The Iranian Incursion in Context

[Thomas]

Article from STRATFOR

The Iranian Incursion in Context | STRATFOR

The Iranian Incursion in Context
December 21, 2009 | 1629 GMT


Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

A small number of Iranian troops entered Iraq, where they took control of an oil well and raised the Iranian flag Dec. 18. The Iranian-Iraqi border in this region is poorly defined and is contested, with the Iranians claiming this well is in Iranian territory not returned after the Iran-Iraq War. Such incidents have occurred in the past. Given that there were no casualties this time, it therefore would be easy to dismiss this incident, even though at about the same time an Iranian official claimed that Iraq owes Iran about $1 trillion in reparations for starting the Iran-Iraq War.
Related Special Topic Page

* The Iranian Nuclear Game

But what would be fairly trivial at another time and place is not trivial now.
Sending a Message With an Incursion

Multiple sources have reported that Tehran ordered the incident. The Iranian government is aware that Washington has said the end of 2009 was to be the deadline for taking action against Iran over its nuclear program — and that according to a White House source, the United States could extend that deadline to Jan. 15, 2010.

That postponement makes an important point. The United States has treated the Iran crisis as something that will be handled on an American timeline. The way that the Obama administration handled the Afghanistan strategy review suggests it assumes that Washington controls the tempo of events sufficiently that it can make decisions carefully, deliberately and with due reflection. If true, that would mean that adversaries like Iran are purely on the defensive, and either have no counter to American moves or cannot counter the United States until after Washington makes its next move.

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[waraich66]

Iraq should pay 1 trillion USD for attack on Iran for normalization of bilateral relations.

Iran damn care about sanctions , if Israel has right to develop nukes why not Iran has.

US should now stop their double standard agenda.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Iran can't get away with just anything in Iraq, but its obvious to everybody in that region that Iran holds WAY more leverage over Iraq than US ever will.

Iran will continue to leverage the US in Iraq until US gets totally frustrated, or incurs losses that satisfy Iran. Bush going into Iraq in 2003 was so stupid and un-necessary. Biggest blunder of the US in recent times, and troubling that nobody in intelligence or military-planning & advisory along with leadership were not held accountable. 6 years later, Americans are very dis-illusioned with Iraq war --which was a war based on a pack of lies.

To get back on point, the US is paying the cost now. Also, its true, Iraq's military is totally decrepit and obviously can't fight Iran now..

They wouldn't anyways though, since Iran and Iraq are allies --despite this recent action by Iranian.


in the end, this was more of a "poke" towards U.S. --especially at a time when tenders for Iraqi oil digging/refinery rights are taking place.


America still has the "military oversight", for lack of a better word, its still a question of how the US responds because they're still percieved as being the guiding hand behind Iraq's military. As such, when Iran tests Iraqs border like this, what they're really testing (in addition to Iraq) is how much the US will tolerate an adventuresome Iran snaking its control further into Iraq.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

by the way --- Iran is still in luxurious position.


They open their mouthes about 'zionists'; they block a few ships in Hormuz Straights; or they do action like this --- and then the oil prices rise.


Oil rises above $73 on Iran-Iraq tension | Reuters

 

[S-2]

"by the way --- Iran is still in luxurious position...then the oil prices rise."

Not so. Iran IMPORTS much of its refined petroleum products, to include gasoline. It would face the cost increases here that everybody else does.

 

[kidwaibhai]

I dont understand why the Iraq's are sitting there and doing nothing. They have the US military backing them up they can easily push the iranians back.

 

[Thomas]

"by the way --- Iran is still in luxurious position...then the oil prices rise."

Not so. Iran IMPORTS much of its refined petroleum products, to include gasoline. It would face the cost increases here that everybody else does.

I could be wrong but I believe there are only 7 gasoline production facilities for them. take them out and and Iran would be far worse hit then the rest of the world. Simply tell them if they try to close the straight of Hormuz that is exactly what will happen.

 

[Thomas]

Iraq should pay 1 trillion USD for attack on Iran for normalization of bilateral relations.

Iran damn care about sanctions , if Israel has right to develop nukes why not Iran has.

US should now stop their double standard agenda.

crippling war reparations don't work. They create resentment that can lead back to nationalism and war. Germany was a case in point. the reparations the Allies demanded of Germany from WWI . helped to create the atmosphere that allowed Hitler to come to power.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

yes i am aware that Iranian import refined from Kuwait; that is due in part to the fact that their refinery infrastructure is old and out-dated (due to sanctions and lack of foreign investment)

as for Iraq --- they should not use this incident to allow US to get involved. I would prefer that U.S. scale back its operations in Persian Gulf. It makes Iranians uneasy, it makes a lot others uneasy.

I think Iran should withdraw its forces....Iraq must rebuild itself and dust off her shoulders

Iran is sitting on 2nd largest petroleum reserves in the world. Aur kya chayai??

 

[Destructlord]

yes i am aware that Iranian import refined from Kuwait; that is due in part to the fact that their refinery infrastructure is old and out-dated (due to sanctions and lack of foreign investment)

Refinery infrastructure is not out-dated, actually Abadan refinery could produce 3x times more in Shah era than it does now! The problem here is growing internal need for energy! We are a developing country therefore we need to keep some oil for ourselves! As I said we have no problem in the refinery section because Iranian National Drilling Company also construct refinery, in fact they have built several oil refinery in Syria and Africa!

The problem is several million old car, which need around 15L for every 100 km! Anyway they're are being replaced and that made many car companies in Iran, specially Iran Khodro and Saipa very rich!

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

well on a side note --despite sanctions and isolation -- Iran has done all it can. They have a good manufacturing industry while other major PGCC countries lack.

Iranian foreign policy is impressive, in the sense that they are focused on an "Iranian-first" agenda. But at the same time they are adodpting a pure isolationist approach, which is not good for Iranian economy.

On one hand, Iranians are claiming this oil well as their own. On the other hand, Occupied Iraq is demanding an end to violation of its sovereignty (which may seem ironic, given the presence of foreign forces there).

And remember that this month ends the Obama's deadline to bring Iran to negotiation tables to talk about their nuclear program, Iraqis say it's their territory, that means that they have probably been moving to that part of Iran, and that forced Iran to send a few troops just to make their presence known.

I seriously doubt that Iran would invade Iraq specially this month, when the whole world is waiting to see what Obama does with Iran.

And besides, it's Muharrem now. Not the time for political games.

 

[Destructlord]

I dont understand why the Iraq's are sitting there and doing nothing. They have the US military backing them up they can easily push the iranians back.

Because Iraq and U.S are well aware that the Fakkah oil-well located in the Dehloran (Khuzestan, Iran) belongs to Iran, anyway I have to disagree with you about being pushed back easily! Because Iranian western borders are highly fortified specially in the southwest.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

was it IRGC involved in takeover of this facility

 

[Destructlord]

was it IRGC involved in takeover of this facility

No actually they were border guards, IRGC is an elite group they won't dispatch them for these trival things!

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

forget oil for food program

try 'Doogh with Mint for Oil' program