China always has Mongolia

[CZAR]

Somehow Martian2 is a bit heady and intoxicated with the rising power of China, and you are probably right, may be this has to do with Western upbringing. People who have inner insecurity, which happens when growing up in another alien society, sometimes want to compensate for it with outwards aggression and show of power.

For 21st century power politics, holding moral high ground will be more important than applying force unilaterally without a just cause. The post 9/11 invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan should be a lesson for all aspiring world powers. People will not take occupation lying down, they will fight with whatever they have.

He is talking about a situation where the US and China are at war, so in a war situation, anything is possible. The real question is why and how the US and China would fail to avoid getting into that position, which will mean a breakdown of the conflict management and diplomatic skills of ruling classes in both societies, putting the future of the world at peril. I think that the possibility of this happening is very remote.

A transition of world power structure where the top position goes to China from the US, will be something of a challenge for the future leadership of both countries. The US will get desperate and try many things to avoid the inevitable, the challenge for China will be to hold its fire and not get into an open conflict. For white people of the world, it will be a shock that will take long time for them to recover and then start thinking about regrouping.

Instead of thinking like the old middle kingdom, where other barbarians in the periphery pays tributes, I promote a different model, which is to develop allied peer powers, that are powerful enough on their own to not need external balancers and as a result remain somewhat allied with China, in the form of ASEAN+, Eurasia+, GCC+ and African Union. If good things are done for people, I think people never forget the good deeds and always remember it with gratitude. On the other hand aggression and bloodshed also remains as historical memory for people's and nations.

There are much challenge for the humanity going forward, environmental degradation (global warming, reduction of biodiversity, air/water/soil pollution etc.), population growth, spreading sustainable practices etc., but faulty and misguided politics/geopolitics and resulting instability are standing in our way. I hope the Chinese pick up the tab of world leadership, and do a better job than the leading countries of today. Those are the challenges we should be seriously thinking about, in my opinion.

Sorry for the long lecture.

Well said. But will it not be foolish for the chinese to allow a group of nations to share the powers and opportunities, that it could command and enjoy, ALONE, after displacing the US. Realpolitik would ensure that the chinese leadership maintains its monopoly.

Its for other nations, to form a bloc, and demand their share of the pie. Or else, little will change except for the eastward orientation of global power. One bully for another (as is visible from the expansionist designs of the chinese psyche in this thread).

Cheers.

 

[kalu_miah]

And still true today. The Anti-China-ism is only getting stronger, not weaker.

At least Koreans got its Korean dramas getting 80% ratings on Mongolian TV to relax racism directed at Koreans and the older Mongols rant about how young Mongols go nuts for K-pop and learn to speak Korean, but Chinese don't get any of that.

I have met a few Mongolians and had interaction on the web. Their opinion about Korean is not very high either. They call Koreans "Solon Barga", not sure what it means, but I think they confuse Koreans with Solon, a farming tribe around the periphery of their land, may be in Manchuria. I think they are also mad that a lot of Koreans and Japanese go to Ulan Bator for pleasure trips.

But one thing I noticed is that it is a common trait among nomadic tribal people to look down on settled farming people, probably had to do with history, although their small number make them irrelevant in today's world.

Well said. But will it not be foolish for the chinese to allow a group of nations to share the powers and opportunities, that it could command and enjoy, ALONE, after displacing the US. Realpolitik would ensure that the chinese leadership maintains its monopoly.

Its for other nations, to form a bloc, and demand their share of the pie. Or else, little will change except for the eastward orientation of global power. One bully for another (as is visible from the expansionist designs of the chinese psyche in this thread).

Cheers.

Yes, that is the current line of thinking, the middle kingdom model, but then the US/West may figure out that they can ally with these blocs and gain power this way, so its a matter of who catches on this subtle point first, in my opinion. I think the Chinese will catch on first, because their mind do not have 5 centuries of supremacy baggage to get rid of, but lets see how it turns out.

Other nations may form blocs by themselves as it is in their interest, but a helping hand from one of the two powers, US and China, will expedite the process.

 

[Korean]

They call Koreans "Solon Barga", not sure what it means, but I think they confuse Koreans with Solon, a farming tribe around the periphery of their land, may be in Manchuria.

"Solon" refers to Evenki, and "Solon Barga" is a curse word referring to "the other Evenki" in a "cursing way".

Koreans being the offshoot of Evenki of Siberia was well-known to Mongols as far back as the time of Genghis Khan, where the Mongol troops met the "Evenki" at the most unexpected place. Likewise, the modern linguistics have found Evenki language to be the closest relative to Korean language.

Likewise, Japanese rightwingers curse Korean as "Dear-riding Evenki".

 

[Martian2]

Dear bro,

1) As I said, Mongolia has rich coal, copper etc. but it doesn’t have CRUDE OIL that China badly in need. Thus annexation of Mongolia to relieve crude oil stress is not the solution: Middle East to China mainly means the CRUDE.

2) I don’t think America would be as stupid as in Korea War. I.e., it is not to engage Chinese troops on land, it is going to CONFINE Chinese troops on land, and deny (or attempt to deny) Chinese challenges on any other theater.

Thus, your plan is not a feasible one.

In addition, you have been deeply influenced by western ideologies and methodologies. I don’t think true or native Chinese would think or behave as you've recommended.

Nonetheless, it would be a good subject for Hollywood playwright.

1. Coal will displace crude oil use wherever possible.

2. Build lots of CTL (coal-to-liquid) synthetic fuel plants. Pipe desalinated ocean water from Bohai Bay.

Trying to solve energy problem caused by blockade of Middle Eastern oil.

Oh, I don't deny my ideas sound like they come from an American. I think my views add something different to the discussion. Just putting more geopolitical options on the table.

I'm hoping native Chinese will weigh the merits of my suggestion and consider it. Come on guys! Let's annex Mongolia if the US Navy blocks Chinese imports of Middle Eastern oil! Blame it on the neo-cons and now we have 100 billion tonnes of coal!

[Note: Right hand busted. Have to keep response concise. No elaboration on other issues.]

 

[Anonymous user]

From a strategic standpoint it does make sense for China to take Mongolia if war breaks out. The card that makes this successful with be if Russia and China both work together, if Russia goes against China then the story will probably be quite different. (Mongolia being a Russia/China buffer)

Surprisingly Mongolia does have oil resources and a fair bit of it as well, we were part of a investor group which was shown several strategic resource investments while we in Mongolia.

For China to take Mongolia is surprisingly easy as contrary to what most will think, they only share borders with Russia and China hence only a Russian intervention can stop China.

Geography makes it difficult, much of Mongolia resources are focus on the South Gobi which is next to China, majority of the populations stays in Ulaanbaatar which is far north of Mongolia and forms the capital, strictly speaking taking South Gobi will be sufficient.

South Gobi land is flat with multiple train lines being built currently from the main mines OT & TT from Mongolia to China hence transport for the army is easy, train gauge is different I imagine but that should be easy to get around (train gauge size currently not decided yet)

The OT should be functional by next year, if anything assuming aggressor controls the facility extraction should be straightforward. Open cut mine if I recall run by Ivanhoe

Backup to the north will be tough even for the Russians, The north lifeline is via the Transmongolian a single track line which will hinder supply not to mention mountainous. From Moscow to Mongolia is about 5 days though I recall army depots were stationed near Mongolia. Even so re-supply lines for Russia will not as straightforward as China who has already developed the North Side.

Hence China really only needs to control South Gobi for the resources and from what we saw on the ground its a cinch, Mongolians know this as well hence been cautious not to let China investors gain too much influence on their projects.

 

[iamopenminded2]

Like i said before one day a future Chinese leader will claim that whole asia belongs to China

 

[Martian2]

Like i said before one day a future Chinese leader will claim that whole asia belongs to China

I disagree. I selected Mongolia, because no one lives there. With only 2.7 million people, all of Mongolia has about 1/10th the population of Taiwan. Therefore, Mongolia is basically open space.

Chinese don't like to rule others. You have to provide basic government services. I don't think China is in the business of industrializing other countries. It's like working for other people. That's never going to happen.

In conclusion, China is not interested in populated areas.

 

[kalu_miah]

If a few million Mongols could liberate half their land from Qing, what makes you think PRC can do better. I think it is not good for Chinese to underestimate Mongols. Mongols would rather be annexed by Russia than by the Chinese, if it starts looking risky and Russia will gladly oblige.

 

[Martian2]

If a few million Mongols could liberate half their land from Qing, what makes you think PRC can do better. I think it is not good for Chinese to underestimate Mongols. Mongols would rather be annexed by Russia than by the Chinese, if it starts looking risky and Russia will gladly oblige.

Ugh. I hate it when people make ridiculous claims.

China has a GDP of $8 trillion this year. Russia's GDP is about $2 trillion. Also, Russian GDP can collapse at any time if oil prices fall.

China is a serious industrial power. Russia is an oil state (like Saudi Arabia) with nuclear weapons.

In a conventional war over Mongolia, China wins hands down. Any claim to the contrary is just goofy.

Hint: compare manpower, number of modern aircraft, overall weaponry and sophistication, economic size for war of attrition, manufacturing capacity, length of logistics supply, etc.

China has a massive advantage in every category.

 

[LetsGetRowdy]

If a few million Mongols could liberate half their land from Qing, what makes you think PRC can do better. I think it is not good for Chinese to underestimate Mongols. Mongols would rather be annexed by Russia than by the Chinese, if it starts looking risky and Russia will gladly oblige.

The PLA has more soldiers than the entire population of (Outer) Mongolia.

 

[kalu_miah]

Ugh. I hate it when people make ridiculous claims.

China has a GDP of $8 trillion this year. Russia's GDP is about $2 trillion. Also, Russian GDP can collapse at any time if oil prices fall.

China is a serious industrial power. Russia is an oil state (like Saudi Arabia) with nuclear weapons.

In a conventional war over Mongolia, China wins hands down. Any claim to the contrary is just goofy.

Hint: compare manpower, number of modern aircraft, overall weaponry and sophistication, economic size for war of attrition, manufacturing capacity, length of logistics supply, etc.

China has a massive advantage in every category.

Russia's nuke arsenal is the asymmetrical balancer.

 

[Martian2]

Russia's nuke arsenal is the asymmetrical balancer.

Try reading about Russian nuclear policy. Show me a statement by a high ranking official that Russian nuclear forces will be used to defend Mongolia. God, you're a moron.

 

[kalu_miah]

Try reading about Russian nuclear policy. Show me a statement by a high ranking official that Russian nuclear forces will be used to defend Mongolia. God, you're a moron.

Before you call another person a moron, try showing a statement by a high ranking official that China will try to annex Mongolia. I thought we are talking about a hypothetical unlikely war, so why should we consider what any official is saying. If China is stupid enough to think like this, then I am sure Russia will not sit idle. Don't forget, its called a "buffer state".

 

[Martian2]

Before you call another person a moron, try showing a statement by a high ranking official that China will try to annex Mongolia. I thought we are talking about a hypothetical unlikely war, so why should we consider what any official is saying. If China is stupid enough to think like this, then I am sure Russia will not sit idle. Don't forget, its called a "buffer state".

It's called logical military strategy and does not require a citation.

Every Russian public statement has been a warning to NATO "or others" (hint: China) not to invade Russian territory using conventional military power. Any intelligent person would understand this means the exclusion of Russian nuclear forces to extend beyond Russian borders.

If Russian nuclear forces were to be used to protect a non-Russian country, it would have been used during the NATO bombing of Serbia. Serbs are Slavs and cultural cousins of Russians. Mongolians are not Slavs and Russians could care less about a bunch of non-Slavic Mongoloids.

I still believe you are a moron, because you have not read Russian public statements on the conditions that would trigger a nuclear response. The Russians have been quite clear (see citation below). Go ahead and try to find another idiot, who thinks the words "integrity of the Russian Federation" includes Mongolia.

Also, I believe you are stupid because you cannot appreciate the brilliant strategy of annexing Mongolia (for its estimated 100 billion tonnes of coal) to relieve an energy blockade by the US Navy in the Middle East.

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http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120215/171329091.html

"Russia Would Use Nukes to Stave Off Threats - General Staff
16:12 15/02/2012
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti)

Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to any imminent threat to its national security, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said on Wednesday.

“We are certainly not planning to fight against the whole of NATO,” Makarov said in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio, 'but if there is a threat to the integrity of the Russian Federation, we have the right to use nuclear weapons, and we will.' (article continues)"

 

[danger007]

Ugh. I hate it when people make ridiculous claims.

China has a GDP of $8 trillion this year. Russia's GDP is about $2 trillion. Also, Russian GDP can collapse at any time if oil prices fall.

China is a serious industrial power. Russia is an oil state (like Saudi Arabia) with nuclear weapons.

In a conventional war over Mongolia, China wins hands down. Any claim to the contrary is just goofy.

Hint: compare manpower, number of modern aircraft, overall weaponry and sophistication, economic size for war of attrition, manufacturing capacity, length of logistics supply, etc.

China has a massive advantage in every category.

Unlike china based on purely exports, Russia is independent .................... Oil price won't fall down that much low as you think.... certainly they are not technologically backward to china...... before calling others moron..... speak for your self..... where did chinese high profile military professional mentioned annexing Mongolia??? then how can you call kalu_miah moron..... you are living in wet dreams....... Mongolia is a peaceful country, I don't know about pakistan but none in the world will support china to occupy the mongolia....... God damn it is a sovereign country.... when you will understand that mean...... you should be in hollywood..... you could be great socia-fantasy sci-fi story writer......