Which party in your opinio will score highestes number of seats in elections 2018?

[Abu Zarrar]

One with better knowledge of rigging

 

[Kabira]

Also, Constituency NA-105 (Gujrat city) is the only National Assembly constituency in Gujranwala Division with an MNA (Chaudhary Pervez Elahi of PML-Q ) who doesn't belong to the PMLN ... A bit of Inteqami Siyasat maybe

This is why more provinces should be made. Punjab only division will not be allowed. Punjab can be divided in 6 provinces even if rest of provinces in 2. Inteqami siasat is still a thing in Pakistan unfortunately.

In our constituency N league Abid Raza got 35% of votes but won. Votes were divided between PTI and Muslim League F or Q. Similarly in most areas N will likely never get 50%> votes but their candidates will win. If opposition is serious to win seats they will have to make alliance and not divide votes of losing candidates between themselves.

Now independents don't win much in northen/central punjab regions. But as you move towards south of Lahore then independents start to win big time. And they all join party who either make federal or provincial government.

 

[Mansoon]

It's because looking at the electoral dynamics, no single party is likely going to win the majority. PML-N is best poised to form a government in alliance with PPP and Fazlur Rehman.

So PTI cant?

 

[Jungibaaz]

Why only pmln?

All other things aside, our electoral system is first past the post constituency based. It means that PMLN is pretty much the only party right now that can capture enough seats to form government.

If memory serves correctly this is how PMLN managed to form a government with roughly 35% of the votes in 2013.

If they can win Punjab big, they can take the whole election and if PTI has its vote fragmented across the entire country and has no regional strongholds, it only increases PMLN's chances of success with the main opposition party being severely handicapped by the system.

 

[Awan68]

Why should I waste my brain, USA and saudia will decide who's going to rule pakistan.

Usa n saudia never did decide who ruled pakistan, we just made them think like they did cause its was to our benefit, bht upar ke filmen hen pakistan ke aur ap ke samajh se obviously bahir...

 

[Mansoon]

All other things aside, our electoral system is first past the post constituency based. It means that PMLN is pretty much the only party right now that can capture enough seats to form government.

If memory serves correctly this is how PMLN managed to form a government with roughly 35% of the votes in 2013.

If they can win Punjab big, they can take the whole election and if PTI has its vote fragmented across the entire country and has no regional strongholds, it only increases PMLN's chances of success with the main opposition party being severely handicapped by the system.

So why don't they get proportional representation system like Israel and Norway?

 

[DJ_Viper]

IK's loss is every Pakistani's loss except those living in or hailing from Central Punjab

That's a massive statement sir. Mr. Khan has no real play in Pakistani politics so far, outside of playing unethical opposition that wants to be declared clean as I understand it, but wants the ruling party to be labeled as "corrupt". Ever politician in Pakistan is corrupt. Mr. Khan is no angel.

Now that's established, the real question now becomes, who should people elect? Party, politicians who actually make a difference in people's lives!!

 

[Mansoon]

That's a massive statement sir. Mr. Khan has no real play in Pakistani politics so far, outside of playing unethical opposition that wants to be declared clean as I understand it, but wants the ruling party to be labeled as "corrupt". Ever politician in Pakistan is corrupt. Mr. Khan is no angel.

Now that's established, the real question now becomes, who should people elect? Party, politicians who actually make a difference in people's lives!!

What's the purpose of opposition then?

 

[notorious_eagle]

In our constituency N league Abid Raza got 35% of votes but won. Votes were divided between PTI and Muslim League F or Q. Similarly in most areas N will likely never get 50%> votes but their candidates will win. If opposition is serious to win seats they will have to make alliance and not divide votes of losing candidates between themselves.

This is exactly what PTI has done in Punjab, and that is they have established themselves as the sole opposition to PML-N. The majority of the votes in Punjab are always going to be against PML-N, and PTI is rightly following a clever strategy of pitching itself as the sole opposition in Punjab. Looking at how the trends are in Rural Punjab where agriculture has been gang ra**ed by PML-N, i just don't see PML-N sweeping from the Rural Punjab. Same goes for Urban Punjab, where crime, corruption, economic mismanagement, and nepotism has destroyed our urban cities. There is a reason why PML-N is desperately trying but failing to implement these cosmetic projects.

A good indication of how the future is going to be is to look at the last by-elections. Although PML-N won, they won by a razor thin margin. In a General Election these seats would have definitely gone to PTI. Keep in mind that PML-N was hammered by PPP in 2008-2013 and by PML-Q in 2002-2008 in by-elections, as these by-elections are largely won by Government candidate unless you're someone like JKT. PTI as a political party will be very different in 2018 than it was in 2013 which was its first ever election campaign.

So PTI cant?

Not likely. The demands that PPP and JUI-F will make will only be acceptable to PML-N.

 

[mingle]

This is exactly what PTI has done in Punjab, and that is they have established themselves as the sole opposition to PML-N. The majority of the votes in Punjab are always going to be against PML-N, and PTI is rightly following a clever strategy of pitching itself as the sole opposition in Punjab. Looking at how the trends are in Rural Punjab where agriculture has been gang ra**ed by PML-N, i just don't see PML-N sweeping from the Rural Punjab. Same goes for Urban Punjab, where crime, corruption, economic mismanagement, and nepotism has destroyed our urban cities. There is a reason why PML-N is desperately trying but failing to implement these cosmetic projects.

A good indication of how the future is going to be is to look at the last by-elections. Although PML-N won, they won by a razor thin margin. In a General Election these seats would have definitely gone to PTI. Keep in mind that PML-N was hammered by PPP in 2008-2013 and by PML-Q in 2002-2008 in by-elections, as these by-elections are largely won by Government candidate unless you're someone like JKT. PTI as a political party will be very different in 2018 than it was in 2013 which was its first ever election campaign.



Not likely. The demands that PPP and JUI-F will make will only be acceptable to PML-N.

It's too early to predict wait and see Punjab will decide who will win but Brand NS is badly hurt will never recover from that ditch .PTI should pay attention to sindh and Karachi .But the way N is buckle up in Punjab they can't win big now unless miracle happens like 2013 with Godfather kiyani and CJ ifti with Sethi sparrow baba .

 

[Mansoon]

It's too early to predict wait and see Punjab will decide who will win but Brand NS is badly hurt will never recover from that ditch .PTI should pay attention to sindh and Karachi .But the way N is buckle up in Punjab they can't win big now unless miracle happens like 2013 with Godfather kiyani and CJ ifti with Sethi sparrow baba .

Punjab has too much power. We need more divisions and proportional representation

 

[mingle]

Punjab has too much power. We need more divisions and proportional representation

Who will do this ?

Punjab has too much power. We need more divisions and proportional representation

If real election happens NS has not more than 35 to 40 seats Max .

 

[Cyberian]

Hopefully it will be Pakistan Muslim League due to their outstanding achievements so far.

 

[Mansoon]

Hopefully it will be Pakistan Muslim League due to their outstanding achievements so far.

 

[Jungibaaz]

So why don't they get proportional representation system like Israel and Norway?

It's past time we have it in Pakistan or some other alternative system. FPTP is pretty bad both for Pakistan and for Pakistani politics, I can already see how it supports and upholds regionalism and tribalism in our political identities.

I'm for implementing an alternative, I'm often bashing the current system on here.
It's up to parties like PTI that suffer from FPTP to oppose it. One can't reasonably expect parties like PMLN to oppose what helps them gain seats and form governments.