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Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

"...you abandon the Musharraf thread (dont know why - its not like you but maybe we overwhelmed you there)"

Don't see you bringing your story to the west side of cyberspace. I fight outnumbered here a LOT. You'll forgive me if a FOB or two gets over-run through sheer fatigue and barrels melting from time to time.

Don't forget to watch the Packer-Vikes at Lambeau early Monday and don't read the news till the game's over. It'll be one for the ages...;)[/QUOTE]

i can wait - no issue!
yes the game should be great! - good Luck!
 
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I'm confused (again).

A.M. insists that the afghan taliban insurgency is all internal to Afghanistan with the exception of a few "foreigners". Yet you've indicated in your conversation with Elmo that there are tribal elements in the Islamic Emirate of South Waziristan (I presume followers of Nazir and Bahadur) that are focused upon Afghanistan too.

Sir, first of all you know it too that we are a nation with many tribes and sub clans having their own traditional values based on brotherhood as being from a same tribe and then the notion of being Muslims (Same case through out the world). Just for example, take the crusades where many different kings and princes after forgetting their differences united to lead armies to fight a holy cause based on a religious call or duty, same case here where these tribes who don't consider the border as a line dividing them from their brothers living on the other side. This was all one area few centuries ago, but the british made it divide, anyhow as i said these people don't care about the border, for them the ultimate cause is to help their brothers of the same tribe and as Muslims fighting a country which they perceive as an oppressor and adding fuel to the fire is that the oppressor is of a religion which they don't like and had many battles in the past too with the people from the same religion. So all these factors and many more will not stop them to go fight an enemy against which they justify to do jihad.

And yes Afghan War is 100% internal, the wazir or other tribes or any other Muslims over here will help their brothers by any mean possible. It may be giving them refuge, sending fighters over there or whatever. As i said, they don' consider the border anything as they used to live together with no boundaries for centuries, these tribes have been mentioned to have existed even when Alexander came on this side. The FATA and other areas of NWFP were part of Afghanistan for centuries, the geographical boundaries changed in the last couple of centuries or so, but for them these boundaries have no meaning. Wazir tribe lives in this part of SWA & NWA, they also have wazir tribe people living in the Afghanistan side too. So if you have people of the same tribe living on the both sides of the border how can you stop them to support each other in times of trouble ?? Try to understand the mentality of these tribal people based on sharing the same blood, being part of the pushtun tribe and then the Muslim factor. Just take your own red indian tribes, they had many sub clans, they used to fight each other had rivalries, but they also did get united to fight some foreign invader, some tribal chiefs even left US and went to Canada and then tried to garner support across the border and launch raids or fight the US forces on this side of the border. My point is that whether it be wazir, mehsud, bhettani, daur, bannusai, turi, mohmand, yousafzai, salarzai etc etc they are all part of one tribe, called the pushtun, so they are gonna get united and fight if they know someone is gonna harm them. For them tribe is more important then anything else. The US seen as an oppressor, the Afghan govt being run by the minority who are not native to this area and hated by the Pushtun who are in majority also add more fuel to the fire. See Hezbullah in Lebanon, they are Shia, so they get the maximum support from Iran as its Shia dominated, but other Sunni Muslim countries don't support it. Its not as simple as you guys think, its very complicated over here. These tribal people are not an easy nut to crack. See how US was sandwiched and still is, between the Sunni, Shia and Kurd issue.

We know this. You know this. Yet were you discussing such with me instead of Elmo, would you have admitted as much?

Given this, do you anticipate the P.A. ever double-crossing these tribes that fight in Afghanistan and make war upon them or is America sending its aid to the P.A. strictly for Pakistan's narrow purposes? Further, should we assume that the GoP and the P.A. assist these tribes in their endeavors by fighting their enemies but not them.

I admitted this to elmo in a thread which is public to everyone, anyone can read it, that also means that i have admitted it publicly even if it had been you in place of elmo. Well if GOP or PA did double crossed these tribes, then they will have to face the music of war also with them. Which sincerely nobody likes in Pakistan to happen, even Army showed its unhappiness in previous operations too, to be fighting their own countrymen & Muslims who had done no wrong to deserve being killed. PA nor GOP liked to assist these tribes in their endeavors across the border, but as i said, its a very very complicated situation. If you had ever come and lived among these people, then you may have gotten a clear picture of what i am trying to say, as for you by sitting in US it may be very hard to understand or it may sound BS what i have said, but on our side that's the reality.

So does this mean the GoP and PA support the targeting and slaughter of Afghans who are killed at the hands of the Nazir and Bahadur minions?

Is this what is meant by Pakistan's assistance in the WoT?:rofl:
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No never, PA or GOP would never support the slaughter of anyone, even it be Afghans or even American soldiers, but as said many times what US wishes to be done on this side of the border is a very delicate and complicated task. It can't be just done with guns blazing, this conflict can never be solved with just guns, it needs guns with some talks, give and take on both sides.

GoP, PA and people of Pakistan have given a lot of assistance in this WoT, we have suffered a lot, i live in Peshawar, roads are empty, people are very sad and angry, people are depressed, shops are doing no businesses, people are shifting to safer places, factories getting closed as in just last one month we have lost more then 200 people which include many women and children, killed for no crime of theirs. GoP and PA has done a lot to capture and kill the real culprits of the crime done on US soil, that is the AQ guys, the Afghan Taliban were no threat to us or even to US, it was AQ which made all this mess. The people of Pakistan are against AQ, but killing their own countrymen is not an easy task for any country of the world. As a soldier yourself, would you had found it easy to fire your guns towards your own countrymen when you know they had not harmed you ?? As said, I being a Muslim & Pushtun know the problems faced by GoP and PA, its not very easy to kill own Muslim brother, unless they have committed a crime of killing innocent Muslims, just like the TTP guys, the whole nation and PA are against them as they have killed innocent without any valid reason and threatened the existence of Pakistan. But for others, people ask questions that why do we kill own Muslims who have done nothing wrong against us. We hate the AQ guys as their version of Islam is distorted and based on some pathetic sect who justify killing of Muslims with no major sin being committed.

I hope i did said something useful enough to coll little bit of your anger, but Sir you with such huge experience should know its not an easy task to kill your own countrymen specially on the directions of a country which is perceived negatively through out the world for its aggression against Muslims and supporting regimes which kill Muslims with no impunity. Also, the past relationship of US with Pakistan is known by everyone, so it becomes very hard to convince the people and the armed forces to kill own people on the saying of US, which had never been a true friend to us.

Well am now gonna duck to escape the counter battery fire, once it is over, will come back again :pakistan:
 
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"And yes Afghan War is 100% internal, the wazir or other tribes or any other Muslims over here will help their brothers by any mean possible. It may be giving them refuge, sending fighters over there or whatever..."

You contradict yourself repeatedly here. No country can live by the double-standard you've established for yourselves with this justification. With sovereign rights come responsibilities that the state asserts over ALL of its citizens.

There is no selectivity to the application of such.

"As i said, they don' consider the border anything as they used to live together with no boundaries for centuries..."

That doesn't stop the state of Pakistan from flying its flag at your border crossings.

"Well if GOP or PA did double crossed these tribes, then they will have to face the music of war also with them."

In truth, I'd use the term "double-cross" only with respect to Pakistan. It's not an act of duplicity to rein their irridentist ambitions in but an obligation of state. You are, ultimately, required to do so to fulfill any mandate of sovereignty and statehood.

" No never, PA or GOP would never support the slaughter of anyone, even it be Afghans or even American soldiers, but as said many times what US wishes to be done on this side of the border is a very delicate and complicated task. It can't be just done with guns blazing, this conflict can never be solved with just guns, it needs guns with some talks, give and take on both sides."

Taimikhan, "never" is an absolute. If so, then it wouldn't have been, nor be, nor shall be. For all your fine words meant to COAX these tribes back, you beg the forebearance and, ultimately, patient tolerance of (in this case) the afghans, ISAF, the U.N. and America.

That should never have been asked nor is it something that can be tolerated. At some point you must stand for something or fall for anything. Afghans, notably civilians, are dying by the same roadside bombs that befall NATO soldiers. They do so in the absence of pro-active efforts long overdue by the GoP and the P.A. to rein in this grisly harvest wrought at the hands of Nazir, Bahadur and others.

"GoP, PA and people of Pakistan have given a lot of assistance in this WoT, we have suffered a lot, i live in Peshawar, roads are empty, people are very sad and angry, people are depressed, shops are doing no businesses, people are shifting to safer places, factories getting closed as in just last one month we have lost more then 200 people which include many women and children, killed for no crime of theirs."

It is horrid what your people suffer but is far less than what the afghan people have suffered. Those are the cold hard facts. NATO, the U.N. and America are NOT in Afghanistan to occupy and turn it into a Euro-American fiefdom unlike the Soviet Union was once.

However, given the rife corruption and absolute absence of infrastructure and institutions our job is plenty hard enough without all that has been inflicted upon these amazingly unfortunate people from inside your borders.

Further, your suffering is INTERNAL to Pakistan. None of your soldiers have died doing anything but attempting to defend you from yourselves. I don't object ONE BIT to you making war on the mehsud clans but you've just finished telling me how one must talk. Well, you seem done with talking to the mehsuds. When will that be so also for the wazirs and other tribes whose allegiance and adherence to your laws is as tenuous?

"I hope i did said something useful enough to coll little bit of your anger, but Sir you with such huge experience should know its not an easy task to kill your own countrymen..."

It seems to depend which countrymen you choose to kill, does it not?

"... specially on the directions of a country which is perceived negatively through out the world..."

You mean America. Two points- 1.) Today you fight for yourselves. Until last March in SWAT, it was questionable whether you'd even do that and, 2.) your assertion of how we're perceived doesn't match the fact that forty nations stand with us in Afghanistan where that wasn't the case in Iraq. Obviously, they chose not to in Iraq. Fine, but what then explains why they choose to do so in Afghanistan. You should revisit this thought of yours.

"...it becomes very hard to convince the people and the armed forces to kill own people on the saying of US, which had never been a true friend to us."

Like I said, you fight now for yourselves. You have laws that you see fit to assert upon the mehsuds yet do not with those that make war on the afghans. This is wrong. As to our friendship, I've dared those here to do all you can to reject our aid.

See then who'll step to the fore and replace it-not just the military aid but the countless millions of development, agricultural, educational, food assistance, earthquake relief, and all else that we've freely given over the decades.

Don't hold your breath waiting, Taimikhan, especially for the PRC or anybody else for that matter. We are your best friend in a time when Pakistan is rapidly exhausting such at every turn and yet has never more needed friends.

Your case made here doesn't offer much hope as you continue, IMV, to see matters very selectively. War on the mehsuds no longer brooks "talking" but it is difficult for those who cross into Afghanistan and plant mine and mortar marketplaces. Forty nations besides Afghanistan suffer from such and I highly doubt they view Pakistan in a kindly manner for such as it's their blood too that's being spilled daily.

Thanks for your thoughts.
 
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S-2:

You contradict yourself repeatedly here. No country can live by the double-standard you've established for yourselves with this justification. With sovereign rights come responsibilities that the state asserts over ALL of its citizens.

Through imposition of corrupt leadership, and effective hold over the political leadership, and by imposing YOUR War on Pakistan you have deprived the government of a semblance of legitimacy causing it to lose writ. Pakistan State though still enjoys Sovereignty over its subjects, but a convict led government does not.

“”That should never have been asked nor is it something that can be tolerated. At some point you must stand for something or fall for anything. Afghans, notably civilians, are dying by the same roadside bombs that befall NATO soldiers. They do so in the absence of pro-active efforts long overdue by the GoP and the P.A. to rein in this grisly harvest wrought at the hands of Nazir, Bahadur and others.””

The US has no right to occupy a sovereign state, you better ship out first and then worry about the state of affairs. The US is too damn stingy, you guys are not doing any real nation building either. Can you please name just One world class project so far:
1. Any new Highway?
2. Any New Airport?
3. Any new Industrial park?
4. Any new large dam of power project?
5. Any new agricultural development?
6. Any new medical school, engineering college or university?

Except pandering to corrupt drug dealer mafia’s you guys got nothing to show.

It is horrid what your people suffer but is far less than what the afghan people have suffered. Those are the cold hard facts. NATO, the U.N. and America are NOT in Afghanistan to occupy and turn it into a Euro-American fiefdom unlike the Soviet Union was once.

Your score in Afghanistan stands at about 300,000; which is about 1/3rd of the Soviet occupation. In that sense you guys are great.

Further, your suffering is INTERNAL to Pakistan. None of your soldiers have died doing anything but attempting to defend you from yourselves. I don't object ONE BIT to you making war on the mehsud clans but you've just finished telling me how one must talk. Well, you seem done with talking to the mehsuds. When will that be so also for the wazirs and other tribes whose allegiance and adherence to your laws is as tenuous?

Our soldiers got involved because of your “Do More” mantra on our corrupt Political and military leadership since the early days of Musharraf. We will not have to defend ourselves if you guys get your dirty hands off.

doesn't match the fact that forty nations stand with us in Afghanistan where that wasn't the case in Iraq.

In Iraq you had just 28 shoe-shiners and coolies as “coalition of the willing”. Afghanistan began on a tall moral pedestal after 9/11 while the sympathies of the world were with you, every person with a conscience abhorred the atrocity. That’s why noble countries like Germany and Canada got suckered in. Given a choice you will still be left with the masseuses of Polish, Balgarian and Hungarian origin, with Georgians thrown in for added effect.


Like I said, you fight now for yourselves. You have laws that you see fit to assert upon the mehsuds yet do not with those that make war on the afghans. This is wrong. As to our friendship, I've dared those here to do all you can to reject our aid.

The US suckered Pakistan into a pointless war on its own soil, because of our corrupt leadership.
 
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Elmo

“”It's not a third of our forces that are fighting battles. Factually incorrect.””

You are factually right in saying that only four (4) out of the Eight Divisions Equivalent currently deployed in Swat, Bajaur, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram, Orakzai and N / S Waziristan are regular Army divisions; which constitutes hardly about 18% of the 22 Div strength of the Army.

The key issue is that these 8 Div equivalents were historically available for any REAL war on the Eastern Front. Now they are deployed more or less permanently on a new bleeding ulcer of a front that we created ourselves to please the Americans.

The generally believed 550,000 active Army strength is hell of a big myth. Your critical support assets like AH-1, Mi-17’s, Logistics, Signals, Intel, medical services, mechanized columns, MT, engineers, EME are all overstretched due to these useless operations. Infantry alone cannot wage a real war.

Counter Insurgency is the easiest form of warfare, a great chance to add “combat hardened” logo without the associated risks. The worst impact of these operations is that the soldiers and Commanders get conditioned to fighting poorly equipped AK-47 wielding adversaries. Capturing villages amongst screaming fleeing civilians become their second nature, and they actually believe they are in a real war. Once a REAL war breaks out and they find themselves without assured Air Superiority and facing ATGMs and heavy concentrated Armor assaults …. They are not able to stay the course. This happened to us in not too distant history in East Pakistan, when 30,000 strong Dacca garrison thought it prudent to accept surrender to just 3000 Indian troops in immediate vicinity.
 
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We talk of coercion, fear... but to what extent. Forget religion, what about ethnic loyalties? It's something that one is constantly thinking of lately.

To be frank, the problem with Pushtun loyalties in these areas is very unreliable, at one time they would be with one, the other time their loyalties will change, based on either money or due to fear. We saw that in Swat, the local people in the start openly used to favor the TNSM and the Fazlullah guys, they gave a lot of money, women gave their gold to them, children were handed over willingly, people used to bring Tv sets from their homes and smash them to the ground in open gathering of thousands of people, justice would be served quick by the taliban, but once they took power and their real face of terror emerged, the loyalties of the many locals changed. Same case there, many mehsud clansmen don't wish to do with any of this, but most of them lived due to fear, if they were so loyal then all the IDPs should have stayed and faced the PA along their loyal loving Mehsud militants. But local people had gotten fed up, a lot of foreign guys had been let in, who were threatening their way of living, same case due to which the wazir kicked them out. If you hear the stories of the local people who have given their daughters to such people, its really shocking. So ethnic loyalties may not hold good in this area. mehsud tribe elders are not so optimistic and willing to side by the govt as they first want to see the outcome of the operation then they will decide, so in one way they are already willing but waiting for the time to come.


Taimi, how do you compare it with the ones they applied in the earlier operations in the
a) SWA,
b) Bajaur,
c) Mohmand
d) Khyber
e) Swat

vis-a-vis (i) military strategy and (ii) tactics.

And let's not bring in the "political" bit into it. Will keep it short that way.

a) SWA
Earlier offensive were half hearted, no proper strategy and tactics, wastage of time, money and men. Except for the last Operation Zal Zala, in which the BM and his group asked for peace as previously PA would used to take the first step. It was a short operation but was effective and that i believe gave PA the confidence it needed that yeah these SOB can be defeated. The latest operation strategy and tactics i believe we had discussed earlier.

b) Bajaur
Well also same kind of strategy used as this time, it was slow but comprehensive, still the last part of this operation is to be achieved, or else the militants would speed up their activities as being seen right now. But in Bajaur, you will see a lot of destruction, bazaars completely raised and a lot of places totally destroyed, one reason being it was deliberate to give a message to the locals as in this specific agency throughout locals have given a lot of support to the militants, same tactic was used in Operation Zal Zala, raised one of their villages to the ground after giving a 3 hour deadline to empty it, reason being a lot of attacks specifically suicide car bombs were originating from this village, PA gave many warnings to the elders to check this thing or else face the consequences, so one more attack happened, that let operation zal zala in motion, and the villages was raised to the ground, and i believe if my memory is correct, PA found 3-4 nearly ready cars or in the process of being converted to suicide car bombs and many car bomb making places. But problem in Bajaur is that the militants escape to Afghanistan, after which we can't target them.

c) Mohmand
It was a not so big kind of operation, except for some major battles, as here the resistance is thin and most of them left for Afghanistan through Bajaur. It was step wise operation, slow and same taking of places, securing supply line, destroying the militant infrastructure.

d) Khyber
Khyber is again just like on a small scale, FC and some Army involved, get in, secure places, supply route securing, militant infrastructure destruction but to a very limited scale and area.


e) Swat
I believe Swat too has been discussed, multi axis movement, securing major places, villages & towns, most importantly the heli borne assault in peochar, completely took the militants by surprise and played a major role in their destruction as it was the safest place for them, base of operations in a way, demoralizing effect it played.

But this isn't standard warfare. Guerrillas never engage in pitch battles. This is what has been happening for the last 8 years or so and this where the army has been criticised for treating it like conventional warfare. The insurgents have mastered "hit-and-run" attacks, that's their arena.

So between making the insurgents run and them leaving behind laptops/guns, what is important. The reduction in their numbers (by killing them, capturing them or surrender) or taking over their supplies?

When it comes to your base of operations or HQ of the militants, the safe heaven of theirs, resting ground, for that pitch battles are to be fought, as if you lose your home to live in with so much weapons & infrastructure built over the years then from where are the militants gonna fight or launch hit and run operations ? or after doing hit & run where will they go ?? This place was being run by them for 8 years, they were undefeated there, but now when they are on the run or their HQs and training grounds are taken, then where are they gonna go and built all this ?? If army has gone in with such preparations and planning, i believe they also know how to deal with hit and run tactics. Do you see any now in Swat ?? How many soldiers getting killed in Swat now due to ambushes or hit and run attacks? By the way Swat is much more militant friendly then SWA as it has so much greenery to give perfect cover, which SWA lacks in major area.

Really, most of the analysis one has read and seen on television is by former army men. Or may be as they say, there are very few retired army men who are on good terms with the PA.

Well retired army men, in their time tactics and strategies were different and now many additions to the old ones, now the place is different, different enemy, conditions different on the ground, so the people on the ground and in service would be the best judge or the people who got retired most probably before this whole thing even started ?? Ur call :) . See, no operation is ever perfect, all operations have limitations, based on the resources availability, they have used this strategy before on a grander scale in Swat and on small scale in other areas, so it must have been perfected more. In previous operations i remember we used to often hear the ambush took place and so many troops killed or missing after getting into some trap, but this time non, except for the initial attack on Kotkai where i believe a tactical blunder on small scale was done, but now Army has learned the lesson and not doing anything stupid.


Lol... the last time blain2 was telling me how the SSG spearheads all operations, wherever and whenever they happen.

SSG is still involved, but on smaller scale, any mission of extreme importance or not in the capability of regular soldiers would be their job, also nowadays SSG men are detailed with regular infantry soldiers who guide them in specific operations by giving tactical guidelines or even leading the infantry guys as they are more expert in COIN operations so their help increases the regular infantry awareness. I believe SSG will jump in on a larger scale but later own.

You see that's what doesn't make sense. And this isn't only about the PA or the current operation. You move people from three directions, you are busy fighting on three fronts, you are spending a lot of money. Why not consolidate one area and then move to the next? So you focus on one target, get over it and then spread outwards.

As said before, if you move from one area, all the militants would be there to face you resulting in stiff fighting, more casualties and very very slow progress, you get in from three directions, they will have to split up resulting in less stiff resistance. All the three fronts have separate commanders, specific objectives to achieve, specific area of operations, so no trouble. Money is there, plus its not an operations over a very large spread area, its the specific hotbed, safe heaven of the militants. If we have the opportunity to attack from three sides, resources to do that, which can give lot of results in a short period of time, then why not ?? take their area of safe heaven, leave them no place to live safely and then spread and kill them in mountains or many may even leave as they know no where else to go and get such a safe heaven.

The operation ended two months back and the army is not controlling more and more area now :)

What can i say to your perspective, the millions of people are back, schools opened, offices opened, police in place, many insurgents killed, some top commanders killed or captured, army moving to newer places as each day i hear the name of a new place where search operation launched.


They don't die down as the US is learning the hard way in Afghanistan. They wither away and then come together and attack you again and again. You have Britain in Malaya, the US in Veitnam, the Tamil insurgency, the attacks in Lebanon during the 1980s and then there were the attacks on the Israeli Defense Forces... classic COIN at play. The insurgents don't need to come together en mass. Just the "brains" that "guide" them have to working.

Plus, the cities and towns are not their hideouts, It's the mountain tops and caves. Did you see that one long tunnel that the army found in a mountain in Swat. Who'd have thought it was there even.

These all examples are good, but our case different as we are not an oppressor like others. I believe LTTE is finished, bcoz their safe heaven was taken from them, a guerrilla war that changed face to a conventional pitch battles and war. Sri Lankan army took the area under their control, LTTE got finished. In all the rest of the insurgencies you quoted, nearly all were or are as oppressors having done some things alienating the local population, then definitely you got a problem and in all the quoted insurgencies the insurgents had very elaborate safe heavens to operate from, with full support from the locals. And as for the surge in attacks against US in Afghanistan, its their own fault. It had to happen, the taliban control maximum area, have local support, don't have any problems in getting funds and weapons, the US as an oppressor and the corrupt puppet govt further gives support to the taliban and the killing of innocent people, some of the practices and steps directly confronting local traditions or Muslims traditions and the govt being run by people perceived as traitors and enemy give a lot of impetus to the Taliban.
 
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^ good work, taimi. I read all of your replies/posts, very informative. It's nice to read about a military operations' progress/tactics from a person with military background. Sometimes a thank you button isn't enough to thank a person for his great effort. Way to go, buddy. :)
 
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To be frank, the problem with Pushtun loyalties in these areas is very unreliable, at one time they would be with one, the other time their loyalties will change, based on either money or due to fear. We saw that in Swat, the local people in the start openly used to favor the TNSM and the Fazlullah guys, they gave a lot of money, women gave their gold to them, children were handed over willingly, people used to bring Tv sets from their homes and smash them to the ground in open gathering of thousands of people, justice would be served quick by the taliban, but once they took power and their real face of terror emerged, the loyalties of the many locals changed.

You see that's the issue I have. How do we know about their loyalties. Looking at the way things were in Swat and even in Waziristan, most people supported the Taliban and were extremely pro-active. You just ennumerated the various ways in which they went out of their way. But are the tribesmen in Waziristan really terrified? The Mehsuds are the Talibans. The Talibans needs to be stopped using as a blanket term... for some time. We have to assess who are the people who are in their ranks and files.


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Taimi great effort but this isn't what i had in mind. Most of this I know already and has been discussed quite a lot here. Why not take the debate to the next level (have been around for the same time as you and know all the answers that come from the usual suspects :) ).

Move beyond the half-heartedness or full-heartedness bit and the resources,and really analyse how the operations were done, and I mean the tactics and the strategy. Say for instance, what the army intended to do. Most of this info about the older operations is available.


a) SWA
Earlier offensive were half hearted, no proper strategy and tactics, wastage of time, money and men. Except for the last Operation Zal Zala, in which the BM and his group asked for peace as previously PA would used to take the first step. It was a short operation but was effective and that i believe gave PA the confidence it needed that yeah these SOB can be defeated. The latest operation strategy and tactics i believe we had discussed earlier.

Zal Zala? That's not the name that one has heard for the last operation. It was far fancier and snappier.

Elaborate on the "no proper strategy and tactics" bit. Trust me I have been in many a debate here and followed many others that have said the exact opposite. Trying to convince certain people that the operations were "half-hearted" has been an uphill task. (lol... I don't wish to see you dead but yeah let's see how it goes)


b) Bajaur
Well also same kind of strategy used as this time, it was slow but comprehensive, still the last part of this operation is to be achieved, or else the militants would speed up their activities as being seen right now. But in Bajaur, you will see a lot of destruction, bazaars completely raised and a lot of places totally destroyed, one reason being it was deliberate to give a message to the locals as in this specific agency throughout locals have given a lot of support to the militants, same tactic was used in Operation Zal Zala, raised one of their villages to the ground after giving a 3 hour deadline to empty it, reason being a lot of attacks specifically suicide car bombs were originating from this village, PA gave many warnings to the elders to check this thing or else face the consequences, so one more attack happened, that let operation zal zala in motion, and the villages was raised to the ground, and i believe if my memory is correct, PA found 3-4 nearly ready cars or in the process of being converted to suicide car bombs and many car bomb making places. But problem in Bajaur is that the militants escape to Afghanistan, after which we can't target them.

Umm... that bit about sending a strong message, well that is covered in the FCR's collective responsibility clause. That anyone found supporting/harboring militants will bear the brunt. The army had circulated notices about it. No way fair but desperate measures.


For Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, and Swat: well the last is fairly recent so we can omit that. But you know and I know about securing supply lines, sending a few troops, destroying militant infrastructure, .... in far more detail due to all the prior discussions. So then what... where did the army make or break it, area wise. Why are our discussions so surperficial...



When it comes to your base of operations or HQ of the militants, the safe heaven of theirs, resting ground, for that pitch battles are to be fought, as if you lose your home to live in with so much weapons & infrastructure built over the years then from where are the militants gonna fight or launch hit and run operations ? or after doing hit & run where will they go ?? This place was being run by them for 8 years, they were undefeated there, but now when they are on the run or their HQs and training grounds are taken, then where are they gonna go and built all this ?? If army has gone in with such preparations and planning, i believe they also know how to deal with hit and run tactics. Do you see any now in Swat ?? How many soldiers getting killed in Swat now due to ambushes or hit and run attacks? By the way Swat is much more militant friendly then SWA as it has so much greenery to give perfect cover, which SWA lacks in major area.

How about this: of the total militants in Swat, how many have been captured or killed? Rather how many are unaccounted for --- that will give you the real success about any COIN plan.

They have dissipated but for how long?



Well retired army men, in their time tactics and strategies were different and now many additions to the old ones, now the place is different, different enemy, conditions different on the ground, so the people on the ground and in service would be the best judge or the people who got retired most probably before this whole thing even started ?? Ur call :) .

Lol... how about the people who wrote the training and strategical/tactical man. manuals for the army to follow? Do we disregard the trainers now just because they have a retired in their name? Every plan is flexible and adaptable but their are certain key approaches that have to be kept in hindsight.


See, no operation is ever perfect, all operations have limitations, based on the resources availability, they have used this strategy before on a grander scale in Swat and on small scale in other areas, so it must have been perfected more. In previous operations i remember we used to often hear the ambush took place and so many troops killed or missing after getting into some trap, but this time non, except for the initial attack on Kotkai where i believe a tactical blunder on small scale was done, but now Army has learned the lesson and not doing anything stupid.

Right in the middle of Rah-e-Rast, there was a small news item that had come in the papers. It was about FC men being ambushed at exactly the same spot where another sizeable convoy was ambushed three years back. Talking about learning lessons, this time around as well the men were disarmed, some killed.

And where are we getting news from... the ISPR. Do I believe all that is churned out... hell no.


If we have the opportunity to attack from three sides, resources to do that, which can give lot of results in a short period of time, then why not ?? take their area of safe heaven, leave them no place to live safely and then spread and kill them in mountains or many may even leave as they know no where else to go and get such a safe heaven.

Do we have the resources????


By all counts, even the DG-ISPR's, we are over-stretching our resources. :disagree:

When you let them run to the mountains, you have a larger field to cover and need even more resources rather than having the militants contained in a smaller circle.


What can i say to your perspective, the millions of people are back, schools opened, offices opened, police in place, many insurgents killed, some top commanders killed or captured, army moving to newer places as each day i hear the name of a new place where search operation launched.

No, no. I did not mean that. You said they are controlling "more and more". My point: they controlling, nothing more and nothing less. The fight is over. Now they need to sustain this control over a longer period and make a transit. Reduce, rather nullify, all hit and run attacks. For instance, the one that took place in Kohat killing 6 soldiers was a grim reminder of how the network is still alive there.

(btw, how's your daughter now?)

These all examples are good, but our case different as we are not an oppressor like others.


Oppressor? Vietnam was about communism, Malaya was about communism again (one of the most sucessful COIN of the twentieth century), Lebanon had peace-keepers in it. Nothing oppressive about them, sparing the IDF.
 
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Elmo

“”It's not a third of our forces that are fighting battles. Factually incorrect.””

You are factually right in saying that only four (4) out of the Eight Divisions Equivalent currently deployed in Swat, Bajaur, Khyber, Mohmand, Kurram, Orakzai and N / S Waziristan are regular Army divisions; which constitutes hardly about 18% of the 22 Div strength of the Army.

The key issue is that these 8 Div equivalents were historically available for any REAL war on the Eastern Front. Now they are deployed more or less permanently on a new bleeding ulcer of a front that we created ourselves to please the Americans.

There is a surplus of divisions deployed on the eastern front. That's the bane with the deployment in NWFP and FATA --- that the military is still focussing on the eastern threat and not shifting enough divisions.

There are reserve divisions at both Pano Aqil and Mangla to cover up the deficit.


Plus the divisions deployed on the LoC are heavy divisions in contrast to the regular divisions, meaning your personnel strength is double. So those alone come to 28,000 per division (including all the support personnel).



The generally believed 550,000 active Army strength is hell of a big myth. Your critical support assets like AH-1, Mi-17’s, Logistics, Signals, Intel, medical services, mechanized columns, MT, engineers, EME are all overstretched due to these useless operations. Infantry alone cannot wage a real war.

Now see that's where all the confusion comes in. You are talking about infantry being overworked, and all the earlier operations had artillery and armour over-worked. Till there isn't transparency and accountability we can only shoot arrows in the dark.

And though not a big fan of violence, these operations aren't useless. Rather if they had been gotten right the first time or even the second time around, it would have saved us a lot of trouble.

The worst impact of these operations is that the soldiers and Commanders get conditioned to fighting poorly equipped AK-47 wielding adversaries. Capturing villages amongst screaming fleeing civilians become their second nature, and they actually believe they are in a real war.

But the question is, have our commanders even been conditioned to fighting unconventionally?


Once a REAL war breaks out and they find themselves without assured Air Superiority and facing ATGMs and heavy concentrated Armor assaults …. They are not able to stay the course. This happened to us in not too distant history in East Pakistan, when 30,000 strong Dacca garrison thought it prudent to accept surrender to just 3000 Indian troops in immediate vicinity.

This is the twenty-first century... things have changed. We can no longer expect to have wars a ala WWI and WWII style.

Insurgency is the new face of war.

I would say it's a normal evolutionary process. Refining of tactics... how to defeat the adversary with minimum resources.
The GHQ attack proved that. We have the IB, MI, ISI, CID, and a gazillion other agencies... nothing could prevent that or the attacks that took place in Lahore, Kohat and Peshawar the next day.

Forget tanks, planes... right now we are being held down by insurgents wielding grenades, AK-47s, high motivation, high skills, and some great brains.
 
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No 450/2009-ISPR Dated: October 31, 2009
Rawalpindi - October 31, 2009:



1. South Waziristan - Operation Rah-e-Nijat

a. The important phase of operations has commenced on all three axes. On Jandola-Sararogha axis the important stronghold of Sararogha has been surrounded from three sides. On Shakai-Kaniguram axis, Karama has been encircled and clearance of Kaniguram has commenced. On Razmak-Makeen axis security forces have reached the outskirts of Makeen.

b. In last 24 hours, 33 terrorists have been killed in SWA. Security forces losses are 4 soldiers injured. Details of operations are as follows:-

(1) On Jandola – Sararogha Axis

(a) Security forces moving forward have reached the outskirts of terrorists stronghold of Sararogha. The town has been surrounded from three directions. All the important features and ridges around Sararogha have been taken over by security forces.

(b) During the process of closing forward intense fire exchange took place. 13 terrorists have been killed while there is no loss of security forces.

(c) Clearance of the Sararogha town will commence in next 24 hours. There is substantial presence of terrorists in the town.

(d) During search at Kotkai, following weapons and ammunition recovered:-

(i) 1200 x Rounds of 12.7 mm
(ii) 12 x Grenades
(iii) 1x 75 mm RR
(iv) 1 x RPG-7
(v) 3 x 12.7 mm guns
(vi) 2 x AK 47
(vii) 1 x SBRL
(viii) 25 Kgs Potassium

(e) During search operation at Shishamwam forces recovered 1 x 12.7 mm gun with 2 spare barrels and 1 Automatic weapon (type unknown).

(2) On Shakai - Kaniguram Axis


(a) Security forces moving from two directions surrounded the town of Karama, a stronghold and training centre of Uzbek militants. Fierce fighting is going on between security forces and foreign terrorists present in the area. 17 terrorists have been killed. 2 soldiers got injured.

(b) Search and clearance operation of Kanigurm has commenced. Forces are facing stiff resistance and receiving fire from different parts of the town including mortar fire. Fighting in streets is going on and house to house search is in progress. Terrorists have converted the houses into strong bunkers and are holding towers in strength and with snipers. During exchange of fire 3 terrorists have been killed.

(c) During sanitization of Kund Mela an elaborate IED making factory has been discovered along with 2 suicide jackets and 50 Kgs of explosive.

(d) After securing Asman Manza feature 1 Km north of Kaniguram 1 x 14.5 mm gun, 4 grenades, 5 Kgs explosive and 1 rifle with telescope has been recovered.

(3) On Razmak- Makeen Axis

(a) Security forces have cleared Nawazkot and have reached the outskirts of Makeen, the base of terrorists in SWA. Makeen is the nerve centre of TTP.

(b) During consolidation and expansion at Sharkai Sar security forces recovered 1 x twin barrel of 14.5 mm gun with 2000 rounds and 1 x SPG-9 along with 8 rounds.

(c) During search of a compound in Nawazkot, Uzbek and Arabic literature has been found.

(d) Terrorists fired rockets at Green Ridge, resultantly 2 soldiers got injured.

(4) Intercepts

(a) Security forces are in control of most of the leading routes thus denying freedom of movement to terrorists in the area.

(b) Intelligence intercepts have revealed that terrorists are in great disarray and disorganized. The loss of important areas, confiscation of major weapons and ammunition and ration dumps have lowered their morale to a great extent.

(c) Desertions have been reported and they are making desperate moves.

2. Swat - Malakand - Operation Rah-e-Rast

a. 8 terrorists voluntarily surrendered to security forces at Mankial near Bahrain, Piochar, Besh Banr, Durushkhela, Alamganj and Shalpalam.

b. Security forces conducted search operation at Shangla, Sambat, Roria, Qambar and Gulibagh and apprehended 11 suspects.

3. Relief Activities

a. 7,203 cash cards have been distributed amongst the displaced families of Waziristan.

b. 19,348 displaced families of Waziristan have been provided with food items.

c. Army helpline and complaint cell (Telephone number 0996-740439) has been established at D I Khan.

-------------------------------------
 
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Seems like operation is progressing slowly but surely. TTP thugs won't be the same after this operation.
 
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You see that's the issue I have. How do we know about their loyalties. Looking at the way things were in Swat and even in Waziristan, most people supported the Taliban and were extremely pro-active. You just ennumerated the various ways in which they went out of their way. But are the tribesmen in Waziristan really terrified? The Mehsuds are the Talibans. The Talibans needs to be stopped using as a blanket term... for some time. We have to assess who are the people who are in their ranks and files.

First of all, Mehsud call themselves TTP, not The Taliban, its the wazir tribe and Afghan ones who use and are referred to as The Taliban. I believe its now been established that who is in whose ranks and what is the agenda of each one of them. The factor that has been keeping the link between Wazir Taliban and TTP has been the AQ guys and the old Soviet Afghan war veterans, otherwise the conflict between wazir taliban and Mehsud led TTP could have been used a long time ago, the way it is being used now. But the Wazir Taliban and Afghan Taliban both have recognized this menace, and that is why none is gonna help them by sending fighters to their aid. Afghan Taliban were already fed up of them as they had repeatedly told them to not to fight PA, rather concentrate there but to no avail as Afghan Taliban don't like to make PA & GoP fully against them.

Taimi great effort but this isn't what i had in mind. Most of this I know already and has been discussed quite a lot here. Why not take the debate to the next level (have been around for the same time as you and know all the answers that come from the usual suspects :) ).

Move beyond the half-heartedness or full-heartedness bit and the resources,and really analyse how the operations were done, and I mean the tactics and the strategy. Say for instance, what the army intended to do. Most of this info about the older operations is available.

Well problem in discussing tactics and strategies is, that it will take don't know how many pages to discuss, as there are tactics involved on so many fronts, you have night fighting techniques, surveillance & reconnaissance, how the movements of troops takes place, how the engineers detect and disable IEDs and mines as this time in both operations very rarely we hear of advancing troops getting injured or killed by IEDs or mines even the militants must have planted God knows how many, add to it the booby traps, how the heights are being captured, NLI units are very good at that and quiet some of them have been utilized as they are our mountain warfare experts, this time you see the troops first capture the surrounding heights, clear the adjacent area, secure it and then launch the assault on the villages, plus a lot of fighting takes place at night time, as PA is using this to their advantage, same happened in swat also. If you have something specific that you wish to discuss then do let know otherwise its a very long discussion and argument thing, due to which i did not went into dept.


Zal Zala? That's not the name that one has heard for the last operation. It was far fancier and snappier.

hmmmmmm, well that is the name that i remember, would you be kind enough to tell the one that you heard which is fancier and snappier :)

Elaborate on the "no proper strategy and tactics" bit. Trust me I have been in many a debate here and followed many others that have said the exact opposite. Trying to convince certain people that the operations were "half-hearted" has been an uphill task. (lol... I don't wish to see you dead but yeah let's see how it goes)

Well, very simple, SOPs wouldn't used to be followed fully, troops did not wished to kill own countrymen, troops would used to be thrust forward without securing or looking after the flanks and rear, due to which many times troops would used to get cut off and either killed or captured, fortunate ones would escape back. Army was in no great numbers, hardly a division strength rather a brigade or so, FC used to be relied a lot, which was in reality unreliable, due to their training, people from the same area and tribe being put forward to attack own tribesmen, BUT FC guys did showed a lot of courage in some very tough engagements. In many places they hold of the attacking militants who used to be in greater numbers, the FC guys who held and gave a fight to hundreds of attacking militants at the Sararogha Fort, some got killed, some captured and some reached the Jandola base on foot. If anyone says it wasn't half-hearted effort, well then they don't know what was happening over there. In the videos of this operation you won't be seeing FC guys anywhere, which is a frequent scene we would see in operations in other areas.


Umm... that bit about sending a strong message, well that is covered in the FCR's collective responsibility clause. That anyone found supporting/harboring militants will bear the brunt. The army had circulated notices about it. No way fair but desperate measures.

They had been repeatedly warned, but as they did not listened, it was done.

For Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, and Swat: well the last is fairly recent so we can omit that. But you know and I know about securing supply lines, sending a few troops, destroying militant infrastructure, .... in far more detail due to all the prior discussions. So then what... where did the army make or break it, area wise. Why are our discussions so surperficial...

Could you little bit elaborate as to what you are referring and what is that you wish to target for discussion.


How about this: of the total militants in Swat, how many have been captured or killed? Rather how many are unaccounted for --- that will give you the real success about any COIN plan.

They have dissipated but for how long?

Except for Fazllulah, i believe the top 5 or 6 commander of Swat TTP either killed or captured. Many others among the top commanders also killed or captured, rest would be also. I believe the figure of captured or surrendered has reached around 1000, the 900 figure was confirmed to me by someone who is involved there. Hundreds got killed too, see ISPR does not releases the figure of killed by just guessing, the get information from their human intelligence assets, from the dead bodies found at scenes of battle, from the troops involved in fighting, most importantly the intercept of communication between militants as they of course have to give a picture to their superior commanders of dead and injured. If ISPR had been giving very falsely figures or exaggeration, then why don't we seeing it in SW operation, so far only 300 killed with so much progress, if they had to exaggerate they must have by now given at least a figure between 600-1000 or so, but whatever figure they provide the real would not be much far away from the one provided. As sometime back in an ISPR release some 900 militants captured was told, my guy confirmed the same figure, plus minus there. Also, lot of the so called militants were not the hardcore ones, many were forced to join, some joined for fun and some were the criminal elements and some for money as they were being paid a good amount, so once the operation started many deserted as they were not the hardcore type. Some would be out there, but in total disarray and Army won't go till they are sure that none is left. Plus look at the activities there now, its getting better day by day, the Militants back is broken, yes they can still crawl, but InshAllah that will be taken care too.

Lol... how about the people who wrote the training and strategical/tactical man. manuals for the army to follow? Do we disregard the trainers now just because they have a retired in their name? Every plan is flexible and adaptable but their are certain key approaches that have to be kept in hindsight.

No, i did not meant in a disrespecting style, my Dad himself was a counter insurgency instructor at sometime and trained the hur mujahids, and also had the distinction of training some of the first batches of Sri Lankan officers sent for counter insurgency training. But text book things have their own use and in practical things may be same in some cases, different in some. We had the experience of only tackling Balochistan COIN, which is totally different then what we are faced now, terrain wise, tactics employed by militants, their fighting ability and weapons employed, so things change, basics are there of textbooks but in practical arena, things change a lot. Those analysts may talk from book point of view or quoting other insurgencies, but on the ground it would be very different, so they may not be fully aware what challenges lie on the ground.

Right in the middle of Rah-e-Rast, there was a small news item that had come in the papers. It was about FC men being ambushed at exactly the same spot where another sizeable convoy was ambushed three years back. Talking about learning lessons, this time around as well the men were disarmed, some killed.

Well that ambush took place in NWA, in which Lt Col Tahir, a captain and one Lt with about some 30+ guys got martyred, same spot where 3 years ago also an ambush happened. these were army guys, not FC involved, this specific area has a historical importance too as british lost a lot of men here too, actually this is a very very narrow pass with very high and nearly impossible slope to climb from the area where the road passes, that is the reason doing operations in NWA and SWA are not that easy. It was basically due to non diligence of the convoy or army in following the proper SOPs, as we had a peace agreement with them, so the army guys were casual and paid the price in the face of trust, that there is a peace agreement.

And where are we getting news from... the ISPR. Do I believe all that is churned out... hell no.

Its common sense they won't tell each and everything in black & white, but they are not that much of liars, it may be not 100% truth but its not 100% lie too.



Do we have the resources????

By all counts, even the DG-ISPR's, we are over-stretching our resources. :disagree:

He is saying we are over stretching the resources, not that we don't have the resources. Resources are there but its just that the resources available for some specific area or objective are being utilized for areas or objectives which were not planned for initially.

When you let them run to the mountains, you have a larger field to cover and need even more resources rather than having the militants contained in a smaller circle.

The militants need place to sleep, rest, things to eat, need water, need supply lines, ration to use, contact with locals, with families if any, if those mountains are not gonna provide them these things, for how long will they gonna fight ?? for 8 years they were here, made all the infrastructure, where in the mountains are they gonna find all this. Its not very easy to live in mountains with no basic necessities. The main aim is to dislodge them from their safe heaven, let them go into mountains, they will get bored themselves over there, no vodka or whatever other brands, no women, no electricity, bombings from the air, artillery fire to give a wake up call, army in their pursuit, its not an easy task to live like that, specially when they have been used to all this for many years.



No, no. I did not mean that. You said they are controlling "more and more". My point: they controlling, nothing more and nothing less. The fight is over. Now they need to sustain this control over a longer period and make a transit. Reduce, rather nullify, all hit and run attacks. For instance, the one that took place in Kohat killing 6 soldiers was a grim reminder of how the network is still alive there.

Swat and other areas in Malakand Agency have not been 100% under control yet, army first cleared the area of major infestation, now they are expanding to areas where they get information of having militants so that no room to relax and regroup is given. They are doing both things, controlling the already cleared areas and expanding to the unexplored areas where militants are hiding and moving.

Oppressor? Vietnam was about communism, Malaya was about communism again (one of the most sucessful COIN of the twentieth century), Lebanon had peace-keepers in it. Nothing oppressive about them, sparing the IDF.

Vietnam was communism for US, for locals it wasn't otherwise US won't have gotten a defeat. As for Malaya, you are right but the large factor played in succeeding the COIN operation was the stupidity done by the communists themselves which made the locals go totally against them and some innovative thinking by the British forces. If the people of Lebanon or some majority group representing locals doesn't wants a peace keeping force then what else you gonna call it? A peace keeping force having Americans that too :) ?? ISAF is also a security force, but they are thought as oppressors.
 
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Forget tanks, planes... right now we are being held down by insurgents wielding grenades, AK-47s, high motivation, high skills, and some great brains.

which war r u watching!:rofl:
 
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The GHQ attack proved that. We have the IB, MI, ISI, CID, and a gazillion other agencies... nothing could prevent that or the attacks that took place in Lahore, Kohat and Peshawar the next day.

and the most technologically superior country in the world couldnt prevent 911. funny eh!
 
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The GHQ attack proved that. We have the IB, MI, ISI, CID, and a gazillion other agencies... nothing could prevent that or the attacks that took place in Lahore, Kohat and Peshawar the next day.

and the most technologically superior country in the world couldnt prevent 911. funny eh!



WHO is afraid - of terrorist - freedom comes at a price ....and we will remove the terrorist out
 
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