Chinese economy may surpass the U.S. by 2030

[BanglaBhoot]

The National Intelligence Council reports that Asia could overtake both North America and Europe combined

By Priyanka Boghani, GlobalPost

China’s economy is likely to overtake the United States’ by 2030, according to a US intelligence report published Monday.

“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” issued by the National Intelligence Council, said Asia would overtake North America and Europe combined — in terms of global economic power — by the year 2030, according to Reuters.

“Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines,” the report said.

The report attributed the shifts in global power to economic and political changes triggered by emerging technologies, dwindling resources and population booms over the next few decades, according to Bloomberg.

Analysts isolated four “megatrends” that they said are transforming the world: the end of US global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class, and water, food and energy shortages, Bloomberg reported.

“The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” said the report, according to The New York Times. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”

The assessment did say America would remain an indispensable world leader, according to The Times, supported in part by energy independence. Analysts predicted that Russia’s power would wane, as would the economic strength of countries reliant on oil exports for revenue.

The report predicted that there would no longer be any one hegemonic power; instead, they wagered, “Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”

Chinese economy may surpass the U.S. by 2030 - Salon.com

 

[Hasbara Buster]

US study sees China as No. 1 economy by 2030

China's economy is likely to surpass the United States in less than two decades while Asia will overtake North America and Europe combined in global power by 2030, a U.S. intelligence report said on Monday.

"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines," it said.

The report, "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," was issued by the National Intelligence Council, an analytical arm of the U.S. government's Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In addition to U.S. intelligence analysts, the report includes the views of foreign and private experts.

It is the fifth report of a series - the previous one was released in 2008 - that aims to stimulate "strategic thinking" among decision makers and not to predict the future.

The health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to progress in the developing world rather than the traditional West, the report said.

"As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030," it said.

"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows. In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate - 8 to 10 percent - will probably be a distant memory by 2030. Reuters

FACTS & FIGURES

In just five years, China has surpassed the United States as a trading partner for much of the world, including U.S. allies such as South Korea and Australia, according to an Associated Press analysis of trade data.

As recently as 2006, the U.S. was the larger trading partner for 127 countries, versus just 70 for China. By last year the two had clearly traded places: 124 countries for China, 76 for the U.S.

Recent findings show how fast China has ascended to challenge America's century-old status as the globe's dominant trader, a change that is gradually translating into political influence. They highlight how pervasive China's impact has been, spreading from neighboring Asia to Africa and now emerging in Latin America, the traditional U.S. backyard.

Despite China's now-slowing economy, its share of world output and trade is expected to keep rising, with growth forecast at up to 8 percent a year over the next decade, far above U.S. and European levels.

The United States is still the world's biggest importer, but China is gaining. It was a bigger market than the United States for 77 countries in 2011, up from 20 in 2000, according to the AP analysis. AP

PressTV - China's economy likely to surpass US

 

[Kompromat]

In fact it will be much sooner.

2016: when China overtakes the US | Mark Weisbrot | World news | guardian.co.uk