TheImmortal
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the funny part is even in the era of war with iraq our air force has not what it should have been. if revolution happened ~5 year we would get our 300 f-16s and there were talks about additional 80 f-14s. it means with the infrastructure iran had back in 70s we could logistically support a fleet of 780 jets consisting 160 f-5s, 160 f-14s, 160 f-4s and 300 f-16s. now after revolution we made other airports too...
Yes a decade here or there and Iran could still have a formidable airforce, but the result is still the same. At its current rate by 2030 the Iranian airforce will be largely obsolete. So the next 20 years is critical for Iran to build up an emergency airforce (100-150 modern 4th gen fighters) while co developing its own medium and heavy fighter (bomber and interceptor).
Really Iran just needs an interceptor to defend its skies, it can always add an offensive airforce down the road.
Anyway it doesn’t really matter after the war and revolution, the republic was weak. There was still a fear of the airforce by the republic as it was considered a potential coup branch historically.
Thus priority wasn’t made to modernize as quickly. Sure there were some attempts in the 90’s. But much more could have been done back then in terms to securing ToT and engines from former Soviet Union countries. Iran really didn’t try to build a fighter till Shafagh in the 2000’s. By then Russia had stabilized post Soviet Union collapse and Western pressure was too strong.
What has Russia's benefits been for siding with US so far on Iran???
Russia has been able to sell more oil with Iran restricted. If Iran comes online at 3.5 MBPD entire OPEC has to cut back to prevent oversupply.
Russia has also secured an Iran more dependent on it because Iran has no true allies outside of the militias it controls and the decimated SAA neither of which have political clout and economic capabilities.
Russia still got backstabbed on the missile defense shield, but I think they knew all along Us would move ahead with interceptors in Europe.
Also god knows what Russia secured behind the scenes for delaying the S-300 for 10 years.
A more likely option for Iran than the Su-35S would be the Chinese FC-20E (J-10C export variant) that was revealed at the Dubai Airshow this year.
J-10 is a whole lot of meh. Iran has already checked it out and was not impressed by Chinese fighters.
Only way I see Iran getting J-10 is a FULL Tot meaning engines and everything down to the last screw that goes into that plane. In exchange Iran would place a 100 aircraft order.
If Iran goes Chinese it should secure J-31. China is desperate to export it and there are limited buyers as most serious buyers will buy F-35 and less serious buyers are completely content with either F-16s or SU-35s for their defense needs.
So I don’t see many countries lining up to buy J-31, which gives Iran an opportunity/leverage in securing SOME tech as well as a plane built largely from stolen F-35 tech.