After Mig-29, Naval Rafale fighter jets might serve Indian Navy .:IDRW

[sathya]

I hope it's not a case of bigger promise to let go the current one.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Abingdonboy @Vauban

A small line in Indian Express..

Inking of the IGA will be succeeded by follow-on contracts between private entities, which involves a joint venture between Dassault, the French aircraft manufacturer, and an Indian major.

PM Narendra Modi’s hotline to Francois Hollande broke Rafale ice | The Indian Express

You wanna guess what it means ???

I hope it's not a case of bigger promise to let go the current one.

If that happens we will get into crisis mode big time.. come 2022 we are looking at 25-26 active squadron for IAF.. Its gonna get messy and if desperate times desperate measures comes, we will end up buying without much negotiation ability.. we will end up paying much larger sum over time due to intrinsic package details which we cant negotiate much due to limited time window for urgency.

I just hope we can get LCA Mark1A rolling big time.. IAF needs a boost in numbers asap.. and GOI needs to wake up big time if it wants at least credible fleet strength..

We also need to procure and sort out spares issues of MKI.. need to raise it to 75% quickly.. if needed buy 5 years spares now itself and raise it to 10 years like we are planning for Rafales

 

[Abingdonboy]

Why not upgrade the Mig-29 K on theMig-35 standards and buy them ? Instead of going for Rafales with double cost, I think Mig-35s navy version will be fine plus navy will have more experience with them. I still feel Indian navy should go for either F-35 or Mig-35(develop navy version with Russia), one is 5th gen fighter so on par compared to Rafales in terms of tech and another one is affordable and comparable to Rafale.

Let's not get our wires crossed. The Rafale-Ms/F-35Cs will be bought ONLY for the IAC-2 and future carriers, the IAC-1 and Vikramditya will remain with their MiG-29K (and in future N-LCAs also) airwings. The MiG-29K and MiG-35 can NOT fly from the CATOBAR carriers that the IN is designing.

Fake news no Rafale M as of now as orders of mig29K are not complete and some are thinking of its successor

if they really want a next gen Mig29K then replace its engines with GE414EPE, naval version of EL-2052 with a new weapons package

All of the above but also let's live in reality- Russia will never allow the MiG-29K to have an AMERICAN engine.

Given the price, I'd gladly take F-35C over Rafales any day.

Based on no concrete price for the Rafale or F-35 that is a bold prediction my friend.

There is one obstacle.. The make in India program
IF the MII deal part goes through, i expect the work for IN is cut out. The IN plan is 4 phased

Phase 1 is getting carrier fighters for immediate 3 CBGs by 2030 (INS Vikrant and IAC 1 2018 delivery and IAC 1 follow on 2028 delivery) - I see a max 2 squadron of Mig 29K in Vikramaditya but surely 5 squadrons for the IAC1 two ships (2.5 sq each average implying close to 40 birds at 16 per sqd) - So 16x5= 80 Rafales M

Phase 2 will be Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

Phase 3 will be planned procurement of 3 squadron each for 2 IAC 2 N capable one meaning 6 squadrons or 16x6 = 96 birds

Phase 4 will be the planned shore based training and entire coastal network under IN requiring coverage. That will see from West coast to east coast 3 squadrons each in each side so 6 squadrons. They also act as training depots.
A&N will get 2 dedicated rafale M squadron under IN
The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over four important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli. A squadron each at individual places or around them

The Rafale M under Phase 4 will mean - 6+2 = 8 squadrons
8x16 = 128 Jets

So total potential here is
Phase 1+ Phase 3+Phase 4 = 80+ 96+ 128 = 304

This plan is not for 2030 but more like 2042-45 timeline
Other jets would be
Mig 29K - 45
LCA MK1 Naval - @16/squadron - 64
So approx - 304+45+64 = 413 approx
This is inline with my earlier assessment where i said IN is looking at 600 numbers of fixed wing fleet by 2042-45 types.
(when you add the other jets )

This is the GOLDEN EGG LAYING GOOSE

So now you can understand why LM, Boeing, Dassault or Sukhoi wants a part of this pie. Take it from me, if Dassault established the MII Line, the plan goes through with a much higher probability as IN wants MII partner only.. No off the shelf purchase types.

and in case MII comes in then yes with 90% availability clause DM MP has eliminated the need of almost 2 squadrons jets due to higher fleet availability benefit. So instead of 189 we may see more like 144-162. We may eventually end up at 189 if other projects are delayed of course.

So Dassault and France main target is not just IAF, thats just half of IN's requirement.. The chief one is IN.

The thing about the IN is that they DO have long term plans (not just 10-15 years down the line but 20+) and work towards their objectives, with a large degree of success in recent times (now the funds are being handed to them). The IAF has a sanctioned SQN strength but NO clue how to to realise this capacity nor any firm commitment of when they will acheive it. They are a far more reactive managment type and the IA, well the less said about their foreward thinking (or lack thereof) the better.

Long term their objective has always been 5-6 CBGs, I see a lot of people questioning this everytime I post it and state that 3 are sufficent (1 for each seaboard with 1 in refit at any one time) but the IN has had thr 5-6 CBG vision since the late 80s if you can beleive it. Not to mention the IAF and IN are in agreement that long term the IN will have to take over some degree of QRA duties (for coastal areas) whilst the IAF protects the skies over land. This would provide comprehensive aerial cover for the entire Indian airspace and over the Indian EEZ (right now, there are some gaps-manly concentrated in the interior of the country) as a result of the IAF's limited capacity. This is why the IAF has started opening airbases in the South of India.

@Abingdonboy @Vauban

A small line in Indian Express..

Inking of the IGA will be succeeded by follow-on contracts between private entities, which involves a joint venture between Dassault, the French aircraft manufacturer, and an Indian major.

PM Narendra Modi’s hotline to Francois Hollande broke Rafale ice | The Indian Express

You wanna guess what it means ???

Hmm, could that be exactly what we have been predicting for a while now?

 

[sathya]

@Abingdonboy @Vauban

A small line in Indian Express..

Inking of the IGA will be succeeded by follow-on contracts between private entities, which involves a joint venture between Dassault, the French aircraft manufacturer, and an Indian major.

PM Narendra Modi’s hotline to Francois Hollande broke Rafale ice | The Indian Express

You wanna guess what it means ???



If that happens we will get into crisis mode big time.. come 2022 we are looking at 25-26 active squadron for IAF.. Its gonna get messy and if desperate times desperate measures comes, we will end up buying without much negotiation ability.. we will end up paying much larger sum over time due to intrinsic package details which we cant negotiate much due to limited time window for urgency.

I just hope we can get LCA Mark1A rolling big time.. IAF needs a boost in numbers asap.. and GOI needs to wake up big time if it wants at least credible fleet strength..

We also need to procure and sort out spares issues of MKI.. need to raise it to 75% quickly.. if needed buy 5 years spares now itself and raise it to 10 years like we are planning for Rafales

From what we have seen so far, before any foreign visit or a foreigner visit

There is a talk , then build up, then super build up, then super duper build up
Finally all MoU , nothing concrete..

All deals that have been signed so far went off quietly ...
I ll take jan26 to be the litmus test. I won't hope any promises to become true after that.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

From what we have seen so far, before any foreign visit or a foreigner visit

There is a talk , then build up, then super build up, then super duper build up
Finally all MoU , nothing concrete..

All deals that have been signed so far went off quietly ...
I ll take jan26 to be the litmus test. I won't hope any promises to become true after that.

Fully agree with you bro..

 

[Abingdonboy]

News is spreading
France to pitch for naval version of Rafale - The Economic Times

France to pitch for naval version of Rafale
By PTI | 20 Jan, 2016, 07.28PM IST


NEW DELHI: A high-level French team is set to meet senior officials of the Navy soon to brief them about the naval version of fighter jet Rafale as India works on the design of its next indigenous aircraft carrier - Vishal.

Defence sources said that during the meeting, the French side will give a presentation on the various aspects of the naval version of Rafale and the benefits it will bring at a time when the Air Force will operate Rafale too.

The Air Force is set to acquire 36 Rafales under a government-to government deal.

The development comes when the Navy is in the design phase for the next aircraft carrier.

Sources said that India has written to four countries, including France, seeking proposals for the design of the aircraft carrier that will have over 50 planes on board.

While India currently operates two aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya and INS Viraat, the latter is set to be decommissioned soon. The country's first indigenous aircraft carrier Vikrant is already under construction in Kochi and is scheduled to be handed over by end of 2018.

Sources said that one of the basis of the design will be the aircraft component of the carrier.

"At this moment, we are doing with what we have," the sources said. The Navy will deploy MiG 29K fighter aircraft on Vikrant. However, it is not clear if the Navy will stick to MiG 29K or go in for a new aircraft for Vishal.

As per the Navy's plan, Vishal would be a 65,000 tonnes aircraft carrier and will be about 300 metres long and about 70 metres in width.

While the exact propulsion system for it has not beeen decided, sources indicated it could well be a nuclear one.

"Given the long life cycle of a carrier, about 50 years, the cost of the nuclear propulsion will be recovered as nuclear means longer duration and better availability," the sources said.
++++++++++++++++++

But IN does not have Mig29Ks for INS Vikrant or IAC1 unless we order new ones.. Presently its 45 and almost bulk goes to Vikramaditya..(30 in that ACC).. Either we order more or its a new bird for IAC 1

2 air wings (for two carriers) with some remaining ashore for training purposes and inevitably sub-optimal availbility will stretch 45 birds very,very thin indeed. Probably makes sense just to go for more MiG-29Ks at this point though for all STOBAR carriers of the IN. The shame being that there is no MII element of the MiG-29K.

At least 2 Vishal class will be built (probably more as the IN will settle on this class for a while and just churn them out like the US does with their Supercarriers) and with each able to hold 50 fighters along with the requirement for ashore units/SQNs for training purposes- the IN has an undeniable HUGE upcoming requirement for future fighters that simply won't be the N-LCA or MiG-29K.

From what we have seen so far, before any foreign visit or a foreigner visit

There is a talk , then build up, then super build up, then super duper build up
Finally all MoU , nothing concrete..

All deals that have been signed so far went off quietly ...
I ll take jan26 to be the litmus test. I won't hope any promises to become true after that.

Personally I expect very little from the visit in terms of the Rafale, defence deals are almost never clinched during foreign visits by the GoI- it just seems to be an unoffical policy.

Paris, April 2015 seemed to be an outlier to that though...

 

[faithfulguy]

Sort of. Mig-29Ks and NLCAs( mix of them) are meant for Ins Vikramaditya and Ins Vikrant( to be commissioned in 2018) but after that Ins Vishaal will be a 65000-70000 tons CATOBAR CV and thus will require aircrafts with this configuration ( F-35, Rafale-M, Sea Gripen). Though this will take time as its not required anytime soon and possible aircraft deal is still 5-7 years away.

PS: Indian naval air arm plan to operate them from shore based facilities too and not just from carrier. All 3 CVs put together( once inducted) will not use more than 70-80 fighters but they will get around 150 fighters.

India can make up its short comings in AF squadrons with naval air units.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The Rafale-Ms/F-35Cs will be bought ONLY for the IAC-2 and future carriers, the IAC-1 and Vikramditya will remain with their MiG-29K (and in future N-LCAs also) airwings

Are you sure about that bro.. 45mig29k as of now and no naval LCA.

Ins Vikramaditya needs 30mig 29k and rest 15 are basically spares and training.

IAC1 can fit 30 fixed wing of size mig29k and around 36of Rafale M.

Unless we order more mig29ks or naval LCA comes to production stage which is a bit tough as naval LCA program does have UC issues for which they need Dassault help, iac1 is without jets..
On top for those 30 jets u will surely order spares and training jets extra a close to 45-50 jet deal.

Now we do have option of another 45mig29k but we have not indicated its exercising nor we have LCA naval reaching us in next 5 years in required numbers..

How will IAC 1 then will have its fighters then.. Even mig29k orders won't rush and deliver in 3 flat years and will take at least 5-7 years for whole 45lot.

 

[sathya]

Will France or India return happy with just participation of French force in R day without Rafale deal ?

It will be considered colossal failure than anything .

At the least additional scorpenes or nuclear reactors should be signed,

Otherwise I am going sabbatical

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Will France or India return happy with just participation of French force in R day without Rafale deal ?

It will be considered colossal failure than anything .

At the least additional scorpenes or nuclear reactors should be signed,

Otherwise I am going sabbatical

Dcns is cmg so additional scorpene with mesma aip 2 in numbers may be ordered.. Civilian nuclear reactor deal on cards

NSA Ajit Doval was in France last week for finalizing few things like these above. Grapevine talk is why you need NSA to do all that.. It could have been from MOD side and may be someone junior for basic finalization.

Some point out the hush hush talks of something which requires NSA Doval personal attention.. Something more strategic that's his domain of expertise....

 

[Abingdonboy]

Are you sure about that bro.. 45mig29k as of now and no naval LCA.

Ins Vikramaditya needs 30mig 29k and rest 15 are basically spares and training.

IAC1 can fit 30 fixed wing of size mig29k and around 36of Rafale M.

Unless we order more mig29ks or naval LCA comes to production stage which is a bit tough as naval LCA program does have UC issues for which they need Dassault help, iac1 is without jets..
On top for those 30 jets u will surely order spares and training jets extra a close to 45-50 jet deal.

Now we do have option of another 45mig29k but we have not indicated its exercising nor we have LCA naval reaching us in next 5 years in required numbers..

How will IAC 1 then will have its fighters then.. Even mig29k orders won't rush and deliver in 3 flat years and will take at least 5-7 years for whole 45lot.

I think I have addressed that in my post above bro

As I said, I think the best option is to standardise the STOBAR carriers' airwings on the MiG-29K/N-LCA mix. This will simplify training and logistical issues. So another batch of MiG-29K+KUB should be ordered- the IN is already up and running with this type and will have few issues intergrating it with the IAC-1.

On the other hand if you want Rafale-Ms for the IAC-1 you'd need them today. Remember that timelines are important- the lead in time for the Rafale is, what, 3 years? And the IN hasn't even tested the Rafale-M themselves, let alone begun negotiatons with Dassualt for it. This means the IN is at least 6 years away from having the Rafale-M in their hands (ie 2022) and with the IAC-1 being ready to enter service by 2019 (with sea trails begining in late 2017/early 2018) this 3 year wait (at least) is pretty unpalatable- a carrier without its airwing is not only a shameful sight but also rightfully open to the CAG's fury. 10% of a carrier's life sat idel without an airwing would represent a collossal failure in planning.

Also note, that I am being rather conservative with thrse figures and haven't even factored in the induction period the IN would have with its Rafales. Remember that whilst the MiG-29Ks were delivered to the IN in 2010, it wasn't until 2013 that INAS 303 "BLACK PANTHERS" was offically commisioned- from 2010-13 the MIG-29Ks formed part of the ITFU that pushed the MiG-29Ks to their limits and wrote the employment doctrine of the IN for their MiG-29Ks (much like what the TACDE does for the IAF).


The alternative to the above is to simply split the 45 units in service between 2 carriers and ashore commitments- meaning both carriers would permently be flying with degraded capabilities but at least it would be something.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I don't give these newswalas 2 cents after Russia visit. We even didn't confirmed more BMP2s and T90s which would have been deployed on mountains up north.

Untill I get a source from PIB or MoD statement all this remains mere speculations.
7 Years of Rafale Home Coming should have taught us to hold on our horses till something actually is done.

What I personally feel that IN will stick to Mig29K for the STOBAR carriers .

 

[SR-91]

Why not upgrade the Mig-29 K on theMig-35 standards and buy them ? Instead of going for Rafales with double cost, I think Mig-35s navy version will be fine plus navy will have more experience with them. I still feel Indian navy should go for either F-35 or Mig-35(develop navy version with Russia), one is 5th gen fighter so on par compared to Rafales in terms of tech and another one is affordable and comparable to Rafale.

Cannot put all of eggs in one basket..

2............While Russians are cheap but not so reliable when it come to supplying parts and the have tendency to raise prices in the middle of contracts.

Theses are the main reasons why we are picking Rafales.

 

[帅的一匹]

Buy...buy....buy.....buy endless........./.

 

[Mirza Jatt]

Maa kasam..Kismat ho toh Indian Navy jaisi...