Turkey as legal Libyan govt may need help from Iran

[PakAlp]

Correction to the title:
Turkey and legal Libyan government may need help from Iran

Guys. I am opening a field which is very new to you and may initially seem non real. My hypothesis is that Turkey/legal Libyan government may need help from Iran and it is also Iran’s benefit to help them.

Background: in case you don’t know there are two main rivals in Libya:
1. GNA the legal government with support from Turkey, Qatar and Italy.
2. LNA which is led by a general named Hafter and gets help from UAE, KSA, France, Egypt, US, Israel, Russia and Syria.

Despite changes on the ground, it is a stalemate more in favor of LNA. There are lots of support for LNA.

I believe Iran can cooperate with Turkey behind the scenes and they can try to resolve some of the Middle East problems. Hopefully to have more legal governance in ME and less rebels.

You may say Russia and Syria support LNA. Yes but for the wrong reason.
Hafter is a puppet. Turkey was kicked out of Sudan and see what happened to Sudan. Do you want the same for Libya?

You may say Turkey is MB supporter. These guys are MB. Yes but MB in Sudan, Yemen, and Libya in not like MB in Syria.

You may say don’t put too much in your plate. Libya is far away. My answer is you will lose more by being passive and not proactive. Libya is closer than Venezuela and Iran is at the Mediterranean shores.

You may say Turkey is the one in need of help. Their recent victories are limited and they are the weaker side on the paper. Another LNA push is on the way. Why should we make an enemy from Hafter.
My answer is Hafter is already an enemy. GNA is not a friend either but a legal option and less of a puppet. Otherwise, another Sudan is on the way.

You may say it is not moral to get involved in business of people far away.
Answer: Yes it is not. That is why a puppet should not rule there. That is why we should be proactive.

I am open to hear your thoughts.

It would be better for Libya to hold free and fair election and let the winner take the government. All this propaganda about Tripoli Government being legitimate doesn't make sense. Haftar controls most of the country and even has Gaddafi loyalist support so he can also have the claim for the government.

Turkey cards in Libya are limited at the moment. Egypt, UAE and Saudi would never accept GNA because of MB and allies, they consider them terrorist. GNA has been getting back territory but it will hit a stalemate once Egypt, UAE, Saudi go on the offensive.

I dont see any Iranian involvement, they have wars in Yemen, Iraq and Syria to deal with, and it doesn't look like they would support a anti Russia GNA, and on top supporting anti Saudi/UAE side would be Persia v Arabs again. So a big NO!

The more realistic option is for all sides to kick out the MB and allies, the terrorist Shield groups, minus the Mudakkilis because Saudi Arabia wouldn't agree to it. Once this option is taken then a unity government can be made. The merger of the 2 armies will be complicated though

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

Alhamdulilah there are no Shias in Libya for Iran to play sectarian war.

This is the biggest blessing for Libya, to have one religious persuasion.

 

[PakAlp]

Libyan PM is a Turkish folk from Manisa! And, millions of Libyans have Turkish forefathers. Libya is very much a part of Turkey now...

If Turkey is planning on staying in Libya then I guess this war will continue until one side gives up. I pray Turkey destroys the terrorists and their supporters.

One of the brutal agendas of the extremist in Libya (not allowed to mention their name)

 

[Mithridates]

everything you said is stupid and untrue, Iran has no interest in Libya and that's the only reason why It doesn't care. Iran can be anywhere it wants to be and has in Africa.

only Egypt for an obvious reason. turkey itself does not provide the help for GNA because they have some love, it's merely because of eastern Mediterranean sea and it's resources.

 

[Rukarl]

Iran is not interested in Libya. Its just a big desert with tribal people killing each other. The legitimate central government is long gone and whats left is just too miserable.

 

[Shawnee]

Iran is not interested in Libya. Its just a big desert with tribal people killing each other. The legitimate central government is long gone and whats left is just too miserable.

True but being passive lets other countries take over Libya and appoint their own puppet in Libya. Then, they will recruit their puppet state against other countries.

Look at north Sudan. A country with little oil reserves left, mostly desert who ended up being a slave of KSA. Now they fight for KSA in Yemen and maybe soon Libya for $500 per month. Their misery continued under a KSA appointed puppet and Yemenis faced them in a war and they had to kill Sudanese in their soil.

 

[QWECXZ]

True but being passive lets other countries take over Libya and appoint their own puppet in Libya. Then, they will recruit their puppet state against other countries.

Look at north Sudan. A country with little oil reserves left, mostly desert who ended up being a slave of KSA. Now they fight for KSA in Yemen and maybe soon Libya for $500 per month. Their misery continued under a KSA appointed puppet and Yemenis faced them in a war and they had to kill Sudanis in their soil.

No, let's help Turkey take over Libya and hires the Libyans as mercenaries fighting in Syria and God knows what other countries that Erdogan thinks of them as part of their neo-Ottoman empire. And they will be paid probably less than 100 bucks per month.

 

[Shawnee]

No, let's give it to Turkey and Turkey hires them as mercenaries in Syria and God knows what other countries that Erdogan thinks of them as part of their neo-Ottoman empire. And they will be paid probably less than 100 bucks per month.

We have to make sure their people and resources will not get used (by KSA or Turkey) against other free nations. It is not out interest to see Libyan or Sudanese as mercenaries.
That will require us to be proactive. Not like what we did in Sudan.

 

[QWECXZ]

We have to make sure their people and resources will not get (by KSA or Turkey) used against other nations.
That will require us to be proactive. Not like what we did in Sudan.

You do realize that we are not the US to be able to afford a long term presence in Libya and kick others out. Right?

Our long term presence in Lebanon is because of the Lebanese nationalism and years of being suppressed by Israel. The same is true about Syria but the presence of a pro-Iran family in Syria helped a lot. We took advantage of the situation and found people who embraced our ideology. As for Iraq, we all know that the US mistakenly helped us take over Iraq, ignoring the fact that Iran and Iraq are very similar to each other and can become united and turn against them.

But I don't see such a potential in Libya. If a country like Iran wants to establish a long term presence in Libya, it first needs to find the right people with common interests. Turkey has found such a person. But we don't have such a person in Libya. Do we?

 

[Rukarl]

True but being passive lets other countries take over Libya and appoint their own puppet in Libya. Then, they will recruit their puppet state against other countries.

Look at north Sudan. A country with little oil reserves left, mostly desert who ended up being a slave of KSA. Now they fight for KSA in Yemen and maybe soon Libya for $500 per month. Their misery continued under a KSA appointed puppet and Yemenis faced them in a war and they had to kill Sudanese in their soil.

My friend, like i said before, this country is a big desert with a population of just 5/6 million and with a very tribal mindset. We are in Syria because the legitimate government in Damascus activated the defence pact with Iran seeking assistance against the hordes of fanatic Jihadis on US,Israel and Turkish payroll.

In Libya, who asked us to go and help them ? We can't go uninvited, can we ?

You would have a case if Gadaffi asked for help, but he is not there anymore. The country is a big mess thanks to Obama and that French midget. It is just not worth it.

 

[Shawnee]

You do realize that we are not the US to be able to afford a long term presence in Libya and kick others out. Right?

Our long term presence in Lebanon is because of the Lebanese nationalism and years of being suppressed by Israel. The same is true about Syria but the presence of a pro-Iran family in Syria helped a lot. We took advantage of the situation and found people who embraced our ideology. As for Iraq, we all know that the US mistakenly helped us take over Iraq, ignoring the fact that Iran and Iraq are very similar to each other and can become united and turn against them.

But I don't see such a potential in Libya. If a country like Iran wants to establish a long term presence in Libya, it first needs to find the right people with common interests. Turkey has found such a person. But we don't have such a person in Libya. Do we?

I expected all these questions before opening this thread and analyze being passive toward Libya. I have thought of your questions before and they are very reasonable.
Your answers are hidden in these question:

- Is the only way of being active having troops and spending money?
- What if a third country pays more than what you spend?
- How much was the cost of facing Sudanese in Yemen? How about losing port Sudan and the Red Sea?
- What do we share in common with Venezuela that justifies being there?

Finally:
-By just looking to be prepared to involve in Libya and without even doing it, you have an extra card against many others. Even if you have no plan to get involved, look prepared.
Please think about the last one, at least. If you don’t, you will look drained out and exhausted from Syria.

 

[925boy]

Without paying any price,

.........YET.

You do realize that we are not the US to be able to afford a long term presence in Libya and kick others out. Right?

Our long term presence in Lebanon is because of the Lebanese nationalism and years of being suppressed by Israel. The same is true about Syria but the presence of a pro-Iran family in Syria helped a lot. We took advantage of the situation and found people who embraced our ideology. As for Iraq, we all know that the US mistakenly helped us take over Iraq, ignoring the fact that Iran and Iraq are very similar to each other and can become united and turn against them.

But I don't see such a potential in Libya. If a country like Iran wants to establish a long term presence in Libya, it first needs to find the right people with common interests. Turkey has found such a person. But we don't have such a person in Libya. Do we?

Very good summary of recent events. Add that Iran also entered the Yemen war because Saudi(an adversary) was foolish enough to enter it fully, considering that Yemen was life Afghanistan- you never extricate yur troops with a win. Saudis never even sent their troops in. So Iran entered because it was an obvious, easy opportunity to drain the Saudis.

 

[Beny Karachun]

.........YET.

Hit me up when we pay it

 

[Shawnee]

Being passive is the worst that you can do in Libya. You can help Libya to stay independent by supporting GNA or even LNA but not by being passive.
Being proactive is not just sending troops. You can be present in many ways.

 

[925boy]

Hit me up when we pay it

You're already paying for it today, with no security on you border. Your IDF has never been more scared. Just wait for the next round. Military Technology will not save you guys and fast missiles will penetrate. You are like US- too many enemies, and too stretched out. i've been telling you- your IDF is useless, you only have IAF and AD missiles. Your troops on the Lebanon border are very afraid and they've shown us that. You keep talking on PDF.