Like I mentioned earlier
Well we don't have to speculate on this. Just look what happened in the KArgil war?
Saudi Arabia refused to help Nawaz Sharif and told him to withdraw to the LoC.
The point is who will be the aggressor. If Pakistan will be the aggressor as we saw in Kargil, then no one will stand with you, Not even China forget Arab countries.
Infact, in the 1965 and 71 wars, it was the US that helped Pakistan more than any other Arab country. The Jordanian fighrters were trasnferred under US watch and so were the Iranian fighter jets.
The Tilt: The U.S. and the South Asian Crisis of 1971
Moreover, the recent situation post 2008 and the Pakistanisation of Al Qaeda and its affiliates and groups like LeT getting close to the Al Qaeda ideology has made the Arabs, particularly Gulf Arabs wary of Pakistan and its intelligence services. You can see the same play out in other GCC countries with for example refusal by GCC countries for something as simple as deferring oil payments or get discounted oil which was quite routine a decade ago.
Most interesting of all is the views expressed in wikileak cables and see what the UAE, Saudis, Omanis e.t.c. have to say about Pakistan
Just to give you an idea, in this particular Wikileaked cable, the Saudis explain how they think 10 times before talking to the ISI
The Hindu : News / International : “We think 10 times before approaching ISI”
You also have cases were the Pakistani Mil /ISI have withdrawn landing rights for UAE in Balochistan for example because the UAE had passed this facility on to the Americans and was used as a base for drones. From wikileaks we know that atleast the DG ISI believes that UAE alongwith India and Russia is partially responsible for funding the Baloch insurgency. It doesn't mean it is true, but atleast this is what the DG ISI wants the parliament and the people of Pakistan to believe
MPs told Russia, India and UAE involved in Baloch insurgency – The Express Tribune
The most interesting and frank discussion I found was of the Omani no.2. aka Crown prince on Pakistan.
Cable Viewer
IRAN AND INDIA
¶6. (S) Oman is encouraging India to engage in the region diplomatically and politically. He said that as Iran wants to be seen as a regional power, Oman wants a balance of power and sees India possibly as that balance. India does not need to present a military presence, according to Sayyid Fahd, a political presence will do. He termed India as a reliable country and a reliable partner, and that India would contribute to regional stability and security.
PAKISTAN
¶7. (S) Sayyid Fahd said that Pakistan is quite a different issue. It is a large country "with so many fanatics." The social fabric and the cultural fabric are under real threat and Pakistan needs help, both material and psychological support from its friends. He continued, noting that the situation spreads beyond Pakistan's borders, citing the problem in Great Britain, with its substantial Pakistani population. Sorting out who is a fanatic, and who is
not, "is a big problem." It doesn't stop there, he noted, it spreads throughout Europe, as these Pakistanis are British, with freedom of travel.
All these developments are related to the last 4-5 years and indicates the GCC a slow withdrawing from Pakistan and if Pakistan gets closer to Iran as it has been doing for the past 2-3 years, you can expect even more visible changes in policy. The biggest fear for the GCC would be Pakistan somehow aligning with Iran and China to form an axis of its own. And this is what atleast some in Saudi Arabia are writing about
Editorial: Consolidating ties - Arab News
Infact, in any future war, its what China and US do that would matter the most rather than what Arab countries do. Keep in mind that it has been the US that has been putting pressure on India to not initiate military action wether it was mumbai attacks or the 2001 parliament attacks. Even in Kargil, it was the US that worked out a face saving withdrawal for Pakistan. China of course provides weapons and nuclear tech to Pakistan and will be an important factor.
The Arabs will be neutral like they have been in the past 60 year when they were outright leaning towards Pakistan. So now when they actually have more stakes with an Indian relationship, the dynamics will stay neutral. And if Pakistan is the aggressor, the "moral support" will also not be there for Pakistan as we saw in Kargil.
This might sound unpalatable but this is the reality and what is happening in the real world.
