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Aeronaut
Firstly. does the PAF have the capital acqustion funds for such a procurement? IIRC the PAF has already said it will fail to meet self-imposed modernsation standards/force levels by 2017 because of a lack of funds, conisdering M2K-9s weren't even part of this plan I would speculate there is effectively 0 cash for any deal like this.
I'll follow your blueprint though:
* Strengths of such a procurement.
- The PAF has extensive experience in the Mirage birds (albeit an earlier model) not to mention Pak aerospace industeries have expereince in upgrading these Mirages (see ROSE). The M2K-9s fit with the PAF's single engine methodology. The M2K-9s are lethal machines and will add some serious teeth to the PAF's combat effectivness, complimenting the Thunder and F-16 nicely against an ever expanding IAF who faces none of the finacial constraints of the PAF. As this is a non-US bird one doesn't have to worry about the drama that comes with US products ie end-user agreements and sealed parts of your own a/c that you aren't even allowed to look inside. The French are a independant nation and won't just be the US's lacky.
* Weaknesses of such a procurement
- The IAF has already been using this bird for decades and is all too familiar with it, they've studied inside and out, compared how it performs against other fighters in their inventory, have sent it to their "top guns" (TACDE) and thus have almost unlimited literature on this bird and know very well what she can do-they've even gone to war with the bird. Addtionally with the IAF upgrading their M2Ks to a standard comparable with the -9s the UAE M2Ks won't really give any descernable edge over the IAF. Cost is obviously another issue of this procurement as it's unclear whether the PAF could even afford to fly this bird over the course of its remaining life span let alone the upfront unit costs. Any M2K-9 procurement may eat into JF-17 Blk2/3 orders which, long term, isn't good for the Pak aerospace industry. Now given the French are already looking to bag untold tens of billions from deals ranging from the Rafale deal to subs to nuke power plant deals with India one can only summise they will be loyal to the one with the deepest pockets if ever it came to a point where France needed to make a choice. So France really isn't a loyal freind at all.
* Difficulties in creating the ground infrastructure.
- Well if Pakistan has the cash I don't see why there would too much issues in setting up such ground infrastructure. OEMs in France would be more than willing to assist.
* Maintainance
- Well I don't really know if anyone outside of the UAE's AF is aware of the true life left in these birds so it's quite hard to guage what kind of issues the PAF could have with these birds. Having said that the M2Ks are said to be very easy birds to maintain and given there is certain MRO facitlies in Pakistan for the Mirage IIIs I think things could work out on this front with little difficulty.
* Spareparts
During peacetime, if Pakistan gets good contracts in place with French OEMs for spares and keeps up their end of the bargin (ie paying) then there is no reason spares should be an issue as it is well known the Frecnch are trustworthy on this front and will deliver what they have been contracted to. Once simply needs to look across the border, despite all the "flying coffin" drama, the M2Ks in IAF colours have an impressive safety record. Yes this isn't a fair comparison as the MIG-21s are older machines etc etc but still. However, for reasons I have outlined, when/if it comes to Wartime I don't think the PAF should expect much from the French on this front.
* Refurbishment
- Surely PAC could deal with most of the Refurbishment/MLUs involving the M2K-9s?
* Operational effectivene* Operational effectivene* Operational effectivene* Operational effectiveness/role
- Well the M2K-9s are a true swing-role platform and given the electronics on the -9s are quite capable across the board. However as far as the PAF is concerned, perhaps the M2K-9s could be best utulised for "ground pounding"/strike missions with the F-16 Blk.52s taking the A2A role.
* Price we should offer for them
- This is a hard one as, like I've said, one doesn't know the true life left in these birds so one would have to figure this out before a price could be calaculated. But I think the price would still be upward of $25-7 million.
* Pilot training
- Shouldn't be an issue, again, if the PAF is willing to shell out the cash. I'm sure the FrAF or UAE AF would be more than willing to help the PAF get the inital lot of pilots up to scratch not to mention the PAF laready has a training syllabus for the F-16 and Mirage IIIs so there should be little difficulty here.
* Weapons package
- An interesting one really as I'm not sure how this would work. Whether the PAF would have to talk to the French about an arms deal or could buy the UAE's waepons all upfront. AFAIK Pakistan has certain arms restrictions imposed on it by the EU so maybe the top-end stuff like the MICA is out of the question.
* Any upgrades
-Depends on the life left in the birds AND how much the PAF has to spend. You can see how much the IAF is paying to up grade their M2Ks (more than $40 million apeice).
* Cost to benefit ratio
- All things conisidered it's got to be pretty low. These are second hand birds, ones your adversoy has initmiate knowledge of and you cannot be sure of spares and such in the long run.
I would just add that these dreams could all come to nought as IIRC the UAE was seriosuly interested in a "buy back" deal with the French wrt the UAE's possible buy of Rafales. So it could transpire that there is nothing for the PAF to buy. One will have to wait and see how this works out as by all accounts the UAE is waiting to see what happens with India and their Rafale buy. I guess it would be a bit of a stink if by buying the Rafale the Indians ALSO make this much-speculated purchase by the PAF out of the question.
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