Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[Targon]

I love Turkey and support Turkey

But I don't understand what kind of mind is planning this operation. If you are not moving fast, you should at least block the supply lines. You should surround them. You have left them easy supply lines via Regime lines.

You are sitting their and doing what? What does capturing a few peaks mean? Just exposing your forces to easy ambush, while you yourself are not conducting any ambush type operations.

And moving at a snail pace. This isn't ISIS, they will be constantly and effectively resupplied with weapons, men, logistics, intel. CIA will give them detailed situation briefings and targets of vulnerability.

This situation is absolutely stupid. You aren't even going for their leadership. You could try to bomb their command centers in Afrin city.

Most importantly you must stop the supply chain! Get some experts from the Pakistan Army, I am sure they will tell you that simply capturing peaks, that too at the speed of a snail will not get you anywhere. They will simply move to another location, again get all the leisure and time to dig in, create defenses, bleed some more Turks and again the snail will move. Then they will again move another hill and dig in and wait for the snail to move again.



This is not a mature response. Arms will and has always been sold. If the balkan states don't sell, someone else will. One of the richest people in Bangladesh is an arms dealer, and most of his sales are from and to foreign states.

One can't blame the world for the mistakes they are themselves making. And one cannot win this war with a godless secular Turkey ala Ataturk strategy. Any appeal to Turkish nationalism will itself strengthen the Kurdish need for a separate state.

Those said peaks are important to effectively control the entire region. Look at the topogaphy map. The area around Afrin town is completely flat. When you control those hills effectively, you basically look to them from above, trying to move on flatland.

About the pace, I agree that its a little slow, but I think it was the decision of command. They probably wanted to avoid Turkish casualties, as to fasten the pace you would have to pour masses of Turkish soldiers. Currently its mostly FSA and some escorting commando squads that handle the infantry work.

About reinforcements and supplies. Well, Afrin is said to have up to 10 000 militants, they have well prepared fortifications and atgms under their hands. I mean they already have pretty much everything they need, a few more militans, some more munitions wouldnt change the balance much.

But I agree that pace should be fastened a little.

 

[what]

Those who say IS captured ATGW from Iraqi army are misinformed. Iraq held very few ATGM (only Kornet-E) which were recently supplied by Russia earlier in 2014 before the IS takeover. At summer 2014 these Kornet-E systems were not deployed at the areas taken by IS, in 2015 a small number of these were captured by IS in Baiji and Ramadi. The bulk of their ATGW inventory comes from SAA stockpiles which have huge ATGM stockpiles as well as the shares they received from the 'FSA' before they declared war on them in 2013, prior to that they were co-ruling and sharing arms in the Deir-az zour region.

Most of the ATGM are from Syrian stock plundered, US TOW program for the FSA, from the Balkans and probably some loot from won fights against Shiite militas.

 

[MiG-35-BD]

I think its pretty obvious to everyone that a good portion of the gear, whether ATGMs or other, is made elsewhere but provided / financed by the US of A.

Be that as it may

The red arrows in this map indicates what a conventional invasion would have looked like. But that would be predictable and it is near certain the Kurds with US help planned for such a thrust up the valley.

A hill based strategy from the North still has a long way to go, as it has to come all the way to Naza. The heights near Naza are the dominant feature from the north, and unless those are captured it would be hard to beseige the city.

The blue band represents a strategic outcrop that must be occupied for a conventional thrust up the valley. This area is probably severely infested with YPG.

The valley is obviously where most of the population is concentrated and an ideal place for settling refugees from Turkey.

Maneuver warfare was designed as a way to win wars fast, and save casualties. When your opponent is off-balance and has its supply lines constantly cut off, it is unable to operate effectively.

This isn't a classic guerrilla war yet, there are 10,000 terrorists. Or so is claimed. In reality, probably 2000-3000 are actually properly capable of combat. This means you can draw out large numbers by attacking sensitive places. Then exterminate using the superior firepower. Only when the numbers reach 1000 or less will this become an insurgency.

With settlement of refugees, such an insurgency could be drowned out permanently.

 

[Targon]

One can't blame the world for the mistakes they are themselves making. And one cannot win this war with a godless secular Turkey ala Ataturk strategy. Any appeal to Turkish nationalism will itself strengthen the Kurdish need for a separate state.

Same mistake as late 19th century. When every corner of the empire was burning with the fire of newly introduced nationalism, people thought focusing on Islamism or Ottomanism would solve the problem. What happened? Everyone seceded from the empire and Turks were probably the last people to embrace nationalism.

What exactly you propose? Islamism? The concept of Ummah? Are you planning to win the hearts of those Kurds who are swimming in a pool made out of secular nationalism and radical leftism? You can only fool yourself by trying this. Today, only a minority of Kurds make the religion the primary value in their life, and they are already on Turkey's side, they have always been.

Nationalism in Turkey is needed because we are diverse, both in ethnic background, in beliefs, in cultures, in political stances. It should not reach the levels of radical nationalism, the respect to diversity should exist. But withou nationalism we will get fractured.

 

[Khagan1923]

https://twitter.com/x/status/960128077102755840

I thought the US was gonna cut support for those who try this? Hmm did the US lie again and even gave them those ATGMs? Nah can't be the US never lies.

BTW every truck entering Afrin should be bombed by drones.

 

[T-Rex]

Right now Turkey's existence as a unified state is at risk by her once closest ally. YPG aka PKK is just a tool of that Machiavellian empire. Ever since Erdogan began implementing an independent foreign policy that so-called ally covertly put Turkey on its cross-hair. The coup attempt brought everything out in the open. Now the greatest challenge before Turkey is to preserve her unity while neutralizing that Machiavellian power around Turkey's borders. Islamist ideology or nationalism, Turkey should embrace whatever helps to attain that objective.

 

[Glass]

https://twitter.com/x/status/960128077102755840

I thought the US was gonna cut support for those who try this? Hmm did the US lie again and even gave them those ATGMs? Nah can't be the US never lies.

BTW every truck entering Afrin should be bombed by drones.

Perfect, now its important to find out whos supplying them.

 

[Khagan1923]

Perfect, now its important to find out whos supplying them.

US and Iran. They came from Manbji, a city where hundreds of american soldiers are supervising the YPG. That should tell you enough. They didn't travel from the east of the River to Afrin. The US is ignoring it in the best case and supporting them in the worst case. And the latter is more likely as many american soldiers have been brainwashed with pkk propaganda for years now. I expect if we attack Manbji and the US orders a retreats that dozens of them will ignore it and stay there. The US wants the op. to fail if it succeeds the next target will be Manbji and they have nothing to offer to us for us not attacking the city. The US is f***** in syria after we take Afrin.

ISIS also is attacking them relentlessly in the east and the YPG can't fight back. If we start a Manbji op. I expect them to shatter into pieces with some groups allying themselves with Assad and some with us and some trying to hold out thinking "pkk stronk!1!1!". ISIS will most likely also push them in the east back some.

 

[Glass]

US and Iran. They came from Manbji, a city where hundreds of american soldiers are supervising the the YPG. That should tell you enough. They didn't travel from the east of the River to Afrin. The US is ignoring it in the best case and supporting them in the worst case. And the latter is more likely as many american soldiers have been brainwashed with pkk propaganda for years now. I expect if we attack Manbji and the US orders a retreats that dozens of them will ignore it and stay there.

Thats true i also believe that turkish forces will kill dozens of americans and afterwards we might go to war with them or they totatlly retreat that will be the outcome.

 

[Khagan1923]

Thats true i also believe that turkish forces will kill dozens of americans and afterwards we might go to war with them or they totatlly retreat that will be the outcome.

That won't be our problem. If the US declares a public retreat and some ignore the order and get killed in Manbji by Turkish soldiers it will open more question for the US. Of course there will be some twisting the story but those people are always there. Most questions will be "Why are american soldiers more loyal to a terror org instead of to their own country?" And that will be box the pentagon won't be able to close. I suspect Mcgurk the terror lover has been brainwashed for years now. The guy is more in syria than his own country for unknown reasons. And was the one who pushed for even more support for the pkk he was also the one who protected them the first time in manbji with organizing patrols with american soldiers.

 

[Glass]

That won't be our problem. If the US declares a public retreat and some ignore the order and get killed in Manbji by Turkish soldiers it will open more question for the US. Of course there will be some twisting the story but those people are always there. Most questions will be "Why are american soldiers more loyal to a terror org instead of to their own country?" And that will be box the pentagon won't be able to close. I suspect Mcgurk the terror lover has been brainwashed for years now.

Its irrelevant what they believe/if they are brainwashed or whatever. They are direclty responsible for terror in turkey and will pay with their blood for all the mischief they have caused.

 

[Endurance]

https://twitter.com/x/status/960125679294713857

 

[HannibalBarca]

https://twitter.com/x/status/960125679294713857

Waiting for RU/ASSad escuse about this... I'm pretty sure it gonna involve some CIA/SpecOp/Mossad/US secret delivery that happen to steal from their own stock and pass from their own Territories... to Afrin...

TR answer could be interesting...if there is any. Which one will they follow... RU escuse or the Truth...

https://twitter.com/x/status/960139215400046592

For those asking... The border btw Rebels and ASSad... is free to pass... you can pass throu' whenever you want it... and whatever you want... just keep those Military uniforms and Armed vehicules behind...

 

[ptldM3]

Waiting for RU/ASSad escuse about this... I'm pretty sure it gonna involve some CIA/SpecOp/Mossad/US secret delivery that happen to pass from their own stock and pass from their own Territories...

Those stockpiles of ATGMs, RPGs and other weapons were almost certainly taken from ISIS by the Kurds. ISIS overran much of Syria and got most of their weapons from Syrian stockpiles. I remember Isis captured tanks, and crates full of machine guns, mortars and many other weapons from Palmyra. Many Syrian military bases and outposts were overran.


People here also forget that the "FSA" and other "rebels" often worked and still work with ISIS and Al-Quida groups; it's the same jihadists trash and the end of the day that commit the same atrocities and often defect from one group to another. In any case this is where some of those weapons come from.

 

[Glass]

There are right now 2 (+1) which supply these weapons. US, Russia and Iran. Now its important to find out who is responisble. MIT now should hopefully track those who are responsible for the latest shipment