That Guy
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
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Realistically, it's not going to happen, and no one should expect it too, even if Ghani ends up in power. The ANA is an entity on it's own, that cares little for what the Afghan government or Afghan people want. It is to this day the Northern Alliance in spirit, so any chance of cooperation between the ANA and PA is bleak.With NATO going home the ANA is going to lose its biggest tool against insurgency, the precision strikes and air intelligence i.e drones.
Hoping that Ashraf Ghani will seek deeper counterinsurgency cooperation with Pakistan and would prove to be a friend unlike Karzai, we should offer ANA the air cover it won't have nor would be able to build anytime soon.
If Kabul agrees, there can be a 'joint' COIN strategy as per which the Afghan and Pakistani SOF can be operated in coordination against mutual threats, since the insurgency is likely to expand.
PAF's F-16C/D Block52+ fleet carries more fuel in Conformal Fuel Tanks which gives it ~30% more range and increased loiter time. PAF also operates UAV which can loiter for 12 hours.
We face a mutual threat from insurgents and drug runners. If Afghanistan is willing to coop, should we extend per request air strikes for ANA or not? - pros and cons?
Stay civil and discuss.
Now, if it did happen, what would be the pros and cons?
pros
-closer cooperation between PA and ANA.
-Lowering of tension.
-Reducing Indian influence within the ANA.
-A boarder and more comprehensive strategy to target militants.
cons
-Pissing off Afghan militants that were (at the very least) indifferent towards Pakistan.
-Giving nationalists in Afghanistan a bigger excuse to target Pakistan (they'll claim Pakistan is interfering in Afghan affairs).
-Afghan Refugees created from PAF strikes may end up becoming a legitimate responsibility of Pakistan (they'll have the higher moral ground).
-Making Afghanistan dependent on Pakistan (economic and military wise, which Pakistan cannot afford).
Now, of course there are just a few examples, it's really more complicated than this, but these are just the basic ones that we should consider.