No J-10B for PAF | A.C Khalid, calls for a focus on 5th generation platform instead.

[Folkindia]

Would not constitute a shrewd decision to rely on past laurels all the time.. It is of paramount importance that Pakistan acquires a greater number of J-10b's and there is a growing need to shift from this defensiveness, 'minimum deterrence' doctrine. Sure india will likely keep a significant level of fighters for China, but doesn't appease the need for Pakistan to balance the offset.

Future Air Force: (In my opinion, this should be the target, of course not being overly ambitious).

150 JF-17 block 2/3
Current F-16 fleet fully upgraded.
60/70 J-10b
36 J-31

THE PAF HAS ALWAYS BEEN TRAINED TO FIGHT OUTNUMBERED SINCE 65

 

[rockstar08]

there is no upcoming procurement i see from PAF , besides those used F-16's ...
no new platform, no heavy fighters ,only 16's are capable of giving tough time to mki's and MK2's of IAF , rest is not sure ...

i believe PAF and PN is run by some Corrupt Generals

 

[Folkindia]

Sounds good. Not too sure if that's entirely possible given the current, sorry state of affairs. Hopefully, they will have a significantly larger amount of fighters available at their disposal by 2020 max to counter the growing Indian Air Force. Just out of interest, in terms of a value, your proposed plan would cost how much realistically?

My two cents:
1) Buy more used MLU'd F-16's with upgraded radars for air defense / interception needs
2) JFT block II and stealthy JFT block III work needs to go into supersonic mode. Expedite it. You'd still have time as Rafale's won't start coming in tomorrow "war ready"
3) Get J-31 and try to come up with a JV on its tech towards the JFT block III so you can produce a stealthy variant yourself (or majority of it)
4) If J-31 take time, get 60-100 J-11's or J-16's (land version) or even lease them till J-31 becomes operational

The above should fill the gap very well. By 2018 having 200 JFT block II standards, 100 JFT block III with stealth optimized, with 100 F-16's block 40+ (used ANG, USAF ones with upgraded radars), 60-100 J-16s and about 100 J-31's means around 550-600 jets with current standards. PLENTY to defend any airspace.

 

[MilSpec]

I think Pakistan will buy stuff from the Russians but it'll be some SAMS and helicopters. If I was responsible for procurement, I'd procure SAMS (the long range ones) and a few heli's, which are desperately needed for the war on terrorism. That's it. Why go to Russia when the Chinese have started to produce almost the same if not better products? Their helicopters are designed on Western tech (baseline is the Eurocopter) and the new Z series designs are much more Western than the traditional Russian designs, half-manual / half automatic MI heli's.

Now, you are starting to make sense.I wondn't have commented if your initial argument reflected the above, my comment restricts itself to Su's and Migs. Rest of it is correct.

 

[sancho]

For WHAT it is worth I dont see PAF procuring much from the Russians either due to resource constraints.

And that's the crucial part in nearly all deals for PAF for years, be it JF 17 upgrades with French systems, be it a more advanced JF17 Block 2 upgrade, be it the J10B procurement..., all that was mainly based on the lack of funds. But that's what some dreamers simply keep ignoring when they talk about Mig's, Su's or 500 to 600 modern fighters in PAF. So it doesn't really matter what India does, the first constraint is in Pakistan itself!
More importantly, the MMRCA has no relation to PAF either, surely not from our side, since the upgrades on the Mig 29, M2K and the ongoing procurement of MKI's alone provides IAF with a technical and numerical superiority, which also doesn't change if IAF is forced to phase out Mig 21s and 27s earlier than expected. So any procurement of PAF for new fighters, would have to counter the existing fleet and capabilities first, even without considering MMRCAs, which brings us full circle again, since even that is limited by resource resource constraints, financially and also politically with the limitations the US put of PAFs' F16 capabilities.
The only way to counter IAF is not to aim on similar numbers of similar fighers, but to add game changers / force multipliers! The addition of AWACS and Tanker aircrafts that are fully compatible with JF 17, along with a good Chinese weapon pack, gave PAF far more capability, than the comple F16 fleet. PAF now is able to detect threats far earlier, which reduces the reaction time, but at the same time is able to increase it's reach and endurance via IFR or the use of stand off weapons. That's where PAF used it's resources in the most effective way and not by adding more, but limited F16s. The next such game changer will be the J31, since that again expands PAF's capabilities much further, even in lower numbers.

 

[Viper0011.]

Now, you are starting to make sense.I wondn't have commented if your initial argument reflected the above, my comment restricts itself to Su's and Migs. Rest of it is correct.

That's where we disconnect. You are overly confident about India's leverage over the Russians. There is something called two countries do business and then there is something called, survival. In the later, a country or human will go build whatever relationships it perceives important.
With POTUS's land mark visit to India, expect more Russian cooperation with any country that's not pro-US. Its just the name of the game. If Pakistan's economy grows to 40% from where it is today and it can pay cash, trust me. The SU's or the Typhoons are only a contract away. Russians or the French will sell anything for cash. In this case, they get to steal a small portion of the usual American business too. So don't discount the leverage anyone can have with a few billion dollars cash, specially when it is trade partner (which Pakistan will become with Russia after the trade corridor and the rail link is established through China).

And that's the crucial part in nearly all deals for PAF for years, be it JF 17 upgrades with French systems, be it a more advanced JF17 Block 2 upgrade, be it the J10B procurement..., all that was mainly based on the lack of funds. But that's what some dreamers simply keep ignoring when they talk about Mig's, Su's or 500 to 600 modern fighters in PAF. So it doesn't really matter what India does, the first constraint is in Pakistan itself!
More importantly, the MMRCA has no relation to PAF either, surely not from our side, since the upgrades on the Mig 29, M2K and the ongoing procurement of MKI's alone provides IAF with a technical and numerical superiority, which also doesn't change if IAF is forced to phase out Mig 21s and 27s earlier than expected. So any procurement of PAF for new fighters, would have to counter the existing fleet and capabilities first, even without considering MMRCAs, which brings us full circle again, since even that is limited by resource resource constraints, financially and also politically with the limitations the US put of PAFs' F16 capabilities.
The only way to counter IAF is not to aim on similar numbers of similar fighers, but to add game changers / force multipliers! The addition of AWACS and Tanker aircrafts that are fully compatible with JF 17, along with a good Chinese weapon pack, gave PAF far more capability, than the comple F16 fleet. PAF now is able to detect threats far earlier, which reduces the reaction time, but at the same time is able to increase it's reach and endurance via IFR or the use of stand off weapons. That's where PAF used it's resources in the most effective way and not by adding more, but limited F16s. The next such game changer will be the J31, since that again expands PAF's capabilities much further, even in lower numbers.

I think you are discrediting many factors here, your post doesn't provide comprehensive view of the situation. One thing I agree with you is the fact that the first constraint is Pakistan itself. They have to change a lot of things if they want to prosper and be something important on the world map. No doubt about it. But for the PAF, if the economy grew 30% more than where it is today, it will do wonders and magic. What you ignored is this:
1) India has much larger dreams and the US is supportive of its dreams of becoming a regional power. BUT.....if India gets into a messy war with Pakistan and loses over 200 of its 4th gen jets plus billions in trade related damages......is it worth it? HECK NO! Its in India's interest to look and feel big to the world and not let a small country like Pakistan take it for a ride in front of the world. This doesn't mean Pakistan won't suffer, they might lose all of their air force. But...India, trying to be much bigger power, loses the most. Reputation is a biatch, it works in your favor and small crap destroys it too.
2) India has two immediate issues (and most serious ones), unlike the US, she doesn't enjoy thousands of miles worth of distance from all major conflict zone. She has another regional power next door and another atomic arch rival on the other next door. So at any given time, in addition to India's global ambitions, she has to watch out for both next door neighbors. This is where it gets tricky. Say you have 600 total planes dedicated to Chinese and to the Pakistani border (300 on each side). In a way like scenario with Pakistan, you move a 100 or so towards Pakistan. But remember, Pakistan doesn't face two enemies. It just has India. So, at any given time, the PAF will not face the ENTIRE IAF. So the parity will be down to 1:1.5 or 1:2. With JFT BVR capable getting inducted and good SAM systems, potentially more F-16's, you are risking a huge portion of IAF"s strike force. Whether you take down half the PAF before the world gets in and stops the mess, is a different story. But losing 120-200 of your top end aircraft will be a huge blow to IAF. It'll get weaker for the next 5-7 years and will have severe issues in projecting power to how it wants to.

 

[gslv mk3]

hen ALL these contracts are "actually" given to the Russians, let me know.

All JV projects mentioned there are work in progress.

 

[princefaisal]

Yes, no J-10b for Pakistan when J-10C is out there.

Zhang Zhaozhong, a military expert at the National Defense University (NDU), said in an interview with reporters from the China Central Television (CCTV) that the J-10B fighter is at least 30 percent better than the J-10A fighter in overall performance. So being a single engine fighter, PAF should also evaluate the J-10C aircraft.

According to the global aviation report published in 2nd Feb 2014, China believes PLAAF’s J-10C fighter may be able to surpass U.S. and European counterparts.

Equipped with active phased array radar and avionic system similar to the J-20, the Sina Military Network stressed that the J-10C can be more powerful than the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale“

 

[araz]

And that's the crucial part in nearly all deals for PAF for years, be it JF 17 upgrades with French systems, be it a more advanced JF17 Block 2 upgrade, be it the J10B procurement..., all that was mainly based on the lack of funds. But that's what some dreamers simply keep ignoring when they talk about Mig's, Su's or 500 to 600 modern fighters in PAF. So it doesn't really matter what India does, the first constraint is in Pakistan itself!
More importantly, the MMRCA has no relation to PAF either, surely not from our side, since the upgrades on the Mig 29, M2K and the ongoing procurement of MKI's alone provides IAF with a technical and numerical superiority, which also doesn't change if IAF is forced to phase out Mig 21s and 27s earlier than expected. So any procurement of PAF for new fighters, would have to counter the existing fleet and capabilities first, even without considering MMRCAs, which brings us full circle again, since even that is limited by resource resource constraints, financially and also politically with the limitations the US put of PAFs' F16 capabilities.
The only way to counter IAF is not to aim on similar numbers of similar fighers, but to add game changers / force multipliers! The addition of AWACS and Tanker aircrafts that are fully compatible with JF 17, along with a good Chinese weapon pack, gave PAF far more capability, than the comple F16 fleet. PAF now is able to detect threats far earlier, which reduces the reaction time, but at the same time is able to increase it's reach and endurance via IFR or the use of stand off weapons. That's where PAF used it's resources in the most effective way and not by adding more, but limited F16s. The next such game changer will be the J31, since that again expands PAF's capabilities much further, even in lower numbers.

Mostly agree with your post except one proviso. The MMRCA contract will affect the PAF procurement and other plans irrespective of how IAF thinks because no one in their right Minds would leave Out the Rafale if there was a confrontation in the region. Unlike gungho internet arm chair generals PAF has quietly gone down the route you have predicted. The utility of the 16s is something which is undeniable. We know the plane inside out and then some more. The fact we keep buying bl.15s to MLU is a testament to the logic of big bang for the buck

Yes, no J-10b for Pakistan when J-10C is out there.

Zhang Zhaozhong, a military expert at the National Defense University (NDU), said in an interview with reporters from the China Central Television (CCTV) that the J-10B fighter is at least 30 percent better than the J-10A fighter in overall performance. So being a single engine fighter, PAF should also evaluate the J-10C aircraft.

According to the global aviation report published in 2nd Feb 2014, China believes PLAAF’s J-10C fighter may be able to surpass U.S. and European counterparts.

Equipped with active phased array radar and avionic system similar to the J-20, the Sina Military Network stressed that the J-10C can be more powerful than the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale“

Keep on dreaming Son. J10 D would be absolutely awesome. But PAF buying j10 !!!!! Sorry to disappoint you but aint gonna happen.
Araz

 

[sancho]

One thing I agree with you is the fact that the first constraint is Pakistan itself.

Such a long post, but at least one scentence that makes sense, even if it counters nearly all you said earlier. If you admit that Pakistan has this constraints, you automatically have to admit that PAF can't make Russia any proposal that would be interesting enough to counter even the current orders of MKIs, Mig 29Ks and Mi 17s, or even remotly risk the relations to India.
There will be of course a Russian aim to sell some stuff to Pakistan and I even hope for more RD 93, Mi 17 and Mi 35 sales, because that means we have to spend less to keep Russian arms industry alive, while these arms hardly pose a threat to India, but that's of course far away from your theories.
The rest is just a flawed analysis and takes us even further away from the topic, so lets leave it at that.

Mostly agree with your post except one proviso. The MMRCA contract will affect the PAF procurement and other plans irrespective of how IAF thinks because no one in their right Minds would leave Out the Rafale if there was a confrontation in the region.

IAF of course wouldn't leave it out, since they will be stationed to an extend alongside Pakistans border too, simply by the fact that they are replacing older Mig squadrons. The point however is, that it doesn't make sense for PAF to make a so called counter procurement, because they would have to do the same for the other mentioned IAF fighters too. So MMRCA can't force PAF to a reaction, but the IAF fleet and it's capabilities as such.Even if IAF wouldn't buy Rafales anymore and "just" add more upgraded MKIs instead, it still would be the same counter of a fleet that PAF would need to consider, not of a specific fighter.

 

[araz]

Such a long post, but at least one scentence that makes sense, even if it counters nearly all you said earlier. If you admit that Pakistan has this constraints, you automatically have to admit that PAF can't make Russia any proposal that would be interesting enough to counter even the current orders of MKIs, Mig 29Ks and Mi 17s, or even remotly risk the relations to India.
There will be of course a Russian aim to sell some stuff to Pakistan and I even hope for more RD 93, Mi 17 and Mi 35 sales, because that means we have to spend less to keep Russian arms industry alive, while these arms hardly pose a threat to India, but that's of course far away from your theories.
The rest is just a flawed analysis and takes us even further away from the topic, so lets leave it at that.




IAF of course wouldn't leave it out, since they will be stationed to an extend alongside Pakistans border too, simply by the fact that they are replacing older Mig squadrons. The point however is, that it doesn't make sense for PAF to make a so called counter procurement, because they would have to do the same for the other mentioned IAF fighters too. So MMRCA can't force PAF to a reaction, but the IAF fleet and it's capabilities as such.Even if IAF wouldn't buy Rafales anymore and "just" add more upgraded MKIs instead, it still would be the same counter of a fleet that PAF would need to consider, not of a specific fighter.

I dont think the confidence level between the two is such that you wont have a counter to any acquisition by IAF and vice versa. The limitation is of not having a plane to plane competition but more of maintenance of enough of a deterrence to ward off any aggressive designs. I wish it were not the case but the reality is unfortunately otherwise. It does not help that the other players in the region are facilitating this aggressive posturing by their own means to advance their own purposes. But the basic fault is ours.
araz

 

[kaonalpha]

General's or orrMarshall8, post: 6700464, member: 149533"]there is no upcoming procurement i see from PAF , besides those used F-16's ...
no new platform, no heavy fighters ,only 16's are capable of giving tough time to mki's and MK2's of IAF , rest is not sure ...

i believe PAF and PN is run by some Corrupt Generals [/QUOTE]
Generals or Air marshal

 

[MastanKhan]

General's or orrMarshall8, post: 6700464, member: 149533"]there is no upcoming procurement i see from PAF , besides those used F-16's ...
no new platform, no heavy fighters ,only 16's are capable of giving tough time to mki's and MK2's of IAF , rest is not sure ...

i believe PAF and PN is run by some Corrupt Generals

Generals or Air marshal[/QUOTE]

Air marshalls are generals as well. U S military does not use air marshall for their air forces---but uses same ranks as of army.

 

[Viper0011.]

Such a long post, but at least one scentence that makes sense, even if it counters nearly all you said earlier. If you admit that Pakistan has this constraints, you automatically have to admit that PAF can't make Russia any proposal that would be interesting enough to counter even the current orders of MKIs, Mig 29Ks and Mi 17s, or even remotly risk the relations to India.
There will be of course a Russian aim to sell some stuff to Pakistan and I even hope for more RD 93, Mi 17 and Mi 35 sales, because that means we have to spend less to keep Russian arms industry alive, while these arms hardly pose a threat to India, but that's of course far away from your theories.
The rest is just a flawed analysis and takes us even further away from the topic, so lets leave it at that..

Typical of you. The ONLY sentence from my post that makes sense to you, is not because it actually does make sense. It because "I agreed with you". This is the Indian community's behavior on anything about Pakistan or India. If others agree with you, they make sense. If they don't, they are bashed, called names, races, etc, etc. If you guys can drop the ego issue, I am sure a lot of different topics would become easier to discuss and will have positive outcome than propaganda.

And let's revisit the content, Pakistan has constraints "TODAY". Three years from now, its a different story. If you, in your previous posts, can count stuff that you were to give to the Russians over the next ten years (and without a contract existing at this point); I am just counting the fact that Pakistan's economy would have advanced a bit. Not counting anything in the future that it might get from Russia or get offers for.

Lastly, the world is changing and you need to see it too. When President Obama decided to come to India without visiting Pakistan. The change was made public, that relations with India and Pakistan are no longer ONE connected string of relations. These are separate relationships and have their own importance.

The SAME statement was made public by the Russians when they said they would offer Heli's, Engines and all to Pakistan. It was an announcement of the same change that Russia will have defense relationships with both, India and Pakistan. They may never sell the same exact jet to Pakistan, but they'll offer other platforms when the time comes.

 

[davidwang]

Isn't india going to get the Pak Fa? So what is Pakistan going to do to counter this threat?

better avionics and better AMRAAMs