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UAE, India and the Rafale issue

Well it may be 'their' line but the Rafale is not totally 'their' fighter considering the amount of money the GOF has spend on the project.

The specifications, a huge part of R&D and technologies/studies comes from French DGA/ONERA and others.

So I doubt very much that DA is as free to sell Rafale as you suggest.

I may be wrong though.

But with 'their' line they can produce and sell Falcons to whoever they want.

The French do not part with some technologies, and we are fine by that. For example, nobody is expecting all of the source codes for the radar and EW suite. DGA protects such technologies. But Dassault and co are willing to transfer 100% of the production techniques for airframe and engine, that's where most of the spares are needed. Everything else is mainly electronics which can be sourced from anywhere.

The Indian line will have Dassault investment also, it's an Indo-French line. The French govt will see more benefit if they get more business, whether it happens in France or India. It's all controlled by the stock market anyway. More revenue for Dassault would mean an upward tick in share prices, and that's what shareholders are concerned about. That's how Airbus works too. An Indian line selling Rafale's spares would mean someone in France is making money, also more than if the business was conducted in France because the Indian line will be more profitable.

You should also look at what's in store for the future. French forces want only 6 Rafales every year until 2032. So allowing Dassault to outsource will allow the French govt to remove a lot of stress from the national budget. Picdel says Dassault can even make 45 Rafales a year in India. Everybody is making money in this system, and French labour is not wasted, nor is India taking away French jobs, while making Dassault very competitive internationally because they will be making Rafales in Indian rupees, which is quite low in exchange value.

Basically, if something can be made cheaper in India, they will move its production to India, stuff that's cheaper in France, will stay in France. This will allow Dassault to leverage the advantages of both countries.

Plus, long term, Dassault with Reliance will be able to get first preference in major future deals for the IAF and IN, like how BAE gets so many American deals, like the F-35's EW suite. It's a very symbiotic relationship.

You mean how MMRCA started out with 126 and ended up at 36? Yeah right!

So you still have no thinking cap on. That tin foil cap has done wonders to your brain.

36 flyaway from France, and the link I gave clearly said they are building a production line in India. Don't cough up a furball when you read the actual news in print.

Your M2K's are getting upgraded to what our M2K-9's were more than a decade ago. That is actually a slap on your face.

Our Rafay's will follow the same route as the M2K-9. So don't worry your pretty little head, we know fully well what to get, unlike you chest thumpers, All hot air and no substance, as usual.

I'll go out on a limb and say that the UAE may get their M2Ks also serviced in India. :D

So if we choose the F-16 for MII, then all of your jets will end up in Indian maintenance centers.

And if the next phase of contracts with the US is signed, I bet even your C-130s, Apaches and Chinooks will be visiting Indian facilities as well.

UAE AF... maintained in India.

UAE will be a major defence trade partner for India, you will start seeing movement on the ground pretty soon, particularly for defensive equipment.

Loki's post above is answer enough.
And, if Dassault is going to get more out of its line than HAL for sure,
it doesn't mean they'll get what they do in France.

For referral, France has the 6th GDP/man hour worldwide at 59.4 whilst
India is ranked below 60 with 3.4.
That means that if Dassault gets 5 times more out of its Indian employees
than the national average, it's still a fourth of what happens in Mérignac!

Sorry for brutally bursting your bubble but it's like that. Tying numbers
in pretty little knots to hold and garnish your assumptions bouquets is
very romantic, granted but industrial reality rarely is and war almost never.

Let's not get "too" mixed up between desires and factories, Tay.

Ain't nothing special there. I'm pretty sure someone with an engineering degree in Dassault is going to be a lot more productive than a basket weaver in the slums of India.

But it would be more helpful if you compare Dassault to individual companies instead, particularly ones like Tata, L&T, Reliance etc.

You forget that if Dassault sets up a factory in India, they will also hire workers with enough knowledge to carry out that job, and we have plenty of those.

It's common sense, stuff gets made cheap in India. The CPFH of a M-2000 in France is $8000. CPFH of the same jet in India is $3000. There, your productivity argument is dead in its tracks. Numbers and figures don't lie.
 
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So you still have no thinking cap on. That tin foil cap has done wonders to your brain.


I'll go out on a limb and say that the UAE may get their M2Ks also serviced in India. :D

So if we choose the F-16 for MII, then all of your jets will end up in Indian maintenance centers.

And if the next phase of contracts with the US is signed, I bet even your C-130s, Apaches and Chinooks will be visiting Indian facilities as well.

UAE AF... maintained in India.

UAE will be a major defence trade partner for India, you will start seeing movement on the ground pretty soon, particularly for defensive equipment.

I can't stop you from dreaming and talking crap. Please keep making a fool of yourself.
 
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First randomradio let me say that I have much respect for you. I've read a lot of stuff from you here and on IDF and basically I can say that usually I agree with most of what you say. But on this topic I diverge strongly.

I have no problem with India wanting a production line for its fighters. We're talking of huge amount of money and India wants to be independent and I respect that as well so a local production line is required okay. But exporting Rafale made in India to other export markets wooatt ? I've read your entire post but I still fail to see what would be the benefit for France in that scenario.

I think you fail to see the French John Doe point of view on many points.

The French do not part with some technologies, and we are fine by that. For example, nobody is expecting all of the source codes for the radar and EW suite. DGA protects such technologies. But Dassault and co are willing to transfer 100% of the production techniques for airframe and engine, that's where most of the spares are needed. Everything else is mainly electronics which can be sourced from anywhere.

Well maybe but this doesn't make the case for Indian exported Rafale.


The Indian line will have Dassault investment also, it's an Indo-French line. The French govt will see more benefit if they get more business, whether it happens in France or India. It's all controlled by the stock market anyway. More revenue for Dassault would mean an upward tick in share prices, and that's what shareholders are concerned about. That's how Airbus works too. An Indian line selling Rafale's spares would mean someone in France is making money, also more than if the business was conducted in France because the Indian line will be more profitable.

This would lead to a bigger margin for DA (= money for the shareholders) but a loss of revenue (production, jobs, working hours) for France as a country. Here the French John Doe won't be happy if he loses his job to make the fat-cats richer. So unless you can prove that a prospect will buy Rafale only if they are produce in India (= a non identified prospect we have now) it is a loss and not a benefit for France.


You should also look at what's in store for the future. French forces want only 6 Rafales every year until 2032. So allowing Dassault to outsource will allow the French govt to remove a lot of stress from the national budget. Picdel says Dassault can even make 45 Rafales a year in India. Everybody is making money in this system, and French labour is not wasted, nor is India taking away French jobs, while making Dassault very competitive internationally because they will be making Rafales in Indian rupees, which is quite low in exchange value..

Hmm I really don't understand your rationale here. What remove stress from French budget is when a foreign customer buy a Rafale made in Merignac so that GoF can delay its own purchase. Outsourcing is once again a loss for France and not a benefit.
 
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First randomradio let me say that I have much respect for you. I've read a lot of stuff from you here and on IDF and basically I can say that usually I agree with most of what you say. But on this topic I diverge strongly.

Thanks. It's nice to be appreciated.

I have no problem with India wanting a production line for its fighters. We're talking of huge amount of money and India wants to be independent and I respect that as well so a local production line is required okay. But exporting Rafale made in India to other export markets wooatt ? I've read your entire post but I still fail to see what would be the benefit for France in that scenario.

I think you fail to see the French John Doe point of view on many points.

It's about costs. The same reason why many American and European companies outsource to India and other emerging markets.

If Dassault takes care of cost of production, it will open up markets it does not have access to yet. For example, Rafale lost to the F15 in Singapore due to cost.

Well maybe but this doesn't make the case for Indian exported Rafale.

Some stuff can come in from France, particularly electronics. Not to mention whatever is cheaper to produce in France, perhaps ejection seats, landing carriage etc.

This would lead to a bigger margin for DA (= money for the shareholders) but a loss of revenue (production, jobs, working hours) for France as a country. Here the French John Doe won't be happy if he loses his job to make the fat-cats richer. So unless you can prove that a prospect will buy Rafale only if they are produce in India (= a non identified prospect we have now) it is a loss and not a benefit for France.

It doesn't. Dassault's primary business is Falcons. With Rafale production in India, Dassault's French team can focus exclusively on selling Falcons globally. And India is also a big market for Falcons. So Dassault will get a bigger advantage in selling Falcons to a growing Indian economy.

Rafale's workforce can be moved to a more expanded Falcon production line in France.

Look at the choices, considering you are in Dassault's shoes. There are countries you have no access to, but India does, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, South America etc. Over the next 10 years, many small countries will want to start coming closer to India for geopolitical reasons. What better way to gain influence in these countries than to start selling Rafales. For the countries in question, they build a partnership with both France and India. So it's good for them too. Dassault could very well have won the Brazilian deal had India been a partner then. Russia wants to use India for the same purpose for FGFA also. That will open up newer markets for Falcons.

This is a long term move. Regardless, military production is something that should not be tied within the prison of shortsighted localized economic benefits. The French population can be greedy about protecting jobs in car production, but when it comes to military production, strategic considerations must outweigh local benefits.

Hmm I really don't understand your rationale here. What remove stress from French budget is when a foreign customer buy a Rafale made in Merignac so that GoF can delay its own purchase.

The French govt is obligated to order 11 Rafales/year from Dassault by contract. But the French want to cut down induction to 6/year in order to reduce the impact of Rafale orders on their budget so they can focus on other technologies also. This is not acceptable to Dassault, of course, their primary drive is profit. So the govt and Dassault need to work out a deal where the remaining 5/year is guaranteed through exports.

So the French govt will be more willing to allow ToT to India to build Dassault's facilities in India.

Outsourcing is once again a loss for France and not a benefit.

Every single American company will disagree. And I have given you some of the strategic gains possible.

Take the example of what Taygibay said, he pointed out that Indian workers are not as productive as the French. But there is no way he will be able to explain why a Mirage-2000 costs 8000 euros(not $) to fly in France versus $3000 in India. This is also not accounting for the fact that we are talking about the "not-as-productive-as-Dassault" HAL being able to bring about such a huge difference. Now imagine if a more effective system is introduced by Dassault in India.

When stuff is made in rupees, it gets a lot cheaper. The same reason why China became the factory of the world.

Just as Dassault has an obligation to the French govt, they have an obligation to the Indian govt as well, which is now guaranteed by the French govt. Even though India has not participated in Rafale's initial development, India will be a part of Rafale's future development, and both Indian and French govt will have to decide together the future of Rafale. So outsourcing and competition from Indian industries will be a reality French contractors will have to face, similar to the Typhoon and F-35 partners.
 
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@Khafee
The Rafles may be a thing of the past as far as UAE is concerned.


1487182175.jpg

UAE
Wed, 15 Feb 2017

UAE likely to reconsider the F-15 option?

There is talk within circles close to Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan about the possibility of reconsidering the option to acquire the F-15 aircraft in favor of the UAE Air Force (UAEAF). The following 464-word report sheds more light on the subject and tells what about the matter.

- See more at: http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_...der-the-F-15-option/5292#sthash.Y08VU0vd.dpuf
 
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@Khafee
The Rafles may be a thing of the past as far as UAE is concerned.


1487182175.jpg

UAE
Wed, 15 Feb 2017

UAE likely to reconsider the F-15 option?

There is talk within circles close to Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan about the possibility of reconsidering the option to acquire the F-15 aircraft in favor of the UAE Air Force (UAEAF). The following 464-word report sheds more light on the subject and tells what about the matter.

- See more at: http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_...der-the-F-15-option/5292#sthash.Y08VU0vd.dpuf

I had commented on this half baked news some time ago, let me see where that comment is.
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Here you go windy from 24th Dec 2016, I will explain to you privately why a non-US platform is imperative.


With the GE-129 engine, and Radar from Raytheon, no chance in hell.

Higher thrust 33k lbf ~ 34klbf engines, Northrup Grumman Radar, built in IRST / EOTS, then maybe. Otherwise no.

Boeing has been lobbying, screaming, howling, but doing nothing on the product development side, so it is highly unlikely that it will happen.
 
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Our views diverge because there are some points that you take as an obvious truth but that are not true for me.

Here is the list of false or highly hypothetical statements for me.

If Dassault takes care of cost of production, it will open up markets it does not have access to yet. For example, Rafale lost to the F15 in Singapore due to cost.
Much more complicated than that.

Look at the choices, considering you are in Dassault's shoes. There are countries you have no access to, but India does, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, South America etc. Over the next 10 years, many small countries will want to start coming closer to India for geopolitical reasons. What better way to gain influence in these countries than to start selling Rafales.
Highly hypothetical.

Dassault could very well have won the Brazilian deal had India been a partner then.
Highly hypothetical.

The French population can be greedy about protecting jobs in car production, but when it comes to military production, strategic considerations must outweigh local benefits.
Quite the opposite. We are talking of powerful weapons to do wars not innocent products like cars. Business is not everything with fighters like Rafale.

The French govt is obligated to order 11 Rafales/year from Dassault by contract. But the French want to cut down induction to 6/year in order to reduce the impact of Rafale orders on their budget so they can focus on other technologies also. This is not acceptable to Dassault, of course, their primary drive is profit. So the govt and Dassault need to work out a deal where the remaining 5/year is guaranteed through exports.

So the French govt will be more willing to allow ToT to India to build Dassault's facilities in India.
Yes but the 5/year have to be made in France because the deal is that at least 11 Rafale a year must be produced in Mérignac to keep the production line open. So I still don't understand your point and it make no sense to me. Exported Rafale made in France help to keep the French line open but not exported made in India.

Every single American company will disagree. And I have given you some of the strategic gains possible
I am French. It means I am fiercly independent and that I worthship the right to think by myself so playing the "american say so" card won't work.

Just as Dassault has an obligation to the French govt, they have an obligation to the Indian govt as well, which is now guaranteed by the French govt. Even though India has not participated in Rafale's initial development, India will be a part of Rafale's future development, and both Indian and French govt will have to decide together the future of Rafale.
So far India as bought 36 fighters from French production line. Nothing more for now. If India become a bigger user of Rafale with bigger numbers (IAF, Navy) and its own production line it will strengthen its position. In that case India will become a partner and France will have to make some steps to ensure a fair and durable partnership. But that doesn't mean that both partners will be equal in the discussion. And so far nothing is sure. The Indian Navy has just sent a RFI and a competition will be organized for a MII dual engine fighter. The later competition has not been won by DA so the whole discussion is surreal.
 
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Reliance industries will set up a massive plant to build parts for rafale globally

Rafale could still win the contract to make fighters in india soon if the F16 & GRIPEN people flop with theior bids.

UAE is india,s biggest trading partner even bigger than China & Usa combined at over $70 billion in trades combined between UAE & INDIA.

LET ME REPEAT $70 BILLION

India UAE are very very very close trading partners
 
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It doesn't. Dassault's primary business is Falcons.

Right there, wrong again! Exactly thanks to India, Dassault
booked 3 more Rafale orders than Falcons last year and the
backlog is 110 to 63 in favour of the mil jet.
http://www.aircosmosinternational.com/dassault-aviation-reports-2016-orders-deliveries-88303
Even when you're the cause, you're oblivious to reality! Amazing!

You pull numbers out of your hat and interpret them with vivid imagination.
Not impressed at all!

Tay.
 
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Right there, wrong again! Exactly thanks to India, Dassault
booked 3 more Rafale orders than Falcons last year and the
backlog is 110 to 63 in favour of the mil jet.
http://www.aircosmosinternational.com/dassault-aviation-reports-2016-orders-deliveries-88303
Even when you're the cause, you're oblivious to reality! Amazing!

Meh, it's temporary. Part of the global slowdown. What matters is the revenue and balance sheets, they all favour Falcon.

You pull numbers out of your hat and interpret them with vivid imagination.
Not impressed at all!

Tay.

What numbers were pulled out of what hat? Both numbers are official. MKI CPFH comes in at $12000, M-2000 comes in at $3000. If you add yearly maintenance to it, M-2000's not above $4000.

There is a reason why Parrikar said he wants to switch over to indigenous production and reduce the defence budget to half of what it will be over the next 10 years.
 
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Highly hypothetical.

Countries want to invest with India, but we don't have equipment necessary to go with our strategic partnership plans. Rafale will allow that, until our own stuff becomes marketable. It's not hypothetical.

It's all classified, but you should see the number of countries interested in purchasing weapons from India right now. Brahmos alone had 15 countries in line as of last year, and most of these countries have little to no military relations with France.

Highly hypothetical.

Agreed. But strategic consideration was the reason why Rafale lost in the first place. The Americans interfered and put pressure on the govt to choose Gripen over Rafale.

Brazil and India are BRICS partners, we have setup our own bank, we have our own grouping, all of these matter. India needs Brazil's resources. I don't know if you remember but Brazil's leadership had come to India requesting information on the MMRCA deal.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/03/27...accord-based-on-the-french-rafale-fighter-jet
President Dilma Rousseff plans to use her New Delhi visit later this week to sound out Indian leaders on the French Rafale fighter jet, which she is considering buying to beef up Brazil's air force.

“The exchange of ideas, impressions” on the Rafale “is certainly beneficial for us,” Maria Edileuza Fonteneles Reis, a senior Brazilian foreign ministry official, said last week.

“India's decision, which has not yet been formalized, could have an impact on Brazil's choice because it would show that the Rafale, which so far has never been exported to another country, has one customer,” said Nelson During, a respected Brazilian defence experts who runs the Defesanet website.

“It could resurrect an old project debated by the two countries in 2002 to join hands to produce the same plane,” he added.

Do you see how important this is? An Indian selection of Rafale would have most likely closed the deal in Brazil as well.

Quite the opposite. We are talking of powerful weapons to do wars not innocent products like cars. Business is not everything with fighters like Rafale.

That's not necessarily true when it comes to dealing with certain countries, particularly the circumstances during which when such deals happen.

For example, during WW2, Britain agreed to part with all of their technology to the Americans in order to access their production lines. And "all" included even the atomic bomb designs. Compared to that, Rafale is nothing.

India is going to match French military purchases, so the sops are going to have to be of equal value. If India doesn't go for Rafale at all, then that's a whole different discussion. We are discussing this based on the assumption that IAF has ordered 200 Rafales.

It's silly to believe India is going to sit back and allow Dassault to take India for a ride either, especially when there is a plan for India to invest in product development also.

Yes but the 5/year have to be made in France because the deal is that at least 11 Rafale a year must be produced in Mérignac to keep the production line open. So I still don't understand your point and it make no sense to me. Exported Rafale made in France help to keep the French line open but not exported made in India.

Agreed. But what will you do if you get far too many orders and cannot fulfill them?

After all the hoops Dassault has gone through, the production line has been expanded to only 22/year. If UAE adds their orders, Egypt and Qatar add more options, what are you going to do with just 22/year, give them all only 4 or 5 jets a year for a decade? Add two more countries and you will have to tell them you can't fulfill their orders, and lose them.

If you want to expand, it will cost a lot more. Equipment is more expensive, skilled manpower is more expensive, labour laws are stricter. India, with an already existing 20-30/year line, will get the advantage. Expansion in India will be a lot cheaper.

And after expanding, in case exports fail, what next? Will Dassault roll back everything they have built in France? The loss will be huge. Otoh, India will be able to absorb the difference easily because it will mean quicker inductions. France wants 180 jets over many decades, India wants 200+ Rafales in one decade. All of the financial advantages are with India.

Sorry my friend, Dassault is a private company which chases after profits. They will go where the money is. It is true for any company. And, as long as the orders come, they see Rafale's remaining future in the Indian military, not the French military.

Saab is already calling itself an Indian company.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-technology-to-india/articleshow/51593683.cms

I am French. It means I am fiercly independent and that I worthship the right to think by myself so playing the "american say so" card won't work.

Nothing wrong with that. But that would mean, you won't be competitive. And that has proven true for Rafale in many countries.

So far India as bought 36 fighters from French production line. Nothing more for now. If India become a bigger user of Rafale with bigger numbers (IAF, Navy) and its own production line it will strengthen its position. In that case India will become a partner and France will have to make some steps to ensure a fair and durable partnership. But that doesn't mean that both partners will be equal in the discussion. And so far nothing is sure. The Indian Navy has just sent a RFI and a competition will be organized for a MII dual engine fighter. The later competition has not been won by DA so the whole discussion is surreal.

Don't go by 'officially' published numbers. IAF requirement for jets is 400, IN's requirement is 150. And post 2030, IAF requirement is 350, without any official increase in squadron strength. IN's requirement could be equally big.

All the initial numbers, 36, 57 etc, are eyewash. Dassault got a 36 jet order only to fulfill an immediate shortfall, the MII program is huge. If Dassault wins the IN deal also, number of Rafales in India will cross 350 jets. But winning the IN deal is very difficult. Even if they don't, IAF's orders alone will cross 200. Dassault doesn't need IN deal to run a successful MII program.

Btw, exporting Rafales from India will be part of the deal with Reliance.
 
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Meh, it's temporary. Part of the global slowdown. What matters is the revenue and balance sheets, they all favour Falcon.

Only because as always you forget what doesn't fit your vision.
Atlantique 2, M-2000 support, nEUROn, Falcons sold as mil. equip.
the list of mil biz by Dassault is not restricted to the Rafale. FCAS,
UAV with Airbus ... Heck, I know and I probably forgot some!

Dassault Aviation is a dual business model and that is why it is so
important that they have repeatedly stated their intent to establish
a dual biz structure in India too as I last showed in the AeroIndia fil.

When asked about the importance of the mil activity, here in 2014
but he stutters it very so often , Éric Trappier said :

Absolument ! C'est ce modèle dual civil et militaire qui nous permet de maintenir des usines en France.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lesechos.fr/10/01/2014/l...es-usines-en-france--.htm#WGOPhpU8HUPoM0Rc.99

Absolutely, it is that dual civilian and military model that allows us to maintain production in France.
Tay trans.
So between Dassault's boss statement and your biased view,
guess which bright people and I as well will follow???

____________________________

On a more important matter, Bravo Yves, nice scoop and as IRL
not so long ago, total discretion, MDR! :enjoy:


And off to somewhere else, Tay.
 
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Only because as always you forget what doesn't fit your vision.
Atlantique 2, M-2000 support, nEUROn, Falcons sold as mil. equip.
the list of mil biz by Dassault is not restricted to the Rafale. FCAS,
UAV with Airbus ... Heck, I know and I probably forgot some!

Dassault Aviation is a dual business model and that is why it is so
important that they have repeatedly stated their intent to establish
a dual biz structure in India too as I last showed in the AeroIndia fil.

When asked about the importance of the mil activity, here in 2014
but he stutters it very so often , Éric Trappier said :

Absolument ! C'est ce modèle dual civil et militaire qui nous permet de maintenir des usines en France.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lesechos.fr/10/01/2014/l...es-usines-en-france--.htm#WGOPhpU8HUPoM0Rc.99

Absolutely, it is that dual civilian and military model that allows us to maintain production in France.
Tay trans.
So between Dassault's boss statement and your biased view,
guess which bright people and I as well will follow???


Wow, man. First you claim French are many times more productive than Indians. But then you can't explain why the same French products in India cost half.

Then you claimed that Rafale biz is bigger than Falcon simply because the orders of 1 year were smaller than Rafale's.

Now you go off on a tangent about some dual biz model which wasn't even being discussed.

Flogging dead horse - Exports is part of the Rafale MII.
http://www.indiatimes.com/news/indi...to-give-boost-to-tejas-technology-247838.html
"It will not be possible to roll out any of the 36 fighters being acquired by India from the production line as it would take time to set up but future orders, including exports, will be fulfilled with the new line," a person involved in the discussions has told ET.

It's the same with SE MII, both LM and Saab have said they want to make India their global hub. Put two and two together will ya? Exports is one of the purposes of the MII line. And all MII companies will be bound by the new DPP clauses that is to be released.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ighter-aircraft-saab/articleshow/55892872.cms
This will be putting India on the aerospace map as a net exporter of fighters."

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...nufacture-f-16-jets-in-india-lockheed-martin/
Lockheed Martin’s F-16 offer to India—the exclusive opportunity to produce, operate and export F-16 Block 70 aircraft—is without precedent.

Same rules for Dassault. Rafales that are made in India will also be exported to other countries. It's part of the deal.

Why don't you just wait and watch?
 
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