Instability and chaos was created both in Afghanistan and Iraq-Syria region by a series of US blunders:
- use of extremist Jihadi Islam as a geopolitical tool to defeat Soviets since 1979 in Afghanistan theater that eventually gave rise to Al Qaeda like groups and eventually the 9/11 event, which then initiated the GWOT by GW Bush Admin
- invasion of Iraq in 2003 and removal of Saddam, and the decision to dissolve Sunni dominated Iraq's Army and Bath Party so majority Shia's could come to power, which then increased Iran's influence in Iraq
- Iran found an opportunity to create a Shia crescent arc, that starts out from Iran and extends via Iraq and Alawi ruled Syria to Hezbollah dominated Lebanon
- Obama, famously the commander in chief found asleep on the steering wheel, or just plain incompetent, who decided not to actively support and develop a moderate resistance force in Syria to topple Assad. Instead he took the line that this is a Shia-Sunni conflict, let these Muslims kill each other as much as they want, what do we care?
- extremist financing in the Syrian conflict came from many US allied countries in the region, but the US looked the other way, due to Obama's hands off approach
- now that IS has taken over large areas, it was still not enough to bring the US into action, only after the IS taunts in the form of beheadings angered the US public enough to result in a public opinion shift. Only after that Obama had no choice but to act
What can we conclude from the above? That the experts sitting in state department are either clueless or incompetent? During Bush era, there was the excuse that neocons controlling every aspects of foreign policy, so state dept. officials were over ruled. But what excuse do the state dept. officials and the entire intelligence community have for this failure during Obama admin? To be fair Obama personally contributed a lot in the Syrian failure in my opinion, while state dept. officials, led by Hilary wanted more active role.
The US is intimately involved in Middle East region, have bases here and are in security partnership with many regional countries. Israel, "the 51st state" is here. So there is no question that the US has a stake. Mistakes by the US unfortunately affects not just the US, but the whole world, specially Muslim world. More than a million lives were lost since 2003 Iraq invasion according to a survey:
Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hundreds of thousands lives were lost in Afghanistan. Tens of thousands lost lives in Pakistan due to spread of extremism there. And now with the latest Syrian quagmire, we had around 250,000 death so far, while half of Syrian population were displaced and a good portion of them became refugees. And the falling of dominoes all started with US foreign policy of using extremism in Afghanistan.
But the origin of the chaos goes quite a bit farther back than that, if we want to dig up history. It has to do with British and French imperial policy in the region and the breakup of Ottoman empire. The far reaching consequence of that great geopolitical event is still affecting everything that is happening in the region.
The US and regional heavy weight countries must sit down and decide how to understand the source of instability and tackle head on the source of the instability, which is extremist ideology that is being funded by petrodollars (from US backed/allied countries) and fueled by perceived unfair foreign policies of the US. I personally have little confidence that this will happen. In the absence of such all encompassing effort, Turkey, the core rump state of Ottoman empire, which has been at the receiving end of many of these Western blunders which created chaos and instability in the region, should simply not take any active role in any halfhearted ad hoc effort. In the absence of such comprehensive plan, Turkey should rather let the people and countries clean up the mess, who created them in the first place.