Pompeo to claim US didn’t quit Iran nuclear deal to make UN impose arms embargo

[TheImmortal]

US propaganda is going all out anti-china. both democratic and republican (but most fiercly reppublican)

this covid 19 is a pearl harbor scenario. there is going to be huge geopolitical ramifications. there may very will be a new cold war between China and the US after this.

Iran will be a huge winner in this.. there are senior establishment figures like Albright and even Zionists like Feinstein openly calling for trump to approve Irans IMF loan.

Obama made a deal with Iran that just about anyone but trump would have kept.

this means the US establishment realizes that Iran is a key country in their future rivalry with China. and were on the road to reconciliation before that orange idiot showed up..

I highly doubt China and Russia are going to sell Iran out anymore on the UN front.. the world has changed

Iran and US were on “Road to reconciliation”? Bro what are you smoking.

Even under Obama US was not honoring nuclear deal and Iran got zero Additional economic benefits to the deal other than oil exports. The deal was already crappy to begin with and Iran was only staying in it until the major provisions expired.

Iran is a pariah and radioactive, countries won’t even risk selling it medical supplies and you think Russia or China will risk their economy for tiny arms deals?

75% of US Congress hates Iran with a passion. The other 25% dislike Iran. So there hasn’t been a shift in Iranian policy, it’s the same old good cop (democrat) bad cop (Republican) routine. Just like last 30 years.

And the China and US beef is “not personal just business”. Both countries need each other because the trade between them reaches hundreds of billions a year not to mention a massive portion of US manufacturing is based in China.

So you have this warped view that somehow Iran is winning this battle, it is not. The pressure won’t stop and the West nor the East is willing to risk itself over Iran.

 

[mohsen]

Which means they have left the agreement. Forgetting the fact they have openly stated they have left, there is nothing signed in the JCPOA. Where is their proof they are still in the deal?

JCPOA or Trump's public words are worthless, UNSC resolution is a legal document and mentions US as a party.

It's like you inherit a house and in front of everyone say you don't want it, still till you don't sign the paper you are the owner.

 

[QWECXZ]

Iran and US were on “Road to reconciliation”? Bro what are you smoking.

When I read some gullible Iranians say that Iran and the US were on the road to reconciliation because Iran fell into a trap called the JCPOA I want to bang my head against the wall.

 

[SubWater]

In short, I highly doubt that the UN embargo on arms deals with Iran would ever be terminated without a regime change in Iran.

the time will pass sooner than we think and both world and USA have more difficulties than we can imagine in next six month.
I am agree with @Surenas in this issue.

 

[QWECXZ]

the time will pass sooner than we think and both world and USA have more difficulties than we can imagine in next six month.
I am agree with @Surenas in this issue.

That'll be because of covid-19, not because of what we are discussing.

 

[zartosht]

Iran and US were on “Road to reconciliation”? Bro what are you smoking.

Even under Obama US was not honoring nuclear deal and Iran got zero Additional economic benefits to the deal other than oil exports. The deal was already crappy to begin with and Iran was only staying in it until the major provisions expired.

Iran is a pariah and radioactive, countries won’t even risk selling it medical supplies and you think Russia or China will risk their economy for tiny arms deals?

75% of US Congress hates Iran with a passion. The other 25% dislike Iran. So there hasn’t been a shift in Iranian policy, it’s the same old good cop (democrat) bad cop (Republican) routine. Just like last 30 years.

And the China and US beef is “not personal just business”. Both countries need each other because the trade between them reaches hundreds of billions a year not to mention a massive portion of US manufacturing is based in China.

So you have this warped view that somehow Iran is winning this battle, it is not. The pressure won’t stop and the West nor the East is willing to risk itself over Iran.

This China you speak of... you do realize that the US was in open warfare with China in Korea. It was in a large scale proxy warfare with it in Vietnam. Chairman Mao was considered modern day Hitler by US politics. toxic, and crazy beyond belief.

responsible for tens of millions of deaths..

what happened? Nixon calculated that they needed to use China against the soviets. pulled a 180 almost immidiatly with "ping pong" diplomacy and overnight reconciled.... That reconciliation is more major then any US - Iran rapproachment.

that's how geopolitics work. enemy today, friend tomorrow. Look at Vietnam and US. They are now both on the same page against China. with the exact same communist government that gave the americans hell

in fact Iran and the US have flirted before.... Famously Iran tried to strike a grand bargain that Bush rejected after Iraq.... and the fact that Rouhani broke decades of taboo to publicly have Iranian and American government officials negotiating in a civil and respectful manner.

both sides giving and taking. Iran making statements like if all goes well, we can cooperate on other fronts.. etc.etc..

and most of all, the strategic "pivot to asia" policy. that saw Asia as being the most important geopolitical space for the US, and a retreat from the middle east...

Obama even outright said "the Saudis have to learn to share the region with Iran"

its easy to sit here now and use the hindsight of Trump (which absolutely nobody saw coming, including the American establishment) to say "oh it was all bs"..

but actions, and past history suggest otherwise. the fact that Khamenei reluctantly agreed to it was even a "I don't think it will work but lets give it a try" type approval..

Today the US sees China as its biggest threat. While it couldn't decouple from it easily because of massive trade... they have got their pearl harbor event to do so now..

there is no way business is going to be going on as usual between the two...

there is absolutely no way to predict what will happen in the next 5-10 years.. what if a democratic president came in. on his knees telling Iran you can have all the middle east on a silver platter, just don't be China's ally in exchange... you think that's a deal Iranian leaders would reject? (theoretically speaking)

 

[Mithridates]

is there any possibility for us to make a fake deal with US, give noting at all just shake hand. give trump and his supporters the deal they want and after we get new fighter jets just get rid of that deal. democrats would raise some voices against it but no one in US cares about them and trump and his supporters are bunch of idiots drinking bleach to fight corona virus. win-win.

 

[Surenas]

And how is that different from persuading other countries not to trade with Iran? The outcome seems completely the same to me. You just rephrased what I said I think.

Persuasion is not convincing. The latter suggests moral understanding/agreement. That is not the case over here. The fact to the matter is that the US is basically threatening companies/countries from doing business with Iran by means of sanctions and market exclusion.

Well, what do you think has changed since 2009 that the geopolitical outlook is different now? If anything, Russia's geopolitical outlook prefers the US to focus on Iran as a threat than Russia. So, they'd rather do something that tensions between Iran and the US stay the same. This is good for their economy as well.

Are you even aware of the geopolitical landscape back in those days? Read about Medvedev's era in Russian politics and the reason why Russia under his leadership and outreach to the West threw its back behind the sanctions. Otherwise, there has not been more countries that have directly suffered from UNSC resolutions than Russia when it comes to the arms embargo that the council inflicted upon Iran.

You are giving a superficial explanation of Russian geopolitical and strategic interests. There is a reason why Russia is currently supporting Iran with its diplomatic weight in the United Nations. And this support is far from cynical.

Really? If you say so. I think if your hands are empty, you have no chance at diplomacy. And our hands are empty at the moment. Our economy has not recovered from US 2018 sanctions yet. It was expected to recover in 2020, but covid-19 will obviously delay our recovery. We don't have enough enriched uranium reserves to have a hand for diplomacy and we are not producing any HALEU at the moment either.

To build further on your analogy: our hands are not empty. It is just that Iran still has not unclenched its fists.

Then correct me please. We got lucky that the covid-19 brought down the oil prices otherwise there would've been a huge economic gap between us and our regional rivals. The US and Europe are quite happy with the status quo and the clock is ticking in their favor. Is Iran happy with the status quo?

No. Iran was playing the long-game before the JCPOA. Right now Iran is just trying to weather the storm and keep itself safe.

What? Europe and the US are far from happy with the status quo. The latter has failed to bring Iran under submission through its sanction regime, is struggling to roll back Iranian influence in the region and is increasingly seeing an arms embargo coming at its ends, which will tremendously boost Iran's conventional military capabilities. And all this while Iran continues to technologically advance its missile capabilities, and is developing more advanced centrifuges which will shorter Iran's break out time by a large margin.

Basically, Iran is setting up a nuclear and military infrastructure that it could address once and if it assesses that nuclear weapons are beneficial to its interests. This prospect means that the West will eventually be pressured to act again. You see, and while I am not intending to downplay economics, but economic sanctions are never a means to an end. It is nothing more than an instrument which states could deploy as a means of pressure. They will fail in achieving their stated goals if used solely as a strategy, which we are seeing with Iran right now. There is a reason why the military establishment in both the US and Israel opposed abandoning the JCPOA. It will move Iran to do exactly what the US/Israel wants to prevent in the long-term.

JCPOA or Trump's public words are worthless, UNSC resolution is a legal document and mentions US as a party.

It's like you inherit a house and in front of everyone say you don't want it, still till you don't sign the paper you are the owner.

Some of you guys apparently don't understand legality.

The Trump administration did not only inherit a nuclear agreement. They factually withdrew from the JCPOA by public exclamation and consequently have stopped to be a participant in the deal. There is no contract to sign off on. That is not how this works.

 

[QWECXZ]

Persuasion is not convincing. The latter suggests moral understanding/agreement. That is not the case over here. The fact to the matter is that the US is basically threatening companies/countries from doing business with Iran by means of sanctions and market exclusion.

No, it doesn't. Don't make up things to justify your false reasoning. And the outcome is exactly the same as I said, i.e. countries avoiding trade with Iran. That's all that matters.

Are you even aware of the geopolitical landscape back in those days? Read about Medvedev's era in Russian politics and the reason why Russia under his leadership and outreach to the West threw its back behind the sanctions. Otherwise, there has not been more countries that have directly suffered from UNSC resolutions than Russia when it comes to the arms embargo that the council inflicted upon Iran.

You do realize that many Russians and non-Russians believe that Medvedev was in fact Putin's sock puppet to stay in power. Don't you?
You really believe that Russia is "suffering" from the arms embargo on Iran?! You think the US can't compensate for 1-5 billions of dollars of arms sales to Iran in its trade with Russia? Really?

You are giving a superficial explanation of Russian geopolitical and strategic interests. There is a reason why Russia is currently supporting Iran with its diplomatic weight in the United Nations. And this support is far from cynical.

How is Russia supporting Iran in the United Nations? Elaborate please.

To build further on your analogy: our hands are not empty. It is just that Iran still has not unclenched its fists.

Our hands are as empty as it can be for diplomacy. We are doing OK militarily but we do not have any game changing weapons against the US. That's a fact. And we probably won't have any, any time soon.

What? Europe and the US are far from happy with the status quo. The latter has failed to bring Iran under submission through its sanction regime, is struggling to roll back Iranian influence in the region and is increasingly seeing an arms embargo coming at its ends, which will tremendously boost Iran's conventional military capabilities. And all this while Iran continues to technologically advance its missile capabilities, and is developing more advanced centrifuges which will shorter Iran's break out time by a large margin.

You can develop as many types of centrifuges as you like, before you inject UF6 into them and have hundreds of them running in chains, it's nothing better than a fancy, expensive science project. We have only 360 kilograms of 3.5% enriched uranium. That's nothing. I have done all the calculations about why Iran's nuclear program has been stopped on PDF before. You can check them if you want.

Meanwhile, our economy is becoming smaller year by year. We have experienced a negative GDP growth for 3 consecutive years. Our economy has shrunk by about 15% since US pulled out of the deal. For the first time in the last 50 years, we witnessed unprecedented violence in protests in Iran in last year's October. All this time, the US and Europe were doing just as well as before and they would've continued to do so if it weren't for COVID-19. The US, her allies and Russia have replaced Iran's oil in the market. In layman terms, the money that was supposed to go to our pocket is now going to their pockets. And you think they are far from happy?

Basically, Iran is setting up a nuclear and military infrastructure that it could address once and if it assesses that nuclear weapons are beneficial to its interests. This prospect means that the West will eventually be pressured to act again. You see, and while I am not intending to downplay economics, but economic sanctions are never a means to an end. It is nothing more than an instrument which states could deploy as a means of pressure. They will fail in achieving their states goals if used solely as a strategy, which we are seeing with Iran. There is a reason why the military establishment in both the US and Israel opposed abandoning the JCPOA. It will move Iran to do exactly what the US/Israel wants to prevent in the long-term.

A nuclear industry? With 360 kilograms of 3.5% enriched uranium? LMAO.

Some of you guys apparently don't understand legality.

The Trump administration did not only inherit a nuclear agreement. They factually withdrew from the JCPOA by public exclamation and consequently have stopped to be a participant in the deal. There is no contract to sign off on. That is not how this works.

Sorry we are not legal experts like you. lol

 

[Surenas]

No, it doesn't. Don't make up things to justify your false reasoning. And the outcome is exactly the same as I said, i.e. countries avoiding trade with Iran. That's all that matters.

That is not all what matters. Look at the initial discussion. You were arguing that the US is likely going to convince the other permanent members of the UNSC to again support placing sanctions on Iran, basing that highly pessimistic conclusion on two flawed premises:

1) The other countries, including Russia and China, have supported sanctions against Iran before.
2) The other countries are respecting US' sanctions regime.

The matter of convincing is important because if, as already stated before, the US wants to draw support from the other permanent members, especially the European ones, it needs to convince these states of the benefits of the snapback mechanism and the subsequent dissolution of the JCPOA.

Premise 1) is flawed because the period in which a completely different US administration managed to convince the other members to place sanctions on Iran was entirely different than the current geopolitical landscape.

Premise 2) is a ridiculous argument to make because conforming to US sanctions does not follow any understanding or agreement. Basically, if the countries/companies could trade with Iran, they would do so. This is important because US' diplomatic attempts to kill the deal and place actions on Iran needs external backing. But considering the fact that the Trump administration has adopted a isolationist position with regards to the nuclear agreement and Iranian policy in general, their arguments and efforts will likely fall on deaf ears.

You do realize that many Russians and non-Russians believe that Medvedev was in fact Putin's sock puppet to stay in power. Don't you?

Spare me your flawed ad populum argument. Read the serious works.

You really believe that Russia is "suffering" from the arms embargo on Iran?! You think the US can't compensate for 1-5 billions of dollars of arms sales to Iran in its trade with Russia? Really?

Of course it is. Iran would be a significant export market for Russia to sell its weaponry. The US can't compensate for every geopolitical and strategic interest of states like Russia and China.

How is Russia supporting Iran in the United Nations? Elaborate please.

Most resolutions detrimental to Iran's strategic interests are vetoed by Russia. Not even China provides this recent unwavering support.

Our hands are as empty as it can be for diplomacy. We are doing OK militarily but we do not have any game changing weapons against the US. That's a fact. And we probably won't have any, any time soon.

Spare me your pessimistic and melodramatic outlook and energy. Iran has enough cards to play with. The situation will change dramatically in the next few years.

 

[QWECXZ]

That is not all what matters. Look at the initial discussion. You were arguing that the US is likely going to convince the other permanent members of the UNSC to again support placing sanctions on Iran, basing that highly pessimistic conclusion on two flawed premises:

1) The other countries, including Russia and China, have supported sanctions on Iran before.
2) The other countries are respecting US' sanctions regime.

The matter of convincing is important because if, as already stated before, the US wants to draw support from the other permanent members, especially the European ones, it needs to convince these states of the benefits of the snapback mechanism and the subsequent dissolution of the JCPOA.

Premise 1) is flawed because the period in which a completely different US administration managed to convince the other members to place sanctions on Iran was entirely different than the current geopolitical landscape.

Premise 2) is a ridiculous argument to make because conforming to US sanctions does not follow any understanding or agreement. Basically, if the countries/companies could trade with Iran, they would do so. This is important because US' diplomatic attempts to kill the deal and place actions on Iran needs external backing. But considering the fact that the Trump administration has adopted a isolationist position with regards to the nuclear agreement and Iranian policy in general, their arguments and efforts will likely fall on deaf ears.

You haven't come up with an argument for why things have changed. As long as you don't have a valid argument for why premise 1 is false, it remains intact.

And your second argument is laughable to say the least. European countries have stopped trading with Iran. Whether they are in agreement with the US actions or not does not change the outcome that Iran has become isolated and our economy is shrinking.

Spare me your flawed ad populum argument. Read the serious works.

Just because you're not bright enough to understand Russian politics, it doesn't make it 'ad populum'. Putin was the Prime Minister of Russia back then. So, he did hold political power. It's not like he was powerless back then and now he has suddenly become all powerful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandemocracy

Of course it is. Iran would be a significant export market for Russia to sell its weaponry.

Iran's largest arms import from Russia was S300-PMU1 which at the time cost around 700 million dollars. That's peanuts for the US. US can easily outplay Iran when it comes to compensating for Russia's economic loss with regard to arms sales to Iran.

Most resolutions detrimental to Iran's strategic interests are vetoed by Russia. Not even China provides this recent unwavering support.

Now you are entering an area where I doubt your sanity. Name the resolutions that Russia has vetoed in favor of Iran. If you want to talk about Syria, Russia has her own interests in Syria, including military bases near the Mediterranean Sea. It has nothing to do with Iran.

Spare me your pessimistic and melodramatic outlook and energy. Iran has enough cards to play with.

Spare me your childish nonsense altogether please.

 

[Surenas]

You haven't come up with an argument for why things have changed. As long as you don't have a valid argument for why premise 1 is false, it remains intact.

I did. You are just too stubborn and proud to admit relevance.

And your second argument is laughable to say the least. European countries have stopped trading with Iran. Whether they are in agreement with the US actions or not does not change the outcome that Iran has become isolated and our economy is shrinking.

European countries do not trade. Their companies do, and the US remains a much more attractive market than Iran. But this is all irrelevant considering the fact that no European country at the moment supports the Trump administration vis-a-vis its Iranian policy. Your argument that they will support sanctions in the future because their companies aren't willing to trade with Iran is a ridiculous one to make.

Just because you're not bright enough to understand Russian politics, it doesn't make it 'ad populum'. Putin was the Prime Minister of Russia back then. So, he did hold political power. It's not like he was powerless back then and now he has suddenly become all powerful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandemocracy

You have a superficial perceptions of how complex states like Russia with competing institutions and ideologies operate. Russia adopted a pro-western foreign policy stance in those days because some currents in Russia prefer so. Similarly as in Iran.

Russia has become tremendously more hawkish ever since. If you can't see this change, it must mean that you are either blind or stupid. In your case, it could be both.

Iran's largest arms import from Russia was S300-PMU1 which at the time cost around 700 million dollars. That's peanuts for the US. US can easily outplay Iran when it comes to compensating for Russia's economic loss with regard to arms sales to Iran.

You can't compensate for every geopolitical and strategic interest of global powers such as Russia and China.

Now you are entering an area where I doubt your sanity. Name the resolutions that Russia has vetoed in favor of Iran. If you want to talk about Syria, Russia has her own interests in Syria, including military bases near the Mediterranean Sea. It has nothing to do with Iran.

Here you go:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/27/middleeast/yemen-iran-resolution-russia-veto-intl/index.html

Spare me your childish nonsense altogether please.

You are just full with hot air. It may sound nice, but you really don't know what you are talking about.

 

[Beny Karachun]

Tldr Iran gets sanctioned even more and people are salty on it?

 

[Blue In Green]

Tldr Iran gets sanctioned even more and people are salty on it?

Oh please SOD off you no good busybody, you don't even give two-shits about Iran or Iranians, so why bother with throwing in your useless statement none of us care for.

You haven't come up with an argument for why things have changed. As long as you don't have a valid argument for why premise 1 is false, it remains intact.

And your second argument is laughable to say the least. European countries have stopped trading with Iran. Whether they are in agreement with the US actions or not does not change the outcome that Iran has become isolated and our economy is shrinking.


Just because you're not bright enough to understand Russian politics, it doesn't make it 'ad populum'. Putin was the Prime Minister of Russia back then. So, he did hold political power. It's not like he was powerless back then and now he has suddenly become all powerful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandemocracy


Iran's largest arms import from Russia was S300-PMU1 which at the time cost around 700 million dollars. That's peanuts for the US. US can easily outplay Iran when it comes to compensating for Russia's economic loss with regard to arms sales to Iran.


Now you are entering an area where I doubt your sanity. Name the resolutions that Russia has vetoed in favor of Iran. If you want to talk about Syria, Russia has her own interests in Syria, including military bases near the Mediterranean Sea. It has nothing to do with Iran.


Spare me your childish nonsense altogether please.

Fair assessment and one I'm inclined to agree with given all that has gone down.

In light of all that you said though, what direction should Iran take then?

 

[Beny Karachun]

Oh please SOD off you no good busybody, you don't even give two-shits about Iran or Iranians, so why bother with throwing in your useless statement none of us care for.

Yea you're correct lmao