After Mig-29, Naval Rafale fighter jets might serve Indian Navy .:IDRW

[Abba_Dabba_Jabba]

TOT is mystical word although we get 30 % offset in India by France

How much ToT we got in MKI or T-90. Procurement ??

We manufacture AL-31 and RD-33MK engines at HAL. We got the knowledge of airframe design of MKI, helped us with LCA development.

 

[knight11]

We manufacture AL-31 and RD-33MK engines at HAL. We got the knowledge of airframe design of MKI, helped us with LCA development.

???

MKI airframe is make of Titanium alloy, and the raw material comes from Russia.
LCA airframe is composite and al alloy

TOT is a very loose term, and in short the OEM tells you how to build it, but don't tell you how it works or how it is designed. And most of time TOT manufacturing or license manufacturing is costly than buying offself, instead the money is pumped back to the country through various indegenous subcontractors and suppliers.

 

[Bharat_Bhakt]

???

MKI airframe is make of Titanium alloy, and the raw material comes from Russia.
LCA airframe is composite and al alloy

TOT is a very loose term, and in short the OEM tells you how to build it, but don't tell you how it works or how it is designed. And most of time TOT manufacturing or license manufacturing is costly than buying offself, instead the money is pumped back to the country through various indegenous subcontractors and suppliers.

TOT is just a frace which had fooled gullible indians for more than 40 years now and its high time we try to go alone than taking 'help' .

 

[knight11]

I still don't understand why people think IAF wil go for 126+63 Rafales, when the MMRCA deal is scrapped. At max IAF will induct 36+18 fighters, why should we go for these birds in heavy number if they cost $ 110+ million for single piece and there is no full TOT. If the airforce of France doesn't increases it's number in their inventory, then why should we ? 54 are enough, and to fulfill the 42 squadrons for IAF keep producing MKIs and LCA.

It is because off the shelf purchase number will be different, than the license produced in India, whether by HAL or by the pvt company of Dassault choice.

Because IN need to fulfilled 200 aircraft requiments for it IAC-1 and IAC-2.

And what would be the timeframe for that.

What about Naval AMCA ?

 

[arp2041]

Given the price, I'd gladly take F-35C over Rafales any day.

You are a US STOOGE!!!

 

[Abba_Dabba_Jabba]

???

MKI airframe is make of Titanium alloy, and the raw material comes from Russia.
LCA airframe is composite and al alloy

TOT is a very loose term, and in short the OEM tells you how to build it, but don't tell you how it works or how it is designed. And most of time TOT manufacturing or license manufacturing is costly than buying offself, instead the money is pumped back to the country through various indegenous subcontractors and suppliers.

Well whether OEM teaches you how to build or how it works, in the end you will learn something out of it. Whereas if you go for only assembling a knock down kit then you'll learn nothing.

Also somewhere during the LCA development, the ADA/HAL must have applied some knowledge gained from MKI manufacturing. And GTRE also must have asked HAL regarding AL-31 or RD-33, while developing Kaveri.

 

[knight11]

Well whether OEM teaches you how to build or how it works, in the end you will learn something out of it. Whereas if you go for only assembling a knock down kit then you'll learn nothing.

Also somewhere during the LCA development, the ADA/HAL must have applied some knowledge gained from MKI manufacturing. And GTRE also must have asked HAL regarding AL-31 or RD-33, while developing Kaveri.

What you learn from the license manufacturing is how to manufacture or produce from the design files, and in that process you absorb various technologies, like special welding technique.

But when you build the fighter plane on your own, then the agencies such as CLAW, and Ironfist is the one which helps you on the solid technical background, that works out the aerodynamic flight laws and certified it, so that the designer design the airplane from the concept. The last part is the manufacturing from the SOPs design which is how to manufacture the product in the most economical manner keeping the quality in control.

GTRE started Kaveri long before AL-31 came to the country, and for RD-33 engine, GTRE design of flat rated Kaveri is totally different have different metallurgical compossition, different pressure, and have FADEEC which the former don't have.

I was replying to @knight11 where he said 189(IAF) + 40(IN), which I highly doubt. Because buying 189 jets from France at $ 110+ million is just too expensive. Instead of that why not to invest the money in LCA and MKIs, may be Rafales are best multi-role fighter jet but if we are not getting TOT then 54 should be the last number.

It is because all three fighter planes are different aka LCA, MKI and rafales.

LCA is a light MRCA
MKI is the Airsuperiority fighter plane
Rafale is the MMRCA

Now LCA cannot do the Rafale job because of lack of endurance, and payload.
For MKI, it is not certified to fly at low altitude, in Deep strike mission and is specialized for Air Superiority, with limited A2G.
So Rafale is needed for Deep strike mission in highly enemy air defense area, during the first phase of the war, when most of the enemy assets like ground radars, SAM, Anti aircraft guns are intact.

For the cost -- There is a difference between the Fly away cost and the total cost of acquasition and French aircraft like Mirrage 2000 though was costly than Mig-29 but when we add the maintainance, and the fuel cost the french aircraft are cheaper on long run plus the reliability and total availability factor, on which the IAF are highly impressed with the Mirrage 2000 and Rafale being the sucessor of the Mirrage 2000. Ps not down the IAF demand of 125 Mirrage 2000, is what later become the MMRCA.

 

[Skull and Bones]

I wish we bought the production line for Mirages back in early 2000s.

 

[Abingdonboy]

189+ RAFALEs

IF the IN go for Rafale-Ms, the total number of Rafales in India will far exceed 189.

I wish we bought the production line for Mirages back in early 2000s.

Well even if India had done that, the Rafale-M would still have to be bought- the Mirage 2000s can't operate from carriers.

More conjecture.

Respected members @PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy please shed some light.

It' rather logical. IAC-2 is going to be a CATOBAR carrier, for that the MiG-29K is NOT able to operate from it nor is the N-LCA.

The only realistic options for the IN are :

-Rafale-M
-F-35C
-Sea Gripen

Rule out the Sea Gripen from the outset because of its limited abilities vis a vis the others as well as limited scope of industrial benefits.

The F-35C looks good on paper but my gut feeling is to avoid this white elpephant like the plague. Many customers are reconsidering their purchase quantities or their purchases altogether which will only drive up the unit cost. There is limited scope for industrial benefits for India with the F-35 and it would mean India signing CISMOA, BECA and maybe even LSA which it has bbeen reluctant to do. The ONLY way I see the F-35C coming to the IN is if the USG insists on tieing it to the sale of EMALS and the E-2Ds in a package deal. But from what I am hearing this won't neccersarily be the case as many have feared.


The Rafale-M is the clear winner, tacking onto the IAF's orders will ensure greater inductrial benefits for India, far cheaper spares, existing in-house training that the IN can model their regime after with the help of a sister service, established relations with the OEM (Dassualt) etc etc it's a win-win. Plus, if it is true that Dassualt will be assisting in the LCA and maybe even AMCA then the IN will already have good relations with the OEM as the IN are heavily invested in the LCA project and maybe Dassualt may even help in navalising the AMCA so that the IN has a long term carrier 5th gen fighter project.


@PARIKRAMA with the FGFA looking less and less likely (and thus the N-FGFA which I never thought would happen in the first place) I am 100% behind the idea of Rafale-Ms now for the IN that will easily be the most potent carrier fighters in the region until at least 2030. And long term get the AMCA devloped to be a capable VLO carrier fighter with Dassualt's help- sort of what we discussed the other day. This way the AMCA would have PLENTY of time to be developed and refined. And if you look at the recent moves by the GoI (Rafale deal, FGFA freezing and AMCA funds release) it seems the chips are falling in place...

 

[knight11]

IF the IN go for Rafale-Ms, the total number of Rafales in India will far exceed 189.


Well even if India had done that, the Rafale-M would still have to be bought- the Mirage 2000s can't operate from carriers.


It' rather logical. IAC-2 is going to be a CATOBAR carrier, for that the MiG-29K is NOT able to operate from it nor is the N-LCA.

The only realistic options for the IN are :

-Rafale-M
-F-35C
-Sea Gripen

Rule out the Sea Gripen from the outset because of its limited abilities vis a vis the others as well as limited scope of industrial benefits.

The F-35C looks good on paper but my gut feeling is to avoid this white elpephant like the plague. Many customers are reconsidering their purchase quantities or their purchases altogether which will only drive up the unit cost. There is limited scope for industrial benefits for India with the F-35 and it would mean India signing CISMOA, BECA and maybe even LSA which it has bbeen reluctant to do. The ONLY way I see the F-35C coming to the IN is if the USG insists on tieing it to the sale of EMALS and the E-2Ds in a package deal. But from what I am hearing this won't neccersarily be the case as many have feared.


The Rafale-M is the clear winner, tacking onto the IAF's orders will ensure greater inductrial benefits for India, far cheaper spares, existing in-house training that the IN can model their regime after with the help of a sister service, established relations with the OEM (Dassualt) etc etc it's a win-win. Plus, if it is true that Dassualt will be assisting in the LCA and maybe even AMCA then the IN will already have good relations with the OEM as the IN are heavily invested in the LCA project and maybe Dassualt may even help in navalising the AMCA so that the IN has a long term carrier 5th gen fighter project.


@PARIKRAMA with the FGFA looking less and less likely (and thus the N-FGFA which I never thought would happen in the first place) I am 100% behind the idea of Rafale-Ms now for the IN that will easily be the most potent carrier fighters in the region until at least 2030. And long term get the AMCA devloped to be a capable VLO carrier fighter with Dassualt's help- sort of what we discussed the other day. This way the AMCA would have PLENTY of time to be developed and refined. And if you look at the recent moves by the GoI (Rafale deal, FGFA freezing and AMCA funds release) it seems the chips are falling in place...

I had a feeling that Indian Navy is using LCA MK2 for developing N-AMCA. First a single engine Light fighter plane for a carrier operation seems dubious in the light of more capable platform like Mig 29K available without any risk and off the shelf. So LCA MK2 -N is just the technology demostrator, and later when AMCA is developed the LCA could serve as lift for training purpose.

 

[Spectre]

IF the IN go for Rafale-Ms, the total number of Rafales in India will far exceed 189.


Well even if India had done that, the Rafale-M would still have to be bought- the Mirage 2000s can't operate from carriers.

As of now number of Rafales are 36+18 with no official confirmation or plans for add on orders. India is pushing for 50% offset with French saying 30% take it or leave it. For India 50% offset is necessary so that Modi can save face on Make in India front otherwise the deal would be a huge climb down from MMRCA in terms of indigenous content and opposition would capitalize on it.

As for projections based on requirements made by you and @PARIKRAMA I understand where you guys are coming for and it doesnt make sense for India to go for such a small order given our depleting squadron, threat perception and gap in operational availability.

But put simply French are playing hard-ball as they have comfort of ample foreign orders and MoD lacks the finances for substantial commitment. Parikkar has put his foot down on the whole thing seeing how costly ~9 Billion USD for 36 jet package is coming out to be.

The threat perception and available finances have put the priority as below

Top Priority

Navy

1. Submarines as Indian navy is vastly overclassed by the Chinese way more than IAF is considering most of the Chinese jets are still demonstrators and rest are well countered by MKI
2. Indigenous destroyers.
3. Add on order for P-8I
4. Migs 29k

Airforce

1. Tejas MK 1A and Naval versions
2 Super Sukhoi updates and streamlining of spares and support services through increasing Indian content.
3. Gunships and Drones
4. 54 Rafales as the tip of the spear.
5. Jaguar Upgrades


Army - This is a key area of concern as Indian Army is most backward among all the three branches. Major investment is needed to bring them into the modern age. At present army is barely surviving through Jugad and cannibalization

1. Artillery Modernization
2. Small Arms Systems
3. FICV and Arjun 2 program
4. Basic equipment like bullet proof jackets, ammunition, proper weather appropriate clothing etc

In addition OROP has put a huge strain on budget.

Regards

 

[kaykay]

One thing is sure, Indian naval air arm has plans to operate fighters for shore operations too. Could this mean they would deploy their own fighters on A&N Islands?

 

[dadeechi]

Mig-29Ks are okay for Ins Vikramaditya and Vikrant but after that we would need either Rafale, or F-35C for Ins Vishaal. Say 20 aircrafts will do fulfill the requirements

Actually IN would be getting both RAFALEs and F-35Cs

 

[PARIKRAMA]

with the FGFA looking less and less likely (and thus the N-FGFA which I never thought would happen in the first place) I am 100% behind the idea of Rafale-Ms now for the IN that will easily be the most potent carrier fighters in the region until at least 2030. And long term get the AMCA devloped to be a capable VLO carrier fighter with Dassualt's help- sort of what we discussed the other day. This way the AMCA would have PLENTY of time to be developed and refined. And if you look at the recent moves by the GoI (Rafale deal, FGFA freezing and AMCA funds release) it seems the chips are falling in place..

There is one obstacle.. The make in India program
IF the MII deal part goes through, i expect the work for IN is cut out. The IN plan is 4 phased

Phase 1 is getting carrier fighters for immediate 3 CBGs by 2030 (INS Vikrant and IAC 1 2018 delivery and IAC 1 follow on 2028 delivery) - I see a max 2 squadron of Mig 29K in Vikramaditya but surely 5 squadrons for the IAC1 two ships (2.5 sq each average implying close to 40 birds at 16 per sqd) - So 16x5= 80 Rafales M

Phase 2 will be Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

Phase 3 will be planned procurement of 3 squadron each for 2 IAC 2 N capable one meaning 6 squadrons or 16x6 = 96 birds

Phase 4 will be the planned shore based training and entire coastal network under IN requiring coverage. That will see from West coast to east coast 3 squadrons each in each side so 6 squadrons. They also act as training depots.
A&N will get 2 dedicated rafale M squadron under IN
The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over four important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli. A squadron each at individual places or around them

The Rafale M under Phase 4 will mean - 6+2 = 8 squadrons
8x16 = 128 Jets

So total potential here is
Phase 1+ Phase 3+Phase 4 = 80+ 96+ 128 = 304

This plan is not for 2030 but more like 2042-45 timeline
Other jets would be
Mig 29K - 45
LCA MK1 Naval - @16/squadron - 64
So approx - 304+45+64 = 413 approx
This is inline with my earlier assessment where i said IN is looking at 600 numbers of fixed wing fleet by 2042-45 types.
(when you add the other jets )

This is the GOLDEN EGG LAYING GOOSE

So now you can understand why LM, Boeing, Dassault or Sukhoi wants a part of this pie. Take it from me, if Dassault established the MII Line, the plan goes through with a much higher probability as IN wants MII partner only.. No off the shelf purchase types.

and in case MII comes in then yes with 90% availability clause DM MP has eliminated the need of almost 2 squadrons jets due to higher fleet availability benefit. So instead of 189 we may see more like 144-162. We may eventually end up at 189 if other projects are delayed of course.

So Dassault and France main target is not just IAF, thats just half of IN's requirement.. The chief one is IN.

I had a feeling that Indian Navy is using LCA MK2 for developing N-AMCA. First a single engine Light fighter plane for a carrier operation seems dubious in the light of more capable platform like Mig 29K available without any risk and off the shelf. So LCA MK2 -N is just the technology demostrator, and later when AMCA is developed the LCA could serve as lift for training purpose.

As i said above

Shore based planes comprising of limited number of tech demonstrators and planned developing of Naval LCA MK1 series. it would be around 3-4 squadrons. and IN would then jump on to a medium category development chiefly the AMCA program - Naval version

I dont see LCA MK2 naval version happening as longer legs demand means AMCA Naval getting a much needed number boost.. the LCA MK1 Naval will serve as the plugging of gaps as well as mastering the tech like UC and landing gear strengthening and many other technologies needed for naval AMCA

The LCA MK1 Naval developed will look at providing point defence role over three important bases - Western Coast - INS Kadamba - Karwar, INS Hansa - Goa, Eastern Coast INS Dega Vishakapatnam, INS Varsha Rambilli.
A squadron each at individual places or around them.

One thing is sure, Indian naval air arm has plans to operate fighters for shore operations too. Could this mean they would deploy their own fighters on A&N Islands?

Yes sure shot guaranteed. A&N will see dedicated 2 squadrons of IN and thats what i had shown under phase 4 plans

 

[T90TankGuy]

Lets first just wait for the first 36 to be finalized and signed.