Why Iran wouldn't last a few days against US

[Mithridates]

then the rest of oil producing countries will enjoy a slight rise in oil prices and Iraqis will watch their economy crumble



Russia and Saudi Arabia alone can fill 5 million gap with pleasure, additional OPEC countries will also jump up in joy as they can once again increase production.



thats not even a measure, Iraqis are not gonna sacrifice their economy for you, and what is them stopping production even supposed to accomplish?

in case of war whole PGCC oilfields are a target, you can see that they are a target even in peace times.

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

then the rest of oil producing countries will enjoy a slight rise in oil prices and Iraqis will watch their economy crumble

Russia and Saudi Arabia alone can fill 5 million gap with pleasure, additional OPEC countries will also jump up in joy as they can once again increase production.

thats not even a measure, Iraqis are not gonna sacrifice their economy for you, and what is them stopping production even supposed to accomplish?

Either way, the kingdom, OPEC’s biggest member, can barely raise output by 1 million bpd to 11 million bpd and even that would be difficult, according to industry analysts who forecast a further oil price rally due to a lack of new supply.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...saudi-arabia-pump-much-more-oil-idUSKBN1JR1HI

The measures are temporary to force change in behaviour from enemies.

By the way.. there will be not much left from saudi oil facilities in case of such aggression towards Iran. Millions of shia will follow the marja, they're obligated and I'm sure our brothers have not forgotten how Iran helped them against ISIS and against separatism in their country. With pleasure they will support us back. You have not much knowledge about the region.
It will accomplish damage to western economies, China, India and it forces them to intervene against US agression.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

Actually Iraq just came out of an eight year war with Iran, wasted alot of resources thus I don't believe they had a well equipped army. Combined that with the US not supplying them with weapons as they did during Iran-Iraq war , Iraq had very little chance at that time.

Well I must add to this, Iraq had a strong military (army and air force) that posed a threat to all countries in the region. Including all of today's regional powers simply given the massive number of weapons tank wise (6000+), air force wise (800+ fighters) etc.

But against a country like the US or Soviet Union back then it wouldn't stand a chance given their superior tech air-force wise making all these ground forces easy targets in the open deserts between Kuwait and Iraq. Iraq did inflict some heavy damage on the US on a few occasions with ballistic missile strikes, Iran has better, more and accurate missiles compared to Iraq in 1991. Their air force is no good but the damage they can do comes from their missiles. So unlike Iraq in 1990, they're not as equipped to go out and annex other countries with tanks and massive number of fighter jets, but they can deliver heavy strikes better than Iraq could in 1990.

 

[VEVAK]

@VEVAK could you debunk this?

1st off Any moron that call's Iran's Sejil-2 a Shabab 3 variant can't call himself a defense annalist of any kind on Iranian weapons and military capabilities. Also the notion that Iran only has 1000 missiles is ridiculously hilarious and rather absurd and delusional and stems directly from a lack of knowledge and understanding that Iran's main military retaliatory capabilities over the past 2 decades has been built around Missiles rather than fighters and bombers!

By 2003 most real defense annalists had Iran's stockpile of Shahab-1, 2 & 3 at 500 liquid fuel missiles (which included imported North Korean, Russian and Iranian version) And Israeli claims at that time was that Iran had upwards of 350 missiles capable of reaching Israel alone. Today if I was to claim Iran's +250km missile production is only at 500 missiles per year I would grossly be underestimating Iran capabilities.

Between 2003-2018 if you average Iran's Shahab-3 production and it's single stage replacement at only 50 per year you would have 750 single stage missiles (50 per year is an extremely low figure and Iran's production was likely far beyond that post 2006)
Between 2003-2018 Iran likely produced the Fatteh-110 at rates of 50 to as high as 200 per year but lets just say for the sake of argument they only produced 1000.
Between 2008-2018 Iran produce a 2 stage variant of the Gadr lets say at only 50 per year for a total 500
Between 2010-2018 the Sejil-2 was produced at 50 per year = 400
Between 2010-2018 Qiam at 50 per year = 400

What I'm at 3000 missiles for 2003-2018 alone (And that's an absolute minimum guaranteed) and I still haven't gotten to Iran's Fatteh-313, Zolfaghar, Khoramshahr, Emad, Persian Gulf, Hormoz-1, Hormoz-2, Soumar, Hovayzeh, Ya Ali, Dezful, Raad,.....

So the guy Knows jack!

2nd U.S. does not neighbor Iran and can't bring every weapon it has and all it's troops +10,000km way to our region in a war against Iran! And we are not talking about Iran invading the U.S. so a 1-1 military comparison is frankly absurd! And of course the U.S. military is much more powerful than Iran of that there is no doubt but they were also far more powerful than Vietnam and look what happened there & unlike Iran today the Vietnamese had no real means of retaliation nor the capability to effect 1/4 of the worlds Oil supply or the ability to produce weapons as advance as the weapons Iran is producing today. So short of a wide scale nuclear attack on Iran a U.S. war with Iran will be far from easy! American has been brainwashed in thinking that they won a war against Iraq in a matter of days but in truth the U.S. bombed Iraq for over a decade before an invasion.

3rd U.S. sub's are frankly too big to operate in the Persian Gulf and will easily be discovered so at best they'll remain a good 500km from Iranian territory and of course the U.S. Navy is far more powerful than the Iranian Navy & they can easily use their Airpower to hit and disable all of Iran's frigates and corvettes in the 1st day but what their own Millennial Challenge proved is that projectiles are projectile regardless of how obsolete the platform that's firing is they can still kill you and sink your ships!
Is there any doubt that U.S. Sub's are far superior to Iran's Ghadir subs? NO! But that doesn't change the fact that Iranian 150 tone subs are still armed with Torpedo that can target, hit and disable a +100,000 tone aircraft carrier and within 500km of Iranian shores Iranian midget subs will be a far greater challenge then Iranian Kilo subs because they can go to and hide in places normal sub's can't even approach.
And clearly what the moron who made the video doesn't understand is that Diesel-electric subs are usually more silent and stealthier than Nuclear subs and what makes nuclear powered subs special is their range and clearly it's not like Iran is planning on invading the U.S. for that to matter so clearly the person that made that video is a MORON! And his lack of knowledge doesn't simply stop at Iranian weapons.

Finally, that fool clearly either doesn't know about or has chosen to forget what happened to the most powerful Navy in the world in their own simulated war against Iran in 2002 at a time when Iran's most accurate missile had a CEP of 150 meters at 150km

 

[B.K.N]

US will be demoralized as soon as few of their pigs get slaughtered or loose their legs. The media will do its work. Us is strong, but nothing special or undefeatable.[/QUOTE]

This is what Saddam Hussain once said but everyone knows what happened later

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

US will be demoralized as soon as few of their pigs get slaughtered or loose their legs. The media will do its work. Us is strong, but nothing special or undefeatable.

This is what Saddam Hussain once said but everyone knows what happened later[/QUOTE]
Saddam had no allies, his defence program was not strong as Irans, his army was ruled by fear and did not fight, geography of Iraq is flat.

Iran has plenty of war experienced allies, has a defence program, army and irgc are not ruled by fear and are much more motivated to fight. Some of them or ideologically motivated and believe in a cause. Iran is mountanious. Iran is able to mobilize 1-2 million fighters.

 

[B.K.N]

This is what Saddam Hussain once said but everyone knows what happened later

Saddam had no allies, his defence program was not strong as Irans, his army was ruled by fear and did not fight, geography of Iraq is flat.

Iran has plenty of war experienced allies, has a defence program, army and irgc are not ruled by fear and are much more motivated to fight. Some of them or ideologically motivated and believe in a cause. Iran is mountanious. Iran is able to mobilize 1-2 million fighters.[/QUOTE]

Technology wins not emotions or 1_2 million fighters

 

[Arminkh]

If asymmetrical warfare means guerrilla war than it would be Iranians vs Iranians

No, asymmetrical war means engaging a stronger force in a way to plain the fields and render the stronger army advantages useless. Guerilla war is a simple example in which the stronger army is attached in areas and by means where it can not fully use its heavy equipment. Vietnam won the war this way. They hid in their jungles where US tanks and armored vehicles were useless and forced Americans to fight with their guns and at best with limited air support.

In case of Iran same principle applies but it is more sophisticated. For example, Iran knows its navy is no match for US navy. Instead it uses fast attack boats and Anti ship ballistic missiles that can be as effective as a full blow navy while there really is no navy for US to attack US ships are not designed to counter fast attack boats.

Same goes for use of very accurate ballistic missiles instead of airforce where again Iran knows it can never have an advantage. Instead it uses ballistic missiles to attack strategic targets far from its borders without even flying a single jet which now significantly renders US airforce useless as they can deter an air raid but they cannot deter an incoming ballistic missile salvo.

This is what I mean by asymmetric warfare.

 

[GWXP]

1) one can't compare Iraq of 1991/2003 with Iran----because Iraqi military in 1991 was designed for POSITIONAL WARFARE and its command and control and supplies were extremely vulnerable to US air power. Once US established air superiority, it used its air power to easily paralyze Iraqi army's supply and command and control before US ground force attacked.

If Iraqi military was designed in a different manner, war in 1991 could have been different. (One example is how ISIS tactics allowed them to survive US air strikes).

War with Iran will look like war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Hezbollah was prepared for a war with a country that enjoys full air superiority. As a result Israeli air strikes and artillery were extremely ineffective and when Israeli ground forces invaded Lebanon, they were stopped by anti-tank missiles and Hezbollah infantry force.

2) USA can't invade Iran because of its size and terrain.

In 2003 to invade Arabic part of Iraq that had a population of 20mln people, US required 250.000 troops and Donald Rumsfeld claimed it is not enough, (even despite intelligence estimated showed that there will be no resistance from Iraqis).

Iran is 4 times bigger in terms of population and several times bigger in terms of territory.

If 250k troops are required for invading a 20mln country, then to invade 80mln Iran you will need 1mln troops. More realistic estimates claim 1,5-2mln troops are needed to occupy such a big country like Iran. These resources are beyond US capabilities.

Also, USA military spending on Iraqi occupation was 150bln$ a year,(even despite virtually no resistance against American forces).

Based on this number, we can estimate that to invade Iran --military spending will be 800bln$ and more realistically 1-1,5 trln a year.

US WILL GO BANKRUPT! US simply has no money and resources to occupy such a big country like Iran (for this they will have to mobilize huge portion of their population and economy and go to WWII style total war).

Also, US military is designed for war in Europe and is effective in a flat terrain of Iraq. But Iran is a mountainous country. Armored brigades and divisions are ineffective in a mountainous terrain. Mountains are hell for invader and a paradise for defender.

It will be very difficult for US forces to penetrate the mountains and supply its forces, while Iran will easily defend its territory and ambush supply convoys. Every single hill will be turned into a fortress.

Mountain war is an infantry war and this is where Iran has advantage, because its military is specially designed for this kind of warfare --war in a mountainous terrain against an enemy that has technological superiority.

Conclusion is that US can't occupy Iran, but it can make a limited invasion occupying Khuzestan province and islands in the Persian Gulf, (and later trade to return them for peace). But for invading Khuzestan US will need to create a spearhead and amassing troops takes a lot of time.

3) US calculates that if it will attack Iran, 200.000 troops Iran has near the border with Iraq will attack American forces in Kuwait and oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia.

So for protecting Kuwait, US will have to bring its own ground force to the region and the deployment process will take 5-6 month---a LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

Probably Iran will not repeat Saddam's mistake and wait for 6 month watching how Americans deploy forces. Maybe Iran will use its large ground force to strike first.

Also 10 years ago there were rumors that if US starts bringing large forces to the region, Iran planned to sink its own oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz to block it and paralyze US deployment.


4) To attack Iran, US will rely on its air power which was extremely effective against Iraq in 1991 and will be ineffective against Iran today (just like against Hezbollah in 2006).

US will bring 1600 fighter aircrafts and its support infrastructure to the 30 airfields of Saudi Arabia and these aircrafts will be parked like this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_...15E_parked_during_Operation_Desert_Shield.jpg

These aircrafts will become an ideal target for hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles with cluster munitions.

5) Even is US manages to deploy its forces, the main phase of war will last for 2-3 days.

During the first 3 days, a) Iran will launch all of its ballistic missiles and damage US air force and oil infrastructure/water supply infrastructure in Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/UAE b) Iranian navy will lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz c) Iranian anti-ship missiles will destroy oil tankers in the Gulf, possibly oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

By the 10th day of war---Iranian navy and air force will be destroyed, but it will be TOO LATE----Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, oil tankers will be sunk, ports and oil infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula will be damaged/destroyed.

It will take 1-3 days to destroy oil infrastructure of the region and it will take many months to restore it and resume oil traffic.

6) Shia rebellion in Saudi Arabia will do even more damage to oil infrastructure of the region and create permanent instability that will keep oil price high.

pro-Iranian militia in Iraq can paralyze oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwaiti oil infrastructure is vulnerable not only to Iranian missiles but also to Iranian ground force.

And even if Strait of Hormuz is reopened---a single anti-ship missile launched at oil supertanker can block the Strait one more time.

Persian Gulf supplies 25% of world's oil and 50% of oil exported by sea.

If the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, oil price will skyrocket---this will generate inflation and physical deficit of oil in the world---stock markets will crash, banks and investors will lose their money and will go bankrupt, business will default on debt generating a debt crises and recession.

And who will be blamed for a massive economic crises?--US president! Congress will blame the President for starting illegal war of aggression without authorization of Congress---a war that made serious damage to US economy and welfare of American people----a war that damaged interests of United States----President will be impeached.....

In short:

1) US air force can attack Iran---but US can't invade Iran

2) in the first day of war Iran will lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, launch ballistic missile at oil terminals in the Arabian peninsula and anti-ship missiles at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf

3) By the 10th day of war Iranian Navy and Air Force will be destroyed but it will be TOO LATE for USA---oil infrastructure will be destroyed and oil supply will stall.

4) it will take months to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rebuild oil infrastructure of the region and until then global economy will collapse---US president will be impeached for the damage he has done

5) Instability in Shia regions of Saudi Arabia will become permanent keeping oil supply at risk and oil price high

 

[gambit]

In short:

1) US air force can attack Iran---but US can't invade Iran

2) in the first day of war Iran will lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, launch ballistic missile at oil terminals in the Arabian peninsula and anti-ship missiles at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf

3) By the 10th day of war Iranian Navy and Air Force will be destroyed but it will be TOO LATE for USA---oil infrastructure will be destroyed and oil supply will stall.

4) it will take months to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rebuild oil infrastructure of the region and until then global economy will collapse---US president will be impeached for the damage he has done

5) Instability in Shia regions of Saudi Arabia will become permanent keeping oil supply at risk and oil price high

Before I received orders to deploy to Desert Storm, I read pretty much identical 'predictions' about Iraq, especially about the oil prices and global economy. I doubt you were borne at the time of Desert Storm, and I doubt you have the necessary relevant education and experience in global finance and economy to know what you are talking about.

 

[hasnainfirst]

@VEVAK could you debunk this?

This rant was probably playing Call of Duty and he thought why not take a brake , make a youtube vid and portray US as some kinda Ghost force which can conquer any Country no matter what .....

 

[Sina-1]

1) one can't compare Iraq of 1991/2003 with Iran----because Iraqi military in 1991 was designed for POSITIONAL WARFARE and its command and control and supplies were extremely vulnerable to US air power. Once US established air superiority, it used its air power to easily paralyze Iraqi army's supply and command and control before US ground force attacked.

If Iraqi military was designed in a different manner, war in 1991 could have been different. (One example is how ISIS tactics allowed them to survive US air strikes).

War with Iran will look like war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Hezbollah was prepared for a war with a country that enjoys full air superiority. As a result Israeli air strikes and artillery were extremely ineffective and when Israeli ground forces invaded Lebanon, they were stopped by anti-tank missiles and Hezbollah infantry force.

2) USA can't invade Iran because of its size and terrain.

In 2003 to invade Arabic part of Iraq that had a population of 20mln people, US required 250.000 troops and Donald Rumsfeld claimed it is not enough, (even despite intelligence estimated showed that there will be no resistance from Iraqis).

Iran is 4 times bigger in terms of population and several times bigger in terms of territory.

If 250k troops are required for invading a 20mln country, then to invade 80mln Iran you will need 1mln troops. More realistic estimates claim 1,5-2mln troops are needed to occupy such a big country like Iran. These resources are beyond US capabilities.

Also, USA military spending on Iraqi occupation was 150bln$ a year,(even despite virtually no resistance against American forces).

Based on this number, we can estimate that to invade Iran --military spending will be 800bln$ and more realistically 1-1,5 trln a year.

US WILL GO BANKRUPT! US simply has no money and resources to occupy such a big country like Iran (for this they will have to mobilize huge portion of their population and economy and go to WWII style total war).

Also, US military is designed for war in Europe and is effective in a flat terrain of Iraq. But Iran is a mountainous country. Armored brigades and divisions are ineffective in a mountainous terrain. Mountains are hell for invader and a paradise for defender.

It will be very difficult for US forces to penetrate the mountains and supply its forces, while Iran will easily defend its territory and ambush supply convoys. Every single hill will be turned into a fortress.

Mountain war is an infantry war and this is where Iran has advantage, because its military is specially designed for this kind of warfare --war in a mountainous terrain against an enemy that has technological superiority.

Conclusion is that US can't occupy Iran, but it can make a limited invasion occupying Khuzestan province and islands in the Persian Gulf, (and later trade to return them for peace). But for invading Khuzestan US will need to create a spearhead and amassing troops takes a lot of time.

3) US calculates that if it will attack Iran, 200.000 troops Iran has near the border with Iraq will attack American forces in Kuwait and oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia.

So for protecting Kuwait, US will have to bring its own ground force to the region and the deployment process will take 5-6 month---a LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

Probably Iran will not repeat Saddam's mistake and wait for 6 month watching how Americans deploy forces. Maybe Iran will use its large ground force to strike first.

Also 10 years ago there were rumors that if US starts bringing large forces to the region, Iran planned to sink its own oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz to block it and paralyze US deployment.


4) To attack Iran, US will rely on its air power which was extremely effective against Iraq in 1991 and will be ineffective against Iran today (just like against Hezbollah in 2006).

US will bring 1600 fighter aircrafts and its support infrastructure to the 30 airfields of Saudi Arabia and these aircrafts will be parked like this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_...15E_parked_during_Operation_Desert_Shield.jpg

These aircrafts will become an ideal target for hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles with cluster munitions.

5) Even is US manages to deploy its forces, the main phase of war will last for 2-3 days.

During the first 3 days, a) Iran will launch all of its ballistic missiles and damage US air force and oil infrastructure/water supply infrastructure in Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/UAE b) Iranian navy will lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz c) Iranian anti-ship missiles will destroy oil tankers in the Gulf, possibly oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

By the 10th day of war---Iranian navy and air force will be destroyed, but it will be TOO LATE----Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, oil tankers will be sunk, ports and oil infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula will be damaged/destroyed.

It will take 1-3 days to destroy oil infrastructure of the region and it will take many months to restore it and resume oil traffic.

6) Shia rebellion in Saudi Arabia will do even more damage to oil infrastructure of the region and create permanent instability that will keep oil price high.

pro-Iranian militia in Iraq can paralyze oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwaiti oil infrastructure is vulnerable not only to Iranian missiles but also to Iranian ground force.

And even if Strait of Hormuz is reopened---a single anti-ship missile launched at oil supertanker can block the Strait one more time.

Persian Gulf supplies 25% of world's oil and 50% of oil exported by sea.

If the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, oil price will skyrocket---this will generate inflation and physical deficit of oil in the world---stock markets will crash, banks and investors will lose their money and will go bankrupt, business will default on debt generating a debt crises and recession.

And who will be blamed for a massive economic crises?--US president! Congress will blame the President for starting illegal war of aggression without authorization of Congress---a war that made serious damage to US economy and welfare of American people----a war that damaged interests of United States----President will be impeached.....

In short:

1) US air force can attack Iran---but US can't invade Iran

2) in the first day of war Iran will lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, launch ballistic missile at oil terminals in the Arabian peninsula and anti-ship missiles at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf

3) By the 10th day of war Iranian Navy and Air Force will be destroyed but it will be TOO LATE for USA---oil infrastructure will be destroyed and oil supply will stall.

4) it will take months to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rebuild oil infrastructure of the region and until then global economy will collapse---US president will be impeached for the damage he has done

5) Instability in Shia regions of Saudi Arabia will become permanent keeping oil supply at risk and oil price high

Great analysis. A conflict would be extremely complex and multidimensional. Chaos is the key word for Iranian planners. Creating havoc everywhere in the region and every way they can. All options are on the table as Americans eloquently put it. Unfortunately a military conflict between Iran and US will mean the entire region burnt and wasted.

 

[GWXP]

And of course Iran should develop nuclear weapons. The idea that you can rely on some promises or treaties guaranteeing peace and security is naive and stupid.

Examples of illegal aggression of USA against Iraq, Lybia, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, ---plots to topple regimes in Syria, North Korea and Iran-- show that these "international laws" worth nothing and the only thing you can rely for your security is nuclear weapons.

Only your own brute force in form of nuclear weapons and ICBMS capable of delivering them to the territory of potential enemy is the best guarantee of your survival.

Before developing nuclear weapons Iran should develop ICBM, because nuclear weapons without means of delivering them to US territory are useless and can only invite preventive strike.

Iran will test ICBM technology by testing large solid fuel SLV in 2022 or 2023....by 2025 Iran will have several ICBMs capable of reaching US territory....by that time Iran will also master IR-6 centrifuge technology and mass produce it and install it in Natanz in large quantities....this will allow Iran to be able to mass produce uranium bombs in short periods of time......And this is the time---around 2025-- when ICBM is ready and nuclear weapon mass production infrastructure is ready---this is the time when Iran should go nuclear.

If US knows that Iran has ICBM that can make an EMP attack it will never conduct a preventive strike....

Even better if Iran secretly purchases 10-15 nuclear weapons from North Korea no matter how expensive it is......A country that has lost a million dead and wounded and suffered a 500bln financial loss during Iran-Iraq war should know the price of security....

Iran should follow example of North Korea and develop a nuclear arsenal and means of delivering nuclear weapons.

Of course Americans can use their influence and try to isolate Iran and impose harsh sanctions---but that is what they are doing even when Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons....

Unlike North Korea, Iran is an important country---important in a sense that Iran is the most powerful country in the world most sensitive and important region---the oil rich Persian Gulf---oil from the Gulf is like a blood spilling through the veins of the global economy......and Iran is the most powerful country of the Gulf...

If Iran develops nuclear weapons it can become more confident and assertive....Iran can confidently threaten to close the Gulf if US impose harsh sanctions......If Iran develops nuclear weapons, US will be forced to talk with Iran politely and gentle if they want to guarantee free flow of oil from the region...

This is what makes Iran different from North Korea---its position in the oil rich Persian Gulf......and nuclear weapons will only boost Iranian position.

At the same time....in the near future....new centers of gravity will develop in China, India, Russia, Turkey and PAX AMERICANA world will be finished and their ability to threaten Iran with isolation will erode....

Before I received orders to deploy to Desert Storm, I read pretty much identical 'predictions' about Iraq, especially about the oil prices and global economy. I doubt you were borne at the time of Desert Storm, and I doubt you have the necessary relevant education and experience in global finance and economy to know what you are talking about.

I try not to develop my own theories because as you said I might lack relevant experience and education.....What I say mostly comes from the US think tank called Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures

The idea that Iran can't be conquered comes from Stratfor analysis---read their article: The Geopolitics of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitics-iran-holding-center-mountain-fortress

In 2011 Stratfor estimated that oil price can go up to 500 dollars per barrel if Iran closes the Strait of hormuz---and of course such a price will generate global recession---and guess who will be blamed?--US president

Comparing Iraq to Iran is like comparing Poland To Russia------Iran is 4 times bigger country.

old video from Stratfor

 

[Ultima Thule]

some hope from Iranian SAM/air defense that bring down some US jets but rest of their army/air force and Navy has no Chance to stand against USN/USAF

 

[YeBeWarned]

It's not even a competition .. only thing Iran can hope for that it won't come to war .