# CPEC a game changer ?



## A-Team

Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan. 

Some quick questions.

- What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ? 

- Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?

- What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks

/Peace


_______________________________________

http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949

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## Arsalan

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949


I wont use the word game changer as it have been abused so much already. However there is no question that if proper policies are implemented properly, Pakistan will have a lot to gain from this. Surely the project is being undertaken by China mainly and it is in there interest as well but it is not like that Pakistan will not benefit from all this.

One thing that people usually do not understand is that it is NOT just a road network, there is a lot more to it then that.

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## Taimur Khurram

CPEC won't be a quick fix to Pakistan, it's what will happen BECAUSE of CPEC that will ultimately change Pakistan.

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## Terminator

CPEC has been too much hyped in all Pakistani corners. I love they way pakistanis media experts are so euphoriatic abt the project and dreaming to be $20 trillion economy very soon.
On a brighter side, its an opportunity for the whole region to embark upon pragmatic economic ventures. The more we have trade & business conjunctions, lesser we will inclined towards war mongering snarls.

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## General General

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949


Well, most of it is energy projects. It has been established that energy deficit shaves off 1-2% from the GDP. On completion of these projects, the GDP of Pakistan will subsequently rise to 6-6.5% which is a significant pace. Other than that, availability of energy will provide investors with the confidence that their businesses will be able to function uninterrupted. On top of this, the tax-free region of Gawadar will also be an attractive place to set up businesses, especially for start-ups and small businesses. This is apart from the connectivity infrastructure being built across the country. Businesses will able to source materials and manpower from other cities more easily which improves productivity. I also read that several industrial and science parks are being constructed along major routes. This would provide ample office and resources for any company.
These points I have noted are related to Pakistan and it alone. I have not taken into consideration foreign investment as a response to these developments. Those factors can be explored by someone who has a better idea of the international market; the companies who are making good revenue and are looking to expand into new emerging markets.

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## weqi

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949



Chinese companies must consider feasibility of there government who inducted billions of dollars and there government and armies are well aware of the regional facts .

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## Rajaraja Chola

Depends more on the Chinese industries investing in Pakistan. Pakistan expects the industries to be a exporting manufacturing powerhouse. 
Again the Gwadar port depends upon the wish of the Chinese companies deciding to offload it there and transport through land. Its easily said. But lots of work to be done. Main work has to be done in convincing Chinese companies to invest such amounts and export it from Pakistan.


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## Who.Cares

What does India gain from building a $300M / 42MW dam in Afghanistan and investing on other small projects?

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## Akhill

I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...

local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.

and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.

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## Kambojaric

ISLAMABAD - The government would start 18 power projects under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) worth of over $27 billion, which would produce *13880 megawatts of electricity* in the country. There are 18 power projects under the CPEC having total estimated cost of $27.083 billion, according to the official documents.

http://nation.com.pk/business/18-Jul-2015/18-projects-under-cpec-to-generate-13-880mw

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## Talwar e Pakistan

Well it will stimulate the economy; property prices will soar, investments and revenues will pour in, massive development of infrastructure, and much more. Just a couple weeks ago, CPEC was expanded by 26 Billion dollars.

It would be much easier to manufacture goods and export them; this will positively stimulate our Industry and all sectors linked with it including agriculture. Demand will be high, forcing production to increase. 

It will have profound global effects. There will be a trade shift from South East Asia to Gwadar and will make Pakistan one of the highlights in International trade.

The Government has estimated that CPEC will add 2% to our economic growth.



Kambojaric said:


> ISLAMABAD - The government would start 18 power projects under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) worth of over $27 billion, which would produce *13880 megawatts of electricity* in the country. There are 18 power projects under the CPEC having total estimated cost of $27.083 billion, according to the official documents.
> 
> http://nation.com.pk/business/18-Jul-2015/18-projects-under-cpec-to-generate-13-880mw


Power projects are now at 53 Billion dollars

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## RealNapster

A-Team said:


> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?



Infrastructure.
Power supply.



A-Team said:


> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?



As far as i think . Answer is "NO" ..
i will discuss only one aspect. that is power production. leaving exports, Pakistani industry due to power cuts is unable to even serve nation. So most of "item's" are imported which create burden on foreign reserves. Pakistan will be able to remove that burden if our industry become able to even just satisfy nation's needs. which we can do with consistent power supply.



Arsalan said:


> One thing that people usually do not understand is that it is NOT just a road network, there is a lot more to it then that.



Agricultural Products. Fruits, vegetables, and others. from which (i think) 40-50% didn't make to export market due to lack of Dry and Cold storage's, processing units, and road infrastructure.



Akhill said:


> Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.



We leased it to Singapore. We took it back from them. they didn't fulfill there promise of modernizing gawadar port. 

Now we leasied it to Chinese. God Forbids, We can take it back if needed.



Talwar e Pakistan said:


> Power projects are now at 53 Billion dollars



sir i need more information on this. please elaborate. also provide sources.



Talwar e Pakistan said:


> The Government has estimated that CPEC will add 2% to our economic growth.



2018 onward.

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## Laozi

CPEC is truly a unique case.

CPEC is being financed by China and Chinese private sector in form of Direct Investments and Loans.

Pakistan is in no position to assure high rate of Interest or High profits to Chinese.

Therefore the onus is on China to make this project viable to get its money back.

But the dichotomy is that China is known for killing other nations Industries and creating jobs only for Chinese citizens

*OR*

There could be a different game plan altogether

Chinese will only build the Gwadar Port, CPEC's roads and pipelines infra as a part of their future Defence Strategy.

Chinese will not be looking at the economic viability of CPEC but look at it purely as Defence expenditure
*
ONLY TIME WILL TELL*

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## Taimoor Khan

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949






I will summaries it to you in lehman terms. When you create "mutual inter dependency" with a global power, you are only set to gain from it. Economic, trade, strategist, geopolitical, what not.

You Afghans should be asking, wheather you want to be part of this CPEC , integrate yourself via Pakistan to the world biggest market and economy, or you are happy to import your pan-parags from India via Charbahar?

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## A-Team

General General said:


> Well, most of it is energy projects. It has been established that energy deficit shaves off 1-2% from the GDP. On completion of these projects, the GDP of Pakistan will subsequently rise to 6-6.5% which is a significant pace. Other than that, availability of energy will provide investors with the confidence that their businesses will be able to function uninterrupted. On top of this, the tax-free region of Gawadar will also be an attractive place to set up businesses, especially for start-ups and small businesses. This is apart from the connectivity infrastructure being built across the country. Businesses will able to source materials and manpower from other cities more easily which improves productivity. I also read that several industrial and science parks are being constructed along major routes. This would provide ample office and resources for any company.
> These points I have noted are related to Pakistan and it alone. I have not taken into consideration foreign investment as a response to these developments. Those factors can be explored by someone who has a better idea of the international market; the companies who are making good revenue and are looking to expand into new emerging markets.



Lets also not forget Fiber optics which you guys can to charge a fee for China's Internet traffic. 
Afghanistan will gain by connecting to CPEC, in addition to connecting directly to China via Badakhshan.

All in all I see more positives because connectivity has a positive impact on the economy.

/Peace



RealNapster said:


> Infrastructure.
> Power supply.
> 
> As far as i think . Answer is "NO" ..
> i will discuss only one aspect. that is power production. leaving exports, Pakistani industry due to power cuts is unable to even serve nation. So most of "item's" are imported which create burden on foreign reserves. Pakistan will be able to remove that burden if our industry become able to even just satisfy nation's needs. which we can do with consistent power supply.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2018 onward.



Yes my first thoughts were also better Infra in terms of roads, railways networks and of course fiber optics.



Taimoor Khan said:


> I will summaries it to you in lehman terms. When you create "mutual inter dependency" with a global power, you are only set to gain from it. Economic, trade, strategist, geopolitical, what not.
> 
> You Afghans should be asking, wheather you want to be part of this CPEC , integrate yourself via Pakistan to the world biggest market and economy, or you are happy to import your pan-parags from India via Charbahar?



I consider you a troll and frankly not interested in any comments from you. Please don't bother!

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## Taimoor Khan

A-Team said:


> I consider you a troll and frankly not interested in any comments from you. Please don't bother!



You being a foreigner raising questions about the project which me being a Pakistan consider vital for the well being of my nation, so naturally, this will warrant a reply. I do consider you as troll but that wont stop me replying to you as this is forum which is read by many, and at the end of the day, its all about narrative and perception. What Pakistani narrative is must be understood and grasped by all including its adversaries, it help negate the propaganda against Pakistan and its interests.

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## LeGenD

@A-Team

CPEC is a promising project for Pakistan, if handled wisely. CPEC is expected to create new jobs, bolster revenue generation, improve infrastructure, and address a few other things in Pakistan.

However, we are not sure what are the terms of arrangement between China and Pakistan regarding settlement of loans.

CPEC won't make significant difference overnight. Its benefits will become apparent in the long-term (mostly after settlement of loans).

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## New Resolve

Sensing a lot of insecurity in the neighborhood wrt CPEC, makes the heart go fond.

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## Sky lord

@A-Team

There is also an 18% interest to be paid back starting next year and remember this corridor connects to Western China not the manufacturing hubs of Eastern China.

All the terms to China are extra ordinarily lenient, no transit fee on anything, tax free zones, special security etc. which will be paid for by the Pakistani tax payer.

Having said that there was no other alternative. Pakistani leadership has somehow managed to alienate every other country with interests in the neighborhood including Afghanistan.

The power, roads, ports will be beneficial so will experience gained by Pakistani talent IF they are employed in Chinese ventures. Hopefully the benefits are greater than the costs incurred in interest payments and support functions like extra security. It is definitely better than doing nothing.

Benefits to Afghanistan would be possible future export of your minerals to China overland. Connectivity is always good.

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## Chauvinist

Not a game changer but a game"creator" I guess.

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949




It's not the route but the massive energy, industrial and infrastructure projects that are ALREADY happening along the route which are providing jobs, opportunities and many world class facilities to our people. This we hope will have a domino affect across Pakistan. Already there are massive changes happening all over Pakistan that we're thought of as impossible just 2 years ago. CPEC will help boost Pakistan's economy, fulfil our energy needs and massively boost our manufacturing, technological and industrial capability. It will also give us an opportunity to ultimately make Pakistan a developed nation whereby ALL Pakistanis enjoy a high standard of living.

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## A-Team

LeGenD said:


> @A-Team
> 
> CPEC is a promising project for Pakistan, if handled wisely. CPEC is expected to create new jobs, bolster revenue generation, improve infrastructure, and address a few other things in Pakistan.
> 
> However, we are not sure what are the terms of arrangement between China and Pakistan regarding settlement of loans.
> 
> CPEC won't make significant difference overnight. Its benefits will become apparent in the long-term (mostly after settlement of loans).



Yeah it was this kind feedback that I was looking but as you can imagine one of the troll had this emotional need to turn into an anti-afghan argument 

Anyways hope CPEC will bear fruits and change our region for the better

/Peace

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## KN-1

game changer for what? Pakistan economy..? Then indeed yes.. Under cpec Govt is implementing its plan to end power shortage by the end of 2017... Which alone will add 2% in GDP growth.. Also under cpec we are upgrading road and rail network, fiber optic, etc... For future we are palning economic zones all along cpec route where local manufacturing will take place.. This is all alone from china.. While we will do bussiness with east asia, africa to europe, from central asia to America, sure they will invest as well.. as law and order improving situation is bound to happen well for Pakistan.. 

Thats why milky white shupa powa bharat is so butthurt over it.. Thats why they come here with thier ussual rants of Pakistan sold itslef to china, Pakistan will fall bcoz of this, ( dont worry thier coward kind claiming this for 70 years).. Few days ago they even said Pakistan will fall in 15 days  the worst thier kind do is compare gwadar with chahbahar, while in parallel world Pakistan is building road network to connect chahbahar with gwadar..

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## A-Team

Sky lord said:


> @A-Team
> 
> There is also an 18% interest to be paid back starting next year and remember this corridor connects to Western China not the manufacturing hubs of Eastern China.
> 
> All the terms to China are extra ordinarily lenient, no transit fee on anything, tax free zones, special security etc. which will be paid for by the Pakistani tax payer.
> 
> Having said that there was no other alternative. Pakistani leadership has somehow managed to alienate every other country with interests in the neighborhood including Afghanistan.
> 
> The power, roads, ports will be beneficial so will experience gained by Pakistani talent IF they are employed in Chinese ventures. Hopefully the benefits are greater than the costs incurred in interest payments and support functions like extra security. It is definitely better than doing nothing.
> 
> Benefits to Afghanistan would be possible future export of your minerals to China overland. Connectivity is always good.



That is a pretty high interest but I understand they are still negotiating these terms.

Afghanistan will benefit from it and so is the region, excellent backbone connectivity within the region is a win-win

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## KN-1

A-Team said:


> That is a pretty high interest but I understand they are still negotiating these terms.
> 
> Afghanistan will benefit from it and so is the region, excellent backbone connectivity within the region is a win-win



advice no 1 from my side.. Never believe yindoo when they are talking about Pakistan.. Ask him for source..

all energy projects are on build operate and transfer terms..

www.dawn.com/news/1178896

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

KN-1 said:


> advice no 1 from my side.. Never believe yindoo when they are talking about Pakistan.. Ask him for source..




Never take anything an indian says about Pakistan or anything else for that matter seriously. They are extremely biased and very racist. On top of that they are a very corrupt, dishonest and prone to lying on a massive scale. More so than non-indians. Pre May-1998, leading indians were saying that Pakistan could never ever become a nuclear weapons state with or without Chinese assistance. That it was impossible for us to do so. They went to great lengths to try to prove this and wrote countless articles in leading western and Russian media outlets. We all know what happened to that Indian fantasy and delusion. Just as then, so is now. There is a pertinent reason why Chinese brothers & sisters helped Pakistan becomes a nuclear weapons state. It is the same reason why they are now going to help us become economically, technologically and scientifically very advanced in the coming years/decades. This will happened no matter what our enemies think or say. Our destiny is precious and something no indian or any other enemy can ever understand.

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## Sky lord

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> Never take anything an indian says about Pakistan or anything else for that matter seriously. *They are extremely biased and very racist. On top of that they are a very corrupt, dishonest and prone to lying on a massive scale. More so than non-indians.*



Quoted for posterity as a living example of a Pakistani being non racist and unbiased!

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## The Sandman

@WAJsal kindly take care of some indian trolls here

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## Kompromat

90% of Pakistani population would have access to a motorway within 1-2 hour of drive from their remote place. That is a big game changer, you'd be able to pray Fajir in Peshawar and Maghrib in Karachi.

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## Soulspeek

I remember just a couple of days back, I saw an interview in some Pakistani news channel. One of the guest asked why are we gloating so much about CPEC? Firstly, we would be under so much loan, that whatever little we will gain, will be used up in paying interests.

Secondly, CPEC is essentially a trade route, just like Panama Canal or Suez Canal. Did it make Panama or Egypt an economic giant??

Answer is a big NO...



New Resolve said:


> Sensing a lot of insecurity in the neighborhood wrt CPEC, makes the heart go fond.



A guy just got a bicycle on rent from a shop and thinking that his neighbor (who owns a Ferrari) must be jealous of him!

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Soulspeek said:


> I remember just a couple of days back, I saw an interview in some Pakistani news channel. One of the guest asked why are we gloating so much about CPEC? Firstly, we would be under so much loan, that whatever little we will gain, will be used up in paying interests.
> 
> Secondly, CPEC is essentially a trade route, just like Panama Canal or Suez Canal. Did it make Panama or Egypt an economic giant??
> 
> Answer is a big NO...
> 
> 
> 
> A guy just got a bicycle on rent from a shop and thinking that his neighbor (who owns a Ferrari) must be jealous of him!




Completely false logic. Which is far removed from the ground reality in Pakistan. Which I can confirm from my recent trip to Pakistan. It's not the trade route of CPEC that is causing a stir, it's the MASSIVE infrastructure projects that are going on all over Pakistan ESPECIALLY along the CPEC route. There are massive projects on a scale that has never ever been seen before in Pakistan's history. 2 years ago everyone would have said this was impossible. But now it is a reality. The same was said about our nuclear weapons program. There is a reason WHY our Chinese brothers and sisters helped Pakistan becomes a nuclear weapons state. It is the same reason why they now want Pakistan to become a nation that is economically, scientifically, technologically and militarily powerful. This will be realised and come true no matter what our enemies say or do. It can't be stopped. Just like NO ONE could stop us from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

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## Talwar e Pakistan

RealNapster said:


> sir i need more information on this. please elaborate. also provide sources.


http://dailytimes.com.pk/pakistan/04-May-16/cpec-to-include-26bn-diamer-dasu-dams-ahsan

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## nang2

CPEC can only become a game changer when Pakistani have accomplished the following steps.

1. Fix doors and fences. That means national defense. The fact that US can fly their drone over without telling Pakistan government is a bad sign.
2. Clean the house. That means internal peace. Sweep all domestic terrorists. Maintain peaceful relationship between different groups or ethnics or religious factions, etc.
3. After #1 and #2 are accomplished, open doors. That means to eagerly compete for business with the rest of the world. That is time when CPEC can make a difference. How successful CPEC will be highly depends on how #1 and #2 are done and how earnestly Pakistani engage in world market.

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## Jungibaaz

It's shocking how little people understand what we call 'CPEC'.



A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949



CPEC is not a road, it's a portfolio for a diverse list of investments totalling almost half of one hundred billion dollars. And there's more yet to come. It's a significant opportunity for Pakistan to invest in energy projects, infrastructure, revitalising industry and skills. Gwadar to Kashgar trade links are one small part, you don't spend $46 billion developing a port and a few roads.

Pakistan's media is doing a pathetic job telling us the actual worth and nature of these projects, your post hints at the same understanding based on the oversimplification of what this all actually means.

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## Imad.Khan

Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...
> 
> local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.
> 
> and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.




Any source for your claim of 18% interest rate?

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## Mrc

Cpec can be pakistan's google...

Like google services are free for users... and like google u make money from traffic not services....
Keep in mind google is 2nd largest company in world and does not charge any thing to its customers from day 1 when it was valued at 16000 dollars....

Make money from traffic....

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## Saquibk

One analogy could be the US railway link that connected the east coast to the west coast, which opened up the west coast link with the pacific ocean and made california the richest state in the USA. China only has east coast and no west coast. West coast can be provided by Pakistan. That is the ultimate potential. Base case could be that Pakistan handles Chinese trade of 100 billion dollars which will make gwadar a city like Karachi. That will add 20% to the GDP, 50% to govt taxes and a decent living to 5 million Pakistanis.

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## Abingdonboy

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949


CPEC has the potential to be very benefical to Pakistan as it is clearly a massive amount of investment (pledged) for a infrastructure starved nation.

That said, there is a serious risk that if the returns are not as high as expected or there are serious implementation issues that the next generation of Pakistani taxpayer will be heavily burdened as Pakistan has given China almost unheard of return rates (7-30%) and the Pakistani govt has given sovereign guarentees for all of these loans. China could end up effectively owning the state of Pakistan. Pakistan is already in a circular debt trap and CPEC could make this exponentially worse. 

CPEC won't transform Pakistan, this is something that many here won't accept BUT it will help in improving their economy IF everything works out.

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## salarsikander

Abingdonboy said:


> CPEC has the potential to be very benefical to Pakistan as it is clearly a massive amount of investment (pledged) for a infrastructure starved nation.
> 
> That said, there is a serious risk that if the returns are not as high as expected or there are serious implementation issues that the next generation of Pakistani taxpayer will be heavily burdened as Pakistan has given China almost unheard of return rates (7-30%) and the Pakistani govt has given sovereign guarentees for all of these loans. China could end up effectively owning the state of Pakistan. Pakistan is already in a circular debt trap and CPEC could make this exponentially worse.
> 
> CPEC won't transform Pakistan, this is something that many here won't accept BUT it will help in improving their economy IF everything works out.


Again, how do you source your claims ?


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## Abingdonboy

salarsikander said:


> Again, how do you source your claims ?


Which part do you disagree with?


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## salarsikander

Abingdonboy said:


> Which part do you disagree with?





Abingdonboy said:


> China almost unheard of return rates (7-30%) and the Pakistani govt has given sovereign guarentees for all of these loans


Where have you sourced such nonsense from ?



Soulspeek said:


> Secondly, CPEC is essentially a trade route, just like Panama Canal or Suez Canal. Did it make Panama or Egypt an economic giant??


LOl at your comprehension skills. The fact that you are comparing it with Suez and Panama leak canals shows that you dont even have slightest Idea of what is going around and that you have already started to leak.

Did you even bother to read what CPEC is all about ? Do you even know what is Economic corridor and what projects are included in it, apart from ONLY road ?


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## airmarshal

Pakistan has a great military, the only Muslim nuclear power but without economy to back it, it has scant credibility and whatever say it had in Middle East in 70s and 80s or in world affairs is also diminished. 

Again if Pakistan has this type of economy thats on crutches of foreign loans, Pakistan still will not be able to utilize CPEC to its advantage.

Actually, Pakistan has a strategic location which has benefited powers before and will continue to benefit future powers if we dont have the strong economy. Every time there is war in Afghanistan, we are the natural passage and our strategic location has been used so far by US and now China will use it for CPEC. Pakistani nation will just be a bystander.

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## Indus Pakistan

@A-Team First I need to compliment you for opening this thread. One look at the map and it is very obvious that Afghanistan is as tied into the fate of the CPEC as Pakistan for the simple fact (Indian's need to note this) that major portion of Afghan population live adjacent to Peshwar. In fact Kunduz - Kabul - Peshawar - Islamabad - Lahore lie on the same transport axis. Indeed Kabul and the region around it with very high population falls within the Indus Basin catchment area via the Kabul River. Below. Population density map.












The above map shows the transport corridor that connects the high density areas of Afghanistan (including Kabul) to high density areas of Pakistan (including Islamabad). Of course the eastern point on this terminus is Lahore which is adjacent to Amritsar in Indian Punjab and I don't think that border is going to open anytime soon.

The Af-Pak corridor is marked red. However what is interesting is that one of the alignments of the CPEC (marked green) running from China to Islamabad (where it meets the Af-Pak corridor) on south to Gwadar and Karachi. This means that potentially CPEC could impact Afghanistan as much as Pakistan. This is plainly obvious by looking at the maps. That this potential will actualized very much depends on regional politics which is something that hot heads on both sides need to bear in mind. Over the long term those Afghan refugees everybody complains so much about might turn out to be asset for Pakistan as their presence will reinforce the Af-Pak corridor which links into the CPEC near Islamabad/Taxila. 

The real question that needs answering and OP brought that up was "what is CPEC all about". I can't believe that after so much song and dance about this CPEC the real question as to what it is all about has not been resolved. So here is my take on it. Imagine this desert below.






There is almost no economic activity. It is almost disconnected from the vibrant pulsating centres of world economic powerhouses. Now imagine your going to build a canal through it. What would you look forward to? Charging *transit fee* for the water *discharge* along the canal? Or* emergency* supply of drinking water to some town downstream?

Well you could just dream of those two benefits that the canal would bless the desert inhabitants. Or you could think* big*. You could think of the canal as offering huge potential to bring about revolution to the backward desert.

(i) The desert could be irrigated to become huge farming country.
(ii) massive agriculture exports
(iii) towns develop to service the farms
(iv) industries develop to service agriculture
(v) exports connect you to markets far way. Imports come from far away.
(vi) You are now connected to the world which brings new ideas and ways of doing things.

In the same way do not regard the CPEC as strip of tarmac. Regard it as corridor to China which is pulsating economic powerhouse. Down that corridor will come cascading Chinese goods, ideas, industrial investment. Yes of course the Chinese economic wind will kill many industries in Pakistan. But why should anybody care? Do you guy's want rackets run by corrupt rentier class to continue milching the Pakistani customer? 

As much as Chinese influence will kill many decrepit industries inside Pakistan it will also hasten new investment by Chinese companies which will bring their way of doing business to Pakistan. This is comparable (to a degree) how new entrants to European Union go through after joining. As they join the old inefficient industries are wiped out as western products flood the market. However soon enough those western companies start moving some of thier operation over to those countries because of cheap labour. 

So it all depends on Pakistan. If it does this properly Pakistan will get flooded by Chinese products followed by Chinese companies moving in. A common market could come about out of CPEC. Will CPEC potential be exploited by Pakistan. My concern is that Pakistan's fascination with run awy religion might trip CPEC. If Pak can muzzle the mullahs and instead create pragmatic business climate than this could be game changer and Afghanistan being next door could also be sucked into this.

@nang2 Excellant points you make. If Pakistan can follow China in letter and spirit then CPEC would turn into 21st century success story. In thirty years time if Islamabad Airport is recieving 10 million visitors from China and the airport is linked daily to every major Chinese city than CPEC will have been a "game changer".

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## illusion8

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949



I don't quite understand transit economy..
Pakistan was major transit hub for NATO containers heading to Afghanistan for 10-12 years? Earned billions in both transit fees and other aid support, which would have financed energy plants and other industries...advanced NATO countries were moving their cargo through Pakistan for over a decade, how did it really change anything for Pakistan?.

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## salarsikander

@Oscar Could please be kind enough to supervise this thread and have a look at deliberate trolling by Indian losers, I mean members

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## Ryuzaki

Japanese are providing huge loans at negligible interest rates.For instance,for Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train,they are providing loan of 79,000 crore rupees @0.1% interest rate to be paid over 50 years starting from 2033.Also they will make 85% of the components of the project in India. Compare these terms to what China is providing(double digit interest rates,work done by Chinese firms)

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## The Sandman

@That Guy i think this thread needs you  btw is it really true that we've to payback to china at 18% interest rate?


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## Zibago

Mega dams and nuclear plants are part of CPEC if you dont think they can change Pakistan than you are just a troll

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## New Resolve

neighbour with a ferrari has 300 million children who dont even get a square meal a day, but he has money for a ferrari. jealousy indeed.

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## Akhill

Imad.Khan said:


> Any source for your claim of 18% interest rate?



I am not able to post links.. but it is dawn newspaper on multiple articles relating to CPEC.


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## Imad.Khan

Akhill said:


> I am not able to post links.. but it is dawn newspaper on multiple articles relating to CPEC.



I can't find any article that mentions the interest rates. 

Can anyone else confirm what interest rates are attached with CPEC with source.


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## Akhill

Imad.Khan said:


> I can't find any article that mentions the interest rates.
> 
> Can anyone else confirm what interest rates are attached with CPEC with source.



sorry it is n't interest.. it is the sovereign guarantee of 18% return on investment for 45 years given by Pakistan to china.


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## A-Team

Kaptaan said:


> @A-Team First I need to compliment you for opening this thread. One look at the map and it is very obvious that Afghanistan is as tied into the fate of the CPEC as Pakistan for the simple fact (Indian's need to note this) that major portion of Afghan population live adjacent to Peshwar. In fact Kunduz - Kabul - Peshawar - Islamabad - Lahore lie on the same transport axis. Indeed Kabul and the region around it with very high population falls within the Indus Basin catchment area via the Kabul River. Below. Population density map.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The above map shows the transport corridor that connects the high density areas of Afghanistan (including Kabul) to high density areas of Pakistan (including Islamabad). Of course the eastern point on this terminus is Lahore which is adjacent to Amritsar in Indian Punjab and I don't think that border is going to open anytime soon.
> 
> The Af-Pak corridor is marked red. However what is interesting is that one of the alignments of the CPEC (marked green) running from China to Islamabad (where it meets the Af-Pak corridor) on south to Gwadar and Karachi. This means that potentially CPEC could impact Afghanistan as much as Pakistan. This is plainly obvious by looking at the maps. That this potential will actualized very much depends on regional politics which is something that hot heads on both sides need to bear in mind. Over the long term those Afghan refugees everybody complains so much about might turn out to be asset for Pakistan as their presence will reinforce the Af-Pak corridor which links into the CPEC near Islamabad/Taxila.
> 
> The real question that needs answering and OP brought that up was "what is CPEC all about". I can't believe that after so much song and dance about this CPEC the real question as to what it is all about has not been resolved. So here is my take on it. Imagine this desert below.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There is almost no economic activity. It is almost disconnected from the vibrant pulsating centres of world economic powerhouses. Now imagine your going to build a canal through it. What would you look forward to? Charging *transit fee* for the water *discharge* along the canal? Or* emergency* supply of drinking water to some town downstream?
> 
> Well you could just dream of those two benefits that the canal would bless the desert inhabitants. Or you could think* big*. You could think of the canal as offering huge potential to bring about revolution to the backward desert.
> 
> (i) The desert could be irrigated to become huge farming country.
> (ii) massive agriculture exports
> (iii) towns develop to service the farms
> (iv) industries develop to service agriculture
> (v) exports connect you to markets far way. Imports come from far away.
> (vi) You are now connected to the world which brings new ideas and ways of doing things.
> 
> In the same way do not regard the CPEC as strip of tarmac. Regard it as corridor to China which is pulsating economic powerhouse. Down that corridor will come cascading Chinese goods, ideas, industrial investment. Yes of course the Chinese economic wind will kill many industries in Pakistan. But why should anybody care? Do you guy's want rackets run by corrupt rentier class to continue milching the Pakistani customer?
> 
> As much as Chinese influence will kill many decrepit industries inside Pakistan it will also hasten new investment by Chinese companies which will bring their way of doing business to Pakistan. This is comparable (to a degree) how new entrants to European Union go through after joining. As they join the old inefficient industries are wiped out as western products flood the market. However soon enough those western companies start moving some of thier operation over to those countries because of cheap labour.
> 
> So it all depends on Pakistan. If it does this properly Pakistan will get flooded by Chinese products followed by Chinese companies moving in. A common market could come about out of CPEC. Will CPEC potential be exploited by Pakistan. My concern is that Pakistan's fascination with run awy religion might trip CPEC. If Pak can muzzle the mullahs and instead create pragmatic business climate than this could be game changer and Afghanistan being next door could also be sucked into this.
> 
> @nang2 Excellant points you make. If Pakistan can follow China in letter and spirit then CPEC would turn into 21st century success story. In thirty years time if Islamabad Airport is recieving 10 million visitors from China and the airport is linked daily to every major Chinese city than CPEC will have been a "game changer".



Excellent commentary on the subject, provided a better understanding on the subject.

Thank you!

PS : Hope this project will turn Pakistan into a giant of an economy which of course will have positive implications on Afghanistan.

/Peace

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## KN-1

Ryuzaki said:


> Japanese are providing huge loans at negligible interest rates.For instance,for Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train,they are providing loan of 79,000 crore rupees @0.1% interest rate to be paid over 50 years starting from 2033.Also they will make 85% of the components of the project in India. Compare these terms to what China is providing(double digit interest rates,work done by Chinese firms)



again where is the source for double digit interest rate or 18% ?? Or it coming out of ur asre bcoz of butthurt...

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## BetterPakistan

A-Team said:


> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks



Answer 1:- China committed a $46 billion investment which has increased by billions of dollars and will keep on increasing till China uses CPEC. The transit fees which Pak will earn will be more than your country's GDP, which means that transit fees will be more than that of many small countries GDP. After 2018 Pakistan is gonna see a boom when Gwadar Port will be operational. China has came closer to Pak becauase of CPEC. China the next superpower considers Pakistan its best friend and is offering Pakistan its best. China committed to invest $30 billion for energy generation in Pakistan due to which Pak will overcome its energy crisis till 2018. China will assist Pak to manufacture 8 submarines from which four will be constructed in Pakistan and four in China.
This question answer requires time so i just mentioned a few things which can assist you in understanding what CPEC is.

Answer 2:- "Game changer" is definitely backed by concrete facts because not only China but many countries will use gwadar port and will rely on Pakistan strategically.

Answer 3:- I don't have information about it so m not gonna reply it.

Peace

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## khanmubashir

Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...
> 
> local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.
> 
> and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.


for yr info most loans are at 1.6% maybe 1 or 2 loans are at higher rate 
china has indicated that it will charge 1.6 percent interest on loans for establishing infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, Pakistan would like the interest rate to be lowered to one percent, says a news item published in this newspaper. Pakistan, it appears, is basing its view on interest rate it particularly pays to a Bretton Woods institution, the World Bank, for similar project financing.
Under CPEC, China has pledged $11.8 billion in infrastructure projects and $33.8 billion in various energy projects to be completed by 2017. The World Bank charges half-a-percent on a 30-year tenor under IDA loan and a higher rate for middle income countries such as Pakistan. The average of two kinds of loans works out to be one percent. However, when Pakistan goes to International Finance Corporation (IFC) - a World Bank affiliate that lends to the private sector - a higher rate of interest is charged. Similarly, when cash funds are obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as money raised through bonds issued in the international capital market. Thus, private sector money comes at a higher rate of interest than multilateral loans. However, loans provided under the CPEC will go exclusively to the Chinese government-owned entities

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## ghauri05

Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...
> 
> local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.
> 
> and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.


The engineers are not all chinese...Pakistani engineers will run these projects...My friends have been selected for the Sahiwal project of 1320 MW....they will get one year training in China and then will run the project on their own or with collaboration of chinese engr.

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## Major Sam

ghauri05 said:


> The engineers are not all chinese...Pakistani engineers will run these projects...My friends have been selected for the Sahiwal project of 1320 MW....they will get one year training in China and then will run the project on their own or with collaboration of chinese engr.



Btw do u know the selection process ?


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## lafete

The total installed capacity of pakistani ports is 6 million teu. The volume of Chinese trade that sails in front of Pakistani shore is > 200 million teu. Even if Jiwani, ormara (doubt that army will give it up), pasni become full scale ports, pakistani infra-structure cannot handle so much volume. Iran sees all this and wants in on the action. This is why they requested that their port be linked to gwadar and are working towards it.

To handle so much cargo, the main thing is man-power and this is where karachi comes in. For China, karachi is the key. The amount of money China has spent in Karachi is far greater than the money spent in Gwadar. The new terminal China is building in Karachi, will increase the pakistani capacity by 2 million teu (Gwadar is just 0.5 million). This is also the reason why the army is cleaning up Karachi (upon chinese request). Gwadar will have a role, but in future. For now it is just there to distract attention. The chinese are also dredging the existing Karachi port channel and are building a U-Turn facility for ships to speed up cargo unloading.

Iranian's supplied fresh water and Fuel to the chinese working on Gwadar port (just google it). They offered pak-china role in their port. That road india is building goes directly into the heartland of the Taliban, their base of power. 

Finally, when the tunnel underneath the strait of hormuz is built (by germany, google it), then this whole network will really come to life. A freight train carrying agriculture products from Karachi/Mumbai can reach Duabi within 18 hours. 

There is huge opportunity for all! 

Pakistan needs to urgently build a rail track along the mekran coastal highway and connect the ports. The real trade is done on rail.

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## That Guy

The Sandman said:


> @That Guy i think this thread needs you  btw is it really true that we've to payback to china at 18% interest rate?


Most of the loans have low interest rate, due to sovereign guarantees. I don't know where that 18% came from, but it's either cherry picked, or is completely wrong.


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## The Sandman

That Guy said:


> Most of the loans have low interest rate, due to sovereign guarantees. I don't know where that 18% came from, but it's either cherry picked, or is completely wrong.


Well our neighbors are even claiming that Chinese are gonna hire Private army to protect Gawadar and other places after completion of CPEC i have asked for a source but got no reply from them.

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## That Guy

The Sandman said:


> Well our neighbors are even claiming that Chinese are gonna hire Private army to protect Gawadar and other places after completion of CPEC i have asked for a source but got no reply from them.


Private army?

If they mean security firms, that's standard practice by most corporations. A thing to keep in mind is that it is not just China itself that is investing time and money, it is private and government owned corporations that are mainly involved. In this case, hiring security firms for guards isn't out of the question. After all, the police and military can only do so much to protect them, for basic security, they need their own personally employed guards.

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## ghauri05

Major Sam said:


> Btw do u know the selection process ?


i am not sure about that..but i think they applied after seeing the ad in some news paper.

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## Nilgiri

A few flies in the ointment:

a) Mainly Loan route instead of FDI route (already proven seeing Pakistan FDI figures are still terribly low).

b) The servicing rate of these loans + long term liability payments

c) Pakistan poor education/training sectors (look up UNESCO database)...potentially declining literacy rate (from Pakistan own bureau of statistics)

d) Pakistan abysmally low gross capital formation (and specifically the existing inertia from this, CPEC cannot address it fully even if everything goes perfectly to theory).

e) Pakistan govt development policies + further implementation (at some point the buck starts with Pakistan to harness and transfer infra capacity to long term jobs by fixing point c to create sustainable long term production, jobs and wealth.

If Pakistan has a solidly dedicated core of bureaucrats, there will probably be a good chance CPEC will succeed and "ignite" the real development. Otherwise its a recipe for long term fiscal nightmare and immense opportunity cost for Pakistan.

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## Viper0011.

Nilgiri said:


> A few flies in the ointment:
> 
> a) Mainly Loan route instead of FDI route (already proven seeing Pakistan FDI figures are still terribly low).
> 
> b) The servicing rate of these loans + long term liability payments
> 
> c) Pakistan poor education/training sectors (look up UNESCO database)...potentially declining literacy rate (from Pakistan own bureau of statistics)
> 
> d) Pakistan abysmally low gross capital formation (and specifically the existing inertia from this, CPEC cannot address it fully even if everything goes perfectly to theory).
> 
> e) Pakistan govt development policies + further implementation (at some point the buck starts with Pakistan to harness and transfer infra capacity to long term jobs by fixing point c to create sustainable long term production, jobs and wealth.
> 
> If Pakistan has a solidly dedicated core of bureaucrats, there will probably be a good chance CPEC will succeed and "ignite" the real development. Otherwise its a recipe for long term fiscal nightmare and immense opportunity cost for Pakistan.



Why is it that you guys from India ONLY write hate speech / wrong version of the truth on here? A stable and economically powerful Pakistan is in India's best interests (more than the rest of the world). 

1) Check India's debt before you complain about Pakisan's. Check India's history in the 90's (before the economic boom) before complaining about Pakistan. India got a LOT of US investment. Pakistan got Chinese investment. The term loan isn't applicable here. 

2) Majority of the projects are BOT projects (Build, Operate and Transfer), meaning, the Chinese will build them (using a huge % of Pakistani labor and contracting companies), they will Operate these projects for a specific amount of time and will Transfer these to Pakistan after investment returns have been achieved. Meaning they have returned their own loans along with the expected ROI. After FDI, this is one of the best options to grow a country's economy as Pakistan has much less risk than China does and has a huge labor and industry potential to grow due to this massive initiative.

3) CPEC will re-create a similar (yet lower dollar value due to the smaller size ) economic activity that back in 1960-1980 the US experienced when the Road network was built by Mr. Al Gore's father. Same thing happened in China during the 90's till date.

Just like that, dozens of new cities will be born around the route, dozens of new power plants, hundreds of new hotels (large and small), malls, shopping centers, thousands of gas stations and grocery stores, hospitals, health clinics, engineering companies, construction companies, real estate housing communities, new airports to sustain travel from new cities, industry in these areas, goods and services for consumer consumption will be needed. All this would overtime result in trillions of rupees worth of more tax as unlike the rest half of Pakistan, this half is being born in the computer age, so tax evasion would be close to impossible as everything will be recorded and systematic for businesses. 

So as you can see, an individual working at a low pay packaging job to production of thousands of engineers, doctors, nurses, businessmen, etc, etc will take place. Meaning, from a layman with a daily job to highest earners will benefit from it and the entire country will feel the growth as all business will expand out to this entire area of hundreds of miles (just within Pakistan). Then there is external countries that can serve as markets and route for trade too. 

Do you understand the magnitude of what I just wrote above? The entire country will transform as a result of this initiative. And this is outside of the trade that will take place with shipping goods and transportation.

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## Nilgiri

Viper0011. said:


> 1) Check India's debt before you complain about Pakisan's. Check India's history in the 90's (before the economic boom) before complaining about Pakistan. India got a LOT of US investment. Pakistan got Chinese investment. The term loan isn't applicable here.



Loan is totally applicable since the Chinese are not pouring in FDI. You have to pay back the large majority of the CPEC money with interest...hoping it will be a net gain fiscally in the long term. If you have FDI figures for Pakistan that show anything drastically more than the 1 billion or so it gets per year, please post it.



Viper0011. said:


> 2) Majority of the projects are BOT projects (Build, Operate and Transfer), meaning, the Chinese will build them (using a huge % of Pakistani labor and contracting companies), they will Operate these projects for a specific amount of time and will Transfer these to Pakistan after investment returns have been achieved. Meaning they have returned their own loans along with the expected ROI. After FDI, this is one of the best options to grow a country's economy as Pakistan has much less risk than China does and has a huge labor and industry potential to grow due to this massive initiative.



All sounds good on paper. Problem is capacity addition (which is the easy part) needs human capital improvement (the hard part) for it to be sustainable. Pakistan human capital indicators (education) are quite shocking, a lot worse than Bangladesh even.

The most basic metric is not even improving slowly, but declining: 

http://tribune.com.pk/story/886027/2013-14-report-literacy-rate-slips-nationwide-by-2/



Viper0011. said:


> CPEC will re-create a similar (yet lower dollar value due to the smaller size ) economic activity that back in 1960-1980 the US experienced when the Road network was built by Mr. Al Gore's father. Same thing happened in China during the 90's till date.



Not without basic human capital to create and operate the industry (Esp manufacturing). Want me to post just how many Pakistani students make it all the way through high school (which is the global pre-requisite for having a base level of middle class employable skill)? It will make for really sobering reading....especially when I post it alongside what the figures were for the US and China in the time periods you talk of.



Viper0011. said:


> Just like that, dozens of new cities will be born around the route, dozens of new power plants, hundreds of new hotels (large and small), malls, shopping centers, thousands of gas stations and grocery stores, hospitals, health clinics, engineering companies, construction companies, real estate housing communities, new airports to sustain travel from new cities, industry in these areas, goods and services for consumer consumption will be needed. All this would overtime result in trillions of rupees worth of more tax as unlike the rest half of Pakistan, this half is being born in the computer age, so tax evasion would be close to impossible as everything will be recorded and systematic for businesses.
> 
> So as you can see, an individual working at a low pay packaging job to production of thousands of engineers, doctors, nurses, businessmen, etc, etc will take place. Meaning, from a layman with a daily job to highest earners will benefit from it and the entire country will feel the growth as all business will expand out to this entire area of hundreds of miles (just within Pakistan). Then there is external countries that can serve as markets and route for trade too.
> 
> Do you understand the magnitude of what I just wrote above? The entire country will transform as a result of this initiative. And this is outside of the trade that will take place with shipping goods and transportation.



Sorry I don't buy it. Pakistan's bureaucracy is too corrupt, self serving....and its human capital is just too weak, stagnant and even declining.

It is more likely that CPEC will be a grandiose fiscal failure....but I am willing to wait and see and be proven wrong.

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## Maira La

Viper0011. said:


> Why is it that you guys from India ONLY write hate speech / wrong version of the truth on here?



It's futile spending so much time responding to these tamil idiots. Try dispensing a few of these:

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## Viper0011.

Nilgiri said:


> Loan is totally applicable since the Chinese are not pouring in FDI. You have to pay back the large majority of the CPEC money with interest...hoping it will be a net gain fiscally in the long term. If you have FDI figures for Pakistan that show anything drastically more than the 1 billion or so it gets per year, please post it.



You clearly don't read anything do you? China is building this entire national infrastructure on BOT basis. Ever worked on a BOT engagement? Well, India didn't get that from anyone, till Uncle (and real loving Uncle Sam) decided to pour our economy inside India. Go back to 90's and remmeber the dark days before an Angel from heavens (called the USA, aka, Uncle Sam) showed up and turned India's life forever as we know it today!!!! Remember your own past before you stupid criticize others. Just a word of advise.

Now, if the US had decided to not treat India special by giving her a pie of the US economy, but the US still wanted to help India, it would've been either low interest rate loans or BOT based projects. China is doing both. Many power plants are being built on 2% loan. I went to a large investment bank today to discuss some financing for a $ 31 million loan and we have decades of large project experience and excellent loan returning history. With the super low rates in the US and out dealings with this bank, guess what did the contract say? We get a very special 7% APY!!!! And here, China is giving billions on 2%. Tell me what would a bank charge you for a personal loan in India !!! Yup, a whopping 8-13%!!!! Next, the 2% is ALSO BOT based, meaning the Chinese are responsible for getting that 2% and their perceived profit back. WHILE, they pay to Pakistani labor and contractors and teach them the work. Once the profit is realized in a set amount of time, they'll transfer the infrastructure to Pakistan and will leave.

This has nothing to do with the FDI's. FDI isn't the ONLY way to grow an economy. The Chinese did it without FDI's. Many other nations did it too. The US initially did it before the Oil boom in the 70's. If you can create internal demand enough to provide millions of jobs for everyone, grow infrastructure and start to bring other investors with incentives, until you start to receive FDI, there is enough work inside the country to continue to run the economy. Not sure which school of business did you go to, but its pretty cleat they didn't teach you everything there. [/QUOTE]




> All sounds good on paper. Problem is capacity addition (which is the easy part) needs human capital improvement (the hard part) for it to be sustainable. Pakistan human capital indicators (education) are quite shocking, a lot worse than Bangladesh even.



Ok......what "capacity" addition? Pakistan has 50% of her population as male and ages between 15-23. Meaning 50% of the Pakistani population has standard 30 years or more working life left. That's one of the largest male working population in the world!!!! There are plenty of analysis about it, you should do some research.

Pakistan will be competing with India in IT, Medical and in Engineering in the next three years (per her population's smaller size vs. India's much larger population). Obviously they can't go one to one with you because of your size and population, but the pain of losing some business will be felt (specially both of you being the arch rival). I know many Indian CEO's (Desoza, Desai, etc, etc), they are now openly stating that if things are favorable, they'd like to invest into expanding IT stuff in Pakistan to kill off competition. Pakistani labor speaks English and is just as "genetically" skilled as the Indian smart guys.But it would be half the cost of India as Pakistan is starting out and India's grown into these offshore roles. This is JUST one example.



> It is more likely that CPEC will be a grandiose fiscal failure....but I am willing to wait and see and be proven wrong.



If you want to feel like a total fool, check back with my post by the end of 2018. I'll be the guy doing   .....because I told you so. You are just biased because of your origin and truth is hard to fathom. But trust me, change force you to adapt to it. Which is why, you should adapt to it when it starts to happen. That way, its less pain and mental f**k if you know what I mean

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## fjavaid

Horus said:


> 90% of Pakistani population would have access to a motorway within 1-2 hour of drive from their remote place. That is a big game changer, you'd be able to pray Fajir in Peshawar and Maghrib in Karachi.


n on top of that , fast connectivity via fiber optic link n power generation increasing ( if our govt fixes our transmission system) shd be able to jump start modern industrial era across Pakistan, tht is not limited to Major cities

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## Nilgiri

Viper0011. said:


> Now, if the US had decided to not treat India special by giving her a pie of the US economy, but the US still wanted to help India, it would've been either low interest rate loans or BOT based projects. China is doing both. Many power plants are being built on 2% loan. I went to a large investment bank today to discuss some financing for a $ 31 million loan and we have decades of large project experience and excellent loan returning history. With the super low rates in the US and out dealings with this bank, guess what did the contract say? We get a very special 7% APY!!!! And here, China is giving billions on 2%. Tell me what would a bank charge you for a personal loan in India !!! Yup, a whopping 8-13%!!!! Next, the 2% is ALSO BOT based, meaning the Chinese are responsible for getting that 2% and their perceived profit back. WHILE, they pay to Pakistani labor and contractors and teach them the work. Once the profit is realized in a set amount of time, they'll transfer the infrastructure to Pakistan and will leave.



I'm not talking about just the loan repayment rates but all the other liabilities in the fine print such as in one such project:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1194014




> Sinosure is charging a fee of 7pc for debt servicing, which will be added to the capital cost of a project. For instance, the capital cost of a 660MW project at Port Qasim is $767.9m. But it goes up to $956.1m by adding Sinosure’s fee of $63.9m, its financing fee and charges of $21m, and interest during construction of $72.8m; a 27.2pc return on equity is guaranteed.
> 
> Ironically, interest during construction is allowed at the rate of 33.33pc for the first year; 33.33pc for the second; 13.33pc for the third; and 20pc for the fourth year. The scenario presents a bleak picture, as the availability of affordable energy will likely remain a pipedream.



Not to mention that the 1.6% overall service rate for the early projects is something Pakistan admits it wants to be lowered as well:

http://www.brecorder.com/editorials/0:/1225344:cpec-china-must-reduce-interest-rate/



Viper0011. said:


> Ok......what "capacity" addition? Pakistan has 50% of her population as male and ages between 15-23. Meaning 50% of the Pakistani population has standard 30 years or more working life left. That's one of the largest male working population in the world!!!! There are plenty of analysis about it, you should do some research.



I've done my research plenty of times. Its all well and good if you have access to a large youth....but whether that becomes a benefit or curse depends on their level of education and training.

Only 46% of Pakistani kids finish high school....compared to 79% in India among other measures of education:

https://defence.pk/threads/pakistan...angladesh-diplomat.410043/page-6#post-7921579

https://defence.pk/threads/little-to-cheer-for-in-pakistan.414089/page-2#post-8007271



Viper0011. said:


> Pakistan will be competing with India in IT, Medical and in Engineering in the next three years (per her population's smaller size vs. India's much larger population). Obviously they can't go one to one with you because of your size and population, but the pain of losing some business will be felt (specially both of you being the arch rival). I know many Indian CEO's (Desoza, Desai, etc, etc), they are now openly stating that if things are favorable, they'd like to invest into expanding IT stuff in Pakistan to kill off competition. Pakistani labor speaks English and is just as "genetically" skilled as the Indian smart guys.But it would be half the cost of India as Pakistan is starting out and India's grown into these offshore roles. This is JUST one example.



Read about the education difference between India and Pakistan....Pakistan has to address that before dreaming of trying to compete with India. It reminds me of a 10 page article Pakistan govt did in a Singapore newspaper in the early 2000s (when I was living in Singapore)....that they were going to match and surpass India in IT in just a few years time blah blah blah.

All dreaming, no concrete ground results....thats the story of Pakistan. If CPEC bucks the trend, it will be a first....and it in itself will still not be sufficient for Pakistan. Thats why every major international financial organisation is predicting like 5% max real growth for Pakistan over the next decade, factoring in CPEC.


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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Loan is totally applicable since the Chinese are not pouring in FDI. You have to pay back the large majority of the CPEC money with interest...hoping it will be a net gain fiscally in the long term. If you have FDI figures for Pakistan that show anything drastically more than the 1 billion or so it gets per year, please post it.
> 
> 
> 
> All sounds good on paper. Problem is capacity addition (which is the easy part) needs human capital improvement (the hard part) for it to be sustainable. Pakistan human capital indicators (education) are quite shocking, a lot worse than Bangladesh even.
> 
> The most basic metric is not even improving slowly, but declining:
> 
> http://tribune.com.pk/story/886027/2013-14-report-literacy-rate-slips-nationwide-by-2/
> 
> 
> 
> Not without basic human capital to create and operate the industry (Esp manufacturing). Want me to post just how many Pakistani students make it all the way through high school (which is the global pre-requisite for having a base level of middle class employable skill)? It will make for really sobering reading....especially when I post it alongside what the figures were for the US and China in the time periods you talk of.
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry I don't buy it. Pakistan's bureaucracy is too corrupt, self serving....and its human capital is just too weak, stagnant and even declining.
> 
> It is more likely that CPEC will be a grandiose fiscal failure....but I am willing to wait and see and be proven wrong.




Doesn't matter what indians think or say. Your opinions are worthless and meaningless to us. indian experts also said that pre-May 1998 that it was impossible for Pakistan to ever have nuclear weapons with or without Chinese help. They used all the facts & figures under the sun to prove this. We all know what happened to that indian fantasy and delusion. Just as then so is now. When CPEC IS successful, indians will be saying that it is a bubble that will burst and then Pakistan will disintegrate.....lol. Just as they have been saying since 14th of August 1947. It is genetic for indians to be overly critical and heavily biased against Pakistan so anything they say should be taken with a pinch of salt. 

As long as Pakistanis remain one of the most beautiful races of the world and not one of the super ugliest, then we'll always be successful and winners.


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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> Doesn't matter what indians think or say. Your opinions are worthless and meaningless to us. indian experts also said that pre-May 1998 that it was impossible for Pakistan to ever have nuclear weapons with or without Chinese help. They used all the facts & figures under the sun to prove this. We all know what happened to that indian fantasy and delusion. Just as then so is now. When CPEC IS successful, indians will be saying that it is a bubble that will burst and then Pakistan will disintegrate.....lol. Just as they have been saying since 14th of August 1947. It is genetic for indians to be overly critical and heavily biased against Pakistan so anything they say should be taken with a pinch of salt.
> 
> As long as Pakistanis remain one of the most beautiful races of the world and not one of the super ugliest, then we'll always be successful and winners.



Yes this is the umpteenth time you have asserted this. Maybe add a little variety. You are that half-brazilian guy from that previous forum right? Things barely change with you I see, though I notice you are more cautious here since you will get banned here for the stuff you used to spout in the other place.


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## Viper0011.

Nilgiri said:


> I'm not talking about just the loan repayment rates but all the other liabilities in the fine print such as in one such project:
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1194014


http://www.dawn.com/news/1194014

Have you seen estimates in 90's from India on repayments of her debt? You'd be SHOCKED to see what Mr. Singh and Mr. Rao were dealing with.....a billion population with 850 MILLION people without homes, proper sanitary (bathrooms and food to eat). Today, even with all that growth in India, this number stands at 600 MILLION people. Pakistan is in a MUCH better condition. The poverty level is much below compared to what India saw before the boom. If you don't understand an "Emerging Market", then try to not write silly statements and go learn a few things about economic growth. 




> Not to mention that the 1.6% overall service rate for the early projects is something Pakistan admits it wants to be lowered as well:
> 
> http://www.brecorder.com/editorials/0:/1225344:cpec-china-must-reduce-interest-rate/


http://www.brecorder.com/editorials/0:/1225344:cpec-china-must-reduce-interest-rate/

Again, you don't understand and some stupid journalists don't understand either. Chinese loans are not to Pakistan. Pakistan is the beneficiary. They are given to Chinese private companies to complete the CPEC in Pakistan. Those companies are running BOT projects. They are responsible for paying the loan's back and make profit. When they make their profits, they then transfer these projects to Pakistani companies. You continue to write statements without understanding the real picture!!!




> I've done my research plenty of times. Its all well and good if you have access to a large youth....but whether that becomes a benefit or curse depends on their level of education and training.
> 
> *Only 46% of Pakistani kids finish high school....compared to 79% in India among other measures of education:*



79% of Indian kids graduate but 600 million families still don't have access to proper bathrooms in India???? Give me something I can accept. Your image of India that you are showing us is like the US. When its a lie. Its good that Indian kids are graduating more than Pakistani kids, but Pakistan with a growing economy and less population, can provide a much better lifestyle to its people with much less sized growth than India will need, as Pakistan is 5th the size of India both area and population wise. 

46% of Pakistani kids graduated as of 2014 or may be last year. Punjab state has a 100% focus on education and they've taken measures to support it. Like I said, you think Pakistan is Europe and India is the US 
. And due to your childish misconception, this silly argument is going on. Pakistan is an emerging market and unlike India, there is no uncle Sam to invest billions into her. But that has changed so watch the education, jobs and the entire economy sky rocket starting 2018. Till then, writing these silly posts makes no sense. Its like a Police officer without investigating calling someone a Criminal. The CPEC needs time to finish. They will start to show results by the end of next year. In 2018, you'll start to realize real benefits of the Phase I. Then the Phase II will start and by the end of 2022, you'll see Pakistan's GDP around 6-7% annual growth with a 3X tax collection base that didn't exist in the entire history of Pakistan. Which means, the government then, would have Trillions of Rupees coming in Taxes to spread education and other projects from their own funds!!!! What would this do? Grow Pakistan more and on its own. 

Let's stop the false propaganda please.

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## Nilgiri

Viper0011. said:


> Have you seen estimates in 90's from India on repayments of her debt? You'd be SHOCKED to see what Mr. Singh and Mr. Rao were dealing with.....a billion population with 850 MILLION people without homes, proper sanitary (bathrooms and food to eat). Today, even with all that growth in India, this number stands at 600 MILLION people. Pakistan is in a MUCH better condition. The poverty level is much below compared to what India saw before the boom. If you don't understand an "Emerging Market", then try to not write silly statements and go learn a few things about economic growth.
> 
> 
> 
> Again, you don't understand and some stupid journalists don't understand either. Chinese loans are not to Pakistan. Pakistan is the beneficiary. They are given to Chinese private companies to complete the CPEC in Pakistan. Those companies are running BOT projects. They are responsible for paying the loan's back and make profit. When they make their profits, they then transfer these projects to Pakistani companies. You continue to write statements without understanding the real picture!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 79% of Indian kids graduate but 600 million families still don't have access to proper bathrooms in India???? Give me something I can accept. Your image of India that you are showing us is like the US. When its a lie. Its good that Indian kids are graduating more than Pakistani kids, but Pakistan with a growing economy and less population, can provide a much better lifestyle to its people with much less sized growth than India will need, as Pakistan is 5th the size of India both area and population wise.
> 
> 46% of Pakistani kids graduated as of 2014 or may be last year. Punjab state has a 100% focus on education and they've taken measures to support it. Like I said, you think Pakistan is Europe and India is the US
> . And due to your childish misconception, this silly argument is going on. Pakistan is an emerging market and unlike India, there is no uncle Sam to invest billions into her. But that has changed so watch the education, jobs and the entire economy sky rocket starting 2018. Till then, writing these silly posts makes no sense. Its like a Police officer without investigating calling someone a Criminal. The CPEC needs time to finish. They will start to show results by the end of next year. In 2018, you'll start to realize real benefits of the Phase I. Then the Phase II will start and by the end of 2022, you'll see Pakistan's GDP around 6-7% annual growth with a 3X tax collection base that didn't exist in the entire history of Pakistan. Which means, the government then, would have Trillions of Rupees coming in Taxes to spread education and other projects from their own funds!!!! What would this do? Grow Pakistan more and on its own.
> 
> Let's stop the false propaganda please.



So quoting 600 million as the "current" data (when it comes from 2011 at best) is fine for India...but 46% applied to 2014 and in 2 years time the "focus" has completely changed in Pakistan?

I don't have to convince you, I'll let the numbers from the IMF and world bank do the talking.

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Yes this is the umpteenth time you have asserted this. Maybe add a little variety. You are that half-brazilian guy from that previous forum right? Things barely change with you I see, though I notice you are more cautious here since you will get banned here for the stuff you used to spout in the other place.




LOL....lol........it's the truth though.  The PTB that ensured Pakistan becomes a nuclear weapons state when it was virtually impossible to do so (on paper) and the world was against it is the same force that will ensure CPEC makes Pakistan an economic powerhouse. Something that is far easier to do so.


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## litman

A-Team said:


> Ok I have been reading about CPEC and its impact on Pakistan and the region. Now can someone please correct me if I am wrong, from a nutshell it looks like a well oiled transit route which China will use to egress and ingress its products easily to the outside world and Pakistan.
> 
> Some quick questions.
> 
> - What does Pakistan gain from it apart from transit fees ?
> 
> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?
> 
> - What is the main Pakistani export to China that is currently not being undertaken using the current road networks
> 
> /Peace
> 
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949


you can well imagine the importance of CPEC from the simple fact that usa, india, afghanistan and iran are doing their best to spoil the project.

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## A-Team

litman said:


> you can well imagine the importance of CPEC from the simple fact that usa, india, afghanistan and iran are doing their best to spoil the project.[/QUOTE
> 
> I can't speak for Iran or India but Afghanistan benefits from it and thus see this a positive project.


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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> LOL....lol........it's the truth though.  The PTB that ensured Pakistan becomes a nuclear weapons state when it was virtually impossible to do so (on paper) and the world was against it is the same force that will ensure CPEC makes Pakistan an economic powerhouse. Something that is far easier to do so.



Enjoy it when Pakistan grows under 5% yet again this year....and more CPEC dream stories come out to deflect attention from the reality (its always just around the corner!). Its the new eternal pipe dream for Pakistan....a country that has 13% gross capital formation in terms of GDP for many years running now (if you even know what that means).

Its easy to acquire nukes when China hands over the CHIC-4 design in the 80s.

Actually investing in schools and education so CPEC isnt a bloated white elephant is the hard part for Pakistan's politicians and bureaucrats.....since they have to be interested in actually getting the % of kids completing high school past say 2 thirds (from the less than half its currently stuck in, worse than a number of the poorest sub saharan countries). Not to mention the terrible quality of those that do pass through which makes them unemployable in modern industry (why do you think the Chinese have cleverly commited to Tier 1 capacity and next to nothing in the realm of actual manufacturing and industry).

So laugh all you want, the big joke is Pakistans economic growth rate for the last several years which shows no signs of improving according to just about everyone.


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## farhan_9909

Nilgiri said:


> Enjoy it when Pakistan grows under 5% yet again this year....and more CPEC dream stories come out to deflect attention from the reality (its always just around the corner!). Its the new eternal pipe dream for Pakistan....a country that has 13% gross capital formation in terms of GDP for many years running now (if you even know what that means).
> 
> Its easy to acquire nukes when China hands over the CHIC-4 design in the 80s.
> 
> Actually investing in schools and education so CPEC isnt a bloated white elephant is the hard part for Pakistan's politicians and bureaucrats.....since they have to be interested in actually getting the % of kids completing high school past say 2 thirds (from the less than half its currently stuck in, worse than a number of the poorest sub saharan countries). Not to mention the terrible quality of those that do pass through which makes them unemployable in modern industry (why do you think the Chinese have cleverly commited to Tier 1 capacity and next to nothing in the realm of actual manufacturing and industry).
> 
> So laugh all you want, the big joke is Pakistans economic growth rate for the last several years which shows no signs of improving according to just about everyone.



if this year the Industrial sector sustain the growth rate and possible improvement in agri sector,Pakistan can grow beyond 5% considering that this year budget is pro agri sector.

i read in a report that if the agri sector had performed like last year(not the target),the growth rate would had been 5.2%.

though i agree we may cross 5% next year but i don't call this any improvement unless we even surpass the set target of 5.7%

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## Hakikat ve Hikmet

farhan_9909 said:


> if this year the Industrial sector sustain the growth rate and possible improvement in agri sector,Pakistan can grow beyond 5% considering that this year budget is pro agri sector.
> 
> i read in a report that if the agri sector had performed like last year(not the target),the growth rate would had been 5.2%.
> 
> though i agree we may cross 5% next year but i don't call this any improvement unless we even surpass the set target of 5.7%


Pak economy has all the ingredients for the growth. Only the _Helva_ needs to be cooked.

Now, I'd like to share a few staffs from the Turkish experience regarding the revival of the economy under the Muslim government of Reis Erdo'an. Before 2002, Turkey used to suffer economic crisis/meltdowns every few years due to high rate of borrowing, hyper inflation, stagnant business sector etc. specially under secular governments. Whenever governments were pro-Muslim like that during 1950-60; 1965-70 or 1980-90, Turkey used to have continuous growth. What's the secret? I'm no expert on that but from the reflexes of _Millet _we know that there are some knobs to stimulate the economy from the government side:

Monetary/fiscal policies: get rid of IMF. Don't fully believe in their theories. There are many other venues to spur the growth through careful policy making based on Islamic traditions. I have to admit Turkey's Muslim economic bureaucrats are quite expert on that, and Reis Erdo'an has given them a free hand. End result: quadrupling the economy in the last 14 years with no economic crises, and the best part being the kicking out of the IMF from the Turkish shores forever. You have to hire them to know the secrets.
State shouldn't get involved in businesses or industries. Make them public companies and sell them. Make your trusted and eligible _Dindar _folks as CEOs.
More than 50% of the economy is undocumented. _Esnaf (_self employed traders, entrepreneurs etc.) are the major stake holders of that part. Make policies to facilitate their activities, and slowly try to document them so that taxes can be collected.
Help SMEs, agri sector etc.
Don't shy away from large projects like barrages, power generation, highways, mass housing etc.
Encourage investments.
etc.

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## Nilgiri

HAKIKAT said:


> Pak economy has all the ingredients for the growth. Only the _Helva_ needs to be cooked.
> 
> Now, I'd like to share a few staffs from the Turkish experience regarding the revival of the economy under the Muslim government of Reis Erdo'an. Before 2002, Turkey used to suffer economic crisis/meltdowns every few years due to high rate of borrowing, hyper inflation, stagnant business sector etc. specially under secular governments. Whenever governments were pro-Muslim like that during 1950-60; 1965-70 or 1980-90, Turkey used to have continuous growth. What's the secret? I'm no expert on that but from the reflexes of _Millet _we know that there are some knobs to stimulate the economy from the government side:
> 
> Monetary/fiscal policies: get rid of IMF. Don't fully believe in their theories. There are many other venues to spur the growth through careful policy making based on Islamic traditions. I have to admit Turkey's Muslim economic bureaucrats are quite expert on that, and Reis Erdo'an has given them a free hand. End result: quadrupling the economy in the last 14 years with no economic crises, and the best part being the kicking out of the IMF from the Turkish shores forever. You have to hire them to know the secrets.
> State shouldn't get involved in businesses or industries. Make them public companies and sell them. Make your trusted and eligible _Dindar _folks as CEOs.
> More than 50% of the economy is undocumented. _Esnaf (_self employed traders, entrepreneurs etc.) are the major stake holders of that part. Make policies to facilitate their activities, and slowly try to document them so that taxes can be collected.
> Help SMEs, agri sector etc.
> Don't shy away from large projects like barrages, power generation, highways, mass housing etc.
> Encourage investments.
> etc.



Pakistan is missing one vital ingredient: quality and quantity education for its children and youth.

Turkey in 2002 or any year in recent times was way ahead of Pakistan in this currently.


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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Enjoy it when Pakistan grows under 5% yet again this year....and more CPEC dream stories come out to deflect attention from the reality (its always just around the corner!). Its the new eternal pipe dream for Pakistan....a country that has 13% gross capital formation in terms of GDP for many years running now (if you even know what that means).
> 
> Its easy to acquire nukes when China hands over the CHIC-4 design in the 80s.
> 
> Actually investing in schools and education so CPEC isnt a bloated white elephant is the hard part for Pakistan's politicians and bureaucrats.....since they have to be interested in actually getting the % of kids completing high school past say 2 thirds (from the less than half its currently stuck in, worse than a number of the poorest sub saharan countries). Not to mention the terrible quality of those that do pass through which makes them unemployable in modern industry (why do you think the Chinese have cleverly commited to Tier 1 capacity and next to nothing in the realm of actual manufacturing and industry).
> 
> So laugh all you want, the big joke is Pakistans economic growth rate for the last several years which shows no signs of improving according to just about everyone.



Think you Indian people have more important things to worry about than the growth or not of the Pakistani economy. It is not Pakistan that has at least 33% of the world's most severely malnourished and extreme poor. It is your country: 

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indias-malnutrition-shame/

http://m.firstpost.com/business/eco...ne-that-shows-67-of-india-is-poor-993241.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-third-of-worlds-poorest-says-World-Bank.html

What good is your economy on paper when the above hell is the reality of your nation and race. I'd rather fail on paper than have the above reality for my country.

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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> Think you Indian people have more important things to worry about than the growth or not of the Pakistani economy. It is not Pakistan that has at least 33% of the world's most severely malnourished and extreme poor. It is your country:
> 
> http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indias-malnutrition-shame/
> 
> http://m.firstpost.com/business/eco...ne-that-shows-67-of-india-is-poor-993241.html
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-third-of-worlds-poorest-says-World-Bank.html
> 
> What good is your economy on paper when the above hell is the reality of your nation and race. I'd rather fail on paper than have the above reality for my country.



Overall human development is higher than Pakistan (look at Indian HDI versus Pakistan.....India has higher life expectancy, higher education prevalence and higher income and is improving a lot quicker than Pakistan even though Pakistan should be since its well behind). India improved its HDI by 6 ranks between 2009 and 2014, whereas Pakistan stagnated (0 rank change).

Pakistan in Human Development in 2014 is at the level India was in 2004 (about 10 years behind and increasing).

India is better than Pakistan when it comes to malnutrition/hunger:

http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/IND/

http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/PAK/

and again improving faster (India improved by 9.5 points in 10 years compared to Pakistan's improvement of 4.4 points in same time period).

So the reality is worse overall in your country according to the international calibrated measures for social development.

Nepal and Bangladesh both are better in HDI than Pakistan ( a country that suffers from polio still because social health workers are deliberately targetted and killed because of the prevalent belief of vaccine conspiracies)....and I bet you Afghanistan is not far behind surpassing Pakistan one day as well in social development:

http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI

Pakistan is a full 14 ranks behind its income rank compared to 4 for India, illustrating that its social development is far behind even its income development compared to India.

That is the reality of the situation overall. Cherry picking one or two articles and ignoring the larger picture is quite foolhardy.

Yes we are two different people and we are leaving you in the dust more and more with each passing year. The neutrally compiled data confirms it.

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Overall human development is higher than Pakistan (look at Indian HDI versus Pakistan.....India has higher life expectancy, higher education prevalence and higher income and is improving a lot quicker than Pakistan even though Pakistan should be since its well behind). India improved its HDI by 6 ranks between 2009 and 2014, whereas Pakistan stagnated (0 rank change).
> 
> Pakistan in Human Development in 2014 is at the level India was in 2004 (about 10 years behind and increasing).
> 
> India is better than Pakistan when it comes to malnutrition/hunger:
> 
> http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/IND/
> 
> http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/PAK/
> 
> and again improving faster (India improved by 9.5 points in 10 years compared to Pakistan's improvement of 4.4 points in same time period).
> 
> So the reality is worse overall in your country according to the international calibrated measures for social development.
> 
> Nepal and Bangladesh both are better in HDI than Pakistan ( a country that suffers from polio still because social health workers are deliberately targetted and killed because of the prevalent belief of vaccine conspiracies)....and I bet you Afghanistan is not far behind surpassing Pakistan one day as well in social development:
> 
> http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI
> 
> Pakistan is a full 14 ranks behind its income rank compared to 4 for India, illustrating that its social development is far behind even its income development compared to India.
> 
> That is the reality of the situation overall. Cherry picking one or two articles and ignoring the larger picture is quite foolhardy.
> 
> Yes we are two different people and we are leaving you in the dust more and more with each passing year. The neutrally compiled data confirms it.




Really! I thought that you and your compatriots said india was already a superpower. Ahead of China and set to over take america in 5 years. Do superpowers have any poverty at all?

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

baba1998 said:


> its great as you have proved from your posts that india is behind pakistan is all indicators that means pakistan is much ahead of china and overtook america. and is a hyperpower because of cpac project where all the worlds trade will be routed to gwadar and japan and china and have that cpec access to trade between themselves.




LOL.........Indian sarcasm and humour at it's best.....lol

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

baba1998 said:


> thanks frnd , so tell me more about cpec can India and kenya trade through this route ??? which will turn pakistan more develop than china coz of cpec




CPEC aside, as long as Pakistanis don't end up looking like indians, we will always be successful and winners.......lol....


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## PAKISTANFOREVER

baba1998 said:


> the way world looks at pakistanis right now, even somialians are better off




I'm glad they are. But I certainly don't give a toss and couldn't care less.


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## Khan_21

Nilgiri said:


> Overall human development is higher than Pakistan (look at Indian HDI versus Pakistan.....India has higher life expectancy, higher education prevalence and higher income and is improving a lot quicker than Pakistan even though Pakistan should be since its well behind). India improved its HDI by 6 ranks between 2009 and 2014, whereas Pakistan stagnated (0 rank change).
> 
> Pakistan in Human Development in 2014 is at the level India was in 2004 (about 10 years behind and increasing).
> 
> India is better than Pakistan when it comes to malnutrition/hunger:
> 
> http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/IND/
> 
> http://ghi.ifpri.org/countries/PAK/
> 
> and again improving faster (India improved by 9.5 points in 10 years compared to Pakistan's improvement of 4.4 points in same time period).
> 
> So the reality is worse overall in your country according to the international calibrated measures for social development.
> 
> Nepal and Bangladesh both are better in HDI than Pakistan ( a country that suffers from polio still because social health workers are deliberately targetted and killed because of the prevalent belief of vaccine conspiracies)....and I bet you Afghanistan is not far behind surpassing Pakistan one day as well in social development:
> 
> http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI
> 
> Pakistan is a full 14 ranks behind its income rank compared to 4 for India, illustrating that its social development is far behind even its income development compared to India.
> 
> That is the reality of the situation overall. Cherry picking one or two articles and ignoring the larger picture is quite foolhardy.
> 
> Yes we are two different people and we are leaving you in the dust more and more with each passing year. The neutrally compiled data confirms it.



First of all India is regarded as a poor and dirty country by almost everyone . Our cities are not pile of garbage . Your cities have the honour of being the most polluted and dirtiest in the world .

http://www.indiatimes.com/travel/mumbai-voted-worlds-dirtiest-city-50300.html

http://indianexpress.com/article/ci...world-delhi-suffers-from-a-toxic-blend-study/

And considering Indians living habits I am not surprised they are fond of living in that dirt at all .

Second incase of income it wasn't until 7 years ago that you passed us . So that means for 65 years you were behind . . Human development index is not the be all end all . Pakistan is ranked well ahead then India in world happiness report 2016 . In terms of poverty , your percentage of population is way higher which suffer from poverty just check world bank figures or human development 2016 report . PK is ahead even on another Happiness index which is Happy planet Index . And the Life expectancy for both countries is almost equal so don't misguide people . 

http://www.happyplanetindex.org/data/

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...els-higher-than-Pakistans-says-UN-report.html

In absolute terms, 41.6 per cent of India's 1.1 billion people earned less than 78 pence per day compared with 22.6 per cent of Pakistan's 173 million.

The report quotes its 'multi-dimensional poverty index' which includes measures of schooling, child mortality, nutrition, access to electricity, toilets, drinking water, and hygienic living conditions, and reveals India is poorer.
It found 53.7 per cent of Indians suffering from this broader kind of poverty, compared with 49 per cent of Pakistanis.

So according to this report India is behind on poverty , access to electricity , living in hygenic conditions and what not .

You might as learn from Pakistan how to live in a clean way .

http://tribune.com.pk/story/883648/...n-improving-water-and-sanitation-study-shows/

Pakistan was ranked five and India 92 .

And finally there loads of areas where Pakistan excell India like road infrastructure , Access to electricity ( only 75 % of India has electricity compared to 92 of ours) , sanitation etc etc . Just check hundreds of indicators here and you will find loads of fields where Pakistan is ahead .

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

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## EAK

Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...
> 
> local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.
> 
> and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.



Yes dear hater we will gain nothing ..happy.. now you can sleep in peace..


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## Viper0011.

Nilgiri said:


> Overall human development is higher than Pakistan (look at Indian HDI versus Pakistan.....India has higher life expectancy, higher education prevalence and higher income and is improving a lot quicker than Pakistan even though Pakistan should be since its well behind). India improved its HDI by 6 ranks between 2009 and 2014, whereas Pakistan stagnated (0 rank change).
> 
> Pakistan in Human Development in 2014 is at the level India was in 2004 (about 10 years behind and increasing)..



And these HDI numbers are real? Help me understand......a country where 600 MILLION people don't have access to sanitation, aka, bathrooms, and proper places to eat......that country could jump above many countries? 95% of the countries don't even have a population of 600 million for comparisons.....so that HDI report is paid for. Like the FDI report is fake coming from India. You guys add billions of dollars in Salaries of people working in India and show it as "FDI"...... Yes, the FDI still is high, but its actually 60-70% of what is being shown to the world 

On longer life expectancy, there is a basic reason. Quit eating BEEF and if Pakistanis do that, their life expectancy ALONE will go up by 10 years as 95% of the Heart related deaths take place due to Cholesterol and Smoking in Pakistan. Pakistan has one of the highest consumption of the Red meat (both Beef and Lamb) and Smoking. Remove these, and add 45 minutes of Physical activity a day (walk, run, jog), and you can live 15-20 years longer, scientifically proven.

I went for my Physical last year, and even in the US, they have started to advise all the patients to stay away from Red meat, eat more Fish and Vegetables and spend an hour a day in Walking or Exercising, you'll live much longer. That has NOTHING to do with "growing economy", its a lifestyle issue. India has one of the largest Vegetarian population and naturally, they'll live longer. Vegetarian diet just doesn't have Cholesterol, or its so little that it has no impact versus what you get in Red meat and fatty Oils. Pakistanis love to eat. Indians don't love to eat as much and their portions are smaller too (another recommendations that doctors make to follow).

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## Nilgiri

Viper0011. said:


> And these HDI numbers are real?



Data is collected by the United Nations HDRO. You can take up your disbelief/complaining with them.



Viper0011. said:


> a country where 600 MILLION people don't have access to sanitation, aka, bathrooms, and proper places to eat



You quote old figures. Wait for the Swach Bharat program results. Already millions of toilets have been constructed in just a couple years.



Viper0011. said:


> On longer life expectancy, there is a basic reason. Quit eating BEEF and if Pakistanis do that, their life expectancy ALONE will go up by 10 years as 95% of the Heart related deaths take place due to Cholesterol and Smoking in Pakistan. Pakistan has one of the highest consumption of the Red meat (both Beef and Lamb) and Smoking. Remove these, and add 45 minutes of Physical activity a day (walk, run, jog), and you can live 15-20 years longer, scientifically proven.
> 
> I went for my Physical last year, and even in the US, they have started to advise all the patients to stay away from Red meat, eat more Fish and Vegetables and spend an hour a day in Walking or Exercising, you'll live much longer. That has NOTHING to do with "growing economy", its a lifestyle issue. India has one of the largest Vegetarian population and naturally, they'll live longer. Vegetarian diet just doesn't have Cholesterol, or its so little that it has no impact versus what you get in Red meat and fatty Oils. Pakistanis love to eat. Indians don't love to eat as much and their portions are smaller too (another recommendations that doctors make to follow).



A ridiculous but amusing little spiel by you.

Indians dont live longer because of Vegetarianism. Maybe 1/3rd of Indians are strict Vegetarians to begin with. Plus plenty of higher meat eating countries have longer life expectancies than India.

Pakistanis love to "eat" and Indian's don't? LOL. Indian average calorie intake per capita has consistently been higher than Pakistan for a number of decades now. You can check the base FAO data from the wiki page here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_food_energy_intake#cite_note-4

BTW a proper simple Vegetarian diet will be balanced....but there are unhealthy Vegetarian diets too....in India these include ones where the person eats too much rice/starch, not enough dal/veggies and too much ghee/fat+sugar. That will definitely influence your LDL cholestrol badly over time (especially if exercise is bad too).....dietary cholestrol intake actually has poor corellation with LDL cholestrol in the blood....its more linked to consumption of dietary fats/starches combined with lack of exercise.

Its why India is suffering from a significant amount of Diabetes, high blood pressure and even overweight/obesity issues...more than its average income would predict.

Why Indians are expected to live longer than Pakistanis by two years if current conditions are held is more because of the access to health and greater education (like not shooting vaccine workers because they are jewish agents to make people sterile).

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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> Really! I thought that you and your compatriots said india was already a superpower. Ahead of China and set to over take america in 5 years. Do superpowers have any poverty at all?



Where have I said that India is already a superpower? India is massively underdeveloped and has a large number of problems that are being addressed with time but it will take a good deal longer still to rectify to a reasonable degree.

That has nothing to do with Pakistan being even further behind and being relatively stagnant in addressing its problems.

Of course all countries have poverty to some degree even superpowers (just look at the US for example). A superpower is not defined by its poverty level, but by its total economic, political, cultural and military power projection worldwide. The USSR was considered a superpower even though its poverty (by western standards) was quite high.

Same goes for the UK during the industrial revolution (Victorian era). Lots of its people were in dire relative poverty working in sweatshops and mines....but that didn't mean the UK was not a superpower in that period.

You are confusing what we are talking about here.

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## Nike

CPEC is just a mere projects, and that's not a game changer for the dire situation of Pakistan economic situation currently had. the actual game changer is reformation on bureaucratization system in Pakistani governments institutions, the handling of red tape habits, electrical problems, reformation on basic education system to providing a more qualified human resources in which i clearly sure Pakistan educational system is lack behind her peers among major developing nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil and others, health systems.

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## risingsinga

Taimoor Khan said:


> I will summaries it to you in lehman terms. When you create "mutual inter dependency" with a global power, you are only set to gain from it. Economic, trade, strategist, geopolitical, what not.
> 
> You Afghans should be asking, *wheather you want to be part of this CPEC ,* integrate yourself via Pakistan to the world biggest market and economy, or you are happy to import your pan-parags from India via Charbahar?


Excellent question

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## Nilgiri

madokafc said:


> CPEC is just a mere projects, and that's not a game changer for the dire situation of Pakistan economic situation currently had. the actual game changer is reformation on bureaucratization system in Pakistani governments institutions, the handling of red tape habits, electrical problems, reformation on basic education system to providing a more qualified human resources in which i clearly sure Pakistan educational system is lack behind her peers among major developing nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil and others, health systems.



Thank you, thats exactly what I'm saying. There is underlying structural problems in Pakistan (education + bureaucracy effectiveness/efficiency) that CPEC cannot gloss over especially since its based on loans which need to be repaid (and thus need the end creations to be very financially viable to prevent debt crunch - and that needs the reforms you speak of).


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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Where have I said that India is already a superpower? India is massively underdeveloped and has a large number of problems that are being addressed with time but it will take a good deal longer still to rectify to a reasonable degree.
> 
> That has nothing to do with Pakistan being even further behind and being relatively stagnant in addressing its problems.
> 
> Of course all countries have poverty to some degree even superpowers (just look at the US for example). A superpower is not defined by its poverty level, but by its total economic, political, cultural and military power projection worldwide. The USSR was considered a superpower even though its poverty (by western standards) was quite high.
> 
> Same goes for the UK during the industrial revolution (Victorian era). Lots of its people were in dire relative poverty working in sweatshops and mines....but that didn't mean the UK was not a superpower in that period.
> 
> You are confusing what we are talking about here.




No poverty here in the UK. Only wealth and prosperity. May have not been you but the way some indian trolls on PDF talk about Pakistan is as if india is a hyperpower and is paradise on earth. I've noticed the people who come from the TRUE wealthy nations (England, Germany, France, Japan etc) never troll PDF and criticise Pakistan or any other nation for that matter. It's always people who are from nations with extreme poverty and other huge problems. I myself have never ever been on an indian website, indian forum, watched an indian film/program or ever endorsed anything indian whatsoever in my life. And I never will. The thought makes me feel physically sick. The fact that there are so many Indian trolls on PDF spouting their propaganda and anti-Pakistan hatred conveys their deep insecurity and inferiority complex. Point is that Indian trolls on PDF don't really believe in their nation or race. If they did then they wouldn't be trolling PDF badmouthing CPEC.

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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> No poverty here in the UK. Only wealth and prosperity.



I am talking when the UK was considered a superpower from about 1850 to 1950. The earlier half of that span of years definitely say immense levels of what we would call poverty today in the UK. Look up the working and living conditions of the factories in Manchester and the Mines in Wales. It took time for the wages and conditions to reach levels where decent margins were transferred to the workers, but by then the UK was no longer considered a superpower.

There definitely is a certain amount of poverty in the UK that persists to this day depending how you define it:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32812601



PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> May have not been you but the way some indian trolls on PDF talk about Pakistan is as if india is a hyperpower and is paradise on earth.



Take your issues up with them, not me.



PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> I've noticed the people who come from the TRUE wealthy nations (England, Germany, France, Japan etc) never troll PDF and criticise Pakistan or any other nation for that matter.



I've seen plenty of people from "those" countries criticize Pakistan and other nations in all sorts of ways. There are plenty of threads ongoing right now as we speak. Want me to post them?

You can ask @django about his exchanges with one particular Italian individual .



PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> I myself have never ever been on an indian website, indian forum, watched an indian film/program or ever endorsed anything indian whatsoever in my life. And I never will. The thought makes me feel physically sick.



Yah we will take your word for it. You certainly seem to be unhealthily obssessed with saying so each time you post anything. In my experience people that are genuinely like that dont go around repeating it 24/7 at any opportunity.



PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> The fact that there are so many Indian trolls on PDF spouting their propaganda and anti-Pakistan hatred conveys their deep insecurity and inferiority complex. Point is that Indian trolls on PDF don't really believe in their nation or race. If they did then they wouldn't be trolling PDF badmouthing CPEC.



There are plenty of trolls all over the internet. Why they spend their life like they do is known only to them. I don't think it has anything to do with what they may or may not believe w.r.t India (regarding the ones from there).

In fact I have found a number of Indians on this board are pretty anti-BJP/anti-Modi and butt heads with many other Indian "patriot/conservative" posters but they troll Pakistanis anyway in various other threads sort of to prove their "true Indian" identity because they get exposed otherwise somehow in the other threads....and many of the other Indian "patriots/conservatives" never indulge in such stuff....since they got nothing to prove and are mostly focused on discussing the Indian socio-economic and political scene within the Indian subforums.

Its not such an easy thing to lump everyone into one category. I certainly would not do so for the Pakistani posters here.

Anyways my whole point is to discuss the finer issues of the CPEC strategy and not simply lump it into a great success or great failure (its too early to say either way conclusively anyway). I simply go by the facts and evidence that are available and try to make the most informed analysis/projection. If you can respond without dragging in what you think other Indian members are like that would be ideal. But if you keep dragging this beyond the topic at hand in emotional ways, then there is no point in discussing. I will respond to other members that have a better interest in engaging items factually and logically.

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## 544_delta

A-Team said:


> - Is the term "game changer" being used without being backed by concrete facts and figures ?


everything is a game changer for us dude....untill it isn't...then its onwards to the next "game changer"



Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...
> 
> local businesses will thrive.. enterpreneurs will bloom in SMEs mostly... those will generate taxes.. but wil they offset the loss and compensate for 18% annual interest rate ?? Big question.
> 
> and NO, there might not be any major exports from pakistan except mangoes.


dont you dare downplay the mangoes

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> I am talking when the UK was considered a superpower from about 1850 to 1950. The earlier half of that span of years definitely say immense levels of what we would call poverty today in the UK. Look up the working and living conditions of the factories in Manchester and the Mines in Wales. It took time for the wages and conditions to reach levels where decent margins were transferred to the workers, but by then the UK was no longer considered a superpower.
> 
> There definitely is a certain amount of poverty in the UK that persists to this day depending how you define it:
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32812601
> 
> 
> 
> Take your issues up with them, not me.
> 
> 
> 
> I've seen plenty of people from "those" countries criticize Pakistan and other nations in all sorts of ways. There are plenty of threads ongoing right now as we speak. Want me to post them?
> 
> You can ask @django about his exchanges with one particular Italian individual .
> 
> 
> 
> Yah we will take your word for it. You certainly seem to be unhealthily obssessed with saying so each time you post anything. In my experience people that are genuinely like that dont go around repeating it 24/7 at any opportunity.
> 
> 
> 
> There are plenty of trolls all over the internet. Why they spend their life like they do is known only to them. I don't think it has anything to do with what they may or may not believe w.r.t India (regarding the ones from there).
> 
> In fact I have found a number of Indians on this board are pretty anti-BJP/anti-Modi and butt heads with many other Indian "patriot/conservative" posters but they troll Pakistanis anyway in various other threads sort of to prove their "true Indian" identity because they get exposed otherwise somehow in the other threads....and many of the other Indian "patriots/conservatives" never indulge in such stuff....since they got nothing to prove and are mostly focused on discussing the Indian socio-economic and political scene within the Indian subforums.
> 
> Its not such an easy thing to lump everyone into one category. I certainly would not do so for the Pakistani posters here.
> 
> Anyways my whole point is to discuss the finer issues of the CPEC strategy and not simply lump it into a great success or great failure (its too early to say either way conclusively anyway). I simply go by the facts and evidence that are available and try to make the most informed analysis/projection. If you can respond without dragging in what you think other Indian members are like that would be ideal. But if you keep dragging this beyond the topic at hand in emotional ways, then there is no point in discussing. I will respond to other members that have a better interest in engaging items factually and logically.




It will take at least 15-20 years to gauge the success or failure of CPEC. Even then the outcome will not be clear as CPEC will morph/be superseded by other programs. Good post above though. Good relations read.

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## ssethii

Nilgiri said:


> Thank you, thats exactly what I'm saying. There is underlying structural problems in Pakistan (education + bureaucracy effectiveness/efficiency) that CPEC cannot gloss over especially since its based on loans which need to be repaid (and thus need the end creations to be very financially viable to prevent debt crunch - and that needs the reforms you speak of).


Your concerns are to some extent legitimate but you see necessity is the mother of invention. With same bureaucratic+educational setup we managed to achieve many goals in our short history. The key was delinking them form the existing setup and make special custom made arrangements according to the needs. Prime example being our nuclear program, you may call it plain luck or Chinese assistance but still it shows how things progress when projects are made top priority in nation's agenda list. 
T'm listening to this port's strategic location and how it can connect landlocked central Asian states access to warm waters since my childhood, but nothing materialized and all the efforts made showed no progress on ground partially due to economic instability and militancy. But today's Pakistan is different and all of us are rallying around the vision given us by Chinese president(leadership crisis at home I must admit here) when he announced this project in his state visit to Pakistan not long ago. The pictures from RISAT speak better about how we have embraced that vision, than any words could ever do.

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## Nilgiri

ssethii said:


> Your concerns are to some extent legitimate but you see necessity is the mother of invention. With same bureaucratic+educational setup we managed to achieve many goals in our short history. The key was delinking them form the existing setup and make special custom made arrangements according to the needs. Prime example being our nuclear program, you may call it plain luck or Chinese assistance but still it shows how things progress when projects are made top priority in nation's agenda list.
> T'm listening to this port's strategic location and how it can connect landlocked central Asian states access to warm waters since my childhood, but nothing materialized and all the efforts made showed no progress on ground partially due to economic instability and militancy. But today's Pakistan is different and all of us are rallying around the vision given us by Chinese president(leadership crisis at home I must admit here) when he announced this project in his state visit to Pakistan not long ago. The pictures from RISAT speak better about how we have embraced that vision, than any words could ever do.



There is no guarantee of success or failure. It depends on how hard Pakistan govt/elite works to make the overall concept a success. There can be no regular political gimmicking, bickering and mismanagement especially in the education and training realm. The window I figure is about from now and 10 years or so from now where there is a 180 reversal in Pakistans bureaucratic efficiency.

If Pakistan has indeed begun a new chapter and can genuinely reform its economy and society to the extent needed to "take off" after the CPEC "ignition" then it will be the start of a much larger development acceleration for sure.

But that is a big if for me. I am not seeing enough being done on the human resource front. Each year of delay means many years of mismatched utilisation/capacity ratio down the road which will be bad for the loan structure of this project.

But I am happy to be proven wrong over time.

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## raj76

panama canal prjoect 70 km long todays value 87 bill dollars investment and panama is still a banana republic so pls its not projects its the ppl of a nation which build up GDP. Chinese are already going for automation of there manufacturing units and they have 7-8 times population of pakistan and with less international demand why would they move there jobs to pakistan . They just want a route in which they are investing through chinese companies with assured guarantees by pakistani government in dollars and yes pakistan will benefit but 90% pie goes to china. i just wish pakistan was in a better position to balance that share of the pie


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## ssethii

Nilgiri said:


> There is no guarantee of success or failure. It depends on how hard Pakistan govt/elite works to make the overall concept a success. There can be no regular political gimmicking, bickering and mismanagement especially in the education and training realm. The window I figure is about from now and 10 years or so from now where there is a 180 reversal in Pakistans bureaucratic efficiency.
> 
> If Pakistan has indeed begun a new chapter and can genuinely reform its economy and society to the extent needed to "take off" after the CPEC "ignition" then it will be the start of a much larger development acceleration for sure.
> 
> But that is a big if for me. I am not seeing enough being done on the human resource front. Each year of delay means many years of mismatched utilisation/capacity ratio down the road which will be bad for the loan structure of this project.
> 
> But I am happy to be proven wrong over time.


I agree on the point that human resource development has never been a priority and this along with security situation, is why we see ever growing number of brain drain each year. But this will not effect this project due to the parallel Chinese assistance. And probably that is why a special force has been raised to ensure their safety as well.
If the status-quo remains viz-e-viz this situation we may see a longer Chinese stay than envisaged.

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## Nilgiri

ssethii said:


> I agree on the point that human resource development has never been a priority and this along with security situation, is why we see ever growing number of brain drain each year. But this will not effect this project due to the parallel Chinese assistance. And probably that is why a special force has been raised to ensure their safety as well.
> If the status-quo remains viz-e-viz this situation we may see a longer Chinese stay than envisaged.



You are optimistic. It is fine, you are from Pakistan and you have every right to be.

I will stay removed and observant over next few years or so. Let's see how it goes.


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## ssethii

Nilgiri said:


> You are optimistic. It is fine, you are from Pakistan and you have every right to be.
> 
> I will stay removed and observant over next few years or so. Let's see how it goes.


Don't give up so early, you can always try to persuade others to think otherwise with your facts. I was rather enjoying your line of argument as it made sense which is quite rare to be honest coming from across the border. The project in itself is very ambitious strengthened only by the special relation Pakistan enjoys with it's counterpart and that is the root cause for such optimism for us.

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## Nilgiri

ssethii said:


> Don't give up so early, you can always try to persuade others to think otherwise with your facts. I was rather enjoying your line of argument as it made sense which is quite rare to be honest coming from across the border. The project in itself is very ambitious strengthened only by the special relation Pakistan enjoys with it's counterpart and that is the root cause for such optimism for us.



Oh I will discuss various points as they come up. By waiting I mean I need to wait for more data to come out. Right now its quite early still.

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## PAKISTANFOREVER

Nilgiri said:


> Oh I will discuss various points as they come up. By waiting I mean I need to wait for more data to come out. Right now its quite early still.



For someone who isn't Pakistani or Chinese, why are you so interested in the succcess or failure of CPEC?

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## Nilgiri

PAKISTANFOREVER said:


> For someone who isn't Pakistani or Chinese, why are you so interested in the succcess or failure of CPEC?



I enjoy discussing economics related issues. 46 billion USD is obviously a large proposed investment for Pakistan economy. It is also the first time China is trying something of this scale, most of their investments so far worldwide involve resource extraction + stand alone infra, not long term logistics/connected network. It will be interesting to see if the spare capacity/liquidity China now has plays a big role in CPEC financing and what the end result will be eventually.


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## PAKISTANFOREVER

baba1998 said:


> is not this obvious he is jealous of the CPEC power that will make pakistan centre of planet's trade and fill it with mony, CPEC has so much mony that pakistan can raise the defence budget to 100 billion by next decade and as we Indians are your enemy we should do analisys how to get in terms with CPEC power pakistan.
> I have also started reading about CPEC in internet lots of topics I wanna to discuss on this. I am specially interested in route that wil go from queta and peshawar lots of investments are coming.



LOL.....Think you're being overly melodramatic. He is a good poster who asks good questions. Good at analysing things aswell. Albeit I don't really agree with his POV.


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## ssethii



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## Nilgiri

Khan_21 said:


> First of all India is regarded as a poor and dirty country by almost everyone . Our cities are not pile of garbage . Your cities have the honour of being the most polluted and dirtiest in the world .
> 
> http://www.indiatimes.com/travel/mumbai-voted-worlds-dirtiest-city-50300.html
> 
> http://indianexpress.com/article/ci...world-delhi-suffers-from-a-toxic-blend-study/
> 
> And considering Indians living habits I am not surprised they are fond of living in that dirt at all .
> 
> Second incase of income it wasn't until 7 years ago that you passed us . So that means for 65 years you were behind . . Human development index is not the be all end all . Pakistan is ranked well ahead then India in world happiness report 2016 . In terms of poverty , your percentage of population is way higher which suffer from poverty just check world bank figures or human development 2016 report . PK is ahead even on another Happiness index which is Happy planet Index . And the Life expectancy for both countries is almost equal so don't misguide people .
> 
> http://www.happyplanetindex.org/data/
> 
> http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/IND
> http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/country/PAK
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...els-higher-than-Pakistans-says-UN-report.html
> 
> In absolute terms, 41.6 per cent of India's 1.1 billion people earned less than 78 pence per day compared with 22.6 per cent of Pakistan's 173 million.
> 
> The report quotes its 'multi-dimensional poverty index' which includes measures of schooling, child mortality, nutrition, access to electricity, toilets, drinking water, and hygienic living conditions, and reveals India is poorer.
> It found 53.7 per cent of Indians suffering from this broader kind of poverty, compared with 49 per cent of Pakistanis.
> 
> So according to this report India is behind on poverty , access to electricity , living in hygenic conditions and what not .
> 
> You might as learn from Pakistan how to live in a clean way .
> 
> http://tribune.com.pk/story/883648/...n-improving-water-and-sanitation-study-shows/
> 
> Pakistan was ranked five and India 92 .
> 
> And finally there loads of areas where Pakistan excell India like road infrastructure , Access to electricity ( only 75 % of India has electricity compared to 92 of ours) , sanitation etc etc . Just check hundreds of indicators here and you will find loads of fields where Pakistan is ahead .
> 
> http://data.worldbank.org/indicator



Im not saying Pakistan is behind in everything and India is ahead in everything. But overall India is ahead by most composite measures of development (the most famous being HDI)....and its putting more distance between the two each year.

For all the claimed better hygiene and health and cleanliness...why are Pakistanis expected to live 2 years less than Indians on average? That means when India continues to get its act together in the remaining places its lagging...that means the average Indian may soon live 5+ years than the average Pakistani and then even more.


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## OrionHunter

Laozi said:


> CPEC is truly a unique case.
> 
> CPEC is being financed by China and Chinese private sector in form of Direct Investments and Loans.
> 
> Pakistan is in no position to assure high rate of Interest or High profits to Chinese.
> 
> Therefore the onus is on China to make this project viable to get its money back.
> 
> But the dichotomy is that China is known for killing other nations Industries and creating jobs only for Chinese citizens
> 
> *OR*
> 
> There could be a different game plan altogether
> 
> Chinese will only build the Gwadar Port, CPEC's roads and pipelines infra as a part of their future Defence Strategy.
> 
> Chinese will not be looking at the economic viability of CPEC but look at it purely as Defence expenditure
> *
> ONLY TIME WILL TELL*


The Chinese long term game plan is to establish a naval base at Gwadar for dominating the IOR and the Strait of Hormuz. The industries and power projects that are supposed to be part of the project are just side shows - a carrot dangled in front of the Pakistanis to persuade them shed their land for free for what are basically Chinese projects. 

Someone did mention the thousands of megawatts of power that would be made available, but failed to mention that the cost per unit would be in the range of Rs 18-20 PKR, not cheap by any standards. That would be unaffordable to the ordinary Pakistani. After all, the Chinese companies investing in the CPEC have to pay back the enormous amount of loans they have taken from China's Central Bank and other lending institutions at high rates of interest.

Out of the $46 billion, $11 billion is a loan given by the Chinese to Pakistan for construction of motorways at high interest rates. But the question is: What is Pakistan going to export using this motorway that it is not exporting already? Export of low value goods such as textiles and mangoes would not be viable as the cost of transportation would be more than the cost of goods! Until Pakistan gears up to export high value goods such as steel, iron ore, specialized auto parts, automobiles, engineering goods and so on, using this road would be a non starter.

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## Nilgiri

OrionHunter said:


> Out of the $46 billion, $11 billion is a loan given by the Chinese to Pakistan for construction of motorways at high interest rates.



How high are these interest rates you talk of? As far as I know the standard rates being charged are 1.6% and 2% depending on the location. The higher interest rates normally govern the energy projects, not the transport/construction stuff.



OrionHunter said:


> Until Pakistan gears up to export high value goods such as steel, iron ore, specialized auto parts, automobiles, engineering goods and so on, using this road would be a non starter.



Steel and iron ore are not high value goods. Iron ore especially so is a non-replaceable raw commodity so a high population developing country should never really export it. Steel also only pays of its capex after many years as well given the scales to make it economically esp in todays environment of cheap chinese steel importing. Manufacturing is the only thing Pakistan should be looking at for high value....but it needs to train its kids and youth a lot better first....and bring in lots more economic reform with prudent fiscal policy.

Basic premise of your post is well thought out however.

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## optimisticlad

Akhill said:


> I dont think they are going to get any transit fee... Roads are built by them and pakistan has to repay at a rate of 18% on dollar value... Gwadar is leased for 40 years as of now and chinese have all rights on port.. no fees for Pakistan as per my understanding... power plants are also chinese companies, chinese engineers and chinese maintenance... but pakistan has to payback at 18% interest rate... i am not sure what pakistan will gain...


i you are ill informed and not sure about your comments ...you better stay away from this discussion
Thankx


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## Khan_21

Nilgiri said:


> Im not saying Pakistan is behind in everything and India is ahead in everything. But overall India is ahead by most composite measures of development (the most famous being HDI)....and its putting more distance between the two each year.
> 
> For all the claimed better hygiene and health and cleanliness...why are Pakistanis expected to live 2 years less than Indians on average? That means when India continues to get its act together in the remaining places its lagging...that means the average Indian may soon live 5+ years than the average Pakistani and then even more.



If India is ahead in HDI then Pakistan is ahead in world happiness report and Happy planet index . Both measures quality of life in a different way . Income distribution is much better in Pakistan and that is why you see much more prosperity across Pakistan compared to India . 

As for life expectancy its almost equal the difference is negligible . 

http://www.infoplease.com/world/statistics/life-expectancy-country.html

2015 estimates

India 68
Pakistan 67

https://www.google.com/#q=life+expectancy+pakistan

Just check the history of life expectancy and you will find India just got level around 2 years ago . There were times when the life expectancy gap between Pakistan and India was 6 years . Just like GDP per capita , India got level with us just recently when historically India was always behind . 

We suffered greatly from 2008-2013 due to terrorism and that's what affected everything in Pakistan . With terrorism almost dead now every indicator is looking positive for Pakistan .

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## Nilgiri

Khan_21 said:


> If India is ahead in HDI then Pakistan is ahead in world happiness report and Happy planet index . Both measures quality of life in a different way . Income distribution is much better in Pakistan and that is why you see much more prosperity across Pakistan compared to India .
> 
> As for life expectancy its almost equal the difference is negligible .
> 
> http://www.infoplease.com/world/statistics/life-expectancy-country.html
> 
> 2015 estimates
> 
> India 68
> Pakistan 67
> 
> https://www.google.com/#q=life+expectancy+pakistan
> 
> Just check the history of life expectancy and you will find India just got level around 2 years ago . There were times when the life expectancy gap between Pakistan and India was 6 years . Just like GDP per capita , India got level with us just recently when historically India was always behind .
> 
> We suffered greatly from 2008-2013 due to terrorism and that's what affected everything in Pakistan . With terrorism almost dead now every indicator is looking positive for Pakistan .



I am quoting from UN data, not CIA world factbook. I personally feel the UN is more transparent about the methodology it uses whereas CIA just releases a number in its factbook each year based on some averages without explaining what they were.

I also am leery of composite indices like GNH that use "perception" ratings and flim flammy components like "generosity" with no explanation of their weightage or structured methodology beyond surveys (and no accompanying bias/error analysis).

I prefer it when we have numbers that can be computed from large volumes of direct observed/measured data.

Thats why I wont even quote the 100s of other such composite measures where India outpaces Pakistan (like failed state index and such), because a lot of them use this wishy washy stuff about democratic happiness, security perception and all kinds of other things that I feel end up being more subjective than objective.

Income distribution also does not mean much to me compared to absolute poverty rate (which Pakistan is better in but not by much). Thats because to get growth you need to allow income inequality to expand for a few decades. It happened to every society as it industrialises, even the USSR as hard as it tried to fight it (And ended up fiscally and politically failing because of it combined with pressure from its military spending strategy). Only later does social welfare kick in to smoothen out the income distribution (And even this is quite controversial to let happen but thats a topic for another day)



Khan_21 said:


> Just check the history of life expectancy and you will find India just got level around 2 years ago . There were times when the life expectancy gap between Pakistan and India was 6 years . Just like GDP per capita , India got level with us just recently when historically India was always behind .



Well Pakistan is a smaller country and inherited a higher GDP per capita at independence and higher aid inflow per capita along with possibly a better organised bureaucracy for its first 20 years or so. The stagnation started because for some reason education was always grossly ignored in Pakistan compared to India. The deepset difference started from the 80s onwards when India pulled ahead quite drastically in enrolment, completion rate, literacy rates, youth literacy, transfer rate, female education and other such indices (you can look up the data in the UNESCO database or even the google thing you are using which uses World Bank data)....and now India is quite far ahead.

To me education is the absolute key and crux (because of how it feeds into the base of health, income and many other important things), and it is worrying that pakistan bureau of statistics is reporting a drop in overall literacy rate of Pakistan in recent years.

That is the major reason why India is pulling ahead in many key areas and overcame the initial socio-economic advantage Pakistan enjoyed to some degree.

https://www.google.ca/publicdata/ex...0&tend=1339560000000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

Its the difference in education that more than offset the difference in life expectancy and income in the earlier period you were talking of going back some time:

http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/trends

http://www.photius.com/rankings/human_developement_index_1975-2005.html



Khan_21 said:


> We suffered greatly from 2008-2013 due to terrorism and that's what affected everything in Pakistan . With terrorism almost dead now every indicator is looking positive for Pakistan .



Education is not looking so hot. It needs to be fixed ASAP or Pakistan will slip further behind in the development race. It feeds into things like health (an educated person is more likely not to be violent towards a Polio worker trying to vaccinate his kids etc...), income (obviously determines your potential and type of job) and many other important things.

This has little to do with the war on terror, since Pakistan education budget amount is generally mediocre to bad...but whats really bad is the transfer efficiency and transparency of the bureaucracy (i.e what actually gets spent efficiently instead of pilfered or wasted for captive corruption). Educating kids is not a very expensive affair, but it needs commitment and a good bureaucracy if you are to do it through a public initiative. Then there is high school education which is in a very bad state of affairs. Fewer than 50% of kids graduated lower secondary school in Pakistan (increasing at about 1.7% a year from 2008 - 2014)... Thats half of your demographic dividend spoiled right from the get go in the attempt to get people to middle class. Compare this with 80% for India in 2013 (and improving by about 2.6% every year from 2008 - 2013):






You can find more such data about education at:

http://data.uis.unesco.org/

Just like when working out if you had to choose 1 exercise, it would be swimming since it works out every part of your body....if you have to choose one sector to gauge a country's development by....it would be education.....because it illustrates where the country is headed and its potential.

Thats the main basis for me saying India is ahead. I don't mean to say Pakistan is behind in everything related to development....but it is well behind in this most important thing (Education). Its the very reason for India surpassing over time every other development indicator which it used to be behind. Education really is that important....because of its crossover effects. I hope Pakistan addresses it ASAP.

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## Khan_21

Nilgiri said:


> I am quoting from UN data, not CIA world factbook. I personally feel the UN is more transparent about the methodology it uses whereas CIA just releases a number in its factbook each year based on some averages without explaining what they were.
> 
> I also am leery of composite indices like GNH that use "perception" ratings and flim flammy components like "generosity" with no explanation of their weightage or structured methodology beyond surveys (and no accompanying bias/error analysis).
> 
> I prefer it when we have numbers that can be computed from large volumes of direct observed/measured data.
> 
> Thats why I wont even quote the 100s of other such composite measures where India outpaces Pakistan (like failed state index and such), because a lot of them use this wishy washy stuff about democratic happiness, security perception and all kinds of other things that I feel end up being more subjective than objective.
> 
> Income distribution also does not mean much to me compared to absolute poverty rate (which Pakistan is better in but not by much). Thats because to get growth you need to allow income inequality to expand for a few decades. It happened to every society as it industrialises, even the USSR as hard as it tried to fight it (And ended up fiscally and politically failing because of it combined with pressure from its military spending strategy). Only later does social welfare kick in to smoothen out the income distribution (And even this is quite controversial to let happen but thats a topic for another day)
> 
> 
> 
> Well Pakistan is a smaller country and inherited a higher GDP per capita at independence and higher aid inflow per capita along with possibly a better organised bureaucracy for its first 20 years or so. The stagnation started because for some reason education was always grossly ignored in Pakistan compared to India. The deepset difference started from the 80s onwards when India pulled ahead quite drastically in enrolment, completion rate, literacy rates, youth literacy, transfer rate, female education and other such indices (you can look up the data in the UNESCO database or even the google thing you are using which uses World Bank data)....and now India is quite far ahead.
> 
> To me education is the absolute key and crux (because of how it feeds into the base of health, income and many other important things), and it is worrying that pakistan bureau of statistics is reporting a drop in overall literacy rate of Pakistan in recent years.
> 
> That is the major reason why India is pulling ahead in many key areas and overcame the initial socio-economic advantage Pakistan enjoyed to some degree.
> 
> https://www.google.ca/publicdata/ex...0&tend=1339560000000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
> 
> Its the difference in education that more than offset the difference in life expectancy and income in the earlier period you were talking of going back some time:
> 
> http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/trends
> 
> http://www.photius.com/rankings/human_developement_index_1975-2005.html
> 
> 
> 
> Education is not looking so hot. It needs to be fixed ASAP or Pakistan will slip further behind in the development race. It feeds into things like health (an educated person is more likely not to be violent towards a Polio worker trying to vaccinate his kids etc...), income (obviously determines your potential and type of job) and many other important things.
> 
> This has little to do with the war on terror, since Pakistan education budget amount is generally mediocre to bad...but whats really bad is the transfer efficiency and transparency of the bureaucracy (i.e what actually gets spent efficiently instead of pilfered or wasted for captive corruption). Educating kids is not a very expensive affair, but it needs commitment and a good bureaucracy if you are to do it through a public initiative. Then there is high school education which is in a very bad state of affairs. Fewer than 50% of kids graduated lower secondary school in Pakistan (increasing at about 1.7% a year from 2008 - 2014)... Thats half of your demographic dividend spoiled right from the get go in the attempt to get people to middle class. Compare this with 80% for India in 2013 (and improving by about 2.6% every year from 2008 - 2013):
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can find more such data about education at:
> 
> http://data.uis.unesco.org/
> 
> Just like when working out if you had to choose 1 exercise, it would be swimming since it works out every part of your body....if you have to choose one sector to gauge a country's development by....it would be education.....because it illustrates where the country is headed and its potential.
> 
> Thats the main basis for me saying India is ahead. I don't mean to say Pakistan is behind in everything related to development....but it is well behind in this most important thing (Education). Its the very reason for India surpassing over time every other development indicator which it used to be behind. Education really is that important....because of its crossover effects. I hope Pakistan addresses it ASAP.



What is the drop out rate in India in places where there is insurgency? Probably low and compared to national average lower than that .Lets see what is the literacy rate for north -east India and their education rate compared to rest of India? Insurgency hit areas in Pakistan from 08-13 were KPK , FATA belt and balochistan . Schools got destroyed and people stopped sending their kids to school . Do you know how much improvement their has been in KPK alone in 3 years because of relative peace ? . Its now about to rival punjab for literacy rate . Places where there is insurgency , education , health and daily life gets badly affected . But that is being overcome now. Sindh government has announced its biggest budget for education and KPK is rivalling punjab now due to peace there .

Despite our lower literacy than both India and Bangladesh , Pakistan has 7 universities in QS world top rankings and around 16 universities in QS asian top 250 universities . Bangladesh has zero universities in any ranking despite having a better literacy rate . NUST , GIK , Quaid e azam , PIES , agha khan , Punjab university ,LUMS ,IBA are ranked in top universities of the world which has been possible despite having lower literacy rate . India and Pakistan are the only two nations to have great universities from south asia . No other country from South asia including srilanka(which has a literacy rate of 90 %) has a single university in any ranking . Nor do they have any university than can rival any in Pakistan .

I am content with India getting ahead in some barometers because Pakistan was ahead for more many decades and is still ahead in alot of indices . One decade Pakistan is ahead in another India will be . Its a continuous cycle . Every dog has his day .

As for life expectancy there hardly is any difference . You will cite the websites where India is even slightly ahead . If anything i think no city in South asia rivals Islamabad for the quality of life it offers for its citizens .

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## Nilgiri

Khan_21 said:


> What is the drop out rate in India in places where there is insurgency? Probably low and compared to national average lower than that .Lets see what is the literacy rate for north -east India and their education rate compared to rest of India?



Literacy rate in North East is actually quite good and above the average of rest of India overall. I believe Assam is only slightly below the Indian average (75%)....and places like Mizoram and Tripura have around 90% literacy rates. These figures are from 5 years back from the 2011 census. Their education parameters would be similar in trend too, since literacy rate doesn't just come out of nowhere.



Khan_21 said:


> Schools got destroyed and people stopped sending their kids to school . Do you know how much improvement their has been in KPK alone in 3 years because of relative peace ? . Its now about to rival punjab for literacy rate . Places where there is insurgency , education , health and daily life gets badly affected . But that is being overcome now. Sindh government has announced its biggest budget for education and KPK is rivalling punjab now due to peace there .



I'm talking about literacy/education trends in Pakistan well before the insurgency/WoT as well. They were not good then either so I dont think we can put it down to insurgency 100%.

Anyways, it is better explained by looking at the population spread in Pakistan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_units_of_Pakistan

Some 75% or so of Pakistan lives in two provinces: Punjab and Sindh....which were outside the main insurgency hit areas. So if we assume say the high school completion rate in the remaining 25% of Pakistan (Baluchistan + North West) was as low as 25% for arguments sake. That means they contribute 0.25*0.25 to the total overall ratio = 0.0625. Subtract this from total overall ratio of 0.5 to get 0.4375. Means Punjab and Sindh effective have a completion rate of 0.4375/0.75 = 0.583...around 58.3%.

Basically what that is showing is there is only so much the rest of Pakistan outside of the two heavyweights can influence the overall numbers of any development parameter. The overall Pakistani number is always going to be very close to the overall Punjab + Sindh number.....be it education, health, poverty, income by the virtue of the 75% presence of Punjab + Sindh in the Pakistan population profile.

The remaining 25%, no matter how bad their conditions are, will not pull down the average by a huge amount....because their weight is only 25% of the total.

Thats also why KPK improving literacy rate/education (compared to before) will not immensely improve Pakistan's overall literacy rate and education, that change has to come inside Punjab and Sindh. That is where the bureaucratic reform will need to be pushed through to improve education.



Khan_21 said:


> Despite our lower literacy than both India and Bangladesh , Pakistan has 7 universities in QS world top rankings and around 16 universities in QS asian top 250 universities . Bangladesh has zero universities in any ranking despite having a better literacy rate .



Universities/colleges are for more niche higher end jobs. What is the tertiary intake of total cohort for these three? Lets look at the UNESCO data:






About 10% for Pakistan, 13% for Bangladesh and 24% for India.

That means the very large majorities don't enter tertiary education at all and discussing the university rankings (which is the cream of the crop of tertiary sector which is a minority to begin with) only mean something for the highest elite which are a very small fraction of the population (and who are often susceptible to leaving the country afterwards anyway).

So the non-tertiary enrolled bulk are the people that then have to rely on what they acquired before (mostly up to high school in India....not the case for Pakistan where only 50% make it past lower secondary). These are the people that will be looking for the bulk of the jobs in manufacturing (or end up getting stuck in menial jobs, agriculture and informal economy) and thus they need to have the skills to do that from high school so they can be trainable in whatever apprenticing, skill workshop, training program etc efficiently. Thats where in the case of India, the Industrial Training institutes are being pushed in a big way now: 

http://www.hindustantimes.com/educa...zzying-pace/story-7ZHcrnddB47mqiAZRUovYO.html

But I do not see such a push in Pakistan (maybe you can correct me) and the quality of the stock would be lacking to begin with anyway since Pakistan has yet to get its secondary school quality and quantity into some semblance of order overall.

This is actually going to be the major obstacle for CPEC economic transfer (capacity into production which is very reliant on human capital quality) down the road



Khan_21 said:


> I am content with India getting ahead in some barometers because Pakistan was ahead for more many decades and is still ahead in alot of indices . One decade Pakistan is ahead in another India will be . Its a continuous cycle . Every dog has his day .



Its not going to be a cycle for India but a continued increase. Onus is on Pakistan to catch up in education....you can look up how China did it (the path India is following now)....but it needs to be done.

Capacity in human capital is built and is not so easily lost. Countries are more like large loco diesel engines than a small micro car gasoline one, they have a large inertia in both stagnation/decline and upswing. The larger they are, the larger the effect.


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## AsianLion



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## MultaniGuy

From Chinese perspective:
Get access to oil rich middle eastern countries
by-pass malacca straits

From Pakistani perspective:
China helps industrialize Pakistan
China builds Pakistan

So both sides benefits

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