Iran, China gird to set up ‘sanctions-free’ partnership
The story: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to visit Tehran on March 26-27. Yi is expected to meet with top officials to discuss among other issues the pending comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. The yet to be finalized roadmap
reportedly outlines 400B USD in Chinese investment in Iran over 25 years. Yi’s visit is part of a
regional tour that also includes stops in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The state of play: Iranian and Chinese officials have for years discussed a 25-year roadmap for vastly expanded bilateral cooperation. If realized, it would provide welcomed breathing space for the beleaguered Iranian economy. However, the “comprehensive strategic partnership,” as official Iranian outlets refer to the nascent accord, is
not without its critics.
Domestically, there have been harsh reactions against the initiative in Iran. Apart from stated outrage over impending Chinese influence,
dismissed claims of the effective ceding of Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf to Beijing have sparked heated debate. Some Iranian commentators have likened the partnership document to the Treaty of Turkmenchay, which saw Iran cede territory to Tsarist Russia. The 1828 accord has a firm place in the contemporary Iranian political lexicon, and is commonly evoked by figures across the spectrum as an example of national subjugation and thus humiliation.
Internationally, the Trump administration vehemently criticized the partnership for undermining its “maximum pressure” campaign to compel Iran to renegotiate the JCPOA. Such criticisms have helped create awareness among analysts in Tehran that there is a sensitivity in Washington towards Chinese involvement in the region in general, and Iran in particular.
From the perspective of Tehran, Beijing has become a natural actor in the region, and been greatly successful in its endeavor because of its approach. For instance, while the US greatly views West Asia from a highly securitized lens—with local alliance-building partly hardwired around arms agreements—China has focused more on soft power. Avoiding siding with any one regional actor or camp, Beijing now has access to all capitals in West Asia—including Tehran. And as the inclusion of Iran in Yi’s regional tour suggests, the Chinese—in stark contrast with the US—view any approach to the region that excludes Iran as unfeasible.
The reasons for the hold-up: Iranian sources have confirmed to Amwaj.media prior reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping brought up the comprehensive strategic partnership during his visit to Tehran in 2016. Foreign Minister Zarif is said to have taken a draft of the document to China two years later, with both sides engaged in discussions since. The work on the endeavor appears to have shown nuances and seriousness.
Importantly, more than an agreement, the comprehensive strategic partnership is a roadmap. It shows that both sides have a will to work together in various fields. It can also provide a path for Iran and China to formalize the expansion of their engagement.
When asked about the hold-ups to progress, one Iranian source who spoke to Amwaj.media on condition of anonymity referred to the “political culture of both sides,” pointing to extensive intra-institutional reviews of the document in the two capitals. The source added, “Anything that is [done] quickly shows that it is not serious. China may go ahead slowly, but they are steady until they reach a certain point: then they go ahead with full steam. Just like us Iranians.”
One key element of the roadmap is the underlying political decision to establish a “sanctions-free” partnership, or perhaps better put: a “sanctions-resilient” partnership. This is a direct outcome of the overuse of US sanctions in the past decade. However, practical issues remain. For instance, the domains and dimensions of the partnership agreement must be mutually agreed in detail. Moreover, implementation of the plan is a whole other challenge on its own.
The China czar in Tehran: Former parliament speaker Ali Larijani has been playing two main roles over the past year or so. On the one hand, the pragmatic conservative acts as a balancer to some extent in Iran’s domestic politics. Loathed by hardliners, Larijani notably helped moderate President Hassan Rouhani push the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action through parliament. He is also aligned with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in his general approach to China.
On the other hand, Larijani has risen to become the effective coordinator of Iran’s China policy. Last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
appointed Larijani as his advisor. Iranian sources tell Amwaj.media that the appointment effectively means that the former parliament speaker is responsible for ensuring that the diverse range of actors in Iran that deal with China—from the oil ministry to the ministry of economic affairs and finance—act in harmony.
One Iranian source revealed to Amwaj.media that Larijani is now based in a building on the grounds of the foreign ministry in northern Tehran. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also said that in addition to the publicly announced meetings with Rouhani and Zarif, Yi will also separately meet with Larijani.
The backdrop: Yi is the most senior Chinese official to travel to Iran since the inauguration of US President Joe Biden in January. His arrival in Tehran comes as China has
reportedly stepped up its indirect imports of Iranian oil to the highest level in two years. As the US and other western countries have since the early 2000s been imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, Iran has responded by turning to trade with mainly China and other Asian countries.
This dynamic has been particularly notable on two occasions in the past decade: in 2011, when the European Union imposed an oil embargo on Iran, ending significant imports. Moreover, while Iran-Europe trade was revived following the signing of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), former US president Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the accord in May 2018 has collapsed the trade volume to pre-JCPOA levels.
It is important to consider that the orientation of the Iranian economy as well as trade patterns have undergone a transformation over the past decade. Partly driven by US sanctions, Iran has put further emphasis on domestic capacity-building to immunize the economy against external shocks. The outcome of these efforts is that Iran is no longer a major dumping ground for Chinese consumer goods. Instead, as prominent economist Bijan Khajehpour
recently noted in Amwaj.media, about 70% of Iran’s imports are now “intermediate goods, which is another indication that there is a greater reliance on domestic production and value addition.”
Mindful of the experience of revived Iran-Europe trade after the signing of the JCPOA, cooperation between Tehran and Beijing is bound to expand regardless of the outcome of the ongoing US-Iran contest.
The story: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to visit Tehran on March 26-27. Yi is expected to meet with top officials to discuss among other issues the pending comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. The yet to be finalized roadmap reportedly outlines 400B USD in...
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China says will safeguard Iran oil deal, defend Sino-Iran relations
BEIJING (Reuters) - China will make efforts to safeguard its Iran oil deal and defend legitimate interests of Sino-Iran relations, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.
Ministry spokesman Gao Feng told a news briefing that China has not receive notices of sanctions on Iranian oil from the Biden administration.
Reuters reported that Iran has “indirectly” moved record volumes of oil into China in recent months, marked as supplies from Oman, the UAE and Malaysia.
China will make efforts to safeguard its Iran oil deal and defend legitimate interests of Sino-Iran relations, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.
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