every sides of the society is trying to play the appeasment card,and is becoming far for civilized and 'presidentiable',than before,and for exemple,her father. BTW,the large majority of people who vote for her,don't vote because they are racists,nazis,because of immigration and islam,but more for social matters.





LA se Karachi said:


> I definitely understand. The wave of anti-establishmentarianism sweeping the western world is huge. She sounds like a more polite and amiable version of Trump to me. I think there's a real chance she could win, though her opponents are still favored against her.



Lepen will be in second round of this election, but she will not win it. the difference with Trump, is that , her party "Le front national" is not "officially" recognized by the majority of french as a "Real" party, even thou it's one ( it's seen/perceived like a far right baby of the right wing , les republicains).

So in the End if it's a Fillion/lepen or MAcron/ Lepen, it will be as before, everyone will vote for the less evil. Le front National could win, if the "lepen dynasty" change/removed ( but it could be the end of le FN too..) , at that moment it will perceived as a "true" party in the eys of french and not a familial biz.

For this party, this election could be their last hope to win, France is not in the same state as few years back, things begin to change, the workforce started to shift, and the "old" voters of that time, will be less next time. The young are taking thier places.

ps: Majority of voters in the right wings are retired/old, the young are more in the left wing or/and the far right.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Wrong. In Italy most voters of the far right are young people. Same counts for France. Several statistics made this clear. The establihsment failed to give young people chances, so why should young people vote for the Establishment?
> 
> Its a media hoax that old people favor far right. When you look at Germany its the old zombies who still grab on Merkel.
> 
> What we need is a complete dstruction of the liberal left and a victory for Marine lePen would be a great sucess for our future, not just France but all of Europe. So much has already changed for the better. The Establishment is in panic mode and now suddenly makes what the people demand. But thats not enough.



re-read me... bf saying anything...


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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> re-read me... bf saying anything...



How are relations between Tunisia and Italy btw? We hear so little wbout Tunisia in Italy but you are pretty close to us.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> How are relations between Tunisia and Italy btw? We hear so little wbout Tunisia in Italy but you are pretty close to us.


We hear little about Italy too. Good relation that's for sure.


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## Zibago

Louiq XIV said:


> Sorry but you may also want to buy a tomato or 2 from Delphine from my region Alsace (former Miss France)


Dem Aubergines ヘ(￣ω￣ヘ)

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> According to a recent poll,Marine Le Pen would lead the first round with 27% of the votes,while Fillon and Macron are neck and neck at 20%,but would loose in the second round whoever the candidate is. But what's interesting is that Le Pen's ratings for the secound round are increasing. Helped by Fillon's and Macron's struggles.
> 
> Poll results for the secound round ;
> 
> Fillon : 56% (-6 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 44% (+6)
> Macron : 58 % (-8 compared to 8 february) - Le Pen 42% (+8)
> 
> Far from the 82% of Chirac against her father.


Macron's problem is he needs both right-wing and left-wing votes to go to the second round. He has to count on moderate left wingers and moderate right wingers. Going to the second round would be tough with this combination. Most right wingers would go for Fillon and left wingers would go for Hamon or Melenchon. Although he seems to have a likeability factor going for him. And he seems to have higher chances to beat Mighty Le Pen in the second round. But I think he has less chances to go to the second round than Fillon(A bit like the Hillary/Bernie situation)

Fillon does look the the best fit to be the president to me but I think he will have a hard time against Le Pen in the second round. He's already struggling with Penelope gate

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## Mage

Hmm...Macron is still gaining on polls..............That's a surprise. He was neck to neck with Fillon days ago and now he's pulling ahead..

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## vostok

Marine Le Pen Declares War on Merkel

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## Nilgiri

vostok said:


> Marine Le Pen Declares War on Merkel



Haha, bravo!


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## Vergennes

@Philia @Nilgiri Fillon is in big trouble right now because of the Penelope affair and that he has been called by judges and could be charged. Many of his close supports have defected,even his spokesperson and campaign director (and it continues) more and more are calling him to give up fearing the right would loose the coming elections.
The UDI party (a center-right party) said they wouldn't support him anymore. Lot of phone calls between the Juppeists,Sarkozysts etc. The party is secretly planning a B plan. The names of Alain Juppé and François Baroin (a sarkozyst) are cited to take the place of François Fillon. Meanwhile,Fillon said he will not give up and called for a big demonstration to support him this sunday in Paris.

This campaign is getting interesting.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @Nilgiri Fillon is in big trouble right now because of the Penelope affair and that he has been called by judges and could be charged. Many of his close supports have defected,even his spokesperson and campaign director (and it continues) more and more are calling him to give up fearing the right would loose the coming elections.
> The UDI party (a center-right party) said they wouldn't support him anymore. Lot of phone calls between the Juppeists,Sarkozysts etc. The party is secretly planning a B plan. The names of Alain Juppé and François Baroin (a sarkozyst) are cited to take the place of François Fillon. Meanwhile,Fillon said he will not give up and called for a big demonstration to support him this sunday in Paris.
> 
> This campaign is getting interesting.




Wow. Things are indeed getting interesting. I never expected that scandal to have so much of an effect. However, his home was just raided by the police.

It would be incredible to see Fillon step down, as many in his party are calling for. Juppé could take the reins, but I wonder how many in his party would be upset if he did. He might be a tougher match-up for Macron, but perhaps an easier one for Le Pen.

If the Republicans want to change their candidate, they should do so soon. Less than two months remain until the first round...

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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @Nilgiri Fillon is in big trouble right now because of the Penelope affair and that he has been called by judges and could be charged. Many of his close supports have defected,even his spokesperson and campaign director (and it continues) more and more are calling him to give up fearing the right would loose the coming elections.
> The UDI party (a center-right party) said they wouldn't support him anymore. Lot of phone calls between the Juppeists,Sarkozysts etc. The party is secretly planning a B plan. The names of Alain Juppé and François Baroin (a sarkozyst) are cited to take the place of François Fillon. Meanwhile,Fillon said he will not give up and called for a big demonstration to support him this sunday in Paris.
> 
> This campaign is getting interesting.



I get that he so wants to win and that it's possible the scandal has been overblown etc.

But even with those two things in mind, I feel Fillon should look at bigger picture for his party and step aside. Creating this much polarisation in his support will not get him past the 1st round even.

It may already be too late I think...so maybe its better he continues and tries his best and let the Macron vs Le Pen final round happen. Hard to say.

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @Nilgiri Fillon is in big trouble right now because of the Penelope affair and that he has been called by judges and could be charged. Many of his close supports have defected,even his spokesperson and campaign director (and it continues) more and more are calling him to give up fearing the right would loose the coming elections.
> The UDI party (a center-right party) said they wouldn't support him anymore. Lot of phone calls between the Juppeists,Sarkozysts etc. The party is secretly planning a B plan. The names of Alain Juppé and François Baroin (a sarkozyst) are cited to take the place of François Fillon. Meanwhile,Fillon said he will not give up and called for a big demonstration to support him this sunday in Paris.
> 
> This campaign is getting interesting.


There is news that Juppe will replace Fillon........A change at this point...I wonder how good it will work.........Juppe lost to Fillon fair and square in the party primary. I doubt a republican candidate be it Fillon or Juppe could make it to the second round at this point unless there are fresh scandals on Macron.

And a poll says Macron overtook Le Pen
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-pen-in-france-as-juppe-looms-over-fillon-bid

Polls don't mean much though. 

How do you think Juppe will fare if he replaces Fillon? Fillon looked like a fit candidate to me. It's surprising what a minor scandal can do to a candidate in politics.

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## Nilgiri

Philia said:


> unless there are fresh scandals on Macron.



What were the scandals regarding Macron?

Sheesh why are there so many scandals on everyone. Sacre bleu!


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## Mage

Nilgiri said:


> What were the scandals regarding Macron?
> 
> Sheesh why are there so many scandals on everyone. Sacre bleu!


Afaik there is no major scandal on Macron yet. His remark about French occupation in Algeria was supposed to cause him some problems but it doesn't seem that way.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> There is news that Juppe will replace Fillon........A change at this point...I wonder how good it will work.........Juppe lost to Fillon fair and square in the party primary. I doubt a republican candidate be it Fillon or Juppe could make it to the second round at this point unless there are fresh scandals on Macron.



Juppé has no legetimacy as he lost badly the center-right primary,and add to that the fact that he only has beaten Sarkozy because of the hundred of thousands of leftist voters voting Juppé just to evict Sarkozy. That's the problem of open primaries. The sarkozysts will never accept to see Juppé taking Fillon's place nor the voters to see someone they didn't vote for.



> And a poll says Macron overtook Le Pen
> https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-pen-in-france-as-juppe-looms-over-fillon-bid
> 
> Polls don't mean much though.



Of course they don't. Juppé was at 40% whereas Fillon was at 10-15%. Hamon "was already out",even before the socialist primary campaign begun. So,everthing is possible I would say,as people don't like to get influenced by polls.



> How do you think Juppe will fare if he replaces Fillon? Fillon looked like a fit candidate to me. It's surprising what a minor scandal can do to a candidate in politics.



It's the prospect of being charged that hurts him. He always said he would give up if he was ever charged and was telling everywhere how clean he was compared to others. The 15th march,he would have to respond to judges and could be charged because of this affair.... this date is two days before the deadline for candidates to submit their applications. So,everything has to be fast if he finally gives up.



Nilgiri said:


> What were the scandals regarding Macron?
> 
> Sheesh why are there so many scandals on everyone. Sacre bleu!





Philia said:


> Afaik there is no major scandal on Macron yet. His remark about French occupation in Algeria was supposed to cause him some problems but it doesn't seem that way.



I tend to believe that the justice is being manipulated to hurt especially two candidates : Fillon and Le Pen. How do you think they have problems with the justice weeks before the first round ? In fact,it doesn't really hurt Marine,it strengthens her,as she would call it a conspiracy to hurt her and shows that the 'system' wants to kill her.

As for Macron,there have been irregularities and incoherences when declaring his wealth,assets etc.,but why isn't the justice investigating ?

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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> In fact,it doesn't really hurt Marine,it strengthens her,as she would call it a conspiracy to hurt her and shows that the 'system' wants to kill her.



Thats pretty Trump-like.



Vergennes said:


> As for Macron,there have been irregularities and incoherences when declaring his wealth,assets etc.,but why isn't the justice investigating ?



Ditto here too heh.

Everyone's learning the new political model pretty fast heh!

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## Louiq XIV

LA se Karachi said:


> It would be incredible to see Fillon step down, as many in his party are calling for. Juppé could take the reins, but I wonder how many in his party would be upset if he did.


At this stage what wants the party is irrelevant it is what want the French voters that matters.
If "Les Républicains" start another internal dispute that last more than a couple of weeks before replacing Fillon then they will loose.




Philia said:


> Afaik there is no major scandal on Macron yet. His remark about French occupation in Algeria was supposed to cause him some problems but it doesn't seem that way.


Some agree or disagree with what he said but he has the right to have an opinion (this thing called freedom of speech). Regarding Macron there is indeed something strange with his assets. That guy has earned 2.6 millions of €uros when he was a Rothschild banker and now has nothing (yes really nothing). He has to explain why he has sighlty more debts than assets having earned so much. There is something strange in this situation. Has a really spent 2.6 € millions in the last 5 years ? or has ... => where is the money.






Vergennes said:


> I tend to believe that the justice is being manipulated to hurt especially two candidates : Fillon and Le Pen. How do you think they have problems with the justice weeks before the first round ?


For the first time I strongly disagree with you @Vergennes. Of course Fillon like others have all the attention of everyone now (justice, media ...). No conspiracy just normal situation. If Fillon don't want to see his life scrutinized then he must not try to be elected president. His defense is ludicrous and very bad.

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## HannibalBarca

Louiq XIV said:


> At this stage what wants the party is irrelevant it is what want the French voters that matters.
> If "Les Républicains" start another internal dispute that last more than a couple of weeks before replacing Fillon then they will loose.
> 
> 
> 
> Some agree or disagree with what he said but he has the right to have an opinion (this thing called freedom of speech). Regarding Macron there is indeed something strange with his assets. That guy has earned 2.6 millions of €uros when he was a Rothschild banker and now has nothing (yes really nothing). He has to explain why he has sighlty more debts than assets having earned so much. There is something strange in this situation. Has a really spent 2.6 € millions in the last 5 years ? or has ... => where is the money.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For the first time I strongly disagree with you @Vergennes. Of course Fillon like others have all the attention of everyone now (justice, media ...). No conspiracy just normal situation. If Fillon don't want to see his life scrutinized then he must not try to be elected president. His defense is ludicrous and very bad.





Vergennes said:


> Juppé has no legetimacy as he lost badly the center-right primary,and add to that the fact that he only has beaten Sarkozy because of the hundred of thousands of leftist voters voting Juppé just to evict Sarkozy. That's the problem of open primaries. The sarkozysts will never accept to see Juppé taking Fillon's place nor the voters to see someone they didn't vote for.
> 
> 
> 
> Of course they don't. Juppé was at 40% whereas Fillon was at 10-15%. Hamon "was already out",even before the socialist primary campaign begun. So,everthing is possible I would say,as people don't like to get influenced by polls.
> 
> 
> 
> It's the prospect of being charged that hurts him. He always said he would give up if he was ever charged and was telling everywhere how clean he was compared to others. The 15th march,he would have to respond to judges and could be charged because of this affair.... this date is two days before the deadline for candidates to submit their applications. So,everything has to be fast if he finally gives up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I tend to believe that the justice is being manipulated to hurt especially two candidates : Fillon and Le Pen. How do you think they have problems with the justice weeks before the first round ? In fact,it doesn't really hurt Marine,it strengthens her,as she would call it a conspiracy to hurt her and shows that the 'system' wants to kill her.
> 
> As for Macron,there have been irregularities and incoherences when declaring his wealth,assets etc.,but why isn't the justice investigating ?



Seems few among you forgot that lepen's problems is not new... It's been almost a year. 
As for fillion case, nothing is fast, since the problem happened few months back, so ofc justice should do his job. It's not because it's the election, that we should let a thief go away... Just for the sake of it. 
As for Macron, the wealth thing has no proof... yet.

Some of you think that lepen's is not hurt by those cases, you may be right for her hardcore voters, but if les républicains couldn't find a way out, a part of them will go to lepen's, but with her justice case, this number of new voters could be less than expected, and it will hurt her in the second round.


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## LA se Karachi

Louiq XIV said:


> At this stage what wants the party is irrelevant it is what want the French voters that matters.
> If "Les Républicains" start another internal dispute that last more than a couple of weeks before replacing Fillon then they will loose.




Well, I do think they should make a decision on Fillon soon. Not much time is left before the first round.

It's interesting to see how things have changed. With Holland's unpopularity, The Republicans' candidate was seen as the favorite to become President, even before the primary. After the primary, polls consistently showed Fillon to be the front-runner as well.

Now, it seems that things have been turned upside-down. It is Fillon who looks like he may not make it to the second round, if polls are to be believed. However, with so many candidates in the race, and many stories still developing, anything can happen.



HannibalBarca said:


> Some of you think that lepen's is not hurt by those cases, you may be right for her hardcore voters, but if les républicains couldn't find a way out, a part of them will go to lepen's, but with her justice case, this number of new voters could be less than expected, and it will hurt her in the second round.




I agree. Both Le Pen and Macron could face trouble too, if their problems grow.



HannibalBarca said:


> For this party, this election could be their last hope to win, France is not in the same state as few years back, things begin to change, the workforce started to shift, and the "old" voters of that time, will be less next time. The young are taking thier places.
> 
> ps: Majority of voters in the right wings are retired/old, the young are more in the left wing or/and the far right.




Interesting, if true. Something similar is going on here in America. However, motivation matters and it will take longer than some people might think for those younger voters to become a large enough part of the electorate, and those older voters to become a small enough one to really see a change.


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## HannibalBarca




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## CBU-105




----------



## LA se Karachi

*French presidential candidate Francois Fillon faces preliminary charges over 'fake jobs' for wife and children*

_Mr Fillon has been accused of paying his wife, Penelope, for work she allegedly did not do_
_
_
French presidential candidate François Fillon has been handed preliminary charges in an investigation into a “fake jobs” scandal involving his wife and children.

The charges further damage the former Prime Minister’s dwindling chances of winning the two-round presidential election, taking place between 23 April and 7 May.

Mr Fillon was considered the favourite for the contest until the “Penelope gate” scandal over the payment of hundreds of thousands of euros to his wife broke in January.

The Les Républicains politician insists she was legitimately employed as his parliamentary assistant and carried out the work for which she was paid, but has been placed under formal investigation on suspicion of embezzling public funds, complicity in misappropriating funds, receiving the funds and not declaring assets fully.

The charges came as a surprise, coming a day earlier than Mr Fillon was due to answer a summons to explain his conduct before magistrates.

Under French law, being put under formal investigation means there is “serious or consistent evidence” that points to probable involvement of a suspect in a crime.

It is a step towards a trial, but a number of such investigations have been dropped without going to court in the past.

Mr Fillon originally said he would withdraw from the presidential race if formally charges were brought against him but has since gone back on his promise, refusing to step down while claiming the charges are politically motivated.

The 63-year-old decried a “political assassination” in a press conference last month, adding: “I will continue to the end because it is democracy that is under attack.”

During his campaign to be selected as the Les Républicains candidate, he had said: “Those who don't respect the laws of the republic should not be allowed to run.

“There's no point in talking about authority when one's not beyond reproach.”

Mr Fillon denies wrongdoing and says he will cooperate fully with investigators as his campaign continues, while relatives insist they did the work for which they were generously paid.

While it is legal in France for politicians to hire family members for legitimate jobs, the case against Mr Fillon hinges on whether parliamentary positions he gave to his wife Penelope, from Abergavenny in Wales, and two of their five children were real.

Mr Fillon’s refusal to step down has caused a deep rift within his centre-right party, causing several members to boycott his candidacy and high profile resignations from the campaign.

The scandal has obliterated his standing in polls, which currently predict a close-fought first round between far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centre-left independent candidate Emmanuel Macron.

Many surveys have predicted Mr Fillon will be knocked out in the first round of voting, with Mr Macron winning in the second and decisive ballot in May.

Ms Le Pen and some members of her National Front party are also embroiled in ongoing investigations, with the Front National leader refusing to appear before judges in a case concerning the employment of aides in the European Parliament.
_
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-wife-penelope-gate-children-eu-a7629491.html_


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## Nilgiri

LA se Karachi said:


> *French presidential candidate Francois Fillon faces preliminary charges over 'fake jobs' for wife and children*
> 
> _Mr Fillon has been accused of paying his wife, Penelope, for work she allegedly did not do_
> _
> _
> French presidential candidate François Fillon has been handed preliminary charges in an investigation into a “fake jobs” scandal involving his wife and children.
> 
> The charges further damage the former Prime Minister’s dwindling chances of winning the two-round presidential election, taking place between 23 April and 7 May.
> 
> Mr Fillon was considered the favourite for the contest until the “Penelope gate” scandal over the payment of hundreds of thousands of euros to his wife broke in January.
> 
> The Les Républicains politician insists she was legitimately employed as his parliamentary assistant and carried out the work for which she was paid, but has been placed under formal investigation on suspicion of embezzling public funds, complicity in misappropriating funds, receiving the funds and not declaring assets fully.
> 
> The charges came as a surprise, coming a day earlier than Mr Fillon was due to answer a summons to explain his conduct before magistrates.
> 
> Under French law, being put under formal investigation means there is “serious or consistent evidence” that points to probable involvement of a suspect in a crime.
> 
> It is a step towards a trial, but a number of such investigations have been dropped without going to court in the past.
> 
> Mr Fillon originally said he would withdraw from the presidential race if formally charges were brought against him but has since gone back on his promise, refusing to step down while claiming the charges are politically motivated.
> 
> The 63-year-old decried a “political assassination” in a press conference last month, adding: “I will continue to the end because it is democracy that is under attack.”
> 
> During his campaign to be selected as the Les Républicains candidate, he had said: “Those who don't respect the laws of the republic should not be allowed to run.
> 
> “There's no point in talking about authority when one's not beyond reproach.”
> 
> Mr Fillon denies wrongdoing and says he will cooperate fully with investigators as his campaign continues, while relatives insist they did the work for which they were generously paid.
> 
> While it is legal in France for politicians to hire family members for legitimate jobs, the case against Mr Fillon hinges on whether parliamentary positions he gave to his wife Penelope, from Abergavenny in Wales, and two of their five children were real.
> 
> Mr Fillon’s refusal to step down has caused a deep rift within his centre-right party, causing several members to boycott his candidacy and high profile resignations from the campaign.
> 
> The scandal has obliterated his standing in polls, which currently predict a close-fought first round between far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centre-left independent candidate Emmanuel Macron.
> 
> Many surveys have predicted Mr Fillon will be knocked out in the first round of voting, with Mr Macron winning in the second and decisive ballot in May.
> 
> Ms Le Pen and some members of her National Front party are also embroiled in ongoing investigations, with the Front National leader refusing to appear before judges in a case concerning the employment of aides in the European Parliament.
> _
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-wife-penelope-gate-children-eu-a7629491.html_



I dont see Fillon winning now (compared to whatever slim chance he had before when this stuff started). At least the French system will have no vote splitting phenomenon....final round is 1v1 ...I'm sure bush senior would have wanted that in 1992 hehe.

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## AUz

Nilgiri said:


> I dont see Fillon winning now (compared to whatever slim chance he had before when this stuff started). At least the French system will have no vote splitting phenomenon....final round is 1v1 ...I'm sure bush senior would have wanted that in 1992 hehe.



Oh boy...

Le Pen seems to be in charge now. If she wins and fulfill her promises...Europe will disintegrate again as France/UK pulls out of EU.

Fun times ahead

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## LA se Karachi

Nilgiri said:


> I dont see Fillon winning now (compared to whatever slim chance he had before when this stuff started).




Agreed. I don't see how he makes it to the second round, even if he isn't put on trial. He's been tainted far too much by this scandal. 

I think he should be replaced as the candidate for The Republicans. There's nothing to lose. Any candidate would have a better chance of winning, at this point. Such a switch may not get them into the second round. But why not try? There's no point in going down with the sinking ship that Fillon's candidacy has unexpectedly turned into. 



Nilgiri said:


> At least the French system will have no vote splitting phenomenon....final round is 1v1




Well, I prefer instant-runoff voting. It allows all choices to be evaluated fairly by the voters, and takes away the need for "strategic voting" that can skew elections. 



Nilgiri said:


> I'm sure bush senior would have wanted that in 1992 hehe.




Well, I still think Clinton would have won. There was a big desire for change in 1992 after so many Republican wins followed Johnson in 1964. 

However, you're definitely correct that the election would have been closer. Much closer.

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## Nilgiri

LA se Karachi said:


> Well, I still think Clinton would have won. There was a big desire for change in 1992 after so many Republican wins followed Johnson in 1964.
> 
> However, you're definitely correct that the election would have been closer. Much closer.



Yah im sure Clinton would have still won too....but Bush's chances would have increased to the point it became an actual contest. Perot took serious critical amounts of votes away from him in the end...for like next to no actual shot at the presidency.



LA se Karachi said:


> Well, I prefer instant-runoff voting. It allows all choices to be evaluated fairly by the voters, and takes away the need for "strategic voting" that can skew elections.



For sure. This prevents exactly what you said and also the most accurate system in the end. Does any country you know use this system btw (for actual direct public voting of head of govt/state...I know Australia does so for their lower house which is effectively about the same thing)?

If I had to guess I would say Switzerland (given they vote by cantons and there is rotation in their official leadership anyway)...but I am not sure.

IRV I believe will come to Ontario soon at municipal level.

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## Nilgiri

Kat said:


> Vote for Kat?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kat has good policies. 18 hour grace period for naps every day. That is all.



I like limited govt, so you have my vote


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## LA se Karachi

Nilgiri said:


> Yah im sure Clinton would have still won too....but Bush's chances would have increased to the point it became an actual contest. Perot took serious critical amounts of votes away from him in the end...for like next to no actual shot at the presidency.




True. 



Nilgiri said:


> For sure. This prevents exactly what you said and also the most accurate system in the end. Does any country you know use this system btw (for actual direct public voting of head of govt/state...I know Australia does so for their lower house which is effectively about the same thing)?
> 
> If I had to guess I would say Switzerland (given they vote by cantons and there is rotation in their official leadership anyway)...but I am not sure.




I believe Ireland does too for its Presidential elections. 



Nilgiri said:


> IRV I believe will come to Ontario soon at municipal level.




That's good news. It's obviously most useful in elections with many different candidates. France could benefit from such a system in this election. 



Kat said:


> Kat has good policies. 18 hour grace period for naps every day. That is all.




A six hour workday? You already have my vote.

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## Louiq XIV

I also think Fillon won't make it and "les républicains" trapped themselves.




LA se Karachi said:


> I think he should be replaced as the candidate for The Republicans. There's nothing to lose. Any candidate would have a better chance of winning, at this point. Such a switch may not get them into the second round. But why not try? There's no point in going down with the sinking ship that Fillon's candidacy has unexpectedly turned into.



They should indeed have proposed another candidate 2 weeks ago but now they are trapped because they don't have enough time. A new candidate would need to get his 500 supporters but there is only 3 days left for that.




LA se Karachi said:


> Well, I prefer instant-runoff voting. It allows all choices to be evaluated fairly by the voters, and takes away the need for "strategic voting" that can skew elections.


France as experimented many election systems and since the 4th Republic (we are in our 5th Republic) we hate week Executive that is why we have this 1 v 1 2nd round to be sure to have a strongly elected President who will be able to say that he talks/acts in the name of the majority (>50% by construction).

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


>



If she was a true French patriot,she would have changed her name to Marine Le Stylo. She's just another British agent among the others. Nobody is fooled anymore.

@LA se Karachi @Louiq XIV @Philia 

So do you guys think the Le Pen vs Macron scenario is already written ?

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> So do you guys think the Le Pen vs Macron scenario is already written ?


It does appear so....and looking better for Macron than Le Pen. 


Louiq XIV said:


> France as experimented many election systems and since the 4th Republic (we are in our 5th Republic) we hate week Executive that is why we have this 1 v 1 2nd round to be sure to have a strongly elected President who will be able to say that he talks/acts in the name of the majority (>50% by construction).


I personally like French election system. I think it's more democratic. You must get 50%+ votes. Means you'll need to gather support from more people to be ultimately elected. While in may countries you simply win by winning more seats and a party with 30% vote can win majority seats. French system seems better if you're a democracy.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> So do you guys think the Le Pen vs Macron scenario is already written ?




That's what it's looking like. I don't see how Fillon recovers from this. His faltering candidacy may also push some soft Fillon supporters into Macron's column as well, hoping to prevent a Le Pen vs. Hamon second round.



Louiq XIV said:


> France as experimented many election systems and since the 4th Republic (we are in our 5th Republic) we hate week Executive that is why we have this 1 v 1 2nd round to be sure to have a strongly elected President who will be able to say that he talks/acts in the name of the majority (>50% by construction).




Instant runoff voting accomplishes the same thing. It pits foes against each other in match-ups, until a winner with a majority is determined:










_
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

_
This allows the voters to rank the candidates in the order they see fit, and eliminates the need for strategic voting.

In any case, France could also use an IRV method for its first round to determine the top two candidates. And then have a proper one versus one second round later, as it does now.

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## Taygibay

^^^ 

As a voter, I'd rather have the chance to react to a surprise first turn.

It happened in France the sole time a LePen got a face to face for Prez.
The result gave a clear idea of how determined our population was to
stay away from toxic shorthand of Liberty without fraternity and equality.

We're rich enough to allow ourselves the luxury of thinking about our choices.
For which I am personally thankful!

Good day to you, Tay.

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> So do you guys think the Le Pen vs Macron scenario is already written ?



What is written is Le Pen winning the first round and loosing the 2nd whoever she faces in the second round.

Now I indeed think that Fillon has probably lost (but not totally written yet)

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## Vergennes

*France approves 11 candidates for presidential race*


Eleven candidates have been approved to run for French president, the country's Constitutional Council announced Saturday, a month before the vote.
The eleven received the 500-plus signatures from mayors needed to compete in the first round of the election on April 23, the council's president Laurent Fabius said.

With no candidate expected to win an outright majority at the first round, the two top contenders will go through to a decisive run-off on May 7th.

On Monday evening, five main candidates will go head-to-head in the first of three TV debates.

They are: far-right leader Marine Le Pen, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, Republicans nominee Francois Fillon, the Socialist Party's Benoit Hamon and Communist-backed candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The other six candidates, none of whom is expected to garner over five percent, include a Trotskyist economy teacher, an anti-American nationalist convinced the European Union is an CIA-backed plot and a conspiracy theorist who has called in the past for a "thermo-nuclear corridor" between Earth and Mars.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170318/france-approves-11-candidates-for-presidential-race

So here's the full list of candidates ;

François Fillon : The Republicans
Benoît Hamon : Socialist Party
Emmanuel Macron : En Marche!
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : Arise France
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : Left Party
Nathalie Arthaud : Worker's struggle
Marine Le Pen : National Front
François Asselineau : UPR
Philippe Poutou : New Anti Capitalist Party
Jacques Cheminade : Solidarity and Progress
Jean Lasalle : / (Don't even know)

Also,the Green candidate,Yannick Jadot decided earlier to back Benoît Hamon so gets out of the race.

@Philia @LA se Karachi
-
Meanwhile,Macron presented his Defense policies this morning,and among the other things,proposes a short and compulsory military service of 1 month to the young persons between 18 and 21 years old. This would councern about 600K persons each years. He says that he wants every young persons to experience the military life (even if shortly) and to take part in the defense spirit. He adds that in case of crisis,we would be able to mobilize additional personnels alongside the National Guard.






@Louiq XIV @Taygibay Personally,I think this is a good idea. But 1 month seems too short to me. He estimates the cost at between €2 and €3Bn each years + between €15 and €20Bn to create the needed infrastructures.

-----> https://www.challenges.fr/entrepris...marche-de-macron-analyse-et-decryptage_461309

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## Taygibay

Y avait qu'à pas l'enlever en 98 déjà! ^^^
[ So why did we stop less than 20 years ago? ]

As for the elections, if I understood the process :
Je vote Le Pen au premier tour _passeke ça compte pas_
et ensuite n'importe qui sauf passeke L'heure est Loire
... euh, non, passeke l'Eure est grave, pardon!
So I vote Le Pen in the First round as
it's just for kicks and then anyone but? ​
Perso, je voterais bien NACP passeke les poutous,
c'est doux surtout les gros ( Est-il obèse le Philippe? )!
Untranslatable joke about that candidate
whose name means Hugs&Kisses in slang.​
Mais avant, j'aimerais savoir ce qu'il est advenu de
l'Ancien Parti Anti_Capitaliste! Ont-ils fait faillite? 
So wait, then what happened to the Old Anti-
Capitalist party? Did they go bankrupt or what?​
Keep smiling and good day all, surtout Gab, Tay.
_Tay transl._​

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## Vergennes

Taygibay said:


> Y avait qu'à pas l'enlever en 98 déjà! ^^^
> [ So why did we stop less than 20 years ago? ]



"Défaire et refaire".


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## Blue Marlin

so @Vergennes @Taygibay who are the candidates, and what's their stance (left/right wing)


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## Taygibay

Vergennes said:


> "Défaire et refaire".



Persistance et continuité dans l'action et toussa toussa.
I'm not a big fan of the social worker slogan gibberish.
Tsssk ...

It's the 5-year dictatorships' vision that's nearsighted.



Blue Marlin said:


> who are the candidates, and what's their stance (left/right wing)



Wow? Really, mate? I'll give you the order left to right
*Jean-Luc Melenchon* *Benoit Hamon Emmanuel Macron Francois Fillon Marine Le Pen*​and you'll have to wait until tomorrow for a zany half
poem half joke and half educational post because the
son wants to watch a movie or something.

Great evening both, Tay.

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## Vergennes

*Macron holds edge in French election race ahead of first debate*


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN16Q0J8

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> *Macron holds edge in French election race ahead of first debate*
> 
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN16Q0J8




It does look like Macron is gaining some Fillon supporters. I'm almost certain now that he and Le Pen will advance to the second round.

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## KediKesenFare3

Vote for Le Pen, please.


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## Taygibay

KediKesenFare said:


> Vote for Le Pen, please.



Why don't you vote Erdogan his full powers?
It will have pretty much the same effect.

Tsssk, Tay.


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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> It does look like Macron is gaining some Fillon supporters. I'm almost certain now that he and Le Pen will advance to the second round.



Everything is possible right now. The TV debate today will be the real start of the campaign and nobody will make a _faux-pas_. Fillon's last chance to bounce back and Macron's time to impose himself. Fillon was very good during the right primary's TV debates,he will give everything in the coming ones. The debates will probably influence people's votes and the indecisive voters.
A bit disappointed that only five of the candidates were invited to this debate ("the most importants"),as I would have liked the others to be present,know those I don't know much,learn about their planned policies etc... Not really democratic if you ask me.
-
A fact that you probably didn't know : In the recent polls,about those that answered they would vote for Macron,about 45% of them are very sure of their choice,and wouldn't change,while 55% are not sure of their choice and could change.

To compare : The percentage of surveyed people sure of their choice for Marine Le Pen was at 79% and 73% for François Fillon.

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## Taygibay

OK, in answer to BlueMarlin's plea,
here is the snapshot of French 2017
presidential elections with a smile 

*In the left corner :*

Jean-Luc Melanchon is your charismatic strike organizer_ par excellence._
Communists and friends are his basic constituency but his telegenic ardor
and better than most mastery of numbers saw him rise in popularity of late.
The alter-mondialist and hardcore anti-capitalists will vote for him by default.
[+-10%]

Strength : Speaks fast!
Weakness : main discourse away from main electorate.

Favorite song : L'Internationale.


Benoit Hamon is a reliable and loyal Socialist. That maybe his nemesis under
the circumstances as Socialists have just proved how unreliable they were, by
nature one could say, and his loyalty last served the most inept of presidents.
Relative youth or looks won't cut it. Only loyal socialists will vote for him. [-20%]

Strength : Soft but not as soft as Hollande.
Weakness : Perceived as continuity in error.

Favourite song : I believe I can fly.


*Smack in the middle :*

Emmanuel Macron is the right guy in the right place at the right time, right now.
This Socialist by heart is a manager by trade and right leaning enough. His work
although questionable for the last government showed him as a pragmatist which
in a band of unfocused amateurs as was the last government made him shine like
a supernova and attracted the good will of the center-leaning right. In a country
that always had middle ground in its political landscape but rarely the right men
to promote and enforce it, he may be the consensual solution. [ Could get over 25% ]

Strength : Can get votes from all non-extremist voters.
Weakness : None [ or maybe being perceived as most likely to succeed, often a pitfall ].

Favourite song : Stuck in the middle with you.


*In the right corner :*

François Fillon is the default guy from the classic Right gang and indeed has proved
as much with his fake job for the missus affair right after just seeming the less cor-
-rupt of that gang. Do remember that one of the battle cries of the Front National is
that all of the old school political parties are in cahoots to share power and riches ...
and that the hard right / soft mannered Fillon rose to Party representation amidst a
violent exchange of blows between hoodlums ( Juppé went to live in Canada for a
while ... while ineligible by justice decision versus Sarkozy that had party accounts
tweaked to cover excess spending in the election he lost to bumbling Frankie Hollande ).
[15%]

Strength : Still breathing and last standing of his gang if wobbly.
Weakness : Won't garner public trust save classic Right hardliners.

Favourite song : I will survive.


Marine Le Pen is a sort of Trump with a better political background, knowledge and
acumen. Her party, cleansed by her of her father's toxic histrionics, has never been
closer to garnering popular support, helped that it was by terrorism under the last
government. For Marine rejects the EU ( tuned with Brexit ), is isolationist in trade
( tuned à la Trump ), wants to curb immigration ( tuned with security concerns ) &
which is less clear wants the Franc to return. 3 out of those 4 earned her the clear
dislike of the industry and corporations which limits funding to grass roots money.
She's a Marine who's the daughter of a Légionnaire ... added perk on a mil forum?

Strength : The traditional parties did everything they could to justify her claims.
Weakness : She may seem less fascist and revisionist than her father but those
same or same type of intellectuals that helped him are still around in the *FN* and
French people are still likely to vote en bloc against her in the second turn [82,2% ag. dad].

Favourite song : Back in Black.

Hope it helps, Tay.

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## Louiq XIV

Journalist : "How are you doing Mr Fillon ?"
Fillon :

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## TankMan

Desert Fox said:


> Socialists in a nutshell  :
> 
> View attachment 351209
> 
> 
> @flamer84 @Nilgiri @T-72 @boomslang


Meanwhile, Capitalists:




10 million starve to death every year in Capitalist countries, and Capitalist economies go to hell every 7 years because of the inevitable boom-bust cycle.

Do educate yourself on socialism and other critiques of capitalism before dismissing them.

If memes alone counted as legitimate arguments, Capitalism would've collapsed by now:


----------



## Nevsky

*Marine Le Pen: Russia and France should join efforts in war on terror*






Russia and France should unite efforts in the fight against common challenges, primarily against Islamic fundamentalism, leader of France’s National Front political party and presidential hopeful, Marine Le Pen, said on March 24.

"France already bears a heavy burden in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism, and Russia is making an unquestionable contribution to clamping down on this fundamentalism," she said at a meeting of Russia’s State Duma (lower house of parliament) International Affairs Committee.

"I believe that to combat these challenges two our nations should unite efforts and give them a worthy rebuff," Le Pen said.

"This new world, which is emerging before our eyes now, is already facing two serious challenges - globalism and Islamic fundamentalism delivering blows to peace and security by terrorist attacks," she said.

Le Pen has also praised Russia’s military campaign in Syria. "Fundamentalism is slowly retreating, also thanks to the assistance of Russia, which dealt a heavy blow to it by its intervention in Syria," the French politician said.

http://rbth.com/news/2017/03/24/mar...e-should-join-efforts-in-war-on-terror_726441
http://rbth.com/news/2017/03/24/mar...e-should-join-efforts-in-war-on-terror_726441

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/845302598467010560

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## Vergennes

@Louiq XIV @Taygibay It's friday,good week-end !

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## Taygibay

Same back and good voting, Tay.

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## Desert Fox

TankMan said:


> Meanwhile, Capitalists:
> View attachment 385656
> 
> 10 million starve to death every year in Capitalist countries, and Capitalist economies go to hell every 7 years because of the inevitable boom-bust cycle.
> 
> Do educate yourself on socialism and other critiques of capitalism before dismissing them.
> 
> If memes alone counted as legitimate arguments, Capitalism would've collapsed by now:
> 
> View attachment 385653
> View attachment 385654


I hate Capitalism just as much as i hate Socialism (Marxist Socialism and its various derivatives, to be specific).
Usually by "Socialism" most people imply Marxist Socialism in most cases nowadays at least anyway. The irony of it all is that the formulators of Marxism (or Communism or socialism, whichever name you prefer) were Capitalist Jews , which explains why Marxism/socialism never worked and never will work. Though it has only worked in the mass starvation of the very workers it claims to be the savior of (that alone says a lot about the founders of such a vile ideology) .

Even today you have wealthy Jews like Bernie Sanders duping the dumb masses into believing their false promises whilst themselves living within the safe confines of their gated upper class communities away from all of the poverty stricken drudges of society whom they claim to be champions of. The people who push this ideology don't practice it themselves. That alone is a red flag in itself.



TankMan said:


> If memes alone counted as legitimate arguments, Capitalism would've collapsed by now:


One does not need an argument to prove Communism is a failure. It has already proven that on its own over and over again.



@Psychic @Nilgiri @The Sandman

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## Vergennes

*Macron earns backing from Valls but vows to 'renew faces' in French politics*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170329/former-pm-valls-endorses-macron-for-french-presidency

*Who to choose in France's election? 40 percent of voters still not sure*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170328/wh...-election-40-percent-of-voters-still-not-sure

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## Vergennes

The official campaign start on Monday the 10th of April. 

But before that,there will be another TV debate on Tuesday the 4th of April. This time,all of the 11 candidates will be present.

François Fillon (The Republicans) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left Party) were the first to release their campaign posters and slogans.

"A will for France"






"The power of the people"


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## AUz

Hoping for a Macron victory.

Hopefully French are smart enough to reject populist con(wo)man Le Pen.

Dutch stopped their conman in it's tracks. It's time for France and then Germany to lead the way.

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## Vergennes

*The French election process explained*

https://www.ft.com/content/74656cb6-fbe3-369d-9072-df0529ed7d48


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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> *The French election process explained*
> 
> https://www.ft.com/content/74656cb6-fbe3-369d-9072-df0529ed7d48


Who is your favorite and who do you predict to win?


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## Vergennes

T-123456 said:


> Who is your favorite and who do you predict to win?



Probably Macron. The coming weeks and debates will be important in my final choice. I always supported Fillon,but the fake jobs scandal he is embroiled with bothers me.

As for who will win,I predict the first round to be won by Marine Le Pen and Macron. Then Macron will win by a large margin the second round. The French voters have generally always been coherant during the general elections,and will give Macron and En Marche! a majority.

Of course,the election remains totally unpredictable + a large part of the voters (~40%) remain still undecided,so take it with a pinch of salt.

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## Vergennes

@Taygibay @Louiq XIV

Sometimes,there are some streets you just have to avoid....



Spoiler


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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> @Taygibay @Louiq XIV
> 
> Sometimes,there are some streets you just have to avoid....



Ha! Ha! Ha! great one.

But in fact it should be ...





Yeah I know I have to develop my photoshop skills

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## Vergennes

@Taygibay @Louiq XIV

What do you think about the candidate of La France Insoumise (The Unsubmissive France) ? Jean-Luc Mélenchon ? There seems to be a good dynamic around him recently and is even neck to neck with (if not overtaking) Fillon in certain opinion polls,also to the detriment of the Socialist Benoît Hamon.

*French far-left firebrand’s campaign of revenge*

http://www.politico.eu/article/jean...brand-campaign-of-revenge-election-president/

@LA se Karachi @Philia Seems like the candidate is gaining momentum. His popularity is increasing after the last TV debate where he well defended his project and ideas + obliterating the other candidates. His meetings are gathering lot of people too.

A fun fact : He became viral after being present at two rallies at the same moment,but in different places..... how ?
With an hologram !

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @Taygibay @Louiq XIV
> 
> What do you think about the candidate of La France Insoumise (The Unsubmissive France) ? Jean-Luc Mélenchon ? There seems to be a good dynamic around him recently and is even neck to neck with (if not overtaking) Fillon in certain opinion polls,also to the detriment of the Socialist Benoît Hamon.
> 
> *French far-left firebrand’s campaign of revenge*
> 
> http://www.politico.eu/article/jean...brand-campaign-of-revenge-election-president/
> 
> @LA se Karachi @Philia Seems like the candidate is gaining momentum. His popularity is increasing after the last TV debate where he well defended his project + obliterating the other candidates. His meetings are gathering lot of people too.
> 
> A fun fact : He became viral after being present in two rallies at the same moment,but in different places..... how ?
> With an hologram !
> 
> View attachment 388229



If NO Melenchon+Hamon before elction = Whatever momentum he has, he lose.

Yet it's still the mirror of Le Pen, too much radical for the majority of leftist and even more for the center-Right...

Poll
Macron then Lepen ( 1-2 pt btw them) Then Fillion( 19%) and Melonchon( around 15%) then Hamon ( 11-12%)

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> @Taygibay @Louiq XIV
> 
> What do you think about the candidate of La France Insoumise (The Unsubmissive France) ? Jean-Luc Mélenchon ? There seems to be a good dynamic around him recently and is even neck to neck with (if not overtaking) Fillon in certain opinion polls,also to the detriment of the Socialist Benoît Hamon.
> 
> *French far-left firebrand’s campaign of revenge*
> 
> http://www.politico.eu/article/jean...brand-campaign-of-revenge-election-president/
> 
> @LA se Karachi @Philia Seems like the candidate is gaining momentum. His popularity is increasing after the last TV debate where he well defended his project and ideas + obliterating the other candidates. His meetings are gathering lot of people too.
> 
> A fun fact : He became viral after being present at two rallies at the same moment,but in different places..... how ?
> With an hologram !
> 
> View attachment 388229




It's interesting to see him rising in the polls. This has been an odd election cycle indeed. He may overtake Hamon, but I would be surprised if he surpassed Fillon's vote share. Though with each passing week, Fillon's poll numbers seem to get a little worse as the scandal sinks in. So, who knows? Anything is possible, I suppose.

What is clear though, is that Macron and Le Pen are the front-runners to take the top two spots in the first round.

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## Taygibay

See it this way, guys : it is a special election
due to the outgoing president's record that
ensures the PS will finish last, no matter what.

For leftists as HanniB remarked, the split is
logically favouring the further left with only
stalwart partisans voting PS especially with
the mentioned mirror effect to Le Pen's FN.
Do note the conspicuous absence of words
like communism from Melanchon's discourse
that would mentally block many a voter?

Meanwhile, Macron is going right from that
PS position and has been for a while. At the
same time one year ago, his law project for
work and work fiscality had already pushed
the boundaries of les _socialistes,_ getting him
a few rebukes and more for being too Right?
( pun intended )​
Emmanuel the well named got many rallying
from both sides ( as Valls, also a right leaning socialist )
and outshining the remaining smooth 'n slippery
as soap bars center candidates was effortless.

But do remember that France's presidential vote
takes two turns and that us French know that ...
so IMHoO, what we're witnessing is a _strange for_
_outsiders but locally logical _situation : for the 1st
turn, people vote in reaction to the past 5 years
with more force than usual because they already
know that in the second turn they'll have to vote
utilitarian.

There is one immense bug with that in the sense
that there could be disaffection in those that just
voted for more change, that they might feel like
voting Macron after voting Melanchon is akin to
being shortchanged and vote in lesser numbers
when it will count most.

And yes, there are ways for abstention rates /
participation to cut enough into that blocking vote
to allow for an FN victory even without 50% support.

Can't wait for it to be over honestly, Tay.

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## Vergennes

AUz said:


> Hoping for a Macron victory.
> 
> Hopefully French are smart enough to reject populist con(wo)man Le Pen.
> 
> Dutch stopped their conman in it's tracks. It's time for France and then Germany to lead the way.



*Could Marine Le Pen become France's next president?*

www.france24.com/en/20170330-france-could-far-right-marine-le-pen-become-french-president-glass-ceiling-macron


* The grassroots 'guerilla army' powering Macron's French election battle *

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ch-presidential-candidate-grassroots-movement

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## Mage

Well it looks to me that Melenchon is a better candidate than Hamon. I also noticed that he's neck to neck with Fillon and they way Fillon's numbers are sliding I wouldn't be surprised if Melenchon actually gets more vote than Fillon. 

Anyway things looks all set for a Le Pen Macron finale where things don't look favourable to Mademoiselle.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Well it looks to me that Melenchon is a better candidate than Hamon. I also noticed that he's neck to neck with Fillon and they way Fillon's numbers are sliding I wouldn't be surprised if Melenchon actually gets more vote than Fillon.
> 
> Anyway things looks all set for a Le Pen Macron finale where things don't look favourable to Mademoiselle.



@LA se Karachi I've observed some people who were handing over (or trying at least) leaflets for Fillon,and almost nobody took them,sometimes people screaming on them or had massive negative opinions about the candidate. Even heard "give the money back". I felt pretty bad for them as everyone were literally rejecting their anger on them. These unpaid volunteers who give their free time for their candidate shouldn't be treated as such just because he did bad things. They remained very nice and polite. I felt sad for them so I took one leaflet.

This shows nonetheless that Fillon's image was severely damaged after the affair was revealed.
-
Some young and pretty nice Macron volunteers went on knock on door operation to hand their leaflets and talk about their candidate. Was surprised to also see our former Socialist mayor. I think he jumped from the sinking Socialist ship something like that,like many others.

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## HannibalBarca

Moment détente.

LePen under the Beautiful Sun






Melenchon Lupus Rex






Fillion ille Pu Rex






Macaron Ex Machina...






The True, The Only, The Great. ( He was running for President)
Durif Deus Rex






Stultus Rex or Regina... at that moment he lost against Tariq Omnius Ramadanus Rex...






*I will eat you dry...




*

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Moment détente.
> 
> LePen under the Beautiful Sun
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Melenchon Lupus Rex
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fillion ille Pu Rex
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macaron Ex Machina...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The True, The Only, The Great. ( He was running for President)
> Durif Deus Rex
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Stultus Rex or Regina... at that moment he lost against Tariq Omnius Ramadanus Rex...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *I will eat you dry...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *



Excellent.

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## Vergennes

Today,the 11 candidates will face off in a debate organized by BFMTV.

Each candidates will have 1 minute to introduce themselves and they will be given 1 minute and 30 secondes each to answer the questions they are asked. They are also going to be given a short amount of time to briefly debate with other candidates,show their disagreements,etc.

There will be 3 main themes for this debate ;

-How to create jobs ?
-How to protect the French ?
-How would you implement your social model ?

At the end,ech candidate will have 1 minute to conclude by answering to this question "How to bring together the French ?".







-
A reminder : We are less than three weeks away from the first round which takes place on April the 23rd.
-
The last Elabe poll for the election still shows Macron and Le Pen leading for the first round.

Emmanuel Macron : 26%. (+0,5)
Marine Le Pen : 24,5% (-0,5)
François Fillon : 17%. (-0,5)

The percentage of surveyed people now sure of their choice for Macron now stands at more than 60%,while few weeks ago was at 45%. Le Pen is at about 80%.

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## Vergennes

The campaign posters of all the candidates. (Jean Lasalle didn't release his,as I didn't see it yet)

*Nathalie Artaud*



Spoiler











*François Fillon *



Spoiler











*François Asselineau*



Spoiler











*Philippe Poutou*



Spoiler











*Jacques Cheminade*



Spoiler











*Nicolas Dupont-Aignan*



Spoiler











*Jean-Luc Mélenchon*



Spoiler











*Benoît Hamon*



Spoiler











*Marine Le Pen*



Spoiler











*Emmanuel Macron*



Spoiler

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## Vergennes

*Meet the 'other six' candidates running for France's presidency*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/th...ave-never-heard-of-who-could-become-president

*Macron to come under fire from all sides as 11 candidates prepare to face off*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/melenchon-strides-into-second-french-election-debate

*Why embattled Fillon still believes he can be the next president of France*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/wh...lieves-he-can-be-the-next-president-of-france

@Philia @LA se Karachi @Nilgiri

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *Meet the 'other six' candidates running for France's presidency*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/th...ave-never-heard-of-who-could-become-president
> 
> *Macron to come under fire from all sides as 11 candidates prepare to face off*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/melenchon-strides-into-second-french-election-debate
> 
> *Why embattled Fillon still believes he can be the next president of France*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170404/wh...lieves-he-can-be-the-next-president-of-france
> 
> @Philia @LA se Karachi @Nilgiri



Cnews/BFM Presidential debat at 11 is useless... around 15mins for each of them... it's a waste of Time, It will be a ping pong match btw the Top 5 vs Bottom 6...

For my part, I will jump on my "hypothetical scientific" ancestors on M6... At least I will learn smthing "new"...

For those Interested
11 Prez Debat. Cnews/BfmTV 20h40 (French TIme +1)
Streaming links: http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/live-video/
http://www.cnews.fr/direct

Premier Homme 21h M6 
SL: http://www.6play.fr/m6/direct

Have Fun


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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Cnews/BFM Presidential debat at 11 is useless... around 15mins for each of them... it's a waste of Time, It will be a ping pong match btw the Top 5 vs Bottom 6...
> 
> For my part, I will jump on my "hypothetical scientific" ancestors on M6... At least I will learn smthing "new"...
> 
> For those Interested
> 11 Prez Debat. Cnews/BfmTV 20h40 (French TIme +1)
> Streaming links: http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/live-video/
> http://www.cnews.fr/direct
> 
> Premier Homme 21h M6
> SL: http://www.6play.fr/m6/direct
> 
> Have Fun



So,which candidate are you supporting ? (Si c'est pas trop indiscret...)


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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> So,which candidate are you supporting ? (Si c'est pas trop indiscret...)



Le seul qui tiens la route, il est pas parfait mais bon. Macron

Melonchon: S'emporte trop vite, Control de soi niette... Juste avec ça il est , en tant qu'individu, non viable pour un poste de Président. De plus ses idées, sont trop utopiste pour le monde d'aujourd'hui. ( Mais idées intéressantes)

Hamon: No comment. trop mou, charisme aussi haut qu'une chèvre en levrette... . Programme, peu être intéressant, mais tant bien que mal, pas adapté à notre monde d'aujourd'hui.

Macron: C'est la Balance, il fait l’équilibriste et "semble" avoir la tête sur les épaules. Programme flou qui vire dans le populisme idéologique , comme les autres candidats, espérons qu'il n'y plonge pas encore plus...

Fillion: Copies Chinoise de Sarko... + Les affaires de tocards+ Programme réchauffé qui change à chaque jour de pluie... + Prestance de Chameau + Charisme... à faire peurs des mouettes...

LePen: Un Melonchon en Femme. Certaines idées cohérentes et intéressantes, mais est bouffée par l'ombre du "Black" FN de l'époque. Trop de baguage inutile.

PS: Le Charisme , le control de soi, L'image est important, soit sur le plan national, pour ce faire respecter ( look Hollande, le miskine de service) et sur le Plan international ( look Putin, pays en crise, mais avec ça gueule+Charisme a reussi à faire plier ses voisins et aujourd'hui il recolte les Billet vert... )

Au Final, il sont loin d'être Bon. Les Programmes sont soit trop utopique ou dépassé par rapport au monde d'aujourd'hui. La France n'a plus grand poids sur la scène International, que ce soit Politique/Financier et donc soit elle respecte les réglés ou se creuse un trou. Le jour où ces utopique voudrons changer le Monde, ils devront penser à Mettre la France en Haut du podium international, avant d'agiter la carotte...

Les autres superpuissance peuvent nous écraser, que ce soit la Chine/US/Inde/RU etc... Donc il faut s'adapter à la règle du plus fort, et monter jusqu'au Top avec LEUR règle et après ça... on pourra faire notre sauce...

La France avait choisis les règles d'hier, aujourd'hui la France a été dépassé, c'est la Vie, Peut-être demain ça sera différent.

C'est long et peut être chiant (surement), mais c'était mon moment Dissertation

ps: Sorry it's in French
Synopsis:
Macron for me + If you want to rule, at least be the King before playing with the stick...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Le seul qui tiens la route, il est pas parfait mais bon. Macron
> 
> Melonchon: S'emporte trop vite, Control de soi niette... Juste avec ça il est , en tant qu'individu, non viable pour un poste de Président. De plus ses idées, sont trop utopiste pour le monde d'aujourd'hui. ( Mais idées intéressantes)
> 
> Hamon: No comment. trop mou, charisme aussi haut qu'une chèvre en levrette... . Programme, peu être intéressant, mais tant bien que mal, pas adapté à notre monde d'aujourd'hui.
> 
> Macron: C'est la Balance, il fait l’équilibriste et "semble" avoir la tête sur les épaules. Programme flou qui vire dans le populisme idéologique , comme les autres candidats, espérons qu'il n'y plonge pas encore plus...
> 
> Fillion: Copies Chinoise de Sarko... + Les affaires de tocards+ Programme réchauffé qui change à chaque jour de pluie... + Prestance de Chameau + Charisme... à faire peurs des mouettes...
> 
> LePen: Un Melonchon en Femme. Certaines idées cohérentes et intéressantes, mais est bouffée par l'ombre du "Black" FN de l'époque. Trop de baguage inutile.
> 
> PS: Le Charisme , le control de soi, L'image est important, soit sur le plan national, pour ce faire respecter ( look Hollande, le miskine de service) et sur le Plan international ( look Putin, pays en crise, mais avec ça gueule+Charisme a reussi à faire plier ses voisins et aujourd'hui il recolte les Billet vert... )
> 
> Au Final, il sont loin d'être Bon. Les Programmes sont soit trop utopique ou dépassé par rapport au monde d'aujourd'hui. La France n'a plus grand poids sur la scène International, que ce soit Politique/Financier et donc soit elle respecte les réglés ou se creuse un trou. Le jour où ces utopique voudrons changer le Monde, ils devront penser à Mettre la France en Haut du podium international, avant d'agiter la carotte...
> 
> Les autres superpuissance peuvent nous écraser, que ce soit la Chine/US/Inde/RU etc... Donc il faut s'adapter à la règle du plus fort, et monter jusqu'au Top avec LEUR règle et après ça... on pourra faire notre sauce...
> 
> La France avait choisis les règles d'hier, aujourd'hui la France a été dépassé, c'est la Vie, Peut-être demain ça sera différent.
> 
> C'est long et peut être chiant (surement), mais c'était mon moment Dissertation
> 
> ps: Sorry it's in French
> Synopsis:
> Macron for me + If you want to rule, at least be the King before playing with the stick...



Well,it's very fair. Thanks.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Well,it's very fair. Thanks.


No problem


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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Cnews/BFM Presidential debat at 11 is useless... around 15mins for each of them... it's a waste of Time, It will be a ping pong match btw the Top 5 vs Bottom 6...
> 
> For my part, I will jump on my "hypothetical scientific" ancestors on M6... At least I will learn smthing "new"...
> 
> For those Interested
> 11 Prez Debat. Cnews/BfmTV 20h40 (French TIme +1)
> Streaming links: http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/live-video/
> http://www.cnews.fr/direct
> 
> Premier Homme 21h M6
> SL: http://www.6play.fr/m6/direct
> 
> Have Fun



C'mon you should turn it on,with the quatuor Arthaud-Cheminade,Lasalle-Poutou,don't know if it's a sketch or something else.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> C'mon you should turn it on,with the quatuor Arthaud-Cheminade,Lasalle-Poutou,don't know if it's a sketch or a debate about the potential future French presidents.


lol don't worry , Ive got a dual screen with M6+Cnews in live... And what is happening is not even a sketch... Poor France...

Et dire que France2 veut maintenir son debat...



Vergennes said:


> C'mon you should turn it on,with the quatuor Arthaud-Cheminade,Lasalle-Poutou,don't know if it's a sketch or something else.



Même le Docu sur les grands singes de 13 Millions d'années... est plus civilisé et serieux que ce debat...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> lol don't worry , Ive got a dual screen with M6+Cnews in live... And what is happening is not even a sketch... Poor France...
> 
> Et dire que France2 veut maintenir son debat...
> 
> 
> 
> Même le Docu de singes de 13 Millions d'année... est plus civilisé et serieux que ce debat...



Je regarde le débat avec ma femme depuis toute à l'heure. On ne sait pas si l'on doit en rire ou en pleurer. C'est dépriment.

PS : Jean Lasalle.... je sais pas si il sort du bistro de coin,mais je ne comprend pas cet individu,ni ses paroles. Je suis un peu dur avec lui pt'être. Que dire des autres..... hystériques. J'ai l'impression de regarder des animaux encagés.... Ouh ouh ouh ah ah ah..... ça promet.


----------



## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Je regarde le débat avec ma femme depuis toute à l'heure. On ne sait pas si l'on doit en rire ou en pleurer. C'est dépriment.
> 
> PS : Jean Lasalle.... je sais pas si il sort du bistro de coin,mais je ne comprend pas cet individu,ni ses paroles. Je suis un peu dur avec lui pt'être. Que dire des autres..... hystériques. J'ai l'impression de regarder des animaux encagés.... Ouh ouh ouh ah ah ah..... ça promet.



Même les Guignoles deviennent des amateurs devant eux 
Et Groland devient "normal" à mes yeux...

Impatient de regarder les Zapping/Debrief des chroniques de cette semaine... certains vont s'amuser...



HannibalBarca said:


> Même les Guignoles deviennent des amateurs devant eux
> Et Groland devient "normal" à mes yeux...
> 
> Impatient de regarder les Zapping/Debrief des chroniques de cette semaine... certains vont s'amuser...



J'ai mal à la tête avec ces switchs de plan de camera... Film D'action maintenant...



Vergennes said:


> Je regarde le débat avec ma femme depuis toute à l'heure. On ne sait pas si l'on doit en rire ou en pleurer. C'est dépriment.
> 
> PS : Jean Lasalle.... je sais pas si il sort du bistro de coin,mais je ne comprend pas cet individu,ni ses paroles. Je suis un peu dur avec lui pt'être. Que dire des autres..... hystériques. J'ai l'impression de regarder des animaux encagés.... Ouh ouh ouh ah ah ah..... ça promet.



OMG !! ce Lassalle.... et Poutou a laché la barre...

Bienvenue à la Garderie de L'elysée...

Omg Ruth elkrief qui dit a Cheminade de se lancer, de s'imposer dans le brouhaha...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Lassalle....



What did you (we) expect anyway ?






https://fr.news.yahoo.com/jean-lassalle-justifie-retard-au-185400931.html

Trump,Putin would die of laugh. He's a funny guy though and seems nice. But I would prefere him next to me in the bistro than in the Elysee palace.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> What did you (we) expect anyway ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://fr.news.yahoo.com/jean-lassalle-justifie-retard-au-185400931.html
> 
> Trump,Putin would die of laugh.



Saw that on Quotidien.. this guy is the summary of this compaign... F*ck you all!!!

Even in the Bistro I will fear losing my sanity...

Twitter TRend:

1/Lassalle
2/Poutou
and then Arthaud...



Vergennes said:


> What did you (we) expect anyway ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://fr.news.yahoo.com/jean-lassalle-justifie-retard-au-185400931.html
> 
> Trump,Putin would die of laugh. He's a funny guy though and seems nice. But I would prefere him next to me in the bistro than in the Elysee palace.



Bon j'abondonne... J'en peux plus, Je vais en Rire, ça me fera du bien...

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## Vergennes

@Taygibay @HannibalBarca @Louiq XIV

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @Taygibay @HannibalBarca @Louiq XIV
> 
> View attachment 388817



J'avais cru mal entendre...
Next Q:
Ruth: What do you think about France future?
Lassalle : Jackie&Michel!! 

C'est officiel... Les supporters de Lassalle sont avec lui pour du StandUp gratos...

Cheminade qui dit le mot "Jihadiste" avec l'accent Arabe... 
Vivement la Fin de cette élection...

Lassalle et la Theorie de L'arc électrique...

Ce débat restera das les Annales durant les décennies à venir... comme étant la Ligne rouge à NE JAMAIS reproduire...

Poutou retrouve ses racines de classe de College/Lycee...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> J'avais cru mal entendre...
> Next Q:
> Ruth: What do you think about France future?
> Lassalle : Jackie&Michel!!
> 
> C'est officiel... Les supporters de Lassalle sont avec lui pour du StandUp gratos...
> 
> Cheminade qui dit le mot "Jihadiste" avec l'accent Arabe...
> Vivement la Fin de cette élection...
> 
> Lassalle et la Theorie de L'arc électrique...
> 
> Ce débat restera das les Annales durant les décennies à venir... comme étant la Ligne rouge à NE JAMAIS reproduire...
> 
> Poutou retrouve ses racines de classe de College/Lycee...



Poutou who obliterated Le Pen. Everyone applauding.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Poutou who obliterated Le Pen. Everyone applauding.



Pas d'immunité ouvrière... gg patou 

OMG hahaha avec le smic...

Melonchon a Lepen: "Vous servez a rien alors?" lol Le debat des rois de la casse.

Une chose de bien dans ce Debat, tout le monde vide son sac.

Et Hop Macron dans l'habille du roi salomon... Il parle..le silence règne...

ahhahaha la liste des dettes des parties. Trump l'amateur c'est officiel... ça dépasse les sketchs GAD+Debbouze... et co.

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## AUz

@Vergennes So who's the favorite right now to win?

What's the 'air' like in France before elections? In Pakistan we have this saying that you can 'sense' the 'air being flown in a particular direction' (in direction of some candidate that is on path win the elections).

Who what is your view?

Macron or Le Pen? (Or can't say for sure)


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## HannibalBarca

AUz said:


> @Vergennes So who's the favorite right now to win?
> 
> What's the 'air' like in France before elections? In Pakistan we have this saying that you can 'sense' the 'air being flown in a particular direction' (in direction of some candidate that is on path win the elections).
> 
> Who what is your view?
> 
> Macron or Le Pen? (Or can't say for sure)



If you could see what happening btw those candidates right now on TV... you will love France...



Vergennes said:


> Poutou who obliterated Le Pen. Everyone applauding.


LASSALLE Je suis mort de rire!!!!!!!!!!!!!! j'en peux plus avec lui

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## Nilgiri

@Vergennes What you think about this?:






Basically if there is depressed voter turnout more than being predicted in polls (in anti-FN crowd) in the final round, Le Pen has a road to victory.

This is kind of what happened with Trump...the polls misjudged who truly were "likely" to vote and anti-trump ppl simply didn't come out to actually vote in the numbers needed esp in the swing states.

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> @Vergennes What you think about this?:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Basically if there is depressed voter turnout more than being predicted in polls (in anti-FN crowd) in the final round, Le Pen has a road to victory.
> 
> This is kind of what happened with Trump...the polls misjudged who truly were "likely" to vote and anti-trump ppl simply didn't come out to actually vote in the numbers needed esp in the swing states.



France as you know has a very different system than in the US. (Even more with that system of great electors) 
Trump would have never won with less than 50% of the votes (majority.)
It is very unlikely that Le Pen will reach the 50% on the first round. She will go on a second round with the other candidate that also made it.

There's a thing in France called "Front Républicain" (Republican Front) where people,irrespective of the party go to vote to block the National Front and their candidates and cast their votes to whoever faces Le Pen/NF.
The turnout is always higher on the second rounds where the NF is present. This happened during the Regional elections,like others. The NF has no reserve of voters.
Let's even think there's a surealistic situation that makes Le Pen win. She would still have to win enough seats in the general elections that will follow some weeks later,to form a government,and this is unthinkable,nearly impossible.
No party would ever want to cooperate with her. So she's doomed,if she loses or win.

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## Taygibay

^^^

Yeah, Le Pen has a chance but won't get a majority for her party.
Macron solves the same paradigm by not requiring a party at all.

Still, the percentage of ayant voté means nothing to me and I'd
want 50% + 1 vote of all enabled citizens for Président. And if you
tell me that maybe neither gets it and then what do we do, I'll just
answer that you keep the old prez until someone gets a majority.

In the present case, keeping Flanby should be scary enough to get 98% participation
... Le Pen or no Le Pen.

All good reasons to be sur les nerfs, tiens! Vivement l'été!

Great day all, Tay.

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## HannibalBarca

Taygibay said:


> ^^^
> 
> Yeah, Le Pen has a chance but won't get a majority for her party.
> Macron solves the same paradigm by not requiring a party at all.
> 
> Still, the percentage of ayant voté means nothing to me and I'd
> want 50% + 1 vote of all enabled citizens for Président. And if you
> tell me that maybe neither gets it and then what do we do, I'll just
> answer that you keep the old prez until someone gets a majority.
> 
> In the present case, keeping Flanby should be scary enough to get 98% participation
> ... Le Pen or no Le Pen.
> 
> All good reasons to be sur les nerfs, tiens, Vivement l'été!
> 
> Great day all, Tay.



Never I tho' to see the "Flanby" joke on a foreign Forum and less in a Def one... 
Miskine le Flanby...

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## Taygibay

^^^​1066 - Guillaume Le Conquérant.
2016 - Guimauve Le Consternant.

Où va la France, je vous le demande ma brave dame?

I'm just giving credit where credit's due? 

Tay.

P.S. Et Les Guignols, c'est devenu un classique, non?
Bruno Gaccio reçu à l'Académie et tout ça, toussa?

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## Vergennes

Taygibay said:


> 1066 - Guillaume Le Conquérant.
> 2016 - Guimauve Le Consternant.



Well...

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## HannibalBarca

Taygibay said:


> ^^^​1066 - Guillaume Le Conquérant.
> 2016 - Guimauve Le Consternant.
> 
> Où va la France, je vous le demande ma brave dame?
> 
> I'm just giving credit where credit's due?
> 
> Tay.
> 
> P.S. Et Les Guignols, c'est devenu un classique, non?
> Bruno Gaccio reçu à l'Académie et tout ça, toussa?





Vergennes said:


> Well...
> 
> View attachment 388911



On M6 yesterday night there was a Docu on our "hypothetical ancestor" . THe main idea is that Evolution gave Us, the Homo sapiens, the Modern intelligent Human being, with a sense of "Civilization"... tbh I'm still doubtfull about their BS... I'm really am... when watching Le Débat...

Still doubtfull on who was the Monkey and who was the Man...

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## Vergennes

Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?

*Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*


===============> https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home

An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)

@waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok

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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> 
> ===============> https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)
> 
> @waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok


Fillon 68%,Dupont-Aignan 58%,Le Pen 56 %,Macron 45%

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## waz

Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> 
> ===============> https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)
> 
> @waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok



Le Pen 68% lol.

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## AUz

Fillon: 58%

Le Pen: 56%


But I want Macron to win

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## LA se Karachi

waz said:


> Le Pen 68% lol.







Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> 
> ===============> https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)
> 
> @waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok




Hamon: 67% 

Macron: 60%

Fillon: 45%

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> 
> ===============> https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)
> 
> @waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok


https://votecompass.france24.com/pr...3d77e982ffd181ba513035f767a99032e4d1491421907

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## KediKesenFare3

The last TV debate was time wasting. 11 candidates, 4 hours, motherhood statements everywhere.


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## Vergennes

Surprised. 









KediKesenFare said:


> The last TV debate was time wasting. 11 candidates, 4 hours, motherhood statements everywhere.



A good democratic moment. But not to be done a second time !

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Surprised.
> 
> View attachment 389029





Interesting.

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## Kitten

Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)








I'm pulling for Macron despite not being wholly aligned with his ideology, but I'm not voting in French elections either. Le Pen can eat a butt and I don't know anything about anyone else.

...

Yeah, yeah, I'm a bloody leftist, I know.

Umm, I mean.

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## KediKesenFare3



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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Which French presidential candidate is the best match for you?
> 
> *Vote Compass is a tool developed by political scientists that calculates how your political views compare with those of the French presidential candidates.*
> 
> 
> ===============> https://votecompass.france24com/president/home
> 
> An interesting tool,why don't you guys try it ? ;-)
> 
> @waz @flamer84 @Blue Marlin @SMS Derfflinger @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi @Philia @Penguin @T-123456 @Providence @vostok



Macron 64%...

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## AUz

It's interesting...

Muslims on the forum are getting matched highest or second highest with Le Pen on consistent basis 

Shows that _generally_ Muslims are politically conservative/protectionist---but they hate it when they are on the receiving of their own preferred policies  


But still, I'm routing for Macron! F*ck Le Pen.



Vergennes said:


> Surprised.
> 
> View attachment 389029


----------



## SMS Derfflinger

Fillion 62% followed by Le Pen with 56% and Macron 55%...makes me to a right-left hippie, or something like that.

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## Nilgiri

Quelle surprise! 






But so many of the questions I was thinking "it depends"...so I picked "neutral".

Like taxes on all imports? IT DEPENDS! 

Glad the commie got 12% support from me hehe (is that the lowest for anyone that did this?). Thats still way too high!

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## Taygibay

Nilgiri said:


> But so many of the questions I was thinking "it depends"...so I picked "neutral".



Ah! Good, someone said it at last!

No offense to Verban but I thought you guys would
be able to decipher the methodology from taking the
test. As NilG points out, do you feel the answers you
gave where fixed in stone or do some depend on the
context?

Let me show that based on my Trotsko-Gaullist self-call :

On things pertaining to survival of the State, I'm hardcore
efficiency without compromise so for example on defence,
Compute what is needed for security, add for foreign policy
and give the forces the full amount, no less! 
I'd score below right of NilG above ...

But then on liberties, I'm a great big fan of what's not forbidden
is allowed so that I'd be in the tiny space up and left of Poutou-
Arthaud and I can prove it ... Philippe Gros-Bisou said in that
second debate that he wants to outlaw firing peeps never ever!
​I think people should be fired when incompetent, it's part of the
efficiency thing ... so that I actually protect one more liberty than
the red duo!!!


On all the rest, my answers depend on context. In America, I'd vote
to diminish defense budgets [ with caveat of spending those better ].

In fact, I have more than one nationality and vote very differently in
different places. I am the same guy, no split personality but different
political landscapes, choices and tasks to prioritize.

None of that was really found in this simple association test so that as
NilG ( though not using neutral, you SwitzerHund ), I had to answer
a notch or two away from my strict personal view on occasion.

No one should lose any sleep over where they scored.

Have a great night then, or nap, or day if you must, Tay.

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## Vergennes

François Fillon was floured during his arrival in one of his rally in Strasbourg. A person who was pretending to be a pro-Fillon activist,emptied a bag of flour on François Fillon. @Louiq XIV Damn,you Strasbourgeois !






BTW,it's not the only French politicial who was floured. We had Hollande.






Oh and it's not the first time a politician is floured in Strasbourg. There was also Valls some months ago. 






Not easy being a French politician. Between those being egged,floured,'pied'....

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## Taygibay

Still lucky considering how they cheat;
could be a lot worse :




​Just sayin', Tay.

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## LA se Karachi

Taygibay said:


> Still lucky considering how they cheat;
> could be a lot worse :
> 
> View attachment 389235
> ​Just sayin', Tay.




I was just about to say it's better than being tarred and feathered, like they used to do in the old days.

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> F @Louiq XIV Damn,you Strasbourgeois !



I promise it's not me ... I was busy working the all day ;-)

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## Nilgiri

Taygibay said:


> Ah! Good, someone said it at last!
> 
> No offense to Verban but I thought you guys would
> be able to decipher the methodology from taking the
> test. As NilG points out, do you feel the answers you
> gave where fixed in stone or do some depend on the
> context?
> 
> Let me show that based on my Trotsko-Gaullist self-call :
> 
> On things pertaining to survival of the State, I'm hardcore
> efficiency without compromise so for example on defence,
> Compute what is needed for security, add for foreign policy
> and give the forces the full amount, no less!
> I'd score below right of NilG above ...
> 
> But then on liberties, I'm a great big fan of what's not forbidden
> is allowed so that I'd be in the tiny space up and left of Poutou-
> Arthaud and I can prove it ... Philippe Gros-Bisou said in that
> second debate that he wants to outlaw firing peeps never ever!
> ​I think people should be fired when incompetent, it's part of the
> efficiency thing ... so that I actually protect one more liberty than
> the red duo!!!
> 
> 
> On all the rest, my answers depend on context. In America, I'd vote
> to diminish defense budgets [ with caveat of spending those better ].
> 
> In fact, I have more than one nationality and vote very differently in
> different places. I am the same guy, no split personality but different
> political landscapes, choices and tasks to prioritize.
> 
> None of that was really found in this simple association test so that as
> NilG ( though not using neutral, you SwitzerHund ), I had to answer
> a notch or two away from my strict personal view on occasion.
> 
> No one should lose any sleep over where they scored.
> 
> Have a great night then, or nap, or day if you must, Tay.



I have taken a few of these kind of tests before in other forums. So I know the problems governing them pretty well hehe.



Vergennes said:


> François Fillon was floured during his arrival in one of his rally in Strasbourg. A person who was pretending to be a pro-Fillon activist,emptied a bag of flour on François Fillon. @Louiq XIV Damn,you Strasbourgeois !
> 
> View attachment 389229
> 
> 
> BTW,it's not the only French politicial who was floured. We had Hollande.
> 
> View attachment 389230
> 
> 
> Oh and it's not the first time a politician is floured in Strasbourg. There was also Valls some months ago.
> 
> View attachment 389233
> 
> 
> Not easy being a French politician. Between those being egged,floured,'pied'....



Wish this happened more around the world haha.

Would love to see some pie, eggs and flour etc...on both Trump and Hillary hehehe just to see how they took it.

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## Mage

66% Fillon 58% Le Pen

Hmm.....I feel so far right atm

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## Vergennes

Indeed anything can happen,and anyone's victory will be a surprise. Depends also on the turnout and the high percentage of undecided people who will decide at the last minute for who their vote will go. 

*Does the French presidential election hold one last shock?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170407/does-the-french-election-hold-one-last-shock

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## Nilgiri

Philia said:


> 66% Fillon 58% Le Pen
> 
> Hmm.....I feel so far right atm



What was your commie support looking like (Arthaud)?



Vergennes said:


> Indeed anything can happen,and anyone's victory will be a surprise. Depends also on the turnout and the high percentage of undecided people who will decide at the last minute for who their vote will go.
> 
> *Does the French presidential election hold one last shock?*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170407/does-the-french-election-hold-one-last-shock



I didn't know Macron is pretty left of centre as shown in the quiz. I thought he was more centrist than that.

Really rotten that Fillon had this controversy, I thought France needed to be balanced so cycle can continue more gently.

What is Macron position on immigration btw? (its really the only thing of real importance for me)

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## Mage

Nilgiri said:


> What was your commie support looking like (Arthaud)?
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't know Macron is pretty left of centre as shown in the quiz. I thought he was more centrist than that.
> 
> Really rotten that Fillon had this controversy, I thought France needed to be balanced so cycle can continue more gently.
> 
> What is Macron position on immigration btw? (its really the only thing of real importance for me)


Don't remember. 


Macron supports open door policy of Merkel. Afaik he's open to more immigration and taking in more refugees.

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> What was your commie support looking like (Arthaud)?
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't know Macron is pretty left of centre as shown in the quiz. I thought he was more centrist than that.
> 
> Really rotten that Fillon had this controversy, I thought France needed to be balanced so cycle can continue more gently.
> 
> What is Macron position on immigration btw? (its really the only thing of real importance for me)



Well,he himself say he's neither right or left. Depends on his policies,can be right or left,center-right,center-left. 

As for immigration,if you understand French enough ---> https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/immigration-et-asile

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## Vergennes

*French presidential campaign tightening in final weeks, polls show*

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN1792F5

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## Mage

Melenchon is scoring like 18-19% in the latest polls......that's as good as Fillon

And both Macron and Le Pen's numbers have fallen behind 25%.

I don't know what to think if Melenchon goes to second round. That's fucking hilarious


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Melenchon is scoring like 18-19% in the latest polls......that's as good as Fillon
> 
> And both Macron and Le Pen's numbers have fallen behind 25%.
> 
> I don't know what to think if Melenchon goes to second round. That's fucking hilarious



Polls of course must be taken with a pinch of salt,with a large part of the voters still undecided and those that will finally change their minds inside the polling stations. (very possible)

As for Melenchon,even in 2012 several weeks before the election,he surged in the polls,not only to finally get 11% of the votes.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Polls of course must be taken with a pinch of salt,with a large part of the voters still undecided and those that will finally change their minds inside the polling stations. (very possible)
> 
> As for Melenchon,even in 2012 several weeks before the election,he surged in the polls,not only to finally get 11% of the votes.



They will "mostly" be a Melonchon+Hamon+ Left parties bf the vote.
Melonchon around 18% - Hamon around 8-9% - other left around 2-3%
You'll get around 25-29%.

Meaning Fillion is out, so who are they going to vote for? Macron? Lepen?
or keep voting for Fillion?

If Fillion retire himself:
- 1/3 LR voters to Macron
-2/3 to Lepen.

So the left even tho' under one Banner, their chance to pass is low...

Ps: if things stay that way, no more problems/affairs or whatever.

One thing, if we still see Melonchon going up, while Hamon staying at the same % then it means Melonchon is getting more and more those who didn't choosed to vote at the first place and/or few workers voters from FN


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## HannibalBarca

New Poll

Melonchon first ever ahead of Fillion.

If Lepen is not in Second round... THen it will be a Melonchon vs Macron... and It's almost win for Melonchon... Why? Lepen voters will mostly vote for Melonchon.


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## Nilgiri

Are there some final round "head to head" polls out there?


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## Vergennes

*Official campaign begins for French Presidential election*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170410/official-campaign-begins-for-french-presidential-election

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## Vergennes

* In ‘forgotten France’, Le Pen’s young backers say only she cares for them *

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/09/forgotten-france-marine-le-pen-president


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## LA se Karachi

*Latest polling averages:*







_https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/ _

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## Mage

HannibalBarca said:


> If Lepen is not in Second round... THen it will be a Melonchon vs Macron... and It's almost win for Melonchon... Why? Lepen voters will mostly vote for Melonchon.


This is retarded......

Anyway according to most of the polls Le Pen still leads Macron by 0.5-1 point. Fillon and Melenchon are battling for 3rd spot......most polls say Fillon narrowly ahead by 0.5-1 point.

Le Pen is still the safest bet to go to the second round.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> *Latest polling averages:*
> 
> View attachment 390193
> 
> 
> _https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/ _





Philia said:


> This is retarded......
> 
> Anyway according to most of the polls Le Pen still leads Macron by 0.5-1 point. Fillon and Melenchon are battling for 3rd spot......most polls say Fillon narrowly ahead by 0.5-1 point.
> 
> Le Pen is still the safest bet to go to the second round.



I really hope Mélenchon's surge in polls is just hype and nothing will really materialize the day of the votes. He also surged days before the elections and finally got way less than he was given by the polls.

I hope my fellow citizens are not crazy enough to elect a communist in disguize who will lead France to ruins,with an unrealistic project that will see spendings hikes of €270bn and nearly €120bn of increase of taxes when France is already among the most taxed country and people have enough of paying so much taxes. This guy will make flee the foreign groups and the foreign investments,will make flee the rich who will invest their money elsewhere...

Sorry,but I hardly believe the French,after 5 years of Hollandia turned far left-nearly communists.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> I really hope Mélenchon's surge in polls is just hype and nothing will really materialize the day of the votes. He also surged days before the elections and finally got way less than he was given by the polls.




Mélenchon vs. Le Pen would be terrible...

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Mélenchon vs. Le Pen would be terrible...



The far right Marine Le Pen vs the far left version of MLP. Nothing worse could ever happen. Be sure that on the 7th of May,I would go visiting a park or a zoo,something like that,rather than wasting my time in a polling station for choosing one of the two.

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> I really hope Mélenchon's surge in polls is just hype and nothing will really materialize the day of the votes. He also surged days before the elections and finally got way less than he was given by the polls.
> 
> I hope my fellow citizens are not crazy enough to elect a communist in disguize who will lead France to ruins,with an unrealistic project that will see spendings hikes of €270bn and nearly €120bn of increase of taxes when France is already among the most taxed country and people have enough of paying so much taxes. This guy will make flee the foreign groups and the foreign investments,will make flee the rich who will invest their money elsewhere...
> 
> Sorry,but I hardly believe the French,after 5 years of Hollandia turned far left-nearly communists.


The only way Melenchon can get to the second round is Hamon retires and backs Melenchon. This way he might even Beat Le Pen in the finals. But chance of this happening is very very low. 

Although I read Melenchon has been outstanding in the debates. Can you tell how did the debates go so far? And how much impact they had on the voters?

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## HannibalBarca

Philia said:


> This is retarded......
> 
> Anyway according to most of the polls Le Pen still leads Macron by 0.5-1 point. Fillon and Melenchon are battling for 3rd spot......most polls say Fillon narrowly ahead by 0.5-1 point.
> 
> Le Pen is still the safest bet to go to the second round.


As you may see iI used "IF"...


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## Mage

HannibalBarca said:


> As you may see iI used "IF"...


And all I posted was my reaction to this post. Nothing directed at you. I started with "This" not "You"


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> The only way Melenchon can get to the second round is Hamon retires and backs Melenchon. This way he might even Beat Le Pen in the finals. But chance of this happening is very very low.
> 
> Although I read Melenchon has been outstanding in the debates. Can you tell how did the debates go so far? And how much impact they had on the voters?



Despite the two debates,the number of undecisive people still remains stable,at 40%. This is the first time the number of undecisive voters is so high just days before the first round. The debates didn't seem to change the situation,and those voters will be the one allowing any of the main candidates to get to the second round,the reason they are 'hunting' them and trying to convince them. 

With many who will choose who they'll vote for at the last minute or those that will also change their thoughts at the last minute,this election is nearly unpredictable. There might be surprises.

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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi @Philia @Taygibay

*'I just can't choose': French abstainers, undecideds alarm presidential hopefuls*

*Pensioner Jeannine Delaplane, care-worker Cecile Lungeri, and millions like them are giving French presidential candidates and pollsters nightmares.*

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-abstention-analysis-idUKKBN17F15C

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @LA se Karachi @Philia @Taygibay
> 
> *'I just can't choose': French abstainers, undecideds alarm presidential hopefuls*
> 
> *Pensioner Jeannine Delaplane, care-worker Cecile Lungeri, and millions like them are giving French presidential candidates and pollsters nightmares.*
> 
> http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-abstention-analysis-idUKKBN17F15C



The Q is... WHo gonna get those votes...

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> @LA se Karachi @Philia @Taygibay
> 
> *'I just can't choose': French abstainers, undecideds alarm presidential hopefuls*
> 
> *Pensioner Jeannine Delaplane, care-worker Cecile Lungeri, and millions like them are giving French presidential candidates and pollsters nightmares.*
> 
> http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-abstention-analysis-idUKKBN17F15C




Some of those who abstain from voting may regret it if only the candidates they hate make it to the second round.

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## TankMan

Desert Fox said:


> I hate Capitalism just as much as i hate Socialism (Marxist Socialism and its various derivatives, to be specific).


What do you support then? Being a 'centrist' these days just means supporting Capitalism.

I am not a Marxist - his materialism and views on religion were certainly misguided. But he had a point when it came to his critique of Capitalism. Same with Lenin.

I support what can be called 'Islamic Economics', but it's much easier to refer to it as 'Interest-free non-Materialistic Market Socialism' lest I incur the wrath of the ubiquitous Internet Secular Atheist Brigade.


Desert Fox said:


> Usually by "Socialism" most people imply Marxist Socialism in most cases nowadays at least anyway. The irony of it all is that the formulators of Marxism (or Communism or socialism, whichever name you prefer) were Capitalist Jews , which explains why Marxism/socialism never worked and never will work. Though it has only worked in the mass starvation of the very workers it claims to be the savior of (that alone says a lot about the founders of such a vile ideology) .


Marx was barely a Jew. He did not identify himself as a Jew, or practice Judaism; he was an atheist. But that is irrelevant.

What do you think 'socialism', or 'marxist socialism' actually means? It simply means that whoever works gets the full value of his produce, instead of all the profits going to a small subset of the population simply because they 'own' the factory/shop/farm.

There is a massive misconception as to what Socialism actually means - most people think it means "the Government owns everything". That's really not what it means. It means the workers control the means of production. If the workers don't control the means of production, that's not Socialism.



Desert Fox said:


> One does not need an argument to prove Communism is a failure. It has already proven that on its own over and over again.
> 
> View attachment 386490​@Psychic @Nilgiri @The Sandman


Really? Engels' family wasn't really that wealthy and Marx had several jobs working for various newspapers - but that is completely irrelevant - what is relevant is what he actually said.

Have you ever thought *why *he was considered to be a great economic thinker? Because he had a point. He had several points. His critique of Capitalism remains valid to this day. The inherent contradictions of Capitalism are very real and very tangible - that's why there's some sort of recession or depression every few years. That's why the USA has been at war for 90% of its existence.

The Soviet Union collapsed because it had turned into a State-Capitalist dictatorship. And even then, they didn't fail that badly at all. 

Transforming a failing feudal state such as Tsarist Russia into a global superpower despite being invaded three times by powerful industrial nations and surviving two World Wars within a span of less than 50 years is not really a failure.

Most claims about mass starvation and the "millions, billions, trillions" that 'evil Communism' has killed tend to be exaggerated and ignorant of history. Before the October Revolution, Russians under the Tsar suffered from extreme starvation due to poor governance and WW1 only made it worse. Russia's infrastructure, aside from a few railways, was virtually nonexistent. Most incidences of starvation that are attributed to Communism would have definitely occurred under Capitalism or any other economic system under those circumstances.

There was no starvation in the Soviet Union after 1947, after they recovered from WW2.

And let me be clear - Stalinism was not socialism, it was effectively State Capitalism; and I am no fan of the Soviet Union's expansionism and 'imperialism-lite'. That is what destroyed them. 

I'd recommend the last 15 minutes of this lecture by an actual Professor of Economics and History for a much better explanation.

Oh and this article is worth reading as a summary of Iqbal's views on Socialism and the Islamic Economics I was talking about: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/gk-magazine/iqbal-karl-marx-and-socialism/90927.html


Desert Fox said:


> Even today you have wealthy Jews like Bernie Sanders duping the dumb masses into believing their false promises whilst themselves living within the safe confines of their gated upper class communities away from all of the poverty stricken drudges of society whom they claim to be champions of.


So you'd rather have a wealthy Christian (and Zionist) like Hillary Clinton duping the dumb masses into believing the false promises of Capitalism?

At least Bernie hasn't supported bombing a dozen countries and doesn't intend to bomb any either.

Besides, he is not a 'wealthy Jew' just because he bought a second home after being in public office for 35 years- the wealth of actual 'wealthy Jews' is well beyond that. 

And Bernie is barely left, never mind a full-blown socialist. He is a centrist by global standards and his positions are considered conservative in parts of Europe - his main platform is Nationalised Healthcare and Higher Education; most European countries already have that.


Desert Fox said:


> The people who push this ideology don't practice it themselves. That alone is a red flag in itself.


I see what you did there with the 'red flag' .

It is incredibly difficult to 'practice' socialism in a capitalist system. It's not some kind of religion. Many people actually do practice some of its principles; ever heard of worker co-ops? They're getting quite popular in Spain and South America. And many otherwise capitalist countries have incorporated Socialist principles - Britain and most of Europe has a National Health Service, funded by everyone, used by everyone.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> *Latest polling averages:*
> 
> View attachment 390193
> 
> 
> _https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/ _



I've read this on internet ;

*



The "hidden voters"

Click to expand...

*


> There has been a lot of talk in this election about the "hidden vote" (le vote caché), meaning people who have not revealed their true intentions to the pollsters or more to the point not even to themselves.
> 
> And Fillon's team is convinced that many of their actual voters aren't saying it out loud, presumably because they don't want to be associated with a scandal-ridden candidate.
> 
> "People don't necessarily want to say that they're going to vote for Fillon, even if it's a sure thing," Republican MP Valérie Boyer told BFM TV recently.
> 
> Ifop Pollster Jerome Fourquet, who joined joined Lecerf and Opinion Way's Frédéric Micheau for a grilling by the Anglo American Press Association of Paris, said Fillon could benefit from an "army of reserves who will reveal themselves at the last minute".
> 
> So who are these hidden voters? And do they actually exist? Who knows.
> 
> But come election day, Fillon's team is convinced that his result will not reflect the current polls.
> 
> There are two problems with the hidden vote theory, however. One is that Le Pen voters might have the same approach (too scared to admit it but will vote anyway), and the other is that polling companies say it's not rare that people lie in the polls, especially now it's possible to do so anonymously online.



I've also read that the margin of error of those polls is between 1,5 and 4 points,that is huge.

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## Vergennes

*French presidential elections: 'We certainly can expect a surprise' *

http://www.dw.com/en/french-presidential-elections-we-certainly-can-expect-a-surprise/a-38423475

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *French presidential elections: 'We certainly can expect a surprise' *
> 
> http://www.dw.com/en/french-presidential-elections-we-certainly-can-expect-a-surprise/a-38423475



Lassalle Président... Our suprise of the day...or not...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Lassalle Président... Our suprise of the day...or not...



Probably the most honest of the candidates. At least,we cannot say he's lying like the others.

http://www.europe1.fr/politique/jean-lassalle-ils-vont-tous-vous-b-votez-pour-moi-3221948
-
I've got the feeling that Fillon could still make it to the second round,that Macron is also overrated in the polls and could get way less than he's given to earn. Marine Le Pen could also be underrated. Hamon is already out of the race,it will depend on how much Mélenchon will get,keeping in mind that he was always overrated during Presidential elections.

What do you think ? @Louiq XIV @Taygibay


----------



## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> Probably the most honest of the candidates. At least,we cannot say he's lying like the others.
> 
> http://www.europe1.fr/politique/jean-lassalle-ils-vont-tous-vous-b-votez-pour-moi-3221948
> -
> I've got the feeling that Fillon could still make it to the second round,that Macron is also overrated in the polls and could get way less than he's given to earn. Marine Le Pen could also be underrated. Hamon is already out of the race,it will depend on how much Mélenchon will get,keeping in mind that he was always overrated during Presidential elections.
> 
> What do you think ? @Louiq XIV @Taygibay



You still have hope for Fillon but I don't see how he could make it to the second round. My bet is on Le Pen & Macron but you may be right as I frequently fail my predictions

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## Desert Fox

TankMan said:


> What do you support then? Being a 'centrist' these days just means supporting Capitalism.
> 
> I am not a Marxist - his materialism and views on religion were certainly misguided. But he had a point when it came to his critique of Capitalism. Same with Lenin.
> 
> I support what can be called 'Islamic Economics', but it's much easier to refer to it as 'Interest-free non-Materialistic Market Socialism' lest I incur the wrath of the ubiquitous Internet Secular Atheist Brigade.


I guess i support some form of "socialism". Though i hate using the term "socialism" because really Islam already addressed the issue of wealth inequality long before the West's post-industrial "socialism".



TankMan said:


> Marx was barely a Jew. He did not identify himself as a Jew, or practice Judaism; he was an atheist. But that is irrelevant.


One can be an Atheist Jew since Jews believe that blood (maternal lineage to be specific) defines one to be a Jew. Case in point the Israeli blood test necessary to prove one's Jewish ancestry (again from paternal lineage) in order to obtain israeli citizenship.

I knew a half Italian-Polish Jew boy, eventhough he was officially catholic his Jewish side still recognized him as a Jew because his mother was a Polish Jew.



TankMan said:


> What do you think 'socialism', or 'marxist socialism' actually means? It simply means that whoever works gets the full value of his produce, instead of all the profits going to a small subset of the population simply because they 'own' the factory/shop/farm.


Hmm. Well from what i recall that's not how Marx puts it in the Communist Manifesto. What you stated is basically Capitalism because you keep what you earn from your labor, *but not all labor is equal*. A heart surgeon's job is not of equal value as that of someone who's a street fruit vendor. So i suppose you don't support Marx's theory of "equal wealth distribution", based on what you have stated here?

Because as you said you get to keep the full value of your labor and society naturally values a heart surgeon's work more than that of a school janitor due to greater complication of the former's profession and the greater risk involved (saving lives) and thus the higher amount of qualifications required to do that job compared to the latter, thus earning the former more than the latter. But in a Communist society as envisioned by Marx both would get equal pay. After all only equal distribution of wealth in Communism and in real life you need a powerful government to ensure this equal distribution because otherwise individuals on their own will begin to establish a hierarchy with un-equal distribution of wealth based on the value of the work.



TankMan said:


> There is a massive misconception as to what Socialism actually means - most people think it means "the Government owns everything". That's really not what it means. It means the workers control the means of production. If the workers don't control the means of production, that's not Socialism.


Clearly in every Marxist state that has existed the government DID own everything. Perhaps because Marx's theories are not practical. Fact is in real life you need an equalizer in the form of a powerful government. People don't just distribute things equally among complete strangers of their own free will because we are naturally tribalistic and thus require a neutral equalizer in the form of government. This is especially true in societies where there is no spiritual incentive like religion, and Communism denies religion and God. Big difference between Marxism in theory and Marxism in practice.

It sounds all hunky dory in theory.


TankMan said:


> Really? Engels' family wasn't really that wealthy and Marx had several jobs working for various newspapers - but that is completely irrelevant - what is relevant is what he actually said.


No, it is VERY relevant. Imagine a morbidly obese person selling his latest belly fat burning exercise technique. Any sane individual with an average IQ will recognize the fraudster for what he is. But Communism is basically like this but on a more complicated level which is why it dupes the ignorant masses.

Now coming to Marx and Engels, both of whom lived pampered lives and never worked a day in a factory somehow know whats good for the working class. I guess that is why Communism has been such a failure. It's like a school janitor writing a manual for heart surgeons.



TankMan said:


> Have you ever thought *why *he was considered to be a great economic thinker? Because he had a point. He had several points. His critique of Capitalism remains valid to this day. The inherent contradictions of Capitalism are very real and very tangible - that's why there's some sort of recession or depression every few years. That's why the USA has been at war for 90% of its existence.


Marx wasn't the only one nor the first one to criticize Capitalism. And he is only considered to be a "great" economic "thinker" because Western academia and universities are mainly run by leftists who worship him.



TankMan said:


> The Soviet Union collapsed because it had turned into a State-Capitalist dictatorship. And even then, they didn't fail that badly at all.


They turned into a state-capitalist dictatorship precisely because theoretical Communism is not practical. In all Communist states hierarchies formed and hierarchies by their nature are un-equal. Funny how Stalin was sitting back in his comfy villa while millions of Russians lived in their shabby isbas and workers quarters. Whatever happened to "dictatorship of the proletariat"? More like Dictatorship of a crook-turned-unofficial King (Stalin was living like a king with his *private* villa, *private* train, *private* bunker, *private* plane).

The fact that a convicted bank robber (Stalin) and his gang of budding crooks (Lenin, Trotsky, and the rest) managed to take the reins of a massive country like the Russian Empire, through Communism, says allot about Communism and its original founders.



TankMan said:


> Transforming a failing feudal state such as Tsarist Russia into a global superpower despite being invaded three times by powerful industrial nations and surviving two World Wars within a span of less than 50 years is not really a failure.


 And Stalin was only able to transform the soviet union into an industrialized superpower through state-capitalism (are you now implying Capitalism is good?). Confiscating through forced collectivization and then auctioning off Russian national resources to Western Capitalists like Henry Ford and other American Capitalist companies in exchange for factories and military wares. Like i said, Communism is a blueprint for crooks to take over societies.



TankMan said:


> Most claims about mass starvation and the "millions, billions, trillions" that 'evil Communism' has killed tend to be exaggerated and ignorant of history. Before the October Revolution, Russians under the Tsar suffered from extreme starvation due to poor governance and WW1 only made it worse. Russia's infrastructure, aside from a few railways, was virtually nonexistent. Most incidences of starvation that are attributed to Communism would have definitely occurred under Capitalism or any other economic system under those circumstances.


I did not watch the video as i am short on time but i will say this: Where ever Communism established itself All of the people's of those nations gladly threw off the chains of Communism when they got the opportunity. I wonder why they would do that if they were living in Marx's utopia? Or perhaps Marx's utopia turned out to be hell on earth.

Sure, people did starve under the Czar during WW1. Things got tough. It was a war after all. And the Bolsheviks, like the crooks that they were used that as an opportunity to channel the legitimate frustrations of the people for their own nefarious agenda.

They did not have Russia's nor the Russian people's interests at heart which is why they sold off considerable Russian territory to the Central Powers in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Bolsheviks were opportunistic criminals of the worst kind. At least the Czar was a son of the soil. Bolsheviks were foreign agents inserted to undermine Russia.









TankMan said:


> And let me be clear - Stalinism was not socialism, it was effectively State Capitalism; and I am no fan of the Soviet Union's expansionism and 'imperialism-lite'. That is what destroyed them.


Agreed.



TankMan said:


> I'd recommend the last 15 minutes of this lecture by an actual Professor of Economics and History for a much better explanation.
> 
> Oh and this article is worth reading as a summary of Iqbal's views on Socialism and the Islamic Economics I was talking about: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/gk-magazine/iqbal-karl-marx-and-socialism/90927.html


Thanks. Will check those out when i have the time.



TankMan said:


> So you'd rather have a wealthy Christian (and Zionist) like Hillary Clinton duping the dumb masses into believing the false promises of Capitalism?


Bernie endorsed Hillary, to the disappointment of his supporters. And No, actually i was against Hillary. Rooted for Trump because of his anti-NeoCon rhetoric and Nationalist message, but im disappointed in him for attacking Syria with the missile strikes. It seems the NeoCons (Neo-Cohens more like it) subverted Trump's administration and are itching for a war with Russia.




TankMan said:


> At least Bernie hasn't supported bombing a dozen countries and doesn't intend to bomb any either.


He certainly endorsed Hillary much to the dismay of his supporters, despite having promised them he would take the fight to the DNC on their behalf but then chickened out even after it was discovered he was cheated by the DNC in favor of Hillary. That is cowardice.

Also, Bernie has family living in israel and he even justified israeli strikes on Gaza in 2014 as long as they only targeted Hamas. Sure he condemned the indiscriminate bombings of Gaza, but he was not against the fact that Israel was defending itself against alleged Hamas rocket attacks. Of course, i don't blame Bernie, he is a Jew with family in Israel. He gotta look out for his relatives who are residing on land confiscated from Palestinians only some 69 years ago. Can i blame Jews for looking out for their ethnic interests. No i cannot.



TankMan said:


> Besides, he is not a 'wealthy Jew' just because he bought a second home after being in public office for 35 years- the wealth of actual 'wealthy Jews' is well beyond that.


Right, man, buying a more than half a million dollar lake-front vacation home besides the one he already owns is not wealthy. You my friend must be a trillionaire if that's considered "not wealthy" according to you when the fact is most of the people who supported Bernie are living paycheck-to-paycheck, many are even homeless.

We have people struggling to pay off mortgages for single homes, student loans, and even apartment rents yet this guy who champions Socialism buys a second $600,000 lakefront vacation home in Vermont. And that after his campaign collected more than $200,000,000 from his support base during the election race, none of which has been returned back to those who donated. All because he promised free stuff during his election campaign 

God, sometimes i wonder i should run as a Socialist and con all of the gullible morons after promising as much free stuff as possible. I can easily scrape a good $50,000,000 at least and be set for the rest of my life  .



TankMan said:


> And Bernie is barely left, never mind a full-blown socialist. He is a centrist by global standards and his positions are considered conservative in parts of Europe - his main platform is Nationalised Healthcare and Higher Education; most European countries already have that.



If im correct he was a Communist in the past but changed his political position a few times since but nevertheless remained on the left of the political spectrum.



TankMan said:


> I see what you did there with the 'red flag' .


Honestly, that was completely unintentional. Even i just got it  . Should've have left no pun intended.



TankMan said:


> It is incredibly difficult to 'practice' socialism in a capitalist system. It's not some kind of religion. Many people actually do practice some of its principles; ever heard of worker co-ops? They're getting quite popular in Spain and South America. And many otherwise capitalist countries have incorporated Socialist principles - Britain and most of Europe has a National Health Service, funded by everyone, used by everyone.


I agree, and im no fan of unrestricted Capitalism. I believe Capitalism has its merits provided certain destructive aspects of it are removed. Same thing with "Socialism". And honestly like i said i hate using these terms as they restrict positive elements to the specific ideology and because Islam already addresses all of these issues. You should be allowed to keep the fruits of your labor provided your labor doesn't bring harm to your fellow human beings or the environment, and one can incorporate incentives to encourage productive elements of society to utilize their talents to benefit humanity thus including positive elements of socialism and capitalism. Interestingly you will find such an outlook in Fascism and National Socialism, both of which considered themselves as Third Position Ideologies in between Capitalism and Communism.

@Psychic @Nilgiri @AUSTERLITZ @The Sandman

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## LA se Karachi

Desert Fox said:


> Bernie endorsed Hillary, to the disappointment of his supporters.





Desert Fox said:


> He certainly endorsed Hillary much to the dismay of his supporters, despite having promised them he would take the fight to the DNC on their behalf but then chickened out even after it was discovered he was cheated by the DNC in favor of Hillary. That is cowardice.




Your stupidity never ends, does it? Most of Bernie's supporters, who showed up at the polls, _voted for Hillary_.

He made it very clear from the beginning of his campaign that he hated Trump/his policies, and would do anything to help oppose him, including endorsing Hillary. Bernie is on the opposite side of the political spectrum when compared to Trump, after all. He said he would endorse the eventual Democratic nominee (even if it wasn't himself) multiple times throughout the campaign. Anything was better than Trump for Bernie. Sorry you never paid attention to what he actually said, but that's your fault.

I find it funny, and little pathetic at the same time, that some deranged Trump supporter is talking about Bernie supporters. I am one. Most of us hate Trump, and greatly preferred Hillary to him. Tell yourself whatever nonsense you want, but it will not change the truth.



Desert Fox said:


> Right, man, buying a more than half a million dollar lake-front vacation home besides the one he already owns is not wealthy. You my friend must be a trillionaire if that's considered "not wealthy" according to you when the fact is most of the people who supported Bernie are living paycheck-to-paycheck, many are even homeless.




Well, no matter what, Bernie is not a multi-millionaire or billionaire, like Trump.

Most of Bernie's supporters were not poor. He did do very well with White working-class Democrats and independents, but his supporters came from many different backgrounds. And the biggest dividing factor in the Democratic Primary was age, not income.



Desert Fox said:


> We have people struggling to pay off mortgages for single homes, student loans, and even apartment rents yet this guy who champions Socialism buys a second $600,000 lakefront vacation home in Vermont.




Clearly you still don't understand what _Democratic__-Socialism_ is. Perhaps you're simply not capable of it. You keep repeating the same false nonsense over and over again, even on unrelated threads.

Democratic-Socialism (what Bernie believes in) is very common across Europe. It's not pure socialism and is rooted in the free market:
_
"Ever since Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy, much attention has been focused on the fact he calls himself a democratic socialist. Socialist, in the American lexicon, has a negative connotation, mainly because of common misunderstandings.

Sanders himself has tried many times to explain the difference between “socialism” and “democratic socialism,” but the right still seems hung up on misrepresenting his views and exploiting people’s fears. America has a rich socialist history many people are unaware of, but still fear the “S” word and picture evil dictators and red flags."_

_"*3. It Is Not A Replacement For Capitalism*

True socialism would replace the capitalist economy we live in now and replace it fully with a socialist one. While this is the dream of Marxists and socialists everywhere, this is not the plan under democratic socialism. Democratic socialism would instead put more restrictions on corporations and owners. This would include limitations on how much more money a CEO can make compared to their employees, and granting employees more rights and higher minimum wage.

*4. It Is Not The Same As Regular Socialism*

Democratic socialists have historically rejected the belief that the economy should be centrally planned (a centrally-planned economy is a socialist keystone belief). Instead, democratic socialism believes that some parts of society may be better if they are democratically planned: mass transit, medical care, minimum wage, etc. Democratic socialism still believes the capitalist market is best for consumer goods and services."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-arel/5-ways-democratic-sociali_b_8876476.html_



Desert Fox said:


> If im correct he was a Communist in the past but changed his political position a few times since but nevertheless remained on the left of the political spectrum.




He was never a Communist, but he was a bit farther left earlier in his career.



Desert Fox said:


> Also, Bernie has family living in israel and he even justified israeli strikes on Gaza in 2014 as long as they only targeted Hamas. Sure he condemned the indiscriminate bombings of Gaza, but he was not against the fact that Israel was defending itself against alleged Hamas rocket attacks. Of course, i don't blame Bernie, he is a Jew with family in Israel. He gotta look out for his relatives who are residing on land confiscated from Palestinians only some 69 years ago. Can i blame Jews for looking out for their ethnic interests. No i cannot.




Misleading:

_"Bernie Sanders is taking a sledgehammer to the political status quo on Israel.

*Sanders refused to back down Thursday night from his claim that Israel in 2014 used "disproportionate" force to respond to Hamas rocket fire from Gaza while calling for the United States to stop being "one-sided" in the conflict there.* In doing so, he upended a long-standing tenet of American politics: that unflinching support for Israel is non-negotiable."

"However, it is far from clear what political costs, if any, Sanders will face from his outspokenness, which also included him stating that "we are going to have to treat the Palestinian people with respect and dignity" and "we are going to have to say that Netanyahu is not right all of the time."

"He not only defended his remarks about the "disproportionate" military response but challenged Clinton to address the claim directly.

"You evaded the question," Sanders told Clinton, pushing her to defend Israel's actions. He also took her to task for not addressing the Palestinians' plight at greater length during her recent speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of the country's largest pro-Israel lobbies."_

_http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/16/politics/bernie-sanders-israel-democratic-politics/_



Desert Fox said:


> And that after his campaign collected more than $200,000,000 from his support base during the election race, none of which has been returned back to those who donated.


*
He spent almost all the money on his campaign.*

Please look through the FEC filings his campaign made. He spent the money on legitimate campaign expenses, and the FEC oversaw all of it.





_http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?tabIndex=1&candidateCommitteeId=C00577130_



Desert Fox said:


> All because he promised free stuff during his election campaign




Asking for a living wage, income growth that doesn't go almost entirely to the wealthiest, and implementing regulations in the financial sector to help protect from asset bubbles/economic recessions/financial institutions that prey on the working class, are not "free stuff".

In fact, the more people in the working and middle classes benefit, the more and more people become ineligible for welfare, and the less "free stuff" they get.



Desert Fox said:


> God, sometimes i wonder i should run as a Socialist and con all of the gullible morons after promising as much free stuff as possible. I can easily scrape a good $50,000,000 at least and be set for the rest of my life  .




Yes, please do. And when the Federal Government throws you in jail, I will be most happy.  


_"As Bob Biersack from the Federal Election Commission points out, most candidates don’t have much left over to begin with. *Campaigning is expensive, and “leftover” money gets used for bills and debts first*, including expenses incurred while winding down an abandoned campaign or a lost political office.

Candidates do sometimes end up with surplus funds, though, particularly if they’re incumbent members of Congress who decide not to run for another term. State and local governments have their own rules, but *those running for federal office – including presidential candidates – must abide by strict FEC guidelines when it comes to their extra campaign money.* They can donate an unlimited amount to a charity or political party. They can also, within limits, make contributions directly to other candidates. A campaign committee can give up to $2,000 per election to each candidate. If the committee is converted into a political action committee, the limit jumps to $5,000 – but to be established as a PAC, the committee would have to be in existence for six months, receive contributions from 50 donors, and make contributions to five recipients.
_
*What candidates can’t do with leftover money is use it for personal expenses. Retiring federal lawmakers used to be able to pocket extra cash and use it for cars, vacations, clothes, pet grooming, whatever – but that changed in 1989 with the passage of the Ethics Reform Act.*

_ — Jess Henig

Federal Election Commission. "Permissible non-campaign use of funds." Code of Federal Regulations. 1 Jan. 2007."_

_http://www.factcheck.org/2008/11/personal-use-of-campaign-money/_

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## Taygibay

Desert Fox said:


> ...but he was not against the fact that Israel was defending itself against alleged Hamas rocket attacks.



Of course not! I'm very opposed to Israel's greater plan
of temporizing until Palestine has been absorbed but I
also have to allow for that nation defending itself.

Replace Israel with Pakistan and Hamas with India in
that sentence just for fun and see how wrong it is.
... he was not against the fact that Pakistan was defending itself against alleged Indian rocket attacks.
Of course not! It is the right of a free nation to defend itself.​
Fervor is all nice until it leads one to oppose fairness.

Besides, while following this exchange of yours with
LAseKarachi with some interest, the link between long
exposes on Marx and Bernie ( sounds like a comic duo
or an ice cream brand ) and the French 2017 elections
is getting tenuous to the breaking point, ...off-topic_ish_?

Just to help recenter this debate a tad, here's a funny 
story on the date of our elections. By selecting late April
for the first round, it is possible to avoid a conjunction ...
with Easter! The Christian Pâques has April 25th as its
latest limit which happens only 4,000 times every 5,700,000 years!
The next time it does will be in 2038.

This means a mandatory Sunday can almost always be
found after the quintessential Christian holiday for voting.

The funny thing is not that a socio-historic value of religious
origin would be computed in but that this rule is as simple
as last Sunday of April versus the ultra complex computation
required to create the date of Easter. Then, one can remember
that this complexity had the aim of making it impossible or
almost for the Pâques to be on the same day as the Jewish &
assorted heretic versions ones.

Since Issa was/is all inclusive, it is funny that a couple centuries
only saw his main following so intent on isolating itself and how
easily a very secular government sidestepped it back to universal.

I'm of half a mind of writing to this inclusive Pope and suggesting that Easter be set hence on the Sunday before the French elections.
Or penultimate Sunday of April to allow yearly Pâques as we don't change presidents so often ... although many wished we had last time.

And a great day to you and yours, Tay.

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## Vergennes

*Here's what's happening in the French election campaigns*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170416/heres-whats-happening-in-the-french-election-campaigns

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## Mage

Desert Fox said:


> I guess i support some form of "socialism". Though i hate using the term "socialism" because really Islam already addressed the issue of wealth inequality long before the West's post-industrial "socialism".
> 
> 
> One can be an Atheist Jew since Jews believe that blood (maternal lineage to be specific) defines one to be a Jew. Case in point the Israeli blood test necessary to prove one's Jewish ancestry (again from paternal lineage) in order to obtain israeli citizenship.
> 
> I knew a half Italian-Polish Jew boy, eventhough he was officially catholic his Jewish side still recognized him as a Jew because his mother was a Polish Jew.
> 
> 
> Hmm. Well from what i recall that's not how Marx puts it in the Communist Manifesto. What you stated is basically Capitalism because you keep what you earn from your labor, *but not all labor is equal*. A heart surgeon's job is not of equal value as that of someone who's a street fruit vendor. So i suppose you don't support Marx's theory of "equal wealth distribution", based on what you have stated here?
> 
> Because as you said you get to keep the full value of your labor and society naturally values a heart surgeon's work more than that of a school janitor due to greater complication of the former's profession and the greater risk involved (saving lives) and thus the higher amount of qualifications required to do that job compared to the latter, thus earning the former more than the latter. But in a Communist society as envisioned by Marx both would get equal pay. After all only equal distribution of wealth in Communism and in real life you need a powerful government to ensure this equal distribution because otherwise individuals on their own will begin to establish a hierarchy with un-equal distribution of wealth based on the value of the work.
> 
> 
> Clearly in every Marxist state that has existed the government DID own everything. Perhaps because Marx's theories are not practical. Fact is in real life you need an equalizer in the form of a powerful government. People don't just distribute things equally among complete strangers of their own free will because we are naturally tribalistic and thus require a neutral equalizer in the form of government. This is especially true in societies where there is no spiritual incentive like religion, and Communism denies religion and God. Big difference between Marxism in theory and Marxism in practice.
> 
> It sounds all hunky dory in theory.
> 
> No, it is VERY relevant. Imagine a morbidly obese person selling his latest belly fat burning exercise technique. Any sane individual with an average IQ will recognize the fraudster for what he is. But Communism is basically like this but on a more complicated level which is why it dupes the ignorant masses.
> 
> Now coming to Marx and Engels, both of whom lived pampered lives and never worked a day in a factory somehow know whats good for the working class. I guess that is why Communism has been such a failure. It's like a school janitor writing a manual for heart surgeons.
> 
> 
> Marx wasn't the only one nor the first one to criticize Capitalism. And he is only considered to be a "great" economic "thinker" because Western academia and universities are mainly run by leftists who worship him.
> 
> 
> They turned into a state-capitalist dictatorship precisely because theoretical Communism is not practical. In all Communist states hierarchies formed and hierarchies by their nature are un-equal. Funny how Stalin was sitting back in his comfy villa while millions of Russians lived in their shabby isbas and workers quarters. Whatever happened to "dictatorship of the proletariat"? More like Dictatorship of a crook-turned-unofficial King (Stalin was living like a king with his *private* villa, *private* train, *private* bunker, *private* plane).
> 
> The fact that a convicted bank robber (Stalin) and his gang of budding crooks (Lenin, Trotsky, and the rest) managed to take the reins of a massive country like the Russian Empire, through Communism, says allot about Communism and its original founders.
> 
> 
> And Stalin was only able to transform the soviet union into an industrialized superpower through state-capitalism (are you now implying Capitalism is good?). Confiscating through forced collectivization and then auctioning off Russian national resources to Western Capitalists like Henry Ford and other American Capitalist companies in exchange for factories and military wares. Like i said, Communism is a blueprint for crooks to take over societies.
> 
> 
> I did not watch the video as i am short on time but i will say this: Where ever Communism established itself All of the people's of those nations gladly threw off the chains of Communism when they got the opportunity. I wonder why they would do that if they were living in Marx's utopia? Or perhaps Marx's utopia turned out to be hell on earth.
> 
> Sure, people did starve under the Czar during WW1. Things got tough. It was a war after all. And the Bolsheviks, like the crooks that they were used that as an opportunity to channel the legitimate frustrations of the people for their own nefarious agenda.
> 
> They did not have Russia's nor the Russian people's interests at heart which is why they sold off considerable Russian territory to the Central Powers in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Bolsheviks were opportunistic criminals of the worst kind. At least the Czar was a son of the soil. Bolsheviks were foreign agents inserted to undermine Russia.
> 
> View attachment 390974​
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed.
> 
> 
> Thanks. Will check those out when i have the time.
> 
> 
> Bernie endorsed Hillary, to the disappointment of his supporters. And No, actually i was against Hillary. Rooted for Trump because of his anti-NeoCon rhetoric and Nationalist message, but im disappointed in him for attacking Syria with the missile strikes. It seems the NeoCons (Neo-Cohens more like it) subverted Trump's administration and are itching for a war with Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> He certainly endorsed Hillary much to the dismay of his supporters, despite having promised them he would take the fight to the DNC on their behalf but then chickened out even after it was discovered he was cheated by the DNC in favor of Hillary. That is cowardice.
> 
> Also, Bernie has family living in israel and he even justified israeli strikes on Gaza in 2014 as long as they only targeted Hamas. Sure he condemned the indiscriminate bombings of Gaza, but he was not against the fact that Israel was defending itself against alleged Hamas rocket attacks. Of course, i don't blame Bernie, he is a Jew with family in Israel. He gotta look out for his relatives who are residing on land confiscated from Palestinians only some 69 years ago. Can i blame Jews for looking out for their ethnic interests. No i cannot.
> 
> 
> Right, man, buying a more than half a million dollar lake-front vacation home besides the one he already owns is not wealthy. You my friend must be a trillionaire if that's considered "not wealthy" according to you when the fact is most of the people who supported Bernie are living paycheck-to-paycheck, many are even homeless.
> 
> We have people struggling to pay off mortgages for single homes, student loans, and even apartment rents yet this guy who champions Socialism buys a second $600,000 lakefront vacation home in Vermont. And that after his campaign collected more than $200,000,000 from his support base during the election race, none of which has been returned back to those who donated. All because he promised free stuff during his election campaign
> 
> God, sometimes i wonder i should run as a Socialist and con all of the gullible morons after promising as much free stuff as possible. I can easily scrape a good $50,000,000 at least and be set for the rest of my life  .
> 
> 
> 
> If im correct he was a Communist in the past but changed his political position a few times since but nevertheless remained on the left of the political spectrum.
> 
> 
> Honestly, that was completely unintentional. Even i just got it  . Should've have left no pun intended.
> 
> 
> I agree, and im no fan of unrestricted Capitalism. I believe Capitalism has its merits provided certain destructive aspects of it are removed. Same thing with "Socialism". And honestly like i said i hate using these terms as they restrict positive elements to the specific ideology and because Islam already addresses all of these issues. You should be allowed to keep the fruits of your labor provided your labor doesn't bring harm to your fellow human beings or the environment, and one can incorporate incentives to encourage productive elements of society to utilize their talents to benefit humanity thus including positive elements of socialism and capitalism. Interestingly you will find such an outlook in Fascism and National Socialism, both of which considered themselves as Third Position Ideologies in between Capitalism and Communism.
> 
> @Psychic @Nilgiri @AUSTERLITZ @The Sandman





LA se Karachi said:


> Your stupidity never ends, does it? Most of Bernie's supporters, who showed up at the polls, _voted for Hillary_.
> 
> He made it very clear from the beginning of his campaign that he hated Trump/his policies, and would do anything to help oppose him, including endorsing Hillary. Bernie is on the opposite side of the political spectrum when compared to Trump, after all. He said he would endorse the eventual Democratic nominee (even if it wasn't himself) multiple times throughout the campaign. Anything was better than Trump for Bernie. Sorry you never paid attention to what he actually said, but that's your fault.
> 
> I find it funny, and little pathetic at the same time, that some deranged Trump supporter is talking about Bernie supporters. I am one. Most of us hate Trump, and greatly preferred Hillary to him. Tell yourself whatever nonsense you want, but it will not change the truth.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well, no matter what, Bernie is not a multi-millionaire or billionaire, like Trump.
> 
> Most of Bernie's supporters were not poor. He did do very well with White working-class Democrats and independents, but his supporters came from many different backgrounds. And the biggest dividing factor in the Democratic Primary was age, not income.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Clearly you still don't understand what _Democratic__-Socialism_ is. Perhaps you're simply not capable of it. You keep repeating the same false nonsense over and over again, even on unrelated threads.
> 
> Democratic-Socialism (what Bernie believes in) is very common across Europe. It's not pure socialism and is rooted in the free market:
> _
> "Ever since Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy, much attention has been focused on the fact he calls himself a democratic socialist. Socialist, in the American lexicon, has a negative connotation, mainly because of common misunderstandings.
> 
> Sanders himself has tried many times to explain the difference between “socialism” and “democratic socialism,” but the right still seems hung up on misrepresenting his views and exploiting people’s fears. America has a rich socialist history many people are unaware of, but still fear the “S” word and picture evil dictators and red flags."_
> 
> _"*3. It Is Not A Replacement For Capitalism*
> 
> True socialism would replace the capitalist economy we live in now and replace it fully with a socialist one. While this is the dream of Marxists and socialists everywhere, this is not the plan under democratic socialism. Democratic socialism would instead put more restrictions on corporations and owners. This would include limitations on how much more money a CEO can make compared to their employees, and granting employees more rights and higher minimum wage.
> 
> *4. It Is Not The Same As Regular Socialism*
> 
> Democratic socialists have historically rejected the belief that the economy should be centrally planned (a centrally-planned economy is a socialist keystone belief). Instead, democratic socialism believes that some parts of society may be better if they are democratically planned: mass transit, medical care, minimum wage, etc. Democratic socialism still believes the capitalist market is best for consumer goods and services."
> 
> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-arel/5-ways-democratic-sociali_b_8876476.html_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> He was never a Communist, but he was a bit farther left earlier in his career.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Misleading:
> 
> _"Bernie Sanders is taking a sledgehammer to the political status quo on Israel.
> 
> *Sanders refused to back down Thursday night from his claim that Israel in 2014 used "disproportionate" force to respond to Hamas rocket fire from Gaza while calling for the United States to stop being "one-sided" in the conflict there.* In doing so, he upended a long-standing tenet of American politics: that unflinching support for Israel is non-negotiable."
> 
> "However, it is far from clear what political costs, if any, Sanders will face from his outspokenness, which also included him stating that "we are going to have to treat the Palestinian people with respect and dignity" and "we are going to have to say that Netanyahu is not right all of the time."
> 
> "He not only defended his remarks about the "disproportionate" military response but challenged Clinton to address the claim directly.
> 
> "You evaded the question," Sanders told Clinton, pushing her to defend Israel's actions. He also took her to task for not addressing the Palestinians' plight at greater length during her recent speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of the country's largest pro-Israel lobbies."_
> 
> _http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/16/politics/bernie-sanders-israel-democratic-politics/_
> 
> 
> *
> He spent almost all the money on his campaign.*
> 
> Please look through the FEC filings his campaign made. He spent the money on legitimate campaign expenses, and the FEC oversaw all of it.
> 
> View attachment 391005
> 
> _http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?tabIndex=1&candidateCommitteeId=C00577130_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Asking for a living wage, income growth that doesn't go almost entirely to the wealthiest, and implementing regulations in the financial sector to help protect from asset bubbles/economic recessions/financial institutions that prey on the working class, are not "free stuff".
> 
> In fact, the more people in the working and middle classes benefit, the more and more people become ineligible for welfare, and the less "free stuff" they get.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, please do. And when the Federal Government throws you in jail, I will be most happy.
> 
> 
> _"As Bob Biersack from the Federal Election Commission points out, most candidates don’t have much left over to begin with. *Campaigning is expensive, and “leftover” money gets used for bills and debts first*, including expenses incurred while winding down an abandoned campaign or a lost political office.
> 
> Candidates do sometimes end up with surplus funds, though, particularly if they’re incumbent members of Congress who decide not to run for another term. State and local governments have their own rules, but *those running for federal office – including presidential candidates – must abide by strict FEC guidelines when it comes to their extra campaign money.* They can donate an unlimited amount to a charity or political party. They can also, within limits, make contributions directly to other candidates. A campaign committee can give up to $2,000 per election to each candidate. If the committee is converted into a political action committee, the limit jumps to $5,000 – but to be established as a PAC, the committee would have to be in existence for six months, receive contributions from 50 donors, and make contributions to five recipients.
> _
> *What candidates can’t do with leftover money is use it for personal expenses. Retiring federal lawmakers used to be able to pocket extra cash and use it for cars, vacations, clothes, pet grooming, whatever – but that changed in 1989 with the passage of the Ethics Reform Act.*
> 
> _ — Jess Henig
> 
> Federal Election Commission. "Permissible non-campaign use of funds." Code of Federal Regulations. 1 Jan. 2007."_
> 
> _http://www.factcheck.org/2008/11/personal-use-of-campaign-money/_





Taygibay said:


> Of course not! I'm very opposed to Israel's greater plan
> of temporizing until Palestine has been absorbed but I
> also have to allow for that nation defending itself.
> 
> Replace Israel with Pakistan and Hamas with India in
> that sentence just for fun and see how wrong it is.
> ... he was not against the fact that Pakistan was defending itself against alleged Indian rocket attacks.
> Of course not! It is the right of a free nation to defend itself.​
> Fervor is all nice until it leads one to oppose fairness.
> 
> Besides, while following this exchange of yours with
> LAseKarachi with some interest, the link between long
> exposes on Marx and Bernie ( sounds like a comic duo
> or an ice cream brand ) and the French 2017 elections
> is getting tenuous to the breaking point, ...off-topic_ish_?
> 
> Just to help recenter this debate a tad, here's a funny
> story on the date of our elections. By selecting late April
> for the first round, it is possible to avoid a conjunction ...
> with Easter! The Christian Pâques has April 25th as its
> latest limit which happens only 4,000 times every 5,700,000 years!
> The next time it does will be in 2038.
> 
> This means a mandatory Sunday can almost always be
> found after the quintessential Christian holiday for voting.
> 
> The funny thing is not that a socio-historic value of religious
> origin would be computed in but that this rule is as simple
> as last Sunday of April versus the ultra complex computation
> required to create the date of Easter. Then, one can remember
> that this complexity had the aim of making it impossible or
> almost for the Pâques to be on the same day as the Jewish &
> assorted heretic versions ones.
> 
> Since Issa was/is all inclusive, it is funny that a couple centuries
> only saw his main following so intent on isolating itself and how
> easily a very secular government sidestepped it back to universal.
> 
> I'm of half a mind of writing to this inclusive Pope and suggesting that Easter be set hence on the Sunday before the French elections.
> Or penultimate Sunday of April to allow yearly Pâques as we don't change presidents so often ... although many wished we had last time.
> 
> And a great day to you and yours, Tay.


Guys can't you take this capitalist/communist/socialist/socialist democrat/Israel/Palestine/Trump/Hillary/Bernie/Marx/Engels/Russia/Czar/Bolshevik things somewhere else? This is really off topic in this thread.

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## TankMan

Desert Fox said:


> I guess i support some form of "socialism". Though i hate using the term "socialism" because really Islam already addressed the issue of wealth inequality long before the West's post-industrial "socialism".


True, but that is very difficult to explain to people on the internet without triggering a flamewar and an assault by the Internet Atheist Brigade


Desert Fox said:


> Hmm. Well from what i recall that's not how Marx puts it in the Communist Manifesto. *What you stated is basically Capitalism* because you keep what you earn from your labor, *but not all labor is equal*. A heart surgeon's job is not of equal value as that of someone who's a street fruit vendor. So i suppose you don't support Marx's theory of* "equal wealth distribution"*, based on what you have stated here? Because as you said you get to keep the full value of your labor and society naturally values a heart surgeon's work more than that of a school janitor due to greater complication of the former's profession and the greater risk involved (saving lives) and thus the higher amount of qualifications required to do that job compared to the latter, thus earning the former more than the latter.* But in a Communist society as envisioned by Marx both would get equal pay.*


No, not really. The idea isn't that "everyone gets paid equally". That is one of those misconceptions about Communism.

Let me explain: in Capitalism, workers do not own their means of production. They have to work for people who own those means. Means of production can be farmland, a factory, a restaurant, etc. Usually, the owners do not actually produce anything, but get to keep most of the value of the workers' labour.

When a worker produces, say $100 worth of goods an hour, he actually only gets paid a fraction of that amount in the form of a salary, say $10. Where does the remaining 90$ go? To the owner, as profit. This is called the 'surplus value'. According to Marx, this is exploitation of workers, and the owner taking that surplus value is akin to theft.

Capitalism says that the owner is entitled to all that value because the means of production belong to him and he 'takes the risk', etc. But Marx said that the only reason the owner 'owns' anything is because violence is used to enforce his control over it. (nowadays in the form of the state and police enforcing the property rights; before that, feudal lords controlled land through their armies. In that way, Capitalism is basically Feudalism Plus TM)

Now consider that the owner usually has many workers working for him - the owner accumulates the wealth that his workers produce, and invests it in the form of capital. An example of capital can be buying more machines for his factory so he can hire even more workers to work for him so he can make even more profit. This is what is called 'capital accumulation' by Marxists.

And here, the whole confrontation between capital and labour that Iqbal talks about in '_mehnat-o-sarmaya_' fits in, especially nowadays with automation replacing so many jobs.

It's easier to explain this with a factory as a model, as it's much harder to quantify the value of service jobs etc, but the same principle applies to them as well.

So eventually what you have is that as productivity increases, the workers do not earn more but the owners do. Wealth keeps getting shifted upwards, and the inequality keeps increasing. This can be observed in statistics nowadays;


>



Marx predicted that if this continues, the workers will eventually be left with nothing and rise up against the owners. What he didn't account for is state-level reform for workers rights, because keep in mind he was writing this in the 1800s when conditions were much, much worse.

But there's the thing; state-level reform for workers rights hasn't really solved the core issue, it has outsourced it. Instead of paying workers full wages, companies shift their manufacturing to places where workers rights aren't as well-established so they can get away with paying sweatshop wages.

Anyway, here's how Communism was supposed to work; workers keep the full value of their labour, so wealth doesn't accumulate in the hands of a few. There is no private control of resources, so there is no need for a state, police, or military to enforce all this. And there is no currency, all resources are pooled and everyone gets as much as they need. Obviously this is a Utopian vision and brings its own problems with it (e.g who handles distribution, and all the other things you have said here)


Desert Fox said:


> Clearly in every Marxist state that has existed the government DID own everything. Perhaps because Marx's theories are not practical. Fact is in real life you need an equalizer in the form of a powerful government. People don't just distribute things equally among complete strangers of their own free will because we are naturally tribalistic and thus require a neutral equalizer in the form of government. This is especially true in societies where there is no spiritual incentive like religion, and Communism denies religion and God. Big difference between Marxism in theory and Marxism in practice.
> 
> It sounds all hunky dory in theory.


Yeah, I don't really buy the whole stateless equal society view either. Like I said, it's utopian, and too easy to turn into dystopia. But the critique of Capitalism still has merit.

Socialism, which is supposed to be a period in the transition to Communism, does have a state and currency. But workers are still supposed to control the means of production, which are controlled democratically.

In this situation, if a surgeon makes more money than a janitor, it doesn't really matter, as that surgeon isn't going to accumulate a ridiculous amount of wealth. That kind of stuff is barely a sidenote in Marxist theory.

Clearly that isn't how it worked in the USSR. Now, as Dr.Wolff says in that lecture I linked to, Stalin basically said 'this is Socialism' once he took power and proceeded to enforce a system of 'State Capitalism'.


Desert Fox said:


> Bernie endorsed Hillary, to the disappointment of his supporters. And No, actually i was against Hillary. Rooted for Trump because of his anti-NeoCon rhetoric and Nationalist message, but im disappointed in him for attacking Syria with the missile strikes. It seems the NeoCons (Neo-Cohens more like it) subverted Trump's administration and are itching for a war with Russia.


I know Bernie endorsed Hillary, that was a disappointment. I'd have preferred him endorsing Jill Stein instead. But I understand politically why he did it, anything to stop Trump, and Jill had no chance of winning with the way the media and establishment treats 3rd parties.

I never bought Trump's crap, even though he played this whole anti-establishment character, he was always one of them. Just look at who he's appointed as his inner circle; Rex Tillerson (i.e Big Oil), Betsy DeVos (her brother founded Blackwater and is now 'advising' Trump), Jared Kushner (real estate and Zionism).

When he started appointing these people it became blatantly obvious he wasn't going to be anti-War at all.

Hillary and Trump were two sides of the same coin:


>





Desert Fox said:


> He certainly endorsed Hillary much to the dismay of his supporters, despite having promised them he would take the fight to the DNC on their behalf but then chickened out even after it was discovered he was cheated by the DNC in favor of Hillary. That is cowardice.
> 
> Also, Bernie has family living in israel and he even justified israeli strikes on Gaza in 2014 as long as they only targeted Hamas. Sure he condemned the indiscriminate bombings of Gaza, but he was not against the fact that Israel was defending itself against alleged Hamas rocket attacks. Of course, i don't blame Bernie, he is a Jew with family in Israel. He gotta look out for his relatives who are residing on land confiscated from Palestinians only some 69 years ago. Can i blame Jews for looking out for their ethnic interests. No i cannot.


Let's not forget that Bernie is still an American running in America. Being anti-Israel even in the slightest is political suicide there, and as that article posted by @LA se Karachi shows, even taking a moderate stance on it is considered 'a sledgehammer'.


LA se Karachi said:


> Misleading:
> 
> _"Bernie Sanders is taking a sledgehammer to the political status quo on Israel.
> 
> *Sanders refused to back down Thursday night from his claim that Israel in 2014 used "disproportionate" force to respond to Hamas rocket fire from Gaza while calling for the United States to stop being "one-sided" in the conflict there.* In doing so, he upended a long-standing tenet of American politics: that unflinching support for Israel is non-negotiable."_



Doesn't really matter anyway, elections are over. And even if he did win, the Establishment, Lobbies, and Institutional Intertia wouldn't have let him change things even if he wanted to.


Desert Fox said:


> Right, man, buying a more than half a million dollar lake-front vacation home besides the one he already owns is not wealthy. You my friend must be a trillionaire if that's considered "not wealthy" according to you when the fact is most of the people who supported Bernie are living paycheck-to-paycheck, many are even homeless.


Not much of a trillionaire myself, unless you're counting in Zimbabwean Dollars, but what I meant was that compared to Hillary, Trump, Obama etc, he isn't really wealthy, never mind when compared to the 1% like Gates or Zuckerberg (who just bought an entire island and could probably buy a country if he really wanted to).


Desert Fox said:


> The fact that a convicted bank robber (Stalin) and his gang of budding crooks (Lenin, Trotsky, and the rest) managed to take the reins of a massive country like the Russian Empire, through Communism, says allot about Communism and its original founders.


You should know that before Lenin died, he wrote a letter warning against Stalin, and Stalin later had Trotsky exiled and murdered.

As for 'convicted bank robber', that doesn't really mean anything if you put it in context of the time. There are countless things you can use against Stalin, he was actually an evil man, but that is probably the weakest considering the situation at the time. If you read Alan Bullock's 'Hitler and Stalin, Parallel Lives' (I admit I've only read about a quarter of it), you'll see that Stalin's psychopathy was actually worse than being a mere crook, and the social/economic/political environment under which he grew up was equally reflected in his personality.

The fact that they managed to takeover the entire country does say a lot. It shows how horrible the Tsarist regime was at governance, but also that the people were truly desperate to get rid of them. Keep in mind that the revolution that overthrew the Tsar was different from the Bolshevik Revolution. A lot of people other than the Bolsheviks wanted the Tsar gone, and the first revolution in 1917 was actually a spontaneous popular movement.

The Bolshevik October Revolution, on the other hand, was a planned coup brilliantly executed by Lenin and Trotsky.
I won't defend the Bolsheviks' methods, they were undoubtedly very brutal, definitely not a beacon of morality.


Desert Fox said:


> I did not watch the video as i am short on time but i will say this: Where ever Communism established itself All of the people's of those nations gladly threw off the chains of Communism when they got the opportunity. I wonder why they would do that if they were living in Marx's utopia? Or perhaps Marx's utopia turned out to be hell on earth.
> 
> Sure, people did starve under the Czar during WW1. Things got tough. It was a war after all.


The video is just a humorous compilation of Carl Sagan saying big numbers, was meant as a joke.

I've already established that the 'Communism' established in the Soviet Union was actually very far from Marx's ideas.

But about the Tsar - people were actually starving long before the war. There was a bit of a revolution in 1905; there were some mutinies, but it was mostly unarmed peasants protesting, and the Tsarist forces basically massacred them. They had a secret police, the Okhrana, well known for torture, violence, and the use of double-agents - and ironically, the Okhrana thought the Bolsheviks were 'relatively harmless' and actively supported them as a counterweight to other revolutionary groups.

The war only made things worse. The Tsarist regime was a brutal tyranny, they deserved to be overthrown.


Desert Fox said:


> They did not have Russia's nor the Russian people's interests at heart which is why they sold off considerable Russian territory to the Central Powers in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Bolsheviks were opportunistic criminals of the worst kind. At least the Czar was a son of the soil. Bolsheviks were foreign agents inserted to undermine Russia.


I wouldn't really call the Tsar a 'son of the soil'. European royals at the time were notoriously 'intermarried', and there were a lot of theories at the time among the people of the Tsar being a traitor because he was married to a German.

One thing i'll say though is that the Tsar himself wasn't really that evil, at least not in my view - but he was incompetent at governance and did want absolute power. Much of his regime consisted of rich landowners and feudal-style lords. Some industrialists as well. And if you want some really freaky stuff about the Tsarists, look up Rasputin and prince Yusupov.

This is a fairly decent video about pre-WW1 Russia: 



That channel in general is quite good.

As for Brest-Litovsk; the Russians had no chance at winning that war. That war really had brought extreme pain and suffering to the people of Russia, and ending it was a very popular position. Again, while the Bolsheviks did many horrible things, this probably wasn't one of them. As your map shows, the Germans and Austro-Hungarians had actually seized a lot of territory - reclaiming it would have cost hundreds of thousands of Russian lives, and even if the soldiers were willing to fight, they didn't have the industrial capacity to produce weapons, nor the logistical capacity to effectively transport any resources they had to the front.

The Bolsheviks could overthrow the Provisional Government that came after the Tsar partly because of their policy of continuing the war, which was extremely unpopular with soldiers and people in general and made it very easy for the Bolsheviks to gain support.


Desert Fox said:


> I agree, and im no fan of unrestricted Capitalism. I believe Capitalism has its merits provided certain destructive aspects of it are removed. Same thing with "Socialism". And honestly like i said i hate using these terms as they restrict positive elements to the specific ideology and because Islam already addresses all of these issues. You should be allowed to keep the fruits of your labor provided your labor doesn't bring harm to your fellow human beings or the environment, and one can incorporate incentives to encourage productive elements of society to utilize their talents to benefit humanity thus including positive elements of socialism and capitalism. Interestingly you will find such an outlook in Fascism and National Socialism, both of which considered themselves as Third Position Ideologies in between Capitalism and Communism.


True, absolutely true.

The reason I lean more towards socialism is because a lot of the discourse on Islamic Economics such as that by Iqbal uses Socialism as a comparison to Islamic Economics.

For example, Iqbal had sympathy for the socialist movement and considered socialism to be "the modern interpretation of Islamic political ideas – a rejection of monarchical, hereditary and oppressive institutions, and racialism."

"But he saw in communism/Marxism the same lack of God as in capitalism; that communism is good in that it rejects the old injustices (theلا in لا إله إلا الله), but fails on the affirmation of truth (إلا الله) – providing little to offer as an alternative. Thus both capitalist-imperialist democracy and revolutionary communism are insufficient for the Islamic state."
(I'm quoting this article: http://www.stratagem.pk/cover-story/iqbals-vision-of-the-sovereign-state/ Note: I don't support everything on that site, but this analysis is quite interesting)

Those views are pretty obvious in Iqbal's poem _Lenin Khuda ke Hazoor Mei_

Let's look at what Islam actually says on economics;




So, instead of 'Surplus Value', Islam has a concept of 'surplus income' which should be given to those who need it. It is pretty close to the Socialist "to each according to their need" principle, but is superior to that as it maintains a balance and is also realistic and practical.

There is also the Bait-ul-Maal, which was a common pool of resources. But some resources were privately owned, and honest trade was encouraged.

There are countless more examples of Islamic economics; it's quite sophisticated and honestly I don't think I'm qualified enough to understand it fully, it's a very complex field, and I haven't even read Iqbal's _ilmul iqtesaad _yet.


Desert Fox said:


> Honestly, that was completely unintentional. Even i just got it  . Should've have left no pun intended.


Subtle puns are the best puns, it you _hammer _it in one can easily get _sickle _of it..


Philia said:


> Guys can't you take this capitalist/communist/socialist/socialist democrat/Israel/Palestine/Trump/Hillary/Bernie/Marx/Engels/Russia/Czar/Bolshevik things somewhere else? This is really off topic in this thread.


My apologies, it started as an attempt to clear up the political stances of French politicians but you know the internet rabbit-hole phenomenon is pretty powerful.

@Desert Fox tag me if you want to continue this discussion in a different thread

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## Vergennes

*So, what do the French presidential candidates plan to do if elected?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170416/heres-what-the-french-presidential-candidates-want-to-do

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## Mage

Thou shall pay 100% tax....Thine income shall belong to the state....
Thus I bestow a communist upon you...who shall be thy lord and savior 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...f4-11e7-bb59-a74ccaf1d02f_story.html#comments


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## Taygibay

Hum! As long as this is about France, let's not rule out communism^^^

About ten years before Pakistan was born, in 1936, an experiment called
the Front Populaire came to power uniting leftists incl. the communist PCF.

That government burned under the lack of economic recovery in mere months
and the coalition was entirely dissolved by 1938 but ...

they first had realized and implemented their plan nowadays known as
les Accords de Matignon / from the now PM's office.

Those gave the people :
the right to strike;
the right to collective representation;
the initial ( 2 weeks ) annual paid leave;
a 40 hours work week;
hiked wages with more increase to poorest.
​133 laws passed in 73 days show how driven they were.
The economics failed but the ideas got picked up and never left ( pun )
the collective psyche of either French politicians nor regular folks.

Ever since, our government has been more controlling / interventionniste than most
and even today, the Matignon Agreements are a mantra for the Left and a founding
memory of the citizens' entitlement regarding work and life.

I saw last year an exposition on it in Paris at the Hôtel de Ville.
You should have seen the simple joy of life in the eyes of the
factory workers vacationing fo the first time in period pictures.
Thanks to discount rail and lodging accommodations, thousands
and through the years since millions of less fortunate Frenchmen
at least once went in the countryside, to the mountains, to the sea.

My country is rich enough to allow this, which is more than a luxury
to the recipients that may never visit foreign lands and in any case,
an investment in happier more productive people.

The idea is, that to a French person, communist is not a dirty word
even though it was diversely mishandled worldwide since. It was a
joke by itself during the late Cold War as the PCF became more
Stalinist than the Kremlin and spewed forth passé rhetoric nonsense.
However, that is the exact strength of Melanchon that he rebranded
the party around his charismatic image and dropped true communist
symbology. [ Do check their logo and Marine did as much BTW. ]

If he manages to keep the hammer and sickle in the closet, beam
beatific confidence and belt out _laughing future_ promises, he may
well be tapping into the memory of that Front populaire experiment.

Just sayin', Tay.

​


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## Vergennes

@Philia @LA se Karachi

The last opinionway poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique;

*Marine Le Pen : 22% (-1)*
*Emmanuel Macron : 22% (=)*
*François Fillon : 21% (+1)*
*Jean Luc Mélenchon : 18% (+1)*
*Benoît Hamon : 8% (-1)*
*Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 3% (=)*
*Jean Lassalle : 2% (=)*
*Philippe Poutou : 2% (=)*
*François Asselineau : 1% (-1)*
*Nathalie Arthaud : 1% (+1)*
*Jacques Cheminade : ~0% (=)*
-
On the hypohtesis of a second round Macron vs Le Pen ;

*Emmanuel Macron 64% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 36% (-2)*

On the hypothesis of a second round Fillon vs Le Pen ;

*François Fillon 60% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 40% (-2)*

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## T-72M1

when is this happening, next weekend ?


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## HannibalBarca

T-72M1 said:


> when is this happening, next weekend ?



Sunday
&
You Choose... Mostly FR choice... with..

Commies vs Royalty vs Fascist


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## Mage

I don't think Fillon would be able to beat Le Pen in the second round.


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## HannibalBarca

Philia said:


> I don't think Fillon would be able to beat Le Pen in the second round.



if it's a Fillion vs Lepen... Fillion will mostly win...

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## T-72M1

HannibalBarca said:


> You Choose... Mostly FR choice... with..


eh ? I was asking when the elections are, and of course it's the French peoples' choice, I don't care too much which way this goes.



HannibalBarca said:


> Commy vs Royalty vs Fascist


 

Macron is apparently the establishment pick but is he royalty ? 

Trump and his supermodel 3rd wife seems so normal compared to a guy who married his teacher 25? years his senior though, lol

or did I just mix the names up lol, like I said, no idea and not much interest in this one,


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## HannibalBarca

T-72M1 said:


> eh ? I was asking when the elections are, and of course it's the French peoples' choice, I don't care too much which way this goes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macron is apparently the establishment pick but is he royalty ?
> 
> Trump and his supermodel 3rd wife seems so normal compared to a guy who married his teacher 25? years his senior though, lol



I added the date... it's Sunday
As for the royalty joke.. it's mostly bc Macron is seen as Holland "spiritual" son...

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> I don't think Fillon would be able to beat Le Pen in the second round.



He will win,but probably not with a very large margin.

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## HannibalBarca

Enjoy
French Election via America spectrum... LWT with Oliver





lol @6:15 F24...

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## blondeturkish

i'm rooting for le pen. she will be the only who would challenge the erdogan free loaders. who are in France which is a democraric and a free country. and at the same time destorying democracy in our country.


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## Vergennes

Kitten said:


> If you guys don't vote for and elect Macron I'll personally start a campaign, crowdfunded or state-backed, it doesn't matter, to build an Atlantic wall to keep you Frenchies out. Might even ask the Brits to join us.



Your support for Macron made me raise some questions. 
Why are you hoping for his victory ? Is he some sort of Norwegian agent or trohan horse that you are using for your interests ? Him praising the Nordic model seemed suspect to me,but everything is clear now.

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## HannibalBarca

Kitten said:


> Our man Bernie failed in the US last year thanks to those pesky Russians.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We need at least one a̶g̶e̶n̶t̶ fellow liberal to have a win somewhere and France is the most immediate prospect for a successful infiltration, er, path forwards into peace and prosperity.
> 
> Realistically, I just don't want any right wing candidates or extreme leftists (Communists) to win. Macron seems to be the most grounded and least bombastic or risky.



Long Live the King! Vive Mélonchon!!


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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @LA se Karachi
> 
> The last opinionway poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique;
> 
> *Marine Le Pen : 22% (-1)*
> *Emmanuel Macron : 22% (=)*
> *François Fillon : 21% (+1)*
> *Jean Luc Mélenchon : 18% (+1)*
> *Benoît Hamon : 8% (-1)*
> *Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 3% (=)*
> *Jean Lassalle : 2% (=)*
> *Philippe Poutou : 2% (=)*
> *François Asselineau : 1% (-1)*
> *Nathalie Arthaud : 1% (+1)*
> *Jacques Cheminade : ~0% (=)*
> -
> On the hypohtesis of a second round Macron vs Le Pen ;
> 
> *Emmanuel Macron 64% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 36% (-2)*
> 
> On the hypothesis of a second round Fillon vs Le Pen ;
> 
> *François Fillon 60% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 40% (-2)*



I really don't see why more people prefer Macron over Le Pen (if these numbers are accurate).

Macron is just a Hollande plant. I used to think he's got something going....but now more and more as I read up on his positions, its same old same old (neo-socialist thought) wrapped in a "new" package.

Le Pen has just not made enough penetration into French Urban areas it seems though. Her support is largely rural and maybe a few banlieues...but not going to be enough for final round it seems.

Sometimes I wish mitterand and de gaulle would be resurrected and set things straight in France once again (good sparring, good debate, real society compromise). There was the time of France I fell in love with! I want it back again! I really only see something of them (loving France, preserving France, fighting for France) in Le Pen to be honest....everyone else just seems to want status-quo to take it wherever it takes it....I don't find that particularly balanced (you need to fight against the current sometimes to get to best destination...sometimes just to show to yourself you can if needed)....and I think France needs to deal with the long term approach by Chirac, Sarkozy and Hollande...who were simply not dominant enough. Thats just going to continue in Macron or Fillion I feel....but maybe French overall are still content with that....I leave it up to them to decide.

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## KediKesenFare3

Melenchonn vs Le Pen - dream team


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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @LA se Karachi
> 
> The last opinionway poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique;
> 
> *Marine Le Pen : 22% (-1)*
> *Emmanuel Macron : 22% (=)*
> *François Fillon : 21% (+1)*
> *Jean Luc Mélenchon : 18% (+1)*
> *Benoît Hamon : 8% (-1)*
> *Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 3% (=)*
> *Jean Lassalle : 2% (=)*
> *Philippe Poutou : 2% (=)*
> *François Asselineau : 1% (-1)*
> *Nathalie Arthaud : 1% (+1)*
> *Jacques Cheminade : ~0% (=)*
> -
> On the hypohtesis of a second round Macron vs Le Pen ;
> 
> *Emmanuel Macron 64% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 36% (-2)*
> 
> On the hypothesis of a second round Fillon vs Le Pen ;
> 
> *François Fillon 60% (+2) - Marine Le Pen 40% (-2)*




This poll (and others) really make me hope that Macron makes it through. A Le Pen vs. Fillon second round looks a little worrying. Not saying she would win, but it's not good to see her getting 40% of the vote already.


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## Louiq XIV

blondeturkish said:


> i'm rooting for le pen. she will be the only who would challenge the erdogan free loaders. who are in France which is a democraric and a free country. and at the same time destorying democracy in our country.


Lol 

Turkey does not need any foreign help to destroy its democracy. It does it very well alone from the inside.

At 5 days before the first round Fillon, Macron & Le Pen are very close from each other in polls so everything is possible.

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## Mage

Louiq XIV said:


> 5 days before the first round Fillon, Macron & Le Pen are very close from each other in polls so everything is possible.


DON'T YOU DARE FORGET MELENCHON!!!!


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## Vergennes

*50,000 police officers mobilised to protect polling stations over fear of terror attack during French election*

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...nch-election-fear-terror-attack-a7687736.html



LA se Karachi said:


> This poll (and others) really make me hope that Macron makes it through. A Le Pen vs. Fillon second round looks a little worrying. Not saying she would win, but it's not good to see her getting 40% of the vote already.



It will also depend on the turnout. The lower it is,the bigger her score will be.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *50,000 police officers mobilised to protect polling stations over fear of terror attack during French election*
> 
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...nch-election-fear-terror-attack-a7687736.html
> 
> 
> 
> It will also depend on the turnout. The lower it is,the bigger her score will be.



I'm quite "interested" to see A France with LePen...
One thing I'm sure is that those (foreign buyers) with money will be happy...
Whatever it's the GCC or RU/CN...

Ps: I don't want it to happen... but by curiosity...


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## Mage

HannibalBarca said:


> I'm quite "interested" to see A France with LePen...
> One thing I'm sure is that those (foreign buyers) with money will be happy...
> Whatever it's the GCC or RU/CN...
> 
> Ps: I don't want it to happen... but by curiosity...


I'm interested to see how a race between Le Pen and Melenchon in the final round will look like. Sounds like a circus to me.

@Vergennes like you said Melenchon could be overrated in the polls like last time but last time socialist had another guy to vote for i.e Hollande. But this time Hamon is out before it began. He'll get a most of leftist votes and a sizeable number of socialist votes. And not to mention he may snatch more votes from Hamon.

While I don't think Melenchon will make it to the second stage but I think his polling numbers are not as overrated as last time.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> I'm interested to see how a race between Le Pen and Melenchon in the final round will look like. Sounds like a circus to me.



I hope it won't. BTW, I can't believe nearly 50% of the French voters are far rightists or far leftists,nearly communists.



> @Vergennes like you said Melenchon could be overrated in the polls like last time but last time socialist had another guy to vote for i.e Hollande. But this time Hamon is out before it began. He'll get a most of leftist votes and a sizeable number of socialist votes. And not to mention he may snatch more votes from Hamon.
> 
> While I don't think Melenchon will make it to the second stage but I think his polling numbers are not as overrated as last time.



Mélenchon is too radical for the majority of the leftists,I don't believe he will get most of their votes,even less the socialist votes. The later would or have already backed Macron.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> I hope it won't. BTW, I can't believe nearly 50% of the French voters are far rightists or far leftists,nearly communists.
> 
> 
> 
> Mélenchon is too radical for the majority of the leftists,I don't believe he will get most of their votes,even less the socialist votes. The later would or have already backed Macron.



Rdy to vote? 

For Myself still in the choosing...


----------



## Mage

Vergennes said:


> I hope it won't. BTW, I can't believe nearly 50% of the French voters are far rightists or far leftists,nearly communists.
> 
> 
> 
> Mélenchon is too radical for the majority of the leftists,I don't believe he will get most of their votes,even less the socialist votes. The later would or have already backed Macron.


Then Macron's numbers should be way up. If he gets majority of leftist and socialist votes he's also likely to get some moderate right votes with Fillon being in scandal. But Macron is still trailing behind Le Pen for the first round. Things don't add up. Macron's biggest strength is like Tay said he can get votes from any group other than small extremist groups. That's why I think Macron would actually win if he manages to go to the second round.

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Rdy to vote?
> 
> For Myself still in the choosing...



Nope.

I'll tell you the truth.

I am not sure of which candidate will really get my vote. I still think Fillon has the best project for our country,but morally I can't vote for someone who's involved in scandals. I said I would probably cast my vote for Macron,but still not 100% sure. I think I'll decide at the last minute.... inside the voting booth. Mabe I'll see the light.



Philia said:


> Then Macron's numbers should be way up. If he gets majority of leftist and socialist votes he's also likely to get some moderate right votes with Fillon being in scandal. But Macron is still trailing behind Le Pen for the first round. Things don't add up. Macron's biggest strength is like Tay said he can get votes from any group other than small extremist groups. That's why I think Macron would actually win if he manages to go to the second round.



I still believe that Macron might be overrated,anything will depend on the turnout (projected to be lower than in the precedent elections) and the choice the high number of undecisive voters will make. There might be surprises.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Nope.
> 
> I'll tell you the truth.
> 
> I am not sure of which candidate will really get my vote. I still think Fillon has the best project for our country,but morally I can't vote for someone who's involved in scandals. I said I would probably cast my vote for Macron,but still not 100% sure. I think I'll decide at the last minute.... inside the voting booth. Mabe I'll see the light.



I think I'll jump on Macron...
Fillion... It's a Sarko little brother... so since the begining it was a No... ( If it was Juppé.. I think I will choose otherwise...)
Melonchon/Lepen same shit... Different name...

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> Nope.
> 
> I'll tell you the truth.
> 
> I am not sure of which candidate will really get my vote. I still think Fillon has the best project for our country,but morally I can't vote for someone who's involved in scandals. I said I would probably cast my vote for Macron,but still not 100% sure. I think I'll decide at the last minute.... inside the voting booth. Mabe I'll see the light.


Dude, don't abstain from voting. Not voting is like voting for a candidate you don't like. Don't vote randomly either. Look in to the candidates and their policies. Then decide who you want to see leading your nation.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Dude, don't abstain from voting. Not voting is like voting for a candidate you don't like. Don't vote randomly either. Look in to the candidates and their policies. Then decide who you want to see leading your nation



Sometimes I can understand those who abstain,literally disgusted by the French politics and the political class. Always promises and nothing is done when they come to power,or at least the problems aren't well adressed,have the feeling that they are corrupt or only care for their privileges or their seats. More and more people have the feeling that voting or not,nothing will change. 
-
As for me I won't abstain for the first round,I will carefully choose the candidate that will finally get my vote,but I think that will be a last minute choice. Oh and if on the second round there's some shitty choices like Mélenchon-Le Pen,I am afraid that like much more of my fellow citizens,I'm going to abstain. I hope though we are intelligent enough to avoid that.

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## Vergennes

*Lower turnout equals higher uncertainty in French election arithmetic*

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-abstention-idUKKBN17K19R


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## DejanSRB

I really hope for Fillion/Melanchon/Le Pen victory.

All of them are better that Macron. He represents broken pseudoliberal doctrine, a policy that miserably lose both in Britain and USA. 
France should follow that path. 
Le Pen too radical for majority of French, but as a Serb I support her policies towards that criminal $hithole filled with prostitutes and womens for sale, nepotism, Afghanistan scale corruption called Kosovo.
Malanchon is communist, lets be honest.
Fillon is best by far. He is modern conservative. 
If I was born as a French citizen I would vote for Fillon. But I am Serb and I really support Le Pen, becouse of our mutual interests (Serbian interests).


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## flamer84

As an outsider I prefer Fillon/Macron.Melenchon/LePen would be a catastrophe for France and Europe

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## Vergennes

@Philia @LA se Karachi 

*The final countdown: Here's how France's presidential election will unfold
*
https://www.thelocal.fr/20170419/the-final-countdown-heres-how-frances-election-will-unfold

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## Vergennes

*French Election 2017: National poll of polls*

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-presidential-election-national-polls-1617474

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## Vergennes

*How will Champs-Elysées terror shooting impact on the French election?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170421/wh...s-terror-shooting-have-on-the-french-election


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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> *French Election 2017: National poll of polls*
> 
> http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-presidential-election-national-polls-1617474


Melenchon's sharp increase is worrying and if more Hamon and other left leaning voters decide to back that guy then...it could be catastrophic. In the Wikipedia page of French election polls it shows even Melenchon beats Le Pen.....it must suck to be her


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> Melenchon's sharp increase is worrying and if more Hamon and other left leaning voters decide to back that guy then...it could be catastrophic. In the Wikipedia page of French election polls it shows even Melenchon beats Le Pen.....it must suck to be her



@LA se Karachi

The campaign has now officially ended.

To respect the tranquility of voters at the time of their choice, clear provisions are provided by law to prevent any disruptive event in the last 48 hours before the vote. The campaign stops this Friday at midnight in metropolitan France. It stopped Thursday at midnight in the the overseas territories where the voting will take place this saturday. (Sunday for metropolitan France)

Under a decree from March 2001, the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign imposes on the candidates to cease any campaign action and any act of propaganda to Electoral purpose ... everywhere on the territory of the Republic. 
They are not allowed to hold any public meetings anymore,nore distribute leaflets or send electoral emails,anything that has character of electoral propaganda. It also calls on them to freeze the content of their websites and no longer make any updates of them til the closing of the last polling stations.

The National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign for the Presidential Election reminds the media that it is no longer possible to broadcast interviews of candidates or their supporters in the print or audiovisual press on Saturday 22 and Sunday, April 23, 2017. 
No polling, no partial results, no estimate of the results can be published on saturday 22 and sunday 23 April before 8 pm.


The law also forbids from now til sunday at 8pm for any polls to be conducted,published or commented. Exit polls are also forbidden.

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## Vergennes

The voting has currently started in France's overseas territories !
-
*French election: What can the president actually do?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170422/what-can-a-french-president-actually-do

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## Vergennes

Long queues for the French citizens established in Montréal even since the opening of the only polling station. 58K are registered to vote. Some waited as long as 3 hours before casting their vote.







Meanwhile on mainland France,the nearly 67K polling stations are being set up. Here a nice one in Lyon!

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Long queues for the French citizens established in Montréal even since the opening of the only polling station. 58K are registered to vote. Some waited as long as 3 hours before casting their vote.
> 
> View attachment 392324
> 
> 
> Meanwhile on mainland France,the nearly 67K polling stations are being set up. Here a nice one in Lyon!
> 
> View attachment 392322



Well for my case I will not wait that long... around 200 ppl is voting in the Area


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## Mage

HannibalBarca said:


> Well for my case I will not wait that long... around 200 ppl is voting in the Area


Who are you picking?


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## HannibalBarca

Philia said:


> Who are you picking?



The less problematic/ most stable among all. Tbh most of a Safe vote than a vote of conviction.
Same as @Vergennes

I vote for the One who likes Older Woman

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## Chhatrapati

The problem with Right wingers and protectionism may hit the world economies. 
The Liberals had a network around the world, though different countries, they hold similar views. 
When it comes to Center right and far right neither of them likes each other. Similar example can be drawn from the ordeal between Malcolm Turnbull and Donald Trump.

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## Vergennes

*Overseas voters kick off crucial French presidential election*

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN17O0DG


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## Vergennes

Today is a great,but also an important day.

In some hours,France will go to the polls to choose the two candidates that will face each others to then become the President of the Republic. This election is very important as it will determine the fate of our country for the next five years,but also the fate of the European Union as a whole.

Let's hope for the worst not to happen. @flamer84 
Let's also hope for the vote to happen peacefully without any major incidents.

Good luck to you and good voting.  @Taygibay @HannibalBarca @Louiq XIV

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## Vergennes

* French election 2017: voters go to the polls in wide-open contest *

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/23/france-presidential-election-voting-begins-eu-le-pen


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## Vergennes

I voted. 






-
The turnout rate at 12pm was *28,54%*. A slight increase compared to 2012 when it was at *28,29%* at the same hour. But lower than in 2007 when it was at *31,21%*.






@Philia @LA se Karachi

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> I voted.


The question is for whom?


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## Ashesh

Vergennes said:


> I voted.
> 
> View attachment 392451
> 
> 
> -
> The turnout rate at 12pm was *28,54%*. A slight increase compared to 2012 when it was at *28,29%* at the same hour. But lower than in 2007 when it was at *31,21%*.
> 
> View attachment 392453
> 
> 
> @Philia @LA se Karachi



Bro, not following this thread. 

Just wanted to know if Le Pen can win or not?


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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> The question is for whom?



Isn't a vote supposed to be secret ? 



Spoiler



The guy that loves older women


Spoiler



Macron





Spoiler



I think it is the safest choice.








Ashesh said:


> Bro, not following this thread.
> 
> Just wanted to know if Le Pen can win or not?



Highly unlikely. She might be present in the second round,but will be beaten easily.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Isn't a vote supposed to be secret ?
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> The guy that loves older women
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> Macron
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> I think it is the safest choice.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Highly unlikely. She might be present in the second round,but will be beaten easily.



Lol 

Voted to.

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> Isn't a vote supposed to be secret ?
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> The guy that loves older women
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> Macron
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> I think it is the safest choice.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Highly unlikely. She might be present in the second round,but will be beaten easily.




You voted for the fag?


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> You voted for the fag?



We voted for our Future...

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> You voted for the fag?



It was the safest choice of all. (It is my opnion) Has a pretty good project,is clean and is a good compromise between the extremes from the right and the left. Someone who will not destroy our country and the EU.

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> It was the safest choice of all. (It is my opnion) Has a pretty good project,is clean and is a good compromise between the extremes from the right and the left. Someone who will not destroy our country and the EU.




You disappoint me friend. I didn´t expect that you betray your own nation. Think about that when the next truck plows through your people.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> You disappoint me friend. I didn´t expect that you betray your own nation. Think about that when the next truck plows through your people.



That's pretty low ... very low. Tbh even a Disgrace to your own ppl...

Ps: some facts... Putin couldn't end terro on his own soil... while being the Greatest Father of all Righ/facist wing of Europe...

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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> That's pretty low ... very low. Tbh even a Disgrace to your own ppl...
> 
> Ps: some facts... Putin couldn't end terro on his own soil... while being the Greatest Father of all Righ/facist wing of Europe...




I dont care what you say Ali. I stand for my nation. And i fight for it with all my heart. Thats something you can never understand. I understand that you vote for the guy who hates his own nation but i expected better from Vergennes. And thats not just words. Its what i actually feel and deeply believe in.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> I dont care what you say Ali. I stand for my nation. And i fight for it with all my heart. Thats something you can never understand. I understand that you vote for the guy who hates his own nation but i expected better from Vergennes. And thats not just words. Its what i actually feel and deeply believe in.



Who is Ali?

Are you Mario? Luigi?

You love your country... 
First Give him a Good Image of it...
Then work hard for It 
And Last ... Love me

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## HannibalBarca

This is the pic used by the French interior gov to motivate French voters. 








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/856055492279504897
@cabatli_53 @xenon54 @OguzSenturk @Combat-Master @Sinan @what @T-123456 @KediKesenFare @Vergennes

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> You disappoint me friend. I didn´t expect that you betray your own nation. Think about that when the next truck plows through your people.



I don't know why you are trying to make me feel guilty. Is Macron supporting terrorists or something ?

Do you really think Marine Le Pen will stop terror ? 

Just so you know. @flamer84 
@HannibalBarca 








I can't vote for someone who's corrupt,who refuses to see the judges and the Police and who even steals money from the EU,that is the most hilarious thing.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> I don't know why you are trying to make me feel guilty. Is Macron supporting terrorists or something ?
> 
> Do you really think Marine Le Pen will stop terror ?
> 
> Just so you know. @flamer84
> @HannibalBarca
> 
> View attachment 392471
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't vote for someone who's corrupt,who refuses to see the judges and the Police and who even steals money from the EU,that is the most hilarious thing.



Yeah I know about those votes...

HE will tell you...that he do not care about them being " Clean"


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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> I don't know why you are trying to make me feel guilty. Is Macron supporting terrorists or something ?
> 
> Do you really think Marine Le Pen will stop terror ?
> 
> Just so you know. @flamer84
> @HannibalBarca
> 
> View attachment 392471
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't vote for someone who's corrupt,who refuses to see the judges and the Police and who even steals money from the EU,that is the most hilarious thing.



The EU must be destroyed. Thats a fact.

And the Fag, what does he stand for? He wants let in evry scum he can find that pleases him. He is a pathetic weakling, a cuck. A homosexual who married his old teacher to hide his sexual orientation.

If thats what France wants, so be it. With Macron you vote the path downwards. You vote for islamism, terrorism, boundless neo capitalism and social collapse.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> The EU must be destroyed. Thats a fact.
> 
> And the Fag, what does he stand for? He wants let in evry scum he can find that pleases him. He is a pathetic weakling, a cuck. A homosexual who married his old teacher to hide his sexual orientation.
> 
> If thats what France wants, so be it. With Macron you vote the path downwards. You vote for islamism, terrorism, boundless neo capitalism and social collapse.



Just ... lol...

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## liall

HannibalBarca said:


> The less problematic/ most stable among all. Tbh most of a Safe vote than a vote of conviction.
> Same as @Vergennes
> 
> I vote for the One who likes Older Woman


The banker?


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## HannibalBarca

liall said:


> The banker?

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> The EU must be destroyed. Thats a fact.
> 
> And the Fag, what does he stand for? He wants let in evry scum he can find that pleases him. He is a pathetic weakling, a cuck. A homosexual who married his old teacher to hide his sexual orientation.
> 
> If thats what France wants, so be it. With Macron you vote the path downwards. You vote for islamism, terrorism, boundless neo capitalism and social collapse.



Do you have a problem against homosexual persons ? Days ago you were saying it was natural,that you had gay friends and such ?

Anyway,even if he was I wouldn't care. I vote for someone for his project,and I look at every subjects. Security,health,economy,education etc. If he likes older women,that's his choice. If he likes men that's his choice.
I don't care if someone is gay,trans,fat,small,I just want a good President that will well manage the country,that's it. Their personal lives do not councern me at all,nor I care much.

Anyway,that is my choice. Maybe the millions of other French voted differently,we will see this night.

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## liall

Vergennes said:


> Do you have a problem against homosexual persons ? Days ago you were saying it was natural,that you had gay friends and such ?
> 
> Anyway,even if he was I wouldn't care. I vote for someone for his project,and I look at every subjects. Security,health,economy,education etc. If he likes older women,that's his choice. If he likes men that's his choice.
> I don't care if someone is gay,trans,fat,small,I just want a good President that will well manage the country,that's it. Their personal lives do not councern me at all,nor I care much.
> 
> Anyway,that is my choice. Maybe the millions of other French voted differently,we will see this night.



I had no interest in French election until a few days ago when I saw a Le Pen interview. Researched about her and her father is a racist, holocaust denier WTH. Even if Le Pen is not racist I do not think her agenda of going out of EU will bring any benefits to France. I hope that France doesnt do anything stupid. A disintegrated EU is bad for the economy of rest of the world as well.

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## KediKesenFare3

Allah, please, make Le Pen the winner of this election, please.

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## what

The french voting for Le Pen, that would deflect the attention of the media from the embarassment that was the referendum in Turkey, but Le Pen stands no chance in the second round, so good luck Macron.


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## flamer84

Vergennes said:


> Today is a great,but also an important day.
> 
> In some hours,France will go to the polls to choose the two candidates that will face each others to then become the President of the Republic. This election is very important as it will determine the fate of our country for the next five years,but also the fate of the European Union as a whole.
> 
> Let's hope for the worst not to happen. @flamer84
> Let's also hope for the vote to happen peacefully without any major incidents.
> 
> Good luck to you and good voting.  @Taygibay @HannibalBarca @Louiq XIV





Vergennes said:


> I don't know why you are trying to make me feel guilty. Is Macron supporting terrorists or something ?
> 
> Do you really think Marine Le Pen will stop terror ?
> 
> Just so you know. @flamer84
> @HannibalBarca
> 
> View attachment 392471
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't vote for someone who's corrupt,who refuses to see the judges and the Police and who even steals money from the EU,that is the most hilarious thing.


I am as right wing as it gets but there has to be a limit to reason.Supporting someone who wants to take a hammer on the EU and the entire economical establishment which will only bring ruin crosses any limit.

."We will spend more,we will bring back the franc, we will have a protectionist economy",are just fairytales.

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## Louiq XIV

I haven't voted yet. Will do at 5pm.

Found that CSS code funny (for geek guys)

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## Vergennes

The turnout rate at 5pm was* 69,42%*. Slightly lower than 2012 when it was at *70,59%* at the same hour. Lower also than in 2007 when it was at *73,87%*.

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## vostok

ValerioAurelius said:


> I hope lePen makes a good result. I have a french friend who loves his country and is member of FN and thinks it will go fine.


I disagree with you on many issues, but not this time. I believe that Madam Le Pen - the last chance ever to save France from irreversible cultural and ethnic changes.


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## HannibalBarca

vostok said:


> I do not agree with you in many questions, but not in this case. I believe that Madam Le Pen - the last chance ever to save France from irreversible cultural and ethnic changes.



Yeah...That's what those who voted for Putin tho' too... and yet... RU is in deep financial crisis and inland problems with their gov( corruption and such).
And even in International ground Putin tho' to be strong and yet even his Friend Trump let him go...
And Putin influence in ME is sinking with Time...

And things are getting worst and worst for him...

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## OguzSenturk

HannibalBarca said:


> This is the pic used by the French interior gov to motivate French voters.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/856055492279504897
> @cabatli_53 @xenon54 @OguzSenturk @Combat-Master @Sinan @what @T-123456 @KediKesenFare @Vergennes



Ahahaha this is so nice

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## Vergennes

The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.

The two candidates that will go to the secound round will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)

The abstention rate is estimated to be around 22%. (Slightly higher than in 2012) Much lower than expected.

@flamer84 The EU right now.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
> Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.
> 
> The two candidates that will go to the secound round will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)
> 
> The abstention rate is estimated to be around 22%. (Slightly higher than in 2012) Much lower than expected.
> 
> @flamer84 The EU right now.



Lol les infos belges donne Macron puis Lepen et Enfin Melénchon

Allez Hop je switch sur FR2... avec le Nain - Mme la Grosse Bouche et Mr Coupe PArfaite...

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> I think so too. The last other option will be salvation through destruction. That means all right wing should openly attack the system and destroy it.



Yeah Yeah yeah... Etchnic / Religious Demography can change in 5 years... Yeah yeah yeah...


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> As usual you dont get it. I rather think about a "black skirt" movement.



Nope, it's you who think that movement of pop and Etchnic demography are behaving like our world... A world who can change and switch very fast...

But it's not...


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Again you are wrong. I believe in power. I see crisis as a gift. Forza Italia and Lega Nord would not so sucessful without it. I see EU as rotten. Its destabilized and i believe we must do anything to crush it. Push minorities under the train. You still dont get how things work. We make extreme demands. The public supports it. We push further.
> 
> Best example are our deportation laws, we currently even deport people who had islamists in their FB friendslist. We install restaurant bans for non italians in cities and so on.
> 
> Macron i france is a pathetic weakling. You believe that fag would be able to be hard in a crisis? He can only be "hard" in a dark room. I cant identify myself with a weakling. He would be a gift. What would be better than weakling Macron and a hard FN oppossition? Macron must do hard social reforms. People wont take it. He will be unable to adress the terrorism and islamism problem because he is a cuck.



Look Italy is still the way she is thanks to EU money... Yes without it , you will have been Greece and long time ago...

It's like LePen who are stealing money from EU parlement while Crying to the World that EU is bad and should be destroyed.. Ironic no ?

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## Vergennes

First estimates

Macron 23% Le Pen 23%
Mélenchon 19% Fillon 19%

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> We dont get EU money. Show me the transfer of EU money to Italy. Italy pays more into EU than it gets back.
> 
> I think it must be that EU gets exploited and blocked as much as possible. That evryone takes what he can. Its a worthless institution. I took EU money as well. Got several thousand EU Erasmus funds.



Taking € and yet spitting on it...
Italy has around 360Billions IMPOSSIBLE to pay back... and the last thing from Italy failure is your oldest bak who need 6-8 Billions from BCE...


_______________________________________________

Macron 23% & Lepen 21%

Well 90% chance MAcron president..

EU be like...

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> lePen as 2nd strongest force shows that Macron cant do anything.
> 
> And yes, i love to take EU money. Why not abuse a system you hate? Money i take cant be used for other things.



We call that being Hypocrite ..Therefore unworthy...


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## Vergennes

@Philia @LA se Karachi @flamer84 

Well,Macron will easily beat Le Pen. This time polls were accurate.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @LA se Karachi @flamer84
> 
> Well,Macron will easily beat Le Pen. This time polls were accurate.



Lol Raffarin... Tous Derrière MACRON!!

If the Left was one.. Melonchon could have been in it...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Lol Raffarin... Tous Derrière MACRON!!



Yeah i've seen it when I turned on France 2. His face said everything.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Yeah i've seen it when I turned on France 2. His face said everything.



Allez Hop!!

*................................MOST WANTED...................................*

*



*



ValerioAurelius said:


> Why exactly? Our area for example is ruled by Lega Nord and Forza Italia. We hate EU. yet we take millions and buy expensive cars for our parties. We throw the money out of the windows. Berlusconi did build an entire Villa on sicily with EU money. They even pay whores with EU money.
> 
> I got my entire education paid by EU funds and participated in EU programs. Those morons expect then when you are finished that you act pro EU. First thing i did was joining Forza Italia and act against EU.
> 
> EU is led by weaklings like fag Macron. We had a meeting in Strassbourg. Youth was invited. We got flight, hotel. food. We went there, subscribed at the list that we were there and then went back to city to have fun. 2/3 of italian youth group was not attending any event  And the spanish and portus followed our example.
> 
> Its idiots like this Macron fag who make this possible.



I don't really care about what you do with EU money... But the first thing that come to my mind is...

I Pity you, I really do...

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Well,Macron will easily beat Le Pen. This time polls were accurate.




I certainly hope so. I think he was the strongest candidate to go up against her. 

And yes, polls seem to be very accurate.

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Allez Hop!!
> 
> *................................MOST WANTED...................................*
> 
> *
> 
> 
> 
> *
> 
> 
> 
> I don't really care about what you do avec EU money... But the first thing that come to my mind is...
> 
> I Pity you, I really do...



Congratulations to Macron for this spectacular victory. For an outsider who never participated in any election,now about to manage a country such as France. 
He leads according to France 2,equals Le Pen according to TF1. We'll know more this night.

When Macron declared to run,everyone laughed at him. Now look at him. @Philia 

As for Marine,if we can resume the sentiment : Lâchez les chiens. 



LA se Karachi said:


> I certainly hope so. I think he was the strongest candidate to go up against her.
> 
> And yes, polls seem to be very accurate.
> 
> View attachment 392526



I am also surprised about Mélenchon. Up from 11% in 2012 to 19% in 2017.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Congratulations to Macron for this spectacular victory. For an outsider who never participated in any election,now about to manage a country such as France.
> He leads according to France 2,equals Le Pen according to TF1. We'll know more this night.
> 
> When Macron declared to run,everyone laughed at him. Now look at him. @Philia
> 
> As for Marine,if we can resume the sentiment : Lâchez les chiens.
> 
> 
> 
> I am also surprised about Mélenchon. Up from 11% in 2012 to 19% in 2017.



*LOL!!! *They took out Wauquiez, " le mouton noir" and replaced it with Bruno Retailleau!!

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> I am also surprised about Mélenchon. Up from 11% in 2012 to 19% in 2017.




Ya, me too. His rise in the polls was real. It will be interesting to see if he does finish ahead of Fillon (though I'm still a bit skeptical). Interestingly, I do think he took away some votes from Le Pen. You can see her support in the polls dip below Macron's as Mélenchon's rises (and Hamon's support craters). She was polling first until Mélenchon started to rise dramatically. 

While it makes no difference who gets the most votes in the first round, it is symbolic, and will make all the difference in the media. If Macron does finish first, as he's expected to do, all the headlines will be about him and not Le Pen. Mélenchon may have saved the day with his result, as he may have prevented Le Pen from finishing first.

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> What happened that you became a leftist cuck? I did always believe that you are not that way. I know its hard to judge people but i actually feel strange that i misjudged you that much. I actually believed you cared for your nation. Now you hail a leftist fag who wants open borders and let more ISIS in. You hail someone who supports terrorism and war against his own people.
> 
> You support someone who wants crush the workers with his neo liberal bullshit. You support a Merkel minion.



I don't really care about what you think about me.

I voted for a centrist candidate,I didn't want my country to be ruled by a far rightist or far leftist. I voted for the renewal. It was time for the renewal in French politics. I care about my country. I care about security,health,education,employment and the other subjects. I thought he was the best candidate. 

I'll tell you,I planned to vote for Fillon since the begining,but the scandals he is involved in made me thinking otherwise. Morally I can't vote for someone who steals public money (my money) and isn't clean. Same goes for Le Pen. (well she steals EU money) 
If you can vote for corrupt candidates,that is your choice.

@HannibalBarca @LA se Karachi Everyone is calling to vote for Macron. Even Fillon supporters and Fillon himself.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> @HannibalBarca @LA se Karachi Everyone is calling to vote for Macron. Even Fillon supporters and Fillon himself.



Yep seeing Fillion right now...

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> I don't really care about what you think about me.
> 
> I voted for a centrist candidate,I didn't want my country to be ruled by a far rightist or far leftist. I voted for the renewal. It was time for the renewal in French politics. I care about my country. I care about security,health,education,employment and the other subjects. I thought he was the best candidate.
> 
> I'll tell you,I planned to vote for Fillon since the begining,but the scandals he is involved in made me thinking otherwise. Morally I can't vote for someone who steals public money (my money) and isn't clean. Same goes for Le Pen. (well she steals EU money)
> If you can vote for corrupt candidates,that is your choice.
> 
> @HannibalBarca @LA se Karachi Everyone is calling to vote for Macron. Even Fillon supporters and Fillon himself.



I´m done with you. You are a traitor to your own people. You voted for a Goldman Sachs fag. You voted for stagnation. 

Macron gives no security. He stands for more influx of terrorists.
Macron wants minimum wage for french workers and more money of investment bankers.

You voted for a Merkel puppet.

In a way it is funny though. As i said, when the next truck smashs through your people, when next officers get shot you hopefully think about that. Your country already is the shithole of europe. From now on it will go only more downwards. I hope we keep a look at our borders to france. Your country is a security risk.

@flamer84 @vostok


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> I´m done with you. You are a traitor to your own people. You voted for a Goldman Sachs fag. You voted for stagnation.
> 
> Macron gives no security. He stands for more influx of terrorists.
> Macron wants minimum wage for french workers and more money of investment bankers.
> 
> You voted for a Merkel puppet.
> 
> In a way it is funny though. As i said, when the next truck smashs through your people, when next officers get shot you hopefully think about that. Your country already is the shithole of europe. From now on it will go only more downwards. I hope we keep a look at our borders to france. Your country is a security risk.
> 
> @flamer84 @vostok



That's a very interesting personality of those Right/fascist wing around the globe... They can't accept other ppl thinking & live with it ... it's always... a pityfull scene...

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## Taygibay

ValerioAurelius said:


> Think about that when the next truck plows through your people.



and then a long litany of c0cks, g@y, ad personam attacks
and snide remarks at Muslims ...

Y serait pas un peu paro ce garçon, des fois?
I mean if France was only attacked by homosexual Muslims
whose ( all ) wives sleep around with anyone, it shouldn't be
worrisome : that's not a big enough sub-set of humanity to
be a menace for long, especially as they hardly reproduce ...
logically!

 Tay.

P.S.


ValerioAurelius said:


> Your country already is the shithole of europe.



Priceless!

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## Attila the Hun

ValerioAurelius said:


> What happened that you became a leftist cuck?



I don't know about the guy youre responding to, haven't followed his posts, but a lot on this forum can be described as "leftist cuck". it shouldn't come as a surprise.

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## DejanSRB

HannibalBarca said:


> Yeah...That's what those who voted for Putin tho' too... and yet... RU is in deep financial crisis and inland problems with their gov( corruption and such).



For 99% of history of Russia, Russia was in deep crisis, domestic, invasion problems, deep economic problems, revolutions, etc.
And yet it was always (since Peter the Great) one of the most powerful nations in the world, with remarkable contribution in any field, sport, science, arts, politics. Only few countries can put themselvs on that level. That miserable twat called Trump are nothing what Russia experienced before, miserable low life billionaire, Russia will overcome all of that, and again be on position she deserves. Dont worry.

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> I´m done with you. You are a traitor to your own people. You voted for a Goldman Sachs fag. You voted for stagnation.
> 
> Macron gives no security. He stands for more influx of terrorists.
> Macron wants minimum wage for french workers and more money of investment bankers.
> 
> You voted for a Merkel puppet.
> 
> In a way it is funny though. As i said, when the next truck smashs through your people, when next officers get shot you hopefully think about that. Your country already is the shithole of europe. From now on it will go only more downwards. I hope we keep a look at our borders to france. Your country is a security risk.
> 
> @flamer84 @vostok



Do you even know Macron's policies ? You are talking out of emotion. I can't blame you. 

As for the sh*thole of Europe,you will be happy to find us again ready to bail out you when you go nearly bankrupt next time. I love Italy and its people,I also have much to say about your country,but I won't.

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## vostok

ValerioAurelius said:


> I´m done with you. You are a traitor to your own people. You voted for a Goldman Sachs fag. You voted for stagnation.
> 
> Macron gives no security. He stands for more influx of terrorists.
> Macron wants minimum wage for french workers and more money of investment bankers.
> 
> You voted for a Merkel puppet.
> 
> In a way it is funny though. As i said, when the next truck smashs through your people, when next officers get shot you hopefully think about that. Your country already is the shithole of europe. From now on it will go only more downwards. I hope we keep a look at our borders to france. Your country is a security risk.
> 
> @flamer84 @vostok


Just another pitiable Hollande, whose approval rating in 1 year will be at the level of 2%. And all French people will be very sorry to have chosen him, and in the meantime, hundreds of thousands of "asylum seekers" will arrive to France.
But it is not the end. It is only 1st tour.

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## DejanSRB

Too bad that Fillon lose. 
The perfect example that decency is not welcomed on European political scene.

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## HannibalBarca

DejanSRB said:


> Too bad that Fillon lose.
> The perfect example that decency is not welcomed on European political scene.


He was corrupt ... Maybe in other countries it's ok..but not in France... 



ValerioAurelius said:


> Best remark from magazine here:
> 
> Macron and lePen both go into the 2nd round. None of the two could be president of a united France. The election shows that the nation is shattered.
> 
> I can agree with that. It just shows that France is broken beyond repair.


nope since Macron can get over 55-60%...

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## hussain0216

ValerioAurelius said:


> What happened that you became a leftist cuck? I did always believe that you are not that way. I know its hard to judge people but i actually feel strange that i misjudged you that much. I actually believed you cared for your nation. Now you hail a leftist fag who wants open borders and let more ISIS in. You hail someone who supports terrorism and war against his own people.
> 
> You support someone who wants crush the workers with his neo liberal bullshit. You support a Merkel minion.



You seem upset


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## LA se Karachi

ValerioAurelius said:


> It just shows that France is broken beyond repair.




No, Macron finishing first showed that France is alive and well.

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## bobo6661

Bleh i was wrong was betting Marcon vs Fillon

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> he is a bankster. He want open borders. He wants more "refugees". He propably will take 500.000 from Merkel who smashed Germany into the wall. He wants crush wages for workers. He stands for Goldmann Sachs. He want cust down welfare. He is a neo liberal.
> 
> Did he already say how much money he want pay Algeria for colonialism? Did he promise a specific amount yet? Afaik he want take as much from french people as possible.



Well see you wrong... He's against mass migration...
And it's notGoldman sachs in France... it's Rocthchield 
and Wage gonna get higher.. A tax will be deleted... 

As for Algeria... who asked money from who???

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## DejanSRB

HannibalBarca said:


> He was corrupt ... Maybe in other countries it's ok..but not in France...
> 
> 
> nope since Macron can get over 55-60%...



You seems like a reasonable person. Do you really think there is anywhere in the world, one, just one politician without corruption scandals.
Even JFK has numerous corruption scandals for such a short time of presidency.

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## HannibalBarca

DejanSRB said:


> You seems like a reasonable person. Do you really think there is anywhere in the world, one, just one politician without corruption scandals.
> Even JFK has numerous corruption scandals for such a short time of presidency.



Macron do not  At least no one found about it till this day.
He's a new comer.. 2 years only in politics...

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## DejanSRB

HannibalBarca said:


> Macron do not  At least no one found about it till this day.



I really dont know how old are you. It is not my bussines. But never, ever believe in politicians. I made same mistake on october 2000. Just wait. You will see for 10-15 years. God bless you.

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## ValerioAurelius

Meanwhile in Frogistan they want secure Eiffel tower with security glass 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-wall-built-around-base-eiffel-tower-protect/



@Vergennes 

In a way thats a good thing. The more this hell hole tumbles into chaos, the better for Italy.

After all we had zero terrorist attacks yet. I can advice anyone to avoid France. Its definitly not safe. 

While his people get smashed by trucks, shot and maimed, he praised mass immigration

https://qz.com/956570/emmanuel-macr...ential-candidates-who-supports-globalization/

You cant make this up.


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## HannibalBarca

DejanSRB said:


> I really dont know how old are you. It is not my bussines. But never, ever believe in politicians. I made same mistake on october 2000. Just wait. You will see for 10-15 years. God bless you.



No one is stupid to believe 100% someone... ppl don't even believe 100% their ownparents let aloneothers.

As for France it's more a vote to the "Less bad among" and " balanced program"
And Macron suits the most among all. since Radicals/Extremist are not the solution.

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## LA se Karachi

ValerioAurelius said:


> In a way thats a good thing. The more this hell hole tumbles into chaos, the better for Italy.




France has one of the highest birth rates in Europe, a stable economy, and is one of the most important countries in Europe along with Germany. It's economic, demographic, and political situation are _far _better than Italy. France is no "hell hole". It's doing fine, and proved that yet again today. 

And as an Italian, I don't think you're in any position to criticize. France may not be perfect, no country is. But it's doing a lot better than Italy has over the past 10 years.

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## bobo6661

ValerioAurelius said:


> While his people get smashed by trucks, shot and maimed, he praised mass immigration





ValerioAurelius said:


> https://qz.com/956570/emmanuel-macr...ential-candidates-who-supports-globalization/
> 
> You cant make this up.



Did you even read what you posted? ...

"Mélenchon, Hamon, and Macron all oppose quotas, but Mélenchon has proposed reversing (paywall) the onslaught of migrants by addressing the problem’s root causes (for instance, environmental damage and war)."

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> France is a shithole. Ever were there? Its dirty and shabby there. It has gargantuan terrorist problem. It has large areas where the state has lost control. I think thats ok. I hope it gets worse.
> 
> @Vergennes did they already install road blocks at your home? You know, just in case.



At least we've got the chance to see your true face 

As For France One Thing:

*Vive La France et Vive La République !!*

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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> It was the safest choice of all. (It is my opnion) Has a pretty good project,is clean and is a good compromise between the extremes from the right and the left. Someone who will not destroy our country and the EU.


Congratulations,your prediction was right.
Good luck in the last round(im sure he will win it).

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> France has one of the highest birth rates in Europe, a stable economy, and is one of the most important countries in Europe along with Germany. It's economic, demographic, and political situation are _far _better than Italy. France is no "hell hole". It's doing fine, and proved that yet again today.
> 
> And as an Italian, I don't think you're in any position to criticize. France may not be perfect, no country is. But it's doing a lot better than Italy has over the past 10 years.



Italy is a great country with great people. I have much respect for them,Valerio gives a bad image of this country and its people. He's disappointed with the result and it is understandable. He can continue to bark,but France made a choice and everyone has to respect it.

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## BHarwana

Le Pen and Macron it is then


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## Nevsky

HannibalBarca said:


> And Macron suits the most among all. since Radicals/Extremist are not the solution.


Pretty much.My opinion is kind of the same.Macron means stabillity, no radical change, things will go on the same path as they did with Hollande, there probably will be some differences, but not as big as Le Pen offers.
Anyway, good luck to the French people, they know what is best for them, and if they make mistake, they will surely know how to fix it.They know how to make revolutions that can change the world.

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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> Italy is a great country with great people. I have much respect for them,Valerio gives a bad image of this country and its people. He's disappointed with the result and it is understandable. He can continue to bark,but France made a choice and everyone has to respect it.


I see that Fillon supports Macron in the second round which is a good thing.

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## Vergennes

T-123456 said:


> I see that Fillon supports Macron in the second round which is a good thing.



Everyone else is calling to vote for him. The strategy is "everyone but Le Pen".

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## HannibalBarca

T-123456 said:


> I see that Fillon supports Macron in the second round which is a good thing.



Even if Fillion ask to Vote MAcron... there is a good part of his voters who are hardliners..who may jump on Lepen Side...


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## LA se Karachi

ValerioAurelius said:


> France is a shithole. Ever were there? Its dirty and shabby there.




But Italy is perfectly clean, I suppose? We have dirty areas here in the US as well. You don't?



ValerioAurelius said:


> It has gargantuan terrorist problem.




A lot of countries have terrorist problems. But as a whole, Europe has thankfully suffered far less from terrorist attacks than Muslims countries. The world has to address the root political and economic problems in the countries they come from to eradicate it. 



ValerioAurelius said:


> It has large areas where the state has lost control. I think thats ok. I hope it gets worse.




France does need to do a lot to improve the social and economic situation of its poor neighborhoods. But if it does, it will be fine.



Vergennes said:


> Italy is a great country with great people. I have much respect for them,Valerio gives a bad image of this country and its people. He's disappointed with the result and it is understandable. He can continue to bark,but France made a choice and everyone has to respect it.




I know. Italy is one of my favorite countries in Europe for its rich culture and cuisine. The political and social developments there worry me quite a bit though, however.

But yes, France made its choice and it should be respected.

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Meanwhile in Frogistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> France is the prime example for a shithole. But it seems many there like it that way.
> 
> Her @Vergennes will Macron suck it up like Hollande and visit criminals in hospital? Maybe offer special service?



Your first Image comes from 2005 riot... nothing to do with Terro neither Migrants...

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## T-123456

HannibalBarca said:


> Even if Fillion ask to Vote MAcron... there is a good part of his voters who are hardliners..who may jump on Lepen Side...


In Western Europe,populists cant win,never ever.
The people wont let them.



ValerioAurelius said:


> Meanwhile in Frogistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> France is the prime example for a shithole. But it seems many there like it that way.
> 
> Her @Vergennes will Macron suck it up like Hollande and visit criminals in hospital? Maybe offer special service?


Why do you hate France,its a Western country?

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## Louiq XIV

ValerioAurelius said:


> Your country already is the shithole of europe.



vtfe fdp.

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## bobo6661

T-123456 said:


> In Western Europe,populists cant win,never ever.
> The people wont let them.


Ek hem ... UK


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## Vergennes

T-123456 said:


> In Western Europe,populists cant win,never ever.
> The people wont let them.



Some people don't know that even if Le Pen wins she would have to secure a majority in the following legislative elections. Something that will never ever happen. 289 seats needed to form a government and run the country. She currently has two. No other party would want to be part of a coalition.

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## T-123456

bobo6661 said:


> Ek hem ... UK


And who is the populist that won in the UK?


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## A.P. Richelieu

Vergennes said:


> Everyone else is calling to vote for him. The strategy is "everyone but Le Pen".



They reported in our morning news that the leader in the polls was TRUMP - Oops sorry.
Quicky withdrawn!

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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> Some people don't know that even if Le Pen wins she would have to secure a majority in the following legislative elections. Something that will never ever happen. 289 seats needed to form a government and run the country. She currently has two. No other party would want to be part of a coalition.


Yes i heard that yesterday,although she has so much support she only has 2 seats,strange system btw.

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## HannibalBarca

Whatever Happen in this 1st Round with FInal Results With either Lepen in front of Macron or vice Versa...

The 2nd round is almost done... With mostly Macron winning.

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## T-123456

ValerioAurelius said:


> France is a shithole. Just visit and see.
> 
> My girl and i had a cruise in 2015. The tour started on la spezia, marseille, Barcelona, mallorca, napoli. We visited evry city but used the day in marseille to use the spa on the ship. I had no intention to waste money in that dirt hole.
> 
> I dont hate france. Its just below my standard and now they want that goldmann sachs fag it will get even worse.
> 
> I have a flight to Lima in octobre and there is an option via Paris or Madrid. I will not use via Paris. Its not safe there.


This shows that you havent been to real France,go to the rural countryside and see France.

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## HannibalBarca

AHAHAHAH - RT Russia blocked from entering Macron meeting - AHHAHAHAH

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## Vergennes

T-123456 said:


> Yes i heard that yesterday,although she has so much support she only has 2 seats,strange system btw.



Yes because the number of seats earned isn't based on score.
The voting system of the legislative election is a two round system where voters choose their MP in each of the France's 577 constituencies. If you want an exemple,the greens (more than a dozen) got more seats despite having much less votes than the National Front.

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## HannibalBarca

T-123456 said:


> This shows that you havent been to real France,go to the rural countryside and see France.



Marseille is beautiful... this guy is used to Naples garbage bags everywhere... and His peacefull Mafioso in every inch of South of Italy...

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Why waste money to visit such a place? I dont do all this training to get smashed by a truck.



Then don't  You can keep your 50€...

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## Vergennes

T-123456 said:


> This shows that you havent been to real France,go to the rural countryside and see France.



If Marine won he wouldn't be trashing France. But I understand him,loosing elections can make you go mad. But he's not French nor lives in France,I don't know why he's so mad,how will Macron's election affect his everyday life ? He wants to impose us a candidate,but will not be the one being affected by her policies. We will. I will.

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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> How far is Nice from Marseille?


Google is your friend...therefore use it 



Vergennes said:


> If Marine won he wouldn't be trashing France. But I understand him,loosing elections can make you go mad. But he's not French nor lives in France,I don't know why he's so mad,how will Macron's election affect his everyday life ? He wants to impose us a candidate,but will not be the one being affected by her policies. We will. I will.



You can get angry...but with respect. Something he lacks.

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## Vergennes

@Louiq XIV @Taygibay 

Donc Le Drian va rempiler ?

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## T-123456

Vergennes said:


> If Marine won he wouldn't be trashing France. But I understand him,loosing elections can make you go mad. But he's not French nor lives in France,I don't know why he's so mad,how will Macron's election affect his everyday life ? He wants to impose us a candidate,but will not be the one being affected by her policies. We will. I will.


When a person has a sh!ty life,that person looks for ways to get rid of his anger and bitterness,some use drugs or alcohol and some use the internet,its just his way of dealing with it.

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## bobo6661

ValerioAurelius said:


> We have a border with you. France is a security risk. Your french terrorists can come here and murder in Italy. Its just natural, that i dont want this.
> 
> Well it is not done yet. I pray to god something happens that corrects this craziness. That "something" can be anything.

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## LA se Karachi

ValerioAurelius said:


> I pray to god something happens that corrects this craziness. That "something" can be anything.


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## LA se Karachi

_"*The euro has hit a five month high*, as the early polling figures from France reassure the financial markets, writes Graeme Wearden:


The single currency jumped almost 2% when trading began in Asia, surging over $1.091. It also rallied 1.5% against the British pound to around 85p. Investors had been nervous that Emmanuel Macron might fail to reach the run-off, as he’s seen as the candidate best equipped to prevent Marine Le Pen winning the presidency."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live_

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## Vergennes

Thanks to all those mobilized members of the security forces who made sure the citizens go vote safely.

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## LA se Karachi

Conservative candidate François Fillon has conceded defeat and called on his supporters to back Emmanuel Macron in the second round:

_"Despite all my efforts, my determination, I have not succedded in convincing my fellow countrymen and women. The obstacles in my path were too numerous and too cruel. This defeat is mine, I accept the responsibility, it is mine and mine alone to bear. 

We have to choose what is best for our country. Abstention is not in my genes, above all when an extremist party is close to power. The Front National is well known for its violence its intolérance, and its programme would lead our country to bankruptcy and Europe into chaos.

Extremism can can only bring unhappiness and division to France. There is no other choice than to vote against the far right. I will vote for Emmanuel Macron. I consider it my duty to tell you this frankly. It is up to you to reflect on what is best for your country, and for your children."_

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> We have election in Italy soon and i know my people are more intelligent than the french and will know what to vote. For Italy and our future. France can at least serve us as a negative example.
> 
> There is still hope something big happen that make lePen president. If not, i hope with all my heart, that Macron fails and france gers even worse than now.
> 
> If Macron wins, we have no partner to work with for our future, against the globalists.



Your beloved Forza Italia is far from the Democratic Party and 5stars movement in the polls. And good luck to you if 5stars win,seeing how they manage Roma not adding all the scandals.

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## waz

Oh Macron v Le Pen, oh my God!

Both outsiders.

Fillion is telling the right to vote for Macron!

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## bobo6661

Vergennes said:


> Your beloved Forza Italia is far from the Democratic Party and 5stars movement in the polls. And good luck to you if 5stars win,seeing how they manage Roma not adding all the scandals.


Not to mention this pedofile

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> @Louiq XIV @Taygibay
> 
> Donc Le Drian va rempiler ?
> 
> View attachment 392540



J'espère bien ! Macron en tête c'est quand même une (bonne) surprise.

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## HannibalBarca

bobo6661 said:


> Not to mention this pedofile



And his "Bunga Bunga" parties with Ghaddafi...

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## waz

HannibalBarca said:


> And his "Bunga Bunga" parties with Ghaddafi...



I've always wanted to know what Bunga Bunga means, apparently it's just a silly name for his shenanigans.

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## xenon54 out

HannibalBarca said:


> This is the pic used by the French interior gov to motivate French voters.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/856055492279504897
> @cabatli_53 @xenon54 @OguzSenturk @Combat-Master @Sinan @what @T-123456 @KediKesenFare @Vergennes


They could have taken this pic.

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## HannibalBarca

xenon54 said:


> They could have taken this pic.



The 2 guys behind screw it up...

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## HannibalBarca

Just for the Lol of it... At least they feel their own medecine sometimes... 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/856228682356080640
And if you check their Feed...They will not tweet about the vote and such...but only Reporting
"Protest" in Paris... 

*Butthurting LVL 10^999999999999999 !!!
*
Seems she's feeling being in Syria/Iraq or ... Central Moscow...During Corruption March from 1-2 weeks back

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## Śakra

Idk why our resident Italian is such a hothead, perhaps because of roid rage? Ive stayed in both walled city Rome and Champs-Elysees area of Paris. Paris is much cleaner than Rome imo. There arent industrial size garbage bins on the street in Paris like there is in Rome. Tbh every city I've been to is much dirtier than Vancouver. It's like mud wrestlers fighting over who is covered in more dirty. Yea technically one of you is more so but that doesnt change the fact you both are covered in dirt.


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## LA se Karachi

*Results so far:*

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## flamer84

ValerioAurelius said:


> Meanwhile in Frogistan they want secure Eiffel tower with security glass
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-wall-built-around-base-eiffel-tower-protect/
> 
> 
> 
> @Vergennes
> 
> In a way thats a good thing. The more this hell hole tumbles into chaos, the better for Italy.
> 
> After all we had zero terrorist attacks yet. I can advice anyone to avoid France. Its definitly not safe.
> 
> While his people get smashed by trucks, shot and maimed, he praised mass immigration
> 
> https://qz.com/956570/emmanuel-macr...ential-candidates-who-supports-globalization/
> 
> You cant make this up.


Yes,you can't make this up.A conchita wurtz/fag lover like you masquerading as a right wing voter and lecturing others about conservatorism



HannibalBarca said:


> Marseille is beautiful... this guy is used to Naples garbage bags everywhere... and His peacefull Mafioso in every inch of South of Italy...


Marseille is a garbage dump


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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> It was the safest choice of all. (It is my opnion) Has a pretty good project,is clean and is a good compromise between the extremes from the right and the left. Someone who will not destroy our country and the EU.



I can see why you voted for him....but my prediction is he will just be a hollande version 2.0.

You really think he is going to be reform and empower the French police for example (who will be voting for Le Pen it seems largely)? I mean some of the videos and accounts I have seen are truly shocking of the state of French police in their implementation of law and order in outright hostile areas. Is it even a priority for Macron?

There is enough check and balance within France to control Le Pen more "Extremist" agendas (esp given the parliament legislation will be stacked against her and she will need to make compromise). Thats why I feel France needs to give someone new a chance (so there is a positive tension in bureaucracy)...not same old statists/centrists (who bring nothing new, dont seek to try change course)....otherwise its just a slow decline overall. BTW, about 75% of French people want to remain in the EU, all Le Pen was promising was a referendum to gauge this sentiment....I doubt France will leave the EU any time soon. This kind of thing extends to many other of her positions too. If she is no good either, then at least you have conclusively proven so (at little real risk as I see it given French parliament)....rather than thinking later "maybe if we did back then etc..." in hindsight.

But hey maybe I'm wrong about it (its why I do not criticize your choice), lets see I guess. No excuses for France whatever happens...there were genuine change agents this time around. If the course you are on seems fine to enough French people, so be it. Either way impact of Le Pen is definitely felt this time more than ever before....I don't think that will die down in any big way after this election even if she loses. It may actually make her stronger for next time (esp if Macron allows the decline in internal security)....depending on how her support base is consolidated and how that would probably allow her to seek inroads into more places (like the cities etc.)

If Macron truly implements a full scale upgrading and empowerment of French Police (its really the main issue for me), I will be extremely happy in being proven wrong....and that he indeed could be what France needs. Please keep me updated on that should that be the result on may 7th.


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## Vergennes

flamer84 said:


> Marseille is a garbage dump



No it's not. It is truly a beautiful city,of course the poor northern neighborhoods are not,because of crime,poverty,drug dealing etc. Some areas literally abandoned.



Nilgiri said:


> I can see why you voted for him....but my prediction is he will just be a hollande version 2.0.
> 
> You really think he is going to be reform and empower the French police for example (who will be voting for Le Pen it seems largely)? I mean some of the videos and accounts I have seen are truly shocking of the state of French police in their implementation of law and order in outright hostile areas. Is it even a priority for Macron?
> 
> There is enough check and balance within France to control Le Pen more "Extremist" agendas (esp given the parliament legislation will be stacked against her and she will need to make compromise). Thats why I feel France needs to give someone new a chance (so there is a positive tension in bureaucracy)...not same old statists/centrists (who bring nothing new, dont seek to try change course)....otherwise its just a slow decline overall. BTW, about 75% of French people want to remain in the EU, all Le Pen was promising was a referendum to gauge this sentiment....I doubt France will leave the EU any time soon. This kind of thing extends to many other of her positions too. If she is no good either, then at least you have conclusively proven so (at little real risk as I see it given French parliament)....rather than thinking later "maybe if we did back then etc..." in hindsight.
> 
> But hey maybe I'm wrong about it (its why I do not criticize your choice), lets see I guess. No excuses for France whatever happens...there were genuine change agents this time around. If the course you are on seems fine to enough French people, so be it. Either way impact of Le Pen is definitely felt this time more than ever before....I don't think that will die down in any big way after this election even if she loses. It may actually make her stronger for next time (esp if Macron allows the decline in internal security)....depending on how her support base is consolidated and how that would probably allow her to seek inroads into more places (like the cities etc.)
> 
> If Macron truly implements a full scale upgrading and empowerment of French Police (its really the main issue for me), I will be extremely happy in being proven wrong....and that he indeed could be what France needs. Please keep me updated on that should that be the result on may 7th.



We cannot judge someone who didn't even win this election yet,isn't in charge and didn't form a government yet.
We cannot really say that the National Front or the Le Pen factory are something new as this party is here since the 70s. Some people have enough of always seeing the same faces and that's why Macron and his movement gained so much momentum in about 1 year since its creation. Forgot to add that many of his ministers and half of his MPs will be from the civil society.

Of course if he disappoints people and the situation in the country doesn't improve,it will make the way for Marine Le Pen,or maybe her daughter next time.

As for security,this will mean the end of the massive bureaucracy,a Police more integrated in the field,including the "hot suburbs",a better trained Police with also the opening of new Police schools,a better equipped force (equipments,vehicles) and of course the recruitment of 10K Police officers and Gendarmes in the first three years. (7.500 Police and 2.500 Gendarmes.)

If you want to read more : --------------------> https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/securite



LA se Karachi said:


> *Results so far:*
> 
> View attachment 392562
> 
> 
> View attachment 392563
> 
> 
> View attachment 392564



For the first time,the candidates representing the parties that ruled France during the past 30-40 years are not present in the second round.

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## Louiq XIV

Projected vote flow between the 1rst and the second round.

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## Mage

I was hoping Fillon would make it to round 2 somehow.....without his scandals he probably would have 

But the guy who likes older women seemed more appealing to people...I blame French Aunties for this 



Nilgiri said:


> my prediction is he will just be a hollande version 2.0.


Don't say this boldly 


Spoiler



This is my prediction too

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## LA se Karachi

Louiq XIV said:


> Projected vote flow between the 1rst and the second round.




It seems more of Fillon's supporters are going to vote for Macron than Le Pen.








Vergennes said:


> For the first time,the candidates representing the parties that ruled France during the past 30-40 years are not present in the second round.




It's interesting to see Le Pen and Mélenchon finishing first and second, respectively, in Southern France and along the Belgian border. These areas have high concentrations of working-class voters, I'm guessing. And to a lesser extent, it's interesting to see Macron finish ahead of Fillon in most of eastern France.



Nilgiri said:


> You really think he is going to be reform and empower the French police for example (who will be voting for Le Pen it seems largely)?




Well, the police officer that responded to the Guardian isn't voting for Le Pen. You could be right, but I wouldn't generalize too much.

_"*René, 48, Versailles, police officer: *“It’s more a default choice. I don’t want an extremist in charge, nor a corrupt Fillon. I hope that Macron will take some measures to make the country go forward instead of living in fear.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-58fcd58ae4b04ebe6bdfc78f#liveblog-navigation_

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## Taygibay

ValerioAurelius said:


> We dont have trucks plowing through people like you have.



Who'd want to attack a target of such little importance?
Even terrorists compute the cost to result ratio of an op.

Grow a pair, act boldly, change the world _then_ be attacked?

And here's to the well-being of all Italians, even you, Tay.

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## ValerioAurelius

Taygibay said:


> Who'd want to attack a target of such little importance?
> Even terrorists compute the cost to result ratio of an op.
> 
> Grow a pair, act boldly, change the world _then_ be attacked?
> 
> And here's to the well-being of all Italians, even you, Tay.



Roma is a more important target than paris. We were able to prevent all attack. I doubt macron has the ability and is hard enough to do what must be done. He is the candidate of the banks.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Roma is a more important target than paris. We were able to prevent all attack. I doubt macron has the ability and is hard enough to do what must be done. He is the candidate of the banks.



Italy is not a High important targets for Terro... In the End ... Useless.
Every foreign terro who striked EU passed by ITALY and directly went to France/Germany...

And one of them even CAME BACK TO ITALY... to hide 
In a way.. You are right.. Italy is ... SAFE... for them...

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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> Italy is not a High important targets for Terro... In the End ... Useless.
> Every foreign terro who striked EU passed by ITALY and directly went to France/Germany...
> 
> And one of them even CAME BACK TO ITALY... to hide
> In a way.. You are right.. Italy is ... SAFE... for them...



He got killed 2 h after he entered italy. France and Germany unable to get. In italy we have strict laws. The slightest islamist comment gets them deported plus their family. In france and germany they have a free hand. 

But its not tbe matter. Macron is a slimy weakling. The candidate of the banks. Installed by goldmann sachs. He will end worse than hollande.


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> He got killed 2 h after he entered italy. France and Germany unable to get. In italy we have strict laws. The slightest islamist comment gets them deported plus their family. In france and germany they have a free hand.
> 
> But its not tbe matter. Macron is a slimy weakling. The candidate of the banks. Installed by goldmann sachs. He will end worse than hollande.



He was found thanks to France footage of the train... 

And as I said before there is no Goldman sachs here... it's Rothschild...
As for your Conclusion... THe Vote is not Over..your Beloved LePen "could" (mostly not) but still with a slighty chance may "Win"... So stop your childish attacks...

AND most importantly!!!!

IT'S OUR VOTE! NOT YOURS! OUR VOTEEE! 

So try to clean in front of your door first and then come back to us with your Opinion about our decisions... 

BEst regards.

ps: LAst Time I answer to your post on this Subject.

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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi @Philia

"We won!
We won !
We won!"

"Who's that ? The National Front or Macron's team ?"

"Nope,it's the polling institutes".

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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> He was found thanks to France footage of the train...
> 
> And as I said before there is no Goldman sachs here... it's Rothschild...
> As for your Conclusion... THe Vote is not Over..your Beloved LePen "could" (mostly not) but still with a slighty chance may "Win"... So stop your childish attacks...
> 
> AND most importantly!!!!
> 
> IT'S OUR VOTE! NOT YOURS! OUR VOTEEE!
> 
> So try to clean in front of your door first and then come back to us with your Opinion about our decisions...
> 
> BEst regards.
> 
> ps: LAst Time I answer to your post on this Subject.




Its all the same. The banking clan. He was introduced by the banking system as their neo liberal canditate. In that way its positive. He will put alot more pressure on the people to exploit even the last money from them. The press in europe says it pretty much, the election is a desaster. It shows how destroyed the social tissue is.

Macron pretty much burries the workers finally. The corrupt system is over. 

France might get a neoliberal president who wants squeeze out the workers and has zero security concept. Meanwhile the FN got the best result ever. If Macron fucks up, which he will, they dont even need an election next time. 

Also there were no images from france. Anus Amri was send to hell when he entered Italy. He was stopped by police (both were btw facists and members of Forza Italia) and destroyed. He chocked for minutes on his own blood. It was amusing. 

Its a matter of fact that no other nation has such an efficient system against islamists than Italy. 24/7 surveillance. The smallest facebook comment leads to instant imprisonment and deportation. Something MAcron is unable to do because he is patheticly weak. 

While we storm houses of islamists because a FB post, put them and their families in prison and then deportation within days, france allows cop killers to walk free and behead priests in a church. 

Difference between Italy and France:

Italy:

We make terrorist scum cry:






Meanwhile in France:

Oh lala ma poor baby. Did the evil police hurt you when you did crime and violance?






Meanwhile in Berlin:

What is the bidding...my master


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## bobo6661

Vergennes said:


> We won!
> We won !
> We won!"
> 
> "Who's that ? The National Front or Macron's team ?"
> 
> "Nope,it's the polling institutes".



 Agree with all those missed polls i think they had to get it properly this time

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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi

The final results :






-
The French living abroad have voted at 40,4% for Macron,followed by ;

François Fillon : 26,3
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 15,8%
Benoît Hamon : 6,9%
Marine Le Pen : 6,5%
-
He also got 51,13% of the votes from the French citizens living in the US.









ValerioAurelius said:


> Its all the same. The banking clan. He was introduced by the banking system as their neo liberal canditate. In that way its positive. He will put alot more pressure on the people to exploit even the last money from them. The press in europe says it pretty much, the election is a desaster. It shows how destroyed the social tissue is.
> 
> Macron pretty much burries the workers finally. The corrupt system is over.
> 
> France might get a neoliberal president who wants squeeze out the workers and has zero security concept. Meanwhile the FN got the best result ever. If Macron fucks up, which he will, they dont even need an election next time.
> 
> Also there were no images from france. Anus Amri was send to hell when he entered Italy. He was stopped by police (both were btw facists and members of Forza Italia) and destroyed. He chocked for minutes on his own blood. It was amusing.
> 
> Its a matter of fact that no other nation has such an efficient system against islamists than Italy. 24/7 surveillance. The smallest facebook comment leads to instant imprisonment and deportation. Something MAcron is unable to do because he is patheticly weak.
> 
> While we storm houses of islamists because a FB post, put them and their families in prison and then deportation within days, france allows cop killers to walk free and behead priests in a church.
> 
> Difference between Italy and France:
> 
> Italy:
> 
> We make terrorist scum cry:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile in France:
> 
> Oh lala ma poor baby. Did the evil police hurt you when you did crime and violance?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile in Berlin:
> 
> What is the bidding...my master



Keeping with your BS when another Italian member debunked all of your fake claims ?  @HannibalBarca

As for the Berlin terrorist,he was killed during a routine identity check,the cops in front of him didn't know who he was,he was shot after he shot the cops. Done with your claims...

As for Macron going to Berlin,pretty all of the candidates went there as it is our most important partner and we need Germany + a good dialogue to reform the EU.

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## Vergennes

ValerioAurelius said:


> Sorry you talk nonsense. None of my claims was debunked. He was not even italian.
> 
> I proved my point froggy
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-italy-prison-idUSKBN14P20B
> 
> https://www.stripes.com/news/italy-...ip-deportation-policies-1.434055#.WP4_VIjyiUk
> 
> After i did so he run away and was never seen again. He could not even speak italian.
> 
> I find weakness disgusting. I know your nation is the symbolisation of weakness. But you should not celebrate it.
> 
> You already cleared your bed for some african migrant from calais?
> 
> Did buy some teddy bears?
> 
> I wonder, do they schedule this illumination on Eiffel Tower after the usual mass terror attacks over there? I mean it has become part of french folklore.
> 
> But to come to politics and ignore that extreme weakness from France we must realize one thing in Italy. We stand alone now. France is nothing but a German colony. Italy stands alone with its anti austerity plans. Maybe we can get spain and portugal on our side. or concentrate more on eastern europe to achieve something so europe can get better.



Italy is currently struggling to deal with the massive influx of migrants from Africa,south Italy became an abandoned ground to the migrants spreading havoc. Everydays you save thousands of them from the sea despite what you claim. I see the images on TV. 
France put back controls at the Italian border and is sending back to you those that try to get through.

As for Italy,you are in no position to negociate anything or to propose some initiatives. Italy is on the verge of collapse with a crumbling banking system and with a public debt of +130% ?


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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> The final results :




Final Results:






Fillon won only five departments. Personally, I thought he would win more. 

Still, Fillon did pretty well (given the scandal), finishing with about 20% of the vote overall.



Vergennes said:


> The French living abroad have voted at 40,4% for Macron,followed by ;
> 
> François Fillon : 26,3
> Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 15,8%
> Benoît Hamon : 6,9%
> Marine Le Pen : 6,5%




Lol, Le Pen finished 5th among French voters living abroad.

I assume @Taygibay was one of those who voted.



Vergennes said:


> He also got 51,13% of the votes from the French citizens living in the US.



Good to hear that. 

Vive la France!

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Final Results:
> 
> View attachment 392803
> 
> 
> Fillon won only five departments. Personally, I thought he would win more.
> 
> Still, Fillon did pretty well (given the scandal), finishing with about 20% of the vote overall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lol, Le Pen finished 5th among French voters living abroad.
> 
> I assume @Taygibay was one of those who voted.
> 
> 
> 
> Good to hear that.
> 
> Vive la France!



Even Paris,despite being hit by multiple terror attacks,rejected massively Le Pen.

Emmanuel Macron : 34,83 %
François Fillon : 26,45 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 19,56 %
Benoît Hamon 10,18 %
Marine Le Pen : 4,99 %

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> Italy is currently struggling to deal with the massive influx of migrants from Africa,south Italy became an abandoned ground to the migrants spreading havoc. Everydays you save thousands of them from the sea despite what you claim. I see the images on TV.
> France put back controls at the Italian border and is sending back to you those that try to get through.
> 
> As for Italy,you are in no position to negociate anything or to propose some initiatives. Italy is on the verge of collapse with a crumbling banking system and with a public debt of +130% ?



Of course we do, because the pathetic EU. The very pathetic EU you praise.

Also whats your problem with our debt? In the end you will pay it anyways.

Its the bomb that will bust EU. I love our debt. It should be much bigger. 

Salvation through destruction.

I must also correct you about southern italy. Its not like in your dirty france. You live in the dirt and celebrate that. Evryone we ship in will end in France anyways. They dont get support in Italy. They want to France or Germany. And thats where they will be brought. 

Also nowhere did i claim we stopped "rescue" them. I said we round them up in camps. And push for a harder stance. Its fags like Macron who prevent that. He loves his migrants. Thats why i want the EU to die. It will die anyways. You just push it a little back and make it worse then.

@Vergennes 

Italy currently tries to clumb down the mediterranean route. We train libyan coast guard, make contracts there to bring all them there. Our coast guard retreats from libyan coast and our general attorny collected evidence that NGO work togetehr with human traficcers. The goal is clear to lock this down. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39686239

So far cuck countries like Germany and France were the main blocks to stop this madness. 

So what now? What will France do? Will your Macron be hard enough to stand on our side to end this? Or cuck away? If i rememebr right he praised Merkel and is pro "refugees".


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## Vergennes

*French election: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to fight for presidency*

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39689385

Less than two weeks before going back to the polls and choose our future.
Macron and Le Pen will face each other during a decisive TV debate on the 3rd of May.

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## faithfulguy

Vergennes said:


> *French election: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to fight for presidency*
> 
> 
> Less than two weeks before going back to the polls and choose our future.
> Macron and Le Pen will face each other during a decisive TV debate on the 3rd of May.



This election will determine the fate of EU. There is no purpose for EU to continue if The French exit EU as well.

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## Saho

In short, it's the Donald Trump of France (Le Pen) vs Hilary Clinton of France (Macron).

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## Louiq XIV

Saho said:


> In short, it's the Donald Trump of France (Le Pen) vs Hilary Clinton of France (Macron).


Yep I think you can say something like that.

But the winner won't be the same this time because Marine/Donald's ideas are way too extreme for the French people.


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## Mage

Saho said:


> Hilary Clinton of France


In my opinion Macron is more comparable to Sanders than Clinton.And Le Pen is actually more like a mix of Clinton and Trump....


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## Vergennes

*Le Pen steps aside as head of National Front in bid to woo more voters*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170425/le-pen-steps-aside-as-head-of-national-front

*Where will Marine Le Pen find the 50 percent of French voters she needs?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170425/where-will-marine-le-pen-get-her-second-round-votes-from

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> *Le Pen steps aside as head of National Front in bid to woo more voters*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170425/le-pen-steps-aside-as-head-of-national-front
> 
> *Where will Marine Le Pen find the 50 percent of French voters she needs?*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170425/where-will-marine-le-pen-get-her-second-round-votes-from




Wow, that was a bit unexpected.

I assume she's doing this to distance herself from the National Front as a whole. She seems to realize that there is no chance of the National Front even coming close to securing a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. And perhaps because of Macron's appeal to some for leaving the old parties behind as well.

One of the most interesting questions is how many seats each party will get. Will _En Marche !_ and the Socialist Party both be running candidates in this election? If so, it will be a very interesting election. It will also be interesting to see how many seats the National Front and The Republicans get. Will most conservatives voting for Le Pen also vote for the National Front's candidates to augment her support, in case she wins? Or will they stick with The Republicans?

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Wow, that was a bit unexpected.
> 
> I assume she's doing this to distance herself from the National Front as a whole. She seems to realize that there is no chance of the National Front even coming close to securing a majority in the Assemblée Nationale. And perhaps because of Macron's appeal to some for leaving the old parties behind as well.
> 
> One of the most interesting questions is how many seats each party will get. Will _En Marche !_ and the Socialist Party both be running candidates in this election? If so, it will be a very interesting election. It will also be interesting to see how many seats the National Front and The Republicans get. Will most conservatives voting for Le Pen also vote for the National Front's candidates to augment her support, in case she wins? Or will they stick with The Republicans?



Of course the Presidential election is yet nothing compared to the legislative election. The French voters have always been coherent in their choices and have always given the President they elected a majority in the parliament. En Marche! will present 577 candidates (so 1 in every of France's 577 constituencies) so he's not really worried. But he aknowledges the fact that he couldn't get a majority so is trying to seek some support from the other parties so to build a coalition. (It will depend on with who....)

The Republicans,despite the defeat of their candidate believe that they could get a revenge and get a majority in the parliament and impose to the newly elected President a cohabitation. 

The Socialists' main objective will also be to avoid the total annihilation,similar to the legislative election of 1993.

To be honest,I don't even have the scenario of Le Pen winning this election,let alone how the National Front will fare in the legislative elections. Maybe @Louiq XIV @Taygibay @HannibalBarca can help.

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## Taygibay

Le Pen winning is moderately unlikely. It should be highly unlikely
if the Front Républicain was acted upon but signs point to this not
happening this time which is a mistake or error case by case.

I understand that Mélanchon is positioning himself for the future,
as near of one as the législatives, but it shows another puppet
master wannabe playing a life long combat of fascism against a
position from which to rise. He's all he claims to hate as politicians go!

I won't be surprised if he waivers and recommends abstention ...
as many on the left and right have done already. Is there a Front
Républicain or only a Front National? This isn't 2002 or so it seems.

If no impassioned voice rises from the civil society, more than a third
of voters from all over the spectrum will stay home/cast a white vote.

That leaves just few enough that once Macron's first round 25% is
subtracted ( 65 - 25 = 40 ), there is space for Marine to double her
score ( that's the unlikely part ) and accede to power. So En Marche
needs only three-fourths its initial success to win ...

... but in my opinion France needs much more than that to win also.
The dream for Macron and those that reject fascism is that her score
be as low as possible, as close to her father's as possible, -25% ...

that objective should be clearly stated and repeated by all good men.

Then when the législatives come, the fight will revert to parties and
I'll predict that both the FN and FI will make major gains as there is
another 25% of votes to grab since the demise of the socialist party.

The resulting assembly will make governing almost impossible for the
FN and difficult at best for Macron's loose assemblage.

Holding my breath 'til autumn, Tay.


P.S. @ La Se K : We voted on Saturday!

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## Vergennes

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have both released their campaign posters for this secound round.

*Macron, wink to the right*




Spoiler













En Marche! Presented wednesday a poster that takes up codes, til now used by the right when the electorate of the Republicans can be tempted to vote National Front. If the blue is very present, it is not a coincidence. It is the color of security and serenity. Unlike his previous posters, Emmanuel Macron appears alone, he is no longer in the midst of a crowd. A way to solemnize his campaign. The slogan is new: "Together, France!" Again, it appeals to the memories of right-wing voters. In 1988, Jacques Chirac had the slogan "France together", then in 2002 "France in large, France together". As for Nicolas Sarkozy, he had opted in 2007 for "Together, everything becomes possible".


*Le Pen plays the card of femininity*




Spoiler











In the poster of Marine Le Pen appears, in the background, a library. An image that recalls the official photos of François Mitterrand and Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee. Very visible, her hands are entwined, like a refusal to privilege the left or the right. Like Emmanuel Macron, her jacket is blue, always to pose as the guarantor of the safety of the French. An image counterbalanced by her femininity, which she does not hesitate to put forward. What recalls the words of her campaign clip: "I am a woman and as a woman, I feel as an extreme violence the restrictions of freedoms that multiply through our country". As in the first round, the name "Le Pen" does not appear, but its slogan, "Choose France", highlights her program which favors national preference and federates its voter base.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have both released their campaign posters for this secound round.
> 
> *Macron, wink to the right*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 393204
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> En Marche! Presented wednesday a poster that takes up codes, til now used by the right when the electorate of the Republicans can be tempted to vote National Front. If the blue is very present, it is not a coincidence. It is the color of security and serenity. Unlike his previous posters, Emmanuel Macron appears alone, he is no longer in the midst of a crowd. A way to solemnize his campaign. The slogan is new: "Together, France!" Again, it appeals to the memories of right-wing voters. In 1988, Jacques Chirac had the slogan "France together", then in 2002 "France in large, France together". As for Nicolas Sarkozy, he had opted in 2007 for "Together, everything becomes possible".
> 
> 
> *Le Pen plays the card of femininity*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 393203
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In the poster of Marine Le Pen appears, in the background, a library. An image that recalls the official photos of François Mitterrand and Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee. Very visible, her hands are entwined, like a refusal to privilege the left or the right. Like Emmanuel Macron, her jacket is blue, always to pose as the guarantor of the safety of the French. An image counterbalanced by her femininity, which she does not hesitate to put forward. What recalls the words of her campaign clip: "I am a woman and as a woman, I feel as an extreme violence the restrictions of freedoms that multiply through our country". As in the first round, the name "Le Pen" does not appear, but its slogan, "Choose France", highlights her program which favors national preference and federates its voter base.



Lepen Poster... Head too big...some failed Photoshop skills (Neck problem)...


----------



## Vergennes

* Parliament Majority Attainable, Says Macron's MP Selection Chief *

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ty-attainable-says-macrons-mp-selection-chief

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Of course the Presidential election is yet nothing compared to the legislative election. The French voters have always been coherent in their choices and have always given the President they elected a majority in the parliament. En Marche! will present 577 candidates (so 1 in every of France's 577 constituencies) so he's not really worried. But he aknowledges the fact that he couldn't get a majority so is trying to seek some support from the other parties so to build a coalition. (It will depend on with who....)




I do expect his party to win the most seats, no matter what. But of course, the question remains, will it be enough to govern on its own? 

I suspect that En Marche ! will have to enter into an alliance with others. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to win a majority of seats on their own. As you said, France has always voted to give the President's party a majority in the National Assembly. That could certainly happen this election, as well.



Vergennes said:


> The Republicans,despite the defeat of their candidate believe that they could get a revenge and get a majority in the parliament and impose to the newly elected President a cohabitation.




I doubt they'll be able to get a majority this election without a candidate running for the Presidency, especially with Macron running for President and the emergence of his Center-Left En Marche ! Party. I think that the National Front will make major gains this election, with most of it coming at the expense of The Republicans.



Taygibay said:


> If no impassioned voice rises from the civil society, more than a third of voters from all over the spectrum will stay home/cast a white vote.




I hope not. Since France uses the popular vote to elect its President (a very good thing), every vote counts. Hopefully French voters will realize the importance of this election and avoiding a _Président_ Le Pen. 



Taygibay said:


> ... but in my opinion France needs much more than that to win also. The dream for Macron and those that reject fascism is that her score
> be as low as possible, as close to her father's as possible, -25% ...




That would be best. However, I predict that she will receive around 40% of the vote. Partly because some Mélanchon and Fillon voters (among others) will simply abstain. If turnout was 100% in France, I believe that she would get only about a third of the vote. But turnout won't be anywhere near that high, of course. 



Taygibay said:


> that objective should be clearly stated and repeated by all good men.




I agree.



Taygibay said:


> Then when the législatives come, the fight will revert to parties and
> I'll predict that both the FN and FI will make major gains as there is
> another 25% of votes to grab since the demise of the socialist party.
> 
> The resulting assembly will make governing almost impossible for the
> FN and difficult at best for Macron's loose assemblage.




I agree. I hope neither gains too many seats though. 

My guess is that if En Marche ! fails to secure an outright majority, it will enter into an alliance with the Socialist Party. While they will likely hold only a fraction of the seats that they do now, they could win enough to give Macron a governing majority. He may also try to reach out to members of the UDI or even the Green Party, if necessary. 



Taygibay said:


> P.S. @ La Se K : We voted on Saturday!




Nice! From Pakistan?

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## Taygibay

HannibalBarca said:


> Lepen Poster... Head too big...some failed Photoshop skills (Neck problem)...



Well, of course mec! You do realize that her bloodline seems to favour the
stout Charolais look over that of a gazelle. I mean, if we voted for a sleek
looking Prez first 'n foremost, Macron would beat Chirac's 02 numbers easily!
​
Now Photo_slut_ ( its main use, TBH ) is great at what it does but morphing this :






into this


will leave marks, stretch marks if not watermarks! 




LA se Karachi said:


> He may also try to reach out to members of the UDI or even the Green Party, if necessary.



Actually, he can choose and pick from most parties but the FN. I'm betting
a loose grouping of interests could produce a majority in the reworked Nat.
Assembly post-législatives.
It runs both ways with En Marche being open to new solutions and those of
the diverse platforms smelling a personal chance from that new paradigm.



LA se Karachi said:


> Nice! From Pakistan?



North America actually. I should have been in France but
have to help the son going from school to job these days.

Vivement dimanche en huit, Tay.

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## Vergennes

Quit interesting.

*Polynesia : The ballots air dropped by plane*

*The ballots of the second round of the presidential election will be dropped by plane on May 4 on three islands of Polynesia, too isolated to be served in time by the sea, said today the Ministry of Defense.*

The three islands - Rapa to the south of the Australes archipelago, Tematangi and Hereheretue - "do not have an airport and the shipping links are too rare to ensure a timely delivery of electoral material", said Commander Lionel Delort at the weekly Defense press briefing.

On May 4th, a Falcon 200 Gardian from the French Navy will take off from Tahiti, charged with ballots for some 500 voters, for a mission of six to seven hours in the Pacific over distances on the scale of the European continent.

It will make a first drop to Rapa, one of the most isolated islands of Polynesia at 1,200 km from Tahiti, two hours flight, before stopping at Mururoa to refuel.

The aircraft will then continue its mission to Tematangi (Tuamotu Islands), 1,000 km southeast of Tahiti, and Hereheretue, two atolls of about 50 inhabitants each, to distribute the valuable bulletins in time.

In the first round of the presidential election, it was able to make its dropping tour further upstream,on 14 April.

The Falcon 200 Gardian are specialized in maritime surveillance, fight against illegal trafficking and search and rescue.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2...esie-les-bulletins-vote-largues-par-avion.php

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## The SC

*A Guide to the Unpredictable French Presidential Election*






This weekend, French voters will start the process of electing their new president. Current Socialist President François Hollande’s track record is catastrophic and he is not running for a second term. Of the eleven present candidates, only three are considered as pro-European, while eight advocate various forms of Euroscepticism. The most recent opinion polls indicate that four candidates are competing to make it to the second round on 7 May: Marine Le Pen (Front National, polling at 23 per cent); Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!, 22.5 per cent); François Fillon (Les Républicains, 19 per cent); and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise, 19 per cent). Opinion polls have indicated a margin of error of 1.8 per cent. This means that all four candidates could all get around 21 per cent of the results. Who are they, and what do they want for the EU?

*Marine Le Pen*

Marine Le Pen took over the party leadership from her father, Jean-Marie, in 2011. She has tried to ‘de-demonize’ the Front National, and to transform it as the main French anti-establishment movement. Her stance on European integration is unsurprisingly critical, and she was among the first to welcome Brexit. However, unlike many international observers believe, the Front National does not explicitly campaign in favour of a ‘Frexit’. Instead, the party wants to leave the Economic and Monetary Union, and wants to transform the EU into a ‘Europe of sovereign nations’. Le Pen also pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership after renegotiating the terms of membership.

A high level of abstention could help Le Pen secure her place for the second round. However, it is virtually impossible for her to become the next French president, as it is highly expected that turnout will increase with many voters going to the polling stations to prevent her from getting elected. At best, she could get around 8 million votes in the first round. In the second round, she would need to find an additional 10 million voters, who will have mostly voted for moderate, ‘mainstream’ candidates.

*Emmanuel Macron*

Often considered as the ‘third way candidate’, Emmanuel Macron has never held any elected position. In 2014, he was appointed Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs, before resigning in 2016 in order to launch his bid for the presidential election. His centrist movement, En Marche!, is considered as a social liberal party. Macron’s programme is definitely the most pro-European: he pledged to strengthen the Common Security and Defence Policy, to campaign for a ‘Buy European Act’ and to create a Eurozone ministry and parliament.

Despite his lack of political experience, Macron quickly became popular and since the revelation of the so-called ‘Penelopegate’ scandal (more on this below), he emerged as the bookmakers’ favourite. His politics appeals to both centre-left and centre-right voters. His political opponents denounced his programme as being empty of any concrete proposals and have attacked Macron by framing him as Hollande’s ‘heir’, given his prominent role in the Socialist government between 2014 and 2016. His chances mostly depend on whether he can be successful in convincing potential Fillon voters to change their mind, but he can be considered as an ideal candidate for those who are looking for a fresh, moderate, social liberal vision of the presidency.

*François Fillon*

François Fillon is the only ‘traditional’ candidate, as he represents one of the two French mainstream parties. The candidate of right-wing party Les Républicains was Nicolas Sarkozy’s Prime Minister between 2007 and 2012. Fillon surprisingly won the party’s primary election in late 2016, easily beating his challengers thanks to strong support from conservative and Catholic voters. A convinced Europeanist, Fillon wants to strengthen the Common Security and Defence Policy, to reform Schengen and to create a government for the Eurozone. As such, his programme on European integration is fairly similar to the one advocated by Macron.

Many observers saw Fillon as the next French president. However, a series of revelations by French newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné put his candidacy at stake. This so-called ‘Penelopegate’ scandal led to speculations and pressure over Fillon to step down. Even though he stated that he will not give up and that he will be proven innocent, his popularity has dropped considerably. Still, he might be able to reach the second round (and possibly become the next French President) with the support of his core conservative voters. However, this can prove to be rather difficult for Fillon, given that Macron has been targeting right-wing voters over the past few weeks.

*Jean-Luc Mélenchon*

Much like Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can be considered as an anti-establishment candidate. Over the past couple of weeks, his popularity significantly increased. He took part in the 2012 presidential election, when he ended up fourth with 11% after having polled at more than 17% in the weeks before the vote. Mélenchon is known for his shock statements and his open-air meetings. He took advantage of the Socialist party’s poor track record to become the most popular left-wing candidate. His programme calls for a renegotiation of European treaties which, in his opinion, impose austerity measures and hinder public action. In Mélenchon’s words: ‘The EU, either we change it, or we leave it’.

Yet his experience in the 2012 presidential election might suggest that opinion polls overstate his popularity, despite the clear professionalization of his election campaign. The last few days of the campaign will be crucial in order to determine his chances to make it to the second round. Should he make it to the second round (and this would be a huge coup), his revolutionary, anti-establishment programme is unlikely to convince the majority of voters, much like Marine Le Pen, especially if he was to compete against a more mainstream candidate like Macron or Fillon.

*In sum*

This French presidential election is by far the most unpredictable of recent decades, with one third of voters still unsure of their decision. All candidates acknowledge that the EU is facing an unprecedented crisis post-Brexit. Accordingly, the EU has been a key issue addressed throughout this campaign. The apocalyptical (though unprobable) scenario for the EU would be a Le Pen-Mélenchon run-off, which could mean more problems for the EU on top of the on-going Brexit negotiations. Hollande’s track record and ‘Penelopegate’ offer a window of opportunity for outsiders. However, anti-establishment candidates Le Pen and Mélenchon stand very limited chances if they were to compete in the second round against Fillon or Macron.

But this year in France is not all about the presidential election. The newly elected president will also have to form a government based on the renewed French assembly. Should one of the three non-traditional candidates become the next president of France, s/he will probably have to work with other parties in order to gain enough support within the Assembly. One election after another, the new French political landscape is more fascinating than ever.

http://www.e-ir.info/2017/04/22/a-g...he+Unpredictable+French+Presidential+Election


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## LA se Karachi

*First-round candidate Dupont-Aignan backs Le Pen for French presidency*







Dupont-Aignan, who garnered 4.7 percent of votes in the first round, said he would vote for Le Pen in the second-round ballot on May 7 and would immediately join her campaign.

"I will vote Marine Le Pen and I will support her;" he said in a prime-time interview on French television, denying she was a far-right politician.

He said he had signed an agreement on the future government with Le Pen, who would incorporate some of his policy proposals into her election platform.

Earlier in the day, Le Pen’s National Front announced it was removing Jean-François Jalkh as interim party chief.

He allegedly made questionable remarks about Nazi gas chambers during World War Two. He has denied the allegations.

_(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)

http://www.france24.com/en/20170428...ction-candidate-dupont-aignan-endorses-le-pen_

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> *First-round candidate Dupont-Aignan backs Le Pen for French presidency*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dupont-Aignan, who garnered 4.7 percent of votes in the first round, said he would vote for Le Pen in the second-round ballot on May 7 and would immediately join her campaign.
> 
> "I will vote Marine Le Pen and I will support her;" he said in a prime-time interview on French television, denying she was a far-right politician.
> 
> He said he had signed an agreement on the future government with Le Pen, who would incorporate some of his policy proposals into her election platform.
> 
> Earlier in the day, Le Pen’s National Front announced it was removing Jean-François Jalkh as interim party chief.
> 
> He allegedly made questionable remarks about Nazi gas chambers during World War Two. He has denied the allegations.
> 
> _(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)
> 
> http://www.france24.com/en/20170428...ction-candidate-dupont-aignan-endorses-le-pen_




*Le Pen announces eurosceptic French PM pick, if she wins election*


https://www.thelocal.fr/20170430/le-pen-announces-eurosceptic-french-pm-pick-if-she-wins-election

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## LA se Karachi

_https://ig.ft.com/sites/france-election/polls/_

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## HannibalBarca

LA se Karachi said:


> View attachment 394202
> 
> 
> View attachment 394203
> 
> _https://ig.ft.com/sites/france-election/polls/_



North-East = de-industrialization= Highest unemployement lvl.
South coast= Wealthy region + little Unemployement, but mostly driven by Nationalist sentiment

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## Mage

Picking Dupont is a good move for Le Pen. An attempt to get right/republican votes. Might work well. Who is Macron gonna pick? Will he pick a socialist like Valls? I heard they get along well


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## HannibalBarca

Philia said:


> Picking Dupont is a good move for Le Pen. An attempt to get right/republican votes. Might work well. Who is Macron gonna pick? Will he pick a socialist like Valls? I heard they get along well



Never Macron gonna take Valls... not even in our darkest nightmares...
As for Dupont AIgnan...Well he had no choice... it's a copy (and even worse in some areas) of LePen. Lepen gave him an opportunity to jump on board with her FM post (and with money...to pay back his election investment too...since no refund from gov bc of being under 5%)

But if LePen lose this year... Dupont Aignan party is over.. he will have no legitimacy in next prez election. He will be eaten by LePen party.

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## Mage

I think Macron will pick someone socialist tho.

DuPont was never relevant to begin with.


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## Vergennes

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will both take part today in the traditional (and crucial ) second round TV debate (at 9pm French hour),four days before the run-off on sunday.

A decisive event that will see the two candidates facing each others to defend their radically different visions and projects for France.

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## Vergennes

*Le Pen, Macron face off in final French presidential debate*

http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/le-pen-macron-face-off-in-final-french-presidential-debate

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## Vergennes

*Could the live TV clash between Macron and Le Pen change the race?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170503/fr...-presidential-debate-actually-change-anything


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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi @Philia

According to an opinionway poll for Les Echos for the legislative elections of june,realized in the constituencies,En Marche! would be the first political force in the _Assemblée Nationale_.

290 seats needed for the majority.

En Marche! would win 249 to 286 seats.
The right and the center (Republicans and the UDI) would win 200 to 210 seats.
The Socialist Party would win 28 to 43 seats.
The National Front would win 15 to 25 seats.
The Left Front would win 6 to 8 seats.
-
In case Marine wins and doesn't get a majority,she plans to dissolve the _Assemblée Nationale_,according to _Le Canard Enchaîné_. No President did since 1997.

"If the new Assembly is hostile to us, we will change the electoral law by a referendum organized next summer and then the President will dissolve the Assembly," says Gilles Lebreton,National Front elected official and member of the strategic board of Marine le Pen.

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## Vergennes

Nearly 20 minutes since the debate begun and the only thing Marine Le Pen has been doing is attacking Macron,not showcasing and explaining her policies. When you ask her a question,she does everything than answering to the exact question.
I am a fool,of course because it's on economic policies. Let's wait for identity,immigration,islam etc.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Nearly 20 minutes since the debate begun and the only thing Marine Le Pen has been doing is attacking Macron,not showcasing and explaining her policies. When you ask her a question,she does everything than answering to the exact question.
> I am a fool,of course because it's on economic policies. Let's wait for identity,immigration,islam etc.



Je souris... LePen rame...
Teacher-Student relationship...

lol... l'echange pendant avec l'age de la retraite...

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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> Je souris... LePen rame...
> Teacher-Student relationship...
> 
> lol... l'echange pendant avec l'age de la retraite...



Ayééé..... ça parle de terrorisme.  Allez Marine.


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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Ayééé..... ça parle de terrorisme.  Allez Marine.



Elle rame aussi...la pauvre... 
Même dans son domaine de prédilection...elle chavire...

Avant le Debat... on disait que ce debat n'a pas d'incidence sur les resultats du vote final... si ca continue sur cette longueur... le mythe tombe à l'eau... 



HannibalBarca said:


> Elle rame aussi...la pauvre...
> Même dans son domaine de prédilection...elle chavire...
> 
> Avant le Debat... on disait que ce debat n'a pas d'incidence sur les resultats du vote final... si ca continue sur cette longueur... le mythe tombe à l'eau...



Présentateurs...invisible...

Maintenant on sait pourquoi Pujadas/Boulleau absent... LePen n'a pas voulu...
Macron a vendu la Mèche...












HannibalBarca said:


> Elle rame aussi...la pauvre...
> Même dans son domaine de prédilection...elle chavire...
> 
> Avant le Debat... on disait que ce debat n'a pas d'incidence sur les resultats du vote final... si ca continue sur cette longueur... le mythe tombe à l'eau...
> 
> 
> 
> Présentateurs...invisible...
> 
> Maintenant on sait pourquoi Pujadas/Boulleau absent... LePen n'a pas voulu...
> Macron a vendu la Mèche...




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/859852997442097152

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## HannibalBarca

HannibalBarca said:


> Elle rame aussi...la pauvre...
> Même dans son domaine de prédilection...elle chavire...
> 
> Avant le Debat... on disait que ce debat n'a pas d'incidence sur les resultats du vote final... si ca continue sur cette longueur... le mythe tombe à l'eau...
> 
> 
> 
> Présentateurs...invisible...
> 
> Maintenant on sait pourquoi Pujadas/Boulleau absent... LePen n'a pas voulu...
> Macron a vendu la Mèche...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/859852997442097152



Bon...LePen en PLS...
J'ai même été mal à l'aise pour Lepen... petite humiliation de passage...


----------



## Vergennes

*Belligerent Marine Le Pen fails to convince in 'undignified' live debate*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170504/aggressive-marine-le-pen-loses-her-nerve-in-home-straight

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## Vergennes

*What happens now: French presidential election enters crunch time*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170504/what-happens-now-the-french-election-home-stretch


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## StraightShooter

Steve781 said:


> View attachment 394699
> 
> What is it with Macron and women past menopause?



Is the picture real? What exactly is the context?


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## Mage

StraightShooter said:


> Is the picture real? What exactly is the context?


Afaik Macron is very fond of Merkel and older women.

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## Vergennes

StraightShooter said:


> Is the picture real? What exactly is the context?





Philia said:


> Afaik Macron is very fond of Merkel and older women.



What was the picture ? @Steve781 Why did you delete your post ?


----------



## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Nearly 20 minutes since the debate begun and the only thing Marine Le Pen has been doing is attacking Macron,not showcasing and explaining her policies. When you ask her a question,she does everything than answering to the exact question.
> I am a fool,of course because it's on economic policies. Let's wait for identity,immigration,islam etc.




Lol. She definitely did not perform well in the debate. This was her first chance to show that she was not who the media perceived her to be, and that she had the temperament to be President. Instead, she merely reinforced the negative things people think about her. 



Vergennes said:


> *Belligerent Marine Le Pen fails to convince in 'undignified' live debate*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170504/aggressive-marine-le-pen-loses-her-nerve-in-home-straight




Viewers seem to agree:
_
"TV viewers were less than convinced by Le Pen’s performance with a poll carried out by Elabe and published by BFMTV showing that 63 percent found Macron the most convincing candidate in the debate and 64 percent of viewers found his programme the most suitable for France."_



Vergennes said:


> @LA se Karachi @Philia
> 
> 
> According to an opinionway poll for Les Echos for the legislative elections of june,realized in the constituencies,En Marche! would be the first political force in the _Assemblée Nationale_.




Thanks for the tag. I've been waiting to see a poll for the Assemblée Nationale_. 
_


Vergennes said:


> En Marche! would win 249 to 286 seats.
> The right and the center (Republicans and the UDI) would win 200 to 210 seats.
> The Socialist Party would win 28 to 43 seats.
> The National Front would win 15 to 25 seats.
> The Left Front would win 6 to 8 seats.




My earlier comment seems to be validated by these poll results.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/fren...s-and-discussions.460535/page-31#post-9421733

It shows _En Marche ! _falling a bit short of an outright majority, the Republicans finishing a distant second, the National Front making major gains, and the Socialist Party winning just a fraction of the seats they have now---but probably winning enough to give Macron a governing coalition should he seek one.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Lol. She definitely did not perform well in the debate. This was her first chance to show that she was not who the media perceived her to be, and that she had the temperament to be President. Instead, she merely reinforced the negative things people think about her.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Viewers seem to agree:
> _
> "TV viewers were less than convinced by Le Pen’s performance with a poll carried out by Elabe and published by BFMTV showing that 63 percent found Macron the most convincing candidate in the debate and 64 percent of viewers found his programme the most suitable for France."_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for the tag. I've been waiting to see a poll for the Assemblée Nationale_.
> _
> 
> 
> 
> My earlier comment seems to be validated by these poll results.
> 
> https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/fren...s-and-discussions.460535/page-31#post-9421733
> 
> It shows _En Marche ! _falling a bit short of an outright majority, the Republicans finishing a distant second, the National Front making major gains, and the Socialist Party winning just a fraction of the seats they have now---but probably winning enough to give Macron a governing coalition should he seek one.



Sorry,I didn't figure out that the poll was realized in 535 constituencies out of 577. The constituencies of overseas territories and the French established abroad could well give a majority for En Marche!.

//
According to the study, which concerns 535 metropolitan constituencies out of the 577 on 11 and 18 June, En Marche! Could obtain between 249 to 286 seats in the National Assembly. With the overseas and and the constituencies for the French established abroad, the young movement of Emmanuel Macron - which by then would have to change its name and become a traditional party - could reach the 290-seat mark, a synonym Of absolute majority.

According to this projection, the right, without access to its dream of cohabitation, would largely limit the damage after the defeat of its candidate in the presidential election, winning between 200 and 210 seats (LR and UDI combined).
The National Front would still be confronted with the glass ceiling of the second round, but will be able to form a parliamentary group at the _Palais Bourbon_ with 15 to 25 seats.
Finally, the left wing would be the biggest loser of this election : the Socialist Party could record the worst result of its history (from 28 to 42 seats, worse than the catastrophic score of 1993).
The radical left, despite the score of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round, could win only 6 to 8 seats.

How the Assemblée Nationale is estimated to look like. (Based on 535 seats out of 577)






Of course let's wait and see.

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## Steve781

Vergennes said:


> What was the picture ? @Steve781 Why did you delete your post ?


I didn't. The mods must have for some reason.


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## Vergennes

*Macron stretches poll lead over Le Pen on final day of bruising campaign*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170505/macron-stretches-poll-lead-over-le-pen-on-final-day-of-campaign

*French election: Nervous Brussels 'crosses fingers' for Macron*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170505/french-election-brussels-crosses-fingers-for-macron

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## StraightShooter

Vergennes said:


> What was the picture ? @Steve781 Why did you delete your post ?



The setting was this but Macron was sitting on the floor near Merkel's feet. Very weird picture if true.


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## Vergennes

StraightShooter said:


> The setting was this but Macron was sitting on the floor near Merkel's feet. Very weird picture if true.
> 
> View attachment 394794



You mean this one ? 






Of course this is a photoshop spread by foreign and our local Lepenists.

Here's the real picture of the meeting between Macron and Merkel.

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## StraightShooter

Vergennes said:


> You mean this one ?
> 
> View attachment 394808
> 
> 
> Of course this is a photoshop spread by foreign and our local Lepenists.
> 
> Here's the real picture of the meeting between Macron and Merkel.
> 
> View attachment 394809



Yes the first one. Actually that is a very common setting in the family but it was weird when you are talking about heads or state(or would be heads of state)

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## Vergennes

As the first round,this secound round will be under heavy security surveillance. 
More than 50K Police officers and Gendarmes will be deployed to secure the polling stations and to ensure the well doing of this election. Then to secure the various rallies before and after the results are announced. They will be supported by the 7K soldiers of the Sentinelle operation and the Municipal Police forces.


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## Vergennes

The second round campaign has now officialy ended. 

What does it mean ? A reminder ;



> Under a decree from March 2001, the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign imposes on the candidates to cease any campaign action and any act of propaganda to Electoral purpose ... everywhere on the territory of the Republic.
> They are not allowed to hold any public meetings anymore,nore distribute leaflets or send electoral emails,anything that has character of electoral propaganda. It also calls on them to freeze the content of their websites and no longer make any updates of them til the closing of the last polling stations.
> 
> The National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign for the Presidential Election reminds the media that it is no longer possible to broadcast interviews of candidates or their supporters in the print or audiovisual press on saturday the 6th and sunday the 7th of may,2017.
> No polling, no partial results, no estimate of the results can be published before the 7th of may at 8 pm.
> 
> The law also forbids from now til sunday at 8pm for any polls to be conducted,published or commented. Exit polls are also forbidden.



The lastest polls ;

Ipsos : Macron 61,5% - 38,5% Le Pen
Elabe : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen 
OpinionWay : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen 
Odoxa : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen 
Ifop : Macron 63% - 37% Le Pen

Today,the French established abroad and the voters in the overseas territories of Guadeloupe, French Guyana, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre et Miquelon and the French Polynesia will go to the polls first on this saturday. The rest of the overseas territories will vote on sunday like the metropolitan France.

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## Śakra

2014 marked India's independence year

2016 marked America and Britain's independence year

Here's to 2017 bringing independence to France from the globalists


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## Mugwop

*Emmanuel macron *
*Jean luc Melenchon
Marine Lepen
francois fillion*


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## Vergennes

It seems like foяeign tяolls and hackeяs have a haяd time tяying to destabilize and яuin Macяon's campaign,spяead the doubts among his voteяs,even houяs befoяe the vote. ;-) @LA se Karachi @Philia @A.P. Richelieu 

*En Marche! movement says posting of massive email leak online ‘clearly amounts to democratic destabilisation as was seen in the US’*





French presidential election posters in Saint-Josse. Photograph: Benoit Tessier/Reuters 

The campaign of the French presidential frontrunner, Emmanuel Macron, has said it has been the target of a “massive and coordinated” hacking attack after tens of thousands of internal emails and other documents were released online.

Less than 48 hours before polling day, around nine gigabytes of data was posted by a user called EMLEAKS to the document-sharing site Pastebin that allows anonymous posting. It was not immediately clear who was responsible.

Macron’s political movement, En Marche!, confirmed the hack, saying it had been the “victim of a massive and coordinated hack this evening which has given rise to the diffusion on social media of various internal information”.

The statement added that the data consisted of “diverse documents such as emails, accounting documents and contracts” hacked several weeks ago from the personal and professional accounts of some of the movement’s staffers.

“Coming in the final hours of the campaign, this operation clearly amounts to democratic destabilisation as was seen in the United States,” it said, adding that En Marche! had “consistently been targeted by such initiatives” through the campaign.

It said “many false documents” had been added to genuine stolen documents on social media “in order to sow doubt and disinformation” as part of an operation “clearly intended to harm the movement”.

The authentic documents were all lawful, however, and “reflected the normal functioning of an election campaign”, the statement said. Their publication “does not alarm us as to the prospect of any questions being raised about their legality”.

The WikiLeaks website posted a Twitter link to the cache of documents, saying it “contains many tens of thousands (of) emails, photos, attachments up to April 24, 2017”. It indicated it was not responsible for the leak itself.

A French interior ministry official declined to comment, citing French rules barring any remarks liable to influence an election. The rules took effect at midnight local time on Friday (2300 GMT) and will remain in place until all polling stations have closed at 8pm on Sunday.

Five new opinion polls published on Friday forecast that Macron would win the election with a share of 62-63%, comfortably defeating his rival, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, in France’s most turbulent and potentially significant presidential race in decades.

A top official from Le Pen’s Front National, Florian Philippot, asked on Twitter whether the leaked documents “would reveal anything that investigative journalism had kept quiet”.

Macron’s team has previously blamed Russian interests for repeated attempts to hack its systems during the campaign, saying on 26 April it had been the target of unsuccessful attempts to steal email credentials since January. The Kremlin has denied any involvement.

During a visit by Le Pen to Moscow in March, Vladimir Putin said Russia had no intention of meddling in the French presidential elections, but analysts said the meeting implicitly signaled support for the Front National.

Trend Micro, a cybersecurity firm, said last month a hacking group, believed to be part of a Russian intelligence unit, was targeting Macron and his campaign team, adding that it appeared to be the same Fancy Bear group behind the hacking of Democratic campaign officials before last year’s US presidential election.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...targeted-by-hackers-on-eve-of-french-election

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Sorry,I didn't figure out that the poll was realized in 535 constituencies out of 577. The constituencies of overseas territories and the French established abroad could well give a majority for En Marche!.
> 
> According to the study, which concerns 535 metropolitan constituencies out of the 577 on 11 and 18 June, En Marche! Could obtain between 249 to 286 seats in the National Assembly. With the overseas and and the constituencies for the French established abroad, the young movement of Emmanuel Macron - which by then would have to change its name and become a traditional party - could reach the 290-seat mark, a synonym Of absolute majority.




Ah, well that's a very good point indeed. If _En Marche !_ performs well outside of Metropolitan France, it seems that they could indeed win a majority on their own. 



Vergennes said:


> According to this projection, the right, without access to its dream of cohabitation, would largely limit the damage after the defeat of its candidate in the presidential election, winning between 200 and 210 seats (LR and UDI combined).




It's good to know that The Republicans will retain the vast majority of their seats, and that the National Front will win only a fraction of their total. 



Vergennes said:


> Finally, the left wing would be the biggest loser of this election : the Socialist Party could record the worst result of its history (from 28 to 42 seats, worse than the catastrophic score of 1993).




Well personally, I consider _En Marche !_ and Macron to be Center-Left. Perhaps they are more centrist than truly left, but still somewhat left of center. 

If _En Marche! _fails to win a majority on its own, I see the Socialist Party as its most likely coalition partner. 



Vergennes said:


> The National Front would still be confronted with the glass ceiling of the second round, but will be able to form a parliamentary group at the _Palais Bourbon_ with 15 to 25 seats.





Vergennes said:


> The radical left, despite the score of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round, could win only 6 to 8 seats.




I'm very glad to hear that both the far left and the far right will win very few seats in the Assemblée Nationale. 



Vergennes said:


> The lastest polls ;
> 
> Ipsos : Macron 61,5% - 38,5% Le Pen
> Elabe : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen
> OpinionWay : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen
> Odoxa : Macron 62 - 38% Le Pen
> Ifop : Macron 63% - 37% Le Pen





Vergennes said:


> *Macron stretches poll lead over Le Pen on final day of bruising campaign*
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170505/macron-stretches-poll-lead-over-le-pen-on-final-day-of-campaign




Yes, Macron has expanded his lead over Le Pen. The debate seems to have taken a toll on her poll numbers.

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## Jacob Martin

Russia....


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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> It seems like foяeign tяolls and hackeяs have a haяd time tяying to destabilize and яuin Macяon's campaign,spяead the doubts among his voteяs,even houяs befoяe the vote. ;-) @LA se Karachi @Philia @A.P. Richelieu




Lol. 



Vergennes said:


> Macron’s team has previously blamed Russian interests for repeated attempts to hack its systems during the campaign, saying on 26 April it had been the target of unsuccessful attempts to steal email credentials since January. The Kremlin has denied any involvement.
> 
> During a visit by Le Pen to Moscow in March, Vladimir Putin said Russia had no intention of meddling in the French presidential elections, but analysts said the meeting implicitly signaled support for the Front National.
> 
> *Trend Micro, a cybersecurity firm, said last month a hacking group, believed to be part of a Russian intelligence unit, was targeting Macron and his campaign team, adding that it appeared to be the same Fancy Bear group behind the hacking of Democratic campaign officials before last year’s US presidential election.*




You don't say? 

Remember this post of mine? 

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trum...ipulate-frances-election.475493/#post-9162034

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Ah, well that's a very good point indeed. If _En Marche !_ performs well outside of Metropolitan France, it seems that they could indeed win a majority on their own.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's good to know that The Republicans will retain the vast majority of their seats, and that the National Front will win only a fraction of their total.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well personally, I consider _En Marche !_ and Macron to be Center-Left. Perhaps they are more centrist than truly left, but still somewhat left of center.
> 
> If _En Marche! _fails to win a majority on its own, I see the Socialist Party as its most likely coalition partner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm very glad to hear that both the far left and the far right will win very few seats in the Assemblée Nationale.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, Macron has expanded his lead over Le Pen. The debate seems to have taken a toll on her poll numbers.
> 
> View attachment 395008



En Marche! (which would have to change its name by then,confirmed by Macron) yesterday made an agreement with François Bayrou's MoDem centrist party for the legislative election. An agreement was made for 90 constituencies,including 50 believed 'winneable'. Macron added that Bayrou would have "an important role" in his government. 
If his party fails to get a majority,I bet on a En Marche !* + MoDem + UDI coalition. I could be wrong. Let's wait and see.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> En Marche! (which would have to change its name by then,confirmed by Macron) yesterday made an agreement with François Bayrou's MoDem centrist party for the legislative election. An agreement was made for 90 constituencies,including 50 believed 'winneable'. Macron added that Bayrou would have "an important role" in his government.




Interesting. It looks like Macron may have chosen his Prime Minister. A good choice, in my opinion, if that's the case.



Vergennes said:


> If his party fails to get a majority,I bet on a En Marche !* + MoDem + UDI coalition. I could be wrong. Let's wait and see.




I still see the Socialist Party as a more likely coalition partner than the UDI. Macron could bend the decimated party to his will and moderate them. He was a part of it until recently as well, and knows its voters and leadership quite well. They would have little choice but to join him.

Whereas as the UDI may be a less stable partner, given they could threaten to leave the coalition at any time and join the Republicans (as they are doing now). The Socialist Party won't have that kind of leverage. _En Marche !_ would have all the leverage in a coalition with the Socialist Party---they would have nowhere else to go.

But I'm not ruling anything out, you may wind up being correct. This election is anything but ordinary, so who knows?

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Lol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You don't say?
> 
> Remember this post of mine?
> 
> https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trum...ipulate-frances-election.475493/#post-9162034



They showed on TV news yesterday that nearly 68% of the anti Macron tweets came from.... North America. Every days on twitter I see lot of foreigners campaigning for Le Pen (even more than the locals).
The best are those creating accounts pretending to be locals Le Pen supporters,but are quickly debunked with their suspicious and bogus French language skills...

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> They showed on TV news yesterday that nearly 68% of the anti Macron tweets came from.... North America. Every days on twitter I see lot of foreigners campaigning for Le Pen (even more than the locals).




Lol. Like I said, Trump supporters have nothing better to do these days... 



Vergennes said:


> The best are those creating accounts pretending to be locals Le Pen supporters,but are quickly debunked with their suspicious and bogus French language skills...




 

_Vive la France!_

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## vostok

Very convenient! Those evil Trump suppoters and Russians help Macron to win, making him a victim of dark machinations in the eyes of voters! Of course, the Macron followers themselves would not have done this!


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## Vergennes

Vergennes said:


> Quit interesting.
> 
> *Polynesia : The ballots air dropped by plane*
> 
> *The ballots of the second round of the presidential election will be dropped by plane on May 4 on three islands of Polynesia, too isolated to be served in time by the sea, said today the Ministry of Defense.*
> 
> The three islands - Rapa to the south of the Australes archipelago, Tematangi and Hereheretue - "do not have an airport and the shipping links are too rare to ensure a timely delivery of electoral material", said Commander Lionel Delort at the weekly Defense press briefing.
> 
> On May 4th, a Falcon 200 Gardian from the French Navy will take off from Tahiti, charged with ballots for some 500 voters, for a mission of six to seven hours in the Pacific over distances on the scale of the European continent.
> 
> It will make a first drop to Rapa, one of the most isolated islands of Polynesia at 1,200 km from Tahiti, two hours flight, before stopping at Mururoa to refuel.
> 
> The aircraft will then continue its mission to Tematangi (Tuamotu Islands), 1,000 km southeast of Tahiti, and Hereheretue, two atolls of about 50 inhabitants each, to distribute the valuable bulletins in time.
> 
> In the first round of the presidential election, it was able to make its dropping tour further upstream,on 14 April.
> 
> The Falcon 200 Gardian are specialized in maritime surveillance, fight against illegal trafficking and search and rescue.
> 
> http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2...esie-les-bulletins-vote-largues-par-avion.php

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## Vergennes

*French election reporting restricted as voting starts overseas*

http://en.rfi.fr/france/20170506-french-election-reporting-restricted-voting-starts-overseas

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## Mage

Vergennes said:


> They showed on TV news yesterday that nearly 68% of the anti Macron tweets came from.... North America. Every days on twitter I see lot of foreigners campaigning for Le Pen (even more than the locals).
> The best are those creating accounts pretending to be locals Le Pen supporters,but are quickly debunked with their suspicious and bogus French language skills...


I like it when elections become meme fest

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> En Marche! (which would have to change its name by then,confirmed by Macron) yesterday made an agreement with François Bayrou's MoDem centrist party for the legislative election. An agreement was made for 90 constituencies,including 50 believed 'winneable'. Macron added that Bayrou would have "an important role" in his government.
> If his party fails to get a majority,I bet on a En Marche !* + MoDem + UDI coalition. I could be wrong. Let's wait and see.



You do realize that virtually all media say that Macron may only delay the ineviteable future? If the polls are right, you have 40% population you cant reach anymore and who have zero trust in your system. 

It is clear that Macron cant achieve anything. He is a radical neoliberal. So it will only make things worse. 

So whats your longtherm plan? Even the media in Germany say you either get lePen now or in 5 years if things dont change dramatic in entire europe. And its even worse in Italy. In Austria the far right is virtually at 50%. And i dont see the Elites to be able for that change.


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## Mage

ValerioAurelius said:


> You do realize that virtually all media say that Macron may only delay the ineviteable future? If the polls are right, you have 40% population you cant reach anymore and who have zero trust in your system.
> 
> It is clear that Macron cant achieve anything. He is a radical neoliberal. So it will only make things worse.
> 
> So whats your longtherm plan? Even the media in Germany say you either get lePen now or in 5 years if things dont change dramatic in entire europe. And its even worse in Italy. In Austria the far right is virtually at 50%. And i dont see the Elites to be able for that change.


If you say Le Pen voters are the ones with zero trust is the system then you have like 21% French population. The ones voted for her in round one. Or you are gonna count Fillon and Melenchon voters in that too? But then there is bad news as Macron is expected to gain more votes from them thank Le Pen. Its just that around 40% people would prefer Le Pen over Macron but doesn't mean all of them has zero trust in the system. 

Also those 5 years long term projections don't usually work. People were promised with Geert Wilders win and Nexit. Didn't quite work out. In Austria too, that far right guy was supposed to win but ended up losing.

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## ValerioAurelius

Philia said:


> If you say Le Pen voters are the ones with zero trust is the system then you have like 21% French population. The ones voted for her in round one. Or you are gonna count Fillon and Melenchon voters in that too? But then there is bad news as Macron is expected to gain more votes from them thank Le Pen. Its just that around 40% people would prefer Le Pen over Macron but doesn't mean all of them has zero trust in the system.
> 
> Also those 5 years long term projections don't usually work. People were promised with Geert Wilders win and Nexit. Didn't quite work out. In Austria too, that far right guy was supposed to win but ended up losing.



So evrything is fine yes? Mass unemployment of young people. Democracy deficit. Politics only for elites. More and more people losing trust in the system. 

Dont you see where the train is going? In Italy we have a M5S party that does nothing and is far right, far left and led by a clown and gets up to 40% votes.

Macron is bankster. He wants put even more neo liberal politics into place and exploit the small people. According to polls in my country over 67% of young people would support a coup. n France its 60%. 

If you seriously believe this system we have here now is stable and will hold any longer you are mistaken.


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## KediKesenFare3

Please, God, make Le Pen win this election!


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## Mage

ValerioAurelius said:


> So evrything is fine yes? Mass unemployment of young people. Democracy deficit. Politics only for elites. More and more people losing trust in the system.
> 
> Dont you see where the train is going? In Italy we have a M5S party that does nothing and is far right, far left and led by a clown and gets up to 40% votes.
> 
> Macron is bankster. He wants put even more neo liberal politics into place and exploit the small people. According to polls in my country over 67% of young people would support a coup. n France its 60%.
> 
> If you seriously believe this system we have here now is stable and will hold any longer you are mistaken.


Everything was never fine and everything will never be fine. You tell me how everything will be fine if Le Pen gets elected? Wouldn't the people voted against her would lose trust in the system? Le Pen loses and 40% loses trust in the system. She narrowly wins and 49% loses trust in the system. Even going by your retarded logic, you tell me which one is less worse? 

Nothing is wrong being a bankster. What's your problem here? Don't bring Italy into every discussion. Your political news doesn't get much coverage outside your country. So many people are not aware of what's going on and would believe your posts at face value. 

If you are hoping that the likes of Le Pen, Italian Pedo, Trump, Frauke Petry, Wilders and Farage will bring a revolution then you are mistaken.

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## ValerioAurelius

Philia said:


> Everything was never fine and everything will never be fine. You tell me how everything will be fine if Le Pen gets elected? Wouldn't the people voted against her would lose trust in the system? Le Pen loses and 40% loses trust in the system. She narrowly wins and 49% loses trust in the system. Even going by your retarded logic, you tell me which one is less worse?
> 
> Nothing is wrong being a bankster. What's your problem here? Don't bring Italy into every discussion. Your political news doesn't get much coverage outside your country. So many people are not aware of what's going on and would believe your posts at face value.
> 
> If you are hoping that the likes of Le Pen, Italian Pedo, Trump, Frauke Petry, Wilders and Farage will bring a revolution then you are mistaken.



lePen is a symptom. She is not the problem. If you dont see this, then i dont know. 

I believe if there is no drastical change in all of Europe we will have a change that will sweep away the system.


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## Vergennes

@ValerioAurelius I am a former National Front voter. Always voted for them and their candidates. Until I realized how much this party was entire BS full of crooks. I don't have a very positive opinion of other parties,but this one is the worse by far.

The only 'revolution' the FN did was to cut the free canteen for the poor families in the cities they hold. It has nothing social,it has nothing Republican. It has no real visions,no real project. It only plays with people's fears,despair and anger. Nothing else.

For tomorrow,my choice is done. and nothing will ever make me cast a ballot for Le Pen or her 'party...'
I hope my fellow citizens are intelligent enough not to make Le Pen win.








KediKesenFare said:


> Please, God, make Le Pen win this election!



Keep praying then.

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## Mage

ValerioAurelius said:


> lePen is a symptom. She is not the problem. If you dont see this, then i dont know.
> 
> I believe if there is no drastical change in all of Europe we will have a change that will sweep away the system.


What I know is Le Pen's party were there even before the refugee issues arose. Yeah Le Pen sr also made it to the final round once to lose it against Chirac. 

So what kind of change you are expecting? A coup, like Yahya Jammeh did in Gambia? Good luck.

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## ValerioAurelius

Philia said:


> What I know is Le Pen's party were there even before the refugee issues arose. Yeah Le Pen sr also made it to the final round once to lose it against Chirac.
> 
> So what kind of change you are expecting? A coup, like Yahya Jammeh did in Gambia? Good luck.



You dont understand whats going on amigo. Gargantuan youth unemployment. Lack of perspective and a blown up EU elite that sing all the neoliberal song. FN and other far right were 2-5% parties in the past. People vote now anything to crash the system. Trump, BREXIT, AfD, M5S, FN. 

Macron is part of the same elites that caused the problems we have today. Look at Greece. Whats going on there. Money taken from small people to save banks. Mass unemployment and downfall off social order. 

Thats what you stand for. Politics for Billionaires and corporations. This is not about refugees. This is much deeper. 

Thats also the reason why i disagree with @Vergennes . Macron is part of the system. He stands for the corrupted past. 

The system is boiling and things can take a sudden ugly turn. 

Democracy isnt destroyed by individual politicians. Its constant misbehavior that leads to erosion of what we stand for.

I dont know if things will be better when we have a drastic change. But we need a change so things can get better. 

Its already sure that Macron will fail. So we all know the situation will get even worse. What then?


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## Vergennes

Today is the decisive day of the election !
In some hours the French will head to the polls to choose between two different candidates with radically different visions for our country for the coming five years.
At 8PM (local hour) the face of the new President of the French Republic will be revealed.

So,who will occupy the Élysée palace during the coming five years ?!

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## T-72M1

She's massively down in the polls, 20 odd points ? Almost a foregone conclusion at this stage, if they're not rigging the polls.

interesting analysis here:






^ pretty good channel for European politics in general.


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## LA se Karachi

A couple of interesting maps that help explain the results of the first round:











_https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/ _

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## Vergennes

Went to vote this morning. Casted my vote for Macron. Now waiting for the results at 8pm.

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## SOHEIL

Vergennes said:


> Went to vote this morning. Casted my vote for Macron. Now waiting for the results at 8pm.



You want to stay in EU ?


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## Vergennes

SOHEIL said:


> You want to stay in EU ?



Not so long ago I had a bad opinion about the EU. But I believe now that it's a chance. Of course the actual EU is not sustainable anymore and I hope that Macron (if elected) can propose new alternatives and initiatives with our partners (Germany mostly) to rebuild completly the EU taking into account the people's opinions. He said it would be betrayal to let the EU function as it is currently. 

I also don't believe we will be stronger alone instead of together. Especially in a world with rising giants.

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## Vergennes

Seems like the results from the overseas territories that voted yesterday were revealed. @Philia @LA se Karachi @ValerioAurelius
(to be taken with a pinch of salt of course for now)

Guadeloupe : *Emmanuel Macron 75,1%* - *24,9% Marine Le Pen *
French Guyana : *Emmanuel Macron 65%* - *35% Marine Le Pen *
Martinique : *Emmanuel Macron 77,5%* - *22,5% Marine Le Pen*
Saint-Barthélemy : *Emmanuel Macron 58,4%* - *41,6% Marine Le Pen *
Saint-Martin : *Emmanuel Macron 67,6%* - *32,4% Marine Le Pen*
Saint-Pierre et Miquelon : *Emmanuel Macron 63,3%* - *36,7% Marine Le Pen*
-
The turnout rate at 12PM for this second round was *28,23%*. (stable with the turnout rate of the first round at the same hour.)
In 2012 at the same hour it was at *30,66%*. In 2007 it was at *34,11%*.

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> Seems like the results from the overseas territories that voted yesterday were revealed. @Philia @LA se Karachi @ValerioAurelius
> (to be taken with a pinch of salt of course for now)
> 
> Guadeloupe : *Emmanuel Macron 75,1%* - *24,9% Marine Le Pen *
> French Guyana : *Emmanuel Macron 65%* - *35% Marine Le Pen *
> Martinique : *Emmanuel Macron 77,5%* - *22,5% Marine Le Pen*
> Saint-Barthélemy : *Emmanuel Macron 58,4%* - *41,6% Marine Le Pen *
> Saint-Martin : *Emmanuel Macron 67,6%* - *32,4% Marine Le Pen*
> Saint-Pierre et Miquelon : *Emmanuel Macron 63,3%* - *36,7% Marine Le Pen*
> -
> The turnout rate at 12PM for this second round was *28,23%*. (stable with the turnout rate of the first round at the same hour.)
> In 2012 at the same hour it was at *30,66%*. In 2007 it was at *34,11%*.
> 
> View attachment 395207



I did not expect le pen so powerful there. Isnt your colonies extremly left? I expected le pen there with 8%. Btw why no New Caledonia? Ill bei there next year.


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## Louiq XIV

I'm done with the vote let's see the results now

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> Not so long ago I had a bad opinion about the EU. But I believe now that it's a chance. Of course the actual EU is not sustainable anymore and I hope that Macron (if elected) can propose new alternatives and initiatives with our partners (Germany mostly) to rebuild completly the EU taking into account the people's opinions. He said it would be betrayal to let the EU function as it is currently.
> 
> I also don't believe we will be stronger alone instead of together. Especially in a world with rising giants.



Thats the Problem Amigo. Macron = Germany. And spain, italy ect want real Change. You cant reform something when one group has no voice.


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## HannibalBarca

Voted... And I'm tired...
BUt for those I saw voting it's was Full Macron...
1 was voting LePen... then you get few guys asking her why she does so... The answer is... Bc I want " Vous faire chier..." 
Ah sometimes ppl...

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## A.P. Richelieu

HannibalBarca said:


> Voted... And I'm tired...
> BUt for those I saw voting it's was Full Macron...
> 1 was voting LePen... then you get few guys asking her why she does so... The answer is... Bc I want " Vous faire chier..."
> Ah sometimes ppl...


When I voted the last time in Sweden, two thirds of the voters I noticed were voting for the feminist party, but they did not even make the 4% cut.
Making predictions from just three people is bound to fail, lol...


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## HannibalBarca

A.P. Richelieu said:


> When I voted the last time in Sweden, two thirds of the voters I noticed were voting for the feminist party, but they did not even make the 4% cut.
> Making predictions from just three people is bound to fail, lol...


This was no prediction...just an observation...


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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> This was no prediction...just an observation...



Yeah you voted. The tunisian, french, italian, inuit, martian, atacameno, papua newguinean aboriginal. 

For all who didnt know yet. Our good Hanni is evrything. Once a Tunisian national he later on turned french as he said he voted there and then later on was also italian and voted here in Italy as well. He claims to be evryone...when reality he is nothing at all? :/

P.s.: I have a friend from Nice and he voted lePen and says all his family did so. But southern france always was the more realistic french.


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## HannibalBarca

Seems someone is butthurt... But as for Italian vote... I can do so...but I don't really care of their outcome...no ties with such country... but since _jus sanguinis_ is involved I can't do otherwise 

And yes... mutiple nationalities do exist...


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## HannibalBarca

ValerioAurelius said:


> Any plans yet how you will elect in the next election in Papua Newguinea? You support Mekere Morauta?


Mostly their Macron version... 

ps: no need to answer... I will not at least not to you before 20h...


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## Mage

ValerioAurelius said:


> Any plans yet how you will elect in the next election in Papua Newguinea? You support Mekere Morauta?


You guys should elect the pedofile in Italy. Him and Trump would be best buds.


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## ValerioAurelius

HannibalBarca said:


> Mostly their Macron version...
> 
> ps: no need to answer... I will not at least not to you before 20h...




No need to be butthurt. Im sure Macron wins. I have no problem with that. The result is important. He is a weak cuck and the candidate of the bank elites. The result is quite clear. The current system is the reason why lePen and her likes gained more and more support. Macron being part of that system will make things worse. Being Merkels canditate makes sure that France gets Hollande 2.0. I have no doubt that France is strong enough to survive that and then change for real. It has to become worse to get better.


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## Mage

ValerioAurelius said:


> Sorry pal. Ayatollah Chamenei doesnt stand for election in italy.


Ayatollah Berlusconi does. I actually like him. Always had a soft spot for AC Milan


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## Vergennes

The turnout rate at 5PM was 65,30%. The polling stations will begin to close at 7PM,but will remain open til 8PM in big cities.

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## Vergennes

The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.

The next President of the Republic will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)

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## SouI

Vergennes said:


> The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
> Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.
> 
> The next President of the Republic will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)


Thanks for letting us know!

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## Armstrong

Vergennes said:


> The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
> Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.
> 
> The next President of the Republic will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)



So who did you vote for?

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> The voting is now over and polls are closing around France.
> Polls are still open in big cities where people are still able to vote til 8pm.
> 
> The next President of the Republic will be known in less than 1 hour. (8pm French hour)




Good. I just woke up, it's 10 am here. I was afraid I might miss out on the action.

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## Vergennes

Armstrong said:


> So who did you vote for?



A vote is supposed to be secret ! 



Spoiler






Vergennes said:


> View attachment 395082








LA se Karachi said:


> Good. I just woke up, it's 10 am here. I was afraid I might miss out on the action.



Seems like Macron is leading with more than 90% in Canada and the US. lol!

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Seems like Macron is leading with more than 90% in Canada and the US. lol!



Nice!

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## SouI

Vergennes said:


> The turnout rate at 5PM was 65,30%. The polling stations will begin to close at 7PM,but will remain open til 8PM in big cities.
> 
> View attachment 395257


That is a huge drop!


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## Armstrong

Vergennes said:


> A vote is supposed to be secret !
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Seems like Macron is leading with more than 90% in Canada and the US. lol!



I dunno why but whenever I read his name I'm reminded of these even though there is an extra 'a' in there.

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## Mage

I think Emmanuel got this.

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## bananarepublic

the right is defiantly gonna win


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## LA se Karachi

Live newscast in English:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170507...l-election-macron-le-pen-second-round-run-off

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## Vergennes

The walking man is happy.







What about the Frexit woman ?

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## Mage

When you see a beautiful older women thy shall march towards her. Gospel of Macron.


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## Vergennes

Macron elected with 65,5% ! Vive la France !

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## HannibalBarca

*Congrats Mister NoOne!*

*



*

Two ppl must be proud...They have made the best Investment...ever Done...

Now another Incoming Battle... Législative...

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Macron elected with 65,5% ! Vive la France !




65.5%! A larger margin than the polls were predicting. 

He will become the youngest-ever President of France.

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Macron elected with 65,5% ! Vive la France !


Lol... pic from BFMTv...

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## Vergennes

A great victory indeed. A great victory for the hope,the unity,the freedom and the future. A great victory for Europe in these difficult times. Now,the next battle will be the legislative election. All the luck for our new President !

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> A great victory indeed. A great victory for the hope,the unity,the freedom and the future. A great victory for Europe in these difficult times. Now,the next battle will be the legislative election. All the luck for our new President !



"Front National" 's name will change... Well Well Well...

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## ValerioAurelius

Vergennes said:


> A great victory indeed. A great victory for the hope,the unity,the freedom and the future. A great victory for Europe in these difficult times. Now,the next battle will be the legislative election. All the luck for our new President !



Congratulation Vergennes. I wish you and your country the best and hope that i´m wrong in what i believe will happen now. A sad day for Italy since we stand alone now.


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## LA se Karachi



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## T-72M1

looks like Lel Pen got schlonged.


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## LA se Karachi



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## Armstrong

@Vergennes - So Macron won....!

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## Zulkarneyn

France may keep the EU together with the outcome of this election. 
Good luck

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## LA se Karachi



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## HannibalBarca



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## RabzonKhan

Congratulations to President, Emmanuel Macron!

Congratulations to French voters for rejecting fear mongering, hate and bigotry.

Viva La France!

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## HannibalBarca



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## BHarwana

French Presidential election is won by MACRON and LE PEN has lost the election.

MACRON won by 65% of the vote

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## Vergennes

Armstrong said:


> @Vergennes - So Macron won....!



I am glad today that France just like The Netherlands and Austria rejected the extremes. I am also glad to see the Trump,Brexiter and Russian trolls crying. 



LA se Karachi said:


>



An amazing and spectacular rise indeed. Months ago it seemed unbelievable for him to be in the second round,let alone becoming the next French president. How could a nobody of the politics years ago could become president ? There should be a movie or a book about it.





HannibalBarca said:


>

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## BHarwana

At the age of 39 Macron will be the youngest ever President of France.


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## Salim_Shady

Congrats France! and thank you for breaking the streak of brexit and trump. Ultimately sense prevailed.

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## NakedLunch

Looks like Europe's lurch to the Right has fizzled out. Europeans havent got the stomach to usher in anything that resembles a prelude to a legitimization of far right and neo-Nazi politics. The scars of WW2 wont fade that easily. Business as usual in Europe. There must be a lot of nativists all over Europe crying into their beers tonight.

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## AUz

Thanks to Trump, far right politics have been exposed for the complete failure they are.

First Dutch elections and now France.

Funny thing is, Trump isn't even a right wing 

I feel so bad for so called "nationalists" @flamer84

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## LA se Karachi

RabzonKhan said:


> Congratulations to President, Emmanuel Macron!
> 
> Congratulations to French voters for rejecting fear mongering, hate and bigotry.
> 
> Viva La France!




Nice to see you here, my friend. They _decisively_ rejected Le Pen, even with higher than expected abstention.

And yes---congratulations to France, the French people, @Vergennes, and @Taygibay .

Vive la France!



Vergennes said:


> I am glad today that France just like The Netherlands and Austria rejected the extremes. I am also glad to see the Trump,Brexiter and Russian trolls crying.



 



Vergennes said:


> An amazing and spectacular rise indeed. Months ago it seemed unbelievable for him to be in the second round,let alone becoming the next French president. How could a nobody of the politics years ago could become president ? There should be a movie or a book about it.




A meteoric rise. I've never seen anything quite like it. I've been rooting for him since the beginning. I never expected him to get this far. I guess he did_ "create the surprise"_:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/fren...ws-and-discussions.460535/page-5#post-9120649

 @Louiq XIV

Not to mention that he will become the youngest-ever President of France. That itself is quite an achievement.



Vergennes said:


>

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## Vergennes

Hope for the President and his party to win the coming legislative elections,form a government and get France back on the tracks. The top priorities will be the fight against unemployment,poverty,terrorism,fight for ecology etc. and of course get the economy back on the tracks. 

The new president will pay his first visit to the French troops deployed abroad fighting terrorism. He will then go to Berlin to meet Merkel.

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## ValerioAurelius

NakedLunch said:


> Looks like Europe's lurch to the Right has fizzled out. Europeans havent got the stomach to usher in anything that resembles a prelude to a legitimization of far right and neo-Nazi politics. The scars of WW2 wont fade that easily. Business as usual in Europe. There must be a lot of nativists all over Europe crying into their beers tonight.



You seem to be a naivist. 

lePen and otehr far right are a symptom. The sickness is neoliberalism. Macron is neo liberal. If you see this as a victory you must be very sad.

People like MAcron are the reason why Europe is in the state it is. As most media say, the victory of Macron will only make things worse. If he fails (and he will) there will be much worse options than LePen.


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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

Time for defence deal with France

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## ValerioAurelius

AUz said:


> Thanks to Trump, far right politics have been exposed for the complete failure they are.
> 
> First Dutch elections and now France.
> 
> Funny thing is, Trump isn't even a right wing
> 
> I feel so bad for so called "nationalists" @flamer84



In Dutch won the guy who beat up Turks to pulp and hunted dogs on them. The far right is a catalyst and an important one. It corrects certain problems. The right now learned to stop going left. 

As for trump, since he is President american economy is booming. He achieved more in 100 days than Obama in 8 years.


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## LA se Karachi



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## NakedLunch

ValerioAurelius said:


> *You seem to be a naivist. *
> 
> lePen and otehr far right are a symptom. The sickness is neoliberalism. Macron is neo liberal. If you see this as a victory you must be very sad.
> 
> People like MAcron are the reason why Europe is in the state it is. As most media say, the victory of Macron will only make things worse. If he fails (and he will) there will be much worse options than LePen.



I dont see this as a victory at all. As far as I am concerned it is business as usual. The controlled opposition was Le Pen and Macron is the other side of the same coin. If I told you what I really thought I would be sent on another vacation by the moderators here. I have to self censor. Europeans do not control European politics. Those strings are pulled by someone else.

Heard of this guy? I happen to agree with a lot of what he says. He used to be in a band called mayhem and then Burzum. I have leanings towards some of what he says. However, like I said, when I say too much or speak too frankly, I get sent on vacation and my posts get deleted by the dozen.


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## jamal18

65% is pretty much a landslide..... the right has been smashed. Thank God.

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## ValerioAurelius

jamal18 said:


> 65% is pretty much a landslide..... the right has been smashed. Thank God.



The right made the largest win ever. Basicly over one third of population basicly left the system. Mavron stated in his own speech now that he understands why so many voted FN and want be their president as well...which will not happen. An elitist bankster stands for radical neoliberalism. The far right as well as far left will block him and make things worse than they are now. Macron is hated in the villages, in southern france and the eastern parts. France needs massive change, changes he is too weak to achieve.


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## LA se Karachi



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## xenon54 out

Vergennes said:


> Macron elected with 65,5% ! Vive la France !


65%? Damn.

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## Steve781

We elected a Macron twenty years ago. Didn't work out.


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## HannibalBarca

xenon54 said:


> 65%? Damn.


It's 65.8% now... When all vote will be open, it will mostly touch the 66% mark.
It's a good score... But in 2002 when France got "Front national" for the first time, like today..the result was 83%...


Steve781 said:


> We elected a Macron twenty years ago. Didn't work out.
> View attachment 395291



Well thanks god it's not a Blair 2.0... Read his program... and you'll see

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## xenon54 out

HannibalBarca said:


> It's 65.8% now... When all vote will be open, it will mostly touch the 66% mark.

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## LA se Karachi

@Vergennes @Taygibay @Louiq XIV

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## Vergennes

The results so far by departements.








xenon54 said:


> 65%? Damn.



More than 90% for the French living abroad.

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## LA se Karachi



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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> The results so far by departements.
> 
> View attachment 395293
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More than 90% for the French living abroad.



Nice shift for my Department... It was Lepen in first round...now Macron...


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## KediKesenFare3

A dark day for France, Europe and especially for the UK. Who knows, Macron is maybe the one who'll help FN to win the next election eventually. We shouldn't give up our hopes.


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## LA se Karachi



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## KediKesenFare3

xenon54 said:


> 65%? Damn.



No. It's quite the opposite. Look at the historic figures, voter turn out and the large number of voters who deliberately invalidated their ballot papers. This is under no circumstances a "landslide" win.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

Results so far by departements. 






@LA se Karachi Macron came first in my commune with nearly 85% of the votes.

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## xenon54 out

KediKesenFare said:


> No. It's quite the opposite. Look at the historic figures, voter turn out and the large number of voters who deliberately invalidated their ballot papers. This is under no circumstances a "landslide" win.


Still happy that right wing couldnt win.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Results so far by departements.




Macron is doing very well all across France---especially in western France, central France, and the Parisian Region.

Le Pen is strongest in northeastern France, and the southern coast---mirroring her result in the first round.








Vergennes said:


> @LA se Karachi Macron came first in my commune with nearly 85% of the votes.




Nice! 

Which department are you from, if you don't mind me asking?

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Nice!
> 
> Which department are you from, if you don't mind me asking?



The Hauts-de-Seine. 92. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauts-de-Seine



Vergennes said:


> Results so far by departements.
> 
> View attachment 395298

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> The Hauts-de-Seine. 92.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauts-de-Seine




Macron is currently getting *90%* of the vote in Paris.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Macron is currently getting *90%* of the vote in Paris.



There are 10 communes that voted Macron at 100%.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> There are 10 communes that voted Macron at 100%.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> @LA se Karachi Macron came first in my commune with nearly 85% of the votes.



Well, he got 87% of the vote here in my district (Los Angeles).  





_
https://france-amerique.com/electio...resultats-du-second-tour-en-amerique-du-nord/ _

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## Path-Finder

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/861368765124141056

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## Zibago

LA se Karachi said:


> Macron is doing very well all across France---especially in western France, central France, and the Parisian Region.
> 
> Le Pen is strongest in northeastern France, and the southern coast---mirroring her result in the first round.
> 
> View attachment 395301
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nice!
> 
> Which department are you from, if you don't mind me asking?


What are the reasons behind Le Pen,s win the regions that are heavy yellow?
Heavy migration or economic difficulties?

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## LA se Karachi

Zibago said:


> What are the reasons behind Le Pen,s win the regions that are heavy yellow?
> Heavy migration or economic difficulties?




Primarily economic hardship, it seems:











From the first round:

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## Vergennes

Macron leads in the vast majority of the French departements.






He also leads in every of France's regions.

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## Mage

LA se Karachi said:


>


I like Bayrou. Hope Macron makes him the PM.

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## Vergennes

Philia said:


> I like Bayrou. Hope Macron makes him the PM.



Macron said Bayrou "would have an important role in my majority".

Macron has already chosen his prime minister. He will reveal his/her name after the transfer of power this sunday. The _En Marche !_ secretary did not exclude,that a political figure from the right could become Macron's prime minister. 

According to _Le Monde_,there are currently three hypothesis ;

-The PM could come from The Republicans
-The PM could be a loyal figure from _En Marche !_
-The PM could be a Socialist figure that joined his party and that is also appreciated by the right.

Of course let's wait & see.

PS : _En Marche !_ will transform itself into a full political party for the coming legislative elections under the name of "_La République en marche_".

Marine Le Pen after her defeat vowed to radically transform the Front National,which will also change its name.

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## Path-Finder

Le Pen got almost 10million votes Macron got almost 17.5million! That has to mean that a lot of voters chose not to vote. secondly French election process is flipping hard to grasp.

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## Providence

@Vergennes bro congrats ! Any major policy changes you expecting post Macron assuming power ? 

@waz @SMS Derfflinger @Taygibay

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## Vergennes

Path-Finder said:


> Le Pen got almost 10million votes Macron got almost 17.5million! That has to mean that a lot of voters chose not to vote.



Emmanuel Macron actually got 20,753,798 votes.
Marine Le Pen got 10,644,118 votes.



> secondly French election process is flipping hard to grasp.



Come on,it's not that hard !

The people vote and if no candidate reaches the 50% mark there's a run-off between the first and the second candidate with the most share of votes. Then the run-off takes place and the one reaching the 50% mark is elected as President. 

There's a twos round system in every of France's elections. (A part during the EU parliament election)

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## Path-Finder

Vergennes said:


> Emmanuel Macron actually got 20,753,798 votes.
> Marine Le Pen got 10,644,118 votes.
> 
> 
> 
> Come on,it's not that hard !
> 
> The people vote and if no candidate reaches the 50% mark there's a run-off between the first and the second candidate with the most share of votes. Then the run-off takes place and the one reaching the 50% mark is elected as President.
> 
> There's a twos round system in every of France's elections. (A part during the EU parliament election)


I think its the combination of elections and the media facade that makes things complicated  But elections in France are a lot more on knife's edge than UK election as I have observed.


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## LA se Karachi

*Final Results: *






_https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0 _

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## Vergennes

*Macron's party is seen taking the first round of French legislative vote, polls say*

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/07/macrons-party-seen-taking-first-round-of-french-legislative-vote.html

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *Macron's party is seen taking the first round of French legislative vote, polls say*
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/07/macrons-party-seen-taking-first-round-of-french-legislative-vote.html



House of Cards Version Frenchie sur TF1... J'adore...


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## Vergennes

HannibalBarca said:


> House of Cards Version Frenchie sur TF1... J'adore...



Yeah I've watched it too. Exeptional documentary,exeptional candidate with exeptional teams. 

We love you Mr President !


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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> Yeah I've watched it too. Exeptional documentary,exeptional candidate with exeptional teams.
> 
> We love you Mr President !
> 
> View attachment 395540



Le staff est génial... La Renoi... une perle.

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## SMS Derfflinger

Providence said:


> @Vergennes bro congrats ! Any major policy changes you expecting post Macron assuming power ?



Yes, Germany will do a lot to strenghten Macron as president, especially some of his reform ideas for Europe.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Nilgiri

Le Pen pretty much doubled the support for FN from best case scenario of her dad....that is no small accomplishment. The tide is rising and will probably continue to do so if status quo continues and ex-establishment voters continue to increase (and dont vote or even switch to FN) and FN core stays strong and gathers new members.

Now she has 5 years (maybe 10) or so to figure out how to expand by another 15% or so at the minimum. Doubt Macron can really end that trend unless he brings about revolutionary change and results on the ground....thus he has to perform, otherwise he ends up being de facto France's Obama.

This situation is a good silver lining one actually for France....

a) its not some pure establishment guy (fillon, hamon) but neo-establishment guy (thus more flexibility and less long time sponsors/vested interests)
b) therefore has to deliver, otherwise french electorate gets more disgruntled and FN will gain long term as polarisation/consolidation increases
c) parliament elections soon will present better picture of what consolidation each political stream will have right now and how that will influence Macron
d) "Optics"/"stability" still seem to play bigger role in France compared to "results"/"upheaval-tension" for time being. Up to macron, his team and larger French establishment to figure out how to bring a more sustainable long term equilibrium to stop losing ground to FN....or I feel they are toast down the road.

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## Taygibay

Providence said:


> @Vergennes bro congrats ! Any major policy changes you expecting post Macron assuming power ?
> 
> @waz @SMS Derfflinger @Taygibay



Why was I placed with our barbarian cousins?
Not complaining cuz they're a fine bunch BTW,
just wondering!

But since you almost sort of asked, this French
guy as is his habit is pondering the future in a
very different way than what we read here and
around the media and deploring that his nation,
which is honestly a harbour of hard free thought,
has shamed itself by giving a third of the vote to
a fascist leaning party 77 years after suffering it.

Not happy at all, Tay.

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## SMS Derfflinger

Taygibay said:


> Why was I placed with our barbarian cousins?
> Not complaining cuz they're a fine bunch BTW,
> just wondering!



Ach, come on Tay, catched between the British and German cuisine...what could be better for your french soul...

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## Taygibay

Jeder muss sich seinen eigenen Weg machen.
For cooking, I'll go Deutsch in that alternative.

Tay.

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## Vergennes

@Philia @LA se Karachi 

* What's in Emmanuel Macron's in-tray for France? *

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/08/emmanuel-macrons-in-tray-france/

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

Macron's party (_La République en marche_) today unveiled 428 candidates out of 577 for the coming legislative election that will be held in a month.

Some key data :

-214 are women
-214 are men
-52% have never held elected office
-The average age is 46 years old (compared to 60 for the current_ assemblée nationale_)
-The youngest candidate is 24 years old
-The oldest candidate is 72 years old
-93% of the candidates are employed
-4% are retired
-2% are currently unemployed
-1% are students
-24 are MPs of the current _assemblée nationale_
-77% of the candidates have currently no mandate.

Recent Harris Interactive-Indeed poll for the first round of the legislative election ;

_La République en marche_ and MoDem : 29% (+3)
The Republicans and UDI : 20% (-2)
National Front : 20% (-2)
The Unbowed France : 14% (+1)
Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 7% (-1)
The Greens : 3% (-)
Arise France : 3% (-)
French Communist Party : 2% (-)
Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 2% (+1)

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

If I could resume the state of the Socialist Party,I would take this picture.






Jean-Christophe Cambadélis,first secretary of the Socialist Party (begging) campaigning in his Parisian constituency. Few curious persons watching the 'spectacle'. The sinking continues.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

*When is the French inauguration 2017? What will French President Emmanuel Macron do first?*

http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...rance-President-Emmanuel-Macron-what-do-first

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## Vergennes

Today is the transfer of power.
François Hollande looking for the last time at the Élysée palace gardens. 






@LA se Karachi @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri 

The end of an era.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

Vergennes said:


> Today is the transfer of power.
> François Hollande looking for the last time at the Élysée palace gardens.
> 
> View attachment 396650
> 
> 
> @LA se Karachi @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri
> 
> The end of an era.
> 
> View attachment 396651



@waz

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## Path-Finder

he speaks very good English first for a French President I think.

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## Vergennes

Path-Finder said:


> he speaks very good English first for a French President I think.



He is among the few French politicians to speak fluently English.

If you would compare with François Hollande...

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## Path-Finder

Vergennes said:


> He is among the few French politicians to speak fluently English.
> 
> If you would compare with François Hollande...


wah. At least Macron will get his point across to Trump and Brexiters with relative ease.


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## Vergennes

The President reviewed the 4 detachments of the armed forces. The Republican Guard (Gendarmerie),the air force,the navy and the army.










He was given the military honors,also reminding him that the President is the chief of the armed forces,and at the same moment,two 75mm guns model 1897 fired 21 ammunitions for his inauguration.
A tradition that goes back to the monarchy era where 101 ammunitions were fired during the death of a king and to greet and announce the successor taking power. It was reduced to 21 by Charles De Gaulle... "21 Republican canons fire". @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri @AUSTERLITZ






He went through the _Champs-Élysées_ in a military vehicle,escorted by the Republican Guard to go to the unknown soldier's tomb under the _Arc de Triomphe. 
_





















Macron writes in the golden book "I will be always at your sides to France's and our people's service". Then greets some veterans.









He then returned to the Élysée palace in a Citroën DS7.










He made a stop to where the Police officer Xavier Jugelé was cowardly assasinated by a terrorist on april 20.






The new President will head this afternoon to the military hospital of Percy to meet injured military personnals,his first symbolic move.
-
He will name his PM tomorrow and the members of the government will be revealed on tuesday.

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> Today is the transfer of power.
> François Hollande looking for the last time at the Élysée palace gardens.
> 
> View attachment 396650
> 
> 
> @LA se Karachi @Blue Marlin @Nilgiri
> 
> The end of an era.
> 
> View attachment 396651


he was the worst thing that happened to france

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## LA se Karachi



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## Taygibay

​Is it just me or does that look like a combo
Lepen-Trump-May all wrapped into one? 


I'm glad Hollande was applauded by his staff.
Fair play may be British but I believe sincerely
that French people don't try to humiliate losers.
He's done, he's gone : let him be!



Blue Marlin said:


> he was the worst thing that happened to france



Let's agree on recently and even that ain't clear.
Personally, Thiers holds that position clearly.
Every time I visit the Père-Lachaise cemetery, I
pray/cry by le Mur des Fédérés and have to ...
restrain an immense urge to piss on his tomb!!!

I agree with a real French patriot, Georges Clémenceau :
« Thiers, le type même du bourgeois cruel et borné, qui s’enfonce sans broncher dans le sang. »​

To all their own, I guess.
And great day all, Tay.

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## mike2000 is back

Vergennes said:


> Macron's party (_La République en marche_) today unveiled 428 candidates out of 577 for the coming legislative election that will be held in a month.
> 
> Some key data :
> 
> -214 are women
> -214 are men
> -52% have never held elected office
> -The average age is 46 years old (compared to 60 for the current_ assemblée nationale_)
> -The youngest candidate is 24 years old
> -The oldest candidate is 72 years old
> -93% of the candidates are employed
> -4% are retired
> -2% are currently unemployed
> -1% are students
> -24 are MPs of the current _assemblée nationale_
> -77% of the candidates have currently no mandate.
> 
> Recent Harris Interactive-Indeed poll for the first round of the legislative election ;
> 
> _La République en marche_ and MoDem : 29% (+3)
> The Republicans and UDI : 20% (-2)
> National Front : 20% (-2)
> The Unbowed France : 14% (+1)
> Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 7% (-1)
> The Greens : 3% (-)
> Arise France : 3% (-)
> French Communist Party : 2% (-)
> Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 2% (+1)


That's alot of women there, same amount as men. Impressive.

@Vergennes. sa femme qui est de 24 ans son aînée et qui fut sa prof de théâtre quand il était lycéen et qui est déjà mère de trois enfants et grand-mère de sept petits-enfants ne crois tu pas que de curiosité, son âge pourrait alors devenir un problème, voire un handicap pour son Mari? Puisque en 2022,(au prochaine presidentielle) elle aura presque 70 ans. Juste une question.


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## Vergennes

mike2000 is back said:


> That's alot of women there, same amount as men. Impressive.



Yes,half of his MPs candidates will be women. Half of the government members will be women.



> @Vergennes. sa femme qui est de 24 ans son aînée et qui fut sa prof de théâtre quand il était lycéen et qui est déjà mère de trois enfants et grand-mère de sept petits-enfants ne crois tu pas de curiosité, son âge pourrait alors devenir un problème, voire un handicap pour son Mari? Puisque en 2022,(au prochaine presidentielle) elle aura presque 70 ans. Juste une question.



If despite the age gap by then he still loves his wife,we can only encourage him. That's up to him to decide about everything related to his relationship,which is BTW,his private life. I know this relationship might not seem very usual,but we just want a competent President and government who will well manage the country. Not much care about his private life. But as for me,I really like our first lady and wish her success. 



Philia said:


> I like Bayrou. Hope Macron makes him the PM.



@LA se Karachi 

Edouard Philippe,46 years old centre-right mayor of Le Havre and close to moderate conservative Alain Juppé,has been named as Prime Minister. His government will be revealed tomorrow.

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## Louiq XIV

mike2000 is back said:


> ]. sa femme qui est de 24 ans son aînée et qui fut sa prof de théâtre quand il était lycéen et qui est déjà mère de trois enfants et grand-mère de sept petits-enfants ne crois tu pas que de curiosité, son âge pourrait alors devenir un problème, voire un handicap pour son Mari? Puisque en 2022,(au prochaine presidentielle) elle aura presque 70 ans. Juste une question.



Si dans 5 ans il n'a plus que l'age de sa femme comme problème c'est qu'il aura bien travaillé ;-)
Mais je ne crois plus au Père Noël depuis longtemps.




Vergennes said:


> I know this relationship might not seem very usual,but we just want a competent President and government who will well manage the country. Not much care about his private life.



Yes the French people doesn't really care about that. We've always been very tolerant (up to a certain point of course) with our Leader's private life.

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## mike2000 is back

Louiq XIV said:


> Mais je ne crois plus au Père Noël depuis longtemps.


Ahahhahaha.,faut pas perdre espoir mon pote.

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## Vergennes

*Why Macron picked unknown Edouard Philippe as the right fit for Prime Minister *

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170515/why-macron-chose-edouard-philippe-to-be-his-prime-minister

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## Vergennes

Vergennes said:


> Yes,half of his MPs candidates will be women. Half of the government members will be women.
> 
> 
> 
> If despite the age gap by then he still loves his wife,we can only encourage him. That's up to him to decide about everything related to his relationship,which is BTW,his private life. I know this relationship might not seem very usual,but we just want a competent President and government who will well manage the country. Not much care about his private life. But as for me,I really like our first lady and wish her success.
> 
> 
> 
> @LA se Karachi
> 
> Edouard Philippe,46 years old centre-right mayor of Le Havre and close to moderate conservative Alain Juppé,has been named as Prime Minister. His government will be revealed tomorrow.
> 
> View attachment 397034



Transfer of power with current Socialist PM Bernard Cazeneuve is now over.






Probably a cool guy.






A very appreciated person in Le Havre where he's the mayor.

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## Blue Marlin

Vergennes said:


> about his private life. But as for me,I really like our first lady and wish her success.


i never knew you were into cougars 

anyway im quiet looking forward to see what changes he will bring, if he's any good then we'll negotiate a trade. you can have mrs may and we can have macron, might just throw in corbyn to sweeten the deal.

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## Vergennes

Blue Marlin said:


> i never knew you were into cougars



I like our first lady.... but not in that way. 



> anyway im quiet looking forward to see what changes he will bring, if he's any good then we'll negotiate a trade. you can have mrs may and we can have macron, might just throw in corbyn to sweeten the deal.



Also looking forward for his work. First he'll need to win the legislative elections next month. If he doesn't,he will have to pick a PM from the majority. We're going to vote the 11 and 18 june to choose our MPs..... Just days after you will elect King Corbyn as PM !

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

*Why does France's president name a PM and government before June's crucial elections?*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170516/wh...dent-choose-a-government-before-the-elections

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## Vergennes

@Louiq XIV @Taygibay

Le Drian remains in the government.... but not at defence !


* Newly installed French president Emmanuel Macron unveiled his first government on Wednesday with the left, the right, the centre and ecologists are all represented in his first government. *

*Main info*


*Macron unveils first centrist government featuring figures from left and right and a famous ecologist*
*The government is also balanced between men and women*
Macron named his government on Wednesday which featured figures from the right, the left, the centre and a famous ecologist.

Macron and his Prime Minister Philippe Edouard named Bruno Le Maire from the right-wing Republicans party as the Minister for Economy.

Socialist party stalwart and veteran of François Hollande's government Jean-Yves Le Drian remains in the government but moves over from defence minister to Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs.

Nicolas Hulot has been named Minister of Ecology Transition. Hulot has been touted as a minister in every government over recent years so it is somewhat of a coup for Macron to persuade him to join his cabinet.

Macron's long term ally Gerard Collomb, the mayor of Lyon, is named interior minister and centrist François Bayrou, who joined forces with Macron at a crucial point in the campaign was named minister for justice.

Sylvie Goulard an MEP with Bayrou's MoDem party was named Defence Minister. Goulard has been Praised for her experience of the EU institutions and helped organised Macron's trip to Berlin to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel during the election campaign.

Other women named as part of the government include Agnès Buzyn as minister for solidarity and health, Muriel Penicaud as minister of labour and Françoise Nyssen as culture minister.

Annick Girardin has been named minister of overseas territories and Laura Flessel the minister of sport.

On the campaign trail ahead of his election on May 7, Macron pledged a slimmed-down group of ministers of around 15 people, half of them women and including people from outside politics.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170517/live-macron-unveils-his-first-french-government

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## Vergennes

Vergennes said:


> @Louiq XIV @Taygibay
> 
> Le Drian remains in the government.... but not at defence !
> 
> 
> * Newly installed French president Emmanuel Macron unveiled his first government on Wednesday with the left, the right, the centre and ecologists are all represented in his first government. *
> 
> *Main info*
> 
> 
> *Macron unveils first centrist government featuring figures from left and right and a famous ecologist*
> *The government is also balanced between men and women*
> Macron named his government on Wednesday which featured figures from the right, the left, the centre and a famous ecologist.
> 
> Macron and his Prime Minister Philippe Edouard named Bruno Le Maire from the right-wing Republicans party as the Minister for Economy.
> 
> Socialist party stalwart and veteran of François Hollande's government Jean-Yves Le Drian remains in the government but moves over from defence minister to Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs.
> 
> Nicolas Hulot has been named Minister of Ecology Transition. Hulot has been touted as a minister in every government over recent years so it is somewhat of a coup for Macron to persuade him to join his cabinet.
> 
> Macron's long term ally Gerard Collomb, the mayor of Lyon, is named interior minister and centrist François Bayrou, who joined forces with Macron at a crucial point in the campaign was named minister for justice.
> 
> Sylvie Goulard an MEP with Bayrou's MoDem party was named Defence Minister. Goulard has been Praised for her experience of the EU institutions and helped organised Macron's trip to Berlin to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel during the election campaign.
> 
> Other women named as part of the government include Agnès Buzyn as minister for solidarity and health, Muriel Penicaud as minister of labour and Françoise Nyssen as culture minister.
> 
> Annick Girardin has been named minister of overseas territories and Laura Flessel the minister of sport.
> 
> On the campaign trail ahead of his election on May 7, Macron pledged a slimmed-down group of ministers of around 15 people, half of them women and including people from outside politics.
> 
> https://www.thelocal.fr/20170517/live-macron-unveils-his-first-french-government



*Emmanuel Macron : President of the Republic
Edouard Philippe : Prime Minister *

*The government ;*

*Bruno Le Maire : Minister of the Economy
Gerard Collomb : Minister of the Interior
François Bayrou : Minister of Justice
Sylvie Goulard : Defence Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian : Foreign Minister
Nicolas Hulot : Minister of Ecology
Muriél Penicaud : Minister of Labour
Agnès Buzyn : Minister of Health
Jacques Mézard : Agriculture Minister
Frédérique Vidal : Minister for Higher Education, Research and Innovation
Laura Flessel : Sports Minister
Jean Michel Blanquer : Education Minister
Gérald Darmanin : Budget Minister
Richard Ferrand : Minister for the cohesion of territories
Elisabeth Borne : Minister of Transport
Annick Girardin : Minister for Overseas Territories
Francoise Nyssen : Minister of Culture
Marielle de Sarnez : Minister for European Affairs*

*Secretary of states*
*
Christopher Castaner : Secretary of state in charge of relations with parliament
Marlene Schiappa : Secretary of state for equality
Sophie Cluzel : Secretary of state for disabled people
Mounir Mahjoubi : Secretary of state for digital technology.*

A balanced government in my opinion with figures from the left,the centre and the right and the civil society. Several new faces not well known by the public. @Philia @LA se Karachi

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## HannibalBarca

Vergennes said:


> *Emmanuel Macron : President of the Republic
> Edouard Philippe : Prime Minister *
> 
> *The government ;*
> 
> *Bruno Le Maire : Minister of the Economy
> Gerard Collomb : Minister of the Interior
> François Bayrou : Minister of Justice
> Sylvie Goulard : Defence Minister
> Jean-Yves Le Drian : Foreign Minister
> Nicolas Hulot : Minister of Ecology
> Muriél Penicaud : Minister of Labour
> Agnès Buzyn : Minister of Health
> Jacques Mézard : Agriculture Minister
> Frédérique Vidal : Minister for Higher Education, Research and Innovation
> Laura Flessel : Sports Minister
> Jean Michel Blanquer : Education Minister
> Gérald Darmanin : Budget Minister
> Richard Ferrand : Minister for the cohesion of territories
> Elisabeth Borne : Minister of Transport
> Annick Girardin : Minister for Overseas Territories
> Francoise Nyssen : Minister of Culture
> Marielle de Sarnez : Minister for European Affairs*
> 
> *Secretary of states*
> *
> Christopher Castaner : Secretary of state in charge of relations with parliament
> Marlene Schiappa : Secretary of state for equality
> Sophie Cluzel : Secretary of state for disabled people
> Mounir Mahjoubi : Secretary of state for digital technology.*
> 
> A balanced government in my opinion with figures from the left,the centre and the right. Several new faces not well known by the public. @Philia @LA se Karachi



I'm against LeMaire Eco poste...
Collomb in Interior.... ouais... not sure about that...
And wasn't Mahjoubi going for a deputy post in Paris??


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## Taygibay

Ben Vauberges mon gars, you must be happy?

Goulard la bosseuse devrait faire l'affaire surtout
que Le Drian l'a préparée durant la campagne et
puis le dit JYLD aux affaires étrangères, ça permet
des synergies comme disent les "manage_ux_" et
autres certifiés incapables de résultats.

Transl. Goulard was trained by Le Drian to succeed
him as MinDef and he can still sell Rafales at Foreign
Affairs.

Fingers crossed, Tay.

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## Vergennes

*Macron's new government far from set in stone with crucial elections ahead*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170518/macrons-government-not-set-in-stone

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## Vergennes

Recent Harris Interactive poll for the first round of the legislative election ;

_La République en marche_ and MoDem : 32% (+3)
The Republicans and UDI : 19% (-1)
National Front : 19% (-1)
The Unbowed France : 15% (+1)
Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 6% (-1)
The Greens : 3% (-)
Arise France : 3% (-)
French Communist Party : 2% (-)
Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 1% (-1)

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## Louiq XIV

Vergennes said:


> Recent Harris Interactive poll for the first round of the legislative election ;
> 
> _La République en marche_ and MoDem : 32% (+3)
> The Republicans and UDI : 19% (-1)
> National Front : 19% (-1)
> The Unbowed France : 15% (+1)
> Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 6% (-1)
> The Greens : 3% (-)
> Arise France : 3% (-)
> French Communist Party : 2% (-)
> Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 1% (-1)



Looks good to me. I really hope that macron will have a majority in the parliament to get a chance to rule according his project. I'm not more convinced now than I was before the election but he was the "best choice" for me and I think he deserve a chance.

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## Vergennes

Taygibay said:


> Ben Vauberges mon gars, you must be happy?
> 
> Goulard la bosseuse devrait faire l'affaire surtout
> que Le Drian l'a préparée durant la campagne et
> puis le dit JYLD aux affaires étrangères, ça permet
> des synergies comme disent les "manage_ux_" et
> autres certifiés incapables de résultats.
> 
> Transl. Goulard was trained by Le Drian to succeed
> him as MinDef and he can still sell Rafales at Foreign
> Affairs.
> 
> Fingers crossed, Tay.



Goulard as a convinced pro-European,who's tough but open to dialogue,who also knows very well the EU institutions will most likely push for the ideas of the Europe of defence,important in the eyes of our president. Her appointment makes sense. Her title is also interesting. "_Ministre des armées_". I wonder what her role will be. Does that mean the President will recover major power and decisions making from the MinDef like I've read ? Seems logical to me as the President is the chief of the armed forces and also the guarantor of the national security and integrity. 

Macron since the begining showed that he endorsed his role of military chief. Interesting times ahead.

Also,it must be noted that,unless the legislative elections change everything,we have a minister in Bercy that will not oppose any major funding for the defence like we've seen during the past five years.

So far,so good.


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## Taygibay

We'll see after the 18th as Louiq said. Ou ton post #648.

Word is those in govt have to win their seats for one
and then the proportions of parliament seats by all
parties may require a redraw of the present team.

And yes, the President has regal powers on the armed
forces and on Foreign Affairs so that JYLD is either no2
or his right arm.

Pourvu que ça dure/ May it keep, Tay.

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## mike2000 is back

Vergennes said:


> Recent Harris Interactive poll for the first round of the legislative election ;
> 
> _La République en marche_ and MoDem : 32% (+3)
> The Republicans and UDI : 19% (-1)
> National Front : 19% (-1)
> The Unbowed France : 15% (+1)
> Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 6% (-1)
> The Greens : 3% (-)
> Arise France : 3% (-)
> French Communist Party : 2% (-)
> Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 1% (-1)


Wow.... déjà 32%? 
. Semblerais que la gauche est à la ramasse et la droite dans le caniveau. Quant au Front national, il ne se porte guère mieux. Les ondes de choc, au même tire que les bombes à fragmentation, ne font pas dans le détail . tout le monde est KO debout devant cet adversaire(Mr.macron de great.lol ) que personne n’a vu venir et que tout le monde –myself en first et ce, one more time, a gravement sous-estimé.
Let's see how he performs in this legislative elections. Everything will depend on that. But so far, je dit: bravo macron.

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## HannibalBarca

No Voting in June for me...


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## mike2000 is back

HannibalBarca said:


> No Voting in June for me...


Pourqoui ca?

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## HannibalBarca

mike2000 is back said:


> Pourqoui ca?



je ne serai pas en France...


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## mike2000 is back

HannibalBarca said:


> je ne serai pas en France...


Ah OK. Je croyais que toi aussi, comme disait @Louiq XIV : tu ne crois plus au Père Noël depuis longtemps.


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## HannibalBarca

mike2000 is back said:


> Ah OK. Je croyais que toi aussi, comme disait @Louiq XIV : tu ne crois plus au Père Noël depuis longtemps.


Pour être honnête... Je suis à un niveau social où le choix Macron or autres... qui, personnellement... m'importe peu... à la rigueur...le seul truc qui peut m’intéresser ...c'est l'ISF... J'ai voté surtout pour les autres... pour éviter la Faillite à mon pays...

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## Vergennes

mike2000 is back said:


> Wow.... déjà 32%?
> . Semblerais que la gauche est à la ramasse et la droite dans le caniveau. Quant au Front national, il ne se porte guère mieux. Les ondes de choc, au même tire que les bombes à fragmentation, ne font pas dans le détail . tout le monde est KO debout devant cet adversaire(Mr.macron de great.lol ) que personne n’a vu venir et que tout le monde –myself en first et ce, one more time, a gravement sous-estimé.
> Let's see how he performs in this legislative elections. Everything will depend on that. But so far, je dit: bravo macron.



Macron,the guy 3 years ago nobody heard about or knew what it was or who he was. Who's movement is 1 year old and who everyone at the beggining thought will never work or made fun about. Quit a success story.

As for the legislative elections,you must know that it's like 577 two rounds elections. The outcome is unpredictable,especially when there can be up to 4 candidates in the second round. I wonder how Macron's candidates will fare especially against well established candidates of the other parties in every of France's constituencies.
The turnout is also an important unknown,but is predicted to be low. It was between 55%-60% for the precedent elections. 

The Republicans especially are hell on wanting to impose a cohabitation or at least be part of some sort of coalitions.

Of course polls must be taken with a pinch of salt.

Interesting times ahead.

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## mike2000 is back

HannibalBarca said:


> Pour être honnête... Je suis à un niveau social où le choix Macron or autres... qui personnellement... m'importe peu... le seul truc qui peut m’intéresser à la rigueur...c'est l'ISF... J'ai voté surtout pour les autres... pour éviter la Faillite à mon pays...


Well, he seems to be the man who can push through economic and social reforms(something which has never been easy in France, luckily for us we already had our Thatcher moment lol ) and shake up the French system. Everything will depend on the upcoming legislative elections. So hopefully he can get the chance to prove himself , but for that he will need a clear majority to push through his reforms and change, else it will be useless. So hopefully you people will give him a clear majority/mandate to do so.


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## HannibalBarca

mike2000 is back said:


> Well, he seems to be the man who can push through economic and social reforms(something which has never been easy in France, luckily for us we already had our Thatcher moment lol ) and shake up the French system. Everything will depend on the upcoming legislative elections. So hopefully he can get the chance to prove himself , but for that he will need a clear majority to push through his reforms and change, else it will be useless. So hopefully you people will give him a clear majority/mandate to do so.



With a majority, it's always better ...that way he can pass things...peacefully... Otherwise he will need to pass with BruteForce... something he could do ( but it's badly seen...)


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## mike2000 is back

HannibalBarca said:


> With a majority, it's always better ...that way he can pass things...peacefully... Otherwise he will need to pass with BruteForce... something he could do ( but it's badly seen...)


If he doesn't get a majority ,then the question is: will he be an "iron man"?


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## HannibalBarca

mike2000 is back said:


> If he doesn't get a majority ,then the question is: will he be an "iron man"?



we will see


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## Vergennes

*Why are France's legislative elections so important to Macron? *

*Monday marks the official début in France of an unprecedented legislative election campaign with the stakes exceptionally high for all the political forces concerned.*

http://www.france24.com/en/20170522...gislative-elections-primer-macron-lower-house

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## Vergennes

Recent Elabe poll for the first round of the legislative election,_La République en marche_ and the MoDem are still leading. 

_La République en marche_ and MoDem : 33% (+1)
The Republicans and UDI : 20% (+1)
National Front : 19% (-)
The Unbowed France : 12% (-3)
Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left : 6,5% (+0,5)
The Greens : 2,5% (-0,5)
Arise France : 1,5% (-1,5)
French Communist Party : 2% (-)
Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 0,5% (-0,5)
Others : 3%

According to a recent opinionway poll,_La République en marche_ could gain between 280 to 300 seats.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


>



Macron also defeated Trump in his favourite (stupid) game,the handshake battle.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Macron also defeated Trump in his favourite (stupid) game,the handshake battle.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 399534




Lol! Good going by Macron. 

But it wasn't a fair fight. Trump has very small hands, after all. 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/history-donald-trump-small-hands-insult/story?id=37395515

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## Vergennes

*Macron's party seen winning absolute majority in French parliamentary vote: poll*

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN18S5M1

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## Vergennes

@Philia @LA se Karachi @Nilgiri

The French living abroad have voted way before those in France. The results have been released. The turnout rate is very low at 19,1%,remains stable compared to 2012. And this year,voters couldn't vote by internet because of fears of hacking.

Even if a candidate reached the 50% mark,he would still have to participate in a runoff (17 june) when the turnout is lower than 25%.

Political parties were fighting for the 11 constituencies representing the French living abroad. Out of 11 constituencies,_La République en Marche_ came first in 10. (I will only post the most important candidates)

*1st constituency (North America)* ;

*1st : Roland Lescure of La République en Marche : 57,53%
2nd : Frédéric Levebvre of the Republicans (the current MP for this constituency) : 14,53%*

*2nd constituency (Central,south America and the Carribeans ) *;

*1st : Paula Forteza of La République en Marche : 43,17%
2nd : Sergio Coronado of the Greens (the current MP for this constituency) : 23,61%
3rd : Pascal Drouhaud of the Republicans : 11,18%*

*3rd constituency (Northern Europe)* ;

*1st : Alexandre Holroyd of La République en Marche : 57,80%
2nd : Axelle Lemaire of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 9,83%
3rd : Laurence Azzena-Gougeon of the Republicans : 8,82%*

*4th constituency (Benelux)* ;

*1st : Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade of La République en Marche : 52,27%
2nd : Sophie Rauszer of the Unbowed France : 10,95%
3rd : Perrine Ledan of the Greens : 9,78%
4th : Valérie Bros of the Republicans : 9,08%
5th : Philip Cordery of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 6,28%*

*5th constituency (Andorra,Spain,Portugal,Monaco)* ;

*1st : Samantha Cazebonne of La Réublique en Marche : More than 50%
2nd : François Ralle Andreoli of Let's act together,supported by the Unbowed France and the Greens : 15,52%
3rd : This constituency was held by the Socialist Arnaud Leroy,but he did not run. Gabrielle Siry of the Socialist Party : 8,13%*

*6th constituency (Switzerland and Lichtenstein)* ;

*1st : Joachim Son Forget of La République en Marche : 63,55%
2nd : Claudine Schmid of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 15,76%*

*7th constituency (Central Europe and Balkans)* ;

*1st : Frédéric Petit of La République en Marche : 54,03%
2nd : Pierre-Yves Le Borgn' of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 13,88%
3rd : Philippe Gustin of the Republicans : 8,16%*

*8th constituency (Mediterranean (Italy,Cyprus,Turkey,Israel,Greece....) )* ;

*1st : Florence Drory of La République en Marche : 36,73%
2nd : Habib Meyer of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 35,51%
3rd : Benjamin Djiane of the Socialist Party : 2,13%*

*9th constituency (Magreb and Western Africa)* ;

*1st : Leila Aichi,independant : 20,29%
2nd : M’jid El Guerrab supported by La République en Marche : 18,93%*

*The current Socialist MP,Pouria Amirshahi,didn't run.*

*10th constituency (Middle East and Africa)* ;

*1st : Amal Amelia Lakrafi of La République en Marche : 60,08%
2nd : Alain Marsaud of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 18,89%*

*11th constituency (Eastern Europe,Asia,Pacific)* ;

*1st : Anne Genetet of La République en Marche : 54,11%
2nd : Thierry Mariani of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 18,78%*


Sorry for beign a bit long.

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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> @Philia @LA se Karachi @Nilgiri
> 
> The French living abroad have voted way before those in France. The results have been released. The turnout rate is very low at 19,1%,remains stable compared to 2012. And this year,voters couldn't vote by internet because of fears of hacking.
> 
> Even if a candidate reached the 50% mark,he would still have to participate in a runoff (17 june) when the turnout is lower than 25%.
> 
> Political parties were fighting for the 11 constituencies representing the French living abroad. Out of 11 constituencies,_La République en Marche_ came first in 10. (I will only post the most important candidates)
> 
> *1st constituency (North America)* ;
> 
> *1st : Roland Lescure of La République en Marche : 57,53%
> 2nd : Frédéric Levebvre of the Republicans (the current MP for this constituency) : 14,53%*
> 
> *2nd constituency (Central,south America and the Carribeans ) *;
> 
> *1st : Paula Forteza of La République en Marche : 43,17%
> 2nd : Sergio Coronado of the Greens (the current MP for this constituency) : 23,61%
> 3rd : Pascal Drouhaud of the Republicans : 11,18%*
> 
> *3rd constituency (Northern Europe)* ;
> 
> *1st : Alexandre Holroyd of La République en Marche : 57,80%
> 2nd : Axelle Lemaire of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 9,83%
> 3rd : Laurence Azzena-Gougeon of the Republicans : 8,82%*
> 
> *4th constituency (Benelux)* ;
> 
> *1st : Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade of La République en Marche : 52,27%
> 2nd : Sophie Rauszer of the Unbowed France : 10,95%
> 3rd : Perrine Ledan of the Greens : 9,78%
> 4th : Valérie Bros of the Republicans : 9,08%
> 5th : Philip Cordery of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 6,28%*
> 
> *5th constituency (Andorra,Spain,Portugal,Monaco)* ;
> 
> *1st : Samantha Cazebonne of La Réublique en Marche : More than 50%
> 2nd : François Ralle Andreoli of Let's act together,supported by the Unbowed France and the Greens : 15,52%
> 3rd : This constituency was held by the Socialist Arnaud Leroy,but he did not run. Gabrielle Siry of the Socialist Party : 8,13%*
> 
> *6th constituency (Switzerland and Lichtenstein)* ;
> 
> *1st : Joachim Son Forget of La République en Marche : 63,55%
> 2nd : Claudine Schmid of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 15,76%*
> 
> *7th constituency (Central Europe and Balkans)* ;
> 
> *1st : Frédéric Petit of La République en Marche : 54,03%
> 2nd : Pierre-Yves Le Borgn' of the Socialist Party (current MP for this constituency) : 13,88%
> 3rd : Philippe Gustin of the Republicans : 8,16%*
> 
> *8th constituency (Mediterranean (Italy,Cyprus,Turkey,Israel,Greece....) )* ;
> 
> *1st : Florence Drory of La République en Marche : 36,73%
> 2nd : Habib Meyer of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 35,51%
> 3rd : Benjamin Djiane of the Socialist Party : 2,13%*
> 
> *9th constituency (Magreb and Western Africa)* ;
> 
> *1st : Leila Aichi,independant : 20,29%
> 2nd : M’jid El Guerrab supported by La République en Marche : 18,93%*
> 
> *The current Socialist MP,Pouria Amirshahi,didn't run.*
> 
> *10th constituency (Middle East and Africa)* ;
> 
> *1st : Amal Amelia Lakrafi of La République en Marche : 60,08%
> 2nd : Alain Marsaud of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 18,89%*
> 
> *11th constituency (Eastern Europe,Asia,Pacific)* ;
> 
> *1st : Anne Genetet of La République en Marche : 54,11%
> 2nd : Thierry Mariani of the Republicans (current MP for this constituency) : 18,78%*
> 
> 
> Sorry for beign a bit long.



Does France mail the ballot to each overseas citizen from each embassy (at least each one that has registered with the embassy and/or election authority)? Or you have to go and line up and register each time? I think the former can help increase the turnout, its what Canada does.

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> Does France mail the ballot to each overseas citizen from each embassy (at least each one that has registered with the embassy and/or election authority)? Or you have to go and line up and register each time? I think the former can help increase the turnout, its what Canada does.



If you are registered on the register of French people living abroad,you are automatically registered on the consular lists. Then it's up to people to show up or not to the French embassies,consulates,or sometimes schools.

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## Vergennes

*Left, right rub shoulders as Macron's France eyes parliamentary vote*

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-battleground-evreux-idUSKBN18Y2Q9

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## Vergennes

*Here's what you need to know about the French parliamentary elections*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170609/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-french-parliamentary-elections

*Four reasons why the French parliamentary elections really matter*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170609/four-reasons-why-the-french-parliamentary-elections-matter

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## Vergennes

The current _Assemblée Nationale_.










The first round is tomorrow,while the second is on the 18th of june.


@LA se Karachi @Nilgiri

I really wonder if LREM can seriously win an absolute majority. They are polling ahead of all other parties at at least 30%. Seats projections give them as much as 427 seats. (289 needed for the majority)
That would be impressive considering it held no elections before and is only 1 year old.

There's one thing everyone can predict : The total collapse of the Social Party. Their performance could be even worse than the disaster of the 1993 legislative election.

The performance of the National Front will also be closely watched. They hope to win at least 15 seats to form a political group.

The Republicans and the UDI which hoped to get their revange after the defeat of their candidate during the presidential elections now are only hoping to limit the damages.

The Unbowed France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon hopes to gain the same momentum as during the presidential elections to gain a maximum of seats.

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## Vergennes

So,today is the day of vote. The polling stations will open at 8am (French hour) and close at 6pm. They will remain open til 8pm in big cities. Forecast should be made as usual at 8pm. 

The _Palais Bourbon_,seat of the French National Assembly. 577 MPs elected for five years.

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## Vergennes

The turnout rate for the first round of the Legislative election was *19,24%* at 12pm. It was *21,06%* at the same hour in 2012.


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## Vergennes

The turnout rate for the first round of the Legislative election was *40,75%* at 5pm,way lower than when it was *48,31%* at the same hour in 2012.







Very sad. The legislative elections are as important (if not more) as the presidential elections. The only thing I can say is that those that did not vote should not complain or cry two months later because of the policies adopted by the government of the majority. @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi


Anyway,the polling stations across the country will start to close in less than one hour. (6pm)
In big cities,polling stations will remain open til 8pm.

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## Vergennes

@Nilgiri @Philia @LA se Karachi 

The initial results for the first round of France's parliamentary elections point to a mammoth majority for President Emmanuel Macron's Republique en Marche party. 

Emmanuel Macron's new party was on course to win an overwhelming majority in parliament according to initial results on Sunday evening.

Macron party scored 32.2-32.9 percent in the first-round parliamentary vote, initial projections said, compared to 20.9 percent for the right wing Republicans party, 13. percent for Marine Le Pen's National Front, 11 percent for the far left France Unbowed (France Insoumise), led by Jean-Luc Melenchon and only 9 percent for France's Socialist party and its allies.

We won't know how many seats Republique en Marche will obtain until next Sunday's second round vote, but early projections by pollsters Elabe suggest Macron's could end up with as many as 445 seats in the 577 seat parliament.

That would easily break all previous records.
-
The Republicans and the UDI could end up with 95 to 132 seats.
-
The National Front could end up with only 2 to 5 seats.
-
The Unbowed France and the communist party could end up with 13 to 23 seats.
-
Socialist Party and their allies could end up with 15 to 25 seats.

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## LA se Karachi



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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> @Nilgiri @Philia @LA se Karachi
> 
> The initial results for the first round of France's parliamentary elections point to a mammoth majority for President Emmanuel Macron's Republique en Marche party.
> 
> Emmanuel Macron's new party was on course to win an overwhelming majority in parliament according to initial results on Sunday evening.
> 
> Macron party scored 32.2-32.9 percent in the first-round parliamentary vote, initial projections said, compared to 20.9 percent for the right wing Republicans party, 13. percent for Marine Le Pen's National Front, 11 percent for the far left France Unbowed (France Insoumise), led by Jean-Luc Melenchon and only 9 percent for France's Socialist party and its allies.
> 
> We won't know how many seats Republique en Marche will obtain until next Sunday's second round vote, but early projections by pollsters Elabe suggest Macron's could end up with as many as 445 seats in the 577 seat parliament.
> 
> That would easily break all previous records.
> -
> The Republicans and the UDI could end up with 95 to 132 seats.
> -
> The National Front could end up with only 2 to 5 seats.
> -
> The Unbowed France and the communist party could end up with 13 to 23 seats.
> -
> Socialist Party and their allies could end up with 15 to 25 seats.



Macron has no excuses now. If I don't see internal security situation improve in France, I withdraw my wait and see chance I gave him. If he does improve it, then I will be encouraged. This is the only major issue really for me regarding France.

Does France have a policy to monitor and possibly impound any of their Citizens clearly returning from say Syria, Libya and other terrorist-swamped warzones? UK royally messed this part up.

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> Macron has no excuses now. If I don't see internal security situation improve in France, I withdraw my wait and see chance I gave him. If he does improve it, then I will be encouraged. This is the only major issue really for me regarding France.



I agree with you. As for myself,I will also judge his work and the work of his government,not only on security (which is of course,a top priority),but also on employment,economy,health,ecology,education etc.

If Macron fails,even himself admitted it,it will only make the far right grow. The National Front has been defeated once again,but for how long ? Marine Le Pen was defeated yes,but she got an astonishing 10 millions votes,something the FN never achieved. This party is also very popular among a big part of the young voters.



> Does France have a policy to monitor and possibly impound any of their Citizens clearly returning from say Syria, Libya and other terrorist-swamped warzones? UK royally messed this part up.



That is becoming a big issue,indeed,especially when ISIS is losing grounds and many of their foreign fighters are deserting and trying to come back. They pose a high security threat. Firstly,France has sent special forces which main mission is to hunt the French citizens that are fighting in the Levant. The goal is to neutralize them so they don't come back. Secondly,those successfully coming back are currently put in detention,judged and jailed. They are also followed psychologically.

Macron has pledged to create special and separate prisons for those coming back from those zones.

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## Nilgiri

Vergennes said:


> but also on employment,economy,health,ecology,education etc.



Yah but France is more or less going to do quite well (even considering its a developed country) on these issues....whether its right, left or centre ideology running the show as the leader. (Because you still have to interact with people across the political aisle for common mandate and the bureaucracy are all interconnected)

The real weakness I see these days in the west in general is the internal security paradigm.



Vergennes said:


> Macron has pledged to create special and separate prisons for those coming back from those zones.



OK thats good. He has promised to take on board concerns of FN voters regarding these issues, so lets see! The Law and order needs to return to every corner of France. The "no go zones" need to end....because they will inevitably be sanctuaries for worst kind of anti-social elements.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> The turnout rate for the first round of the Legislative election was *40,75%* at 5pm,way lower than when it was *48,31%* at the same hour in 2012.
> 
> View attachment 402998
> 
> 
> 
> Very sad. The legislative elections are as important (if not more) as the presidential elections. The only thing I can say is that those that did not vote should not complain or cry two months later because of the policies adopted by the government of the majority. @Nilgiri @LA se Karachi
> 
> 
> Anyway,the polling stations across the country will start to close in less than one hour. (6pm)
> In big cities,polling stations will remain open til 8pm.




The turnout rate is unexpected. Quite a drop-off from the Presidential election.

Still, it's a big victory for _En Marche !_. The Republicans and Socialists got creamed, and the smaller parties don't have many seats at all.

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> The real weakness I see these days in the west in general is the internal security paradigm.
> 
> 
> 
> OK thats good. He has promised to take on board concerns of FN voters regarding these issues, so lets see! The Law and order needs to return to every corner of France. The "no go zones" need to end....because they will inevitably be sanctuaries for worst kind of anti-social elements.



True,we have been very tolerant,if not passive on some issues and not strong on others. For those no go zones,we totally have to review our policing plans and our ways of doings and improve the relations,build strong ties with the local populace,which is very bad or nearly inexistant in some areas..... Too much distrust among the populations,but also among Police ranks ...... The other thing is also to deal with social and economic problems of those areas and populations. We can't resolve one without the other.

Among the first actions of the Home Minister ;

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/france-takes-hardline-against-migrants.500817/

Wait&see.



LA se Karachi said:


> The turnout rate is unexpected. Quite a drop-off from the Presidential election.
> 
> Still, it's a big victory for _En Marche !_. The Republicans and Socialists got creamed, and the smaller parties don't have many seats at all.



Half of the registered voters didn't vote,there could be many reasons to it,and many are legitimate. But they can't expect change by not voting and letting others chosing for them...... As I said,those that don't vote,should not complain two month later.

Anyway,a great performance by Macron's party especially when it held no elections before and is only 1 year old. Especially defeating long and well established parties.

I love our political analysts BTW.

"Macron isn't going to run for presidency". He did.

"Macron is never going to win!". He did.

"He's never going to get a majority". He's about to get one. And a big one.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> The turnout rate is unexpected. Quite a drop-off from the Presidential election.
> 
> Still, it's a big victory for _En Marche !_. The Republicans and Socialists got creamed, and the smaller parties don't have many seats at all.



I would say massacred,literally. Especially the Socialists which could lose even more seats than during the catastrophe of 1993. Many candidates who have participated in the previous Socialist-led governments have been eliminated in the first round. Even the first secretary of the Socialist Party has been eliminated in the first round in his stronghold he held since 1997. Even Benoît Hamon,the Socialist candidate for the presidential election has been eliminated. 






@Nilgiri

Not adding that both parties are strongly divided,especially with those willing to support Macron.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Half of the registered voters didn't vote,there could be many reasons to it,and many are legitimate. But they can't expect change by not voting and letting others chosing for them...... As I said,those that don't vote,should not complain two month later.




Good point. Even if they didn't like the candidates their respective parties chose for the Presidency, they could have still shown up for the legislative election to voice their opinions. Instead, turnout for the Presidential election was fine, but very low for the legislative election.

@Taygibay



Vergennes said:


> "Macron isn't going to run for presidency". He did.
> 
> "Macron is never going to win!". He did.
> 
> "He's never going to get a majority". He's about to get one. And a big one.










Vergennes said:


> I would say massacred,literally. Especially the Socialists which could lose even more seats than during the catastrophe of 1993. Many candidates which have participated in the previous Socialist-led governments have been eliminated in the first round. Even the first secretary of the Socialist Party has been eliminated in the first round in his stronghold he held since 1997. Even Benoît Hamon,the Socialist candidate for the presidential election has been eliminated.




It seems that _En Marche !_ has cannibalized the Socialist's support, and quite a bit of Republican support as well. 








Vergennes said:


> Not adding that both parties are strongly divided,especially with those willing to support Macron.




Indeed, fissures have been exposed between those in The Republican and Socialist parties who are willing to support Macron's Presidency (probably a wise move, given his huge win in the Presidential election---as well the country's desire for change from the traditional two parties). Also, this is the _worst-ever_ result for the center-right in the history of the 5th Republic.

Another positive is the National Front's failure to win even 15 seats in the _Assemblée Nationale_.

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## mike2000 is back

Nilgiri said:


> Does France have a policy to monitor and possibly impound any of their Citizens clearly returning from say Syria, Libya and other terrorist-swamped warzones? UK royally messed this part up


True

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## Vergennes

*Le Pen's far-right surge runs out of steam in France's parliamentary elections*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170612/na...lection-upset-after-disappointing-first-round

*French Socialists suffer disastrous election results as heavyweights are wiped out*

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170612/fr...lection-results-as-heavyweights-are-wiped-out

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## LA se Karachi

*First Place:*







*Second Place:*






*Results by commune:*






_https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Overall_

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## Nilgiri

Do we have a map of turnout by commune or similar? I just want to see which areas are the most politically active right now.

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## LA se Karachi

Nilgiri said:


> Do we have a map of turnout by commune or similar? I just want to see which areas are the most politically active right now.









_
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017_

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## Vergennes

PM Philippe said he wasn't against the idea that part of the parliament's seats (10 or 20%...) should be earned proportionally to the % of votes.

How the _Assemblée Nationale_ is projected to look like with the current electoral system ;






If 10% of the seats were earned proprtionally ;






If 20% of the seats were earned proportionally ;






Now if all the seats were earned proportionally.






@Nilgiri @LA se Karachi

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## LA se Karachi

@Vergennes 

When will the run-off elections be held?

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> @Vergennes
> 
> When will the run-off elections be held?



This sunday !  
The official campaign will end tomorrow and we will head back to the polls on the 18th of june. As in the first round,polling stations will open at 8am and close at 6pm. They will remain open til 8pm in big cities. Forecast will be made as usual at 8pm.

The French living abroad and those in some overseas territories will vote on saturday.

4 candidates have already been elected in the first round. 2 are from LREM,1 is from UDI and one is from miscellaneous left (elected in an overseas territory).

The second round will see 572 two way contests and 1 three way contest.

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## Vergennes

The turnout rate for the second round of the legislative election was *17,75%* at 12pm. It was at *21,41%* in 2012 at the same hour.


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## Vergennes

The turnout rate for the second round of the Legislative election was *35,33%* at 5pm,way lower than when it was *46,42%* at the same hour in 2012.







The polling stations across the country will start to close in less than one hour (6pm),but will remain open til 8pm in big cities.

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## Vergennes

So the first forecast,majority is 289 seats ;

LREM + MoDem : 360 seats. (315 LREM - 45 MoDem)
LR + UDI + Miscellaneous right : 133 seats.
FN : 6 seats.
PS + Greens + Miscellaneous left + Radical Party of the Left : 46 seats.
Unbowed France + Communist party : 26 seats.
Others (Arise France,regionalists,extreme right... ) : 6 seats.

@LA se Karachi @Nilgiri

I am pretty happy with the result. Macron got the majority,but I was afraid that there couldn't be a sizeable opposition against him. There would have been a real problem of democracy if En Marche had totally free hands.

EDIT : Marine Le Pen is going to enter the parliament.

Abstention is historic and reached levels nowhere seen under the 5th Republic.

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## LA se Karachi

Yes, a huge win for _En Marche ! _I too was worried that there wouldn't be any real opposition after the seeing results of the first round. But fortunately, both the left and the right have a substantial amount of seats.


Macron:

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Yes, a huge win for _En Marche! _I too was worried that there wouldn't be any real opposition after the seeing results of the first round. But fortunately, both the left and the right have a substantial amount of seats.



Current number of seats (still counting)

LREM : 244
MoDem : 36
LR : 101
UDI : 16
Miscellaneous right : 6
FN : 8
Extreme right : 1
Regionalists : 5

Socialist Party : 27
French Communist Party : 9
Unbowed France : 7
Radical Party of the Left : 3
Greens : 1
Miscellaneous left : 11

Others : 2

Thanks to Bayrou's alliance with Macron,the MoDem is coming back to the _Palais Bourbon_ by the big door. (they had only 1 MP)

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> Current number of seats (still counting)
> 
> LREM : 244
> MoDem : 36
> LR : 101
> UDI : 16
> Miscellaneous right : 6
> FN : 8
> Extreme right : 1
> Regionalists : 5
> 
> Socialist Party : 27
> French Communist Party : 9
> Unbowed France : 7
> Radical Party of the Left : 3
> Greens : 1
> Miscellaneous left : 11
> 
> Others : 2
> 
> Thanks to Bayrou's alliance with Macron,the MoDem is coming back to the _Palais Bourbon_ by the big door. (they had only 1 MP)




Well, one thing's for sure. The composition of the _Assemblée Nationale _will be very different, next time it convenes.

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## Vergennes

Jean-Michel Fauvergue,chief of the RAID Police special unit from 2013 to 2017,who notably coordinated the assaults against the terrorists that recently struck France,has been elected with 67% as MP of the 8th constituency of Seine-et-Marne under the colors of LREM.






I am sure he will be a great asset,especially when it will come to questions of security.

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## LA se Karachi

It looks like the National Front will win fewer seats than the French Communist Party, and finish with a single digit total. Wow, quite a defeat for them. Even bigger than in the Presidential election.

Good to see both of these parties failing to get more than 20 seats combined.

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## Vergennes

LREM : 308
MoDem : 42
LR : 113
UDI : 18
Miscellaneous right : 6
FN : 8
Extreme right : 1
Regionalists : 5

Socialist Party : 29
French Communist Party : 10
Unbowed France : 17
Radical Party of the Left : 3
Greens : 1
Miscellaneous left : 12

Others : 4



LA se Karachi said:


> It looks like the National Front will win fewer seats than the French Communist Party, and finish with a single digit total. Wow, quite a defeat for them. Even bigger than in the Presidential election.
> 
> Good to see both of these parties failing to get more than 20 seats combined.



With 308 seats,Macron and LREM can easily rule alone. (majority is 289 seats.)
The President can now count on 350 MPs (including the 42 of the MoDem) to conduct his reforms and get his laws voted. Not adding of course those from other parties who might support the President.

LREM won an absolute majority despite being only 1 year old,very impressive. (+308)
The MoDem,thanks to its alliance with the President is making a big comeback to the parliament with 42 MPs. (+41)

The Socialist Party,down from more than 280 seats to 29 seats is decimated and made even worse results than the disaster of 1993. In fact the entire parliamentary left is decimated,331 seats to 44.

The parliamentary right (LR,UDI,Miscellaneous right,PCD...) is down from 229 to 137 seats but still remain the 1st opposition force.

The Unbowed France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 17 seats can now create their own parliamentary group.

The French Communist Party won 10 seats,up from 7,they might have regained their strongholds they lost to the Socialist Party in 2012,nothing very surprising here.

The National Front still won 8 seats up from 2,but didn't successfully reach their target of 15 seats,which could have allowed them to create a parliamentary group. But the electoral system of this election never favoured them,especially when the two rounds election is held at a local level and not on a national level. 

The FN is among the first asking for a fully proportional election system at a national level,obviously they would have won far more seats while the Communist Party for exemple would get probably none.

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## Vergennes

Socialist Party 2012 vs 2017. More than 280 constituencies to 29 today. Total obliteration. @Nilgiri @mike2000 is back @LA se Karachi @Philia

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## mike2000 is back

Vergennes said:


> View attachment 404810
> 
> 
> Socialist Party 2012 vs 2017. More than 280 constituencies to 29 today. Total obliteration. @Nilgiri @mike2000 is back @LA se Karachi @Philia
> 
> View attachment 404811


Surprisingly, seems socialism is dead in France while it has been reborn in U.K under the Cobynism mantra.













makes even Bernie Sanders look like a moderate.

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> With 308 seats,Macron and LREM can easily rule alone. (majority is 289 seats.)
> The President can now count on 350 MPs (including the 42 of the MoDem) to conduct his reforms and get his laws voted. Not adding of course those from other parties who might support the President.




Yup, Macron should have no problem getting things passed, even if some of his own party members defect from time to time.

Every other party received quite a drubbing.

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## Vergennes

LA se Karachi said:


> Yup, Macron should have no problem getting things passed, even if some of his own party members defect from time to time.



More than 400 MPs would have probably created a big mess and a challenge to discipline all the troops in my opinion.
I hope for all those LREM and MoDem MPs to show total loyalty to Macron and his government,in fact they owe everything to him.
-
Finally after various failed attempts to get elected as MP,Marine Le Pen is going to enter the _Palais Bourbon_. 
-
Government spokesman Christophe Castaner said Monday on RTL radio that Prime Minister Edouard Philippe would resign "in the coming hours" and a new government would be named in the coming days. It's a largely symbolic move required after legislative elections.

Since LREM won an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, Castaner said the government reshuffle would be "technical and not far-reaching."

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## LA se Karachi

Vergennes said:


> More than 400 MPs would have probably created a big mess and a challenge to discipline all the troops in my opinion.




I agree. It also would have been bad for democracy. Macron has a healthy majority, but not one so huge that dissenting voices will not be heard.



Vergennes said:


> I hope for all those LREM and MoDem MPs to show total loyalty to Macron and his government,in fact they owe everything to him.




Indeed, they do. It will also be interesting to see how many members of the other parties will vote with Macron as well. Some have already signaled that they will support him on many key issues.



Vergennes said:


> Finally after various failed attempts to get elected as MP,Marine Le Pen is going to enter the _Palais Bourbon_.




After so many defeats, she finally gets a victory, eh? There's a lot of turmoil in her party right now. She's on the "hot seat", as we like to say here in America. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the party as whole.

Just curious, will the National Front still accept EU money and miss votes?

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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi

The European parliament despite the rantings is a great source of funding for the National Front,like other similar European parties,especially because of its relative big presence. (Well it is the first French party)
The European elections allow parties like the FN to achieve a relative success when they totally fail at home. Why ? One round proportional election + endemic abstention.

Talking of the EU,the National Front is about to abandon the ideas of Frexit and to ditch the € for an hypothetical franc. Marine understood the fears around these issues and that French people didn't want that. Instead,they are only planning to re-negociate some treaties. A U-turn that could split the party.

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## mike2000 is back

Vergennes said:


> Workers' Struggle and New Anticapitalist Party : 1% (-1)


I never knew there was a party like this in France?

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## Nilgiri

Thanks for all the updates @Vergennes and @LA se Karachi 

Is @Taygibay active any more for his analysis? Also that louis guy (forgot his name) @Louiq XIV I think.

Also is Macron party more like coalition itself now (like say republicans in US) or it is more or less consolidated?

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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> Thanks for all the updates @Vergennes and @LA se Karachi
> 
> Is @Taygibay active any more for his analysis? Also that louis guy (forgot his name) @Louiq XIV I think.
> 
> Also is Macron party more like coalition itself now (like say republicans in US) or it is more or less consolidated?



There's the Presidential majority,LREM of Macron which is in an alliance with the MoDem of François Bayrou. Together they represent 350 seats. (308 for LREM and 42 for MoDem.) Now there could be MPs from other parties that could form a separate group from their own parties to support the Presidential majority,but not being in it necessarily. They said they would support Macron and his government and vote for most of their laws and reforms.

As for the government of PM Philippe,it's a melting pot of persons coming from the right,the centre,the left and coming from the civil society. PM is due to form a new government,should be revealed today or tomorrow.

@LA se Karachi you among others,thanks for following the campaign with me/us. Long months of campaigns,elections,primaries whatever,I am glad this is over. The next election is in 2019 for the European parliament,so we 've got enough of time to breath. 
Well,there's still the Senate elections in september,but senators are elected indirectly.

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## Vergennes

@LA se Karachi @Nilgiri



Vergennes said:


> Since Macron’s new party, Republic on the Move!, won an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, government spokesman Christophe Castaner said on RTL radio the government reshuffle would be “technical and not far-reaching.”



Lot of things happen in 48 hours ! What seemed like just a small and technical reshuffle will in fact be a big one. 4 ministers have already resigned (or have been ejected?) and will not be part of the next government !

François Bayrou : Minister of Justice (MoDem)
Sylvie Goulard : Defence Minister (MoDem)
Marielle de Sarnez : Minister for European Affairs (MoDem)
Richard Ferrand : Minister for the cohesion of territories (LREM)

All because of affairs.

We must note that the first three were the only ministers from the MoDem,we don't know yet if the alliance will be broken or not,or if other MoDem figures will enter the new government.

Anyway,Macron's party won an absolute majority so it didn't need the MoDem anymore,especially with all the suspicious affairs that were revealed against it and its boss. It would have only dragged down Macron,who vowed to clean-up French politics. 

Ironically,Bayrou,then justice minister planned a law to clean up French politics. 

New government is due to be announced before 6pm!.....

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## Vergennes

Now that Macron successfully destroyed and divided the left,he's doing the same with the right!

*French conservative lawmaker says forming splinter group in parliament*

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-politics-conservatives-idUKKBN19C19J

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## Taygibay

Nilgiri said:


> Does France have *a policy* to monitor and possibly impound any of their Citizens clearly returning from say Syria, Libya and other terrorist-swamped warzones?



Yes.





Nilgiri said:


> Is @Taygibay active any more?



Oh, yes!
I was unavailable due to work.

Talk to you all soon, Tay.

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## Nilgiri

Taygibay said:


> Yes.
> View attachment 410972​
> 
> 
> Oh, yes!
> I was unavailable due to work.
> 
> Talk to you all soon, Tay.



Yay! Hope you are well my friend.

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## Taygibay

*^^^*
*
*
Mouais, disons! A bit tired with still a lot on my plate
and projects to restart after 2 months of "all waking
hours on the job" save for WC breaks and food but
fine in general.

I'm glad to join back with you and the gang here of
course and after reading backlog threads tomorrow
and watching the défilé, we'll pick it up.

Thanx for the friendly hail, mate; see you in -24H, Tay.

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## Cell_DbZ

PUBLISHED 09:20 AUGUST 3, 2017
UPDATED 09:20 AUGUST 3, 2017
*Macron’s popularity rating drops to 33%, lowest ever for a French president*
By Dan Alexe
Contributing Editor, New Europe

Emmanuel Macron’s popularity dropped to 33% in July, the lowest rating for a French president two months into his term, down from 45 % a month before.

This is according to YouGov, in an opinion poll made for Le HuffPost and CNews and released today, in a sign that controversy over spending cuts and tax reform is taking a toll.

Only 33% of pollsters have a positive view of Macron’s action as president.





_(NBC News)_


Even Socialist Francois Hollande, who turned into France’s most unpopular president in modern history early in his mandate, still benefited from 55 % positive rating two months into his term.

Macron, who swept to power in May on promises of non-partisan rule and an end to traditional Left-versus-Right politics, has had a tough month, marked by a public row over military spending cuts with top armed forces chief General Pierre de Villiers that led to de Villiers’ resignation.

Other controversies linked to his tax and spending plans have also emerged.

Macron’s popularity rating remains higher than that of most French politicians, with only Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot ahead of him in Ipsos’ poll.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/ma...ops-to-33-lowest-ever-for-a-french-president/

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## Nilgiri

@Vergennes can you explain a bit what you think on the above?


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## Vergennes

Nilgiri said:


> @Vergennes can you explain a bit what you think on the above?



Lot of reasons for this popularity drop... such as the 'violent' row against the Armed Forces' chief,the decrease of housing aid,budget cuts.....

The fun is yet to come.

Wait for the Labour code reform (ay ay ay,God knows how this subject is very sensitive in France). 

I still support the President (not entirely like a sheep though),but I hope the major reforms can be passed. 

Even if his popularity drops to -4524%,at least he could brag (if he really does) about passing the very needed,but very unpopular,reforms our country needs,which other Presidents literally failed to do.

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## Taygibay

The more you promise, the more you'll disappoint on.

He promised to be a saviour, a perfect saviour and turn
France and the world into a Xanadu in a snow globe_*_ ...

anything less than perfection will sorely disappoint us?

Just sayin' Tay. 

_*_ _Warm snow, of course, according to then election frenzy!_

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## Vergennes

Taygibay said:


> The more you promise, the more you'll disappoint on.
> 
> He promised to be a saviour, a perfect saviour and turn
> France and the world into a Xanadu in a snow globe_*_ ...
> 
> anything less than perfection will sorely disappoint us?
> 
> Just sayin' Tay.
> 
> _*_ _Warm snow, of course, according to then election frenzy!_



T'façon on est jamais content nous les Français !

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## Taygibay

OT/ " ... sans compter les sujets de mécontentement." /TO

​Tay.

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