# Pakistan's vast Shale Oil & Gas Reserves | Updates & Discussions



## RiazHaq

Pakistan has more shale oil than Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on June 13, 2013. 







The US EIA report estimates Pakistan's total shale oil reserves at 227 billion barrels of which 9.1 billion barrels are technically recoverable with today's technology. In addition, the latest report says Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas of which 105 trillion cubic feet (up from 51 trillion cubic feet reported in 2011) is technically recoverable with current technology.

The top ten countries by shale oil reserves include Russia (75 billion barrels), United States (58 billion barrels), China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels), Libya (26 billion barrels), Venezuela (13 billion barrels), Mexico (13 billion barrels), Pakistan (9.1 billion barrels), Canada (8.8 billion barrels) and Indonesia (8 billion barrels). 

Pakistan's current annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources could increase substantially in the future.






Source: US EIA Report 2013

As can be seen in the shale resource map, most of Pakistan's shale oil and gas resources are located in the lower Indus basin region, particularly in Ranikot and Sembar shale formations. 










Source: US EIA Report 2013

Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness. 




The availability of large domestic shale oil and gas expands the opportunity to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imports to overcome the current energy crisis and to fuel the industrial economy. But it'll only be possible with high priority given to investments in developing the energy sector of the country. 

Haq's Musings: US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels

Original Source:

EIA: Pakistan's Shale Oil & Gas reserves.

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## T90TankGuy

Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.


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## Kompromat

@RiazHaq

Sir are you able post the real sources too?


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## Skull and Bones

I have never seen him posting the real source of news, rather than his own blog post.


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## ejaz007

jbgt90 said:


> Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.



Can you name a few of these discoveries.


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## ejaz007

Relevant map:

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## T90TankGuy

ejaz007 said:


> Can you name a few of these discoveries.



search in pdf , they keep cropping up . recently one came up started by one of our Mods in 2008, people were still discussing it but no steps taken to extract it.
http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/38544-huge-coal-reserves-discovered-pakistan.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/258375-new-way-using-thir-coal-devised-pcsir.html
there are more . but i am in the office and dont have time to search.


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## ejaz007

jbgt90 said:


> search in pdf , they keep cropping up . recently one came up started by one of our Mods in 2008, people were still discussing it but no steps taken to extract it.
> http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/38544-huge-coal-reserves-discovered-pakistan.html
> http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/258375-new-way-using-thir-coal-devised-pcsir.html
> there are more . but i am in the office and dont have time to search.



This thread is about oil and gas and not coal. Why quote irrelevant topic.

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## T90TankGuy

ejaz007 said:


> This thread is about oil and gas and not coal. Why quote irrelevant topic.



I meant huge discoveries of natural reserves are found a lot , never exploited. refute that .


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## nomi007

jbgt90 said:


> Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.


sorry donot worry our leaders are not interested to explore them

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## ejaz007

Here is the link to the original source:

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf

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## ejaz007

jbgt90 said:


> I meant huge discoveries of natural reserves are found a lot , never exploited. refute that .



The work is continuing but at slow pace because of the involvement of government departments. Federal and provincial governments are both involved. When ever bureaucrats get involved in a project it is bound to get delayed.

Here is the government of Sindh department website link:

www.sindhcoal.gos.pk


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## Pakistanisage

Coal, Natural Gas, Shale Oil - We don't have dearth of energy resources. We just lack the will to make things happen. Hopefully we have turned the corner on that front.

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## Beerbal

nomi007 said:


> sorry donot worry *our leaders* are not interested to explore them





Or they are saving it for future.. I remember my childhood, I use to eat my chocolate while my younger brother save his choclate till we consume ours..  


By the way, I am thinking how India can drain out all Pakistani shale gas's' through Rajsthan...


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## PakPrinciples

> Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.



The result of corruption and/or incompetence.

There are those who want to keep importing oil and gas since they make a commission from their sale (same thing occurs in the US) and then there were previous governments who refused to raise the tax to GDP ratio to 17% which could have raised the funds necessary for these projects.

If Pakistan takes 4% of the GDP and invest it in a 6000 MW combined cycle natural gas plants (increase production from fields we're already producing from because the necessary infrastructure already exists to transport electricity) which can be constructed in as little as 20 months they meet the current electricity shortfall and future short term needs. Afterwards the economy goes back to growing at 8+% a year and they can raise the tax to GDP ratio to 18% (17% to meet the budget and the extra 1% to invest in future power generation to ensure the country never experiences another energy crisis).

However, if what I'm reading is correct, Nawaz does seem to be making some headway (though his tax increases appear to be targeting the poor and middle class a lot more than they are the wealthy).

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## PakPrinciples

> Sir are you able post the real sources too?


 @Skull and Bones He always has the official sources on his blog which is linked to his post.

Here is the link for the updated report from the US EIA he was referring to in his post
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf?zscb=75960731


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## Beerbal

What is the chances that these Shale gas siphoned out by India... I am sure God must have sharedpre some part in India as well.. The Gas is fluid form, by applying pressure we can shiphon all the gas.

Later we will sell same gas to Pakistan and make some money..


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## Argus Panoptes

Pakistanisage said:


> Coal, Natural Gas, Shale Oil - We don't have dearth of energy resources. We just lack the will to make things happen. *Hopefully we have turned the corner on that front.*



Sir, on what factors do you base such hope on? We seem to be going around in circles, not turning any corners as far as the evidence suggests, but perhaps you see what others do not.


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## Pakistanisage

Argus Panoptes said:


> Sir, on what factors do you base such hope on? We seem to be going around in circles, not turning any corners as far as the evidence suggests, but perhaps you see what others do not.





Look, Zardari wasted 5 years doing nothing except enjoying himself on borrowed money from IMF. He brought this country to it knees economically. give the new government a year or two before you condemn them. Nawaz Sharif has to deliver or he is history as well. But in all fairness there is no silver bullet here that will cure everything overnight.


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## Argus Panoptes

Pakistanisage said:


> Look, Zardari wasted 5 years doing nothing except enjoying himself on borrowed money from IMF. He brought this country to it knees economically. give the new government a year or two before you condemn them. Nawaz Sharif has to deliver or he is history as well. But in all fairness there is no silver bullet here that will cure everything overnight.



Sir, I am not condemning anybody. All I asked were the factors upon which you base your hopes that things will be different in the next five years compared to the last five, since the indications are that there will be no real changes for the better.


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## Kesang

@RiazHaq , Blog which you always post as source of your thread is your own blog?


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## DESERT FIGHTER

Kesang said:


> @RiazHaq , Blog which you always post as source of your thread is your own blog?



And the source has been posted before... again im posting it ... just for you:

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf?zscb=75960731


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## Kesang

DESERT FIGHTER said:


> And the source has been posted before... again im posting it ... just for you:
> 
> http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf?zscb=75960731



that was not my question. I wanted to ask that the blog " Haq's Musings " is his blog or not. Because i noticed that all his thread's source is that blog.


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> ...................
> Pakistan's current annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of *technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources* could increase substantially in the future...................



The complete report makes an important distinction between *technically recoverable* and *financially recoverable* shale oil and gas resources and lists the requisites for exploiting these deposits: private ownership of subsurface rights to provide incentives for exploitation, availability of subcontractors to provide the many areas of critical expertise needed, pre-existing gathering and pipeline structures and water resources needed for fracking. 

How many of these requisites will we be able to provide?

Just because the potential is there does not necessarily mean that we will be able to exploit it. Isn't that the typical story?

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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> The complete report makes an important distinction between *technically recoverable* and *financially recoverable* shale oil and gas resources and lists the requisites for exploiting these deposits: private ownership of subsurface rights to provide incentives for exploitation, availability of subcontractors to provide the many areas of critical expertise needed, pre-existing gathering and pipeline structures and water resources needed for fracking.
> 
> How many of these requisites will we be able to provide?
> 
> Just because the potential is there does not necessarily mean that we will be able to exploit it. Isn't that the typical story?



World's history tells us the following: What differentiates those who get something done from the naysayers is the "can do" attitude. 

The fact is that all obstacles can be overcome if developing domestic energy is important which it is for Pakistan's future.


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## Kompromat

@Argus Panoptes

Mostly its technological challenges in extracting shale gas and oil. If we can extract enough gas to fuel our economy for the next 20 years with current technology, it should be welcomed. Until then we may have a technology to do something about CSG at Thar too.


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## W.11

indians are jelly


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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

We should just go in 70-30% partnership with International Agency. At least something will be recovered from the Project 
If we waited for our PML(N) it may take another 60 years


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## RiazHaq

Pakistan's best interest is not in defying Saudis and Americans to buy expensive Iranian gas and end up with crippling sanctions which could be much worse than its current energy crisis.

Its best interests will be served by developing its own cheap domestic shale oil and gas on an accelerated schedule with Saudi investment and US tech know-how. 

If the Americans and the Saudis refuse to help, then Pakistan will have a stronger case to go with the Iran gas option. 

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Shale Gas With US & KSA Help?


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> World's history tells us the following: What differentiates those who get something done from the naysayers is* the "can do" attitude*.
> 
> The fact is that all obstacles can be overcome if developing domestic energy is important which it is for Pakistan's future.



The sad truth is that we do not have the "can do" attitude, but you are right that, if we did, we could solve our energy problems.



Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> Mostly its technological challenges in extracting shale gas and oil. If we can extract enough gas to fuel our economy for the next 20 years with current technology, it should be welcomed. Until then we may have a technology to do something about CSG at Thar too.



Actually, the technological challenges are the easy ones to solve. Our real problems with developing resources of this magnitude are related to financing and management with the associated corruption and incompetence.

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## ejaz007

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan's best interest is not in defying Saudis and Americans to buy expensive Iranian gas and end up with crippling sanctions which could be much worse than its current energy crisis.
> 
> Its best interests will be served by developing its own cheap domestic shale oil and gas on an accelerated schedule with Saudi investment and US tech know-how.
> 
> If the Americans and the Saudis refuse to help, then Pakistan will have a stronger case to go with the Iran gas option.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Shale Gas With US & KSA Help?



Discovering and producing shale oil and gas is not cheap compared to conventional oil and gas.

Also somewhat relevant to the topic remember the recently much talked about tight gas production that is going to commence for the first time in Pakistan. Pakistan has just recently announced tight gas policy and much talked about first tight gas production shall be commencing this June. It's selling price is much higher than conventional gas selling price.


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## RiazHaq

ejaz007 said:


> Discovering and producing shale oil and gas is not cheap compared to conventional oil and gas.
> 
> Also somewhat relevant to the topic remember the recently much talked about tight gas production that is going to commence for the first time in Pakistan. Pakistan has just recently announced tight gas policy and much talked about first tight gas production shall be commencing this June. It's selling price is much higher than conventional gas selling price.



The price agreed for domestic shale gas in the policy is less than half of the price Pak has agreed to pay for Iran gas. And Iran gas price is linked to oil price and it could rise substantially with oil prices in future. 

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Energy Security Via Shale Gas Revolution


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## amanwas

WE need sincere leader who really want to utilize all these resources available under our mother land Pakistan.


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## ejaz007

RiazHaq said:


> The price agreed for domestic shale gas in the policy is less than half of the price Pak has agreed to pay for Iran gas. And Iran gas price is linked to oil price and it could rise substantially with oil prices in future.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Energy Security Via Shale Gas Revolution



I am not aware Pakistan has a shale gas policy. Can you please share a link.

The price agreed for the IP gas pipeline is derived from an agreed formula. The people negotiating the contract from Pakistan's side should be asked why they agreed to this formula when alternate option was available i.e. TAP pipeline


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## tarrar

What we don't know is there are oil reserves in Karachi sea shores, some experts say it is the biggest in the world. So the internationals lobbies are not only stopping Reqo Diq, Kala Bagh Dam, Bhasha Dam, Thar Coal project, etc. they are also stopping Pakistan to use these sea oil reserves.

The enemies of Pakistan have their eyes set on Pakistan's Mineral & natural resources.


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## RiazHaq

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Energy Security Via Shale Gas Revolution

US natural gas prices have fallen below $2 per million BTU (approx 1000 cubic feet), about one-sixth of the price Pakistan has agreed to pay for Iranian gas. With over 100 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves (revised upwards by US EIA in 2013) in Sindh alone, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America. 

Increased production of gas from shale rock in the US has created a huge new supply, pushing down gas prices from $13/BTU (million British thermal units) four years ago to just $2/BTU today, even as the price of oil has more than doubled. By contrast, the Iran pipeline gas formula links the gas price to oil prices. It means that Pakistan will have to pay $12.30/BTU at oil price of $100/barrel, and a whopping $20/BTU for gas if oil returns to its 2008 peak of $150/barrel. 

To encourage investment in developing domestic shale gas, Pakistan has approved a new exploration policy with improved incentives as compared with its 2009 policy, a petroleum ministry official said recently. Pakistan Petroleum is now inviting fresh bids to auction licenses to explore and develop several blocks in Dera Ismail Khan (KPK), Badin (Sind), Naushero Firoz (Sind) and Jungshahi (Sind), according to Oil Voice.


In addition to the fact that the Iran gas is extremely expensive, the entire Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project raises other serious issues as well. 

Iran-Pakistan Pipeline Issues: 

1. Chinese investors and contractors have pulled out of the project for fear of being hit by US sanctions on their banks and other companies. 

2. Russia's Gazrom is reportedly interested but only if it gets the deal at whatever price it decides to charge without any competitive bidding.

3. Pakistani companies and financial institutions are also under threat of US sanctions if they participate in the project. 

4. If the pipeline does eventually get built, it will still be several years before gas starts to flow to Pakistan. 

5. If Iran is still under US sanctions when the Iranian gas imports finally begin, Pakistan will have difficulty paying for the gas using international banking system. Iran has already been suspended by SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which is the main mechanism used for international bank transactions. 

6. The largest chunk of Pakistan's trade deficit is accounted for by energy imports. Iranian gas bill will only worsen this deficit, contributing to yet another balance of payments crisis sending Pakistan back to IMF.



Advantages of Domestic Shale Gas Development:

1. Cheap domestic gas can start flowing from Pakistani shale in a couple of years if Pakistan can make a deal with US (and American pioneers of shale gas like George Mitchel's Devon Energy) to invest and execute on an accelerated schedule in exchange for dropping Iran pipeline. 

2. Pakistan will dramatically reduce its dependence on foreign sources and save a lot of foreign exchange spent on hydrocarbon imports.

3. Gas burns a lot cleaner than coal which is also a option given vast amounts of it in Thar desert. World Bank and other International financial institutions are more amenable to financing shale gas development than coal.

4. Abundant and cheap domestic gas supplies can help reduce electricity load-shedding which is caused mainly by under-utilization of installed generating capacity for lack of affordable fuel. 

Shale gas revolution began a few years ago when an American named George P. Mitchell defied the skeptics and fought his opponents to extract natural gas from shale rock. The method he and his team used to release the trapped gas, called fracking, has paid off dramatically. In 2000, shale gas represented just 1 percent of American natural gas supplies. Today, it is over 30 percent and rising.



Among the potential downsides of shale gas development is the possibility of groundwater contamination reported in some places in the United States. Such risks can be minimized by following accepted practices to protect the aquifers which are found at levels well above the deep shale rock fractured for extracting natural gas.

Cheap and abundant energy is a pre-requisite for rapid economic growth in any country. Pakistan is no exception. The sooner Pakistanis recognize and resolve this crisis, the better it will be for the south Asian nation.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Energy Security Via Shale Gas Revolution


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## RiazHaq

Here's a summary of a market research report on developing oil and gas resources in Asia Pacific, including Pakistan:

The new Asia Pacific shale gas report from OGANALYSIS noted that soaring demand, rapidly escalating LNG prices are forcing countries to look for possibility of shale gas production. In particular, China and India are witnessing rapid rise in demand and accordingly are planning to realize shale production earlier than planned. Australia is also planning to exploit its shale reserves to supply feed gas for its planned liquefaction terminals.

Success of the US shale and ongoing activities in Europe are encouraging Asian players to develop policy and frameworks for shale gas development. While China is allowing foreign companies to participate in shale exploration, India is planning to launch first bids in 2013. Over 10 companies are actively perusing shale operations in Australia and Pakistan and Bangladesh are in plans of identifying their reserve potential.

The report analyzes the current status, potential and feasibility of shale development, ongoing activities, government stance and companies operating in each of the key Asian shale markets including Australia, china, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The research work also identifies the top trends of Asia Pacific shale market. Key drivers and challenges faced by countries along with feasibility of first commercial production are also discussed in detail. Further, the Asia Pacific shale gas report from OGANALYSIS discusses physical characteristics of major basins in each country along with their reservoir properties and resource characteristics. Further, shale formations and key plays in each basin are discussed in detail. Basin wise company information along with the current status of activities in permits awarded is analyzed. In addition, company wise shale activities are provided for leading ten companies.

Read more here: Asia Pacific Shale Gas Market Prospects to 2025- Demand Growth and Escalating Gas Import Costs Force Asian Countries Drive Shale Investments - PR Newswire - The Sacramento Bee


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## RiazHaq

Here's an OilPrice editorial on oil and gas potential in FATA:

Pakistans Tribal Areas (FATA) and Frontier Regions (FR) are believed to have massive reserves of oil and natural gaswhich Pakistani officials have suddenly become very keen to demonstrate. But this is a highly restive, war-torn area where one right move could make all the difference, and one wrong move could ignite a conflict with irreversible consequences.

For now, the area remains unexplored and it was only in 2008 when Pakistani geologists began to study the area in earnest, with the support of the local authorities in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and the Frontier Region (FR). The results of this research were collected, processed and digitized in June 2012. The geologists discovered seven new oil and gas seepages during the mapping. The geologists also claim that 11 oil and gas exploration companies have already reserved 16 blocks in Fata.

The potential:

 Pakistani geologists say Fata in particular is poised to become a new oil state whose production could rival Dubais in only five years
 The FR is bursting at the seams with gas, so they say

Heres what the interest looks like so far:

 17 companies have initiated operations in Fata/FR (in Khyber, Orakzai, North and South Waziristan, Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Tank and DI Khan)
 Tullow has been active in Pakistan since 1991,

Tapping into Pakistan's Massive Oil and Gas Reserves

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## RiazHaq

There are some who argue that shale oil and gas extraction requires a lot of water. 

The fact is that shale gas extraction uses a lot less water than other forms of energy production and the water can be reused in producing more gas.

Here's a comparison:

One MMBtu, or 1 million British thermal units, a standard measurement for the energy content of fuels, was produced from these energy sources using the following amounts of water:

Deep shale natural gas 0.60-5.80 gallons

Nuclear (uranium ready to use in a power plant) 8-14 gallons

Conventional oil 8-20 gallons

Synfuel-coal gasification 11-26 gallons

Coal (ready to use in a power plant) 13-32 gallons

Oil shale 22-56 gallons

Tar sands/oil sands 27-68 gallons

Fuel ethanol from corn 2,510-29,100 gallons

Biodiesel from soy 14,000-75,000 gallons

Deep shale gas drilling uses least amount of water


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## Windjammer

*Pakistan&#8217;s latent wealth*







Sometimes good news, like lightning, strikes unexpectedly. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an agency of the US Government, has released a report which ranks Pakistan as the country with the ninth largest shale oil reserves in the world. Other countries listed in the top 10 by the report, which bears the weighty title &#8216;Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States&#8217; include Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Indonesia and the United States. The report estimates Pakistan&#8217;s technically recoverable shale oil reserves at 9 billion barrels. Compare this to our current proved oil reserves of approximately 300 million barrels and the extent of the good news &#8212; a 30 fold increase in reserves &#8212; becomes clear. 

But it may be a little too early to celebrate. Shale oil, as the term suggests, is oil trapped in a shale formation. Shale is a type of sedimentary rock composed of a mix of clays with small quantities of other minerals such as quartz and calcite. Geologists have always known that shales contain oil and gas. But the problem is that recovering these is not easy. This is because shale has what is called in oil industry jargon &#8212; low permeability. Simply put this means that even if you drill a well into a shale formation, oil will not flow into the well because it is tightly locked into the shale. Over the last 4 or 5 years however, new technologies have been perfected which allow cost efficient recovery of this formerly difficult to extract shale oil and gas. The first of these is &#8216;horizontal drilling&#8217;. The second is &#8216;hydraulic fracturing&#8217;. 

Conventional oil wells are drilled vertically into the ground. Shale formations, in for example the lower Indus Basin where most of Pakistan&#8217;s shale oil reserves are located, have a typical thickness of about 200 to 250 feet. So a vertical well would make contact with the formation for only this distance limiting the size of what is called the &#8216;producing zone&#8217;. A horizontal well starts off as vertical but as it penetrates deeper into the ground, new technology allows the driller to slowly incline it until by the time it reaches the formation, it has become completely horizontal. Once horizontal, it travels across the formation for several thousand feet, greatly increasing the size of the production zone. But a horizontal well alone will not get the shale to give up its oil. This is where hydraulic fracturing or fracking, as it is called, comes in. Once the horizontal well is in place a mixture of water and sand is injected into the formation at extremely high pressure. The pressure fractures or cracks the formation and the sand injected with water &#8216;props up&#8217; the cracks and prevents them from closing once the pressure is removed. 

The cracks now act as pathways for the locked oil or gas to flow into the well. And the length of the horizontal well means that enough of the stuff is able to get through to make the whole exercise cost efficient. While the EIA report is wonderful news for Pakistan, getting the shale oil out of the ground represents a technical, financial and organisational challenge. How should the government go about it? Horizontal drilling and fracking technology is currently almost the exclusive preserve of a few global &#8216;oil service&#8217; companies. They are expensive &#8212; too expensive for Pakistan. The good news is that a large cadre of highly capable Pakistanis work in the oil industry in the Middle East and further afield. 

Some of them, with typical Pakistani entrepreneurial spirit, have set up companies to compete with global oil service giants. And, make no mistake they are giving the giants a run for their money. We need to get these people back home and encourage them to do the same here. The government needs to develop a plan and strategy with clearly defined objectives to exploit what is an unexpected windfall from out of the blue. Pakistan produced, in 2011, some 63,000 barrels of oil per day on reserves estimated then to be about 300 million barrels. With shale oil included, reserves are up 30 fold. Apply the same production-to-reserve ratio to daily oil output and Pakistan could be producing almost 2 million barrels of oil a day. Imagine what that could do for our country. 

- See more at: Pakistan

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## Kompromat

This indeed is our ONLY chance to industrialize Pakistan. We must have a robust, industrialization strategy,endorsed as a 'core national interest,never to be interfered with any political party.'

Should Pakistan,get the maximum out of these reserves,as well as our gas reserves ONLY for domestic demand,we could save huge forex which can be used for economic development.

We must allow the American and Chinese firms to invest as well as our own small oil companies. Pakistan doesn't need an overnight miracle,to realize our potential. 

True,visionary leadership is required to turn this poor nuclear power into a proud member of the global top 10 economic club. This may well be our finest chance,to effectively fight the economic battle with India.

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## Kompromat

We need to learn to fend for ourselves and *Break the Begging bowl* ... With the begging hand chopped off. 

We need to stop begging our brotherly nations ie Saudis. A jobless brother with no coin in his jeans pocket,usually ends up getting kicked out of the house with an unshaven face!

This is our chance to Shine!

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## Chinese-Dragon

This is a big chance for Pakistan. 

Any and all spare cash that can be generated from this initiative should immediately be invested back into infrastructure, especially social infrastructure such as education and health.

There is a danger of falling into the "resource curse", whereby resource-rich nations don't spend the money wisely, and end up with most of the money in the hands of a few rich families, and the rest of the money spent to "bribe" the population with social welfare spending.

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## Windjammer

Aeronaut said:


> We need to learn to fend for ourselves and *Break the Begging bowl* ... With the begging hand chopped off.
> 
> We need to stop begging our brotherly nations ie Saudis. A jobless brother with no coin in his jeans pocket,usually ends up getting kicked out of the house with an unshaven face!
> 
> This is our chance to Shine!



As one Pakistani military analyst once put it, "Sanctions have actually proved a blessing in disguise for Pakistan, else rather than producing some of our own equipment, we may have still be using Korean era weapons" !!

If same can be applied with the likes of IMF, no doubt the tide will turn, regardless who is in the office, the recent power shortages should come as a wake up call and force the authorities to look into long term solutions rather than penny packets.

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## Kompromat

Chinese-Dragon said:


> This is a big chance for Pakistan.
> 
> Any and all spare cash that can be generated from this initiative should immediately be invested back into infrastructure, especially social infrastructure such as education and health.
> 
> There is a danger of falling into the "resource curse", whereby resource-rich nations don't spend the money wisely, and end up with most of the money in the hands of a few rich families, and the rest of the money spent to "bribe" the population with social welfare spending.



China being our closest friend not only has a genuine interest and stake in Pakistan's economic development but also in ensuring that the right economic trajectory is maintained through timely advice for course correction. Joining SCO and our corridor project will help us further engage China in our economic synchronization.

@Windjammer At today's price Pakistan's shale oil reserves are worth $864 Billion.

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## Windjammer

@Aeronaut, it's a sea of resources that just needs to be tapped into with will and dedication.

Check out this video how oil just seeps from the mountains.

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## Menace2Society

RiazHaq said:


> Here's an OilPrice editorial on oil and gas potential in FATA:
> 
> Pakistan&#8217;s Tribal Areas (FATA) and Frontier Regions (FR) are believed to have massive reserves of oil and natural gas&#8212;which Pakistani officials have suddenly become very keen to demonstrate. But this is a highly restive, war-torn area where one right move could make all the difference, and one wrong move could ignite a conflict with irreversible consequences.
> 
> For now, the area remains unexplored and it was only in 2008 when Pakistani geologists began to study the area in earnest, with the support of the local authorities in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and the Frontier Region (FR). The results of this research were collected, processed and digitized in June 2012. The geologists discovered seven new oil and gas seepages during the mapping. The geologists also claim that 11 oil and gas exploration companies have already reserved 16 blocks in Fata.
> 
> The potential:
> 
> &#8226; Pakistani geologists say Fata in particular is poised to become a &#8220;new oil state&#8221; whose production could rival Dubai&#8217;s in only five years
> &#8226; The FR is bursting at the seams with gas, so they say
> 
> Here&#8217;s what the interest looks like so far:
> 
> &#8226; 17 companies have initiated operations in Fata/FR (in Khyber, Orakzai, North and South Waziristan, Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Tank and DI Khan)
> &#8226; Tullow has been active in Pakistan since 1991,&#8230;
> 
> Tapping into Pakistan's Massive Oil and Gas Reserves



How accurate is this?


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> .............
> 
> The potential:
> 
> &#8226; Pakistani geologists say Fata in particular is poised to become a &#8220;new oil state&#8221; whose production could rival Dubai&#8217;s in only five years
> &#8226; The FR is bursting at the seams with gas, *so they say*
> 
> ...........
> Tapping into Pakistan's Massive Oil and Gas Reserves



So they say. New Oil State? Bursting at the seams?

More fiction.


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## Argus Panoptes

@Aeronaut This report has already been posted by Riaz Haq, and indicates "technically recoverable" reserves. The report also highlight the requirements for economical extraction, none of which are present in Pakistan. A dose of reality is needed before going all euphoric about breaking any bowls.

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## xyxmt

Aeronaut said:


> This indeed is our ONLY chance to industrialize Pakistan. We must have a robust, industrialization strategy,endorsed as a 'core national interest,never to be interfered with any political party.'
> 
> Should Pakistan,get the maximum out of these reserves,as well as our gas reserves ONLY for domestic demand,we could save huge forex which can be used for economic development.
> 
> We must allow the American and Chinese firms to invest as well as our own small oil companies. Pakistan doesn't need an overnight miracle,to realize our potential.
> 
> True,visionary leadership is required to turn this poor nuclear power into a proud member of the global top 10 economic club. This may well be our finest chance,to effectively fight the economic battle with India.



one cannot unless they master the technology to take it out, be it the mining gold and extracting shale oil, giving it to other will give you pennies on a dollar.

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## airmarshal

We need to learn to separate economy from politics. 

When Bhutto came, he reversed all of ayub's policies. Our downhill journey started in 1970s. And since then we have been going downhill. Its a shameful thing to admit that our country, 180 million strong, is like a beggar asking for a few billions of support from here or there. 

If Ayub's policies were to continue without political interference, i think we would at least have been a semi industrialized country. 

Most important thing to note now is that we must forget about producing energy from imported resources. We have to start find as many fuel resources within country as possible. For industrialization and stable economy, we need cheap energy production. Its also very important from national security point of view. A weak or developing nation cant depend on foreign fuels.


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## Skull and Bones

Excellent, now keep it inside the earth's crust as a fixed bank deposit.

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## navtrek

Aeronaut said:


> This indeed is our ONLY chance to industrialize Pakistan. We must have a robust, industrialization strategy,endorsed as a 'core national interest,never to be interfered with any political party.'
> 
> Should Pakistan,get the maximum out of these reserves,as well as our gas reserves ONLY for domestic demand,we could save huge forex which can be used for economic development.
> 
> We must allow the* American and Chinese firms to invest as well as our own small oil companies.* Pakistan doesn't need an overnight miracle,to realize our potential.
> 
> True,visionary leadership is required to turn this poor nuclear power into a proud member of the global top 10 economic club. This may well be our *finest chance,to effectively fight the economic battle with India.*



It would be far more wiser a move to even allow Indian oil companies as it would deepen economic cooperation and prevent future wars.

There is no economic battle between India and Pakistan as i know because we just refuse to increase trade ties.


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## SHAMK9

navtrek said:


> It would be far more wiser a move to even allow Indian oil companies as it would deepen economic cooperation and prevent future wars.
> 
> There is no economic battle between India and Pakistan as i know because we just refuse to increase trade ties.



No need for Bharat to get involved

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## naumananjum

God has gifted Pakistan with many such blessings
There are foreign interests in these blessings thats why these puppets governments closes their eyes on these facts

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## fatman17

does 9 billion barrels of potential shale oil reserves equal 8.64 trillion $...?

what is a barrel of oil today - $100 or so

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## Safriz

I rather have Pakistan invest in Thar coal than anything else at the moment...

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## Kompromat

@Argus Panoptes

'Technically recoverable with today's technology.'

No one is dreaming of an overnight miracle oil boom. Its our strategic asset and soon will be available as the technology progresses.


@fatman17 Today's price sir.

@niaz whats your opinion sir?

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## Gandhi G in da house

Aeronaut said:


> This indeed is our ONLY chance to industrialize Pakistan. We must have a robust, industrialization strategy,endorsed as a 'core national interest,never to be interfered with any political party.'
> 
> Should Pakistan,get the maximum out of these reserves,as well as our gas reserves ONLY for domestic demand,we could save huge forex which can be used for economic development.
> 
> We must allow the American and Chinese firms to invest as well as our own small oil companies. Pakistan doesn't need an overnight miracle,to realize our potential.
> 
> True,visionary leadership is required to turn this poor nuclear power into a proud member of the global top 10 economic club. *This may well be our finest chance,to effectively fight the economic battle with India.*



It was a great post until you wrote the bold part





.

You just had to add that ?


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## RiazHaq

Here's an Express Tribune piece on oil and gas prospects in FATA:

The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and Frontier Regions (FR) have enormous reserves of minerals, oil and natural gas that can augment economic activity in the war-torn areas, a research project concluded. 
Talking to The Express Tribune &#8216;Source Rock Mapping and Investigation of Hydrocarbon Potential (SRMIHP)&#8217; Project Coordinator Dr Fazal Rabi Khan said that exploration and excavation of oil and gas will introduce a new era of development and prosperity in the tribal areas.
&#8220;There can be many job opportunities created for people in the tribal belt if mineral exploration and extraction is pursued properly,&#8221; said Khan, who is also the chairman of the Geology Department in Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan (Palosa Campus).
The project was launched in 2008 under an agreement between the Fata Development Authority and National Centre of Excellence in Geology University of Peshawar. The project, which was completed at an estimated cost Rs40 million, was completed in June 2012.
Khan said that their objectives include identifying hydrocarbon generating rocks and its distribution in the region, preparing a geo-database regarding hydrocarbon potential and generating a systematic data to attract oil and gas companies for exploration.

The project has successfully collected, processed and digitised the data as a result of which, 80% of the project area has been mapped digitally. &#8220;This mapping has led to the discovery of seven new oil and gas seepages.&#8221;
He added that 11 oil and gas exploration companies have reserved 16 blocks in Fata, which go across from FR Peshawar and Kohat to Khyber, Orakzai, Bannu, Tank and up to North and South Waziristan.

He said that recently 17 oil and gas exploration companies initiated their operations in Khyber, Orakzai, North and South Waziristan agencies as well as in FR Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Tank and DI Khan.
Khan said that Mari Gas Company, HYCARBEX Inc, Oil and Gas Development Company, Tullow, Saif Energy, MOL Pakistan Oil and Gas, Orient Petroleum International, Pakistan Petroleum, ZHEN, ZAVER and others are currently working in Fata.
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) will start drilling in these areas for the exploration of oil and gas reservoirs. The chairman said that the foreign oil company, Tullow, has obtained a licence for the exploration of oil and gas in North Waziristan Agency and Bannu, while MOL has shown interest in Khyber Agency, Kohat and Peshawar.
&#8220;Although law and order problems can become a hindrance, the project can be managed considering its importance,&#8221; he added.....

FATA, FR regions abundant in oil, gas, says report &#8211; The Express Tribune

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## Chinese-Dragon

China also has quite a decent amount of Shale oil and gas too.

We have the 3rd largest Shale Oil reserves, and the 2nd largest Shale Gas reserves in the world.

Unconventional Resources | Unconventional Gas | Coalbed Methane

This is by "technically recoverable" standards. So we are going to be neck-deep in this business as well.

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## Kompromat

@ajpirzada

Mr Inhouse Economist, whats your view??

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## Kompromat

@nick_indian

I suggest you remove that stupid image and ask respectfully,if you really want an answer.
@Chinese-Dragon

There is a great potential for cooperation in this field. Pakistan is thought to be a hotspot for 'Geothermal energy' too. Maybe that can be an area of cooperation between us in the distant future.

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## Jade

Good for Pakistan. This may be a god sent opportunity for Pakistan to recover from the doldrums it is at present.


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## Argus Panoptes

Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> 'Technically recoverable with today's technology.'
> 
> No one is dreaming of an overnight miracle oil boom. Its our strategic asset and *soon will be available as the technology progresses.
> *
> 
> @fatman17 Today's price sir.
> 
> @niaz whats your opinion sir?



The issue is not technology. The requisites for exploiting these deposits are: private ownership of subsurface rights to provide incentives for exploitation, availability of subcontractors to provide the many areas of critical expertise needed, pre-existing gathering and pipeline structures and water resources needed for fracking.

Let me rephrase them: *Property rights*, availability of *sub-contractors*, collection and distribution *pipelines *and *water*. How many of these requisites will we be able to provide? How about 25 years from now?

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## Chinese-Dragon

Aeronaut said:


> @nick_indian
> 
> I suggest you remove that stupid image and ask respectfully,if you really want an answer.
> @Chinese-Dragon
> 
> There is a great potential for cooperation in this field. Pakistan is thought to be a hotspot for 'Geothermal energy' too. Maybe that can be an area of cooperation between us in the distant future.



Yes we are already being very pro-active in the field of Shale oil/gas, so there is a lot of scope for cooperation.

$8.64 trillion is no joke, that is more than the annual economic output of China (which was $8.3 trillion in 2012), or around 3 times the economic output of Germany.

We both need to be a lot more gung-ho in this matter, it could really help to fuel our respective national development policies.

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## ManuZ

Why cant u keep these kinda news secret...
Dont u guys learn anything from history...
Oil brings nothing but misery....


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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> The issue is not technology. The requisites for exploiting these deposits are: private ownership of subsurface rights to provide incentives for exploitation, availability of subcontractors to provide the many areas of critical expertise needed, pre-existing gathering and pipeline structures and water resources needed for fracking.
> 
> Let me rephrase them: *Property rights*, availability of *sub-contractors*, collection and distribution *pipelines *and *water*. How many of these requisites will we be able to provide? How about 25 years from now?



25 years from now may be too late...world might have move to alternative energy sources by then. Pakistan must act now.

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## Gandhi G in da house

Aeronaut said:


> @nick_indian
> 
> I suggest you remove that stupid image and ask respectfully,if you really want an answer.
> @Chinese-Dragon
> 
> There is a great potential for cooperation in this field. Pakistan is thought to be a hotspot for 'Geothermal energy' too. Maybe that can be an area of cooperation between us in the distant future.



It's a facepalm . I don't know what you find so disrespectful about that . Its in fairly common usage on the internet.

You may or may not give me the answer. That's up to you , respected Sir


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## RescueRanger

Amazing news until it got detailed. Surprise, surprise.

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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> 25 years from now may be too late...*world might have move to alternative energy sources by then*. Pakistan must act now.



Hydrocarbon based energy in its many forms will remain important for the foreseeable future, probably the next century. If we can be ready to exploit these resources in 25 years, it will be a great achievement. If we can be ready. If.



RescueRanger said:


> Amazing news until it got detailed. Surprise, surprise.



Details are the favorite hiding place of the devil, Sir.

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## Capt.Popeye

RescueRanger said:


> Amazing news until it got detailed. Surprise, surprise.



Now; that was pretty much the same story with Mr.Water-Car Engineer.

But being optimistic is never a a criminal activity. Even Aeronut is imbued very amply with that quality as can be seen here.

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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> Hydrocarbon based energy in its many forms will remain important for the foreseeable future, probably the next century. If we can be ready to exploit these resources in 25 years, it will be a great achievement. If we can be ready. If.
> 
> 
> 
> Details are the favorite hiding place of the devil, Sir.



I would disagree. Although Hydrocarbon based energy may remain one form of important energy resource for near future. It is going to find huge competition in alternative energy resources. With competition, the energy market will move towards being a market, where the supplier will loose the power to set energy prices,and buyer assuming more power over supplier.


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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> I would disagree. Although Hydrocarbon based energy may remain one form of important energy resource for near future. It is going to find huge competition in alternative energy resources. With competition, the energy market will move towards being a market, where the supplier will loose the power to set energy prices,and buyer assuming more power over supplier.



You are right that other types of energy sources will gain market share, but HC energy forms will remain overwhelmingly dominant in my view. I can respect your opinion without agreeing with it.

Besides, cheap, reliable energy and how it is used is what is important, not its particular forms.


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## Argus Panoptes

The KP Governor was given an update about plans to explore the area for oil and gas, that is all. The headline concluding "abundance" is wildly and typically incorrect.


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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> You are right that other types of energy sources will gain market share, but HC energy forms will remain overwhelmingly dominant in my view. I can respect your opinion without agreeing with it.
> 
> Besides, cheap, reliable energy and how it is used is what is important, not its particular forms.



The pace of investment that is going in alternative energy resource is unprecedented, mainly because of the global warming caused by the fossil fuels, and most countries have pledged or pledging to cut carbon emission in next 20years.

This is the tipping point for carbon based fuels. In future carbon based fuels may not be that attractive and may be discouraged by the governments by huge taxes (Similar to taxes on cigarettes )


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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> The pace of investment that is going in alternative energy resource is unprecedented, mainly because of the global warming caused by the fossil fuels, and most countries have pledged or pledging to cut carbon emission in next 20years.
> 
> This is the tipping point for carbon based fuels. In future carbon based fuels may not be that attractive.



The global warming train will be derailed pretty soon too, mark my words.


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## Rhino

. This may well be our finest chance,to effectively fight the economic battle with India.[/QUOTE]

Don't worry bro India will still be ahead with its 63 trillion cubic feet of shale gas......and we are already on the process of exploring it http://www.google.com/gwt/x?hl=en&u...sive-on-shale-gas-113053100028_1.html&q=Shale gas india&sa=X&ei=MWfMUb-aDMuErAf4t4HYBw&ved=0CDAQFjAF


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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> The global warming train will be derailed pretty soon too, mark my words.



Global warming will assume more and more importance. There are countries in the world that are going to be submerged in next 20 years, with that comes huge humanitarian crisis. Than there is also a great danger of decrease in crop production because of global warming as fertile lands around the world are slowly turning into deserts.

If not controlled, Global warming may well spell the end of human on this planet.


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## Chinese-Dragon

Rhino said:


> Don't worry bro India will still be ahead with its 63 trillion cubic feet of shale gas......and we are already on the process of exploring it http://www.google.com/gwt/x?hl=en&u...sive-on-shale-gas-113053100028_1.html&q=Shale gas india&sa=X&ei=MWfMUb-aDMuErAf4t4HYBw&ved=0CDAQFjAF



Strange, how come that isn't included in the list?

Unconventional Resources | Unconventional Gas | Coalbed Methane


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## navtrek

SHAMK9 said:


> No need for Bharat to get involved



Hope that not all Pakistanis think so


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## 888jamie888

You guys normally abuse the Arabs for relying on their oil reserves....
This method of extraction wrecks your environment as well.


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## Kompromat

Jade said:


> 25 years from now may be too late...world might have move to alternative energy sources by then. Pakistan must act now.



















Geothermal potential is est at 35000 Megawatts.








navtrek said:


> Hope that not all Pakistanis think so



Indian private enterprise should be welcomed to invest in Pakistan. It will build trust.



888jamie888 said:


> You guys normally abuse the Arabs for relying on their oil reserves....
> This method of extraction wrecks your environment as well.



Try living in Pakistan for just 48 hours these days without electricity.

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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> The KP Governor was given an update about plans to explore the area for oil and gas, that is all. The headline concluding "abundance" is wildly and typically incorrect.



I see it as a very encouraging sign. 

The first step toward any major new discoveries of mineral resources is always a geological survey and estimate. It's this work that entices exploration companies to drill and prove.

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## OrionHunter

That's good news. Now for the bad news....

It takes *two barrels of water to produce one barrel of oil shale liquid* (source: Argonne National Laboratory and RAND). And without cutting-edge water treatment technology, *the water discharge from oil shale refining will increase salinity in surrounding water, to unacceptable levels poisoning the local area. *

So then, to extract 9 billion barrels of shale oil, *you would need 18 billion barrels of water!!* And that is the hitch! But there's more bad news.....In addition to the environmental impacts of oil shale, and the huge requirement of clean water, *vast amounts of energy are required to support production. NRDC cites Rand Corporation estimates that generating 100,000 barrels of shale oil would require 1,200 megawatts of power&#8212;or the equivalent of a new power plant capable of serving a city of 500,000 people!! *

And then, shale oil production faces huge technical and environmental obstacles and is many times more expensive to extract compared to crude oil. Shale oil, has not yet been commercially developed even in the United States, *only shale gas,* because of the huge investments involved and technical aspects that have not been mastered so far. 

Considering this, it would be a decade or more for Pakistan to exploit its reserves, though extracting shale gas would be comparatively easier and the way forward. *Shale oil extraction would be financially unaffordable for Pakistan as the infrastructure required would be gargantuan. *

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## surya kiran

The objective is not just extraction. Its about the complete ecosystem.

1. Technology to pull out the gas
2. Storage facility
3. Transport facility

Then you need trained manpower to support the above and maintain the infrastructure. 

The above can be achieved, if you have a coherent strategy with relevance to shale. Who will drill? Who will transport? Are current power generation companies equipped to use the gas.

If a decision is taken today, you are looking at a 10 year time frame before it works. And this is being optimistic about this.


----------



## Al Bhatti

Pakistan is not going to be a semi industrial country let alone an industrialized or developed country. 

After the five years of this government and as long as same people come to power again and again in turns, come and read this post again and again.

No mention of citizen in the constitution

No gas for the majority of the citizens

No electricity for the majority of the citizens

No quality education for the majority of the citizens

No technical education for the elderly un-educated

No water for the majority of the citizens

No proper shelter for the majority of the citizens

People called Ayub a dog and he stepped down. The present politicians are called SOBs and their whole families are remembered by bad words openly but these politicians don't have any shame and their tongues pant on the news of elections and chairs just like a dog. They will sell their daughters and sons for some hours for the sake of chairs.

Pakistan will not start to move forward unless all the current faithful politicians leave the country for good or are killed, i did not use the word die as dieing a natural death will take time so the quickest way for Pakistan to be on track to becoming a developing country is by killing all the politicians through a bloody revolution. No change will come to Pakistan unless a bloody revolution takes place against these politicians because they won't leave or behave just like as a dog's tail cannot become straight even if it is kept in a flute for 100 years. These politicians again and again did their best and are doing their best to make sure their personal interests are always safeguarded and are superior and important than the national interests and the rights of the common man.

May Allah not help Pakistan. I say these words because these fit the mentality of the majority of Pakistanis. Allah helps those who help themselves but Pakistanis like to have same corrupt people again and again.


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## American Pakistani

Pakistan needs to act fast.


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## Johny D

nick_indian said:


> It was a great post until you wrote the bold part
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
> 
> You just had to add that ?



that is called as "jaat pe aa gaya" .....


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## Johny D

American Pakistani said:


> Pakistan needs to act fast.



Won&#8217;t make any difference how fast does pak act...time is not in Paks favour....to explore and develop this untapped reserves, you need huge capital investment, integrated infrastructure, stable govmt policies, safe social economic environment for foreign investors, advance tech know how..u have neither of these...no country in this would pour billions to develop untapped resources in Pak&#8230;.it is not at all a nartual choice to any country!


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## FaujHistorian

OrionHunter said:


> That's good news. Now for the bad news....
> 
> It takes *two barrels of water to produce one barrel of oil shale liquid* (source: Argonne National Laboratory and RAND). And without cutting-edge water treatment technology, *the water discharge from oil shale refining will increase salinity in surrounding water, to unacceptable levels poisoning the local area. *
> 
> So then, to extract 9 billion barrels of shale oil, *you would need 18 billion barrels of water!!*. And that is the hitch! But there's more bad news.....In addition to the environmental impacts of oil shale, and the huge requirement of clean water, *vast amounts of energy are required to support production. NRDC cites Rand Corporation estimates that generating 100,000 barrels of shale oil would require 1,200 megawatts of poweror the equivalent of a new power plant capable of serving a city of 500,000 people!! *
> 
> And then, shale oil production faces huge technical and environmental obstacles and is many times more expensive to extract compared to crude oil. Shale oil, has not yet been commercially developed even in the United States, *only shale gas,* because of the huge investments involved and technical aspects that have not been mastered so far.
> 
> Considering this, it would be a decade or more for Pakistan to exploit its reserves, though extracting shale gas would be comparatively easier and the way forward. *Shale oil extraction would be financially unaffordable for Pakistan as the infrastructure required would be gargantuan. *




Orion Ji,

Kiyon baatain kertay ho dil dukhanay ki. (Don't break the little hearts with this analysis).

Good job in explaining this. 



One of the things that I try to explain by fellow countrymen, is that we are in a chicken and egg situation. 


For all these major resources to be utilized rather "Quickly",

we need to attract Europeans and especially Americans who have the latest tech. 

In order to do so, we need to lower our ghussa our anger on everything American. 

Until we take a national class on "anger management", Americans are not coming (at least not the civilian variety).

And if American tech is not available, How on earth we are going to exploit shale gas, shale oil, Thar coal, gold, copper etc. etc. 


Some say Chinese will come instead of Americans. 


The problem is that Chinese will only go where Americans feel safe for investment. 

Chinese and Americans are linked via $trillion worth of trade. 

They will not jeopardize it in favor of few millions here and few millions there. 


peace

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## Al Bhatti

A country without natural resources + a capable leader (government) = a developed country

A country without natural resources + corrupt leader (government) = underdeveloped country or at most semi developing country

A country with natural resources + corrupt leader (government) = underdeveloped country or at most semi developing country

A country with natural resources + capable leader (government) = a developed country

So to become a semi industrialized country or a fast developing country is the most valuable resource of any country it's own citizens (180+ million Pakistanis) not enough to get a capable leader (government)?


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## Chinese-Dragon

FaujHistorian said:


> Some say Chinese will come instead of Americans.
> 
> 
> The problem is that Chinese will only go where Americans feel safe for investment.



Not true, Iran and North Korea being the most obvious examples.

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## RangerPK

navtrek said:


> It would be far more wiser a move to even allow Indian oil companies as it would deepen economic cooperation and prevent future wars.
> 
> There is no economic battle between India and Pakistan as i know because we just refuse to increase trade ties.



I think India should mind her own business and stay away from Pakistan. India is not trust worthy.

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## Johny D

RangerPK said:


> I think India should mind her own business and stay away from Pakistan. India is not trust worthy.



yes and Pakistan is not investment worthy...so sit on your coal and gas reserves and spend your whole life begging to other nations....

keep one thing in mind, you will never even see a developed Pakistan if u dont change your attitude and mindset....look at the indians in this forum, they immediately extended the support and started talking about cooperation in this sector...and u ppl started responding like u ve now $ 6 trillion reserved in your national bank...

to make $6 trillion, u will ve to pour in couple of trillions dollars....u know how much that amount is?

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## FaujHistorian

Chinese-Dragon said:


> Not true, Iran and North Korea being the most obvious examples.




Look I don't want to start this long discussion on China. 

Chinese are smart business people. 

I wish Pakistanis are as smart and hard working and as humble and as tourist friendly as Chinese people. 

as far Chinese investment is concerned. Sure they trade with Iran and NK, but the volume and contracts are no where comparable to the Western dominated countries. 


case in point. Iraq. 

Chinese have way more contracts in Iraq compared to iran. 

Same way Chinese trade volume with Japan and South Korea exceeds by huge amounts compared to NK. 


That's the point I was making here. 


peace

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## Hulk

I see such threads about trillion dollar coal/gas etc often. Yet you will see that nothing changes in that country for year's. If this is really true Pakistan should soon be like Saudi. We will see if that happens. Investment to drill the gas should not be an issue, 100's of company will do that for a trillion dollar asset.
However if that does no happen, consider estimates were blown out of proportion, maybe by fan boys or politicians.

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## Johny D

indianrabbit said:


> I see such threads about trillion dollar coal/gas etc often. Yet you will see that nothing changes in that country for year's. If this is really true Pakistan should soon be like Saudi. We will see if that happens. Investment to drill the gas should not be an issue, 100's of company will do that for a trillion dollar asset.
> However if that does no happen, consider estimates were blown out of proportion, maybe by fan boys or politicians.



issue is nobody is willing to invest big in Pak's mineral explorations...their all vedar ally China too is stll shying away from thar coal reserve!

So, all these trillion dollar reseve thing only sounds good in news but in reality pakistan has acute shortage of power and they literally have to import it from its arch rival India..! 

And here internet warriors see Indian as not trusth worthy and Indian companies should not be allowed to participate in explorations....lol

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## Edevelop

Please don't touch this resource now. First we need to create a climate where there is no corruption and no terrorism.


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## Albatross

JD_In said:


> keep one thing in mind, you will never even see a developed Pakistan if u dont change your attitude and mindset....look at the indians in this forum, they immediately extended the support and started talking about cooperation in this sector...



There is a lot that both Pakistan and India can get from each other and I guess india would get more by getting OIL,Gas pipeline links from Iran and central asia and rail,road links to export its goods to Iran , af'tan and CA saving india billions of dollar monthly in terms of transportation charges .
But unfortunately india's continued aggression in kashmir and denial of rights to kashmiries has brought our relations to a point where no one trust each other and same translates into rogue behavior from both sides even at this forum and at all levels of interactions . Indians fail to see what they can get by just solving kashmir dispute .

As far as your blabbering about pak is concerned well living standards in pak are still better than India and this chaos at home has seen its peak in 08-09 when we witnessed largest number of suicide attacks but is now on decline and once US withdraws in 2014 things are gonna get much better as Pakistan has changed its strategy towards Iran as well which is evident from IP project . Thus getting us Irani support in afghanistan as well along with pakhtoons will pave way for a pakistan favored state in afghanistan ensuring peace on our westeren borders .

No wonder why america wants a bigger role of India in af'tan as they are afraid if Pak , Iran and af'tan sit together all american puppets including india would be kicked out of that region .

So for us Pakistani's future is very promising if we can manage a GDP growth of 3-4 % in all these chaotic times managing something around 10-12% wont be a issue once this dust settles and I havnt mentioned yet china anad gwadar link so you better worry about how to feed the worlds largest hungry population which lives in india and how to build cheap toilets for your masses .


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> I see it as a very encouraging sign.
> 
> The *first step toward any major new discoveries of mineral resources is always a geological survey and estimate*. It's this work that entices exploration companies to drill and prove.



Oh I agree with that completely. I was just pointing vast gap between a presentation to the governor about the exploration program and the headline claiming that the region is "abundant in oil, gas, say experts" when in fact they have discovered nothing substantial, and are only embarking on a search.


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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> Global warming will assume more and more importance. There are countries in the world that are going to be submerged in next 20 years, with that comes huge humanitarian crisis. Than there is also a great danger of decrease in crop production because of global warming as fertile lands around the world are slowly turning into deserts.
> 
> If not controlled, Global warming may well spell the end of human on this planet.



NOTHING of the sort will happen. The models are hysterically WRONG. Submerged countries? No crops? End of humanity? Hahahaaaa! The planet has been far warmer before and will be warming and cooling on its own cycles for thousands of years. And humanity will adapt. Hint: How many times has the Sahara desert been an ocean before in Earth's history? It is the height of arrogance to think mankind will control the global climate.

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## Bobby

So now Pakistan is bigger economy than China

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## Chinese-Dragon

Bobby said:


> So now Pakistan is bigger economy than China



$8.3 trillion is our *annual* economic output.

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## RazorMC

Argus Panoptes said:


> NOTHING of the sort will happen. The models are hysterically WRONG. Submerged countries? No crops? End of humanity? Hahahaaaa! The planet has been far warmer before and will be warming and cooling on its own cycles for thousands of years. And humanity will adapt. Hint: How many times has the Sahara desert been an ocean before in Earth's history? It is the height of arrogance to think mankind will control the global climate.



I agree with this point. Global temperatures have been going up and down on their own, even before man stepped out of caves. But I also feel that the massive human population is something that the earth has never encountered before. Not be a neo-Malthusian, but the numbers are against earth's welfare.


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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> NOTHING of the sort will happen. The models are hysterically WRONG. Submerged countries? No crops? End of humanity? Hahahaaaa! The planet has been far warmer before and will be warming and cooling on its own cycles for thousands of years. And humanity will adapt. Hint: How many times has the Sahara desert been an ocean before in Earth's history? It is the height of arrogance to think mankind will control the global climate.



I have nothing to say....except laugh...


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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> I have nothing to say....except laugh...



Sure, please do, but what about my question: How many times has the Sahara desert been an ocean before in Earth's history, long before any "man made changes"?


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## Jade

Argus Panoptes said:


> Sure, please do, but what about my question: How many times has the Sahara desert been an ocean before in Earth's history, long before any "man made changes"?



I think the world is mad spending $250 Billion on combating climate changes in the last four years. They should have asked you, and, bingo, they would have saved a whopping $250 Billion with US alone saving a cool $ 100 billion.


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## Argus Panoptes

Jade said:


> I think the world is mad spending $250 Billion on combating climate changes in the last four years. They should have asked you, and, bingo, they would have saved a whopping $250 Billion with US alone saving a cool $ 100 billion.



No Sir, the real goal of spending that $250 billion is to keep the prices of energy supplies high enough to be a problem for developing countries like China and others, but not so high to cause too many problems for the developed economies, while keeping control of the energy markets. Nothing in international politics is what it appears to be, ever. Pretty crafty, if you ask me.


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## Kompromat

@Jade @Argus Panoptes

Gentlemen can we please quit talking about the climate change?

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## Kompromat

@Argus Panoptes 

Sir ji, if you were talking about "land entitlements", one answer to that is that the govt owns whatever lies "under a certain depth" of any land and can retain the right to access that resource. Given the current crisis, great sacrifices would have to be made.

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## Argus Panoptes

Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> Sir ji, if you were talking about "land entitlements", one answer to that is that the govt owns whatever lies "under a certain depth" of any land and can retain the right to access that resource. Given the current crisis, great sacrifices would have to be made.




The real point about entitlements is to create the proper incentives for exploration by providing the financial incentives necessary for people to come and invest, either by private ownership of mineral rights, or the governmental model you describe. Recall the legal issues between the Government of Baluchistan and foreign companies over Reko Diq and you can have an idea of what it will be like if large scale oil and gas deposits are discovered. Getting the proper environment for such large scale projects and investment is not easy.

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## MST

fatman17 said:


> does 9 billion barrels of potential shale oil reserves equal 8.64 trillion $...?
> 
> what is a barrel of oil today - $100 or so



I have the same question. A barrel of Brent Crude is $101 today.

So 9 billion x 101 = $901 Billion.

How come it became $8.64 Trillion 

Can someone please explain me this calculation?

Surprisingly the article posted by OP doesn't show this amazing number $8.64 Trillion.

*Is this some kind of Joke thread?* Or Am I missing something here? 

I am even more confused because 3.5 Billion Barrel of Oil fetches only 359 Billion dollars in Australia but 3 times more oil in Pakistan fetches 30 times more money 

Trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback - Telegraph

The OP has balantly changed the title from "Pakistan's Latent Wealth" to a magic number. And we have already 5 pages of discussion on it. How come no one answered Sir Fatman's question


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## Argus Panoptes

MST said:


> I have the same question. A barrel of Brent Crude is $101 today.
> 
> So 9 billion x 101 = $901 Billion.
> 
> How come it became $8.64 Trillion
> 
> Can someone please explain me this calculation?
> 
> Surprisingly the article posted by OP doesn't show this amazing number $8.64 Trillion.
> 
> *Is this some kind of Joke thread?* Or Am I missing something here?
> 
> I am even more confused because 3.5 Billion Barrel of Oil fetches only 359 Billion dollars in Australia but 3 times more oil in Pakistan fetches 30 times more money
> 
> Trillions of dollars worth of oil found in Australian outback - Telegraph
> 
> The OP has balantly changed the title from "Pakistan's Latent Wealth" to a magic number. And we have already 5 pages of discussion on it. How come no one answered Sir Fatman's question



The answer to your questions is called "Josh-e-Khitabat".

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## Coltsfan

Congratulations to the people of Pakistan for unearthing this immense natural treasure.

Upar wala jab deta hai to chappar phar ke deta hai! (When it rains, it pours)


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## navtrek

RangerPK said:


> I think India should mind her own business and stay away from Pakistan. India is not trust worthy.



Yar you know history very well and who is claiming of whom being trustworthy. Forget it no point discussing about it and derailing the thread.

I have no comments..


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## Argus Panoptes

@Aeronaut Can you correct the figure quoted in the title of the thread to "Pakistan's Shale Oil *estimated *to be worth *$900 billion*" please.


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## Kompromat

Argus Panoptes said:


> @Aeronaut Can you correct the figure quoted in the title of the thread to "Pakistan's Shale Oil *estimated *to be worth *$900 billion*" please.



Whats the issue with price, the projected price is around $95 a barrel multiplied with the projected extractable barrels of oil?


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## RescueRanger

Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> Sir ji, if you were talking about "land entitlements", one answer to that is that the govt owns whatever lies "under a certain depth" of any land and can retain the right to access that resource. Given the current crisis, great sacrifices would have to be made.



Sir as you have rightly pointed out, the government owns all the rights to any natural resources that are or may be discovered in private property. I am not to sure about the exact workings of mineral rights in Pakistan but i think after a certain depth it becomes property of the state. 

Any legal eagles in the house?

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## Argus Panoptes

Aeronaut said:


> Whats the issue with price, the projected price is around $95 a barrel multiplied with the projected extractable barrels of oil?



95 dollars per barrel times the estimated 9 billion barrels as mentioned in the OP is about $855 billion, add a few billions more for good luck, and we are still at $900 billion, not the 8 TRILLION was mentioned in the original title. BTW thank you for correcting it.

Such fantastic and impossible claims only make us all look stupid and therefore should be corrected as much as is possible.



RescueRanger said:


> Sir as you have rightly pointed out, the government owns all the rights to any natural resources that are or may be discovered in private property. I am not to sure about the exact workings of mineral rights in Pakistan but i think after a certain depth it becomes property of the state.
> 
> Any legal eagles in the house?



No matter who the owner is, the point is that there has to be sharing to make it worth the while of those wanting to invest capital and technology to extract the reserves. Can we offer such sharing?

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## RescueRanger

Argus Panoptes said:


> Can we offer such sharing?



Don't ask me last time i checked i still work for a living.


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## Kompromat

@Argus Panoptes

At current rate of oil consumption, how much forex we can save bu utilizing these deposits?

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## RiazHaq

Here are details of PPL-Orion off-shore drilling deal in Pakistan:

Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Orion Energy have signed an agreement for undertaking a joint study on the prospects of offshore exploration and will invest millions of dollars in drilling and set up a power plant that will receive gas from Kandhkot gas field.PPL Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Asim Murtaza and Orion Energy CEO andDirector David M Thomas signed documents here on Friday.

British High Commissioner to Pakistan Adam Thomson and Pakistan Britain Trade and Investment Forum Executive Director Nadim Khan were also present on the occasion.PPL and Orion Energy, headquartered in Singapore with a representative office in the UK, have planned to conduct the study in Indus and Makran offshore areas to determine the hydrocarbon potential there.

They will constitute different teams and earmark resources for the study, which is expected to take around four months. Following the identification of prospective areas, further exploration may get under way.Later, technological partners may be brought in for state-of-the-art data acquisition, processing and identification of potential structures and reservoirs. Subsequent to the study, further exploration and production may require investments of around $100 million.

According to a statement, they will also form a special purpose company for establishing a 20 to 25-megawatt power plant and the capacity will be enhanced to 250MW.In his welcome address, British High Commissioner Adam Thomson said, &#8220;Today&#8217;s signing is another step towards the UK and Pakistan&#8217;s ambitious, joint trade and investment targets. This is a clear signal from UK companies of their wish to do business in Pakistan with Pakistani partners in the energy sector.&#8221;

He said investment by any UK company in Pakistan&#8217;s energy sector had great importance to the British government. &#8220;Two years ago, the prime minister of Pakistan and the British premier mutually agreed to bring the volume of investment and trade to around $2.5 billion by 2015,&#8221; he said.
Thomson was of the view that both the countries were following the right track of cooperation and they could do and should exceed the set investment target because both were natural business partners and were already working together in almost every sector of the economy.
In Europe, he said, British companies were leading in supplying energy technology, both in traditional and alternative energy.

Talking briefly about his company, PPL MD Asim Murtaza said PPL was a frontline player in Pakistan&#8217;s energy sector with 71% government shareholding in the company. It produces 186,000 barrels of oil per day and covers 24% of energy needs of the country.According to Murtaza, so far 17 offshore exploration attempts have failed, discouraging exploration companies, but the PPL-Orion initiative has revived hopes.About exploration work in Makran region, he said geology of the region was very complex, requiring the use of state-of-the-art technology, which Orion Energy has. At a later stage, exploration activities in Makran will be extended to Indus Delta.Murtaza said Kandhkot gas field could supply 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of gas, but Guddu power plant was receiving only 100 mmcfd.

Joint venture: PPL, Orion Energy to invest $100m in offshore drilling &#8211; The Express Tribune

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## Kompromat

@MST

My Indian friend, Australian newspapers calculated 'Total shale oil deposits including non recoverable' which amounts to those 'trillions' of dollars.

Australia's 'actually recoverable' deposits are 17BBL less than Libya's.

Almost 80% of Pakistani territory has been identified as a 'shale basin' with Full KPK,Gilgit baltistan, and Balochistan's some large areas which haven't been assessed yet. 

They represent Pakistan 'major' seismic zones,yet to be discovered. Moreover Australian reserves are located in the middle of S.Australia. A barren wasteland with ZERO access to the most critical element needed for shale extraction...'abundant water'.

Pakistan on the other hand my Indian friend has its Shale reserves lying within Kms to, Arabian sea, Indus,Jehlum,Chenab, rivers with the 2nd largest canal water distribution system on earth,making our extraction and transportation more viable. 








This reserve is not going to make us a wealthy country but it is our best chance for full industrialization of our semi industrial economy.

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## Argus Panoptes

Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> At current rate of oil consumption, how much forex we can save bu utilizing these deposits?



In rough terms, about one-third of our import bill is for oil, about $15 billion per year. It is a huge drain on our forex reserves. If we can save even half of this amount by utilizing internal resources, it would be a great boost for the economy.

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## muse

*



He said investment by any UK company in Pakistan&#8217;s energy sector had great importance to the British government

Click to expand...

*

They are already telling you what to expect - so you know whats going to come your way, don't cry afterwards

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## surya kiran

Aeronaut said:


> @MST
> Pakistan on the other hand my Indian friend has its Shale reserves lying within Kms to, Arabian sea, Indus,Jehlum,Chenab, rivers with the 2nd largest canal water distribution system on earth,making our extraction and transportation more viable.
> 
> This reserve is not going to make us a wealthy country but it is our best chance for full industrialization of our semi industrial economy.



Yes, extraction is the first part. Then there has to be a facility which will convert it into utilisable energy. Which is what @RiazHaq saabs post seems to mention. it will definitely reduce burden during emergencies, but will take some time to be fully achievable, say a decade or so to be able to deliver good results. 

Also, from whatever I have heard him speak, it seems there is surplus capacity in Pak, hence, its not the number of units generating power, but, the gas/fuel to generate the same. This stems not from changing gas/fuel which is the source for the generation unit, but in addressing the issue of making the fuel available. 

Else, what happens is you have one more type of capacity which was built and there is no money to pay the generating unit for the fuel, which today is the problem? Then one will talk about nationalisation of the power sector.



Argus Panoptes said:


> In rough terms, about one-third of our import bill is for oil, about $15 billion per year. It is a huge drain on our forex reserves. If we can save even half of this amount by utilizing internal resources, it would be a great boost for the economy.



This will not be economicall feasible. cause, then what happens to existing plants? They have generation capacity right? Shale will be an additional increase, if it happens. it cannot replace generation from the other plants. This is a systemic cyclical problem. Believe me, the effect of forex will be miniscule, considering Pak will start growing its industrial base over the next 5 years.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> In rough terms, about one-third of our import bill is for oil, about $15 billion per year. It is a huge drain on our forex reserves. If we can save even half of this amount by utilizing internal resources, it would be a great boost for the economy.



I think Pakistanis have to think long term and have and execute a comprehensive national energy policy to ensure a better future. 

Energy consumption in this day and age generally indicates a nation's level of industrialization, productivity and standards of living. Going by this yardstick, Pakistan's 14 million BTUs per capita consumption in 2009 indicates that the country has a long way to go to achieve levels comparable with the world average productivity signified by 71 million BTUs per capita as estimated by US Energy Information Administration for 2009. 

Although Pakistan's 14 million BTUs per capita energy use is ahead of Bangladesh's 6 million BTUs and Sri Lanka's 10 million BTUs, it is less than India's 18 million BTUs, and far behind China's 68 million BTUs and Malaysia's 97 million BTUs.

Instead of addressing different pieces of the energy puzzle in an ad hoc fashion under multiple ministries and bureaucracies fighting turf battles, Pakistani policy makers need to look at the big picture for the sake of the nation's future. Nothing short of a holistic approach with a comprehensive energy policy formulated and implemented under a competent and powerful energy czar will do.

Haq's Musings: Comprehensive Energy Policy For Pakistan's Future

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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> I think Pakistanis have to *think long term* and have and *execute a comprehensive national energy policy* to ensure a better future. ...............



I agree, but the chances of both of those things happening are not bright at all. We will continue to lurch from one short term ad hoc knee jerk reaction to the next, hobbling our future as we fall further and further behind other nations.

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## ajpirzada

Aeronaut said:


> @ajpirzada
> 
> Mr Inhouse Economist, whats your view??



my view is to do with its financial viability.. shale gas technology is costly and i am not sure when exactly will we be in a position to invest (or attract investment) enough so as to utilize this resource. if we think about it, its taking us years to develop and exploit thar coal reserves. for now that is probably the best source of energy available to us, given our weak economic state. 

now coming towards the ideological debate, the biggest hindrance (in my view) to our energy sector is the government setting the price. regulation and setting the market prices are two very difference things.. regulation means that you do not allow the private sector participants to collude (or becoming a monopoly) when setting the prices hence keeping the overall environment competitive. it is highly inefficient economically and islamicaly unjustifiable to dictate prices to market participants. how does the government know what price to charge? and it is most likely that the market will not clear at these dictated prices thus leaving you with either surpluses or shortages. and in our case it is the shortages.

the kind of investment which is required in today's world is huge and can hardly be undertaken a government in any developing country. the best way is the let the private sector take its course while the government regulates the market behavior.

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## RiazHaq

ajpirzada said:


> my view is to do with its financial viability.. shale gas technology is costly and i am not sure when exactly will we be in a position to invest (or attract investment) enough so as to utilize this resource. if we think about it, its taking us years to develop and exploit thar coal reserves. for now that is probably the best source of energy available to us, given our weak economic state.
> 
> now coming towards the ideological debate, the biggest hindrance (in my view) to our energy sector is the government setting the price. regulation and setting the market prices are two very difference things.. regulation means that you do not allow the private sector participants to collude (or becoming a monopoly) when setting the prices hence keeping the overall environment competitive. it is highly inefficient economically and islamicaly unjustifiable to dictate prices to market participants. how does the government know what price to charge? and it is most likely that the market will not clear at these dictated prices thus leaving you with either surpluses or shortages. and in our case it is the shortages.
> 
> the kind of investment which is required in today's world is huge and can hardly be undertaken a government in any developing country. the best way is the let the private sector take its course while the government regulates the market behavior.



Shale gas revolution began a few years ago when an American named George P. Mitchell defied the skeptics and fought his opponents to extract natural gas from shale rock. The method he and his team used to release the trapped gas, called fracking, has paid off dramatically. In 2000, shale gas represented just 1 percent of American natural gas supplies. Today, it is over 30 percent and rising.






US natural gas prices have fallen below $2 per million BTU (approx 1000 cubic feet), about one-sixth of the price Pakistan has agreed to pay for Iranian gas. With over 50 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves in Sindh alone and over 100 TCF in the country, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America. 

To encourage investment in developing domestic shale gas, Pakistan has approved a new exploration policy with improved incentives as compared with its 2009 policy, a petroleum ministry official said recently. Pakistan Petroleum is now inviting fresh bids to auction licenses to explore and develop several blocks in Dera Ismail Khan (KPK), Badin (Sind), Naushero Firoz (Sind) and Jungshahi (Sind), according to Oil Voice.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Energy Security Via Shale Gas Revolution

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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> ..................
> US natural gas prices have fallen below $2 per million BTU (approx 1000 cubic feet),* about one-sixth of the price Pakistan has agreed to pay for Iranian gas. With over 50 trillion cubic feet of known shale gas reserves in Sindh alone and over 100 TCF in the country*, Pakistanis can also enjoy the benefits of cheap and abundant source of energy for decades via the shale gas revolution already sweeping America...................



So why are our officials so keen to proclaim their support for the IP project? Can we afford Iranian gas at those prices? Or is it because our shale gas reserves are wildly overestimated?


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## ziaulislam

Argus Panoptes said:


> So why are our officials so keen to proclaim their support for the IP project? Can we afford Iranian gas at those prices? Or is it because our shale gas reserves are wildly overestimated?



problem is who is going to invest in shale gas...PPL,OGDCL dont have technology and neither resources..
shale gas is less attrative because of lesser return..until now the return promised was very low, not anymore but law and order situation isnt bright..

shale gas can only be available if OGDCL/PPL do a joint venture with foreign firms problem is that they are already cash stripped because the govt owns them!..the circular debt has made it even worse


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## Argus Panoptes

ziaulislam said:


> problem is who is going to invest in shale gas...PPL,OGDCL dont have technology and neither resources..
> shale gas is less attrative because of lesser return..until now the return promised was very low, not anymore but law and order situation isnt bright..
> 
> shale gas can only be available if OGDCL/PPL do a joint venture with foreign firms problem is that they are already cash stripped because the govt owns them!..the circular debt has made it even worse



The basic point is that we have no money to generate the power that we need using existing or new resources.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> So why are our officials so keen to proclaim their support for the IP project? Can we afford Iranian gas at those prices? Or is it because our shale gas reserves are wildly overestimated?



You should ask them this question. 

As to the shale oil and gas estimates, there's no reason for US EIA professionals to exaggerate data for Pakistan. 

The current power load-shedding crisis has its origins in bad agreements signed with IPPs in 1990. It shows that Pak govt officials in charge of energy either lack wisdom and foresight in their decision making, or they are just too incompetent and corrupt to think of the country's needs.

After 1990s deals signed by the PPP govt and endorsed by PML(N), the IPPs built oil-powered inefficient plants because of their low construction costs and short lead times, and the oil price has skyrocketed since these plants were built in 1990s. The result is 18-20 hours of load shedding across most of Pakistan in the scorching summer heat in spite of the fact the taxpayers have shelled out over $14 billions in subsidies to the power sector since 2008.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Suffer Load-shedding While Power Companies' Profits Surge


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## UKBengali

Aeronaut said:


> @Argus Panoptes
> 
> At current rate of oil consumption, how much forex we can save bu utilizing these deposits?



Last year Pakistan spent around 15 billion dollars importing oil products.

It would make a massive difference to Pakistan's economy if this money was saved and spent on paying off debt and invested in infrastructure, education and health.

25 years of the right people managing this resource and Pakistan would be a completely different country.

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## RiazHaq

ziaulislam said:


> problem is who is going to invest in shale gas...PPL,OGDCL dont have technology and neither resources..
> shale gas is less attrative because of lesser return..until now the return promised was very low, not anymore but law and order situation isnt bright..
> 
> shale gas can only be available if OGDCL/PPL do a joint venture with foreign firms problem is that they are already cash stripped because the govt owns them!..the circular debt has made it even worse



Americans and Saudis oppose Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Pakistan should negotiate with them to see what alternative they offer. 

Pakistan's best interest is not in defying Saudis and Americans to buy expensive Iranian gas and end up with crippling sanctions which could be much worse than its current energy crisis. 

Pakistan's best interests will be served by developing its own cheap domestic shale gas on an accelerated schedule with Saudi investment and US tech know-how. If the Americans and the Saudis refuse to help, then Pakistan will have a stronger case to go with the Iran gas option.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/04/pakistans-shale-gas-with-us-ksa-help.html

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## RiazHaq

Here's a report on an on-shore discovery by Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) in Sindh province:

Karachi&#8217;s Pakistan Petroleum has reported flow test success from a deeper reservoir at its Adam X-1 gas and condensate find onshore Pakistan.
The state player said that it had evaluated the potential of lower basal sands at a depth of 3450 metres at the Block 2568-13 probe over the past two months.

The Sanghar district, Sindh province well is to be put into production immediately after flowing 14.3 million cubic feet per day of gas and 125 barrels per day of condensate, the explorer said.

Pakistan Petroleum operates the licence on a 65% working interest with compatriot Mari Petroleum on 35%.

Pakistan Petroleum sees deeper Adam flows -Upstreamonline.com

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## niaz

RiazHaq said:


> Here's a report on an off-shore discovery by Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) in Sindh province:
> 
> Karachi&#8217;s Pakistan Petroleum has reported flow test success from a deeper reservoir at its Adam X-1 gas and condensate find onshore Pakistan.
> The state player said that it had evaluated the potential of lower basal sands at a depth of 3450 metres at the Block 2568-13 probe over the past two months.
> 
> The Sanghar district, Sindh province well is to be put into production immediately after flowing 14.3 million cubic feet per day of gas and 125 barrels per day of condensate, the explorer said.
> 
> Pakistan Petroleum operates the licence on a 65% working interest with compatriot Mari Petroleum on 35%.
> 
> Pakistan Petroleum sees deeper Adam flows -Upstreamonline.com



Hon Sir,

Hala/Adam gas field is small an 'onshore field'. It is bang in the centre of Sind province. To the best of my info the proven reserves are about 20-billion cft gas & 1-million barrels condensate. 

For the record; drilling of Adam X-1 well started in 2007 and the field has been in production since 2009. The news clearly mentions district Sanghar. I happen to visit Sanghar city many times way back in the early 1970's when I was Sales Development Manager for Esso before its name was changed to PSO. Sanghar city (main town of Sanghar district) is about 40 miles north of Mirpurkhas and nowhere near the sea shore.

How did you manage to turn into an &#8216;Off-shore' discovery?


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> Here's a report on an off-shore discovery by Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) in Sindh province:
> 
> Karachi&#8217;s Pakistan Petroleum has reported flow test success from a deeper reservoir at its Adam X-1 gas and condensate find onshore Pakistan.
> The state player said that it had evaluated the potential of lower basal sands at a depth of 3450 metres at the Block 2568-13 probe over the past two months.
> 
> *The Sanghar district, Sindh province well is to be put into production* immediately after flowing 14.3 million cubic feet per day of gas and 125 barrels per day of condensate, the explorer said.
> 
> Pakistan Petroleum operates the licence on a 65% working interest with compatriot Mari Petroleum on 35%.
> 
> Pakistan Petroleum sees deeper Adam flows -Upstreamonline.com





niaz said:


> Hon Sir,
> 
> Hala/Adam gas field is small an 'onshore field'. It is bang in the centre of Sind province. To the best of my info the proven reserves are about 20-billion cft gas & 1-million barrels condensate.
> 
> For the record; drilling of Adam X-1 well started in 2007 and the field has been in production since 2009. The news clearly mentions district Sanghar. I happen to visit Sanghar city many times way back in the early 1970's when I was Sales Development Manager for Esso before its name was changed to PSO. Sanghar city (main town of Sanghar district) is about 40 miles north of Mirpurkhas and nowhere near the sea shore.
> 
> *How did you manage to turn into an &#8216;Off-shore' discovery?*



The report clearly states that the well is in Sanghar, but perhaps was placed off-shore due to our national trait of "josh-e-khitabat" caused in this case by extreme excitement induced by such discoveries.

Can threads claiming oceans of oil under our off-shore areas be far behind to support our vast shale oil and gas and Thar coal and Reko Diq copper and gold and gem resources?


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## RiazHaq

niaz said:


> Hon Sir,
> 
> Hala/Adam gas field is small an 'onshore field'. It is bang in the centre of Sind province. To the best of my info the proven reserves are about 20-billion cft gas & 1-million barrels condensate.
> 
> For the record; drilling of Adam X-1 well started in 2007 and the field has been in production since 2009. The news clearly mentions district Sanghar. I happen to visit Sanghar city many times way back in the early 1970's when I was Sales Development Manager for Esso before its name was changed to PSO. Sanghar city (main town of Sanghar district) is about 40 miles north of Mirpurkhas and nowhere near the sea shore.
> 
> How did you manage to turn into an &#8216;Off-shore' discovery?



Thanks for pointing out the error. 

The intro line is a typo on my part which I just corrected.

The story itself clearly indicates it's on-shore. "Karachi&#8217;s Pakistan Petroleum has reported flow test success from a deeper reservoir at its Adam X-1 *gas and condensate find onshore Pakistan*."

Pakistan Petroleum sees deeper Adam flows -Upstreamonline.com

To geologists, it matters little whether it's onshore or off. The difference is important only to the companies drilling for resources because they need different equipment and technology for onshore vs offshore. 

BTW, PPL does have substantial off-shore operations in Arabian Sea. 

In the distant past, it's believed by geologists that parts of lower Indus basin were underwater as evident from the marine deposits which make up the large shale formations of Ranikot in Sindh. In fact, there are on-ground reefs in Sindh which support this theory.


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## niaz

RiazHaq said:


> Thanks for pointing out the error.
> 
> The intro line is a typo on my part which I just corrected.
> 
> The story itself clearly indicates it's on-shore. "Karachis Pakistan Petroleum has reported flow test success from a deeper reservoir at its Adam X-1 *gas and condensate find onshore Pakistan*."
> 
> Pakistan Petroleum sees deeper Adam flows -Upstreamonline.com
> 
> To geologists, it matters little whether it's onshore or off. The difference is important only to the companies drilling for resources because they need different equipment and technology for onshore vs offshore.
> 
> BTW, PPL does have substantial off-shore operations in Arabian Sea.
> 
> In the distant past, it's believed by geologists that parts of lower Indus basin were underwater as evident from the marine deposits which make up the large shale formations of Ranikot in Sindh. In fact, there are on-ground reefs in Sindh which support this theory.



Agreed that large parts of Pakistan are 'sedimentary basins' and likely to have hydrocarbon deposits. However having sedimentary basin does not guarantee hydrocarbon. Pakistan does have gas as well as oil but in Fractured formations which have small Pay zones.

People in the oil industry have been aware of the offshore exploration activity in the Makran and Indus basin areas since the 60s. I know of the OGDCs offshore drilling activity in the late 80. Offshore drilling was also done by Wintershell & Occidental. Thus far all the wells have been failures, meaning either no oil/gas deposits were found or if found were tiny and not considered commercially viable.

There is little doubt that there are shale/tight gas deposits in Pakistan. However all estimates are only Guess work. We wouldnt know for sure until such time we start drilling for the same. During my early days in the oil industry, experts were of the opinion that Pakistan was sitting on 50-billion barrels of all and there was a rush of exploration activity but actual oil reserves discovered in the last 50 years do not add up to even 1-billion barrels.

Million dollar question is:

1.	Do Pakistan govt or Pakistan companies have the technology and funds to commit to a fracking venture?
2.	Are there any foreign company willing to commit huge funds in Pakistan to develop these resources?

Answer to the first question is a big NO. GOP has neither the funds nor horizontal technology expertise to undertake such a project.

Given the precarious law & order situation in Pakistan where TTP/Lej loving sections of Pakistan polity ensure that even the life of harmless cricketers and mountaineers is not safe; few foreign companies are willing to invest in Pakistan.

Who cares about 18 hours load shedding; all those TTP & Lej murderers will be rewarded with 72 houris in the afterlife.


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## muse

niaz said:


> Million dollar question is:
> 
> 1.	*Do Pakistan gov&#8217;t or Pakistan companies have the technology and funds to commit to a fracking venture?
> 2.	Are there any foreign company willing to commit huge funds in Pakistan to develop these resources?*
> 
> Answer to the first question is a big &#8216;NO&#8217;. GOP has neither the funds nor horizontal technology expertise to undertake such a project.
> 
> Given the precarious law & order situation in Pakistan where TTP/Lej loving sections of Pakistan polity ensure that even the life of harmless cricketers and mountaineers is not safe; few foreign companies are willing to invest in Pakistan.
> 
> Who cares about 18 hours load shedding; all those TTP & Lej murderers will be rewarded with 72 houris in the afterlife.




I think it really is time that we recognize that Govt is not solution to all problems -- the world is awash in private money looking for safe homes that offer the opportunity for significant returns


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## Argus Panoptes

muse said:


> I think it really is time that we recognize that Govt is not solution to all problems -- the world is awash in private money looking for safe homes that offer the opportunity for significant returns



Yes, but will that private money agree to the necessary kickbacks and percentages to be allowed to embark and then maintain on such ventures in Pakistan? How safe would that investment be when a stroke of a whimsical pen can take it all away without any recourse?

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## muse

Argus Panoptes said:


> Yes, but will that private money agree to the necessary kickbacks and percentages to be allowed to embark and then maintain on such ventures in Pakistan? How safe would that investment be when a stroke of a whimsical pen can take it all away without any recourse?



It is unfortunate that Pakistani bureaucracy and political elite continue to ignore not only the interests of Pakistan but their own larger interests. Some people say that it's the people to blame for not caring, this is misplaced, people elect deputies and bureaucracies exist to further the trust placed in them to further the best interests of peoples.


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## Argus Panoptes

muse said:


> It is unfortunate that Pakistani bureaucracy and political elite continue to ignore not only the interests of Pakistan but their own larger interests. Some people say that it's the people to blame for not caring, this is misplaced, people elect deputies and bureaucracies exist to further the trust placed in them to further the best interests of peoples.



Yes Sir, and that is why all the claimed vastness of our resources comes to naught.

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## RiazHaq

niaz said:


> Million dollar question is:
> 
> 1.	Do Pakistan gov&#8217;t or Pakistan companies have the technology and funds to commit to a fracking venture?
> 2.	Are there any foreign company willing to commit huge funds in Pakistan to develop these resources?
> 
> Answer to the first question is a big &#8216;NO&#8217;. GOP has neither the funds nor horizontal technology expertise to undertake such a project.
> 
> Given the precarious law & order situation in Pakistan where TTP/Lej loving sections of Pakistan polity ensure that even the life of harmless cricketers and mountaineers is not safe; few foreign companies are willing to invest in Pakistan.
> 
> Who cares about 18 hours load shedding; all those TTP & Lej murderers will be rewarded with 72 houris in the afterlife.



The history of the global energy industry tells us that with the right licensing terms and suitable security and political environment, oil and gas drilling can attract a lot of foreign technology and investments with lucrative returns. That's what Pak leadership should work on and money and tech will follow.

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## RiazHaq

Here's a News report on rising oil production and declining gas production in Pakistan:

KARACHI: Pakistan&#8217;s oil production in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2013 saw sharpest growth in 22 years of 14 percent. However, gas production decreased by almost three percent.

&#8220;The country&#8217;s FY13 oil production grew by 14 percent to average 76,000 barrels per day, which is well above historical 10-year oil production at cumulative average growth rate of one percent,&#8221; Atif Zafar at JS Global said. &#8220;But, the same was largely overshadowed by gas shortages in the country since gas production shrank by three percent to 4,100 million metric cubic feet per day (mmcfd).&#8221;

The decline is the rampant since 1987 mainly owing to natural depletion of existing fields.Pakistan&#8217;s proven recoverable oil and gas reserves stand enough only for 13 and 18 years, respectively, he said. However, analysts expect upgrade of reserves in the upcoming reserve appraisal.

The Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) recorded the highest production gains &#8211; based on barrels of oil equivalent &#8211; (up by three percent), whereas production of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) fell four percent and nine percent, respectively.

Based on provisional numbers for the last quarter of the fiscal year, the country&#8217;s oil production is up by only one percent, while gas production decreased by seven percent.

During the quarter, oil production of POL increased by 13 percent and gas by three percent, while OGDC&#8217;s oil production went up by two percent and gas by nine percent. Additionally, PPL&#8217;s oil production scaled up by four percent, while gas output was down by nine percent in the last quarter.

&#8220;We expect further improvement in oil production by an estimated 11 percent in the current fiscal year. However, additional gas production will largely be offset by natural depletion,&#8221; Zafar said.

Oil production at 22-year high - thenews.com.pk

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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> The history of the global energy industry tells us that *with the right licensing terms and suitable security and political environment*, oil and gas drilling can attract a lot of foreign technology and investments with lucrative returns. That's what Pak leadership should work on and money and tech will follow.



With present day conditions in Pakistan, NONE of these requisites are available. Hence foreign technology and investments will stay away.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> With present day conditions in Pakistan, NONE of these requisites are available. Hence foreign technology and investments will stay away.




There are now several foreign companies prospecting for oil and gas in Pakistan in spite of current problems. Any improvement in security situation will only bring in more of them.

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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> There are now several foreign companies prospecting for oil and gas in Pakistan in spite of current problems. Any improvement in security situation will only bring in more of them.



And just how many have made the technology for exploiting shale reserves available to Pakistan? Zero.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> And just how many have made the technology for exploiting shale reserves available to Pakistan? Zero.



US is where the shale gas extraction technology was developed. Almost all of the world's shale gas today is being produced in the US. 

However, other companies elsewhere, particular Polish companies, are very active in starting to do shale and tight gas exploration. Here's one example in Pakistan:

KARACHI - Pakistan is expected to start producing 30 Million Cubic Feet per day (MMCFD) of tight gas in July-August this year from Sajawal gas field located in the district of Dadu. According to media reports quoting government officials this would be first time the country would be producing tight gas. Pakistan has estimate tight gas reserves of about 40 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF). The first tight gas sales and purchase agreement was signed on November 13, 2012 in Islamabad for production from a tight gas reservoir in Pakistan from Kirthar Block in Dadu, Sindh. The Kirthar Block is jointly owned by Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG), which has 70 percent stake and Pakistan Petroleum Limited owns 30 percent. For the implementation of this project, SSGC has been awarded a contract for the construction of 52-km pipeline from Kirthar Block&#8217;s Rehman Gas Field which will be integrated into SSGC&#8217;s system at Naing Valve Assembly through the Bhit gas pipeline. 

Pakistan

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## RiazHaq

Here's an excerpt of a paper describing the difference between shale gas and tight gas:

All Shale Gas reservoirs are not the same. There are no typical Tight Gas reservoirs. These two statements can be found numerous times in the literature on shale gas and tight gas reservoirs. The one common aspect of developing these unconventional resources is that wells in both must be &#8216;hydraulically fractured&#8217; in order to produce commercial amounts of gas. Operator challenges and objectives to be accomplished during each phase of the Asset Life Cycle (Exploration, Appraisal, Development, Production, and Rejuvenation) of both shale gas and tight gas are similar. Drilling, well design, completion methods and hydraulic fracturing are somewhat similar; but formation evaluation, reservoir analysis, and some of the production techniques are quite different.

Much of the experience in shale and tight gas has been developed in the US and in Canada, to a lesser extent; and most of the technologies that have been developed by operators and service companies are transferable to other parts of the world....

Comparisons and Contrasts of Shale Gas and Tight Gas Developments, North American Experience and Trends


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## RiazHaq

Pakistan's Sui Southern Gas Co (SSGC) signs first ever tight gas agreement with PPL and Polish Gas consortium for 20 million cubic feet of gas per day starting in 2013:

Pakistan joins the Tight Gas Club - A landmark achievement by SSGC
SSGC is now ready to receive its first gas delivery from Rehman Gas Field. The major scope of this project, Pakistan&#8217;s first ever Tight Gas Project, involved construction of 6&#8221;/8&#8221; dia x 52 Km pipelines that include flow lines and export pipeline. This project was conducted in one of the hardest terrains and under toughest climatic conditions where temperature soared to as high as 50oC. A maximum of 20 mmcfd will be injected in the SSGC&#8217;s system through the Field.
Other salient features of the project:
· Objective: This achievement is also in line with MD&#8217;s strategic objective of FY 2012-13
· Agreement: The project commenced after the agreement signed between SSGC and a consortium of Polish Oil and Gas Company and Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. (PPL) in November 2012.
· Main Departments involved in commissioning: Planning and Development, Projects and Construction, Legal, Finance, HSEQA and L&EM Departments.
· Tendering Process: SSGC participated in the competitive bidding process last year and won the pipeline project bid (Rs 235 million).
· Resources: The Company utilized in-house resources, engaging the manpower and equipments for a period of 6 months since SSGC had no major transmission project for construction during this time.
· The Project enriched SSGC&#8217;s portfolio as an enterprising company.

http://www.ssgc.com.pk/ssgc/media_center/pdf/2012_12_december.pdf

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## niaz

Recently there has been a lot of literature available on fracking in various journals also in the Chemical Engineering Progress, a publication of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, which I get every month.

No doubt shale gas and tight gas were formed in different ways. However since extraction process of both the tight gas and shale gas involves horizontal drilling and end product (Methane) is the same, many in the oil industry don&#8217;t differentiate between the two.

Polish company starting fracking in Pakistan is really very good news for energy hungry Pakistan. However one must be fully aware of environmental implications of fracking.

Firstly, fracking wells life span is short sometimes as little as 5 years. Secondly, fracking involves very large amount of water. An average well would require anywhere between 2 to 4-million gallons of water over its life cycle. Pakistan is short of water and it remains to be seen how fracking will affect over all water situation in Sind province.

Thirdly, during the fracking process, millions of gallons of fracking fluid &#8211; a mixture of water, sand and toxic chemicals &#8211; are injected into the ground to break up the shale/ rock and release natural gas. Some of the fracking fluid remains underground where it could potentially contaminate groundwater in the future, but much of it is brought back to the surface as wastewater. That wastewater contains fracking chemicals as well as naturally occurring radioactive materials and metals found in the surrounding soil. The wastewater is often pumped into holding ponds where it can leak and settle into surrounding groundwater, and impact wildlife.

I am not trying to be a spoil sport but &#8216;Nothing is for nothing&#8217; and we should be fully aware of all pro & cons of fracking process.

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## RiazHaq

No source of energy is without risks, including wind. Here's an excerpt from a San Francisco Chronicle report:

The long hot summers of the San Joaquin Valley suck great tsunamis of cool coastal air through the Altamont Pass, producing winds so powerful that a person can lean nearly 45 degrees without falling down.

Such awesome force gave birth in the early 1980s to the world's largest collection of wind turbines, pioneers in what is now America's fastest-growing form of renewable energy and an increasingly important weapon in the battle against global warming.

But the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area is also a symbol of the wind industry's biggest stain - the killings of thousands of birds, including majestic golden eagles, by turbines. The result has been a wrenching civil war among those who are otherwise united in the struggle to save the planet and its creatures.

It's been nearly a year since a controversial legal settlement was forged among wildlife groups, wind companies and Alameda County regulators. That agreement, opposed by some parties to the dispute, promised to reduce deaths of golden eagles and three other raptor species by 50 percent in three years and called for the shutdown or relocation of the 300 or so most lethal of the approximately 5,000 windmills at Altamont. 

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/THE-DEADLY-TOLL-OF-WIND-POWER-3299197.php

Although it does burn much cleaner than coal and oil, the process of extraction of shale gas in Pakistan, or anywhere else, is not without risks, particularly risks to the environment. In the United States, there have been many reports of ground water contamination from chemicals used to fracture rocks, as well as high levels of methane in water wells. In the absence of tight regulations and close monitoring, such pollution of ground water could spell disaster for humans and agriculture.

Given Pakistan's heavy dependence on natural gas for energy and as feedstock for industries such as fertilizer, fiber and plastics, it's important to pursue shale gas fields development under reasonably tight environmental regulations to minimize risks to the ground water resources. 

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Vast Shale Gas Deposits

Shale gas extraction uses a lot less water than other forms of energy production and the water can be reused in producing more gas.

Here's a comparison:

One MMBtu, or 1 million British thermal units, a standard measurement for the energy content of fuels, was produced from these energy sources using the following amounts of water:

Deep shale natural gas 0.60-5.80 gallons

Nuclear (uranium ready to use in a power plant) 8-14 gallons

Conventional oil 8-20 gallons

Synfuel-coal gasification 11-26 gallons

Coal (ready to use in a power plant) 13-32 gallons

Oil shale 22-56 gallons

Tar sands/oil sands 27-68 gallons

Fuel ethanol from corn 2,510-29,100 gallons

Biodiesel from soy 14,000-75,000 gallons

Deep shale gas drilling uses least amount of water


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## RiazHaq

Pakistan's frequent bailouts and blackouts are clearly related. The key to solving these interlinked crises is to put high priority on developing the country's vast but untapped domestic energy resources. These include shale oil, shale gas, tight gas, Thar coal, hydro and renewables like solar and wind. Reducing Pakistan's dependence on energy imports is also the key to making the nation less vulnerable to recurring external shocks from energy prices which vary wildly with international political and economic events and crises. 

Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan's frequent bailouts and blackouts are clearly related. The key to solving these interlinked crises is to put high priority on developing the country's vast but untapped domestic energy resources. These include shale oil, shale gas, tight gas, Thar coal, hydro and renewables like solar and wind. Reducing Pakistan's dependence on energy imports is also the key to making the nation less vulnerable to recurring external shocks from energy prices which vary wildly with international political and economic events and crises.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?



You may be possibly right, but pray tell us just WHO is going to develop these "vast" resources and more importantly, HOW? The WHEN can be explained later if you can answer these first two questions.


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## Hyperion

OH GOD NOT ANOTHER:

* MASSIVE coal reserves
*MASSIVE gold reserves..

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## RiazHaq

Here are a couple of news items on Pakistani imports in 2012-13:

Dawn:

Statistics showed the oil import bill reached $13.937 billion in July-May this year as against $10.467 billion over the last year, indicating an increase of 33.15 per cent.

Import bill increases - DAWN.COM

Daily Times:

The country has suffered $20.432 billion trade deficit during last fiscal year 2012-13, according to the official figures released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Friday.

July to June: The exports from Pakistan during last 12 months of the last fiscal year 2012-13 were recorded at $24.518 billion as compared with exports of $23.624 billion in the same period of previous fiscal year 2011-12, projecting an increase of 3.76 percent.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> You may be possibly right, but pray tell us just WHO is going to develop these "vast" resources and more importantly, HOW? The WHEN can be explained later if you can answer these first two questions.



Pakistanis. The same Pakistanis who have been exploring and developing oil and gas reserves in Pakistan for years....Pakistani companies like OGDL and PPL in partnership with foreign companies like PGNiG and ENI and UEP and others. 

Who else?

Are you expecting angels to descend from the heaven to do it?


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistanis. The same Pakistanis who have been exploring and developing oil and gas reserves in Pakistan for years....Pakistani companies like OGDL and PPL in partnership with foreign companies like PGNiG and ENI and UEP and others.
> 
> Who else?
> 
> Are you expecting angels to descend from the heaven to do it?



The same Pakistanis who have done such a great job of providing power to the country?! Right you are. We can already see just how successful this premise of yours is going to be, Sir. The record speaks for itself, loud and clear.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> The same Pakistanis who have done such a great job of providing power to the country?! Right you are. We can already see just how successful this premise of yours is going to be, Sir. The record speaks for itself, loud and clear.



Do you understand the difference between fuel and electricity?

Do you know that Pakistan had abundance of gas until a few years ago? the gas that was explored and developed by PPL? the gas that powered much of the electricity generation? 

Do you realize that OGDC and PPL have a lot of professional talent quite capable of doing the job?

Do you know that tight gas production by PGNiG and PPL has already started in Sajawal? 

Have you any clue about the energy history of Pakistan since 1947? If not, I suggest you read Energy and Security in South Asia by Charles Ebinger. 

Energy and Security in South Asia: Cooperation Or Conflict? - Charles K. Ebinger - Google Books

Stop being such a cynic! Don't give up on Pakistan!!


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> Do you understand the difference between fuel and electricity?
> 
> Do you know that Pakistan had abundance of gas until a few years ago? the gas that was explored and developed by PPL? the gas that powered much of the electricity generation?
> 
> Do you realize that OGDC and PPL have a lot of professional talent quite capable of doing the job?
> 
> Do you know that tight gas production by PGNiG and PPL has already started in Sajawal?
> 
> Have you any clue about the energy history of Pakistan since 1947? If not, I suggest you read Energy and Security in South Asia by Charles Ebinger.
> 
> Energy and Security in South Asia: Cooperation Or Conflict? - Charles K. Ebinger - Google Books
> 
> Stop being such a cynic! Don't give up on Pakistan!!



Yes Sir, I do understand more than a few things actually even though it might be more convenient for you to assume that I do not.

I have no cynicism, only realism. I have not given up on Pakistan, but neither do I believe in fraudulent claims that better times are just around the corner.

Our energy sector is a mess from top to bottom, starved of capital, expertise and management. It is simply not going to be able to solve the nation's energy problems any time soon, no matter how strident your claims of untapped riches that are just about to be exploited by those who cannot even properly manage existing resources.

Sorry, but that is the reality, Sir.

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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> Yes Sir, I do understand more than a few things actually even though it might be more convenient for you to assume that I do not.
> 
> I have no cynicism, only realism. I have not given up on Pakistan, but neither do I believe in fraudulent claims that better times are just around the corner.
> 
> Our energy sector is a mess from top to bottom, starved of capital, expertise and management. It is simply not going to be able to solve the nation's energy problems any time soon, no matter how strident your claims of untapped riches that are just about to be exploited by those who cannot even properly manage existing resources.
> 
> Sorry, but that is the reality, Sir.



You don't just see Pakistan's glass half empty, you see it as completely empty with no hope of filling it. 

There's nothing more toxic for a nation than the kind of cynicism you regularly express.

In spite of all of its problems, Pakistanis have accomplished a lot in the last 66 years. 

Pakistan is a resilient nation with an upwardly mobile population. 

Haq's Musings: Upwardly Mobile Pakistan on 66th Independence Day

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## BATMAN

RiazHaq said:


> You don't just see Pakistan's glass half empty, you see it as completely empty with no hope of filling it.
> 
> There's nothing more toxic for a nation than the kind of cynicism you regularly express.
> 
> In spite of all of its problems, Pakistanis have accomplished a lot in the last 66 years.
> 
> Pakistan is a resilient nation with an upwardly mobile population.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Upwardly Mobile Pakistan on 66th Independence Day



Well said... these people are the mir jaffars of Pakistan.
There loyalties lies beyond Pakistani border.


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> You don't just see Pakistan's glass half empty, you see it as completely empty with no hope of filling it.
> 
> *There's nothing more toxic for a nation than the kind of cynicism you regularly express.*
> 
> In spite of all of its problems, Pakistanis have accomplished a lot in the last 66 years.
> 
> Pakistan is a resilient nation with an upwardly mobile population.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Upwardly Mobile Pakistan on 66th Independence Day



Please allow me to counter that by saying that *there is nothing more fraudulent than the baseless trumpeting of "good times are here soon" as things continue to go from bad to worse *since such cheer without foundations leads everyone to denial of just how bad the situation really is.

Over the last 66 years we have lost half the country, destroyed its institutions, lost out on decades of social development, ruined our power and energy sector, fallen prey to internal and external terrorism, and become known the world as a beggar and pariah state, and you want me to believe you that we have achieved much? Heaven lead us away from such "achievements", Sir. Oh wait, to be fair, lets hear about what you consider to be real achievements. Then we can talk about those too.


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> Please allow me to counter that by saying that *there is nothing more fraudulent than the baseless trumpeting of "good times are here soon" as things continue to go from bad to worse *since such cheer without foundations leads everyone to denial of just how bad the situation really is.
> 
> Over the last 66 years we have lost half the country, destroyed its institutions, lost out on decades of social development, ruined our power and energy sector, fallen prey to internal and external terrorism, and become known the world as a beggar and pariah state, and you want me to believe you that we have achieved much? Heaven lead us away from such "achievements", Sir. Oh wait, to be fair, lets hear about what you consider to be real achievements. Then we can talk about those too.



I see you as a member of the crowd that plays the worst 5% of the Pakistan story 95% of the time. 

As I see it, here are the key parts of the 95% of the Pakistan story that gets little or no coverage.

Let's start with some of the key indicators of progress Pakistan has made since independence in 1947.

1. Health & Wealth:

The health and wealth of a nation depend on availability of good nutrition and access to health care and education, which in turn rely on economic growth to support needed public and private social spending. 

The most basic indicators of progress, such as the life expectancy and per capita incomes of many nations, have been compiled and brought to life in animations developed by Professor Hans Rosling and posted on gapminder.org. 



The Gapminder animations show that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to 67 years in 2009, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to $2603 in 2009. 

2. Literacy:

Literacy is also a very important indicator of progress. Though the literacy in Pakistan has increased from about 10% in 1947 to about 60% today, it remains dismally low relative to many other nations. 

However, a closer examination of literacy data by age groups shows that the literacy rates are rising by every generation:

Over 55 years 30% literate
45-55 40% 
35-45 50%
25-35 60%
15-25 70% (Male 80%, Female 60%, UNICEF) 

Rural and Female illiteracy are the biggest challenges.

3. Poverty, Hunger and Inequality:

The World Bank ranks Pakistan among lower-middle-income nations with per capita income exceeding $1000 a year.

Pakistan is still a country with significant population of poor people. However, its recent levels of poverty are among the lowest in South Asia. 

The 2011 World Bank data shows that Pakistan's poverty rate of 17.2%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points lower than India's 27.5%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with equal or slightly lower poverty rates than Pakistan's. 

Based on hunger data collected from 2003 to 2008, The International Food Policy Research (IFPRI) has reported that Pakistan's hunger index score improved over the last three consecutive years reported since 2008 from 21.7 (2008) to 21.0 (2009) to 19.1 (2010) and its ranking rose from 61 to 58 to 52. During the same period, India's index score worsened from 23.7 to 23.9 to 24.1 and its ranking moved from 66 to 65 to 67 on a list of 84 nations.


Pakistan is also more egalitarian than its neighbors. The CIA World Factbook reports Pakistan&#8217;s Gini Index has decreased from 41 in 1998-99 to 30.6 in 2007-8, lower than India's 36.8 and Bangladesh's 33.2. 

4. Pakistan's Economy:

Pakistan state was broke in 1947 because India refused to give Pakistan its share of Sterling reserves. The situation was so bad that Pakistani govt couldn&#8217;t pay employees. In this first existential crisis, the Habibs bailed out Pakistani state by lending Rs. 80 million, more than half of Rs. 150 million budget.

Today, Pakistan's economy is the 27th largest in the world. As Part of "the Next 11" group of nations, it is one of the top 15 emerging economies (BRICs+Next11) picked by Goldman Sachs. Goldman forecasts Pakistan to be among the top 20 biggest economies in the world by 2025. 

Since 2008, Pakistan's economy has been suffering from a serious stagflation, a very bad combination of slow growth and high inflation. But the history tells us that this current situation is not normal for Pakistan. After all, it's Pakistan's robust economic growth that has enabled significant progress based on the health and wealth indicators outlined earlier. 

Beginning in 1947, Pakistani economy grew at a fairly impressive rate of 6 percent per year through the first four decades of the nation's existence. In spite of rapid population growth during this period, per capita incomes doubled, inflation remained low and poverty declined from 46% down to 18% by late 1980s, according to eminent Pakistani economist Dr. Ishrat Husain. This healthy economic performance was maintained through several wars and successive civilian and military governments in 1950s, 60s, 70s and 80s until the decade of 1990s, now appropriately remembered as the lost decade. 

In the period from 2000-2007, here's what the IMF agreed to in 2008 as part of the nation's bailout:

Pakistan became one of the four fastest growing economies in the Asian region during 2000-07 with its growth averaging 7.0 per cent per year for most of this period. As a result of strong economic growth, Pakistan succeeded in reducing poverty by one-half, creating almost 13 million jobs, halving the country's debt burden, raising foreign exchange reserves to a comfortable position and propping the country's exchange rate, restoring investors' confidence and most importantly, taking Pakistan out of the IMF Program. 

5. Science and Technology:

Here are some of the facts about Pakistan's progress in science and technology that never make the headlines in the mainstream media anywhere, including Pakistan:

-Pakistan has been ScienceWatch&#8217;s Rising Star for scientific papers published in various international journals.

-Pakistan is among a handful of nations with dozens of scientists working on CERN&#8217;s high-profile SuperCollider Project. Several SuperCollider components were built in Pakistan. 

-Jinnah Antarctic Station puts Pakistan among a dozen nations doing research in Antarctica. 

-Pakistan&#8217;s IT Industry is worth $2.8 billion and growing



-Pakistan leads the world in biometric IT services with the world&#8217;s biggest biometric database.

-Top-selling Blackberry application was developed by a Pakistani company Pepper.pk

6. Arts, Literature & Culture:

There has been an explosion of the uniquely Pakistani arts and literature:

-Sachal Orchestra, a Lahore Jazz Group, is topping western music charts 

-Regular book fairs, music concerts, fashion shows & theater group performances

-UK&#8217;s Granta Magazine Special Issue Highlights Successful Pakistani Authors&#8217; Books Published in Europe and America. Examples: Mohsin Hamid (The Reluctant Fundamentalist), Daniyal Mueenuddin (In Other Rooms, Other Wonders), Kamila Shamsie (Burnt Shadows), Mohammad Hanif (A Case of Exploding Mangoes) and Nadeem Aslam (The Wasted Vigil) who have been making waves in literary circles and winning prizes in London and New York. 

7. Heavy Manufacturing:

Pakistan has a significant heavy industry today. For example: 

-Autos, Motorcycles, Tractors, Buses, Trucks (Auto Sales Up 61% in July, 2011)

-Steel

-Nuclear Reactors (Khushab)

-Aircrafts

-Ships

-Unmanned Drones (UAVs)

-Army Tanks

-Ballistic and Cruise Missiles

8. Natural Resources:

Pakistan is rich in energy and mineral resources. 

-US Dept of Energy estimates 51 trillion cubic feet of shale gas mostly in Sindh. And there's good potential for shale oil in the country. 

-Vast coal reserves at Thar for cheap electricity

-Huge deposits of copper, gold, iron and rare earths at Reko Diq, Dilband and Saindak in Balochistan

-High sustained wind speeds of 13 to 16 mph along the Arabian Sea coastline

-Lots of sunshine everywhere all year round

-Significant hyrdo energy potential

9. Strong Society:

The Habibs bailed out Pakistani state in 1947. 

Now, let's see how Edhi doing it in 2011. Here's quote from Anatol Leiven's "Pakistan: A Hard Country": 

"There is no sight in Pakistan more moving than to visit some dusty, impoverished small town in arid wasteland, apparently abandoned by God and all sensible men and certainly abandoned by the Pakistani state and its own elected representatives- to see the flag of the Edhi Foundation flying over a concrete shack with a telephone, and the only ambulance in town standing in front. Here, if anywhere in Pakistan, lies the truth of human religion and human morality".

Lieven says Pakistanis donate 5% of the GDP for charitable cause, making Pakistanis the most generous people in the world. As a benchmark, philanthropy accounts for 2.2% of gdp in the United States, 1.3% in the UK, 1.2% in Canada and 0.6% in India. 

10. Weak State:

Unfortunately, Pakistani state, run by politicians and their hand-picked civilian administrators, is weak, incompetent and ineffective. 

The Pakistani military and the civil society bails out the state each time it is found lacking. Examples include the earthquake in 2005 , Swat takeover by Taliban insurgents in 2009, and massive floods in 2010. In each of these cases, the politicians and the civilian administrators abandoned the people and the world media declared Pakistan a failed state on the verge of total collapse. But they were proved wrong. 

The military launched the rescue and relief efforts by deploying all of its resources, and then the NGOs like Edhi Foundation stepped in to help the people stand on their feet again. 

Summary:

While the worst 5% of the Pakistan story gets all the headlines, the reality of Pakistan today as vibrant society and a strong nation gets ignored by the mainstream media. The real story of Pakistan is the resilience of its 180 million citizens who continue to strive to make it better and stronger. 

The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.

Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

Wide Angle Zoom: Formation and Future of Pakistan - Video Dailymotion

Reactions: Like Like:
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## RiazHaq

BATMAN said:


> Well said... these people are the mir jaffars of Pakistan.
> There loyalties lies beyond Pakistani border.



Could be false flag!!!


----------



## RiazHaq

RiazHaq said:


> I see you as a member of the crowd that plays the worst 5% of the Pakistan story 95% of the time.
> 
> As I see it, here are the key parts of the 95% of the Pakistan story that gets little or no coverage.
> 
> Let's start with some of the key indicators of progress Pakistan has made since independence in 1947.
> 
> 1. Health & Wealth:
> 
> The health and wealth of a nation depend on availability of good nutrition and access to health care and education, which in turn rely on economic growth to support needed public and private social spending.
> 
> The most basic indicators of progress, such as the life expectancy and per capita incomes of many nations, have been compiled and brought to life in animations developed by Professor Hans Rosling and posted on gapminder.org.
> 
> 
> 
> The Gapminder animations show that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to 67 years in 2009, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to $2603 in 2009.
> 
> 2. Literacy:
> 
> Literacy is also a very important indicator of progress. Though the literacy in Pakistan has increased from about 10% in 1947 to about 60% today, it remains dismally low relative to many other nations.
> 
> However, a closer examination of literacy data by age groups shows that the literacy rates are rising by every generation:
> 
> Over 55 years 30% literate
> 45-55 40%
> 35-45 50%
> 25-35 60%
> 15-25 70% (Male 80%, Female 60%, UNICEF)
> 
> Rural and Female illiteracy are the biggest challenges.
> 
> 3. Poverty, Hunger and Inequality:
> 
> The World Bank ranks Pakistan among lower-middle-income nations with per capita income exceeding $1000 a year.
> 
> Pakistan is still a country with significant population of poor people. However, its recent levels of poverty are among the lowest in South Asia.
> 
> The 2011 World Bank data shows that Pakistan's poverty rate of 17.2%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points lower than India's 27.5%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with equal or slightly lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.
> 
> Based on hunger data collected from 2003 to 2008, The International Food Policy Research (IFPRI) has reported that Pakistan's hunger index score improved over the last three consecutive years reported since 2008 from 21.7 (2008) to 21.0 (2009) to 19.1 (2010) and its ranking rose from 61 to 58 to 52. During the same period, India's index score worsened from 23.7 to 23.9 to 24.1 and its ranking moved from 66 to 65 to 67 on a list of 84 nations.
> 
> 
> Pakistan is also more egalitarian than its neighbors. The CIA World Factbook reports Pakistan&#8217;s Gini Index has decreased from 41 in 1998-99 to 30.6 in 2007-8, lower than India's 36.8 and Bangladesh's 33.2.
> 
> 4. Pakistan's Economy:
> 
> Pakistan state was broke in 1947 because India refused to give Pakistan its share of Sterling reserves. The situation was so bad that Pakistani govt couldn&#8217;t pay employees. In this first existential crisis, the Habibs bailed out Pakistani state by lending Rs. 80 million, more than half of Rs. 150 million budget.
> 
> Today, Pakistan's economy is the 27th largest in the world. As Part of "the Next 11" group of nations, it is one of the top 15 emerging economies (BRICs+Next11) picked by Goldman Sachs. Goldman forecasts Pakistan to be among the top 20 biggest economies in the world by 2025.
> 
> Since 2008, Pakistan's economy has been suffering from a serious stagflation, a very bad combination of slow growth and high inflation. But the history tells us that this current situation is not normal for Pakistan. After all, it's Pakistan's robust economic growth that has enabled significant progress based on the health and wealth indicators outlined earlier.
> 
> Beginning in 1947, Pakistani economy grew at a fairly impressive rate of 6 percent per year through the first four decades of the nation's existence. In spite of rapid population growth during this period, per capita incomes doubled, inflation remained low and poverty declined from 46% down to 18% by late 1980s, according to eminent Pakistani economist Dr. Ishrat Husain. This healthy economic performance was maintained through several wars and successive civilian and military governments in 1950s, 60s, 70s and 80s until the decade of 1990s, now appropriately remembered as the lost decade.
> 
> In the period from 2000-2007, here's what the IMF agreed to in 2008 as part of the nation's bailout:
> 
> Pakistan became one of the four fastest growing economies in the Asian region during 2000-07 with its growth averaging 7.0 per cent per year for most of this period. As a result of strong economic growth, Pakistan succeeded in reducing poverty by one-half, creating almost 13 million jobs, halving the country's debt burden, raising foreign exchange reserves to a comfortable position and propping the country's exchange rate, restoring investors' confidence and most importantly, taking Pakistan out of the IMF Program.
> 
> 5. Science and Technology:
> 
> Here are some of the facts about Pakistan's progress in science and technology that never make the headlines in the mainstream media anywhere, including Pakistan:
> 
> -Pakistan has been ScienceWatch&#8217;s Rising Star for scientific papers published in various international journals.
> 
> -Pakistan is among a handful of nations with dozens of scientists working on CERN&#8217;s high-profile SuperCollider Project. Several SuperCollider components were built in Pakistan.
> 
> -Jinnah Antarctic Station puts Pakistan among a dozen nations doing research in Antarctica.
> 
> -Pakistan&#8217;s IT Industry is worth $2.8 billion and growing
> 
> 
> 
> -Pakistan leads the world in biometric IT services with the world&#8217;s biggest biometric database.
> 
> -Top-selling Blackberry application was developed by a Pakistani company Pepper.pk
> 
> 6. Arts, Literature & Culture:
> 
> There has been an explosion of the uniquely Pakistani arts and literature:
> 
> -Sachal Orchestra, a Lahore Jazz Group, is topping western music charts
> 
> -Regular book fairs, music concerts, fashion shows & theater group performances
> 
> -UK&#8217;s Granta Magazine Special Issue Highlights Successful Pakistani Authors&#8217; Books Published in Europe and America. Examples: Mohsin Hamid (The Reluctant Fundamentalist), Daniyal Mueenuddin (In Other Rooms, Other Wonders), Kamila Shamsie (Burnt Shadows), Mohammad Hanif (A Case of Exploding Mangoes) and Nadeem Aslam (The Wasted Vigil) who have been making waves in literary circles and winning prizes in London and New York.
> 
> 7. Heavy Manufacturing:
> 
> Pakistan has a significant heavy industry today. For example:
> 
> -Autos, Motorcycles, Tractors, Buses, Trucks (Auto Sales Up 61% in July, 2011)
> 
> -Steel
> 
> -Nuclear Reactors (Khushab)
> 
> -Aircrafts
> 
> -Ships
> 
> -Unmanned Drones (UAVs)
> 
> -Army Tanks
> 
> -Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
> 
> 8. Natural Resources:
> 
> Pakistan is rich in energy and mineral resources.
> 
> -US Dept of Energy estimates 51 trillion cubic feet of shale gas mostly in Sindh. And there's good potential for shale oil in the country.
> 
> -Vast coal reserves at Thar for cheap electricity
> 
> -Huge deposits of copper, gold, iron and rare earths at Reko Diq, Dilband and Saindak in Balochistan
> 
> -High sustained wind speeds of 13 to 16 mph along the Arabian Sea coastline
> 
> -Lots of sunshine everywhere all year round
> 
> -Significant hyrdo energy potential
> 
> 9. Strong Society:
> 
> The Habibs bailed out Pakistani state in 1947.
> 
> Now, let's see how Edhi doing it in 2011. Here's quote from Anatol Leiven's "Pakistan: A Hard Country":
> 
> "There is no sight in Pakistan more moving than to visit some dusty, impoverished small town in arid wasteland, apparently abandoned by God and all sensible men and certainly abandoned by the Pakistani state and its own elected representatives- to see the flag of the Edhi Foundation flying over a concrete shack with a telephone, and the only ambulance in town standing in front. Here, if anywhere in Pakistan, lies the truth of human religion and human morality".
> 
> Lieven says Pakistanis donate 5% of the GDP for charitable cause, making Pakistanis the most generous people in the world. As a benchmark, philanthropy accounts for 2.2% of gdp in the United States, 1.3% in the UK, 1.2% in Canada and 0.6% in India.
> 
> 10. Weak State:
> 
> Unfortunately, Pakistani state, run by politicians and their hand-picked civilian administrators, is weak, incompetent and ineffective.
> 
> The Pakistani military and the civil society bails out the state each time it is found lacking. Examples include the earthquake in 2005 , Swat takeover by Taliban insurgents in 2009, and massive floods in 2010. In each of these cases, the politicians and the civilian administrators abandoned the people and the world media declared Pakistan a failed state on the verge of total collapse. But they were proved wrong.
> 
> The military launched the rescue and relief efforts by deploying all of its resources, and then the NGOs like Edhi Foundation stepped in to help the people stand on their feet again.
> 
> Summary:
> 
> While the worst 5% of the Pakistan story gets all the headlines, the reality of Pakistan today as vibrant society and a strong nation gets ignored by the mainstream media. The real story of Pakistan is the resilience of its 180 million citizens who continue to strive to make it better and stronger.
> 
> The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.
> 
> Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
> What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence
> 
> Wide Angle Zoom: Formation and Future of Pakistan - Video Dailymotion


----------



## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> I see you as a member of the crowd that plays the worst 5% of the Pakistan story 95% of the time.
> 
> As I see it, here are the key parts of the 95% of the Pakistan story that gets little or no coverage.
> 
> Let's start with some of the key indicators of progress Pakistan has made since independence in 1947.
> 
> ..................
> 
> Summary:
> 
> While the worst 5% of the Pakistan story gets all the headlines, the reality of Pakistan today as vibrant society and a strong nation gets ignored by the mainstream media. The real story of Pakistan is the resilience of its 180 million citizens who continue to strive to make it better and stronger.
> 
> The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.
> 
> Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
> What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.........................



As you peddle all that pre-canned tired old propaganda, please note how you never once assess all these milestones that you tout relative to other countries. Yes, our health, wealth and economy have improved since 1947, but we are further behind our peers than ever before.

(BTW, I am aware of your previous posts where you try to prove that we are doing so much better than India. That will not add anything here.)

Why is that Sir?

Of course, then you try to insinuate "false flags". 

Please stick to the substance of the argument, if you can, Sir.


----------



## BATMAN

@Argus Panoptus, all i can tell you.. the potential of minerals in Pakistan is very realistic, along with Afghanistan... it is much more than the people can handle.
They available information is just a fraction of real potential, foreign states are willing to pour in $trillions to the politicians, media and separatists.
We are more rich than Saudi Arabia or Iran in both natural resources and human resources.

Reactions: Like Like:
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## RiazHaq

BATMAN said:


> @Argus Panoptus, all i can tell you.. the potential of minerals in Pakistan is very realistic, along with Afghanistan... it is much more than the people can handle.
> They available information is just a fraction of real potential, foreign states are willing to pour in $trillions to the politicians, media and separatists.
> We are more rich than Saudi Arabia or Iran in both natural resources and human resources.



Former Goldman Sachs executive Jim O'Neill, the man who coined BRIC, agrees with your assessment re Pakistan vs many other nations, imncluding Saudi Arabia and GCC nations. 

In his book "The Growth Map" published in late 2011, Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill of BRIC fame has reiterated Pakistan's long term growth prospects as part of the Next 11 (N-11) group of nations which includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam. 

Answering a reporter's question about the growth prospects of GCC (oil-rich nations of Gulf Cooperation Council) at a recent investment conference in Dubai, he said: "Some GCC countries are well placed to be hubs for the BRIC and N-11-influenced world. I often think of Dubai as a kind of N-11 center, even the capital of the N-11 world, given its business adjacency to Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and, of course, India and Russia."

While the primary criterion used by Goldman Sachs for membership of a developing nation in BRIC and N-11 is the size of its population, the firm also considers what it calls Growth Environment Score (GES) of each nation. The 13 variables which make up growth environment score are inflation, fiscal deficit, external debt, investment rate, openness of the economy, penetration of phones, penetration of personal computers, penetration of internet, average years of secondary education, life expectancy, political stability, rule of law and corruption. 

Goldman Sachs has given Pakistan a low GES score which puts the country among the bottom third of Next-11 nations. However, this score is rising, and Goldman forecasts that Pakistan will be among the top 20 world economies by 2025. 

Haq's Musings: Pakistan on Goldman's BRIC+ N11 Growth Map

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## RiazHaq

First tight gas well producing 15 million cubic feet per day of natural gas is on line at Sajawal gas field in Kirthar block in Sindh province, according to a report in Express Tribune. This marks a major milestone in development of unconventional hydrocarbon energy sources in Pakistan. Sajawal gas field is located 110 km south east of Karachi, Pakistan. It puts Pakistan in an exclusive club of just a few nations producing unconventional natural gas.

Haq's Musings: Tight Gas Production Begins in Pakistan

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## Samlee

jbgt90 said:


> Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.




https://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&...FKENt9gCZmcDDMD0MBHtmiw&bvm=bv.50165853,d.Yms


Anything Else Sir,


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## T90TankGuy

Samlee said:


> https://www.google.com.pk/url?sa=t&...FKENt9gCZmcDDMD0MBHtmiw&bvm=bv.50165853,d.Yms
> 
> 
> Anything Else Sir,



considering this is last years news , is there a follow on story which states any money was actually invested?


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## Samlee

Skull and Bones said:


> I have never seen him posting the real source of news, rather than his own blog post.



Get Your Eyes Tested Than Read His Blog Carefully Instead Of Trolling.Nearly Everything He Mentions With Links and References


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## Samlee

jbgt90 said:


> considering this is last years news , is there a follow on story which states any money was actually invested?



Sir.It Is Not As If These Reserves Will Go Online Overnight.I will Try To Find Out More But Here Is Something Latest

*OGDCL awards contract for gas development
* 

News Desk
Saturday, April 06, 2013 
From Print Edition





ISLAMABAD: The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) awarded contract for development of Kunar Pasakhi Deep and Tando Allah Yar field development project phase&#8211;II.

The project consists of gas gathering system, which will convert 250 million meter cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of raw gas into 225 mmcfd of pipeline quality gas, and is expected to be completed within the next 12 months.

KPD-TAY field is located in Sindh province and about 25 km from Hyderabad. OGDCL had commenced early production of 100-110 mmcf of raw gas on fast track basis through temporary facilities in order to combat the severe energy crisis in the country. This was declared as phase-I of the KPD.

Once completed, the project will deliver *225 mmcfd of shale gas*, 5,100 billion barrels of condensate and 413 metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas on a daily basis.

As the largest oil and gas company in Pakistan, OGDCL continues to strive to accelerate the production of its oil and gas fields on a fast track basis in order to overcome the energy needs of the masses.

After completion of this project, OGDCL will contribute substantial increase in gas, condensate and LPG in the national resources. OGDCL is committed to explore more areas of the country to meet the energy requirements of the country.

OGDCL awards contract for gas development - thenews.com.pk

Also A New Shale Gas Policy Has Been Approved

Cabinet approves shale gas policy - DAWN.COM

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## Samlee

*Shale gas reservoirs much higher than estimates: US EIA study
*


July 27, 2013 ABDUL RASHEED AZAD
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated shale gas at 586 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) against its 2011 estimates of 52 Tcf for Pakistan. According to latest EIA study, the shale gas/oil reservoirs are much higher in Pakistan relative to what was estimated in the earlier studies/reports. The study estimates a total of 1,170 Tcf of risked shale gas in-place for India/Pakistan, 584 Tcf in India and 586 Tcf in Pakistan. 

The risked technically recoverable shale gas resource is estimated at 201 Tcf, with 96 Tcf in India and 105 Tcf in Pakistan. In addition, the study estimates risked shale oil in-place for India/Pakistan of 314 billion barrels, with 87 billion barrels in India and 227 billion barrels in Pakistan. The risked technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 12.9 billion barrels for these two countries, with 3.8 billion barrels for India and 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan. 

The EIA study has also revised shale gas global reservoir from 6,622 Tcf in 2011 to 7,299 Tcf in 2013, which indicates a 10 percent increase. The top six countries in terms of recoverable shale gas resources are US with estimated shale gas reservoirs at 1,161 Tcf, followed by China 1,115 Tcf, Argentina 802 Tcf, Algeria 707 Tcf, Canada 573 Tcf and Mexico 545 Tcf. The top five countries in terms of recoverable shale oil - Russia, the US, China, Argentina and Libya - account for 63 percent of the world's total. 

ARI in compiling its "World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment" surveyed in-place and technically recoverable shale gas and shale oil in 95 shale basins and 137 shale formations in 41 countries and also included its other assessments of US shale gas and oil reserves from other research. 

In Pakistan, the shale gas and oil assessment is restricted to the aerially extensive Central and Southern Indus basins, referred to as the Lower Indus Basin. The shales in this basin have sourced the significant volumes of conventional oil and gas discovered and produced in Pakistan. However, to date, no shale specific exploration has been publicly reported for Pakistan. 

Within the overall prospective area of the Lower Indus Basin, the Sembar Shale has risked shale gas in-place of 531 Tcf, with 101 Tcf as the risked, technically recoverable shale gas resource. In addition, the Sembar Shale has 145 billion barrels of shale oil in-place, with 5.8 billion barrels as the risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource. Within its 26,780-mi2 wet gas and condensate prospective area, the Ranikot Shale has resource concentrations of 17 Bcf/mi2 of wet gas and 25 million barrels/mi2 of shale oil/condensate. Within this prospective area of the Lower Indus Basin, the Ranikot Shale has 55 Tcf of risked shale gas in-place and 82 billion barrels of risked shale oil in-place. The risked, technically recoverable shale resources of the Ranikot Shale are 4 Tcf of wet shale gas and 3.3 billion barrels of shale oil/condensate. The shale gas exploration is highly technical and costly, therefore, in order to encourage its exploration, pilot projects are needed as well as huge foreign investment. 

An official of the Petroleum Ministry when contacted said that keeping in view the huge shale gas/oil reservoirs in the country, the government in 2012 approved a new exploration policy, with improved incentives, as compared to the 2009 policy. Pakistan has offered higher prices for shale and tight gas to exploration companies, it is estimated that Pakistan would pay a maximum of $6.50/MMBtu. 

Giving salient features of the expected shale gas policy the source said: "Exploration and Production (E&P) companies will be offered 40-50 percent higher prices for the extracted gas compared with the $4.26/mmbtu price announced in Exploration and Production Policy 2009. Companies which succeed in recovering gas from tight fields within two years would get 50 percent hike over the 2009 price and, if it takes more time, they will get only 40 percent hike on the 2009 price. As an added incentive, the leases for the fields will now be for 40 years, instead of 30 in the 2009 policy." 

Extracting of shale and tight was a real challenge, since the cost and effort involved in extracting tight gas was quite different from conventional methods, but it had been commercially extracted in many parts of the world now and there were some tried and tested methods, he maintained. 

The first ever tight gas Sales and Purchase Agreement was signed on November 13, 2012 in Islamabad for first production from a tight gas reservoir in Pakistan from Kirthar Block in Dadu, Sindh. The Kirthar Block is jointly owned by Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (70 percent) and PPL (30 percent). If exploration and extraction is on schedule, SSGC will receive 30mmcfd gas into its system through two Kirthar Block wells. 

Apart from this, PPL in collaboration with ENI is set to start for the first time drilling of exploratory well in Sindh's deep sea in 2014. In this regard, around seven exploratory wells, eight appraisal wells, and 19 development wells have been planned for discovering shale and tight gas in Sindh in the next five years. Pakistan is particularly heavily dependent on natural gas for its energy needs. At present actual demand for gas is around 8 billion cubic feet (BCFD) per day, while managed demand is hovering around 6 BCFD against total supply of 4.3 BC

Shale gas reservoirs much higher than estimates: US EIA study | Business Recorder


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## Samlee

self deleted


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## Argus Panoptes

Samlee said:


> *Shale gas reservoirs much higher than estimates: US EIA study*
> 
> July 27, 2013 ABDUL RASHEED AZAD
> The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated shale gas at 586 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) against its 2011 estimates of 52 Tcf for Pakistan. According to latest EIA study, the shale gas/oil reservoirs are much higher in Pakistan relative to what was estimated in the earlier studies/reports. The study estimates a total of 1,170 Tcf of risked shale gas in-place for India/Pakistan, 584 Tcf in India and 586 Tcf in Pakistan. ...........
> 
> 
> Shale gas reservoirs much higher than estimates: US EIA study | Business Recorder



The full EIA Report also lists the REQUIREMENTS to exploit these shale gas reserves, and we have NONE of those available. None. Nothing.

So what good does that resource do for us if it stays buried underground?


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## RiazHaq

Argus Panoptes said:


> The full EIA Report also lists the REQUIREMENTS to exploit these shale gas reserves, and we have NONE of those available. None. Nothing.
> 
> So what good does that resource do for us if it stays buried underground?



Nonsense!!!

Pakistan has already started tight gas production. 

First tight gas well producing 15 million cubic feet per day of natural gas is on line at Sajawal gas field in Kirthar block in Sindh province, according to a report in Express Tribune. This marks a major milestone in development of unconventional hydrocarbon energy sources in Pakistan. Sajawal gas field is located 110 km south east of Karachi, Pakistan. It puts Pakistan in an exclusive club of just a few nations producing unconventional natural gas.

Wells for unconventional resources (tight and shale) must be "hydraulically fractured" (fracked) in order to produce commercial amounts of gas. Operator challenges and objectives to be accomplished during each phase of the Asset Life Cycle (Exploration, Appraisal, Development, Production, and Rejuvenation) of both shale gas and tight gas are similar, according to a paper on this subject. Drilling, well design, completion methods and hydraulic fracturing are somewhat similar; but formation evaluation, reservoir analysis, and some of the production techniques are quite different. 

Haq's Musings: Tight Gas Production Begins in Pakistan


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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> Nonsense!!!
> 
> Pakistan has already started tight gas production.
> 
> .............
> 
> Haq's Musings: Tight Gas Production Begins in Pakistan



Double nonsense!!

Let me know when ALL the bazillions of tera mega cubic feet of tight and shale gas that we will produce actually ends loadshedding for gas.

Aiwaeen qaum ko phuddu laga rahey hein aap.
(You are taking the mickey out of the whole nation.)


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## Jungibaaz

Shale reserves will remain largely as they are, reserves they will remain. 

Pakistaniyo! You cannot attempt the Middle Eastern model of getting rich off oil, there's no quick money scheme for us, stop looking for it. This is what's wrong with us, I say this time and time again, leaders show up with all sorts of get rich quick schemes which they sell to their gullible masses. Why is it so easy? Because Pakistanis are a lazy bunch, always looking for a quick, painless fix.

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## ejaz007

RiazHaq said:


> First tight gas well producing 15 million cubic feet per day of natural gas is on line at Sajawal gas field in Kirthar block in Sindh province, according to a report in Express Tribune. This marks a major milestone in development of unconventional hydrocarbon energy sources in Pakistan. Sajawal gas field is located 110 km south east of Karachi, Pakistan. It puts Pakistan in an exclusive club of just a few nations producing unconventional natural gas.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Tight Gas Production Begins in Pakistan



This has been reported wrong by almost every body.

The first tight gas field went on production in the last week of June 2013. It is Rehman field operated by Polish Oil and Gas Company and is located near ENI Bhit field.



Jungibaaz said:


> Shale reserves will remain largely as they are, reserves they will remain.
> 
> Pakistaniyo! You cannot attempt the Middle Eastern model of getting rich off oil, there's no quick money scheme for us, stop looking for it. This is what's wrong with us, I say this time and time again, leaders show up with all sorts of get rich quick schemes which they sell to their gullible masses. Why is it so easy? Because Pakistanis are a lazy bunch, always looking for a quick, painless fix.



The price offered by the government now makes them attractive and a number of companies are looking into the possibility of exploring tight gas including OGDCL and PPL.


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## Donatello

Jungibaaz said:


> Shale reserves will remain largely as they are, reserves they will remain.
> 
> Pakistaniyo! You cannot attempt the Middle Eastern model of getting rich off oil, there's no quick money scheme for us, stop looking for it. This is what's wrong with us, I say this time and time again, leaders show up with all sorts of get rich quick schemes which they sell to their gullible masses. Why is it so easy? Because Pakistanis are a lazy bunch, always looking for a quick, painless fix.




The idea is to let the foreign and established firms like BP, Chevron, Total, ENI etc come in and make investments. Government should charge royalties and taxation. That way we can generate revenue from our natural resources and put them to good use. The current working of the OGDCL is so much corrupted that no foreign firm wants to meddle and deal with the bureaucrats.


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## RiazHaq

Jungibaaz said:


> Shale reserves will remain largely as they are, reserves they will remain.
> 
> Pakistaniyo! You cannot attempt the Middle Eastern model of getting rich off oil, there's no quick money scheme for us, stop looking for it. This is what's wrong with us, I say this time and time again, leaders show up with all sorts of get rich quick schemes which they sell to their gullible masses. Why is it so easy? Because Pakistanis are a lazy bunch, always looking for a quick, painless fix.



This is not about getting rich off of oil; it's about reducing dependence on costly imports. 

Frequent IMF bailouts and power blackouts in energy-rich Pakistan are closely tied. One of the key reasons for recurring balance-of-payment crises is the country's rapidly rising oil import bill. The lack of sufficient fuel exacerbates load shedding, negatively impacts economy, reduces tax revenue growth and worsens current account and budget deficits. This requires repeated injections of IMF loans in US dollars to meet import requirements and deal with budget shortfalls.

The key to solving these interlinked crises is to put high priority on developing the country's vast but untapped domestic energy resources. These include shale oil, shale gas, tight gas, Thar coal, hydro and renewables like solar and wind. Reducing Pakistan's dependence on energy imports is also the key to making the nation less vulnerable to recurring external shocks from energy prices which vary wildly with international political and economic events and crises.

Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?


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## RiazHaq

Pakistan's Energy Infrastructure Map

Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?


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## Jungibaaz

ejaz007 said:


> The price offered by the government now makes them attractive and a number of companies are looking into the possibility of exploring tight gas including OGDCL and PPL.




No-one wants to invest in a nation where the security situation is helpless, where foreigners are literally hunted and killed, and it seems there's no place left in Pakistan where they cannot reach. No-one wants to operate in a nation where the infrastructure is so poor, where costs and external shocks to a private enterprise are so high. Furthermore, political instability makes everyone's future uncertain, Pakistan is also a likely candidate for possible sanctions. 

Add all that up and more and you realize that none of those corporations in their right mind would want to come to Pakistan at a time like this.



Donatello said:


> The idea is to let the foreign and established firms like BP, Chevron, Total, ENI etc come in and make investments. Government should charge royalties and taxation. That way we can generate revenue from our natural resources and put them to good use. The current working of the OGDCL is so much corrupted that no foreign firm wants to meddle and deal with the bureaucrats.



I do agree in what you're saying that *IF* these corporations make it to Pakistan, they should be made to pay, but that is something again people will do if Pakistan offers them the right opportunity. 

Let me also add, often you see, in the past major global players that did come to Pakistan did get massive tax breaks, huge cuts in red tape costs, that is because they managed to bribe the government officials they work with. There are some cases of where the government officials themselves offer the bribe, if the corporation don't take it, the officials refuse to co-operate. Add on another reason why Pakistan is not the right place.

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## Jungibaaz

RiazHaq said:


> This is not about getting rich off of oil; it's about reducing dependence on costly imports.
> 
> Frequent IMF bailouts and power blackouts in energy-rich Pakistan are closely tied. One of the key reasons for recurring balance-of-payment crises is the country's rapidly rising oil import bill. The lack of sufficient fuel exacerbates load shedding, negatively impacts economy, reduces tax revenue growth and worsens current account and budget deficits. This requires repeated injections of IMF loans in US dollars to meet import requirements and deal with budget shortfalls.
> 
> The key to solving these interlinked crises is to put high priority on developing the country's vast but untapped domestic energy resources. These include shale oil, shale gas, tight gas, Thar coal, hydro and renewables like solar and wind. Reducing Pakistan's dependence on energy imports is also the key to making the nation less vulnerable to recurring external shocks from energy prices which vary wildly with international political and economic events and crises.
> 
> Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?



Right and that is what I meant in the first place. I'm not saying the individual Pakistanis going to be selling Brent by the barrel.
Rather the oil would be cheaper, the oil would also generate tax revenue which would improve of our fiscal status and allow us to spend more on development and public spending. Also it would improve the balance of trade situation, it would even provide jobs in that sector and in those hubs and thousands more jobs in the supporting sector. Furthermore, investment is investment, it leads to growth given the right circumstances. 

So all these great things. But as I've said above in the reply to Ejaz. 
There are certain prerequisites and we don't fit the bill yet.


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## Menace2Society

If you look past the doom and gloom merchants and negative people, Pakistan has a very bright future.

If I will see her flourish in my lifetime remains to be seen.

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## RiazHaq

Menace2Society said:


> If you look past the doom and gloom merchants and negative people, Pakistan has a very bright future.
> 
> If I will see her flourish in my lifetime remains to be seen.



I agree. Pakistanis have a history of defying doomsayers. 

Pakistanis are no strangers to the oft-repeated apocalyptic forecasts of imminent collapse of their nation that have been regularly dished out by many western leaders, leading analysts and mainstream media over the years. The 2009 Swat valley insurgency and 2010 summer floods sent these pessimist pundits in overdrive yet again as the images of the victims of these crises were widely distributed and discussed at length. 

Haq's Musings: Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers


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## Donatello

Jungibaaz said:


> No-one wants to invest in a nation where the security situation is helpless, where foreigners are literally hunted and killed, and it seems there's no place left in Pakistan where they cannot reach. No-one wants to operate in a nation where the infrastructure is so poor, where costs and external shocks to a private enterprise are so high. Furthermore, political instability makes everyone's future uncertain, Pakistan is also a likely candidate for possible sanctions.
> 
> Add all that up and more and you realize that none of those corporations in their right mind would want to come to Pakistan at a time like this.
> 
> 
> 
> I do agree in what you're saying that *IF* these corporations make it to Pakistan, they should be made to pay, but that is something again people will do if Pakistan offers them the right opportunity.
> 
> Let me also add, often you see, in the past major global players that did come to Pakistan did get massive tax breaks, huge cuts in red tape costs, that is because they managed to bribe the government officials they work with. There are some cases of where the government officials themselves offer the bribe, if the corporation don't take it, the officials refuse to co-operate. Add on another reason why Pakistan is not the right place.




If those same companies can work in hostile and unstable African states, why not Pakistan? The problem is there is no clear cut policy by the government. The officials in charge of negotiations have no technical know how. They just got there due to their political positions.


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## Argus Panoptes

Donatello said:


> *If those same companies can work in hostile and unstable African states, why not Pakistan? *The problem is there is no clear cut policy by the government. The officials in charge of negotiations have no technical know how. They just got there due to their political positions.



May be the problem is that actually Pakistan is more hostile and unstable than those states in Africa? Could be so.


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## Rafael

Argus Panoptes said:


> May be the problem is that actually Pakistan is more hostile and unstable than those states in Africa? Could be so.



True. Their govts. do not protect certain sectarian groups like ours in the biggest province and do not offer them dialogue sitting on the dead bodies of 50,000 of their military officers and civilians like ours in our northern province.


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## Argus Panoptes

Rafael said:


> True. Their govts. do not protect certain sectarian groups like ours in the biggest province and do not offer them dialogue sitting on the dead bodies of 50,000 of their military officers and civilians like ours in our northern province.



When companies makes decision about investing billions of dollars in business development (such as resource exploitation) they must keep in mind the long term stability prospects of the country. And that is where we fall far behind alternative that they might consider, in addition to the terrorism issues that you mention.


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## ejaz007

Jungibaaz said:


> No-one wants to invest in a nation where the security situation is helpless, where foreigners are literally hunted and killed, and it seems there's no place left in Pakistan where they cannot reach. No-one wants to operate in a nation where the infrastructure is so poor, where costs and external shocks to a private enterprise are so high. Furthermore, political instability makes everyone's future uncertain, Pakistan is also a likely candidate for possible sanctions.
> 
> Add all that up and more and you realize that none of those corporations in their right mind would want to come to Pakistan at a time like this.
> 
> 
> 
> I do agree in what you're saying that *IF* these corporations make it to Pakistan, they should be made to pay, but that is something again people will do if Pakistan offers them the right opportunity.
> 
> Let me also add, often you see, in the past major global players that did come to Pakistan did get massive tax breaks, huge cuts in red tape costs, that is because they managed to bribe the government officials they work with. There are some cases of where the government officials themselves offer the bribe, if the corporation don't take it, the officials refuse to co-operate. Add on another reason why Pakistan is not the right place.



Companies are working in countries with same or less ideal security situation than in Pakistan. They are not deterred by the security situation but by the profit margins and if right margins are allowed they shall come.

Security can be arranged not much of a problem. Companies in African and some middle eastern countries arrange their own security and are working fine.

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## Jungibaaz

Donatello said:


> If those same companies can work in hostile and unstable African states, why not Pakistan? The problem is there is no clear cut policy by the government. The officials in charge of negotiations have no technical know how. They just got there due to their political positions.



Those countries you name, take Nigeria for example. 
They have pools of oil that can be extracted easily and cheaply, there is money to be made. 
And as far as problems with Boko haram go, they aren't far off from where we are.

But it's worth the risk there, the oil isn't shale as it is in Pakistan. 
Every business person must conduct a cost benefit analysis, when you add on the fact that more and more shale reserves are being found elsewhere daily, and the fact that a shale boom is to tak place in the West.

No-one in their right mind would come to Pakistan unless all the issues are dealt with AND proper steps for less corruptiona dn market liberalization.



ejaz007 said:


> Companies are working in countries with same or less ideal security situation than in Pakistan. They are not deterred by the security situation but by the profit margins and if right margins are allowed they shall come.
> 
> Security can be arranged not much of a problem. Companies in African and some middle eastern countries arrange their own security and are working fine.



The African countries, how many of them are extracting from shale? 
Remember, Shale adds on a lot of costs, deters investment, those African couturiers aren't extracting from shale, it is far cheaper for those companies there.
And none of them face the multitude of problems faced here in Pakistan, the problems may be just as severe but take the energy crisis for example, that is a perfect way for a firm to begin eroding it's expected profits within a period of time.

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## RiazHaq

Jungibaaz said:


> Those countries you name, take Nigeria for example.
> They have pools of oil that can be extracted easily and cheaply, there is money to be made.
> And as far as problems with Boko haram go, they aren't far off from where we are.
> 
> But it's worth the risk there, the oil isn't shale as it is in Pakistan.
> Every business person must conduct a cost benefit analysis, when you add on the fact that more and more shale reserves are being found elsewhere daily, and the fact that a shale boom is to tak place in the West.
> 
> No-one in their right mind would come to Pakistan unless all the issues are dealt with AND proper steps for less corruptiona dn market liberalization.
> 
> 
> 
> The African countries, how many of them are extracting from shale?
> Remember, Shale adds on a lot of costs, deters investment, those African couturiers aren't extracting from shale, it is far cheaper for those companies there.
> And none of them face the multitude of problems faced here in Pakistan, the problems may be just as severe but take the energy crisis for example, that is a perfect way for a firm to begin eroding it's expected profits within a period of time.



Pakistan does have security challenges. But your assertion that "No-one in their right mind would come to Pakistan" is just plain wrong. There are hundreds of multi-nationals currently operating in Pakistan. 

In oil and gas sector, there's an entire association called "Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production Companies Association" with dozens of foreign member companies working in Pakistan now. 

Official Website of Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production


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## RiazHaq

Here's Pakistan existing energy infrastructure map:







Official Website of Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production


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## Jungibaaz

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan does have security challenges. But your assertion that "No-one in their right mind would come to Pakistan" is just plain wrong. There are hundreds of multi-nationals currently operating in Pakistan.
> 
> In oil and gas sector, there's an entire association called "Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production Companies Association" with dozens of foreign member companies working in Pakistan now.
> 
> Official Website of Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production



There are multinationals operating in Pakistan. 
That no-one in their right mind' thing was a figure of speech. 

The amount of FDI is entirely insignificant. 

My friend, sugar coating the truth doesn't stop it being bitter. 






And let me tell you what else, from 2010, FDI fell again in 2011 to around the $1 billion mark then again in 2012 to below the half a billion mark in USD terms. That is according to the world bank. 

Now that for a developing economy of total GDP over $200 billion with the pools of cheap labour and potential growth capability, is an absolutely pathetic figure. 

Say what you will, the figures speak for themselves.

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## RiazHaq

Jungibaaz said:


> There are multinationals operating in Pakistan.
> That no-one in their right mind' thing was a figure of speech.
> 
> The amount of FDI is entirely insignificant.
> 
> My friend, sugar coating the truth doesn't stop it being bitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And let me tell you what else, from 2010, FDI fell again in 2011 to around the $1 billion mark then again in 2012 to below the half a billion mark in USD terms. That is according to the world bank.
> 
> Now that for a developing economy of total GDP over $200 billion with the pools of cheap labour and potential growth capability, is an absolutely pathetic figure.
> 
> Say what you will, the figures speak for themselves.



Yes, overall FDI figures are down. 

Sector-wise, FDI has declined the most in telecom sector mainly because of delays in 3G licensing.

But FDI in oil ad gas sector has continued to be over half a billion dollars each year for many years:

2007-8 634.8	
2008-9 775.0	
2009-10 740.6	
2010-11 512.2
2011-12 629.4
2012-13 559.6

Foreign investment



Jungibaaz said:


> There are multinationals operating in Pakistan.
> That no-one in their right mind' thing was a figure of speech.
> 
> The amount of FDI is entirely insignificant.
> 
> My friend, sugar coating the truth doesn't stop it being bitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And let me tell you what else, from 2010, FDI fell again in 2011 to around the $1 billion mark then again in 2012 to below the half a billion mark in USD terms. That is according to the world bank.
> 
> Now that for a developing economy of total GDP over $200 billion with the pools of cheap labour and potential growth capability, is an absolutely pathetic figure.
> 
> Say what you will, the figures speak for themselves.



Yes, overall FDI figures are down. 

Sector-wise, FDI has declined the most in telecom sector mainly because of delays in 3G licensing.

But FDI in oil ad gas sector has continued to be over half a billion dollars each year for many years:

2007-8 634.8	
2008-9 775.0	
2009-10 740.6	
2010-11 512.2
2011-12 629.4
2012-13 559.6

http://www.pakboi.gov.pk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=180&Itemid=137


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## Pabbi

Why you people are so jealous.


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## RiazHaq

Here's a VOA report on China's growing footprint in Pakistan:

China is one of Pakistan&#8217;s largest business partners, and more than 120 Chinese companies are doing business in Pakistan. This is despite the serious security risks Chinese nationals face in Pakistan. 

During Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif&#8217;s visit last month to China, the two countries signed several economic agreements that give Pakistan much-needed foreign investment. China will also benefit, says Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation.

"China gains two things. Employment for its workers for a while on these projects and revenue from the projects for the companies. That&#8217;s the commercial side. On the political side, Pakistan does need power. It does need a more consistent power supply that will help Pakistan&#8217;s economy and social stability," said Scissors.

China is also seeking Pakistan&#8217;s cooperation in curbing the militants that China says use Pakistani territory to launch attacks in its restive Xinjiang, or East Turkestan, region.

Aqab Malik is with Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. 

"I think one of the foremost elements of this agreement is the understanding that Pakistan must combat, as far as China is concerned, the threat that is imposed from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement," said Malik.

Malik also says, in order to sustain long term economic growth, Pakistan must crack down on radicalism and extremism.

"Now [that] it has made economic agreements with China, there has to be some progress towards real counter-radicalization, counter-extremism programs, and there must be an off-the-fence, direct, stated goal that they are going to confront it. but actually implement it also," he said.

Anti-U.S. sentiments are high in Pakistan, and many see China as a counterweight to the United States as a trading partner. But relying too heavily on any one country may not be a good option for Pakistan. Derek Scissors:

"Diversification is good. It applies to the United States for Pakistan and it also applies to China. Being too heavily dependent on China would be a mistake," he said.

China-Pakistan bilateral trade was over $12 billion last year, and the leaders of the two countries have promised to increase it in years to come.

Chinese Economic Footprint in Pakistan Increasing


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## Samlee

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan's Energy Infrastructure Map
> 
> Haq's Musings: Why Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy-Rich Pakistan?



*Sir We May Not Need Non Conventional Gas Reserves We Have Conventional Ones.Zin Block Can Fulfil Our Needs For 100 Years*

&#8216;Zin Block can fulfil all of Pakistan&#8217;s energy needs for next 100 years&#8217; | The News Tribe

Also Tal Block Can Get Us Through For 30 Years


*Gas production likely to soar in Tal Block

By Muhammad Yasir 
*
KARACHI: Gas reserves and productions from two fields in the Tal Block are expected to increase around 300 mmcfd and 5 tcf by the end of 2008, sources in the energy sector told Daily Times here on Tuesday.

Geologists believe that gas production of these two fields would rise by 300 mmcfd (million metric cubic feet per day), separately with the ratio of 250 mmcfd and 50 mmcfd. The reserves of Tal Block have reached 2.5 tcf (trillion cubic feet) as per official statement issued by Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL), while geologists believed it will enhance to 5 tcf by the end of 2008.

Enhancing gas reserves and production of the country, the drilling project titled Manzilai Field Development Plan was conducted in Manzilai and Makori fields during the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Situating in NWFP near Kohat, Tal Block is currently producing 65 to 80 mmcfd gas. 

Energy analyst, Saad bin Ahmed said that the gas production of the Tal Block would be ranked as one of the largest gas producing fields of the country and it is one of its own types as a matter of fact that it will enhance its gas production substantially in short time period.

Pakistan has only six gas fields generating up to 300 mmcfd and it would be the seven major gas field that would also enhance overall gas production of the country for long time period, he added.

_*He further said that the gas production at Tal Block is likely to take the total gas reserves sufficient for over 30 years. Before this discovery, the country had gas reserves for 20-25 years. 
*_
In Taj Block gas reseves, Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) has 30 percent share, Pakistan Petroleum Limited posses 28 percent share and Pakistan Oilfield holds 25 percent stakes, while the remaining shares were divided among the operators MOL and government owner company GHPL. MOL is also the operator of the Tals field.

Pakistan has 103 various gas field reserves in different parts. The total gas reserved is estimated around 51 tcf gas on which 33 tcf is consumed. Sui, Boluchistan is the biggest gas-producing field having total estimated reserves of 12.6 tcf. It has consumed around 9.1 tcf since gas reserves discovered while 3.5 tcf reserves are remaining. This field generates 641 mmcfd as per first quarters figure. Mair and Qadirpur gas fields are the others biggest gas producing fields of the country with the production of 461 mmcfd 518 mmcfd


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## RiazHaq

Here's Daily Times on oil and gas drilling in 2012-13 in Pakistan:

Exploration and production drilling activities in financial year (FY) 2012-13 was the highest-ever development drilling in Pakistan as total 62 wells were drilled, up 82 percent on yearly basis, analysts said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile target of 105 wells for FY 2013-14 is modest and leaves room for improvement, said Fawad khan an analyst at Foundation Securities. 
Pakistan has achieved highest-ever development drilling with total 62 wells in FY 2012-13, registering 82 percent yearly increase. The sharp pickup in activity is driven primarily by private sector and should lead to modest increase in production, as most of the drilling is concentrated in low-yielding wells in Badin.
United Energy Group (UEG-Chinese exploration and production giant)) has emerged as the largest contributor to Pakistan drilling programme with over 43 percent drilling in FY 2012-13. Once again stratigraphic traps in Badin received huge focus on exploration. UEG efforts to unlock the potential in Badin block and new exploration leases are bearing fruits out of 17 exploration wells, UEG found hydrocarbons in at least 12 wells.
Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) are yet to touch their full potential on drilling activity. OGDC has drilled only 24 wells in FY 2012-13, up 41 percent on yearly basis, but still below start of the year drilling target of 29 wells.
Khan said available details on FY 2013-14 drilling suggest both PPL and OGDC have not set significantly higher drilling target. Total industry drilling target is set at 105 wells like FY 2012-13. UEG will lead drilling with 55-60 wells drilling programme.
Ongoing exploration in high profile Zin block (OGDC), exploration drilling in Tal at Kot (particularly POL) and complete results on exploration wells in Gambat South (PPL) can bring significant reserve and production upside.
A number of important development projects are slated to come online during FY 2013-14, which are important for materialisation of overall earnings and production targets. 
Khan particularly highlighted the Gas Processing Facility at Makori, development drilling in Makori East and Nashpa and progress on second phase production ramp-up on Kunnar Pasakhi Deep (KPD) field.
He estimated FY 2013-14 earnings growth for OGDC, PPL and POL of 36 percent, 28 percent and 32 percent driven by 15 percent, 6 percent and 11 percent volume growth respectively.
Despite a swift bidding round for 60 exploration leases following approval of 2012 E&P policy, actual award of leases has faced certain regulatory hiccups in certain cases. This can potentially delay the impact of new policy on drilling programme, which typically takes at least three years to materialise. Just to recap, 2012 policy offered 26percent, 100 percent higher oil/gas prices over 2001 policy pricing.
Government initially offered attractive conversion terms for areas under previous policies but later on changed certain conditions. Through award of 57 blocks, the government received minimum work commitment of $372 million.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan


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## Samlee

*Pakistan's Future in Oil & Gas
*
November 13, 2012 RECORDER REPORT 
The Oil and Gas sector in Pakistan has seen phenomenal growth since the independence in 1947 when oil quantities produced were scarce. These limited quantities were being produced from a few small fields located in the Potohar region. At that time was no gas production. 

Over the past half century the petroleum industry has played a significant role in national development by making large indigenous gas discoveries. Pakistan meets about 18% of its oil demand from local sources. The Government realising fully well that while a fiscal package with competitive incentives plays a vital role in attracting fresh investment an adequate protection of the companies' investment, is an essential prerequisite for the promotion of petroleum exploration in the country. This led to the enactment of the Foreign Investment Protection law of 1976 by the Parliament , under which the Government guaranteed full safeguard to foreign investments in Pakistan. 

Pakistan's presents economy growth rate shows that our energy needs will increase from 64.5 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (TOE), in 2010-11 to over 361.31 Million TOE in 2030. To overcome the projected needs of energy, major dependence will remain on the Oil & Gas sector. A total of 808 exploratory wells have been drilled so far in the sedimentary basins of Pakistan covering 827,267 Sq. Kms. Till 31st July 2012, 250 oil and gas fields (58 oil and 192 gas and gas/condensate) have been discovered in various basins of Pakistan with a success rate of 1:3.22. The remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas and oil are estimated at 26.6 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) and 341.9 Million US Barrels respectively. 

_*Large areas of Pakistan's petroliferous basins eg Offshore Indus Basin, Makran Basin & Balochistan Basin still remain as a geological frontier and hold promise for the future in view of the multiple havitats for petroleum generation and accumulation which may act as a game changer in energy self-sufficiency. Independent international studies indicate an oil and gas potential that is many times more than these proven reserves. This area is totally under-explored & exports believe that it has huge prospectus for oil & gas. Following steps are being taken to enhance the exploration of oil & gas in the country*_:- 

--- New Petroleum (Exploration & Production) Policy, 2012 will accelerate E & P activities and promote foreign direct investment in the oil & gas sector of Pakistan. 

--- Basin study has been completed to co-relate entire data of different basins. It would help to identify new play types and help in new discoveries & simultaneously increase in indigenous energy. 

--- Have state-of-the-art data repository centre-digitised data is available to existing and new companies to participate in exploration. 

--- For exploration of non-conventional hydrocarbons separate policies on Tight Gas, Low BTU, Low Pressure Flared (LPF) gas have been prepared. 

--- Completion of pending development projects-can and 400-500 MMCFD gas. At the current oil and gas production/consumption rate, the oil reserves can last for 11 years and gas for the 18 years. The government is thereof, besides making efforts to increase local supply has signed an agreement for import of gas from Iran. Additionally government is also considering different options of import of gas from Turkmenistan & Qatar and import of LNG to cope with the increase in demand.


Pakistan's Future in Oil & Gas | Business Recorder


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## Samlee

Here Is The Link To A Report By The National Institute Of Oceanography titled "Hydrocarbon Potential in The Makran Offshore Area".Read The Comments On Page 6

*"The Preliminary Results Obtained So Far Thus Indicate A Good Prospects For A Vast Energy Source In The Makran Offshore Area as It Is Estimated That The Total Amount Of Organic Carbon In Hydrate Gas Is Probably More Than Twice That In All Fossil Fuels On Earth"*

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2012/80218tabrez/ndx_tabrez.pdf



Samlee said:


> Here Is The Link To A Report By The National Institute Of Oceanography titled "Hydrocarbon Potential in The Makran Offshore Area".Read The Comments On Page 6
> 
> *"The Preliminary Results Obtained So Far Thus Indicate A Good Prospects For A Vast Energy Source In The Makran Offshore Area as It Is Estimated That The Total Amount Of Organic Carbon In Hydrate Gas Is Probably More Than Twice That In All Fossil Fuels On Earth"*
> 
> http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2012/80218tabrez/ndx_tabrez.pdf




According To Engro Energy Research Group Our Offshore Is Virtually Undiscovered

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-181287-Gas-pricing-exacerbates-energy-shortfall-Engro

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## darkinsky

Samlee said:


> Here Is The Link To A Report By The National Institute Of Oceanography titled "Hydrocarbon Potential in The Makran Offshore Area".Read The Comments On Page 6
> 
> *"The Preliminary Results Obtained So Far Thus Indicate A Good Prospects For A Vast Energy Source In The Makran Offshore Area as It Is Estimated That The Total Amount Of Organic Carbon In Hydrate Gas Is Probably More Than Twice That In All Fossil Fuels On Earth"*
> 
> http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2012/80218tabrez/ndx_tabrez.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According To Engro Energy Research Group Our Offshore Is Virtually Undiscovered
> 
> Gas pricing exacerbates energy shortfall: Engro - thenews.com.pk



if there is so much energy i dunno what we are doing drilling for gas in sindh we should move there establish oil rigs and we can meet out energy needs for centuries maybe?

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## RiazHaq

Net FDI in Pakistan up 76% from 2011-12 to 2012-13:
Net foreign direct investment into Pakistan rose 76 percent in the fiscal year 2012-13, which ended in June, reaching $1.447 billion compared to previous year, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan.
Between July and June, there was an inflow of $2.653 billion and outflow of $1.205 billion, according to the central bank. In the same period the year earlier, there was an inflow of $2.099 billion and outflow of $1.278 billion.
During June this year, net foreign direct investment rose to $128 million compared to $56 million a year earlier.
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan


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## Samlee

darkinsky said:


> if there is so much energy i dunno what we are doing drilling for gas in sindh we should move there establish oil rigs and we can meet out energy needs for centuries maybe?




Read Page 4 Of This Report By Nepra

*' Prognostic potential of total endowment of hydrocarbons has been estimated as 27 billion barrels of oil and 282 trillion cubic feet of gas.'*

http://www.nepra.org.pk/Publications/State%20of%20Industry%20Reports/State%20of%20Industry%20Report%202007.pdf

_Aaj Key Liye Kafi Hai Ke Aur Dil Jalaoon Tera_


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## darkinsky

Samlee said:


> Read Page 4 Of This Report By Nepra
> 
> *' Prognostic potential of total endowment of hydrocarbons has been estimated as 27 billion barrels of oil and 282 trillion cubic feet of gas.'*
> 
> http://www.nepra.org.pk/Publications/State%20of%20Industry%20Reports/State%20of%20Industry%20Report%202007.pdf
> 
> _Aaj Key Liye Kafi Hai Ke Aur Dil Jalaoon Tera_



bhai mera dil q jaley ga, ager itna he tu bhai pehley fursat me oil aur gas nikalna chahye makran offshore se q nahi nikalte?


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## Samlee

darkinsky said:


> bhai mera dil q jaley ga, ager itna he tu bhai pehley fursat me oil aur gas nikalna chahye makran offshore se q nahi nikalte?



Wo Is Liye Bahi Jab Hamare Mulk Me Ronaq Lage Gi To Bohat Sare Mulkon Ki Ronaqen Ujar Jae Gi Kya Samjhe.Anyway Here Is another Article.This Is About Indus Offshore

*Pakistan Offshore Hydrocarbon Prospective*


. General Introduction of Pakistan Offshore: Offshore Pakistan which stretches over 200,000 Sq.kms can be divided into two major units: the Indus Offshore Basin and the Makran Offshore Basin. These two units are separated by the Murray Ridge and the Owen Fracture Zone which form a transition Zone/plate boundary between the two. 

The Indus Basin covers the second largest fan in the world after the Bengal fan. The Indus Fan is located in Pakistan and Indian Coast between 160 to 24*. North latitude and 60* to 73* East longitude. It is about 1500 km in length (from the North until it present delta front in the Indian Ocean) and 960 Kms in width (from the India continental shelf to the East to the Owen shear zone to the West). At the thicker part in the basin, the fan is estimated to be about 10 kms, thick. The Indus Fan is cut in the south-eastern corner by a submarine canyon of the River Indus that is 2,900 Kms. long. Presently 14 exploration blocks are being held by E & P companies in offshore area of Pakistan. The details of exploratory wells drilled in Offshore Area are also provided in Table-2 below. Past petroleum exploration efforts in Indus Delta are limited to drilling of only 12 exploration wells. The details of past drilling efforts are indicative of the fact that Indus Basin is highly under explored. Of these wells, only one ie Pakean-1 tested 3.7 MMSFCD in a DST pointing towards presence of movable hydrocarbons in Indus Fan. _*Moreover Indus basin is analogous to other producing basins of the world in terms of geological setting such as Mississippi Delta, (Gulf of Mexico, USA ), Niger Delta (Nigeria), Mahakam Delta (Indonesia) Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and Gippslan Basin (Australia) etc*_. 

2. Hydrocarbon Potential of Pakistan Offshore 

2.1 Reservoir Rocks: With sparse well penetrations, little is known about the reservoir potential. In the upper section (mid Miocene and above) giant channel levee systems are seen on the seismic, which represent the canyon-channel system of the ancient Indus Fan and having degradational to aggradational behavior and seismic facies. The reason why these channels are so large is probably because of the high discharge from the Indus River and because of accommodation space being created by movement along the Murray fracture. High amplitude chaotic reflectors which could be good target for excellent quality sands. High Amplitude Reflection Packages (HARP) can also be seen at the base of the channel levee systems. In the Amazon delta these HARP's have been penetrated and are known to be high net to gross sheet sands. On seismic data, amalgamated channels with good sand development are quite evident. Low relief mounding is observed and the presence of amplitude anomalies points to the presence of channel and sheet sands. Mud diaper cored anticline particularly in the proximity of Murray Ridge are also seen on seismic data with multiple amplitude anomalies pointing towards good reservoir sand development in Indus Delta. 

2.2 SEALS: Offshore shelf wells show that the Indus delta is mud rich and the large levee systems seen on seismic confirm this. Extensive quiet zones in Miocene sequence are interpreted to be thick blanket shales which are expected to provide an excellent seal. 

2.3 SOURCE: Source rock may be present, but their lateral extent and organic facies is not known. Miocene deltaic sediments are considered to have potential for gas in the offshore. Geochemical modelings by a number of companies suggest that good source rocks could be developed in the Paleocene / Eocene, Gas-prone source rocks are identifiable in the Miocene in shelf wells; whether they are present in the deep offshore is uncertain. 

2.4 MATURITY/TIMING: Major burial occurred post -18 million years consistent with Himalayan collision and deltaic loading Paleocene/Early Eocene source rocks is likely to be hydrocarbon generation window. Substantial thickness of Mid-Miocene source rocks is also expected to generate and expel hydrocarbon from 8-10 million years. The timing of trap formation is generally earlier than the maturity of the source rocks. The anticlinal traps show growth as well as channel traps and other stratiographic features were most likely formed immediately after deposition.


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## Argus Panoptes

Samlee said:


> *Wo Is Liye Bahi Jab Hamare Mulk Me Ronaq Lage Gi To Bohat Sare Mulkon Ki Ronaqen Ujar Jae Gi *Kya Samjhe.Anyway Here Is another Article.This Is About Indus Offshore
> 
> .................



How does our prosperity destroy anybody else's prosperity? It is not a zero sum game.


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## RiazHaq

Here's Daily Times on a TRL refinery planned for Pakistan:

KARACHI: Trans-Asia Refinery Ltd (TRL) has made a major announcement expressing its &#8216;total commitment&#8217; to building the most complex refinery in Pakistan, producing more than 100,000 barrels a day and 4.0 million tonnes of petroleum products every year. The refinery will be located at Port Qasim, Karachi. 

In a major boost to the country&#8217;s economy, TRL signalled the end of previous delays with an undertaking that &#8216;the investors have decided to push the project forward in the interests of all parties and the people of Pakistan&#8217;.

TRL&#8217;s determination to see the project through to completion is demonstrated by two important initiatives announced yesterday. First is the appointment of Descon to undertake a complete &#8216;health check&#8217; inspection of the TRL refining equipment. The second is a newly-completed restructuring of TRL management to ensure the project proceeds with all possible haste.
TRL CEO Sultan Al Ghurair said he was delighted to have Descon on board in order to develop the project further. Descon is the leading engineering and construction company of Pakistan. The company said that, since the refinery had been delayed for some time, they will perform a health check of critical equipment before the EPC contractor is finalised.

The TRL project is a direct investment of Al-Ghurair Investment LLC, a UAE-based family conglomerate and one of the most diverse industrial groups in the Middle East. As the majority shareholder, Al Ghurair will play an important role in the future supply of fuel to the nation of Pakistan.

When completed, the TRL Refinery will annually produce 80,000 tonnes of LPG, 455,000 tonnes of Naphtha, 410,000 tonnes of motor gasoline, 422,000 tonnes of jet fuel, 1,000,000 tonnes of gas oil &#8211; from which 630,000 tonnes will be treated diesel &#8211; 1,050,000 tonnes of fuel oil and 200,000 tonnes of bitumen. All the products of the refinery are in high demand in Pakistan.
The TRL refinery will create at least 350 direct jobs and several thousand indirect job opportunities for Pakistani workers. Ghurair said: &#8220;Our parent company and major shareholder, Al Ghurair Investment LLC, has always been about creating long-lasting relationships - and TRL is committed to carrying on that tradition. Al Ghurair looks forward to playing a part in the future prosperity of Pakistan and its people - and the TRL refinery is proof of that commitment.&#8221;

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan


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## alimohsan52

Pakistan needs to start using all its natural resources


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## Kompromat

*Gift of God to Pakistan. Shale gas is	&#8220;natural gas that is found trapped within shale formations." In the US, the	&#8216;shale gas revolution&#8217;has already begun. In 2000, shale gas was a paltry one percent of US	natural gas production. Currently, around 25 percent of US natural gas production is shale gas and within the next 20 years 50 percent of	the US&#8217; natural gas supply will come from shale gas.*

As of December 2011,Pakistan&#8217;s proved reserves of natural gas stood at around 30 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). According to a State Bank of Pakistan report,&#8220;Pakistan is left with only 50 percent natural gas reserves as high consumption in different sectors has exhausted 50 percent of the overall reserves of 54 Tcf by financial year of 2011-12.&#8221; Pakistan, as per the SBP, has &#8220;sufficient reserves to last just over 20 years.&#8221;

Gift of God to Pakistan. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an agency of the US Federal Statistical System, Pakistan has 586 Tcf of &#8220;risked shale gas in-place.&#8221;	For	Pakistan, that is 400 years worth of gas supply. Of the 586 Tcf, *Pakistan&#8217;s &#8220;technically recoverable shale gas resource is estimated at 105 Tcf.&#8221; For Pakistan, that is 73 years worth of gas supply.*

Gift of God to, Pakistan. According to the EIA, Pakistan has 227 billion barrels of risked shale oil in-place. For	Pakistan, that is 1,700 years worth of oil supply. Of the 227 billion barrels, *Pakistan&#8217;s	&#8220;technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 9.1 billion.&#8221; For Pakistan, that is 68 years worth of crude oil supply.*

The two shale formations have already been identified: the Sembar Shale formation and the Ranikot Shale formation. Within the Sembar Shale, dry gas in 31,320 square miles, wet gas in 25,560 square miles and oil in 26,700 square miles. Within the Ranikot Shale, oil in 26,780 square miles, 4 Tcf of wet shale gas and 3.3 billion barrels of shale oil.

Pakistan has the ninth largest shale oil reserves on the face of the planet. This gift of God can be a game-changer &#8211; abundant, cheap source of energy. Shale gas and oil assets have a life cycle-exploration, appraisal, development, production and rejuvenation. The critical processes involved are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. The disciplines involved include geo-mechanics, geochemistry, mineralogy, rock mechanics, seismology and stimulation modelling.

Uncle Sam has all the secrets. And Uncle Sam is not opening up the secrets behind shale fracturing fluids, chemical management, hydraulic fracturing, multi-stage fracturing, directional well drilling, steerable down-hole drill motors and horizontal walls. Then there is the all-important risk management; drinking water well contamination and surface water contamination.

Uncle Sam has his secrets but according to Arshad Abbasi, Pakistan&#8217;s foremost energy-sector expert, Pakistan has guar or cluster bean &#8211; the essential ingredient in the shale gas fracturing process. For the record, Pakistan	and	India	produce over 80 percent of global guar production &#8211; and that is so because guar loves the &#8220;sun and is very susceptible to frost&#8221;.

*What we need is shale technology. A one-point agenda with Uncle Sam. We need to &#8216;think about future generations because if we don&#8217;t they&#8217;ll never forget us&#8217;.*

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@************. Twitter: @Saleemfarrukh


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## Argus Panoptes

@Aeronaut that "Gift from God" will lie sleeping under the ground for many years yet without any benefit to us.

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## Devil Soul

*Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil*
KHALEEQ KIANI
ISLAMABAD: In a major development, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American federal authority on energy statistics and analysis, has estimated fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and more than nine billion barrels of oil in Pakistan.

These estimates of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are many times larger than so far proven reserves of 24 TCF for gas and about 300 million barrels for oil. Pakistan currently produces about 4.2 billion cubic feet of gas and about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.

A government official said the new estimates appeared to be &#8216;very very encouraging&#8217; but it had not been shared with the government of Pakistan. He said the shale gas had seen tremendous developments in the United States and a couple of other countries were trying to use the latest technology. Pakistan, he said, was also encouraging exploration and production companies to venture into the fresh horizon.

According to a June 2013 estimates of the EIA based on surveys conducted by Advanced Resources International (ARI), a total of 1,170 TCF of risked shale gas are estimated for India-Pakistan region --584 TCF in India and 586 TCF in Pakistan.

In case of Pakistan these estimates are backed by proven studies and verified technical data &#8220;The risked, technically recoverable shale gas resource is estimated at 201 TCF, with 96 TCF in India and 105 TCF in Pakistan,&#8221; said the EIA.

The EIA also estimated risked shale oil in place for India/Pakistan of 314 billion barrels, with 87 billion barrels in India and 227 billion barrels in Pakistan. &#8220;The risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 12.9 billion barrels for those two countries, with 3.8 billion barrels for India and 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan,&#8221; the EIA said.

The southern and central Indus basins are located in Pakistan, along border with India and Afghanistan which are bounded by the Indian shield on the east and highly folded and thrust mountains on the west.

The lower Indus basin has commercial oil and gas discoveries in the Cretaceous-age Goru Fm sands plus additional gas discoveries in shallower formations. The shales in the Sembar Formation are considered as the primary source rocks for these discoveries.

The EIA said that while oil and gas shows have been recorded in the Sembar Shale on the Thar Platform, no productive oil or gas wells have yet been drilled into the Sembar Shale.

About the resource assessment, the EIA said that within 31,320 sq miles of dry gas prospective area, the Sembar Shale in the lower Indus basin had a resource concentration of 83 billion cubic feet per square mile. Within the 25,560 square mile wet gas and condensate prospective are, the Sembar shale has resource concentration of 57 BCF per sq. miles of wet gas and nine million barrels per square mile of condensate. Within the 26,700 square miles oil prospective area, the Sembar Shale has a resource concentration of 37 million barrels per square mile.
Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil - DAWN.COM

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## RiazHaq

Devil Soul said:


> *Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil*
> KHALEEQ KIANI
> ISLAMABAD: In a major development, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American federal authority on energy statistics and analysis, has estimated fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and more than nine billion barrels of oil in Pakistan.
> 
> These estimates of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are many times larger than so far proven reserves of 24 TCF for gas and about 300 million barrels for oil. Pakistan currently produces about 4.2 billion cubic feet of gas and about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.
> 
> 
> Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil - DAWN.COM



So the Pakistani media finally found out about it....more than two months after I blogged about it. 

Haq's Musings: US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels

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## Argus Panoptes

RiazHaq said:


> So the Pakistani media finally found out about it....more than two months after I blogged about it.
> 
> Haq's Musings: US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels



So with these "vast shale gas and oil reserves" and the "hugest coal despots in Thar" and the "mountains full of gold and copper in Reko Dik" we should be all set for the new few centuries.

Rejoice! Celebrate!

(May be not.)


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## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> So with these "vast shale gas and oil reserves" and the "hugest coal despots in Thar" and the "mountains full of gold and copper in Reko Dik" we should be all set for the new few centuries.
> 
> Rejoice! Celebrate!
> 
> (May be not.)



Your point being?


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## pk_baloch

*Poora Balochistan aik Bullet Train K Peechy CHina K Hawaly.
*







*Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines...Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies*

WASHINGTON: While major world mining and investment companies are preparing to invest big time, big money in Balochistan, specially in the mining sector, suspicions and doubts that the biggest gold mine of Reko Diq may be quietly handed over to China as part of the growing economic ties are also coming to the fore.



Official and business circles have been wondering for some time what will happen to the multi-hundred billion dollar Reko Diq gold and copper mines after the world&#8217;s largest mining company, Barrick Gold of Canada, was thrown out of Pakistan by the Supreme Court of Pakistan during the PPP regime.



But after the recent visit of high level government delegation to China and a flurry of quick MoUs and super-paced exchange of visits, an important leader from Balochistan, former Senator Sana Baloch has alleged publicly that the government has promised these mines to China in a year or so.



While the Government leaders strongly denied any deal or any promise made during the Beijing visit, an official Pakistan Government statement assuring that the Reko Diq mines will be given to the highest bidder in an international tender is still awaited.



Meanwhile as the wait continues, world mining companies are expecting and waiting for Pakistan to float international the tenders inviting bids for Reko Diq and some are ready to offer more than $100 billion in 30 to 35 years, insiders of the mining industry say.



The ousted Barrick Gold had promised less than a billion a year in 56 years but they never shared what they had found during the many years of exploration they did in Reko Diq. What is generally believed is that Reko Diq is bigger than Afghan Aynak mines which were estimated by President Karzai at over $3 trillion.



Sana Baloch&#8217;s charge has come amid a frenzy of shuttle economic activity between Islamabad and Beijing. A top level economic delegation led by Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman National Development and Reforms Commission (NRDC) is in Islamabad today and was asked by Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal to raise ceiling of Chinese investments in Pakistan to $10 billion from present $3 billion.



The government has been speaking about Chinese investments of between $18 to $20 billion in Gwadar-Kashgar Highway, the bullet train and Lahore-Karachi Motorway in the coming years but what is not yet been explained is how the Chinese will be repaid for these investments.



One form of repayment is now being suspected in the form of handing over the $300 billion plus Reko Diq mines to China on the pattern of the Saindak Copper mines, at almost a throw-away price.



Senator Sana Baloch has made this allegation: &#8220;Chinese authorities were assured of getting the world&#8217;s richest copper-gold deposit, Reko-Diq, by next year &#8211; again without following international transparent norms.&#8221; &#8220;Shady deals in the name of brotherly relations have deprived the people of Balochistan of any benefits they can get from these resources. Not a single contract has ever been made public,&#8221; the angry senator from Balochistan says. &#8220;I repeatedly requested details of agreements and contracts signed during the Musharraf regime, but to no avail.&#8221;



The Reko Diq issue is awaiting a decision in the international arbitration forums where the Canadian Barrick Gold has filed cases against Pakistan for compensation. These cases may be decided in a few months and involve only a few million dollars but the world mining market is preparing seriously for bidding for the mines in a big way as these companies realize that Reko Diq offers billions of dollars of profits and financial opportunity for the host country.



In one such case, three weeks back the Delloite Finance Corporation of Canada, the single largest professional services organization in the world in 2010, issued a Letter of Interest, through its mining division, to an American mining company preparing for the big tender in a joint venture with a major Australian capital markets investment organization which has at least 10 world class mining companies ready to bid for Reko Diq.



Experts fear that if the Government did not opt for a transparent international tender for Reko Diq, hundreds of billions of dollars may be lost in the coming years just like the Saindak Copper mines where Pakistan did not benefit significantly as General Musharraf first gave the mines to China and then extended the deal for another five years.



No details of what Pakistan gained are available as against the potential and the promises that were made but Senator Sana Baloch says Gwadar, Saindak, the Duddar Lead-Zinc project and several other such deals are a complete mystery for the common Baloch.



He says the multi-billion copper-gold Saindak project is being extracted, without any monitoring in the past 10 years by a Chinese company. &#8220;According to official reports, copper-gold worth $633.573m was extracted during 2004-08. The Balochistan government received a paltry two percent share, while half the profits go to Beijing and 48 percent to Islamabad,&#8221; he says in an article sent to The News. (see page-6)



For Reko Diq the Supreme Court, although in a veiled reference, guided the Government of Balochistan to hold an international tender like the one held in Afghanistan&#8217;s Anyak Copper deposit.



In the Afghan tender, supervised by the World Bank, eight international companies from many countries had contested. It was globally reported that a Chinese company allegedly tried to bribe a Minister in Afghanistan paying him $30 million but was caught.



Experts say if for an investment of up to $20 billion over the next 20 years, the Chinese are handed over the multi-hundred billion Reko Diq mines, in a non-transparent manner, it would be the greatest open and shut robbery and treachery with the country.

*http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-Ne...says-deal-offered-to-China;-government-denies

*

By getting what is its right, Pakistan can build many motorways and bullet trains on its own, provided the rulers keep the national interest in mind, says one mining expert.
@Talon @Zarvan @zaki @Aeronauts @RiazHaq @darkinsky @Spring Onion @Devil Soul @Menace2Society @shan @Nassr [MENTION=139145] @Samlee @RazPaK [MENTION=2412] @Raja.Pakistani @cb4 @Abu Zolfiqar @Jazzbot @Leader @SHAMK9 [MENTION=139145] AND OTHERS

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## Bilal.

Reko diq should be developed locally with extraction and smelting done in house. We should not allow it to be handed over to anyone.


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## farhan_9909

Some major updates and more discoveries again by EIA

Pak shale gas reserves updated are 105tcf not 51tcf anymore

in short of whole of the south asia pakistan hold more than 60% of the total shale gas and oil reserves




> *Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil*
> KHALEEQ KIANI
> *ISLAMABAD: In a major development, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American federal authority on energy statistics and analysis, has estimated fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and more than nine billion barrels of oil in Pakistan.
> *
> These estimates of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are many times larger than so far proven reserves of 24 TCF for gas and about 300 million barrels for oil. Pakistan currently produces about 4.2 billion cubic feet of gas and about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.
> 
> A government official said the new estimates appeared to be &#8216;very very encouraging&#8217; but it had not been shared with the government of Pakistan. He said the shale gas had seen tremendous developments in the United States and a couple of other countries were trying to use the latest technology. Pakistan, he said, was also encouraging exploration and production companies to venture into the fresh horizon.
> 
> *According to a June 2013 estimates of the EIA based on surveys conducted by Advanced Resources International (ARI), a total of 1,170 TCF of risked shale gas are estimated for India-Pakistan region --584 TCF in India and 586 TCF in Pakistan.
> *
> *In case of Pakistan these estimates are backed by proven studies and verified technical data &#8220;The risked, technically recoverable shale gas resource is estimated at 201 TCF, with 96 TCF in India and 105 TCF in Pakistan,&#8221; said the EIA.
> *
> _*The EIA also estimated risked shale oil in place for India/Pakistan of 314 billion barrels, with 87 billion barrels in India and 227 billion barrels in Pakistan. &#8220;The risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 12.9 billion barrels for those two countries, with 3.8 billion barrels for India and 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan,&#8221; the EIA said.
> *_
> The southern and central Indus basins are located in Pakistan, along border with India and Afghanistan which are bounded by the Indian shield on the east and highly folded and thrust mountains on the west.
> 
> The lower Indus basin has commercial oil and gas discoveries in the Cretaceous-age Goru Fm sands plus additional gas discoveries in shallower formations. The shales in the Sembar Formation are considered as the primary source rocks for these discoveries.
> 
> The EIA said that while oil and gas shows have been recorded in the Sembar Shale on the Thar Platform, no productive oil or gas wells have yet been drilled into the Sembar Shale.
> 
> About the resource assessment, the EIA said that within 31,320 sq miles of dry gas prospective area, the Sembar Shale in the lower Indus basin had a resource concentration of 83 billion cubic feet per square mile. Within the 25,560 square mile wet gas and condensate prospective are, the Sembar shale has resource concentration of 57 BCF per sq. miles of wet gas and nine million barrels per square mile of condensate. Within the 26,700 square miles oil prospective area, the Sembar Shale has a resource concentration of 37 million barrels per square mile.
> Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil - DAWN.COM


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> Your point being?



The point is that all these "feel good" stories of mineral riches are useless because they are so far from reality.


----------



## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> The point is that all these "feel good" stories of mineral riches are useless because they are so far from reality.



Far from reality as in far from being exploited and would require many years to mature or not real at all?


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## ssethii

So the west is trying to tell us that Iran-Pak gas pipeline project will go down the drain?


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> Far from reality as in far from being exploited and would require many years to mature or not real at all?



Some resources will take many years to exploit with expertise and finances we do not have, some resources being claimed are simply not as large or exploitable, some are simply not real.

All such claims are ridiculous in their periodic regularity and their consistent futility.



ssethii said:


> So the west is trying to tell us that Iran-Pak gas pipeline project will go down the drain?



Why blame the West? Our own government has not signed any final contracts with Tadbir Energy for the portion of the IP pipeline within Pakistan. We simply do not have the money.


----------



## ssethii

Argus Panoptes said:


> Why blame the West? Our own government has not signed any final contracts with Tadbir Energy for the portion of the IP pipeline within Pakistan. We simply do not have the money.



Isn't energy on top of the priority list of this Govt?


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## Argus Panoptes

ssethii said:


> Isn't energy on top of the priority list of this Govt?



Priority "lists" mean nothing without the resources to carry them out.


----------



## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> Some resources will take many years to exploit with expertise and finances we do not have, some resources being claimed are simply not as large or exploitable, some are simply not real.



-we did not have capabilities to exploit natural gas on our own when it was discovered in 50s but it was attained eventually. Same would be the case now.

-claims of size are being made by professional organisation based on hard data, do we have data to prove otherwise?

-there are bankable feasibility studies, should we believe that or some hypothesis?


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## ssethii

Argus Panoptes said:


> Priority "lists" mean nothing without the resources to carry them out.



I think it's not just about the resourses.
If Pakistan could bear western pressure India might join the league and China is not that Far away.


----------



## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> -*we did not have capabilities to exploit natural gas on our own when it was discovered in 50s but it was attained eventually.* Same would be the case now.
> 
> -claims of size are being made by professional organisation based on hard data, do we have data to prove otherwise?
> 
> -there are bankable feasibility studies, should we believe that or some hypothesis?



Sirjee, exploitation of the Sui gas field was funded by the USSR, World Bank, Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and the Asian Development Bank. We did not do it on our own.


----------



## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> Sirjee, exploitation of the Sui gas field was funded by the USSR, World Bank, Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) and the Asian Development Bank. We did not do it on our own.



The finances were found non the less and payed off to national economy many times over. It's importance in our economic development thus far cannot be understated either. So I still don't get the point.


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> The finances were found non the less and payed off to national economy many times over. It's importance in our economic development thus far cannot be understated either. So I still don't get the point.



The point is this: WE HAVE NO MONEY. We can get something done if and only if someone else pays for it. Like Iran. Or China. Or IMF. Or Saudi Arabia. Or ADB. Right now, no one is agreeing to fund any such projects on our list.


----------



## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> The point is this: WE HAVE NO MONEY. We can get something done if and only if someone else pays for it. Like Iran. Or China. Or IMF. Or Saudi Arabia. Or ADB. Right now, no one is agreeing to fund any such projects on our list.



All projects are executed through financing, that's how modern world works, it nothing unusual. You said no one is ready to finance these projects? May I ask for a source for this claim? With the exception of Thar coal rejection by ADB( or was it WB) due to pollution concerns but there are always alternatives. In any case, I am glad that you do agree that the resources are present and once the financing issue is resolved, we can start reaping benefits.


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> All projects are executed through financing, that's how modern world works, it nothing unusual. You said no one is ready to finance these projects? May I ask for a source for this claim? With the exception of Thar coal rejection by ADB( or was it WB) due to pollution concerns but there are always alternatives. In any case, I am glad that you do agree that the resources are present and once the financing issue is resolved, we can start reaping benefits.



I said some resources are present. For example, here is the reality about our Thar coal:



niaz said:


> Just heard on TV that Minister of Petroleum said that proposed 6000 Power Generating Complex at Gadani will based on imported coal and that Thar Coal cannot be used as fuel for power generation.
> 
> It appears that our so called 85-billion ton coal deposit will remain under ground for ever. Our hopes for future riches from Thar Coal down the drain!!!





Argus Panoptes said:


> Our Thar coal is simply of too poor a quality to be used for power generation, all 85 billions tons of it. The hopes attached to Thar coal were always a mirage.


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## Panther 57

Interesting discussion. Thar coal is unexplored not because of financing but oil cartel. How difficult it is to float shares of a public limited company and gather funds. Anyone in todays era will be ready to buy shares in an energyventure. Just will to do and forego personal gains from OMCs


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## Argus Panoptes

Panther 57 said:


> Interesting discussion. Thar coal is unexplored not because of financing but oil cartel. How difficult it is to float shares of a public limited company and gather funds. Anyone in todays era will be ready to buy shares in an energyventure. Just will to do and forego personal gains from OMCs



Thar coal is unexplored because of its poor quality.


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## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> I said some resources are present. For example, here is the reality about our Thar coal:



The thar coal cannot be exploited due to lack of infrastructure needed to mine that area at the moment. There a "bankable feasibility studies" in support of thar coal with due respect to what Mr. Minister said, you do understand what bankable feasibility study means?


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> The thar coal cannot be exploited due to lack of infrastructure needed to mine that area at the moment. There a "bankable feasibility studies" in support of thar coal with due respect to what Mr. Minister said, you do understand what bankable feasibility study means?



Thar coal will remain unexploited because of its POOR QUALITY.


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## Bilal.

Sir, please lookup the definition of bankable feasibility study, I would rather believe extensive study based on hard data instead of one man's opinion.

http://www.google.ae/?gws_rd=cr#fp=6205812e68b45e2a&q=bankable+feasibility+study+thar+coal


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> Sir, please lookup the definition of bankable feasibility study, I would rather believe extensive study based on hard data instead of one man's opinion.



So this one company called RPI conducted this feasibility study:

http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/mediablo...-services/Thar-Bankable-Feasibility-Study.pdf

where they state:



> RPI defined the concept for *a 1,000MW power plant specifically for the climatic conditions and the lack of water in the Thar desert.
> *
> The best solution was* a dry-cooled power plant fired with dry lignite, produced at an associated drying plant, with integrated recovery of the evaporated water for use as boiler makeup water and supplemented cooling water.* The coal demand was then determined on the basis of the tested coal heating values and the installed capacity of the power plant. Based on the anticipated coal demand for the power plant, *RPI designed an opencast mine and determined the most economical option from three different applicable mining technologies.* Finally an environmental and social base line study was set up to provide references for future mining operations.
> 
> *The difference we made*
> 
> The integrated expertise of RPI in mining, thermal power generation and lignite drying permitted the development of an integrated mining and power generation concept for a lignite deposit in a remote and arid location. It has the potential to be economic under the specific conditions of the electricity market in Pakistan.
> 
> *Findings*
> 
> RPI provided the exploration drilling, the exploration study, the geological modelling, the coal reserve estimation and calculation,
> the mine modelling and design, the assessments of mechanical and electrical equipment, the assessments of mine infrastructure, the economic evaluation of the mine, the assessments of environmental and social aspects and the efficiency bankable feasibility study.



So what does that actually do to make someone finance the whole project? NOTHING.


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## Bilal.

That's because this is not the complete study, it's just a 2 page document summarising their finding, in actuality that drilled 30 holes with a commulative 6000 meters depth. The study is in conformance with JORC(Joint Ore Reserve Committee) standard. They won't share a complete study which they spent millions on.


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> That's because this is not the complete study, it's just a 2 page document summarising their finding, in actuality that drilled 30 holes with a commulative 6000 meters depth. The study is in conformance with JORC(Joint Ore Reserve Committee) standard. They won't share a complete study which they spent millions on.



Yes, but what they propose is a 1000MW dry-cooled power plant, that nobody is willing to finance so far. Why? Because the investment is simply not worth it compared to the alternatives.


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## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> Yes, but what they propose is a 1000MW dry-cooled power plant, that nobody is willing to finance so far. Why? Because the investment is simply not worth it compared to the alternatives.



Actually, it's because it requires HT transmission line to be set up till thar. No one would setup a plant without grid connectivity. As I said it's a bankable feasibility study backed by hard data following international standards not our hypothesis out of thin air. I tend to lean towards hard data instead of hypothesis.


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> Actually, it's because it requires HT transmission line to be set up till thar. No one would setup a plant without grid connectivity. As I said it's a bankable feasibility study backed by hard data following international standards not our hypothesis out of thin air. I tend to lean towards hard data instead of hypothesis.



Fair enough, but actual RESULTS trump all. Where are the results?


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## Bilal.

Argus Panoptes said:


> Fair enough, but actual RESULTS trump all. Where are the results?



in due time. Developing infrastructure in thar will take time but based on "hard data" we know that the reserves are there and viable and this "fact" based on "bankable feasibility studies" is undeniable.


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## Kompromat

@pk_baloch

Nothing is 'given' to the Chinese. They bring the investment and explore the reserves, the Balochistan govt will get the royalties and the agreed sum of money for the reserves. If it happens, transparently - nothing wrong with it!


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## Argus Panoptes

Bilal. said:


> in due time. Developing infrastructure in thar will take time but based on "hard data" we know that the reserves are there and viable and this "fact" based on "bankable feasibility studies" is undeniable.



Okay, I will accept your position for now. Let's see how and when these resources will ever be exploited. They are not going anywhere.

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## Zarvan

pk_baloch said:


> *Poora Balochistan aik Bullet Train K Peechy CHina K Hawaly.
> *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines...Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies*
> 
> WASHINGTON: While major world mining and investment companies are preparing to invest big time, big money in Balochistan, specially in the mining sector, suspicions and doubts that the biggest gold mine of Reko Diq may be quietly handed over to China as part of the growing economic ties are also coming to the fore.
> 
> 
> 
> Official and business circles have been wondering for some time what will happen to the multi-hundred billion dollar Reko Diq gold and copper mines after the worlds largest mining company, Barrick Gold of Canada, was thrown out of Pakistan by the Supreme Court of Pakistan during the PPP regime.
> 
> 
> 
> But after the recent visit of high level government delegation to China and a flurry of quick MoUs and super-paced exchange of visits, an important leader from Balochistan, former Senator Sana Baloch has alleged publicly that the government has promised these mines to China in a year or so.
> 
> 
> 
> While the Government leaders strongly denied any deal or any promise made during the Beijing visit, an official Pakistan Government statement assuring that the Reko Diq mines will be given to the highest bidder in an international tender is still awaited.
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile as the wait continues, world mining companies are expecting and waiting for Pakistan to float international the tenders inviting bids for Reko Diq and some are ready to offer more than $100 billion in 30 to 35 years, insiders of the mining industry say.
> 
> 
> 
> The ousted Barrick Gold had promised less than a billion a year in 56 years but they never shared what they had found during the many years of exploration they did in Reko Diq. What is generally believed is that Reko Diq is bigger than Afghan Aynak mines which were estimated by President Karzai at over $3 trillion.
> 
> 
> 
> Sana Balochs charge has come amid a frenzy of shuttle economic activity between Islamabad and Beijing. A top level economic delegation led by Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman National Development and Reforms Commission (NRDC) is in Islamabad today and was asked by Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal to raise ceiling of Chinese investments in Pakistan to $10 billion from present $3 billion.
> 
> 
> 
> The government has been speaking about Chinese investments of between $18 to $20 billion in Gwadar-Kashgar Highway, the bullet train and Lahore-Karachi Motorway in the coming years but what is not yet been explained is how the Chinese will be repaid for these investments.
> 
> 
> 
> One form of repayment is now being suspected in the form of handing over the $300 billion plus Reko Diq mines to China on the pattern of the Saindak Copper mines, at almost a throw-away price.
> 
> 
> 
> Senator Sana Baloch has made this allegation: Chinese authorities were assured of getting the worlds richest copper-gold deposit, Reko-Diq, by next year  again without following international transparent norms. Shady deals in the name of brotherly relations have deprived the people of Balochistan of any benefits they can get from these resources. Not a single contract has ever been made public, the angry senator from Balochistan says. I repeatedly requested details of agreements and contracts signed during the Musharraf regime, but to no avail.
> 
> 
> 
> The Reko Diq issue is awaiting a decision in the international arbitration forums where the Canadian Barrick Gold has filed cases against Pakistan for compensation. These cases may be decided in a few months and involve only a few million dollars but the world mining market is preparing seriously for bidding for the mines in a big way as these companies realize that Reko Diq offers billions of dollars of profits and financial opportunity for the host country.
> 
> 
> 
> In one such case, three weeks back the Delloite Finance Corporation of Canada, the single largest professional services organization in the world in 2010, issued a Letter of Interest, through its mining division, to an American mining company preparing for the big tender in a joint venture with a major Australian capital markets investment organization which has at least 10 world class mining companies ready to bid for Reko Diq.
> 
> 
> 
> Experts fear that if the Government did not opt for a transparent international tender for Reko Diq, hundreds of billions of dollars may be lost in the coming years just like the Saindak Copper mines where Pakistan did not benefit significantly as General Musharraf first gave the mines to China and then extended the deal for another five years.
> 
> 
> 
> No details of what Pakistan gained are available as against the potential and the promises that were made but Senator Sana Baloch says Gwadar, Saindak, the Duddar Lead-Zinc project and several other such deals are a complete mystery for the common Baloch.
> 
> 
> 
> He says the multi-billion copper-gold Saindak project is being extracted, without any monitoring in the past 10 years by a Chinese company. According to official reports, copper-gold worth $633.573m was extracted during 2004-08. The Balochistan government received a paltry two percent share, while half the profits go to Beijing and 48 percent to Islamabad, he says in an article sent to The News. (see page-6)
> 
> 
> 
> For Reko Diq the Supreme Court, although in a veiled reference, guided the Government of Balochistan to hold an international tender like the one held in Afghanistans Anyak Copper deposit.
> 
> 
> 
> In the Afghan tender, supervised by the World Bank, eight international companies from many countries had contested. It was globally reported that a Chinese company allegedly tried to bribe a Minister in Afghanistan paying him $30 million but was caught.
> 
> 
> 
> Experts say if for an investment of up to $20 billion over the next 20 years, the Chinese are handed over the multi-hundred billion Reko Diq mines, in a non-transparent manner, it would be the greatest open and shut robbery and treachery with the country.
> 
> *Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines...Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies - thenews.com.pk
> 
> *
> 
> By getting what is its right, Pakistan can build many motorways and bullet trains on its own, provided the rulers keep the national interest in mind, says one mining expert.
> @Talon @Zarvan @zaki @Aeronauts @RiazHaq @darkinsky @Spring Onion @Devil Soul @Menace2Society @shan @Nassr [MENTION=139145] @Samlee @RazPaK [MENTION=2412] @Raja.Pakistani @cb4 @Abu Zolfiqar @Jazzbot @Leader @SHAMK9 [MENTION=139145] AND OTHERS



What I know is if Oil is found in Pakistan and that too in really large numbers soon man we can get billions of dollars and from that we can improve our economy and build our Armed Forces by getting huge number of J-10 B and JF-17 Block 2 with some other plane and also Frigates and Submarines and if Reko diq is being given to China which I don't think so we can get hell of weapons from China in return and also investment in economy


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## Panther 57

> Thar coal is unexplored because of its poor quality



Pakistan is blessed with immense amount of natural resources including 18th largest coal reserve in the world. It has a deposit of approximately 175 billion MT of coal. Though this coal is of lower grade but does have calorific value of 10,000BTU per MT (on dry basis). Its calorific value is approximately 945 trillion BTU. Converting this amount in terms of US$ gives indicative figures of US$ 3.78 trillion this coal is more than combined oil of Iran and Iraq . By a safe estimate Iran and Iraq combined have 251 billion barrels of crude, which is equal to approximately 38 billion MT. Crude has BTU value of 19000 PMT which gives total calorific value of 722 trillion BTU, worth approximately US$2.725 trillion. Estimated energy requirement of Pakistan is approximately 1.5 trillion BTU per year. It is evident through simple calculations as to how many years energy requirement can be met through this low grade coal available in Thar. Liquification or gasification of this coal can reduce the burden of importing oil and save Pakistan a trade deficit of approximately US$35-40billion per year . 

In today's era of high technology solutions to such problems can be developed. Had this not been true, then there would have been no requirement of Thar Coal Development Authority. Dr Samar is working on the project, but is facing extreme difficulties in securing funds. Development of Thar coal will take away Pakistan from the shackles of OMCs, which will effect illicit source of income for many high ranking officials also, therefore, it is discouraged at every step. 

So far environmental concern goes, emissions by humans is much less a pollutant , then the nature itself. Going into this is an altogether a different discussion.

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## Panther 57

> The ousted Barrick Gold had promised less than a billion a year in 56 years but they never shared what they had found during the many years of exploration they did in Reko Diq. What is generally believed is that Reko Diq is bigger than Afghan Aynak mines which were estimated by President Karzai at over $3 trillion.



Reko Diq has an estimated deposit of 12.9 million tones of copper and 20.9 million ounces of gold. Gold deposit alone can be assessed to US$17.765 billion. It is estimated that total deposit is worth US$65 billion. Besides the main Reko Diq, there are another 14 porphyries having an estimated total deposit of 500million tons. These national assets should be re-possessed and mining work be undertaken by the government on pattern of commercial organisation. Gold extracted can build the base of State Bank to change its monetary policy from Inflation Targeting to Gold Standard thus getting rid of inflation. Copper can help getting rid of Pakistan debt, if at all it needs to be paid. (This deposit was handed over to BHP Billiton in 1993 and later sold to another company ship changed to Australian Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) and the Chilean Copper Company Antofagasta, with Balochistan government having 25% share.) 

From this reserve approximately 100,000 ounces of gold can be extracted each year. Pakistan should look into the aspect of mining this gold itself. Professionals should be hired to run the operation and funds should be generated by floating shares to only people of Pakistan. Gold explored should be bought at controlled rate (say 10% less than market rate) by government of Pakistan. To convert this asset into immediate benefit, Pakistan should shift its focus from multicurrency based exchange rate to gold based. Thus, value of PKR will improve in international market. In just five years Pakistan will be able to strengthen its currency and bring it at par with strongest international currency, hence bringing prosperity to common man. This exploration business will provide dividends to the shareholders and strengthen PKR in international market; while creating employment for local resources, thus reducing influx of people in metropolises for employment opportunities and giving a sense of belonging/ security to the locals.

All tough Gins by environmentalist should be set aside and national interest should be kept paramount.


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## Zarvan

Aeronaut said:


> @pk_baloch
> 
> Nothing is 'given' to the Chinese. They bring the investment and explore the reserves, the Balochistan govt will get the royalties and the agreed sum of money for the reserves. If it happens, transparently - nothing wrong with it!



Man do we really have oil and if yes along with GOLD if explored and sold to other countries man we can become a military power in with in few years because only problem we have is economy issues


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## Jazzbot

pk_baloch said:


> *Poora Balochistan aik Bullet Train K Peechy CHina K Hawaly.
> *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines...Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies*




I shared it yesterday http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...ch-senator-says-deal-offered.html#post4700855 but it didn't catch much attention. However, a very sad move, Pakistan should explore these reserves on its own to gain maximum profile.

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## Argus Panoptes

Jazzbot said:


> I shared it yesterday http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...ch-senator-says-deal-offered.html#post4700855 but it didn't catch much attention. However, a very sad move, *Pakistan should explore these reserves on its own to gain maximum profile*.



We have neither the expertise nor the money to exploit these reserves on our own.

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## ziaulislam

it should have been given though international bidding to highest bidder followed with joint venture with local companies..govt shouldnt get it hands messed or it will become like sandick
what happened in sandick was that it was earning 20 billion but losing 30 billion!
just like pakistan steel mills that has posted 80 billion lossess
had it been privitzed back in 2008 for 26 billion (51% shares only) today we would have saved 200-300 billion in direct lossess and 5 times of that in indirect lossess by running the stells mills these days at min levels
not only this we we also lost those 26 billion rupees

until we decide to go to liberal economy , we should just wish of being a better ecnomy


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## niaz

I heard Mr Aftab Hussain MD & CEO of Pakistan Refinery on TV. He was asked about the supposedly 105 TCF shale gas reserves.

His comments implied that these are only Guesstimate. A lot more ground work and actual drilling is required before one assess Recoverable reserves with some certainty. 

Mr Aftab Hussein is quite right; a number in a US journal does not necessarily means it is the absolute truth.

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## Kompromat

Shale extraction underway in Nixon Texas.


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## Kompromat

How does fracking work?


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## RiazHaq

niaz said:


> I heard Mr Aftab Hussain MD & CEO of Pakistan Refinery on TV. He was asked about the supposedly 105 TCF shale gas reserves.
> 
> His comments implied that these are only Guesstimate. A lot more ground work and actual drilling is required before one assess Recoverable reserves with some certainty.
> 
> Mr Aftab Hussein is quite right; a number in a US journal does not necessarily means it is the absolute truth.



Aftab Husain is in refinery business, not exploration. His opinion is not based on any knowledge about shale geology and assessment of oil and gas reserves. Opinions of US EIA experts are much more reliable in this regard.

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## RiazHaq

A news story in Pakistan's Express Tribune claims that US EIA estimates of Pakistan shale oil and gas reserves are "exaggerated".

Hold your barrels: EIA report


I find such claims by journalists and the people they quote totally ridiculous.

Their opinion is not based on any knowledge about shale geology and methods of assessment of oil and gas reserves.

Americans know more about shale oil and gas based on actual experience of the ongoing shale revolution in America. 

Opinions of US EIA experts are much more reliable in this regard.

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## niaz

RiazHaq said:


> A news story in Pakistan's Express Tribune claims that US EIA estimates of Pakistan shale oil and gas reserves are "exaggerated".
> 
> Hold your barrels: EIA report
> 
> 
> I find such claims by journalists and the people they quote totally ridiculous.
> 
> Their opinion is not based on any knowledge about shale geology and methods of assessment of oil and gas reserves.
> 
> Americans know more about shale oil and gas based on actual experience of the ongoing shale revolution in America.
> 
> Opinions of US EIA experts are much more reliable in this regard.




Honourable Sir,

It is ironic that while we consider that case against Afia Siddiqui was concocted because it went against our perception of the reality; we consider EIA (another institution of the great Satan, the USA) guesstimate about shale gas as the &#8216;Ultimate&#8217; truth because it suits us.

Appreciate your enthusiasm, but you must be aware that one needs to analyse geological data and drill a few holes before coming up with realistic estimates. It has never been denied that Pakistan has tight & shale gas potential; only question is how much is actually there?

There is little doubt that EIA know more about these things that anyone else. Nevertheless Herald Tribune article correctly points out that PPL is the only company that has done any work on estimating Shale oil & gas potential in Pakistan thru actual testing. It is simply for the sake of good order that we should wait until further tests for determining extent of the shale & tight gas reserves are carried out before we start jumping with joy.

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## Kompromat

niaz said:


> Honourable Sir,
> 
> It is ironic that while we consider that case against Afia Siddiqui was concocted because it went against our perception of the reality; we consider EIA (another institution of the great Satan, the USA) guesstimate about shale gas as the &#8216;Ultimate&#8217; truth because it suits us.
> 
> Appreciate your enthusiasm, but you must be aware that one needs to analyse geological data and drill a few holes before coming up with realistic estimates. It has never been denied that Pakistan has tight & shale gas potential; only question is how much is actually there?
> 
> There is little doubt that EIA know more about these things that anyone else. Nevertheless Herald Tribune article correctly points out that PPL is the only company that has done any work on estimating Shale oil & gas potential in Pakistan thru actual testing. It is simply for the sake of good order that we should wait until further tests for determining extent of the shale & tight gas reserves are carried out before we start jumping with joy.



Sir shouldn't there be a distinction between, a lie infested political power trip and a fact based scientific study?

Why cant we carry out our own studies on the shale reserves to verify the EIA estimates?

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## Bilal.

Opinions, opinions, opinions... That's what we are good at, instead of scientific and quantifiable data we are inclined towards hearsay and opinions.


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## Argus Panoptes

Aeronaut said:


> Sir shouldn't there be a distinction between, a lie infested political power trip and a fact based scientific studies?
> 
> *Why cant we carry out our own studies on the shale reserves to verify the EIA estimates?*



We simply do not have the expertise to do so. Remember the Thar Coal Gasification project launched by Dr. Mand? That is all we have, people working outside their areas of knowledge and expertise. Same thing with shale reserves.


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## niaz

I have always been a supporter of UCG project. It was an innovative venture and was always starved of funding. The project has been partially successful but need a lot more work. Unfortunately genuine research and innovation, which was hall mark of the Muslims until the 13th century, has been left to West ever since. We only follow the path already experimented and proven by the infidel scientists of the West. That is why so few Noble Prize winners, especially in the Sciences are found in the Muslim world. 

I am convinced that given more funding & time UCG project will manage to deliver.

Unlike UCG which is a technology that has never been fully established, thanks to the pioneering work by people like G. Mitchell, hydraulic fracking is now a fully established technology.

Standard way of determining petroleum reserves is to drill a few exploratory wells and analyse the core samples for the extent and thickness of the pay-zone. As mentioned in the said article, Pakistan Petroleum ltd (PPL) did the same in one well in the Hala block and the results were encouraging.

However, Shale has low natural permeability, which means that, unless hydraulically fractured, gas flows out at a very low rate and how much of the shale gas can be extracted comes down to guesswork. Therefore a lot more work is needed before one can be sure of the size and recovery percentage of Shale gas reserves in Pakistan.

In my humble opinion; for what it is worth; exploration without fracking would only provide limited geological information about the shale or tight gas resource. Therefore assuming vast riches without test wells and at least partial fracking is not way of the wise.

However I am just one voice, nation is welcome to presume whatever she will.

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## Bilal.

Exactly, research based projects should not be discouraged. They are always looked at with suspicion by people of established order.


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## Edevelop

5 huge reserves of oil and gas discovered in Badin during one year


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## Kompromat

cb4 said:


> 5 huge reserves of oil and gas discovered in Badin during one year



Any details? - scientific data?

Our media is notorious for exaggerating these sort of news.

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## Hyperion

"Barray" in Urdu is a relative term.... does not translate exactly to "huge" nor does it mean "medium", it's something towards medium, however, not exactly. Media needs to be sanctioned from making such stupid comments, and announce all such discoveries in volumetric terms only. There should be a "anti-stupidity" legislation for abuse of mass-media. 



Aeronaut said:


> Any details? - scientific data?
> 
> Our media is notorious for exaggerating these sort of news.

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## Kompromat




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## niaz

Understand US has already become world s foremost Oil & Gas producer. Total production of US is currently in the region of about 22-million barrels per day of oil equivalent.

US overtaking Russian oil and gas production | MINING.com 

US overtakes Russia & Saudi Arabia in oil/ natural gas production in 2013


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## Kompromat

*Pakistan&#8217;s misguided energy policy*

By Laique Rehman 

Sunday, October 20, 2013

*Power projects rely on costly imported fuel oil, imported coal and now plans are underway for importing high price natural gas or LNG at a multiple of the money paid for domestic gas. The country will be a lot better off to raise the current price paid for domestic gas so as to open up new fields for development. *

History has shown that countries that develop their indigenous natural resources against all odds even at high economic costs are the eventual winners. Our recent history has shown the development of presumably economically unfeasible North Sea oil project paid rich dividends to the nations of Northern Europe several times over. Shale gas until some years ago was considered uneconomical or unfeasible and today it is being hailed as the greatest miracle of the 21st century that is going to place USA again as the global leader of economic growth and bring a manufacturing renaissance to US economy. 

Unlike many countries Pakistan is rich in natural resources and successive government after 1969 have not put their will or resources towards developing them. 

At 183 billion metric tonnes, Pakistan has the largest untapped coal reserves in the world. In terms of BTU Pakistan&#8217;s coal reserves can be compared to Saudi oil reserves. Most countries like China, Germany, USA and others fulfill about 50 percent or more of their energy needs through coal. Critics of developing Pakistani coal should know that Thar coal is lignite similar that found in Texas or North Dakota in US, or that used in Germany or Mongolia. Pakistan&#8217;s coal is superior to coal used by many countries. It is true that lignite coal is the lower quality coal because of this cannot be exported and has to be used for power generation. The advantage of lignite coal is it can also be used for Petrochemical Production like it is being used in China for production of methanol, olefins and PVC. 

According to EIA maps below Pakistan and China are the only countries in Asia with heavy concentration of Shale. 

China&#8217;s shale gas concentrations are located inland and far away from water, which makes their production more expensive at least double that of US at $4.0 per MMBTU. Pakistan&#8217;s shale concentration is at the South East region of the country and close to water. Also it must be noted shale gas development initially carried out in US was not by US majors but by small and mid-size companies. Today only US companies have the experience of developing shale gas. 

Pakistan does not have the manufacturing base of countries like South Korea or Japan to rely on running the economy based on imported fuels. Economic development of a country is tied to energy costs, today power costs in Texas are around 3.5 cents per KWh versus 10 cents in Thailand, 7.0 in Indonesia and 12 cents in India. One of the reasons for cheap power costs in Texas is our free market policies unlike those of countries in Europe which rely on the green solutions like solar, wind and bio. 

In summary Pakistan is lucky to have indigenous resources like hydro, coal, gas (both conventional and unconventional) plus access to nuclear. The new incoming government needs to show their will in developing their indigenous energy resources instead of looking for aid to import more oil. The incoming administration needs to go after Thar coal project, hydropower, gas and shale gas development with the same determination that was shown by Ayub Khan government in developing sui gas, Mangla Dam and Tarbela Dam more than 40 years ago.


Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan


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## Kompromat

*Govt seeks US help for, Shale oil, gas exploration

Khalid MustafaSaturday, November 09, 2013

ISLAMABAD: Islamabad intends to seek from help from the US for the exploration of gas reserves, as well as credit lines for the construction of the Diamer-Basha dam, top officials of the ministries of petroleum and natural resources told The News.
*

The officials said that technical help is being sought for reliable oil and gas reserves assessment along with technology and expertise to exploit shale gas reserves. Pakistan is also to seek cooperation in installing the coal based power projects, funding for improving the transmission system and improving the efficiency of the Gencos and Discos.

Aid is also being sought to fund the $ 1.4 billion 1250 kilometers long pipeline from Karachi to Lahore, as well as the participation of *US companies in the Joint Ventures with public sector entities to accelerate the exploration and production activities in Pakistan.*

*According to EIA (Energy Information Administration)* — American federal authority on energy statistics and analysis, *Pakistan is estimated to have fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and more than nine billion barrels of oil in Pakistan.*

*These estimates of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are many times larger than so far proven reserves of 24 TCF for gas and about 300 million barrels for oil. Pakistan currently produces about 4.2 billion cubic feet of gas and about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.*


“*Shale gas had seen tremendous developments in the United States* and a couple of other countries were trying to use the latest technology. *Pakistan was also encouraging exploration and production companies to venture into these fresh horizon*,” the officials said

*A high level delegation headed by Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Mr Shahid Khaqan Abbasi comprising managing directors of OGDCL, PPL, PSO, Sui Southern and Sui Northern will hold the talks with US authorities in Washington and Houston from November 12th on cooperation in energy sector. Another delegation of energy officials led by Minister of Water and Power Khawaja Asif will also travel to Washington for similar discussions.*


*Pakistan also wants to lay a separate gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore which will carry imported LNG to cater to the country’s dire energy needs. The LNG will first be transformed into natural gas then it will be transported to Punjab through the said pipeline.*


The existing gas infrastructure has the capacity to carry additional 250 mmcfd under swap arrangements. Therefore the government plans to import 2 billion cubic feet of LNG per day in the next two and a half years, with 200-400 mmcfd to arrive by November 1, 2014.

US help is also sought in installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) to curtail the volume of unaccounted for gas (UFG) and also to help in providing precious details about gas pressure at the point where meters will be installed.

*In Sui Southern, one percent UFG has been curtailed to 9.9 from 10.9 percent which means Rs 1.2 billion has been saved.* However, UFG stands at the higher side in the system of Sui Northern at over 11 percent. One percent UFG in Sui Northern system means the loss of Rs 2 billion.

In addition, the government will also seek the technical know from US in the ongoing rehabilitation of the gas infrastructure being carried out in the wake of the gas leakage survey in the Sui southern system. That’s likely to come to about $ 20 million.

*“We will also seek the US expertise in discovery the huge resources of shale gas, tide gas and coal bed methane in Pakistan,” *the official said and added saying that US companies are 40 year ahead of any developing country’s companies in terms of service delivery and expertise in discovery of shale gas and other minerals.

*He said that OGDCL and PPL will seek the US companies in joint ventures for exploring gas both in onshore and off shore fields.*

Govt seeks US help for Basha, shale gas exploration - thenews.com.pk


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## Umair Nawaz

Aeronaut said:


> *Govt seeks US help for, Shale oil, gas exploration
> 
> Khalid MustafaSaturday, November 09, 2013
> 
> ISLAMABAD: Islamabad intends to seek from help from the US for the exploration of gas reserves, as well as credit lines for the construction of the Diamer-Basha dam, top officials of the ministries of petroleum and natural resources told The News.
> *
> 
> The officials said that technical help is being sought for reliable oil and gas reserves assessment along with technology and expertise to exploit shale gas reserves. Pakistan is also to seek cooperation in installing the coal based power projects, funding for improving the transmission system and improving the efficiency of the Gencos and Discos.
> 
> Aid is also being sought to fund the $ 1.4 billion 1250 kilometers long pipeline from Karachi to Lahore, as well as the participation of *US companies in the Joint Ventures with public sector entities to accelerate the exploration and production activities in Pakistan.*
> 
> *According to EIA (Energy Information Administration)* — American federal authority on energy statistics and analysis, *Pakistan is estimated to have fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and more than nine billion barrels of oil in Pakistan.*
> 
> *These estimates of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves are many times larger than so far proven reserves of 24 TCF for gas and about 300 million barrels for oil. Pakistan currently produces about 4.2 billion cubic feet of gas and about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.*
> 
> 
> “*Shale gas had seen tremendous developments in the United States* and a couple of other countries were trying to use the latest technology. *Pakistan was also encouraging exploration and production companies to venture into these fresh horizon*,” the officials said
> 
> *A high level delegation headed by Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Mr Shahid Khaqan Abbasi comprising managing directors of OGDCL, PPL, PSO, Sui Southern and Sui Northern will hold the talks with US authorities in Washington and Houston from November 12th on cooperation in energy sector. Another delegation of energy officials led by Minister of Water and Power Khawaja Asif will also travel to Washington for similar discussions.*
> 
> 
> *Pakistan also wants to lay a separate gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore which will carry imported LNG to cater to the country’s dire energy needs. The LNG will first be transformed into natural gas then it will be transported to Punjab through the said pipeline.*
> 
> 
> The existing gas infrastructure has the capacity to carry additional 250 mmcfd under swap arrangements. Therefore the government plans to import 2 billion cubic feet of LNG per day in the next two and a half years, with 200-400 mmcfd to arrive by November 1, 2014.
> 
> US help is also sought in installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) to curtail the volume of unaccounted for gas (UFG) and also to help in providing precious details about gas pressure at the point where meters will be installed.
> 
> *In Sui Southern, one percent UFG has been curtailed to 9.9 from 10.9 percent which means Rs 1.2 billion has been saved.* However, UFG stands at the higher side in the system of Sui Northern at over 11 percent. One percent UFG in Sui Northern system means the loss of Rs 2 billion.
> 
> In addition, the government will also seek the technical know from US in the ongoing rehabilitation of the gas infrastructure being carried out in the wake of the gas leakage survey in the Sui southern system. That’s likely to come to about $ 20 million.
> 
> *“We will also seek the US expertise in discovery the huge resources of shale gas, tide gas and coal bed methane in Pakistan,” *the official said and added saying that US companies are 40 year ahead of any developing country’s companies in terms of service delivery and expertise in discovery of shale gas and other minerals.
> 
> *He said that OGDCL and PPL will seek the US companies in joint ventures for exploring gas both in onshore and off shore fields.*
> 
> Govt seeks US help for Basha, shale gas exploration - thenews.com.pk


Not Good Not Good.


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## Kompromat

Umair Nawaz said:


> Not Good Not Good.



Why not? Please enlighten us.


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## Umair Nawaz

Aeronaut said:


> Why not? Please enlighten us.


American companies r not good.. Russian Companies should have been there or even turkish.
Let me give a an Indian example;; They found some natural reserves in their country and they launched a tender for extraction lot of American companies were interested but they chose to give to a small Polish company from who they got the transfer of technology and now they r extracting Gold and other resources from Afghanistan!!!

These American Companies will just loot our minerals and will give a puny share rather these r the sources on whom Pak has biggest right. Let not forget that Baluch Goldmine Scam. Seems to me that recent Ganja visit to America has made this happen behind closed doors and he would have earned personal benefits.


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## Kompromat

Umair Nawaz said:


> American companies r not good.. Russian Companies should have been there or even turkish.
> Let me give a an Indian example;; They found some natural reserves in their country and they launched a tender for extraction lot of American companies were interested but they chose to give to a small Polish company from who they got the transfer of technology and now they r extracting Gold and other resources from Afghanistan!!!
> 
> These American Companies will just loot our minerals and will give a puny share rather these r the sources on whom Pak has biggest right. Let not forget that Baluch Goldmine Scam. Seems to me that recent Ganja visit to America has made this happen behind closed doors and he would have earned personal benefits.




Hang on, calm down. No other nation except the US has the technology needed to extract Shale reserves - does that help you?


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## Umair Nawaz

Aeronaut said:


> Hang on, calm down. No other nation except the US has the technology needed to extract Shale reserves - does that help you?


R we getting TOT then?

Afterall these r big shale oil reserves.


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## fatman17

*Jura announces gas discovery in Pakistan*
February 18, 2014
By PennEnergy Editorial Staff
Source: Jura Energy Corporation

Jura Energy Corporation ("Jura") (TSX:JEC) today announced a gas and condensate discovery at the Ayesha-1 exploration well in the Badin IV South block.

The Ayesha-1 well was completed in the 'B' Sands of the Lower Goru Formation of Cretaceous age. During a short test on 32/64 inch choke, the well flowed gas with a heating value of approximately 1,000 Btu/Scf at a rate of 11.34 MMcf/d and a wellhead flowing pressure of 1,998 psi. The condensate to gas ratio was in the range of 10-12 bbl/MMcf with minimal water cut production. Detailed testing of Ayesha-1 will continue over the next few days.

Anticipated future production from the Ayesha-1 discovery is expected to be entitled to a gas price of US$6 per MMBtu under PakistanΓÇƒs Petroleum (Exploration & Production) Policy, 2012.

Shahid Hameed, CEO of Jura, commented on the Ayesha-1 test results saying: "We are delighted with the successful test results. Given Ayesha-1's proximity to existing processing and pipeline infrastructure, this commercial discovery could be brought into production on a fast-track basis. Our Badar and Guddu fields are already in production and first gas production is anticipated from Zarghun South in the first half of 2014."

The drilling rig has now been released from Ayesha-1 and mobilized for the drilling of another exploration well, Haleema-1, in the Badin IV South block. The drilling of Haleema-1 is expected to commence in the first week of March 2014.

Jura holds a 27.5% working interest in the Badin IV South block, which is operated by Petroleum Exploration (Pvt) Limited.

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## Amaa'n

badin, Jabo, Khaskhli, Tando Ala Yar, this block is very rich, worked for one of the operators in the region


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## Kompromat

*Pakistan to witness increased exploration activity in 2014*
*07 February, 2014*



KARACHI: As far as exploration and production (E&P) sector is concerned, 2014 will be the year of renewed focus on exploration activity in zones I and II while the incentives offered in the new E&P Policy 2012 and low British thermal unit (BTU) gas policy will spur activity in the country, said an analyst.

KASB Scurrilities' analyst said in a report on Thursday that oil and gas stocks yielded solid results in 2013, and while we enter 2014 with some concerns over oil prices, there are enough stock-specific catalysts to keep the bears away. In terms of exploration activities, 2013 turned out to be a dull year for E&P companies. Tal block exploration drilling continued its successful journey (Makori East III), while overall exploration activity remained dull.

In terms of stock performance, Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) underperformed by 5.0 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, in complete year (although posting a very decent return on a standalone basis as the market rose by a whopping 49 percent), while Pakistan Oilfields (POL) underperformed by a margin of 35 percent. The analyst believed three key themes will play out in 2014 such as exploration activity picking up in zones I and II, timely completion of key development projects and shale oil and gas policy.

Pakistan is an energy deficit country and around 27 percent of total energy requirements are being met through imports, with demand expected to grow substantially in coming years. Low BTU gas policy will spur activity in the country, as it meets demand for higher realised prices for both oil and gas by exploration companies, said the analyst.

The government will also focus on timely delivery of development timelines on existing as well as newly discovered fields. Some of the projects were redesigned for early production (KPD, Sinjhoro, Mela, Naspha, Uch, Sara West, Tal, Zin and Jhal Magsi), while work on other projects accelerated.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Pakistan was estimated to have fresh recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 trillion cubic feet and more than 9.0 billion barrels of oil.* The government has started to work on shale gas policy and is conducting studies to evaluate the full potential of the shale oil and gas reserves. The analyst believed an attractive policy will be announced this year so that full throttle exploration could start by the fourth quarter of 2014, the analyst added.*

End.

Pakistan to witness increased exploration activity in 2014 - PakTribune


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## Missile

The ministry of petroleum and natural resources Friday signed the Exploration Licenses (ELs) and Petroleum Concession Agreements (PCAs) in eight blocks with the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) for exploring oil and gas resources in the country.

The total area of aforesaid blocks is 16,117.09 sq km and minimum firm work commitment is US $ 49.58 million. Apart from minimum work commitment, companies are obligated to spend a minimum of US $ 30,000/year in each block on social welfare schemes.

The ministry has already signed 12 exploration license (EL)/Petroleum Concession Agreement (PCA) to explore hydrocarbon resources. On the occasion, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said these license were awarded for four blocks including Block No. 2562-1 (Pasni West), 3070-16 (Pezu) , 2970-6 (Alipur), and 2870-7 (Khanpur) with OGDCL, three for block No. 2566-4 (Hab), 2467-13 (Malir) and 2467-16 (Shah Bandar) with PPL and one for block No. 3371-16 (Peshawar East) with MPCL.

He said the government was giving high priority to exploration and production sector to exploit and develop indigenous hydrocarbon resources to abridge the oil and gas demand supply gap.

Eight oil and gas exploration licenses signed | Pakistan Today

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## niaz

fatman17 said:


> *Jura announces gas discovery in Pakistan*
> February 18, 2014
> By PennEnergy Editorial Staff
> Source: Jura Energy Corporation
> 
> Jura Energy Corporation ("Jura") (TSX:JEC) today announced a gas and condensate discovery at the Ayesha-1 exploration well in the Badin IV South block.
> 
> The Ayesha-1 well was completed in the 'B' Sands of the Lower Goru Formation of Cretaceous age. During a short test on 32/64 inch choke, the well flowed gas with a heating value of approximately 1,000 Btu/Scf at a rate of 11.34 MMcf/d and a wellhead flowing pressure of 1,998 psi. The condensate to gas ratio was in the range of 10-12 bbl/MMcf with minimal water cut production. Detailed testing of Ayesha-1 will continue over the next few days.
> 
> Anticipated future production from the Ayesha-1 discovery is expected to be entitled to a gas price of US$6 per MMBtu under PakistanΓÇƒs Petroleum (Exploration & Production) Policy, 2012.
> 
> Shahid Hameed, CEO of Jura, commented on the Ayesha-1 test results saying: "We are delighted with the successful test results. Given Ayesha-1's proximity to existing processing and pipeline infrastructure, this commercial discovery could be brought into production on a fast-track basis. Our Badar and Guddu fields are already in production and first gas production is anticipated from Zarghun South in the first half of 2014."
> 
> The drilling rig has now been released from Ayesha-1 and mobilized for the drilling of another exploration well, Haleema-1, in the Badin IV South block. The drilling of Haleema-1 is expected to commence in the first week of March 2014.
> 
> Jura holds a 27.5% working interest in the Badin IV South block, which is operated by Petroleum Exploration (Pvt) Limited.




Cretaceuous zone means that deposits are roughly at about 4,000 ft depth only. BTU value of 1,000/cft indicates that it is almost entirely methane and condensate at 10 -12 bbls per million cft implies that its lean dry gas field. If the size of the reservoir is anywhere near 1-TCF; it is very good news indeed.

However this not tight/shale gas field.

Reactions: Positive Rating Positive Rating:
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## Kompromat

WASHINGTON, March 6 (APP): Pakistan’s sustainable development depends on energy security through a long-term focus on exploiting indigenous water, solar and shale gas sources, a leading Pakistani-American business leader said. Mossadaq Chughtai, a prominent Virginia-based entrepreneur, said Pakistan should encourage investment in shale oil and gas exploration and seek U.S. technological cooperation to harness its massive reserves as part of efforts to meet its exponential energy requirements. With 220 billion barrels of oil and 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, Pakistan possesses huge reserves. Therefore, Pakistan must go for exploitation of the vast gas source to fuel its economy and achieve energy security, he said in an interview.

Chughtai, who is also associated with Council on Pakistan Relations, remarked that exploitation of shale gas would not only provide inexpensive gas but also bring energy independence to Pakistan for decades to come. In this respect, he cited the example of the United States, where shale gas production has grown from one percent to over 20 percent in a matter of a decade and has reduced American dependence on foreign energy sources.He said Washington should help Pakistan which is a key player n the economic integration and security of the region - in building large water reservoirs and hydel power projects like Diamer Bhasah dam.

Associated Press Of Pakistan ( Pakistan's Premier NEWS Agency ) - Pakistani-American business leader urges shale gas exploitation for energy security


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## niaz

Mr Chughtai may be a brilliant and dynamic entrepreneur but his quoted figures of 220 billion barrels of oil and 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas appear to be an example of ‘Wishful thinking’ in the extreme.

As someone who knows a little bit about Oil & Gas industry; I have no faith in the exaggerated numbers quoted in the Pakistani press reports. The most recent study that I came across ( as of June 2013) about Shale oil & gas resources of the world is:

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/overview.pdf

You will notice that “UNPROVED” estimates of shale oil recoverable reserves for Pakistan are given as 105 TCF for shale gas and 9-billion barrels for shale oil; a far cry from the numbers attributed to Mr Chughtai. Even these also have to “Proved” thru drilling exploratory wells before one can be certain


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## farhan_9909

niaz said:


> Mr Chughtai may be a brilliant and dynamic entrepreneur but his quoted figures of 220 billion barrels of oil and 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas appear to be an example of ‘Wishful thinking’ in the extreme.
> 
> As someone who knows a little bit about Oil & Gas industry; I have no faith in the exaggerated numbers quoted in the Pakistani press reports. The most recent study that I came across ( as of June 2013) about Shale oil & gas resources of the world is:
> 
> http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/overview.pdf
> 
> You will notice that “UNPROVED” estimates of shale oil recoverable reserves for Pakistan are given as 105 TCF for shale gas and 9-billion barrels for shale oil; a far cry from the numbers attributed to Mr Chughtai. Even these also have to “Proved” thru drilling exploratory wells before one can be certain



Risked reserves of Shale gas in Pakista are more than 500tcf.The 105TCF figure is of the technically recoverable reserves


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## niaz

farhan_9909 said:


> Risked reserves of Shale gas in Pakista are more than 500tcf.The 105TCF figure is of the technically recoverable reserves


 
I am from the Petroleum Industry but never came across this figure before. Would appreciate some reference to the origin of this estimate..


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## Kompromat

niaz said:


> I am from the Petroleum Industry but never came across this figure before. Would appreciate some reference to the origin of this estimate..



Sir Australia has a huge Shale gas and oil reserve but most of it is not technically recoverable. I think, he's talking about something similar.


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## Kompromat

fiji said:


> unban me from indian political thread!!
> 
> these guys are deliberately quoting me when iam banned from the thread



You'd have to wait until your ban expires. Please don't quote me again in this thread.


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## farhan_9909

niaz said:


> I am from the Petroleum Industry but never came across this figure before. Would appreciate some reference to the origin of this estimate..




Sure

This is the most latest estimate



> According to a June 2013 estimates of the EIA based on surveys conducted by Advanced Resources International (ARI), a total of 1,170 TCF of risked shale gas are estimated for India-Pakistan region --584 TCF in India and 586 TCF in Pakistan.
> 
> In case of Pakistan these estimates are backed by proven studies and verified technical data “The risked, technically recoverable shale gas resource is estimated at 201 TCF, with 96 TCF in India and 105 TCF in Pakistan,” said the EIA.
> 
> The EIA also estimated risked shale oil in place for India/Pakistan of 314 billion barrels, with 87 billion barrels in India and 227 billion barrels in Pakistan. “The risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 12.9 billion barrels for those two countries, with 3.8 billion barrels for India and 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan,” the EIA said.



Pakistan said to have large reserves of shale gas, oil - DAWN.COM

Pakistan believed to have record gas, oil reserves - Economic Times

=============================================================================

As per EIA official site(Most latest figures)

Recoverable:

Shale oil: 9billions barrel
Shale Gas:105tcf

Risked
Shale oil:*227Billion barrels*
Shale gas:*586tcf*


If we consider the Risked reserves than Pakistan even ranks in the top 5 by both Shale oil and gas estimates

Source:

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/chaptersxx_xxvi.pdf

Please do read it all.Having alot of Info

@niaz

Can we recover the risked reserves aswell with extensive technology?if so than won't it put Pakistan among the top 5?

beside this with this much reserves pakistan can also become a exporter or atleast won't need to import for the next 50years.If America can push shale oil/gas consumption a total of 46% within 10-12years from 4%.Than Pakistan certainly can do similar.

We should have a goal of atleast 20-30% of Shale gas/oil consumption by 2020.Will save us hell alot of money and our precious reserves


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## Bilal.

Hope the Shale oil/gas does not become the new thar coal for us and we don't sleep for 20 years to actually start doing something practical with it.


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## farhan_9909

Bilal. said:


> Hope the Shale oil/gas does not become the new thar coal for us and we don't sleep for 20 years to actually start doing something practical with it.



Well Pakistan is the first country in the region and probably among the few in the world that has already started Producing shale gas though very limited by a italian firm

If i remember the news correctly,it was just an pilot level experimental production and after few months complete production from the site was expected to begin,

Pakistan Starts Producing Tight Gas


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## Bilal.

farhan_9909 said:


> Well Pakistan is the first country in the region and probably among the few in the world that has already started Producing shale gas though very limited by a italian firm
> 
> If i remember the news correctly,it was just an pilot level experimental production and after few months complete production from the site was expected to begin,
> 
> Pakistan Starts Producing Tight Gas




Tight gas is not shale gas. Though it is an unconventional gas along with shale and coal bed methane.

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## niaz

During most of working life, I came across only 3 types of reserves.

Proven reserves: 
These are “Estimate” of recoverable oil & gas which has been proven thru exploratory drilling.

Probable reserves:
These” Estimates” refer to the amount where there is more than 50% probability being technically recoverable. This term is also used when oil has been discovered but not enough exploratory wells have been drilled to accurately determine size of the reservoir but reserves have been estimated based upon oil/gas pressure from existing wells.

Possible reserves:
These “Estimates” are based on guess work depending upon the general topography and geology of the region without any definite oil find.

Because one determines the quantity of hydrocarbons based on size and depth of the “pay zone” or the ‘Reservoir’ and it is not necessary that hydrocarbon are present uniformly thru-out the reservoir structure, actual quantity that can be extracted is always an ESTIMATE.

Risked reserve is a new term that I did not across until very recently. Understand that Risked Reserves refer to prospective reserves ‘Guessed to exist’ on the basis of geological conditions. 

I have read the EIA report portion referring to Pakistan. Authors qualify the data with the comment:

Quote

The risked, technically recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at 201 tcf, with 96 tcf in India and 105 tcf in Pakistan. The risked, technically recoverable shale oil resource is estimated at 12.9 billion barrels for these two countries, with 3.8 billion Barrels for India and 9.1 billion barrels for Pakistan,

Only limited publically available data exist on the geologic setting and reservoir properties of the numerous shale formations in India and Pakistan. In addition, the shale basins in these two countries are geologically highly complex. However, to date, no shale specific exploration has been publically reported for Pakistan.

Unquote.

At another place it is mentioned:

Quote

Sembar Formation:

The Lower Indus Basin has commercial oil and gas discoveries in the Cretaceous-age Goru Fm sands plus additional gas discoveries in shallower formations. The shales in the Sembar Formation are considered as the primary source rocks for these discoveries. While oil and gas shows have been recorded in the Sembar Shale on the Thar Platform, as of yet no productive oil or gas wells have been drilled into the Sembar Shale.

Ranikot Formation:

The shales in the Palaeocene Ranikot Formation are primarily in the upper carbonate unit which consists of fossiliferous limestone interbedded with dolomitic shale, calcareous sandstone and “abundant” bituminous material. The upper unit was deposited in a restricted marine environment.

Unquote

Three reference which are given as source. These are:

1. Viqar-Un-Nisa Quadri and Shuaib,S.M., Hydrocarbon Prospects of the Southern Indus Basin, Pakistan, AAPG Bulletin, vol. 70,

2. Potential Shale Gas Basins of India- Possibilities & Evaluations

Dr.V.K.Rao

3. USGS.

Upon investigation I found the Dr PV Rao only relates to Indian formation and has nothing about Pakistan. There is a detailed USGS report tilted:

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

THE STRATIGRAPHY AND COAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL OF THE BARA FORMATION

IN THE FORT RANIKOT AREA, SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN:

A PROGRESS REPORT

by

CHRISTOPHER WNUK, U.S. Geological Survey

JOHN R. SANFILIPO, U.S. Geological Survey

ALTAF H. CHANDIO, Geological Survey of Pakistan

S. FARAH FATMI, Geological Survey of Pakistan

Report prepared jointly by the Geological Survey of Pakistan and the U.S. Geological Survey under the auspices of the U.S. Geological Survey under the auspices of the U.S. Agency for International Development

Deeper investigation reveals that USGS report also utilises that data compiled by Quadri & Shoab in 1986.

I could only log into the Quadri & Shoab report as ‘Guest’ thus unable to peruse it fully. The abstract is:

Quote:
*Hydrocarbon prospects of southern Indus Basin, Pakistan. *AAPG Bulletin,June 1986,
*Author(s):*Viqar-un-nisa Quadri, S. M. Shuaib

*Abstract:*
The Southern Indus basin extends approximately between lat. 23° and 28°31^primeN, and from long. 66°E to the eastern boundary of Pakistan. Of the 55 exploratory wells drilled (1955-1984), 27 were based on results of multifold seismic surveys. Five commercial oil discoveries and one gas discovery in Cretaceous sands, three gas discoveries in Paleocene limestone or sandstone, and one gas-condensate discovery from lower Eocene limestone prove that hydrocarbons are present. The main hydrocarbon fairways are Mesozoic tilted fault blocks, Tertiary reefal banks, and drape and compressional anticlines. Older reservoirs are accessible toward the east and northeast, and younger mature source rocks are to the west, including offshore, of the Badin block oil field area The Indus offshore basin reflects sedimentation associated with Mesozoic rifting of the Pakistan-Indian margin, superimposed by a terrigenous clastic depositional system comprised of deltas, shelves, and deep-sea fans of the Indus River.
Unquote

It is clear that all the numbers quoted by the EIA are purely theoretical without any concrete proof and based upon a single study conducted in 1986 by V Quadri & SM Shuaib.

To date we have not yet drilled a single exploratory well to estimate the Shale reserves. Therefore in my view the estimates given by the EIA as recoverable reserves are in fact “possible “reserves. Unless we drill an exploratory well and there is a strike, you can never be certain of a find. Normally in case of “possible” areas, there is only a 10% probability of actually striking rich.

When I started work in Esso back in 1967, there were supposedly 50-billion barrels of “possible” reserves of oil in Pakistan. Thus far an only 300-million barrel has been proven.

It is not only the question of recovering risked reserves with extensive technology. Indus basin is a very large area and it is possible that there could be small oil bearing formations scattered all over which makes exploitation of the reserves totally uneconomical. Remember, you have to find the hydrocarbon structure before you talk of extraction. Risked reserve figure is merely a conjecture and I would ignore it.

As Hon Bilal posted; we have proven 85-billion tons of Lignite coal for the last 20 years but where is the benefit?Therefore even the Risked technically recoverable figure should betaken with a pinch of salt. However, should my countrymen decide to jump with joy on the ‘Pies in the sky’ of 596 tcf gas & 220-billion barrels Shale oil reserves they are welcome.

Finally I would like to than Hon Farhan_ 999 for the reference as this has enhanced my knowledge of Pakistan’s of possible hydrocarbon formation in the Indus basin

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## Kompromat

*Pakistan needs to develop shale oil, gas: SDPI
*​*Wednesday, March 19, 2014 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan needs to go for development of shale oil and gas, which is sufficient to fulfill the gas and oil demand for almost next 50 years, according to a study on Tuesday.
*





The study titled “Shale oil and gas launched by the Energy Unit of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), revealed that by achieving this self-sufficiency through the development of these resources, the country will be able to save $15 billion, thus, eliminates trade deficit. “One advantage that indigenous Shale gas may have for Pakistan is that even at prices around $10-12 per mmbtu in the initial phases, the shale gas will have great economic benefits for Pakistan, especially in terms of job creation,” said Engr Arshad H Abbasi, the lead author of the report.

The report also showed that the shale gas exploration and production have the potential to transform Pakistan’s economy. Not only is shale gas abundant in Pakistan but it is also cheap and environment-friendly. Therefore, shale gas definitely offers an opportunity, which if exploited effectively, can help revolutionise the energy mix existing within the country, it revealed.

The effects of shale gas can be far-reaching, and, therefore, it needs to be given adequate importance at the highest Level. SDPI has recommended to the government to convene a meeting of a special task force on shale gas and oil development.
The report informs that the development of shale oil and gas is more labour intensive as compared to conventional resources, especially the drilling phase, which can accommodate both skilled and semiskilled labour. It is estimated that around 75,000 jobs will be generated during the exploration of shale oil and gas and would offer sustainable livelihoods in least developed areas.

Moreover, after successful shale gas reservoir deliverability test, a new venue of investment will be opened for investors and generate massive economic activity across the country, it showed, adding that the shale gas exploration and production may have the ability to transform Pakistan’s economy and revolutionise the existing energy mix within the country. The newly-launched report looked at the importance of developing shale oil and gas for Pakistan as a step towards reducing energy deficiency in the country. It also dilates upon the potential of gaining an economic edge that the exploration of shale gas would entail for Pakistan in South Asia. This is followed by an investigation into the state of the shale gas reserves of the country and the difficulties associated with the exploration process along with an environmental impact assessment.

Moreover, the report discusses the generation of economic activity through shale gas exploration and the benefits that can be accrued to thousands of Pakistanis who are in need of sources of sustainable livelihoods. This study for documents, for the first time, the history of development of natural gas industry in Pakistan, looking at the root causes of the gigantic energy crisis; followed by comprehensive analysis of the trends and dynamics of the natural gas market. The advent of shale gas in North America has not only revolutionised the global natural gas market but has also transformed the global energy landscape. Inspired by the economic impact and growth driven by shale gas in the US, other countries outside North America are now actively pursuing the development of unconventional resources to decrease their dependence on oil imports.

The report highlights that not only US but Canada, China and Poland have been successful in producing natural gas through these plays, while countries such as Argentina, India and Mexico are still striving to develop these resources, yet they face challenges in doing so. The report also looks at the unique nature of shale gas plays, and the unique challenges in case of each country, calling attention to an understanding of reservoir chemistry and geology through data gathering and data modelling. However, this framework towards a national energy doctrine based on indigenous resources could not have been completed without the immense support and constructive remarks from experts, intellectuals and professionals, stretching from the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to the shores of Sindh, and even abroad. —Khalid Mustafa


Pakistan needs to develop shale oil, gas: SDPI - thenews.com.pk


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## Edevelop

* Shale energy: lifeline for Pakistan? - I *

By Naveed Ahmad 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s quest for energy gets more desperate by the day while it has limited capacity to afford the options present before her. Sanctions-marred Iran has geo-political ramifications while solar and wind energy are financially too capital intensive. Dr Asim Hussain, advisor to former President Asif Ali Zardari, brought home a term shale gas after a 2009 study placed Pakistan amongst top 19th country with promising potential amounting to 51 trillion cubic feet of reserves.

The hype further stepped up in 2011 when a US government department estimated Pakistan’s shale gas reserves to 105 trillion cubic feet and hidden oil assets worth 8 billion barrels, ranking the country fifth in the world and even above Canada. If these technologically recoverable assets are exploited, Pakistan can become self-sufficient in its energy needs for five decades.
Given such mind-blowing figures, Pakistan’s ministry of petroleum and natural resources pinned hope for exploration of the projected reserves.

Daily Times is attempting to bring to the fore the myth and reality behind Pakistan’s shale gas dreams in this series of indepth stories. Shale gas is no different from the popular natural gas except for the fact that it’s trapped deep inside the earth within rock formations. Advances in technology have already led the US to increase its production, thus lowering the gas price to a 10-year low in 2012.

Economical and environment friendly it may be but shale gas extraction process has attracted widespread criticism in America in particular and globally in general. Shale gas extraction involves fracturing of rocks trapping hydrocarbons with extensive use of water with extreme pressure. The escaping gas is then is collected on earth’s surface and piped with the existing methods. The process of ‘fracking’ essentially causes rocks to break, which geophysicists and geologists suspect can cause earthquake in seismically active zones such as Pakistan’s pothohar region, Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

According to pioneering study about Pakistan’s shale gas potential by the Sustainable Policy Development Institute, the country has 827,365 sq kilometers sedimentary basic area with gas and oil content exploitable through fracking process. Besides, environmentalists fear that not only the process of fracking using high quantities of water will add to water scarcity in certain parts of the world but may also contaminate the water reservoirs in the earth’s crust.
The SDPI study, led by Engineer Arshad Abbasi, estimates that the country’s shale gas exploit promise prosperity and sustainability. ‘Shale gas viability and prospects in Pakistan’ projects generation of 750,000 jobs over a period of time while if used for power generation, the consumer will get Rs 4 per unit.

“The reserves of shale gas in Balochistan and Koh-e-Sulaiman will generate economic activity,” claims the report. Dr Gulfraz Ahmad, who is member of energy planning and development advisory committee and chairman of Planning Commission’s task force on shale gas exploitation, believes that pro-active policies of the government can result in the shale gas boom within five to eight year.

Daily Times learnt that the idea of exploiting shale gas does not figure very high in the Nawaz government priorities so far. Though the advisory committee on energy planning and development in its two meetings has chosen chairman for the planning commission’s task force on shale energy, notification for its members has yet to be issued.

Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and Planning Commission’s member energy Rab Nawaz are relevant officials for the shale energy initiative. Since the last meeting in February, there has been no serious move towards speeding up the process for shale energy exploits. Detailing challenges to the shale gas exploration, the SDPI report points out lack of policy and regulatory framework; homegrown technology and skill development; and comprehensive core analysis through geological, petrophysical and geo mechanical model.

Dr Gulfraz remarked that US study on Pakistan shale gas potential left much to be desired and “we need to learn much more about our reservers technological parameters”. He opines the question of technologically recoverable shale gas follows it being economically recoverable. The veteran petroleum engineering expert estimates that Pakistan will need an investment to the tune of $15billion to $20billion in realizing the shale energy potential for reaping its benefits. A senior official of a petroleum engineering corporation undermined the fears of sub-soil water contamination and seismic activity through hydraulic fracking.

He believes that half a million shale gas wells are operative in the US without any consequences propagated by the environment lobby. Requesting anonymity, he, however, raised a question mark with regard security situation in the country. “There is no homegrown expertise in this field and foreign engineers and geophysits won’t be comfortable in the existing law and order situation in many parts of Pakistan.” Putting shale gas development atop national energy agenda tops the SDPI reports list of recommendation as Pakistan’s bureaucrats have proven record of lousy decision-making, with the nation paying heavy opportunity cost.

Shale energy: lifeline for Pakistan? - I

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## Shabaz Sharif

Investors being invited for Shale gas exploration

June 08, 2014
 Our Staff Reporter 

*



Investors being invited for Shale gas exploration

For news details Read on : Investors being invited for Shale gas exploration 
islamabad
Advisor to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources/Chairman Oil and Gas Company Limited Zahid Muzaffar has disclosed that there is no equipment with OGDCL for shale gas exploration and efforts are being made to invite local and foreign private investors for joint ventures in this sector.

He said this while talking to Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar. They discussed the issues related to foreign direct investment in oil and gas sector.

In a detailed briefing, Advisor Petroleum Ministry informed the Finance Minister that the total consumption of petroleum products in the country are 21.2 million TOE and of which local crude oil production is 4.7 MTOE only. He said that in 2014, maximum ever 41 block licences have been issued and in the last one year over 30,000 barrels per day have been added to the system
from 68,000 bp/d in July 2013 to over 100,000 bp/d as of today.

He mentioned that in only one year, the production of local oil has increased by 30-40pc and it is due to the commitment of the Federal Government that the situation is improving every day.

He informed the Finance Minister that during the last one year, 539mmcfd of natural gas has been added to the system. However in the old gas fields, there has been a significant decline due to non-availability of modern equipment needed for gas exploration. He disclosed that there is no equipment with OGDCL for shale gas exploration and efforts are being made to invite local and foreign private investors for joint ventures in this sector.

He further informed that Pakistan is an under explored country where only 44pc area is explored whereas the success rate is much higher as compared to other regions including Middle East. He said that in Pakistan exploration well success ratio is 1:3 whereas in Middle East it is 1:5 or more. He said that the OGDCL plans to increase efficiencies in the seismic, drilling, production and processing by establishing partnership with latest technology partners. He informed that foreign exploration and production companies will be invited to participate as joint venture partners. He discussed the plans for attracting FDI to accelerate domestic production in oil and gas sector.

On LPG, he informed that in the last one year, the domestic production has been doubled from 1000 MT/day in July 2013 to over 2000 MT/day. In line with directives of the Prime Minister, LPG will be provided to cities of Balochistan and far flung areas where there is no gas transmission line and distribution system, he added.

The Finance Minister while reiterating his belief that the country is rich in treasures of oil and gas said that the government has already announced special incentives for foreign direct investment in oil and gas exploration and it is high time that the foreign companies should be invited to invest in Pakistan. He informed the Advisor that the corporate tax rate has been reduced from 33pc to 20pc if the investment project is set up by 13th June 2017 and at least 50pc of the total project cost is in the form of equity through FDI. He said that to achieve the vision of an industrialised Pakistan in the future, we have announced this special package.

The Finance Minister directed the Advisor Petroleum Ministry for adopting an aggressive marketing strategy to attract foreign investment in the light of the new incentives given in the Finance Bill 2014-15. The Finance Minister added that a comprehensive strategy and vision is required to overcome the energy crisis and to increase significantly the oil and gas production in order to operate it on international standards. He assured the Advisor that the Finance Ministry will facilitate FDI in oil and gas sector.

Investors being invited for Shale gas exploration*

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## Kompromat

Pakistan shale gas, oil reserves estimated at 105 TCF, 9.1bn barrel, Senate told

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## KingMamba

Aeronaut said:


> Pakistan shale gas, oil reserves estimated at 105 TCF, 9.1bn barrel, Senate told



How much would that be based on global estimates?


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## Kompromat

KingMamba said:


> How much would that be based on global estimates?



You mean exports?


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## KingMamba

Aeronaut said:


> You mean exports?



Nah I mean ranking in terms of who has the most reserves, least etc.


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## Kompromat

KingMamba said:


> Nah I mean ranking in terms of who has the most reserves, least etc.



Pakistan's oil reserves are the 8th largest.

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## Menace2Society

Shale oil gives us roughly 60 years of operating at full capacity and low cost. I wish I could be alive to see a Pakistan 40 years into having this much cheap oil and gas. Shame I had to join the terrorism era.


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## VCheng

Aeronaut said:


> Pakistan's oil reserves are the 8th largest.



These are only "technically recoverable" estimates:

QUOTE: "The term “technically recoverable” is much more expansive. According to the U.S. Geological Survey,* “Technically recoverable resources” are “resources in accumulations producible using current recovery technology but without reference to economic profitability.”* This differs from “proved reserves” in many ways. It is less restrictive than the 90 percent probability point, often including a range of estimates with a corresponding range of probabilities;* it includes estimates of yet-to-be-discovered oil and gas; and includes oil and gas that may not be producible with current prices and other economic conditions. Thus, it can be a much larger figure than “proved reserves.*”" /QUOTE


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## RiazHaq

Pakistan has sent samples of shale gas to the United States to determine the prospects of reserves of this untapped energy source following encouraging estimates given by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), officials say.
According to the EIA assessment, Pakistan holds massive shale gas reserves estimated at 51 trillion cubic feet (tcf), close to the conventional gas reserves of 58 tcf.

At present, the government is conducting a study with the technical assistance of US Agency for International Development to prove the presence of huge shale gas deposits in the country.
Sources disclose that USAID has provided $1.8 million in technical assistance for undertaking the study. “Some samples have been sent to the US and research work will be completed in one year,” an official said, adding they were also looking for adopting US technology.
Washington is also imparting technical training to Pakistani officials and employees and engineers of public sector oil and gas companies.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources has sent a summary to the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet, seeking the go-ahead for initiating a pilot project to search and consume the shale gas potential. The move is aimed at gradually bridging the yawning gap between demand and supply of energy.
Shale gas is natural gas that is found trapped within shale formations. It has low permeability compared to conventional reserves, that’s why it does not come out easily and a specific amount of investment and pricing are required to encourage its exploitation.
At present, Pakistan is not producing shale gas and needs to undertake significant initial work to tap this energy resource.
The US, after the discovery of massive shale gas deposits there in recent years, has become a gas-exporting country. In future, reports say, it will experience a boom in shale oil production as well and will become the largest oil producer.
Officials point out that Pakistan will offer $12 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) to gas exploration and production companies under the pilot programme, a price that is close to the cost of gas to be imported from Iran under the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project.
“A policy framework has been prepared and its approval will be sought from the ECC in its upcoming meeting,” an official of the petroleum ministry told The Express Tribune.
According to the official, exploration companies have already found some traces of shale gas during the search for conventional gas as 10% to 12% of shale gas appears on upper faces of conventional gas.
Experts suggest that Pakistan has consumed around 40% of conventional gas reserves and shale gas is the most viable option to meet growing energy needs.
A study conducted by a group of exploration and production companies says the production of shale gas will be economical at about 80% of the price of Brent crude, but this will have to be brought down to 70%.
Apart from shale gas, the government is also planning to drill 400 wells in the next four years in an effort to enhance the country’s oil and gas production.
Though in the past one year new gas deposits had been found, total production of the country stood at almost the same level at four billion cubic feet per day because of depletion of reserves in old fields.
According to officials, the country has added 500 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) from new finds, but a quantity more than that has been depleted. Therefore, the impact of additional 500 mmcfd is not reflected in overall production.
However, oil output has risen to near 100,000 barrels per day compared to 74,000 barrels per day earlier.

Samples sent: US to assess potential of Pakistan’s shale gas reserves – The Express Tribune


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## farhan_9909

KingMamba said:


> Nah I mean ranking in terms of who has the most reserves, least etc.



Shale Gas: 12th Ranking

Shale oil: 8th/9th ranking

NOTE:The risked reserve's as per the most recent report of EIA are in excess of 500TCF though recoverable figure stand at 105TCF.


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## narcon

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/chaptersxx_xxvi.pdf


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## niaz

Before we start jumping with joy at the thought of supposedly vast shale gas /oil reserves. There are three important points to consider.

Cost.

Per 2013 data, average cost of drilling a shale gas well in the USA was $8-million. Average cost of a standard onshore gas/oil well in the US is about $600- per foot of depth; since most common fracking depth is about 8,000 ft.; a fracking well cost about 60% more.

Outside US such as in Poland average cost of shale gas well averaged $14 to $16 million. This is because drilling company needed to import fracking equipment and crews. In Pakistan it would cost at least $16-miilion may be even $20-million per well.

Only data available with me about fracking is from the US. In 2013, in the fracking operation of the Marcellus Shale field; 728 wells were producing 2.2-billion cft per day. Let us assume that same will apply to Pakistan. Since gas shortfall is likely to reach 8-billion cft per day by 2025. One would need to sink about 2,500 fracking well during next 10 years; that means is an investment of $50-billion or $5-billion per year.

Water:

On average one fracking well consumes 5-million gallons of water per year. 2,500 fracking wells will therefore consume 12.5-billion gallons of water per year. On the other hand very little water is needed in natural gas production (in fact lot water is produced this is normally pumped back). Pakistan is short of water as it is. Unless fracking is done somewhere near the sea such as Badin, fracking on a large scale could aggravatre Pakistan’ water shortage.

Pollution.

Between 20 to 40% of the water used in fracking returns to surface as toxic waste. Some of this waste water contains high levels of radioactive elements such as Radium. Unless treated this will contaminate already scarce water supply. Pakistan cannot even control waste from tanning industry, how will we cope with about 2.5-billion gallons of toxic waste from 2,500 fracking wells.

There are also many other environmental issue that need to be addressed.

Please understand I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but as someone who knows a little bit about oil industry, I consider it is my duty to inform members of this august forum about what is actually involved in fracking.

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## surya kiran

niaz said:


> Before we start jumping with joy at the thought of supposedly vast shale gas /oil reserves. There are three important points to consider.
> 
> Cost.
> 
> Per 2013 data, average cost of drilling a shale gas well in the USA was $8-million. Average cost of a standard onshore gas/oil well in the US is about $600- per foot of depth; since most common fracking depth is about 8,000 ft.; a fracking well cost about 60% more.
> 
> Outside US such as in Poland average cost of shale gas well averaged $14 to $16 million. This is because drilling company needed to import fracking equipment and crews. In Pakistan it would cost at least $16-miilion may be even $20-million per well.
> 
> Only data available with me about fracking is from the US. In 2013, in the fracking operation of the Marcellus Shale field; 728 wells were producing 2.2-billion cft per day. Let us assume that same will apply to Pakistan. Since gas shortfall is likely to reach 8-billion cft per day by 2025. One would need to sink about 2,500 fracking well during next 10 years; that means is an investment of $50-billion or $5-billion per year.
> 
> Water:
> 
> On average one fracking well consumes 5-million gallons of water per year. 2,500 fracking wells will therefore consume 12.5-billion gallons of water per year. On the other hand very little water is needed in natural gas production (in fact lot water is produced this is normally pumped back). Pakistan is short of water as it is. Unless fracking is done somewhere near the sea such as Badin, fracking on a large scale could aggravatre Pakistan’ water shortage.
> 
> Pollution.
> 
> Between 20 to 40% of the water used in fracking returns to surface as toxic waste. Some of this waste water contains high levels of radioactive elements such as Radium. Unless treated this will contaminate already scarce water supply. Pakistan cannot even control waste from tanning industry, how will we cope with about 2.5-billion gallons of toxic waste from 2,500 fracking wells.
> 
> There are also many other environmental issue that need to be addressed.
> 
> Please understand I am not trying to be a spoil sport, but as someone who knows a little bit about oil industry, I consider it is my duty to inform members of this august forum about what is actually involved in fracking.



Very informative niaz. But, also given the situation where it may become a necessity to drill this, don't you think it may make sense to do the following:

1. Initiate partnership with SA or other middle eastern countries to invest in this with a partnership model via a JV?
2. If such a partner is involved, it will ensure safeguards can be put in place to ensure reduction in environmental damage.
3. Water management being a bigger issue, will try to isolate it for this. The water for this need not be drinking water. So can the water from any other source, for e.g sea water from the coast like you are talking or treated sewage from the populated areas be used? While, I understand, sewer treated water may not be enough, it could be a start?


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## niaz

surya kiran said:


> Very informative niaz. But, also given the situation where it may become a necessity to drill this, don't you think it may make sense to do the following:
> 
> 1. Initiate partnership with SA or other middle eastern countries to invest in this with a partnership model via a JV?
> 2. If such a partner is involved, it will ensure safeguards can be put in place to ensure reduction in environmental damage.
> 3. Water management being a bigger issue, will try to isolate it for this. The water for this need not be drinking water. So can the water from any other source, for e.g sea water from the coast like you are talking or treated sewage from the populated areas be used? While, I understand, sewer treated water may not be enough, it could be a start?



I have not even mentioned other side effects of fracking. There are about a million fracking wells in the US and some of the data is really frightening. For example according a report dated June 2012, steel casing of the well wall developed cracks in about 6% of the cases. This caused contamination of ground water. In extreme cases methane gas leaked into the ground water and was found coming out of the water taps in the house causing serious fire hazard.

My main concern is water pollution. Technology base in Pakistan is still in the embryonic stage and environmental considerations are ignored at best of times.You are quite correct, ordinary sewage water treatment are not sufficient. . Only the Shale reserves found near the coast such as in Badin should be exploited where seawater can be used. No fracking well should be nearer than 10 kilometres to a residential area.

What I am trying to stress is that in my humble opinion, fracking is not a “Panacea” for a country such as Pakistan.
We are virtually next door to Iran, Qatar & Turkmenistan. Therefore we have relatively easy access to vast reserves of natural gas. Given the choice, I would ban the use of CNG on private cars and spend the funds to exploit Thar coal reserves for producing electricity. This would free up the gas for household users. Short tern gas short fall would be reduced thru LNG imports. Ideally, until such time situation permits import of piped gas from Iran; use of natural gas should be limited to fertilizer production and home use only.

I am also afraid that economic resources required to exploit shale gas are so enormous that it could go the way of Thar coal reserves and the Reckdeq mineral deposits.

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## RiazHaq

Here's a Texas news story about Pakistan seeking help of a Pakistani-American oilman in Midland, Tx to develop Pakistani shale oil and gas:

_Among those drawn to the Permian Basin is Jalil Abbas Jilani, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, who made a brief trip to MidlandWednesday.

“Pakistan has huge oil and gas reserves and we’re looking at this area for investors interested in joint ventures,” explained the ambassador, speaking by phone as he headed to the airport to fly to Houston. He was accompanied by Afzaal Mahmood, general consul for Pakistan stationed in Houston.

Jilani said he was impressed “by the things happening in Midland” and that he was warmly received at the luncheon attended by local oil men, including Don Evans as well as Midland Mayor Jerry Morales and Jose Cuevas, owner of JumBurrito. He said he hopes local businesses will consider participating in what he described as significant opportunities in Pakistan.

It’s estimated Pakistan holds total conventional and unconventional reserves of about 160 trillion cubic feet equivalent.

Anwar, a native of Pakistan, explained that the ambassador was making an “exculpatory” visit to Midland to gauge interest in helping Pakistan develop its unconventional hydrocarbons.

“They have an acute shortage of natural gas. They used to have conventional gas reserves, but with population growth and economic expansion,” they’re experiencing a shortfall, Anwar said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration cited a Pakistani government report that the country had a natural gas shortfall of 912 billion cubic feet in 2013, though its dry natural gas production has grown by over 80 percent over the last decade to 1,462 Bcf in 2012._

Pakistan ambassador seeks Basin's assistance in developing shale resources - Oil - MyWestTexas.com


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## RiazHaq

Edward L. Morse in Foreign Affairs Magazine on declining cost of finding and extracting shale oil and gas fueling the shale revolution:

Despite its doubters and haters, the shale revolution in oil and gas production is here to stay. In the second half of this decade, moreover, it is likely to spread globally more quickly than most think. And all of that is, on balance, a good thing for the world.

The recent surge of U.S. oil and natural gas production has been nothing short of astonishing. For the past three years, the United States has been the world’s fastest-growing hydrocarbon producer, and the trend is not likely to stop anytime soon. U.S. natural gas production has risen by 25 percent since 2010, and the only reason it has temporarily stalled is that investments are required to facilitate further growth. Having already outstripped Russia as the world’s largest gas producer, by the end of the decade, the United States will become one of the world’s largest gas exporters, fundamentally changing pricing and trade patterns in global energy markets. U.S. oil production, meanwhile, has grown by 60 percent since 2008, climbing by three million barrels a day to more than eight million barrels a day. Within a couple of years, it will exceed its old record level of almost ten million barrels a day as the United States overtakes Russia and Saudi Arabia and becomes the world’s largest oil producer. And U.S. production of natural gas liquids, such as propane and butane, has already grown by one million barrels per day and should grow by another million soon.

What is unfolding in reaction is nothing less than a paradigm shift in thinking about hydrocarbons. A decade ago, there was a near-global consensus that U.S. (and, for that matter, non-OPEC) production was in inexorable decline. Today, most serious analysts are confident that it will continue to grow. The growth is occurring, to boot, at a time when U.S. oil consumption is falling. (Forget peak oil production; given a combination of efficiency gains, environmental concerns, and substitution by natural gas, what is foreseeable is peak oil demand.) And to cap things off, the costs of finding and producing oil and gas in shale and tight rock formations are steadily going down and will drop even more in the years to come.

The evidence from what has been happening is now overwhelming. Efficiency gains in the shale sector have been large and accelerating and are now hovering at around 25 percent per year, meaning that increases in capital expenditures are triggering even more potential production growth. It is clear that vast amounts of hydrocarbons have migrated from their original source rock and become trapped in shale and tight rock, and the extent of these rock formations, like the extent of the original source rock, is enormous -- containing resources far in excess of total global conventional proven oil reserves, which are 1.5 trillion barrels. And there are already signs that the technology involved in extracting these resources is transferable outside the United States, so that its international spread is inevitable.

In short, it now looks as though the first few decades of the twenty-first century will see an extension of the trend that has persisted for the past few millennia: the availability of plentiful energy at ever-lower cost and with ever-greater efficiency, enabling major advances in global economic growth.

WHY THE PAST IS PROLOGUE

The shale revolution has been very much a “made in America” phenomenon. In no other country can landowners also own mineral rights. In only a few other countries (such as Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom) is there a tradition of an energy sector featuring many independent entrepreneurial companies, as opposed to a few major companies or national champions. And in still fewer countries are there capital markets able and willing to support financially risky exploration and production.

This powerful combination of indigenous factors will continue to drive U.S. efforts. A further 30 percent increase in U.S. natural gas production is plausible before 2020, and from then on, it should be possible to maintain a constant or even higher level of production for decades to come. As for oil, given the research and development now under way, it is likely that U.S. production could rise to 12 million barrels per day or more in a few years and be sustained there for a long time. (And that figure does not include additional potential output from deep-water drilling, which is also seeing a renaissance in investment.)

Two factors, meanwhile, should bring prices down for a long time to come. The first is declining production costs, a consequence of efficiency gains from the application of new and growing technologies. And the second is the spread of shale gas and tight oil production globally. Together, these suggest a sustainable price of around $5.50 per thousand cubic feet for natural gas in the United States and a trading range of $70–$90 per barrel for oil globally by the end of this decade.

These trends will provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy. Households could save close to $30 billion annually in electricity costs by 2020, compared to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s current forecast. Gasoline costs could fall from an average of five percent to three percent of real disposable personal income. The price of gasoline could drop by 30 percent, increasing annual disposable income by $750, on average, per driving household. The oil and gas boom could add about 2.8 percent in cumulative GDP growth by 2020 and bolster employment by some three million jobs.

Beyond the United States, the spread of shale gas and tight oil exploitation should have geopolitically profound implications. There is no longer any doubt about the sheer abundance of this new accessible resource base, and that recognition is leading many governments to accelerate the delineation and development of commercially available resources. Countries’ motivations are diverse and clear. For Saudi Arabia, which is already developing its first power plant using indigenous shale gas, the exploitation of its shale resources can free up more oil for exports, increasing revenues for the country as a whole. For Russia, with an estimated 75 billion barrels of recoverable tight oil (50 percent more than the United States), production growth spells more government revenue. And for a host of other countries, the motivations range from reducing dependence on imports to increasing export earnings to enabling domestic economic development.

RISKY BUSINESS?

Skeptics point to three problems that could lead the fruits of the revolution to be left to wither on the vine: environmental regulation, declining rates of production, and drilling economics. But none is likely to be catastrophic.

Hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking” -- the process of injecting sand, water, and chemicals into shale rocks to crack them open and release the hydrocarbons trapped inside -- poses potential environmental risks, such as the draining or polluting of underground aquifers, the spurring of seismic activity, and the spilling of waste products during their aboveground transport. All these risks can be mitigated, and they are in fact being addressed in the industry’s evolving set of best practices. But that message needs to be delivered more clearly, and best practices need to be implemented across the board, in order to head off local bans or restrictive regulation that would slow the revolution’s spread or minimize its impact.

As for declining rates of production, fracking creates a surge in production at the beginning of a well’s operation and a rapid drop later on, and critics argue that this means that the revolution’s purported gains will be illusory. But there are two good reasons to think that high production will continue for decades rather than years. First, the accumulation of fracked wells with a long tail of production is building up a durable base of flows that will continue over time, and second, the economics of drilling work in favor of drilling at a high and sustained rate of production.

Finally, some criticize the economics of fracking, but these concerns have been exaggerated. It is true that through 2013, the upstream sector of the U.S. oil and gas industry has been massively cash-flow negative. In 2012, for example, the industry spent about $60 billion more than it earned, and some analysts believe that such trends will continue. But the costs were driven by the need to acquire land for exploration and to pursue unproductive drilling in order to hold the acreage. Now that the land-grab days are almost over, the industry’s cash flow should be increasingly positive.

It is also true that traditional finding and development costs indicate that natural gas prices need to be above $4 per thousand cubic feet and oil prices above $70 per barrel for the economics of drilling to work -- which suggests that abundant production might drive prices down below what is profitable. But as demand grows for natural gas -- for industry, residential and commercial space heating, the export market, power generation, and transportation -- prices should rise to a level that can sustain increased drilling: the $5–$6 range, which is about where prices were this past winter. Efficiency gains stemming from new technology, meanwhile, are driving down break-even drilling costs. In the oil sector, most drilling now brings an adequate return on investment at prices below $50 per barrel, and within a few years, that level could be under $40 per barrel.

THINK GLOBALLY

Since shale resources are found around the globe, many countries are trying to duplicate the United States’ success in the sector, and it is likely that some, and perhaps many, will succeed. U.S. recoverable shale resources constitute only about 15 percent of the global total, and so if the true extent and duration of even the U.S. windfall are not yet measurable, the same applies even more so for the rest of the world. Many countries are already taking early steps to develop their shale resources, and in several, the results look promising. It is highly likely that Australia, China, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom will see meaningful production before the end of this decade. As a result, global trade in energy will be dramatically disrupted.

A few years ago, hydrocarbon exports from the United States were negligible. But by the start of 2013, oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals had become the single largest category of U.S. exports, surpassing agricultural products, transportation equipment, and capital goods. The shift in the U.S. trade balance for petroleum products has been stunning. In 2008, the United States was a net importer of petroleum products, taking in about two million barrels per day; by the end of 2013, it was a net exporter, with an outflow of more than two million barrels per day. By the end of 2014, the United States should overtake Russia as the largest exporter of diesel, jet fuel, and other energy products, and by 2015, it should overtake Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter of petrochemical feedstocks. The U.S. trade balance for oil, which in 2011 was −$354 billion, should flip to +$5 billion by 2020.

By then, the United States will be a net exporter of natural gas, on a scale potentially rivaling both Qatar and Russia, and the consequences will be enormous. The U.S. gas trade balance should shift from −$8 billion in 2013 to +$14 billion by 2020. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico and eastern Canada are likely to grow by 400 percent, to eight billion cubic feet per day, by 2018, and perhaps to ten billion by 2020. U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) look likely to reach nine billion cubic feet per day by 2020.

Sheer volume is important, but not as much as two other factors: the pricing basis and the amount of natural gas that can be sold in a spot market. Most LNG trade links the price of natural gas to the price of oil. But the shale gas revolution has delinked these two prices in the United States, where the traditional 7:1 ratio between oil and gas prices has exploded to more than 20:1. That makes LNG exports from the United States competitive with LNG exports from Qatar or Russia, eroding the oil link in LNG pricing. What’s more, traditional LNG contracts are tied to specific destinations and prohibit trading. U.S. LNG (and likely also new LNG from Australia and Canada) will not come with anticompetitive trade restrictions, and so a spot market should emerge quickly. And U.S. LNG exports to Europe should erode the Russian state oil company Gazprom’s pricing hold on the continent, just as they should bring down prices of natural gas around the world.

In the geopolitics of energy, there are always winners and losers. OPEC will be among the latter, as the United States moves from having had a net hydrocarbon trade deficit of some nine million barrels per day in 2007, to having one of under six million barrels today, to enjoying a net positive position by 2020. Lost market share and lower prices could pose a devastating challenge to oil producers dependent on exports for government revenue. Growing populations and declining per capita incomes are already playing a central role in triggering domestic upheaval in Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela, and in that regard, the years ahead do not look promising for those countries.

At the same time, the U.S. economy might actually start approaching energy independence. And the shale revolution should also lead to the prevalence of market forces in international energy pricing, putting an end to OPEC’s 40-year dominance, during which producers were able to band together to raise prices well above production costs, with negative consequences for the world economy. When it comes to oil and natural gas, we now know that though much is taken, much abides -- and the shale revolution is only just getting started.


Edward L. Morse | The Shale Revolution Is Here to Stay | Foreign Affairs


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## RiazHaq

From Financial Times on shale production costs:

As oil prices have fallen, the cost of production from US shale has emerged as a critical question for investors.
In a downturn, higher-cost supply is most at risk, and the need for horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing – “fracking” – in shale reserves means they are more expensive to develop than many oilfields in the Middle East.


If oil prices fall further, however, US production costs are likely to fall too, providing a safety valve to reduce the pressure on producers.
There is no single answer to the break-even price for shale developments: it varies from area to area and well to well.
Even with US crude prices of about $100 a barrel earlier in the year, the small and midsized exploration and production companies that led the US shale revolution were running large cash deficits.
If oil remains at its present level of roughly $82 per barrel, it will put back the point at which they will be able to cover their capital spending from their cash flows.
However, their costs have already fallen sharply, and could fall further. The median North American shale development needs a US crude price of $57 a barrel to break even today, compared with $70 a barrel in the summer of last year, according to IHS, the research company.
EOG Resources, one of the most successful of the shale oil producers, cut its cost per well in the Leonard shale on the border of Texas and New Mexico from $6.9m in 2011 to $5m this year, while raising average production from each well.


Melissa Stark, a managing director at Accenture, the consultancy, says the industry still has a lot of room for improvement.
With more than 18,000 horizontal wells set to be drilled in the US this year, she argues that improving the “manufacturing model” of repeated similar projects could deliver large savings.
Accenture believes the average cost of a US shale well could be cut by up to 40 per cent by better management of factors such as planning, logistics, and relationships with suppliers.
David Vaucher of IHS says that if prices remain at around today’s levels, rates charged to oil producers for fracking and other services are likely to remain about where they are.


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0a25ecf4-5937-11e4-9546-00144feab7de.html


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## niaz

During the discussions with various experts from Chin as well as the US during the APPEC (Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference) held at Singapore end Sept/early October this year; oil and gas price was the hot topic. It was generally agreed that $80 per bbl. oil is the reference point. If the price falls below it, additional investment in Fracking & Shale development would dry out.

On the other hand, large Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia are worried about changing geo-political situation and losing their strategic importance to the US. There are no plans for an emergency meeting to halt the recent downward slide in the international oil price. OPEC countries production cost is considered below $20 per bbl and $80 per bbl high enough price for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE & Qatar.

Understand this morning Brent traded as low as $84 in the Far East market with OPEC basket of crudes at close to $82 per bbl. In my humble opinion oil prices are likely to stay at current levels at least until next OPEC meeting schedule for Nov 27, 2014.

Indirectly this scenario would affect tight/shale gas drilling in Pakistan;foreign investors may consider it uneconomic. It should however direct benefit Pakistan in short term by reducing annual import bill by about 20%.

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## RiazHaq

niaz said:


> During the discussions with various experts from Chin as well as the US during the APPEC (Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference) held at Singapore end Sept/early October this year; oil and gas price was the hot topic. It was generally agreed that $80 per bbl. oil is the reference point. If the price falls below it, additional investment in Fracking & Shale development would dry out.
> 
> On the other hand, large Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia are worried about changing geo-political situation and losing their strategic importance to the US. There are no plans for an emergency meeting to halt the recent downward slide in the international oil price. OPEC countries production cost is considered below $20 per bbl and $80 per bbl high enough price for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE & Qatar.
> 
> Understand this morning Brent traded as low as $84 in the Far East market with OPEC basket of crudes at close to $82 per bbl. In my humble opinion oil prices are likely to stay at current levels at least until next OPEC meeting schedule for Nov 27, 2014.
> 
> Indirectly this scenario would affect tight/shale gas drilling in Pakistan;foreign investors may consider it uneconomic. It should however direct benefit Pakistan in short term by reducing annual import bill by about 20%.



The shale oil and gas production costs are also declining at least as fast or faster than crude oil prices. 

At current costs, the break-even for shale oil is $57 a barrel.


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## patentneer

Govt's in S. Asia are least interested in developing a national energy industry, specially oil and gas. 

Taxes on imported oil and gas are a major revenue stream for poor states, that's why. 

And side income. Commissions go directly to politicians who order the supplies.

Nobody kills the goose that lays golden eggs by setting up local oil and gas play, rather there is more money in quashing newbies and competitors.


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## Viper0011.

RiazHaq said:


> *The shale oil and gas production costs are also declining at least as fast or faster than crude oil prices. *
> At current costs, the break-even for shale oil is $57 a barrel.



That's inaccurate about Shale gas. The extraction, processing, and then refining process are very costly for a country like Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh. The hi-tech infrastructure doesn't exist and the TOT is very costly. It's proven out to be very costly for the US and Canadian companies. The $ 57 a barrel may be if hundreds of millions of barrels are produced. Not feasible for smaller countries specifically.

Plus, when oil is cheap, that's the best time to do long term deals at today's price. Like your gov't did with Qatar for LNG over 15 years. These are great decisions which will bring prosperity to your economy due to deflation.

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## Kabira

Yeah at current prices shale gas/oil will be to expensive. But Pakistan should continue to work to get real estimates of shale gas/oil reserves in Pakistan. One never knows and tech is improving all the time.


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## Menace2Society

Why is extraction expensive?


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## Viper0011.

Menace2Society said:


> Why is extraction expensive?



Its a much complex process to refine Sand and other materials and extract Oil from it, requires newer tech which was recently built, so the machinery is also expensive. 15 years from now, the machinery would be cheaper as new things will be getting developed. Plus, unlike Oil getting out of a Well, this requires transportation to facilities which then refine and extract oil, and then the oil goes through its own cycle. So difficult process, more complex and expensive tech, compared to oil, and more layers involved to finally get the production grade oil for use.


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## niaz

Oil price can easily go back up. I have seen oil prices fluctuate between $1.60 per bbl. to $130 per bbl. within my working life.

My point is that we should not be short sighted and only responds to the changing situations. Instead we should be prepared for the future emergencies. What would happen if an Iranian / Saudi confrontation causes closure of Straits of Hormoz? No sane Pakistani would like his country to be completely dependent upon imported oil & gas.

Energy demand normally grows at about 50% of the GDP growth. We need Pakistan economy to grow at least about 7% per year for next 10 years to provide jobs for the expanding young population. Given that Pakistan economy is already energy starved, our demand could easily double.

No matter how much one moves towards renewable and the nuclear energy; base load of the energy demand would be met thru the conventional sources. Pakistan is extremely short of energy and it is imperative that we continue development of the all our potential resources such as Thar coal and shale/tight gas, irrespective of the international oil price fluctuations. Cheap oil price only means that exploitation of these resources need not be at fast pace, thats all.


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## King-O-Ring

This is true, Pakistan comes in Top 10 by shale bed hydrocarbon sources and it is said by OGDCL sources we can have more and more shale oil, if ministry of petroleum approves. thus we can not say by reserves or production. Plus No Oil Exploration & development company has yet discovered vast shale oil/gas yet. 

USA initiated this thing and they needed +10 years to study on shale rocks. China has started shake gas projects recently. 

Here comes the actual limitation that's finance. in Pakistan there is no any financial institution that could go through this project. I am not finance guy i don't know which government institution should do that excluding ministry of petroleum.

The wells to be drilled in Shake gas rocks are much more costly (x10) by expenditure.

Recent development regarding this, Weatherford an american oil field service company and OGDCL our national oil company had developed centre for tight gas and shale at islamabad on their own. and some experts have gone abroad for training's.


I welcome any body who do not understands what shale gas is.



Viper0011. said:


> Its a much complex process to refine Sand and other materials and extract Oil from it, requires newer tech which was recently built, so the machinery is also expensive. 15 years from now, the machinery would be cheaper as new things will be getting developed. Plus, unlike Oil getting out of a Well, this requires transportation to facilities which then refine and extract oil, and then the oil goes through its own cycle. So difficult process, more complex and expensive tech, compared to oil, and more layers involved to finally get the production grade oil for use.



It is neither new technology, nor complex. the only thing energy department of pakistan *what ever official institution is* should start developing centre and hire experts and start studying this thing. or atleast finance existing national oil companies of pakistan. they can do it within span of 1-3 years.

The out come is never knows in fossil fuel bussiness. The success ratio is always very uncertain.



nomi007 said:


> sorry donot worry our leaders are not interested to explore them



Leaders do not know what this thing is. this is not the responsibility of leaders of nation. It is responsibility of DGPC and Mi nistry of Petroleum Pakistan


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## Viper0011.

King-O-Ring said:


> It is neither new technology, nor complex. the only thing energy department of pakistan *what ever official institution is* should start developing centre and hire experts and start studying this thing. or atleast finance existing national oil companies of pakistan. they can do it within span of 1-3 years.
> 
> The out come is never knows in fossil fuel bussiness. The success ratio is always very uncertain.



Shale oil production is very costly for the first few years. The machinery and the tech is newer and more sophisticated. Oil at its current prices is cheaper than the Shale extraction process. Venturing out to a more complex and more expensive process when Oil is available at much cheaper prices, makes no sense for a country like Pakistan.

Shale extraction ratio is very certain as you would already know which area has more soil and sand having oil particles attached to it.


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## Kabira

King-O-Ring said:


> This is true, Pakistan comes in Top 10 by shale bed hydrocarbon sources and it is said by OGDCL sources we can have more and more shale oil, if ministry of petroleum approves. thus we can not say by reserves or production. Plus No Oil Exploration & development company has yet discovered vast shale oil/gas yet.
> 
> USA initiated this thing and they needed +10 years to study on shale rocks. China has started shake gas projects recently.
> 
> Here comes the actual limitation that's finance. in Pakistan there is no any financial institution that could go through this project. I am not finance guy i don't know which government institution should do that excluding ministry of petroleum.
> 
> The wells to be drilled in Shake gas rocks are much more costly (x10) by expenditure.
> 
> Recent development regarding this, Weatherford an american oil field service company and OGDCL our national oil company had developed centre for tight gas and shale at islamabad on their own. and some experts have gone abroad for training's.
> 
> 
> I welcome any body who do not understands what shale gas is.
> 
> 
> 
> It is neither new technology, nor complex. the only thing energy department of pakistan *what ever official institution is* should start developing centre and hire experts and start studying this thing. or atleast finance existing national oil companies of pakistan. they can do it within span of 1-3 years.
> 
> The out come is never knows in fossil fuel bussiness. The success ratio is always very uncertain.
> 
> 
> 
> Leaders do not know what this thing is. this is not the responsibility of leaders of nation. It is responsibility of DGPC and Mi nistry of Petroleum Pakistan



We are supposed to get real estimate of shale gas&oil by end of this year, do you know when exactly?


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## pakdefender

Extraction of oil from oil sand is also expensive , it takes roughly two barrels of oil to extract one barrel from oil sand but still that is being done.

Pakistan should move ahead with development of this sector


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## Kabira

pakdefender said:


> Extraction of oil from oil sand is also expensive , it takes roughly two barrels of oil to extract one barrel from oil sand but still that is being done.
> 
> Pakistan should move ahead with development of this sector



Another advantage is new jobs it will generate.


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## pakdefender

Pakistan should seek help from ABB , It's a Swiss company so less political baggage than US companies and it also provided China with complete automation solution for shale gas extraction

ABB provides smart technology for China's first large-scale shale gas project


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## pakdefender

I did some research on process of fracking and extraction of gas from shale rock formations.

This method is potentially very hazardous to the environment. As part of the fracking process mixture of water , sand and different chemicals is pumped down the bore into the share rock.

Water and Sand are benign but the Chemicals include Beryllium , Arsenic ( Highly poisonous ) and even Radons ( which is Radi active ). This mixture is pumped in to cause the fractures but it is also pumped out and it becomes so toxic that nothing more can be done with , no recycling.

Fracking process has been known since 1940 , so its not new. Haliburton ( of Dick Cheny fame ) pioneered this method and process , in the United States 60% of the gas comes from shale gas. 

In states like Pennsylvania environmental damage has already been recorded.

United States is and industrialized country and their land mass is very large so maybe they can afford to damage their environment

Even though the bore made for shale gas extraction is very deep up 6000 feet below ground , groundwater is at about 50 to 100 feet , still the pipe goes through the aquifer and chemicals can leak into groundwater. Finally when all the gas from the shale well is extracted , to close off the well the toxic mixture is poured back into the well and sealed off, which can seep back into the groundwater and soil.

Pakistan is an agricultural country and if we pump poison down into the Indus basin , which is the bread basket , then the damage could be immense.

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## niaz

Abandoning fracking due to fear water pollution for an energy starved country without thorough investigation is being naïve.

USA is a strong agricultural country as well. Annual production of wheat more than 50-million tons, but USA is the world leader in fracking. Even UK has strong farming base. In 2014 UK output was about 16-million tons of wheat & 7-millions of barley, however UK gov’t gave go ahead to fracking in July 2014 after lengthy public hearings.

The debate about fracking is nothing new. We must realize that every industry and activity including building Dams has its pro’s & con’s. The question is of estimating whether potential benefits are higher than the adverse effects. In my opinion the matter should be thoroughly debated in public forums but with real experts in the environment, agriculture & energy filed. Little knowledge is a dangerous thing and I don’t mean people who become self-claimed experts after reading a couple articles but those who have spent their lifetime in their respective discipline.

The following link provides an insight into Fracking for layman.

The environmental costs and benefits of fracking: The state of research - Journalist's Resource Journalist's Resource

Personally, I would go for it but in stages. That is, Pakistanis engineers need to gain operational experience and learnt to cope with the potential hazards by operating only one or two sites for a couple years before going full steam ahead.

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## niaz

I may not agree with many of his assumptions and he has obviously not dug deep into the effects of fracking on water pollution; the following article is by someone who knows what he is talking about. Jury is however still out on pro's & cons of Fracking.


Arshad H Abbasi
Wednesday, June 03, 2015

A recent opinion piece by the minister for petroleum has taken to opposing shale gas in preference for LNG. To put things in context, it must be noted that, at present, Pakistan struggles to meet a demand of up to 7 billion cubic feet per day against a production of 4bcf per day. The production of indigenous natural gas is declining, and the rate of new discoveries cannot match the demand. It must also be noted that current surveys do not point to any major discoveries of conventional natural gas reserves.

Pakistan’s energy crisis stemmed from a reliance on depleting natural gas reserves, and a consequent shift to oil. Until 2005, Pakistan’s power sector relied on a steady supply of natural gas, which was about 48 percent in the power mix. After 2006, we increased our power generation dependence on oil instead of gas. Pakistan’s power sector became a hostage to circular debt, as huge subsidies were given as a result of the tariff differential on oil.

To meet the burgeoning natural gas demand, we have multiple options. For pipelined gas, the transnational pipelines – the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline – are options. For LNG, Pakistan has been focused on importing LNG from Qatar. While conventional gas reserves are running out in Pakistan, we have estimated technically recoverable reserves of 105 tcf of shale gas and 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil.

In the US and Canada the daily production of shale gas is 32bcf and 4bcf. In China and Poland, besides heavy spending, the production is 600 and 150 million cubic feet per day respectively. In India, where the two oil and gas giants failed to unlock shale gas mainly because of complex geology and lack of accurate data.

It is important to note that Pakistan shared its geological data as part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) from 1955 to 1970, while India and China were not on the US bloc during the cold war. We had obtained multi-million dollar grants from the US to the set up a geological survey of Pakistan, including development of laboratories and facilities in all over the country.

The world’s fifth largest company by revenue and top shale gas player, ExxonMobil, then Vacuum Oil Company in 1954, had discovered the Uch and Kandhko Gas reserves. Other companies also landed in Pakistan for oil and gas exploration. One the biggest advantage of these companies was accuracy in maintaining log-data since 1956, which later on helped in analysing the key parameters, depth, structure, and two key indicators – TOC (total organic content) and thermal maturity (Ro) for assessment of Shale oil and gas.

Given the aforementioned facts, it must be underscored that shale gas cannot be discredited because of its huge potential, estimated to be enough for the next 70 years. Shale gas can be a real game-changer for Pakistan. Assessments of our shale gas potential are based on log data being compiled by oil and gas exploration companies.

When I was invited to witness the Marcellus Shale Basin in Pennsylvania, the experts there were surprised that Pakistan was not working fast towards shale gas. Apparently we are sitting on a goldmine with our vast exploitable potential for shale oil and gas. It is disappointing that even with the possibilities, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources failed to formalise a shale gas policy and is instead just focusing on LNG imports. The price of imported LNG was kept secret as it was projected as the only panacea to Pakistan’s energy crisis.

Some are now making false assumptions on the use of water and the cost of shale gas, without knowing the fact that only half a million acre is required for unlocking 8bcf. Before launching an anti-shale oil and gas campaign, the minister ought to know that the ‘guar’ plant grown entirely in the Indian subcontinent has emerged as a major cash crop in Pakistan as it is used in the proppant in the extraction of shale gas.

Shale Gas may therefore even bring a green revolution for the farmers of Sindh and Balochistan. The unlocking of Shale Gas may bring a major incentive which will help the life the Thar, when they get right price for Guar beans.

But the most illogical argument of the campaign is the comparison of imported LNG and cost of unlocking shale. It shows ignorance of the basic concepts of energy security, the importance of the national economy and jobs creation. The most glorious advantage of shale gas is the potential massive job opportunities for skilled and semi-skilled Pakistanis. Working in the heart of the energy sector, we have worked closely on shale oil and gas development, recognising the vast possibilities to boost economy, and energy in Pakistan. The report suggests that development of shale oil and gas may be sufficient to fulfil the gas and oil demand for almost next 50 years.

Achieving this self-sufficiency through the development of these resources, the country would be able to save $15 billion, thus eliminating the trade deficit. It also looks at the strong nexus exist between energy and employment generation. The report informs that development of shale oil and gas is more labour intensive as compared to conventional resources, especially the drilling phase, which can accommodate both skilled and semiskilled labour. It is estimated that around 75,000 jobs would be generated during shale oil and gas exploration and would offer sustainable livelihoods in the least development areas.

A shale oil and gas industry for the future of Pakistan will generate vast investment opportunities. Shale gas exploration and production may have the ability to transform our economy and revolutionise the existing energy mix within the country.

Naysayers ought to consider these factors and present solid facts and research before putting shale gas on the backburner. In the PML-N manifesto, the party promised to address the challenge of unemployment. Using energy as a driver of economic growth, and utilising indigenous resource must be on the top agenda for energy security. Therefore, it is time for the prime minister to take a decision to end the red-tape that surrounds shale gas.

Email: ahabasi@gmail.com

Shale gas: a real game-changer - Arshad H Abbasi

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## Tiger Genie

pakdefender said:


> I did some research on process of fracking and extraction of gas from shale rock formations.
> 
> This method is potentially very hazardous to the environment. As part of the fracking process mixture of water , sand and different chemicals is pumped down the bore into the share rock.
> 
> Water and Sand are benign but the Chemicals include Beryllium , Arsenic ( Highly poisonous ) and even Radons ( which is Radi active ). This mixture is pumped in to cause the fractures but it is also pumped out and it becomes so toxic that nothing more can be done with , no recycling.
> 
> Fracking process has been known since 1940 , so its not new. Haliburton ( of Dick Cheny fame ) pioneered this method and process , in the United States 60% of the gas comes from shale gas.
> 
> In states like Pennsylvania environmental damage has already been recorded.
> 
> United States is and industrialized country and their land mass is very large so maybe they can afford to damage their environment
> 
> Even though the bore made for shale gas extraction is very deep up 6000 feet below ground , groundwater is at about 50 to 100 feet , still the pipe goes through the aquifer and chemicals can leak into groundwater. Finally when all the gas from the shale well is extracted , to close off the well the toxic mixture is poured back into the well and sealed off, which can seep back into the groundwater and soil.
> 
> Pakistan is an agricultural country and if we pump poison down into the Indus basin , which is the bread basket , then the damage could be immense.




Absolutely true. Unfortunately America has committed serious mistakes by adopting extensive fracking. There are already signs of major impact in those areas.


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## black-hawk_101

When will Pakistan going to privatize all of its energy sector?

I mean all the Oil, Gas and mineral companies?


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## niaz

Yesterday I met a member of the board of WAPDA who is now retired; as are most persons in my age group; at an Iftar party at a friend’s house in London.

During general discussions, it came out that in addition to the FE required for investment; a major stumbling block in exploiting Pakistan’s Tight/Shale gas reserves is lack of fresh water. It is estimated that a single well would consume more than 3-million gallons of fresh water.. Roughly it means about 500- 600 tank- trucks of ‘Fresh’ water to the well and about 250 to 300 tank –trucks of waste liquid out of each fracking well. One could have hundreds of fracked wells to properly exploit a large Tight gas reservoir.

Pakistan is already seriously short of fresh water, specially in the Lower Indus basin where most of the Tight/Shale gas bearing formations are located. Therefore unless fracking technology using brackish water is developed soon; Pakistan Tight/Shale gas formations are likely to remain unexploited. Much the same way as much touted Thar coal.

Naturally I have no way of proving or disproving this assertion. However this would explain why despite severe shortage of natural gas; GOP did not pursue ‘Fracking’ even during the period when oil was $100 per barrel.

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## stalintom

Thanks for updates


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## RiazHaq

#Pakistan confirms it has 105 trillion cubic ft #shale gas, 58 billion barrels of shale oil reserves #energy Shale gas, oil reserves outweigh conventional stock, study reveals - Pakistan - DAWN.COM 

Pakistan has confirmed recoverable reserves of around 200 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas and around 58 billion barrels of oil in its shale structure — many times larger than existing conventional gas reserves of around 20 TCF and 385 million barrels of oil.

This was stated by Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi at a press conference held here on Thursday to explain main findings of a recently concluded Shale Gas Study based on actual data of existing wells.

“The conclusion (of the study) is that Pakistan has huge potential of shale gas and oil which is much bigger than previous estimates of the United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA) and technology is available at home to produce this resource,” he said.

Also read: Oil and gas reserves found in Mianwali

Mr Abbasi said the country had a massive potential of 10,159 TCF shale gas and 2.3tr barrels of oil. He said the USEIA had reported in April 2011 the presence of 206 TCF shale gas in lower Indus Basin out of which 51 TCF was termed technically recoverable.

However, in June 2013 the USEIA revised the shale gas resource in Pakistan at 586 TCF in place out of which 105 TCF was tipped as risked technically recoverable and also included 9.1bn barrels of shale oil risked technically recoverable out of 227bn barrels shale oil in place.

He said a shale gas study initiated in January 2014 with the support of USAID had been completed. It proved that Pakistan had 10,159 TCF of shale gas resource and 2,323bn barrels of shale oil.

He said the findings were reached when recoverable data of 1,611 wells were collected and shale formation of 1,312 wells through drill was examined. The study covered lower and middle Indus Basin, geographically spread over Sindh, southern Punjab and eastern Balochistan. He said 70 per cent of wells data were used to develop the study.

The minister said the samples were sent to New Tech Laboratory in Houston to verify shale gas and oil resource in place. The study confirmed that Pakistan had the potential of shale gas and oil which was more than expectations.

He said Pakistan had the technology for exploring conventional oil and gas that could be used for exploiting shale oil and gas. However, the country requires more technology for exploiting shale oil and gas resource on a larger scale. He said that real challenges were environmental issues, availability of water and higher cost of drilling. He said one well required 3-8m barrels of water.

Shale gas will cost $10 per Million British Thermal Unit. “We have assigned OGDCL and PPL to explore shale gas and oil from one well to determine cost of extracting them.”

Responding to a question, Mr Abbasi said the natural gas would be available only for domestic consumers in Punjab and even they would not get it between 10pm and 5am. The demand of gas in domestic sector in Punjab is about 950mmcfd, but supplies will be around 650 mmcfd and the difference would need to be met through pressure management.

He said the power plants and fertiliser units would be run on LNG. “CNG sector may also get LNG if supply is available,” he said, adding that captive power plants would also be switched to LNG.

In reply to another question, he said a transparent process had been followed in awarding LNG contract and all required information and record were provided to the National Accountability Bureau. “I have been engaged personally in process of LNG and, therefore, take full responsibility and am available for any questioning or accountability,” he said.

He said that a summary had also been moved to the Council of Common Interests to approve regulation of LPG prices to provide relief to consumers but the CCI had not met for 10 months.

#Pakistan has 10,159 trillion cubic feet of #shale gas & 3.2 trillion barrels of shale oil reserves: #USAID #energy http://tribune.com.pk/story/994883/...an-has-10159-tcf-of-shale-gas-deposits-usaid/ …

Pakistan has massive deposits of 10,159 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of shale gas and 2.3 trillion barrels of oil – estimates that are several times higher than figures given by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), reveals a study conducted with the help of US Agency for International Development (USAID).

EIA had reported in April 2011 that 206 tcf of shale gas was present in the lower Indus Basin, of which 51 tcf were technically recoverable.

However, in June 2013, EIA revised the estimate upwards to 586 tcf, of which 105 tcf were tipped as technically recoverable. Apart from gas, EIA also saw the presence of 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil that were technically recoverable out of the estimated deposits of 227 billion barrels.

Speaking at a press conference, Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said the study was undertaken with the support of USAID in January 2014, and was completed in November this year.

He said the study confirmed that Pakistan had 10,159 tcf of shale gas and 2,323 billion barrels of oil reserves.

“Risked technically recoverable resource is 95 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 14 billion barrels of shale oil,” Abbasi said, adding the data of 1,611 wells had been collected and shale formation of 1,312 wells was done through drilling.

He said 70% of data was used to develop the study and samples were sent to the New Tech laboratory in Houston, US for assessment. “Pakistan has the potential to produce shale gas and oil, which is more than expectations,” he remarked.

Abbasi insisted that the technology in Pakistan for exploring conventional oil and gas deposits could also be used for extracting shale reserves. Still, more technology was required for producing shale oil and gas on a large scale.

He cited environmental issues, provision of water and high cost of drilling as the real challenges. A well requires 3 to 8 million barrels of water.

“We have water but the real issue is its disposal,” he said, adding shale gas would cost $10 per million British thermal units. However, the cost will come down with the increase in recovery of untapped deposits.

He said the world was exploring shale gas and oil and Pakistan also wanted to harness that potential. “We have asked OGDC (Oil and Gas Development Company) and PPL (Pakistan Petroleum Limited) to extract shale gas and oil from a well in order to determine its cost.”

A policy for shale deposits will be formulated after the cost of drilling is determined.


According to Abbasi, Pakistan has 20 trillion cubic feet of conventional gas and 385 million barrels of oil. “Gas is enough to meet the needs for 15 years at the existing pace of production,” he said.

Adviser to Ministry of Petroleum Zaid Muzaffar revealed that OGDC was working on one conventional gas well in a bid to find shale gas and oil. “We hope it will get results in two to three months.”

A well needs $2 to $3 million of additional cost to reach the shale reserves.

Gas supply in winter

Abbasi said gas would be available in Punjab to domestic consumers only and liquefied natural gas (LNG) would be consumed to run power and fertiliser plants.


Compressed natural gas (CNG) stations may get LNG if it was available and captive power plants would also be switched to this fuel, he said.

The minister stressed that the petroleum ministry had followed a transparent process in the award of LNG contract. It has provided all information to the National Accountability Bureau, which has asked for a presentation.

He revealed that the ministry had sent a summary to the Economic Coordination Committee for deregulating oil prices, but it was turned down. “We are looking at the petroleum situation again to assess whether it should be deregulated or not.”

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## RiazHaq

Drilling of first #shale oil& gas wells starts in #Sindh, #Pakistan: Minister Abbasi | Business Recorder Drilling of first shale oil/gas well starts in Sindh: Abbasi | Business Recorder …

The state-owned Exploration and Production (E&P) companies; Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), have started drilling of country''s first ever shale oil/gas well in Sindh. This was stated by Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who was flanked by State Minister for Petroleum Jam Kamal Khan and Advisor Petroleum Ministry Zahid Muzafar, while addressing a press conference here ion Thursday. 

He said that in a new study undertaken by Director General Petroleum Concession (DGPC) with financial support from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) the shale gas revised in place resources of the country stand at 10,159 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) against previous estimated resources of 586 TCF. The minister said that out of this an estimated 200 TCF of shale gas resources are recoverable against 105 TCF of previous study. 

Advisor Petroleum Ministry Zahid Muzafar, who is also Chairman Board of Directors OGDCL, in response to a question on the completion of first shale oil/gas well of the country said that it would be completed within four to five months and after the completion of first well the government will be in a position to determine wellhead price for shale gas/oil. He added that it would be around $10 per Million British Thermal Unit and on the basis of the pilot project the government will devise shale oil/gas policy to formally invite the local as well as international E&P companies to invest in the sector. Abbasi said that the new study had put the shale oil resources at 2,323 Billions of Stock Tank Barrels (BSTB) of which technically recoverable resources were 58 BSTB and risked technically recoverable resources estimated at 14 BSTB. 

----

Talking to reporters on the occasion DGPC Saeedullah Shah said that the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) in April 2011 reported presence of 206 TCF Shale Gas in Place Resource in Lower Indus Basin out of which 51 TCF were technically recoverable. However, in June 2013, USEIA revised Shale Gas resource in Pakistan as 586 TCF in place out of which 105 TCF were tipped as risked technically recoverable and also included 9.1 Billion Barrel Shale Oil risked technically recoverable resource out of 227 Billion Barrel Shale Oil in place. 

The DGPC added that to get authenticate Shale Gas Resources in the country, Shale Gas Study with financial support from USAID was initiated in January 2014. The objectives of the study were to (i) validate Shale Gas Resource estimate of USEIA, (ii) assess availability of required technology and infrastructure for Shale Gas operations and (iii) formulate guidelines for Shale Gas Policy. The study was completed in November 2015 with a total cost of $2.2 millions. The study covered lower and middle Indus basin which geographically spread over Sindh and southern part of Punjab and eastern part of Balochistan province. Total area under the study was 271,700 km, which constitutes 33 percent of total sedimentary area of Pakistan. Under the study, detailed analysis of 124 wells were carried out including laboratory analysis on Shale Cores and Cuttings in USA. The study has confirmed presence of substantial Shale Gas and Shale Oil as under: 

In place resource: Free gas (TCF), 3,778, adsorbed gas (TCF), 6,381Total gas (TCF), 10,159 and Oil (BSTB), 2,323 of which technically recoverable resource include free gas 188 TCF and Oil 58 BSTB. Risked technically recoverable resources are free gas 95 TCF and oil 14 BSTB.

*Pak shale gas, oil reserve far higher than past estimate*

Pakistan has around 200 trillion cubic feet of recoverable reserve of natural gas and around 58 billion barrels of oil in its shale structure which is higher than estimated previously, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources said.

Sharing findings of a recent Shale Gas Study, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said the new data shows that reserves were many times larger than existing conventional gas reserves of around 20 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and 385 million barrels of oil.

A shale gas study initiated in January 2014 with the support of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) had been completed, proving that Pakistan had 10,159 TCF of shale gas resource and 2,323 billion barrels of shale oil.

“The conclusion (of the study) is that Pakistan has huge potential of shale gas and oil which is much bigger than previous estimates of the United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA) and technology is available at home to produce this resource,” he said.

He also said the USEIA had reported in April 2011 the presence of 206 TCF shale gas in lower Indus Basin out of which 51 TCF was termed technically recoverable.

USEIA in June 2013 revised it saying that the shale gas resource was at 586 TCF, out of which 105 TCF was tipped as risked technically recoverable.

It also included 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil risked technically recoverable out of 227 billion barrels shale oil in place.

Abbasi said Pakistan’s conventional oil and gas exploration technology could be used for exploiting shale oil and gas but it still needed more advanced technology for exploiting shale oil and gas resource on a larger scale.

He said that the exploration of shale reserves involves huge cost and two local companies Oil and gas Development Corporation Limited and Pakistan petroleum were asked to explore shale gas and oil from one well to determine the cost.

Once exploited, the new reserves will change the economic landscape of Pakistan, which is suffering massive energy shortages.–PTI


Pak shale gas, oil reserve far higher than past estimate | IndiaPost


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## Samlee

*Pakistan has 10,159 tcf of shale gas deposits: USAID *

*ISLAMABAD: 
Pakistan has massive deposits of 10,159 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of shale gas and 2.3 trillion barrels of oil – estimates that are several times higher than figures given by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), reveals a study conducted with the help of US Agency for International Development (USAID).

EIA had reported in April 2011 that 206 tcf of shale gas was present in the lower Indus Basin, of which 51 tcf were technically recoverable.

Rajgarh: Gas and water supply issues hot on the agenda

However, in June 2013, EIA revised the estimate upwards to 586 tcf, of which 105 tcf were tipped as technically recoverable. Apart from gas, EIA also saw the presence of 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil that were technically recoverable out of the estimated deposits of 227 billion barrels.

Speaking at a press conference, Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said the study was undertaken with the support of USAID in January 2014, and was completed in November this year.

He said the study confirmed that Pakistan had 10,159 tcf of shale gas and 2,323 billion barrels of oil reserves.

Iran has not much gas for sale, Pakistan must act swiftly

“Risked technically recoverable resource is 95 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 14 billion barrels of shale oil,” Abbasi said, adding the data of 1,611 wells had been collected and shale formation of 1,312 wells was done through drilling.

He said 70% of data was used to develop the study and samples were sent to the New Tech laboratory in Houston, US for assessment. “Pakistan has the potential to produce shale gas and oil, which is more than expectations,” he remarked.

Abbasi insisted that the technology in Pakistan for exploring conventional oil and gas deposits could also be used for extracting shale reserves. Still, more technology was required for producing shale oil and gas on a large scale.

China-funded LNG project to turn into Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline: petroleum minister

He cited environmental issues, provision of water and high cost of drilling as the real challenges. A well requires 3 to 8 million barrels of water.

“We have water but the real issue is its disposal,” he said, adding shale gas would cost $10 per million British thermal units. However, the cost will come down with the increase in recovery of untapped deposits.

He said the world was exploring shale gas and oil and Pakistan also wanted to harness that potential. “We have asked OGDC (Oil and Gas Development Company) and PPL (Pakistan Petroleum Limited) to extract shale gas and oil from a well in order to determine its cost.”

A policy for shale deposits will be formulated after the cost of drilling is determined.

Winter is coming, gas supply is going

According to Abbasi, Pakistan has 20 trillion cubic feet of conventional gas and 385 million barrels of oil. “Gas is enough to meet the needs for 15 years at the existing pace of production,” he said.

Adviser to Ministry of Petroleum Zaid Muzaffar revealed that OGDC was working on one conventional gas well in a bid to find shale gas and oil. “We hope it will get results in two to three months.”

A well needs $2 to $3 million of additional cost to reach the shale reserves.

Gas supply in winter

Abbasi said gas would be available in Punjab to domestic consumers only and liquefied natural gas (LNG) would be consumed to run power and fertiliser plants.

Pakistan, Russia sign gas pipeline agreement

Compressed natural gas (CNG) stations may get LNG if it was available and captive power plants would also be switched to this fuel, he said.

The minister stressed that the petroleum ministry had followed a transparent process in the award of LNG contract. It has provided all information to the National Accountability Bureau, which has asked for a presentation.

He revealed that the ministry had sent a summary to the Economic Coordination Committee for deregulating oil prices, but it was turned down. “We are looking at the petroleum situation again to assess whether it should be deregulated or not.”

Published in The Express Tribune, November 20th, 2015*
*Pakistan has 10,159 tcf of shale gas deposits: USAID - The Express Tribune*

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## surya kiran

First Thar coal was supposed to be the answer to all maladies. Now shale. Next will be uranium.

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## RiazHaq

surya kiran said:


> First Thar coal was supposed to be the answer to all maladies. Now shale. Next will be uranium.



Short term answer for Pakistan is LNG which is really cheap due to its glut right now. 

Haq's Musings: Will Pakistan Benefit From LNG Glut Pushing Prices to New Lows?

LNG spot prices hit a new low of $4 per mmBTU as the supply continues to significantly outstrip demand. It's creating opportunities for Pakistan to get access to large supply of cheap fuel for its power generation.

With softening demand from China and 130 million tons per year (mmpta) of additional LNG supply set to reach market over the next five years, gas research firm Wood Mackenzie sees continuing downward pressure on global LNG spot prices. 




LNG Price History Source: WSJ



“The entire industry is worried because it is hard to tell when China’s demand will pick up again,” said an LNG strategist at a Malaysian energy company who attended the Wood Mackenzie conference in Singapore, according to Wall Street Journal. “Rising demand from smaller countries such as Pakistan, Egypt and Bangladesh is not enough to offset the declining demand from north Asia.”

As recently as two years ago, LNG shipped to big North Asian countries like Japan and Korea sold at around $15 to $16 a million British thermal units. This month, the price has already hit $6.65 a million BTUs, down 12% from September, according to research firm Energy Aspects. It expects prices to fall further in Asia next year, to under $6 per million BTUs, as a wave of new gas supply in countries from the U.S. to Angola to Australia comes on line, according to Wall Street Journal.

Petronet LNG Ltd, India’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is saving so much money buying the commodity from the spot market that it’s willing to risk penalties for breaking long-term contracts with Qatar.

This is a great opportunity for Pakistan to take advantage of historically low LNG prices to alleviate its severe load-shedding of gas and electricity. Recently, Pakistan has launched its first LNG import terminal in Karachi and started receiving shipments from Qatar. Pakistan has also signed a $2 billion deal with Russians to build a north-south pipeline from Gwadar to Lahore. But the country needs to rapidly build up capacity to handle imports and distribution of significant volumes of LNG needed to resolve itsacute long-running energy crisis.







Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Twin Energy Crises of Gas and Electricity

Affordable Fuel For Pakistan's Power Generation

Pakistan Shale Oil and Gas Deposits

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 

Blackouts and Bailouts in Energy Rich Pakistan

Pakistanis Suffer Load Shedding While IPPs Profits Surge

Haq's Musings: Will Pakistan Benefit From LNG Glut Pushing Prices to New Lows?

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## surya kiran

RiazHaq said:


> Short term answer for Pakistan is LNG which is really cheap due to its glut right now.



Yes. But you need to sign the contract, instead of just discussing it. I think the below article will interest you and
@niaz 


Oil prices and the Syrian civil war

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## Clutch

pakdefender said:


> I did some research on process of fracking and extraction of gas from shale rock formations.
> 
> This method is potentially very hazardous to the environment. As part of the fracking process mixture of water , sand and different chemicals is pumped down the bore into the share rock.
> 
> Water and Sand are benign but the Chemicals include Beryllium , Arsenic ( Highly poisonous ) and even Radons ( which is Radi active ). This mixture is pumped in to cause the fractures but it is also pumped out and it becomes so toxic that nothing more can be done with , no recycling.
> 
> Fracking process has been known since 1940 , so its not new. Haliburton ( of Dick Cheny fame ) pioneered this method and process , in the United States 60% of the gas comes from shale gas.
> 
> In states like Pennsylvania environmental damage has already been recorded.
> 
> United States is and industrialized country and their land mass is very large so maybe they can afford to damage their environment
> 
> Even though the bore made for shale gas extraction is very deep up 6000 feet below ground , groundwater is at about 50 to 100 feet , still the pipe goes through the aquifer and chemicals can leak into groundwater. Finally when all the gas from the shale well is extracted , to close off the well the toxic mixture is poured back into the well and sealed off, which can seep back into the groundwater and soil.
> 
> Pakistan is an agricultural country and if we pump poison down into the Indus basin , which is the bread basket , then the damage could be immense.





pakdefender said:


> I did some research on process of fracking and extraction of gas from shale rock formations.
> 
> This method is potentially very hazardous to the environment. As part of the fracking process mixture of water , sand and different chemicals is pumped down the bore into the share rock.
> 
> Water and Sand are benign but the Chemicals include Beryllium , Arsenic ( Highly poisonous ) and even Radons ( which is Radi active ). This mixture is pumped in to cause the fractures but it is also pumped out and it becomes so toxic that nothing more can be done with , no recycling.
> 
> Fracking process has been known since 1940 , so its not new. Haliburton ( of Dick Cheny fame ) pioneered this method and process , in the United States 60% of the gas comes from shale gas.
> 
> In states like Pennsylvania environmental damage has already been recorded.
> 
> United States is and industrialized country and their land mass is very large so maybe they can afford to damage their environment
> 
> Even though the bore made for shale gas extraction is very deep up 6000 feet below ground , groundwater is at about 50 to 100 feet , still the pipe goes through the aquifer and chemicals can leak into groundwater. Finally when all the gas from the shale well is extracted , to close off the well the toxic mixture is poured back into the well and sealed off, which can seep back into the groundwater and soil.
> 
> Pakistan is an agricultural country and if we pump poison down into the Indus basin , which is the bread basket , then the damage could be immense.




Hi folks…. I haven’t posted for a while but decided to do so to clear some very blatant misconceptions and fears surrounding the hydraulic fracturing process (fracking) from tight rocks (shales etc).

1. Are there risks associated with fracking? Yes. But are these risks greater than other mineral mining processes? No. The environmental footprint of surface mining is probably as destructive if not worse than the dreaded fracking.
2. Basic procedure of hydraulic fracturing is pumping in high pressured polymer water mixture (aka pad) followed by propane (sand of a specific date diameter size). The other idea is to injec fluids beyond the rock fracture pressures and create a fracture matrix to increase the permeability to allow the trapped hydrocarbons to flow to the wellbore. Water polymer mixture may contain toxins as described in a post above. But more environmentally friendly frac fluid are being developed and utilized at an increasing rate.
3. The problem with fracking is that most of action is taking place subsurface which leads to speculation by environmentalists while surface mining damage is mostly visible.
4. I would recommend fracturing be banned anything above than 150 meters below Base of Groundwater. Fracking should also be restricted in areas where there are geological faults and above than normal insitu stresses. Especially close to the Himalayan range. Fracking can cause induced seismicity.
5. As long as the Caprock (the rock formation above the shale) is not penetrated (this can be done through proper frac design ie minifrac) and through proper core sample analysis, and as long as the base of groundwater is safeguarded…. Then fracking is a very viable technology.
6. True… fracking technology has been around since the 1940s…. But now they are drilling the horizontal wells which are in the shape of an L …. And the horizontal section can be over 2km long! And they are fracking that horizontal section with 20 to even +40 stages stages of fracs per well… this have been unheard of even 5 years ago.
In your analysis you state that after the production from a frac well they dispose for the frac fluid back into the same well. This could not be further from the truth. Disposal of frac fluid in the same well will be technically very difficult. Ideally disposal os into a permeable depleted reservoir where migration of fluids into another permeable zones is highly unlikely. 
7. Yes, Pakistan allow shale development… but make sure you have proper regulations are in place!

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## RiazHaq

surya kiran said:


> Yes. But you need to sign the contract, instead of just discussing it. I think the below article will interest you and
> @niaz
> 
> 
> Oil prices and the Syrian civil war



It's not wise to sign a long term purchase agreement when LNG prices are falling due to glut in the LNG spot market. 

Pakistan should wait until the spot market price stabilizes.

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## Clutch

RiazHaq said:


> It's not wise to sign a long term purchase agreement when LNG prices are falling due to glut in the LNG spot market.
> 
> Pakistan should wait until the spot market price stabilizes.



Actually right now is the best time to lock-in with long term contracts. Prices for oil and gas are almost at the cost of producing a bbl of oil/gas. Any further decline will mean shutin wells.


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## Amaa'n

Clutch said:


> Hi folks…. I haven’t posted for a while but decided to do so to clear some very blatant misconceptions and fears surrounding the hydraulic fracturing process (fracking) from tight rocks (shales etc).
> 
> 1. Are there risks associated with fracking? Yes. But are these risks greater than other mineral mining processes? No. The environmental footprint of surface mining is probably as destructive if not worse than the dreaded fracking.
> 2. Basic procedure of hydraulic fracturing is pumping in high pressured polymer water mixture (aka pad) followed by propane (sand of a specific date diameter size). The other idea is to injec fluids beyond the rock fracture pressures and create a fracture matrix to increase the permeability to allow the trapped hydrocarbons to flow to the wellbore. Water polymer mixture may contain toxins as described in a post above. But more environmentally friendly frac fluid are being developed and utilized at an increasing rate.
> 3. The problem with fracking is that most of action is taking place subsurface which leads to speculation by environmentalists while surface mining damage is mostly visible.
> 4. I would recommend fracturing be banned anything above than 150 meters below Base of Groundwater. Fracking should also be restricted in areas where there are geological faults and above than normal insitu stresses. Especially close to the Himalayan range. Fracking can cause induced seismicity.
> 5. As long as the Caprock (the rock formation above the shale) is not penetrated (this can be done through proper frac design ie minifrac) and through proper core sample analysis, and as long as the base of groundwater is safeguarded…. Then fracking is a very viable technology.
> 6. True… fracking technology has been around since the 1940s…. But now they are drilling the horizontal wells which are in the shape of an L …. And the horizontal section can be over 2km long! And they are fracking that horizontal section with 20 to even +40 stages stages of fracs per well… this have been unheard of even 5 years ago.
> In your analysis you state that after the production from a frac well they dispose for the frac fluid back into the same well. This could not be further from the truth. Disposal of frac fluid in the same well will be technically very difficult. Ideally disposal os into a permeable depleted reservoir where migration of fluids into another permeable zones is highly unlikely.
> 7. Yes, Pakistan allow shale development… but make sure you have proper regulations are in place!


couldn't agree more with you on this, if Govt allows the MNCs to have their way without defining proper standards & procedures in place - which by the is the standard practice in Well Operator in Pakistan these days - then things are going to end up bad for us.
All lot of Fracking companies are into the research these days to reuse the 'Gray Water' for Fracking, same as we do with ' Drilling Fluids' where 'Cutting Pit' water is used for creating more Drilling Fluid......
I mean Conventional & Non conventional Drilling Wells are Non - Environmental friendly too especially with use of Oil Based Mud o / OBM but i hear nobody making fuss about that.....
so it all comes down the Regulatory bodies that how well they handle the Well Operators.

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## Samlee

surya kiran said:


> First Thar coal was supposed to be the answer to all maladies. Now shale. Next will be uranium.




If You Stop Worrying About Pakistan And Start Worrying About India Your Country Just Might Become 'Incredible'

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## surya kiran

Samlee said:


> If You Stop Worrying About Pakistan And Start Worrying About India Your Country Just Might Become 'Incredible'


Maybe if you stop trolling and contribute something, this thread will be much better.


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## denel

niaz said:


> Abandoning fracking due to fear water pollution for an energy starved country without thorough investigation is being naïve.
> 
> USA is a strong agricultural country as well. Annual production of wheat more than 50-million tons, but USA is the world leader in fracking. Even UK has strong farming base. In 2014 UK output was about 16-million tons of wheat & 7-millions of barley, however UK gov’t gave go ahead to fracking in July 2014 after lengthy public hearings.
> 
> The debate about fracking is nothing new. We must realize that every industry and activity including building Dams has its pro’s & con’s. The question is of estimating whether potential benefits are higher than the adverse effects. In my opinion the matter should be thoroughly debated in public forums but with real experts in the environment, agriculture & energy filed. Little knowledge is a dangerous thing and I don’t mean people who become self-claimed experts after reading a couple articles but those who have spent their lifetime in their respective discipline.
> 
> In most US agricultural areas, ground water is already severely polluted by the poultry, agricultural runoffs.
> 
> The following link provides an insight into Fracking for layman.
> 
> The environmental costs and benefits of fracking: The state of research - Journalist's Resource Journalist's Resource
> 
> Personally, I would go for it but in stages. That is, Pakistanis engineers need to gain operational experience and learnt to cope with the potential hazards by operating only one or two sites for a couple years before going full steam ahead.


Friend, it is a known issue with fracking and that industry remains tight lipped with the chemicals used.
Given the climate change and challenges with water scarcity, do you want to jepardise water security for every day folks who rely on ground water. It is too niave and silly to gamble away unless it lines the pockets of niche few at the expense of the majority. Furthermore, if you read up further it only produces a tiny amount and wells need to be continously drilled.
Instead focus of renewables e.g. solar, wind - you are blessed with both - use it.
Dont fall pray to US flavour of the day phenomena please.


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## surya kiran

balixd said:


> couldn't agree more with you on this, if Govt allows the MNCs to have their way without defining proper standards & procedures in place - which by the is the standard practice in Well Operator in Pakistan these days - then things are going to end up bad for us.
> All lot of Fracking companies are into the research these days to reuse the 'Gray Water' for Fracking, same as we do with ' Drilling Fluids' where 'Cutting Pit' water is used for creating more Drilling Fluid......
> I mean Conventional & Non conventional Drilling Wells are Non - Environmental friendly too especially with use of Oil Based Mud o / OBM but i hear nobody making fuss about that.....
> so it all comes down the Regulatory bodies that how well they handle the Well Operators.



I think, what is required is a vision document. Divide this into 3 phases. Immediate solution, projects which are in progress and future projects.

1. Immediate solution
How to provide fuel to existing plants. How will the finances be fixed. Signing the deals. There is a possibilty of slightly higher fuel prices, but, will help in bringing about a control on the power sector. You will also need to define areas of importance. Like which industries will be given priority and which geopgraphical areas will be given priority.

2, Projects which are in progress
Open it to international private players. Let them get the funding. Close funding of current projects.

3. Future
Move towards setting up infrastructure for solar, wind and nuclear energy. Not to mention tidal.


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## Bilal.

surya kiran said:


> First Thar coal was supposed to be the answer to all maladies. Now shale. Next will be uranium.



Thar is going just fine. Project financing has been secured and work on mine and mine mouth power plant is expected to be competed by 2018.

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## Samlee

surya kiran said:


> Maybe if you stop trolling and contribute something, this thread will be much better.




This Thread Is Already A Lovely It Only Gets Polluted When You Indians Just Can't Mind You Business And Have To But In

And FYI I Am Already A Contributor


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## surya kiran

Samlee said:


> This Thread Is Already A Lovely It Only Gets Polluted When You Indians Just Can't Mind You Business And Have To But In
> 
> And FYI I Am Already A Contributor



Then pay attention to what is already contributed to the thread by me, before jumping up and down. And what I had said was perfectly sensible. And do not quote me again. 

Good evening.


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## Talwar e Pakistan

jbgt90 said:


> search in pdf , they keep cropping up . recently one came up started by one of our Mods in 2008, people were still discussing it but no steps taken to extract it.
> Thar coal mining project in Pakistan | Updates & Discussions.
> New way of using Thir coal devised by PCSIR
> there are more . but i am in the office and dont have time to search.



Yes... and utilizing Coal is also in the checklist of CPEC. Everything does not happen within a half-second. It takes years. Most of Pakistan is unexplored (resource wise) and untapped.


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## T90TankGuy

Talwar e Pakistan said:


> Yes... and utilizing Coal is also in the checklist of CPEC. Everything does not happen within a half-second. It takes years. Most of Pakistan is unexplored (resource wise) and untapped.


You are replying to a two yr old post of mine now?


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## ConcealCarry

So its ok for india to keep developing/making Arjun Tank and LCA fighter jet for more than 40 and 30 years respectively but you want Pakistan to extract all their natural resources within 6 years?

Did it ever occurred to you that it takes a lot of planning and investment in extracting natural resources and we might not have the required technology or the funding to start these projects at this time?



jbgt90 said:


> Been hearing about big discoveries for the past 6 yrs in Pakistan . no utilization though.


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## T90TankGuy

ConcealCarry said:


> So its ok for india to keep developing/making Arjun Tank and LCA fighter jet for more than 40 and 30 years respectively but you want Pakistan to extract all their natural resources within 6 years?
> 
> *Did it ever occurred to you that it takes a lot of planning and investment in extracting natural resources and we might not have the required technology or the funding to start these projects at this time?*


When you do not understand the context i wrote in then please do not quote me . 
And you have answered my own view on the matter with the line above.


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## Talwar e Pakistan

jbgt90 said:


> You are replying to a two yr old post of mine now?


Yes, I am.


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## niaz

It may be pertinent to point out that our erstwhile neighbour India plans to invest $5-billion on the Oil & Gas exploration.

I came across the following piece of news.

ASIA-PACIFIC India will investigate its offshore gas and oil reserves, the UPI report. ONGC will spend in excess of $5bn over the next four years developing two cluster developments at east coast reserves. Over the past 12 months oil demand has grown by 7% in India. »

http://bit.ly/2dK4zyJ


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## Kabira

update, work is still going on

*GOVT TAKING STEPS TO EXPLORE SHALE GAS RESOURCES ACROSS COUNTRY*
Posted by Parvez Jabri


 

 






28





ISLAMABAD: The government has been taking effective steps to explore and exploit shale gas resources in the country.

According to Radio Pakistan, official sources said that the US Aid Energy Policy Programme has been engaged for geological assessment of shale gas resources in Pakistan by utilizing high-tech interpretation software, existing well fogs, and geo-chemical reports.

Besides, sweet spots for shale gas exploration have been identified at various places in the country.

An interim shale gas policy is being prepared for pilot projects to test the identified sweet areas.

Final shale gas policy will be formulated for exploration and exploitation of shale gas and shale oil in the country based on the results of the pilot projects.



*Copyright APP (Associated Press of Pakistan), 2016*


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## Shahzaz ud din

Can some body shed the light on the Methane hydrates, also called "flammable ice reserves at sea in Pakistan?


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## niaz

Despite being in the Energy field; I admit that I know very little about methane hydrates except that these are crystalline compounds in which gas molecules are trapped inside the lattice of ice crystals. My understanding was that such deposits would be more widespread in the permafrost regions of the countries like Canada & Russia. But then there would be hell of lot of information about many other sources of energy that I am totally ignorant of.

A few years ago I remember coming across a news item in Dawn about gas on an island of Makran cost. However this is a new technology and possibly for use in future as I have not come across commercial exploitation of methane hydrates anywhere.

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## AZADPAKISTAN2009

Considering China/Russia are also great option for such cooperation why reward a Nation not even willing to let IMF help Pakistan

Why US firm is needed to stick their noses in Pakistan's national interest

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## denel

Shale drilling is bad news especially given how much reliant there is on aquifers. Unless you are willing to give up on drinking water for rural, then do the short term deed.
Here shale drilling is being banned for this very impact.

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## LeGenD

AZADPAKISTAN2009 said:


> Considering China/Russia are also great option for such cooperation why reward a Nation not even willing to let IMF help Pakistan
> 
> Why US firm is needed to stick their noses in Pakistan's national interest


American firms pioneered _shale extraction_, and they have greatest experience and safest practices in relation.

Shale extraction is an environmentally messy business! We should not experiment in this domain. Award contracts on the basis of merit, and not on the basis of geopolitical preferences. Many non-political Western firms out there.

Recall Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Plant project - we awarded it to an _inexperienced_ Chinese firm and end-result was 16 years of effort in completing it and a huge hike in costs over time. 

FYI: https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk...worlds-most-expensive-hydel-undertaking-ever/


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## CrazyZ

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/wast...shale-gas-oil-resources.610537/#post-11319092


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## Khafee

niaz said:


> Despite being in the Energy field; I admit that I know very little about methane hydrates except that these are crystalline compounds in which gas molecules are trapped inside the lattice of ice crystals. My understanding was that such deposits would be more widespread in the permafrost regions of the countries like Canada & Russia. But then there would be hell of lot of information about many other sources of energy that I am totally ignorant of.
> 
> A few years ago I remember coming across a news item in Dawn about gas on an island of Makran cost. However this is a new technology and possibly for use in future as I have not come across commercial exploitation of methane hydrates anywhere.


Your humility is refreshing. May Allah give you good health, lots of wealth, and peace of mind.

Best Regards

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## ghazi52



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## Kamikaze Pilot

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan has more shale oil than Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on June 13, 2013.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The US EIA report estimates Pakistan's total shale oil reserves at 227 billion barrels of which 9.1 billion barrels are technically recoverable with today's technology. In addition, the latest report says Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas of which 105 trillion cubic feet (up from 51 trillion cubic feet reported in 2011) is technically recoverable with current technology.
> 
> The top ten countries by shale oil reserves include Russia (75 billion barrels), United States (58 billion barrels), China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels), Libya (26 billion barrels), Venezuela (13 billion barrels), Mexico (13 billion barrels), Pakistan (9.1 billion barrels), Canada (8.8 billion barrels) and Indonesia (8 billion barrels).
> 
> Pakistan's current annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources could increase substantially in the future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: US EIA Report 2013
> 
> As can be seen in the shale resource map, most of Pakistan's shale oil and gas resources are located in the lower Indus basin region, particularly in Ranikot and Sembar shale formations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: US EIA Report 2013
> 
> Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The availability of large domestic shale oil and gas expands the opportunity to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imports to overcome the current energy crisis and to fuel the industrial economy. But it'll only be possible with high priority given to investments in developing the energy sector of the country.
> 
> Haq's Musings: US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels
> 
> Original Source:
> 
> EIA: Pakistan's Shale Oil & Gas reserves.


BAD NEWS FOR INDIA!!!

@Retired Troll

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## Adnanpindi

abcxyz0000 said:


> BAD NEWS FOR INDIA!!!
> 
> @Retired Troll


Likely shale oil and gas discovery in Pakistan


Col (R) Muhammad Hanif 
in Op-EdOn April 18, 2019

Referring to the information obtained from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, on Sediment Data in Pakistan, the SDPI, in its Draft Report 2019 has given the estimates of shale oil and gas reserves in Pakistan. According to this report, Pakistan has more than 827365 square kilometres (Kms) of the sedimentary basin area in southern Punjab, eastern Balochistan and Sindh (311607 square kms onshore and 216058 square kms offshore). This sedimentary area is enriched with thick sequences of shale formations as a source and has a proven petroleum system, comprising shale oil and gas.
According to a study conducted with the help of the USAID in 2015,Pakistan has massive deposits of 10,159 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 2.3 trillion barrels of oil. These estimates are several times higher than the figures given earlier by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA had reported in June 2013 that 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas were present in the lower Indus Basin, of which 105trillion cubic feet were technically recoverable. Apart from gas, EIA also saw the presence of 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil that were technically recoverable out of the estimated deposits of 227 billion barrels.
As part of the Government of Pakistan exploration plan for shale gas and oil,in January 2019, the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), ENI (an Italian oil and gas drilling company) and ExxonMobil (a US oil and gas drilling company) started drilling the first exploratory ultra-deep oil well Kekra-1 in offshore Indus G-Block, as a joint venture,near the Pakistan – Iran border.In this context, ExxonMobil’s entry in Pakistan is a major development asit brings with it a vast experience of deep and ultra-deep water drilling.
In view of the above discussed rich survey information and entry of the US oil giant ExxonMobil in the exploration effort, there is a strong possibility that the country may discover a very big offshore oil and gas reserves. The good news about the likely success in this exploration effort is expected to come soon, as was stated by the Prime Minister, Imran Khan. Based on surveys and prospect reports, the OGDCL chief believes the discovery could be evenlarger than that of Sui.

It can be safely predicted that like Saudi Arabia, that has signed an agreement to invest in Pakistan, including construction of as oil refinery at Gawadar, other countries, including Gulf nations would also like to invest in Pakistan oil and gas projects ranging from exploration, to refining and logistics

If the above prediction comes true and a large scale oil and gas is discovered in Pakistan, this would be a major breakthrough and a game changer for Pakistan and the entire region, as it might lead other international energy firms to bring foreign investment in Pakistan’s energy sector. The discovery would accrue many economic and strategic advantages to Pakistan. While it will help Pakistan in meeting its big energy shortages, the country would also start exporting oil and gas, thus earning a lot of foreign exchange.
The cheaper energy availability will also help in reviving Pakistan’s industry, and enhancing exports.The revenue coming due to exports will help in resolving the issues of balance of payments, addressing the circular debt issue, addressing budget deficits and paying the foreign debt. Likewise, Pakistan will also become free of getting foreign loans. And, faster economic development helped by the oil revenues, and CPEC boosted exports will enable Pakistan to address poverty and achieve prosperity.
The Global Times have also carried the news of likely shale oil and gas discovery in Pakistan and its positive impact on Pakistan’s economy.The newspaper has commented that a big oil and gas discovery will stimulate the Chinese companies to invest in Pakistan’s shale and gas sector, adding that China is willing to support Pakistan’s efforts to seize the development opportunity such a find might bring, and handle any challenges.
In this regard, it can be safely predicted that like Saudi Arabia, who has signed an agreement to invest in Pakistan, including construction of as oil refinery at Gawadar, other countries, including Gulf nations would also like to invest in Pakistanoil and gas projects ranging from exploration, to refining and logistics.In this context, apart from the construction of the CPEC related oil and gas pipeline by China, oil and gas pipelines from Pakistan will also be laid to other regional countries, thus addressing their energy shortages and stimulating regional energy connectivity, economic growth and trade, thus encouraging the regional economic integration and development. .
As Pakistan’s economy would become substantial, it will enable it to strengthen its defence, which will enable it to exercise its sovereignty at the international stage. A strong Pakistan will become strategically an important regional and world player, and therefore, will contribute in a major way towards keeping regional peace and stability, and also do a lot more for international peacekeeping.
The writer is an ex-Army Colonel, a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow, Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad

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## SSGcommandoPAK




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## waraich66

RiazHaq said:


> Pakistan has more shale oil than Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on June 13, 2013.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The US EIA report estimates Pakistan's total shale oil reserves at 227 billion barrels of which 9.1 billion barrels are technically recoverable with today's technology. In addition, the latest report says Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas of which 105 trillion cubic feet (up from 51 trillion cubic feet reported in 2011) is technically recoverable with current technology.
> 
> The top ten countries by shale oil reserves include Russia (75 billion barrels), United States (58 billion barrels), China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels), Libya (26 billion barrels), Venezuela (13 billion barrels), Mexico (13 billion barrels), Pakistan (9.1 billion barrels), Canada (8.8 billion barrels) and Indonesia (8 billion barrels).
> 
> Pakistan's current annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources could increase substantially in the future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: US EIA Report 2013
> 
> As can be seen in the shale resource map, most of Pakistan's shale oil and gas resources are located in the lower Indus basin region, particularly in Ranikot and Sembar shale formations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: US EIA Report 2013
> 
> Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The availability of large domestic shale oil and gas expands the opportunity to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imports to overcome the current energy crisis and to fuel the industrial economy. But it'll only be possible with high priority given to investments in developing the energy sector of the country.
> 
> Haq's Musings: US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels
> 
> Original Source:
> 
> EIA: Pakistan's Shale Oil & Gas reserves.


Canada dont have much shale oil as compared to USA .


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## litman

news on 92 news. no oil and gas reserved found and they are closing the well.


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## Invincible007

litman said:


> news on 92 news. no oil and gas reserved found and they are closing the well.


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## POPEYE-Sailor

لو یوتھیوں۔۔ ایک اور پھکی۔۔ 14 ارب ڈوب گئے ۔۔ سمندر میں

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## 1Paki$tani

Any update on this? I thought the reports were still not out and since then things have gone silent?


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## razgriz19

Canada has a shit load of oil. I work for one of the major oil companies in the world 


waraich66 said:


> Canada dont have much shale oil as compared to USA .

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## litman

i think they havent found anything so now the govt is quiet on this topic. IK once again has shown immaturity in this matter by making tall claims and now he has an embarrassing situation.


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## ghazi52

ISLAMABAD - Brisk drilling was in progress at the first shale gas and oil well near Hyderabad city of the Sindh province to acquire geological and engineering data for further planning of the pilot project. “The drilling, started on December 14, 2019 at the Shale gas well, KUC-01 (Kunar Unconventional-1), is in progress. As of January 30, 2020 the well was drilled to depth of 2,487 meters that will be taken to 3,910 meters in Chiltan formation,” according to an official document available with APP. Currently, the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and United Energy Petroleum Limited (UEPL) are undertaking shale gas & oil exploration projects in Sindh Province. A study, completed in collaboration with United States Agency for International Development in 2015, had identified massive deposits of shale gas and oil, which needed further evaluation to determine the cost of extraction. According to the EIA Shale Gas Assessment Report 2015 (USA); Pakistan has around 105 Trillion Cubic Feet of recoverable shale gas and 9.1 Billion Barrels of recoverable shale oil resources. The successful exploitation of shale gas could provide Pakistan with a sustainable supply of natural gas and oil (against EIA estimated recoverable gas resources), the OGDCL observed before initiating the drilling work. Pakistan’s estimated natural gas demand stood at about 7-8 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (BCFD), out of which less than 4 BCFD was being produced locally. *“*There is 50 percent of gas shortfall in the energy mix needs of the country.” The OGDCL had clarified that the identified resources were not booked as “reserves” and needed to be further rationalized through additional technical information regarding the Shale Reservoir.

The Nation


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## Thamizh Puli

are they fracking ?


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## niaz

Thamizh Puli said:


> are they fracking ?



Say 'Goodbye' to fracking and shale oil for the time being. You need about $45 per bbl oil to barely B/E. At $20 per bbl Brent, who would sink tens of millions in new Shale/Tight oil/gas fields? Aptly mentioned in the FT:

"Shale thrives at $100 a barrel, survives at $50, and dies at $25"

Jamie Webster, BCG Center for Energy Impact

Full article:

*US shale bust wrecks hopes for energy independence *
https://www.ft.com/content/32ce6962-6e15-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

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## Thamizh Puli

niaz said:


> Say 'Goodbye' to fracking and shale oil for the time being. You need about $45 per bbl oil to barely B/E. At $20 per bbl Brent, who would sink tens of millions in new Shale/Tight oil/gas fields? Aptly mentioned in the FT:
> 
> "Shale thrives at $100 a barrel, survives at $50, and dies at $25"
> 
> Jamie Webster, BCG Center for Energy Impact
> 
> Full article:
> 
> *US shale bust wrecks hopes for energy independence *
> https://www.ft.com/content/32ce6962-6e15-11ea-89df-41bea055720b



indeed, I hope atleast this price crash kills of fracking. It is one of the worst things we can do to where we live


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## BATMAN

litman said:


> i think they havent found anything so now the govt is quiet on this topic. IK once again has shown immaturity in this matter by making tall claims and now he has an embarrassing situation.


Imran Khan and aides always have to sell some thing to public as a justification to hang in and divert attention from daily corruptions.









Pakistan stops much-celebrated offshore drilling as no oil and gas reserves found, Energy News, ET EnergyWorld


PM Imran Khan earlier this year said Pak won't need to import oil after reserves were found near Karachi coast.




energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com






niaz said:


> "Shale thrives at $100 a barrel, survives at $50, and dies at $25"


US invested billions in shale oil fields development, when oil prices were $100+ /barrel.
Now it's our turn to invest in shale oil but we have genius in PM who can't see money going to waste.
It's the same people, who mislead the public on solar energy... reference to propaganda on Quaid e Azam solar power field.

I can very conveniently declare that, ruling clergy is working for enemies of Pakistan.


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## Menace2Society

Is this true?

If Balochistan has proven reserves of oil and gas, then why the exploration, production and drilling activities have so far been too slower in the province? Why does the country still lack a comprehensive program for on-shore and off-shore oil exploration in Balochistan? What have been the snags, hurdles or constraints for tapping the energy resource potential of the province? Undeniably, shy investment in oil and gas sector and the security concerns in the province have been the key reasons for slower growth of the sector, but there is presumably another issue related to Iran’s reservation and concern over drilling of oil wells in Balochistan. Balochistan borders Iran, which is rich in oil and gas resources.* Some observers believe that discovery and drilling of oil wells in Balochistan may cause the Iran’s oil to flow towards the province, which is physically located below the level of surface in Iran. Some independent analysts have even claimed that Pakistan is bound for not drilling oil wells in southern Balochistan under a deal with Iran, as the neighboring country would lose most of its oil for its flow toward lower landscape*.

https://www.pakistangulfeconomist.com/2017/12/04/does-drilling-for-oil-in-balochistan-bother-iran/


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## Bilal.

Menace2Society said:


> Is this true?
> 
> If Balochistan has proven reserves of oil and gas, then why the exploration, production and drilling activities have so far been too slower in the province? Why does the country still lack a comprehensive program for on-shore and off-shore oil exploration in Balochistan? What have been the snags, hurdles or constraints for tapping the energy resource potential of the province? Undeniably, shy investment in oil and gas sector and the security concerns in the province have been the key reasons for slower growth of the sector, but there is presumably another issue related to Iran’s reservation and concern over drilling of oil wells in Balochistan. Balochistan borders Iran, which is rich in oil and gas resources.* Some observers believe that discovery and drilling of oil wells in Balochistan may cause the Iran’s oil to flow towards the province, which is physically located below the level of surface in Iran. Some independent analysts have even claimed that Pakistan is bound for not drilling oil wells in southern Balochistan under a deal with Iran, as the neighboring country would lose most of its oil for its flow toward lower landscape*.
> 
> https://www.pakistangulfeconomist.com/2017/12/04/does-drilling-for-oil-in-balochistan-bother-iran/


Irans oil reserves are on their western side. Nothing even close to Baluchistan. And if there is a “deal” where is our benefit from it? I mean the least we would have gotten would be free oil for our consumption.


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## AZ1

Menace2Society said:


> Is this true?
> 
> If Balochistan has proven reserves of oil and gas, then why the exploration, production and drilling activities have so far been too slower in the province? Why does the country still lack a comprehensive program for on-shore and off-shore oil exploration in Balochistan? What have been the snags, hurdles or constraints for tapping the energy resource potential of the province? Undeniably, shy investment in oil and gas sector and the security concerns in the province have been the key reasons for slower growth of the sector, but there is presumably another issue related to Iran’s reservation and concern over drilling of oil wells in Balochistan. Balochistan borders Iran, which is rich in oil and gas resources.* Some observers believe that discovery and drilling of oil wells in Balochistan may cause the Iran’s oil to flow towards the province, which is physically located below the level of surface in Iran. Some independent analysts have even claimed that Pakistan is bound for not drilling oil wells in southern Balochistan under a deal with Iran, as the neighboring country would lose most of its oil for its flow toward lower landscape*.
> 
> https://www.pakistangulfeconomist.com/2017/12/04/does-drilling-for-oil-in-balochistan-bother-iran/


engineers often gets attacked working there sone lost their lives.


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## fatman17

1TCF of gas reserves discovered in North Waziristan. Equivalent to 15% of total gas supply or production of Pakistan 🇵🇰.


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## Abid123

fatman17 said:


> 1TCF of gas reserves discovered in North Waziristan. Equivalent to 15% of total gas supply or production of Pakistan 🇵🇰.


Is this really true bro? I have heard similiar news before... Which turned out to be fake. If true we should not export. Keep it for our own needs.


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## fatman17

Abid123 said:


> Is this really true bro? I have heard similiar news before... Which turned out to be fake. If true we should not export. Keep it for our own needs.


Marri Gas has apparently made this discovery. Let's hope it is more than the estimated 1TcF


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## VCheng

fatman17 said:


> 1TCF of gas reserves discovered in North Waziristan. Equivalent to 15% of total gas supply or production of Pakistan 🇵🇰.



Premature estimates above:

"MPCL believes that this is a large gas/condensate discovery and first ever in North Waziristan, which is the result of an aggressive exploration strategy adopted by the company and supported by the Joint Venture partners. *Further appraisal however is required to confirm the extent and production potential of the discovery.*"


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## Jango

Too early to say anything.

As someone who worked on new explorations (DST), this is toooooo early to have an accurate estimate of the formation.

I am not a reservoir engineer, someone who is is better positioned to expand more on this, but after this initial flow, the flow is tested at various choke sizes to get an estimate of the the flow volumes.

Later on, once the well is completed, this well would be again tested with wireline and slickline tools (BHP/T gauges) to further study it's profile.

Moreover, this is more important, further appraisal wells will be drilled according to the drilling plan in the formation, to get an idea about the size of the reservoir and it's characteristics. DST's will be done, and so will other tests. 

1 well takes more or less 2-3 months to drill considering all goes to plan, so give or take 3-4 more well, we are looking at a year before we have a *good enough* idea about the reservoir. A year or two more before we actually start producing from it.

Let's hold on to our pants.

I have seen production engineers and company man get all excited and call the head office jab adhi choke par well flow kar raha tha and the flare was like a matchstick!

But still, this is encouraging news on the face of it, and Mari would be very relieved with this news kyunkay in kay apnay halat pichlay kuch arsay say zyada achay nhn ja rahay thay.

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