Here something I wrote some time ago about the Khorramshahr and a new graphic to describe it:
Last year Iran sent a message to western military intelligence by showing the video of the Khorramshahr missile launch.
I got an idea already back then what that message was but it took until this year till my idea got more solid by the parade footage.
The idea is based on two points:
1: The Khorramshahr did a strange maneuver after its boost phase: One of its vernier engines suddenly started to fire, creating a roll moment.
Back then some said this was a malfunction.
2: The Khorramshahr has a very large guidance section. Based on the video from this years parade it is clearly visible that the cable duct ends too early for any kind of realistic guidance system. This means the Khorramshahr has for some reason extra space after the upper tank section.
So what is that space used for? A kind of large guidance system?
Clear no, this was sufficiently miniaturized already with the Qiam.
Penetration aids? Maybe but there is enough space in the RV.
So how can these both points be combined?
To make it short:
The Khorramshahr turned 180° after its main engine went off and the first stage was ejected/separated to the front of the RV.
For what reason?
Well I think that extra space for the guidance sections actually houses the 3 600kg warheads in a reverse orientation.
This is a concept the Soviets pioneered with their SLBMs to make them more compact and shorter.
So after RV separation the RV fly basically upside down and the booster stage in front of it (another maneuver may let it fall short, inside Iran or it fly in forward position of the RV and act as penetration aid).
So why this strange and seemingly complicated method?
1: Missile becomes overall more compact and space around the tip of the nose can be used elegantly to house subsystems (e.g guidance)
2: As the R-27, on which the Khorramshahr is based, has fortunately a separate turbopump for it's two venier engines, they can act as PBV control engines after main engine shut down.
3: Using venier engines for that re-orientation maneuver means that the PBV does not need any extra high power control engines. Cost and complexity saved. A cold gas system could be sufficient for warhead/RV ejection trajectory changes. A spring based release system is even simpler.
4. With the large first stage in front, it could be utilized as a kind of penetration aid after in breaks up at re-entry. Or even explode in front in a controlled fashion to create debris.
In short: You does not need any additional engines for the PBV/MRV or just a cheap cold gas system for a limited MIRV capability if desired/felt necessary.
This all is very complex and hard to master and terms of innovation would be a really a great achievement. It would give Iran a conventional MVR/MIRV MRBM with high penetration aid capability and the destructive power of three Sejil-2/Ghadr-F missiles.
Things that speaks against this idea: The nose tip of the Khorramshahr could be shorter and more blunt, I doubt the guidance system would need that extra space. However that extra space could house penetration aids. The shown and tested example could be the sub-munition variant instead of the MRV.
Alternative explanations for this all:
-The sudden maneuver by the venier engine was to change the trajectory in order to reduce the range and let the warhead come down inside Iran.
-The additional space houses a second stage of a complex PBV that has its own boost engines and orientation/venier engines.
-The additional space houses a massive mount of penetration aids or a electronic warfare system/IR decoys.
Ok. I think analysts would go for my version because those two points make best sense in that way.
If correct it becomes clear that the Khorramshahr is a effort by Iran to create a "Qiam-1 for 2000km range".
The Qiam-1 is the most cost effective SRBM Iran has. It is sufficiently accurate and high speed, especially in its terminally guided variant to be used against strongly protected and defended targets 700-800km around Iran.
To put it simply again: Iran has thousands of them (or will have sooner or later) and can use it against thousand high priority targets around Iran.
However, enemy air- and missile power is a threat beyond those 700km.
60% would come from those 700km regions, 30% from regions beyond that and within 2000km and 10% from strategic ranges beyond 2000km.
Ghadr series and Sejil series had previously a role to suppress enemy assets to around 2000km, first and foremost with their sub munition warheads. With the Emad and the higher accuracy it offered, individual and hardened targets could be attacked directly at those ranges.
However Ghadr and Sejil were far from economic for strikes against enemy assets at those ranges. They are most economic as retaliation weapons against enemy area targets because each strike sends a message.
But for the task of knocking out individual/hardened targets, only the Emad was available. Compared to terminally guided Qiam variant, the Emad is still significantly more expensive.
With the Khorrmashahr this situation changes. It gives Iran a weapon that is more cost effective than the Qiam, delivers the same punch at ranges up to 2000km.
This offers a significant change in capabilities.
Area targets can be attacked by a terminally unguided large, single submunition warhead of 1800kg.
Individual or hardened targets by 3 wearheads similar to the recently shown terminally guided Qiam variant. The guidance system of each of the three MaRVs could be rather crude after a accurate trajectory injection by the main guidance system of the Khorramshahr. Even a wind-correction level guidance system for the MaRVs could be sufficient to offer the ~50m CEP necessary
What is cost effective? Calculate the cost of a 2000km strike radius low level interdictor bomber or a stealth fighter bomber, its qualification, operation, support systems cost plus its weapon cost.
If you have that number estimate the cost of a Khorramshahr and see how many you can get for that money.
Then estimate how many targets needs to be taken out and determine if you can get sufficient numbers
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After Baradar Skyhawk (Skyshadow?) on instagram provided good analysis I wanted to offer this analysis as thanks in return.
