Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[HannibalBarca]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040612255828721664

 

[rajvoSa]

These massive protest also strenghten PR of turkish involmet and its position on idleb in this crisis.

 

[HannibalBarca]

These massive protest also strenghten PR of turkish involmet and its position on idleb in this crisis.

The most important condition for HTS loss of "power" is pushing for TR PR, whatever internally or externally...
So as long as TR keep a strong stance against ASSad/RU/IR when it comes to Idlib/Afrin/Azaz/Albab etc...Then she will strengthen on the ground. And therefore be able to bargain against HTS to lay off territories and keep attracting more Armed groups in the FSA circle.

Time is also TR ally...Something RU/.ASSad/IR don't have the luxury... Time=Higher TR representation=Less Terro Excuse by RU/ASSad/IR= Reshuffle of power Influence/Grip of RU and IR toward ASSad...

RU is already criticized by the hardliners in SAA army and Iranian Jihadist group by being an obstacle of Idlib op, because of it's relation with TR... So Time will increase such frustration... and will propagate that frustration to the more "Moderate" Pro-ASSad/RU/IR supporter in Syria...

That will push IR to be more influential...Something RU doesn't want...
So either RU step up and become more hardcore toward TR, to regain more influence or She decide to change sides or at least be less clement toward ASSad wishes...

 

[rajvoSa]

Leaks: Voice Recording reveals the fear of the Syrian regime forces of Idlib

A voice recording of a conversation between two officers of the Syrian regime's army revealed the fear of the Arm'a troops from entering the battle of Idlib and their unwillingness to fight, calling for the "members of reconciliation factions" in the forefront in order to get rid of them and use them in the incursions.

"The storming of the mountain (the mountain of Kurds in the northern Lattakia countryside) is a great difficulty because the troops are afraid of falling into the hands of the fighters of the revolutionary factions," one of the officers said in the recording. "They could not control the people of the region because of their fear of the operation".

He stressed that all officers call for the inclusion of the elements of "reconciliation factions" who signed agreements with the regime and other provinces recruited members should be in the forefront and the troops of the Fourth Division to be behind them.

The regime's army is resorting to this step because of the fear of its troops from breaking into the region and their lack of confidence in the elements of "reconciliation factions" and their desire to get rid of them.

http://nedaa-sy.com/en/news/8351

The Syrian regime arrests new leaders of the "reconciliations" factions in Daraa

http://nedaa-sy.com/en/news/8361

The most important condition for HTS loss of "power" is pushing for TR PR, whatever internally or externally...
So as long as TR keep a strong stance against ASSad/RU/IR when it comes to Idlib/Afrin/Azaz/Albab etc...Then she will strengthen on the ground. And therefore be able to bargain against HTS to lay off territories and keep attracting more Armed groups in the FSA circle.

Time is also TR ally...Something RU/.ASSad/IR don't have the luxury... Time=Higher TR representation=Less Terro Excuse by RU/ASSad/IR= Reshuffle of power Influence/Grip of RU and IR toward ASSad...

RU is already criticized by the hardliners in SAA army and Iranian Jihadist group by being an obstacle of Idlib op, because of it's relation with TR... So Time will increase such frustration... and will propagate that frustration to the more "Moderate" Pro-ASSad/RU/IR supporter in Syria...

That will push IR to be more influential...Something RU doesn't want...
So either RU step up and become more hardcore toward TR, to regain more influence or She decide to change sides or at least be less clement toward ASSad wishes...

Russia will not change sides. Believe me. Their involment with Turkey was to use the US-Trukey rift and make a small crack inside a NATO. Erdogan is many things but stupid isnt one of them, as someone said ) I think Burak Kadercan), He would make Machiaaveli cry. Russians made a mistake thinking they are using Turkey, which is true, but Tuirkey was also using them.. russians miscalculated I think turkish comitments for defending its zone of influence. Also, if we knoe history, Turkey doesnt really ambandon the areas where they spilled blod easily. Northern Cyprus is still Nothern Cyprus.

Turkish-FSA controled Al Bab

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040666255827587072

 

[CAN_TR]

FETÖcü cikdi! birisi 155 arasin. burda kürtaj mürtaj yok.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040701560739819523

 

[rajvoSa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040651012489588737

 

[Vergennes]

What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?

 

[HannibalBarca]

What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?

It Depends who is at the Offensive...
If it's a solo ASSad Run, Then you will get full coverage.
If you have explicit RU involvement, then it's basic indirect support (Rockets/Ammunitions etc...).

But since TR said to protect at all cost Idlib, Then RU involvement is not sure.
Both don't want to go against each others... So If ASSad nonetheless decide to attack, Then TR and RU will mostly stay with basic support... without being officially "involved".

 

[rajvoSa]

Turkey Reinforces Its Army in Syria Before Erdogan Meets Putin

Turkey is sending additional troops, tanks and howitzers into Syria to boost its forces on the ground before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Russian President Vladimir Putin, who’s backing an operation that could send hundreds of thousands of refugees into Turkey.

The reinforcements came as Turkey’s top general, Yasar Guler, inspected troop positions at the border provinces of Hatay and Gaziantep on Friday, according to AHaber television. Turkey has been massing troops in Syria’s Idlib since Putin rejected Erdogan’s call for a cease-fire during a summit meeting in Tehran last week.

The Turkish and Russian leaders have deepened their friendship over the past two years, but remain at odds over the war in Syria, where Russia has backed President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey supports some Sunni rebel groups that have sought to overthrow him. Putin and Erdogan are expected to meet in Sochi again on Monday.

In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week, Erdogan suggested that Turkey, along with the fighters it has backed in Syria, could play a crucial role in eliminating the threat from al-Qaeda-affiliated militants in Idlib, one of the last territories still held by Islamists rebelling against Assad. Backed by Moscow and Tehran, Assad is preparing a battle to seize control of Idlib, cementing victory after a seven-year civil war in which more than half a million people have been killed.


Moderate Rebels
United Nations estimates there are 10,000 fighters in Idlib with links to al-Qaeda. Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani have insisted that the war must go on until they are crushed.

The U.S. has backed Kurdish fighters from the YPG, who now control most of Syria’s northeast. That’s put the U.S. into conflict with Turkey because the Syrian Kurds are linked to a separatist group called the PKK, which both Turkey and the U.S. consider a terrorist organization. Assad has not launched an assault to recapture territory held by the Kurds.

love how they subtly insetered so called moderate rebels refering to turkish rebel allies. But when talking about YPG, fucking offshoot of internationaly recognized terror org for 30 years resonsible for killing more then 30 thousand ppl, there no similiar description, rearly even use YPG term instead refer to them simply as The Kurds...
And there no way in hell that Al Qaida has 10k figters in Idleb, Huras al Din maybe has 1k maximum if even that much. ANd HTS isnt part of AQ for some time now.hell, Huras Al Din accuse them of assqasaniting their leaders not so long ago.

 

[Deliorman]

What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?

Most probably to just do nothing and watch while Erdo is barking about the evil Assad and his backers from the sidelines and opening the gates for another million rats from Syria.

 

[rajvoSa]

What can be expected from the Turkish army in case of an offensive ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1038452444311814146

from week ago,
in meantime Turkey sent reinforments, reinforced their posts, opened weapons pipeline to rebels, diplomaticly stand its ground, aall of which colaborated these reports.
Also depends if regime and allies target TSK observation postst, that would be a mistake. TSK will not let that pass w/o answer. Tursk bombed TAl Rifat yesterday with Artillery after regime and SDF lunched few mortars towards Afrin region.

new TSK convoy entered at dawn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040864992701177856

Convoy included around 50 vehicles in total. 2nd part was deployed in TSK Observation Post S. of JisrShoghur. It means Turkey reinforced (w/ tanks) past days the 3 Obs. Posts in areas where Regime ground assault was expected

 

[Nurhak40]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1038452444311814146

from week ago,
in meantime Turkey sent reinforments, reinforced their posts, opened weapons pipeline to rebels, diplomaticly stand its ground, aall of which colaborated these reports.
Also depends if regime and allies target TSK observation postst, that would be a mistake. TSK will not let that pass w/o answer. Tursk bombed TAl Rifat yesterday with Artillery after regime and SDF lunched few mortars towards Afrin region.

new TSK convoy entered at dawn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1040864992701177856

Convoy included around 50 vehicles in total. 2nd part was deployed in TSK Observation Post S. of JisrShoghur. It means Turkey reinforced (w/ tanks) past days the 3 Obs. Posts in areas where Regime ground assault was expected

so i have the feeling TR is actually really determined to attack if regime assaults.

 

[rajvoSa]

so i have the feeling TR is actually really determined to attack if regime assaults.

First is detterence. TSK set up their posts on the edges of deescalations zones and in areas from where regime would most likely attack as a obstacles, or a trip -wires as you like.

So, for regime to mount the attack on these areas they need to go thru TSK posts. Target them, put preassure on TSK to withdrrawn for these positions. And as we see TSK have no intention of reatriting, they are infact reinforcing those lines. TSK will not act first, they will I think wait for regime to make a mistake and target TSK directly... which will give Turkey causus beli, everyright under any international law, to respond.. Turkey doesnt want to be percivied as a agresssor, or such.. Even these diplomatic effeorts are part of this strategy.( Must say this Teheran summit, Erdogan was fucking briliant, while being respectful on surfice, calling putin his friend and Rouhani his brother, then in the end he recites a poem of famous iranian poet, basicly calling both of them, their actions, Inhumane. And that Assad comment, how Turkey will not abandon Idlib to the mercy of Assad - Putin face experssion was gold) Only blame for any escalation on international stage will land on regime and russians/iranians. Turkey is playing this very smart. At least this is how I see it. I mean, Im not all knowing and shit. Just mine assesment.

I hope turkish deterence will be enough to stop this mass sloughter. So the escaaltion can be avoided.

 

[Nurhak40]

First is detterence. TSK set up their posts on the edges of deescalations zones and in areas from where regime would most likely attack as a obstacles, or a trip -wires as you like.

So, for regime to mount the attack on these areas they need to go thru TSK posts. Target them, put preassure on TSK to withdrrawn for these positions. And as we see TSK have no intention of reatriting, they are infact reinforcing those lines. TSK will not act first, they will I think wait for regime to make a mistake and target TSK directly... which will give Turkey causus beli, everyright under any international law, to respond.. Turkey doesnt want to be percivied as a agresssor, or such.. Even these diplomatic effeorts are part of this strategy.( Must say this Teheran summit, Erdogan was fucking briliant, while being respectful on surfice, calling putin his friend and Rouhani his brother, then in the end he recites a poem of famous iranian poet, basicly calling both of them, their actions, Inhumane. And that Assad comment, how Turkey will not abandon Idlib to the mercy of Assad - Putin face experssion was gold) Only blame for any escalation on international stage will land on regime and russians/iranians. Turkey is playing this very smart. At least this is how I see it. I mean, Im not all knowing and shit. Just mine assesment.

we should have the airforce make huge preps for if they attack us. like a already locations map of their armored bulk. Maybe thats the reason of why we have meeting in sochi coming. to delay or to let know

 

[rajvoSa]

we should have the airforce make huge preps for if they attack us. like a already locations map of their armored bulk. Maybe thats the reason of why we have meeting in sochi coming. to delay or to let know

Dont worry. Im sure such preps and plans are ready. Turkish drones were scouting Aleppo frontlines, just yesterday I caugt one on that app circling around Tal Rifat and suroandings. And units in those obs point warent exactly observing birds for months ... and with recent MIT operations, one can conclude that Turkey has inteligence assets deep inside regime teritory..