Can the PLA Navy Make the Indian Ocean Chinese?

[Zarvan]

A recent Wikistrat simulation (full disclosure: I am a senior analyst with Wikistrat, although I did not work on this project) investigated the future of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy. In particular, the report (written by David K. Schneider) examined China’s effort to establish control over the East Asian littoral (A2/AD and amphibious capabilities) and to establish a presence in the Indian Ocean.

Readers of The Diplomat will recognize familiar notes in the report’s discussion of the PLAN’s A2/AD efforts. The more interesting question evoked by Schneider is this: Can the PLAN make the Indian Ocean Chinese? Chinese growth depends on access to the Indian Ocean, from whence the PRC gets much of its energy and a large proportion of its natural resources. China has spent much of its economic and diplomatic capital on building relationships in the region, from Pakistan to Africa. However, the Indian Navy has the capacity to pose a critical threat to Chinese access. With a large fleet and local bases, India can threaten Chinese control of the Indian Ocean at its leisure.

The report also examined China’s relationship with Russia, which remains important for access to technology and expertise. Traditionally the junior partner in this relationship, the increasing size, sophistication, and range of the PLAN should tip the scales in the next few years. Schneider also emphasized the role that political coordination between Moscow and Beijing could improve the PLAN’s prospects for strategic action.

Perhaps most interesting, the report identifies several key caveats that underlie China’s effort to build a world-class navy. These include the health of long-term collaboration with Russia, the ability of the Chinese national innovation system to deliver advanced technology, the overall health of the Chinese economy, and the ability of the Chinese Communist Party and the PLAN to work well with one another. Of these, the first and the third pose the greatest concern; significant economic problems could severely crimp China’s effort at naval expansion, and a deterioration (for whatever reason) of relations with Russia would leave China in a very, very lonely place.

To this I would add the inherent positionality of naval affairs. The power of China’s navy depends directly on the strength of its competitors. If Chinese naval growth continues to inspire India, Japan, and the Southeast Asian countries to expand their own fleets, then Beijing has spent a lot of money for little relative gain. Although the comparison between the PRC and Wilhelmine Germany has been overdone, it’s nevertheless worth noting that Germany built a remarkable fleet that succeeded only in creating enemies, and in spurring foreign naval construction.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/can-...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[salmanACCA]

There will be huge chinese presence in Arabian sea and indian ocean to protect their interests, maybe their will be an air craft carrier stationed in that area, thats why Pak-china navy's are conducting so many excersices to familirize with each other tactics and improve communications

 

[BoQ77]

The fact that China denied to pay for searching the MH-370. They can't search, and don't pay for search.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...h/news-story/b8dbd09adcdf5cc9e514f14006a95780

 

[somebozo]

Well this is what Gawader is for...to give operation capabilities to PLAN in Arabian and Indian ocean

 

[Tipu7]

Using Gawadar as pivot point, PLAN can easily increase its area of influence in Arabian sea and Indian ocean......

 

[SarthakGanguly]

China hopes to make it the Chinese Ocean. With Pakistan as her assistant. With the resources at hand they will most likely succeed.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

China hopes to make it the Chinese Ocean. With Pakistan as her assistant. With the resources at hand they will most likely succeed.

naaa...we'll probably get the Pakistanis and Sri Lankans to betray the Chinese.......

And of course @Zarvan will put lots of butthurt posts in response, but finally we'll do that too. Dushman ke team ke aadmi se self goal karane ki strategy bhi bahut strong hoti hai

 

[Alpha Fighter]

China hopes to make it the Chinese Ocean. With Pakistan as her assistant. With the resources at hand they will most likely succeed.

Well no country can ever successes if it far from its own land ....PAK navy is nothing as of now.

 

[Makarena]

just another yellow peril article from japanese paid article, ate by indian nationalists. China isn't seeking to dominate Indian Ocean, China only want to make sure its trade route protected from hostile powers. The US has thought us that might makes right, and has regularly threaten to disrupt China's trade route. It will be foolish for China not to prepare for the worst. Luckily China has Pakistan as an ally, and India who is disliked by almost all its neighbours in South Asia that make them want to hedge their security by getting close with China.

 

[SrNair]

A recent Wikistrat simulation (full disclosure: I am a senior analyst with Wikistrat, although I did not work on this project) investigated the future of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy. In particular, the report (written by David K. Schneider) examined China’s effort to establish control over the East Asian littoral (A2/AD and amphibious capabilities) and to establish a presence in the Indian Ocean.

Readers of The Diplomat will recognize familiar notes in the report’s discussion of the PLAN’s A2/AD efforts. The more interesting question evoked by Schneider is this: Can the PLAN make the Indian Ocean Chinese? Chinese growth depends on access to the Indian Ocean, from whence the PRC gets much of its energy and a large proportion of its natural resources. China has spent much of its economic and diplomatic capital on building relationships in the region, from Pakistan to Africa. However, the Indian Navy has the capacity to pose a critical threat to Chinese access. With a large fleet and local bases, India can threaten Chinese control of the Indian Ocean at its leisure.

The report also examined China’s relationship with Russia, which remains important for access to technology and expertise. Traditionally the junior partner in this relationship, the increasing size, sophistication, and range of the PLAN should tip the scales in the next few years. Schneider also emphasized the role that political coordination between Moscow and Beijing could improve the PLAN’s prospects for strategic action.

Perhaps most interesting, the report identifies several key caveats that underlie China’s effort to build a world-class navy. These include the health of long-term collaboration with Russia, the ability of the Chinese national innovation system to deliver advanced technology, the overall health of the Chinese economy, and the ability of the Chinese Communist Party and the PLAN to work well with one another. Of these, the first and the third pose the greatest concern; significant economic problems could severely crimp China’s effort at naval expansion, and a deterioration (for whatever reason) of relations with Russia would leave China in a very, very lonely place.

To this I would add the inherent positionality of naval affairs. The power of China’s navy depends directly on the strength of its competitors. If Chinese naval growth continues to inspire India, Japan, and the Southeast Asian countries to expand their own fleets, then Beijing has spent a lot of money for little relative gain. Although the comparison between the PRC and Wilhelmine Germany has been overdone, it’s nevertheless worth noting that Germany built a remarkable fleet that succeeded only in creating enemies, and in spurring foreign naval construction.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/can-...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

There will be huge chinese presence in Arabian sea and indian ocean to protect their interests, maybe their will be an air craft carrier stationed in that area, thats why Pak-china navy's are conducting so many excersices to familirize with each other tactics and improve communications

Well this is what Gawader is for...to give operation capabilities to PLAN in Arabian and Indian ocean

Using Gawadar as pivot point, PLAN can easily increase its area of influence in Arabian sea and Indian ocean......

Chinese have resources and will try to increase their presence in IOR region .
But the success would be ,perhaps almost similar to what OP mention in the article .
JMSDF and IN already started their modernization drive .
USN will also there .

just another yellow peril article from japanese paid article, ate by indian nationalists. China isn't seeking to dominate Indian Ocean, China only want to make sure its trade route protected from hostile powers. The US has thought us that might makes right, and has regularly threaten to disrupt China's trade route. It will be foolish for China not to prepare for the worst. Luckily China has Pakistan as an ally, and India who is disliked by almost all its neighbours in South Asia that make them want to hedge their security by getting close with China.

Perhaps dislike us and we dont care .But none of them dare to threat our national security by inviting some others .And for Pakistan , standard operating procedure is already in there .

 

[Peshwa]

just another yellow peril article from japanese paid article, ate by indian nationalists. China isn't seeking to dominate Indian Ocean, China only want to make sure its trade route protected from hostile powers. The US has thought us that might makes right, and has regularly threaten to disrupt China's trade route. It will be foolish for China not to prepare for the worst. Luckily China has Pakistan as an ally, and India who is disliked by almost all its neighbours in South Asia that make them want to hedge their security by getting close with China.

Isnt that what the article is about? That China's neighbors are vary of its intentions and the growth of PLAN will only cause an unintended effect of a regional buildup?
It's the curse of being the big boy in any region...

Only difference between China and India in this regard are the countries being befriended to achieve said objectives...

 

[nang2]

Does the writer know China hasn't made South China Sea Chinese, yet?

 

[mirage]

precedents will always be followed viz-a-viz chinese actions in the indian ocean and will be the reasons of future actions from Bharat in SOUTH CHINA SEA !

 

[mike2000 is back]

Does the writer know China hasn't made South China Sea Chinese, yet?

AGREE. THIS ARTICLE IS BULLSHIT. China has more than enough on its plate in SCS and pacific. It has to first stablish control of its immediate neighbourhood before thinking about even going any further.
To be honest, I dont think they have any intention to dominate IOR anyway.

 

[Brahmaputra Mail]

It's named Indian Ocean for a reason. Any country has the right to freedom of navigation in international waters. Apart from that if any country tries undermining India's security concerns in Indian Ocean then it is committing a big mistake.