World Bank forecast 4.4% growth rate for Pakistan FY2014/15

[farhan_9909]

WASHINGTON, October 6, 2014— Many South Asian countries show potential for accelerated growth in the short and mid-term:

Pakistan:
South Asia’s second largest economy is expected to continue on a path of growth recovery, manageable inflation and fiscal consolidation. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.3 to 4.6 percent in FY2014/15, driven by services and large scale manufacturing on the supply side, and by strong remittance flows, improving private investment and renewed export dynamism on the demand side. However, this outlook is based upon the important assumption that the political events of August 2014 have not damaged investor confidence or increased overall country risk. These events have already inflicted short-term losses of 2.1 percent of GDP (early September estimates).

South Asian Countries Show Potential for Accelerated Growth


======================
======================

I am now hopeful,we can achieve something close to 5% this year without much problem

 

[Icewolf]

World Bank has already said load shedding cuts 3% off our GDP growth each year.
So if Imran Khans political tamasha wasn't going on , and we didn't have load shedding, Pakistan would be growing at 10% this year.

 

[farhan_9909]

The Complete report mention Pakistan can grow upto 4.6%.

http://www.worldbank.org/content/da...th-asia-economic-focus-export-opportunity.pdf

The only Good thing we can expect from this noora govt is a average growth rate of atleast more than 5% or something around 6%

 

[Skull and Bones]

There will be revision.

 

[farhan_9909]

There will be revision.

I am hopeful it will be revised to atleast 4.8% by April/May Next year against the 5.1% of the official target

 

[ares]

As per WB..Pakistan's projected growth for Financial year 2014-2015( ending on on 30 June 2015 ) will be 4.1 and FY 2015- 2016 will be 4.4%....A short term loss i.e single quarter loss of 2.1 % due to protest will take its toll on overall growth.

 

[Skull and Bones]

I am hopeful it will be revised to atleast 4.8% by April/May Next year against the 5.1% of the official target

Insha'Allah brother.

 

[Sugarcane]

So, Sri Lanka will keep leading the region in growth rate.

 

[farhan_9909]

As per WB..Pakistan's projected growth for Financial year 2014-2015( ending on on 30 June 2015 ) will be 4.1 and FY 2015- 2016 will be 4.4%....A short term loss i.e single quarter loss of 2.1 % due to protest will take its toll on overall growth.

Please read it again,even though i have mentioned it already.4.4% is for 2014-15 Not 2015-16.

Otherwise download the complete report which confirms it to be for this fiscal year

GDP growth is expected to range between 4.3 percent and 4.6 percent in the current fiscal year.

For 2015-16 even WB prediction would be no less than 5%+

 

[farhan_9909]

@ares

 

[ares]

@ares

View attachment 114877

Real the last two sentences.

However, this outlook is based upon the important assumption that the political events of August 2014 have not damaged investor confidence or increased overall country risk. These events have already inflicted short-term losses of 2.1 percent of GDP (early September estimates).

Let us assume( as the world bank is) there are no further protests in Pakistan and the investor confidence is still intact despite recent protests.

The highest growth rate being expected out of Pakistan is 4.6%.

But a short term loss of 2.1 % has already been inflicted due to these protests in the present quarter.
Hence in this quarter growth would be 4.6% - 2.1% = 2.5 %

If the growth in remaning 3 quarters is 4.6 %..still the GDP growth for entire year will 4.6*3 + 2.5 / 4 = 4.075 % or rounded off to 4.1% as mentioned in here.

 

[farhan_9909]

You are being too optimistic.

.let us assume( as the world bank is) there are no further protests in Pakistan and the investor confidence is still intact despite recent protests.

The highest growth rate being expected out of Pakistan is 4.6%.

But a short term loss of 2.1 % has already been inflicted due to these protests in the present quarter.
Hence in this quarter growth would be 4.6% - 2.1% = 2.5 %

If the growth in remaning 3 quarters is 4.6 %..still the GDP growth for entire year will 4.6*3 + 2.5 / 4 = 4.075 % or rounded off to 4.1% as mentioned in here.

The 4.1% Growth rate is for the last year.Though i would not go into the detail of the damage caused by the long march but in august tax collection growth rate was more than 5% and Inflation record low(Perhaps lowest since the beginning of this year).

4.1% for last year was also confirmed by IMF in July/august.

Well as i said earlier,i am hopeful we will achieve something close to 5% this year.World bank as like in the past,will upgrade the forecast in the coming months.

 

[ares]

The 4.1% Growth rate is for the last year.Though i would not go into the detail of the damage caused by the long march but in august tax collection growth rate was more than 5% and Inflation record low(Perhaps lowest since the beginning of this year).

4.1% for last year was also confirmed by IMF in July/august.

Well as i said earlier,i am hopeful we will achieve something close to 5% this year.World bank as like in the past,will upgrade the forecast in the coming months.

No it is clearly mentioned at the bottom of the pic ...the figure is for FY. ..and FY 2014 means Financial year of 2014-15 ending on 30 June 2015 in Pakistan.

or do you think ..India grew by 5.6 % last year and this year will be growing at 6.4%?

 

[farhan_9909]

No it is clearly mentioned at the bottom of the pic ...the figure is for FY. ..and FY 2014 means Financial year of 2014-15 ending on 30 June 2015 in Pakistan.

or do you think ..India grew by 5.6 % last year and this year will be growing at 6.4%?

Yes the reason i said 2014-15 unlike as you mentioned 2015-16 in your first post.

First quarter of FY2014-15(June-June) is over

 

[ares]

Yes the reason i said 2014-15 unlike as you mentioned 2015-16 in your first post.

First quarter of FY2014-15(June-June) is over

What is your point here ?

In my first post I said , As per the chart.. WB is predicting a growth rate of 4.1 for FY 2014 ..which means FY 2014-15 and 4.5% for FY 2015 ..which is Financial year of 2015-16 (ending 30 June 2016) .