IDF pulls its punches after Hizbullah retaliation for airstrike

[Saifullah Sani]

An injured Israeli soldier receives medical treatment after the Hizbullah missile attack. Source: PA Photos

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out only a limited response to a Hizbullah missile attack that killed two of its soldiers on 28 January, thereby preventing the situation from turning into a dangerous cycle of retaliatory violence.

Hizbullah's attack targeted unarmoured IDF vehicles travelling along a civilian road 2 km from the Lebanese border and was reportedly carried out with several 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles.

Two missiles hit and destroyed IDF Isuzu D-Max pickup trucks and a third strayed off course and hit a house in the border town of Ghajar, according to a security source based in southern Lebanon. Seven Israeli soldiers were injured in addition to the two who were killed.

Hizbullah said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed six of its operatives and an Iranian general inside Syria on 18 January.

Israel has not officially confirmed it was responsible for the airstrike, but Israeli officials speaking off the record have said it targeted a group involved in planning attacks on Israeli targets on the Golan Heights.

The IDF's initial response to the 28 January missile attack was limited to firing 16 155 mm artillery shells and four mortar rounds into Lebanon, according to the security source. One of the rounds unintentionally killed a Spanish soldier serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in an incident the IDF has said it will investigate.

COMMENT
The Hizbullah attack was painful for Israeli society, which is sensitive to the loss of its soldiers' lives. However, the IDF is interpreting the group's decision to launch a localised, precision strike on a military target as a signal that Hizbullah is keen to avoid an escalation that could lead to a major Israeli attack on its home territory in southern Lebanon.

At the same time IDF officials say more strikes will follow if Hizbullah continues to build up its presence on the Syrian side of the Golan ceasefire line with Iranian assistance. From the IDF's point of view, this process is gradually dissolving the distinction between the Syrian and Lebanese borders, turning them into a single front against Israel.

However, any such operations will be carried out only after carefully weighing their benefits against the risk of breaking Hizbullah's 'pain threshold' and provoking retaliation. If these evaluations lead the defence establishment to conclude the strategic benefits outweigh the risks, and defence officials then convince the Cabinet, pre-emptive strikes with significant risks of an escalation will be approved and carried out.

The ultimate Israeli aim will remain to reduce the threat from Hizbullah while avoiding a full-scale confrontation that could see thousands of rockets raining down on Israeli territory on a daily basis.

The current low-level war consequently looks set to continue for the foreseeable future, or until one side makes a miscalculation that forces the other to escalate the situation.

IDF pulls its punches after Hizbullah retaliation for airstrike - IHS Jane's 360