The critical need for "Black Swan" Economic Planning

[CrazyZ]

ECC and SBP need to have long term plans for dealing with black swan economic events. The biggest event that needs a plan has been price surges in oil (and other commodities to a lesser extent). The resolution to this is simple......keep domestic energy prices high when global oil prices are low through taxation. Use this tax money to invest domestic energy production as well as to build a strategic stock pile of oil. Basically Pakistan should be building a reserve of oil and gas when oil is $20/barrel plus invest in domestic energy production to prepare for when oil is $120/barrel. Any thoughts?

 

[Darth Vader]

ECC and SBP need to have long term plans for dealing with black swan economic events. The biggest event that needs a plan (that I have seen over the last few decades) has been price surges in oil (and other commodities to a lesser extent). The resolution to this is simple......keep domestic energy prices high when global oil prices are low through taxation. Use this tax money to invest domestic energy production as well as to build a strategic stock pile of oil. Basically Pakistan should be building a reserve of oil and gas when oil is $20/barrel to prepare for when oil is $120/barrel. Any thoughts?

No
First Pakistan needs storage so atleast you have the capacity to fight of for few weeks.

Pakistan never built that capacity until Pakistan can work on this, will keep facing similar issues.

 

[CrazyZ]

No
First Pakistan needs storage so atleast you have the capacity to fight of for few weeks.

Pakistan never built that capacity until Pakistan can work on this, will keep facing similar issues.

PTI started a strategic reserve after Swift Retort. This needs to be expanded as part of longer term strategy to prepare for energy price spikes.

 

[Jango]

Use this tax money to invest domestic energy production as well as to build a strategic stock pile of oil.

Oh, you mean use that tax money to make the shiniest new, totally pointless project only for public consumption?

PTI started a strategic reserve after Swift Retort. This needs to be expanded as part of longer term strategy to prepare for energy price spikes.

Got more details about this?

 

[CrazyZ]

ECC and SBP need to have long term plans for dealing with black swan economic events. The biggest event that needs a plan has been price surges in oil (and other commodities to a lesser extent). The resolution to this is simple......keep domestic energy prices high when global oil prices are low through taxation. Use this tax money to invest domestic energy production as well as to build a strategic stock pile of oil. Basically Pakistan should be building a reserve of oil and gas when oil is $20/barrel plus invest in domestic energy production to prepare for when oil is $120/barrel. Any thoughts?

As I read this again it should say Pakistan should invest in domestic energy production that is viable at $70 dollar oil (Shale, low BTU gas, coal to liquids). This makes sense at $120/barrel but probably not at $20/barrel. Better to stock pile when oil us $20/barrel and invest in domestice energy production at $70/barrel.

Oh, you mean use that tax money to make the shiniest new, totally pointless project only for public consumption?



Got more details about this?

It may just have been an order. Not sure if prices were low enough to build the stock pile. Nawaz had a great chance when oil was $20/barrel to build up a stock pile. NG as well.....could have injected Qatari gas into Sui fields back when LNG was super cheap.

Oh, you mean use that tax money to make the shiniest new, totally pointless project only for public consumption?

Energy tax money should be kept in a seperate fund for energy projects. It should be kept out of general budget.