The iceberg behind the tip

[Awesome]

Agreed, provided it is understood that ramifications of such a decision would affect BOTH sides, and likely asymmetrically.

Ramifications of not doing so are affecting just one side...

Moreover, your tota got anything concrete on what would happen?

 

[VCheng]

Ramifications of not doing so are affecting just one side...

Moreover, your tota got anything concrete on what would happen?

So far, the impact is minimal in reality, but much in propaganda value. Longer terms ramifications will be on both sides, yes.

(My tota is still waiting for 12-23 and the resumption of supplies! )

 

[W.11]

vcheng bhai apni grammar tu sahi kerle

 

[Soumitra]

Try saying "We deny you airspace". What would they do? Fly over anyway? Let them/make them cross that line.

What happens when they cross the line? Does pakistan have the guts to down their aircraft? Or force it to land? And what if they deny airspace to PIA?

 

[araz]

By VCheng

The recent unfortunate incident between NATO and PA has raised a firestorm within Pakistan, and grave concerns internationally. ISPR has already put forth its official statement on the issue, but since the final NATO report is not yet out, it would not be productive to comment on the events of that night at this point in time. However, since chess is never won by emotions, this would be a good time to see in a coldly logical manner what iceberg lays behind the tip that surfaced only a few days ago.

From the moment an incident like this happens, there are mechanisms in place to capture a wealth of data, so comprehensively voluminous that it can take months to analyze fully. The data gathered start from the site of the event, and collection concentrates on the chain of propagation, i.e., how and where information is communicated, in addition to what is being communicated. After suitable analysis, what emerges is a flow of information, with the sentinel event in the center, and all the ripples radiating outwards, with all the nuances captured in detail.

This map displays critical nodes and junctions where certain ripples in the flow of information come together, and their timing. Specially important are holdups and delays, if any can be identified. All this information is combed over to identify suitable sites to inject carefully selected pieces of information that have the potential to utterly confuse and demoralize and indeed even cause totally opposite reactions from the opponent at a crucial chosen time.

What is then created is the "haze", the mass of confusing and conflicting information that breaks down established procedures, causing the opponent irreparable harm. Is it any wonder that the response of both the PA and the PAF was less than robust in the recent event? After all, these are regarded as two of the most professional military entities anywhere on the entire planet, where the slogan "Second to None" once held real meaning and pride, and thus the other possibility, sheer and utter incomptence, cannot be a feasible or sufficient explanation.

Pakistan would do well to attempt to analyze the full scale of its vulnerabilities exposed by the current event, for it is a sure thing that all the information collected as described above, will be available for use for any possible future events, not only in the arena that generated it, but by other parties in other theaters as well, if updated and shared.

International geopolitics has been likened to a chess game quite often with good reason, but in modern times, the level of complexity has gone up manifold, enabled by immense technological resources in such a manner that each square on the board has its own chess game while participating in the overall match as well. A novice in penury playing chess with a seasoned Grandmaster cannot count on a few pea shooters in the pocket to be protected from an utterly crushing defeat.

Therein lies an important realization if it were to be made.

The iceberg behind the tip | Pakistan Defence

Vcheng
You said a lot without saying much. As I said before you hide behind a veil of verbosity and never carry the situation to its logical end. In fact you have raised more questions than you have answered.
Now to the event , was it unplanned or orchestrated, both the sides have differing opinions on it. The beans( ie opinions and rhetoric) have spilt on the table and are clear for all to see. However as you say there is a lot of data which will need to be analyzed. It seems likely that US is at fault but that will never be accepted. So the question is what is acceptable to both the parties
As to PAs and PAFs response, unlike our ghairat brigade, I think their response has been logical. I think outright confrontation would have had disastrous consequences and should be avoided at all costs( Even----I am sorry to say at the cost of 24 precious and loved lives). I think the whole policy needs a rethink and this event is entirely the sort of catalyst that one needs to reappraise the situation. You would be surprised what a bit of non aggressive posturing could do in this game. The blockade of Supplies and closure of crossing points will hurt the US in many ways and will bring them to the negotiating table more quickly than one thinks. However the key would be how we utilize the moral high ground that we have gained in this game.
The name of the game is propaganda. We have no decent English channel that would portray the Pakistani point of view as the glasses of the world press are clearly coloured red and blue and white. Where is the projection of the Pakistani view point on the international scene? Is it time that the powers that be think about getting their fingers out of their ears and start listening to the chants of the time and its needs. The need of the times is a well projected and presented English channel dealing with the affairs of the middle East and Sout East Asia. Will be allowed to do it, I don think so.
The last and most crucial aspect is the nerves of our leaders. I am sure of one thing now much more so than before, we need a political figure head even if the behind the scene actors remain the army. The advantage of such an arrangement is the fact that a political figurehead can always bring things back to "seek national consensus" whereas an Army man can be forced into making a decision in haste which could be detrimental. Much as I am disgusted with our current leadership, i think in the current situation they are ideal as their Cojones can be in the hands of both the parties to squeeze but at the end of the day it is who squeezes them harder will win situation. This situation of " He is our plant" can be helpful in more than one way. especially to PA. The million dollar question is will the army hold its nerves and give away a little to gain some respect and political and financial windfall in the end. If they loose their nerves we are doomed. If we have a !" nationalist leader " at this point in time we are still doomed. So the present lot are the best at the moment.
Now the last big question is what was the aim of the exercise and did it achieve its aims. I think even if it is regarded as a mistake , it is a bad one on the part of uncle Sam and provided it is used appropriately, it will give us some leverage. If it was a provocative move then it has failed. However, in the case of it being the latter, it will not be the last. The question which I can not answer is what is the boiling point of the Army and will uncle Sam press us the wrong way to the extent that we respond? I think we may be prodded , but the chances of the boiling point reaching is unlikely. I am the first one to say that only Allah SWT knows the future so the space needs to be watched.
Araz

 

[VCheng]

Vcheng
You said a lot without saying much. As I said before you hide behind a veil of verbosity and never carry the situation to its logical end. In fact you have raised more questions than you have answered.

You may not like my writing style, but I would submit that my posts have a consistently clear message, and if they provoke further questions, then that should make for good discussions; that would be intentional of course.

Now to the event , was it unplanned or orchestrated, both the sides have differing opinions on it. The beans( ie opinions and rhetoric) have spilt on the table and are clear for all to see. However as you say there is a lot of data which will need to be analyzed. It seems likely that US is at fault but that will never be accepted. So the question is what is acceptable to both the parties

If there is a fault or faults, on one side or the other, or both, it/they will be found and rectified. I will not say anything more until the NATO report release.

As to PAs and PAFs response, unlike our ghairat brigade, I think their response has been logical. I think outright confrontation would have had disastrous consequences and should be avoided at all costs( Even----I am sorry to say at the cost of 24 precious and loved lives).

Absolutely agreed. A military escalation would have been totally counter-productive.

I think the whole policy needs a rethink and this event is entirely the sort of catalyst that one needs to reappraise the situation. You would be surprised what a bit of non aggressive posturing could do in this game.

Very few things surprise me Sir. I agree that the incident serves as a catalyst for reappraisal.

The blockade of Supplies and closure of crossing points will hurt the US in many ways and will bring them to the negotiating table more quickly than one thinks. However the key would be how we utilize the moral high ground that we have gained in this game.

There is no moral high ground in international geopolitics. I am surprised that you would actually believe that anyone could have gained what does not exist.

The name of the game is propaganda. We have no decent English channel that would portray the Pakistani point of view as the glasses of the world press are clearly coloured red and blue and white. Where is the projection of the Pakistani view point on the international scene?

I have been highlighting the importance of projecting Pakistan's point of view more forcefully and consistently all along. I am glad you have come to that realization too.

Is it time that the powers that be think about getting their fingers out of their ears and start listening to the chants of the time and its needs. The need of the times is a well projected and presented English channel dealing with the affairs of the middle East and Sout East Asia. Will be allowed to do it, I don think so.

Well, all it takes is a little bit of financing to start a new channel as you propose, just like Al-Jazeera. If they can do it successfully, so can Pakistan.

The last and most crucial aspect is the nerves of our leaders. I am sure of one thing now much more so than before, we need a political figure head even if the behind the scene actors remain the army. The advantage of such an arrangement is the fact that a political figurehead can always bring things back to "seek national consensus" whereas an Army man can be forced into making a decision in haste which could be detrimental. Much as I am disgusted with our current leadership, i think in the current situation they are ideal as their Cojones can be in the hands of both the parties to squeeze but at the end of the day it is who squeezes them harder will win situation. This situation of " He is our plant" can be helpful in more than one way. especially to PA.

Cutting away your verbosity, you are saying that now is the right time for the Army to hide behind a planted civilian figurehead. It won't be the first time, nor the last, in Pakistan's history that has happened.

The million dollar question is will the army hold its nerves and give away a little to gain some respect and political and financial windfall in the end. If they loose their nerves we are doomed. If we have a !" nationalist leader " at this point in time we are still doomed. So the present lot are the best at the moment.

I agree that the present lot, horrible as they are, will complete their tenure, because it suits both USA and PA. The leadership willl hold its nerves simply because failure is not an option.

Now the last big question is what was the aim of the exercise and did it achieve its aims. I think even if it is regarded as a mistake , it is a bad one on the part of uncle Sam and provided it is used appropriately, it will give us some leverage. If it was a provocative move then it has failed. However, in the case of it being the latter, it will not be the last.

Again, I will not say anything until 12-23.

The question which I can not answer is what is the boiling point of the Army and will uncle Sam press us the wrong way to the extent that we respond? I think we may be prodded , but the chances of the boiling point reaching is unlikely. I am the first one to say that only Allah SWT knows the future so the space needs to be watched.
Araz

Of course, the future course will be clear soon enough.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Pakistan has seen some decent 'English NEWS/current affairs' channels, in Dawn News Express 24/7 etc, and they have died out because of market forces in Pakistan. The demand, within Pakistan, for English language NEWS/Current affairs channels is not going to increase significantly.

Starting another 'English channel' in Pakistan, on the same business model as the previous ones, will meet the same fate. Al Jazeera, in its current shape, would be a good model to follow. It covers events and news across the globe - some of Al Jazeera's reporting on Pakistan's war against terrorism has been better than anything dished out by the Pakistani channels. A Pakistani English channel that takes on Al Jazeera in providing comprehensive coverage in the Arab world, South Asia, Europe, US and Asia would be one way to tap into revenues outside the small Pakistani base, and that is the only way a 'Pakistani English Channel' is going to become financially successful and sustainable.

 

[VCheng]

................... A Pakistani English channel that takes on Al Jazeera in providing comprehensive coverage in the Arab world, South Asia, Europe, US and Asia would be one way to tap into revenues outside the small Pakistani base, and that is the only way a 'Pakistani English Channel' is going to become financially successful and sustainable.

That is what I am suggesting; playing to the captive local audience is pointless in an international war of perceptions.

 

[Awesome]

What happens when they cross the line? Does pakistan have the guts to down their aircraft? Or force it to land? And what if they deny airspace to PIA?

We have a few missiles that can shoot them down. From that point on it will be up to the Pakistani public and whether or not the government moves on to attacking the American planes - the public movement to enforce it would ensue.

Right now we're saying just say "Thou shalt not pass!". Problem is in Pakistan we're always like "Hum yeh kaheinge, America woh kahega, phir hum yeh kareinge phir America yeh yeh kardega"...

One stern command to vacate Shamsi and they did it. You know the saying Haathi ke daanth dikhanay ke aur, and chabanay ke aur hotay hain". I doubt even America can say it has legal right to go over Pakistani airspace. Follow the standard SOP of the world. My airspace, my rule.

 

[Soumitra]

We have a few missiles that can shoot them down. From that point on it will be up to the Pakistani public and whether or not the government moves on to attacking the American planes - the public movement to enforce it would ensue.

Right now we're saying just say "Thou shalt not pass!". Problem is in Pakistan we're always like "Hum yeh kaheinge, America woh kahega, phir hum yeh kareinge phir America yeh yeh kardega"...

One stern command to vacate Shamsi and they did it. You know the saying Haathi ke daanth dikhanay ke aur, and chabanay ke aur hotay hain". I doubt even America can say it has legal right to go over Pakistani airspace. Follow the standard SOP of the world. My airspace, my rule.

I am not doubting your ability to shoot the aircraft but your willingness to do it.

Remember when your FM had said no drone attacks will be allowed and within 48 hours there were 2 -3 strikes

As for Shamsi you said that after Raymond Davis, after OBL and now. I remember reading somewhere that US had made alternate arrangements for shamsi if and when situation arrived that they had to vacate the same.

I am certainly not questioning the "My Airspace, My Rule" funda. My question is what if US says "My airspace is barred for PIA" and presurrize Karzai to say the same?

 

[araz]

Pakistan has seen some decent 'English NEWS/current affairs' channels, in Dawn News Express 24/7 etc, and they have died out because of market forces in Pakistan. The demand, within Pakistan, for English language NEWS/Current affairs channels is not going to increase significantly.

Starting another 'English channel' in Pakistan, on the same business model as the previous ones, will meet the same fate. Al Jazeera, in its current shape, would be a good model to follow. It covers events and news across the globe - some of Al Jazeera's reporting on Pakistan's war against terrorism has been better than anything dished out by the Pakistani channels. A Pakistani English channel that takes on Al Jazeera in providing comprehensive coverage in the Arab world, South Asia, Europe, US and Asia would be one way to tap into revenues outside the small Pakistani base, and that is the only way a 'Pakistani English Channel' is going to become financially successful and sustainable.

This is exactly what i pointed out. As a country we dont have enough coverage and populace to necisitate the use of an english news channel. As I explained, it needs to cover the regional news in an unbiased and clear fashion. This needs to happen ASAP as our view point will never be accepted internationally. All of this needs time for a channel to gain footage. We will however, be actively discouraged and even blocked. However it needs to be done.
Araz

 

[Rain]

The chess game is between china and america. we are but a small cog/pawn in all that. I think this attack by americans is an orchestrated policy thats being perpetuated by some in american army and CIA for last 4 or 5 years. Its not afghanistan its china and Pakistanis will never give up on china. To look at this incident in isolation would be a mistake

Like we did for USA in 80s, when USSR created problem for Pakistan through afghanistan, we said we will never give up Afghanistan and USA,

Instead of looking for other powers, we should focus on building Our country, we need Political and economic stability and a powerfully equiped Defense Forces! Till that is achieved we have to avoid big conflicts.

 

[VCheng]

By VCheng

The recent unfortunate incident between NATO and PA has raised a firestorm within Pakistan, and grave concerns internationally. ISPR has already put forth its official statement on the issue, but since the final NATO report is not yet out, it would not be productive to comment on the events of that night at this point in time. However, since chess is never won by emotions, this would be a good time to see in a coldly logical manner what iceberg lays behind the tip that surfaced only a few days ago.

From the moment an incident like this happens, there are mechanisms in place to capture a wealth of data, so comprehensively voluminous that it can take months to analyze fully. The data gathered start from the site of the event, and collection concentrates on the chain of propagation, i.e., how and where information is communicated, in addition to what is being communicated. After suitable analysis, what emerges is a flow of information, with the sentinel event in the center, and all the ripples radiating outwards, with all the nuances captured in detail.

This map displays critical nodes and junctions where certain ripples in the flow of information come together, and their timing. Specially important are holdups and delays, if any can be identified. All this information is combed over to identify suitable sites to inject carefully selected pieces of information that have the potential to utterly confuse and demoralize and indeed even cause totally opposite reactions from the opponent at a crucial chosen time.

What is then created is the "haze", the mass of confusing and conflicting information that breaks down established procedures, causing the opponent irreparable harm. Is it any wonder that the response of both the PA and the PAF was less than robust in the recent event? After all, these are regarded as two of the most professional military entities anywhere on the entire planet, where the slogan "Second to None" once held real meaning and pride, and thus the other possibility, sheer and utter incomptence, cannot be a feasible or sufficient explanation.

Pakistan would do well to attempt to analyze the full scale of its vulnerabilities exposed by the current event, for it is a sure thing that all the information collected as described above, will be available for use for any possible future events, not only in the arena that generated it, but by other parties in other theaters as well, if updated and shared.

International geopolitics has been likened to a chess game quite often with good reason, but in modern times, the level of complexity has gone up manifold, enabled by immense technological resources in such a manner that each square on the board has its own chess game while participating in the overall match as well. A novice in penury playing chess with a seasoned Grandmaster cannot count on a few pea shooters in the pocket to be protected from an utterly crushing defeat.

Therein lies an important realization if it were to be made.

The iceberg behind the tip | Pakistan Defence

This short article was written in December 2011, nearly a year and a half before Ed Snowden's disclosures.

The second and third paragraphs make for good reading still.

@araz and other TTs: Any comments in the light of later developments?

 

[VCheng]

Given the deafening silence of the TTs, perhaps @MastanKhan and @genmirajborgza786 may have a comment or two on the following paragraphs written exclusively for PDF, long before Mr, Snowden's revelations?

==============================================

From the moment an incident like this happens, there are mechanisms in place to capture a wealth of data, so comprehensively voluminous that it can take months to analyze fully. The data gathered start from the site of the event, and collection concentrates on the chain of propagation, i.e., how and where information is communicated, in addition to what is being communicated. After suitable analysis, what emerges is a flow of information, with the sentinel event in the center, and all the ripples radiating outwards, with all the nuances captured in detail.

This map displays critical nodes and junctions where certain ripples in the flow of information come together, and their timing. Specially important are holdups and delays, if any can be identified. All this information is combed over to identify suitable sites to inject carefully selected pieces of information that have the potential to utterly confuse and demoralize and indeed even cause totally opposite reactions from the opponent at a crucial chosen time.

 

[VCheng]

You said a lot without saying much. As I said before you hide behind a veil of verbosity and never carry the situation to its logical end. In fact you have raised more questions than you have answered.

@araz Would you like to comment on my "veil of verbosity" and perhaps how later events have proved it to be correct?