Pakistan's economy was deliberately destroyed by Pmln: Dr Ashfaq Hassan

[PakistaniAtBahrain]

They be like, peg the dollar to 100, and consumption based growth rate will be over the moon. No word on how they'll finance that peg,

these politicians and their enablers in the media want the economic situation to become so bad that in the end we have no other options but to eventually trade Islam, Kashmir, and our nukes for prosperity.

PTI needs at least 2 more terms to fix this rotten decayed system, PMLN and PPP have destroyed Pakistans prosperity due to their selfish and greedy motives. The status quo parties need to be destroyed for good..

i am surprised to hear an Indian be so rational.

 

[Abid123]

Lmao at all the patwaris on here. Honestly Imran Khan should rule as a dictator. A country like Pakistan can not work on democracy.

 

[Norwegian]

People should ask media persons to show their skill at correcting the economy by doing a live demonstration of the software below and inputting their numbers.

You are asking way too much from stunted growth Patwaris and their supporters in media.

PTI needs at least 2 more terms to fix this rotten decayed system, PMLN and PPP have destroyed Pakistans prosperity due to their selfish and greedy motives. The status quo parties need to be destroyed for good..

Hear hear. Even Indians agree with Potians

Lmao at all the patwaris on here. Honestly Imran Khan should rule as a dictator. A country like Pakistan can not work on democracy.

Velkommen bror!

 

[VCheng]

Dr Ashfaq Hassan reveals how Nawaz Sharif and Ishaq Dollar mafia deliberately wrecked Pakistani economy from 2017 onwards.

Okay, fine. We get it. The previous governments destroyed the economy.

But, the real question here is, coming on to nearly three years later, what has the present government done to fix the economy? They have a long ways to deliver what they promised and time is running short.

(And please, do not repeat the same canned slides and claims that have been posted 53,000 times.)

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues? It is high time to move on from blaming the previous governments.

 

[Norwegian]

Okay, fine. We get it. The previous governments destroyed the economy.

But, the real question here is, coming on to nearly three years later, what has the present government done to fix the economy? They have a long ways to deliver what they promised and time is running short.

(And please, do not repeat the same canned slides and claims that have been posted 53,000 times.)

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues? It is high time to move on from blaming the previous governments.

It's being fixed now

 

[PakistaniAtBahrain]

Okay, fine. We get it. The previous governments destroyed the economy.

But, the real question here is, coming on to nearly three years later, what has the present government done to fix the economy? They have a long ways to deliver what they promised and time is running short.

(And please, do not repeat the same canned slides and claims that have been posted 53,000 times.)

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues? It is high time to move on from blaming the previous governments.

you think the economy was fixable in 3 years?

 

[Norwegian]

you think the economy was fixable in 3 years?

Of course. Just use a magic wand.

 

[The Accountant]

Okay, fine. We get it. The previous governments destroyed the economy.

But, the real question here is, coming on to nearly three years later, what has the present government done to fix the economy? They have a long ways to deliver what they promised and time is running short.

(And please, do not repeat the same canned slides and claims that have been posted 53,000 times.)

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues? It is high time to move on from blaming the previous governments.

Check current account figures which is positive. Check primary budget deficit figure. Which is positive after 17 years. Which means our government is higher than its expenses

 

[VCheng]

Check current account figures which is positive. Check primary budget deficit figure. Which is positive after 17 years. Which means our government is higher than its expenses

Those figures may be better because of the drop in imports due to COVID, and not due to any plan or policy being effected. Besides, the economy has many aspects, most of them interlinked. I find it merely amusing that no one paid attention to the important stuff:

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues?

The IMF program is still off track. The circular debt is still rising. Resurgence of imports and higher oil prices will affect the BoP and inflation statistics again once the global economy recovers. The stability of the PKR thus remains in doubt. It was given a temporary reprieve only when PMIK changed his decision and sought IMF relief.

So, rather than tout temporary figures that are explainable by other factors rather than plans, I ask again: Isn't three years long enough for at least some effective plans to be implemented? How much longer is needed to see the outlines of actual economic strategy? Time is running short till the end of the current term to actually start delivering results.

you think the economy was fixable in 3 years?

At least we should be seeing some effective plans by now, please see above.

Of course. Just use a magic wand.

Or better yet, some sound thinking based on economic principles would be a start. Sacrificing black goats doesn't do much in these matter, nor does wishing for a magic wand.

 

[The Accountant]

Those figures may be better because of the drop in imports due to COVID, and not due to any plan or policy being effected. Besides, the economy has many aspects, most of them interlinked. I find it merely amusing that no one paid attention to the important stuff:



The IMF program is still off track. The circular debt is still rising. Resurgence of imports and higher oil prices will affect the BoP and inflation statistics again once the global economy recovers. The stability of the PKR thus remains in doubt. It was given a temporary reprieve only when PMIK changed his decision and sought IMF relief.

So, rather than tout temporary figures that are explainable by other factors rather than plans, I ask again: Isn't three years long enough for at least some effective plans to be implemented? How much longer is needed to see the outlines of actual economic strategy? Time is running short till the end of the current term to actually start delivering results.


At least we should be seeing some effective plans by now, please see above.


Or better yet, some sound thinking based on economic principles would be a start. Sacrificing black goats doesn't do much in these matter, nor does wishing for a magic wand.

Why there is primary surplus in budget. It is achieved first time after 2004? Primary surplus was very difficult given the low tax collection. Isnt it an achievement ?

Imports were getting down even before covid. Ok lets assume this is due to covid thwn export should also be down due to covid. Why exports r increasing ?

How textile start performing ?

 

[VCheng]

Why there is primary surplus in budget. It is achieved first time after 2004? Primary surplus was very difficult given the low tax collection. Isnt it an achievement ?

Imports were getting down even before covid. Ok lets assume this is due to covid thwn export should also be down due to covid. Why exports r increasing ?

How textile start performing ?

It may be instructive to look at the actual data:

 

[The Accountant]

It may be instructive to look at the actual data:

View attachment 715229






View attachment 715230

Monthly variation is not something abnormal. Get a five year trend.

Even if u take dec figure and project it to full year its increasing.

 

[VCheng]

Monthly variation is not something abnormal. Get a five year trend.

View attachment 715247

Even if u take dec figure and project it to full year its increasing.

So let's look at the figures. The BoT remains negative for the last five years at about 3,600,000 or about 300,000 MPKR per month, which is what October and November are showing as well, give or take. And the December figures, not shown, if extrapolated for a whole year, would lead to a positive BoT? That is mighty thin ice, statistically speaking. As you said yourself, monthly variation is not something abnormal, negative or positive.

Plotting out the performance since 1957, and zooming in on the last five years shows nothing that would be out of the ordinary for the long terms trends, all the claims notwithstanding.

It also remains illustrative that the real questions posed remain unanswered, as expected:

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues?

 

[The Accountant]

So let's look at the figures. The BoT remains negative for the last five years at about 3,600,000 or about 300,000 MPKR per month, which is what October and November are showing as well, give or take. And the December figures, not shown, if extrapolated for a whole year, would lead to a positive BoT? That is mighty thin ice, statistically speaking. As you said yourself, monthly variation is not something abnormal, negative or positive.

Plotting out the performance since 1957, and zooming in on the last five years shows nothing that would be out of the ordinary for the long terms trends, all the claims notwithstanding.

It also remains illustrative that the real questions posed remain unanswered, as expected:

The real important questions here are: IMF program reinstitution, resolution of circular debt, balancing BoP and inflation, and the stability of the PKR. Where are the plans effective in dealing with these issues?

You were showing a decrease of 1 month and i counter it by showing a consistent increase of 2 years. So trend is visible. Lets take these point 1 by 1.

PKR stability: correct valuation of rupee which resulted in significant reduction of unnecesaary import and import substitution and hence reduction of current account deficit. On the other hand alot of work is being done on export increase which includes textile packages, IT special economic zone in isb, other special economic zones, expected new car policy (my colleagues are in contact with government so i know the onsights), ecommerce policy(i myself is part of team from business side whereas we r working with state bank and ministry of commerce to increase exports). Today my colleagues have planned meeting with ministry of commerce of another country for export of vehicles to Pakistan facilitated by government of pakistan as well.

There r lot of efforts being done. Path is set and we have to increase the momentum. U can see currency is stabilized since start of this financial year.

Inflation, yes this is an issue hurting common people. This is the area where significant efforts r required but till to date nothing has worked. So i agree with u as far as inflation is concern.

Circulation debt has three issues at it core. Ineffecient distribution system. Buying expensive elctricity and selling it cheap. And dependence on oil based power plants. Work being done includes, after 6 decades 2 mega Dams are actually being constructed rather than just ribbon cutting. This will reduce cost. Renegotiation on pricing with IPPs and increase in prices (which will hurt but in short therm there is no option). LNG dergilization means power plant can import lng at will so any inefeciency on that part will also be eliminated. This is a lot of progress but it will take time to take the effect.

IMF program. I dont know what do u mean by this. However, IMF program is a result of budget deficit. After 16 years this is first time we r having primary surplus. Primary surplus in layman terms means we r having money profit before paying interest and loan. More importantly this is during corona when tax returns are low and government expenses are high due to various packages.

I hope you will read this with open mind and we will have a constructive discussion on facts and figures rather than an emotional argument.

 

[Mav3rick]

Miracle? You call a consumption and debt led growth a miracle ?

How can we discuss anything when you decided to quote one of my posts randomly and out of context?

To discuss, you will need to view Dar's performance independently, by remaining politically neutral, and not through the PRISM of PTI's false narrative which has dug us into this financial doom.