What year's equivalent of China is India now?

[renhai]

There is an American academic study out there that uses satellite imagery to see if GDP growth rates reported by governments are correct. Most totalitarian regimes report 20 to 30 percent higher growth rates. The discrepancy was even higher in Chinas case. They stopped actual growth ( except background growth linked to rest of world ) around 2017. The CCP is lying. Google it if you want to check.

Please don't bring Indian jokes to our modern civilized world. thank you.

 

[tower9]

It pains me to agree with you even partially but I must partially but and I will not agree wholly, at least not right now. Pakistan had and still has some major pluses. You see: Pakistan is a much more homogeneous State. Less frictions due to much of the population shares the same religion and culture. AND Pakistan, despite all bad leaders, was ahead of India into the 1980s when India after 1947 had more advantages. Heck, even the viability of Pakistan was in question around 1947.

Pakistanis need to realize a few over-arching principles: That the beggars can't be chooses. That the global wealth is still with the West and its allies. That instability is worse than corruption. That economic growth leads to geopolitical options. That the entire political class of Pakistan--inclusive of Imran Khan his party--is borne from the same soil of good and bad.
The way forward for Pakistan is stability. I don't care if even the benighted General Zia ul Haq is back to power for the next 10 years, it's the political stability that's needed first and foremost.

Well I think homogeneity is overrated. North Korea is the most homogenous country in the world and it is an isolated basket case. I do agree that increased diversity of ethnic groups and religions increase social friction but I think if India manages to make doing business easier in the country, invest in infrastructure and create a dynamic environment for investment and commerce which leverages its massive population, it will easily become one of the worlds great economic engines.

 

[renhai]

2. Yes, you do invest in my country and thanks for that but not to the extent and duration of what westerners have invested in your country.

I admit that the West invests more in China than the West + China invests in Pakistan. But Pakistan has not been sanctioned and blockaded by the West for decades like China. isn't it?

You can accept the western blockade and sanctions for 70 years. And then invest in you for 30 years?

That's what I said... Watching too much western news affects IQ.

 

[Indos]

Labor productivity and better governance I think that makes China better than India and why FDI comes massively to China than India despite both have the same huge market. Japanese, Hongkong, and Taiwanese who have already developed earlier than Chinese will also likely prefer China over India for investment due to closer region

India if I am not mistaken also having unstable domestic politics as well with some of their leaders get shot and died. Indira Gandi and Rajif Gandi for example get shot.

In my opinion, better comparing between ASEAN and India

 

[Mista]

 

[etylo]

Two things worked for China:
1. One child policy for 38 years ensured that no poor is even allowed to be born.
2. Western companies putting money and factories in China.

Now the western companies will be putting money in India. And unlike China, India does not even need 1 child policy as their fertility rate has already dropped to 2.1. India will catch up with China sooner than later.

The one child policy mainly applied to the relatively well off urban Han Chinese, never applied to minorities and are not really strictly enforced on poor rural Han Chinese, they were allowed to have 2 or 3 children. This show how ignorant you foreigners about China, thinking that the "evil commies" are just like Nazi Germans trying to cleanse out the bottom population of China.

 

[MH.Yang]

Two things worked for China:
1. One child policy for 38 years ensured that no poor is even allowed to be born.
2. Western companies putting money and factories in China.

Now the western companies will be putting money in India. And unlike China, India does not even need 1 child policy as their fertility rate has already dropped to 2.1. India will catch up with China sooner than later.

Contrary to what you might imagine, the "one-child policy" is more strictly enforced among urban residents, employees of state-owned enterprises and government officials. However, it has not been well implemented in poor rural areas. If you Google Xi Jinping and other senior CCP officials, you will find that they all have only one child.

The reasons for this are:

1. The CCP's implementation of the "one-child policy" is actually preparing for the "reform of state-owned enterprises".
The CCP does not intend to give up socialism, so they are prepared to retain and repair state-owned enterprises as the main pillar of the economy. The reform of state-owned enterprises requires large-scale layoffs (45 million employees were dismissed in the first three years of the reform period of state-owned enterprises). If these employees need to raise many children, it will be difficult for the CCP to dismiss them without causing confusion.
Therefore, the CCP began to implement the "one-child policy" in 1979, and began the "state-owned enterprise reform" 20 years later. Therefore, urban residents, employees of state-owned enterprises and government officials are the focus groups of the "one-child policy".

2. In the 1980s and 1990s, China's rural productivity fell behind. Farmers need a sufficient number of people to carry out agricultural production. Moreover, cities also need a sufficient number of migrant workers. Therefore, there is no urgent need for the "one-child policy" in rural areas.

3. The CCP has strong control and organizational capacity over cities and state-owned enterprises, and it can ensure that the "one-child policy" is strictly implemented. If officials or employees violate the policy, they will be dismissed and fined soon.
The villagers in rural areas are closely related, and they help each other escape the policy. For example, village party committee officials notified pregnant women to hide in advance. For example, the officials of the village party committee asked the whole village to share the fines equally, and then returned the collected fines to the villagers in other names. So now, only child families are rarely seen in rural areas of China.

 

[Beidou2020]

GDP wise, somewhere in the 1990’s. Mentality wise, somewhere around 2,500 years ago. Indians will never get rid of their subservient mentality towards whites. Born with it I’m afraid.

 

[FuturePAF]

Even today Chinese are still superior to the Indians.

This is the reason why Elon Musk fired the India CEO of Twitter and continues to make Teslas in China and not in India.



This is Indians day dreaming.

Americans are not fools to invest in a shithole country like India. They are much smarter.

America is on shoring as much as possible, those jobs where the labor costs are some what comparable if you take into account transportation costs from Asia as well as distance to locations in the US.

It’s about politics now, as Americans can’t bear another generation of allowing offshoring to keep growing.

More investment will go to India but not on the scale that has been done with China, and this is also partially due to the quality of the infrastructure in China as well as how well trained the Chinese technical labor force is (according to Bill Gates).

Pakistan for it’s part, needs stability and to connect to Central Asia to open up a lot of possibilities for international investors looking to get into that part of the world. Pakistan also can attract a lot of investment if it just becomes inefficient in how it uses its own resources like water. Investment in agriculture by Arab nations looking for food stability on their door step, mining resources for investors looking for raw materials (where Pakistan can integrate into the value chain of China and the west), etc. a lot of possibilities if Pakistan gets its own house in order.

Raising tax revenue through higher property taxes will put the burden on those that can most afford it, but in the long run these people are the ones that will benefit most from a growing economy.

The ending of the Afghan wars allows Pakistan to focus its largest challenge, economics. Now it’s up to the leadership in Pakistan to reorient society to that primary objective, and not get distracted as much as possible.

Pakistan will have to get back on track if it doesn’t want to get further behind India. It has the resources, bow just needs the management and disciple to maintain it for decades to be back on par (GDP per capita).

 

[my2cents]

Two things worked for China:
1. One child policy for 38 years ensured that no poor is even allowed to be born.
2. Western companies putting money and factories in China.

Now the western companies will be putting money in India. And unlike China, India does not even need 1 child policy as their fertility rate has already dropped to 2.1. India will catch up with China sooner than later.

One child means, better educated kid, healthy and will inherit both Mom and Dad wealth. In 35 years China has stopped 700 million kids to be born and it had very positive impact on their lives. Also more women participate in work force and hence more income for the family.

 

[Meengla]

America is on shoring as much as possible, those jobs where the labor costs are some what comparable if you take into account transportation costs from Asia as well as distance to locations in the US.

It’s about politics now, as Americans can’t bear another generation of allowing offshoring to keep growing.

More investment will go to India but not on the scale that has been done with China, and this is also partially due to the quality of the infrastructure in China as well as how well trained the Chinese technical labor force is (according to Bill Gates).

Pakistan for it’s part, needs stability and to connect to Central Asia to open up a lot of possibilities for international investors looking to get into that part of the world. Pakistan also can attract a lot of investment if it just becomes inefficient in how it uses its own resources like water. Investment in agriculture by Arab nations looking for food stability in their door step, mining resources for investors looking for raw materials (where Pakistan can interferes into the value chain of China or the west), etc. a lot of possibilities if Pakistan gets its own house in order.

Raising tax revenue through higher property taxes will put the burden on those that can most afford it, but in the long run these people are the ones that will benefit most from a growing economy.

The ending of the Afghan wars allows Pakistan to focus its largest challenge, economics. Now it’s up to the leadership in Pakistan to reorient society to that primary objective, and not get distracted as much as possible.

Pakistan will have to get back on track if it doesn’t want to get further behind India. It has the resources, bow just needs the management and disciple to maintain it for decades to be back on par (GDP per capita).

Off-shoring is too well entrenched. Yes, there are attempts to bring some things back to America but I believe, just like water flows downhill, manufacturing and even high-end tech jobs will continue to flow downhill: Wherever the 'labor' is cheaper even if (reasonably) subpar.

About Pakistan's prospects--I don't agree (yet!) with the pessimistic outcomes made by our friend @tower9 . He is absolutely well meaning for Pakistan. But I think a new--a truly new--world order is being made. The long anticipated dominance/revival of larger Eurasia --which had been the dominant region in humanity throughout history--is happening. Vast lands with huge populations and natural resources. And Pakistan is geopolitically well placed to reap the benefits in such a revival. There is a reason Indians salivate over the Pakistani part of Kashmir. But for Pakistan, sane leadership is needed. And I'd welcome anyone who provides clean-governance, stability, futuristic policies. There will always be some 'corruption', as it is common in all 3rd world countries. But the worse would be political instability. So no more sloganeering. No more grandiose 'visions'. Stability, relatively efficient governance. Like climbing a tough, high mountain, one step at a time but always going up...

 

[FuturePAF]

Off-shoring is too well entrenched. Yes, there are attempts to bring some things back to America but I believe, just like water flows downhill, manufacturing and even high-end tech jobs will continue to flow downhill: Wherever the 'labor' is cheaper even if (reasonably) subpar.

About Pakistan's prospects--I don't agree (yet!) with the pessimistic outcomes made by our friend @tower9 . He is absolutely well meaning for Pakistan. But I think a new--a truly new--world order is being made. The long anticipated dominance/revival of larger Eurasia --which had been the dominant region in humanity throughout history--is happening. Vast lands with huge populations and natural resources. And Pakistan is geopolitically well placed to reap the benefits in such a revival. There is a reason Indians salivate over the Pakistani part of Kashmir. But for Pakistan, sane leadership is needed. And I'd welcome anyone who provides clean-governance, stability, futuristic policies. There will always be some 'corruption', as it is common in all 3rd world countries. But the worse would be political instability. So no more sloganeering. No more grandiose 'visions'. Stability, relatively efficient governance. Like climbing a tough, high mountain, one step at a time but always going up...

Two issues; considering we all know politics are within the frame work allowed, ”they” should be forcing the other parties to reform and ditch their incompetent leaders in favor of a new generation of competent leaders, outside of the families that have made these parties their play things, and in turn the governance of the areas they dominate.

If the election commission is “disqualifing” IK, the silver lining will be it will force PTI to elevate new, younger leaders, and force them to show their capabilities, while IK is still around. Allowing him to to weed out the incompetent ones, and leave us with a hopefully at least a dozen in an executive committee, giving stability when succession happens for at least a generation. If all parties had this change it would shift the parties to one that’s compete on competence and a realistic platform.

Secondly, Pakistan can’t keep saying there is Geopolitical value to its location and not push to see some realization of it. Building qt least the Trans-Afghan rail line ASAP will actualize the beginning of the potential, and show Pakistan and Central Asia can get the Talibs to at least open up this corridor, and there were investors willing to fund it. Once the Talibs see some revenue they will guard it for their own sake, regardless of relations with Pakistan short of full blown war.

 

[kankan326]

Japan was way ahead of China in the 80s, what about now? Countries change. Environments change. China is facing unprecedented challenges which will slow it down. Indias system is also adapting and changing. China will likely maintain its lead but the gap will be narrowed.

Every country has its development ceiling. India's development ceiling is not high unfortunately. China is the world factory and world consumption power is relatively stable. India's further development is equal to grabbing pie from China. Which is very tough task for India. West investment is not so important for a country's substantial progress. It's double blades sword. It may help a country and it may become an obstacle for domestic industry progress. Actually west investment was never a key reason for China's success.

 

[FuturePAF]

In 2007, China's GDP was 3.55 trillion US dollars. It is similar to India's GDP(2.9 trillion) in 2021.

However, this does not mean that 2021India has reached the level of 2007China. Because the value of $3 trillion in 2007 is significantly higher than that of $3 trillion in 2021.

I suggest this comparison. In 2021, the global GDP will be 96.1 trillion US dollars. India accounted for 3%. In 1997, the global GDP was 31.62 trillion US dollars. China's GDP is 961.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 3%. So India in 2021 should be equal to China in 1997.

The real economic gap between China and India should be 24 years.

However, from 1990s to 2011, China always maintained an economic growth rate of 10 +%. And India cannot achieve our speed. So if India wants to reach the level of 2021China, it will take far more than 24 years.

India’s demographics in the key metric of working age population growth will go negative in 24 years. If India’s demographic dividend is squandered or not fully utilized in that time, they won’t get another similar chance at fast growth. The size of India’s working age population also hides that the percentage of women working as a percentage of total women is low even compared to most neighboring countries, much less China. So in actuality the number of workers in China will still be higher than india up until 2050, when India’s demographic dividend runs out.

On a side note, if Pakistan can get its act together over the next 10 years, it can help mitigate the gap with India in the following chart, considering China and Pakistan border each other.

It would be similar to Mexico’s labor force effects on the US economy.

Asia - Ageing Tigers, Hidden Dragons.-Our Insights-Chan & Jamison LLP | Deloitte Legal Hongkong

Asia as we know it will rapidly change shape over the coming decade, with demographics set to drive huge changes in growth momentum in our region. Asia’s third wave of growth is set to begin, stirring hidden dragons, while ageing Tigers must face the challenges and opportunities of an older...

www.deloittelegal.com.hk

 

[Libexer]

China expert Pascal Coppens who has lived in china for 20 years visited India to answer this very question.

His observation is that in social index, India is 30 Years behind. In roads and Infra, India is 20 years behind. In Entrepreneurship and Business, India is 10 years behind. In digital and new economy adaption India was ahead of Europe and was at par with China.