# Every Pakistani now owes over Rs115,000



## Dawood Ibrahim

PHOTO: FILE

KARACHI: Much talk has revolved around the narrative on Pakistan’s economy. The government would have you believe that it has been the best thing that happened to the country in a long time. It will cite international publications and foreign institutions when a positive report emerges from within the complex web of what is the country’s economic structure.

Here is some context.

Every Pakistani owes over Rs115,000 as the country’s pile of total debt and liabilities increased to Rs23.14 trillion by the end of December 31, 2016, a year-on-year increase of 10%, according to provisional figures updated by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

*In three years, Pakistan has taken on $25b in fresh loans*

The share of external debt and liabilities stood at Rs7.8 trillion, or roughly $74 billion, but the PML-N would tell you, as part of its effort to show it was a good government, that the total stock of debt – domestic and otherwise – has reduced to 69.1% of GDP from 71.1% a year ago.

But with an ever-increasing debt pile comes another problem for the country’s economic managers. Foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP have come down to $17 billion and the current account deficit has widened by 90% in the first seven months (Jul-Jan) of 2016-17, standing at $4.72 billion. Together with falling exports, near-stagnant remittances, repayments to international creditors and increasing oil prices, pressure on reserves is likely to be fiercer than it was before.

“Both government debt and, related to it, the government’s gross financing needs are high,” IMF Mission Chief Harald Finger told_ The Express Tribune_ in an emailed response.

“Under baseline assumptions, we project a gradual decline in the ratio of government debt to GDP through the medium term but this is subject to uncertainty, and adverse economic shocks could push the debt ratio higher.”

*Will Pakistan need another bailout?*

Critics say Pakistan, which completed the latest IMF programme in September 2016, will be in need of another bailout package near election time, slated to be held in the mid of 2018.

“Pakistan will need to go to the IMF for another bailout around election time – either right before it or right after it,” said Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, principal and Dean, School of Social Sciences and Humanities at the National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST), Islamabad.

“There is panic among the ranks. Reserves have fallen by $1.9 billion since October 2016 and the government’s financing requirements will increase in the near-term. The current account deficit is likely to hit the $7-8 billion mark this fiscal year and debt servicing requirements will add to the pressure on the country’s reserves.

“There are no more flows from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). Exports are falling and remittances are unlikely to compensate. They (government) will tell you that the import bill is rising because of CPEC-related machinery, but that is not the case. Imports under the food and auto vehicles category are rising, and this is because the rupee is strong, making imports cheaper.”

*The latest SBP decision*

Dr Ashfaque’s statement comes on the heels of SBP’s decision to impose 100% cash margin requirement on import of certain consumer items. In a statement released on Friday, the SBP said the “regulatory measure would, interalia, discourage the import of these items and would have nominal impact on the general public.”

The requirement of 100% cash margin has been prescribed on items such as motor vehicles (both CKDs and CBUs), mobile phones, cigarettes, jewelry, cosmetics, personal care, electrical & home appliances, arms & ammunitions etc.

*Pakistan’s way out of the debt crisis*

“The State Bank expects that this regulatory measure would help accommodate incremental import of growth-inducing capital goods.”

The last part of the SBP’s statement refers to those goods that will arrive as part of the CPEC initiative. But it also conveys the worry followers of the economy have over Pakistan’s balance of payments situation and the currency’s strength.

“The rupee has appreciated by 27% cumulatively over the past three years relative to trading partners in inflation-adjusted terms, which has certainly been among the factors affecting exports,” said IMF official Finger.

Dr Ashfaque says the key things to address are “senseless taxation measures” – which he believed were meant to appease the IMF – stuck refunds of exporters to show higher revenue and an uncompetitive exchange rate. “A stronger rupee means cheaper imports. By keeping the rupee’s strength, exporters are suffering as well. Pakistan’s borrowing needs will only increase from here on and by 2019-20, the stock of external debt will touch $110 billion.”

_Published in The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2017.

_
@LA se Karachi

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## HAIDER



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## MarcsPakistan

I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK ) 
Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul

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## Śakra

MarcsPakistan said:


> I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK )
> Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul



This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Modi. He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Modi does for Gujarat).

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## Asimzranger

Please dont compare to idiot modi thank you


Śakra said:


> This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Modi. He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Modi does for Gujarat).

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## s.k

Śakra said:


> This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Nawaz He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Nawaz does for Punjab).


I know that was Auto correct problem, anyways i have corrected for yu now please dont say Thanks

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## Stephen Cohen

Doordie said:


> “Pakistan will need to go to the IMF for another bailout around election time – either right before it or right after it,”



This is the most important part

https://pakwired.com/pakistan-piling-debt-leaving-little-room-for-development/


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## mdcp

Public is paying for the luxury of ruling elite. Shame

All stakeholders sharing on loot where as public is sleeping or trying to steal their pie as well.

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## Great Sachin

I thought Pakistan economy is booming

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## B@tt!eDoom

Asimz said:


> Please dont compare to idiot modi thank you


Exactly..Modi is busy fighting against black money holders..

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## haviZsultan

The weakness of the Pakistani economy under corrupt tola like Nawaz and Zardari can be proven by the fact that for 10 years we haven't exceeded 5% gdp growth rate. Our dismal growth rate in their years of rule has allowed India to surpass us economically when by gdp per capita standards we were better than them econimically. Terrorism too has drawn away investment.


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## Jinn Baba

MarcsPakistan said:


> I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK )
> Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul



Give Imran Khan a chance? What is this...a game? Where everyone gets a chance  chance he daina hai toh technocrat government set up karo!

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## Mo12

I am sure China can delay interest payments from Pakistan for 1-2 years while he solves its debt payment


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## Kamikaze Pilot

Jinn Baba said:


> Give Imran Khan a chance? What is this...a game? Where everyone gets a chance  chance he daina hai toh technocrat government set up karo!


It's musical chair.

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## Stephen Cohen

haviZsultan said:


> Our dismal growth rate in their years of rule has allowed India to surpass us economically when by gdp per capita standards we were better than them econimically.



We passed you way back in the year 2000 AD


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## WarFariX

haviZsultan said:


> The weakness of the Pakistani economy under corrupt tola like Nawaz and Zardari can be proven by the fact that for 10 years we haven't exceeded 5% gdp growth rate. Our dismal growth rate in their years of rule has allowed India to surpass us economically when by gdp per capita standards we were better than them econimically. Terrorism too has drawn away investment.


and then liberals say ke pak ki history mwin democracy ko time nai dia evil army waghera waghera....halanke army ke haat mein pak better hai...army zindabad



MarcsPakistan said:


> I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK )
> Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul


@Imran Khan apki bat hori yahan

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## PAK01

Śakra said:


> This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Modi. He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Modi does for Gujarat).



With Due Respect Sir......We dont have time to give any unprofessional un experience men...am too PTI Supporter But ... Now Pakistan is very better...Allhamdullillah


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## Imran Khan

MarvellousThunder@PDC said:


> and then liberals say ke pak ki history mwin democracy ko time nai dia evil army waghera waghera....halanke army ke haat mein pak better hai...army zindabad
> 
> 
> @Imran Khan apki bat hori yahan


pesy main phir bhi 1 ruppiya nhi doon ga .

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## PAK01

MarcsPakistan said:


> I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK )
> Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul




With Due Respect Sir......We dont have time to give any unprofessional un experience men...am too PTI Supporter But ... Now Pakistan is very better...Allhamdullillah

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## Talwar e Pakistan

Stop fear-mongering, this was expected for a developing country. Compared to other countries, our debt is stable and normal. I remember how people panicked over WB and IMF debts, but we made it through.

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## truthseer

MarvellousThunder@PDC said:


> and then liberals say ke pak ki history mwin democracy ko time nai dia evil army waghera waghera....halanke army ke haat mein pak better hai...army zindabad


With all due respect, Army is not equipped to run the economy. They are not trained to do so. Our politicians are terrible, but the answer isn't army, but to replace them with better people

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## Stephen Cohen

Talwar e Pakistan said:


> Stop fear-mongering, this was expected for a developing country. Compared to other countries, our debt is stable and normal. I remember how people panicked over WB and IMF debts, but we made it through.



National Debt is the total of External Debt and Internal Debt

Internal Debt is NOT a problem for ANY country

But external debt is a problem as it is repaid in US dollars

Pakistan's problem is external debt and the INABILITY to earn
enough Dollars for Debt repayments and imports

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## Imran Khan

truthseer said:


> With all due respect, Army is not equipped to run the economy. They are not trained to do so. Our politicians are terrible, but the answer isn't army, but to replace them with better people


i was hardcore marshal law supporter till i read history allot of books allot of dairies allot of disasters . now i will say even a worse every politician like zardari is better then ayoub khan .


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## truthseer

Imran Khan said:


> i was hardcore marshal law supporter till i read history allot of books allot of dairies allot of disasters . now i will say even a worse every politician like zardari is better then ayoub khan .


Man, I think you've gone way too far the other way if you think Zardari is better than anyone.

Regardless, I agree, army isn't trained to run a country, they're trained to defend it and they do a damned good job of it. Martial Law indirectly contributed to Bangladesh in a huge way, not because Army wanted something like this, but because Army can't deal with politics, it can't deal with economic and social issues because it's not trained to. Civilians are not like young officers you command, we can be very hard to deal with tbh


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## Sugarcane

Śakra said:


> This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Modi. He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Modi does for Gujarat).



Dude leaders like modi ji are not born daily, give him time, he will change the fate of Bharat by 2023.

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## Flash_Ninja

MarcsPakistan said:


> I think that this time the chance should be given to Imran Khan. I know that he got little experience but he might be better than Nawaz sharif (better example is KPK )
> Express your thoughts sir @Zarvan @Khafee @Windjammer @Devil Soul



Honestly there's a lot I disagree with PTI on, but I would rather have them in power than Nawaz, Zardari, or any other pro-corruption goons. We just need a party to come in and reform the electoral system, judiciary, and police force, and every other political party will end up falling in line and actually start developing policies.

Also, I think that Imran Khan as PM would be better for foreign relations as he will actually stand up for our country against the Americans, Indians, Afghans etc.

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## Imran Khan

truthseer said:


> Man, I think you've gone way too far the other way if you think Zardari is better than anyone.
> 
> Regardless, I agree, army isn't trained to run a country, they're trained to defend it and they do a damned good job of it. Martial Law indirectly contributed to Bangladesh in a huge way, not because Army wanted something like this, but because Army can't deal with politics, it can't deal with economic and social issues because it's not trained to. Civilians are not like young officers you command, we can be very hard to deal with tbh


give you a very small example ?
in islamabad few illegal mosques was demolished in 2007 . and lal masjid guys start protest . if it was political gov they may solve it with talks and no one even know what lal masjid is . but military men make it worse case ever . lal masjid is the hell hole which opened hell on pakistan . i did not support them but if this matter was been tackle carefully there was no hell in pakistan today .


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## Thəorətic Muslim

Asimz said:


> Please dont compare to idiot modi thank you



That "idiot" just got a invite to the US along with an entourage of hundreds of businessmen, university deans, government department directors.

While Sharif needs to ask for an invite for his daughter.



Talwar e Pakistan said:


> Stop fear-mongering, this was expected for a developing country.



How old is that map? The US is missing $11 Trillion.


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## Turingsage

Thəorətic Muslim said:


> How old is that map? The US is missing $11 Trillion.



2014 from a dubious source called creditloan


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## biloo700

Thank you Nawaz Sharif


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## Lil Mathew

Talwar e Pakistan said:


> Stop fear-mongering, this was expected for a developing country. Compared to other countries, our debt is stable and normal. I remember how people panicked over WB and IMF debts, but we made it through.


These types of maps will not give you clear picture.. You have to analyse the exact debt structure for correct understanding.. The soaring external debt & low forex reserves are the main problems of Pakistan.. Pakistan almost bankrupted in 2013 & IMF came to rescue.. Now the conditions are worsening.. Exports are declining.. Forex reserves are falling & Burden of CPEC loans are also coming..


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## MarcsPakistan

Śakra said:


> This guy Imran Khan is Pakistan's Modi. He will raid the national coffers to develop KPK (like Modi does for Gujarat).


Modi is of another level


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## shahbaz baig

i don't want nawaz or zadari but the fact is imran khan cant win election. because "Jaag Panjabi Jaag teri Pagri ko laga Dagh" and "Sindhi Ajraak Day" , people will still vote on behalf of language, their own benefits, and will ignore the ideology of One Nation. so Pakistani will remain unlucky (100% prediction having seen the past elections)

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## salarsikander

Accolades said:


> Nothing to worry about.After CPEC each Pakistani will own more than that.


In the meanwhile the desert monkeyr ruler strip the nationals of their country and vanish them.


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## SBD-3




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## Accolades

salarsikander said:


> In the meanwhile the desert monkeyr ruler strip the nationals of their country and vanish them.



I think you need to go through the data. I have seen people dying from Pakistan to come to the country ruled by desert monkey.


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## Bhupendra Singh_Cyan

HAIDER said:


>


Pakistan me Lamborghini :0


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## salarsikander

Accolades said:


> I think you need to go through the data. I have seen people dying from Pakistan to come to the country ruled by desert monkey.


Dying certainly not. Although you guys were dying and asked for security asiistance to quell in protestors


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## Musketeeer

haviZsultan said:


> The weakness of the Pakistani economy under corrupt tola like Nawaz and Zardari can be proven by the fact that for 10 years we haven't exceeded 5% gdp growth rate. Our dismal growth rate in their years of rule has allowed India to surpass us economically when by gdp per capita standards we were better than them econimically. Terrorism too has drawn away investment.



You are talking total irrelevant.
GDP went upto 4.8 and expected to reach 5.5 this year according to many international forums. in 2013, it was mere 2.8


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## Evora

Every Pakistani is under debt of Rs 115000/-. We should increase our population to double to bring this figure down to half.

Every Pakistani is under debt of Rs 115000/-. We should increase our population to double to bring this figure down to half.


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## Alternative

Stephen Cohen said:


> National Debt is the total of External Debt and Internal Debt
> 
> Internal Debt is NOT a problem for ANY country
> 
> But external debt is a problem as it is repaid in US dollars
> 
> Pakistan's problem is external debt and the INABILITY to earn
> enough Dollars for Debt repayments and imports



External debt of India is $486 Billion and with a population of 1.3 billion people per capita foreign loan is about $374:
In comparison, external debt of Pakistan is $73 Billion and with a population of about 190 Million per capita foreign liability is about $ 384; Figures are about 3 or 4 months old data.
So after decade of War and very poor performance on economic front and corruption, still not bad for a country bleeding dry for so many years.


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## proud_indian

very good program to understand the real picture of pakistani economy


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