Approach to Balochistan conflict

[Aijaz Kolachi]

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The conflict is going nowhere, status quo is helping no one. We are in need of economic revival which CPEC offers but can’t utilize it due to security threats from Baloch insurgents. Either we go on full operation searchlight or do peace initiative with them to end the 7 decades conflict and this 5th rebellion.

 

[ARMalik]

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The conflict is going nowhere, status quo is helping no one. We are in need of economic revival which CPEC offers but can’t utilize it due to security threats from Baloch insurgents. Either we go on full operation searchlight or do peace initiative with them to end the 7 decades conflict and this 5th rebellion.

There is no conflict in Baluchistan. There is a WAR imposed by Indian terrorists, and as usual the Cowardly, dastardly Establishment of Pakistan and its Military is bending over and getting hammered daily. I am not surprised since this is the same country which keeps shamelessly quiet while its Kashmir brothers are getting butchered daily !

 

[peagle]

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The conflict is going nowhere, status quo is helping no one. We are in need of economic revival which CPEC offers but can’t utilize it due to security threats from Baloch insurgents. Either we go on full operation searchlight or do peace initiative with them to end the 7 decades conflict and this 5th rebellion.

Your voting options are flawed.
Peace initiative and concessions are not the same thing and should not be lumbered together. Concessions can be part of a peace initiative, but not necessarily by default, and if concessions are from both sides then that is the whole purpose of a peace initiative.

Peace initiative and concessions are two different issues.

Baluchistan has had troubles before, when Pakistan was a much weaker state. There was hardly any infrastructure on the ground and limited capacity in the armed forces, other then fighting with India. The situation was dealt with before, it will be dealt with again.

The global war on terror has complicated things because there were too many regional and domestic issues to deal with at the same time, it diverts the attention.
This so called terror war is coming to a close, because America bahadur has decided to concentrate on China. I do not see the trouble in Baluchistan lasting for long, it seems the state is now able to divert active attention to his situation, and it will be sorted very soon.

 

[Goritoes]

Apne bache hai, 2-4 bomb dhamake ker ke chand soo log maar diye tu kia hua ? Larai Larai maaf karo Allah ka ghar saaf karo... This is Pakistan's Establishments Policy on national security for last couple of years under a Dumb PM, and impotent COAS.

 

[S.Y.A]

Pakistan needs to take a look at the Dhofar Rebellion of Oman. Situation here is a bit similar to that one. a multi-pronged approach is needed:

• Increase in capacity+capability of FC: includes better training, better arms, drone and QRF backup
• Strengthening of intelligence network, use drones and intel network for a proactive approach, instead of reacting to an attack
• Deployment of SSG with FC
• Peace initiative: this includes a lot of work e.g. general pardon for all those who lay down arms; will include rehabilitation and employment opportunities. building educational infra (must have highly pro-pakistani teachers, also includes replacing existing teachers in local/regional unis, school, colleges with pro-pakistan instructors), health infra (similar pro-paksitan presence), road linkages etc. setting up of small household industries.
• Stricter regulation of Iran and Afghan border: this doesnt mean stopping the "smuggling" (people depend on that to survive as there are no other opportunities), rather regulating it, levying taxes etc. and letting the people go with their money.
• And all of this must be done in the backdrop of a heavy media campaign, that its the state that is providing security and safety, its the state that is providing health and education, its the state that is providing job opportunities etc.

Apne bache hai, 2-4 bomb dhamake ker ke chand soo log maar diye tu kia hua ? Larai Larai maaf karo Allah ka ghar saaf karo... This is Pakistan's Establishments Policy on national security for last couple of years under a Dumb PM, and impotent COAS.

this is the only way. they arent outsiders. they are funded and trained by outsiders, sure. but they themselves arent. keep using blind force, and they and their children and their children will keep on hating pakistan and anything associated with it. show them what incentives await them if they are a part of mainstream system, and they will slowly but surely start rejoining you.

 

[fitpOsitive]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484453468056207362

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484455790119374848

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484457481879396355

The conflict is going nowhere, status quo is helping no one. We are in need of economic revival which CPEC offers but can’t utilize it due to security threats from Baloch insurgents. Either we go on full operation searchlight or do peace initiative with them to end the 7 decades conflict and this 5th rebellion.

Give them their share in jobs and leave Punjab centric thinking. Larkon ko job nahi milygi tu woh woh karaingy Jo woh kerahy hain.
Simple.
Ager abhi bhi bat samajh nahi aarahi tu Punjab per Indian kabzy k bad zaroor aajaeyga. Usdin pta chalyga keh is mulk k log aik dosray k sath Kia Kia kerahy thy.

 

[R Wing]

Pakistan needs to take a look at the Dhofar Rebellion of Oman. Situation here is a bit similar to that one. a multi-pronged approach is needed:

• Increase in capacity+capability of FC: includes better training, better arms, drone and QRF backup
• Strengthening of intelligence network, use drones and intel network for a proactive approach, instead of reacting to an attack
• Deployment of SSG with FC
• Peace initiative: this includes a lot of work e.g. general pardon for all those who lay down arms; will include rehabilitation and employment opportunities. building educational infra (must have highly pro-pakistani teachers, also includes replacing existing teachers in local/regional unis, school, colleges with pro-pakistan instructors), health infra (similar pro-paksitan presence), road linkages etc. setting up of small household industries.
• Stricter regulation of Iran and Afghan border: this doesnt mean stopping the "smuggling" (people depend on that to survive as there are no other opportunities), rather regulating it, levying taxes etc. and letting the people go with their money.
• And all of this must be done in the backdrop of a heavy media campaign, that its the state that is providing security and safety, its the state that is providing health and education, its the state that is providing job opportunities etc.

this is the only way. they arent outsiders. they are funded and trained by outsiders, sure. but they themselves arent. keep using blind force, and they and their children and their children will keep on hating pakistan and anything associated with it. show them what incentives await them if they are a part of mainstream system, and they will slowly but surely start rejoining you.

Good tactics, maybe even operations (and everything you've mentioned is needed) --- but your take lacks the key ingredient to an effective strategy. Strategies work based on realpolitik and deterrence. Deterrence = peace and stability.

To increase stability in Balochistan, you have to find a way to deter and dissuade India. Or, in the parlance of deterrence theory, you have to raise the cost by introducing the fear of consequences. You can do whatever you want internally (and you have to do a lot more, as you've pointed out) --- but it's hard to get things where you want them to be with US-Indian interests coinciding in destabilizing Balochistan. Deter R&AW + do everything you said = chance at progress.

 

[Menace2Society]

There's only 12 million people there. Round all the Afghans living there and throw them back across the border.

 

[Titanium100]

There's only 12 million people there. Round all the Afghans living there and throw them back across the border.

Balochistan and Afghans what do they have in common this is BLAAF related thread? Did Afghans happen to rape your loved one, took your girlfriend or happen to take your wife from you..

 

[Menace2Society]

Balochistan and Afghans what do they have in common this is BLAAF related thread? Did Afghans happen to raped your loved one, took your girlfriend or happen to take your wife from you

I look at their track record in FATA, they did the same in Baluchistan. If you look at their movement a lot of them go to Quetta. Anywhere they go bomb blasts and insurgencies follow.

Majority of Baluch are poor and peaceful. We know who the troublemakers are.

 

[Titanium100]

I look at their track record in FATA, they did the same in Baluchistan. If you look at their movement a lot of them go to Quetta. Anywhere they go bomb blasts and insurgencies follow.

Majority of Baluch are poor and peaceful. We know who the troublemakers are.

Then who is BLAAF?

 

[Menace2Society]

Then who is BLAAF?

small fish

 

[fitpOsitive]

There's only 12 million people there. Round all the Afghans living there and throw them back across the border.

Kitnon ko nikalogy? Balochon ko Balochistan se nikal dogy? Dimagh thek Hai?

 

[S.Y.A]

Good tactics, maybe even operations (and everything you've mentioned is needed) --- but your take lacks the key ingredient to an effective strategy. Strategies work based on realpolitik and deterrence. Deterrence = peace and stability.

To increase stability in Balochistan, you have to find a way to deter and dissuade India. Or, in the parlance of deterrence theory, you have to raise the cost by introducing the fear of consequences. You can do whatever you want internally (and you have to do a lot more, as you've pointed out) --- but it's hard to get things where you want them to be with US-Indian interests coinciding in destabilizing Balochistan. Deter R&AW + do everything you said = chance at progress.

nope. remove the causes of dissent, and india will find no one willing to pick up arms (political sloganeering is another thing). that's why I gave the example of Dhofar Rebellion. it had support from countries like USSR, even Saudi Arabia. Oman never did anything to make ussr or saudis pay, they simply removed the causes that led to rebellion.

 

[TheSolution]

Are we all on the same page here, that @Titanium100 is an Afghan living in Denmark?