Turkey as legal Libyan govt may need help from Iran

[Shawnee]

1. Fair enough. What do you suggest to give to Turkey that is reversible? What should we take in return?

2. Syria has oil. The US is controlling Syria's oil fields in the East in areas like Deir Ezzur. ISIS which previously controlled those areas sold Syria's oil to Turkey. Plus, Syria is Turkey's neighbor. Turkey's economy can't support millions of Syrian refugees.

3. If you think about it, the situation is not bad for the US. They are stealing Syria's oil. They have destroyed Syria. They have kept Iran in a war that its end doesn't seem to happen soon. As for Israel, they are worried about Iran's growing influence in Syria and our ground access to the Mediterranean Sea and they are addressing it by air and missile strikes. Syria of course is in no position to respond to those air strikes. So, the situation is far from bad for the US and Israel. It is not ideal, yeah, but it's not terrible either. Also, Israel doesn't want to replace a weak secular regime like Assad with a radical Islamic regime.

1. The details of the deal are beyond this topic. The point is not to antagonize another country unless you really have to and try to align them with yourself.

2. Syria is poor when it comes to oil. There are some fields but not worth much. Syrian oil is not worth the fight. It’s value is in the strategy and geography.
Libya has a lot more oil. Mediterranean oil can be a game changer. Imaging a Turkey with oil reserves of KSA.
You can argue and say you are not comfortable with a Turkey with huge oil reserves. I would buy that argument more.

3. If you believe in media, it will look like shit for Iranians in Syria. They keep getting slammed by robots day and night. What a misery!!
I think the situation on the field is very different and even car accidents kill more Iranians than Israeli strikes.
If you believe in aerial images to estimate the numbers killed you would have said 80 people were killed in Alasad. Intelligence from technology is always deceiving. I don’t see anybody killed in Syria having funeral in Iran these days.
Anything can be written in the news. What goes on the ground is what matters in the end.

 

[QWECXZ]

1. The details of the deal are beyond this topic. The point is not to antagonize another country unless you really have to and try to align them with yourself.

2. Syria is poor when it comes to oil. There are some fields but not worth much. Syrian oil is not worth the fight. It’s value is in the strategy and geography.
Libya has a lot more oil. Mediterranean oil can be a game changer. Imaging a Turkey with oil reserves of KSA.
You can argue and say you are not comfortable with a Turkey with huge oil reserves. I would buy that argument more.

3. If you believe in media, it will look like shit for Iranians in Syria. They keep getting slammed by robots day and night. What a misery!!
I think the situation on the field is very different and even car accidents kill more Iranians than Israeli strikes.
If you believe in aerial images to estimate the numbers killed you would have said 80 people were killed in Alasad. Intelligence from technology is always deceiving. I don’t see anybody killed in Syria having funeral in Iran these days.
Anything can be written in the news. What goes on the ground is what matters in the end.

1. I'm not asking for a full contract, I just want to know what kind of reversible give-and-take system you have in mind. Because I can't think of any. Some examples would be nice.

2. I didn't bring Turkey stealing Libya's oil because that's extremely unlikely. At best, Turkey will have some leverage over the new government. Turkey is not and will not be in a position to install a puppet dictator in Libya because it's simply not powerful to do that. But chaos in Syria is a different situation. A terrorist state like ISIS needs money and they will do business with anyone. And illegal business is always under-priced. ISIS or terrorist groups backed by Turkey are a lot more likely to steal Syria's oil and sell it to Turkey. It won't be a lot of oil, maybe 50,000 barrels of oil per day at maximum, but still.

3. Obviously it's not like that because we have like tens of thousands of deaths due to car accidents. You talk like our troops lives are not important. Israel has killed more than 10 Iranians in Syria without paying a huge price. Syria has become so weakened that it's literally no threat to Israel, even if they bomb the country 24/7.

 

[Shawnee]

1. I'm not asking for a full contract, I just want to know what kind of reversible give-and-take system you have in mind. Because I can't think of any. Some examples would be nice.

2. I didn't bring Turkey stealing Libya's oil because that's extremely unlikely. At best, Turkey will have some leverage over the new government. Turkey is not and will not be in a position to install a puppet dictator in Libya because it's simply not powerful to do that. But chaos in Syria is a different situation. A terrorist state like ISIS needs money and they will do business with anyone. And illegal business is always under-priced. ISIS or terrorist groups backed by Turkey are a lot more likely to steal Syria's oil and sell it to Turkey. It won't be a lot of oil, maybe 50,000 barrels of oil per day at maximum, but still.

3. Obviously it's not like that because we have like tens of thousands of deaths due to car accidents. You talk like our troops lives are not important. Israel has killed more than 10 Iranians in Syria without paying a huge price. Syria has become so weakened that it's literally no threat to Israel, even if they bomb the country 24/7.

1. They can withdraw from Idlib cities in exchanges for receiving help to capture areas in Libya. A crude delineation of terms.

3. I said Iran has more death due to car accidents inside Syria.
I have heard from SOHR that 14 were killed this week. Many other examples with interesting number of casualties. I have not seen any burial of anyone from Iran, Pakistan or Afghanistan though. Allow me to doubt the numbers. They do hit some building but they miss the people.
We usually see burials like what happened in Khan Touman or Idlib.

- As I mentioned I am opening a very new topic and I expected questions. I want to align with others as much as we can and counter them when we really have to. I want to be proactive.

 

[Beny Karachun]

You talk like our troops lives are not important. Israel has killed more than 10 Iranians in Syria without paying a huge price.

Without paying any price, we killed dozens overall.

 

[QWECXZ]

Without paying any price, we killed dozens overall.

OK, ketchup. lol

 

[Shawnee]

Guys
Check this out? Who is the third country?
Syria to enter Libya? Hafter does not allow Iranians into his country and we are sending him troops.

Exactly opposite of what I suggested may happen!
Poor Turkish diplomacy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258492980782137345

 

[Shawnee]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-usa-syria-idUSKBN22J301

 

[SubWater]

Correction to the title:
Turkey and legal Libyan government may need help from Iran

Guys. I am opening a field which is very new to you and may initially seem non real. My hypothesis is that Turkey/legal Libyan government may need help from Iran and it is also Iran’s benefit to help them.

Background: in case you don’t know there are two main rivals in Libya:
1. GNA the legal government with support from Turkey, Qatar and Italy.
2. LNA which is led by a general named Hafter and gets help from UAE, KSA, France, Egypt, US, Israel, Russia and Syria.

Despite changes on the ground, it is a stalemate more in favor of LNA. There are lots of support for LNA.

I believe Iran can cooperate with Turkey behind the scenes and they can try to resolve some of the Middle East problems. Hopefully to have more legal governance in ME and less rebels.

You may say Russia and Syria support LNA. Yes but for the wrong reason.
Hafter is a puppet. Turkey was kicked out of Sudan and see what happened to Sudan. Do you want the same for Libya?

You may say Turkey is MB supporter. These guys are MB. Yes but MB in Sudan, Yemen, and Libya in not like MB in Syria.

You may say don’t put too much in your plate. Libya is far away. My answer is you will lose more by being passive and not proactive. Libya is closer than Venezuela and Iran is at the Mediterranean shores.

You may say Turkey is the one in need of help. Their recent victories are limited and they are the weaker side on the paper. Another LNA push is on the way. Why should we make an enemy from Hafter.
My answer is Hafter is already an enemy. GNA is not a friend either but a legal option and less of a puppet. Otherwise, another Sudan is on the way.

You may say it is not moral to get involved in business of people far away.
Answer: Yes it is not. That is why a puppet should not rule there. That is why we should be proactive.

I am open to hear your thoughts.

I say we should stay out of there that is what smart man do but if one day in our imagination want to intervene there, we should side and cooperate with UAE behind scene.
I trust Emiratis more than Qataris. all other sides in Libya get their orders from them. Turkey and Egypt are only muscle there not brain.

 

[Baybars Han]

Iran cant provide anything meaningful to the table in Libya. They can only bring cannon fodder militia but Libya is too far away and we can use FSA for that, plus Iran is poor. Qatar could be a bigger help.

 

[Shawnee]

I say we should stay out of there that is what smart man do but if one day in our imagination want to intervene there, we should side and cooperate with UAE behind scene.
I trust Emiratis more than Qataris. all other sides in Libya get their orders from them. Turkey and Egypt are only muscle there not brain.

I trust Qatar more than Abu Dhabi. Dubai is different of course.

If you believe US, we might be close to seeing Syria in Libya on Hafter side. I hope we have discussed all the details well ahead of time.

Iran cant provide anything meaningful to the table in Libya. They can only bring cannon fodder militia but Libya is too far away and we can use FSA for that, plus Iran is poor. Qatar could be a bigger help.

These poor “cannon fodders” are the reason Assad is there. They were the losing side on the table but they won. Syrian rebels are mercenaries and not reliable.

 

[SubWater]

I trust Qatar more than Abu Dhabi. Dubai is different of course.

we experienced both in past. Sadly brotherhood gangs are namak be haram. I believe Abu dhabi have more pragmatism in its decisions. And we can trust the deals with them more. That does not mean we can side with them, but we can cooperate in areas with mutual understanding like syria.

 

[Shawnee]

we experienced both in past. Sadly brotherhood gangs are namak be haram. I believe Abu dhabi have more pragmatism in its decisions. And we can trust the deals with them more. That does not mean we can side with them, but we can cooperate in areas with mutual understanding like syria.

I hope whatever side we/Syria side with, we discuss it in details ahead of time and see all the possible backstabs.

اخرین باری که ما لیبی بودیم میشه دوهزار و پونصد سال پیش. لیبی خیلی مهمه ولی گروههای بسیاری اونجان
گروه اخوان هم طبق فرمایش شما خیلی وهابی گونه و غیر قابل اعتمادند ولی باز هم جاهایی کار راه اندازن

 

[Shawnee]

It is very complicated.
Turkish relation with US is gradually improving behind the scenes. Northern Syria was given to them and they returned the favor in Idlib as much as they could. General Flynn who is a Turkish supporter is being acquitted as a positive sign for Turkey.

Haftar is also a US citizen who lived in US for like 20 years. He collaborated with CIA and has fought Gaddafi since 1980s.
Haftar banned entry of Iranians to Libya. Not that there was any request to enter.

Now Syria may send troops to support Haftar.

 

[bsruzm]

we experienced both in past. Sadly brotherhood gangs are namak be haram. I believe Abu dhabi have more pragmatism in its decisions. And we can trust the deals with them more. That does not mean we can side with them, but we can cooperate in areas with mutual understanding like syria.

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran cant provide anything meaningful to the table in Libya. They can only bring cannon fodder militia but Libya is too far away and we can use FSA for that, plus Iran is poor. Qatar could be a bigger help.

everything you said is stupid and untrue, Iran has no interest in Libya and that's the only reason why It doesn't care. Iran can be anywhere it wants to be and has in Africa.