"We Need To Be Careful!" - Is India Going To Be The Next China?

[datafreak]

I think the guys in that video are right and i have had the same thoughts for sometime now. We in the West still havent given much attention to India as a future threat, whoch i think is very wrong. India has EVERYTHING to emerge as a credible world power in future once they get their things in order, and the more wealthy they grow the more their governance structure will improve. So they can 100% become the next China for us.
For one India is not a western ally even today and they have no intention of being one, since they see themselves as too big to be a US/Western ally/subordinate, reason India will never be a US ally per se, but yeah a temporary partner against China only as long as it serves India's interests the day China solved its border conflict with India then i believe India will remain neutral between the US/China rivalry or even be a partner of China at worse. Prior to the 2020 bloody border skirmishes India and China were on failry good terms and Chinese companies were beginning to dominate India's economy in tech,telecom, infrastructure sectors etc So this ust shows that on a normal day with normal relationd between both sides India can be on a good terms with China.
In fact even today India has refused to follow our lead and sanction Russia or stop oil import from Russia and they still maintain their ties with Russia. Plus they are still in the China led Asian infrastructure development Bank(AIIB) made of over 100 countries where China gave them the 2nd position of shares among all other countries to woo them, and they are an integral part of China origin SCO, and the BRICS. Additionally , Indians have always been wary of the US/West for a very long time actually, they still dont trust the US/West and they have that feeling of not being treated the way they think we should treat them which is:give them everything they want/need be it full technology transfers, the latest US military tech/weapons, permanent seat in UN, enacting a law to relocate our investments and companies from China to India completely etc etc
In short it's not that India cant be trusted, but that they are too big and the have the potential (giving their size) to dwarf even the US in future if things align well for them and they get their act together in the near future to be honest. I actually think they can and will be a threat in future as well. Just think about it, without China's recent rise, India will.be the most talk about story of the miracle of the decades giving how far rhey have come since their economic collapse in the early 90s. They are second only to China in many aspects of their growth story recently . Its just that China's growth has been so spectacular that it has overshadowed Indias own rise. However, eventhough might hate China for that, I actually think they are lucky about that, since China has made their own rise not to attract the attention of the US/West and for them.to go inder the radar and even be courted/wooed by the US/West and China on the other part. So they are currently on.a sweet spot, and they should thank CHINA for that since China can draw all the hostilities and focus from the US while India keeps growing silently and peacefully. Same way China grew under the radar and advantages the US provided them to woo them against the Soviet Union and later war on terror which distracted the US.

I noticed only the UK considers 'good relations' as following our lead'. US doesn't. If you have free market capitalism (uncompromisable) and ideally democracy (compromisable because they think capitalism will lead to democracy), they are ok with 'good relations'. They don't expect us to follow the lead all the time
a) we didn't give troops to Iraq/Afh and they were fine
b) We are managing Russia keeping some interests in mind and they trust us to remember there are red lines where even those interests have to be given up

UK is out of step with history

No India is not going to be the next China but it will become a middle income in the late 2030s with an economy TWENTY TIMES that of Pakistan.

That is what matters and Pakistan may be forced to give up its claim to IOC Kashmir in return for economic benefits by trading with India.

And there's the strategy. Our approach is to make Kashmiri's average income about 10 to 20 times that of Pak and that will settle a lot of questions.

Anyone has doubts can check the amount of money we have parked for Kashmir in our annual budgets in recent years.

 

[indushek]

I think the guys in that video are right and i have had the same thoughts for sometime now. We in the West still havent given much attention to India as a future threat, whoch i think is very wrong. India has EVERYTHING to emerge as a credible world power in future once they get their things in order, and the more wealthy they grow the more their governance structure will improve. So they can 100% become the next China for us.
For one India is not a western ally even today and they have no intention of being one, since they see themselves as too big to be a US/Western ally/subordinate, reason India will never be a US ally per se, but yeah a temporary partner against China only as long as it serves India's interests the day China solved its border conflict with India then i believe India will remain neutral between the US/China rivalry or even be a partner of China at worse. Prior to the 2020 bloody border skirmishes India and China were on failry good terms and Chinese companies were beginning to dominate India's economy in tech,telecom, infrastructure sectors etc So this ust shows that on a normal day with normal relationd between both sides India can be on a good terms with China.
In fact even today India has refused to follow our lead and sanction Russia or stop oil import from Russia and they still maintain their ties with Russia. Plus they are still in the China led Asian infrastructure development Bank(AIIB) made of over 100 countries where China gave them the 2nd position of shares among all other countries to woo them, and they are an integral part of China origin SCO, and the BRICS. Additionally , Indians have always been wary of the US/West for a very long time actually, they still dont trust the US/West and they have that feeling of not being treated the way they think we should treat them which is:give them everything they want/need be it full technology transfers, the latest US military tech/weapons, permanent seat in UN, enacting a law to relocate our investments and companies from China to India completely etc etc
In short it's not that India cant be trusted, but that they are too big and the have the potential (giving their size) to dwarf even the US in future if things align well for them and they get their act together in the near future to be honest. I actually think they can and will be a threat in future as well. Just think about it, without China's recent rise, India will.be the most talk about story of the miracle of the decades giving how far rhey have come since their economic collapse in the early 90s. They are second only to China in many aspects of their growth story recently . Its just that China's growth has been so spectacular that it has overshadowed Indias own rise. However, eventhough might hate China for that, I actually think they are lucky about that, since China has made their own rise not to attract the attention of the US/West and for them.to go inder the radar and even be courted/wooed by the US/West and China on the other part. So they are currently on.a sweet spot, and they should thank CHINA for that since China can draw all the hostilities and focus from the US while India keeps growing silently and peacefully. Same way China grew under the radar and advantages the US provided them to woo them against the Soviet Union and later war on terror which distracted the US.

Hi
I don't think most of us Indians, hate China for their growth honestly. In a way it has been source of 'pushing oneself to do better', in the way that our media keeps comparing (like any media these days, and I mean being sensational without the need for it). India's growth with China.

Despite 1962, China is a Asian nation (yeah I know East and West Asian, and other problems between us) has shown that, countries once under ambit of Western control can grow to Western levels (at least economically, one can vax eloquent on technical growth etc. Am talking about general level of well being economically for people at large scale and in large numbers) and most Indians admire this achievement of theirs.

So am basically agreeing with you that, China in this way is a source of inspiration for Indians (yeah not everyone is hateful please, whatever online behavior maybe. Talk to most Indians in real, they will echo this feeling). While Japan did this too, there are some fundamental differences between them and China. The colonial past and generational memory proximity wise, being the most obvious ones.

Coming to India and West, I don't think we will be any threat to West militarily. Narrative wise we will like to see a change, as West portrays us in a very unfavorable manner (some very unjustified, and some justified again but then there is no need to bring such criticism in every report made). I mean this even when as per many are thinking here, some decades down the road where we emerge as a credible power (don't like this super duper stuff, they are just names).

I say this because, in all the years we existed as a cultural group (as a nation state, we are too young) there are not many instances of us going out to occupy. It's not just our thing I have to say, and further given the recent colonial past and the period before that, the first and foremost interest of Indian Govt's for years to come will be to make sure we survive as a nation. Am sure all those thinktanks worth their salt, will be reading all this better than me. I bet for foreseeable future this makes them confident go forward into a relation with India.

It's no secret that West is courting India, given the issues with China right now. So both parties will be looking for one's interests, and if it becomes a mutually beneficial (for now all that you mentioned about tech etc, but in future a situation where both don't step on each other's toes) don't think either will have to worry. That's a BIG IF though, but also will take at least half a century to be looked into.

 

[HAIDER]

And I have never seen Pakistanis talk about success stories of Pak to others. Telling.

We don't ...... we do our work and leave ...no romance with work places ..

 

[mike2000 is back]

I noticed only the UK considers 'good relations' as following our lead'. US doesn't. If you have free market capitalism (uncompromisable) and ideally democracy (compromisable because they think capitalism will lead to democracy), they are ok with 'good relations'. They don't expect us to follow the lead all the time
a) we didn't give troops to Iraq/Afh and they were fine
b) We are managing Russia keeping some interests in mind and they trust us to remember there are red lines where even those interests have to be given up

UK is out of step with history

No, eventually it will come to that. It hasn't all this time simply because the US was not taking China's rise, challenge and the threat they will pose seriously before until very recently. So there was no reason for the US to start posturing or trying to put pressure on its allies in that regard especially when the US herself was not doing the same. However today things have changed, the US now recognises China's rise and the future threat they will come to pose to US global dominance , hence the recent actions of placing restrictions on sale of high tech équipements, semiconductors, chips, etc to China , imposition of high tarrifs on Chinese goods trade world they tried to launch with China, and the decoupling they have been trying to achieve. The US has pressured all the major chip producing countries (whonare all US allies) from Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, the Dutchs , even Britain(ARM had to stop providing China with its most advanced Neoverse V design chips to China) etc to stop providing their most advanced chips and semiconductor equipements to China for example.
These are all things that nobody would have thought will happen just 6 years ago when the US didn't place such attention on China, and it will only get more worse with time as China's keeps growing. So yes things will change, it will get increasingly difficult to play both sides without any thoughts.
Moroever, i dont get what you mean when you are bringing free market democracy into the discussion . Practically speaking, having been to India twice and red alot about the country i can say India doesn't really much of those, so i dont understand why you think just because of those two things makes it okay for the US irrespective of any other thing. Lol In fact i will say China has even more free market capitalist country than India, so you think the US will consider India more of a threat than China because of that? Lol For democracy it is secondary to the real physical threat pose by a powerful influential country. Even if China was ruled by a democracy or KMT/CCP/DPP today it wouldnt change the threat their rise will have against US dominance just due to their sheer size and the impact they will have on others. So it will be the same. So that again is not the point.. The hell, even US allied democratic Japan was almost once considered as a threat by the US when they were growing so fast and dominant economically in the 60s to 80s. Its just how things are.

 

[renhai]

So was China..in fact far worse.
Stories of burn barrels and people begging on the streets in late 1980's China.

But in 1951. American soldiers want to be taken in by China.

It's all just a flow.

Made in Taiwan -> Made in Japan -> Made in China

Is India next...wouldn't be shocking.

Indeed. I believe India will replace US soon.

 

[datafreak]

No, eventually it will come to that. It hasn't all this time simply because the US was not taking China's rise, challenge and the threat they will pose seriously before until very recently. So there was no reason for the US to start posturing or trying to put pressure on its allies in that regard especially when the US herself was not doing the same. However today things have changed, the US now recognises China's rise and the future threat they will come to pose to US global dominance , hence the recent actions of placing restrictions on sale of high tech équipements, semiconductors, chips, etc to China , imposition of high tarrifs on Chinese goods trade world they tried to launch with China, and the decoupling they have been trying to achieve. The US has pressured all the major chip producing countries (whonare all US allies) from Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, the Dutchs , even Britain(ARM had to stop providing China with its most advanced Neoverse V design chips to China) etc to stop providing their most advanced chips and semiconductor equipements to China for example.
These are all things that nobody would have thought will happen just 6 years ago when the US didn't place such attention on China, and it will only get more worse with time as China's keeps growing. So yes things will change, it will get increasingly difficult to play both sides without any thoughts.
Moroever, i dont get what you mean when you are bringing free market democracy into the discussion . Practically speaking, having been to India twice and red alot about the country i can say India doesn't really much of those, so i dont understand why you think just because of those two things makes it okay for the US irrespective of any other thing. Lol In fact i will say China has even more free market capitalist country than India, so you think the US will consider India more of a threat than China because of that? Lol For democracy it is secondary to the real physical threat pose by a powerful influential country. Even if China was ruled by a democracy or KMT/CCP/DPP today it wouldnt change the threat their rise will have against US dominance just due to their sheer size and the impact they will have on others. So it will be the same. So that again is not the point.. The hell, even US allied democratic Japan was almost once considered as a threat by the US when they were growing so fast and dominant economically in the 60s to 80s. Its just how things are.

I would say your analysis is misguided
a) Reason why US did not look at China as an adversary was not because they didn't think Chine would become an economic giant- but their belief that if the economy opens up, then a slow progress towards more leiberlized social instituions will follow. That assessment was right and it was happening until Xi Ping fatty took control.

b) On India the US gambles that India would show an increasingly free market behavior and that is true. Every year we open up more of the economy.

c) Unlike the UK the US expects a round table of major powers and that is what it is getting. UK, being a dinosaur, expects a model where an anglophile nation will 'lead' and others will follow

 

[etylo]

Yes, but ask yourself why didn't that happen before? Those countries are all the strongest and closest allies of the US in Asia and their economy/technology landscape rise was also intertwined with the US. So if not for the US Normalising relations with China and bringing China into the Western camp against the Soviet Union then none of those countries would have been allowed to invest in China in the first place and they wouldnt have initiated it either since Communist China allied with the Soviet union was considered a major threat to them back then. In short the US brought China to the fold , normalised and facilitated relations between its East Asian allies and China thus paving the way for US and its allies investing, and moving their factories in China, gave the permanent seat at UN back to PRC away from Taiwan (ROC), all this allowed the inclusion of China in WTO etc , You can't deny the things the US did to bring China into the world order.
Had the US not made the move to cosy up with China and facilitate its inclusion among the West, then there is absolutely no way China could have grown to this extent today. That's a fact not an opinion..

China opened itself for outside investment only after it adopted the Reform and Opening policy in 1979, before that, China was closed and off limit for any outside investments or inside private business, simple as that. If thats the case as you said, then why lots investments from Taiwan and Singapore still find their way into China now as these two state and region are aligned with the US that considers China Americas enemy now. Investments will find places where profits to be made.

As for UN, it was China that literally earned its seat and PM of UN security council back in UN by the support of many countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia. As for US and some European countries, they voted against China to regain the regular membership and the PM of UN security council.

So, dont BS about Chinese matter if you dont know the facts, US and West are not that kind to China, the US and West dont have either the intention or the ability to be the savior of China or the world.

 

[mike2000 is back]

I say this because, in all the years we existed as a cultural group (as a nation state, we are too young) there are not many instances of us going out to occupy. It's not just our thing I have to say, and further given the recent colonial past and the period before that, the first and foremost interest of Indian Govt's for years to come will be to make sure we survive as a nation. Am sure all those thinktanks worth their salt, will be reading all this better than me. I bet for foreseeable future this makes them confident go forward into a relation with India

I disagree, saying India a peaceful power not having an intention to occupy or be belligerent against others is factually wrong. India has been even more belligerent in its neighbourhood as much as(or maybe even more than) China has been in her own neighbourhood.
Firstly, India intervened militarily in Kashmir and has today incorporated it completely into its union terrirtories and you dont have about 900,000 soldiers there for no reason. Lol while still claiming the other part occupied by Pakistan. In short both you guys are occupying those terrirtories. Best thing both of guys can do is to recognise the current status quo as de facto your country teriritory or both of you make them vote themsleves if they want to be independent on their own or join either side. However i know that wont happen anyway, im not judging just making an observation.
Additionally India intervened militarily and supported Bengalis uprising against East Pakistans government to carve out Bengldesh from Pakistan(India's arch enemy.) Im not saying it was wrong per se, im just making an observation.
Secondly you guys outright invaded and annexed Sikkim into your country. Lol Again im just making an observation not judging you guys, afterall its geo politics, if you can do so with little to no consequences then its a plus and net gain for your country.
Thirdly, you guys basically control Bhutan as a quasi colony to this day, in fact you basically almost run their foriegn and military affairs. Lol There's a reason they can't sign a boder treaty with China without India's government consent or approval. Lol In short you occupy them already, just not officially militarily. Lol

Fourthly, its widely known that India has been involved in Sri Lanka for a long time, and even sponsored the bloody separatist Tamil tigers group for a long time against the sri Lanka government and use it as a leverage against sri Lanka. And even today India is still involved in influencing Sri Lankas politics to its favour and RAW is active there. Its same thing with the Maldives etc. Again i'm no judging just making an observation..

In short, your point that India doesnt have it in its habit to get involved in occupying others and being belligerent in other countries giving its colonial past is factually wrong. Since that's not the case, the only reason India is not doing so away from its neighbourhood as well is simply because you dont have the means to do yet unlike the US.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

But in 1951. American soldiers want to be taken in by China.

Stupidness.

Oh..and ever since 1945 Chinese women want to be taken in by American soldiers

US Marines in Qingdao during Operation Beleaguer.

 

[renhai]

No, eventually it will come to that. It hasn't all this time simply because the US was not taking China's rise, challenge and the threat they will pose seriously before until very recently. So there was no reason for the US to start posturing or trying to put pressure on its allies in that regard especially when the US herself was not doing the same. However today things have changed, the US now recognises China's rise and the future threat they will come to pose to US global dominance , hence the recent actions of placing restrictions on sale of high tech équipements, semiconductors, chips, etc to China , imposition of high tarrifs on Chinese goods trade world they tried to launch with China, and the decoupling they have been trying to achieve. The US has pressured all the major chip producing countries (whonare all US allies) from Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, the Dutchs , even Britain(ARM had to stop providing China with its most advanced Neoverse V design chips to China) etc to stop providing their most advanced chips and semiconductor equipements to China for example.
These are all things that nobody would have thought will happen just 6 years ago when the US didn't place such attention on China, and it will only get more worse with time as China's keeps growing. So yes things will change, it will get increasingly difficult to play both sides without any thoughts.
Moroever, i dont get what you mean when you are bringing free market democracy into the discussion . Practically speaking, having been to India twice and red alot about the country i can say India doesn't really much of those, so i dont understand why you think just because of those two things makes it okay for the US irrespective of any other thing. Lol In fact i will say China has even more free market capitalist country than India, so you think the US will consider India more of a threat than China because of that? Lol For democracy it is secondary to the real physical threat pose by a powerful influential country. Even if China was ruled by a democracy or KMT/CCP/DPP today it wouldnt change the threat their rise will have against US dominance just due to their sheer size and the impact they will have on others. So it will be the same. So that again is not the point.. The hell, even US allied democratic Japan was almost once considered as a threat by the US when they were growing so fast and dominant economically in the 60s to 80s. Its just how things are.

Don't lie at UNSC. thank you.

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 (XXVI) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Goenitz]

loyal , hardworking , intelligent and one national language , these are the qualities you said chinese , japanese , koreans have ,
Americans are different from chinese, koreans and japanese but they progressed before them.

Sure.. West started progressing in 16-17 century and despite wars and setbacks, they are on a progressive path.
But you look at some traits. Though the sub-continent was at par with Far East Asia, but they quickly progressed a lot in automotive, IT, electronics, electrical, radars, aircraft, etc etc. Besides that in theory like 6-sigma quality control and many more.
India lacks behind in all but is somewhat ok in IT and automobiles compared to them.

Indians are rarely spoken of as lazy or disloyal. Most are considered professional and commited to their jjob. You should talk only about yourself then.

You can add delusional too.

 

[datafreak]

Sure.. West started progressing in 16-17 century and despite wars and setbacks, they are on a progressive path.
But you look at some traits. Though the sub-continent was at par with Far East Asia, but they quickly progressed a lot in automotive, IT, electronics, electrical, radars, aircraft, etc etc. Besides that in theory like 6-sigma quality control and many more.
India lacks behind in all but is somewhat ok in IT and automobiles compared to them.


You can add delusional too.

It's not India that's got an FDi crisis, investment crisis or gone to IMF 23 times.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I think the guys in that video are right and i have had the same thoughts for sometime now. We in the West still havent given much attention to India as a future threat, whoch i think is very wrong. India has EVERYTHING to emerge as a credible world power in future once they get their things in order, and the more wealthy they grow the more their governance structure will improve. So they can 100% become the next China for us.
For one India is not a western ally even today and they have no intention of being one, since they see themselves as too big to be a US/Western ally/subordinate, reason India will never be a US ally per se, but yeah a temporary partner against China only as long as it serves India's interests the day China solved its border conflict with India then i believe India will remain neutral between the US/China rivalry or even be a partner of China at worse. Prior to the 2020 bloody border skirmishes India and China were on failry good terms and Chinese companies were beginning to dominate India's economy in tech,telecom, infrastructure sectors etc So this ust shows that on a normal day with normal relationd between both sides India can be on a good terms with China.
In fact even today India has refused to follow our lead and sanction Russia or stop oil import from Russia and they still maintain their ties with Russia. Plus they are still in the China led Asian infrastructure development Bank(AIIB) made of over 100 countries where China gave them the 2nd position of shares among all other countries to woo them, and they are an integral part of China origin SCO, and the BRICS. Additionally , Indians have always been wary of the US/West for a very long time actually, they still dont trust the US/West and they have that feeling of not being treated the way they think we should treat them which is:give them everything they want/need be it full technology transfers, the latest US military tech/weapons, permanent seat in UN, enacting a law to relocate our investments and companies from China to India completely etc etc
In short it's not that India cant be trusted, but that they are too big and the have the potential (giving their size) to dwarf even the US in future if things align well for them and they get their act together in the near future to be honest. I actually think they can and will be a threat in future as well. Just think about it, without China's recent rise, India will.be the most talk about story of the miracle of the decades giving how far rhey have come since their economic collapse in the early 90s. They are second only to China in many aspects of their growth story recently . Its just that China's growth has been so spectacular that it has overshadowed Indias own rise. However, eventhough might hate China for that, I actually think they are lucky about that, since China has made their own rise not to attract the attention of the US/West and for them.to go inder the radar and even be courted/wooed by the US/West and China on the other part. So they are currently on.a sweet spot, and they should thank CHINA for that since China can draw all the hostilities and focus from the US while India keeps growing silently and peacefully. Same way China grew under the radar and advantages the US provided them to woo them against the Soviet Union and later war on terror which distracted the US.

The guy running the interview is Iranian-American so he probably feels he has better insights than most Westerners in raising caution of the probabilities of creating another Frankenstein monster.

 

[renhai]

Stupidness.

Oh..and ever since 1945 Chinese women want to be taken in by American soldiers

US Marines in Qingdao during Operation Beleaguer.

For American brothers. The Chinese military agreed to host the first "POWs Olympics" in 1951.

Americans are very good at running away. Look. The American won the long-distance race! Let's congratulate him!

Oh, even long distance race. American soldiers still don't forget to raise their hands...

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Yes, but ask yourself why didn't that happen before? Those countries are all the strongest and closest allies of the US in Asia and their economy/technology landscape rise was also intertwined with the US. So if not for the US Normalising relations with China and bringing China into the Western camp against the Soviet Union then none of those countries would have been allowed to invest in China in the first place and they wouldnt have initiated it either since Communist China allied with the Soviet union was considered a major threat to them back then. In short the US brought China to the fold , normalised and facilitated relations between its East Asian allies and China thus paving the way for US and its allies investing, and moving their factories in China, gave the permanent seat at UN back to PRC away from Taiwan (ROC), all this allowed the inclusion of China in WTO etc , You can't deny the things the US did to bring China into the world order.
Had the US not made the move to cosy up with China and facilitate its inclusion among the West, then there is absolutely no way China could have grown to this extent today. That's a fact not an opinion..

He honestly doesn't understand that it wasn't China suddenly exporting things to most of the World one day..they basically had to be allowed in.

How many countries today are importing North Korean goods or setting up shop there? it was the same thing.

For American brothers. The Chinese military agreed to host the first "POWs Olympics" in 1951.

Can you go troll/ruin some other thread?

@waz can you kick him off.