Zarif's world tour is in full swing

[Arminkh]

China's recent counter-tariffs will put on some pressure. They have recently upped Iran oil imports as trade talks collapsed. This is good for Iran.

I red that news. It is insignificant increase of around 20K barrels in a month. Nowhere close to where it should be.

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

I red that news. It is insignificant increase of around 20K barrels in a month. Nowhere close to where it should be.

0.9 million bpd to China alone is not insignificant considering Trump/Bolton/Pompeo/Bibi/FDD are doing everything they can to bring Iran's oil exports to 0.

Zarif's deputy is in France tomorrow to finalise a deal between Iran-EU to save the JCPOA in exchange for the EU agreeing to buy $15 billion of oil from Iran - huge development.

Zarif is in Moscow tomorrow. Interesting times.

 

[Kastor]

0.9 million bpd to China alone is not insignificant considering Trump/Bolton/Pompeo/Bibi/FDD are doing everything they can to bring Iran's oil exports to 0.

Zarif's deputy is in France tomorrow to finalise a deal between Iran-EU to save the JCPOA in exchange for the EU agreeing to buy $15 billion of oil from Iran - huge development.

Zarif is in Moscow tomorrow. Interesting times.

The price of bad policy and bad governance for the Iranians, this is similar scenario for the last 40 yrs, any other government would have been voted out of office......selling our oil to China at a 30% discount....30% is a highway robbery of the Iranian people's wealth. Pffft. I can't understand this ideology of bullshit.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-04/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

 

[OldTwilight]

The price of bad policy and bad governance for the Iranians, this is similar scenario for the last 40 yrs, any other government would have been voted out of office......selling our oil to China at a 30% discount....30% is a highway robbery of the Iranian people's wealth. Pffft. I can't understand this ideology of bullshit.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-04/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

The main goal is to keep power at any cost

 

[Kastor]

The main goal is to keep power at any cost

I'm beginning to see that. This is just bad management, bad strategy.....it's a 25 yr contract. They will get benefit from several sides of this deal. So if anyone asks, do sanctions have an effect....tell them hell yes!

 

[OldTwilight]

I'm beginning to see that. This is just bad management, bad strategy.....it's a 25 yr contract. They will get benefit from several sides of this deal. So if anyone asks, do sanctions have an effect....tell them hell yes!

Just keep in your mind that IRI is corrupted to the goal and their main purpose is to keep power ....
And you can start to predict all of their move ....

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

The price of bad policy and bad governance for the Iranians, this is similar scenario for the last 40 yrs, any other government would have been voted out of office......selling our oil to China at a 30% discount....30% is a highway robbery of the Iranian people's wealth. Pffft. I can't understand this ideology of bullshit.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-04/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

30% is not confirmed and is the highest possible amount (possibly closer to 20% in reality).

China is investing $280 billion in updating Iran's oil and gas infrastructure - so of course it wants something in return, and a 20-30% discount is perfectly reasonable. The benefits Iran will get from having modernised oil and gas infrastructure which are more productive and efficient will easily outweigh that 20-30% concession.

The $120 billion investment in Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure does not come with a similar discount, but is a huge boon for Iran and Iran's economy as well.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Just keep in your mind that IRI is corrupted to the goal and their main purpose is to keep power ....
And you can start to predict all of their move ....

Well, Iran doesn't have much of a choice to be honest. Given the country's current isolation and sanctions, this leaves little room for manoeuvre for the IRI authorities, hence the Chinese deal compromise. So they don't have much choice.

 

[Kastor]

Well, Iran doesn't have much of a choice to be honest. Given the country's current isolation and sanctions, this leaves little room for manoeuvre for the IRI authorities, hence the Chinese deal compromise. So they don't have much choice.

That is precisely my point...bad decisions, bad strategy has left the leadership with no cards to play.....we need smarter people in control, we need better long term strategies.

 

[Sineva]

The price of bad policy and bad governance for the Iranians, this is similar scenario for the last 40 yrs, any other government would have been voted out of office......selling our oil to China at a 30% discount....30% is a highway robbery of the Iranian people's wealth. Pffft. I can't understand this ideology of bullshit.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-04/china-and-iran-flesh-out-strategic-partnership

Well,I suppose the alternative would be to follow the saudi example of western vassalage,you might possibly get a better price for your oil,but not only would you be expected to subordinate yourself politically to the west,but you would also be expected to kick back some of that money in the form of arms purchases for weapons you didnt need and likely couldnt use anyway.
Ultimately the west does not want strong independent nations in the persian gulf/mena region and theres really no way around that sad fact I`m afraid,now they of course arent the only ones,however they do seem to be the most determined to try and prevent it.
Also rouhani isnt going to be in power for that much longer,its quite possible that his,very likely hard line,successor may decide to do the same sorts of things with rouhanis projects that rouhani did with many of ahmadinejads ie scrap them,a new broom sweeps clean etc....Indeed its quite possible that the hardliners may object to this deal for the very same reasons that you do,plus theres also the possibility of chump not getting reelected as well,that would also alter things.
Its still pretty early in the day and we`ve heard this exact sort of thing before,just a couple of months ago supposedly iran had agreed a deal with the russians that was so bad it made this look like the deal of the century.Time will tell.

Just keep in your mind that IRI is corrupted to the goal and their main purpose is to keep power ....
And you can start to predict all of their move ....

I think that you`ll find that that is true of all power structures regardless of nationality.

 

[Kastor]

30% is not confirmed and is the highest possible amount (possibly closer to 20% in reality).

China is investing $280 billion in updating Iran's oil and gas infrastructure - so of course it wants something in return, and a 20-30% discount is perfectly reasonable. The benefits Iran will get from having modernised oil and gas infrastructure which are more productive and efficient will easily outweigh that 20-30% concession.

The $120 billion investment in Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure does not come with a similar discount, but is a huge boon for Iran and Iran's economy as well.

I may be wrong, if the 20% is because of the investment then by all means, they need to benefit......I also did not know about the Russian deal....but from experience, I can tell you that you'll never get a good deal from the Russians.

 

[mike2000 is back]

30% is not confirmed and is the highest possible amount (possibly closer to 20% in reality).

China is investing $280 billion in updating Iran's oil and gas infrastructure - so of course it wants something in return, and a 20-30% discount is perfectly reasonable. The benefits Iran will get from having modernised oil and gas infrastructure which are more productive and efficient will easily outweigh that 20-30% concession.

The $120 billion investment in Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure does not come with a similar discount, but is a huge boon for Iran and Iran's economy as well.

Do you think Iranian leaders would have agreed to such a deal if not for their current predicament? I'm sure you know the answer. They dont have much of a choice as I said before. It's not like the country is an open market or a free market economy that attracts lots of foreign investment like say GCC states or even other South east Asian countries who have been vying for foreign investments for decades now.

In short, I think that with the Chinese deal and concessions, Iranian leaders made a pragmatic decision given the country's current isolation and current circumstances.

That is precisely my point...bad decisions, bad strategy has left the leadership with no cards to play.....we need smarter people in control, we need better long term strategies.

Hmmm........I'm not sure that is feasible to be honest. The current regime in Iran seized power based on its current ideology and of spreading its own version of Islamic Revolution to the region as well. So if you want to review the country's current strategies and strategic decisions then you will be basically undoing the whole concept by which the current regime draws its legitimacy. So for that reason I believe it's almost impossible for the country to change course. Except the country aand ruling religious establishment undergoes a radical shift, which I don't see happening at all. So I don't think it's feasible for IRI to change course .

Well,I suppose the alternative would be to follow the saudi example of western vassalage,you might possibly get a better price for your oil,but not only would you be expected to subordinate yourself politically to the west,but you would also be expected to kick back some of that money in the form of arms purchases for weapons you didnt need and likely couldnt use anyway.

It's not always a zero sum game. Using such logic Indonesia,Malaysia are also western puppets since they don't have rather friendly relations with the West isn't it?

So we shouldn't always see things black and white. I think Iran case was accentuated and made worse by the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the hostage taking of US embassy, that event alone made Iran a pariah in many western countries and defined the countries current situation in the decades to follow. Plus the country's newly established leaders back then we're also very radical in their views of the West as well, this only made things worse

 

[hussainb72]

The current leadership in iran was and is and is going to be the best leadership for iran. The problem with iran is it's people, they should choose someone like Rouhani, when he was elected the first time, what did he do in the first 4 years? Just promises and nothing else, then the people voted for him again, and now iran has lots of problems because of this which cant be solved until Rouhani's 2 years end and a new president is elected, hopefully the next president isnt Ahmadinejad, he was good at the beginning, but then he got corrupted.

Imo the main problem with a republic country is that when a new president is elected, he can do whatever he wants with what the previous president did, but this system is still the best. There should be a rule that wouldn't allow a new president to cancel the work of the previous president as the guy who worked on it spent time and money on it, unless that project is useless and the country wont benefit from it. Rouhani cancelled lots of useful projects that if they were still in place, iran wouldve been in a much better place.
Another problem is that rouhani thinks that everything can be solved by negotiating, which is a form of weekness. It's no one's business if iran has ballistic missiles or not, look at North Korea, how they are making their own missiles and nuclear weapons, if iran wasnt negotiating on these stuff, it had the same position as NK.

Anyway, nothing can be done now, we just have to wait until rouhani's presidency ends and then the iranian people should choose a proper person next time. And let's hope that rouhani doesnt do anything wrong once the sanctions are removed next year.

 

[Battle of Waterloo]

The current leadership in iran was and is and is going to be the best leadership for iran. The problem with iran is it's people, they should choose someone like Rouhani, when he was elected the first time, what did he do in the first 4 years? Just promises and nothing else, then the people voted for him again, and now iran has lots of problems because of this which cant be solved until Rouhani's 2 years end and a new president is elected, hopefully the next president isnt Ahmadinejad, he was good at the beginning, but then he got corrupted.

Imo the main problem with a republic country is that when a new president is elected, he can do whatever he wants with what the previous president did, but this system is still the best. There should be a rule that wouldn't allow a new president to cancel the work of the previous president as the guy who worked on it spent time and money on it, unless that project is useless and the country wont benefit from it. Rouhani cancelled lots of useful projects that if they were still in place, iran wouldve been in a much better place.
Another problem is that rouhani thinks that everything can be solved by negotiating, which is a form of weekness. It's no one's business if iran has ballistic missiles or not, look at North Korea, how they are making their own missiles and nuclear weapons, if iran wasnt negotiating on these stuff, it had the same position as NK.

Anyway, nothing can be done now, we just have to wait until rouhani's presidency ends and then the iranian people should choose a proper person next time. And let's hope that rouhani doesnt do anything wrong once the sanctions are removed next year.

What did Rouhani cancel that was so great? Space programme budget cuts I agree were terrible, but things like Mehr project were a disaster that would bankrupt Iran.

Do you think Iranian leaders would have agreed to such a deal if not for their current predicament? I'm sure you know the answer. They dont have much of a choice as I said before. It's not like the country is an open market or a free market economy that attracts lots of foreign investment like say GCC states or even other South east Asian countries who have been vying for foreign investments for decades now.

In short, I think that with the Chinese deal and concessions, Iranian leaders made a pragmatic decision given the country's current isolation and current circumstances.

Even without sanctions no one would be able to offer such a comprehensive and large investment package for Iran's oil and gas infrastructure. The additional $120 billion investment in transport and manufacturing is a bonus.

Don't forget China also benefits a lot from this because Iran is a vital part of its OBOR project.