After Mig-29, Naval Rafale fighter jets might serve Indian Navy .:IDRW

[knight11]

Actually IN would be getting both RAFALEs and F-35Cs

??? Source of your assumption
??? Answer CISMOA, LSA, BICA

There is one obstacle.. The make in India program
IF the MII deal part goes through, i expect the work for IN is cut out. The IN plan is 4 phased

Phase 1 is getting carrier fighters for immediate 3 CBGs by 2030 (INS Vikrant and IAC 1 2018 delivery and IAC 1 follow on 2028 delivery) - I see a max 2 squadron of Mig 29K in Vikramaditya but surely 5 squadrons for the IAC1 two ships (2.5 sq each average implying close to 40 birds at 16 per sqd) - So 16x5= 80 Rafales M

Phase 2 will be Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

Phase 3 will be planned procurement of 3 squadron each for 2 IAC 2 N capable one meaning 6 squadrons or 16x6 = 96 birds

Phase 4 will be the planned shore based training and entire coastal network under IN requiring coverage. That will see from West coast to east coast 3 squadrons each in each side so 6 squadrons. They also act as training depots.
A&N will get 2 dedicated rafale M squadron under IN
The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over four important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli. A squadron each at individual places or around them

The Rafale M under Phase 4 will mean - 6+2 = 8 squadrons
8x16 = 128 Jets

So total potential here is
Phase 1+ Phase 3+Phase 4 = 80+ 96+ 128 = 304

This plan is not for 2030 but more like 2042-45 timeline
Other jets would be
Mig 29K - 45
LCA MK1 Naval - @16/squadron - 64
So approx - 304+45+64 = 413 approx
This is inline with my earlier assessment where i said IN is looking at 600 numbers of fixed wing fleet by 2042-45 types.
(when you add the other jets )

This is the GOLDEN EGG LAYING GOOSE

So now you can understand why LM, Boeing, Dassault or Sukhoi wants a part of this pie. Take it from me, if Dassault established the MII Line, the plan goes through with a much higher probability as IN wants MII partner only.. No off the shelf purchase types.

and in case MII comes in then yes with 90% availability clause DM MP has eliminated the need of almost 2 squadrons jets due to higher fleet availability benefit. So instead of 189 we may see more like 144-162. We may eventually end up at 189 if other projects are delayed of course.

So Dassault and France main target is not just IAF, thats just half of IN's requirement.. The chief one is IN.



As i said above

Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

I dont see LCA MK2 naval version happening as longer legs demand means AMCA Naval getting a much needed number boost.. the LCA MK1 Naval will serve as the plugging of gaps as well as mastering the tech like UC and landing gear strengthening and many other technologies needed for naval AMCA

The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over three important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli.
A squadron each at individual places or around them.



Yes sure shot guaranteed. A&N will see dedicated 2 squadrons of IN and thats what i had shown under phase 4 plans

Excellent and detailed answer and thanks, but a question which is revolving around my head for many days
Rafale-M -- OK
EMAL ?? Or do you see india developing Steam based Catapull with the help of Russians

 

[ghauri05]

bhaio pehle 36 to le lo....seedha 300 pe pohnch gye...

 

[Hephaestus]

There is one obstacle.. The make in India program
IF the MII deal part goes through, i expect the work for IN is cut out. The IN plan is 4 phased

Phase 1 is getting carrier fighters for immediate 3 CBGs by 2030 (INS Vikrant and IAC 1 2018 delivery and IAC 1 follow on 2028 delivery) - I see a max 2 squadron of Mig 29K in Vikramaditya but surely 5 squadrons for the IAC1 two ships (2.5 sq each average implying close to 40 birds at 16 per sqd) - So 16x5= 80 Rafales M

Phase 2 will be Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

Phase 3 will be planned procurement of 3 squadron each for 2 IAC 2 N capable one meaning 6 squadrons or 16x6 = 96 birds

Phase 4 will be the planned shore based training and entire coastal network under IN requiring coverage. That will see from West coast to east coast 3 squadrons each in each side so 6 squadrons. They also act as training depots.
A&N will get 2 dedicated rafale M squadron under IN
The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over four important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli. A squadron each at individual places or around them

The Rafale M under Phase 4 will mean - 6+2 = 8 squadrons
8x16 = 128 Jets

So total potential here is
Phase 1+ Phase 3+Phase 4 = 80+ 96+ 128 = 304

This plan is not for 2030 but more like 2042-45 timeline
Other jets would be
Mig 29K - 45
LCA MK1 Naval - @16/squadron - 64
So approx - 304+45+64 = 413 approx
This is inline with my earlier assessment where i said IN is looking at 600 numbers of fixed wing fleet by 2042-45 types.
(when you add the other jets )

This is the GOLDEN EGG LAYING GOOSE

So now you can understand why LM, Boeing, Dassault or Sukhoi wants a part of this pie. Take it from me, if Dassault established the MII Line, the plan goes through with a much higher probability as IN wants MII partner only.. No off the shelf purchase types.

and in case MII comes in then yes with 90% availability clause DM MP has eliminated the need of almost 2 squadrons jets due to higher fleet availability benefit. So instead of 189 we may see more like 144-162. We may eventually end up at 189 if other projects are delayed of course.

So Dassault and France main target is not just IAF, thats just half of IN's requirement.. The chief one is IN.



As i said above

Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

I dont see LCA MK2 naval version happening as longer legs demand means AMCA Naval getting a much needed number boost.. the LCA MK1 Naval will serve as the plugging of gaps as well as mastering the tech like UC and landing gear strengthening and many other technologies needed for naval AMCA

The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over three important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli.
A squadron each at individual places or around them.



Yes sure shot guaranteed. A&N will see dedicated 2 squadrons of IN and thats what i had shown under phase 4 plans

IF the IN go for Rafale-Ms, the total number of Rafales in India will far exceed 189.


Well even if India had done that, the Rafale-M would still have to be bought- the Mirage 2000s can't operate from carriers.


It' rather logical. IAC-2 is going to be a CATOBAR carrier, for that the MiG-29K is NOT able to operate from it nor is the N-LCA.

The only realistic options for the IN are :

-Rafale-M
-F-35C
-Sea Gripen

Rule out the Sea Gripen from the outset because of its limited abilities vis a vis the others as well as limited scope of industrial benefits.

The F-35C looks good on paper but my gut feeling is to avoid this white elpephant like the plague. Many customers are reconsidering their purchase quantities or their purchases altogether which will only drive up the unit cost. There is limited scope for industrial benefits for India with the F-35 and it would mean India signing CISMOA, BECA and maybe even LSA which it has bbeen reluctant to do. The ONLY way I see the F-35C coming to the IN is if the USG insists on tieing it to the sale of EMALS and the E-2Ds in a package deal. But from what I am hearing this won't neccersarily be the case as many have feared.


The Rafale-M is the clear winner, tacking onto the IAF's orders will ensure greater inductrial benefits for India, far cheaper spares, existing in-house training that the IN can model their regime after with the help of a sister service, established relations with the OEM (Dassualt) etc etc it's a win-win. Plus, if it is true that Dassualt will be assisting in the LCA and maybe even AMCA then the IN will already have good relations with the OEM as the IN are heavily invested in the LCA project and maybe Dassualt may even help in navalising the AMCA so that the IN has a long term carrier 5th gen fighter project.


@PARIKRAMA with the FGFA looking less and less likely (and thus the N-FGFA which I never thought would happen in the first place) I am 100% behind the idea of Rafale-Ms now for the IN that will easily be the most potent carrier fighters in the region until at least 2030. And long term get the AMCA devloped to be a capable VLO carrier fighter with Dassualt's help- sort of what we discussed the other day. This way the AMCA would have PLENTY of time to be developed and refined. And if you look at the recent moves by the GoI (Rafale deal, FGFA freezing and AMCA funds release) it seems the chips are falling in place...

Thank you Sir's. Much obliged.

If the requirements are so huge in number for IN why aren't we seeing any movement on it. We are still wrangling with IAF order's. The phased manner approach if executed properly will make the Naval Air Arm a formidable force. Where does that put IAF an when should be realistically expect N-AMCA

 

[SR-91]

Bad move.

Better for IN to have F-35's for its Carrier than Rafale's.

Unless there is substantive Make in India component to additional Rafales. The F-35 will be a massive leg up in capabilities from Rafale's at a marginal cost increase.

Not really, as much as I would like to see F-35 with IN, it has many unresolved issues,
*Series of hardware issues and software issues
*It's source codes and blue print stolen by the chinese
*In a mock dog fight, it lost to F-16
*Unreliable engine.
*F-35 "lighting" is vulnerable to lighting if it flies twice in 12 hour window.
*Ejections seats don't work, recent development.
*ALIS is the IT backbone of F-35 and it has some serious flaws. Chinese hacking made the matter worse.
*It can carry only limited numbers of missiles,
will cost a lot more than Rafales
*it can't climb, can't turn can't run.
* it's not as stealthy as previously visioned.

This is some of its problems, even if they were to fix em, it will take years, cost will rise.

I'd stay away from f-35 for time being.

On the other hand Rafale is a mature platform and it has and can do everything the IN wants.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

xcellent and detailed answer and thanks, but a question which is revolving around my head for many days
Rafale-M -- OK
EMAL ?? Or do you see india developing Steam based Catapull with the help of Russians

I doubt it bro about Russian collaboration for steam based catapult.. If Nuclear option is clearly considered, i think the best choice for Steam CATOBAR type would be a collaboration with French side and DCNS in particular.. We are already having scorpenes so DCNS can of course provide us with a broader umbrella of coverage.

For Russian assistance in Catobar, we need to first have very level headed discussion with them on various projects including few prime concerned ones like FGFA. In spite of their prowess, the relationship atm seems to suggest not everything is all right. In such a case why should we seek another technology via Russia and endanger another strategic project.

Moreover, the French DCNS and Charles De Gaulle being a N powered so you know technically we can understand the basic challenges of a N powered carrier better via that route and being a working N ACC, the difficulties and solutions associated with operations and day to day management would be more beneficial for IN.

If the requirements are so huge in number for IN why aren't we seeing any movement on it. We are still wrangling with IAF order's. The phased manner approach if executed properly will make the Naval Air Arm a formidable force. Where does that put IAF an when should be realistically expect N-AMCA

Chiefly 3 reasons
1. IN wants a clear cut strategy from MOD about a MII line for the aircraft of its choice. So far its unclear and closest one deal for IAF off the shelf is not signed nor officially an intimation of assembling line in India is disclosed.
2. IN Planners for Phase 3 is getting humongous pressure from USA who wants a packaged deal of EMALS, E2D and F35s. Their opinion is we bought untested Mig29Ks with INS vikramaditya so why not F35s with EMALS and throw in consultancy for N ACC. Thats why you keep hearing the "commonality" jargon as its to deter F35 purchase view.
3. MOD has not yet formally sanctioned the IN's 2027-2042 plan nor MOD had sanctioned the 600 aircraft plan.

As the IAC 1 is scheduled to be handed over by Dec 05,2018 we can expect some movement for a 40-50 birds acquisition soon probably by next FY or 18 months max. This is to ensure that when the IAC1 finally comes in IN's hand, it will have some jets to start its testing and familiarization first on land and then on its deck. So you should see Phase 1 movement soon.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Friends those who are saying that 110 million dollars for Rafale is too much,then just remember Brazil has signed a 5 billion dollar deal for 36 Gripens.

Compare to that, you will not feel Rafale is that costly .

 

[PARIKRAMA]

India To Evaluate Rafale for Navy

India To Evaluate Rafale for Navy
By Vivek Raghuvanshi3:34 p.m. EST January 19, 2016

TWEET 13LINKEDINCOMMENTEMAILMORE

NEW DELHI — In an expected move, the Indian government has directed the Navy to undertake detailed briefings with Dassault Aviation regarding the Rafale aircraft.

An Indian Defence Ministry source said the government wants commonalities between logistics and spares for fighters with the Navy and Air Force.

A detailed briefing on Rafale for the Indian Navy is planned here for Jan. 29, he said, but declined to comment if India will buy Rafales for the Navy as well.

A Navy official said the service needs 54 fighter aircraft but refused to say if Rafale has been shortlisted.

Meanwhile, French President Francois Hollande will arrive in India Jan. 24 along with French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to sign the protocol agreement (an inter-governmental agreement ) on purchase of 36 Rafales and a formal agreement will be signed in New Delhi Jan. 25.

Last week, India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval flew to Paris to give final approval on the protocol agreement and to finalize the offsets and weapon package.

Besides providing 36 Rafale fighters over three years, Dassault Aviation will also set up new facilities for Rafale aircraft at two Indian Air Force bases.

The MoD source added that the entire deal, including weapons package, would cost over $9 billion. But he gave no time frame when the final contract will be signed.

The governments of India and France have been working on the Rafale deal since April under which France will provide an offset of under 50 percent.

Funding of the 36 Rafale fighters will be a big challenge, said another MoD source.

The funding time line has not been decided yet, he added.

The Indian MoD is also drafting new guidelines under which the French defense companies involved will have to pay penalties if spares are not available or performance is unsatisfactory.

Email: vraghuvanshi@defensenews.com
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

i said this here

As the IAC 1 is scheduled to be handed over by Dec 05,2018 we can expect some movement for a 40-50 birds acquisition soon probably by next FY or 18 months max. This is to ensure that when the IAC1 finally comes in IN's hand, it will have some jets to start its testing and familiarization first on land and then on its deck. So you should see Phase 1 movement soon.

@Hephaestus Sir, here is the link i got now.. 54 birds under consideration.. i said 40-50..

So IN is doing bit by bit movement now..

@Abingdonboy IDRW credibility spiked big time with news on Rafale Ms and confirmation by Raghuvanshi..

See the highlighted portions in red.. all clean home run strikes by my source.. (LOL)
90% availability+ IGA to be signed when Prez Hollande is here.. and biggest thing

We know right IN does nt like off the shelf purchase.. So if they do purchase this off the shelf then its only possible that a much larger order is in MII.. or
the other view those 54 are to be part of MII line and should see delivery by 2019 to begin with .. in line with IAC 1 induction

This is going to get interesting..

 

[#hydra#]

Actually IN would be getting both RAFALEs and F-35Cs

Most probable scenario, since IN wants emal in their next ship & that product won't come with out f35. But navy is not seeing f35 as front line bird. So in reality IN may go for limited number of f35 for the sake of emals but real work horse will be rafale.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Vauban - Sir interesting developments....

 

[kaykay]

Rafale or not but one thing came out in open that IN require 54 new fighters apart from 45 Mig-29Ks and ~50 NLCA. What aircrafts could be possible contenders?

PS: A serious 'airforce' is in making out of Indian naval air arm. Soon It will be considered 3rd best 'airforce' in our region. lol

 

[faithfulguy]

Rafale or not but one thing came out in open that IN require 54 new fighters apart from 45 Mig-29Ks and ~50 NLCA. What aircrafts could be possible contenders?

PS: A serious 'airforce' is in making out of Indian naval air arm. Soon It will be considered 3rd best 'airforce' in our region. lol

So is India buying a specific for each Ac?

 

[Vergennes]

Friends those who are saying that 110 million dollars for Rafale is too much,then just remember Brazil has signed a 5 billion dollar deal for 36 Gripens.

Compare to that, you will not feel Rafale is that costly .

If i remember,the Brazilian deal includes also ; For ~5billion of $ :

-Production of Gripen NG in Brazil
-Formation of engineers
-ToT
-Improving and implementing Brazilian technology
-Gripen NGs maintenance until 2050.....

And probably other things i forgot.

Lets first just wait for the first 36 to be finalized and signed.

I agree on that,let's sign the first 36 and then wait for more details.

 

[kaykay]

So is India buying a specific for each Ac?

Sort of. Mig-29Ks and NLCAs( mix of them) are meant for Ins Vikramaditya and Ins Vikrant( to be commissioned in 2018) but after that Ins Vishaal will be a 65000-70000 tons CATOBAR CV and thus will require aircrafts with this configuration ( F-35, Rafale-M, Sea Gripen). Though this will take time as its not required anytime soon and possible aircraft deal is still 5-7 years away.

PS: Indian naval air arm plan to operate them from shore based facilities too and not just from carrier. All 3 CVs put together( once inducted) will not use more than 70-80 fighters but they will get around 150 fighters.

 

[cerberus]

So is India buying a specific for each Ac?

Obviously We Buyed 45 Mig-29 K Just For INS Vikramaditya Because Russian Want there Own Aircrafts on it.We Deployed 30 Onbord and 15 for Reserve.

India in Future will Operate 2-3 Indigenous CBG one will be CATOBAR and it will Required To Maintain At-least For Naval 200 Aircraft's To fulfill Requirements For Primary and ground reserve.

Now IAF Get its Hand on Rafale How Would Navy Let this Chance go

If i remember,the Brazilian deal includes also ; For ~5billion of $ :

-Production of Gripen NG in Brazil
-Formation of engineers
-ToT
-Improving and implementing Brazilian technology
-Gripen NGs maintenance until 2050.....

And probably other things i forgot.

We are Getting Better

1. 90% Serviceability Assurance By Dassualt
2. 30% Offset Value of the Deal
3. +18 at Same Price
4. Indian Inputs in Rafale

 

[PARIKRAMA]

News is spreading
France to pitch for naval version of Rafale - The Economic Times

France to pitch for naval version of Rafale
By PTI | 20 Jan, 2016, 07.28PM IST


NEW DELHI: A high-level French team is set to meet senior officials of the Navy soon to brief them about the naval version of fighter jet Rafale as India works on the design of its next indigenous aircraft carrier - Vishal.

Defence sources said that during the meeting, the French side will give a presentation on the various aspects of the naval version of Rafale and the benefits it will bring at a time when the Air Force will operate Rafale too.

The Air Force is set to acquire 36 Rafales under a government-to government deal.

The development comes when the Navy is in the design phase for the next aircraft carrier.

Sources said that India has written to four countries, including France, seeking proposals for the design of the aircraft carrier that will have over 50 planes on board.

While India currently operates two aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya and INS Viraat, the latter is set to be decommissioned soon. The country's first indigenous aircraft carrier Vikrant is already under construction in Kochi and is scheduled to be handed over by end of 2018.

Sources said that one of the basis of the design will be the aircraft component of the carrier.

"At this moment, we are doing with what we have," the sources said. The Navy will deploy MiG 29K fighter aircraft on Vikrant. However, it is not clear if the Navy will stick to MiG 29K or go in for a new aircraft for Vishal.

As per the Navy's plan, Vishal would be a 65,000 tonnes aircraft carrier and will be about 300 metres long and about 70 metres in width.

While the exact propulsion system for it has not beeen decided, sources indicated it could well be a nuclear one.

"Given the long life cycle of a carrier, about 50 years, the cost of the nuclear propulsion will be recovered as nuclear means longer duration and better availability," the sources said.
++++++++++++++++++

But IN does not have Mig29Ks for INS Vikrant or IAC1 unless we order new ones.. Presently its 45 and almost bulk goes to Vikramaditya..(30 in that ACC).. Either we order more or its a new bird for IAC 1