Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[Cybernetics]

I mean why PAF doesn't consider dual engine configuration heavy class for AZM?


i know lots of PAF military fans prefer AZM to be single WS15 engine configuration of medium-heavy class.


We can't exclude WS15 for AZM at Cureent stage. What if PAF want something like F35A?

Single engine fighter is the favourite of PAF, operate at low cost and easy to maintain.

Do you ever consider that CAC might be developing a single engine stealthy fighter based on WS15 engine to Meet PLAAF's need for high-low combo for stealthy squadrons? Think about the economy of scale in this case if both PLAAF and PAF induct it?

If F35A with single engine can operate on the high sea, why AZM can't?

The only possibility to bring down the unit cost is to produce the same type as many as possible.

True, economy of scale can be the deciding factor for the success of an ambitious 5th generation fighter program. The F-35 initial research, development, test and evaluation cost $55 billion (program cost is much higher), not something most nations can afford. Though I would expect that program cost to be lower for a future 5th gen programs since F-35's suppliers have already developed 5th generation compatible components and potentially available for export (if you have access to them), lowering much of the costs. Their international competitors would have tried to catch up with their own 5th gen compatible products as well. This would lower costs for procurement. Essentially the reserach and development costs for 5th gen components have been incurred by early buyers/programs and unit prices are likely to go down as time and production increases.

It depends on how the project is structured, if the research cost is more distributed on suppliers (that cost would be re-incurred as variable costs of procurement) and other partners then an ambitious 5th gen fighter is more feasible as the development costs would appear lower. The F-35 program itself was a multinational project. The precursor X-35 was had a quarter of its funding from international partners.

Average unit cost would just be too high for an ambitious 5th gen fighter if few planes are procured. Unless it is much less ambitious than a program like F-35. It is very likely that Pakistan would have international partner(s) such as China for its development. It makes sense as it would shorten development time from experience with J-20 and J-31 programs and availability of 5th generation component suppliers, integrated in a way suited for Pakistan's needs.

 

[帅的一匹]

You still remember last year CCTV4 documentary had proved that J20 is powered by WS15 Engine? and the documentary clip was deleted immediately the day after that? What if WS15 is already completed and they try to hide the facts just like they hide the existence of J20 development until the first sortie in year 2011?

Still remember the twisted face of Robert Gates when he knew the maiden flight of J20 prototype in year 2011 during his visit to China? While He predicated that China will make J20 fly no earlier than year 2018.

CCP is smart and tricky as always.

I'm a typical conspiracist.

 

[Ultima Thule]

If they want heavy class, PAF will directly ask for J20. Why reinvent the wheel? You understand what I mean? PAF favors CAC Chengdu and they want a single engine configuration stealthy fighter of medium-heavy class. This is my guess.

Some like F35A, maybe not that fat and draggy.

we are hearing these from 5 to 6 years that CAC working single engine version of J-20 but these still hust a rumors, and as for J-20 it has a export ban from china sir @wanglaokan

 

[Armchair]

Thank you for your post. I need to answer in detail.
It is indeed less riskier to collaborate. The question is with whom? In this case China or Turkey. I know who I would collaborate with .
You have said it your self. Turkey is a much more riskier venture.Turkey is using its experience from its collaboration on the F35 project and mated it with BAE who will provide engine and other critical technologies. It needs to be noted you have 2 countries who themselves have nothing more than collaboration. China on the other hand has a finished and a semi finished product. The Turkish experience with BAE gives it Insight into engines and the EJ series is a sweet offering and I guess tempting even for PAF. However bg the time it comes on line the Chinese will have come up with a decent replacement at half the cost. In the avionics field even if the Chinese proposals do not come upto expectations collaboration with Turkey or other key providers is possible.
The stated date for the Turkish product is 2025 so you may not see the product in PAF BEFORE 2028-30 mark. This is a serious delay.
Lastly we have our own industry to protect. Why should we go for a foreign product when backed by Chinese collaboration we can come up with our own product in that time frame. The advantages of building in house are immense.
Turmey has taken key decisions based on its interests and policies. It gets access to better products and has more money and therefore choses them. The strategic reallignment at the moment does not affect Turkey. I am going out on a limb here and surmising that when it does effect Turkey the turnkey tech that might be acquired by them would prove to be pivotal for us as well. So there is a subtle game being played with backing diverse sources for eventual gain. The question is when do our interests converge? This to me is the key point and a historical change will take place at that time. However for this project both alliances have not given enough gain to converge yet.
A

Hi Araz,

Good post, thank you for replying in detail for a good discussion. I feel that to some extent it is not either / or. Your great country can collaborate with Turkey for Azm on certain subsystems. Just like in the JF-17 there are parts from half a dozen countries.

Secondly, I have this feeling (and this is just from the open source news I get so I can totally be wrong), the PAF could do a better job marketing its projects.

This is something we in the third world have to learn. You see French president and top officials pushing their products often even in exchange of "protection".

You see the UK and the US doing it.

Yet, Pakistan is new in the major power club. It hasn't quite learned these "soft skills" yet.

It wouldn't hurt Pakistan to send a high powered delegation to Turkey to try and make a major strategic deal.

You see, even Turkey is learning this game, albeit slowly. Turkish weapons exports are at an all time high, and a major buyer is Qatar. Do you think Qatar would buy anything from Turkey if it wasn't strategically supporting them?

Point is, there has to be major political / marketing push.

Just my 0.02

 

[帅的一匹]

we are hearing these from 5 to 6 years that CAC working single engine version of J-20 but these still hust a rumors, and as for J-20 it has a export ban from china sir @wanglaokan

Does the goverment of China officially claim that J20 is a no-sale?

 

[Armchair]

My speculative opinion as of this date:
At this point Azm is a twin engined delta designed by Chengdu.
Hopefully the IP will be with Pakistan this time though.

Incidentally: RUMINT suggests PAF is developing its own HMD.

(I don't have any inside sources, this is just from scanning online content).

 

[Ultima Thule]

Does the goverment of China officially claim that J20 is a no-sale?

i don't know sir but lots of chinese senior members on PDF stated that facts, that's J-20 is not for exports, and think sir J-20 is your strategic weapons against west/EU/India if China sells J-20 to Pakistan it is quite possible that J-20 tech fell into the wrong hands like west/india @wanglaokan sir

 

[araz]

Brother, AZM is twin engine or single engine?

I think PAF is inclined to work with Chengdu.

As per engine, WS15 will fit in if AZM is single engine fighter.

I think the Project is for a single engined fighter. Look Wanglaokan my concern is not regarding the product but the perception of it. Anyone making or even selling a product will take the most risk averse course with a new fighter. A couple of posters have pointed to the fact that the Block3 would be a litmus test for project Azm. If we see a Chinese engine in it then it is a given that Pr. Azm will have a Chinese engine, otherwise possibly PAF will continue collaboration with another vendor in exchange for minor parts manufacturing and depot level overhaul. Lets wait and see which direction PAF goes. One thing is certain, the Chinese industry is the least risky for PAF to continue dealing with.
A

Hi Araz,

Good post, thank you for replying in detail for a good discussion. I feel that to some extent it is not either / or. Your great country can collaborate with Turkey for Azm on certain subsystems. Just like in the JF-17 there are parts from half a dozen countries.

Secondly, I have this feeling (and this is just from the open source news I get so I can totally be wrong), the PAF could do a better job marketing its projects.

This is something we in the third world have to learn. You see French president and top officials pushing their products often even in exchange of "protection".

You see the UK and the US doing it.

Yet, Pakistan is new in the major power club. It hasn't quite learned these "soft skills" yet.

It wouldn't hurt Pakistan to send a high powered delegation to Turkey to try and make a major strategic deal.

You see, even Turkey is learning this game, albeit slowly. Turkish weapons exports are at an all time high, and a major buyer is Qatar. Do you think Qatar would buy anything from Turkey if it wasn't strategically supporting them?

Point is, there has to be major political / marketing push.

Just my 0.02

Thank you for your reply.
I agree that there will be collaboration with multiple vendors including Turkey for subsystems. However PAF will want to start working on its own for subsystems assembly and manufacturing.
I agree that our marketing has been not upto the mark. PAF should not be marketing planes but there is no other entity that can market a product like the JFT. Ouf political leadership cant stop looting the country to be able to look after its interests so dont hold your breath about that lot.
We dont have that sort of maturity of industry or political leadership to apply the tricks that US, UK, Russia and France apply. Chinese strategy seems the most productive however we dont have the material backing that the Chinese have, so there are problems.
A

 

[Armchair]

I think the Project is for a single engined fighter. Look Wanglaokan my concern is not regarding the product but the perception of it. Anyone making or even selling a product will take the most risk averse course with a new fighter. A couple of posters have pointed to the fact that the Block3 would be a litmus test for project Azm. If we see a Chinese engine in it then it is a given that Pr. Azm will have a Chinese engine, otherwise possibly PAF will continue collaboration with another vendor in exchange for minor parts manufacturing and depot level overhaul. Lets wait and see which direction PAF goes. One thing is certain, the Chinese industry is the least risky for PAF to continue dealing with.
A


Thank you for your reply.
I agree that there will be collaboration with multiple vendors including Turkey for subsystems. However PAF will want to start working on its own for subsystems assembly and manufacturing.
I agree that our marketing has been not upto the mark. PAF should not be marketing planes but there is no other entity that can market a product like the JFT. Ouf political leadership cant stop looting the country to be able to look after its interests so dont hold your breath about that lot.
We dont have that sort of maturity of industry or political leadership to apply the tricks that US, UK, Russia and France apply. Chinese strategy seems the most productive however we dont have the material backing that the Chinese have, so there are problems.
A

A modern fighter aircraft requires a huge number of subsystems. While PAF will want to build some subsystems, it can surely work with Turkey for a few of the subsystems it will already be working on for its on 5th generation. This is how industrial collaboration has always worked. Even Europeans banded together to get a whitebox AESA system that then had their own national research teams worked on for their specific country requirements. I am not sure why such common sense approaches cannot be used. Instead it seems from a distance that PAF is stuck in a binary calculus.

Marketing is the easy part. you've already done the hard part. Its simple to set up a semi-private marketing offshoot that will get its earnings based on deal generation. A cut. There are some smart, internationally competitive marketers in Pakistan. Your defense expo is run very smartly by such a company.

You also have a very enthusiastic PM who, in all probability, would be more than happy to visit Malaysia / Qatar / Turkey / Kuwait / Indonesia / Sri Lanka / whoever to offer an attractive deal with offsets, rent-to-buy, or whatever other package you make.

The world is corrupt no doubt. All countries are. Including the UK and US. But that doesn't stop us from being smart. And I know Pakistanis are very smart. My best guess is you're psychologically at a point where you've achieved the unbelievable, and now just haven't figured out what to do next.

 

[Army research]

Everyone will be really surprised if the everything goes according to plan.

 

[HRK]

there isnt any design

As per the article of Retired Group Captain S.M Hali

It was heartening to learn that the conjugal knot in which the aerospace industry and the operators of air weapons platforms have been tied is working wonders. The development of the next generation of fighter aircrafts is already proceeding beyond the drawing board. While strategies are being developed and air combat tactics are evolving, there are also many local developments occurring with the aid of civil technology. This is done to achieve optimum utilization of scarce resources, infrastructures and aerial delivery munitions. The platforms to deploy them are also being developed locally with the aid of civil technology.

https://dailytimes.com.pk/134112/aces-meet-2017/

 

[HRK]

I don't think PAF want something like FC31, but something like enlarged FC31 with single WS15 engine.

nope one of the thing we are aware about Pakistan's 5 gen jet is that It will have a ferry range of 6000 Km without Air to air refuelling so it must be a twin engine jet

 

[cabatli_53]

Hi Araz,

Good post, thank you for replying in detail for a good discussion. I feel that to some extent it is not either / or. Your great country can collaborate with Turkey for Azm on certain subsystems. Just like in the JF-17 there are parts from half a dozen countries.

Secondly, I have this feeling (and this is just from the open source news I get so I can totally be wrong), the PAF could do a better job marketing its projects.

This is something we in the third world have to learn. You see French president and top officials pushing their products often even in exchange of "protection".

You see the UK and the US doing it.

Yet, Pakistan is new in the major power club. It hasn't quite learned these "soft skills" yet.

It wouldn't hurt Pakistan to send a high powered delegation to Turkey to try and make a major strategic deal.

You see, even Turkey is learning this game, albeit slowly. Turkish weapons exports are at an all time high, and a major buyer is Qatar. Do you think Qatar would buy anything from Turkey if it wasn't strategically supporting them?

Point is, there has to be major political / marketing push.

Just my 0.02

 

[Armchair]

View attachment 467215

Thank you for this excellent photo. Looks very impressive. probably looks exactly alike to the Pakistani project. It is a shame that there is such duplication of effort and lack of cooperation.

 

[araz]

A modern fighter aircraft requires a huge number of subsystems. While PAF will want to build some subsystems, it can surely work with Turkey for a few of the subsystems it will already be working on for its on 5th generation. This is how industrial collaboration has always worked. Even Europeans banded together to get a whitebox AESA system that then had their own national research teams worked on for their specific country requirements. I am not sure why such common sense approaches cannot be used. Instead it seems from a distance that PAF is stuck in a binary calculus.

Marketing is the easy part. you've already done the hard part. Its simple to set up a semi-private marketing offshoot that will get its earnings based on deal generation. A cut. There are some smart, internationally competitive marketers in Pakistan. Your defense expo is run very smartly by such a company.

You also have a very enthusiastic PM who, in all probability, would be more than happy to visit Malaysia / Qatar / Turkey / Kuwait / Indonesia / Sri Lanka / whoever to offer an attractive deal with offsets, rent-to-buy, or whatever other package you make.

The world is corrupt no doubt. All countries are. Including the UK and US. But that doesn't stop us from being smart. And I know Pakistanis are very smart. My best guess is you're psychologically at a point where you've achieved the unbelievable, and now just haven't figured out what to do next.

Thank you for your reply. I think PAF has a policy of trying multiple competing providers for a product. There are certian issues with this policy. The Chinese are the main providers of tech and transfers. They have ready cash and offer loans on good rates. However in return they push for their products to be purchased. With increasing collaboration the equation is changing and PAF has started to look around and the Thunder has subsystems from multiple providers. However there are certain restrictions. For instance Radar and weapons integration in certain instances needs approval from the Chinese and for a few products thye are unhappy to provide the source codes. This means for instance that if wqe chose a Selex AESA we will have to chose a whole plethora of non Chinese weapons and fire control equipment as both parties will not supply the source codes for their weaponry. So PAF being stuck in a bnary calculus has certain compulsions attached to it. We are trying to locally assemble radars giving us leeway to a certain extent in mating different weapons to the radar, but whether this will be forthcoming with the AESA of Chinese origin is yet to be seen.
Rest of the post I agree with.
A