What's new

"We Need To Be Careful!" - Is India Going To Be The Next China?

I have a standard response I give to assertions like this:

You make several fundamental analytical errors, foremost among them is thinking India is a country. India is exactly as Lee Kuan Yew described it: 32 countries that happened to be arrayed a British railway line.

India (if we entertain the existence of such a thing as a cohesive unit meriting the label country) having a large population does not entail it will be a "massive force." A large population is a necessary but far from sufficient condition. Without the infrastructure, the governance, the human development, and a critical role to play in the global economy - none of which India has - all its size will mean is that it will have a massive quantity of poor, uneducated, and unskilled people on the verge of starvation.

And this fetishization of youth is at best passé. Gone are the days when a country with a massive population could develop by ripping hundreds of millions of young peasants off the land and packing them into factories. China was the first and last country to pull off that trick. Those factories have all been automated and those jobs by which a country's income could rise are all gone.

China has the global manufacturing marketplace on lock and nothing the US or anyone else is doing is going to change that. China would have to fail and India would have to succeed for India to even have a chance and neither of those will happen.

I used to think like you and believe that development was the norm. I calculated a country's "potential" purely based on the number of people it had - but that just isn't how the world works. What China did is frankly miraculous and it won't be repeated.
India definitely has much more divisions than China but it is a large geographically contiguous country and because of that, it is unlikely to splinter and the various regions and cultures will likely continue to be integrated into a larger Indian common economy and mainstream culture. Will it ever be as efficient as China? Likely not. But it is a massive country so it will become a major presence.

I don’t believe the development ladder has been kicked away. Automation is over exaggerated and economic activity and vibrancy will naturally move towards areas of the world with a massive and young population.
 
India definitely has much more divisions than China but it is a large geographically contiguous country and because of that, it is unlikely to splinter and the various regions and cultures will likely continue to be integrated into a larger Indian common economy and mainstream culture. Will it ever be as efficient as China? Likely not. But it is a massive country so it will become a major presence.

I don’t believe the development ladder has been kicked away. Automation is over exaggerated and economic activity and vibrancy will naturally move towards areas of the world with a massive and young population.

automation is for real. I expect China to be exploit it to retain its dominance in manufacturing
 
China literally took land from land owners and redistributed them, and invested heavily in creating an unrivaled manufacturing capability by displacing millions of people without their consent

Can India do the same?

Already did:

Land reforms since independence

Land reforms refer to the regulation of ownership, operation, leasing, sales, and inheritance of land.

Objectives of land reforms after independence

Land is the basis of all economic activity and for a largely agrarian society like India; this carries a lot of import.

Indian rural society is symbolised by a rich landowning minority (zamindars/landlords) and an impoverished landless majority (peasants). Therefore, land reforms are a vital step towards economic and social equality.

Objectives of land reforms:

  • Redistribution of land across society so that land is not held in the hands of a few people.
  • Land ceiling to disburse surplus land amongst small and marginal farmers.
  • Removal of rural poverty.
  • Abolition of intermediaries.
  • Tenancy reforms.
  • Increasing agricultural productivity.
  • Consolidation of land holdings and prevention of land fragmentation.
  • Developing cooperative farming.
  • To ensure social equality through economic parity.
  • Tribal protection by ensuring their traditional land is not taken over by outsiders.
  • Land reforms were also for non-agricultural purposes like development and manufacturing

Zamindari Abolition Acts

Initially, when these acts were passed in various states, they were challenged in the courts as being against the right to property enshrined in the Indian Constitution. So, amendments were passed in the Parliament to legalise the abolition of landlordism. By 1956, Zamindari abolition acts were passed in many states. As a result of this, about 30 lakh tenants and share-croppers acquired ownership rights over a total of 62 lakh acres of land all over the country.

Land Ceilings Act

Land ceiling refers to fixing a cap on the size of landholding a family or individual can own. Any surplus land is distributed among landless people like tenants, farmers, or agricultural labourers.

Tenancy reforms

This focused on three areas:

  1. Rent regulation
  2. Tenure security
  3. Conferring ownership to tenants

Land policy formulation through the planning period (Five Year Plans)

Plan PeriodChief IssuePolicy Thrust
First Plan 1951 – 56Increase area under cultivation. Community Development networks to take care of village commons.Increase land under cultivation. Rights to tenants to cultivate land. Abolition of intermediaries.
Second Plan 1956 – 61Agriculture mostly dependent on rains alone. Low land productivity.Soil conservation. First phase of land reform implementation. Irrigation development.
Third Plan 1961 – 66Food security concern. Cultivable wasteland to be cultivated. Including all regions into growth.Intensive area development programme adopted for selected districts. Soil surveys.
Fourth Plan 1969 – 74Food security concern. Minimum dietary requirements to be met. Incentives for cultivating food crops. Technical efficiency.Irrigation and soil conservation in dryland regions. Technological changes. Second phase of land reforms with land ceiling acts and consolidation of holding.
Fifth Plan 1974 – 79Problems of degradation. Drought-prone areas.Drought-prone area development. Desert area development programmes. Soil conservation. Dry farming.
Sixth Plan 1980 – 85Underutilization of land resources. Drought-prone areas.Land and water management programme under drought-prone area programme in select areas.
Seventh Plan 1985 – 90Soil erosion. Land degradation. Deforestation. Degradation of forest lands.Soil and water conservation. Prevention of land degradation. Wastelands Development programmes.
Eighth Plan 1992 – 97Dryland and rain-fed areas needing attention. Degradation of land is irrigated command areas.Watershed approach. Soil conservation combined with watershed programmes. Agro-climatic regional planning approach incorporated.
Ninth Plan 1997 – 2002Land degradation. Integrating Watershed Development Programme across various components. Gap between potentials and actual crop yields need to be bridged. Need for a long-term policy document.Bringing underutilized land under cultivation. Management of wastelands. Maintenance of village commons. Decentralized land management system. Panchayati Raj institutions to manage the village lands. Rethinking on land legislation.

Outcomes of Land Reforms

  • Abolition of middlemen like landlords
The powerful class of Zamindars and Jagirdars cease to exist. This reduced the exploitation of peasants who now became owners of the land they tilled. This move was vehemently opposed by the Zamindars who employed many means to evade the law. They registered their own land under their relatives’ names. They also shuffled tenants around different plots of land so that they wouldn’t acquire incumbency rights.

  • Land ceiling
With a cap on the size of landholding, an individual/family could hold equitable distribution of land was possible to an extent. With only landlord abolition and no land ceiling, the land reforms would not have been at least partially successful. Land ceiling ensured that the rich farmers or higher tenants did not become the new avatar Zamindars.

  • Land possession
Land is a source of not just economic income but also social standing. Land reforms made it mandatory to have records of holdings, which was not the case previously. It is also compulsory to register all tenancy arrangements.

  • Increased productivity
More land came under cultivation and since tillers themselves became the landowners, productivity increased.

Land reforms were largely successful in the states of West Bengal and Kerala because of the political will of the left-wing governments to implement them efficiently. There was a sort of revolution in these places in terms of landholding patterns and ownership, and also the condition of peasants. The backing slogan was ‘land to the tiller’. In Jammu and Kashmir also, there was partial success in the redistribution of land to landless labourers.
 
India as the next China is something that Indians want

We need to see more on their Q4 2022 economic growth to see if that is really the case. India will likely keep growing at 5 % and surely their economy will become quite big. I see their previous hight growth is more related to low base effect since their economy was plung at negative 7.7 % in 2020 due to Covid, there will be 2 years high growth to compensate that plung in growth. Something that is similar like Malaysia. This Q4 2022 that will be released in late February will be quite important to see India real economic future growth. Just hold your breath.....

India GDP Q3 Growth LIVE Updates: GDP growth slows to 4.4 per cent in Q3, FY23 GDP growth estimated at 7%; FY22 GDP growth rate revised to 9.1%​



Look like my prediction is better than Indian Economist in IMF and World Bank. You guys need to understand that World Bank Chief Economist for Asia is also Indian.

bloombergquint%2F2018-10%2F72bfc15a-6812-458d-aba8-0294031fc162%2F319126664_1_4.jpg


Bachelor graduate from university in Indonesia vs Phd from US university :partay:
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom