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@Serpentine @haman10 @ResurgentIran @IR1907 @JEskandari

Lebanon is next, and then you guys following them. Or both at the same time. It's starting to become clear what is happening in the region. It is very difficult, I personally was against Assad/Maliki because they were capable of addressing local concerns. The US/Israel/UK/KSA are taking advantage of this situation. And due to ethnic demographics it easy to exploit the situation. There is too much stupidity amongst masses which is why horrible violence is being used. Why is why I tried saying in the beginning Syria should have been approached differently. It isn't just our part, obviously the scheme was being planned as well. Now we have everyone weakened, except Iran/Hezbollah and they are looking after Hezbollah next. Iran may be left alone because of lack of legal consensus/they also want Iran there to pitch Arab nations/Resistaance Axis plus MB in regional dispute to keep us preoccupied into this order.

Now Iraq is divided which some people like but it isn't good for Iranian interests. Even if Hezbollah can fight back it still will be bad, they want to damage Hezbollah/Lebanon very badly and this time they will target civilians much more to try to fully exploit tensions in Lebanon and get population against them. It is very complex and Hezbollah is now worrying to deal with multiple fronts which they can do but long term I don't know how it will play out. I don't know how Israel will declare war on Lebanon either but feel they want in the next two years but they are patient with the regional crisis.

Only people who can escape this regional mess is Hamas because Hamas has much experience in these attempts and secures Gaza without violence. They also have much local support due to PA experience in the past in Gaza. But, now the KSA/Egypt axis might try getting to either weaken Hamas more or try getting them to join their camp. Good thing is Hamas may not be forced to make a decision due to unity government taking financial responsibility.

Even though I have confidence in Hezbollah I fear if they get dragged into war it will be a war of attrition unless they resupply quickly. If they can't it will look similar to Gaza and not sure how Lebanese army would react.

This is why I think we need to think of new methods, Syria/Iraq are long gone and it's a tragedy what's occurring there. Iran starting from now needs to treat Syria as if it is completely in control of rebels and learn how to resupply Hezbollah in the instance of that. Hamas also needs urgent technological help since it is too difficult to smuggle nowadays. Hamas surprises me though because they never give up. They will get stronger again but they need more weapons/stronger ones/rockets with faster speed/anti-ship missiles/ammuntion for training(mortats/bullet/rpg rounds). Not sure where they can get this. I think Iran finds it risky to smuggle anti-ship missiles. Or Hamas does have them but not using them.

As creative as the resistance is, it needs to up the level still. But, I believe it's a waste to put any effort into Syria/Iraq. US now is trying to gain influence in Iraq. THe people are fed up with the situations as well. We should not take that seriously but find news to secure interests as I was saying from the beginning.

Your thoughts guys?
hmm ,lets see

hezbollah is strong enough to protect lebenon from possible zio strike , that being said , the war might be a disaster for lebanons economical perspective .

iran's allies namely iraq and syria are in all-out-war situation , so its not going so well for some of our allies in the region . Again , iraq has yet to call for help from iran . if they do so , which has an extremely low possibility , the situation is iraq would end in a couple of weeks .

US should be so happy right now . meanwhile iran is getting much more stronger both in economy and political influence . we'll have 2 fighter jets being unveiled in the next couple of years and numerous space launches in coming years .

the power balance will be restored in (i would say) 3 yrs from now

regarding the situation of hamas , let them do their thing and don't u ever worry abt them ;) .

iran/palestine now how to smuggle weapons their , and i promise u that hamas DID NOT show and use its most sophisticated weapons like Zelzal , iranian MANPADs and .....

so they are doing just fine :)
 
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@Serpentine @haman10 @ResurgentIran @IR1907 @JEskandari

Lebanon is next, and then you guys following them. Or both at the same time. It's starting to become clear what is happening in the region. It is very difficult, I personally was against Assad/Maliki because they were capable of addressing local concerns. The US/Israel/UK/KSA are taking advantage of this situation. And due to ethnic demographics it easy to exploit the situation. There is too much stupidity amongst masses which is why horrible violence is being used. Why is why I tried saying in the beginning Syria should have been approached differently. It isn't just our part, obviously the scheme was being planned as well. Now we have everyone weakened, except Iran/Hezbollah and they are looking after Hezbollah next. Iran may be left alone because of lack of legal consensus/they also want Iran there to pitch Arab nations/Resistaance Axis plus MB in regional dispute to keep us preoccupied into this order.

Now Iraq is divided which some people like but it isn't good for Iranian interests. Even if Hezbollah can fight back it still will be bad, they want to damage Hezbollah/Lebanon very badly and this time they will target civilians much more to try to fully exploit tensions in Lebanon and get population against them. It is very complex and Hezbollah is now worrying to deal with multiple fronts which they can do but long term I don't know how it will play out. I don't know how Israel will declare war on Lebanon either but feel they want in the next two years but they are patient with the regional crisis.

Only people who can escape this regional mess is Hamas because Hamas has much experience in these attempts and secures Gaza without violence. They also have much local support due to PA experience in the past in Gaza. But, now the KSA/Egypt axis might try getting to either weaken Hamas more or try getting them to join their camp. Good thing is Hamas may not be forced to make a decision due to unity government taking financial responsibility.

Even though I have confidence in Hezbollah I fear if they get dragged into war it will be a war of attrition unless they resupply quickly. If they can't it will look similar to Gaza and not sure how Lebanese army would react.

This is why I think we need to think of new methods, Syria/Iraq are long gone and it's a tragedy what's occurring there. Iran starting from now needs to treat Syria as if it is completely in control of rebels and learn how to resupply Hezbollah in the instance of that. Hamas also needs urgent technological help since it is too difficult to smuggle nowadays. Hamas surprises me though because they never give up. They will get stronger again but they need more weapons/stronger ones/rockets with faster speed/anti-ship missiles/ammuntion for training(mortats/bullet/rpg rounds). Not sure where they can get this. I think Iran finds it risky to smuggle anti-ship missiles. Or Hamas does have them but not using them.

As creative as the resistance is, it needs to up the level still. But, I believe it's a waste to put any effort into Syria/Iraq. US now is trying to gain influence in Iraq. THe people are fed up with the situations as well. We should not take that seriously but find news to secure interests as I was saying from the beginning.

Your thoughts guys?

The problem in Syria is too complex. I dont think Iran care about Assad personally. He's an Alawi but you also have to realise that Assad's government is staunchly secular, whilst the Iranian government is anything but. I guarantee you that the mullahs probably view Assad as a "kafir".
What I am trying to say here that Iran's commitment to Syrian government is not at all based on ideology, but rather its a strategic alliance.
The big problem is that when we say "rebels", who exactly are we talking about? They are so many groups that are in conflict with each other. Just the other day I heard ISIS declared war on rebel-held territory, and ordered to chop heads of those rebels.
So this is the issue. The "rebels", represent total disintegration of the state of Syria. How can Iran reasonably ally themselves with such an entity, that its not even a singular entity but multiple that are at war with each other?
The Syrian government, bad as it may be, is still a state actor that have kept most of the institutions still intact.

Im positive there will be a new Israel-Hezbollah war. I have no doubt, as Israeli detterence are somewhat weakened.
I think in the span of 1-3 years, it will boil over and shit will truly hit the fan.
It all depends on how well Hezbollah has bunkered their arsenal. Last time they bunkered up extremely well.
I mean they managed to almost destroy an Israeli frigate at sea in 2006, which really shook Israel and the US.
 
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The problem in Syria is too complex. I dont think Iran care about Assad personally. He's an Alawi but you also have to realise that Assad's government is staunchly secular, whilst the Iranian government is anything but. I guarantee you that the mullahs probably view Assad as a "kafir".
What I am trying to say here that Iran's commitment to Syrian government is not at all based on ideology, but rather its a strategic alliance.
The big problem is that when we say "rebels", who exactly are we talking about? They are so many groups that are in conflict with each other. Just the other day I heard ISIS declared war on rebel-held territory, and ordered to chop heads of those rebels.
So this is the issue. The "rebels", represent total disintegration of the state of Syria. How can Iran reasonably ally themselves with such an entity, that its not even a singular entity but multiple that are at war with each other?
The Syrian government, bad as it may be, is still a state actor that have kept most of the institutions still intact.

Im positive there will be a new Israel-Hezbollah war. I have no doubt, as Israeli detterence are somewhat weakened.
I think in the span of 1-3 years, it will boil over and shit will truly hit the fan.
It all depends on how well Hezbollah has bunkered their arsenal. Last time they bunkered up extremely well.
I mean they managed to almost destroy an Israeli frigate at sea in 2006, which really shook Israel and the US.

Good answer. I like your avatar btw. :lol:

If the situation does change in Syria and opposition forces gain upperhand do you think it will be possible to secure interests?
 
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Good answer. I like your avatar btw. :lol:

If the situation does change in Syria and opposition forces gain upperhand do you think it will be possible to secure interests?

I think Iran should mediate between the opposition and the government forces, to come to a peaceful conclusion. But again, when we say opposition, which opposition are we talking about? There are just too many tribal groups that have conflicting interests and as I said represent total disintegration of the state apparatus. Libya would be a good example, with their endless tribal wars after fall of Ghadaffi. Not that Ghadaffi was such a sweetheart, but Libya is far worse off now after NATOs war.

Iran must mediate between the two (or more correctly between Syrian government and multiple other opposition groups that are reasonable) parties.
 
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I think Iran should mediate between the opposition and the government forces, to come to a peaceful conclusion. But again, when we say opposition, which opposition are we talking about? There are just too many tribal groups that have conflicting interests and as I said represent total disintegration of the state apparatus. Libya would be a good example, with their endless tribal wars after fall of Ghadaffi. Not that Ghadaffi was such a sweetheart, but Libya is far worse off now after NATOs war.

Iran must mediate between the two (or more correctly between Syrian government and multiple other opposition groups that are reasonable) parties.
I think Iran should get out of it all together and things will be just perfect. The Persian expansion ideology is obsolete, and will fail no matter how hard they try to revive it.

They don't give a damn about Shiasim, Alawisim, Sunnisim, Israel, or even Islam itself. That's the Persian personality which is always unstable in its religious believes, and can't get enough of pessimism, hatred, and self-victimization. The main goal for Iran right now is to live out the old Persian dreams. Noting more.
 
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I think Iran should get out of it all together and things will be just perfect. The Persian expansion ideology is obsolete, and will fail no matter how hard they try to revive it.

They don't give a damn about Shiasim, Alawisim, Sunnisim, Israel, or even Islam itself. That's the Persian personality which is always unstable in its religious believes, and can't get enough of pessimism, hatred, revenge, and self-victimization. The main goal for Iran right now is to live out the old Persian dreams. Noting more.

Okay.

If as you say it is about Persian expansion to them, then what is about to us(If you consider me part of your axis, because honestly I have a hard time trying to associate myself with Arab leadership)?
 
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I think Iran should get out of it all together and things will be just perfect. The Persian expansion ideology is obsolete, and will fail no matter how hard they try to revive it.

They don't give a damn about Shiasim, Alawisim, Sunnisim, Israel, or even Islam itself. That's the Persian personality which is always unstable in its religious believes, and can't get enough of pessimism, hatred, revenge, and self-victimization. The main goal for Iran right now is to live out the old Persian dreams. Noting more.



U need a psychiatrist.
 
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