Pompeo to claim US didn’t quit Iran nuclear deal to make UN impose arms embargo

[TheImmortal]

This China you speak of... you do realize that the US was in open warfare with China in Korea. It was in a large scale proxy warfare with it in Vietnam. Chairman Mao was considered modern day Hitler by US politics. toxic, and crazy beyond belief.

responsible for tens of millions of deaths..

what happened? Nixon calculated that they needed to use China against the soviets. pulled a 180 almost immidiatly with "ping pong" diplomacy and overnight reconciled.... That reconciliation is more major then any US - Iran rapproachment.

that's how geopolitics work. enemy today, friend tomorrow. Look at Vietnam and US. They are now both on the same page against China. with the exact same communist government that gave the americans hell

in fact Iran and the US have flirted before.... Famously Iran tried to strike a grand bargain that Bush rejected after Iraq.... and the fact that Rouhani broke decades of taboo to publicly have Iranian and American government officials negotiating in a civil and respectful manner.

both sides giving and taking. Iran making statements like if all goes well, we can cooperate on other fronts.. etc.etc..

and most of all, the strategic "pivot to asia" policy. that saw Asia as being the most important geopolitical space for the US, and a retreat from the middle east...

Obama even outright said "the Saudis have to learn to share the region with Iran"

its easy to sit here now and use the hindsight of Trump (which absolutely nobody saw coming, including the American establishment) to say "oh it was all bs"..

but actions, and past history suggest otherwise. the fact that Khamenei reluctantly agreed to it was even a "I don't think it will work but lets give it a try" type approval..

Today the US sees China as its biggest threat. While it couldn't decouple from it easily because of massive trade... they have got their pearl harbor event to do so now..

there is no way business is going to be going on as usual between the two...

there is absolutely no way to predict what will happen in the next 5-10 years.. what if a democratic president came in. on his knees telling Iran you can have all the middle east on a silver platter, just don't be China's ally in exchange... you think that's a deal Iranian leaders would reject? (theoretically speaking)

All of your examples are worthless and comparing apples to oranges.

Are you comparing a poor rice patty China of the 1970’s during a massive nuclear Cold War to Iran during a economic/geopolitical rivalry between US & China today? I mean they are no where alike in comparison.

China has never openly called for elimination of Israel. Israel controls America and as long as Iran is an enemy of Israel then America is not going to be an “ally” of Iran.

One day Iran and US could have normalized relations. Even Khomeini said this and thought this 30 years ago. The thought is not crazy nor is it new.

But that day is not today, US has painted Iran a boogeyman and sells billions to Arabs in weapons and protection. So Iran allows Us the excuse of expanding influence in Middle East.

US sanctions on Iran don’t cost the US anything major especially today when oil is abundant. Iran has no cards to play at this table, it’s policy of increasing pressure has largely failed to materialize any change in US policy.

US isn’t going to magically normalize relations with Iran which would then allow Iran to build a modern war machine on top of its massive militias then slowly invade every country in the Middle East. Iran is under a massive containment policy. The nuclear deal is just an excuse to continue the containment policy.

The China theater is completely separate from Middle East theater. Iran isn’t suddenly going to be free from the shackles of US just because US has to pay attention more to China.

 

[OldTwilight]

lets build nukes and spend money on domestic project which are lacking found

 

[QWECXZ]

I did. You are just too stubborn and proud to admit relevance.

No, you didn't. It has nothing with pride. All you did was to hit around the bush without any solid or valid argument. All you did at best was to argue over non-existent differences in vocabulary (like you've done again below) and sometimes you rephrased my own sentences to present them as your own.

European countries do not trade. Their companies do, and the US remains a much more attractive market than Iran. But this is all irrelevant considering the fact that no European country at the moment supports the Trump administration vis-a-vis its Iranian policy. Your argument that they will support sanctions in the future because their companies aren't willing to trade with Iran is a ridiculous one to make.

Wow. What an amusing clown. European companies are part of the European countries. Duh! So, that's pretty much what I said again. And again, I said exactly the same thing. So, you are just rewording my own words and giving them back to me. Your whole idea of rewording what I said and saying it back to me is beyond ridiculous.

You have a superficial perceptions of how complex states like Russia with competing institutions and ideologies operate. Russia adopted a pro-western foreign policy stance in those days because some currents in Russia prefer so. Similarly as in Iran.

Yeah. Russian analysts have superficial perceptions of their own country as well.

Russia has become tremendously more hawkish ever since. If you can't see this change, it must mean that you are either blind or stupid. In your case, it could be both.

That's because Washington has sanctioned Russia's energy sector and raised tariffs on Russia's aluminum exports after the annexation of the Crimea. It has nothing to do with shifting away from the West after Putin took the office. If Washing promises Moscow to lift their sanctions on Russia, Russia will vote in favor of any resolution that Washington wants to be passed in the UNSC. Pretty much the same thing happened with the S300 deal. US, Israel and Saudi Arabia promised Russia to compensate for the 700 million dollar loss and Russia delayed it for like what, 9 years? And by the time we were given S300-PMU2 it wasn't a top-notch system in the market anymore.

You can't compensate for every geopolitical and strategic interest of global powers such as Russia and China.

China is really staying out of this. You don't see much Chinese involvement in any of this. Do you?

Here you go:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/27/middleeast/yemen-iran-resolution-russia-veto-intl/index.html

Oh! So you can provide proof when you have one, which makes me wonder why your other arguments went without proofs. Fair enough. Anyway, time will tell. Iran so badly needs up-to-date jet fighters. Let's see if Iran will receive any in the next 2-3 years.

 

[QWECXZ]

Fair assessment and one I'm inclined to agree with given all that has gone down.

In light of all that you said though, what direction should Iran take then?

Honestly, there's not much that Iran can do now to change what has happened in short time. If we start enriching uranium at our maximum capacity, we will be at least 7 months away from returning to where we were before the JCPOA. And at least a year and a half from having enough uranium for a gun-type fission bomb. And when I say Iran uses its maximum capacity, I am relying on what was said before that Iran can produce 60 IR-6 machines per day. We need to improve our air defense and officially increase our missile range meanwhile.

The problem is that the world may start to see Iran as an imminent threat. Had we done all of this right after Trump pulled out of the deal, people would've blamed Trump for it because it was seen as a direct consequence of Trump's decision. But now it's too late. Trump and Pompeo will use our decisions as an evidence that they were right about Iran and people are too forgetful to remember what happened more than 2 years ago. So, there's always the chance that not only they reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, but declare a no-fly zone over Iran for a military conflict. Now most of our critical military and nuclear infrastructure are well underground, but our civilian infrastructure can be hit hard. But our internal situation isn't very stable either. Ahmadinejad had a policy of visiting the poor and giving them economic benefits. Rouhani cancelled all those policies and the economic gap in Iran has increased. So, things can get pretty nasty for us.

On the other hand, Trump in his second term will be even more unpredictable because he won't care about getting elected again. So, Iran should find effective means of targeting Trump's personal and family business in the US and globally. But that can't be done during a military conflict. Iran should first survive the military conflict, then hope for discord in Washington and if everything went as planned and Trump had been weakened, then take care of him and teach him a very expensive lesson.

I think covid-19 is a bliss for us. If covid-19 remains a problem for a year or two, we will have a good opportunity to recover partially. Our military industry has continued to progress since 7 years ago fortunately.

 

[mohsen]

Tldr Iran gets sanctioned even more and people are salty on it?

There is no more sanctions which US could apply. in reality, US sanctions are loosing their effect.

 

[Beny Karachun]

There is no more sanctions which US could apply. in reality, US sanctions are loosing their effect.

Then what is all the talk about in this thread?

 

[Mithridates]

Then what is all the talk about in this thread?

arm embargoes.

 

[mohsen]

Then what is all the talk about in this thread?

Politics.

arm embargoes.

arms export

 

[Philosopher]

arms export

This is a part that alot of people are missing. They are focusing on what Iran can import and not the countless hardware that it will be able to sell!