India's Total Fertility Rate finally falls below replacement

[vishwambhar]

Indian cities and towns are bunched up...narrow roads and lanes...there is no urban sprawl in India...the car is unworkable in majority of the Indian towns...But the plus side is this leaves a huge part of the country to rich forests...where some of the world's largest megafaunas abound and thrive...a lot of Lions, Togers,Elephants, Leopards, Rhinos, etc...If anything India can be prpud of , it is the wildlife conservation aspect, inspite of being one of the poorest countries on Earth....less resource utilization due to near vegetarian diet of most Indians is the cause here



UP's will come along in second phase..UP doesnot make more than 15 percent of India's population...in Last survey UP had TFR of 2.7 compared to Bihar's 3.4...........This time it would have certainly dipped to 2.3......that wont be anough to make India's TFR go above 2.1 as it stands in 2020...Corona would have crashed TFR further...A huge spike in inflation will complete demplish any baby making dreams of large chunk of Indians

Exactly.... no wonder Inspite of being second largest population India does have 24% of a landmass under dense evergreen forests rich with variety of wildlife and one of the most dangerous predators of the world.... lion and tigers both..... and this forest cover is still growing....

When I was in Tadoba in February 20 before lockdown one forest officer told me some Indian jungles are yet to see human boots on its soil..... even those forest officers can't make it that deep into those dense forests.....

Virappan was saved for so many years only by those thick forests.....

And actually 464 per sq km density is actually not that much for a huge country like India.... we have Bangladesh which is 22 times smaller but density 1116 per sq km.... Pakistan 4 times smaller but density 277 per sq km..... good news for us is our population growth rate is declining compared to these countries.....

Agreed our cities are overcrowded but outside you get green, beautiful India in a day light and after dark it's as lonely as evil dead....

 

[Naofumi]

I can cherry pick facts as well. USA has had constant high level urbanization for decades. USA birth rates in the 1970's were much higher then today despite crazy high inflation. Inflation and urbanization are not the drivers of birth rate decline in developed nations, IMO.

Contraceptive availability was lower, mass production of contraceptives was just getting started. And actually, economy of USA was stronger than now.

 

[CatSultan]

Seems the data was collated before Corona...UP's TFR data will be taken in 2nd phase but 4 years back it was much below Bihar's contemporary numbers...The population bomb in India is not a religious bomb but rather a culture/region bomb..That's my final observation....Bihar still sabotages rest of India with 3 children per woman

Below is from Star HBD (Human Bio-Diversity) blogger Anatoly Karlin:


This the news from the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), covering the years 2019-20. (h/t Cicerone, now Tweeting as @BirthGauge):



Previous NFHS surveys at Wikipedia stretching to 1981.

India overall is now at TFR = 2.1 children per woman. Kerala, long one of the lowest TFR states (as well as one of the most socially developed), is now middling.

But most interestingly, a number of states are approaching near East Asian lows. These are mainly the islands states (Sikkim at 1.1), and – most curiously – majority Muslim Jammu and Kashmir (1.4).

Bihar, the worst Indian state, has the highest TFR.

I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.


India Fertility Falls Below Replacement

3-4 kids is a good number. anything lower and you risk popultion decline.