PeeD
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Flawed thinking.
Iran has already accepted a self-imposed 2500KM limit on missiles so why would Europe accept that? Iran has already leveraged away that limit. If you wanted to get 2500KM limit, Iran would need to have rapidly developed 8000KM-10,000KM ICBM so that it could give that up in negotiation and the West can say they reduced Iran’s Missile range by 4x.
As of right now the West wants Iran under 500KM likely.
Furthermore, accepting any limit on missile program is simply the first step in disbanding the entire program over time. A Classic Western Tactic.
Iran will not be able to strong arm the West. West is not intimidated military, they went up against Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union, so iran in comparison is a walk in the park.
Iran’s biggest flaw was not rapidly expanding economically post Revolution. By not being economically important to europe (outside of energy) there was little incentive for Europe to not follow US orders.
If you think that the threat of conventional missiles will deter Europe, you are naive. They have Russian nuclear tipped cruise missiles and BMs aimed at them for Decades. Iranian missiles are firecrackers in comparison.
The 2500km limit is a latent cap, not written on Paper.
Then you underestimate Rahbari: They knew exactly what Barjam was and requested every single detail of it.
JCPOA is a disaster for the west as Trump correctly said. Europeans have realized that too and play a foul game, not breaking the treaty but effectively embargoing Iran. If they go that way, Iran need a leverage to force them out of a illegitimate embargo: The use of a powerful asset is necessary.
Barjam MUST survive, it is the single greatest achievement of Iranian diplomacy in the recent history. You may underestimate Rahbari but if the US and now Europe think that JCPOA is only in favor of Iran, the rings should bell.
Iran has it on paper and China and Russia have also signed it. It is the most essential treaty for Irans strategic future.
So we can't break it via using assets that are forbidden by it.
But the MKO-Khorramshahr scenario is one leverage among others.
Testing of an IRBM for use against Diego Garcia is another leverage. Europeans must be forced out of their current strategy: the waiting game.
Russians are only slightly sanctioned by Europeans because of the threat they represent to Europe.
Iran does not need nuclear weapons, just a few of those 1,5t warheads against symbols of their power/military.
Also let me repeat: In geopolitics, a unilateral embargo can be regarded as a act of aggression, no need for military action. I can't stress that enough.