Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[HannibalBarca]

I don't think Turkey would let this issue without an answer. Turkey just can't take millions of refugees to start with. We are also seeing that Syria is being pushed to federal system at least or/and partition. If Turkey let off Idlib all the work Turkey done from the beginning to now in the Syrian conflict would be for nothing. Billions of dollars, sanctions, bad relations with the superpowers etc. I think Turkey would do the needed if large scale offensive past the observation points is being pushed.

My fear, is that TR took a risky gamble, by "hoping/believing" that such problem could be resolved by diplomacy via RU influence in Syria.
Imo, since the past year...Such things seems to work nicely and therefore put too many eggs in the same basket... But nowadays, since the End of the afrin op, we begun to see such tactics losing momentum, whatever with "Unaffiliated militia" openly fighting against TR, or the Tel Rifaat scenario, or the Inside jobs in Idlib and Jarablus region or the many incursion by SAA and affiliate along the southern Idlib border...

RU, can't maintain her grip as firmly as before, many voices arise about this TR-RU relationship and even Hardcore SAA militia, like the Tiger Forces, who are the most loyal Pro-RU groups started to voice their concern and wish to "advance" on Idlib and drive out "Terrorist and TR invaders".

TR is also internationally corned, as you said, she made too much sacrifices, that push her to maintain a relationship with few powers that still accept her voice, like RU per exemple in this conflict.
So, the future will tell us, How TR will manage to answer her own "choices"... Will she also sacrifice a bit of Relationship with RU for her "Syria zones" or will she concede something to keep the link...

But, tbh, Whatever her choice, she could lose a lot.

 

[kartal1]

My fear, is that TR took a risky gamble, by "hoping/believing" that such problem could be resolved by diplomacy via RU influence in Syria.
Imo, since the past year...Such things seems to work nicely and therefore put too many eggs in the same basket... But nowadays, since the End of the afrin op, we begun to see such tactics losing momentum, whatever with "Unaffiliated militia" openly fighting against TR, or the Tel Rifaat scenario, or the Inside jobs in Idlib and Jarablus region or the many incursion by SAA and affiliate along the southern Idlib border...

RU, can't maintain her grip as firmly as before, many voices arise about this TR-RU relationship and even Hardcore SAA militia, like the Tiger Forces, who are the most loyal Pro-RU groups started to voice their concern and wish to "advance" on Idlib and drive out "Terrorist and TR invaders".

TR is also internationally corned, as you said, she made too much sacrifices, that push her to maintain a relationship with few powers that still accept her voice, like RU per exemple in this conflict.
So, the future will tell us, How TR will manage to answer her own "choices"... Will she also sacrifice a bit of Relationship with RU for her "Syria zones" or will she concede something to keep the link...

But, tbh, Whatever her choice, she could lose a lot.

And in which other basket we can put our eggs? No major force would bomb Turkish positions in Syria. If anyone posses such a high risk it will be dealt accordingly like the rats from the NDF who died in Afrin. There are international deals which have to be respected. If they are not respected then there is no reason for Turkey also to respect those deals so MANPADs and heavy and high tech weapons could suddenly enter Idlib and cruise missiles could start flying towards Damascus. I am sure that also other forces would enjoy and enter the show.

 

[HannibalBarca]

And in which other basket we can put our eggs? No major force would bomb Turkish positions in Syria. If anyone posses such a high risk it will be dealt accordingly like the rats from the NDF who died in Afrin. There are international deals which have to be respected. If they are not respected then there is no reason for Turkey also to respect those deals so MANPADs and heavy and high tech weapons could suddenly enter Idlib and cruise missiles could start flying towards Damascus. I am sure that also other forces would enjoy and enter the show.

TR will not be bombed or even touched, that's for sure. But what if NDF and co... choose to push the lines and go against FSA and/or HTS forces? Will TR be able to help in anyway? Will they be able to get a deal with RU for airstrikes? Will they engage a TR armed force who will fight in the ground hand in hand with whoever force under attack (HTS or FSA or even both)?
Then come RU position... Can RU gamble their influence by "Allowing" TR movement in the Air per exemple? or closing Their eyes to a TR/FSA counter-offensive on the De-escalation border?

Whatever the scenario, TR will have to make a choice, and whatever the choice, she will equally lose in the bargain.

 

[kartal1]

TR will not be bombed or even touched, that's for sure. But what if NDF and co... choose to push the lines and go against FSA and/or HTS forces? Will TR be able to help in anyway? Will they be able to get a deal with RU for airstrikes? Will they engage a TR armed force who will fight in the ground hand in hand with whoever force under attack (HTS or FSA or even both)?
Then come RU position... Can RU gamble their influence by "Allowing" TR movement in the Air per exemple? or closing Their eyes to a TR/FSA counter-offensive on the De-escalation border?

Whatever the scenario, TR will have to make a choice, and whatever the choice, she will equally lose in the bargain.

If such situation occurs I am sure Turkey would keep its stance. The Idlib area is the center of the opposition. It is both the place in which the refugees will return and also the future of Turkey's influence in future Syria. Idlib is not a lose that Turkey can just accept like that.

Lets say military operation against HTS occurs. SAA rogue elements use the opportunity and start military operation against Idlib. Till where are they going to push? The observation points are put not so far away from each other. Whole fresh army in Turkey is ready to give support to our forces there. Also in their goals both HTS and FSA are rebel factions. If the situation is bad enough I am sure that no commander from these factions would want to fight each other while SAA is on the way with large scale offensive. In such situation the Turkish Armed Forces is defending not only its own personnel bu also the whole opposition as an idea and all the people that are living there. I am sure that such defense will gather large international support from the west no matter the bad relations with some countries.

I think that Russia would not want that process to be destroyed and would put a stance in which is urging all sides to stop military actions. If they would limit our air force's freedom of movement over Idlib I think that they would also try to limit the SAA air force there of course with soft influence. If the SAA air forces are not limited we could create situation in which our right of self defense is legit. I don't believe that SAA can push for idlib without Russia's approve. They (Russia) also know that peace in Syria without the opposition is impossible. While there is Turkey with open borders and allies which are ready to support the movements the Syrian opposition will not fall. They started all the process because they know it. This is the best way to solve the crisis. Otherwise only blood and tears would follow.

 

[HannibalBarca]

If such situation occurs I am sure Turkey would keep its stance. The Idlib area is the center of the opposition. it is both the place in which the refugees will return and also the future of Turkey's influence in future Syria. Idlib is not a lose that Turkey can just accept like that.

Lets say military operation against HTS occurs. SAA rogue elements use the opportunity and start military operation against Idlib. Till where are they going to push? The observation points are put not so far away from each other. Whole fresh army in Turkey is ready to give support to our forces there. Also in their goals both HTS and FSA are rebel factions. If the situation is bad enough I am sure that no commander from these factions would want to fight each other while SAA is on the way with large scale offensive. In such situation the Turkish Armed Forces is defending not only its own personnel bu also the whole opposition as an idea and all the people that are living there. I am sure that such defense will gather large international support from the west no matter the bad relations with some countries.

I think that Russia would not want that process to be destroyed and would put a stance in which is urging all sides to stop military actions. If they would limit our air force's freedom of movement over Idlib I think that they would also try to limit the SAA air force there of course with soft influence. If the SAA air forces are not limited we could create situation in which our right of self defense is legit. I don't believe that SAA can push for idlib without Russia's approve. They also know that peace in Syria without the opposition is impossible. While there is Turkey with open borders and allies which are ready to support the movements the Syrian opposition will not fall. They started all the process because they know it.

Yes could also be that road. Let's wait and see

 

[OguzSenturk]

The issue is about our retarded government being pacifist against HTS. The issue is not about Turkey vs SAA, or Turkey vs China, or Turkey vs Russia. They just run for their benefits.

We closed our eyes to HTS while they live and grow, and other regional players took that as a key justification to enlarge their influence. We can take this justification away from them by removing HTS, or let others remove HTS and let others enjoy the influence.

Lets not turn this topic into SAA vs Turkey. They cannot move a finger in Idlib if we don't give them any excuse.

 

[kartal1]

Yes could also be that road. Let's wait and see

Just make dua for us!

 

[Saddam Hussein]

The goal should be for Syria to be restored. Not Turkey trying to **** Syria and get as much of it as possible.

 

[OguzSenturk]

The goal should be for Syria to be restored. Not Turkey trying to **** Syria and get as much of it as possible.

Are you going to take 4 million refugees from Idlib to Iraq? If yes, it's cool for me. If no, we will stay in Idlib.

 

[kartal1]

The issue is about our retarded government being pacifist against HTS. The issue is not about Turkey vs SAA, or Turkey vs China, or Turkey vs Russia. They just run for their benefits.

We closed our eyes to HTS while they live and grow, and other regional players took that as a key justification to enlarge their influence. We can take this justification away from them by removing HTS, or let others remove HTS and let others enjoy the influence.

Lets not turn this topic into SAA vs Turkey. They cannot move a finger in Idlib if we don't give them any excuse.

Just discussing the possibilities brother. There is some logic in the stance about possible rouge elements from SAA try to die past the observation points while the opposition factions are fighting each other But the issue with HTS must be dealt accordingly. Otherwise the crisis is not going to end good for us.

The goal should be for Syria to be restored. Not Turkey trying to **** Syria and get as much of it as possible.

Syria is not only Assad. In Syria there are also other people that want to live freely. We are just discussing from the Turkish point of view and what we can take from the situation.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

Are you going to take 4 million refugees from Idlib to Iraq? If yes, it's cool for me. If no, we will stay in Idlib.

Take the 4 million and send them to Hakkari etc. as part of de-kurdification. Everyone wins

 

[OguzSenturk]

Take the 4 million and send them to Hakkari etc. as part of de-kurdification. Everyone wins

If you look at humans with so called races, then you are racist. Secondly, previous 3.5 million syrian refugees created huge unemployment, economic and social disaster in Turkey, crime rates increased significantly. So no thanks, we don't have economical power to feed and educate 7.5million refugees.

If you are willing to take those 7.5million refugees from us and Idlib, we will happily leave Idlib. Just let us know ^^

 

[kartal1]

Take the 4 million and send them to Hakkari etc. as part of de-kurdification. Everyone wins

Why don't you take them to Iraqi Kurdistan? "For de-Kurdification" just sayin...

 

[Saddam Hussein]

Why don't you take them to Iraqi Kurdistan? "For de-Kurdification" just sayin...

that's a good idea

 

[kartal1]

that's a good idea

Indeed