Pakistan - Turkey (PAC-TAI) Collaboration for NGFA-TFX 5th Gen Aircraft l Updates, News & Discussion

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

@arslank03

Would you bother to explain what prompted you for that reaction?

I am not saying PAF will have total inventory of those fighters. I am talking about additional purchases.

So, in a best case scenario by 2040 and if we assume KAAN will be our 5th gen selection:

- A dozen KAAN
- 40+ additional J-10Cs ( or future versions)
- ~100+ more JF-17s (block 3/4)

If you calculate the cost of above you will understand its more than what we can actually afford. We are still flying nearly 200 (second and third generation) fighter aircrafts and I feel it hilarious when people are assuming that we are going to induct multiple 5th gen fighters and that too in numbers. Hopefully with additional JF-17s and additional squadron of J-10Cs we may be able to replace the 2nd / 3rd gen fighters by 2030. As far as 5th gen platform is concerned, KAAN is not going to be produced before 2030. The first units by 2035 will be for sure for Turkish Air force which needs its badly as they were kicked off from F-35 programme.

We just need to be realistic. We have to see our economy, our priorities and then we can see a clear picture.

The PAF wouldn't buy any new fighter without committing to 90-150 units (e.g., F-6, Mirage III/5, F-16, and F-7). So, on that basis, there's still a lot of work to be done with the J-10CE and JF-17B/B3. IMO, we'll see a total of 90+ J-10CEs and 150+ JF-17B/B3-based fighters.

IMO, the Dragon and Thunder will likely replace all of the PAF's old aircraft moving forward, be it F-7PG, Mirage ROSE, and even JF-17B1/B2s. There's a real 'break' between the B1/B2 and B/B3, with the latter having 3-axis FBW, purpose-built room for AESA radar and internal ECM, etc. Once the airframes reach their 3,000-hour lifespan, you'd have to seriously evaluate if it's worth restoring them OR building new and reaping the benefits of the core advancements within the newer versions.

The PAF's tapping into the KAAN to replace the F-16s and, in turn, develop the maritime, deep strike, and offensive air ops roles from those squadrons (No. 9, No. 11, No. 05, No. 19 and 1-2 more). Basically, form the nucleus for future Swift Retort-type missions. IMO, the PAF would seek 90 KAANs plus a sizable number of stealthy flying-wing UCAVs.

Though important from a conventional deterrence standpoint, these roles aren't critical to the PAF's core mandate of denying India access and control over Pakistani airspace. So, the lack of KAANs doesn't affect anything essential to survival, rather, the J-10CEs, JF-17B/B3s, and SAMs will own those roles.

 

[arslank03]

The PAF wouldn't buy any new fighter without committing to 90-150 units (e.g., F-6, Mirage III/5, F-16, and F-7). So, on that basis, there's still a lot of work to be done with the J-10CE and JF-17B/B3.

IMO, the Dragon and Thunder will likely replace all of the PAF's old aircraft moving forward, be it F-7PG, Mirage ROSE, and even JF-17B1/B2s. The PAF's tapping into the KAAN to replace the F-16s and, in turn, develop the maritime, deep strike, and offensive air ops roles from those squadrons (No. 9, No. 11, No. 05, No. 19 and 1-2 more). Basically, form the nucleus for future Swift Retort-type missions.

Though important from a conventional deterrence standpoint, these roles aren't critical to the PAF's core mandate of denying India access and control over Pakistani airspace. So, the lack of KAANs doesn't affect anything essential to survival, rather, the J-10CEs, JF-17B/B3s, and SAMs will own those roles. And if the KAAN falls through for whatever reason, the PAF will tap into the Chinese J-35/J-21.

we're all very focused on an FGFA but nobody seems to be wondering what the PAFs supporting assets will look like. I wonder what we will do for AEW&C and OECM

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

we're all very focused on an FGFA but nobody seems to be wondering what the PAFs supporting assets will look like. I wonder what we will do for AEW&C and OECM

IMO they might tap Saab again for the Erieye-ER.

 

[arslank03]

IMO they might tap Saab again for the Erieye-ER.

SAAB did present it at ideas this year.

BUT, if the PN is seeking Lineage 1000E for AEW duties as well, the question arises, will they draw on SAAB for the equipment or elsewhere

 

[CivilianSupremacy]

The PAF wouldn't buy any new fighter without committing to 90-150 units (e.g., F-6, Mirage III/5, F-16, and F-7). So, on that basis, there's still a lot of work to be done with the J-10CE and JF-17B/B3.

IMO, the Dragon and Thunder will likely replace all of the PAF's old aircraft moving forward, be it F-7PG, Mirage ROSE, and even JF-17B1/B2s. The PAF's tapping into the KAAN to replace the F-16s and, in turn, develop the maritime, deep strike, and offensive air ops roles from those squadrons (No. 9, No. 11, No. 05, No. 19 and 1-2 more). Basically, form the nucleus for future Swift Retort-type missions.

Though important from a conventional deterrence standpoint, these roles aren't critical to the PAF's core mandate of denying India access and control over Pakistani airspace. So, the lack of KAANs doesn't affect anything essential to survival, rather, the J-10CEs, JF-17B/B3s, and SAMs will own those roles. And if the KAAN falls through for whatever reason, the PAF will tap into the Chinese J-35/J-21.

Yep, I agree that JF-17s and J-10Cs will be in most numbers (as we are going to replace F-7s and Mirages)

However, I have a different view point about KAAN. Considering the very high costs, I don't think PAF can possibly induct these in numbers. Infact I think PAF may even procure more J-10Cs (or its future version) to replace some of older F-16s instead trying to replace all with 5th gen platform. So, if we had 75 F-16s - The replacement may not be 75 KAANs.

Eventually PAF may get additional squadrons of 5th gen fighters but that will take considerable time. In a foreseeable future (1-2 decades) PAF simply cannot replace its F-16s with KAAN. By 2040 most of F-16s could possibly still be flying and we may only have a dozen 5th gen fighters.

However, how future warfare adapts is still a big variable. We'll see further improvement and importance of Unmanned systems and perhaps lesser number of manned fighter jets than usually we used to had.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Yep, I agree that JF-17s and J-10Cs will be in most numbers (as we are going to replace F-7s and Mirages)

However, I have a different view point about KAAN. Considering the very high costs, I don't think PAF can possibly induct these in numbers. Infact I think PAF may even procure more J-10Cs (or its future version) to replace some of older F-16s instead trying to replace all with 5th gen platform. So, if we had 75 F-16s - The replacement may not be 75 KAANs.

Eventually PAF may get additional squadrons of 5th gen fighters but that will take considerable time. In a foreseeable future (1-2 decades) PAF simply cannot replace its F-16s with KAAN. By 2040 most of F-16s could possibly still be flying and we may only have a dozen 5th gen fighters.

However, how future warfare adapts is still a big variable. We'll see further improvement and importance of Unmanned systems and perhaps lesser number of manned fighter jets than usually we used to had.

Affordability is definitely an obstacle, for sure, but PAF's procurement doctrine never plans for a couple dozen fighters as it cannot afford the induction costs for so few units. The only time the PAF procured a few units of an aircraft type were due to aid -- e.g., F-104 -- and even then you could argue the procurement roadmap was actually cut short due to sanctions (1965 War).

E.g., when the PAF sought the A-7, it told the U.S. it wanted 114 aircraft, even though the A-7 was a specialized attack platform. Likewise, when the PAF spoke to Dassault in the 1990s for the M2K/-5, the PAF made it clear that it was planning to buy at least 80 units through multiple batches. Interestingly, the PAF F-16 program was supposed to reach around 160 aircraft (110 Block-15s and 50 Block-32/42).

Yes, the KAAN will be a very sophisticated and capable fighter, but the PAF will never go for a couple dozen; in that case, it'd look to fulfill the same role via a lower cost option. Sure, fiscal limits likely would put a cap on KAAN induction, but wherever possible, the PAF will do what it can to reach that 90-unit base. It's an investment that'll span for some 50 and, in all likelihood, production will probably be open for 20-30 years at least.

The key for KAAN's affordability will be driving economies-of-scale, so, it's imperative that Turkiye secure new partners or commitments. Besides Azerbaijan and Pakistan, I think there could be an opportunity to engage Algeria and Kazakhstan (as they traditionally bought from Russia). If they can collectively drive 1000+ units, then I think larger KAAN orders should be in reach.

 

[Goku-kun]

The PAF wouldn't buy any new fighter without committing to 90-150 units (e.g., F-6, Mirage III/5, F-16, and F-7). So, on that basis, there's still a lot of work to be done with the J-10CE and JF-17B/B3. IMO, we'll see a total of 90+ J-10CEs and 150+ JF-17B/B3-based fighters.

IMO, the Dragon and Thunder will likely replace all of the PAF's old aircraft moving forward, be it F-7PG, Mirage ROSE, and even JF-17B1/B2s. There's a real 'break' between the B1/B2 and B/B3, with the latter having 3-axis FBW, purpose-built room for AESA radar and internal ECM, etc. Once the airframes reach their 3,000-hour lifespan, you'd have to seriously evaluate if it's worth restoring them OR building new and reaping the benefits of the core advancements within the newer versions.

The PAF's tapping into the KAAN to replace the F-16s and, in turn, develop the maritime, deep strike, and offensive air ops roles from those squadrons (No. 9, No. 11, No. 05, No. 19 and 1-2 more). Basically, form the nucleus for future Swift Retort-type missions. IMO, the PAF would seek 90 KAANs plus a sizable number of stealthy flying-wing UCAVs.

Though important from a conventional deterrence standpoint, these roles aren't critical to the PAF's core mandate of denying India access and control over Pakistani airspace. So, the lack of KAANs doesn't affect anything essential to survival, rather, the J-10CEs, JF-17B/B3s, and SAMs will own those roles.

Affordability is definitely an obstacle, for sure, but PAF's procurement doctrine never plans for a couple dozen fighters as it cannot afford the induction costs for so few units. The only time the PAF procured a few units of an aircraft type were due to aid -- e.g., F-104 -- and even then you could argue the procurement roadmap was actually cut short due to sanctions (1965 War).

E.g., when the PAF sought the A-7, it told the U.S. it wanted 114 aircraft, even though the A-7 was a specialized attack platform. Likewise, when the PAF spoke to Dassault in the 1990s for the M2K/-5, the PAF made it clear that it was planning to buy at least 80 units through multiple batches. Interestingly, the PAF F-16 program was supposed to reach around 160 aircraft (110 Block-15s and 50 Block-32/42).

Yes, the KAAN will be a very sophisticated and capable fighter, but the PAF will never go for a couple dozen; in that case, it'd look to fulfill the same role via a lower cost option. Sure, fiscal limits likely would put a cap on KAAN induction, but wherever possible, the PAF will do what it can to reach that 90-unit base. It's an investment that'll span for some 50 and, in all likelihood, production will probably be open for 20-30 years at least.

The key for KAAN's affordability will be driving economies-of-scale, so, it's imperative that Turkiye secure new partners or commitments. Besides Azerbaijan and Pakistan, I think there could be an opportunity to engage Algeria and Kazakhstan (as they traditionally bought from Russia). If they can collectively drive 1000+ units, then I think larger KAAN orders should be in reach.

Bro I want to ask you something..I subscribe to your site quwa.org but the next month it automatically renews my subscription without my approval cutting the money from my account without my permission..why is that and how to stop this? and 2nd thing is that you are posting less articles these days so why is that?

 

[TheSolution]

we're all very focused on an FGFA but nobody seems to be wondering what the PAFs supporting assets will look like. I wonder what we will do for AEW&C and OECM

Any possibility for a domestic design?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Bro I want to ask you something..I subscribe to your site quwa.org but the next month it automatically renews my subscription without my approval cutting the money from my account without my permission..why is that and how to stop this? and 2nd thing is that you are posting less articles these days so why is that?

It renews automatically month-to-month. You can unsubscribe manually, or email me (bilal@quwa.org) your email and I'll do it for you. The publication days have changed from Sunday/Monday for this month, but this week's article will come out today and the next this Sunday. It'll be back to normal from then on, but you'll have 4 articles this month as normal.

 

[Edevelop]

PAF Fighter Jets Replacement can be.
F-16 - KAAN
JF-17 - J-35 if Get
Mirage - J-10C
F-7 - JF-17 Block 3 or Block D...

2 stealth platforms that are both twin-engined is unlikely

KAAN replacing F-16s in the Air Force makes a lot of sense...

If our economy in 2030 and beyond gets better maybe our Naval Air Arm can consider something as well.

At some point they got to do something to counter Indian Navy which has traditionally been dominant and now looking to expand its influence in the region and beyond. They got 2 aircraft carriers with Mig-29Ks, Tejas, and Rafale Ms. For me the J-35 or Kızılelma are ideal options for the Navy and if I'm being a fanboy maybe a TCG Anadolu as well.

 

[TheSolution]

 

[arslank03]

KAAN replacing F-16s in the Air Force makes a lot of sense...

If our economy in 2030 and beyond gets better maybe our Naval Air Arm can consider something as well.

At some point they got to do something to counter Indian Navy which has traditionally been dominant and now looking to expand its influence in the region and beyond. They got 2 aircraft carriers with Mig-29Ks, Tejas, and Rafale Ms. For me the J-35 or Kızılelma are ideal options for the Navy and if I'm being a fanboy maybe a TCG Anadolu as well.

I dont think the Naval air arm really has a choice. Allowing them to pursue a fighter means the PAF will probably lose its control and funding to some extent. IIRC, those naval mirages were under VERY tight PAF control. Navy doesn't really need them anyway. Countering the IAFs carrier aircraft doesnt start in the sky, rather, it starts underwater

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

I dont think the Naval air arm really has a choice. Allowing them to pursue a fighter means the PAF will probably lose its control and funding to some extent. IIRC, those naval mirages were under VERY tight PAF control. Navy doesn't really need them anyway. Countering the IAFs carrier aircraft doesnt start in the sky, rather, it starts underwater

Imagine some homegrown anka-3 type UCAV under the cover of Kizil Elma both operated from Jinnah Class Frigate on an adventure to sink Air Craft Carrier.IN battling with them but then a submarine group quietly enters the game
Add up long range Anti Ship BM &CM attack scenerio also.
This will be hell of a task for IN to defend against such a multidimensional attack.
PN can become a very potent force in Asia if they can grow a stealth Unmanned Aerial Vehicles' inventory in her war machinary.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I dont think the Naval air arm really has a choice. Allowing them to pursue a fighter means the PAF will probably lose its control and funding to some extent. IIRC, those naval mirages were under VERY tight PAF control. Navy doesn't really need them anyway. Countering the IAFs carrier aircraft doesnt start in the sky, rather, it starts underwater

IMO there's a middle road wherein the PN would own a carrier and the PAF would own the fighters or jet-UCAVs. This way, each side is responsible for the maintenance, training, and utilization of their respective asset. IIRC this is basically the approach the USMC and USN take.

 

[arslank03]

IMO there's a middle road wherein the PN would own a carrier and the PAF would own the fighters or jet-UCAVs. This way, each side is responsible for the maintenance, training, and utilization of their respective asset. IIRC this is basically the approach the USMC and USN take.

doesnt sound like a bad idea but it would be a serious waste of assets for the PN since we would need to now dedicate escorts too etc