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@Armstrong
Pakistan earlier had as clearly pointed out that before Kashmir is resolved, Pakistan will not move or talk on any other issue like trade.
India clearly pointed out, that IF you are willing to discuss other issues apart from Kashmir, like trade, investment, etc, etc, India is willing. If Pakistan is not willing, we are more than happy to not discuss anything.
Now that Pakistani economy and society in general is taking a massive beating, Pakistani's agreed to start trade letting go of their previous stance that nothing can move forward as long as Kashmir is not sorted out.
Our position remains the same as it was 2 decades ago. Kashmir is non negotiable. If you want to discuss anything else, you are welcome, if not, let it be.
Pakistan has moved forward. Pakistan has already implemented about 70% of what is required for MFN already in the last 3 years.
1. Increasing the small positive list to a large positive list.
2. Changing from a large positive list to a large negative list.
3. Reducing the large negative list to a relatively smaller negative list.
The last step remains to complete the process
4. Removing the negative list altogether. This would automatically imply MFN/Non Discriminatory Market Access is granted.
Now you as a Pakistani must understand, if you want trade and investment and better security situation for your country, you must start full fledged trade. If you donot want that, by all means go back to your previous govt position that no other issue can be solved till Kashmir remains pending for you. Because Kashmir would also remain pending for you after another 70 years. For us, Kashmir is a non issue.
AGPL - Actual Ground Position Line.
I understand the popular perception in Pakistan is that India and Pakistan are both on Siachen and staring at each other. That India took some part of Siachen and Pakistan took the rest to safeguard it.
That however is not the truth.
India is sitting on the Siachen Glacier. Pakistan Army is not even on 1 sq meter of Siachen. It is sitting below Siachen near the ridge.
We have the entire Siachen Glacier.
Now, Pakistan is asking us to withdraw from Siachen. The question India asks again and again is - why?
Why should we withdraw after so much effort to capture it in the first place? Peace is not good enough of an answer.
Kargil stands out preeminantly as an example, when India withdrew from the LoC for winters under a Gentlemen's Agreement with Pakistan Army (both sides vacated in winters) and PA snuck in and created war. When the Prime Minister of Pakistan himself was not in control of the actions of his war mongering Army.
Now you may argue that that is no longer the case in Pakistan. That things in Pakistan have drastically changed since 1999. PA is under civilian authority, etc etc.
But for India, we donot care about the internal situation/politics of Pakistan. We have seen what happens if we withdraw. And so using this exact same argument the Indian Army made the GoI understand- and GoI agreed - that withdrawing from Siachen is not an option UNLESS:
Pakistan Govt and Pakistan Army agree to sign on GPS authenticated AGPL. That would mark exactly where Pakistan Army is right now and Indian Army is right now, so that they later cannot start claiming anything contrary to their own public or the world.
What it would also do is implicitly make Indian claim on Siachen legal.
Pakistan Army is reluctant to do that.
Now the ball again is in Pakistan's court. As long as they dont sign the AGPL, India is happy to sit pretty on it. This ensures that Pakistan will never get Siachen.
If Pakistan signs the AGPL, India will withdraw but they will be handing it over to India legally for all practical purposes. The benefit here however is that if India withdraws, Pakistan too can withdraw from Gyari.
Unlike India, Pakistan is finding it rather hard and expensive to maintain troop presence and related logistics over there. Let me inform you at this time that the cost for India to maintain its entire presence in Siachen is negligible. The human costs are bare minimal. India has achieved zero human loss in Siachen because of better extreme high altitude equipment by DRDO and purchases for our scientific arctic station.
As you can see Pakistan is not getting Siachen either ways, but it will save money and lives by signing AGPL. As of now, PA is reluctant to do it. The ball is squarely in their court.
Okay. In this case, its Pakistan that has the advantage.
International guidelines say that creek should be divided in the middle of the river. This is what India wants, however Pakistan claims the majority of the creek. They know its not doable, but they are using it to prolong negotiations over the years.
This would have been settled by now but for one simple fact.
The creek is moving. The river is moving eastwards - towards Indian territory. So the longer Pakistan waits, the more territory it will get even by settling using International standards.
So cant blame Pakistan here, they are being smart.
Tired. Will discuss this later.
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