CivilianSupremacy
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I try it a second time! The J-10C is NO option and the moment Turkey orders that type, no F-16 will be flying any more and Kaan is dead at least with the interim engines!
I think Turkey going for J-10Cs is unlikely too. But for some different reasons than you pointed out. Turkey has always used western platforms and mostly F-16s in last 3-4 decades or so. Its far better for them if they get F-16 block 70s for which they were lobbying for already (not sure if they still are lobbying for it). Going for eastern tech (J-10C) a new platform for them, trainings, logistics, ammunition, everything changes that will be a last resort.
So, Its more of a technical reasons and not entirely just the political reasons. I disagree with your point that no Turkish F-16 will be flying. Any country which has maximum technical / manufacturing capabilities around F-16 platform outside US is Turkey. If Iran managed to keep F-14s flying 50 years without any support then Turkey can definitely keep their F-16s flying for rest of their airframe lives. However, Kaan engine embargo definitely could definitely delay Kaan's production. However, I doubt US / NATO can afford to alienate Turkey any further. Its unlikely that they'd kill the support for their existing fleet. For now, Turkey is likely using J-10C as a bargaining chip and if it advances talks on it then perhaps US will approve the sales.
However, nothing is permanent in politics. If relations of US and Turkey reaches to the point where Turkey realizes that it can no longer trust US in military equipment sales then anything can happen.