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Iran’s Fattah hypersonic missile: real threat and technological challenge

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Iran’s Fattah hypersonic missile: real threat and technological challenge​

By Arie Egozi
Israeli experts analyzed the data related to the new hypersonic missile developed by Iran and concluded that it is a very real threat to Israel and may pose a threat to some European countries. The current version of the missile has a range of 1400 km, but advanced versions may have a greater range, increasing the threat to Europe. Israel will need to upgrade its multi-tiered missile defence systems to counter this new threat from Iranian hypersonic missiles.
Photo: Tasnim News Agency.
Israeli experts analyzed the data related to the new hypersonic missile developed by Iran and concluded that it is a very real threat to Israel and may pose a threat to some European countries. The current version of the missile has a range of 1400 km, but advanced versions may have a greater range, increasing the threat to Europe. Israel will need to upgrade its multi-tiered missile defence systems to counter this new threat from Iranian hypersonic missiles.

The IRGC of Iran presented the Fattah hypersonic ballistic missile on June 6, 2023. The missile has distinct qualities and is classified as a hypersonic missile by senior Israeli experts. According to Tal Inbar, an Israeli senior analyst, the missile has a diameter of about 1 meter and is approximately 15.3 meters long. It has a takeoff weight of around 12 tons, including nearly 9 tons of propellants. The reentry vehicle (RV) weighs 1 ton, and the warhead weighs between 350 to 450 kg.


The missile utilizes a guidance and navigation system based on Inertial Navigation Unit (INU) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which includes GPS and GLONASS. The assessed Circular Error Probable (CEP) accuracy is between 10 to 25 meters, and the warhead is High Explosive Fragmentation (HE F).
The missile’s first stage is based on or identical to the Khaibar Shekan missile. The Reentry Vehicle (RV) is equipped with a sturdy rocket motor similar to the kick motor used in satellite launchers, specifically the Arash-24. The RV includes four steering fins for controlling the missile during boost and reentry phases.
During the first phase, there is burnout of the rocket motor, boost, and separation of the RV from the first stage. In the second stage, the missile enters a ballistic flight, followed by the ignition of the RV’s sustainer outside the atmosphere. The RV then performs 3D maneuvers, including a pull-up reentry into the atmosphere using the four steering fins. In the third phase, there is a pitch-down maneuver using the four fins, and depending on the range, the sustainer continues to burn until the target is approached with a planned angle of attack.
The RV’s sustainer has a long burn time, starting outside the atmosphere and continuing until near impact. This long burn rocket motor is effective for minimizing gravity losses, with the missile flying at a small gamma angle. The missile approaches the target at a steep angle, minimizing wake and indicating supersonic speed only near impact.

The Israeli senior experts noted that Iran is likely the first country to implement a rocket motor into a hypersonic RV, although utilizing small rocket motors in an RV is not new in Iranian designs. Developing such a hypersonic, long-range strike missile requires a series of ground and flight tests, and setbacks and failures may have occurred during the development phase, although none have been published.


According to the expert, US space-borne assets can detect the missile launch but cannot provide impact point prediction. Throughout the entire flight phases, including the sustainer burn, the final impact point deviations may exceed hundreds of kilometers. The Iranian design incorporates a set of 3D maneuvers during this phase, which could potentially challenge western ballistic missile defence engagement strategies.
During the ballistic phase, it is assessed that the “Fattah” missile will use a depressed trajectory, which will limit the range of ground radars and electro-optical sensors due to line-of-sight (LOS) geometry. In the pull-up maneuver phase, as the reentry vehicle (RV) reaches an altitude of approximately 15 km, most sensors that are not in close proximity to this point may lose line-of-sight to the RV target. The pull-down maneuver, which involves potential high-g maneuvers, could also challenge tracking elements.
The Iranian research and development (R&D) community has demonstrated a genuine and unique hypersonic missile. It is not a replica or copy of any other design. Inbar stated that Iran has successfully closed most of its technological gap with both Eastern and Western missile communities. Iran is independent in these technologies and does not rely on external support from countries like DPRK or Russia.
The current status of the program is not clear, but it is likely that in-flight tests will be conducted prior to the initial deployment of the missile.

 
"Israel will need to upgrade"

As if it's a matter of an upgrade, not the fact that today's technologies can not intercept a maneuvering hypersonic projectile!
 
The Iranian research and development (R&D) community has demonstrated a genuine and unique hypersonic missile. It is not a replica or copy of any other design. Inbar stated that Iran has successfully closed most of its technological gap with both Eastern and Western missile communities. Iran is independent in these technologies and does not rely on external support from countries like DPRK or Russia.
Important parts highlighted for those who only believe Zionist/Western claims
 
Important parts highlighted for those who only believe Zionist/Western claims

Ballistic missile Iran is advanced easily top 5 in the world and top 3 if you rank based on inventory.

Cruise missile, Iran is lagging especially in the fields of supersonic and hypersonic cruise missile. Iran has yet to unveil their supersonic cruise missile let alone the capacity to build a hypersonic scramjet to fuel a hypersonic CM. These are fields Iran needs to catch up to Western and Eastern communities.
 

So technically the same missile if launched with a ballistic trajectory having a burnout velocity of 15 Mach rather than the glide-hypersonic that it currently does, it becomes a MaRV with borderline IRBM range, with CEP of ~3m.

This thing should be used for long-range Anti-Shipping strikes along with the AbuMehdi Cruise missile (1000 km). Our current AShBM range is limited to 700 KM with Zolfaghar Basir.

Ballistic missile Iran is advanced easily top 5 in the world and top 3 if you rank based on inventory.

Cruise missile, Iran is lagging especially in the fields of supersonic and hypersonic cruise missile. Iran has yet to unveil their supersonic cruise missile let alone the capacity to build a hypersonic scramjet to fuel a hypersonic CM. These are fields Iran needs to catch up to Western and Eastern communities.

Supersonic CM has not been the agenda for whatever reason. They wanted to increase the range of CM's after Deir ez-Zor strike but then some very similar systems have shown up.

Ya-Ali - 700 KM
Hoveyzeh - 1350 KM
Paveh - 1400 KM (Most advanced)
Soumar - 2500 KM
Abu Mehdi AShCM - 1000 KM
 
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Hoveyzeh - 1350 KM
Paveh - 1400 KM (Most advanced)
Soumar - 2500 KM
Abu Mehdi AShCM - 1000 KM
It seems you guys have World's top notch engines for subsonic cruise missiles (Tomahawk's engine level tech)
Our engine tech probably needs massive work to hit 1000km mark
Screenshot_20230609_232051.jpg
 
Supersonic CM has not been the agenda for whatever reason. They wanted to increase the range of CM's after Deir ez-Zor strike but then some very similar systems have shown up.

Ya-Ali - 700 KM
Hoveyzeh - 1350 KM
Paveh - 1400 KM (Most advanced)
Soumar - 2500 KM
Abu Mehdi AShCM - 1000 KM

Was announced a few years ago. This was the last update (2023).

He said that cruise missiles are not as quick as supersonic missiles as their flight path follows a low-altitude trajectory so the IRGC plans to develop supersonic cruise missiles

 
The Israelis would be suicidal fools if they did not recognise Fattah as a major threat. Unfortunately for them however, this does not alter the fact that they and the Americans will not be able to deal with this missile for at least the next decade.

Fattah is truly a marvel of a missile system. It is even more potent than a wedge shaped glide system for its intended range and purpose. Its glide capabilities combined with its end game sustainer motor has led to a true missile defence killer. This system is a killer of systems that are designed to kill missiles. Call it an apex missile.
 
The Israelis would be suicidal fools if they did not recognise Fattah as a major threat. Unfortunately for them however, this does not alter the fact that they and the Americans will not be able to deal with this missile for at least the next decade.

Fattah is truly a marvel of a missile system. It is even more potent than a wedge shaped glide system for its intended range and purpose. Its glide capabilities combined with its end game sustainer motor has led to a true missile defence killer. This system is a killer of systems that are designed to kill missiles. Call it an apex missile.

It’ll serve to open up Israel in a sense: FATTAH will obliterate any ABM installations that could shoot down missiles like Kheybar-Sheikan, EMAD, SHAHAB-3, Khorramshahr-1,2 and K-4, Dezful, etc., leaving room for other more numerous long range munitions to make their way in.

It’s a frontline missile no doubt about it.

This is the weapon Iran needs a substantial amount of.
 
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It’ll serve to open up Israel in a sense: FATTAH will obliterate any ABM installations that could shoot down missiles like Kheybar-Sheikan, EMAD, SHAHAB-3, Khorramshahr-1,2 and K-4, Dezful, etc., leaving room for other more numerous long range munitions to make their way in.

It’s a frontline missile no doubt about it.

This is the weapon Iran needs a substantial amount of.

Also, we must remember how it narrows down Iranian missile strike options to one system

Ballistic Trajectory for IRBM range: Current Option is Sejjil-II with a MARV or Khorramshahr-2/4, If Fattah is lofted at that Ballistic trajectory it can reach 2500 KM with a TVC MaRV

AntiShipping Ballistic Missile: Current available option is Khalije Fars (300 KM), Zolfaghar Basir (700 KM), both are Quasi Trajectory but lose KE coming down while Fattah can do same at Hypersonic Speed

Ballistic/Quasi Ballistic Trajectory: Raad-500, Zolfaghar, Emad-TRV/MaRV, Qiam-II/Rezvan all will despite having MaRV, Quasi B trajectories can be replaced by Fattah.

I am not saying Iran should just retire all these, they are super useful for numbers but the best or Actual Combination should be

IRBM Range:
PBV Post Boost Vehicle K-4 (3200 KM)
Sejjil-II MaRV (2500 KM)
Fattah-MaRV at Ballistic Trajectory (~2500 KM)

MRBM Range:
Kheybar Shikar Skip GV-MaRV (1450 KM)
Fattah-HGV/MaRV (1400 KM)

SRBM/TRBM:
Zolfaghar MaRV (700 KM)
Fath-360 (120 KM)/

AntiShipping Ballistic Missile:
Zolfaghar Basir (700 KM)
Fattah HGV (1400 KM)

Reserve Forces: MaRV's like Emad, Qiam/Rezvan, Fateh-313, Khalije-Fars AShBM
 
"Israel will need to upgrade"

As if it's a matter of an upgrade, not the fact that today's technologies can not intercept a maneuvering hypersonic projectile!
It’s ploy to get more money from the American tax payer
 
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