Iran has a basket of targets which are again divided to targets that pose a offensive capability against Iran or not.
So it has a kind of map on where the highest threat assets are from Irans borders and the amount of them compared to each range.
Raad-500 and Qiam cover the bulk of those threatening assets, while Dezful only a small part, acting as outside theater, tactical fire support for Hezbollah in northern Israel. That's a special case where Hezbollahs own assets are degraded and Iran needs to provide fire support.
After the Dezful we will certainly see a all-carbon casing "Raad-1300" that covers all of Israel and can basically engage any tactical airpower that is able to reach Iran without air refueling.
So in the basket, all threats beyond 1300km from Irans border that remain and pose a threat are 5-10%.
I must remind here that Iran has 2000km Ghadr variants because they operate from mountain bases even east from Tehran, deep inside Iran. Tactical systems such as the Dezful and the future Raad variant would operate directly from border regions because of their small size and solid fuel (and remain survivable).
However the situation for the arsenal and production is not simple:
- Liquid department will argue (and rightfully) with their heavier payloads, lower lifetime costs, nuclear hardened feature. And of course with all the factories set up since 30 years for liquid fuel missile production (ultimately switching production to Khorramshahr).
- Factories producing HSS (steel) will argue that they worked 30 years to create those alloys for Fateh series. Setting up large factories and knowledge on metallurgy that must be preserved. Unless they are offered alternatives such as submarine industry, they will press to keep at least Fateh Mobin, Khalije Fars and Hormuz series in production. Maybe also arguing that high grade carbon fiber production capability will not meet needed material in the coming years.
Awesome analysis as always! You’ve mentioned the production method to be much rationalized as well, compared to dezful. What potential strategic importance does the production have for Iran’s allies? Footprint of production site and logistics of critical components?
Iran has the Sudan experience, where it exported technology and experience and now it is not benefiting it anymore.
So with highest technology it must be careful.
When I said Iran can now spend money on equipping even its tactical missiles with C-C-C nose tips its not because it is easier now, mainly its because it has set up a production line that with higher numbers and automatization allows for a more cost effective production.
What Gen. Hajizadeh is mentioning is IF you have access to high grade carbon fiber and IF you have 20 years of experience and science on that design to create a working all carbon fiber filament casing, then yes the production can be done at a much smaller factory.
However not to underestimate things: the high strength steel needed for the first Fateh was also nothing available on the open market, like the production line of high grade carbon fiber.
Providing closest allies such as the Hezbollah with a production line for the casing and supplying them with raw carbon fiber from Iran as well as all the critical components is what Hajizdadeh meant, obviously the casing is the only large and easier to spot part.
Imagine: a 3-missile off-road TEL of the size of a ordinary truck with 3 pin-point strike Raad-1300, estimated at 3200kg somewhere in the mountainous border regions.
