Iranian Missiles | News and Discussions

[Cthulhu]

Is this true ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1277164208224944129

This guy is a right-winger propagandist clown, He is usually busy cooking bullshit with his bodies in
Prager "University".

 

[triangle]

It took exactly 4 months from the production of the booster till putting together of the whole missile

P/N(production number?):M(P/F?)067-250
S/N(serial number):042
B/N(batch number):005
Date: 1397-07-14 (06-10-18)
Date of news item showing underground production facility: 07-02-19

If serial number is total production amount then 42 produced in 4 months is 126 produced in one year. I think that this is the minimum annual production amount and the real production rate is higher.

On the 26th of may 2017 Hajizadeh proclaimed that a 3rd underground missile production facility has been built and that the Dezful missile will be produced in the 'near future'.
If the number 250 in P/N(production number?):M(P/F?)067-250 is the total amount of produced boosters and assuming a 1 booster per day production rate, we get february 2018 as a production start date, which is 8 months after Hajizadehs proclamation on 26th of may 2017 saying that they built the underground facility and that the Dezful will be produced in the 'near future'. 8 months is enough time in my opinion for an experienced missile producer to set up a such a production line as shown in the news items.

In my opinion we have a low rate figure of 126 and another figure of 365 per annum production. Which number is closer to the truth, we can only guess..

 

[Blue In Green]

It took exactly 4 months from the production of the booster till putting together of the whole missile

P/N(production number?):M(P/F?)067-250
S/N(serial number):042
B/N(batch number):005
Date: 1397-07-14 (06-10-18)
Date of news item showing underground production facility: 07-02-19

If serial number is total production amount then 42 produced in 4 months is 126 produced in one year. I think that this is the minimum annual production amount and the real production rate is higher.

On the 26th of may 2017 Hajizadeh proclaimed that a 3rd underground missile production facility has been built and that the Dezful missile will be produced in the 'near future'.
If the number 250 in P/N(production number?):M(P/F?)067-250 is the total amount of produced boosters and assuming a 1 booster per day production rate, we get february 2018 as a production start date, which is 8 months after Hajizadehs proclamation on 26th of may 2017 saying that they built the underground facility and that the Dezful will be produced in the 'near future'. 8 months is enough time in my opinion for an experienced missile producer to set up a such a production line as shown in the news items.

In my opinion we have a low rate figure of 126 and another figure of 365 per annum production. Which number is closer to the truth, we can only guess..

@PeeD

Very good post Triangle!

PeeD any thoughts on this or anything you wanted to add or refute?

 

[PeeD]

That carbon nozzle is exclusively for the Dezful.

P/N is part number but 5 batches with 42 nozzles produced in batch/lot 5 is of course a good number.

5*50 are 250 Dezful, although initial batches might have been smaller or later batches larger.

It gives a idea on the numbers.

 

[skyshadow]

New Iranian Missile Could Strike Central Europe: Analysis

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/new-iranian-missile-could-strike-central-europe-analysis/

 

[GWXP]

Maybe the purpose of Qased SLV which is launched by TEL is to quickly put camera into space (even in military environment) and take real-time pictures of enemy airfields in order to locate enemy aircrafts positions and target them with precise ballistic missiles

 

[TruthHurtz]

Maybe the purpose of Qased SLV which is launched by TEL is to quickly put camera into space (even in military environment) and take real-time pictures of enemy airfields in order to locate enemy aircrafts positions and target them with precise ballistic missiles

It's an experimental platform, its purpose is to test sub-components of future Iranians SLVs and missiles.

 

[Muhammed45]

It's an experimental platform, its purpose is to test sub-components of future Iranians SLVs and missiles.

Maybe. But as IRGC general pointed out, they can inject satellites into the Orbit at optional angle. This was a huge achievement.

 

[Arminkh]

New Iranian Missile Could Strike Central Europe: Analysis

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/new-iranian-missile-could-strike-central-europe-analysis/

I don't understand these headlines. If the SLV was able to put a 50kg satellite in orbit that's orbiting the earth then a similar military version can strike anywhere on the planet by at least a 50kg warhead.

Is this a mass media technique to break the same conclusion into smaller pieces and announce it several times? I guess the next headline is Iran can strike US.

 

[triangle]

If we can assume a 1 fateh SRBM production rate per day since the introduction of the 1st generation fateh series in 2002, we can calculate the total amount produced to this day. Assuming several fateh class SRBM were/are being built at the same time we get a cumulative production run of 22 years and we arrive at the number of ~8000 fateh class SRBM produced till this day.

At the much quoted cost of $100.000 per fateh missile, this would add up to $803.000.000 or roughly $44.600.000 per year of SRBM production cost on average.

With this relatively low cost, one can imagine the total amount of produced fateh class missiles is easily higher than guesstimated here

 

[Philosopher]

It is a waste of time trying to deduce how many missiles Iran has produced, there are simple too many unknown variables. What we can say however is that Iran's missile program follows a very impressive trend in that as its systems get more advanced, the cost usually go down and not up. For example the Ra'ad-500 is more advanced than the Fateh-110 series in every way, but it costs half as much. Although I cannot comment on the actual number of Ra-ad they will produce, in theory it could be at minimum 2x the amount of Fateh. I would say it will be even more than that given the Ra'ad demands less in terms of size facilities required and so on.

Now I am awaiting for the Ra'ad technologies to be implemented into the Dezfoul missile to create a Ra'ad 1300/1400. That missile will be a game changer because it will allow Iran to directly target Israel using these cheap and easy to manufacture missiles.

I think it would be nice if we had a map showing us the full range of targets that Iran will potentially hit in a conflict and how far they are from Iran. I would say that vast majority will definitely fall in the range of the Dezfoul/Ra'ad 1300/1400.

 

[triangle]

It is a waste of time trying to deduce how many missiles Iran has produced, there are simple too many unknown variables. What we can say however is that Iran's missile program follows a very impressive trend in that as its systems get more advanced, the cost usually go down and not up. For example the Ra'ad-500 is more advanced than the Fateh-110 series in every way, but it costs half as much. Although I cannot comment on the actual number of Ra-ad they will produce, in theory it could be at minimum 2x the amount of Fateh. I would say it will be even more than that given the Ra'ad demands less in terms of size facilities required and so on.

Now I am awaiting for the Ra'ad technologies to be implemented into the Dezfoul missile to create a Ra'ad 1300/1400. That missile will be a game changer because it will allow Iran to directly target Israel using these cheap and easy to manufacture missiles.

I think it would be nice if we had a map showing us the full range of targets that Iran will potentially hit in a conflict and how far they are from Iran. I would say that vast majority will definitely fall in the range of the Dezfoul/Ra'ad 1300/1400.

With Fateh class I mean from Fateh-110(A?) 1st gen al the way to the Dezful and the recent ra'ad-500. That's a cumulative production run of ~22-23 years.

Because of the rapid enhancement of the Fateh class missiles there is no reason to produce the previous iteration anymore, especially during the whole 1st to 4th gen series. The way I presume this is as follows: Fateh-110A,B,C,D have had a production run from 2002 to 2015. That's 13 years of production. The Fateh-313 introduced in 2015 improved range through separating warhead and I presume just now stopped being produced with the arrival of the ra'ad-500. That's 5 years of production. The Zolfaghar I presume is recently stopped or very near to stopping being produced. That's ~3-4 years production. The Dezful is being produced I presume since 2018, and the ra'ad-500 less than a year. So rough estimate according to the above calculation we get ~8000 (+/- 500 for the ARM and ASHBM variants) Fateh class SRBM as of today.

Yes I know alot of presumptions and guessing but hey, that's what makes it interesting for us enthusiasts..

TBH, ~8000 Fateh class missiles for $800.000.000 is peanuts for Iran even if you double the amount of dollars to $1.6 billion for the total cost of production and storage facilities, TEL's (assume 1 TEL for 10 missiles), maintenance, etc.

It just goes to show you how much Fateh class missiles Iran might really have, that is if they have the room to spare..

 

[skyshadow]

The IRGC will unveil a missile system in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1278234841188835328

 

[Philosopher]

The IRGC will unveil a missile system in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1278234841188835328

It could be:

1- Ra'ad-1300/1400 system
2- Oghab air defence
3- A supersonic cruise missile

Or something completely different (most likely).

 

[triangle]

With a more precise calculation I arrive at ~9500 Fateh class SRBM produced in 26 cumulative years. Assuming for every 4 Fateh class missile, 1 MRBM (from Shahab 3 to the Khorramshahr) produced we get ~2400 missiles. Combined we get ~11900 BM's without the SRBM Qiam. For one Qiam (2010 entry into service) we assume 3 Fateh class SRBM which amounts to ~1200.

9500+2400+1200=~13100 BM's

If one MRBM for every 3 Fateh SRBM, then ~3100 and one Qiam for every 2.5 Fateh, then ~1500. 9500+3100+1500=~14100 BM's

So anywhere between 12000 and 16000 BM's

Total production cost assuming $100.000 for Fateh and $400.000 for MRBM and Qiam: ~$5.5 billion total production cost over the course of ~20 years. Assuming another $5.5 billion for the facilities, tunnels, silo's, R&D, TEL's, training etc, is $11 billion over 20 years. Spending ~$0.55 billion per year on average for the core of Iran's defense power and doctrine is doable.

Feel free to discuss this and look if it fits in the defense budget of Iran's armed forces

It could be:

1- Ra'ad-1300/1400 system
2- Oghab air defence
3- A supersonic cruise missile

Or something completely different (most likely).

4. The spike-like missile we have seen a test footage of recently

I'm hoping on either a SAM or BM