"Keep in mind that nations far more developed and long standing members of NATO are not willing to committ additional troops to Afghanistan. The French are pulling out, the British are pulling out, the Italian's are pulling out, the Germans have reduced troop numbers, the Polish ?(well they only have a few hundred troops based there).
The only serious players are the British and US, with the British shutting down from Bagram and the US taking over at Camp Charlie that leaves a very large area open for the Taliban to move around in."
This is the current ORBAT for ISAF-
Order of Battle ISAF-Feb. 2009
IIRC, there are 28 battalion-sized battlegroups in-country. You can see by region who, what, and where specifically. Nobody of consequence is departing before the Dutch and Canadians in the final one-third of 2010.
That's fifteen months away. Until then, you'll see a GROWTH in troops and trainers to the extent that they can be sustained. Remember, their log line competes with the log line of a growing ANA and ANP.
This is reflected in operations at hand now. Heretofore, the Brits had NEVER been south of Garmsir town. EVER. In a province that, by itself, produces two-thirds of Afghanistan's opium and is adjacent to Baluchistan that has been impossible for them. They've been utterly engaged in Sangin, Musa Qala, Lashkar Gar and Garmsir.
That's changed. For the first time ever, they've run a significant reconnaissance-in-force well into Garmsir district. One look at google will tell you how extensive the lands CONTROLLED by the taliban are from Garmsir south to the Pakistani border.
Totally. So too the Canadians in Kandahar. By themselves, these provinces account for 75-80% of Afghanistan's opium.
I think
controlled is fair. If ISAF has never been there, how else can it be? That's now changed and it promises to be a very hot spring, summer, and fall in Helmand and Kandahar.
The hottest yet.
Here too is where the fight is...other than the Kabul-Jalalabad corridor and it's approaches and it's a much different fight. Almost claustrophobic in those tight Hindu Kush valleys.
Not so in the south. Wide-open spaces needing a helluva lot more troops. They'll be getting them.
By August, R.R., we expect 825 C-17 sorties monthly in Kandahar. At 23,000 ft. that 5300 miles hauling 65 tons. One in-flight refuel and that plane is stateside to Kandahar non-stop.
I think it equates to a ton of supplies per American soldier in Afghanistan.
What happens after 2010 is hard to say. Even the Dutch have said they won't rule out another location within Afghanistan. I think that we'll be there longer than most Pakistanis can imagine.
Finally-the ANA by every account I've read is respected as an army. Our trainers are satisfied with their work to date. More encouraging, so too our combat commanders in adjacent locales.
They're good if limited by a non-existent log chain and no aviation of note, etc. AND they'll be growing as quickly as is feasible.
ANP? Who really knows? If it can be turned, corruption anywhere in Afghanistan can also be defeated.
JMHO.
