HannibalBarca
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The most important condition for HTS loss of "power" is pushing for TR PR, whatever internally or externally...These massive protest also strenghten PR of turkish involmet and its position on idleb in this crisis.
The most important condition for HTS loss of "power" is pushing for TR PR, whatever internally or externally...
So as long as TR keep a strong stance against ASSad/RU/IR when it comes to Idlib/Afrin/Azaz/Albab etc...Then she will strengthen on the ground. And therefore be able to bargain against HTS to lay off territories and keep attracting more Armed groups in the FSA circle.
Time is also TR ally...Something RU/.ASSad/IR don't have the luxury... Time=Higher TR representation=Less Terro Excuse by RU/ASSad/IR= Reshuffle of power Influence/Grip of RU and IR toward ASSad...
RU is already criticized by the hardliners in SAA army and Iranian Jihadist group by being an obstacle of Idlib op, because of it's relation with TR... So Time will increase such frustration... and will propagate that frustration to the more "Moderate" Pro-ASSad/RU/IR supporter in Syria...
That will push IR to be more influential...Something RU doesn't want...
So either RU step up and become more hardcore toward TR, to regain more influence or She decide to change sides or at least be less clement toward ASSad wishes...
It Depends who is at the Offensive...What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?
What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?
What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?
so i have the feeling TR is actually really determined to attack if regime assaults.
from week ago,
in meantime Turkey sent reinforments, reinforced their posts, opened weapons pipeline to rebels, diplomaticly stand its ground, aall of which colaborated these reports.
Also depends if regime and allies target TSK observation postst, that would be a mistake. TSK will not let that pass w/o answer. Tursk bombed TAl Rifat yesterday with Artillery after regime and SDF lunched few mortars towards Afrin region.
new TSK convoy entered at dawn
Convoy included around 50 vehicles in total. 2nd part was deployed in TSK Observation Post S. of JisrShoghur. It means Turkey reinforced (w/ tanks) past days the 3 Obs. Posts in areas where Regime ground assault was expected
so i have the feeling TR is actually really determined to attack if regime assaults.
we should have the airforce make huge preps for if they attack us. like a already locations map of their armored bulk. Maybe thats the reason of why we have meeting in sochi coming. to delay or to let knowFirst is detterence. TSK set up their posts on the edges of deescalations zones and in areas from where regime would most likely attack as a obstacles, or a trip -wires as you like.
So, for regime to mount the attack on these areas they need to go thru TSK posts. Target them, put preassure on TSK to withdrrawn for these positions. And as we see TSK have no intention of reatriting, they are infact reinforcing those lines. TSK will not act first, they will I think wait for regime to make a mistake and target TSK directly... which will give Turkey causus beli, everyright under any international law, to respond.. Turkey doesnt want to be percivied as a agresssor, or such.. Even these diplomatic effeorts are part of this strategy.( Must say this Teheran summit, Erdogan was fucking briliant, while being respectful on surfice, calling putin his friend and Rouhani his brother, then in the end he recites a poem of famous iranian poet, basicly calling both of them, their actions, Inhumane. And that Assad comment, how Turkey will not abandon Idlib to the mercy of Assad - Putin face experssion was gold) Only blame for any escalation on international stage will land on regime and russians/iranians. Turkey is playing this very smart. At least this is how I see it. I mean, Im not all knowing and shit. Just mine assesment.
we should have the airforce make huge preps for if they attack us. like a already locations map of their armored bulk. Maybe thats the reason of why we have meeting in sochi coming. to delay or to let know